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Model 1-1-5 User Guide - The Macaulay Land Use Research Institute

1. 00000 Parameters Model being built using the following parameters Version modell 1 5 Path example fearlus modell 1 5 modell 1 5 Swarm example swarm 2 2 User Real eg Effective eg Machine Name example OS SunOS 5 8 Generic_117350 38 Architecture sun4u Date 2007 05 18 17 47 37 Run ID 83090CD5 464DD8A8 00001BO0A Seed for simulation 321654789 lt Swarm gt Separate seed for use after initialisation lt Not Used gt Random Number Generator MT19937gen Termination year 151 Unbounded time NO Environment type Planar Moore Neighbourhood radius Number of land uses 12 ALL Clumping of biophysical properties SymbolSwappingClumper nCycles 100 Number of horizontal cells in the Environment 40 Number of vertical cells in the Environment 40 Area of one cell 0 65 Georeference xllcorner O yllcorner 0 Number of horizontal cells in one Parcel 2 Number of vertical cells in one Parcel 2 Break even yield threshold 35 Farm scale fixed costs 5 Farm scale fixed costs file manual CBR fsfc Allow Estate Growth YES Always use proximity in CBR biophysical comparisons NO Auction First price sealed bid Number of X initial Parcels for Managers 2 Number of Y initial Parcels for Managers 2 Land use pollution distribution normal Land use pollution mean 20 variance 10
2. 102 00000 NeighbourhoodDetail Cell at 36 31 added to neighbour list of cell at 37 32 00000 NeighbourhoodDetail Next search co ordina 37 31 00000 NeighbourhoodDetail Next search co ordina 38 31 O0000 NeighbourhoodDetail Next search co ordina 36 32 00000 NeighbourhoodDetail Cell at 36 32 added to neighbour list of cell at 37 32 00000 NeighbourhoodDetail Next search co ordinate 37 32 00000 NeighbourhoodDetail Cell at 37 32 already belongs to neighbour list of cell at 37 32 or they are one and the same parcel not added Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 O0000 NeighbourhoodDetail Next search co ordina O0000 NeighbourhoodDetail Nex search co ordina O0000 NeighbourhoodDetail Cell at 36 33 adde O0000 NeighbourhoodDetail Next search co ordina O0000 NeighbourhoodDetail Cell at 37 33 adde O0000 NeighbourhoodDetail Next search co ordina O0000 NeighbourhoodDetail Next search co ordina 8 2 38 Parameters 103 te 38 32 te 36 33 d to neighbour list of cell at 37 32 te 37 33 d to neighbour list of cell at 37 32 ter 38 33 tet 36 34 Details of the parameters of the run and some metadata The format is designed to be readable by spreadsheet software
3. Table 6 The Advice Strategy classes available for CBRAdviceLandManagers to use 4 2 1 9 Land Manager class CBRDelayedChangeLandManager CBRDelayedChangeLandManagers use the same algorithm as CBRAdviceLandManager with the exception that Land Uses are not changed until a number of consecutive Years of Aspirations not being met have gone by The number of consecutive Years to use Years to Change in the UML diagram in Figure 15 is set from a uniform distribution in the Subpopulation using the parameters changeDelayMin and changeDelayMax Mean Estate Profil per unit area Profit Aspiration amp Mean Net Approval froarn Managers not Disapproved of gt Social Aspiration Years Dissatisfied O Years Dissatisfied 1 Years Dissatisfied lt Years to Changel Keep the same Land Use on all Parcels Choose a Land Use foreach Parcel using the Case Base with advice or imitativ e non imitative Strategy Figure 15 UML Activity Diagram showing the decision making algorithm of the CBRDelayedChangeLandManager 4 2 2 Income generation Land Managers in modell 1 5 survive by generating sufficient Income to prevent them from becoming bankrupt Every Land Manager starts the simulation with a certain amount of Wealth in their account for which a range of values is specified at the Subpopulation level initialAccountDist From then on in general there are three potential sources of Income a Lan
4. o 9 Ga Ga G bo to eu bpopulation tion tion Creat Creat Creati Loading strat Loading strategy type probabilities from file Experimenters ss RandomStrategy aboveP 0 belowNonImitP 1 belowImitP 0 initialP 1 RandomCopyingStrategy aboveP 0 belowNonImitP 0 belowImitP 1 initialP 0 HabitStrategy aboveP 1 belowNonImitP 0 belowImitP 0 initialP 0 tegy type probabilities from file Specialists ss RandomStrategy aboveP 0 belowNonImitP 0 belowImitP 0 initialP 1 Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 bpopul bpopulationCreation Loading strategy type probabilities from file Imitators ss 106 bpopulationCreationDetail EccentricSpecialistStrategy aboveP 0 belowNonImitP 1 belowImitP 0 initialP w tionCreationDetail NoStrategy aboveP 1 belowNonImitP 0 belowImitP 1 initialP 0 Sa SubpopulationCreationDetail HabitStrategy aboveP 1 belowNonImitP 0 belowImitP 0 initialP 0 Ses SubpopulationCreationDetail NoStrategy aboveP 0 belowNonImitP 1 belowImitP 0 initialP 0 SSS SubpopulationCreationDetail YieldAverageWeightedTemporalCopyingStrategy aboveP 0 belowNonImitP 0 belowImitP 1 initialP 0 QoS SS
5. Land Managers using this Strategy use the same Land Use chosen at random on all Land Parcels they own whose context means they use this Strategy each Year 9 2 3 Grid File Use the Land Use specified as being allocated to the Land Parcel in the grid file passed in to FEARLUS with layer name FEARLUS LandUseID Year yyy where yyy is the current Year If Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 111 no such layer exists containing data for the Land Parcel s representative Land Cell then the simulation will abort 9 2 4 Random Choose a Land Use at random 10 Events This section provides details on how the occurrence of each class of Event is determined 10 1 10 3 10 4 BadHarvestEvent Compute the sum of the Yield per unit area over all Land Parcels owned Compute the average Yield per unit area by dividing the sum by the number of Land Parcels owned If the average computed is greater than the specified threshold then the Event has occurred DisapprovalProportionEvent Compute the number of neighbours Compute the total amount of disapproval received from neighbours Note that this is gross disapproval not disapproval approval If the total divided by the number of neighbours i e the proportion of neighbours disapproving is more than or equal to the threshold then the Event has occurred HighWealthEvent If the Account of the Land Manager is more than or equal to the
6. Much as for the Climate verbosity this shows the state of the Economy each Year 00003 Economy New economy Bull LowxXch 8 2 12 FarmScaleFixedCosts If a Farm Scale Fixed Cost file 1s used then each Year the value read from the file will be shown The messages are not shown if the Farm Scale Fixed Costs are become constant Example 00008 FarmScaleFixedCosts Farm scale fixed costs set to 67 00009 FarmScaleFixedCosts Farm scale fixed costs set to 43 Warning Failed to read next farm scale fixed costs from file manual CBR fsfc Closing file Farm scale fixed costs will remain constant at 43 00010 FarmScaleFixedCosts Farm scale fixed costs set to 43 8 2 13 Government Messages will depend on the class of Government used The following are examples from ParcelRewardingGovernment 00010 Government Not issuing reward because environment pollution 1587 12 is more than or equal to threshold 1550 00011 Government Issuing reward to all land managers as environment pollution 1513 5 is less than threshold 1550 00012 Government Not issuing reward because environment pollution 1695 67 is more than or equal to threshold 1550 8 2 14 GovernmentDetail More detailed messages about the Government that again will be class specific The following might be seen in a particular Year with ParcelRewardingGovernment 00043 GovernmentDetail Issuing reward 100 to land manager 4 00043 GovernmentDeta
7. incomerPriceMax incomerPriceMean incomerPriceVar landOfferDist landOfferMin landOfferMax landOfferMean landOfferVar offFarmIncomeMeanMin offFarmiIncomeMeanMax offFarmIncomeVarMin offFarmIncomeVarMax pSellUpDist pSellUpMin pSellUpMax 51 Refer to Table 9 Distribution from which to set the in migrant Land Parcel Offer Price of member Land Managers This parameter should either be normal truncated normal or uniform Minimum in migrant Land Parcel Offer Price floating point This parameter should only appear if incomerPriceDlst is uniform or truncated normal Maximum in migrant Land Parcel Offer Price floating point This parameter should only appear if incomerPriceDist is uniform or truncated normal Mean in migrant Land Parcel Offer Price floating point This parameter should only appear if incomerPriceDist is normal or truncated normal In migrant Land Parcel Offer Price variance floating point This parameter should only appear if incomerPriceDist is normal or truncated normal Distribution from which to set the Land Offer Threshold of member Land Managers This parameter should either be normal truncated normal or uniform Minimum Land Offer Threshold floating point This parameter should only appear if landOfferDist is uniform or truncated normal Maximum Land
8. jasss soc surrey ac uk 9 4 4 html Parker D C Brown D G Polhill J G Deadman P J and Manson S M in press Illustrating a new conceptual design pattern for agent based models of land use via five case studies In Lopez Paredes A and Hernandez I Agent Based Modelling in Natural Resource Management Pearson Education Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 114 Parker D C Polhill J G and Gotts N M 2006 Do land markets matter Preliminary results from the ELMM model The Association of American Geographers Meeting Perspectives on Geographic Complexity 2 Institutions Markets and Policy Chicago Illinois 7 11 March 2006 Pignotti E Edwards P Preece A Polhill G and Gotts N 2005 Semantic support for computational land use modelling Proceedings of the Fifth IEEE International Symposium on Cluster Computing and Grid Cardiff Wales 9 12 May 2005 Polhill J G and Gotts N M 2007 Evaluating a prototype self description feature in an agent based model of land use change In Amblard F ed nterdisciplinary Approaches to the Simulation of Social Phenomena Fourth Conference of the European Social Simulation Association Toulouse France 10 14 September 2007 pp 711 718 Polhill J G Gotts N M and Law A N R 2001 Imitative versus nonimitative strategies in a land use simulation Cybernetics and Systems 32 285 307 Polhill J G Gotts N M an
9. Budget budget The budget to use for the awards Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 39 4 3 3 3 Government class CappedTargetActivityGovernment Description Issues a fixed reward for any Land Use the coverage of which in the policy zone is less than a target with cap on the reward that a Land Manager can receive in a Year Parameter Parameter description The zone in which to issue rewards default everywhere LandUse label target For each awardable Land Use gives the target coverage Reward reward The reward per unit area to be given for any awardable Land Use when the coverage is less than the target subject to the cap The upper limit on any one Land Manager s total reward for the Year 4 3 3 4 Government class CappedBudgetTargetActivityGovernment Description Issues a fixed reward for any Land Use the coverage of which in the policy zone is less than a target with a fixed budget that must get spent subject to a cap Parameter description The zone in which to issue rewards default everywhere LandUse label target For each awardable Land Use gives the target coverage Reward reward The reward share per unit area to be given for any awardable Land Use when the coverage is less than the target In fact this parameter is irrelevant Since the rewards are the same for each Land Use all that matters is the number of rewards and the area of the Parcel Budget budget The budget
10. Land Managers acquires more Land Parcels a somewhat unrealistic feature addressed in some of the other CBR Land Manager classes If they do not meet both aspiration thresholds they set up a Decision Process for each of the Land Parcels they own The following gives a brief overview of this Decision Process which is subsequently explained in more detail x Land Uses na Profit Pe Estimated Social Acceptability Figure 8 Estimation of the social acceptability and the profit that different Land Uses provide in a certain Land Parcel The Decision Process begins with an estimation of the social acceptability and the profit that each of the possible Land Uses will give to the Land Manager in the considered Land Parcel This Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 18 estimation process which is based on the deciding Land Manager s past experience will produce a map that is sketched in Figure 8 Once the Land Manager has an estimate of both dimensions of utility for each Land Use in the Land Parcel under consideration it is time to select one of them Land Managers would like to maximise both dimensions of utility but this will not be possible in the general case so very often they will have to compromise The following text details the Decision Process which is also summarised in Figure 9 Estate Profit gt Profit Aspiration amp Net Approval gt Social Aspiration Keep the sam
11. Output an ontology each year b Optional Run the model in batch rather than GUI mode C Optional Show the conditions of use and terminate C lt class gt Optional Top level class for a framework ontology D lt verbosity gt Optional Debugging output g lt grid user ID gt Ignored Reserved for future use G lt grid service URL gt URL for the FEARLUS G grid service H lt model desc gt Reserved for future use j lt java path gt Path to FEARLUS G client This is a Swarm argument n lt RNG class gt Class to use for random number generation Specify a file containing a set of observer displays you want in GUI mode o lt file gt Recommended Optional Name ofa file to save an ontology to p lt file gt Typically Specify a parameter file for the model required File name to save report to if R option specified Specify the report configuration file to generate the desired reports Ignored _ This is a Swarm argument X integer TIME Optional Legacy way to set the seed specify an integer TIME or DEFAULT Deprecated DEFAULT Z integer TIME Specify a second seed to use after initialisation help Optional Gives a short help list Depending on your shell the option is not recommended as the is a wildcard character in many shells in which case the output when using is most likely to be a rather unhelpful no match Table 2 A list of the c
12. Stra d Aa A A tegyDe was 0 StrategqyDe was 10 4426 tegyDe was 0 StrategyDe was 0 StrategyDe was 0 00001 StrategyDetail Average was 6 66468 1 8 2 44 d p ae e a daz yos u an 0 tail carr tail Earl 0 tail 0 tail 0 of of of is of is of is of Score of Land NaN and is now 1 Score of Land 10 4426 and is now 18 3581 2 9 17907 Land 17907 and is now 26 2737 3 8 75789 Land 75789 and is now 34 1892 4 8 54731 Land now 4 Land now 0 Land now 6 Land aA Use 1 Oat Non organic incremented by 10 4426 0 4426 1 10 4426 Use 1 Oat Non organic incremented by 7 91554 Use 1 Oat Non organic incremented by 7 91554 Use 1 Oat Non organic incremented by 7 91554 Use 6 Oat Non organic incremented by 40 6713 0 6713 1 40 6713 Use 2 Barley Non organic incremented by 0 722105 722105 1 0 722105 Use 4 Beef Non organic incremented by 6 66468 66468 1 6 66468 Use 4 Beef Non organic incremented by 22 2365 66468 and is now 28 9012 2 14 4506 SubpopulationCreation and SubpopulationC reationDetail Information on the Subpopulations as they are loaded from a file The following is an example from a run using the SubPopulation class Su bpop bpop bpop bpop bpopulation Creat tion Creat tion Creat
13. e g Climate Economy Decision 1s assigned a value that determines its particular verbosity level minimum level of verbosity at which they will be printed These values are specified in a file named fearlus verby which in this way determines the priority hierarchy of different types of messages Table 1 To include a verbosity message in the debugging output regardless of its particular verbosity level give message_ name to the D flag and to prevent a verbosity message give the D flag message name For example to include all messages at level 10 or less except InitialLandUseAllocations and Clumping give D 10 InitialLandUseAllocations Clumping make sure there is no space in the argument to the D flag The GUI messages will not be included at any verbosity level To force the inclusion of GUI and GUIKey for example use the command line argument D GUI GUIKey Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 Verbosity message Level Verbosity message Level 250 550 1000 1000 10 Clumping 0 10000 100000 10 100 10000 500 10 1000 1000 1000 10000 20 l 20 100 1000 CU o a GUKey SS d 1000 GUINeighbourhoodDetail 10 500 500 Table 1 List of verbosity messages and their verbosity level set in fearlus verby The GUI verbosity messages cannot be enabled using an integer argument to the D option unless you give them a verbosity level in fearlus verby or your own verbo
14. excerpt of output for one Year from 388 to 388 From 917 to 1705 00005 LandManagerChange Updated land manager of parcel 1576 39 17 from 917 to 1707 00005 LandManagerChange Updated land manager of parcel 1577 00005 LandManagerChange Updated land manager of parcel 1578 ct ct ct ct ct ct ooo M9 OM E e 00005 LandManagerChange Updated land manager of parcel 1579 39 18 from 921 to 1708 00005 LandManagerChange Updated land manager of parcel 1580 39 19 from 922 to 12 00005 LandManagerChange Updated land manager of parcel 1581 39 20 from 12 to 12 8 2 25 LandManagerCreation Details of new Land Managers created during initialisation and the Parcels they have been assigned to A 00000 LandManagerCreation Initial subpopulation for land parcel 261 at 26 0 taken from grid file manual grd cell 26 0 O0000 LandManagerCreation Initial land manager ID for land parcel 261 at 26 0 taken from grid file manual grd cell 26 0 O0000 LandManagerCreation Assigned land parcel 261 at 26 0 to land manager ID 61 of subpopulation ID 1 The above shows output when a grid file is used Below when assignment is done without a grid file O0000 LandManagerCreation Created land manager ID 95 O0000 LandManagerCreation Assigned land parcel 369 at 36 16 to land manager ID 95 00000 LandManagerCreation Assigned land parcel 370 at 36 17 to land
15. truncated normal Sell up probability variance floating point This parameter should only appear if landOfferDist is normal or truncated normal You should now add parameters for the class of Subpopulation you wish to use as per the subsections Qend below 5 1 4 1 SubPopulation and DelayedC hangeS ubPopulation classes Defines Subpopulation parameters for LandManager PositiveLandManager and DelayedChangeLandManager classes For the DelayedChangeSubPopulation class additional parameters should be specified as detailed in section 5 1 4 2 strategySelectorFile memorySizeMin memorySizeMax neighbourWeightDist neighbourWeightMin neighbourWeightMax neighbourWeightMean neighbourWeightVar imitateProbDist imitateProbMin imitateProbMax imitateProbMean imitateProbVar The name of a file to get the strategies for this Subpopulation from The strategy selector file format is given later The minimum number of Years a member of this Subpopulation will be able to recall Climate Economy Yield and Land Use data for The maximum number of Years Distribution from which to set the neighbourhood weighting of member Land Managers This parameter should either be normal truncated normal or uniform Minimum neighbourhood weighting floating point This parameter should only appear if neighbourWeightDist is uniform or truncated normal Maximum n
16. 2008 04 18 33 length of time a Land Manager may spend in the simulation a Land Manager is better thought of as representing a farming business or family than an individual farmer Bidding Strategy class Configuration Description options DiscountingBiddingStrategy rateDist The bid price bmp of Land Manager m for rateMin Parcel p is given by the following formula rateMax rateMean w P w y _ T rateVar D a windowMin lm windowMax IpwgtMin where lIpwgtMin lt wm lt lpwgtMax represents IpwgtMax how much Manager m is concerned with the Parcels Yield or their own profit when making bids y is the Yield of Parcel p T is the Break Even Threshold r is the Land Manager s interest rate or perceived risk sampled from rateDist normal or uniform and Pm is the mean profit the Manager has made over the last n Years where windowMin lt n lt windowMax F ixedP riceB iddingS trategy priceDist The bid price is a fixed price Each Land priceMin Manager has their own fixed constant price priceMax offered taken from the Subpopulation priceMean distribution priceDist normal or uniform priceVar WealthMultipleBiddingStrategy wealthcDist The bid price is a constant multiple of the wealthcMin Land Manager s account The coefficient is wealthcMax taken from the Subpopulation distribution wealthcMean wealthcDist normal or uniform wealthcVar YieldMultipleBiddingStrat
17. 4 2 Government class BudgetClusterActivityGovernment Land Managers are awarded for putting awardable Land Uses on Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 40 Parcels where this will contribute to increasing the contiguous area devoted to a Land Use Land Managers are given a reward for using an awardable Land Use on any Parcel they own and then extra if the awardable Land Use is used by a neighbouring Manager on a neighbouring Parcel Rewards are made as shares of a fixed budget that must be spent if any reward is made Parameter Parameter description The zone in which to issue rewards default everywhere LandUse label List of awardable Land Uses The reward share per unit area to be given for any awardable Land Use on a Parcel owned by the Manager NbrReward nbr The reward share per unit area to be given for any awardable Land Use er on a neighbouring Parcel using the same Land Use as the Manager s 4 3 4 3 Government class CappedClusterActivityGovernment Description Land Managers are awarded for putting awardable Land Uses on Parcels where this will contribute to increasing the contiguous area devoted to a Land Use Land Managers are given a reward for using an awardable Land Use on any Parcel they own and then extra if the awardable Land Use is used by a neighbouring Manager on a neighbouring Parcel There is a cap on the total reward any one Land Manager may receive in a Year Parameter descrip
18. Event LandParcelSoldEvent has not happened to land manager 412 O0002 Learning Event BadHarvestEvent has happened to land manager 412 O0002 Learning Land manager 412 increased profit salience by 0 135393 to 6 79688 8 2 34 LookupTable Confirms locations of lookup tables read note that five dashes replace the Year of the verbosity message because at this stage the Environment has not been created aaa LookupTable Loading lookup table tree from file yield tree Sa LookupTable Loading lookup table tree from file income tree Heese LookupTable Populating lookup table from file yield data ate ge LookupTable Lookup table file yield data contains names SSeS LookupTable Populating lookup table from file income data Sas LookupTable Lookup table file income data contains names 8 2 35 LookupTableLookups Information on values set and accessed in the Lookup Tables This generates a large amount of output Note that the names of symbols are converted to numeric references during lookups and unfortunately the latter are rather unhelpfully shown as demonstrated in the excerpts below B LookupTableLookups Setting the value for a lookup table LowVar Cool LCA V Steep Lamb Organic position 1196 value 8 40118 00001 LookupTableLookups Looking up the value for a lookup table 3 4 10 14 18 22 position 1027 value 9 44183 8 2 36 Neighbourhood Shows how neighbourhoods are calculated for each Cell Output is arranged s
19. Gotts N M Polhill J G and Adam W A 2003 Simulation and analysis in agent based modelling of land use change First Conference of the European Social Simulation Association September 18 21 2003 Groningen The Netherlands http www uni koblenz de kgt ESSA ESSA1 gotts_polhill adam rev pdf Gotts N M Polhill J G and Law A N R 2003 Aspiration levels in a land use simulation Cybernetics and Systems 34 663 683 Gotts N M Polhill J G Law A N R and Izquierdo L R 2003 Dynamics of imitation in a land use simulation In Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Imitation in Animals and Artefacts University of Wales Aberystwyth 7 11 April 2003 pp 39 46 Izquierdo L R Gotts N M and Polhill J G 2003 FEARLUS W An agent based model of river basin land use and water management In Dyst M Schot P and de Jong K eds Framing Land Use Dynamics International Conference 16 18 April 2003 Faculty of Geographical Sciences Utrecht University Utrecht The Netherlands pp 163 165 Izquierdo L R Gotts N M and Polhill J G 2004 Case based reasoning social dilemmas and a new equilibrium concept Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 7 3 1 http jasss soc surrey ac uk 7 3 1 html Izquierdo L R Polhill J G and Gotts N M 2006 Is your model susceptible to floating point errors Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 9 4 4 http
20. Land Managers owning them boolean Show the Land Parcels coloured by the Strategy or decision mode used to choose their Land Use boolean Show the Land Parcels in shades of grey according to the relative number of times their Land Uses have been changed black least white most boolean Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 showPriceRankRaster 67 Show the Land Parcels in shades of grey according to the relative number of times their Land Managers have been changed black least white most boolean Show the Land Parcels in shades of grey according to the relative most recent price black cheapest white most expensive yellow not sold yet showAveragePriceRankRaster boolean showTotalPriceRankRaster showParcelBoundaries showManagerBoundaries showStrategyGraph showPollutionGraph showUseMarketGraph showParcelsOwnedGraph showYieldGraph showPopulationGraph showUseGraph showProfitabilityGraph showSuitabilityGraph showWealthGraph Show the Land Parcels in shades of grey according to the relative average price at which they have been sold black cheapest white most expensive yellow not sold yet boolean Show the Land Parcels in shades of grey according to the relative total price of all times they have been sold black cheapest white most expensive boolean Show the boundaries between the Land Parcels boolean Show the boundaries between
21. Meaning it would be unsuitable for an initial strategy Memory Does the strategy use the Land Manager s memory Soc Phys Does an imitative strategy use a social or physical neighbourhood Optimum Does the strategy choose a Land Use with the highest score If not Land Uses are selected at random weighted by their score Deterministic Does the optimising strategy deal with two or more equally maximum high scores by choosing consistently or at random Nbr wet Does an imitative strategy use the Land Manager s neighbourhood weighting property used Y Random if alternative exists in neighbourhood Random oo ee LU appears in neighbourhood c g O DB aR LALI TE Pe CECEN E EH ys 7 T v Y 4 2 1 2 Land Manager class DelayedChangeLandManager Land Managers belonging to the DelayedChangeLandManager decide Land Uses in much the same way as LandManager and PositiveLandManager with the exception that Managers will delay changing the Land Use of a Land Parcel if their Aspiration Threshold is not met on that Parcel for a given number of consecutive Years referred to in Figure 7 as the manager s Years to Change This number of Years is drawn from a uniform distribution set by parameters changeDelayMin changeDelayMax from the Subpopulation Note that the Manager remembers how long each Parcel has had unsatisfactory Yield Land Use decisions being made on a Parcel by
22. Minimum Maximum 4 Maximum 2 8 Maximum 0 5 10 Maximum 0 Maximum Minimum Minimum 4 Minimum uniform uniform 10 0 ParcelRewardingGovernment Information on transfers of Land Parcels mm 00005 ParcelTransfers Land parcels up for sale 00005 ParcelTransfers Land 00005 ParcelTransfers Land 00005 ParcelTransfers Land 00005 ParcelTransfers Land 00005 ParcelTransfers Land 00005 ParcelTransfers Land 114 874 gt 0 QO0005 ParcelTransfers Land 43 2032 gt 0 mm 00005 ParcelTransfers land manager 00005 Parcel 00005 ParcelTransfers Productivists 00005 Parcel land manager 00005 Parcel 00005 Parcel land manager 00005 Parcel 00005 Parcel land manager 00005 Parcel 00005 ParcelTransfers Conservationists 8 2 40 mm Transfers Transfers mm Transfers mm Transfers mm Transfers mm Transfers mm Transfers Transferred land parcel 212 at 45 at price 15 8997 Adding land parcel 212 at 20 manager manager manager manager manager manager manager manager 41 has negative account 44 174 41 puts parcel 141 at 14 0 up 41 puts parcel 181 at 18 0 up 41 puts parcel 161 at 16 0 up 41 puts parcel 182 at 18 2 up 41 puts parcel 162 at 16 2 up so puts all their sale sale sale sale sale for TOT for for for 105 loses no land parcels this year since account 169 loses no land parcels thi
23. N M 2005 Introducing land markets to an agent based model of land use change A design In Troitzsch K G ed Representing Social Reality Pre Proceedings of the Third Conference of the European Social Simulation Association Koblenz September 5 9 2005 Koblenz Verlag Dietmar Folbach pp 150 157 Polhill J G Parker D C and Gotts N M 2008 Effects of land markets on competition between innovators and imitators in land use Results from FEARLUS ELMM In Edmonds B Hernandez Iglesias C and Troitzsch K G eds Social Simulation Technologies Advances and New Discoveries IGI Global pp 81 97 Polhill J G Pignotti E Gotts N M Edwards P and Preece A 2007 A semantic grid service for experimentation with an agent based model of land use change Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10 2 2 http jasss soc surrey ac uk 10 2 2 html Simon H 1955 A behavioral model of rational choice The Quarterly Journal of Economics LXIX February pp 99 118 Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 115 Watson I 1997 Applying Case Based Reasoning Techniques for Enterprise Systems Morgan Kaufman Publishers Appendix 1 Troubleshooting Error messages in FEARLUS are not always very helpful particularly when they originate in Swarm library method calls Here a few common problems are given with their corresponding messages Example message Invalid entry in
24. Offer Threshold floating point This parameter should only appear if landOfferDist is uniform or truncated normal Mean Land Offer Threshold floating point This parameter should only appear if landOfferDist is normal or truncated normal Land Offer Threshold variance floating point This parameter should only appear if landOfferDist is normal or truncated normal Minimum mean Off Farm Income floating point Maximum mean Off Farm Income floating point Minimum Off Farm Income variance floating point Maximum Off Farm Income variance floating point Land Managers Off Farm Income distribution is normal with constant mean and variance sampled from the above uniform distributions at the time they are created Distribution from which to set the sell up probability of member Land Managers This parameter should either be normal truncated normal or uniform Minimum sell up probability floating point This parameter should only appear if landOfferDist is uniform or truncated normal Maximum sell up probability floating point This parameter should only appear if landOfferDist is uniform or truncated normal Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 pSellUpMean pSellUpVar 32 Mean sell up probability floating point This parameter should only appear if landOfferDist is normal or
25. This is the only time when a parameter file is not required The program will create a framework ontology from all descendants of the C option argument and save it to the file named in the O option argument For the C option argument SwarmObject is the recommended value Unfortunately this includes in the ontology several Swarm library classes rather than only FEARLUS classes You could give FearlusThing as the C option argument Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 but the ontology will then not include the Environment class If you want the ontology to have a particular URI the default is the name of the file then you can specify this with the U option To get a model state ontology and model ontology give the O and possibly U option on the command line but not the C option In batch mode an ontology will be written at the end of the run describing the state of the system unless you give the A option in which case an ontology is created each year In GUI mode you will see an extra button on the control panel labelled Ontology Press this button any time you want an ontology to be saved describing the state of the system Due to the complexities involved in describing certain data structures you will find the description is not complete in all cases e g some instance variables are missing or do not have a value As indicated above this is a prototype feature in FEAR
26. Y x Neighbourhood Weighting to the score for LU e Increment the counter for LU e For each Land Use divide its score by its counter This Strategy is similar to Yield Weighted Temporal Copying Strategy but it averages out the scores according to the number of times the Land Use appears in the social neighbourhood during the period of time examined 9 1 6 Yield Random Optimum Temporal Copying Choose a Land Use at random from those with equal maximum score as calculated for the Yield Average Weighted Temporal Copying Strategy above 9 1 7 Yield Weighted Copying Choose a Land Use at random weighted by a score calculated as follows So this and the other Yield strategy classes should really be named Income instead This is a legacy of earlier versions of FEARLUS retained for backward compatibility where the ontological differences between Yield and Income were not so pronounced Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 110 e Initialise scores for all Land Uses to 0 e Loop through each Land Parcel LPS owned by the Land Manager LM making the decision e Get the last Income Y and Land Use LU of LPS e Add Y to the score for LU e Loop through all Land Parcels LPN in the social neighbourhood of LM e Get the last Income Y and Land Use LU of LPN e Add Y x Neighbourhood Weighting to the score for LU 9 1 8 Yield Weighted Temporal Copying Choose a Land Use at random weighted by a score calculated as foll
27. a parameter file of the begin Wend style In this case the offending parameter is envXSizeTypo emboldened in a model file See section 5 1 1 No end in a parameter file of the begin end style No begin in a parameter file of the begin end style String entry for numeric parameter in a parameter file of the begin end style xxx event raised for error LoadError xxx function loadA Aborted file 8rce 20060612 swarm src simtools ObjectLoader m line 32 Could not initialize class loader for Parameter src 20060612 swarm src simtools ObjectLoader m 209 envXSizeTypo xxx execution terminating due to error if ved nat SrC 20060612 swarm srcec defobj Symbol m 187 Error c _raisekFvent Abort xxx event raised for error LoadError xxx function loadA Aborted file 8rce 20060612 swarm src simtools ObjectLoader m line 32 Could not initialize class loader for Parameter if taf sif enf SYC 200606L2 swarm src simcools Ob ect Loader m 16 7 getChar2 xxx execution terminating due to error e SrC 20060612 swarm srcec defobj Symbol m 187 Error c _raiseEvent Abort xxx event raised for error LoadError xxx function loadA Aborted file e S3SrC 20060612 swarm srcec simtools ObjectLoader m line 32 Could not initialize class loader for Parameter src 20060612 swarm src simtools ObjectLoader m 147 getWord xxx executi
28. an appropriate case for each Land Use The following sections explain the representation of cases their storage their retaining their retrieval and their use to derive estimates 4 2 1 3 1 1 Representation of cases One case represents the experience lived by the case holder at a certain Year Y on a certain Land Parcel Thus a case comprises The Year Y where the experience occurred The perceived state of the world in Year Y which consists of some of the conditions that interacted with the decision i e the particular Land Use applied in determining the outcome of that decision i e the profit and the social acceptability the Land Manager got Specifically the perceived state of the world consists of the following 3 descriptors o The Land Parcel o The Climate o The Economy The decision the Land Use applied to the Land Parcel at Year Y The outcome of applying the selected Land Use on the Land Parcel under consideration This consists of the profit and the net Social Approval i e the overall balance between Social Approval and Disapproval from Neighbours that the Land Manager got in Year Y 4 2 1 3 1 2 Case storage The Episodic Memory is organized in different compartments each of which stores all the cases pertaining to a particular Land Use The compartments are not arranged in any particular order they form an unsorted set In contrast cases within each compartment are stored in ordered lists with the
29. at 30 30 drawing a line between 294 and 295 at 28 28 00013 GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 295 at 28 29 is a neighbour of 316 at 30 30 00013 GUINeighbourhoodDetail but it has already been visited 00013 GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 295 at 29 28 is a neighbour of 316 at 30 30 00013 GUINeighbourhoodDetail and not visited already 00013 GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 295 at 29 28 drawing neighbours of 316 at 30 30 00013 GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 295 at 28 28 is a neighbour of 316 at 30 30 00013 GUINeighbourhoodDetail but it has already been visited 00013 GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 294 at 29 27 is not a neighbour of 316 at 30 30 drawing a line between 294 and 295 at 29 28 00013 GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 295 at 29 29 is a neighbour of 316 at 30 30 00013 GUINeighbourhoodDetail and not visited already 8 2 21 Harvest Details of the harvest process each Year including all information on how income is generated from the Parcels The following shows the messages that might be generated for one Land Manager 00093 Harvest Economy of scale for land use 3 Barley Organic on land parcel 242 at 24 2 used by land manager 71 with total area 10 4 for this land use 1 00093 Harvest Land manager 71 harvesting yield 12 9431 with income 127 329 from land parcel 242 at 24 2 with break even threshold 78 Account 19532 4 wil
30. calculate the profit they would have made in the initialisation Year in case it is needed but the profit is not accumulated to their Account If the user has requested a second seed to use after the initialisation schedule with the Z option then set the random generator to use that seed Activate the main schedule Main schedule Increment the Year counter Each cycle in the model is intended to represent one year The Land Allocator updates the Subpopulation probabilities if a sequence of Subpopulation probabilities has been specified in a file Land Managers each choose a Land Use for the Land Parcels they own Determine the Climate and save it to a file if this was specified Determine the Economy and save it to a file if this was specified Determine the Pollution from each Land Parcel Calculate the Yield from each Land Parcel Conduct Government actions if specified Land Managers accrue Wealth from their Land Parcels and Off farm Income If the Land Managers belong to a class that implements the approval model then determine Approvals and Disapprovals Land Managers learn from their experience e g CBR Managers update their Case Base Land Managers with negative Wealth or in the case of PositiveLandManagers non positive Wealth put all their Land Parcels up for sale by informing the Land Allocator The Land Allocator notifies Land Managers neighbouring each Land Parcel for sale Neighbouring Land Managers generate
31. first cases in these lists representing the experiences that are most fresh in the Land Manager s memory Thus at the end of a Year the cases derived from experience of the current Year are stored at the head of the appropriate lists in random order In each compartment of the Episodic Memory immediately behind the current Year s cases there are the other cases corresponding to previous experiences in an order such that the most recently used cases 1 e those cases that have been the best matching case in earlier decisions appear first this ordering sequence is detailed in 4 2 1 3 1 4 4 2 1 3 1 3 Case retention The size of the Land Managers Episodic Memory is unlimited for CBRSocialLandManagers some other classes have limited Episodic Memory size see below Every case experienced by the Land Manager in every Land Parcel owned is stored in their Episodic Memory 4 2 1 3 1 4 Case retrieval When CBRSocialLandManagers do not meet one of their Aspiration Thresholds they decide which Land Use to apply in each Land Parcel they own independently They consider the most recently acquired Land Parcels first This may be potentially relevant because every time CBRSocialLandManagers set up a Decision Process for a Land Parcel they retrieve cases from their Episodic Memory and this retrieval process can modify the order in which cases are kept in their Memory The following describes how Land Managers come up with the map sketched in F
32. from earlier Years To this end Subpopulations specify a range of values for the Memory of Land Managers memorySizeMin and memorySizeMax which specifies the maximum number of Years Climate Economy Land Use and Yield data the Land Manager may examine when choosing the Land Use Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 16 Land Use scoring basis description thereafter all Parcels N T well D D m LU as per grid file with layer for given year Retain LU on Parcel aie For when a particular decision ri algorithm element won t be Strategy name Imitative Memory Phys Soc Optimum EccentricS pecialistS trategy FickleS trategy GridF ileS trategy HabitS trategy NoStrategy RandomCopyingS trategy RandomS trategy SimpleCopyingS trategy SimpleP hysicalC opyingS trategy Y Times LU appears in neighbourhood Y N Y ESEN years average nome Yiv Y s Y n Y inya none PVieeWeghedCopyngstatewy Y Y N s N iyers VieeightedTemporaCopyrgstaeoy Y Y Y S N Y iny none Table 4 A list of strategies other than Case Based Reasoning described in section 4 2 1 2 available in modell 1 5 their properties and a brief description LU refers to Land Use The column headings indicate the following mitative Can the strategy be used as an imitative strategy Historical Does the strategy use any data from previous years
33. have not Disapproved of them Advice is given by returning the best matching Case from the Case Base for the Land Use and state of the world supplied by the Land Manager asking for Advice The algorithm is given in Figure 14 Various Advice Strategies are available and these are listed in Table 6 Land Managers are assigned their Advice Strategy from the Subpopulation they belong to using the adviceStrategy parameter Mean Estate Profit per unit area gt Profit Aspiration amp Maan Net Approval from Managers not Disapproved of gt Social Aspiration Keep the same Land Use on all Parcels fRand 0 lt X lt 1 lt Imitative Probability For each Parcel Use imitative Strategy EOE amp Use non imitative Strategy Rand 0 lt X lt 1 lt CBR Probability gt Expected State Parcel Last Climate Last Economy Foreach Land Use Best Case Case Base best match for Expected State Land Use No Case found ae l Advice List Advice Strategy neighbour list Advisar Remove first item from Advice List Advice List empty Gest Case Advisor Case Base best match for Expected State Land Use No Case found Estimated Utility Land Use Profit Outcome Best Case Profit Salience Social Outcome Best Case Social Salience Estimated Utility Land Use Profit Aspiration Profit Salience Social Aspiration Social Salience Land Use of Parcel Random selection among those with maxi
34. if not specified here The only reason to specify the colour is for consistency across a number of runs landManagerClass Which class to use to represent the Land Managers This parameter depends on the class of Subpopulation to use initialAccountDist Distribution from which to set the initial account of member Land Managers This parameter should either be normal truncated normal or uniform initialAccountMin Minimum initial account floating point This parameter should only appear if initialAccountDist uniform or truncated normal initialAccountMax Maximum initial account floating point This parameter should only appear if initialAccountDist uniform or truncated normal initialAccountMean Mean initial account floating point This parameter should only appear if initialAccountDist normal or truncated normal initialAccountVar Initial account variance floating point This parameter should only appear if initialAccountDist normal or truncated normal biddingStrategyClass Class to use for the Bidding Strategy of member Land Managers Refer to Table 8 biddingStrategyConfig Configuration string for the Bidding Strategy Refer to Table 8 selectionStrategyClass Class to use for the Land Parcel Selection Strategy of member Land Managers Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 incomerPriceDist incomerPriceMin
35. in migrant Bid for Parcel Z vickrey Decide winner and price using Vickrey Decide winner and price using first price Aeae Eda sealed bid auction Figure 17 UML Activity Diagram summarising some of the transactions and parameters involved in the transfer of a Land Parcel from one Land Manager to another Once the Land Allocator has received all the bids from existing Land Managers for a Land Parcel it generates an in migrant bid from a randomly chosen Subpopulation using that Subpopulation s In migrant Offer Price Distribution Note that if a large Estate is for sale and the socialNeighbourSales parameter is 0 then all Parcels in the middle of the Estate 1 e those not physically neighbouring a Parcel owned by another Land Manager will be sold to in migrant Land Managers The winning bid is then the largest bid made or if two or more bids have equal maximum offer price then a uniform random choice is made among them The Land Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 35 Manager making the winning bid is then the new owner of the Land Parcel If a Vickrey auction has been specified then the price of the exchange is that of the second highest bidder If only one bid 1s made in a Vickrey auction or if a first price sealed bid auction is specified by setting the vickrey parameter to 0 then the winning bid price is the price of the exchange The process is summarised in Figure 17 though this is no
36. in the model and have no Biophysical Characteristics Land Use or owning Land Manager Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 4 1 1 2 Topology and Neighbourhood Function of the set of Land Cells Land Cells are arranged on a rectangular grid envXSize x envYSize The Topology of the grid specifies what happens at the edges of the grid and the Neighbourhood Function specifies more generally the size and shape of Land Cells neighbourhoods Topology and Neighbourhood Function together determine which Land Cells in the grid have which other Land Cells as spatial neighbours environment Type The Topology of the grid may be Planar Toroidal or Cylindrical In a Toroidal Topology edge cells at the North of the grid wrap around to those at the South and vice versa as do those at the East and West In a Cylindrical Topology wrap around occurs only in the North South direction HorizontalCylindrical or only in the East West direction VerticalCylindrical Figure 2 shows the topological effect of wrapping around In a Planar Topology no wrap around of edge Cells takes place Figure 2 Wrapping around a grid of cells in one dimension to form a cylinder and in two dimensions to form a torus The Neighbourhood Function of the grid may be von Neumann squares sharing an edge are neighbours or Moore squares sharing an edge or a corner are neighbours the two standard neighbourhoods used in grids of squares a
37. incomeT ableF ile Income data showStrategyGraph 1 T Dp KEX clumping pmibolS wap showParcelsOwnedGraph 1 T envSize 0 show eldGraph 1 T Start env Size 0 show seb arketGraph 1 T climateF ile sUddencharn showPollutioniraph 1 T SE climateChangePrabFile climate CBR showPopulationGraph 1 T Mest economyFile lt NULL gt showLseGraph 1 T economChangeProbF ile economy CB save landLseFile lt NULL gt 2 l l T Quit nLandlse i 1 alllses 1 T 1 Ontology useClimateFile T Figure 18 The three windows that pop up on starting modell 1 5 Note that the Ontology button only appears on the ProcCtrl window leftmost shown if the O command line option is given 11 11 11 11 11 E 3 4 a 4 SE a E D m ag E G g GO Gl G un E TU ae cn ape T La 2 a 5 m op O 2 oc gt Gl Gi D 0 oD Sp gt When you are happy with the settings click the Start or Next buttons on the ProcCtrl display to start the simulation The Stop button on the ProcCtrl display temporarily stops the simulation You can then start it again with the Start or Next button the latter advancing one time step and then stopping or exit the application with the Quit button The Save button saves the position of some of the displays on the screen which can be useful to save you having to move the displays all the time The saved window positions should be automatically
38. land use incremented by 17 2487 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 520 at 12 39 with land use 6 21 0123 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 31 5485 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 519 at 12 38 with land use 1 11 4743 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 17 2279 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Adding scores for yield of land parcels belonging to land manager 118 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 476 at 11 35 with land use 4 28 6623 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 43 0344 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 475 at 11 34 with land use 3 0 203348 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 0 305313 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 436 at 10 35 with land use 6 10 4426 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 15 6788 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 435 at 10 34 with land use 1 7 91554 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 11 8846 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Adding scores for yield of land parcels belonging to land manager 99 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 398 at 9 37 with land use 5 25 1875 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 37 8173 Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 94 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 397 at 9 36 with land use 6 11 4743 0 years ago Score of la
39. making algorithm of Land Managers of the CBRStrategyLandManager class This algorithm replaces the Choose a Land Use for the Parcel using the Case Base steps in the algorithm shown in Figure 10 for the CBRSocialParcelLandManager class 4 2 1 6 Land Manager class CBRNetApprovalLandManager The CBRNetApprovalLandManager class builds on the CBRStrategyLandManager class by dealing with the issue that the amount of possible Approval a Land Manager can get changes with Estate size Another issue that Land Managers may not care about the Approval or Disapproval they get from other Managers they Disapprove of is also catered for When considering whether the Social Aspiration is met Land Managers of this class compute the mean net Approval Approval Disapproval from the set of Managers they have not Disapproved of The UML diagram is given below in Figure 12 Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 2 Mean Net Approval from Managers not Disapproved of gt Social Aspiration For each Parcel in i e Parcel Net Profit lt Profit Aspiration Choose a Land Use forthe Parcel using the Case Base or imitative non imitative Strategy Keep the same Land Use on the Parcel For each Parcel Choose a Land Use forthe Parcel using the Case Base or imitative non imitative Strategy Figure 12 UML Activity Diagram showing the decision making algorithm of the CBRNetApprovalLandManager class 4 2 1 7 Land Manager
40. must be less than half of both envXSize and envYSize This is not validated but violating this constraint will result in invalid neighbourhoods being computed yieldTreeLUpos Position of Land Use group in Yield Tree integer lf the Land Use group Is only described in the Income symbol tree Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 incomeTreeLUpos climateGroupName economyGroupName landUseGroupName biophysGroupName yieldTreeFile yieldTableFile incomeTreeFile incomeTableFile alwaysUseProximity clumping envxXSize envYySize nLandUse landUseFile useLandUseFile economyFile useEconomyFile 46 file this says which group in the Yield lookup table file pertains to Land Use symbols Position of Land Use group in Income Tree integer If the Land Use group is only described in the Yield symbol tree file this says which group in the Income lookup table file pertains to Land Use symbols Name of the group in the Yield symbol tree representing the Climate Name of the group in the Income symbol tree representing the Economy Name of the group in the Yield and Income symbol trees representing the Land Use The Land Use group need only appear in one of the Yield and Income symbol trees though it must always appear in both lookup tables If absent from a symbol tree file then the yleldTreeLUpos or incomeTreeLUpos parameter should be used Name of the group in the Yield lookup table tree rep
41. neighbourNoiseMean neighbourNoiseVar changeNeighbourWeightDist changeNeighbourWeightMin changeNeighbourWeightMax changeNeighbourWeightMean changeNeighbourWeightVar 53 or truncated normal Distribution from which to set the aspiration threshold of member Land Managers This parameter should either be normal truncated normal or uniform Minimum aspiration threshold floating point This parameter should only appear if aspirationT hresholdDist is uniform or truncated normal Maximum aspiration threshold floating point This parameter should only appear if aspirationT hresholdDist is uniform or truncated normal Mean aspiration threshold floating point This parameter should only appear if aspirationT hresholdDist is normal or truncated normal Aspiration threshold variance floating point This parameter should only appear if aspirationT hresholdDist is normal or truncated normal Distribution from which to set the neighbourhood noise of member Land Managers This parameter should either be normal truncated normal or uniform Minimum neighbourhood noise floating point This parameter should only appear if neighbourNoiseDist uniform or truncated normal Maximum neighbourhood noise floating point This parameter should only appear if neighbourNoiseDist uniform or tr
42. only ies ete seo ie and TimeSeriesReport Ope Tons Timeseries hxpendt eure showing the Expenditure time series NoSingleRowSeries ShowThisYear without single row with this Year End Table 12 Some example report configuration files Note that spacing in the file is irrelevant so long as white space of some kind appears where it appears in the example the layout shown here is to improve readability An option list is a comma separated list of option terms specifying the value of each option Options come in two forms variables and flags The following shows the format for setting them Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 66 e yariablel value e flagl e Noflag2 Here variable is set to the specified value flag is set to True and flag2 is set to False When specifying a list of options there must be no white space between an option term and any following comma but there should be a white space after the comma Any report having options will have default values for them In modell 1 5 the only report with any option is the ClumpinessReport which has a Histo flag Some examples are given in Table 12 5 2 2 Observer file The observer file specifies which displays are required when the model is being run in GUI mode The default is to show all displays which unless you have an unusually large screen is likely to lead to rather a lot of clutter Examples of each of the displays
43. overall index of worth or utility called Combined Utility The Combined Utility is calculated using a linear function which guarantees that only Pareto optimal combinations are selected as long as weights which may also be referred to as salience are positive Combined_Utility lu profit lu profit weight approval lu approval _ weight Once the Combined Utility of every Land Use 1s calculated the Land Manager selects one at random among those with equal maximum Combined Utility Note that this process assumes profit and approval are all stored in cases for the same Land Use across the whole Estate each Year It is thus appropriate only when each Estate consists of a single Land Parcel which is currently the only way to ensure that one Land Use is applied across the whole Estate The allowEstateGrowth parameter will if set to 0 prevent Land Managers from buying new Land Parcels The values for each dimension of utility are not standardised thus the ratio of the weights functions as an exchange rate between the units of the different dimensions of utility e g 50 unit of approval Accordingly this ratio represents the current relative level of concern about the two dimensions When using this type of weighting as long as the weights do not change the marginal rate of substitution between the two dimensions of utility remains constant 1 e independent of the actual values of profit u and approval lu Therefore at the t
44. restored the next time you run FEARLUS though this functionality seems to have varied degrees of reliability on different platforms One other point worth mentioning about GUI mode is that the maxYear parameter behaves differently in GUI mode than it does in batch mode In batch mode maxYear is necessary to specify when the simulation should terminate In GUI mode however this is not required as the Quit button is there for you to exit at any time If the infiniteTime parameter is 0 then the simulation will pause at maxYear You can then click Next or Start to keep running or Quit to exit Beware of this facility especially for large simulations Note that between time steps the GUIs are not redrawn e g if a window is moved in front of them This is a useful way of telling whether the GUI is waiting for input from you Note that if you scroll the ObserverSwarm probe window you are given two buttons which toggle the display of the Parcel and Manager boundaries Figure 19 If you click them while the simulation is stopped i e prior to first clicking the Start or Next button after clicking the Stop button or when the maxYear time step is reached if infiniteTime is 0 you have to click the Next or Start buttons to see the effect Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 ObserversSw Sie show Use arketGraph 1 T l zhowPollutionGraph 1T showPopulationG
45. right co ordinates starting at 0 0 and ending at envXSize 1 envYSize 1 A specific list of Cells can be specified using a series of Zone parameters with the following format Zone xcelll ycelll Zone xcell2 ycell2 Zone xcell3 ycell3 and so on for all cells to be included in the Policy Zone To use the grid file specified using the gridFile parameter in the main model file to load in the Policy Zone from a layer entitled FEARLUS PolicyZone use Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 64 These five different ways of specifying a Policy Zone cannot be mixed except that a Policy Zone specified using one of the first four methods can be saved to the grid file by using the Zone grid parameter setting after the other method has been specified For example to create a random proportion of Cells in the Policy Zone which are then saved to the grid file do Zone Proportion percentage Zone grid A later run could then use the same Policy Zone by reading the grid file saved and using Zone grid on its own to pick up the Cells randomly selected 5 1 14 2 Government file LandUse parameter The LandUse parameter occurs in a number of classes and is used to specify a set of Land Uses the Government is concerned with and possibly to associated a value with each The LandUse parameter is applied repeatedly for each Land Use the Government is to be concerned with The following illustrates
46. strategy usage Figure 37 showStrategyGraph 1 One graph is drawn for each Subpopulation a An example from a CBRStrategySubPopulation b An example from a SubPopulation E E AA m Ey Tt Be _SE See l K b Figure 38 a showManagerRaster 1 A black boundary is drawn between Parcels owned by different Land Managers and a white boundary between Cells belonging to different Parcels Diagonal black and white lines through the Cells indicate a bankruptcy b showManagerChangeRaster 1 Not from the same model run as a Lighter shades of grey indicate more changes of Land Manager Yellow Parcels indicate no change of Manager Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 Landcell LOK LandCell a Ip biophys environment parameter wie nbrList blank 0 area 1 displayMgrMbr 1 T display Phys br 0 subgroup T oDisplay 2 dizplayMorBoundaries 1 T 1 l displayParcelBoundaries 1T a LandParcel parameter environment mir miny mass 26 masy 26 p areal n_cell 1 newLandh anager 0 yield 7 income landM anager landUse weldM emon IncomeM emary land seMemoary nbrList cellList nextLandl anager nestLandUse nLUChange 49 nLblgrChange 7 changeLUR ank 0 601695 b TERETE PFET 79 LandManager FEK ah LandM anager neighbour eight 1 plmitatiwe 0 229495 strateguChangeU nits 0 aspiration Th
47. t O 0O I 0 O a u NA OO a OO a a a a a H aO O o O S a N a O O AANA O a a H O 1 fi 1 fi 1 f fi 1 1 1 1 fi 1 1 1 f fi 1 1 1 1 fi 1 fi 1 f fi 1 1 1 1 1 1 fi 1 f fi 1 1 1 t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t EAE FE AE E AE AE aE FE FE E AE AE AE AE FE FE FE H Coos DER Ron E S a E ee S E l E o o t ES o E G s N E e S E l E E o a e e ES oa a S a a E e S E al E E Co L o EN AE oa E S a E e S ES E aa O 1 fi 1 fi 1 f fi j 1 1 1 fi 1 fi 1 fl fi 1 1 1 1 1 1 fi 1 f fi 1 1 1 1 fi 1 1 1 1 fi 1 1 1 t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t EEEE HEHE HH I WrapSrch 8 2 37 NotSearch Nbr amp WrapN NeighbourhoodDetail Step by step detail of the creation of neighbour lists for each Cell
48. the Land Parcels owned by different Land Managers boolean Show a time series graph of the number of times each decision mode has been used boolean Show a time series graph of the total Pollution boolean Show a time series graph of the price per unit Yield of each Land Use boolean Show a time series graph of the total number of Land Parcels owned by members of each Subpopulation If there is only one Subpopulation show the mean minimum and maximum over all Land Managers boolean Show a time series graph of the mean mininum and maximum Yield from the Land Parcels boolean Show a time series graph of the number of Land Managers in each Subpopulation boolean Show a time series graph of the number of Land Parcels assigned to each Land Use boolean Show a time series graph of the number of Land Parcels for which each Land Use Is the most profitable boolean Show a time series graph of the number of Land Parcels for which each Land Use is the most suitable boolean Show a time series graph of the mean Wealth accumulated by members of each Subpopulation If there is only one Subpopulation show the mean minimum and maximum over all Land Managers Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 showDeathGraph showAgeGraph showUtilityGraph showSalienceGraph showApprovedGraph showApprovingGraph showPriceGraph showNewBidGraph showBidGraph showSalienceDist showManagersDist sh
49. the grid file Options e GridFile The name of a grid file to save the report to default is the gridFile parameter e NoData The no data value to use in the grid file default 9999 8 1 9 LandUseGridFileReport Saves the Land Use applied to each Land Cell to the grid file Options e GridFile The name of a grid file to save the report to default is the gridFile parameter e NoData The no data value to use in the grid file default 9999 8 1 10 LandUseReport Shows the number of Land Parcels using each Land Use 8 1 11 LandUseStateReport Shows all Land Use property value lists 8 1 12 LockinReport If there has been a change in the truth of the statement All Land Parcels are using the same Land Use this Year then give a message to that effect 8 1 13 MeanSubPopParamParcelReport Displays the mean value of the Neighbourhood Weighting the Imitation Probability the Aspiration Threshold and the Memory Size of the Land Managers owning each Land Parcel This mean is over the Land Parcels so Land Managers owning n Land Parcels will be counted n times 8 1 14 NetworkDistributionReport For each requested social network the report provides a histogram of the number of links against the number of Land Managers Options e Network The network that information is required for default all available This can be one of Vendors who sold a Parcel to whom Neighbours who is a social neighbour of
50. this Year is less than zero reward ThresholdDisapprovalE vent DisapprovalThreshold The Land Manager has had more than the threshold amount of gross disapproval Table 5 A summary of the Event classes available 4 2 1 4 Land Manager class CBRSocialParcelLandManager NetApproval gt Social Aspiration poleacn nace V Parcel Net Profit lt Profit Aspiration Choose a Land Use forthe Parcel using the Case Base Keep the same Land Use on the Parcel For each Parcel Choose a Land Use forthe Parcel using the Case Base Figure 10 UML Activity Diagram showing the decision making algorithm for the CBRSocialParcelLandManager class Refer to Figure 9 for more detail on how Land Uses are chosen using the Case Base The CBRSocialLandManager class has the issue that the Profit Aspiration is not changed as the Estate size of the Land Manager grows The CBRSocialParcelLandManager class attempts to Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 26 address this by allowing the Profit Aspiration to refer to the Net Profit made by a particular Land Parcel the Land Parcel s gross Income per unit area less the Break Even Threshold A UML Activity Diagram illustrating the changes in the algorithm is provided in Figure 10 One issue with this class is that the Land Parcel Net Profit does not include any Reward or Fines from the Government agent meaning that Land Managers decisions will not be affected by this Ano
51. where m is the Account of Land Manager m Pm is the set of Land Parcels owned by Land Manager m E is the current state of the Economy U is the Land Use applied to Parcel p g returns the Gross Income per unit Yield from the Gross Income lookup table C is the set of Land Cells belonging to Parcel p a is the area of each cell cellArea parameter Be is the Biophysical Characteristics of Cell c C is the current state of the Climate y returns the Yield per unit area from the Yield lookup table b is the Break Even Threshold per unit area breakEvenThreshold parameter a is the area of Parcel p equal to a times the number of cells p contains z returns the area currently allocated by Manager m to a particular Land Use f are the Farm Scale Fixed Costs farmScaleFixedCosts parameter and s returns the Economy of Scale due to an area allocated by one Land Manager to a Land Use U as follows l Oy l lt py Oy AZV Oyl QA Ou s U a o l o 2e Berea Piga Yu Pu l SSS Pein 6 ee es ce Yu By where fy yy and oy parameterise the Economy of Scale function for Land Use U If oy lt 1 then the Economy of Scale decreases linearly from 1 to oy as the area increases from fy to yy If Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 31 oy gt 1 then the Economy of Scale decreases as an inverse function of oy as the area increases from fy to yy from 1 to 1 oy Economy of Scale Eco
52. white space Every report configuration file must finish with the word End The simplest configuration file consists solely of this word and will call every report each Year Optionally the first statement in the file can be one saying DefaultYearsToReport Year list without the quotes A Year list is a comma separated list of terms where each term may be one of the following e integer Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 65 e integer2 integer3 e Every integer4 Here integer is greater than or equal to 0 and specifies a fixed Year in which the report will be made Next integer2 is also greater than or equal to 0 and integer3 is greater than integer2 and they together specify an inclusive fixed range of Years in which to report Finally integer4 is a repeat interval The report will be called in Year O the initialisation Year and then in intervals of integer4 thereafter There must be no white space between a term and a comma following it For example DefaultYearsToReport 7 9 Every 20 70 80 Every 99 199 would in a run with the maxYear parameter set to 200 stipulate the default that reports would be called in Years 0 7 9 20 40 60 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 99 100 120 140 160 180 198 and 199 Note that Year 200 is not reported on the maxYear parameter specifies the Year before which to stop the simulation and reports are never issued for that Year
53. 0 1 help 2 tearius 1 5 W tear s 179 G Though the option p to specify the parameter file is denoted as optional above the only cases in which you would not give this option are when running model1 1 5 with the O and C options to create an ontology of the model1l 1 5 modelling framework or when using the help w or c options to get a brief command line synopsis a statement of no warranty and conditions of use respectively The other most commonly used flag is the b flag which is used to specify a batch mode run rather than the default GUI mode run Batch mode is faster than GUI mode and suitable for running as a background process but is typically used in conjunction with the R and r options to obtain some output If you are using GUI mode then the o option is strongly recommended as otherwise a very large number of windows are potentially generated If you configured Swarm with the disable gui option then for obvious reasons GUI mode will not be available The other command line options are explained below 3 1 Controlling the seed and random number generator A number of options are provided for controlling the seed Beyond version 2 1 1 the Swarm libraries have the default options s and S lt seed gt to do this The option X lt lt seed gt TIME DEFAULT gt applies to FEARLUS models compiled with versions 2 1 1 and earlier of Swarm that did not have the same flexibility in deter
54. 00000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 8 2 23 InitialLandUseAllocations Shows during Year 0 the Land Uses allocated to each Land Parcel The following shows an excerpt from example output WO oou 00RA UNEPEOLRLRON CAUAR UNEPEOLRLON CAAA UOUN EPEOLRLON CAORA UNEO 00000 InitialLandUseAllocations Land manager 398 selected initial land use 2 Barley Non organic for land parcel 1556 at 38 35 using method RandomStrategy 00000 InitialLandUseAllocations Allocation method selected for land parcel 1555 at 38 34 RandomStrategy by land manager 398 because it is year 0 00000 InitialLandUseAllocations Land manager 398 selected initial land use 6 Oat Non organic for land parcel 1555 at 38 34 using method RandomStrategy Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 99 00000 InitialLandUseAllocations Allocation method selected for land parcel 1598 at 39 37 RandomStrategy by land manager 399 because it is year 0 00000 InitialLandUseAllocations Land manager 399 selected initial land use 3 Oat Organic for land parcel 1598 at 39 37 using method RandomStrategy 00000 InitialLandUseAlloc
55. 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013 GUI GUIKey Details of additions to the decision component key The following is an example for CBRSocialSubPopulation classes CENG ting lay lay ting ting lay lay ting ting lay lay 96 er FEARLUS LandParcelID to value 1 in cell 0 0 er FEARLUS LandParcelID to value 1 in cell 1 0 er FEARLUS Biophys LCAClass to value LCA V in cell 5 4 er FEARLUS Biophys LCAClass to value LCA V in cell 6 4 er FEARLUS LandUseID Initial to value 7 in cell 4 14 er FEARLUS LandUseID Initial to value 7 in cell 5 14 Allocated 240 colours component component Component Component a Component ES Component d component p e component m a ExperimentationMode to key ExperimentationStrategy to key HabitMode to key ImitationStrategy to key ImperfectAdviceMode to key ImperfectMatchMode to key InitialMode to key PerfectAdviceMode to key GUINeighbourhoodDetail UIKey Adding decision UIKey Adding decision UIKey Adding decision UIKey Adding decision UIKey Adding decision UIKey Adding decision UIKey Adding decision UIKey Adding decision UIKey Adding decision component PerfectMatchMode to key GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 316 at 31 31 dra
56. 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 90 bankruptcies this Year EstateSize the distribution of size of Estate of all Land Managers Account the distribution of Account of all Land Managers Profit the distribution of Profit earned this Year by all Land Managers Age the distribution of Age of all Land Managers LandUseChange the distribution of number of Land Use changes on all Land Parcels LandManagerChange the distribution of number of changes of owner on all Land Parcels Price the distribution of most recent Price of all Land Parcels Those series listed as being for each x will create a separate time series for each x Those listed as being the distribution of x will use the CollectiveSource parameter setting to determine the time series data from the distribution The following time series are available where a Government agent is configured but are not included in the All option Expenditure the amount spent by the Government this Year Fines for classes of Government issuing Fines only the total amount of Fines received this Year ManagerRewards the distribution of rewards for all Land Managers ManagerFines the distribution of fines for all Land Managers The following time series are available where Land Managers are of a class issuing Approval and Disapproval but are not included in the All option Approval the distribution of Ap
57. 3 to 19735 9 00093 Harvest Economy of scale for land use 8 Beef Non organic on land parcel 283 at 28 4 used by land manager 71 with total area 18 2 for this land use 1 00093 Harvest Land manager 71 harvesting yield 10 6 with income 105 9 from land parcel 283 at 28 4 with break even threshold 78 Account 19735 9 will be incremented by 27 8996 to 19763 8 00093 Harvest Economy of scale for land use 3 Barley Organic on land parcel 303 at 30 4 used by land manager 71 with total area 10 4 for this land use 1 00093 Harvest Land manager 71 harvesting yield 10 8089 with income 106 334 from land parcel 303 at 30 4 with break even threshold 78 Account 19763 8 will be incremented by 28 3338 to 19792 1 00093 Harvest Economy of scale for land use 8 Beef Non organic on land parcel 301 at 30 0 used by land manager 71 with total area 18 2 for this land use 1 00093 Harvest Land manager 71 harvesting yield 8 45528 with income 84 4728 from land parcel 301 at 30 0 with break even threshold 78 Account 19792 1 will be incremented by 6 47278 to 19798 6 00093 Harvest Economy of scale for land use 8 Beef Non organic on land parcel 281 at 28 0 used by land manager 71 with total area 18 2 for this land use 1 00093 Harvest Land manager 71 harvesting yield 10 5645 with income 105 545 from land parcel 281 at 28 0 with break even threshold 78 Account 19798 6 will be incremented by 27 5449 to 19826 2 00093 Harvest E
58. 32031991e 00 model profit_wgt_CBRSociall P 1 699783432031991e 00 x model selectionStrategy e RandomSelectionStrategy_91f960 os model subPop_Abstract e CBRStrategySubPopulation_1 a model approvers_Abstr e CBRStrategyLandManager_5572 a amp CBRStrategyLandManager_5595 we CBRStrategyLandManager_5623 CBRStrategyLandManager_5642 CBRStrategyLandManager_5643 model disapprovers_Ab CBRStrategyLandManager_5658 CBRStrategyLandManager_5679 CBRStrategyLandManager_5680 b i lt ox model events_CBRSocia BadHarvestEvent_574700 model NormalDist 2 model NoStrategy 24 model Number 176 modet Parameter 1 D model ProbeMap D model RandomStrategy 16 3 model StrategyColourKey 1 model Tube 348 modet YieldAverageVWeightedTemporalCop amp NeighbourDisapprovalEvent_113b808 model rewardObtained_Abst P 0 000000000000000e 00 model pin_AbstractLandMan P 5567 model rewardedByGovernmi P model salience_adjust_CBRS P 0 1 782888088322987e 00 model experimentation_ e RandomStrategy_113f6d8 model someLandParcelsLos P model salience_margin_CBR P 0 2 577167341600928e 00 Types e s g model CBRStrategyLandManager modet account AbstractLanc P os nodel imitative strateqy e b
59. 4 3 1 3 Government class CappedRewardActivityGovernment Description Issues rewards but with a cap on the total amount any one Land Manager may receive Parameter Parameter description Zone The zone in which to issue rewards default everywhere LandUse label reward For each awardable Land Use the associated reward parameter specifies the reward the Land Manager will get subject to a cap Negative rewards are treated as fines implemented as specified Cap cap Specify the maximum amount any Land Manager will receive 4 3 1 4 Government class CappedB udgetR ewardActivityGovernment Issues rewards as shares of a fixed budget see 4 3 1 2 but with a cap on the total amount any one Land Manager may receive LandUse label reward For each awardable Land Use the associated reward parameter specifies a weight per unit area of the budget the Land Manager will get Negative rewards are treated as fines implemented as specified Budget budget Specify the budget the Government has to spend Specify the maximum amount any Land Manager will receive 4 3 2 Government classes issuing limited rewards for Land Uses The following classes reward certain Land Uses where they are applied to Land Parcels but with a limit on the number of rewards that will be made With these classes therefore Land Managers can affect each others potential for being rewarded for their Land Use decisions In the NbrSubsetActivityGovernmen
60. 5 Barley Organic for land parcel 741 at 18 20 using method EccentricSpecialistStrategy 00007 Decision Land manager 201 selected land use 5 Barley Organic for land parcel 718 at 17 37 using method HabitStrategy 00007 Decision Land manager 201 selected land use 4 Beef Non organic for land parcel 839 at 20 38 using method HabitStrategy Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 93 O00007 Decision Land manager 202 selected land use 1 at 18 2 using method RandomCopyingStrategy 8 2 9 DecisionAlgorithm Explains how the Land Use decision is made Information displayed depends on Land Manager class The following is for the LandManager class Oat Non organic for land parcel 723 O00008 DecisionAlgorithm Allocation method selected for land parcel 1528 at 38 7 HabitStrategy by land manager 1775 because the income per unit area 47 7381 is at or above the threshold 6 27957 O00008 DecisionAlgorithm Allocation method selected for land parcel 714 at 17 33 EcecentricSpecialistStrategy by land manager 1785 because land parcel s income per unit area 74 4769 is below threshold 99 and choice 0 033238 made to use non imitative strategy probability 1 O00008 DecisionAlgorithm Allocation method selected for land parcel 832 at 20 31 YieldAverageWeightedTemporalCopyingStrategy by land manager 1799 because land parcel s income per unit area 3 44321 is below threshold 31 5377 and cho
61. 5650 CBRStrategyLandianager_5651 CBRStrategyLandManager_5652 CBRStrategyLandManager_5653 CBRStrategyLandManager_5654 CBRStrategyLandManager_5658 CBRStrategyLandManager_5660 Ed CBRStrategyLandManager_5664 CBRStrategyLandManager_5668 amp CBRStrategyLandManager_5669 CBRStrategyLandManager_5671 CBRStrategyLandManager_5675 CBRStrategyLandManager_5679 CBRStrategyLandManager_5680 ces CBRStrategyLandManager_5682 CBRStrategyLandManager_5683 CBRStrategyLandManager_5684 CBRStrategyLandManager_5686 For Individual CBRStrategyLandManager_S567 instance of model CBRStrategyLandManager Name SameAs DifferentFrom LJ Annotations Ce eR CBRStrategyLandManager_5567 Property Lang Value rdfs comment See model age_AbstractLandMar P 25 model alive_AbstractLandMa P 1 modet allLandParcelsLost_Al P 0 model colour_AbstractLandh P x4 model offFarmincomeMean __ P 0 000000000000000e 00 xs model offFarmincomeVar_Al P 0 000000000000000e 00 model p_cbr_CBRStrategyLai P 5 000000000000000e 01 model p_imitative_CBRStrate P 0 000000000000000e 00 model finedByGovernment_ P o model memory_size_CBRStr P 1 model number OfLandParcels yal model profit_AbstractLandM P 6 639500000000000e 04 model profit_min_CBRSociall P 1 6997834
62. 7gen PMMLCG8gen PMMLCG9gen PSWBgen RWC2gen RWC8gen SCGgen SWBlgen SWB2gen SWB3gen TT403gen TT775gen and TT800gen Not all of these classes are recommended for use Consult the Swarm documentation for more information In addition to the Swarm random number generator classes if you have a Quantis quantum random number generator device see _http www idquantique com products quantis htm FEARLUS provides the QRNGgen class for you to use To compile it you should set your QUANTIS_ HOME environment variable to the directory where header and library files can be found for your device If the header and library files are in different directories you can also specify one or both of QUANTIS INCLUDE HOME and QUANTIS LIB HOME in your environment If the library to pick up for your device is not called libquantis usb a or libquantis usb so you should use the QUANTIS_ LIB environment variable to specify the argument to the linker in the l compilation flag 3 2 Controlling the text output There are three forms of text output that the FEARLUS model can generate debugging output ontology output and report output These output options which are not mutually exclusive are discussed in more detail in section 8 The various displays that the FEARLUS model can generate are discussed in section 7 3 2 1 Debugging output The debugging output has been developed using the concept of verbosity level which is a number that determin
63. 8 11 e FEARLUS LandParcelID Each cell in the following matrix should contain an integer representing an identifier for the Land Parcel the Land Cell corresponding to the cell in the matrix belongs to e FEARLUS Biophys property Each cell in the following matrix should contain the name of the symbol to set the in specified property of the Biophysical Characteristics property value list of the corresponding Land Cell e FEARLUS LandManagerID Initial Each cell in the following matrix should contain an integer identifier for the Land Manager owning the Land Parcel of the corresponding Land Cell This allows the specification of how Parcels are grouped into Estates Note if there are more than one Land Cells in a Parcel one of the Cells will be taken as the representative Cell and the entry in the corresponding matrix cell will determine the Land Manager of the Parcel The choice of representative Cell should be considered arbitrary so it is in your interest to ensure that the same Land Manager identifier is recorded in all matrix cells corresponding to Land Cells that comprise a single Land Parcel e FEARLUS SubPopulationID Initial As per FEARLUS LandManagerID but sets the Subpopulation of the Land Manager The same note applies e FEARLUS LandUseID Initial Each cell in the following matrix should contain an integer identifier for the Land Use of the Land Parcel A similar note applies as for Land Manager ID and SubPopulation ID Th
64. Bidding s Selection tra strategy class Off farm income mean distribution Off farm income variance distribution Trigger list Trigger class Approval Land u se symbols LandUseGroupTrigger 0 Disapproval End of triggers Minimu Minimu Salien Salien Approval Event Even Even Disa Cc m profit salience distribution m approval salience distribution ce margin distribution ce adjustmen Profit aspiration t distribution tegy configuration string threshold distribution 1 Management Organic un un un aspiration threshold distribution list lass action proval threshold incApprovalSalience 3 cr EO ch ct Even Even Event Event Event Event Mean Cc C a cL a Cc Cc lass tion ass tion lass action Harvest NoRewardEvent decProfitSalience LandParcelSoldEvent incProfitSalience BadHarvestEvent incProfitSalience Threshold 30 End of events End of Subpopulations Government class Pollution threshold 1550 Low pollution reward per land manager 8 2 39 ThresholdDisapprovalEvent 10 ParcelTransfers wealthcDist RandomSelectionStrategy uniform Minim uniform Minim iform iform uniform Minimum iform niform wealthcMin 0 2 wealthcMax 0 2 0 0 Maximum 0 Maximum 0 u u m m 2 1 Maximum 0 125 Minimum
65. CaseBase Reports on case base lookups Example output 0O0002 CaseBase The first case was the best case when looking up land use 12 00002 CaseBase Re ordering episodic memory for land use 12 O0002 CaseBase The best case was other than the first case when looking up land use 1 00002 CaseBase Re ordering episodic memory for land use 1 0O0002 CaseBase The best case was other than the first case when looking up land use 3 O0O0002 CaseBase Re ordering episodic memory for land use 3 O0002 CaseBase The best case was other than the first case when looking up land use 1 O00002 CaseBase Re ordering episodic memory for land use 1 O00002 CaseBase The first case was the best case when looking up land use 3 O00002 CaseBase Re ordering episodic memory for land use 3 8 2 3 CaseBaseDetail Detail on cases added to and removed from the case base of each Land Manager Vast amounts of output generated This verbosity should possibly be used in conjunction with the Learning verbosity output so you can see the Land Manager the case base additions apply to The following illustrates 00002 CaseBaseDetail Adding case Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 92 CASE Time 2 STATE Biophysical Characteristics land parcel 14 24 Climate LowVar Cold Economy Bear HighXch DECISION Land Use ID 11 OUTCOME Profit 1 91596 Approval 14 00002 Learni
66. ClusterActivityGovernment but with a Cap on the reward a Manager can receive A reward is issued for using an awardable Land Use with extra if neighbours have the same Use NbrS ubsetActivityG overnment A limited number of awards are made to Managers where a minimum number of contiguous Parcels have the same Land Use A reward is issued to every Land Manager for each Parcel they own if the Pollution is less than a threshold awardable Land Use Pollution is less than a threshold SortN brS ubsetActivityG overnment As per NbrSubsetActivityGovernment with awards Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 36 Government class Description Managers would have received without the limit Sorts ubsetA ctivityG overnment As per SubsetActivityGovernment but the limited awards are made to Managers in descending order of number of awards they would have received without the limit As per RewardActivityGovernment but with a limit on the number of awards that will be made issued for a Land Use until a target coverage is reached As per ClusterActivityGovernment but rewards are issued for a Land Use until a target coverage is reached Table 10 The Government classes available Many of the classes allow the policy rewards or fines to be issued within a restricted zone The Zone parameter provides various ways for this to be specified for details refer to section 5 1 14 4 3 1 Government classes implem
67. Essential for batch runs The number entered here should actually be one more than the maximum Y ear you want reported Flag indicating whether or not to run indefinitely 1 to run indefinitely 0 to use max Year Must be 0 for batch runs Distribution from which to set the pollution of each Land Use This parameter should either be normal uniform or none Minimum pollution floating point This parameter should only appear if pollutionDist is uniform Maximum pollution floating point This parameter should only appear if pollutionDist is uniform Mean pollution floating point This parameter should only appear if pollutionDist is normal Pollution account variance floating point This parameter should only appear if pollutionDist is normal File to load Subpopulation contest data from The number of Subpopulations is taken from this file Amount to subtract from Yield to get Wealth accrued to Land Manager per unit area floating point Fixed costs to apply at the farm scale floating point File to load farm scale fixed costs from Whether or not to hold a Vickrey rather than a first price sealed bid auction for Land Parcels Boolean Whether or not to allow Land Managers to own multiple Land Parcels Boolean Whether or not to use social rather than physical neighbourhood of Parcels for sell when notifying potential buyers Boolean Number of initial horizontal Lan
68. I Flat LU Barley Organic 0 000000000000000e 00 0 000000000000000e 00 0 000000000000000e 00 1 000000000000000e 00 8 291016 8 3 Ontology There are three different kinds of ontology that can be created Framework ontology This contains all classes in the software that are subclasses of a specified root class by default SwarmObject which results in a number of irrelevant Swarm library classes being included Model ontology This contains all classes contained in the Parameter Environment LandAllocator which contains the Land Managers and Government object instance variables as well as the classes of these objects themselves That is it is intended that this ontology contain the classes of any instance of any object in the model Model state ontology This contains in addition to the model ontology possibly by importing the model ontology all instances of the classes in the model ontology at the time the model state ontology is created Ontology output is requested by giving the O command line option By default it has the unnamed OWL URI as per Prot g http www owl ontologies com unnamed owl To use a different URI give the URI as argument to the U command line option You will not really notice a practical difference except in the case of the model state ontology where imports are used If no model file is given 1 e no p command line option then a framework ontology will be created To create a f
69. LUS and issues such as this are likely to be fixed in a later version 3 2 3 Report output For specific report output you need to create a report configuration file see sections 5 2 1 and 8 1 indicating what reports you want made and when you want them to be run This file is specified using the R option Use the r option to specify the file you want the report saved to which if not specified 1s fearlus report txt by default The a option is used if you are running the model several times and rather than creating lots of different report files you want the reports for all the runs to be stored in one file If the a option is given then the report will be appended to the file specified with the r option if it exists already 3 3 Interaction with the grid In GUI mode a button may be added to the ProcCtrl window to allow the parameter files you are using to be uploaded to the grid Currently this is designed only for interaction with the FEARLUS G application which is assumed to be installed on your local machine The j option is used to specify the path to the java FEARLUS G client application and the G option to specify the URL for the grid service The g and H options are ignored currently but reserved for future use Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 3 4 Summary Command line flag Status Effect Optional Appends to report file rather than creating a new one 1f it exists
70. Land Use which if exceeded means that any Land Manager not awarded for that Land Use in the previous Year cannot be awarded for the Land Use in this Year even if Managers awarded in the previous Year have changed activity Rewards are divided as shares of a fixed budget subject to a cap Parameter description The zone in which to issue rewards default everywhere LandUse label target List of awardable Land Uses Parcel owned by the Manager neighbouring Parcel using the same Land Use as the Manager s 4 3 6 Government classes aimed at controlling pollution These Government classes all work on a similar basis issuing a reward if total pollution is below a threshold This can create a social dilemma since Land Managers individually might have incentives to ignore the pollution created by applying certain Land Uses since their Land Use decisions are not likely to determine whether they are going to get the reward or not but if they all do so they might not get the reward at all and consequently they may end up worse off than if they had chosen more environmentally friendly Land Uses and had got the reward Rewards per Land Parcel rather than per Land Manager would be more in line with current environmental schemes e g CAP reform Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 43 4 3 6 1 Government class RewardingGovernment Description The reward is issued to all Land Managers if the total pollutio
71. MyParams model R MyReports cfg r MyReportOutputFile s a gt dev null One point to note from this example is that the model is being run from the directory containing all the parameter files If this 1s not done then all filenames in parameter files should use full paths This latter approach could be useful in maintaining a database of parameter file settings using the filesystem but would impact the portability of the parameter files 7 GUI mode GUI mode is typically used for exploratory runs of the model and for generating pictures for diagrams A large number of displays are possible in GUI mode and it is suggested that an observer file section 5 2 2 be used to select the displays required These and any options for setting them are all illustrated in the ensuing subsections Note that if the executable version of FEARLUS has been compiled against a non GUI version of Swarm then GUI mode will as you might expect not be available In earlier versions of FEARLUS the GUI could be used to enter parameters for the model Though some parameters chiefly those in the main model file can be adjusted from the GUI you are now expected to supply an argument to the p command line option The GUI can still be used to decide which displays to use though probably most of the runs you will want to do will use the same displays and since it gets tiresome to enter the displays all the time you are recommended to create an observer file and g
72. Parcel basis independently Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 17 Yield gt Aspiration Threshold a F fears Dissatisfied U Years Dissatisfied 1 Years Dissatisfied lt Years to Change Use satisficing strategy Rand 0 lt X lt 1 lt Imitative Probability Use imitative strategy Use innovative strategy Figure 7 UML Activity Diagram of the decision making algorithm of the DelayedChangeLandManager 4 2 1 3 Land Manager class CBRSocialLandManager In this section we explain how Land Managers of the CBRSocialLandManager class make decisions CBRSocialLandManagers have two top level concerns or dimensions of utility that they take into account when selecting Land Uses for their Land Parcels They are concerned both about profit and about the social acceptability of their actions Similarly to the Land Manager classes explained in section 4 2 1 1 CBRSocialLandManagers follow a satisficing approach in the sense that if they meet both their profit and their social approval aspiration thresholds profitAspirationDist and approvalAspirationDist both set using probability distributions at the Subpopulation level then they effectively use the Habit Strategy for all their Land Parcels they keep the same Land Use that was used last year on every Land Parcel they own Note that the profit aspiration threshold is set at the Estate level and does not change 1f the
73. Parcels where this will contribute to increasing the contiguous area devoted to a Land Use until a target coverage of the Land Use is reached Land Managers are given a reward for using an awardable Land Use on any Parcel they own and then extra if the awardable Land Use is used by a neighbouring Manager on a neighbouring Parcel However the Government has a target coverage for each Land Use which if exceeded means that any Land Manager not awarded for that Land Use in the previous Year cannot be awarded for the Land Use in this Year even if Managers awarded in the previous Year have changed activity Rewards are divided as shares of a fixed budget Parameter description The zone in which to issue rewards default everywhere LandUse label target List of awardable Land Uses Reward reward The reward per unit area to be given for any awardable Land Use on a Parcel owned by the Manager NbrReward nbr The reward per unit area to be given for any awardable Land Use on a neighbouring Parcel using the same Land Use as the Manager s Budget budget The budget 4 3 5 3 Government class CappedTargetClusterActivityGovernment Description Land Managers are awarded for putting awardable Land Uses on Parcels where this will contribute to increasing the contiguous area devoted to a Land Use until a target coverage of the Land Use is Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 42 reached Land Managers are give
74. SubpopulationCreationDetail RandomStrategy aboveP 0 belowNonImitP 0 belowImitP 0 initialP 1 8 2 45 Yield Yield and Income information for each Land Parcel each Year 00011 00011 00011 00011 etc 8 2 46 Yield New yield for Land Parcel 1425 at 35 24 9 64783 income 86 665 Yield New yield for Land Parcel 1426 at 35 25 9 64783 income 86 665 Yield New yield for Land Parcel 1427 at 35 26 5 5722 income 50 0543 Yield New yield for Land Parcel 1428 at 35 27 0 299377 income 1 86928 YieldDetail Detailed information on the Yield and Income 00002 YieldDetail Lookup of yield for situation LowVar Cold LCA I Steep LU Beef Non organic 0 000000000000000e 00 0 000000000000000e 00 0 000000000000000eE 00 1 000000000000000eE 00 7 645569 00002 YieldDetail Lookup of income for situation LU Beef Non organic 0 000000000000000e 00 0 000000000000000e 00 0 000000000000000e 00 1 000000000000000e 00 Bull LowXch 4 777527 00002 YieldDetail Lookup of yield for situation LowVar Cold LCA III Flat LU Oat Non organic 0 000000000000000e 00 0 000000000000000e 00 0 000000000000000e 00 1 000000000000000e 00 9 434509 00002 YieldDetail Lookup of income for situation LU Oat Non organic 0 000000000000000e 00 0 000000000000000e 00 0 000000000000000e 00 1 000000000000000e 00 Bull LowXch 6 048279 00002 YieldDetail Lookup of yield for situation LowVar Cold LCA I
75. The next simplest report configuration file besides that consisting only of the word End is one consisting of a DefaultYearsToReport statement followed by the word End For example a file containing DefaultY earsToReport 200 End would specify in a run with maxYear more than or equal to 201 that all reports were to be written in Year 200 More typically however only a few of the available reports listed in section 8 1 will be required Following the optional DefaultYearsToReport statement a series of statements should be specified for each report required Each such statement consists of the name of the report class as given in the subsection headings in section 8 1 followed if required by a list of options followed if DefaultYearsToReport have not been specified and the report is not required every Year or the defaults are to be over ridden for this report by a Year list An option list is preceded by the term Options if it appears and a Year list by the term YearsToReport Report configuration file What it does Every report every Year DefaultYearsToReport Every 10 Every report every 10 Years End Perec UPEO EPALE ParcelSubPopReport Years ToREpOrt 200 in Year 200 only End DefaultYearsToReport Every I ClimateStateReport ClimateStateReport and EconomyStateReport EconomyStateReport every Year ClumpinessReport ClumpinessReport Opt woe gt esi showing a histogram YearsToReport 0 in Year 0
76. Yield lookup table Structure file yield tree Biophysical group Biophysical Climate group Climate Land Use group LandUse Position Not used Table data file yield data Economic return lookup table Structure file income tree Economy group Economy Land Use group LandUse Position Not used Table data file income data Grid file manual grd Land Use file Not used Climate file suddenchangel50 clim Economy file Not used Climate change probabilities 0 0625 0 0625 Economy change probabilities 0 09375 0 09375 Subpopulation super class CBRSocialSubPopulation Begin Subpopulations Sub population ID 1 Label Conservationists Probability of land manager belonging to this sub population 0 5 Land Manager class CBRSocialParcelLandManager Initial account distribution normal Mean 50 Variance 10 Probability of selling up distribution uniform Minimum 0 Maximum 0 Incomer offer price distribution uniform Minimum 5 Maximum 5 Land offer threshold distribution uniform Minimum 10 Maximum 10 Bidding strategy class WealthMultipleBiddingStrategy Bidding strategy configuration string wealthcDist uniform wealthcMin 0 1 wealthcMax 0 1 Selection strategy class RandomSelectionStrategy Off farm income mean distribution uniform Minimum 7 Maximum 7 Off farm income variance distribution uniform Minimum 2 Maximum 2 Trigger list Trigger class NeighbourPollutionTrigger Approval 1 Disapproval Trigger class LandUseGroupTri
77. a model social aspiration CBR P h Figure 54 A model ontology viewed in the Individuals tab in Prot g allowing the settings for a particular instance of CBRStrategyLandManager to be viewed 9 Strategies This section gives more detail on the algorithms used to select a Land Parcel by various Strategies than was given in Table 4 Note that many of the imitative Strategies do a little more than their name implies the score calculated is often affected by the number of times each Land Use appears in the social neighbourhood Thus a Land Use with a low score in each individual Parcel could end up being chosen simply because it appears more often in the neighbourhood than one with a high individual Parcel score Such imitative Strategies therefore make an implicit assumption that their neighbours are choosing good Land Uses 9 1 Strategies following the ImitativeStrategy Protocol 9 1 1 Habit Retain the same Land Use on the Land Parcel as was used the previous Year 9 1 2 Random Copying Choose a new Land Use 1 e one not currently applied to the Land Parcel at random from the set of Land Uses appearing in the social neighbourhood If all Land Uses in the social neighbourhood are the same keep the same Land Use If the neighbourhood weighting is zero then choose a Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 109 Land Use at random from the set of Land Uses currently being used
78. al Maximum probability of using Case Based Reasoning when the Aspiration is not met floating point This parameter should only appear if oCBRDist is uniform or truncated normal Mean probability of using Case Based Reasoning when the Aspiration is not met floating point This parameter should only appear if oCBRDist is normal or truncated normal pCBRVar Probability of using Case Based Reasoning when the Aspiration is not met variance floating point This parameter should only appear if oCBRDist is normal or truncated normal pImitateDist Distribution from which to set the probability of using the Imitative Strategy of member Land Managers This parameter should either be normal truncated normal or uniform piImitateMin Minimum probability of using the Imitative Strategy floating point This parameter should only appear if plmitateDist is uniform or truncated normal piImitateMax Maximum probability of using the Imitative Strategy Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 57 floating point This parameter should only appear if plmitateDist is uniform or truncated normal piImitateMean Mean probability of using the Imitative Strategy floating point This parameter should only appear if plmitateDist is normal or truncated normal piImitateVar Probability of using the Imitative Stra
79. al profitMinSalienceMax Maximum profit minimum salience floating point This parameter should only appear if profitMinSalienceDist is uniform or truncated normal profitMinSalienceMean Mean profit minimum salience floating point This parameter should only appear if profitMinSalienceDist is normal or truncated normal profitMinSalienceVar Profit minimum salience variance floating point This parameter should only appear if profitMinSalienceDist is normal or truncated normal approvalMinSalienceDist Distribution from which to set the approval minimum salience of member Land Managers This parameter should either be normal truncated normal or uniform approvalMinSalienceMin Minimum approval minimum salience floating point This parameter should only appear if approvalMinSalienceDist is uniform or truncated normal approvalMinSalienceMax Maximum approval minimum salience floating point This parameter should only appear if approvalMinSalienceDist is uniform or truncated normal Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 approvalMinSalienceMean approvalMinSalienceVar salienceMarginDist salienceMarginMin salienceMarginMax salienceMarginMean salienceMarginVar salienceAdjustDist salienceAdjustMin salienceAdjustMax salienceAdjustMean salienceAdjustVar profitAspirationDist profitAspirati
80. al or a uniform distribution In each of these cases there will be a parameter called Dist that specifies which to use the value for which should be either normal truncated normal or uniform If the Dist parameter is uniform then the range of values is specified using the corresponding Min and Max parameters for normal Dist parameter setting the Mean and Var parameters should be used The truncated normal distribution takes a sample from a normal distribution using the Mean and Var parameters but samples less than a stipulated minimum are truncated to Min and greater than a stipulated maximum are truncated to Max Different Subpopulation classes require different parameters The overall file format and common parameters are described below with additional parameters specific to each class in subsections to follow String containing a unique name for this Subpopulation The label is optional a label will be generated automatically if none is specified The label is of most use in GUI mode to tell the Subpopulations apart on the graphs colour A colour to use for this Subpopulation integer The colour is also optional and only relevant in GUI mode Colours are preset in a colourmap and they are indexed by this integer which should be a positive integer Colours will be automatically assigned to Subpopulations
81. ame File to load in migrant Subpopulation probabilities from SubPopulationFile SP file no int SP file name The above line should appear the number of times indicated by the NumberOfSubPopulations entry The Subpopulation file number SP file no should start at 1 on the first SubP opulationF ile line and increase in steps of 1 The format of the Subpopulation probability file is a CSV format file with the following layout Year Subpopulation 1 label Subpopulation 2 label etc for each Subpopulation 0 Subpopulation I Year 0 probability Subpopulation 2 Year 0 probability etc Year 0 is the initialisation Y ear 1 Subpopulation I Year 1 probability Subpopulation 2 Year I probability etc 2 Subpopulation I Year 2 probability Subpopulation 2 Year 2 probability etc 3 Subpopulation 1 Year 3 probability Subpopulation 2 Year 3 probability etc An entry for each Year is expected even if the probabilities do not change If there are fewer Years of data in the file than the number of Years in the simulation then a warning will be issued and the values from the last Year in the file will be used for all further Years Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 50 5 1 4 Subpopulation file The Subpopulation file contains details of the ranges of parameters that will be assigned to Land Managers belonging to this Subpopulation Some ranges of parameters can be specified using a norm
82. and Parcel boolean Show a distribution of the current mean log profit salience approval salience for each CBRSocialSubPopulation or CBRStrategyS ubP opulation Hence negative values show more approval salience positive values more profit salience boolean Show a distribution of the Estate size of Land Managers boolean Show if appropriate a distribution of the Neighbourhood Weighting over members of each Subpopulation so one graph for each Subpopulation with parameters set to allow this to vary boolean As showNWeightDist but for the Aspiration Threshold boolean As showNWeightDist but for the Imitation Probability integer Number of bins to use in the distribution graphs So all graphs have the same number of bins integer How many units of 250 pixels to make the rasters This multiple of 250 pixels will determine the number of pixels to use for the Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 69 larger dimension of the Environment So if the zoomSize is 2 and the Environment has 10 horizontal Land Parcels and 4 vertical then all raster displays will be 500 pixels across by 200 pixels down displayFrequency integer How often to update the display of all rasters and graphs The following are provided for debugging purposes showZoneGraph boolean Show a time series graph of the size in terms of number of allocated pointers of various zones a Swarm term for areas of computer me
83. andManagerCreationDetail 99 8 2 27 LandManagerDestruction 99 8 2 28 LandParcelCreation 100 8 2 29 LandUseChange 100 8 2 30 LandUseCreation 100 8 2 31 LandUseMatch 100 8 2 32 LandUseMatchDetail 100 8 2 33 Learning 100 8 2 34 LookupTable 101 8 2 35 LookupTableLookups 101 8 2 36 Neighbourhood 101 8 2 37 NeighbourhoodDetail 102 8 2 38 Parameters 103 8 2 39 ParcelTransfers 104 8 2 40 ParcelTransfersDetail 104 8 2 41 Pollution 105 8 2 42 PollutionDetail 105 8 2 43 StrategyDetail 105 8 2 44 SubpopulationCreation and SubpopulationCreationDetail 105 8 2 45 Yield 106 8 2 46 YieldDetail 106 8 3 Ontology 106 9 STRATEGIES 108 9 1 Strategies following the ImitativeStrategy Protocol 108 9 1 1 Habit 108 9 1 2 Random Copying 108 9 1 3 Simple Copying 109 9 1 4 Simple Physical Copying 109 9 1 5 Yield Average Weighted Temporal Copying 109 9 1 6 Yield Random Optimum Temporal Copying 109 9 1 7 Yield Weighted Copying 109 9 1 8 9 2 O22 yaw 92 2 9 2 4 10 10 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 10 5 10 6 10 7 10 8 11 11 1 11 2 11 3 11 4 11 5 12 Yield Weighted Temporal Copying Strategies following the NonImitativeStrategy Protocol Eccentric Specialist Fickle Grid File Random EVENTS BadHarvestEvent DisapprovalProportionEvent High WealthEvent LandParcelSoldEvent Neighbour DisapprovalEvent NetLossEvent NoRewardEvent ThresholdDisapprovalEvent TRIGGERS AllLowPollutionTrigger LandUseGroupTrigger NeighbourPollutionTrigger T
84. any bids they wish to make for each Land Parcel they have been notified of The Land Allocator conducts an auction assigning a possibly in migrant new Land Manager to the Land Parcels Land Managers who sold all their Land Parcels are removed from the schedule Parameter files In the following section abold Courier font is used to indicate text that must appear in the file as is whilst an italic Times font is used for text that should be replaced by some appropriate value Comments are in a red Arial Narrow font and should not appear in the file Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 45 5 1 Model parameters Many model parameters take double precision floating point values Floating point arithmetic is a means of doing calculations with non integers and large numbers whilst using a finite number of bits In the case of double precision this is typically an 8 byte word or 64 bits Clearly using this finite number of bits means that not all numbers between 1 7976931348623157E 308 and 1 797693 1348623 157E 308 see usr include float h can be represented accurately Trivially in fact only 2 or just over 10 such numbers can maximally be represented Inevitably therefore floating point arithmetic involves a degree of approximation Whilst this may be acceptable for most intents and purposes double precision giving 15 significant figures of accuracy there are some quite simple cases where inaccuracies ca
85. are given in section 7 which discusses GUI mode in more detail The format of the observer file is given below begin showStrategyColourKey showUseRaster showSuitabilityRaster showProfitabilityRaster showBiophysRaster showManagerRaster showSubPopRaster showStrategyRaster showUseChangeRaster showManagerChangeRaster boolean The Strategy raster shows a colour on each Land Parcel for the Strategy used to determine its Land Use This display shows the key to those colours The value 1 means the raster should be shown the value 0 that it should not For CBRSocialSubPopulations the Strategy corresponds to the mode of decision making e g case base with perfect match case base with imperfect match experimentation boolean Show the Land Parcels coloured by their current Land Use boolean Show the Land Parcels coloured by the most suitable Land Use That is the Land Use best matching the local Biophysical Characteristics and global Climate A cross is drawn through Cells where there is more than one Land Use with equal best match boolean Show the Land Parcels coloured by the most profitable Land Use boolean Show the spatial distribution of the Biophysical Characteristics symbols one property at a time Click on the raster to advance the property displayed boolean Show the Land Parcels coloured by the Land Managers owning them boolean Show the Land Parcels coloured by the Subpopulation of the
86. at 32 0 00000 LandParcelCreation Created land cell at 33 0 00000 LandParcelCreation Created land cell at 34 0 00000 LandParcelCreation Created land cell at 35 0 00000 LandParcelCreation Created land cell at 36 0 00000 LandParcelCreation Created land cell at 37 0 00000 LandParcelCreation Created land cell at 38 0 00000 LandParcelCreation Created land cell at 39 0 00000 LandParcelCreation Added land cell at 20 20 to land parcel ID 51 00000 LandParcelCreation Added land cell at 21 20 to land parcel ID 51 00000 LandParcelCreation Added land cell at 21 21 to land parcel ID 51 00000 LandParcelCreation Added land cell at 20 21 to land parcel ID 51 00000 LandParcelCreation Cell at 19 21 is a blank cell 8 2 29 LandUseChange Shows the update of Land Uses for each Land Parcel each Year Note that information is shown even if the Land Use does not change The following is an example excerpt from one Year s output 00021 LandUseChange Updated land use of parcel 234 at 22 26 from 2 to 3 00021 LandUseChange Updated land use of parcel 214 at 20 26 from 2 to 3 00021 LandUseChange Updated land use of parcel 194 at 18 26 from 3 to 9 00021 LandUseChange Updated land use of parcel 174 at 16 26 from 3 to 9 00021 LandUseChange Updated land use of parcel 154 at 14 26 from 8 to 7 00021 LandUseChange Updated land use of parcel 134 at 12 26 from 7 to 12 00021 LandUseChange Updated land use o
87. at that time The ordering of the episodic memory after consultation 1s then B C R where C is a random ordering of the list H Cl n and R is a random ordering of the list R1 n In terms of the ordering of which case is known to be better than which other case i e using gt for more similar and lt for less similar we know that R1 3 lt H R4 n lt B B gt H Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 22 Either C1 2 lt B and C1 2 gt H or C1 2 incomparable to H Either C3 n lt B or C3 n incomparable to B Thus H represents some kind of a bias to the case base since B must be comparable to it relative to the current state of the world If the state of the world never changes then all best cases are comparable to each other relative to that state of the world If the state of the world does change then for all time steps t B t is either equal to B t 1 or B A has state more similar to S t 1 than B t 1 does where S is the state of the world at time t Remembering that the decision at time is based on the state of the world at time tf 1 The situation is slightly different if a state is found that is equal to the current state of the world Consider the following example episodic memory before consultation H C1 C2 R1 R2 R3 E where E is the case with the state of the world equal to the current state Then the order of the e
88. ations Allocation method selected for land parcel 1597 at 39 36 RandomStrategy by land manager 399 because it is year 0 00000 InitialLandUseAllocations Land manager 399 selected initial land use 1 Oat Non organic for land parcel 1597 at 39 36 using method RandomStrategy 00000 InitialLandUseAllocations Allocation method selected for land parcel 1558 at 38 37 RandomStrategy by land manager 399 because it is year 0 00000 InitialLandUseAllocations Land manager 399 selected initial land use 1 Oat Non organic for land parcel 1558 at 38 37 using method RandomStrategy 00000 InitialLandUseAllocations Allocation method selected for land parcel 1557 at 38 36 RandomStrategy by land manager 399 because it is year 0 00000 InitialLandUseAllocations Land manager 399 selected initial land use 4 Beef Non organic for land parcel 1557 at 38 36 using method RandomStrategy 00000 InitialLandUseAllocations Allocation method selected for land parcel 1600 at 39 39 RandomStrategy by land manager 400 because it is year 0 00000 InitialLandUseAllocations Land manager 400 selected initial land use 6 Oat Non organic for land parcel 1600 at 39 39 using method RandomStrategy 8 2 24 LandManagerChange Shows the update of Land Managers owning each Land Parcel each Year Note that ownership of all Land Parcels is shown not just those with a change of Land Manager The following is an
89. bility 1 0 in the Probabilityl column The number of Strategy lines in the file should correspond to the number entered for NumberOfStrategyC lasses above 5 1 6 Events file The events file is used by Subpopulations belonging to the CBRSocialSubPopulation and CBRStrategySubPopulation classes It consists of one or more events each formatted as follows BEGIN EVENT Event classname The eventclass names are given in Table 5 Response Eventresponse Event responses are one of incProfitSalience incApprovalS alience decP rofitS alience or decApprovals alience Event parameter Event parameter value There may be zero or more of these lines depending on whether the event takes any parameters Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 59 5 1 7 Trigger file The trigger file is used by Subpopulations belonging to the CBRSocialSubPopulation and CBRStrategySubPopulation classes It consists of one or more triggers each formatted as follows BEGIN TRIGGER Trigger class name The trigger class names are given in Table 7 Approval Amount of approval to give if trigger activated floating point Disapproval Amount of disapproval to give if trigger activated floating point Trigger parameter Trigger parameter value There may be zero or more of these lines depending on whether the event takes any parameters One or other of the approval or disapproval amounts would normally be expec
90. bol Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 49 5 1 3 Subpopulation contest file The Subpopulation contest file specifies which Subpopulations will be competing for land ownership in this run of the model There are two slightly different formats for this file depending on whether you want to use a file of Subpopulation in migrant probabilities with varying values Year on Year or whether the probabilities are to remain constant 5 1 3 1 Subpopulation contest file format with constant in migrant probabilities NumberOfSubPopulations Number of Subpopulations in the contest integer ClassForSubPopulations Subpopulation class name One of the Subpopulation classes in Table 1 SubPopulationFile SP file no int SP filename Probability SP prob float The above line should appear the number of times indicated by the NumberOfSubPopulations entry The Subpopulation file number SP file no should start at 1 on the first SubP opulationFile line and increase in steps of 1 SP prob is the probability of choosing a new in migrant or initial Land Manager from that Subpopulation The probabilities must sum to 1 5 1 3 2 Subpopulation contest file format with variable in migrant probabilities NumberOfSubPopulations Number of Subpopulations in the contest integer ClassForSubPopulations Subpopulation class name One of the Subpopulation classes in Table 1 SubPopulationProbabilityFile Subpopulation probability file n
91. cation of cell values can be made to the same georeference in a series of layers each layer covering one allocation of cell values under the same layer heading Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 62 The data in the cells unlike ARC grd file format can be any string not containing whitespace FEARLUS stores in memory all layers read in from the file even those it does not recognise This creates the possibility for example of creating new strategies or reports that use layer data not currently used by FEARLUS The layers recognised or generated by FEARLUS are shown in Table 11 Where a layer is marked Input or Output in this table the direction of data flow depends on whether or not the grid file exists Layer name Input Output Description FEARLUS Biophys Property Inputor Output Use this to pass in the Biophysical Characteristics of Land Cells in the specified Biophysical Characteristics Property These should be given as the name of the Symbol to use Use this to pass in initial allocations of Land Parcels to Land Managers LandManagerGridFileReport Use this to pass in the allocations of Land Cells to Land Parcels FEARLUS LandUselD Initial Input or Output Land Uses to Land Parcels FEARLUS LandUselD Year x Output Generated by LandUseGridFileReport FEARLUS PolicyZone Input or Output Use this to pass in the required Zone in which the Government is to implement its policy if the Government is of a c
92. cels required to have the same Land Use before the reward will be given 4 3 3 Reward for Land Uses with a target coverage The Government classes in this section issue rewards to Land Managers to achieve a target coverage for certain Land Uses Rewards are issued only when the target coverage for an awardable Land Use is not achieved 4 3 3 1 Government class TargetActivityGovernment Description Issues a fixed reward for any Land Use the coverage of which in the policy zone is less than a target Parameter description The zone in which to issue rewards default everywhere LandUse label target For each awardable Land Use gives the target coverage Reward reward The reward per unit area to be given for any awardable Land Use when the coverage is less than the target 4 3 3 2 Government class BudgetTargetActivityGovernment Description Issues a fixed reward for any Land Use the coverage of which in the policy zone is less than a target with a fixed budget that must get spent Parameter description The zone in which to issue rewards default everywhere LandUse label target For each awardable Land Use gives the target coverage Reward reward The reward share per unit area to be given for any awardable Land Use when the coverage is less than the target In fact this parameter is irrelevant Since the rewards are the same for each Land Use all that matters is the number of rewards and the area of the Parcel
93. class CBRFarmScaleProfitLandManager The CBRFarmScaleProfitLandManager class returns to much the same algorithm as the CBRSocialLandManager but using some of the extensions introduced in other classes The option to use imitative or non imitative Strategies rather than the Case Base and Mean Net Approval for deciding whether Social Aspiration is met A UML Diagram of the algorithm is given in Figure 13 Mean Estate Profitper unit area gt Profit Aspiration amp Mean Net Approval from Managers not Disapproved of gt Social Aspiration Keep the same Land Use on all Parcels For each Parcel Rand 0 lt X lt 1 lt CBR Probability Rand 0 lt X lt 1 lt Imitative Probability Use non imitative Strategy Figure 13 UML Activity Diagram showing the decision making algorithm of the CBRFarmScaleProfitLandManager 4 2 1 8 Land Manager class CBRAdviceLandManager Land Managers of the CBRAdviceLandManager class use much the same algorithm as CBRFarmScaleProfitLandManager except that when the Land Manager cannot find a Case in their Episodic Memory they may ask for Advice from other neighbouring Land Managers This Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 28 is done using an Advice Strategy to sort neighbouring Land Managers in the order in which they are to be consulted for Advice Land Managers will offer Advice to any Land Manager of whom they have not Disapproved and who
94. conomy of scale for land use 8 Beef Non organic on land parcel 302 at 30 2 used by land manager 71 with total area 18 2 for this land use 1 00093 Harvest Land manager 71 harvesting yield 8 45389 with income 84 4589 from land parcel 302 at 30 2 with break even threshold 78 Account 19826 2 will be incremented by 6 45891 to 19832 6 00093 Harvest Economy of scale for land use 8 Beef Non organic on land parcel 282 at 28 2 used by land manager 71 with total area 18 2 for this land use 1 Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 98 O00093 Harvest Land manager 71 harvesting yield 12 2313 with income 122 198 from land parcel 282 at 28 2 with break even threshold 78 Account 19832 6 will be incremented by 44 1977 to 19876 8 00093 Harvest Account of land manager 71 decremented by 43 to 19833 8 for farm scale fixed costs 00093 Harvest Account of land manager 71 incremented by 0 to 19833 8 for off farm income 8 2 22 Imitation Confirms the neighbourhood searched by imitative Strategies by writing in the number of times each Land Parcel is consulted This should be 1 for all Land Parcels in the Social Neighbourhood for all currently available imitative Strategies and the verbosity message can be used to confirm there is no undue bias A lot of output is generated the following showing the output for one Land Parcel decision in one Year 00001 Imitation Land parcels consulted by land manager 195 wh
95. coun Accou Accoun Accoun Accoun Accou Accou Accou Accoun Accoun Accoun Accoun Account Accoun Accoun Accoun Account Accou Accoun Accoun Accou Accou nt now 11094 7 t now 2720 75 t now 4362 25 nt now 3827 2 nt now 2596 51 t now 1121 95 nt now 3708 75 nt now 9086 38 t now 4456 16 t now 5135 51 t now 3661 63 nt now 4828 92 nt now 8407 78 nt now 5847 26 now 4232 01 now 4135 57 t now 2919 23 nt now 14511 8 now 4643 78 now 2072 99 t now 2616 09 nt now 14233 1 nt now 8265 42 nt now 5765 25 now 3391 25 now 1328 23 now 3968 21 now 6628 59 now 5422 55 now 9438 95 now 11263 9 now 3328 22 now 4065 76 nt now 3753 18 t now 1619 19 t now 2720 01 nt now 5739 12 nt now 202 538 a Cc a UC ee UC i UC he Cc 7 LC do CL 4 UC 45 UC d CL Eo an Messages confirming loading saving of layers from to the grid file if specified 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 8 2 17 GridFile GridFile GridFile GridFile GridFile GridFile GridFile GridFile GridFile GridFile GridFile GridFile GridFile Created new grid file manual grd Appended Appended Appended Appended Appended Appended Loaded Loaded Loaded Loaded Loaded Loaded layer layer layer layer layer layer layer layer layer layer layer layer GridLayers FEARLUS LandParcelID to gr
96. d Set the number to use in the geodesic distance matrix for nodes in the network that are not connected Default infinity 8 1 17 ParcelLandManagerReport Shows a distribution of the Estate size of the Land Managers the number of Land Managers owning each number of Land Parcels Options e Sorted flag default True Sort in ascending order of number of Land Parcels owned 8 1 18 ParcelStateReport Shows all Land Parcel Biophysical Characteristics property value lists 8 1 19 ParcelSubPopReport Shows the number of Land Parcels owned by Land Managers of each Subpopulation 8 1 20 PollutionGridFileReport Saves the Pollution of the Land Use in each Land Cell to the grid file Warning The Pollution is per Land Parcel and if two or more Cells belong to a Parcel then there will seem to be more Pollution than there is Options These statistics and the means of computing them were supplied in a document circulated in the CAVES Complexity Agents Volatility Evidence and Scale EU FP6 NEST Pathfinder project on Tackling Complexity in Science Document title CAVES Generalization Framework by Paulina Hetman and Piotr Magnuszewsk1 This is arguably a bug since the Pollution should probably be per unit area rather than per Land Parcel Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 89 e GridFile The name of a grid file to save the report to default is the gridFile parameter e NoData The no da
97. d Law A N R 2002 Modeling land use change using agents in the FEARLUS project In Parker D C Berger T Manson S M and McConnell W J eds Agent Based Models of Land Use and Land Cover Change Report and Review of an International Workshop Irvine California USA October 4 7 2001 LUCC Report Series No 6 pp 35 40 Polhill J G Izquierdo L R and Gotts N M 2005 The ghost in the model and other effects of floating point arithmetic Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 8 1 5 http jasss soc surrey ac uk 8 1 5 html Polhill J G Izquierdo L R and Gotts N M 2006 What every agent based modeller should know about floating point arithmetic Environmental Modelling and Software 21 283 309 Polhill J G Koo B Izquierdo L R Dunn S Gotts N M Rothman D S and Ferrier R 2004 Designs for coupling an agent based model of land use change with a spatially explicit hydrochemical model LUCC EFEIA WOTRO Joint International Workshop Integrated Assessment of the Land System The Future of Land Use Institute for Environmental Studies Amsterdam 28 30 October 2004 Polhill J G Parker D C Brown D G and Grimm V 2008 Using the ODD protocol for describing three agent based social simulation models of land use change Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 11 2 3 http jasss soc surrey ac uk 1 1 2 3 html Polhill J G Parker D C and Gotts
98. d Managers can obtain income from harvesting each of their Land Parcels and selling the crop in the market The amount of Yield obtained in a Land Parcel for a particular crop in modell 1 5 depends on two factors the local Biophysical Characteristics of the Land Parcel and the global Climatic conditions Yield is then transformed in the global market into more or less money depending on the global Economic conditions and running costs The following explains this process in detail From version 0 8 3 onwards lookup tables have replaced earlier used bitstrings as the means by which economic returns from Land Use decisions are calculated There are two lookup tables in Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 30 FEARLUS One determines how much Yield is obtained from a particular Land Use decision which is predictably enough termed the Yield lookup table the other is the Gross Income lookup table which determines the price received per unit Yield for each Land Use and state of the Economy The Yield lookup table provides the Yield per unit area for each combination of Land Use Climate and Biophysical Characteristics states The set of symbols determining these states is supplied in the filenames given in the yieldTreeFile and incomeTreeFile parameters and the names of the files containing the tables themselves in the yieldTableFile and incomeTableFile parameters The factors determining Yield and Income ar
99. d Parcels to endow the Land Managers created at the beginning of the run with integer envXSize must be an integer multiple of this parameter value The parameter is ignored if a grid file is being used in read mode i e to load any data at all Number of initial vertical Land Parcels to endow the Land Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 48 Managers created at the beginning of the run with integer envy Size must be an integer multiple of this parameter value The parameter is ignored if a grid file is being used in read mode and contains the FEARLUS LandParcellD layer cellArea Area of a Land Cell floating point xCellsPerParcel If Land Cells are not loaded from a grid file the number of horizontal Cells per Parcel integer envy Size must be an integer multiple of this parameter value The parameter is ignored if a grid file is being used in read mode and contains the FEARLUS LandParcellD layer yCellsPerParcel If Land Cells are not loaded from a grid file the number of vertical Cells per Parcel integer envy Size must be an integer multiple of this parameter value The parameter is ignored if a grid file is being used in read mode i e to load any data at all xllcorner Georeference for lower left X co ordinate of the space floating point This parameter is ignored by FEARLUS but is used when saving grid files yllcorner Georeference for lower left Y co ordinate of the space floating point This pa
100. d parcel 479 at 11 38 with land use 6 4 70202 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 7 05975 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 440 at 10 39 with land use 2 1 60527 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 2 4102 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 439 at 10 38 with land use 1 10 4426 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 15 6788 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Adding scores for yield of land parcels belonging to land manager 139 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 558 at 13 37 with land use 6 11 0115 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 16 533 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 557 at 13 36 with land use 3 4 984 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 7 48312 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 518 at 12 37 with land use 2 0 932038 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 1 39939 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 517 at 12 36 with land use 5 23 4248 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 35 1707 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Adding scores for yield of land parcels belonging to land manager 140 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 560 at 13 39 with land use 5 85 5547 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 128 454 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 559 at 13 38 with land use 4 11 4882 0 years ago Score of
101. dius on various different Neighbourhood Functions clockwise from top left von Neumann Moore triangular and hexagonal The outermost cells of the neighbourhood of the centremost cell is shown for a neighbourhood radius of 1 black 2 dark grey and 3 light grey Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 10 4 1 1 3 Biophysical Characteristics of individual Land Cells Each individual Land Cell has certain Biophysical Characteristics which vary spatially in that each Land Cell has its own individual Biophysical Characteristics but not temporally i e the Characteristics remain unchanged during the course of a run The Biophysical Characteristics are described by a set of symbols that are read in from the Yield symbol tree file specified by a parameter yieldTreeFile This file contains collections of symbols for the Climate the Land Use and the Biophysical Characteristics concepts The name of the concept to use for the Biophysical Characteristics is contained in another parameter biophysGroupName The parameters are named such that each concept is referred to as a group The Biophysical Characteristics are represented by a property value list Each element of the property value list corresponds to a property intended to represent some aspect of the Biophysical Characteristics e g Soil or Gradient and the element itself takes its value from one of a set of symbols belonging to that proper
102. ds tRewards tRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards tRewards tRewards tRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards tRewards tRewards tRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards GridFile Governmen Governmen Governmen Governmen Governmen Governmen Governmen Governmen Governmen Governmen Governmen Issuing reward 10 to land manager 40 Issuing reward 10 to land manager 41 Issuing reward 10 to land manager 42 Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Land Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager Manager 56 45 65 67 36 44 LS 78 25 23 33 43 53 83 86 62 99 49 32 42 BZ 9 3 96 90 70 50 10 A O1 N 2 21 accepts reward o
103. e The report output is designed to be highly structured making it easy to parse using appropriately written software It is also intended to be readable with spreadsheet applications using a tab delimiter The output consists of two sections the parameters and the report itself The parameters section begins with the line BEGIN lt tab gt Parameters and includes the following information e The version of the model in this case modell 1 5 Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 86 The path used to the executable command The version of Swarm The real and effective user IDs The name operating system and CPU architecture of the machine running the model The date the model was run The seed s for the simulation Full details of the parameter settings including the model Subpopulations and Climate and Economy change probabilities The parameter section then ends with the line END lt tab gt Parameters Following the parameter section the output from reports is given for each Year in which the configuration file specified a report to be made The format of the output for each Year is as detailed below BEGIN lt tab gt Report for end of year lt tab gt Year of report BEGIN lt tab gt Report class name Report output goes here END lt tab gt Report class name BEGIN lt tab gt Another report class name Another report output goes here END lt tab gt Another report class name Any othe
104. e Land Use on all Parcels For each Parcel Expected State Parcel Last Climate Last Economy Foreach Land Use Best Case Case Base best match for Expected State Land Use NoCasefound Estimated Utility Land Use Profit Aspiration Profit Salience Social Aspiration Social Salience Estimated Utility Land Use Profit Outcome Best Case Profit Salience Social Outcome Best Case Social Salience Land Use of Parcel Random selection among those with maximum Estimated Utility Figure 9 UML Activity Diagram summarising the decision making algorithm for CBRSocialLandManagers 4 2 1 3 1 Estimation of the Social Acceptability and the Profit provided by each Land Use CBRSocialLandManagers use a simple form of Case Based Reasoning CBR to estimate the Social Acceptability and the Profit provided by a particular Land Use in a certain Land Parcel CBR basically consists of solving a problem by remembering a previous similar situation and by reusing information and knowledge of that situation Aamodt and Plaza 1994 The main component of the CBR selection algorithm used here is the Land Manager s Case Base or Episodic Memory This Episodic Memory is a set of ordered lists of cases Each case is a contextualised piece of knowledge representing an experience Watson 1997 Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 19 CBRSocialLandManagers calculate estimates by retrieving
105. e specified amount of disapproval 11 5 WorseLUThanMefTrigger This trigger will approve or disapprove but not both of a Land Manager e Find the pollution generated by the most polluting Land Use applied by this Land Manager Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 113 e Find the pollution generated by the most polluting Land Use applied by the neighbouring Land Manager e Disapprove of the neighbour if the most polluting Land Use is more polluting than that of this Land Manager e Otherwise approve of the neighbour 12 Bibliography This section covers papers referred to in the manual and further supplies a comprehensive set of references to FEARLUS work Aamodt A and Plaza E 1994 Case Based Reasoning Foundational Issues Methodological Variations and System Approaches AJ Communications IOS Press Vol 7 no 1 pp 39 59 Edmonds B and Hales D 2003 Replication replication and replication Some hard lessons from model alignment Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 6 4 11 http jasss soc surrey ac uk 6 4 11 html Gotts N M and Polhill J G 2007 Using collective rewards and social interactions to control agricultural pollution Explorations with FEARLUS W In Amblard F ed nterdisciplinary Approaches to the Simulation of Social Phenomena Fourth Conference of the European Social Simulation Association Toulouse France 10 14 September 2007 pp 253 262
106. e thus now completely under user control these factors being set by the arbitrary properties and symbols for each of the Biophysical Characteristics Climate Economy and Land Use property value lists Note however that the more such factors are included the greater the combinatorial demand for data Since Biophysical Characteristics vary at Cell level the Yield lookup table is consulted in turn for each Cell in the Parcel The Yield for the Parcel is the sum of the Cell Yields The Gross Income for the Parcel is then the Parcel Yield multiplied by the appropriate entry in the Gross Income lookup table From the Parcel Gross Income a value is subtracted for Parcel scale costs to give the Parcel Net Income This value is given by the product of the breakEvenThreshold parameter which represents a Parcel scale break even threshold per unit area assuming no Land Use Economy of Scale the area of the Land Parcel and the Economy of Scale of the Land Use The Economy of Scale is a factor in the range 0 1 determined by the Land Manager s total area allocated to a particular Land Use If the Economy of Scale is 1 then there is no Economy of Scale Once the Parcel Net Income has been calculated for each Parcel owned by a Land Manager the Farm Scale Fixed Costs are subtracted from the total Parcel Net Income to give the amount to increment the Land Manager s Account by This is summarised in the formula my E EU E 18 60 b 4 sU 20 mF
107. ed is shown in the title bar of the window The run shown in a and b has two groups Pollution vs time Pollution vs time Pomsion SS ST A a 0 a 10 150 time 2 a o Figure 52 showPollutionGraph 1 7 3 Debugging displays Various options in the Observer file allow the display of information about memory usage in FEARLUS which uses Swarm zones to store objects The showXxxZoneDetail options give more detailed information breaking down the contents of the zone by class Some example output for showCaseZoneDetail 1 follows AssocArray 201 List linked 3485 Array Ci 201 Tuple 269 CBRCase 678 CBRState 678 LTGroupState 1356 CBROutcome 678 Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 85 Size of Zones Cx Size of Zones 3 i ob oa D o oe z T Oo E 5 Figure 53 showZoneGraph 1 with showObserverZone 1 showModelZone 1 showScratchZone 1 showManagerZone 1 and showCaseZone 1 8 Output There are three forms of output the model can be made to generate With the D option various debugging verbosity messages will be written to stdout which can be useful for checking the inner workings of a number of key methods in the model The debugging output is not overly well structured however making it difficult to reproduce what went on in the model automatically Report outputs are designed to provide a flexible programming env
108. een 276 and 296 at 28 31 GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 296 at 28 30 is a neighbour of 316 GUINeighbourhoodDetail and not visited already GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 296 at 28 30 drawing neighbours of GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 276 at 27 30 is not a neighbour of drawing a line between 276 and 296 at 28 30 GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 295 at 28 29 is a neighbour of 316 GUINeighbourhoodDetail and not visited already GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 295 at 28 29 drawing neighbours of GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 275 at 27 29 is not a neighbour of drawing a line between 275 and 295 at 28 29 GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 295 at 28 28 is a neighbour of 316 316 at 316 at 316 at 316 at 316 at at 30 316 at 316 at 316 at 316 at Accessing layer FEARLUS LandManagerID Initial with value 60 in cell Accessing layer FEARLUS SubPopulationID Initial with value 1 in cell 30 30 30 Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 97 00013 GUINeighbourhoodDetail and not visited already 00013 GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 295 at 28 28 drawing neighbours of 316 at 30 30 00013 GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 275 at 27 28 is not a neighbour of 316 at 30 30 drawing a line between 275 and 295 at 28 28 00013 GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 294 at 28 27 is not a neighbour of 316
109. egy yieldcDist The bid price is a constant multiple of the yieldcMin most recent Yield of the Land Parcel for sale yieldcMax The coefficient is taken from the yieldcMean Subpopulation distribution yieldcDist yieldcVar normal or uniform Table 8 The Bidding Strategies available and their configuration parameters All Land Managers in the neighbourhood of a Land Parcel being put up for sale are notified of the availability of the Land Parcel If the socialNeighbourSales parameter is 1 then the social neighbourhood is used otherwise the physical neighbourhood is used Each Land Manager has an individual Land Offer Threshold which specifies the amount of Wealth they must have before they will consider putting in a bid for a Land Parcel Assuming the Land Offer Threshold is exceeded Land Managers then proceed to make a bid price for the Land Parcel using a Bidding Strategy If the bid price is negative the potential bid is ignored From this set of potential bids a Land Parcel Selection Strategy is then used to choose which bids will actually be made The total of all bids made must ensure the Land Offer Threshold is still in the Land Manager s Account The Land Allocator is then notified of all the bids made If a bid is negative or zero the Land Allocator ignores it The Bidding and Selection Strategies available are listed in Table 8 and Table 9 Note that the configuration options for the Bidding Strategies apply at
110. eighbourhood weighting floating point This parameter should only appear if neighbourWeightDist is uniform or truncated normal Mean neighbourhood weighting floating point This parameter should only appear if neighbourWeightDist is normal or truncated normal Neighbourhood weighting variance floating point This parameter should only appear if neighbourWeightDist is normal or truncated normal Distribution from which to set the probability of imitation of member Land Managers This parameter should either be normal truncated normal or uniform Minimum imitation probability floating point This parameter should only appear if imitateProbDist is uniform or truncated normal Maximum imitation probability floating point This parameter should only appear if imitateProbDist is uniform or truncated normal Mean imitation probability floating point This parameter should only appear if imitateP robDist is normal or truncated normal Imitation probability variance floating point This parameter should only appear if imitateP robDist is normal Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 aspirationThresholdDist aspirationThresholdMin aspirationThresholdMax aspirationThresholdMean aspirationThresholdVar neighbourNoiseDist neighbourNoiseMin neighbourNoiseMax
111. en selecting land use 5 Barley Organic for land parcel 750 at 18 29 using YieldAverageWeightedTemporalCopyingStrategy 0123456789012345678901234567890123456789 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000111100000000000000000000 0000000000000000111100000000000000000000 0000000000000000111111000000000000000000 0000000000000000111111000000000000000000 0000000000000000001111000000000000000000 00000000000000000011110000
112. en stdout should be redirected to dev null to discard it particularly if you are running the process in the background this works on both Unix and Cygwin see below for an example command Successful termination is indicated by a 0 exit status More on the output options can be found in section 8 The p flag should also be used to specify the model parameters for the run and unless the run is being used to test the model the s flag should be given to specify an arbitrary seed or S with a specific seed Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 70 Bear in mind that using the s flag to vary the seed could result in duplicate seeds being used though this is not very likely as the s flag generates a seed from the system clock and process ID There are two ways of approaching this either check the output all the output options give the seed used and discard duplicates or prepare a list of unique seeds in advance for each sequence of runs and cycle through them using the S option The latter option would require some sort of script to start off each run Another point to note for series of runs is that the a flag will append any reports specified with the R option to the file specified with the r option For large numbers of runs this can prevent directories being cluttered with large numbers of report files A typical command to run the model in batch mode would look like this full path to modell 1 5 p
113. enting a reward for Land Uses The following classes of Government offer various ways of issuing rewards to Land Managers for using particular Land Uses Some of the classes may also be configured to fine Managers for using particular Land Uses 4 3 1 1 Government class RewardActivityGovernment Description Issues a specified reward to Land Managers based on the Land Uses they apply Parameter description The zone in which to issue a reward default everywhere LandUse label reward For each awardable Land Use a reward per unit area should be specified Negative rewards are treated as fines 4 3 1 2 Government class BudgetRewardActivityGovernment Issues rewards as a share of a fixed budget which must be spent unless no one is awardable LandUse label reward For each awardable Land Use the associated reward parameter specifies a weight per unit area of the budget the Land Manager will get Negative rewards are treated as fines implemented as specified Budget budget The budget to use A Land Manager m s reward r m p for the use of Land Use u p on land parcel p is given by b gq ae where a is the area of p ruo is the reward weight for Land Use u p specified by the reward parameter associated with the Land Use default 0 b is the budget and q iterates over all awarded Land Parcels in the policy zone to get the total reward weight Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 a7
114. er this may include their Biophysical Characteristics and recent Land Uses applied and Income generated though currently no available imitative strategies use Biophysical Characteristics information This is intended to simulate transfer of information between Land Managers on a social basis Some imitative strategies available in the model use physical neighbourhoods instead however The physical and social neighbourhoods are contrasted in Figure 6 Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 15 eas Re SS A m wi x ea 0 0 m PX aks bake Bo _ DBU HA ED HI S x BEG BEE o FERRO Mee st tiv iv irde Figure 6 The social and physical neighbourhoods contrasted Each cell in the Environment above is given a letter according to the Land Manager who owns it The solid line denotes the boundary of the physical neighbourhood of Land Manager Z in an Environment with a von Neumann neighbourhood radius 1 These consist of those Parcels that share a border with one of the Parcels owned by Z By contrast the social neighbourhood shown by a grey shading to the included cells consists of all Land Parcels owned by Land Managers with Land Parcels in the physical neighbourhood of Z Another parameter that imitative strategies may or may not use as part of their algorithm is the Neighbourhood Weighting neighbourWeightDist for which a range of values for Land Managers is specified at the Subpopulatio
115. er data is written for all cells in the grid starting at the top separate by white space By convention each row is put on one line Layer 2 name Layer 2 data and so on for all layers to be specified in the file At least one layer must be specified 5 1 14 Government file The Government file contains parameter settings for the Government class The format is case sensitive and specified with one parameter per line thus Government parameter Government parameter value The Government parameters used by different classes are detailed in section 4 3 Some parameters merit further explanation and these are detailed below 5 1 14 1 Government file Zone parameter Many Government classes use the Zone parameter to specify the cells that appear in the Zone A Parcel is in the Zone if any of its Cells are in the Zone The Zone parameter can be specified in a number of ways depending on the Zone required To stipulate that all Cells are in the Policy Zone use the following Zone all The above is the default option so Government classes using the Zone parameter needn t specify it However it is probably better to be explicit To select a random proportion of Cells for the Policy Zone use Zone Proportion percentage To use a rectangle of Cells for the Policy Zone do Zone xl yll xur yur where x yl is the co ordinate of the lower left cell of the rectangle and xur yur is that of the upper
116. ers to allocate Cells to Parcels If a grid file was specified exists and contains a FEARLUS Biophys_X layer where X is a Biophysical Characteristics symbol property name then allocate Biophysical Characteristics as per that layer Otherwise or for all Biophysical Characteristics not specified in the grid file assign each Cell random initial Biophysical Characteristics with each symbol within a property having equal probability of being selected for each Cell If a grid file has not been specified then use the clumper if specified If a grid file 1s specified but does not exist then write the Land Parcel IDs and Biophysical Characteristics to the grid file e Create the Land Uses If a Land Use file has been specified and it exists then load the Land Use property value lists and their associated pollution and economy of scale from the Land Use file If the nLandUse parameter is 0 or equal to the number of possible Land Uses given the symbols in each property then create all the possible Land Uses from the set of symbols in each property assigned to the Land Use concept Otherwise create the specified Land Uses using random choices of symbols for each property Assign the Land Uses a random pollution from a normal distribution specified by the pollutionMean and pollutionVar parameters and no economy of scale e Create the Government 4 4 1 Initial schedule e Determine the initial Climate which may involve it being loaded from a file if a
117. es of every Land Cell in the Environment are its set of neighbouring Land Cells and its Biophysical Characteristics Land Cells are also used as a repository for all information contained in a grid file if this is given in parameter gridFile 4 1 1 1 Layering of geographical concepts in FEARLUS Climate amp Economy y 7 Land Ownership Land Use Decision O A Biophysical Characteristics Figure 1 Layering of spatial concepts in FEARLUS Figure 1 shows how geographical concepts are layered in FEARLUS At the bottom sit the Land Cells which are assumed to be the minimum spatial units and store the Biophysical Characteristics and have an area Changing the area of the cells allows you to vary the resolution of the spatial representation and biophysical model At the next level up are the Land Parcels each consisting of a number of contiguous Land Cells These are the units of decision making for Land Use in that each Parcel is assumed to have a single Land Use At the next level up are the Farms each consisting of a set of Land Parcels These are the units of decision maker all Land Parcels in one Farm are assumed to have the same Land Manager The whole farm is sold but bought as individual land parcels At the top layer are the Climate and Economy which do not vary spatially in model 1 1 5 Note that certain Cells coloured black in the Biophysical Characteristics layer can be declared to be blank Such Cells play no part
118. es the level of information detail roughly measured as number of different types of messages we want to obtain from the model as it runs There are different types of informative messages that the model can produce and these are named according to the aspect of the model they refer to e g Climate Economy Decision Each of these types of message has a particular verbosity level which determines the minimum level of verbosity at which they will be printed Table 1 Thus when running a simulation those types of messages with a verbosity level no greater than the verbosity level specified for the run are printed Hence a high verbosity level in a run means potentially many messages More technically for debugging output use the D flag The argument to this flag consists of an optional integer specifying the verbosity level for the run followed by an optional list of types of messages to include or exclude The argument can be only an integer only a list of message types each of them preceded by or or both but there must be a non null argument The integer which if present must appear before the list of messages specifies the level of verbosity required in the run Messages are strings of characters printed to standard output by the model at potentially every time step and which refer to some particular aspect of the model e g Climate Economy Decision that also gives a name to the message s type Each type of message
119. ese data can also be saved to a grid file if the grid file specified in the parameter gridFile does not exist and its use is stipulated useGridFile It is also possible to use a GridFileReport to save Yield Income Pollution and Account information to the grid file GridFileReport operates like any other report allowing these data to be saved for any Year during the run By default the data are saved to the gridFile but the file to use for any particular report can be specified as an option to the report section 8 1 has more details These will be written as floating point numbers Land Parcels are neighbours if they have neighbouring Land Cells 4 1 2 Climate and Economy Climate and Economy are also represented using property value lists The symbols for the Climate are specified along with the Biophysical Characteristics in the Yield symbol tree file in a group with name climateGroupName whilst those for the Economy are specified in the Income symbol tree file incomeTreeFile in a group with name economyGroupName In contrast to the Biophysical Characteristics the Climate and Economy do not vary spatially but may change with each cycle of the model There are two alternative ways in which each of these property value lists can be set specified by useClimateFile useEconomyFile a Loading them from a file climateFile economyFile containing the property value lists to use see section 5 1 9 b Using model parameters to control a s
120. f 160 accep accep accep accep accep accep accep accep accep accep accep accep accep accep accep accep accep accep accep accep accep accep accep accep accep accep M a d A d P aa 41 Ss a d d j E p EE E 4 d p a p ae E accepts he tS ts ts ES d accep accep accep accep accepts accepts tS ts ts tS tS tS tS tS tS tS ts ts ts LS tS tS tS ts ts ts ts is ts tS ts tS reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward reward GovernmentFines GovernmentRewards If the Government class issues fines or rewards to Land Managers these messages will confirm of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 150 70 90 40 70 90 40 110 170 140 70 40 60 280 70 DAO 50 200 130 190 90 60 40 200 80 150 120 LTO 90 41 accepts reward of 50 51 accepts reward of 50 71 accepts reward of 110 109 accepts reward of 10 T50 TLO 130 180 Accou Accoun Accoun Accou Accou Accoun Accou Accou Accoun Accoun Accoun Accou Accou Accou Accoun Accoun Ac
121. f parcel 133 at 12 24 from 7 to 7 00021 LandUseChange Updated land use of parcel 132 at 12 22 from 7 to 7 8 2 30 LandUseCreation Messages pertaining to the creation of Land Uses e g O0000 LandUseCreation Created land use 1 Wheat Organic LU Wheat Organic 1 569747051519291e 01 0 000000000000000e 00 0 000000000000000e 00 1 000000000000000e 00 8 2 31 LandUseMatch This is a legacy verbosity message that is no longer issued 8 2 32 LandUseMatchDetail This is a legacy verbosity message that is no longer issued 8 2 33 Learning Output obtained here depends on Land Manager class The following is an example for the CBRSocialParcelLandManager class providing details of case base update and processing of Events O0002 Learning Land Manager 412 added the following case to their case base CASE Time 2 Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 101 STATE Biophysical Characteristics land parcel 32 0 Climate LowVar Cold Economy Bear LowXch DECISION Land Use ID 12 OUTCOME Profit 127040090 Approval 7 O0002 Learning Event ThresholdDisapprovalEvent has happened to land manager 412 O0002 Learning Land manager 412 increased approval salience by 0 135393 to 3 62844 0O0002 Learning Event NoRewardEvent has happened to land manager 412 O0002 Learning Land manager 412 increased approval salience by 0 135393 to 3 76384 O0002 Learning
122. f randomly selected Land Cells rather than the whole state Both clumpers have a parameter nCycles by default 100 which specifies the number of pairs of Land Cells to randomly select It is not currently possible to clump some symbols whilst leaving others with the random allocation Biophysical Characteristics loaded from a grid file can also not be clumped 4 1 1 4 Composition of Land Parcels and georeferencing The Land Parcels each consist of one or more contiguous Land Cells You can use the xCellsPerParcel and yCellsPerParcel parameters to create a regular rectangular grid of Land Parcels from the Land Cells automatically Alternatively model 1 1 5 has a facility for writing to and reading from text files with a format that is close to ARC s grid text file format though not actually readable by ARC without some editing and some editing would also be required for a file created by ARC to be readable by FEARLUS see 5 1 13 for more details You specify the file to use with the gridFile parameter and whether or not to use it with the useGridFile parameter This allows arbitrary groupings of Land Cells into Land Parcels and a non rectangular simulated area by specifying blank Cells using the nodata_value field in the grid file Grid files can be used to load in various aspects of the initial state of the model The following details the layers in the grid file that you can specify Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 1
123. file name was given and the file exists If a file name was given but the file does not exist the Climate property value lists will be saved to that file each cycle Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 4 4 2 5 44 Determine the initial Economy which may involve it being loaded from a file if a file name was given and the file exists If a file name was given but the file does not exist the Economy property value lists will be saved to that file each cycle Create the Land Managers and assign them to the Land Parcels and Subpopulations If a grid file is specified exists and contains the FEARLUS SubPopulationID Initial or FEARLUS LandManagerID Initial layers then this information will be used in the assignment Otherwise parameters exist that allow Land Managers to be initially assigned more than one Land Parcel Essentially they specify the size of a rectangle of Land Parcels to give to each Land Manager A whole number of these rectangles must fit into the Environment grid If the grid file is specified but did not exist when the simulation started then the initial assignments of Land Managers to Land Parcels and Subpopulations will be saved Each Land Manager then determines the initial Land Use of the Land Parcel s they own Determine the Pollution from each Land Parcel Calculate the Yield from each Land Parcel If a Government agent has been specified then it undertakes its actions here Land Managers
124. ge of Land Managers vs time Ex Age of Land Managers vs time eee Poikki 15 z 10 5 0 7 Tl 0 50 100 150 time Figure 21 showAgeGraph 1 Wealth of Land Managers vs t Kax Wealth of Land Managers vs time w a E a z ra a D Figure 23 showDeathGraph 1 Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 74 Land Parcels Owned by Land M ox Land Parcels Owned by Land Managers number of land parcels Figure 24 showParcelsOwnedGraph 1 Land Managers Distribution by number of Land Parcels owned Land Managers Distribution by number of Land Parcels owned thers 4 0 0333333 3 NumberO fLandManagers 8 amp i 123456 7 8 1011 1213 1415 16 17 18 1920 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 2829 331 32 3334 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 4950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 6061 6263 64 6566 67 68 6970 7172 73 7475 7677 7879 30 81 LandParcels Figure 25 showManagersDist 1 s O HHHH COCO BIg Figure 26 showSubPopRaster 1 Black lines are drawn between Parcels owned by different Land Managers white lines between Land Cells belonging to different Land Parcels Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 75 7 1 1 1 SubPopulation class Subpopulation displays Experimenters Experimenters pen managers Pai 0 125 0 25 0 375 05 0 625 0 75 0 875 1 imitate probability Figure 27 showImitProbDist 1 wi
125. ges were generated concerning fork which were addressed by entering the rebaseall command to the bash prompt Linux Paul Johnson has RPMs for various versions of Linux which worked fine once all prerequisite RPMs were installed You should make sure when installing Linux that all the development packages are installed to get needed header files Linux x86 64 Non GUI versions of Swarm are much simpler to compile from source as less prerequisite software is needed oddly the XPM libraries were still needed In some cases it may be necessary to build a new version of gcc if the version supplied is old lt 4 0 or does not include Obj C GUI versions proved more challenging on 64 bit machines as some of the prerequisite software does not compile successfully on 64 bit machines To get round this pass the m32 flag to gcc If you are building a version of Swarm to include javaswarm then you must use shared libraries Solaris Compiling Swarm on Solaris requires much more in the way of prerequisite software than other platforms Mostly this is to ensure that GNU versions of tools are available In addition to the prerequisite software stated on the Swarm website you should install binutils fileutils gcc make gperf sed tar and for CVS versions of Swarm you will also need autotools Appendix 3 Known Bugs and Issues 1 On Cygwin closing some of the graphs causes Tcl Tk errors specifically those graphs e g approving appro
126. gger Approval 0 Disapproval I Land use symbols Management Non organic Trigger class LandUseGroupTrigger Approval 1 Disapproval 0 Land use symbols Management Organic End of triggers Minimum profit salience distribution uniform Minimum 1 Maximum 2 Minimum approval salience distribution uniform Minimum 2 Maximum 4 Salience margin distribution uniform Minimum 4 Maximum 8 Salience adjustment distribution uniform Minimum 0 125 Maximum 0 5 Profit aspiration threshold distribution uniform Minimum 5 Maximum 5 Approval aspiration threshold distribution uniform Minimum 3 Maximum 3 Event list Event class NeighbourDisapprovalEvent Event action incApprovalSalience Event class NoRewardEvent Event action decProfitSalience Event class LandParcelSoldEvent Event action incProfitSalience End of events Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 Sub population Probability of Land Manager class Initial account distribution Probability of selling up distribution Incomer offer price distribut Land offer threshol LL 2 Label ion tion d distribu Bidding s trategy class 104 Productivists land manager belonging to this sub population CBRSocialParcelLandManager normal Mean uniform Minim uniform Minim WealthMultipleBiddingStrategy uniform Minim 0 3 5 50 Variance 10 um 0 Maximum 0 um 5 Maximum 5 um 10 Maximum 10
127. gger LandUseS ymbols Approve or disapprove of any aspect of the Land Use applied by a Land Manager on a Land Parcel The LandUseSymbols parameter is a comma separated list of property symbol pairs belonging to the Land Use symbol group which if they co occur on a Parcel will activate the trigger Combining several instances of this Trigger allows for disjunction and potentially quite sophisticated approval and disapproval rules for Land Use Neighbour ollutionT rigger Approve of neighbours whose mean pollution is less than the Land Manager and disapprove of those whose mean pollution is more ThresholdPollutionTrigger PollutionThreshold Disapprove of a Land Manager if the pollution exceeds the specified threshold on any of their Land Parcels WorseLUThanMeT rigger Find the most polluting Land Use used by the Land Manager Each neighbour using a more polluting Land Use will be disapproved of and all other neighbours will be approved of Table 7 A summary of the Trigger classes available Starred classes could consistently have non zero settings for both approval and disapproval 4 2 4 Land Parcel transfer ELMMO0 2 If and only if the parameter allowEstateGrowth is equal to 1 Land Managers can own multi Parcel Estates When this is allowed the transfer of Land Parcels between Land Managers is done using ELMM ELMM stands for Endogenised Land Market Model ELMMO 1 is discussed in a paper to ESSA 2005 Polhill Parker a
128. gt Terminal application in Windows gunzip G TEARLUS modell 1 5 tar gz tar xi ed modelLl 1 5 make fearlus If the file fearlus verby is not included in the distribution you can build it with the following command make F Makefile all fearlus verby The application should compile successfully without error though some warnings may be created depending on which version of gcc you are using creating the executable modell 1 5 on a Unix platform or modell 1 5 exe on Windows Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 3 Synopsis and command line options In the synopsis below curly brackets are used to denote one of a series of options separated by a vertical bar for an element value square brackets are used to denote an optional element and angle brackets lt gt to describe some value the user should provide Greyed out options denote elements that are either deprecated or ignored Pear lie 25 s S lt seede X lt seed TIME DEFAULT gt LSZ lt seed TIME gt m lt RNG class gt b m lt mode gt f v sR xreport Gontigqurationm file gt r areport curput files eal D lt verbosity specification o lt observer file gt lO lt entology file gt U lt ontology URIS lt entology class es G grid URLS g lt grid User D gt H lt Gqrid description lt grid client java path gt p lt parameter file gt fFearlus li1
129. h of Economy property value lists than are used in the model run then once those in the file are used up random property value lists are generated using the probabilities in economyChangeP robF ile Flag indicating whether or not to use the economyFile Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 economyChangeProbFile climateFile useClimateFile climateChangeProbFile maxYear infiniteTime pollutionDist pollutionMin pollutionMax pollutionMean pollutionVar subPopFile breakEvenThreshold farmScaleFixedCosts farmScaleFixedCostsFile vickrey allowEstateGrowth socialNeighbourSales niIinitXParcels ninitYParcels 47 Again the file won t be used unless the corresponding use parameter 1 and the load save behaviour is the same File to load the Economy property value list change probabilities from Unfortunately the economyChangeProbF ile must exist and have a valid format even if an existent economyF ile has enough Years of property value lists File to use to load or save Climate property value lists from Flag indicating whether or not to use the climateFile climateF ile behaviour is just the same as economyF ile behaviour File to load the Climate property value list change probabilities from Unfortunately the climateChangeProbF ile must exist and have a valid format even if an existent climateF ile has enough Years of property value lists Number of iterations of annual cycle
130. he requested time series Numerous time series are available The default somewhat mislabelled AIl is to show Pollution the total Pollution in the Environment Population the number of Land Managers LandUse for each Land Use the number of Land Parcels to which it is applied Suitability for each Land Use the number of Land Parcels for which it is one of the most suitable 1 e maximally Yield generating Profitability for each Land Use the number of Parcels for which it is one of the most profitable i e maximally Wealth generating LandUseMarket for each Land Use its current Market Value 1 e the amount returned from the Income lookup table given the current state of the Economy SubPopBids for each Subpopulation the average amount bid by member Land Managers for Land Parcels SubPopCount for each Subpopulation the number of member Land Managers SubPopParcels for each Subpopulation the number of Parcels owned by its members SubPopBankruptcies for each Subpopulation the number of These statistics and the means of computing them were supplied in a document circulated in the CAVES Complexity Agents Volatility Evidence and Scale EU FP6 NEST Pathfinder project on Tackling Complexity in Science Document title CAVES Generalization Framework by Paulina Hetman and Piotr Magnuszewsk1 As were these Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008
131. he same Land Manager class follow the same decision making algorithm to allocate Land Uses to their Land Parcels but remember that each Land Manager may have this decision making algorithm parameterised in different ways The following considers each of the Land Manager classes in turn Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 14 4 2 1 1 Land Manager classes LandManager and PositiveLandManager The decision making process of Land Managers that instantiate the class LandManager or the class PositiveLandManager is sketched in Figure 5 The underlying structure consists of three main elements three different ways in which the Land Manager might choose a Land Use according to contextual factors namely satisficing imitation and innovation A fourth element not shown in the diagram and entirely artefactual specifies how the Land Use will be decided in the initialisation phase of the model usually a Random Strategy is used here Yield gt Aspiration Threshold er Use satisticing strategy Rand 0 lt X lt 1 lt Imitative Probabili aaa Use imitative strategy Use innovative strategy Figure 5 UML Activity Diagram of underlying structure of the Land Use Decision Algorithm employed by Land Managers belonging to the SubPopulation class Different Subpopulations may specify different ranges of Aspiration Thresholds aspirationThresholdDist for their Land Managers These ranges can be specified using eit
132. her a uniform distribution with given minimum and maximum Aspiration Thresholds aspirationThresholdMin and aspirationThresholdMax or a normal distribution with the mean and variance being specified using aspirationThresholdMean and aspirationThresholdVar If the Yield of the decision Parcel meets or exceeds the Aspiration Threshold of the Land Manager then the Manager uses a satisficing strategy A typical satisficing strategy is the Habit Strategy just use the Land Use that was used last year on the Land Parcel Thus the use of Aspiration Thresholds represents a satisficing element to Land Manager behaviour 1i e the acceptance of a course of action which is good enough as opposed to a riskier attempt to find the optimum Simon 1955 In this way Land Manager decision making behaviour has some basis in established theory The satisficing element may be eliminated in a Subpopulation by setting the minimum threshold higher than the maximum possible Income If the Aspiration Threshold is not met then Land Managers have an individual propensity to choose a Land Use either by imitation or innovation This is simulated using a probability imitateProbDist and Subpopulations specify a range of values again using either a normal or uniform distribution that their members have for this probability An imitative strategy uses only information about Land Parcels belonging to Land Managers in the social neighbourhood of the Land Manag
133. hresholdPollutionTrigger WorseLUThanMeTrigger BIBLIOGRAPHY APPENDIX 1 TROUBLESHOOTING APPENDIX 2 SWARM INSTALLATION NOTES APPENDIX 3 KNOWN BUGS AND ISSUES 110 110 110 110 110 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 112 112 112 112 112 112 112 113 115 115 116 1 Introduction This document outlines the usage of the FEARLUS modell 1 5 agent based model of land use change FEARLUS was developed at the Macaulay Institute by Nick Gotts Alistair Law and Gary Polhill with contributions from Lee Ann Sutherland Luis Izquierdo and Bill Adam whilst ELMM an additional component to simulate land markets was developed by Nick Gotts and Gary Polhill together with Dawn Parker from George Mason University Various government classes were developed in collaboration with Alessandro Gimona at the Macaulay Institute and Ben Davies at the University of Aberdeen Business School Ontology features were developed in collaboration with Pete Edwards Edoardo Pignotti and Alun Preece at the University of Aberdeen Alun has since moved to Cardiff University Reports on networks time series and spatial autocorrelation were developed in collaboration with Paulina Hetman and Piotr Magnuszewski from Wroclaw University of Technology Model 1 1 5 is a discrete event spatially explicit agent based model of land use change released under the GNU General Public Licence Note that the FEARLUS software distribution now comes w
134. ice 0 23301 made to use imitative strategy probability 1 O00008 DecisionAlgorithm Allocation method selected for land parcel 873 at 21 32 HabitStrategy by land manager 1799 because the income per unit area 38 5537 is at or above the threshold 31 5377 8 2 10 DecisionAlgorithmDetail More details on the decision algorithm process The message displayed depends on the Strategy and the class of Land Manager Note that Yield in what follows is in fact Parcel gross Income 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Using yield average weighted copying strategy of land manager 119 to determine land use for land parcel 438 at 10 37 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 478 at 11 37 with land use 3 6 52427 0 years ago 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 477 at 11 36 with land use 3 7 31036 0 years ago 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 438 at 10 37 with land use 5 21 5991 0 years ago 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 437 at 10 36 with land use 5 11 0888 0 years ago 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Adding scores for yield of land parcels belonging to land manager 120 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 480 at 11 39 with land use 2 0 996947 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 1 49685 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of lan
135. id file manual grd FEARLUS Biophys LCAClass to grid file manual grd FEARLUS Biophys Slope to grid file manual grd x FEARLUS SubPopulationID Initial to grid file manual grd FEARLUS LandManagerID Initial to grid file manual grd FEARLUS LandUseID Initial to grid file manual grd FEARLUS LandParcelID from grid file manual grd FEARLUS Biophys LCAClass from grid file manual grd FEARLUS Biophys Slope from grid file manual grd FEARLUS SubPopulationID Initial from grid file manual grd FEARLUS LandManagerID Initial from grid file manual grd FRARLUS LandUseID Initial from grid file manual grd Detailed messages on setting and accessing information in the grid Some examples follow Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 22 00000 GridLayers 20 GridLayers Set GridLayers Set GridLayers Set GridLayers Set GridLayers Set GridLayers Set GridLayers 36 36 8 2 18 Indication of colourmap information 00000 GUI 8 2 19 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 00000 ANANN NQ AAQQA 8 2 20 Details of the process used when a Cell is left clicked in the Land Use raster to decide where to draw boundaries between neighbours and non neighbours of the clicked cell see Figure 44 b A brief excerpt of the kind of output obtained follows 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013 00013
136. igure 8 for a particular Land Parcel In any case the order in which Land Parcels are considered will never prevent the Land Manager from remembering one of the most appropriate cases for each specific Land Parcel It may affect only which particular case is selected among a set of cases where all of them are perceived as equally appropriate Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 20 The estimates for each Land Use are taken directly from the most appropriate case for the specific Land Use in the considered Land Parcel given the current perceived state of the world The two factors that affect which case is most appropriate are recency and similarity between the Land Manager s perception of the current state of the world and that at the time the case occurred This is intended to crudely mimic some features of how human cognition works that we are most likely to recall cases we thought about recently and accept or reject them as input to current decisions on the basis of similarity The Land Manager s perception about the current state of the world consists of The Land Parcel The most recent Climate corresponding to the previous Year The most recent Economy corresponding to the previous Year Note that since Land Managers make their Land Use decisions at the beginning of the Year when the Climate and the Economy for that Year are still unknown their perceived current state of the world canno
137. il Issuing reward 130 to land manager 5 00043 GovernmentDetail Issuing reward 110 to land manager 2 00043 GovernmentDetail Issuing reward 90 to land manager 6 00043 GovernmentDetail Issuing reward 160 to land manager 3 00043 GovernmentDetail Issuing reward 120 to land manager 1 00043 GovernmentDetail Issuing reward 10 to land manager 8 00043 GovernmentDetail Issuing reward 10 to land manager 10 00043 GovernmentDetail Issuing reward 10 to land manager 12 00043 GovernmentDetail Issuing reward 10 to land manager 14 00043 GovernmentDetail Issuing reward 20 to land manager 22 00043 GovernmentDetail Issuing reward 10 to land manager 36 00043 GovernmentDetail Issuing reward 10 to land manager 38 4 00043 GovernmentDetail Issuing reward 10 p ae to land manager 39 Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 00043 GovernmentDetail 00043 GovernmentDetail 00043 GovernmentDetail 8 2 15 their receipt 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 00036 8 2 16 GovernmentRewards tRewards tRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards GovernmentRewards tRewards GovernmentRewar
138. ile Edit Project OWL Code Window Tools Help nee sa PEE eS E OB ap amp owtclasses Ml Properties Forms Individuals Metadata file Y swarm fearlus test 1 O egmodel 127 pprj OWL Files owl or rdf ey e CLASS BROWSER INSTANCE BROWSER INDIVIDUAL EDITOR For Project egmodel 127 Class Hierarchy gt amp owt Thing model AbstractBiddingStrategy modet AbstractEvent model AbstractGovernment modet AbstractGrid2DTopology modet AbstractLandManager v model AbstractSocialLandManager v model CBRSocialLandManager modelCBRSocialParcelLandma model CBRStrategyLandMe model AbstractSelectionStrategy model AbstractSubPopulation amp model AbstractTrigger model AssocArray 76 modetCBRCaseBase 24 modet Coordinate2D 7 modet Discrete2d modet FearlusStream modet GridLayerCell modetLandAllocator 1 modetLandParcel 100 amp model LTArray 2 model LTGroup 4 model LTGr oupState 450 modetLt Subgroup 8 model LTSymbol 25 modet LTTree 2 model MooreNeighbourhood 1 modetMT19937gen 1 For Class model CBRStrategyLa Asserted If Inferred NAME amp CBRStrategyLandManager_5S567 A CBRStrategyLandManager_5572 y i CBRStrategyLandManager_5595 CBRStrategyLandManager_5623 2 CBRStrategyLandManager_5642 y 2 CBRStrategyLandManager_5643 CBRStrategyLandManager_
139. ime of making a particular decision since the weights are constant the marginal rate of substitution is constant too Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 24 The weights for each of the two dimensions of utility are in general different for each Land Manager and they can also vary in time for each particular Land Manager depending on the occurrence of certain Events this process is detailed below Specifically each Land Manager has a minimum value for each of the two weights profitMinSalienceDist and approvalMinSalienceDist and a certain amount of units of mobile worry salienceMarginDist that they can assign to either dimension of utility to form the actual weights These three values are specified at the Subpopulation level using a probability distribution and they satisfy the following constraint for each Land Manager profitMinSalienceDist approvalMinSalienceDist salienceMarginDist CONSTANT profit weight approval weight The mobile worry is initially divided between the two dimensions in the ratio profitMinSalienceDist approvalMinSalienceDist so the first values of profit weight and approval weight satisfy the following constraint profit weight approval weight profitMinSalienceDist approvalMinSalienceDist From then onwards particular Events e g a neighbour going bankrupt making an overall loss in the Year or an increase in the number of disapproving neighbours wi
140. in the current working directory for fearlus verby before using fearlus verby in the FEARLUS executable directory If none of these files exist then there are no verbosity levels defined and if you want to obtain verbosity messages you have to specifically state which ones you want using the verbosity verbosity2 argument to the D command line option see section 3 2 1 for more information on this command line option The format of the verbosity file consists of one verbosity message from Table 1 followed by a verbosity level on each line of the file Any verbosity message not specified in the file will not have a verbosity level and if you want these messages you will have to ask for them specifically using the verbosity argument to the D command line option Verbosity messages are formatted with the Year they are generated first then the name of the verbosity message then the output generated by that message 8 2 1 Approval Reports all approval and disapprovals exchanged between Land Managers Examples 00006 Approval Manager 604 disapproves of manager 510 amount 1 due to LandUseGroupTrigger 00006 Approval Land manager 510 accepts disapproval 1 from manager 604 00006 Approval Manager 604 neither approves nor disapproves of manager 469 due to LandUseGroupTrigger O0006 Approval Manager 604 disapproves of manager 492 amount 1 due to LandUseGroupTrigger O0006 Approval Land manager 492 accepts disapproval 1 from manager 604 8 2 2
141. ironment that allows reports to be created with structured output focussed on the particular information required The downside of course is that you have to program them yourself if none of the existing reports provide the information required Ontology output is a prototype feature allowing a description of the model and its current state to be automatically created 8 1 Reports The report software environment was created to provide a flexible infrastructure for users to create their own reports generating an efficient set of outputs in the sense that the output generated is only that which is required The list of reports compiled in with modell 1 5 is given in subsections to this section To get report output you need to create a report configuration file the format of which is described in section 5 2 1 You then need to specify the configuration file on the command line using the R option and a name for report files with the r option The name of the file actually created may differ from the argument to the r command line option 1 Ifthe filename does not end with txt then add this string to the end of the filename If the file exists then insert a 5 digit number between the terminating txt and the rest of the name starting at 00001 and incrementing in steps of 1 until a non existing file name is found The a flag can be specified to cause the reports to be appended to an existing file rather than using step 2 abov
142. is created for each Subpopulation Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 II Salience ratio In p a salience ratio In p a salience Figure 33 showSalienceGraph 1 Utility of Land Managers _ ax Utility of Land Managers Figure 34 showUtilityGraph 1 The utility of a Land Manager is given by profit salience x profit approval salience x approval 7 1 2 Land Manager displays Note that probes a powerful facility in Swarm allow you to explore and change the settings of instance variables in objects Probes are accessed from the Land Manager raster shown in Figure 38 See Figure 39 Parcels by d L DIX TAAAANANNE A mae ie MEn a Figure 35 showStrategyRaster 1 a CBRSocialSubPopulation class b SubPopulation class Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 78 Experimentationkd ode Decision Compone ox E spermentationStrategy Eccentric pecialistStrategy Habith ode HabitS trategy Imitations trategu NoStrategy Imperfect atchh ode RandomLopyingS trategy Initial ode Randoms trategu Perfecthd atchM ode eld4 verge eightedT emporallopyingStrategu a b Figure 36 showStrategyColourKey 1 a For Subpopulation class CBRSocialSubPopulation b For SubPopulation here only those strategies used by any of the SubPopulation classes are displayed Conservationists Experimenters Experimenters strategy usage 5
143. ith an integrated species metapopulation model Stochastic Patch Occupancy Model or SPOM developed independently This manual does not cover the compilation or use of the SPOM or the integrated FEARLUS SPOM model The code is written in Objective C and is known to work with Swarm version 2 2 on a PC running Windows XP or Vista with Swarm 2 2 on a Sun running Solaris 8 with Paul Johnson s Swarm Linux RPMs on Fedora Core 6 with Swarm CVS extracted on 2006 06 12 configured without the GUI on a Sun running Solaris 8 and a x86 64 Redhat enterprise Linux box and using a CVS extracted version of Swarm on a SUSE Linux x84 64 box Compilation on Mac OS X Leopard has also been successfully achieved with a version of Swarm extracted from CVS on 2008 04 09 2 Installation Before installing FEARLUS make sure you have an appropriate version of Swarm installed on your platform Versions 2 2 2 2 3 and CVS downloads of Swarm have been used Your shell environment should have the SWARMHOME environment variable set to the location of your Swarm installation often usr if you have accepted default installation options for Swarm You make also find that to avoid some local settings in the Makefile you need to set the SWARMDATE environment variable it doesn t particularly matter what Installation of FEARLUS model 1 1 5 then involves unpacking the gzipped tar file and compiling the source code therein from a terminal window in Unix or the Swarm gt
144. ive it as argument to the o command line option When the model is first started three windows appear much as per Figure 18 You can use the GUI to make changes to the observer displays and to the parameters shown if you want to You can also enter values for the seed for the run and if required the seed to use after initialisation You cannot change the observer settings or parameters once the run has started If you do decide to change any parameter or observer settings make sure you hit return after each modification in the text box So it s not really an option Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 71 Parameter _ ox Observersw Ses z y Parameter I ObsenverS warn seed 321654789 showStrateguColourkey 1 T post nitS eed showlLlseR aster 1T environment ype Planiar Moore show uitabilityRaster 1 T i neighbourhood adius showProfitabilityR aster 1 T pu yieldT reeLUpos showBiophysAaster 1 T T incomeTreeLUpos showblanagerR aster 1 T climatelrouphl ame Climate showStrategyA aster 1 T 7 econompGrouph ame Economy showSubPopRaster 1 T landUseGrouph ame Landse showLseChangeRaster 1 T biophysGrouph ame Biophysical show anager ChangeR aster 1 T 5 4 4 yieldTreeFile yield tree showPriceR ankFiaster 1 T yieldT ableFile yield data show otalPriceR ankA aster 0 Income reeF ile INCOME ree showdveragePriceH ankAaster 1 T
145. l be incremented by 49 3294 to 19581 8 00093 Harvest Economy of scale for land use 3 Barley Organic on land parcel 262 at 26 2 used by land manager 71 with total area 10 4 for this land use 1 00093 Harvest Land manager 71 harvesting yield 11 4706 with income 112 844 from land parcel 262 at 26 2 with break even threshold 78 Account 19581 8 will be incremented by 34 8438 to 19616 6 00093 Harvest Economy of scale for land use 3 Barley Organic on land parcel 261 at 26 0 used by land manager 71 with total area 10 4 for this land use 1 00093 Harvest Land manager 71 harvesting yield 18 5459 with income 182 448 from land parcel 261 at 26 0 with break even threshold 78 Account 19616 6 will be incremented by 104 448 to 19721 1 00093 Harvest Economy of scale for land use 8 Beef Non organic on land parcel 322 at 32 2 used by land manager 71 with total area 18 2 for this land use 1 00093 Harvest Land manager 71 harvesting yield 9 84443 with income 98 3511 from land parcel 322 at 32 2 with break even threshold 78 Account 19721 1 will be incremented by 20 3511 to 19741 4 00093 Harvest Economy of scale for land use 8 Beef Non organic on land parcel 263 at 26 4 used by land manager 71 with total area 18 2 for this land use 1 00093 Harvest Land manager 71 harvesting yield 7 25756 with income 72 5069 from land parcel 263 at 26 4 with break even threshold 78 Account 19741 4 will be incremented by 5 4931
146. lass that offers this functionality Use 1 for a cell in the Zone and 0 for a cell outside Generated by PollutionGridFileReport Use this to pass in the initial allocations of Land Managers to Subpopulations SubPopulationGridFileReport FEARLUS Wealth Y ear x Output Generated by WealthGridFileReport FEARLUS Yield Y ear x Output Generated by YieldGridFileReport Table 11 A list of grid file layers used in FEARLUS The file format for the grid data file is given below To create ARC grd files for reading in to a GIS one file should be created for each layer containing the header everything from nrows down to NODATA value followed by the layer data i e no layer name nrows Number of rows of cells in the grid integer ncols Number of columns of cells in the grid integer These should correspond to envYSize and _ envXSize respectively xllcorner Georeference of the lower left corner of the grid on the X axis floating point yllcorner Georeference of the lower left corner of the grid on the Y axis floating point FEARLUS ignores these values cellsize Length of one side of the cell floating point This is used to compute the area of each cell NODATA value Value appearing in grid data to indicate blank cells integer This line is optional Layer I name The layer name may contain white space and is terminated at the end of the line Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 63 Layer l data Lay
147. lays Land Parcel display Debugging displays 8 OUTPUT Reports ApprovalNetworkReport ApprovalReport ClimateStateReport ClumpinessReport DisapprovalNetworkReport EconomyStateReport LandManagerGridFileReport LandUseGridFileReport LandUseReport LandUseStateReport LockInReport MeanSubPopParamParcelReport NetworkDistributionReport NetworkMatrixReport NetworkStatisticsReport ParcelLandManagerReport ParcelStateReport ParcelSubPopReport PollutionGridFileReport PollutionReport SpatialAutocorrelationReport SubPopDeathReport SubPopulationGridFileReport TimeSeriesReport WealthGridFileReport YieldGridFileReport Verbosity 59 59 60 6l 6l 63 64 64 66 69 70 12 72 71 79 1 81 84 84 85 85 86 86 86 86 86 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 88 88 88 88 88 88 89 89 89 89 90 91 8 2 1 Approval 91 8 2 2 CaseBase 91 8 2 3 CaseBaseDetail 91 8 2 4 Climate 92 8 2 5 Clumping 92 8 2 6 ClumpingDetail 92 8 2 7 ClumpingMuinutiae 92 8 2 8 Decision 92 8 2 9 DecisionAlgorithm 93 8 2 10 DecisionAlgorithmDetail 93 8 2 11 Economy 94 8 2 12 FarmScaleFixedCosts 94 8 2 13 Government 94 8 2 14 GovernmentDetail 94 8 2 15 GovernmentFines GovernmentRewards 95 8 2 16 GridFile 95 8 2 17 GridLayers 95 8 2 18 GUI 96 8 2 19 GUIKey 96 8 2 20 GUINeighbourhoodDetail 96 8 2 21 Harvest 97 8 2 22 Imitation 98 8 2 23 InitialLandUseAllocations 98 8 2 24 LandManagerChange 99 8 2 25 LandManagerCreation 99 8 2 26 L
148. line and so on for the rest of the file Symbols are separated by white space tab Name of Property 2 of Concept 1 tab tab Symboll 2 l Symboll 2 2 Symboll 2 3 tab Continue for all properties of concept 1 Name of Concept 2 tab Name of Property 1 of Concept 2 tab tab Symbol2 1 1 Symbol2 1 2 Symbol2 1 3 tab Name of Property 2 of Concept 2 tab tab Symboll 2 1 Symboll 2 2 Symboll1 2 3 GON es Continue for all properties of concept 2 Continue for all concepts The following is an example file Climate Temperature Cold Warm Hot Rainfall Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 61 Drought Average Flood Variability Predictable Unpredictable BilophysiCalCharacteristics LCAClass Classi Ciassill Classlil Classilv Classy Ciassvi LandUse Crop Arable Livestock Management Intensive Extensive 5 1 12 Yield and Income lookup table files The lookup table files contain the data that provide the consequences for each combination of property value lists in the groups concerned The first line of the file contains the names of the properties in the order that they appear in the corresponding symbol tree file separated by white space Thereafter each line consists of one symbol for each property again separated by white space followed by a floating point number that is the outcome Yield per unit area or Income per unit Yield according to which table the file is for for the given seque
149. ll cause a shift of a certain number of units of mobile worry salienceAdjustDist provided there are any to be shifted i e provided profit weight remains no lower than profitMinSalienceDist and approval weight no lower than approvalMinSalienceDist What Events cause what reaction in Land Managers is specified at the Subpopulation level using the file eventFile The structure of this file is explained in section 5 1 6 and the set of available events is summarised in Table 5 and detailed in section 10 an example of an event file is given below BEGIN EVENT BadHarvestEvent Response incProfitSalience MeanHarvestThreshold 9 0 END BEGIN EVENT NeighbourDisapprovalEvent Response incApprovalSalience END Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 25 Event class Configuration Description parameters BadHarvestE vent MeanHarvestThreshold The average Yield from Land Parcels is less than the specified threshold DisapprovalP roportionE vent DisapprovalThreshold The Land Manager has had more than the threshold proportion of their neighbours disapprove of them HighWealthE vent RichThreshold The Land Manager s Account exceeds the specified threshold LandP arcelSoldE vent The Land Manager has had to sell a Land Parcel Deprecated since in contrast with versions of FEARLUS not featuring ELMM Managers now sell all their Parcels A neighbour has disapproved of the Land Manager The Land Manager s Profit
150. llutionMin pollutionMax or normal pollutionMean pollutionVar Economies of scale cannot be set stochastically in modell 1 5 by default there are no economies of scale 4 2 Land Managers The Environment is inhabited by a population of Land Managers each of whom owns at least one Land Parcel but potentially more The set of Land Parcels owned by one particular Land Manager is called a Farm or Estate At any particular time each Land Parcel is owned by one and only one Land Manager who has allocated one and only one certain Land Use in the Land Parcel using a particular decision making algorithm Land Managers undertake various activities every time step which is intended to represent one Year a Land Managers decide a Land Use for each of the Land Parcels in their Estate this activity called Land Use decision making is explained in section 4 2 1 b At the end of the Year Land Managers calculate their annual income which affects their Wealth this activity called Income generation is explained in section 4 2 2 c Some classes of Land Managers may approve or disapprove of other Land Managers in their social neighbourhood this activity called Social approval and disapproval 1s explained in section 4 2 3 This social approval or disapproval can affect some Land Managers decision on what Land Use to select for certain Land Parcels d Learning Whether or not this happens depends on the decision making algorithm e De
151. llySimilar THEN Add aCase to consideredCases aCase and mostAppropriateCase are equally close to st Thus aCase has been considered but it does not replace the most appropriate case end of loop WHILE DO end of running through episodicMemory l u Randomise rejectedCases and add them at the beginning of episodicMemory lu Randomise consideredCases and add them at the beginning of episodicMemory u Add mostAppropriateCase at the beginning of episodicMemory u The process of remembering some previous experiences and considering them has made them more salient and they will be remembered more easily the next time the Land Manager tries to remember a previous experience Understanding the algorithm may be assisted with reference to an example Imagine the following list is the episodic memory for a particular land use before it is consulted using the above algorithm to find the most appropriate case H Cl C2 R1 R2 R3 B C3 C4 C5 C6 R4 C7 R5 R6 where H is the head of the list before the episodic memory is consulted and the best case from the last consultation B is to be the best 1 e most appropriate case for this consultation Cl n are to be the considered cases those which are not found to be less similar to the state of the world than the best case found at that time and R1 n are to be the rejected cases those which are found to be less similar to the state of the world than the best case found
152. lookup tables are described in parameter files Of the four numbers one is a pollution indicator and the other three parameterise economies of scale for the Land Use The pollution indicator is used by the Government to fine or reward Land Managers Economies of scale allow Land Managers using larger areas of the Land Use to have reduced costs The complete process of Income generation is explained in detail in section 4 2 2 As with the Biophysical Characteristics the Climate and the Economy Land Uses can be constructed in one of two ways specified by useLandUseFile a Specifying a file LandUseFile containing the property value lists and numbers to use see section 5 1 8 This is the only way to set economies of scale for the Land Uses b Using model parameters to control a stochastic process for setting them This is based on the nLandUse parameter If this is zero or equal to the maximum number of possible Land Uses the product of the number of symbols in each property of the Land Use group then all possible Land Use property value lists will be created Otherwise the symbols for each of the nLandUse Land Uses are chosen at random at the beginning of the run with an equal probability for each symbol in its property There is no guarantee that each Land Use will have a unique property value list in this case The number representing the pollution is drawn from a probability distribution pollutionDist than can be either uniform po
153. manager ID 95 O0000 LandManagerCreation Assigned land parcel 389 at 37 16 to land manager ID 95 O0000 LandManagerCreation Assigned land parcel 390 at 37 17 to land manager ID 95 8 2 26 LandManagerCreationDetail More information on the creation of each Land Manager showing how the Subpopulation they belong to was selected The following is an example for one Land Manager 00008 LandManagerCreationDetail Sub population of a new land manager selected as follows Sub pop Probability Cumulative 1 Oconee SCO cen 2 Oa EJ aS hore Le 53 8 2 27 LandManagerDestruction Brief information on the ID of each bankrupt Land Manager each Year Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 100 pay 00004 LandManagerDestruction 00004 LandManagerDestruction 00004 LandManagerDestruction 00004 LandManagerDestruction 00004 LandManagerDestruction 00004 LandManagerDestruction So 00004 LandManagerDestruction ds 00004 LandManagerDestruction ling land manager 55 ling land manager 85 ling land manager 89 ling land manager 12 ling land manager 94 ling land manager 126 ling land manager 133 ling land manager 139 8 2 28 LandParcelCreation Details during model initialisation of all Land Parcels and Land Cells created The following is an excerpt of the output generated SA E H H 00000 LandParcelCreation Created land cell
154. mer is a more general concept than the latter Thus in the ontology we could define CBRSocialParcelLandManager as a subconcept of CBRStrategyLandManager with the restriction that pCBR 1 0 A second problem is that of data structures Associative arrays are used in several places in FEARLUS but you will find that in the ontology they are not given a proper treatment Some other issues mean that not all data about instances are captured The other issue with this feature is the relationship between instance variables in OO and properties in the ontology Properties enjoy a more independent relationship with concepts in an ontology than instance variables do with classes The approach of this prototype ontology generation process is to create properties by joining the name of the instance variable with the class so that properties only belong to one concept Many of the above issues can be resolved by adopting coding conventions to highlight the ontologically significant aspects of the software Whilst this will have to wait for future versions of FEARLUS the existing approach still has its uses in being able to summarise the state of the system at any one time The diagram at the front of the manual is a network of approval and disapproval between Land Managers created using OntoViz from a model state ontology Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 108 Seles Ei prot g FT Elegmodel 127 Prot g 3 1 1 F
155. mining the seed The s option uses the current time to determine the seed value to use The S option allows the user to specify a 32 bit integer to use as seed It is recommended that these two options be used rather than X where possible but on a PC with version 2 1 1 of Swarm use X lt seed gt to get the same behaviour as S lt seed gt in later versions of Swarm Optionally you can specify a second seed for use after the initialisation schedule has completed see section 4 4 1 using the Z lt lt seed gt TIME gt option This allows comparison between models with identical initial conditions The seed specified using the X s or S options is used for the initialisation schedule and the seed specified using Z is used thereafter Swarm provides several classes of pseudo random number generator and if you want to try using a non default generator the default is MT19937gen the n option has been provided for you to specify any of the Swarm library classes conforming to the SimpleRandomGenerator protocol At the time of writing these classes are ACGgen C2MRG3gen C2TAUSI gen C2TAUS2gen C2TAUS3gen C3MWCgen LCGI gen LCG2gen LCG3gen MRGSgen MRG6gen MRG7gen Note that model1 1 5 has not been tested by the developers with Swarm 2 1 1 on a PC Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 MWCAgen MWCBgen PMMLCGI gen PMMLCG2gen PMMLCG3gen PMMLCG4 gen PMMLCGSgen PMMLCG6gen PMMLCG
156. mory The zones to display depend on the setting of the following parameters showObserverZone boolean Show the ObserverS warn zone in the zone graph showModelZone boolean Show the ModelS warm zone in the zone graph showScratchZone boolean Show scratchZone in the zone graph This is particularly useful for trapping memory leaks showManagerZone boolean Show a zone containing all the Land managers in the zone graph showCaseZone boolean Show a zone containing all the case bases in the zone graph showObserverZoneDetail boolean Show the numbers of members of each class in the ObserverS warm zone in a table to stdout showModelZoneDetail boolean Does for ModelSwarm zone what showObserverSwarmDetall does for ObserverS warm zone showScratchZoneDetail boolean aS does this for scratchZone showManagerZoneDetail boolean this for a zone containing all Land Managers showCaseZoneDetail boolean and this for a zone containing all case bases Qend 6 Batch mode As mentioned in section 3 to run FEARLUS in batch mode give the b flag to the command line Any debugging output specified with the D flag will be sent to stdout along with standard messages that can t be optionally made to disappear showing among other things when each Year is started You should give the D or the R and r flags to get some output from the model otherwise there is little point in running it If you are not giving the D flag th
157. mp Gotts 2005 ELMMO 2 consists of a minor upgrade to that model In ELMM rather than exchanging Land Parcels using a fixed price as in FEARLUS Land Managers bid for their Land Parcels in an auction Land Managers are divided into Subpopulations according to their decision making processes Each Subpopulation is defined by a set of parameters that determine how its member Land Managers will decide a Land Use for each Land Parcel see section 4 2 1 and how they will make decisions about acquiring Land Parcels This section pertains to the latter The rules for transfer of Land Parcels depend in part on which class of Land Manager is being used by a Subpopulation The PositiveLandManager class has a slight difference from all of the other classes Land Managers from the PosittveLandManager class who have non positive accrued Wealth are regarded as being bankrupt and must sell off all their Land Parcels whilst those from all the other classes must sell off their Land Parcels if they have negative Wealth Land Managers may also sell up with a certain probability even if they do not have negative Wealth determined using a distribution in the Subpopulation pSel1lUpDist pSel1UpMin pSellUpMax pSellUpMean pSellUpVar Since these are the only restrictions on the The PositiveLandManager class was created to explore whether any of the issues raised in Edmonds and Hales 2003 applied to FEARLUS Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed
158. mum Estimated Utility Figure 14 UML Activity Diagram depicting the decision algorithm of CBRAdviceLandManagers Another feature introduced for the CBRAdviceLandManager class is limitations on the Case Base size Two limits can be imposed on the Case Base One is the amount of time a Case will be stored in the Case Base and another is a limit on the number of Cases that can be stored in the Case Base These limits can be used together or independently These limitations are assigned to Land Managers using parameters in the Subpopulation which specify a uniform distribution for the time limit on Cases CBTimeLimitMin CBTimeLimitMax and for the size limit on the Case Base as a whole CBSizeLimitMin CBSizeLimitMax In either case Land Managers assigned a size or time limit of zero have no corresponding limit Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 29 Advice Strategy class Description NoAdviceStrategy For use if you want to ensure Land Managers of this class do not seek any Advice An empty list of Advisors is returned NoDisapproverAdviceS trategy The Advice list is a randomly ordered list of neighbours with whom there has been no Disapproval ProfitM akerAdviceS trategy The Advice list is a list of neighbours sorted in descending order of Profit SameSubP opulationAdviceStrategy The Advice list is a randomly ordered list of neighbours belonging to the same Subpopulation as the Manager seeking Advice
159. n Diagonal lines indicate more than one equally maximally profitable Land Use Not applicable in this case b showProfitabilityGraph 1 Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 83 Most Suitabl L ol x Suitability of each Land Use Suitability of each Land Use b Figure 48 a showSuitabilityRaster 1 The most suitable Land Use highest Yield is displayed on the raster Diagonal lines through Cells indicate there is more than one such Land Use not applicable here b showSuitabilityGraph 1 Yield of Land Parcels vs time EK Yield of Land Parcels vs time Market for Land Uses vs time MEg Market for Land Uses vs time oE Market for Land Uses vs time 1001110011 mee 0110110000 1010011000 m 1010110111 110011107 001101111 value multiplier 2 aa ee ee GE E E value multiplier Figure 50 showUseMarketGraph 1 a with many possible property value lists for the Economy b with only one possible property value list for the Economy akin to zero bits in the bitstring in earlier versions Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 84 7 2 2 Land Parcel display LCAClass DER Figure 51 showBiophysRaster parameter 1 This shows the spatial distribution of one symbol group of the Biophysical Characteristics at a time Use the left and right mouse buttons to cycle from one symbol group to the next The group display
160. n a reward for using an awardable Land Use on any Parcel they own and then extra if the awardable Land Use is used by a neighbouring Manager on a neighbouring Parcel However the Government has a target coverage for each Land Use which if exceeded means that any Land Manager not awarded for that Land Use in the previous Year cannot be awarded for the Land Use in this Year even if Managers awarded in the previous Year have changed activity There is a maximum total reward a Manager can receive per Year Parameter Parameter Parameter description The zone in which to issue rewards default everywhere LandUse label target List of awardable Land Uses Reward reward The reward per unit area to be given for any awardable Land Use on a Parcel owned by the Manager NbrReward nbr The reward per unit area to be given for any awardable Land Use on a neighbouring Parcel using the same Land Use as the Manager s 4 3 5 4 Government class CappedB udgetTargetC lusterActivityGovernment Description Land Managers are awarded for putting awardable Land Uses on Parcels where this will contribute to increasing the contiguous area devoted to a Land Use until a target coverage of the Land Use is reached Land Managers are given a reward for using an awardable Land Use on any Parcel they own and then extra if the awardable Land Use is used by a neighbouring Manager on a neighbouring Parcel However the Government has a target coverage for each
161. n from the Land Uses applied to the Environment is less than the pollution threshold Parameter Parameter description Reward reward The reward to be given to each Manager if the pollution threshold is met PollutionThreshold pt The threshold below which the reward will be given 4 3 6 2 Government class ParcelRewardingGovernment Description The reward is issued to all Land Managers for each Land Parcel they own if the total pollution from the Land Uses applied to the Environment is less than the pollution threshold Parameter Parameter description Reward reward The reward per Parcel to be given to each Manager if the pollution threshold is met PollutionThreshold pt The threshold below which the reward will be given 4 4 Schedule The model contains two schedules one to run during initialisation the other to run thereafter The main difference between the two apart from the creation of various objects is that Land Managers do not accrue Wealth or exchange Land Parcels during the initialisation schedule and they use a different strategy to decide the Land Use Before starting the initial schedule the following actions are undertaken to build the simulation e Create the Environment e Create the Land Allocator e Create the Land Cells and Land Parcels If a grid file is specified exists and contains the FEARLUS LandParcelID layer then allocate Cells to Parcels as per this layer Otherwise use the paramet
162. n level This is intended to represent the degree to which Land Managers weight information from neighbouring Land Parcels as opposed to their own when choosing a Land Use to imitate At a Neighbourhood Weighting of zero Land Managers only pay attention to their own Land Parcels and at a Neighbourhood Weighting of one Land Managers give equal weight to all information In general the Neighbourhood Weighting can be any non negative floating point number The one way in which Land Managers decision making processes may be changed during a simulation run is a legacy provision for the Neighbourhood Weighting to change changeNeighbourWeightDist It specifies the amount to add to the Neighbourhood Weighting of a Land Manager for each Land Parcel lost and to subtract from it for each Land Parcel gained This addition and subtraction takes place during the learning step in the schedule though if it leads to a negative Neighbourhood Weighting it will be set to zero The other way in which Land Managers choose a Land Use when their Aspiration Threshold is not met is by innovation probability 1 Imitative Probability Innovative strategies do not use neighbourhood information but involve some other principled algorithm for deciding a Land Use to apply from those available Table 4 compares the list of strategies available for use in model 1 1 5 More detail is given in section 9 Both imitative and innovative strategies may involve examining data
163. n occur try comparing 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 with zero for example In non linear applications such as FEARLUS where decisions depend critically on such things as comparisons of floating point numbers with zero even slight inaccuracies can have unexpected emergent effects Polhill Izquierdo and Gotts 2006 These inaccuracies can occur simply because the number in question has a recurring fraction in binary notation e g 0 4 0 0110 0110 or because a small number is added to a large number e g 134217728 0 00000001 134217728 FEARLUS model 1 1 5 does not currently deal effectively with such problems In general they should be avoidable by ensuring that any floating point parameters set to non integral values use decimals that are sums of negative powers of two e g 0 5 2 0 75 2 2 0 1875 2 2 and that the model is not left running for a huge number of Years which makes the sum of large and small numbers more likely to be an issue 5 1 1 Model file The model file is the main parameter file and it is this that should be supplied as argument to the p flag on the command line The environmentType parameter needs a little explanation The value given is a string consisting of a Topology and Neighbourhood Function separated by a minus sign The Topology may be one of Global Planar HorizontalCylindrical VerticalCylindrical or Toroidal The Neighbourhood Fu
164. nagers belong to the same Subpopulation 1 e have been created using the same parameter file they can be substantially different This is so because the Subpopulation file may specify probability distributions for parameter values rather than exact values Thus the fact that two Land Managers have been created using a common parameter file does not mean that they must necessarily have the same set of parameter values but only that such parameters have been drawn from the same probability distribution determined in the Subpopulation s parameter file There are various classes of Land Manager and Subpopulation that may be used each making decisions in slightly different ways The constraints on the class of Subpopulation that Land Managers of a given class can belong to are summarised in Table 3 Note that all Land Managers in a particular simulation must belong to the same class of Subpopulation Land Manager Class Subpopulation class LandManager SubP opulation CBRFarmScaleProfitlandManager CBRStrategyS ubP opulation CBRAdviceLandM anager CBRAdviceS ubP opulation CBRDelayedChangeLandManager CBRDelayedChangeS ubP opulation Table 3 Summary of classes of Subpopulation that various classes of Land Manager can belong to CBRNetApprovalLandM anager CBRStrategyS ubP opulation The following sections explain each of the three main activities that Land Managers conduct 4 2 1 Land Use decision making Land Managers belonging to t
165. nce of states A wildcard character can be used in place of the name of a symbol name to represent that all symbols in that property have the same outcome when combined with the other combination of symbols in that row A specific sequence of states may be matched more than once in the table file when wildcards are used in this case the last match is the one used This suggests a general to specific ordering of entries where entry X is more general than or equal to entry Y iff all wildcards in Y are also wildcards in X If an entry is not made then the default value is zero An alternative default value can be specified with a row consisting entirely of wildcards for all properties with the preferred value as the outcome The content of the file is read until the first empty line is encountered with all subsequent content ignored Propertyl 1 Propertyl 2 _ Property2 1 symbol symbol a symbol ae outcome float symbol symbol m symbol a outcome float The following is an example file corresponding to the example symbol tree file given earlier Temperature Rainfall Variability LCAClass Crop Management Brea iQ Cold i Predictable Arable Extensive 3 0 Drought A 2 0 Warm Average Predictable ClassI Arable Intensive 20 0 5 1 13 Grid file The grid file format loosely follows the ARC grd file format The chief difference between this file format and that of ARC is that more than one allo
166. nction may be one of TriangularVonNeumann VonNeumann HexagonalParallelogram Moore or Global Thus examples for this parameter value are such strings as Planar VonNeumann Toroidal HexagonalParallelogram or HorizontalCylindrical Moore The Global Topology and Global Neighbourhood are intended to be used exclusively together in the environment type Global Global Combining the Global Topology or Neighbourhood with any other Neighbourhood or Topology is an error but will not cause the model to fail The clumping parameter also needs some explanation The value to use for this parameter is a string in which the type of clumper and any parameters it needs are given The format of this string is clumper paraml valuel param2 value 2 paramN valueN Two clumpers are available in modell 1 5 SymbolSwappingClumper and StateSwappingClumper described earlier in this document Both have one optional parameter nCycles specifying how many times to do a swap by default 100 Examples of settings for the clumping parameter are StateSwappingClumper Cycles 500 or SymbolSwappingClumper If no clumping is required then the string None should be used The model file format is given below Q begin environmentType Environment type string as described in the main text neighbourhoodRadius Neighbourhood radius integer The neighbourhoodRadius
167. nctionality The social approval model in FEARLUS comprises a list of Triggers for each Land Manager which are rules that determine when and how much a Land Manager will Approve or Disapprove of another Land Manager Land Managers may only Approve or Disapprove of other Land Managers in their social neighbourhood The Trigger classes available in model 1 1 5 are explained in more detail in section 11 and listed in Table 7 Each Trigger rule has as parameters the amount of Approval or Disapproval the Land Manager will apply according to whether the appropriate conditions are met These amounts can be set to zero where for example a rule that possibly issues both Approval and Disapproval is required only to issue one of them indeed in many cases it would be nonsense to do otherwise The Economy of Scale is thus unfortunately somewhat misnamed from its name one would expect it to increase with area but since it is a multiplier of the Parcel s Break Even Threshold it functions to reduce fixed costs as a factor which is how one would expect economies of scale to operate in general If oy gt 1 then it is at least true that a larger oy means a larger economy of scale Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 32 Trigger class Configuration Description parameters AllLowP ollutionTrigger PollutionThreshold Approve of Land Managers whose Parcels all have a pollution less than the specified threshold LandUseGroupT ri
168. nd Manager so if you add up all the numbers in the Land Cells particularly if there are multi Cell Parcels the total Account in the grid file will exceed the total wealth of the Land Managers Options e GridFile The name of a grid file to save the report to default is the gridFile parameter e NoData The no data value to use in the grid file default 9999 8 1 27 YieldGridFileReport Saves the Yield of the Land Parcel to which each Land Cell belongs to the grid file Warning The Yield is a Land Parcel property and if there are multi Cell Parcels there will seem to be more Yield in the grid file than was actually generated Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 9 Options e GridFile The name of a grid file to save the report to default is the gridFile parameter e NoData The no data value to use in the grid file default 9999 8 2 Verbosity Verbosity output is explained in some detail earlier in this document The set of available verbosity messages is shown in Table 1 together with their verbosity levels The default verbosity levels are created in the FEARLUS executable directory during compilation when you make fearlus verby If you want to define your own verbosity file you can do so in one of two ways When FEARLUS first starts it checks for a verbosity file in the environment variable FEARLUS VERBOSITY FILE If that variable is not defined or the file it contains does not exist it looks
169. nd use incremented by 17 2279 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 358 at 8 37 with land use 3 7 31036 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 10 976 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 357 at 8 36 with land use 3 2 09965 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 3 15247 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Adding scores for yield of land parcels belonging to land manager 98 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 396 at 9 35 with land use 4 11 4882 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 17 2487 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 395 at 9 34 with land use 3 7 43436 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 11 1622 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 356 at 8 35 with land use 5 21 5991 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 32 4295 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Yield of land parcel 355 at 8 34 with land use 4 28 6623 0 years ago Score of land use incremented by 43 0344 00001 DecisionAlgorithmDetail Choice of land use made as follows Land Use Score Cumulative score range for choice 1 14 9305 0O lt choice lt 14 9305 2 1 76881 14 9305 lt choice lt 16 6993 3 6 70196 16 6993 lt choice lt 23 4012 4 30 1416 23 4012 lt choice lt 53 5428 5 44 4266 53 5428 lt choice lt 97 9694 lt choice 59 4225 6 17 6096 97 9694 lt choice lt 115 579 8 2 11 Economy
170. ng Land Manager 37 added the following case to their case base CASE Time 2 STATE Biophysical Characteristics land parcel 14 24 Climate LowVar Cold Economy Bear HighXch DECISION Land Use ID 11 OUTCOME Profit 1 91596 Approval 14 00002 Learning Event NeighbourDisapprovalEvent has happened to land manager 37 00002 Learning Land manager 37 increased approval salience by 0 447726 to 7 13571 8 2 4 Climate Shows the Climate state each Year Examples 00151 Climate New climate LowVar Cool From file suddenchange150 clim 00152 Climate New climate HighVar Warm 8 2 5 Clumping Shows the Biophysical Characteristics symbols states after clumping is completed 00000 Clumping New biophysical characteristics for land cells LandCell at 0 0 LCA IV Flat LandCell at 0 1 LCA II Steep LandCell at 0 2 LCA V Flat LandCell at 0 3 LCA I Steep LandCell at 0 4 LCA V Steep LandCell at 0 5 LCA V Steep LandCell at 0 6 LCA III Flat etc 8 2 6 ClumpingDetail Though available as a verbosity message none of the currently implemented clumping classes issue any of these messages 8 2 7 ClumpingMinutiae Though available as a verbosity message none of the currently implemented clumping classes issue any of these messages 8 2 8 Decision Shows for SubPopulation class members the decision each Land Manager made 00007 Decision Land manager 191 selected land use
171. nomy of Scale a b Figure 16 Sketches of the Economy of Scale curve a oy lt 1 b Oy gt l The Farm Scale Fixed Costs can be a constant or they can be loaded from a file farmScaleFixedCostsFile parameter If both the farmScaleFixedCosts and farmScaleFixedCostsFile parameters are specified then the values loaded from the file will over ride the farmScaleFixedCosts parameter If the file contains fewer Farm Scale Fixed Cost values than the number of Years in the simulation a warning will be issued and the value will remain constant at whatever the last value read from the file is once the end of the file is reached b Off farm Income This is determined by a normal distribution truncated to have a minimum of zero for each Land Manager with mean and variance each taken from uniform distributions at Subpopulation level in parameters of fFarmIncomeMeanMin offFarmIncomeMeanMax offFarmIncomeVarMin and offFarmIncomeVarMax c The third potential source of Income for the Land Managers is the Government Agent governmentClass governmentFile in the model Government Agents issue fines or rewards to Land Managers according to policy goals See section 4 3 4 2 3 Social approval and disapproval The social approval model in FEARLUS allows modelling Land Managers who are motivated by more than financial reward All classes of Land Manager except LandManager PositiveLandManager and DelayedChangeLandManager provide this fu
172. ommand line options that may be given to the modell 1 5 executable t 4 Ontology FEARLUS modell 1 5 is an agent based spatially explicit modelling system of land use change It is agent based in the sense that it contains objects intended to represent human decision makers in the real world farmers or more generally land managers and a government These decision makers are explicitly and individually represented in FEARLUS modell 1 5 It is spatially explicit in that it has land parcel objects that are topologically related to each other decision making processes that are bounded in their information sources to a spatial neighbourhood and outcomes that change the pattern of certain spatial features specifically land use FEARLUS modell 1 5 is a discrete event simulation model events in the simulation follow a cycle that is intended to represent a year and to which we will often refer as one time step Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 Henceforth entities in the model will be referred to using Title Case to distinguish them from real world entities e g Land Managers Parameters will be referred to using bold Courier New e g envXSize 4 1 Environment The Environment consists of a rectangular grid of Land Cells that are grouped into Land Parcels a Climate an Economy and a set of possible Land Uses We explain each of these in turn 4 1 1 Land Cells and Land Parcels The two main featur
173. on Price of Land Parcels vs time C ax Price of Land Parcels vs time Jera ral Maim mhm amp 1000 0 OK a 0 50 100 150 time Figure 43 Time series graph of most recent prices offered for Land Parcels Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 8 1 7 2 Environment displays 7 2 1 Land Use displays Land Parcels _ E 5 Land Parcels 0 b Figure 44 showUseRaster 1 from two different simulations a multi Cell Land Parcels loaded from a grid file b single Cell Land Parcels with Parcel and Manager boundaries switched off from the ObserverSwarm probe You can left click on a Land Cell to see its neighbourhood This is shown with a black border in b for a Cell with diagonal lines through it in the top left quadrant in a large contiguous area of the Land Use represented in pink This run used a hexagonal neighbourhood of radius 1 Number of Land Parcels for ea _ ax Number of Land Parcels for each Land Use Figure 45 showUseGraph 1 Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 82 Land Parcels BX Figure 46 showUseChangeRaster 1 Lighter shades of grey mean more changes of Land Use Yellow means none not applicable here Profitability of each Land Use E oX Frofitability of each Land Use Wi H habb b Figure 47 a showProfitabilityRaster 1 The most profitable Land Use is show
174. on terminating due to error tf e SrC 20060612 swarm srcec defobj Symbol m 187 Error c _raisekFvent Abort xxx event raised for warning WarningMessage xxx function VarProbe setData ToString file 8rce 20060612 swarm src objectbase VarProbe m line 1376 Error scanning for value in string n xxx execution continuing xxx event raised for error LoadError xxx function loadA Aborted file EF e S3SrC 20060612 swarm srcec simtools ObjectLoader m line 32 Could not initialize class loader for Parameter src 20060612 swarm src simtools ObjectLoader m 215 n xxx execution terminating due to error Lf 27 acl sf SLC ZUUCUGI2 Swarm sre de tob y Symbol mii37 Error c _raisekFvent Abort Appendix 2 Swarm Installation Notes Swarm is notoriously difficult to install unfortunately and the purpose of this section is to keep a record of its installation on various machines Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 116 Platform Installation notes Cygwin This works pretty much out of the box You should make sure that you install the X libraries when choosing which packages to select during the setup process Cygwin Vista On Vista it was necessary to include the rebase package when installing Cygwin which is not included by default in the setup process You should make sure this package is included When building FEARLUS using make various error messa
175. on the Land Manager s own Land Parcels 9 1 3 Simple Copying Choose a Land Use at random weighted by a score calculated as follows e Initialise scores for all Land Uses to 0 e Loop through each Land Parcel LPS owned by the Land Manager LM making the decision e Get the Land Use LU of LPS e Add 1 0 to the score for LU e Loop through all Land Parcels LPN in the social neighbourhood of LM e Get the Land Use LU of LPN e Add Neighbourhood Weighting to the score for LU 9 1 4 Simple Physical Copying The Simple Physical Copying Strategy chooses a Land Use in the same way as the Simple Copying Strategy but the physical rather than the social neighbourhood is used That is the set of Land Parcels examined are those belonging to the Land Manager and the physical neighbours of these Parcels 9 1 5 Yield Average Weighted Temporal Copying Choose a Land Use at random weighted by a score calculated as follows e Initialise scores for all Land Uses to 0 e Initialise counters for all Land Uses to 0 e Loop 1 through the last T Years of data according to the Land Manager s memory e Loop through each Land Parcel LPS owned by the Land Manager LM making the decision e Get the Income per unit area Y and Land Use LU of LPS for Year i e Add Y to the score for LU e Increment the counter for LU e Loop through all Land Parcels LPN in the social neighbourhood of LM e Get the Income per unit area Y and Land Use LU of LPN for Year 1 e Add
176. onMin profitAspirationMax profitAspirationMean profitAspirationVar Mean approval minimum salience floating point 55 This parameter should only appear if approvalMinS alienceDist is normal or truncated normal Approval minimum salience variance floating point This parameter should only appear if approvalM inS alienceDist normal or truncated normal Distribution from which to set the salience margin member Land Managers This parameter should either be normal truncated normal uniform Minimum salience margin floating point This parameter should only appear if salienceMarginDist uniform or truncated normal Maximum salience margin floating point This parameter should only appear if sallienceMarginDist uniform or truncated normal Mean salience margin floating point This parameter should only appear if sallienceMarginDist normal or truncated normal Salience margin variance floating point This parameter should only appear if salienceMarginDist normal or truncated normal Distribution from which to set the salience adjustment member Land Managers This parameter should either be normal truncated normal uniform Minimum salience adjustment floating point This parameter should only appear if salienceAdjustDist uniform or truncated normal Maxim
177. owNWeightDist showThresholdDist showImitProbDist nHistogramBins zoomSize 68 boolean Show a time series graph of the number of bankruptcies from each Subpopulation boolean Show a time series graph of the mean Age in Y ears of members of each Subpopulation If there is only one Subpopulation show the mean minimum and maximum over all Land Managers boolean Show a time series graph for each CBRSocialSubP opulation or CBRStrategyS ubP opulation of the utility of its members boolean Show a time series graph for each CBRSocialSubP opulation or CBRStrategySubPopulation of the mean log profit salience approval salience of its members Hence negative values show more approval salience positive values more profit salience boolean Show a time series graph for each CBRSocialSubP opulation or CBRStrategyS ubP opulation of the number of times its members have been approved and disapproved boolean Show a time series graph for each CBRSocialSubP opulation or CBRStrategyS ubP opulation of the number of times its members have approved or disapproved of another Land Manager boolean Show a time series graph of the mean minimum and maximum price at which Land Parcels have been sold boolean Show a time series graph of the mean bids offered by in migrant members of each Subpopulation for each Land Parcel boolean Show a time series graph of the mean bids offered by non in migrant members of each Subpopulation for each L
178. ows e Initialise scores for all Land Uses to 0 e Loop i through the last T Years of data according to the Land Manager s memory e Loop through each Land Parcel LPS owned by the Land Manager LM making the decision e Get the Income Y and Land Use LU of LPS for Year 1 e Add Y to the score for LU e Loop through all Land Parcels LPN in the social neighbourhood of LM e Get the Income Y and Land Use LU of LPN for Year 1 e Add Y x Neighbourhood Weighting to the score for LU This Strategy is the Yield Weighted Copying Strategy but looks back over a longer period of time than just the last Year 9 2 Strategies following the NonImitativeStrategy Protocol 9 2 1 Eccentric Specialist The algorithm for choosing the Land Use is as follows e The first time this Strategy is asked for a Land Use choose one at random from all Land Uses remember that chosen and return it as the Land Use selected e Thereafter return the Land Use chosen the first time Land Managers using this Strategy have a favourite Land Use chosen at random when they first decide a Land Use which they always use thereafter 9 2 2 Fickle The algorithm for choosing the Land Use 1s as follows e The first time this Strategy is asked for a Land Use this Year choose one at random remember it and return it as the Land Use selected e For all other Parcels on which the Land Manager has to decide a Land Use using this Strategy this Year return the remembered Land Use
179. pending on their Wealth at the end of the Year Land Managers may decide to buy Land Parcels this activity called Land Parcel transfer is explained in section 4 2 4 Land Managers with negative Wealth are bankrupt and sell all their Land Parcels Land Managers are grouped into Subpopulations which are by definition groups of Land Managers that have been created using the same parameter file the names of the parameter files Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 13 for all Subpopulations are given in the file named in the subPopFile parameter The structure of such a parameter file is the same for every Subpopulation in a run and therefore for every Land Manager in a run since every Subpopulation in any particular simulation run must be an instance of one single Subpopulation class ClassForSubPopulations in the subPopFile Nevertheless Land Managers in a simulation run can be very different from each other for two reasons 1 They can belong to different Subpopulations The nature of the parameters specified at the Subpopulation level is fundamental so Land Managers belonging to different Subpopulations can be substantially different In particular one parameter specified in the Subpopulation file is the Land Manager class landManagerClass i e Land Managers in different Subpopulations can be instances of different classes so they can potentially make decisions in different ways 2 Even when two Land Ma
180. pisodic memory after consultation is E C R Where C is a random ordering of the list H C1 C2 R a random ordering of the list R1 R2 R3 and the ellipsis represents an unchanged order to the remaining list If H has state equal to the current state of the world then the order of the case base is unchanged There is only one thing left to explain in the process detailed above When is a case more less or equally similar to a certain state of the world st in comparison with another case and when are two cases incomparable relative to a certain state of the world st Whether these contingencies occur or not depends on a comparison between the states of the world of the two cases relative to st Remember that each state of the world is made up of 3 descriptors Land Parcel Climate and Economy Let A B and C be three states of the world Ais MORE similar to C than B is if and only if at least one descriptor in A is more similar to the corresponding descriptor in C than B s corresponding descriptor is and the rest of the descriptors are equally similar to C as B s Ais LESS similar to C than B is if and only if B is MORE similar to C than A is A has the SAME similarity to C as B if and only if A is exactly equal to B Ais INCOMPARABLE with B relative to C in the rest of the cases This occurs when A is MORE similar to C than B in some descriptors and LESS so in others Considering the Climate and Econom
181. proval received by all Land Managers Disapproval the distribution of Disapproval received by all Land Managers Approving the distribution of Approval given by all Land Managers Disapproving the distribution of Disapproval given by all Land Managers Options e TimeSeries The time series to use see above for those available Default is AII e ACFLength The length of the autocorrelation function back from the reporting time step to show default 20 e CollectiveSource For time series derived from a collection e g all Land Parcels or Land Managers specify the statistic to use to create the time series This can be one of Minimum Maximum Mean the default Variance Median or Total e RelativeChange flag default False Compute the statistics on the relative change time series x v y 1 1 aS Opposed to the original time series y e ShowTimeSeries flag default False Write out the whole time series e ShowThisYear flag default False Write out this Year s data for the time series e SingleRowSeries flag default True Separate the ACF and time series data if written by column If this flag is set to False each element in the time series if written and ACF will be on its own row 8 1 26 WealthGridFileReport Saves the Account of the Land Manager owning each Land Cell to the grid file Warning The Account belongs to the La
182. pulation CBRSocialSubPopulation bid 5 List of bids for land parcel 339 at 32 306 New land manager from subpopulation CBRSocialSubPopulation bid 5 Land manager 371 bid 16 353 List of bids for land parcel 340 at 32 38 New land manager from subpopulation CBRSocialSubPopulation bid 5 List of bids for land parcel 338 at 32 34 ParcelTransfersDetail ParcelTransfersDetail manager 453 manager 328 and manager manager 366 manager 371 Land Land New Ll Land Land Pollution bid 1 90922 bid 2 10052 from subpopulation CBRSocialSubPopulation bid 5 bid 6 88196 bid 16 353 Statement of the total Pollution each Year 00004 Pollution 8 2 42 PollutionDetail Total pollution for this year is 1340 5 Details on the Pollution from each Parcel each Year 00003 PollutionDetail 00003 PollutionDetail 00003 PollutionDetail etc 8 2 43 StrategyDetail Pollution from land parcel 12 at 0 22 with land manager 7 is 2 63081 Pollution from land parcel 11 at 0 20 with land manager 5 is 2 63942 Pollution from land parcel 10 at 0 18 with land manager 5 is 4 95538 Shows for those Strategies using a scoring mechanism for Land Uses details of how the scores are calculated as the Strategy progresses 00001 Average 00001 Average StrategyDe was 18 3581 StrategyDe was 26 2737 00001 Average 00001 Average Stra 00001 Average 00001 Average 00001 Average
183. r reports for this Year are similarly delimited by BEGIN and END sections END lt tab gt Report for end of year lt tab gt Year of report 8 1 1 ApprovalNetworkReport Shows for each Land Manager a list of Land Managers that approved of them 8 1 2 ApprovalReport Shows for each Land Manager the total approval or disapproval they awarded other Land Managers and the total approval or disapproval received from other Land Managers 8 1 3 ClimateStateReport Shows the Climate property value list 8 1 4 ClumpinessReport For each Land Cell a randomly selected Moore neighbour is compared with a randomly chosen Cell a specified number of times This information is used to compute the mean distance at which a neighbour is more similar in its Biophysical Characteristics to a Land Cell than a randomly chosen Cell This provides an indication of the degree to which Cells Biophysical Characteristics are similar Options e Samples Number of randomly chosen Land Cells to select default 10 8 1 5 DisapprovalNetworkReport Shows for each Land Manager a list of Land Managers that disapproved of them Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 87 8 1 6 EconomyStateReport Shows the Economy property value list 8 1 7 GovernmentE xpenditureR eport Shows the amount the Government spent rewarding Land Managers in the reporting Year 8 1 8 LandManagerGridFileReport Saves the Land Manager owning each Land Cell to
184. rameter is ignored by FEARLUS but is used when saving grid files gridFile Name of a grid file to load or save spatial data to from If useG ridF ile 1 and the file does not exist it will be created useGridFile Whether or not to use the gridFile specified Boolean governmentClass Name of the class to use for the Government Use NoGovernment if you don t want a Government governmentFile File from which to load Government configuration parameters Qend 5 1 2 Climate and Economy change probability files The Climate and Economy change probability files both have the same format They are used to specify the probability of changing the Symbol in each Property The format is given below NumberOfElements Number of properties integer The number entered here is the number of properties of the relevant Climate or Economy group d Probability this property will change to a different symbol each Year floating point The above line should appear the number of times indicated by the NumberOfElements entry Probabilities should be zero for any property with only one symbol In earlier versions of FEARLUS it was possible to not have the Climate or Economy affect Yield or Income by having zero length bitstrings A similar effect can be achieved here in two ways One is to use a wildcard for all Climate or Economy properties in the appropriate lookup table file The other is to use a Climate or Economy with one property containing a single sym
185. ramework ontology from a non default root class e g FearlusThing which unfortunately doesn t have the Environment as a subclass give an argument to the C command line option Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 107 If a model file is given then the behaviour depends on whether the program is running batch mode or GUI mode In batch mode a model state ontology containing a model ontology will be created after the schedule has stopped in the specified Year In GUI mode if the O command line option is given an extra button 1s added to the ProcCtrl window labelled Ontology If you push this button before the simulation has started i e before pushing Start or Next for the first time a framework ontology is created using the SwarmObject class as the root class Thereafter a model ontology is created along with a separate model state ontology that imports the model ontology It is suggested if this feature 1s used that you supply an appropriate URI to the model ontology e g file full path to the ontology owl where the file the path points to is the name of the file given as argument to the O command line option and the path is the path you would use in Prot g to open the ontology This allows you to create several model state ontologies during the course of one simulation The model state ontologies will have a slightly different name than the O command line option argument to reflect
186. raph 11 showLlseGraph 1 T showSuitabilityGraph 1 T showProfitabilityGraph 1 T jl zhoww ealthGraph EE showDeathGraph 1 T showdgeGraph 1 T showUtilityGraph 0 shows allenceGraph showApprovedGraph O showApprovingGraph 0 showPriceGraph 1 T show ewBidGraph f T l showBidGraph fr shows allenceDist o show anagersDist fi T showN weightDist 1 T showT hresholdDist 1 T zhowlmitProbDist 1T nHistogramB ins a zoom ize 1 fb displayFrequency 12 Land Parcels MEE E E E HE E Cy LJ toggleM anagerB oundanes BESE toggleParcelB oundaries HHH 7 1 7 1 1 Various displays are available to compare Subpopulations with some specific to the class of Subpopulation The following displays are available for all Subpopulation classes Subsequent a b Figure 19 The boundary display toggle buttons on the ObserverSwarm probe map a and the effect of pressing the toggleParcelBoundaries button on the display provided when showManagerRaster is 1 b before clicking Next on ProcCtrl to see the effect c after Social system displays Subpopulation displays subsections show those displays specific to certain classes of Subpopulation Population of Land Managers Maol Population of Land Managers vs time E Ss t n o EL Figure 20 showPopulationGraph 1 Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 73 A
187. rcels with at Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 38 least n neighbours having the same Land Use There is a limit on the number of awards that can be made Rewards are selected randomly oe The zone in which to issue rewards default everywhere LandUse label reward For each awardable Land Use the associated reward parameter specifies the reward per unit area to give if the reward is chosen to be given Negative rewards are treated as fines implemented as specified MaxNRewards max Specify the number of rewards to be given MinNNeighbours min The minimum number of neighbouring Parcels required having the same Land Use before the reward will be given 4 3 2 4 Government class SortNbrSubsetActivityGovernment Description Issues rewards as specified for each Land Use on those Parcels with at least n neighbours having the same Land Use There is a limit on the number of awards that can be made Rewards are made in descending order of number of neighbours having the same Land Use Parameter description The zone in which to issue rewards default everywhere LandUse label reward For each awardable Land Use the associated reward parameter specifies the reward per unit area to give if the reward is chosen to be given Negative rewards are treated as fines implemented as specified MaxNRewards max Specify the number of rewards to be given MinNNeighbours min The minimum number of neighbouring Par
188. ree files define the organisation of symbols that may collectively describe the state of various aspects of the system In the case of the Yield symbol tree file the aspects of the system to describe are the Biophysical Characteristics of the Land Cells the Climate and the Land Uses In the case of the Income symbol tree file the aspects of the system to describe are the Land Uses and the Economy Each of these aspects is called a concept and each concept may have an arbitrary number of properties into which the symbols describing the state of the concept are organised Each property may be thought of as a dimension of the concept Within each property an arbitrary number of symbols may be defined which exhaustively specify the values that the concept may have in that dimension Property names for Climate Economy Biophysical Characteristics and Land Uses should not overlap The format of the file is sensitive to white space characters The name of each concept is passed to FEARLUS in the model file as one of the parameters landUseGroupName biophysGroupName climateGroupName or economyGroupName Name of Concept 1 Names of concepts properties and symbols should not contain white space and should start with an alphabetic character upper or lower case tab Name of Property l of Concept 1 This is expected to start on the next line after the name of the concept tab tab Symboll 1 1 Symboll 1 2 Symboll1 1 3 Again starts on the next
189. resenting the Biophysical Characteristics File name of the Yield symbol tree File name of the Yield lookup table File name of the Income symbol tree File name of the Income lookup table Whether or not to use Euclidean distance to judge the similarity of Parcels rather than Biophysical Characteristics even if the Parcels being compared all have one Cell each or each use the same Biophysical Characteristics on all their Cells Clumping algorithm to use and any parameter settings as described in the main text Number of horizontal cells to use in the Environment grid Integer Number of vertical cells to use in the Environment grid Integer Number of Land Uses integer If zero or equal to the number of possible Land Use property value lists then all combinations of Land Use property symbols will be available as Land Use options Otherwise the specified number of random Land Use property value lists will be generated File to use to load or save Land Uses from Flag indicating whether or not to use the landUseFile The useLandUseFile and landUseFile parameters are used to either load or save the Land Uses to If useLandUseFile is 0 the Land Uses are not loaded or saved regardless of the value of landUseFile Otherwise if landUseFile exists the Land Uses are loaded from the file and if not the Land Uses are saved File to use to load or save Economy property value lists from lf the file contains fewer Years wort
190. reshold 4 97215 memos ze 1 climate emon economyh enor InitialStrategy atU Above hresholdS trategy below hresholdimitativeStrategy below Threshold onl mitative Strategy c Figure 39 Using the Swarm probes a The Land Cell probe window obtained by right clicking on a Cell in the Land Manager raster b The Land Parcel probe window obtained by right clicking the light grey LandParcel value of the lp instance variable of the LandCell instance in a c Land Manager probe window obtained by right clicking the light grey LandManager value of the landManager instance variable of the LandParcel instance in b 7 1 3 Land Market displays Figure 40 shows the displays given when the a showPriceRankRaster b showAveragePriceRankRaster and c showTotalPriceRankRaster parameters are set to 1 in the ObserverSwarm Figure 41 shows that for the showBidGraph Figure 42 for showNewBidGraph and Figure 43 for showPriceGraph _ eax Average Pri L OIX Total Price KEJK 5 Price Rank Figure 40 ELMM rasters a showPriceRankRaster 1 b showAveragePriceRankRaster 1 c showTotalPriceRankRaster 1 Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 80 Mean bids vs time Mean bids vs time Figure 41 Time series graph of bids made by various Subpopulations over time Figure 42 Time series graph of bids made by in migrant Land Managers from each Subpopulati
191. s in a cluster with a target coverage These classes of Government combine a target coverage for certain Land Uses with a preference for these Land Uses to be in a contiguous cluster To encourage the target coverage of the Land Uses to be maintained once achieved rewards to Managers made before the target was achieved are maintained 4 3 5 1 Government class TargetClusterActivityGovernment Description Land Managers are awarded for putting awardable Land Uses on Parcels where this will contribute to increasing the contiguous area devoted to a Land Use until a target coverage of the Land Use is reached Land Managers are given a reward for using an awardable Land Use on any parcel they own and then extra if the awardable Land Use is used by a neighbouring Manager on a neighbouring Parcel However the Government has a target coverage for each Land Use which if exceeded means that any Land Manager not awarded for that Land Use in the previous year cannot be awarded for the Land Use in this Year even if Managers awarded in the previous Year have changed activity Parameter Parameter description The zone in which to issue rewards default everywhere LandUse label target List of awardable Land Uses Parcel owned by the Manager neighbouring Parcel using the same Land Use as the Manager s 4 3 5 2 Government class BudgetTargetClusterActivityGovernment Description Land Managers are rewarded for putting awardable Land Uses on
192. s parameter should either be normal truncated normal or uniform approvalAspirationMin Minimum approval aspiration floating point This parameter should only appear if approvalAspirationDist is uniform or truncated normal approvalAspirationMax Maximum approval aspiration floating point This parameter should only appear if approvalAspirationDist is uniform or truncated normal approvalAspirationMean Mean approval aspiration floating point This parameter should only appear if approvalAspirationDist is normal or truncated normal approvalAspirationVar Approval aspiration variance floating point This parameter should only appear if approvalAspirationDist is normal or truncated normal 5 1 4 4 CBRStrategySubPopulation class Defines Subpopulation parameters for CBRStrategyLandManager CBRNetApprovalLandManager CBRFarmScaleProfitLandManager CBRAdviceLandManager and CBRDelayedChangeLandManager classes in addition to those specified in section 5 1 4 3 Distribution from which to set the probability of using Case Based Reasoning when the Aspiration of member Land Managers is not met This parameter should either be normal truncated normal or uniform Minimum probability of using Case Based Reasoning when the Aspiration is not met floating point This parameter should only appear if oCBRDist is uniform or truncated norm
193. s well as hexagonal or triangular These last two simulate a tessellation of cells of the appropriate shape using grids of squares as illustrated in Figure 3 In addition a global Neighbourhood is provided in which all cells are neighbours of all other cells Note that in wrapped around grids with a triangular Neighbourhood the number of cells in the wrapped around dimension of the grid must be even or topological inconsistencies will occur The software does not check for these inconsistencies so beware Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 Ea G Ara Figure 3 Simulation of hexagonal and triangular neighbourhoods using grids of squares In each case the neighbourhood of the third cell up and to the right from the bottom left corner of the grid is shown The neighbourhood of a cell can also be adjusted using the neighbourhood radius neighbourhoodRadius For all Neighbourhood Functions except global and von Neumann the neighbourhood radius specifies the number of steps to be taken using the Neighbourhood Function to include all cells in the neighbourhood i e a radius of 2 implies two steps of the Neighbourhood Function radius 3 three steps and so on The neighbourhood radius is irrelevant in the case of the global Neighbourhood and in the von Neumann it specifies the number of steps in a North South East or West direction Examples are given in Figure 4 Figure 4 The effect of neighbourhood ra
194. s year since account 20 22 from 22 to land mgr land manager 56 to 45 at price 15 8997 Winning bidder is new land manager 299 from subpopulation Transferred 299 at price 5 Adding land Transferred 55 at price 10 1058 Adding land Transferred 45 at price 15 8997 Adding land Winning bidder is new land manager 300 from subpopulation land parcel 232 at 22 22 from 22 CO 22 parcel 232 at 22 land parcel 231 at land mgr 20 from 20 to 20 parcel 231 at 22 land parcel 211 at land mgr 20 from 20 to parcel 211 at 20 land mgr ParcelTransfers Detail Information on the bids made for each Land Parcel land manager 56 to 299 at price 5 land manager 56 to 55 at price 10 1058 land manager 56 to 45 at price 15 8997 Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 00006 00006 00006 00006 00006 00006 8 2 41 ParcelTransfersDetail Land manager 334 bid 1 98978 Land manager 331 bid 2 84026 105 List of bids for land parcel 259 at 24 360 New land manager from subpopulation CBRSocialSubPopulation bid 5 List of bids for land parcel 239 at 22 306 ParcelT New Land ParcelT ParcelT Land manager 366 bid 6 88196 ransfersDetail land manager from subpopulation CBRSocialSubPopulation bid 5 manager 330 bid 5 84422 ransfersDetail ranstersDetail List of bids for land parcel 240 at 22 38 New land manager from subpo
195. sity file they must be explicitly and individually specified on the command line e g D GUI GUIKey WN JAIOA pee pd CA ee ee A The verbosity levels are set by default in a file called fearlus verby in the source directory of the modell 1 5 executable You can override these settings by putting a file called fearlus verby with your required settings in the current working directory when you start the program or you can create a file with your own name provided you have set an environment variable in your shell called FEARLUS VERBOSITY FILE that contains the name of the file you created If none of these files exist then numeric arguments to the D flag specifying a verbosity level will be ignored and you should specify the debugging messages you want from Table 1 using a separated list e g D Approval Harvest Pollution 3 2 2 OWL ontology output A prototype feature first introduced in model 1 0 is the ability to output an OWL ontology describing the model There are two main kinds of ontology that can be obtained a framework ontology describing all the classes in FEARLUS a model ontology describing all the classes used in a particular model and a model state ontology describing all the classes used in a particular model and all the instances of those classes To get a framework ontology you should run modell 1 5 specifying only the O and C options with no parameter file
196. specified threshold then the Event has occurred LandParcelSoldEvent This is a legacy from earlier versions of FEARLUS Now that ELMM controls the Land Parcel transfer mechanism Land Managers have to sell all their Land Parcels at once rather than one at a time Such Land Managers are bankrupt so any adjustment of salience that occurs will be irrelevant 10 5 10 6 10 7 If the Land Manager has sold any Land Parcels this Year then the Event has occurred NeighbourDisapprovalEvent If the total disapproval this Land Manager has received this Year is more than zero then the Event has occurred NetLossEvent If the Profit of the Land Manager is less than zero then the Event has occurred NoRewardEvent If the Land Manager has not received any financial reward from the Government no matter what its value including zero and event negative numbers then the event has occurred Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 112 10 8 ThresholdDisapprovalEvent e If the total disapproval this Land Manager has received this Year is more than the specified threshold then the Event has occurred 11 Triggers 11 1 AllLowPollutionTrigger This trigger will only trigger approval of a Land Manager e Set the approval of the Land Manager to the specified amount in the Trigger file e Loop through the Land Parcels owned by the Land Manager to potentially be approved of e If any Land Parcel has pollution grea
197. sts of their Biophysical Characteristics similarly to the Climate and Economy If alwaysUseProximity is 0 and neither of the above conditions on u v and w s Biophysical Characteristics are met then Euclidean distance is used for similarity 4 2 1 3 1 5 Calculation of estimates from the most appropriate cases The only circumstance under which the process described in the previous section will not retrieve a case is when the compartment for Land Use lu in the Land Manager s Episodic Memory is empty If that is the case then the Land Manager will estimate the Profit and the Social Approval for that Land Use in the considered Land Parcel given the current perceived state of the world taking the respective Aspiration Thresholds as estimates for Profit and Social Approval If on the other hand the retrieval process does produce a case the estimates are exactly those that appear in the case 4 2 1 3 2 Selection of a specific Land Use in the two dimensional plane of utilities This section explains how Land Managers select one Land Use once they have an estimation of Profit and Social Approval for each of them see Figure 8 In the general case there will not be a Land Use that outperforms the rest in both dimensions of utility so Land Managers will have to compromise This is done using a compensatory approach i e assuming that high performance for one dimension of utility may be traded off against poorer performance for another to maximise an
198. t a comprehensive depiction 4 3 The Government Agent The Government Agent offers the possibility of implementing policies designed to influence Land Managers Land Use decisions There is no direct communication between Land Managers and the Government during the decision making process to find out what actions they can take to increase their chance of obtaining an award or reduce their chance of being fined Despite this the Government can still influence behaviour in those Land Manager classes where Financial Aspirations are based on Profit rather than returns from individual Land Parcels The Government Agent classes governmentClass governmentFile implemented in modell 1 5 are listed in what follows and summarised in Table 10 Government class Description given as a share of a fixed Budget given as a share of a fixed Budget As per TargetActivityGovernment but rewards are given as a share of a fixed Budget are given as a share of a fixed Budget Cap on the reward a Manager can receive Cap on the reward a Manager can receive As per BudgetTargetActivityGovernment but with a Cap on the reward a Manager can receive As per BudgetTargetClusterActivityGovernment but with a Cap on the reward a Manager can receive As per ClusterActivityGovernment but with a Cap on the reward a Manager can receive As per RewardActivityGovernment but with a Cap on the reward a Manager can receive reward a Manager can receive As per Target
199. t and SortNbrSubsetActivityGovernment classes there is the further potential in that rewards are not given unless a Parcel is part of a contiguous set of at least a specified number of Parcels using the same Land Use 4 3 2 1 Government class SubsetActivityGovernment Description Issues rewards as specified for each Land Use but only a random set of n rewards will be issued Parameter description The zone in which to issue rewards default everywhere LandUse label reward For each awardable Land Use the associated reward parameter specifies the reward per unit area to give if the reward is chosen to be given Negative rewards are treated as fines implemented as specified MaxNRewards max Specify the number of rewards to be given 4 3 2 2 Government class SortSubsetActivityGovernment Description Issues rewards as specified for each Land Use but a subset of rewards will be made in descending order of number of awards per Land Manager Parameter description The zone in which to issue rewards default everywhere LandUse label reward For each awardable Land Use the associated reward parameter specifies the reward per unit area to give if the reward is chosen to be given Negative rewards are treated as fines implemented as specified MaxNRewards max Specify the number of rewards to be given 4 3 2 3 Government class NbrSubsetActivityGovernment Issues rewards as specified for each Land Use on those Pa
200. t be formed by the set of conditions that will interact with their decision to produce the outcome at the end of the Year In the representation of cases however the state of the world does comprise the factors that affected the outcome which is stored in the same case Thus when retrieving a case considering its similarity with the current perceived state of the world and using that case to guesstimate the outcome there is the implicit assumption that Land Managers believe that the state of the world during the coming Year will be similar to the current state of the world The specific retrieval process for a given Land Use u given a perceived current state of the world st is detailed in the following text box in grey This text box contains pseudo code aligned to the left and some comments in blue ink aligned to the right that explain the processes that the piece of pseudo code next to them is meant to represent Retrieve the list of cases where lu was applied episodicMemory u Land Manager thinks of previous times where he applied lu firstCase Remove first case from episodicMemory lu The most salient case in memory is remembered this is one of last year s experiences if lu was applied then mostA ppropriateCase firstCase So far this most salient case is the most appropriate but it is about to be compared with other previous experiences WHILE The end of episodicMemory lu is not reached DO Land Manager remembers other pre
201. t classes implementing a reward for Land Uses 4 3 2 Government classes issuing limited rewards for Land Uses 4 3 3 Reward for Land Uses with a target coverage 4 3 4 Reward Land Uses in a contiguous cluster 4 3 5 Reward Land Uses in a cluster with a target coverage 4 3 6 Government classes aimed at controlling pollution 4 4 Schedule 4 4 1 Initial schedule 4 4 2 Main schedule 5 PARAMETER FILES 5 1 Model parameters 5 1 1 Model file 5 1 2 Climate and Economy change probability files 5 1 3 Subpopulation contest file 5 1 4 Subpopulation file 5 1 5 Strategy selector file 5 1 6 Events file 5 1 7 Trigger file 11 11 12 13 29 31 32 35 36 37 39 41 42 43 43 44 44 45 45 48 49 50 58 58 59 5 2 7 1 7 2 7 3 8 1 8 2 5 1 8 5 1 9 5 1 10 5 1 11 5 1 12 5 1 13 5 1 14 52l Mae 7 1 1 112 7 1 3 Ta ee 8 1 1 8 1 2 8 1 3 8 1 4 8 1 5 8 1 6 8 1 7 8 1 8 8 1 9 8 1 10 8 1 11 8 1 12 8 1 13 8 1 14 8 1 15 8 1 16 8 1 17 8 1 18 8 1 19 8 1 20 8 1 21 8 1 22 8 1 23 8 1 24 8 1 25 8 1 26 Land Use file Climate and Economy files Farm Scale Fixed Cost file Yield and Income symbol tree files Yield and Income lookup table files Grid file Government file Observation parameters Report configuration file Observer file 6 BATCH MODE 7 GUI MODE Social system displays Subpopulation displays Land Manager displays Land Market displays Environment displays Land Use disp
202. ta value to use in the grid file default 9999 8 1 21 PollutionReport Shows the total amount of Pollution 8 1 22 SpatialAutocorrelationReport Computes the autocorrelation index and p value using non free sampling of a specified number of samples of the requested spatial data Options e SpatialData The spatial data to report on default all of them which can be one of Price the most recent Price of Land Parcels LandUse the Land Use applied to Land Parcels OwnerChange the number of times the Parcels have changed owner LandUseChange the number of times the Parcels have changed Land Use Yield the most recent Yield of the Land Parcels Income the most recent Income of the Land Parcels or use All to explicitly request all of them e NSamples The number of samples i e random distributions of the data to use for computing the p value default 1000 8 1 23 SubPopDeathReport Shows the number of Land Managers from each Subpopulation that have lost all their Land Parcels this Year 8 1 24 SubPopulationGridFileReport Saves the Subpopulation of the Land Manager owning each Land Cell to the grid file Options e GridFile The name of a grid file to save the report to default is the gridFile parameter e NoData The no data value to use in the grid file default 9999 8 1 25 TimeSeriesReport Computes the kurtosis tail exponent and autocorrelation function for t
203. ted to be zero though for certain classes of Trigger it could make sense for both to be non zero 5 1 8 Land Use file The landUseFile parameter in the main parameter file may specify a file name If the file does not exist and the useLandUseFile parameter is set to 1 this will cause the model to save the Land Use Property value lists and other information in a file of that name These Land Uses can then be loaded in to a run with the same nLandUse parameter value and Land Use Symbols The useLandUseFile parameter should be set to 1 and the landUseFile contain the name of the file saved from the earlier run NumberOfLandUses Number of Land Uses integer When loading in Land Uses the NumberOfLandUses value given here must equal the nLandUse parameter in the main model file LU Land Use Property value lists Pollution floating point Minimum area for economies of scale p floating point Maximum area for economies of scale y floating point Maximum economy of scale o floating point The line above is repeated for each Land Use For an explanation of parameters 6 y and a see section 4 2 2 5 1 9 Climate and Economy files The Climate and Economy files both have exactly the same format The Economy will be saved to a file for each Year the model runs if the economyFile parameter in the main parameter file names a file that does not yet exist and the useEconomyFile flag is set to 1 The Economy will be loaded in if
204. tegy variance floating point This parameter should only appear if plmitateDist is normal or truncated normal memorySizeMin Minimum memory size for Imitative and Experimentation Strategies integer memorySizeMax Maximum memory size for Imitative and Experimentation Strategies integer imitativeStrategy Name of Imitative Strategy class to use See Table 4 Strategies with a Y in the Imitative column Use NoStrategy if plmitate is 0 or pCBR is 1 for all member Land Managers experimentationStrategy Name of Experimentation Strategy class to use See Table 4 Strategies with an N in the Imitative column Use NoStrategy if plmitate is 1 or pCBR is 1 for all member Land Managers 5 1 4 5 CBRAdviceSubPopulation class The CBRAdviceSubPopulation class provides parameters for CBRAdviceLandManager and CBRDelayedChangeLandManager classes in addition to those in sections 5 1 4 3 and 5 1 4 4 These parameters define the limits on the case base and the strategy for seeking Advice The case base limits use uniform distributions to specify limits on the number of cases that can be stored in the case base and the number of Years cases will be remembered for The limits can be set to 0 to indicate no constraint A somewhat counter intuitive and not recommended option is to set the minimum of the limit to zero and the maximum to something else In such a case the uniform distribution of limited case bases will be from 1 to
205. ter than the specified threshold set the approval to zero e Give the Land Manager the computed amount of approval 11 2 LandUseGroup Trigger This trigger may approve or disapprove or even both of a Land Manager e Loop through the Land Parcels owned by the Land Manager e If any Land Parcel has a Land Use matching the property symbol pair list given as parameter then issue the Land Manager the specified amounts of approval and disapproval 11 3 NeighbourPollution Trigger This trigger may approve or disapprove but not both of a Land Manager e Loop through the Land Parcels owned by this Land Manager and determine the mean pollution e Loop through the Land Parcels owned by the Land Manager to potentially be approved or disapproved of and determine the mean pollution e If the mean pollution of this Land Manager is greater than the Land Manager to potentially be approved or disapproved of then give the Land Manager the specified amount of approval e Ifthe mean pollution of this Land Manager is less than the Land Manager to potentially be approved or disapproved of then give the Land Manager the specified amount of disapproval 11 4 ThresholdPollutionTrigger This trigger will only disapprove of a Land Manager e Loop through the Land Parcels owned by the Land Manager to potentially be disapproved of e If any Land Parcel has a Land Use with a Pollution amount greater than the specified threshold then give the Land Manager th
206. th nHistogramBins 8 imitators _ Ex Imitators managers 05 075 L 1 25 neighbourhood weighting Figure 28 showNWeightDist 1 with nHistogramBins 8 Experimenters Sele Expenmenters a D n a m E 26 2 x 43 3 52 5 61 2 70 aspiration threshold Figure 29 showThresholdDist 1 with nHistogramBins 8 7 1 1 2 CBRSocialSubPopulation CBRStrategySubPopulation CBRAdviceSubPopulation and CBRDelayedChangeSubPopulation class Subpopulation displays These classes of Subpopulation all have social Approval and Disapproval operating among member Land Managers Various displays are provided to show some of the behaviour Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 76 Conservationists LS al x Productivists Mimea Froductivists Figure 30 showApprovedGraph 1 One graph is shown for each Subpopulation as illustrated Conservationists Productivists Conservationists Productivists Figure 31 showApprovingGraph 1 One graph is shown for each Subpopulation as shown Conservationists Productivists Mmea Conservationists Productivists on outliers 0 0 l outliers 0 0 fu ha E D m m E managers fea a ee ei Pe lon ee 205 1 1 02 0 512 0 0 512 1 02 1 54 1 1 02 0 512 0 0 512 1 02 1 4 2 05 salience ratio In p a salience ratio nipa a b Figure 32 showSalienceDist with nHistogramBins 8 One graph
207. the Subpopulation level defining Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 34 distributions for parameters of member Land Managers that once set for an individual Land Manager do not change Selection Strategy class Description 4 BuyCheapestSelectionStrategy Intended to represent an acquisitive strategy for accumulation of Land Managers using this strategy bid for the Parcels they give the least value to This is a bit odd however as presumably the bids will not be particular competitive and if the Manager did win the Parcels themselves are not estimated by the Manager to have much value BuyDearestsS electionS trategy Managers using this strategy bid for the Parcels they value most highly first R andomS electionS trategy A random selection of bids is made Note that some Bidding Strategies such as Wealth Multiple do not discriminate among Land Parcels Table 9 The Land Parcel Selection Strategies available sae nt fAccount lt 0 or Randd lt pSellUp Notify Land Allocator that all Parcels in the Estate A EOE SSE WA Sal ARE CDS Add Parcel for sale to sale_list them fromthe Estate Notify Managers in social neighbourhood of each Parcel in sale _list Notify Managers in physical J neighbourhood of each Parcel in sale_list truni gt Lard Orfar Threshoid Use Bidding Strategy to create a Bid forthe Parcel Seiection Strategy ailows Bid Add Bid to bid_list for Parcel Add
208. the Year in which they were created The ontology generation process uses Obj C s rather rudimentary reflection functionality to convert the objects and classes in the simulation to individuals and concepts in the ontology Since OO programming languages and description logics are formalisms with different semantics and purposes naturally the translation process is not trivial Some objects and classes in the model are at least intended to represent ontologically significant entities but this prototype ontology generation feature rather too rigidly translates the OO structure into the ontology In particular the OO inheritance hierarchy cannot be relied on as it is in this prototype feature to reflect the concept hierarchy in the ontology In some cases it works quite well For example ThresholdDisapprovalEvent is a subclass of NeighbourDisapprovalEvent and since all instances of ThresholdDisapprovalEvents could by their definition also be instances of a NeighbourDisapprovalEvent it would be correct to say that ThresholdDisapprovalEvent is a subconcept of NeighbourDisapprovalEvent In other cases however the OO hierarchy can be utterly misleading For example CBRStrategyLandManager is a subclass of CBRSocialParcelLandManager in the OO hierarchy because it adds extra functionality to the latter However since setting pCBR of a CBRStrategyLandManager to 1 0 means it behaves in exactly the same way as a CBRSocialParcelLandManager the for
209. the economyFile parameter contains the name of an existing file and the useEconomyFile flag is set to 1 The same applies to the Climate and the climateFile and useClimateFile parameters The format of the file is simple one line per Year with each line having the required property value list If the run is loading in property value lists from a file and the file ends before the run s termination Year then subsequent Climates Economies will be generated using the change probabilities Note that these probabilities must be set even if it is not expected they will be needed Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 60 5 1 10 Farm Scale Fixed Cost file The farm scale fixed cost file consists simply of a series of floating point numbers separated by white space a new line is recommended to be used in consecutive Years as the farmScaleFixedCosts parameter If the simulation continues beyond the end of the farm scale fixed cost file then the farmScaleFixedCosts parameter will remain constant at the last value loaded The Farm Scale Fixed Cost value to use during initialisation would be the farmScaleFixedCosts parameter value Note however that since no harvest takes place during initialisation this value would not have any influence on the model The first farmScaleFixedCosts value loaded from the farm scale fixed cost file will therefore be that to use in Year 1 5 1 11 Yield and Income symbol tree files Symbol t
210. the format for a class in which a simple list of Land Uses is required with no value to associate with each LandUse Land Use label 1 LandUse Land Use label 2 LandUse Land Use label 3 and so on for all Land Uses the Government is concerned with The Land Use label is the property value list of the Land Use with each symbol or property value separated by a space Where the Government class requires a value to be associated with each Land Use e g a target or a reward this value is simply separated from the Land Use label with a space the class simply expects the last word on the line to be the value to associate with the Land Use LandUse Land Use label 1 value 1 LandUse Land Use label 2 value 2 LandUse Land Use label 3 value 3 and so on for all Land Uses and associated values the Government is concerned with Typically there is no need to provide information for all Land Uses Land Uses not specified using the LandUse parameter are ignored by the Government 5 2 Observation parameters 5 2 1 Report configuration file The report configuration file is used to specify the reports that are required as output from the model any options for those reports and in what Years the reports are to be made Reports are discussed in more detail in section 8 1 where a list of currently available reports is also to be found in subsections The format of this file is a series of statements in a simple language separated by
211. the maximum limit with an unlimited case base given to some Land Managers with probability 1 Z 1 where L is the limit CBTimeLimitMin Minimum number of Years Land Managers may store cases for integer Use 0 for an unlimited case base time limit CBTimeLimitMax Maximum number of Years Land Managers may store cases for integer This can be non zero if CBTimeLimitMin is 0 though this is not recommended practice CBSizeLimitMin Minimum size of the case base integer Use 0 for an unlimited case base size CBSizeLimitMax Maximum size of the case base integer This can be non zero if CBSizeLimitMin is 0 though this is not recommended practice adviceStrategy The name of the Advice Strategy class that will be used to decide who to seek Advice from See Table 6 for a list of options Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 58 5 1 4 6 CBRDelayedChangeSubPopulation class The CBRDelayedChangeSubPopulation class gives parameters for the CBRDelayedChangeLandManager class in addition to those in sections 5 1 4 3 5 1 4 4 and 5 1 4 5 The change delay is taken from a uniform distribution changeDelayMin Minimum number of Years a Manager will wait before changing Land Use integer changeDelayMax Maximum number of Years a Manager will wait before changing Land Use integer 5 1 5 Strategy selector file The strategy selector file contains a list of strategies for Land Managers in the LandManager and Positi
212. ther is that it does not address the issue that the amount Approval as well as Profit can be changed by Estate size 4 2 1 5 Land Manager class CBRStrategyLandManager CBRStrategyLandManagers decide as per CBRSocialParcelLandManagers except that when their Aspiration Thresholds are not reached they have a chance determined by their individual value drawn from the Subpopulation distribution determined by parameters pCBRDist pCBRMin pCBRMax pCBRMean and pCBRVar of using Case Based Reasoning as opposed to a Strategy from Table 4 when choosing a Land Use When using a Strategy they have a probability sampled from Subpopulation parameters pImitateDist pImitateMin pImitateMax pImitateMean and pImitateVar of using an imitative rather than a non imitative Strategy For those Strategies that work with a Memory the size of the Memory is determined by sampling from a uniform distribution at Subpopulation level with parameters memorySizeMin and memorySizeMax CBRStrategyLandManagers can thus be made to behave in exactly the same way as LandManagers with HabitStrategy as their contentment Strategy pCBR 0 or in exactly the same way as CBRSocialParcelLandManagers pCBR 1 Refer to Table 4 for a list of Strategies available Rand 0 lt X lt 1 lt CBR Probability oF lien aba ae anal t w Rand 0 lt X lt 1 lt Imitative Probability Use non imitative Strategy Figure 11 UML Activity Diagram showing part of the decision
213. tion The zone in which to issue rewards default everywhere LandUse label List of awardable Land Uses The reward per unit area to be given for any awardable Land Use on a Parcel owned by the Manager The reward per unit area to be given for any awardable Land Use on a neighbouring Parcel using the same Land Use as the Manager s The maximum reward a Manager may receive per Year 4 3 4 4 Government class BudgetClusterActivityGovernment Description Land Managers are awarded for putting awardable Land Uses on Parcels where this will contribute to increasing the contiguous area devoted to a Land Use Land Managers are given a reward for using an awardable Land Use on any Parcel they own and then extra if the awardable Land Use is used by a neighbouring Manager on a neighbouring Parcel Rewards are made as shares of a fixed budget that must be spent if any reward is made with the exception that there is a cap on the total reward a Land Manager may receive per Year Parameter Parameter description The zone in which to issue rewards default everywhere LandUse label List of awardable Land Uses The reward share per unit area to be given for any awardable Land Use on a Parcel owned by the Manager The reward share per unit area to be given for any awardable Land Use on a neighbouring Parcel using the same Land Use as the Manager s Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 4 4 3 5 Reward Land Use
214. to use for the awards The cap on the total reward a Land Manager can receive in a Year 4 3 4 Reward Land Uses in a contiguous cluster The following is a series of Government classes that encourage clusters of contiguous areas of Land Uses but in a slightly different manner to the NbrSubsetActivityGovernment and SortNbrSubsetActivityGovernment classes Here Managers are given an award even if an awardable Land Use is not part of a contiguous cluster of Parcels having the same Land Use However encouragement for Land Uses in a contiguous area is given through offering an extra award for neighbouring Parcels having the same Land Use 4 3 4 1 Government class ClusterActivityGovernment Description Land Managers are awarded for putting awardable Land Uses on Parcels where this will contribute to increasing the contiguous area devoted to a Land Use Land Managers are given a reward for using an awardable Land Use on any Parcel they own and then extra if the awardable Land Use is used by a neighbouring Manager on a neighbouring Parcel Parameter Parameter description The zone in which to issue rewards default everywhere LandUse label List of awardable Land Uses Reward reward The reward per unit area to be given for any awardable Land Use on a Parcel owned by the Manager NbrReward nbr The reward per unit area to be given for any awardable Land Use on a neighbouring Parcel using the same Land Use as the Manager s 4 3
215. tochastic process for setting them The Climate and Economy property value lists are determined initially at random with an equal probability for each symbol within a symbol property The probability of changing each Year for each property is given in a file climateChangeProbFile economyChangeProbFile see section 5 1 2 A probability of 0 means no change 1 a certain change To get a uniform random probability of any symbol in the property being selected each Year the probability should be set to n 1 n where n is the number of symbols in the property 4 1 3 Land Uses Each Land Use in a simulation is represented using a property value list and four numbers These do not change temporally and do not vary spatially either The symbols and properties for the Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 12 Land Uses may be stored in either the Income or the Yield symbol tree files or both in a group with name LlandUseGroupName If the symbols and properties for the Land Uses do not appear in the Yield symbol tree file then the position where they are expected to appear in the Yield lookup table file yieldTableFile should be given in the parameter yieldTreeLUpos Similarly if they do not appear in the Income symbol tree file then the incomeTreeLUpos parameter specifies where they are expected to appear in the Income lookup table file incomeTableFile See sections 5 1 1 5 1 11 and 5 1 12 for more information on how
216. ty examples in the case of Soil might be Clay or Loam The number of properties the name of each property and the set of symbols belonging to each property are specified in the Yield symbol tree file A single property can be used to describe the Biophysical Characteristics for example Land Capability Agriculture with symbols Class_1 Class 2 Class 3 1 etc There are two alternative ways of creating the Land Cell Biophysical Characteristics specified by useGridFile a Loading them from a file gridFile see section 5 1 13 b Creating them stochastically at the beginning of the run The Biophysical Characteristics property value list in each Land Cell is assigned a random symbol for each property with uniform probability Optionally a clumping algorithm may be specified with the purpose of making neighbouring Land Parcels more similar in their Biophysical Characteristics than the random distribution clumping Model 1 1 5 has two clumping algorithms One StateSwappingClumper swaps property value lists between pairs of randomly selected Land Cells if this increases the total similarity of Cells to their neighbours The random selection is unaffected by the number of times a Cell has been selected for swapping symbols previously The other clumping algorithm SymbolSwappingClumper operates similarly to StateSwappingClumper but swaps the symbols in each property one at a time between the pairs o
217. uch that toroidal topology influences are also shown virtually areas bordered by with the main Environment in the middle area bordered by 00000 Neighbourhood Adding 1 15 to list of neighbours of 2 16 00000 Neighbourhood Adding 2 15 to list of neighbours of 2 16 00000 Neighbourhood Adding 3 15 to list of neighbours of 2 16 00000 Neighbourhood Adding 1 16 to list of neighbours of 2 16 00000 Neighbourhood Adding 2 16 to list of neighbours of 2 16 00000 Neighbourhood Adding 3 16 to list of neighbours of 2 16 00000 Neighbourhood Adding 1 17 to list of neighbours of 2 16 00000 Neighbourhood Adding 2 17 to list of neighbours of 2 16 00000 Neighbourhood Adding 3 17 to list of neighbours of 2 16 00000 Neighbourhood MooreNeighbourhood PlanarTopology neighbourhood of 2 16 with radius 1 OPS TRAO T RETRATI Pa TOT ETRA A T E Ce Scere cs 0123456789012345678901234567890123456789 FEHEEEHHEHHEHHH H H H A H H A H H H H F H H FEEHEEHHEHHHEHHH HHHA H H H HH H HH HA H HAHH HAHHAH HHHH A e N OOO O a O A AAEN H aG OGO a ar Aa aa a O 1 f fi 1 1 1 1 fi 1 fi 1 f fi 1 1 1 1 fi 1 fi 1 f fi 1 1 1 t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 OMDATAUHBWNF OC WO ONAN DD 1 fi 1 fi 1 f fi 1 1 1 1 fi 1 fi t t t t t t t t t t t t t
218. um salience adjustment floating point This parameter should only appear if salienceAdjustDist uniform or truncated normal Mean salience adjustment floating point This parameter should only appear if salienceAdjustDist normal or truncated normal Salience adjustment variance floating point This parameter should only appear if salienceAdjustDist normal or truncated normal Distribution from which to set the profit aspiration member Land Managers This parameter should either be normal truncated normal uniform Minimum profit aspiration floating point This parameter should only appear if profitAspirationDist uniform or truncated normal Maximum profit aspiration floating point This parameter should only appear if profitAspirationDist uniform or truncated normal Mean profit aspiration floating point This parameter should only appear if profitAspirationDist normal or truncated normal Profit aspiration variance floating point This parameter should only appear if profitAspirationDist IS of Or IS 5 5 S of or IS S IS of or 5 S S S Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 56 normal or truncated normal approvalAspirationDist Distribution from which to set the approval aspiration of member Land Managers Thi
219. uncated normal Mean neighbourhood noise floating point This parameter should only appear if neighbourNoiseDist normal or truncated normal Neighbourhood noise variance floating point This parameter should only appear if neighbourNoiseDist normal or truncated normal Distribution from which to set the change neighbourhood weighting of member Land Managers This parameter should either be normal truncated normal or uniform Minimum change neighbourhood weighting floating point This parameter should only appear if changeNeighbourhoodWeightDist is uniform or truncated normal Maximum change neighbourhood weighting floating point This parameter should only appear if changeNeighbourhoodWeightDist is uniform or truncated normal Mean change neighbourhood weighting floating point This parameter should only appear if changeNeighbourhoodWeightDist is normal or truncated normal Change neighbourhood weighting variance floating point This parameter should only appear if changeNeighbourhoodWeightDist is normal or truncated normal IS iS IS IS Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 54 5 1 4 2 DelayedChangeSubPopulation class The change delay is taken from a uniform distribution DelayedChangeSubPopulations will also use parameters in section 5 1 4 1 changeDela
220. veLandManager classes to use for each element in the Land Manager Decision Algorithm and the probability that the strategy will be selected This allows if required Subpopulations to consist of Land Managers using different strategies for different elements in the Decision Algorithm NumberOfStrategyClasses Number of strategies appearing in this file integer Class AboveThresholdProbability BelowThresholdNonImitativeProbability BelowThresholdImitativeProbability InitialProbability The above headings should all appear on one line The file is designed to be readable in a spreadsheet package so separating the headings with tabs is a good idea though not necessary Name of strategy Probability Probability2 Probability _Probability4 The strategy names are given in Table 4 The first probability is the probability the strategy will be assigned as the contentment Strategy of a Land Manager The second probability is the probability it will be assigned as the innovative strategy The third is for the imitative strategy and the fourth the initial strategy typically RandomStrategy Where the distributions of parameters in the corresponding Subpopulation file have been appropriately set NoStrategy should be used with probability 1 to generate an error message if the Land Manager attempts to use it Thus for example if the minimum aspiration threshold is greater than the maximum possible yield then NoStrategy should have proba
221. ver that are given per subpopulation 2 Ontologies using FearlusThing as the top level class do not include the Environment which is a subclass of Discrete2d Model state ontologies include the Number class spuriously Pollution is not normalised by area in all cases 5 The C command line option is ignored when creating a framework ontology in GUI mode 6 If a framework ontology is created in GUI mode then subsequent requests for an ontology will result in the framework ontology being over written 7 The default URI for the model ontology does not work particularly well when model state ontologies import it 8 The Climate and Economy toggle probability array sizes are not checked against the number of relevant symbol groups a Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18
222. vious experiences IF mostAppropriateCase is a perfect match for state of the world st THEN break loop WHILE DO If the most appropriate case up until now is just perfect then the Land Manager does not look further This is intended to represent a situation in which no other case could be more appropriate and maybe because of that no further cases are remembered ELSE aCase Remove next case from episodicMemory lu comparison Compare aCase with mostA ppropriateCase relativeTo st IF comparison moreSimilar THEN Add mostAppropriateCase to consideredCases Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 21 mostA ppropriateCase aCase aCase is more similar to st than mostAppropriateCase 1s so aCase is now the most appropriate The previously mostAppropriateCase is added to a list of cases that have been considered IF comparison lessSimilar THEN Add aCase to rejectedCases aCase 1s less similar to st than mostAppropriateCase is so aCase is rejected this can be understood as if aCase did not even come to the Land Manager s mind in the first place IF comparison incomparable THEN Add aCase to consideredCases aCase and mostAppropriateCase are incommensurably close to st This means that aCase is more similar to st than mostAppropriateCase in some respects and less so in others Thus aCase has been considered but it does not replace the most appropriate case IF comparison equa
223. whom Approvers who are the approvers of whom Disapprovers who are the disapprovers of whom Approved who approved of whom Disapproved who disapproved of whom Advisors who are the advisors of whom Advisees who was advised by whom or Al to explicitly request all of the above Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 88 8 1 15 NetworkMatrixReport For each requested social network in each requested Year to report a CSV file is created containing the network matrix This matrix has one row and one column for each Land Manager with a 1 entered in each element where the row Land Manager is connected to the column Land Manager and a zero otherwise Options e Network As per NetworkDistributionReport e Prefix Allows a prefix possibly including a full path to be put in front of the default file name for each matrix produced 8 1 16 NetworkStatisticsReport Provides a number of statistics for each requested network Where the network is not fully connected i e where there exist Land Managers between which there is no path the statistics are computed for fully connected subsets of Land Managers The statistics include the diameter mean path length assortativity density and clustering coefficient For undirected networks the closeness centrality and centralisation index are also computed Options e Network As per NetworkDistributionReport e NotConnecte
224. wing neighbours of GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 316 at 30 31 is not a neighbour of drawing a line between 316 and 316 at 31 31 GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 316 at 31 30 is not a neighbour of drawing a line between 316 and 316 at 31 31 GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 317 at 31 32 is a neighbour of 316 GUINeighbourhoodDetail and not visited already GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 317 at 31 32 drawing neighbours of GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 317 at 30 32 is a neighbour of 316 GUINeighbourhoodDetail and not visited already GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 317 at 30 32 drawing neighbours of GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 297 at 29 32 is a neighbour of 316 GUINeighbourhoodDetail and not visited already GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 297 at 29 32 drawing neighbours of GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 297 at 28 32 is a neighbour of 316 GUINeighbourhoodDetail and not visited already GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 297 at 28 32 drawing neighbours of GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 277 at 27 32 is not a neighbour of drawing a line between 277 and 297 at 28 32 GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 296 at 28 31 is a neighbour of 316 GUINeighbourhoodDetail and not visited already GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 296 at 28 31 drawing neighbours of GUINeighbourhoodDetail Land Parcel 276 at 27 31 is not a neighbour of drawing a line betw
225. x Pees THE MACAULAY policy 4 INSTITUTE Grid FEARLUS Model 1 1 5 Zn i Bill Adam Al Alessandro Gimona Nick Gotts Luis Izquierdo Alistair Law Gary Polhill SSeS Dawn Parker Center for Socialt Complexity George Mason Universitys Fairfax VA United States of America gt a Macaulay Institute Craigiebuckler Aberdeen AB15 8QH United Kingdom Pete Edwards Paulina Hetman 3 Edoardo Pignotti Alun Preece Piotr Magnuszewski Computing Science _University of Aberdeen Aberdeen AB24 3UE United Kingdom Institute of Physics Wroc aw University of Technology 90 370 Wroc aw Poland na ens a SS ea Berry Davies Aberdeen Business School University of Aberdeen Aberdeen mt AB24 T United K ngeon anal matt ser Guide by Gary Polhill Nick Gotts amp Luis Izquierdo Contents 1 INTRODUCTION 2 INSTALLATION 3 SYNOPSIS AND COMMAND LINE OPTIONS 3 1 Controlling the seed and random number generator 3 2 Controlling the text output 3 2 1 Debugging output 3 2 2 OWL ontology output 3 2 3 Report output 3 3 Interaction with the grid 3 4 Summary 4 ONTOLOGY 4 1 Environment 4 1 1 Land Cells and Land Parcels 4 1 2 Climate and Economy 4 1 3 Land Uses 4 2 Land Managers 4 2 1 Land Use decision making 4 2 2 Income generation 4 2 3 Social approval and disapproval 4 2 4 Land Parcel transfer ELMM0 2 4 3 The Government Agent 4 3 1 Governmen
226. y let u v and w be three property value lists the similarity of which is to be compared uis MORE similar to w than v is if and only if The properties for which v has a symbol the same as w 1s a proper subset of the properties for which u does uis LESS similar to w than v is if and only if vis MORE similar to w than u is For a closer correspondence with the earlier imperfect matching example R should be a random ordering of the list R1 R2 R3 since all cases in the ellipsis will be less similar to the state of the world than E the perfectly matching case Created 2008 04 04 Modified 2008 04 18 Printed 2008 04 18 23 u has the SAME similarity to w as v if and only if u 1s equal to v uis INCOMPARABLE with v relative to w in the rest of the cases Relative distance is used as a proxy for Land Parcels similarity to each other if the parameter alwaysUseProximity is set to 1 Thus for three Land Parcels u v and w u is MORE similar to w than v if and only if u is closer to w than v using Euclidean distance between the co ordinates of the base Cell of each Parcel and has the SAME similarity to w as v if and only if u and v are equidistant to w The base Cell of a Parcel is the Cell closest to its centre If alwaysUseProximity is set to 0 and u v and w have one Cell each or each of u v and w have uniform Biophysical Characteristics on their Cells then Parcels are compared using the property value li
227. yMin Minimum number of Years a Manager will wait before changing Land Use integer changeDelayMax Maximum number of Years a Manager will wait before changing Land Use integer 5 1 4 3 CBRSocialSubPopulation CBRStrategySubPopulation CBRAdviceSubPopulation and CBRDelayedChangeSubPopulation classes Defines Subpopulation parameters for CBRSocialLandManager CBRSocialParcelLandManager CBRStrategyLandManager CBRNetApprovalLandManager CBRFarmScaleProfitLandManager CBRAdviceLandManager and CBRDelayedChangeLandManager classes For CBRStrategySubPopulation CBRAdviceSubPopulation and CBRDelayedChangeSubPopulation additional parameters are required detailed in section 5 1 4 4 CBRAdviceSubPopulation and CBRDelayedChangeSubPopulation require further parameters outlined in section 5 1 4 5 CBRDelayedChangeSubPopulation has yet further parameters in section 0 triggerFile Location of a file containing the Triggers for this Subpopulation The trigger file format is given later eventFile Location of a file containing the Events for this Subpopulation The event file format is given later profitMinSalienceDist Distribution from which to set the profit minimum salience of member Land Managers This parameter should either be normal truncated normal or uniform profitMinSalienceMin Minimum profit minimum salience floating point This parameter should only appear if profitMinSalienceDist is uniform or truncated norm

Model 1-1-5 User Guide - The Macaulay Land Use Research Institute

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