to the FORECAST quickstart manual (
Contents
1. major pathways of nutrient cycling ecosystem inputs and losses ecosystem carbon budgets and carbon storage stand level economics energy efficiency and employment some limited wildlife habitat interpretations FORECAST Version 3 2 results i e graphs and tables can be exported to Windows 95 or Windows NT compatible spreadsheets and word processors 5 2 Loading the Software 2 1 Computer Requirements FORECAST Version 3 2 requires an IBM compatible 486 or better computer with a Windows 95 or Windows NT operating system 8 Mb of RAM minimum and at least 12 Mb available disk space FORECAST Version 3 2 will not run on a Windows 3 x operating system 2 2 Shipping List Your FORECAST program package should contain 3 diskettes FORECAST Quick Start Users Manual Registration sheet Registered users will be notified of program upgrades 2 3 How to Install FORECAST On Windows 95 systems the user should always install or remove software using Add Remove Programs which is located in the Control Panel To locate the Control Panel click the Start button and then select Settings After you have double clicked on Add Remove Programs in the control panel click the Install button Windows 95 will automatically locate the setup and from this point you should follow the instructions and supply any required information On Windows NT systems you can launch the setup by going to the File Manager clicking2. Table 5 2 6 The Employment Table 6 Product Information and Support 6 1 Copyright 6 2 Product Support 6 3 Acknowledgements and Credits The FORECAST Quick Start Users Manual is 1998 Ecocast Ltd Denman Island BC 250 335 2598 and Life Science Programming Ltd Naramata BC 250 496 5834 Windows 95 is a registered trademark of Microsoft Corporation 4 1 FORECAST FORestry and Environmental Change ASsessmenT 1 1 Intended Use and Objectives of the Model FORECAST is a stand level ecosystem management model designed to assess the sustainability of various ecosystem and social values over multiple rotation time scales under a variety of user defined management and natural disturbance regimes FORECAST is a hybrid simulation stand model It employs a combination of empirical data that define how a forest has grown in the past a historical bioassay of forest growth on the site in question with empirical and ecological process data that enables the model to forecast how this historical pattern might change in the future under altered growth conditions The model focuses on alterations to the availability of nutrients and light caused by forest management or natural disturbance wildfire or wind damage Changes in soil moisture due to climate change and alterations in competition for water between different tree and understory species are not simulated in the 3 2 version of the model but will be in a future version FORECAST i
3. and the revenue actual revenue from each activity net revenue from each activity and Cumulative net revenue If economic data are not given or if the economic input data set is incomplete this table will be irrelevant or inaccurate respectively The Economics section then presents an Analysis of several economic indicators derived from the management accounting table These are calculated for five different discount and interest rates selected by the user from zero to some upper number e g 10 These data are presented for each cycle and cumulatively over successive cycles 5 2 5 The Energy and Carbon Budget Tables The Energy Table is analogous to the economics accounting table except it simply gives energy costs benefits benefit cost ratio and cumulative net benefits The Carbon Budget Table presents an analysis of carbon inputs to and losses from the simulated ecosystem the ecosystem carbon balance the fate of harvested carbon e g in logs and the overall ecosystem end use carbon balance 5 2 6 The Employment Table The Employment Table gives the person days of employment for each management activity 24 6 Product Information 6 1 Copyright The FORECAST Quick Start Manual is copyright 1998 Ecocast Ltd Denman Island BC 250 335 2598 and Life Science Programming Ltd Naramata BC 250 496 5834 The FORECAST Ecosystem Simulation program FORECAST Navigator and the FORECAST Graphs and FORECAST Tables utility
4. brief bars of music The main screen will then appear See Figure 2 You can create a short cut to the FORECAST Navigator program by using the RIGHT mouse button to drag and drop the file Forecast exe onto your desktop and selecting Create short cut here from the menu which appears You may then start the FORECAST program by double clicking on the resulting icon 3Carbon budget analysis is not available in version 3 2 4If you installed FORECAST to a directory other than C Program Files Forecast you can start the program by using the Windows 95 Explorer to locate the file Forecast exe and then double clicking on that filename 11 Figure 2 The FORECAST Navigator Main Screen The different components of the Navigator main screen are explained below and in the FORECAST Navigator Help Files click on Overview on the Help opening page 4 2 FORECAST Data Sets 4 2 1 What is a Data Set Because information for the calculation or simulation of a given Ecosystem Simulation variable comes from a variety of files certain aspects of these files must be coordinated For example information which affects tree growth is supplied by the Tree Setup and Soil Setup Input files the Ecostate ecs file and the management file Ecodata edt If one of those files supplies data for two tree species and two nutrients then the other files must also supply data for the same two trees and nutrients Before it begins a run the Ecosystem Simulation program check
5. nutrients the simulated gains inputs and losses outputs and the net gain gains losses The right hand column of this table is called discrepancy It is the difference between Net Gain and the simulated Site Change If one has not simulated nutritional regulation of growth or nutritional site quality change FORECAST will have grown the trees herbs shrubs and mosses if all these were included according to the input data on how these have grown in the past This growth and the associated nutrient uptake and nutrient content will have been simulated irrespective of the simulated nutrient supply the model simply creates these extra nutrients when the trees and plants demand them The extent of this creation is given by the Discrepancy When nutrient feedback is switched on Discrepancy should be zero If this is not so there is either a data entry error or a software problem Note that nutrient feedback is controlled separately for each nutrient Thus for a nitrogen feedback run there should be zero discrepancy for nitrogen but there may be a non zero discrepancy for the other nutrients 23 5 2 4 The Economics Tables These tables present an accounting for each management cycle of the costs of each stand management activity Actual cost at the time of the activity Cycle cost interest to the end of the rotation on the loan taken out to perform the activity Cumul Cumulative actual costs plus interest to date
6. programs together with their allied Help files and documentation are copyright 1997 1998 Life Science Programming Ltd Naramata BC 250 496 5834 and Ecocast Ltd Denman Island BC 250 335 2598 6 2 Support Reports of program bugs or technical questions about the setup input files or about the results produced by the FORECAST Ecosystem Simulation program should be directed to Life Science Programming Ltd RR 1 Site 5 Comp 25 Naramata BC Canada VOH 1NO Phone or fax 250 496 5834 E Mail lifescip img net Questions about bugs in the program interface i e non working buttons or dialogue boxes should be directed to Rod Thauberger Thauberger Multimedia E Mail thauberger compuserve com Logo Questions about the Help files should be directed to Bill Waldie A Little hlp E Mail bwaldie img net If anyone had difficulty finding a help topic I would appreciate knowing the name of the topic and the search words used I would also like to know if anyone had difficulty understanding any Help file explanations 25 6 3 Acknowledgements and Credits Program Credits The FORECAST Ecosystem Simulation Concept and Design Hamish Kimmins Kim Scoullar Rod Thauberger Brad Seeley Clive Welham Daniel Mailly Robert Bradley Programming Kim Scoullar Rod Thauberger Help Files Hypertext documentation Users Manual Bill Waldie Hamish Kimmins Technical Support Technical administrative and secretarial suppor
7. several computer screens wide and is much easier to read Use the buttons to scroll along the expanded graph You can also make the graph screen larger by clicking on the button and removing the legend box This is a toggle switch to display the legend box click the button again If you would like data points shown click on the Click this icon again to return to a simple line graph For a 3 D presentation of the graphs click on the button To return to 2 D click this button again To print the current graphs click on the button Click on the button for Help 20 5 2 The FORECAST Tables Program Overview To access the Tables utility click on the Tables icon in the Utilities box or click and drag the Ecotab etb file to the button in the Utilities box see Figure 5 Along the left side of the Table utility screen there is a menu which expands in the same manner as the tree structure of the Windows 95 Explorer You follow the tree structure making choices as you go deeper into the analysis A double tree indicates that more information is available while a single tree indicates an open branch Figure 8 The Tables Choice screen from the left hand side of the FORECAST Tables main screen This example is for the implementation of the Management Table See Section 5 2 2 Each branch of the tree ends in a Table indicated by the icon You move along the tree structure by clicking on double trees or by using the cursor arro
8. the right end of the graph output file area before the ecosystem simulation runs you can assign a different filename and directory for the Ecoplot ept file 2 If the FORECAST Graphs program is already running then the drag and drop feature is inactive and you must switch to the graph program and load the Ecoplot ept file in the normal manner Once a PLOT file is opened a series of cascading menus appears Only one item can be selected from each menu A single click on a menu item selects that item and opens the next menu in the series When you reach the end of the series and no more selections are possible the selected variable is displayed as a graph You can back up through this series of menus by clicking on the in the upper right corner of each menu 18 Up to 8 variables all from the same PLOT file or from 8 different PLOT files may be placed on a graph at one time Variables from a particular PLOT file can be added by clicking on the button or pressing the A key as a shortcut and going through the cascading menus again Individual graph lines may also be removed from a graph in either one of two ways First you can click on the graph variable in the Legend box in the upper right of the screen that you want to remove and then click on the button Alternatively you can select the variable by clicking directly on its graph line to get the Series Attributes box for that line in the lower right of the screen see Fi
9. 1 FORECAST ECOSYSTEM SIMULATION and FORECAST NAVIGATOR Version 3 2 ______________ Quick Start Users Manual April 1998 A brief introduction to the stand level ecosystem management model FORECAST and its user interface FORECAST Navigator ___________________________________ 2 Table of Contents 1 FORECAST 1 1 Intended use and objectives of the model 2 Loading the Software 2 1 Computer requirements 2 2 Shipping list 2 3 How to Install FORECAST 2 4 If there are problems 3 The Overall Structure of the FORECAST Model 3 1 The Setup Input Files 3 1 1 Soil Data 3 1 2 Tree Data 3 1 3 Plant Data 3 1 4 Bryophyte Data 3 2 The Setup Programs 3 3 The Setup Output Files 3 3 1 General 3 3 2 The Inistate file 3 3 3 The Ecostate ecs file 3 4 The Management Data Ecodata edt file 3 5 The Ecosystem simulation program 4 FORECAST Navigator 4 1 Starting the FORECAST program 4 2 FORECAST Data Sets 4 2 1 What is a Data Set 4 2 2 Supplied Data Sets 4 2 3 How to open a Data Set 4 2 4 Red lines on flow chart pipes 4 3 Running a Setup Program 4 4 Preparation of an Ecostate ecs File 4 5 Preparation of an Ecosystem Simulation Run 3 5 FORECAST Output 5 1 The FORECAST Graph program 5 1 1 Graph Axis Options 5 1 2 Graph Program Abilities 5 2 The FORECAST Tables program 5 2 1 Summary table 5 2 2 Management tables 5 2 3 The Ecosystem Tables 5 2 3 1 Discrepancy 5 2 4 The Economic Tables 5 2 5 The Energy
10. an Ecostate ecs file has been produced see below all the pipes will lose their red color except the pipe between the Management Data file and the Ecosystem Simulation boxes The red in this pipe is removed when the Ecosystem Simulation program is run but returns each time you edit the Management Data Ecodata edt file 15 In addition to the graphical and SoilTRND files the soil Setup program produces an Inistate file This is a file template which is used subsequently by the Ecosystem Simulation program to prepare the Ecostate ecs file a description of the state of the ecosystem compartments at the start of the simulation 4 4 Preparation of an Ecostate ecs file To establish the state of the ecosystem at the start of a simulation run the Ecosystem Simulation program acting on user provided instructions in the Management Data File uses the Inistate file and data from the TRND files on how trees and other plants have grown in the past on a particular site and on the past rates of processes on that site to grow a forest that closely resembles the forest from which the calibration data came but subjected to a user defined history of management or natural disturbance The condition of the ecosystem at the end of this make state simulation run is captured in an Endstate file This make state run is performed with nutrient feedback and simulation of site quality change disabled The contents of the Endstate file can be examined by opening
11. enarios The Scenario Output Analysis The ecosystem simulation output is analyzed both graphically and in tabular form Forecasts of future forest structure and ecosystem function and of various social values are compared for different stand management and natural disturbance scenarios Multiple scenario comparisons form the basis for the educational and extension tool FORTOON 3 1 The Setup Input Files 1 The data described below are obtained from a variety of sites that vary in soil fertility FORECAST uses data on soil processes and tree plant growth from sites of different nutritional status to formulate simulation rules concerning the response of tree and plant growth and soil processes to changes in site fertility caused by management or natural disturbance This does not however deal adequately with the fact that nutrient rich sites are often moister than nutrient poor sites Thus the model s response to nutrients may for some forests be confounded by the effect of 1At first sight the input data files appear somewhat intimidating In reality not all the data entries are required to run FORECAST The complexity of the input files comes in part from the desire to enable the user to add detail to the simulation if the calibration data are available The user can at will greatly simplify FORECAST with corresponding reductions in calibration requirements Remember however that omitting a process or compartment can result in a greate
12. ess other graph variables which have low numeric values so all of the visual information about their time trends is lost Option 2 is included because it is useful for comparing different variables from a simple run that have the same Y axis scale e g the tallest or the shortest tree height total and available soil nitrogen or for comparing a single value e g stem biomass from several different runs 5 1 2 Graph Program Abilities When you are looking at output covering several rotations in which all the rotations are the same length and you would like to overlay the values and time trends of one variable from successive rotations i e compare one variable with itself over all the rotations in the current simulation run click the button and chose that variable from the pop up menu This will produce a graph with the X axis equal to the length of the rotation and with the different rotations of the chosen variable shown in different colors This is helpful in a detailed comparison of rotation to rotation changes in a variable To return to the original graph in which the X axis is equal to the total length of the simulation run click on the button If the simulation run consisted of a single rotation the button is disabled If you are simulating different length rotations within a single management cycle this option does not work You can expand the X axis of a graph by clicking on the button The graph expands to become
13. etup input files to apply a smoothing function to these data and to pass these smoothed functions a set of simulation rules that are derived from these functions and other data and the driving function and various process rates to the Ecosystem Simulation Program A detailed description of the setup programs is presented in the main Users Manual which is incorporated into the FORECAST Help files This description is not repeated here 3 3 The Setup Output Files 3 3 1 TRND and PLOT Files Two types of file are produced by each of the four Setup programs every time they run 1 TRND files which contain all the simulation rules and process rates extracted from the input data by the setup programs They are compiled binary files which pass the setup data to the ecosystem simulation program TRND data are inaccessible to the user 2 PLOT files which include a presentation of time trends in variables based on a input data to which a smoothing function has been applied and b combinations of input data that have been used to simulate other variables that are not represented in the input data The PLOT files let the user access the data in their respective TRND files Users may thereby evaluate the results produced by the setup program smoothing routine and see what effect it had on their input data Users can also determine how well the simulation rules based on combinations of input data represent other ecosystem and plant processes The Ec
14. f rotations that have been defined within a management cycle in the Management Data Ecodata edt file 5 2 3 The Ecosystem Tables Unlike the Management Tables the Ecosystem Tables in FORECAST Version 3 2 only report summaries over each management cycle Where a cycle a rotation this provides rotation summaries Where cycle rotation the tables only give a summary over the run i e where the run 1 cycle or for each of the cycles a group of different rotations that have been simulated The tables present results for each cycle and a summation over all cycles i e the entire run For each cycle and the run summation tables of nutrient inputs and outputs i e geochemical and management inputs and outputs are presented for each tree species each herb shrub and bryophyte species For each tree and other plant species the tables summarize total production over the cycle the average production per time step and the quantity of this production that is lost to litterfall leaves branches bark roots fruit and to individual tree mortality or stem mortality for herbs and shrubs The tables then summarize for the nutrients the user is simulating the total uptake loss in litter internal cycling cycling internal retranslocation of nutrients symbiotic fixation for nitrogen and the nutrient content of planted seedlings 5 2 3 1 Discrepancy The final screen displays an accounting of the simulated change in inventories of
15. gure 7 and then clicking the button If clicking on an individual line proves difficult graph lines are thin try clicking where the line changes direction sharply If that doesn t work activate the data points feature by clicking on the button This will put large markers at each year along the graph line these markers are easier to hit You can remove this Series Attributes box by a If the Legend is already on i e visible by clicking its button and turning it off the Series Attributes box will also be turned off and will remain off when you turn the Legend back on b If the Legend is off by clicking the legend button twice and turning it on and then off Figure 7 The Series Attributes box which when implemented appears at the lower right of the graphs screen 5 1 1 Graph Axis The X axis of all graphs is Time with the axis maximum value equal to the total length of the simulation run The Y axis however has two options 1 The default Each line added to a graph is plotted to its own Y axis maximum i e the Y axis scale represents 0 100 of the maximum absolute value reached by that variable on that run This is selected by the button 19 2 The option A graph with a single absolute maximum value given for the Y axis and with all variables plotted on this common scale This is selected by the button The problem with 2 is that a graph variable with a high numeric value will suppr
16. he number of Setup and Ecosystem Simulation output files you can save Where the user wishes to save the output files produced by any of the setup programs or by the ecosystem simulation program they may click on the Options button and then check the box beside the types of output files they want to save The dialogue window which lets you select a suitable filename and directory for the output file s will appear automatically whenever any of those programs are run This procedure automates the act of clicking on the button see below 5 FORECAST Simulation Program Output 5 1 The FORECAST Graphs Utility Overview The graphs utility can be accessed by clicking on the Graph Utility icon in the Utilities box on the FORECAST Navigator main screen Figure 2 or by drag and drop of an ecoplot ept or other ept file from its window to the graphics icon Figure 5 The former method is used to look at Setup graphical output files For inspection of Ecosystem Simulation graphical files either method can be used 17 Figure 6 Navigator Graphs Main Screen To examine the graphical output of for example the current run of the Ecosystem Simulation e g Figure 5 1 If the FORECAST Graphs program is not running you can drag and drop the graph output file on the graph icon in the Utilities box Figure 5 The default filename for the graphical results of an Ecosystem Simulation run is Ecoplot ept If you click on the at
17. igure 3 it is soilplot spt can be examined in the FORECAST Graphs program 2 A TRND file which is passed to the Ecosystem Simulation Model This file contains the simulation rules that are used in the ecosystem simulation If the user is using the input file editor to prepare several modifications of an Input Data file each modification must be given a unique filename The filename extension sdt for soildata tdt for treedata pdt for plantdata or bdt for bryophyte data must be retained Rename the file by using the File Save As command in the file editor After an input data file has been edited and renamed the pipes which connect that input data box to the other parts of the FORECAST program will be colored red This alerts you to the fact that the setup program has not been run Until the setup program runs successfully the edited input data will not be compiled into a new TRND file and passed to the ecosystem simulation program If you want to save the spt files associated with the different sdt files you have created output spt files can be renamed using the button in the setup program window This must be done before the setup program is run As noted in Section 4 2 4 the pipes are all colored red when you first start the FORECAST Navigator program When you open a Data Set the pipes will remain red if the input data files have not been run through their applicable Setup programs As soon as this is done and as soon as
18. ing wildfire or windthrow final harvest clearcut or partial harvest shelterwood or a simple multiple age class system The user can provide economic energy and employment data if she or he wishes to forecast economic performance energy efficiency of management and employment outcomes of the simulated management The management data file employs the concept of management cycle A management cycle is a unique set of management instructions which is repeated without change for as may cycles as are called for up to a maximum single run length of 250 time steps for most uses of the model a time step 1 year but it could be a week or a month if you are prepared to ignore seasonality Actually runs can be continued for as many multiples of 250 time steps as desired by linking multiple runs of 250 time steps see Users Manual for details of how this is done Run FORECAST Navigator Help the Users Manual is available on the opening page 10 If all the rotations in your scenario are identical a cycle a rotation When rotation cycle it is only necessary to define the management for the first rotation The program will repeat these instructions for as many cycles as you have called for If the different rotations within a single simulation run are not identical a cycle defines all the details of all the rotations In this case there is a single cycle in the run equal in length to the sum of all the rotations in it Every detail of eve
19. ion in evergreens how long dead branches stay on the tree stem data that define fine root turnover data that define how much of the annual photosynthesis of an evergreen occurs at a time when deciduous competitors have no leaves and how height growth is affected by shading These data are used to calculate the model s driving function for tree growth Shade Corrected Foliage Nitrogen Efficiency or SCFNE carbon allocation between different biomass components and the effect thereon of changes in nutrient availability the allocation of growth ha between different individual trees nutrient uptake demand and internal cycling symbiotic nitrogen fixation litterfall and fine root turnover and various other simulation rules 3 1 3 Plant Data The data in this file are mostly similar to the data in the Tree Data file except fewer biomass compartments are defined there is no requirement for data on individual plants i e change in number of stems ha with age stem size frequency with age and various other characteristics defined in the Tree Data file are not required 3 1 4 Bryophyte Data FORECAST has a very simplified representation of the growth of bryophytes and the input data requirements are correspondingly simple 8 3 2 The Setup Programs There is a separate setup program for Soils Trees Plants and Bryophytes 2 As noted above the function of these programs is to take chronosequences of values of the variables given in the s
20. isturbance regimes The Ecosystem Simulation program is then run When the run is completed the results can be examined both graphically and in tabular form This can be done either by clicking on the graphical or tabular utility icon selecting Ecoplot Files from the list of graphical files and then selecting the current Ecoplot ept file or selecting the current Ecotab etb file respectively Alternatively and more directly the current files can be examined by clicking and 16 dragging the graphical or tabular output file to the appropriate utility icon See Figure 5 Figure 5 Illustration of the drag and drop method of using the graphical and tabular utilities for ept and etb files When the run has been analyzed in graphical and or tabular form the user may chose to define one or more additional management and or natural disturbance scenarios in the Management Data Ecodata edt file and re run the Ecosystem Simulation program By giving the graphical and tabular output files different names for each run the user can build a library of these files for later analysis and comparison Careful records must be kept of the Management Data file used to create each run This can be done by saving each Management Data file under a separate name which is coordinated with the respective output file names In a future version of FORECAST recalling the Management Data file for each output file will be automated Available disk space will limit t
21. life Blacktail deer and Pileated woodpecker Name of Data Set 2 Lodgpine fds Prepared by X H Wei and J P Kimmins Location Interior of British Columbia Williams Lake Ecological zone Sub boreal Pine Spruce zone very dry and cold Trees Lodgepole pine and Sitka spruce Plants No local data provided File contains default data for fireweed and salmonberry from the CWH zone Bryophyte CWH Moss complex Same as for plants Wildlife Blacktail deer and Pileated woodpecker Same as for plants 13 Name of Data Set 3 Comeau fds Prepared by D Sachs and P Comeau Location Southern Vancouver Island British Columbia Ecological zone Coastal Western Hemlock zone Dry subzone Trees Douglas fir Western Red Cedar Red Alder Western Hemlock Plants Fireweed Salmonberry Salal Bracken fern Bryophyte CWH moss complex Wildlife Blacktail deer and Pileated woodpecker Name of Data Set 4 BorSpruce fds Prepared by J R Wang Location Northeastern British Columbia Ecological zone Boreal White and Black Spruce zone Trees White spruce and Aspen Plants Bluejoint and Berry Bryophyte BWBS Moss complex Wildlife Blacktail deer and Pileated woodpecker Same as for Lodgpine fds 4 2 3 How to Open a Data Set 1 Click on the Open Data Set icon 2 Double click on the Data Set filename you are interested in or 3 Highlight the Data Set you want to open and click OK Only one Data Set may be opened at a time If you ope
22. n a second Data Set FORECAST will close the one that is already open You will be prompted to save any edited files Click on the to access the FORECAST help files These include our on line User s Manual and the Scientific Foundations Manual After a Data Set has been opened the names of its input data files will appear in their respective Setup windows The Setup windows are located along the left side of the FORECAST Navigator See Figure 2 The FORECAST Ecosystem Simulation cannot be run until a Data Set has been opened and all the setup programs run 4 2 4 Red Lines on Flow Chart Pipes Before you can run FORECAST calibrated with a particular Data Set the Soil Tree Plant and Bryophyte input data must be processed by their respective Setup Programs Until this has been done the pipes connecting the input data boxes to their setup program boxes and the setup program boxes to the Ecosystem Simulation box will be colored red After the setup programs have been run successfully the pipes will be colored grey as in Figure 3 14 Figure 3 Soil Setup input data file and program 4 3 Running a Setup Program To run a Setup program click on the button in the upper left corner of the Setup Program box The setup program will produce two output files 1 A graphic output PLOT file which demonstrates how the input data are used in preparing a set of simulation rules that are the basis for the Ecosystem Simulation Model This file in F
23. on the icon of the drive containing the distribution disk then double click on Setup exe If you install FORECAST with Add Remove Programs you will also be able to uninstall it using Add Remove Programs 2 4 If there are problems with the installation please contact Life Science Programming Phone 250 496 5834 E Mail lifescip img net 6 3 The Overall Structure of the FORECAST Model The FORECAST model is structured into three major components the ecosystem setup the ecosystem simulation and the scenario output analysis The Ecosystem Setup The Setup also has three major components a Input data which describe how trees plants shrubs and bryophytes have grown in the past and which constitute the historical bioassay Additional data define tissue nutrient concentrations plant responses to light and soil processes b Programs that estimate from the historical bioassay and the other input data a set of simulation rules and process rates c Empirical output with which to monitor aspects of the setup process and a file containing the simulation rules and process rates for transfer to the Ecosystem Simulation program The Ecosystem Simulation Simulation of the forest ecosystem response to a variety of management practices and natural disturbance regimes based on the simulation rules and process rates defined by input data and derived by the Setup programs Simulations of different management and natural disturbance sc
24. on the valve between the Inistate and Ecostate ecs file boxes to select the appropriate file Figure 1 Figure 1 The Inistate and Ecostate ecs file boxes joined by a valve See Figure 2 3 3 3 The Ecostate ecs File This file which contains a description of the values of all state variables at the start of a simulation i e a model run is prepared by running the Ecosystem Simulation program with nutrient feedback and site quality change simulations disabled and with an appropriate Inistate file This allows the model to grow a forest and permits forest floor and soil organic matter levels to develop as they have in the past on the site in question and as described by the historical bioassay input data The user can create an Ecostate ecs file reflecting different histories of site disturbance or management but without a simulation of nutrient control of growth or site quality change 3 4 The Management Data File Ecodata edt This file gives the user the opportunity to describe the plant community composition nutrient feedback processes natural disturbance regime and management regime that are to be represented in the ecosystem simulation The user defines which species will regenerate in which year and at what density whether there will be site preparation by slashburning thinning and fertilization conventional fertilizer or organic wastes such as sewage sludge or other organic materials stand density control thinning and prun
25. osystem simulation program also produces its own PLOT file Ecoplot ept This file holds the graphical results of the ecosystem simulation program acting on input data received from the setup programs via the four TRND files the simulated ecosystem condition at the start of a run from the Ecostate ecs file and the user defined management or natural disturbance scenario that is being simulated from the Ecodata edt file 2In the present version of FORECAST all setup files must be completed and the setup programs run If the user does not wish to use one of the setup modules Bryophytes for example he she can declare no bryophytes and edit the setup input file appropriately However a much simpler approach is to use a default setup data file for bryophytes but not use bryophytes in the ecosystem simulation program A new user may wish to contact Life Science Programming for advice on this 9 3 3 2 The Inistate File The Ecosystem Simulation program requires a detailed description of the values of all compartments state variables in the model at the start of a simulation run This description is provided by the Ecostate ecs file described below Whenever you create a new Ecostate ecs file you must begin with a blank Ecostate ecs file i e one that has had all of its compartment values set to zero This blank Ecostate ecs file is the Inistate file which is produced every time the Soil Setup program runs Click
26. r error in the simulation than including a well based estimate of that process or compartment The opposite may also be true The user must make the final decision on the degree of detail to be included 7 differences in soil moisture in the input data from the different sites This issue will be addressed in a future version of FORECAST 3 1 1 Soil Data Data on rates of decomposition of litter wood and other types of organic matter humus decomposition soil exchange capacities nutrient inputs from rain and other natural sources the different forms of nitrogen and various optional additional soil data e g phosphorous exchange rates in mineral soil These data are used in the Ecosystem Simulation program to establish the geochemical balance of the site the rate of nutrient cycling in the biogeochemical within ecosystem nutrient cycle and to simulate soil organic matter trends 3 1 2 Tree Data Data on biomass accumulation as a stand ages by biomass component leaves branches bark stemwood roots and nutrient concentrations in these components data on tree height stand density stem size frequency and light extinction below the canopy as a function of foliage biomass related to stand age data on the photosynthetic response of shade adapted and light adapted foliage to variations in light intensity data that define biomass aging e g the sapwood to heartwood conversion and litterfall e g number of years of leaf retent
27. ry rotation must be defined by the user 3 5 The Ecosystem Simulation Program The Ecosystem Simulation program accepts from the Setup programs simulation rules that describe how the tree and other plant species being represented have grown in the past under a range of nutrient availability conditions It combines these rules with input data on the response of the different species to light competition data from which to simulate shading and a variety of other input data to simulate tree understory herbs and shrubs and bryophyte growth under future conditions These conditions include future levels of nutrient availability and light and of nutrient competition that result from simulated management and or natural disturbance The model also forecasts future soil organic matter and nutrient resources ecosystem level carbon budgets3 and the stand level economic energy use and employment implications of the simulated scenario FORECAST Version 3 2 produces two types of output file that present these forecasts a graphical file Ecoplot ept and a tabular file Ecotab etb that are accessed through the graphics and tables utilities of FORECAST Navigator 4 FORECAST Navigator Version 3 2 4 1 Starting the FORECAST Navigator Program 1 Click the Windows Start button 2 Go to Programs then locate and select FORECAST 4 3 The FORECAST program will start As the FORECAST program loads you will see a screen of an even age forest and hear a few
28. s mainly intended as a model of even age forest growth and for the analysis of even age silvicultural systems i e clearcutting or shelterwood It can simulate relatively simple mixtures of tree species and understory plant species Very simple assessments of some types of uneven age management are possible and version 4 0 will have the ability to simulate multiple cohorts of a given species all individuals in a given cohort being of the same age This will expand the capabilities of the model to undertake simulations of uneven age silvicultural systems However it is not suitable for the detailed assessment of uneven age silvicultural systems or for the analysis of tradeoffs between even age and uneven age systems The major intended use of FORECAST Version 3 2 is for the assessment of the sustainability of various values in even age stands over multiple rotations Its primary objective is to provide a decision support tool for use in 1 Certification of the sustainability of even age forest management sustainability defined as a non declining pattern of change and 2 Comparison of the possible consequences of alternative even age stand management scenarios FORECAST has the ability if provided with appropriate calibration data to forecast future values of tree biomass growth nutrient content and timber harvest yields soil organic matter nutrient capital and fertility minor vegetation biomass growth and nutrient content
29. s to see that all of the input files are coordinated in the prescribed manner If they are not the program returns an error message and will not run In order to help users keep track of the group of coordinated files that supply input data to the Ecosystem Simulation program FORECAST uses the concept of a Data Set Data Sets which use the filename extension fds Forecast Data Set are groups of coordinated files Data Sets are stored in compressed form and are automatically decompressed whenever they are opened in the 12 FORECAST Navigator environment You might think of a functioning Data Set as someone s description of a forest ecosystem Once a Data Set is opened the individual user input files it contains may be altered i e edited as you see fit The editor for this purpose is built into the FORECAST Navigator Only one Data Set may be opened at a time In order to prevent confusion it is suggested that the editor be used only in Replace i e overwrite mode when you are changing numbers 4 2 2 Supplied Data Sets Once the FORECAST Navigator is running you can load one of the four example Data Sets supplied with FORECAST Name of Data Set 1 Dougfir fds Prepared by J P Kimmins and K A Scoullar Location Southern Vancouver Island British Columbia Ecological zone Coastal Western Hemlock Zone Dry Subzone Trees Douglas fir and Red Alder Plants Fireweed and Salmonberry Bryophyte CWH Moss Complex Wild
30. t for the development of this software was provided by Min Tsze Gail Johnson Scoullar and Maxine Horner Financial Support for the Development of FORECAST FORECAST has been developed using modeling strategies developed for FORCYTE 11 the development of which was funded by Canadian Forestry Service BC Ministry of Forests and National Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada NSERC FORECAST development has been funded by Ministry of Forests of BC FRDA and FRBC BC Science Council Canadian Pulp and Paper Association of Canada Ontario Ministry of National Resources National Resources Institute UK NSERC Greater Vancouver Regional District and by the University of British Columbia in the form of salaries and facilities All these sources are gratefully acknowledged 26
31. the Ecoplot ept and the Ecotab etb files in the graphical and tabular utilities This lets the user ensure that the simulated system is in the condition from which he or she wishes to start the analysis of alternative scenarios If the simulated ecosystem condition is not as desired for the start of a management scenario simulation this process is repeated with a modified set of instructions in the Management Data Ecodata edt file When the desired condition is achieved copy the Endstate file to the Ecostate ecs file by clicking on the pump icon Figure 4 The software will then be ready to begin scenario analysis Figure 4 The pump icon transfers the Endstate file to the Ecostate est file Note in preparing the Ecostate ecs file the user may have to run the Ecosystem Simulation program several times each time copying the Endstate file to Ecostate ecs This may be necessary in order to build up equilibrium levels of variables soil organic matter for example which may not reach steady state within the time period of a single simulation presently set at 250 time steps which for most data sets means 250 years 4 5 Preparation of an Ecosystem Simulation Run With the desired Ecostate ecs file established the user edits the Management Data file Ecodata edt to re engage nutrient feedback and site quality change simulation and to establish the desired ecosystem composition and the desired processes and management scenario and or natural d
32. ws to move the highlight up and down the tree and pressing ENTER to open a highlighted branch When you have loaded an Ecotab etb file you can view the tables by clicking on their individual icons explained below Figure 9 shows the overall Tables screen 21 Figure 9 The FORECAST Tables main screen 5 2 1 The Summary Table This shows a summary of the files used to produce the current run the file and program version number the species and nutrients being simulated and details of the run e g nutrient feedback site quality at the start of the run and the length and number of the management cycles explained in Section 3 4 5 2 2 The Management Tables These tables present a summary of every management entry into the stand e g site preparation by fire or mechanical litter raking planting or other regeneration stand density control and commercial thinning pruning and fertilization litter raking final harvest The tables are broken down by trees general site management plants and bryophytes Within trees a table is broken down by treatment planting thinning final harvest within a treatment e g thinning by cycle and within a cycle by year with a note of rotation in the tables Note that a cycle a rotation when your run consists of a single rotation or a series of identical rotations If you are simulating a series of rotations that differ from each 22 other in some way a cycle the complete set o
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