What`s new in @RISK 4
Contents
1. 700 25 Skewness 0 163875723 30 237 435 64 Kurtosis 4731061 35 270 323 81 Median 429 104 75 40 302 098 47 Mode 130 975 93 45 361 575 75 Left X 2176 01 50 423 104 75 Left P 5x 55 481 855 06 Right X 799 999 98 60 530 758 63 Right P 86 03 65 605 732 81 Diff x 797 823 97 70 662 746 63 Diff P 81 03 75 708 433 75 RErrorz 80 758 220 38 Filter Min asx 795 731 63 Filter Max 30 847 357 88 Filtered 937 153 81 Values in 10 6 1 10 36 500 17 Number of Comf 0 dumber of Compettiore r26 a Number of Com 0 Mu mbor o tcu mpettorcl26 a S Number o fca mpsttoreasas 35 Number of Competirons at Number otCampottnr w26 i 28 MumberotCampettorak26 Balog vol ume Ne 184 Number of Comf 0 Number of Comf 0 Sales Volume Balog Volume KE2 1 Balog volump ie2 188 B Mu mber of Ca mpedtor wt 26 1 att Capit Bpm v wied Sales Volume Y Capital Expense 0 Salez Volume Y Baleg VolumpAce2 Balog val umpaAs2 4 ais as 025 Sales Volume Sales Volume Y srldddla sestesillelaaaeehidblevijine alee Valume 2 t Enhanced Define Distribution Window The pop up Define Distribution window includes several new enhancements designed to make the graphical definition of probability distributions easier These include e A new Enter Excel Reference icon allows the poi2. customized distribution in terms of cumulative descending percentiles New RiskTargetD and RiskPercentileD Statistics Functions These two new functions allow you to generate target and percentile values in terms of descending percentile values Changes to the Define Distribution Window New Distribution Palette The Define Distribution Window now contains a distribution palette for the quick selection of distributions Access the palette by clicking the Dist button This palette also appears when adding an overlay to a graph New Select Excel Reference Icon While you have always been able to type references directly into the Define Distribution Window you now can click on Excel references directly using the Select Excel Reference icon New Menu Options for Controlling Distribution Overlays Several new menu items have been added to the right click popup menu for adding removing and editing overlays Simply right click ona distribution s graph in the Define Distribution Window Improved Default Distribution Parameters The Define Distribution Window now generates smart default parameters for your distributions when you add overlays or switch between different distribution types New Alternate Parameters You can now specify alternate distribution parameters for many distributions using percentiles For example you can specify a normal distribution with a 5th percentile of 10 and a 95th percentile of 20 C
3. What s New in RISK 4 5 Overview RISK 4 5 brings a set of new analyses and new options to allow easier modeling and more in depth studies on GRISK 4 0 models New enhancements include Three New Advanced Analyses Advanced Sensitivity Analysis Stress Analysis and Goal Seek GRISK Professional and Industrial only Alternate Parameters for Probability Distributions allowing the entry of percentile parameters as arguments to many input probability distributions These alternate parameters are available in both the pop up Define Distribution window or in distribution functions in Excel Cumulative D escending Percentiles where percentile probabilities can be optionally reported as cumulative descending values as well as cumulative ascending values Alternate percentile parameters for probability distributions can also be entered as cumulative descending percentiles Quick Reports single one page reports in Excel containing statistics and graphs for a simulation result formatted for printing Enhanced D efine Distribution window with point and click selection of references from Excel a pop up distribution palette for selecting distributions a new right click menu and other enhancements Improved Error Reporting during simulation where the Pause On Error option now identifies the output s with errors and the cells in your model that caused the error for each The RISK 45 directory on your system contains multi media tuto
4. arameters for probability distributions In addition arguments to the RiskCumul probability distribution may be entered using descending probabilities A new set of GRISK functions allow the entry of these cumulative descending values Each of these functions has a D after the function name such as RiskCumulD RiskNormalAItD etc For more information on using these functions see the Reference RISK Functions chapter of this manual Quick Reports Quick Reports are single one page reports in Excel containing statistics and graphs for a simulation result Quick reports can be generated by simply right clicking on a graph in the GRISK Results Window and selecting Quick Report or through the GRISK Report Settings dialog Using the Settings dialog you may also choose to automatically generate Quick Reports for each output in your model at the end of a simulation GS SS ES ES ES Ee Simulation Results for NPY 10 C10 G Distribution for NPW 10 C 10 Workbook Name Finance xlz i Number of Simulations 1 Number of Iterations 100 Number of Inputs 22 Number of Outputs Sampling Type Latin Hypercube Simulation Start Time erv2oot tts Simulation Stop Time ranv200118 19 Simulation Duration co 00 00 Random Seed sisiossgo Minimum 20 076 46 Maximum 1 064 501 25 Mean 451 533 12 15 102 777 84 Std Dev 303 765 04 20 131 002 68 Variance s227sisett6 25 137
5. ced analyses Goal Seek Stress Analysis and Advanced Sensitivity Analysis Each of these is described in detail in the new RISK 4 5 multimedia tutorial Goal Seek The GRISK Goal Seek is analogous to Excel s built in Goal Seek but modified to take advantage of simulation By running multiple simulations GRISK s Goal Seek allows you to change a specific cell to reach a target goal for the output such as a standard deviation of 1000 or a mean of a 5000 To run this analysis click the Goal Seek icon on the expanded GRISK toolbar or choose the Goal Seek item from the RISK A dvanced Analyses menu Stress Analysis Stress analysis allows you to see the effects of stressing an input to an extreme range of its domain For example if you havea distribution for Cost in your simulation model stress analysis would let you quickly see the effects of forcing the Cost distribution in the highest 90 percentile You can start this analysis by clicking on the Stress A nalysis icon on the expanded GRISK toolbar or by choosing the Stress A nalysis item from the RISK A dvanced Analyses menu Advanced Sensitivity Analysis Advanced sensitivity analysis allows you to see the impact of changing mode parameters on the outputs of a simulation This analysis creates a large number of statistics and graphs including spider plots box plots and histograms that allow you to analyze the impact of your changing cells You ca
6. documentation New RISK 4 5 Tutorial The GRISK 4 5 tutorial been updated to demonstrate the significant new features of GRISK The new tutorial is in Window s M edia Viewer wmv format You can start the tutorial by choosing the Programs P alisade D ecisionT ools T utorials T he RISK 4 5 Tutorial item in Window s Start menu Changes in Product Authorization Auto Authorize If you are connected to the Internet G RISK 4 5 can be automatically authorized When the authorization dialog appears when you first launch GRISK choose the A uthorizeN ow button and then select the A utomatic option
7. e From Base Value 7 Alternate Parameters for Probability Distributions RISK 4 5 allows the entry of percentile parameters as arguments to many input probability distributions This allows you to specify values for specific percentile locations of an input distribution as opposed to the traditional arguments used by the distribution For example the distribution RiskN ormal 100 20 specifying a normal distribution with a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 20 could also be entered as RiskNormalAIt 5 67 10 95 132 89 specifying a normal distribution with the 5th percentile at the value of 67 10 and the 95th percentile at the value of 132 89 Percentiles may also be mixed with the standard distribution arguments such as RiskNormalA It mu 100 95 132 89 specifying a normal distribution with a mean of 100 and the 95th percentile at the value of 132 89 These alternate parameter functions may be entered directly in your spreadsheet as with other GRISK distribution functions or in the Define Distribution window bw Define Distribution for E32 Ea oe 0 95 4000 E A e a Normal 5 0 95 4000 Source Function a r z ao fF tr min inniy tr max fanfrity E st fo B Values x 10 4 Values in Thousands OE o 5 0 0000 4 0000 New Fit The ALT icon Sampling Distributions with Alternate Parameters Clicking the ALT icon allows you to switch from sta
8. eral values and a full simulation was run at each value 4 total of 98 simulations were completed Output Reference C32 Po Gutput S Name Analysis _ Value Mean Min Max Price Hippo xlz Base 10 00 2 420000052 2 532 683 308 523 4 677 793 702 035 Year 1 Market Si Hippo xls Base 10 00 1100000 2 541 533 830 538 4 585 163 653 132 Price Hippo xlz Base 6 67 2 346666725 2 498 752 875 546 4 507 378 676 606 Year 1 Market Si Hippo xls Base 6 67 1066666 67 2 464 522 363 552 4 446 225 667 337 Year 1 best shar Hippo xlz Base 10 00 0 763399387 2 434 387 810 581 4 524 560 704 663 Price Hippo xlz Base 3 33 2 27333333T 2 404 621 342 563 4 336 157 651 117 Compet age _ Hippo xls Baze 10 00 0180000003 2 336 230 850 733 4 201 606 630 511 Year 1 best shar Hippo xls Base 6 67 O 746666656 2 333 416 810 457 4 405 531 675 034 Year 1 Market Si Hippo xls Base 3 33 1033333 34 2 387 506 336 566 4 307 260 646 483 Year 1 most likel Hippo xls Base 10 00 0 440000007 2 361 334 811 414 4 216 301 626 430 Mean of NPV C32 vs Percentage Change of Inputs 2600000 Price C16 2500000 Unit Var Cost CIT Interest Rate C18 Entrant Prob C13 2400000 Compet Xage E16 Year 1 Market Size E17 z 2300000 p Ag Year 1 worst share E18 Year 1 most likely E13 Year 1 best share E20 2200000 Market Size Year 1 best share D23 Market Size E23 2100000 Market Size F23 Market Size G23 2000000 10 5x 0x 5 10 Chang
9. es sub menu contains three new analyses Goal Seek Stress Analysis and Advanced Sensitivity Analysis which are described in the next section Expanded and Collapsed Toolbars RISK 4 5 s toolbar can be in two modes of operation The collapsed mode displays all the same icons as GRISK 4 0 s toolbar The expanded mode displays advanced options available in the Professional and Industrial Edition of GRISK including distribution fitting goal seek advanced sensitivity analysis and stress analysis You can switch between the two toolbar modes by clicking the last icon on the toolbar or by selecting the Show Expanded Toolbar item in the RISK O ptions menu Prompting for Output Names When you add an output using the A dd Output icon GRISK will now prompt you for an output name You can turn this feature off and on by selecting the Prompt for O utput N ames item in the RISK O ptions menu Descending Percentiles Mode RISK now allows you to specify that reports and statistics use cumulative descending percentiles values instead of the default cumulative ascending percentiles This option is accessed using the D isplay Cumulative D escending Percentiles item in the RISK O ptions menu RISK Splash Screen Removed For improved launching speed GRISK no longer shows the GRISK splash screen when it launches New Advanced Analyses The Professional and Industrial versions of GRISK 4 5 come with three new advan
10. ive selection in the explorer list has been added This icon duplicates the same options available on the Insert Graph menu Changes in Excel Reports New Excel Based Quick Reports Two new Excel based Quick Reports are available which are formatted for printing You can select to generate these reports in the Report Options Dialog or by right clicking on an GRISK output in the GRISK Results Window and choosing the Q uick Report command Cell Formatting in Output Reports Excel reports now mimic the formatting you have applied to output cells when displaying statistics and data for those outputs Changes to Tutorial Documentation and Help Systems Improved On line Manual with Navigational Bookmarks The RISK 4 5 on line manual has been improved with a set of navigational bookmarks New Probability Distribution Function Documentation The probability distribution help file PDF HLP which was located in the DTOOLS SYSTEM directory has been replaced with the file DISTFUNC PDF which is now in Adobe PDF format You must have a copy of Adobe Acrobat Reader which is available for free at www adobe com to view this file New Macro Documentation All information relating to the control of RISK using VBA macros has been moved to the files RISKMACRO CHM in HTML Help format and RISKMACRO PDF in Adobe PDF format which are located in your DTOOLS RISK45 directory This information is no longer available in the printed
11. lick the Alternate Parameters icon to show the Alternate Parameters Dialog Changes in the RISK Model Window Toolbar Changes Two toolbar changes have been made to improve navigation in the GRISK Mode window First anew Insert toolbar is available for creating new windows and Fit Tabs Second the Fitting toolbar has been made context sensitive and will only appear when the active tab is a Fit Tab Generating RISK Functions from RISK Model Windows You many now put GRISK distribution functions directly into Excel from an Artist Distribution or Fit Result window using the Write Function to Excel command which is available on the right click menu for these windows In addition for an Artist Window this command is available on the A rtist toolbar and the Artist menu Generating RISK Distribution Windows from an Artist Window When you choose the Create D istribution command from an Artist Window you now get a distribution that only reflects the marked points of the Artist Window To change the number of data points in the distribution you generate change the number of markers Deleting of RISK Input Functions In GRISK 4 0 you were able to remove GRISK output functions from your spreadsheet using the M odel menu s Remove Functions command In G RISK 4 5 you may now also remove input function using the same command This command is also available on the right click context menu of the input and output explorer li
12. n start this analysis by clicking on the A dvanced Sensitivity Analysis icon on the expanded GRISK toolbar or by choosing the A dvanced Sensitivity Analysis item from the RISK A dvanced Analyses menu Changes in Simulation Options Improved Pause on Error Option The Pauseon Error in Outputs option has been improved and now allows you to scroll through your spreadsheet so you can better identify and correct modeling errors This option is available on the Iterations tab of the Simulation Settings Dialog New Multiple CPUs Option A new option for users of the Industrial Edition of GRISK is available on the Iterations tab of the Simulation Settings Dialog The U se M ultipleCPUs option allows you to make use of all the CPUs on your multiple CPU machine when running an GRISK simulation See the user s manual for more information Changes to Spreadsheet Functions Alternate Distribution Parameters You can now specify alternate distribution parameters for many kinds of distributions For example you can specify a normal distribution with a 5th percentile of 10 and a 95th percentile of 20 using the function RISKNormalA t 5 10 95 20 To specify alternate parameter distribution using cumulative descending percentiles use the AltD function For example RISKNormalAItD 95 10 5 20 See the GRISK manual for more information New RISKCumulD Distribution The function RISKCumulD has been added so you can specify a
13. ndard distribution arguments to alternate percentile arguments Humal 4heinate Gichttlins Parameter Ei ipni Pyrs beats Pyare Ca Percentile 5 cs G Fanmi 5 x is e A set of percentile arguments may be set as the default for a given distribution type so that every lognormal distribution for example will be entered using a 10h and 90 percentile value During asimulation GRISK calculates the appropriate distribution whose percentile values equal those alternate parameter values entered and then samples that distribution Just likeall G RISK functions the entered arguments may be references to other cells or formulas and argument values may change iteration to iteration during a simulation For more information on the GRISK distributions that are available using alternate parameters see the Reference RISK Functions chapter of this manual or check the list shown when the class of functions titled RISK Distrib Alt Params is shown in the Function Wizard in Excel Cumulative Descending Percentiles RISK 4 5 can report percentile probabilities as cumulative descending values as well as cumulative ascending values This option causes reports to display percentiles as the probability of obtaining a value above a given threshold The display of cumulative descending percentiles is selected on the GRISK add in menu O ptions command Cumulative descending percentiles may also be used in specifying alternate percentile p
14. nt and click selection of cell references for distribution arguments e A pop up distribution pallete displayed when the Dist button is clicked makes the selection of a distribution type easier Distribution Palette Primary Curve i i UU Yt Ti Th WWW IWS wwe ear AIALA ALALIA AAAA e A new right click menu for easy selection of Define Distribution window options Viera ey 0 i Improved Error Reporting The Pause on Error in Outputs option in the Simulation Settings dialog now provides a detailed listing of the outputs for which errors were generated during a simulation and the cells in your spreadsheet that caused the error When an error is generated for a simulation output in an iteration of a simulation the Pause on Error in Outputs dialog shows each output for which an error was generated and the cell whose formula returned the error value You can also review the formulas and values for cells which are precedents to the error causing cell in order to examine values which feed into the problem formula Detailed Listing of New and Changed Features Changes to the RISK Add in Interface New RISK Sub Menus The main GRISK menu in Excel contains two new sub menus The Options submenu contains three general program options described below Show Expanded Toolbar Prompt for O utput N ames and Display Cumulative Descending Percentiles The Advanced Analys
15. rials that illustrate the new capabilities of GRISK 4 5 These tutorials require a media player capable of running WMV files and aPC with audio Description of New Features Advanced Analyses The Advanced Analyses include Advanced Sensitivity Analysis Stress Analysis and Goal Seek Each of these uses GRISK s multiple simulation capability to analyze a simulation model Goal Seek allows you to find a specific simulated statistic for a cell for example the mean or standard deviation by adjusting the value of another cell Stress Analysis allows you to analyze the effects of stressing RISK distributions Stressing a distribution restricts samples drawn from the distribution to values between a specified pair of percentiles or samples a new stress distribution instead of the original distribution in your model Advanced Sensitivity Analysis allows you to determine the effects of inputs on GRISK outputs An input can be either an RISK distribution or a cell in your Excel workbook Advanced Sensitivity Analysis runs a full simulation at each of a set of possible values for an input tracking the simulation results at each value Each of these analyses has its own dialogs and generates a set of pre formatted reports and graphs in Excel Advanced Analysis Report This report summarizes changes to the simulated distribution for NPV caused by stepping in Excel Lon tiene ek through 14 inputs Each input is stepped through sev
16. st Changes in the RISK Results Window Improved Filter Dialog The Filter Dialog available under the Results menu has been improved with anew grid for entering filters and options for globally disabling and enabling filters New Automatic Bin Minimum and Maximum Options For Histograms There are now two automatic histogram binning options The default auto option uses the range of the data set to determine the histogram s minimum and maximum regardless of the graph s x axis scaling The auto axis scale option forces the bins to be also within the range of displayed x axis This was the default binning options in GRISK 4 0 Relative Frequency Histograms You can create histograms that display relative frequency instead of density by selecting the Relative Frequency option in the H istogram O ptions section of Format Graph Dialog Errors Reported in Statistics Summary Window Any errors encountered during a simulation are now summarized in the last column of the Summary Statistics Window Previously this information was available only in the Detailed Statistics Window New Quick Report Option for Outputs A new option on the right click context menu in the explorer list allows you to generate a Quick Report of an output This quick report is placed in Excel and is formatted to fit exactly on a single printable page New Graph Icon in Insert Toolbar A new icon in the Insert toolbar for graphing the act
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