- Department of Defence
Contents
1. Australian Government Department of Defence Defence Science and Technology Organisation The Scenario Analysis Tool Suite A User s Guide Cigdem Dilek Joint Operations Division Defence Science and Technology Organisation DSTO GD 0560 ABSTRACT This document is a user guide for the software product the Scenario Analysis Tool Suite version 1 5 The tool suite implements several scenario analy sis techniques Morphological analysis Field Anomaly Relaxation analysis Battelle approach Bayesian approach as well as an extended approach of combining methods Thus the tool provides the opportunity to compare these techniques using a specific strategic question and provides computer support for the new combined technique APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE DSTO GD 0560 Published by Joint Operations Division DSTO Defence Science and Technology Organisation Fairbairn Business Park Department of Defence Canberra ACT 2600 Telephone 02 6265 9111 Facsimile 03 6265 2741 Commonwealth of Australia 2009 AR No AR 014 360 January 2009 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE ii Contents 2 4 Installation of the Scenario Analysis Tool Suite 2 2 Installation of Java Runtime Environment IRE 3 Exploring the Morphological Analysis Tool Environment eee eee CURL eee re ee rer QE E A 3 sre said OR EY Sue OR UR cR 3 4 1 New Analysig s oe acu OE BG RON 242 Save Analvsid 25 499 RR RE C2. Scenario Selection Criteria Maximum number M Gt Rating 2 fo OR Minimum average Vv compatibility rating value foo I l 4 C AND Marginal Probabilities Default Criteria Enter Estimated Marginal Probability For individual outcomes factors in the table below The sum of The scenario has number of rating 2 probabilities of Factors in the same sector should be equal to 1 0 After each entry press the ENTER key less than or equal to the maximum number of rating 2 OR the average P1 P2 P3 El Ez ES 51 52 s JT2 T3 JA2 A3 q compatibility is greater than or equal AL to the minimum average compatibility rating value xl _ Back Next Figure 9 Matrix of Pairs amp Marginal Probabilities Panel 6 1 Initial Data Input 6 1 1 Entering a Compatibility Rating of a Pair of Factors Once a morphological analysis is open and the Matrix of Pairs and Marginal Probabilities table have both been created as seen in Figure 9 the compatibility ratings of pairs of factors can be entered To do this click on a cell referenced by the two factors for which you would like to give the rating of and enter a value An input value of 1 to 5 inclusive is accepted refer to the Matrix of Pairs Table Legend Once a value has been entered the Enter key must b
3. De Kluyver C A amp Moskowitz H 1984 Assessing Scenario Probabilities via Interactive Goal Programming Management Science 30 3 273 278 Hornik K 2007 The R FAQ http CRAN R project org doc FAQ R FAQ html Makhorin A 2006 GLPK GNU Linear Programming Kit http www gnu org software glpk glpk html Nguyen M T amp Dunn M 2009 Some Methods for Scenario Analysis in Defence Strategic Planning Technical Report Series DSTO TR 2242 Defence Science and Technology Organisation Australia Nicholson J A 2005 Scenario based planning and strategic risk management applied to the defence environment in Proceedings of the Land Warfare Conference Gold Coast Australia Rhyne R 1974 Technological forecasting within alternative whole futures projections Technological Forecasting and Social Change 6 133 162 Rhyne R 1981 Whole Pattern Futures Projection Using Field Anomaly Relaxation Technological Forecasting and Social Change 19 331 360 Rhyne R 1995 Field anomaly relaxation the art of usage Futures 27 657 674 Sarin R K 1978 A sequential approach to cross impact analysis Futures 10 53 62 Sarin R K 1979 An approach for long term forecasting with an application to solar electric energy Management Science 25 543 554 Stephens A K 2006 Future Urban States a Field Anomaly Relaxation Study Technical Report Series DSTO TR 1910 Defence Science and Techno
4. allows the user to progress through the morpholog ical analysis method by providing the use of Back and Next buttons located at the bottom right of each step the welcome screen can be accessed from any stage of the method by choosing Help gt Welcome screen There are three steps in the morphological analysis 1 brainstorming a question and then brainstorming the problem at hand into sectors then selecting those sectors that will be used in the analysis 2 brainstorming factors for each sector and then selecting those factors that will be used in the analysis and 3 creating a morphological space The user may also use the steps listed Brainstorm Problem Breakdown Components and Matrix of Pairs under the menu item Morphological Analysis located at the top of the tool by clicking the required step 3 3 User Help The user may retrieve assistance in using the program by choosing Help User Documentation This will open the user documentation for reference whilst using the tool Or alternatively click on User Documentation via the Welcome screen shown in Figurel2 3 4 Basic Functionality 3 41 New Analysis To create a new analysis DSTO GD 0560 1 Choose File gt New Analysis 2 You will then be prompted to save the current analysis Click Yes to save the analysis and follow the steps in Section Click No to continue without saving the current analysis and this will take you to the first phase of the analysis Clickin
5. question into the text area adjacent to the question indicator in the Brainstorm Question step as seen in DSTO GD 0560 Figure 4 This may be revised later even if the user has progressed to later screens by using the back button Morphological Analysis Tool 1 0 E ioj xl File Morphological Analysis Help AE Brainstorm Question Question Australia s Joint Operations for the 21st century states regional factors such as state fragility poor governance and economic underdevelopment may affect Australia s security interests both directly and indirectly s a result a key task for ustralia s Defence Force is to contribute to a stable regioni environment Brainstorm Sector Click to start entering analysis question New Sector Create Remove Edit Select a sector to indude in analysis G ype of Operation required by ADF F Concurrent Obligations lt Remove List of sectors to be included in the analysis lt lt Remove All le Description Back Next Figure 4 Brainstorm Question amp Selecting Sectors 5 2 Sectors The analysis technique requires that the problem be broken down into sub systems or components which are referred to as sectors These sectors could be brainstormed using the tool or entered into the tool after a white board brainstorming session Instructions in the next subsection refer to the sector screen shown in Figurel4 5 2 1 Creating a New Sector
6. that this version is installed on the machine on which the executable will be run on Java JRE 1 6 can be downloaded from 3 Exploring the Morphological Analysis Tool Environment This section of the document aims to guide the user through the Morphological Analysis Tool referred to from now as the MA Tool It supports a brainstorming process that ultimately produces amongst other things a matrix of pairs of factord4 also referred to as a morphological space in literature thereby helping to explore a strategic questio Pl The tool and the documentation assume that the user using the tool is familiar with the morphological analysis method 17 The MA Tool is a standalone tool that can be used to perform a complete morphological analysis It was designed with the intent that it would normally be used in combination with the Combined Analysis Tool that is described in Section 4 and 6 of this report 3 1 Running MA Tool To run the MA Tool 1 From the Start Menu navigate to the directory in which the Scenario Analysis Tool Suite has been installed 2 Click Morphological Analysis Tool This will run the tool and display the screen shown in Figure P The user has been identified as a decision maker in the field of strategic planning who is familiar with the morphological analysis technique and does not require familiarization with the technique The MA Tool employs the terminology used in the Field Anomaly Relaxation method by r
7. 0 14 Cluster AnalysisPanel llle 21 15 Cluster Information 22e 22 16 Integer Programming Panel o oo 23 DSTO GD 0560 1 Introduction The Scenario Analysis Tool Suite version 1 5 which is comprised of both the Morpho logical Analysis Tool and the Combined Approach Tool has been created as a practical companion to the report on Scenario Analysis Methods in Defence Strategic Planning 6 The report itself compares several techniques used in scenario analysis and identifies their usefulness and limitations Noticeably non Bayesian method e g Morphological Analysis MA 17 Battelle approach 16 Field Anomaly Relaxation FAR 9 10 does not consider the probabilities of influencing factors on the problem investigated therefore the selected scenarios may have very small probabilities and could not practically be a basis of a meaningful planning effort While the Bayesian method e g Cross Impact Analysis using System of Equations 12 or Goal Programming GP 3 requires marginal and conditional probabilities for the pairs of factors as input High demands are therefore placed on the expert s ability and willingness to make these estimates Furthermore the Bayesian method takes all scenarios into consideration In consequence the scenario probabilities are often very small The purpose of the strategic planning process is to reflect possible alternative devel opments wh
8. 1A2C2 1 3 286 20 P3E151T2H2A2C2 2 3 143 21 P3E1S2TIH1A2C2 3 3 095 22 P3E1S2T1H2A2C2 3 3 143 23 P3E1S2T2H1A2C2 3 3 048 24 P3E152T2H2A2C2 2 3 19 25 P3E251T2H1A1C2 o 3 619 26 P3E251T2H1A1C3 1 3 714 27 P3E251T2H1A2C2 1 3 286 28 P3E251T2H1A3C2 1 3 286 29 P3E251T2H2A2C2 2 3 143 30 P3E2S2T1H1A2C2 3 3 095 i31 P3E2S2T1H2A2C2 3 3 143 32 P3E2S2T2H1A2C2 3 3 048 33 P3E2S2T2H2A2C1 3 3 333 34 P3E2S2T2H2A2C2 2 3 19 pa peser Figure 11 Results using Battelle Approach A table of scenarios remaining their number of rating 2 value and average compatibility value are shown The user at this stage may like to go back and review their input data or progress to the next stage 6 3 Projecting Scenario Distribution Using Bayesian Approach Combined Approach Tool 1 5 XI Please wait while the computation takes approximately 68 seconds Figure 12 Computation Time for Bayesian Approach 19 DSTO GD 0560 Once the user has finalized the scenarios retrieved from conducting the Battelle Ap proach the user can click the Next button to progress to the results of conducting the Bayesian Approach A message prompt estimating how long the calculation will take is then display Figure 12 When this has been acknowledged the calculations will start The results are shown in a table where each scenario has its configuration and its probability displayed iei xi File Combined Analysis Help 4 Scenario Descriptions
9. Factor Descriptions Scenario Probabilities 1 The probabilities of the selected scenarios are shown in the table below Indicate which scenarios will be removed from Further consideration by entering Y in the Remove Scenario column Probabiity 15 9 7 z jz jz P2E2SITZHIALCZ POE2ZSIT2HIAICS P2E251T2H1A2C1 l rzrzrerrzrrII TIN Final Stage For the final stage of the combined analysis Cluster Analysis can be performed to choose representative scenarios or Integer Programming can be used for a balanced mix of plausible scenarios Choose the analysis which will be used in the Final stage Cluster Analysis Integer Programming Figure 13 Outputs from Conducting Bayesian Approach 6 4 Confirming Selected Compatible Scenarios By default those scenarios which have a probability of zero have been set to be excluded from the next stage of the analysis e To remove additional scenarios from the analysis enter a value of Y in the Remove Scenario column for the scenario which is to be removed e To not remove a scenario from the analysis enter a value of N in the Remove Scenario column for the scenario which is not to be removed 20 DSTO GD 0560 Once the scenarios to be removed or included have been specified the user may either conduct a Cluster Analysis of the results or Integer Lin
10. OX 1500 EDINBURGH SOUTH AUSTRALIA 5111 16 DELIBERATE ANNOUNCEMENT No Limitations 17 CITATION IN OTHER DOCUMENTS No Limitations 18 DSTO RESEARCH LIBRARY THESAURUS Strategic Analysis Scenario Operations Research Application Software Java Department of Defence Australia 19 ABSTRACT This document is a user guide for the software product the Scenario Analysis Tool Suite version 1 5 The tool suite implements several scenario analysis techniques Morphological analysis Field Anomaly Relaxation analysis Battelle approach Bayesian approach as well as an extended approach of combining methods Thus the tool provides the opportunity to compare these techniques using a specific strategic question and provides computer support for the new combined technique Page classification UNCLASSIFIED
11. The minimum average compatibility rating value works by selecting those scenar ios which have an average compatibility rating of the value or higher To enter a minimum average compatibility rating value by entering a value in the minimum average compatibility rating input field After the value has been entered the cursor must be placed in the maximum number of rating 2 input field The input field accepts real decimal numbers between 1 and 5 inclusive e Specifying scenario selection filter technique the first or the second criteria can be applied or both To specify only the first criteria Ensure that the maximum number of rating 2 criteria is checked and the minimum average compatibility rating is not regardless of whether the Or or And button is selected To specify only the second criteria Ensure that the minimum average compatibility rating criteria is checked and the maximum number of rating 2 is not regardless of whether the Or or And button is selected To specify if either the first or the second criteria is met then the scenario should be included Ensure that the minimum average compatibility rating criteria and the maximum number of rating 2 is checked and select the Or button The terminology of upper bound value and lower bound value are used for the maximum number of rating 2 values and the minimum average compatibility rating value respectively in the companion report 6 Section 6 2 3 17 the mini
12. To create a new sector Enter a sector name into the New Sector field and click the Create button adjacent to the field as shown in Figure 4 This will add the newly created sector to the list of brainstorm sectors on the left hand side Additional sectors are created by repeating this step DSTO GD 0560 5 2 2 Editing an Existing Sector To edit the name of an existing sector 1 Select the sector and click the Edit button This will display the input dialog box 2 Enter anew name into the input field and click the OK button The changes will be reflected in the list 5 2 3 Attaching a Description to the Sector To record a description or details of the sector 1 Select the sector in either list This will enable input into the description input field 2 Enter a description or details into the field The text will be saved when the cursor is moved to another input field 5 2 4 Selecting a Sector to be Used in the Analysis To include a sector in the analysis 1 Select a sector from the brainstorm sector list which will highlight the sector 2 Click the Include gt button This will add the brainstorm sector to the selected list on the right hand side of the window This step can be repeated for each desired sector 5 2 5 Including all the Brainstormed Sectors in the Analysis 1 Click on any brainstorm sector This will enable both the Include gt and Include All gt gt buttons for use 2 Click the Include All gt gt bu
13. Y XS TT 3 4 4 Export Analysiq 3 4 5 BExitProgram co mos 4 Exploring the Combined Approach Tool Environment PISA d ee Trev 43 UserHelp 000000000008 pee See anaes ear ene 4 4 1 Creating a New Combined Approach Analysi 442 Opening a Morphological Analysi 4 4 3 Create a New Morphological Analysis 5 Creating a Morphological Analysi I ee A E e O E A Tr T ere DSTO GD 0560 W Q1 O1 a Oi A A B A QU o N N N d d 0 DD Oo NO oO o 0o N iii DSTO GD 0560 PT I a 5 3 o e ee ee ese ow xc Borm Um ets EU E eee eo vo vex od e Eo Be wo S Eds 5 3 1 PurposeofScreen 2o ee ee eee eee ee ee eee CPP TT TP 5 3 7 Selecting all Brainstormed Factors to be Used in the Analysis ane b4 Matrix of Pairs nn ue esr eo RR RO a ee P T 6 Using Combined Approac 61 InitialDatalnput e iv 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 DSTO GD 0560 23 24 Figures LORI o fay es 2 PERLES PEEMUAS ES 4 byes eo ee Hae eens 6 eT Tee ee eee eee 8 A a epee ey IDEM Bee d 14 Z Print out of the Matrix of Pairs Table llle 15 es 15 C 16 10 Initial Data Input Completd rrr 18 TUTTI 19 12 Computation Time for Bayesian Approach 19 pee Pee E HOP Pn 2
14. cal data corresponding to the grouping of scenarios into clusters see Figure 15 6 5 2 Viewing Cluster Image To view the cluster image that has been generated by the Statistical R package click the Display button on the right panel This action will display a separate window displaying 10 11 means that clicking the button will execute a function means that clicking the button will not make changes to the program or perform any function 21 DSTO GD 0560 22 Cluster Information E jol xi Cluster Analysis Scenario Average Compatibility Value Probability 1 1 2 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 14 17 18 19 2 3 31 4 4 2 56 8 667 5 6 E niue TO TO TO C3 LL NSS SS SS Sle AT GN TO TO FO 9 GG TO TO FO FO 3 iaa were p ennt SS SSS eT e Figure 15 Cluster Information the image A file containing this image is generated as a bi product of the analysis and can be found in the program directory 6 6 Integer Programming If the Integer Programming option see Figure 13 of the Combined Approach analysis was selected then the panel show in Figure 16 will be displayed It requires further input before the calculations can be made 6 6 1 Specifying the Number of Factors in the Scenario Set In order to find the smallest number of scenarios that cover the number of factors specified implement the following steps for the factor of interest change the value in t
15. cted sector list 2 To those sectors attach selected factors 3 Click the Next button from the Breakdown Components panel to move to the Matrix of Pairs panel 13 DSTO GD 0560 14 EB Morphological Analysis Tool 1 0 EE b nix File Morphological Analysis Help e b Matrix of Pairs The following table is produced For the analysis click the Print button to print Print Figure 6 Matrix of Pairs The matrix of pairs can be seen as in Figure 6 All contain three factors with the exception of the second last sector A which have four A labelling system which represents both the sector and factor has been adopted For example E1 is the first selected factor of the sector with the letter index of E thus each factor has both a row and column A cell marked with an X represents an incompatible comparison as they are factors of the same sector A cell marked with a dash represents a redundant comparison as filling in the bottom left triangle of the table will result in making this comparison The table cannot be edited but can be printe Filling in the table is done as part of the combined analysis in the associated tool 5 4 2 Printing the Matrix of Pairs To print a matrix of pairs 1 Navigate to the Matrix of Pairs panel which is the last panel Click the Pri
16. d mix of these plausible futures For scenario development Usefulness and Limitations Input This technique requires the existance of a matrix of pairs from a Morphological Analysis compatibility ratings of Factor pairs and marginal probability values of all Factors Output The technique generates a list of compatible scenarios with their average compatibility value and probability It then groups these scenarios into clusters to evaluate the average compatibility probability of the clusters Statistical information mean mode median maximum and minimum is also determined For each sector of each cluster Figure 3 Combined Approach Tool Welcome Screen 4 2 Navigation The Combined Approach Tool provides the same navigation functionality as the MA Tool the use of Back and Next buttons located at the bottom right corner of the screen or by selecting the desired panel from the Combined Analysis menu option located at the top of the program The tool has been split into the following panels Matrix of Pairs amp Marginal Probabilities Selected Compatible Scenarios Scenario Probabilities Cluster Analysis and Integer Linear Programming DSTO GD 0560 4 3 User Help The user may retrieve assistance in using the program by choosing Help gt User Documentation This will open the user documentation for reference whilst using the tool Or alternatively click on User Documentation via the Welcome screen shown in Figurel3 4 4 Bas
17. e pressed Please note the Matrix of Pairs will populate the table with an incompatibility of 1 where the factors belong to the same sector A will be assigned to redundant cells DSTO GD 0560 Although all these cells should not be editable the bottom left outer 1 values are These values must not be changed and most have been disabled to prevent this from happening 6 1 2 Entering a Marginal Probability for a Factor The marginal probability of a factor can be entered by double clicking the cell in the Marginal Probabilities table and entering a value When a value has been entered the enter key must be pressed The factors in the sector should sum to equal to or less than 1 A warning message will be displayed if they sum to something greater than one 6 1 3 Scenario Selection The scenarios can be filtered by using a selection criteria based on the maximum number of rating 2 values and or the minimum average compatibility rating valud allowed e Entering a maximum number of rating 2 value The maximum number of rating 2 criteria works by disallowing scenarios that have more pair wise rating 2 than this value This value can be entered by entering an integer in the Maximum number of Rating 2 input field After a value has been entered the cursor must be placed in Minimum average compatibility rating value input field to register the rating 2 value criteria e Entering a minimum average compatibility rating value
18. ear Programming In order to conduct a Cluster Analysis select the Cluster Analysis option in the Final Stage options Otherwise select the Integer Programming option After the selection has been made click the Next button to ensure that the appropriate screen is displayed 6 5 Cluster Analysis Assuming that the user has selected to conduct a cluster analysis as the final stage of the combined approach analysis the screen displayed in Figure 14 will be shown The figure shows that all the Show buttons corresponding to the number of clusters are enabled this indicates that the group of selected scenarios could be grouped into up to five clusters A Show button which is disabled indicates that the scenarios could not be grouped into the number of clusters for which it is disabled Combined Approach Tool 1 5 a z ni x File Combined Analysis Help paa Scenario Descriptions Factor Descriptions Cluster Analysis All scenarios with Y entry will be removed from the analysis Results Image Cluster Results Click the Display button to display the Cluster Image 2 Show Display 3 Show 4 Show 5 Show i Figure 14 Cluster Analysis Panel 6 5 1 Viewing Cluster Information To view the scenarios and their statistics as mentioned in the companion report 6 click the Show button adjacent to the corresponding number of clusters of interest This action will result in displaying another screen which shows statisti
19. eplacing the word component with sector and configuration with factor 5The question being explored does not need to be one specific to strategy The method allows exploration of any qualitative problem space 6It is also presumed that the user is familiar with the terminology of the Field Anomaly Relaxation DSTO GD 0560 E Morphological Analysis Tool 1 0 E nl x File Morphological Analysis Help f Getting Started r Merphological Analysis en an existing Morphological Analysis ie st 3 y i is Usefulness and Limitations Create a new Morphological Analysis Morphological analysis stimulates the imagination and enables one to scan the Field of possibilities systematically The First limitation of MA stems User Documentation From the chaice of components By leaving out a component or simply a configuration that is essential For the Future one runs the risk of leaving out one complete facet fromthe range of possibilities a range which is not restricted but evolves through time The second limitation of course stems from the sheer bulk of combinations which can rapidly submerge the user The technique requires that the user identifies and breaks down the system under analysis into descriptors and fields Output s The technique derives a matrix of Fields ready for comparative analysis Back Next Figure 2 Morphological Analysis Tool Welcome Screen 3 2 Navigation MA Tool interface as seen in FigureD
20. g Cancel will dismiss the action and return to the previous state of the program Alternatively click Create a new Morphological Analysis when on the Welcome screen This action will also prompt to save and go through the same procedure described in Section 3 4 2 3 4 2 Save Analysis An analysis that has been completed can be saved for future use and an incomplete one can be saved so that it can be completed later To save the current analysis 1 Choose File gt Save Analysis 2 At the Save prompt choose a directory and enter a file name for the analysis in the standard windows interface 3 Click Save to continue saving the analysis or click Cancel to return to the program 3 4 3 Open a Morphological Analysis A previously saved file can be loaded for reference completion or to be modified An example save file is include in the base directory of the default package and is called example ma To open this or another existing morphological analysis 1 Choose File Open Morphological Analysis 2 Select the file from the standard windows interface By convention files that are able to be loaded should have the ma extension 3 4 4 Export Analysis To export the current analysis Choose File Export Analysis A readable form of the analysis will be available in the default directory indicated by the message box The readable form can be opened in an internet browser program It can then be printed from there 3 4 5 Exi
21. he column titled N by double clicking the cell and entering a new value 6 6 2 Specifying the Probability of the Factors Occurring The probability of the factor is specified as follows for the factor of interest change the value in the column labelled P All factors in this column must to add up to a probability of equal to or less than 1 If this is not the case the user will be notified 6 6 3 Finding a Integer Programming Solution In order to find a Integer Programming solution click the Find alternative solution button located at the bottom left of the panel This action will display a separate panel DSTO GD 0560 Combined Approach Tool 1 5 ioj xi File Combined Analysis Help Scenario Descriptions Factor Descriptions r Search for a balanced mix of plausible scenarios using Integer Programming Enter values For N and P in the table below and press the ENTER key N represents the number of factor occurences in the scenario set whereas P is the probability of the Factor outcome 0 045454545454545456 0 045454545454545456 0 045454545454545456 0 045454545454545456 0 045454545454545456 0 045454545454545456 0 045454545454545456 0 045454545454545456 0 045454545454545456 0 045454545454545456 0 045454545454545456 0 045454545454545456 0 045454545454545456 N SRN SSN N SN NSN SIN NS NN SoNN Pre selected Scena
22. ic Functionality 4 4 1 Creating a New Combined Approach Analysis A Combined Approach analysis requires the existence of a morphological analysis thus a combined approach analysis cannot be created without first conducting a morphological analysis To create a morphological analysis see Section 5 or follow the steps in Section If a morphological analysis already exists steps in Section can be followed to open the analysis After which analysis can be saved as a Combined Approach analysis An example morphological analysis named example ma is provided with the tool and can be found in the base directory 4 4 2 Opening a Morphological Analysis To open a morphological analysis implement the following steps 1 Click File Open Analysis This will display a standard windows Open Dialog box 2 Locate the directory in which the morphological analysis file is located 3 Locate the analysis file with the ma extension and click on the filename This will update the File Name input field with the name of the file 4 Click the Open button 4 4 3 Create a New Morphological Analysis To create a new morphological analysis either follow the steps in Section 5 or on the Welcome screen click Create a new Morphological Analysis text on the left hand Getting Started category This will launch the MA Tool 5 Creating a Morphological Analysis 5 1 Brainstorming a Question The user may brainstorm a question and record this by entering the
23. ich are constructed using quantitative data as well as the experience and intuition of experts and stakeholders However they are unlikely to be interested in the mathematical aspects of the scenario analysis Hence the information required from them should be kept as simple as possible A new technique which combines all the above methods in light of these requirements is created and the tool provides the opportunity to compare these techniques using a specific strategic question and provides computer support for this new technique Scenario development is a function carried out by many groups within Defence Many of these groups have been supported by analysis from DSTO and other organisations and some have had associated software developed 71 13 15 This tool differs from past work by incorporating various methods within a single program The Tool Suite is a software product which has the capability to conduct the follow ing techniques Morphological Analysis and Combined approach thus including the Field Anomaly Relaxation Battelle approach Bayesian approach and some extended methods Cluster analysis Integer Programming Its aim is to remove the limitation on scenario development by the use of manual methods as described in Rhyne which states that the vast number of configurations makes removing an incompatible pair a tedious error prone task when done by hand The system will provide a means of implementing the manual steps th
24. iption Figure 5 Assigning Symbolic Name amp Selecting Factors 3 Another letter index can be specified by selecting the sector from the list and entering the new letter index into the New Letter input field and clicking the Create button adjacent to the field Note that when the screen is first displayed the current letter of the first sector is incorrectly displayed Switching sectors corrects this 5 3 3 Creating a New Factor 1 Select a sector from the sector list 2 Enter the factor name into the New Factor input field and click the Create button adjacent to the input field The newly created factor will be added to the brainstorm factor list as can be seen on the left hand side of the panel shown in Figurel5 5 3 4 Editing an Existing Factor To edit the name of an existing factor from either the brainstorm or selected list 1 Select the factor from the list This will highlight the factor selected 2 Click the Edit button and this will display a dialog box which will prompt you to enter a New Factor name 11 DSTO GD 0560 12 3 Enter a new name for the factor and click the OK button This will change the name of the factor 5 3 5 Selecting a Factor to be Used in the Analysis In order for a factor to be used in the analysis it must be moved from the brainstorm factor list to the selected factor list for the selected sector A factor can be moved to the selected factor list by 1 Selecting a factor fr
25. ist and return it to the brainstorm factor list follow the steps below 1 Click on the factor to remove in the selected factor list This will highlight the factor and enable the Remove button 2 Click on the Remove button DSTO GD 0560 5 3 9 Removing all Selected Factors from the Analysis To remove all the selected factors from the selected factor list follow the steps below 1 Click on any factor in the selected list This will enabled the use of the lt lt Remove All button 2 Click the lt lt Remove All button This will remove all the selected factors from the selected list and add them to the brainstorm factor list so they may be added again if they are required The tool allows the keeping a record of the factors that are not to be used in further analysis 5 3 10 Removing an Existing Factor A factor may be in either the brainstorm list or the selected list to be removed It can be removed by 1 Selecting the factor to be removed by clicking on it from the required list 2 Click the Remove button adjacent to the Create button This action will result in the complete removal of the factor from both lists of factors 5 4 Matrix of Pairs 5 4 1 Viewing the Matrix of Pairs A matrix may be viewed at any point The matrix will display only those selected factors and sectors In order to do this follow the following steps 1 Create sectors to be included in the analysis by creating a sector and moving it to the sele
26. logy Organisation Australia Sun Microsystems amp CollabNet 2008 NetBeans IDE 6 0 http www netbeans org Tri N Boswell S amp Dortmans P 2004 Developing Possible Future Contexts using the Field Anomaly Relaxation Process Technical Report Series DSTO TN 0604 Defence Science and Technology Organisation Australia von Reibnitz U 1985 Scenario Techniques McGraw Hill New York USA Zwicky F 1967 Discovery Invention Research through the Morphological Approach Macmillan New York USA Page classification UNCLASSIFIED DEFENCE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ORGANISATION 1 CAVEAT PRIVACY MARKING DOCUMENT CONTROL DATA 2 TITLE 3 SECURITY CLASSIFICATION The Scenario Analysis Tool Suite A User s Document U Guide Title U Abstract U 4 AUTHORS 5 CORPORATE AUTHOR Cigdem Dilek Defence Science and Technology Organisation Fairbairn Business Park Department of Defence Canberra ACT 2600 6a DSTO NUMBER 6b AR NUMBER 6c TYPE OF REPORT 7 DOCUMENT DATE 8 FILE NUMBER 9 TASK NUMBER 10 SPONSOR 11 No OF PAGES 12 No OF REFS 2008 1041544 1 07 064 Strategic Policy 24 17 13 URL OF ELECTRONIC VERSION 14 RELEASE AUTHORITY http www dsto defence gov au corporate Chief Joint Operations Division reports DSTO GD 0560 pdf 15 SECONDARY RELEASE STATEMENT OF THIS DOCUMENT Approved For Public Release OVERSEAS ENQUIRIES OUTSIDE STATED LIMITATIONS SHOULD BE REFERRED THROUGH DOCUMENT EXCHANGE PO B
27. mum average compatibility rating criteria and the maximum number of rating 2 To specify that a scenario must meet the first and the second criteria Ensure that is checked and select the And button DSTO GD 0560 fa fat laz Jas faa fer dez les 0704 ch Tool 1 M EX Combined Approa Figure 10 Initial Data Input Complete 18 DSTO GD 0560 6 2 Selecting Compatible Scenarios Using Battelle Approach Once the initial input data has been entered as in Figure 10 the Next button can be clicked to display the results of using the Battelle Approach see Figure 11 EX Combined Approach Tool 1 5 s iri x File Combined Analysis Help Scenario Descriptions Factor Descriptions Selected Compatible Scenarios The result of the selection process is shown in the table below SemroNo Scenario Number oF Rating2 1 P1E1S2T1H1A2C1 6 3 286 2 P1E1S2TIH1A2C2 2 3 381 3 P1E152T1H2A2C1 4 3 524 M P1E1S2TIH2A2C2 1 3 524 5 P2E251T2H1A1C2 0 3 667 6 P2E251T2H1A1C3 1 3 81 7 P2E251T2H1A2C1 4 3 286 8 P2E251T2H1A2C2 2 3 238 o P2E251T2H1A3C2 2 3 238 10 P2E2S2T1H1A2C1 4 3 333 11 P2E2S2TIH1A2C2 2 3 286 12 P2E2S2T1H2A2C1 M 3 333 13 P2E2S2TIH2A2C2 3 3 19 14 P2E2S2T2H1A2C2 3 3 095 15 P2E2S2T2H2A2C1 3 3 333 16 PZE252T2H2A2C2 3 3 095 17 P3E151T2H1A1C2 1 3 524 18 P3E151T2H1A1C3 1 3 714 19 P3E151T2H
28. nstall the Scenario Analysis Tool Suitd follow the steps below 1 Download a zip fld ScenarioAnalysisToolSuite v1 5 zip 2 Unzip it to get the executable file ScenarioAnalysisToolSuite v1 5 exe 3 Double click the executable file to start the installation process The screen shown in Figurel l is the screen which the user will be prompted with YE Scenario Analysis Tool Suite 1 5 Excelsior Installer Welcome to Excelsior Installer for Scenatio Analysis Tool Suite 1 5 Te Excelsior Installer will guide you through installation of the software on your computer To proceed click Next Figure 1 Installation of the Scenario Analysis Tool Suite l This documentation refers to the installation of the version 1 5 of Scenario Analysis Tool Suite released on the 20 03 2008 The exact location of the file on the DSTO Community Portal can be obtained by contacting M T Nguyen minh tuan nguyen dsto defence gov au DSTO GD 0560 4 Clicking the Next gt button and following the instructions detailed in the panels will install the software It will then be available from the Start Menu in the directory which has been specified It should be noted that the two external tools the mathematical programming solver GLPK 5 and the Statistical Package R 4 have been packaged into the above installation program 2 2 Installation of Java Runtime Environment JRE JRE 1 6 is used for running the Tool Suite thus it is recommended
29. nt button located at the top right hand corner of the panel 3 This will prompt you with a standard Print dialog box of Windows origin and select the required printer settings and click the Print button An example of a printout version can be seen in Figure 7 which is basically just the table seen in the Matrix of Pairs panel see Figurel6 N 8It is assumed that the decision makers will require a copy of the matrix to go away and fill in compatibilities and incompatibilities which they think apply to the problem space DSTO GD 0560 Q e SI E x lt 8 x x x zT HB Sr x x T N x lt x lt x lt S lt gt gt lt gt lt X xX gt lt gt X lt lt gt lt gt lt gt lt gt lt gt lt gt lt gt lt Figure 7 Print out of the Matrix of Pairs Table P E S T H A C Political Economic Social Cohesion Implications of Health and Habitat Type of Operation ADF Governance Growth S amp T required by ADF Concurrent Obligations P1 E1 S1 T H1 A1 C1 Political Developing Tolerance Conflict and Improving Sustainable Peacekeeping Peace Minor stability in between groups _ uprising between enforcement ADF role commitment to most regions group regional Operations P2 E2 S2 T2 H2 A2 C2 Unstable Declining Factionalisation Continuing Degrada
30. om the Brainstorm Factor list so it is highlighted 2 Click the Include button to remove the factor from the brainstorm factor list and add it to the selected factor list on the right hand side 5 3 6 Attaching a Description to the Factor A description or note can be attached to the factor to record the ideas which were discussed and present in the brainstorming session This can be done by 1 Selecting a factor by clicking on it whether it is in the brainstorm factor list or the selected factor list The selected factor will become highlighted and enabled entry into the input field labelled as Description 2 Enter a description into this field 3 Selecting another factor or placing the cursor into another input field such as the New Factor field will automatically save the description After which point the description of a factor may be viewed or edited by selecting that factor 5 3 7 Selecting all Brainstormed Factors to be Used in the Analysis If all the factors in the brainstorm list need to be added to the selected list follow the steps 1 Select any factor in the brainstorm list so that the Include All button can become active 2 Once the Include All gt gt button is active click on the button This will then remove all brainstorm factors from the Brainstorm Factor list and add it to the selected factor list 5 3 8 Removing a Selected Factor from the Analysis To remove a single factor from the selected factor l
31. reen An example is shown in Figure 5 5 3 2 Specifying a Letter Index for the Selected Sectors A letter index for each sector is assigned initially by default and displayed in the Current Letter box This may be changed by entering a New Letter These letters will use as a symbolic name for the analysis 1 If in the Brainstorm Question step click the Next button to move to the Breakdown Components step or wait until you naturally progress to this stage 2 You must select a sector from the drop down Select Sector box Selecting the first sector Political Governance from the list Figure 5 shows that the letter index assigned by default is P 7By default the sector is assigned a letter index of the first letter of the sector name If however another sector of the same first letter already exists in either the brainstorm or selected list then it is given a letter index of the same letter occurring multiple times 10 DSTO GD 0560 BB Morphological Analysis Tool 1 0 1 E ni xi File Morphological Analysis Help e e e Sector Select Sector Political Governance v New Letter Create Current Letter F Brainstorm Factor New Factor Collapse or change in major players Create Edit Select a factor to include in analysis Unstable political environment Include gt List of brainstormed sectors R Include All gt gt Ss Remoye Al Political stability in most regions Descr
32. rios e g 2 7 11 14 24 32 Figure 16 Integer Programming Panel e Ifa feasible solution can be found the scenario set and the values for N and P will be shown in a table e If however there is no feasible solution there will be no output displayed in the panel and the user will be prompted to re enter input data in Figure 16 7 Summary This documment has described in detail how to use the Morphological Analysis Tool and the Combined Approach Tool that forms the Scenario Analysis Tool Suite As with any piece of software there may be bugs remaining in the code To date the program has not undergone extensive verification and validation due to a lack of available resources in particular the end of the primary programmer s contract at DSTO Together with this user manual and the companion report on the scenario analysis methods this tool provides an excellent resource for the conduct of strategic analysis However by itself the tool will not perform this analysis Trained staff should still be used to interpret the inputs and the results of the model 23 DSTO GD 0560 24 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 References Coyle R G amp McGlone G R 1995 Projecting Scenarios for South east Asia and the South west Pacific Futures 27 1 65 79 Coyle R G Crawshay R amp Sutton L 1994 Futures Assessment by Field Anomaly Relaxation Futures 26 1 25 43
33. rough the use of software and provide capture by means of saving and allowing the user to go back of the process so that it may be exported for scenario composition The capture must be whole in the sense that the system may be exported at any stage and continued manually The free open source integrated development environment IDE NetBeans 14 was used in the creation of Graphical User Interface GUI for the tool suite External mathematical programming solver GLPK 5 and Statistical Package R 4 are the main engines for solving mathematical models and analysing results DSTO GD 0560 The tool was designed for use by people who have a knowledge of the methodologies being used It is expected that they are familiar with the accompanying report 6 It is not the intention to release this software into the Public Domain but to provide it with support to DSTO colleagues or Defence staff who might need it The documentation also provides help on using the program with less potential trouble by indicating which actions must be followed by must Implementing these actions will ensure that the program will function as expected The tool was developed by Cigdem Dilek as part of her Industry Based Learning year at DSTO In her absence the primary points of contact for the work are Minh Tuan Nguyen and Justin Beck both of Joint Operations Division 2 Getting Started 2 1 Installation of the Scenario Analysis Tool Suite To i
34. t Program To exit the program Choose File gt Exit A prompt to save the current analysis will appear and the same procedure described in Section can be followed to guide through this process DSTO GD 0560 4 Exploring the Combined Approach Tool Environment This section of the document aims to guide the user through the Combined Approach Tool It supports the importation of a morphological analysis created with the MA Tool and allows the user to step through the Battelle Bayesian Cluster Analysis and Integer Linear Programming techniques The tool can be stopped and exported at any stage of the Combined Approach if only a portion of the techniques were of interest 41 Running Combined Approach Tool To run the Combined Approach Tool 1 From the Start menu navigate to the directory in which the Scenario Analysis Tool Suite is installed 2 Click the Combined Approach Tool to run it This action will display the screen shown in Figure 3 EX Combined Approach Tool 1 5 E E ni x File Combined Analysis Help Scenario Descriptions Factor Descriptions Getting Started Combined Approach Open an existing Morphological Analysis Create a new Morphological Analysis User Documentation The Combined Approach offers a promisingly aspect of the scenario analysis as starting with relatively simple information demanded from Decision Makers and can determine possible main scenarios and their probabilities as well as a balance
35. tion Counter Major political between groups comparable Insurgency Counter commitment to environment advancement of Terrorism regional technology Operations P3 E3 3 T3 H3 A3 C3 Collapse or Collapse Conflict and Lagging Collapse meltdown Conventional warfare Commitment to change in uprising between advancement of Operations major players group technology further afield A4 Humanitarian assistance Figure 8 Summary of Sectors Factors The sectors and factors with their description can also be printed by choosing File gt Ex port Analysis in the menu Figurel8lis the summary table of sectors factors extracted from the Export Analysis printout 15 DSTO GD 0560 16 6 Using Combined Approach When a morphological analysis is loaded into the combined approach tool the informa tion it contains is displayed as in Figure 9 This section of the report guides the user through the functionality of the combined approach tool Combined Approach Tool 1 5 E E 10 B x File Combined Analysis Help pr Scenario Descriptions Factor Descriptions Matrix of Pairs Matrix of Pairs Table Legend Enter the compatibility rating for matrix pairs in the table below After each entry press the ENTER key The compatibility rating range is From 1 to 5 where 1 is incompatible inbetween 2 3 and 4 represents increasing compatibility and 5 is very compatible si s2 ss m 12 fr j E T
36. tton This will include all the sectors as selected sectors that will be used for further analysis 5 2 6 Removing a Selected Sector from the Analysis To remove a sector from the analysis 1 Click on a sector in the selected list 2 Click the Remove button This will result in the sector being removed from the selected list and added to the brainstorm list This step can be repeated to remove the desired sectors from the analysis DSTO GD 0560 5 2 7 Removing all Selected Sectors from the Analysis To remove all the sectors from the analysis back to the brainstorm list 1 Click on a sector in the selected sector This will enable the Remove and Remove All button 2 Click the Remove All button to remove all the sectors from the selected list to the brainstorm list 5 2 8 Removing an Existing Sector Permanently To remove a sector 1 Click on a sector in either the brainstorm list or the selected list This will highlight the chosen sector 2 Click the Remove button This action will result in the removal of the sector 5 3 Factors Many of the functions on the factors screen are identical to those on the sectors screen This should aid the user to quickly become familiar with the tool 5 3 1 Purpose of Screen This screen allows the creation of factors for each sector The factors describe possible states of the sector and should be entered in a sequential order The screen itself is similar to the sectors sc
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