Home

Hurrevac2010 User`s Manual

Contents

1. 20 Hourly Wind Ratiges 21 72 AF Wind SWath deer 22 Hourly ERROR E pSe th Ih EH RR HORA 23 Eli MM 24 Watches Waris MO ial ca t NER RUD 25 Wind Probabilities aceto toile debe oed oat ete obese 26 Actual Track Ahead eed tete etie cte tdeo ee eee eee XR ee deerat eei 27 Alternate etae etre idee etse lee dese tse ete 28 Advisory Ovetlays sau ARRIERE RUNDE a a ERR AUR NOR TAL UR EGRE 29 Briefing Display ied dedi eti EHI M CE GE 30 AntnoOtatlOD iut Rte ee e Eee 31 NER a EE EEEa 31 Table of Contents Storm Info BOX qum 32 Advisory ausa aec ERU naa onan aan 34 VETosupeNe nrojt ii o eo 35 Wind Tags oio oe e cpu isa RD IRURE BR QUUD SHORE MM NR QNA QU DRIN QR 36 REL cy 37 Disel imetS essione 38 NaI OS TA 39 TE
2. M M P 78 EXIDOUU LINDO MU eS 81 Exercise Track Wizard ede ertet tenete set sect etie Donee dert 83 5 e E M M 85 Setup intet ue e t iere und bd beu RAM Pee d o LINER 85 dila e 93 Monitoring RIDBDOLD pr da A tud ta abd e NEU o RE ONE ON dide 95 Map Toolb at iae tette 96 Decision Time Alert uci tiit eee ertet i oreste 97 EOR m DUS 1e h DN 99 Sp cial e 102 Risk Profiles usc e eee aero e e deed 103 Florida Risk Profile rtr ttti lese dte 108 RISK 25956 e RR AU De Pd UR 120 N w fen diente 132 Facilities aieo ORE HERR IG DAR ROB RAD HEU ERR AA RUN IRA PEN BR AQUA RUEDA TUAE 144 Facility Timing Details 147 Evacuation Timing for a Single 555 dna etd Reina DAE 153 D GR Pani und RU 155 Welcome to HURREVAC HURREVAC short for Hurricane Evacuation is a storm tracking and decision assistan
3. S amp M 4PM Mon Fri 4PM 11PM or Sat Sun EB nis ED ES Ba Special Tools Hurricane Risk Profile 5tate for Florida Tropical Cyclone IDA Advisory 21 Date Time SUN 11 08 09 22 EST D Other Considerations Red Greater than 6 inches Indicator Level Critical of Concem J me pra 1 Greatest rainfall forecasted for a Florida county in the next 72 hours Data not available for advisory gt 24 hours old E What is the maximum clearance time for a Florida 2 3 4 Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Red county within the 120 hour forecast error cone Hillsborough 33 5 hrs for Cat 3 Are there any special events or holiday weekend considerations in evacuation planning Yellow Green Yellow Green after Oct20 high occupancy S S W FL What is the inland extent of hurricane force winds based on MEOWs for adjusted forecast intensity and forward speed Extend to Inland Counties Red Yellow Green average forecast error cone 3 W Apala NCent NE Withla ECent TPABay TreaCst Does the state qualify for pre landfall declaration Likely 13 Counties with hurricane warning Red Yellow Green Which Florida RPC Regions are in the 72 hour 3to 6 inches Less than 3 inches Greater than 24 hours Between 12 and 24 hours Less than 12 hours around July 4 Labor Day OR
4. 55 2 N Fri 11 75mph SSCat 1 C Gua Thu 11 PM 50 SSCat 0 _ Sat 11 PM SSCat 5 The storm s past track appears as solid blue line with colored squares representing the locations of all previous old advisories These are color coded according to the maximum wind speeds observed atthe time of each advisory The colors indicate e Blue tropical storm force winds of at least 34kt or 39mph e Yellow winds of at least 5Okt or 58mph and e Red hurricane force winds of at least 64kts or 74mph Wind ranges illustrate the initial position and size of the storm The Error Swath illustrates the area in which the center of the storm is most likely to track Forecast positions at 12 24 36 48 and 72 hours 11 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual are indicated by large white filled squares Extended forecast positions 96 and 120 hours are indicated by large gray filled squares Using HURREVAC Analyzing Distant Threats When tracking a still distant hurricane HURREVAC enables you to answer basic questions about the threat such as e Where is the hurricane currently located and how big is it e Where is the hurricane expected to make landfall and at what intensity e What is the likelihood that the hurricane will impact my location and how soon could that happen Storm status is indicated by the Storm Info Box that initially appears as a white banner across the top of the tracking map
5. HTTP Proxy Setting if needed Returns or sets a value that specifies a proxy host for HTTP communications with servers Can be either a host name proxy youragency com dot address nnn nnn nnn nnn optionally followed by a colon and remote port When used the specified proxy server transparently forwards requests and returns responses The remote port for the proxy server can be specified after the host name separated by a colon When empty the operating system determines Proxy support by reading the registry HTTP Proxy Username if required Set this property if HTTP requests are routed through a proxy server AND the proxy server requires user authentication HTTP Proxy Password if required Set this property if HTTP requests are routed through a proxy server AND the proxy server requires user authentication HTTPS Secure Downloads if needed Select this option for HTTPS rather than HTTP data transfer only if your system is downloading outdated forecast data Switching to HTTPS will ensure that your network returns new files with each download rather than ones from a stale local cache HTTP Proxy Settings many be left blank under normal situations However if the program gives you a message about not being able to connect to the internet site then try to access http data hurrevac com using your web browser If you are able to connect in the web browser but not in Hur
6. J 1 or 120 hour average forecast error Cone Yellow Within 36 hours In 25 hr Error Ellipse Green gt 96 hrs or not in Error Cone Are NHC Watch or Warnings issued for Florida Red Hurricane Warning Hurricane Warning Yellow TS Warning or Hurricane Watch Green TS Watch or None Highest NHC 64kt wind probability for the Florida Red Greater Than 18 3 coastline Yellow 11 to 18 18 45 for 50 86 for 34kt PENSACOLA Green Less Than 11 FL 4 Increase or decrease of maximum probability since Red Increased in Percent last advisory Yellow Remained Same Percent Increased 14 to 18 Green Decreased in Percent What is the forecast peak wind in Florida based Red Hurricane Force winds or the 72 hour forecast track greater 75 mph in Santa Rosa Yellow Between 58 mph and 74 mph Green Less than 58 mph Compared to the previous 3 advisories how is the Consistently moving closer to current forecast track closest point of Florida over at least 3 approach moving relative to Florida advisories consistently On m gt 0 gt 0 gt 0 close lt 50nm Yellow Inconsistent trend moving closer to Florida last advisory Green Consistently moving away from county over last 3 advisories 109 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Hurricane Risk Profile Local for Santa Rosa County FL Tropical Cyclone IDA A Risk Area Definition Advisory 21 Date Time SUN 11 08 09 22 EST
7. Original Track This option restores the original official advisory and erases the alternate track You must use this option or change advisories or storm file to be able to do computations using the official advisory track 28 Storm Features Advisory Overlays Advisory overlays are useful for illustrating forecast track shifts from one advisory to the next Under the STORM FEATURES menu you have the option of turning on either 3 or 6 of the most recent advisories Intermediate A and B advisories are not included in this display since they maintain the same track as the full advisory before them KATRINA OE 16 August 27 2005 5 Sat CurrentLocation 24 4 84 4 Vv 115 mph Cat 3 7 mph ad i SQessesOeeen 44 29 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Briefing Display Briefing Display is a simplified view of a storm s forecast to be used for briefings where you need to communicate the essential facts in an easy to understand format This display emphasizes the current location of the storm and its potential track area error swath Advisory Labels and watches warnings may be toggled on and off in this display but many of the other STORM FEATURES are not available 7 Hurricane Katrina 16 August 27 2005 5 AM EDT Saturday j 2 SSCat 4 Z3 CurrentLocation 24 4 N 84 4 W 5 Sustained Wind 115 mph Cat 3 Current Movement 7 mph Sun 2 PM SSC
8. Under most conditions you will not need to touch this setting because the time zone setting in HURREVAC matches your computer clock This option is here in case you are preparing a map or report for a distant location and want to use the local time zone with out changing your computer s setting Hurrevac Setup Form State Plug Ins Connection Settings Download Schedule Local Defaults Timeline Time Zone By default the Time Zone is taken automatically from your system timezone setting However you can opt to use another Time Zone from the list below Current Time Zone used in Hurrevac is Your System Time Zone gt EASTERN STANDARD TIME Taken from List below gt CENTRAL US Optional Time Zones BERMUDA HAWAII ATLANTIC MIDWAY ISLAND EASTERN US MARSHALL ISLANDS CENTRAL US GUAM MOUNTAIN US AMERICAN SAMOA PACIFIC US CUSTOM TIME ZONE cus 3 Letter Abbreviatior 92 Other Forms Printing Hurrevac2010 s Print Options are accessed though a button on the Monitoring Ribbon g a HURREVAC s Print Options are used both for printing to a printer and for exporting maps and data Print to File Print Options Print What Current Report Extent Storm Map Print Output To The PRINTER To a Graphics File Page Print Setup Page Print Setup Print Setup Cancel cel Print Preview Preview
9. DXX 256 Click on graphto show values in boxes below for a specific hour 4 19E GFE ASE 13E ASE 09 21 09 21 09 22 09 22 09 22 09 22 08 23 09 23 09 23 09 23 08 24 09 24 Observed Tide a s a Predicted Tide Time of Closest Approach of Storm if within Time Pool Selected Time Guidance TideTable Residual Scale Time Frame O us 17 qs SLOSH Options NORMAL displays SLOSH REX surge forecast if available EXERCISE displays hypothetical MEO W MOM values EXERCISE Options MOMs Ca3MOM MEOW or MOM Exercise mode allows the user to choose for exercise purposes a Maximum Envelope Of Water MEOW storm surge amount or a Maximum of Maximums MOM storm surge amount from the drop down lists shown for this particular tide gage The MEOWs refer to SLOSH surges grouped into categories of Saffir Simpson scale 1 to 5 Direction of movement and Speed of Movement The MOMs refer to the maximum surge amounts for each SS Category regardless of Direction or Speed 100 Other Forms Once a MOM or MEOW is selected a set of bands are drawn on the right hand side of the graph indicating the storm tide amount that could be expected plus or minus 2096 given the tide table height for that hour and the MEOW or MOM surge height By clicking on the graph at a specific hour a red circle is drawn at the projected hypothetical storm tide heig
10. Browsers River Gage The River Gage Browser is accessed from the BROWSER heading of Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox This browser can also be launched by clicking on a specific river gage point on the map River gages are an available data layer on the Current data tab under the heading Rivers HURREVAC monitors roughly 1000 river gages in hurricane prone states from Texas to Maine The program s River Gage display is part of a suite of inland flood tools that also include the National River Flood Outlook and the HPC 3 day Rainfall Forecast Refer to the Other Forecast Data topic for more information on these NOAA s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service AHPS is the source of this river gage data The HURREVAC system data hurrevac com receives updated gage observations and forecasts as often as every hour from AHPS vast network Each time you turn on the River Gage layer under the Rivers heading of the Current data tab Hurrevac2010 downloads the latest available information from data hurrevac com To refresh the gage display after a number of hours of viewing simply un check and then recheck the River Gage layer River Gages Map Display HURREVAC 2010 Version 1 1 10 Hurricane Decision Support for Emergency Management ase Sheiaes Esta srebrem iie 1915 tn Current Arc Advisory Outlook 9 Atlantic East Pac Cent Pac West Pac amp 10 South Pac amp 10 oO R
11. Red Yellow Inland extent of hurricane force winds based on 1 MEOWs for forecast intensity and forward speed see References for MEOW Coastal localities only Special Events or Holiday Weekend 2 Considerations 1 week of LaborDay Green Several Inland Localities few Inland Localities affected Coastal Localities only Hurricane occurring within 1 week of July 4 or Labor Day Weekend Hurricane occurring after July 4 week and before Labor Day Weekend or local special event No holiday or special event 127 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Hurricane Risk Profile Local for Ya Beach County Tropical Cyclone Advisory t 34 Date Time FRI 08 05 08 05 EDT D Other Considerations Indicator Level AY Critical Of Concem J me J 8 Y 8 If your county is within the 72 hr average error Red Hurricane Force 54 Bl cone what is the peak wind in your county based knots 74mph or greater on MEO ws for mas adjusted forecast intensity Yellow 50 knots to 63 knots 58 to and forward speed see References for MEOW 73mph 50 Kt b8mph Green less than 50 knots b8mph Special Events or Holiday Weekend Hurricane occurring within 1 E RI Considerations week of July 4 or Labor Day 1 week of LaborDay Weekend Hurricane occurring after July 4 week and before Labor Day Weekend or local special event No holiday or special event Which Virginia Regions are in the 72 hr Average Red Ti
12. Auto Status Check is Current Archives Advisory d Outlook Atlantic pmi RICK 15 October 18 2009 11 PM EDT Sun CurrentLocation 17 0 110 3 145 mph Cat 4 13 mph East Pac 1 Cent Pac 1 _ Three c 02 West Pac amp 10 1 Lupit 21 South Pac amp 10 Rain IP Rivers Tide Gages sll Se 1 E m lt alc le lo Ik REPORTS BROWSERS UTILITIES At startup Hurrevac2010 immediately checks the web to see if there are any active storms and downloads them for presentation on the tracking map As long as the program is left in auto download mode the default download schedule you will receive notice of new forecast advisories Hurrevac2010 s Current Data Tab at top left of the program interface organizes activity by the forecast basins Numbers appear after the name of any basin containing one or more active storms Clicking the symbol next to an active basin will expand the listing to include the active storm 10 Using HURREVAC name s and latest advisory number s To see a preview of all storm activity in a basin simply click on the basin name in the Current Data Tab Storms in this preview mode are indicated with small red circles marking the location of the storm at the time of the most recent advisory and white cones marking the potent
13. Criteria Red Within 48 hours Yellow Within 72 hours Green gt 72 hours or not in error cone Red Hurricane Warning Yellow TS Warning or Hurricane Watch Green TS Watch or none Red Greater than 18 Yellow 11 to 18 Green Less than 11 Red Increased in percent Yellow Remained same percent Green Decreased in percent Red 120 160 degs 4 to 5 o clock Yellow 161 199 degs 5 to o clock Green All other approaches Red Hurricane force gt 74 mph Yellow Between 58 and 74 mph Green Less than 58 mph 134 Is there a chance that the storm might pass directly over this area Error cones and hourly ellipses encompass the area in which the storm is most likely to track Does the National Weather Service consider the threat significant enough for watches and or warnings Watches and warnings are issued along the coastline when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours D What are the odds of this area experiencing hurricane force winds Wind probabilities at point locations along the coast quantify the potential for hurricane winds within a 5 day period Are the odds of hurricane force winds increasing Differences in wind probabilities from one advisory to the next indicate increasing or decreasing risk Probabilities from distant storms are typically low due to the high degree of uncertainty and increase as the storm gets closer and continues to threaten D Coul
14. Indicator Level Critical Of Concem Die y Is this county within the NHC 120 hour average 1 forecast error cone 25 hours Are NHC Watches or Warnings in effect for your 2 county OR if inland county nearby coast Hurricane Warning What is the NHC 64kt wind probability nearest 3 your county 17 for 43 for 84 for Have the wind probabilities nearest vour county increased or decreased since the last advisory Increased 14 to 17 Forecast peak wind in your county based on the 72 hour forecast track 75 mph Compared to the previous 3 advisories how is the current forecast track Closest Point of Approach moving relative to your county s center 36n m gt 26 gt 22 gt 19 110 Red Within 48 hours Yellow Within 96 hours Green gt 96 hrs or not in error cone Red Hurricane Warning Yellow TS Warning or Hurricane Watch Green TS Watch or None Red Greater than 18 Yellow 11 to 18 Green Less than 11 Red Increased in percent Yellow Remained same percent FUN U Green Decreased in percent or lt 3 Red Greater than 110 mph E Yelow Between 74 mph and 110 mph Green Less than 74 mph Red Consistently moving toward county over at least 3 advisories DR consistently close 50nm Yellow No Consistent trend Greens Consistently moving away from county over last 3 advisories DR consistently Far gt 300nm
15. Last updated 04 2011 Facilities Timing refers to a special set of HURREVAC functions developed specifically to accommodate Hurricane Evacuation Study HES clearance times for bridges tunnels and other transportation facilities in the New York City metropolitan area The facilities functions of Hurrevac2010 are only active if the New York HES data has been installed within the State Plug Ins Setup HURREVAC s report capabilities for facilities are similar to those for counties but with some extra features to handle the more complicated evacuation closure scenarios required by facilities The entries that are part of this module were determined by the transportation agency to be the most critical facilities or locations within their transportation network that are vulnerable to a hurricane Some entries represent multiple facilities or locations Discrete Action Periods Instead of a single evacuation clearance time as in the case of counties facilities have 3 time periods for actions that need to be taken before arrival of the hazards Individual times are dependent on a variety of factors including agency ownership and type of facility They are 1 Mobilization Period Amount of time needed to organize internal decision making and stage equipment vehicles and personnel Most agencies have designated only a brief mobilization time of 1 to 2 hours expecting this time to be executed quickly or even concurrently with other emergency tim
16. Note The NHC does not include wind ranges information in the extended forecast from 72 to 120 hours Therefore the reporting period for this tool is only from hour 0 the hour the NHC forecast is issued to hour 72 f Only standard reports are listed under the REPORTS heading of Hurrevac2010 s toolbox To Laccess Facility Timing Details you must use the tab to add a new report from the list below Analysis Reports Selection Available Analysis Reports Facility Timing Details Closest Approach Of Storm Center Meaning Of Report Error Swath Affected List 3 Evacuation Timing All Areas E zs pps on inthe New York City area Assumes a direct hit for the AEA purposes of timing a decision Flood Outlook For All Affected amp reas Rainfall For All Affected Areas Cautionary Notes Mas s Ue NC If your area is IN the Error Cone you should seriously consider action at the Decision Times indicated Evacuation timeline information for Facilities for which evacuation data file plug ins are available for example Storm Statistics Graph Report Location 147 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Advisory Report 0 i Report 0 Report for Hurricane Earl Q Based on Advisory 30 Issued 09 01 10 5PM EDT OLD Advisory Facility Timing Details 132 Items Location Mobilize hrs hrs Closure hrs Hazards hrs Fire Island F
17. amp Cr 12345 612345 123456 D og ay 4 Be 1 T 4 8 13 3 T 7 103 2 eb e OB B 6 37274 19 10 3 8 4 112 4 7 4712 2 33 15 gt 17224 28162 9 o Q Q 9 LE 2E 02080222228 130 Special Tools Risk Profile Summary Local for Va Beach County Tropical Cyclone Advisory 34 Date Time FRI 09 05 08 05 EDT Indicator Level A Critical of Concem RiskAreaDefinton Storm Intensity and Evacuation Characl OtherConsR Y G Cr Oc 1723745 2 354 8 102 3 54 ee A D iB DE E qosB 12 3 10 56 3 3 6 6 7 4 2 T 4 87 2 4 o o o o Q Q o JEEE LE 2E 0E 2080 22 21 28 22 7 208 000 2 2 LL E 131 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual New York Risk Profile Last updated 04 2011 This series of images shows an example of the Risk Profile for New York from Hurricane Earl Advisory 30 2010 New York specific criteria and special considerations are discussed EARL 30 September 1 2010 5 PM EDT Wed CurrentLocation 26 3 N 73 3 VV 130 mph Cat 4 17 mph Thu 2 PM 125mph SSCat 3movg 19mp h Thu 2 130mph SSCat 4movg Trop Storm Warning Trop Storm Watch Hurricane Warning Hurricane Watch New York s Risk Profile assigns the indicator icons to specific criteria when their conditions reach red or yellow status Criteria designated as Critical will h
18. 40 Standard Available Reports ttd anid ded eee dead 40 Special ei fnere e cel ete eiecti dee leet rne eee eon 40 Storr Statistics RE POM seve uoce eee e RU e CIR PHARA AAEE Due 41 Error Eli nBiislofej n A 43 Wind D ay EENE e AEEA E ea E E Aaa Gea r 45 Wind Timing Report eun ien 48 Evacuation TIMING REPOT teneti eaaa e i ais 50 Closest Approach Report tec AN R 53 Rainfall eU 54 River Flood Outlook que 57 EI EENES E 59 Available ofrece 59 Evacuation Clearance 60 Coordinates Measurements RR 61 BIecXu rs e a naaa Net 62 EREN e EE E E EE E EEE E EARE EE E E 63 Tide IR RR PA QR pe ona pA pt uS 66 68 Available Utilities I 68 Storm ata ENY setate oerte aa aa i aia A A 69 Historical Scah edt etre dedisset erede OE EES 72 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Map 75 EVACUATION OPTIONS a ni n tec ec enge teh een e d tede e bee ei te thee ede a 76 DECISION
19. 96 and 120 hour forecasted positions for the current advisory Points are attributed with a date time field and a maximum wind speed field 2 Apasttrack as points and lines Separate files are created for the two shape types and are differentiated by p and l tacked on to the end of the filenames Nodes in the line file and points in the points file represent the initial positions of each advisory for the past track Points are attributed with a date time field and a maximum wind speed field 3 The wind ranges from any forecast hour 0 72 as polygons Up to three rings with values of 39 58 and 74 mph may be output 4 Wind swath through hour 72 of current advisory as polygons Up to three polygons with values of 39 58 and 74 mph may be output 5 Error swath or error swath plus winds as polygons Up to three polygons with a single attribute field indicating 72 hour average error 72 extended forecast average error 120 and average error plus winds 0 6 Error ellipse with or without winds from any forecast hour 0 120 as polygons One polygon attribute value of 72 or 120 for the error ellipse and a larger wind ellipse attribute value of 0 81 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual 7 MEOW wind for specified region and storm conditions as polygons Polygons are attributed with 39 58 74 92 109 and 127 mph to indicate the maximum wind possible for the region 8 HPC rainfall isopleths for specified day 1 3 as polygons Polygo
20. Anywhere C Color lines to show intensity Show storm name tags DR Scan by Storm Name ONLY Cancel Exit Display Tracks Storms must be selected from the database using the Historical Track Scan Setup form Query options include Target Area Dimensions Limits search to those storm tracks passing through a geographic region that you specify Select a width and height in nautical miles or degrees then click on the main map to position a box of the desired dimensions If you do not wish to limit your search geographically then check the All Areas box 72 Utilities Range of Years Limits search to range of years specified If you do not wish to limit your search to a range of years then check the All Years box Range of Months Limits search to the range of months specified If you do not wish to limit your search to certain months then check the Months box Max SS Category Reached by Storm Limits search to specific storm category You may further refine this search to accept only storms that reach a desired strength within the geographical region In Target Area you have specified rather than Anywhere along their complete tracks Scan by Storm Name ONLY Entering a name here will cause all other search criteria to be ignored Press the Execute Scan button once you have finished defining scan criteria Storm tracks meeting your criteria will be listed in the Results box Individually un check any tra
21. Center Advisory Name Number ZULU Z Time of Issuance of Advisory Disk Filename Storm Name Advisory Year Month Date Time Issued lt lt scheduled 1 2008 5TM 5 208 w 15002 or EDT v Header Information Disk Filename In this box you select the filename for the storm file you wish to work with All advisories for a storm come within one storm file so if you just want to select another advisory choose the Advisory box see below Storm Name The selected storm s name is printed in this box Advisory st This is the box where you can either select another advisory s data to view or more commonly this is where you enter a new advisory number to indicate that you want to enter new advisory data from the latest NHC or CPHC Forecast Advisory Note To enter Intermediate Advisories simply type in the Advisory number plus an A B or C as appropriate that s how they are numbered Intermediate Public advisories do not contain any new forecast information Just enter the new Initial Position of the storm change the issuance time and keep all else same as previous advisory Time of Advisory Issuance If entering a new advisory in these boxes you choose the Year Month Date Time of issuance of the advisory These boxes automatically change if you are simply viewing another advisory in the file to reflect the issuance time of that advisory When entering a new advisory remembe
22. Hourly Error Ellipse The white circle surrounding the 36 hour forecast position in this display represents the Average Forecast Error or 1 region in which the storm center is most likely to be located gt 5 36 at that discrete hour of the forecast period Winds of ew tropical storm force or greater fringe winds could be occurring within the hatched area if the storm tracked at the outer edge of the error ellipse Q The Error Ellipse button at the edge of the map view toggles the view between error ellipse only error ellipse fringe winds and no display Left click to turn the display on and off Right click to change the display type These operations are also duplicated in the Toolbox under the Storm Features Hourly Error Ellipse heading Error ellipses are shown for discrete hours and when you turn the display on the first hour shown is the 12 hour forecast position 9 hours from the advisory issuance time Use the Time button at the edge of the map view to advance the storm along its forecast track and the Time button to return to earlier hours The fringe wind ellipse disappears from the display once a storm is advanced beyond forecast hour 72 This occurs because the hurricane centers do not make wind extent forecast data available beyond the 72 hour point Background Information The error ellipse reflects the uncertainty in the hurricane forecast process The ellipse means that even though
23. Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Wind Tags Wind Tags are an ANNOTATION item accessed in the Toolbox and through right clicking on the map Wind tags are interactive displays of wind on the tracking map which change as the storm is moved or an advisory is changed They stick where they are placed regardless of panning or zooming actions by the user Map J Advisory KATRINA Advy 26 August 29 2005 5 amp M EDT Mon CurrentLocation 28 8 N 88 6 V 150 mph Cat 4 15 mph Zoom To Selected Storm Select Nearest Advisory Annotate Text Here Move Nearest Text Here Delete Nearest Text Delete ALL Text Ilole le Sx 2 52 Place WindTag Here gt Z Remove Nearest WindTag They are useful to display the NHC CPHC or JTWC forecast implied winds at any point and to show whether winds in an area will be blowing onshore and thus subjecting the area to storm surge or blowing offshore which should lessen and even eliminate storm surge Wind Tag locations are saved on disk between sessions so you can set them up for an area of concern and they will be available when you next use the program The exact location of the wind speed and direction computed with the wind tags is at the upper left corner of the wind tag box How to Use Wind Tags Ahead of a Land falling Storm 1 Hurrevac2010 is pre configured with a few wind tags already on the map so the first action you may want to t
24. Oct 20 Nov 30 S or SW FL after July 4 week to Labor Day No holiday or special event Exits FL as hurricane Extends to inland counties Coastal Counties only Sw S TP Bay TreaCst ECent Nw w Withlacoo NCent Apalach 3 or more counties in error cone and Cat storm major 3 4 5 3to B counties in hurricane warning Less than 3 counties in hurricane warning E B D B 115 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Hurricane Risk Profile Local for Santa Rosa County FL Tropical Cyclone IDA Advisory 21 Date Time SUN 11 08 09 22 EST D Other Considerations Indicator Level AY Critical Of Concem 1 next 72 hours Yellow 3 to 6 inches Data not available for advisory gt 24 hours old Green Less than 3 inches E What is the maximum clearance time for a Florida Red Greater than 24 hours IN 2 county within the 120 hour forecast error cone Yellow Between 12 and 24 hours Hillsborough 34 hrs for Cat 3 Green Less than 12 hours A Green No holiday or special event Do hurricane force winds normally reach this Red Hurricane force 64 kts 74 county in a storm with this strength and forward mph or greater speed Yellow 50 to 63 kts 58 to 73 mph Hurricane force Green Less than 50 kts 58mph or not in error cone Which Florida RPC Regions are in the 72 hour Red Southwest South Tampa Bay after Oct20 high occupancy 5 5 FL Weekend Yellow Hurric
25. Print Item Report Text If you have an active report or text advisory showing HURREVAC assumes that you want to print the report If you want to print such a report you must generate it first and leave it showing onthe screen Caution Some of these lists especially the Wind Decay affected list can be quite long and you may want to select lines first for printing see below Storm Map This item is set automatically if there is no report showing This prints the map only including any annotations thereon Current Report Extent Selected Lines If you have selected lines in the report showing on screen this option is set automatically You must select lines in the report click and drag over the ones you want in order to use this option Entire List If you have not selected lines in the current affected list showing on screen then it is assumed you want to print out the entire list Print Output Printer Sends the printout to the current printer 93 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual File Sends the printout to a file of your choice with a default destination of My Documents Graphics files can be saved in several different formats Reports are saved as plain text files which may be imported into a spreadsheet as space delimited data 94 Other Forms Monitoring Ribbon Hurrevac2010 features a ribbon across the top of the program interface that is primarily dedicated to monitoring a live stream of storm tracking
26. This browser can also be launched by clicking on a specific tide gage point on the map Tide gages are an available data layer on the Current data tab HURREVAC monitors over 100 coastal tide gages in hurricane prone states from Texas to Maine The program s Tide Gage display is an important tool for weighing tidal inundation and storm surge threats from approaching storms The storm surge components of this browser are detailed in the SLOSH Display topic NOAA s National Ocean Service NOS is the source ofthis tide gage data The HURREVAC system data hurrevac com receives updated gage observations and forecasts as often as every hour from NOS Each time you turn on the Tide Gages layer of the Current data tab Hurrevac2010 downloads the latest available information from data hurrevac com To refresh the gage display after a number of hours of viewing simply un check and then recheck the Tide Gages layer HURREVAC 2010 Version 1 0 161 Hurricane Decision Support for Emergency Management e n olx 2 setup s updateNow Auto Status Checkis off Current Archives Atlantic East Pac 1 Cent Pac t West Pac amp 10 1 South Pac amp 10 8 1 Rain Rivers River Gages MLL FORT PULASKI SAVANNAH RIVER GA GagelD 8670870 m LATEST 3 97 ft Mean Lower Low Water 2feetM SL 10 6 11E Click on graphto show values in boxes below for a specific hour 9 STORM FEATURES Ce A
27. data to a file click the Print button on the Monitoring Ribbon at the top of the program Use the Refresh button at bottom right to redo the report if you have a new storm or different advisory loaded into the Map Display The Refresh button can be useful in a live storm situation in which a new advisory is received by the system and you want to refresh the Risk Profile with the latest forecast information Alternately you could use the Advy and Advy buttons to run a Risk Profile for a different advisory The Evac Options button allows you to view and change the default HES settings for a county or counties Changing these settings can have a major effect on the Risk Profile output and should only be manipulated if you are very familiar with the underlying Hurricane Evacuation Study 107 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Florida Risk Profile This series of images shows an example of the Risk Profile for Florida from Hurricane Ida Advisory 21 2009 IDA 21 November 8 2009 10 PM EST Sun CurrentLocation 23 7 86 7 Vv 105 mph Cat 2 14 mph 7 PM 45mph SSCat 0 mo m Wed 7 AM 40mph SSCat 0 movg 10mph Wed 7 PM 35mph SSCat 0 movg 10mph Trop Storm Warning Trop Storm Watch 108 Special Tools State and Local Topics Hurricane Risk Profile 5tate for Florida Tropical Cyclone IDA Advisory 21 Date Time SUN 11 08 09 22 EST A Risk Area Definition Indicator Level AY Critical i Of Concem
28. decision time To sort by a different item click on its heading once for ascending order twice for descending order Items in the report are e Evacuation Type as determined by the selected scenario in the Hurricane Evacuation Study e Decide Date Time of decision time Past indicates that the evacuation should already be underway if needed e Duration the clearance time or number of hours needed to complete the evacuation 51 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual e Category Occupancy Response Hurrevac defaults to medium occupancy medium response and the max storm category forecasted e Arrival times of 34kt tropical storm force and 64kt hurricane force winds plus the eye of the storm e Nearest refers to how close the actual forecast comes to the county This is the only data item that is based on the actual forecast rather than the worst case direct hit scenario Report for Hurricane Katrina Based on Advisory 15 Issued 08 26 05 11PM EDT OLD Advisory Evacuation Timing Local Areas 53 Items Y Location Evac Type Decide Dur Dark Cat Oc Re gt 34kt 39 LA Plaquemines Slow Peak 08 28 16E iei To limit the report length either choose Locals Only In Error Cone which limits the list to those within the Average Error Swath 52 Reports Closest Approach Report The Closest Approach report is accessed from the REPORTS heading of Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox This report shows the closest distance po
29. in these 3 areas e Gulf Of Mexico land falling storms includes the west coast of Florida e Southeast Coast land falling storms from Key West to the NC VA border 46 Reports e Mid Atlantic and New England storms north of NC VA border this separate area necessitated by the faster forward speeds typical there The colors representing the wind categories are annotated on screen when this mode is in effect 47 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Wind Timing Report The Wind Timing Reports are accessed from the REPORTS heading of Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox Note that all the computations done to arrive at the information here use the advisory forecast s wind swath as a basis This is more specific information subject to forecast error which should not be utilized until the last few advisories before landfall To print or export the report s data to a file click the Print button on the Monitoring Ribbon at the top of the program Single Location The Wind Timing Single Location report consists of hour by hour wind detail information for a selected county The time frame ranges from hour 0 the hour of the forecast to hour 72 the limit of the wind swath Each row of the tabular report is colored according to the wind intensity gray if under threshold for tropical storm force winds blue if tropical storm force 34kt or 39mph yellow if 50kt or 58mph and red if hurricane force 64kt or 74mph n9 Map Advisory Report fo
30. nearby regions are likely to be evacuating One Way Concerns This topic is usually available only when the state profile is selected It considers the problem of whether and when to reverse lane certain evacuation routes in order to increase capacity Summary A summary screen can be generated of either the state profile or local county topics by clicking on the Summary button The summary provides a graphical overview of the Risk Profile Indicators for the last 12 advisories Once the summary screen is displayed subsequent clicks on the Summary button will toggle between a view of 12 main and intermediate advisories Al Advy and a view of main advisories only Main Advy Report for Tropical Storm Hanna IE Based on Advisory 34 Issued 09 05 08 5AM EDT OLD Advisory Risk Profile for V Risk Profile Summary State for Virginia Tropical Cyclone HANNA Advisory 34 Date Time FRI 09 05 08 05 EDT Indicator Level Critical Dat Concern Risk AreaDefmitio E vac Considera E vac Considerato One wWayC R Y G Cr oC 123458 12345 123 456 1234 D T a 4 128 3 VA State Profile PS NC Currituck 7 NC Dare V Accomack Baa 2 V Albemarle V Allegheny V Amelia 4 B 113 3 4 8 113 3 7 Risk Area Definition Storm Intensity and Evacuation a B 18 23 m Q Evacuation Characteristics Dther Considerations 8 6 8 2 4 8 8 2 4 Resources One Way Conc
31. onset of tropical storm force Red Within 24 hours i forecast track Green Greater than 36 hours or none 44 hrs in Suffolk Earliest NHC Forecast Track CPA Decision Time Red Decision time has passed for counties within the 72 hour average forecast Yellow 12 hours or less to decision time EU winds 39 mph in NY Northern NJ based on the Yellow Between 24 and 36 hours ESI error cone Green Greater than 12 hours from 44 hrs Suffolk 03 03 10 1 PM decision time Earliest Direct Hit Decision Time for counties Red Decision time has passed within the 72 hour average forecast error cone Yellow 12 hours or less to decision time 41 hrs NYC Metro 09 03 10 10 Green Greater than 12 hours from decision time Does the storm event coincide with a holiday Red Within 1 week of July 4 or Labor period Day weekend 1 week of Labor Day Yellow After July 4 week and before Labor Day weekend Green Outside of holiday period 137 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Hurricane Risk Profile Local for NYC Metro County NY Tropical Cyclone EARL Advisory 30 Date Time WED 09 01 10 17 EDT C Evacuation Considerations Indicator Level Critical T Of Concem J Average forward speed over 72 hour forecast 1 period or until landfall Average forward speed 24 mph Has the radius of maximum tropical storm force 2 winds expanded from previous advisories No expansion or decrease Maximum clearance time for your cou
32. percent EB last advisory Yellow Remained same percent Decreased SZ to 7 Green Decreased in percent Storm s steepest forecast angle of approach to Red 120 160 degs 4 to 5 o clock 5 NY Northern NJ coastline Yellow 161 199 degs 5 to o clock Does not cross NY Northem NJ coastline Green All other approaches the 72 hour forecast track Yellow Between 58 and 74 mph 49 mph in Suffolk Green Less than 58 mph Forecast peak wind in NY Northem NJ based Reds Hurricane force gt 74 mph EB 133 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Hurricane Risk Profile Local for NYC Metro County NY Tropical Cyclone EARL A Risk Of Impact Advisory 30 Date Time WED 09 01 10 17 EDT Indicator Level Critical T Of Concem 6 Is this county within the NHC 120 hour average 1 forecast error cone Outside error cone Are NHC Watches or Warnings in effect for your 2 county OR if inland county nearby coast Tropical Storm Watch What is the NHC wind probability nearest your county 0 for 6 for 32 for 34kt Have the wind probabilities nearest your county 4 increased or decreased since the last advisory Decreased 1 to 0 Storm s steepest forecast angle of approach to NY Northern NJ coastline Does not cross Northern NJ coastline Forecast peak wind in your county based on the 72 hour forecast track lt 39 mph 34kt Notes on the Risk of Impact
33. represent the river trend e Red for rising e Blue for falling e Black for steady River Gage Browser The browser is used to display the data from an individual gage site You bring up the browser by clicking on the circle representing the gage of interest River Gages Click on River Gage circle on map to select location Navasota River 8 SW Normangee NGE FLOOD 15 ft 260 MSL LATEST Stage 19 58 ft 264 58 MSL AT 04 3 9E Gage Zero 245 ft MSL Graph Impacts Crests OSE 21E OSE 21E OSE 21E 09E 21E 09E 21E 09E 21E 04 28 04 28 04 50 04 30 05 01 0501 0502 05 02 05 03 05 03 05 04 05 04 Observed o NWS Forecast oaao Flood Moderate Flood e Major Flood 64 Browsers Graph of river level and rainfall The River Gage browser time frame is different for observation only display and observation and forecast displays e For observation only displays the 36 hours of past gage readings are spread out across the graph for clarity with the last reading where the heavy vertical line is drawn e For observation and forecast displays the 36 hours of past readings are on the left side of the graph followed by 120 hours of forecast stages on the right 2 3rds of the display The color scheme for the observations and forecasts are noted at the bottom of the browser If Basin Average Rainfall observations and forecasts are available they are presented at the upper left of the graph The color scheme is the s
34. several Other Forecast Data products that can be helpful to consider when weighing the flooding threat from an approaching storm This information can be displayed on the map and in a report of affected counties parishes The source of this data is the HPC or NOAA Hydro Met Prediction Center which compiles generalized rainfall forecasts for the continental US These forecasts are for three successive days and are issued twice a day around 8am and 8pm Eastern 12Z and 02 Each 24 hour cumulative rainfall forecast takes the form of isopleths polygons of rainfall amount with the higher amounts of rain nested within the lower amounts The amounts are in hundredths of an inch with 0 25 1 4 inch 1 50 1 1 2 inch etc Map View Days 1 2 and 3 can be cycled through using the radio buttons under the Rain heading of the Current data tab 24HR NOAA H P C Rainfall Forecast Day 1 ending 1046 09 54 Reports Report View The Rainfall Report is accessed from the REPORTS heading of Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox NOAA H P C Rainfall Forecast in inches issued 10 15 2009 08 for 24 hour periods ending at times shown Rainfall Report 1503 Items Location Day 1 10 16 09 08 Dap 2 10 17 03 08E 3 10 18 03 08E Total Days 1 3 NJ Atlantic 1 50 to 2 00 Inches 0 25 to 0 50 Inches 1 00 to 1 50 Inches 2 75 Inches or more gt anm SS Alphabetical Alltems Locals Only The report s data can be sorted by any of the colum
35. storm center at the time of advisory issuance intensity Synonomous with maximum sustained winds or SS Category J JTWC Joint Typhoon Warning Center This US Navy office located on the Naval Base at Pearl Harbor in Hawaii is responsible for all tropical cyclone forecasts west of 180 degrees It is the source of West Pacific South Pacific and Indian Ocean advisory data in HURREVAC M 156 Glossary MEOW surge Maximum Envelope of Water is a SLOSH model output describing the maximum storm surge value produced by parallel tracks of storms with the same forward speed strength and angle of approach MEOW wind Maximum Envelope of Winds is a wind decay model describing the maximum distance certain categories of wind can penetrate inland given the storm strength and forward speed MOM Maximum of Maximums is a SLOSH model output describing the maximum storm surge value produced by storms of a single Safir Simpson category taking into account all angles of approach and forward speeds NHC National Hurricane Center This National Weather Service office located in Miami FL is responsible for tropical cyclone forecasts for the Atlantic and East Pacific to 140 degrees West It is the source of Atlantic and East Pacific advisory data in HURREVAC NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration parent organization to the National Weather Service NWS NWS National Weather Service the official US government agency f
36. times with information from the previous boxes if the previous box had any values From there you can edit in any changes needed to reflect the Forecast Advisory data Other Items Warnings The Enter Edit Warnings button brings up a screen where you can select areas of NHC or CPHC watches and warnings for display with the active advisory in the program Advisory Text Decoder This tool allows you to decode an ascii text file of the NHC or Forecast Advisory into an STM file Follow the instructions and specify where the forecast advisory and the NHC Wind Probabilities files reside on your system and a data file will be created or added to as appropriate NHC CPHC Forecast Advisory Text Decoder INSTRUCTIONS Specify a Text file containing the NHC or CPHC Forecast Advisory If the Forecast Advisory does not contain Wind Probabilities you may specify a file containing the Wind Probabilities Then select Decode An attempt will be made to decode these into Hurrevac data and put them in the proper file If the Wind Probs are not available the data file will be usable otherwise NHC Forecast Advisory Text location NHC Wind Probabilities Text location 71 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Historical Scan The Historical Scan is located under the UTILITIES heading of Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox Storm tracks from the National Hurricane Center s historical database of Atlantic 1851 Current Year and Eastern North Paci
37. to o clock 207 degrees 7 O clock Green 181 270 degs or NONE Bag Forecast peak wind in your locality based on the Red Hurricane Force winds 72 hr forecast track Yellow Between 58 and 74mph 52Mph 45Kt Green Less than 58mph 122 Special Tools Hurricane Risk Profile State for Virginia Tropical Cyclone B Storm Intensity and Evacuation Scenario J ime 1 What is the current intensity of the storm Cat 0 Tropical Storm before landfall No Change Difference in central pressure from last advisory 3 1 millibars mb RISE E How is the storm intensity forecast to change 2 projected track 25 hrs Planning amp ssumption for determination of Evacuation Category if B2 is Red use NHC Forecast Cat DR if B3 and B4 are Red Increase One Category from that of B1 No Evac Category should remain for Cat 0 Number of hours left to intensify before landfall on Advisory t 34 Date Time FRI 08 05 08 05 EDT Indicator Level AX Critical of Concem Conditions Red Major Hurricane Cat 3 4 5 Yellow Hurricane Cat 1 or Green Tropical Storm or lower Red Increase in Category Yellow No Increase in Cat Green Decrease in Cat Red Decrease by more than 5 mb Yellow Decrease by less than 5 mb or Same Green Increase Red Greater than 72 hours Yellow 37 to 72 hours Green 36 hours or less Red Assume Evacuation Category higher Yellow Not used Green Evacuation
38. uncertainties from the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center and are computed for coastal and inland cities as well as offshore locations e g buoys For each probability value the event in question is a sustained one minute average surface 10 meter wind speed of at least a particular threshold value 34 50 or 64 kt at a specific location The numbers shown on HURREVAC s map are the cumulative 120 hour probabilities These values tell you the overall probability the event will occur sometime during the specified cumulative forecast period 0 120 hours at each specific point 26 Storm Features Actual Track Ahead Two storm tracks appear ahead of the storm location whenever you are viewing an earlier advisory The black dotted line is the forecast track from the particular advisory you are viewing and the blue dotted line is the Actual Track Ahead This actual track is comprised of initial positions from all later advisories pe aa M 3 You may wish to turn off the Actual Track Ahead if you are working with forecasts from HURREVAC s archive storms and find it distracting 27 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Alternate Track Alternate track displays are a useful tool for exploring What If scenarios After changing the tracking map to display one of the three alternate track options you can run reports on the new scenario and manipulate the storm features on the tracking map in th
39. were issued where tropical storm conditions were expected within 24 hours and tropical storm watches green when that threat was possible within 36 hours Since the start of the 2010 hurricane season watches and warning are issued 12 hours earlier than in previous years so 48 hours for watches and 36 hours for warnings 25 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Wind Probabilities This display indicates the probability of hurricane 50kt and tropical storm force within a 120 hour period Wind Probabilities appear as numbered boxes along the coast and are only visible when you are working with the particular advisory in which they were issued IKE 42 Vind Probability Cumulative 120hour Total 34kt 39mph SOK S8mph B4kt 7 4mph Three numbers are given at each location The red box is probability of 64 knot 74mph winds yellow boxes contain probability of 50 knot S8mph winds and blue boxes contain probability of 34 knot 39mph winds 3 The Wind Probabilities button at the edge of the map view toggles this display on and off with a left click Background Information The Surface Wind Speed Probabilities text product which is attached to the bottom of the Forecast Advisory Text product in HURREVAC provides probabilities in percent of sustained wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 50 and 64 knot wind speed thresholds These wind speed probabilities are based on the track intensity and wind structure forecasts and
40. you have the most accurate forecast information and are therefore in a position to make the best decision The precise evacuation clearance time number of hours used in the calculation will be based upon your selection of Evacuation Options Finally to run the evacuation decision time calculations you generate a tabbed Evacuation Timing Report These calculations should be updated each time a new forecast advisory is received This is 15 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual easily accomplished either with the Refresh button at the bottom of original report or by generating an additional tabbed report If configured the Decision Time Alert will appear when your county or parish is within 12 hours of needing to make a decision Those familiar with the pre computer methods for evacuation decision timing may also wish to use the graphical Decision Arc Tool Using HURREVAC Current Archives Other Forecast Data x Atlantic In addition to wind effects storm surge and inland flooding are two East Pac critical hazards that also need to be considered when preparing for a hurricane strike HURREVAC incorporates a number of NOAA NWS Cont Pac products to assist with the assessment of these threats through the West Pac amp 10 Rain Rivers and Tide Gages headings of the Current data tab This South Pac amp 10 X information is available year round even when there are no active SHY Rain tropic
41. 09 01 10 17 EDT B Storm Intensity Indicator Level A Critical Of Concern What is the current intensity of the storm Red Major hurricane 3 4 5 1 Cat 4 major hurricane Yellow Hurricane Cat 1 or 2 Green Tropical storm or lower What is the forecast storm intensity at closest Red Major hurricane 3 4 5 2 approach Yellow Hurricane Cat 1 or 2 Cat 2 hurricane Green Tropical storm or lower Difference in central pressure from last advisory Red Decrease by more than 5 mb 3 No change millibars mb 941 to 341 mb Yellow Decrease by less than 5 mb or Same Green Increase Do hurricane force winds normally penetrate inland Red Greater than 5 inland counties 4 in a storm with this strength and forward speed Yellow 1 to 5 inland counties affected Coastal counties only Green Coastal counties only or not in error cone 135 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Hurricane Risk Profile Local for NYC Metro County NY Tropical Cyclone EARL Advisory 30 Date Time WED 09 01 10 17 EDT B Storm Intensity Indicator Level Critical Of Concem J What is the current intensity of the storm Red Major hurricane 3 4 5 1 Cat 4 major hurricane Yellow Hurricane Cat 1 or 2 Green Tropical storm or lower Notes on the Storm Intensity Criteria What is the forecast storm intensity at closest Red Major hurricane 3 4 5 approach Yellow Hurricane Ca
42. 2 EST C Evacuation Characteristics Indicator Level AY Critical Of Concem e O E Is the forward speed of the storm forecast to Red Increase 1 increase decrease or stay same Yellow Remain same Decrease 5 to average 12 mph before Green Decrease Number of hours until onset of tropical storm force Reds Within 24 hours 2 98 mph in Florida based on the forecast Yellow Between 24 and 36 hours track Green Greater than 36 hours or none 19 hrs in Escambia Maximum clearance time for a Florida county Red Greater than 24 hours 3 within the NHC 72 hour average error cone Yellow Between 12 and 24 hours Hillsborough 33 5 hrs for Cat 3 Green Less than 12 hours Earliest NHC Forecast Track Decision Time Hed Decision time has past for counties within the 72 hour average forecast Yellow 12 hours or less to decision time error cone Green Greater than 12 hours to PAST DECISION 2 hrs Escambia decision time Earliest Direct Hit Decision Time for counties Red Decision time has past within the 72 hour average forecast error cone Yellow 12 hours or less to decision time PAST DECISION TIME 21 5 hrs Manatee Green Greater than 12 hours to decision time For the Florida county with earliest Decision Red or S amp M 4PM Time period of day when the decision time Mon Fri Yellow 4PM 11PM Green or Sat Sun 113 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Hurri
43. 8 72 96 and 120 The swath means that even though the has forecast a specific track the storm could end up anywhere within the swath within the next 72 hours with around a 6696 confidence level Indeed the storm could end up outside the swath but the swath is based on a 5 year average of forecast errors and recent developments in forecast models such as the GFDL model have improved forecast skill Nevertheless if your area is in or near to this swath you should be concerned and begin at least some preliminary planning for possible action 24 Storm Features Watches Warnings Watches and warnings appear as lines along the coast or as flags marking segment starting and ending locations Watches and warnings are only visible when you are working with a particular advisory in which they were issued Hurricane Warning Hurricane Watch Trop Storm Warning Trop Storm Watch Watch Warn button at the edge of the map view toggles the view between lines flags lines flags and no display Left click to turn the display on and off Right click to change the display type These operations are also duplicated in the Toolbox under the STORM FEATURES Watches Warnings heading Background Information Prior to 2010 the NHC and CPHC issued hurricane warnings red when hurricane conditions were expected within 24 hours and hurricane watches pink when hurricane conditions were possible within 36 hours Tropical storm warnings blue
44. Affected APPLY 149 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Set Edit Facility Options To add or subtract hours enter the value in the box enter to subtract and select Apply Apply to Selected Facilities is an option for facilities highlighted in blue using CTRL click Mobilize Time Offset hrs Evacuation Time Offset hrs Close Time Offset hrs Apply to Selected Facilitie Apply to ALL Facilities Below Facility end Mobilize time hrs Evacuate time hrs Closure time hrs Total time hrs Yukon Dep Surge 6 6 6 6 6 474747474 13 14 16 18 18 US 46 MP 69 9 Suge 3 3 3 3 3 6 6 6 6 6 17 5 719 5 22 2 25 8 258 US 183 Truck MP 2 1 Suge 3 3 3 3 3 6 6 6 6 6 17 5 719 5 22 2 25 8 25 8 Throgs Neck Bridge ctr span 3 3 3 3 3 12 12 12 12 122 132 162 182 182 Throgs Neck Bridge Cross Island Pkwy 5 3 3 3 3 3 6 6 6 6 6 15 19 22 24 24 Teterboro Aiport 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 13 15 18 22 22 lt Values parentheses change if any Reset to Original Modifying Facility Times To add or subtract hours from the default values enter an offset number in the appropriate box using a minus sign before the number if subtracting and press one of the two Apply buttons The Apply to ALL Facilities Below button makes the change to all facilities shown in the list while the Apply to Selected Facilities button makes the change to only those facilities highligh
45. C does not do actual SLOSH modeling but rather ingests SLOSH model output from NHC and superimposes the surge predictions on the Tide Gage Browser There are two types of SLOSH display modes available 1 Normal mode for SLOSH REX surge forecasts TideGageForm SABINE PASS NORTH GagelD 8770570 feet LATEST 87 ft Mean Lower Low Water 2 feet M S L 09 23 OF E Latest Available SLOSH Guidance 9 21 2006 11Z Click on graphto show values in boxes below for a specific haur 100 5 0 4 20 2 0 Use lt gt buttons below to adjust time of Peak Surge 6 hours 0 13E 19E 13E 19E 13E 19E 07E 09 21 09 21 09 22 09 22 09 22 09 22 09 23 09 23 09 23 09 23 08 24 09 24 Observed Tide a s a Predicted Tide Time of Closest Approach of Storm if within Time Fano Selected Time Guidance TideTable Residual Scale Time Frame O um wave 17 SLOSH Options NORMAL displays SLOSH REX surge forecast if available EXERCISE displays hypothetical MEO W MOM values EXERCISE Options NORMAL mode is for live storms It displays the usual tide plot PLUS any recent or archived SLOSH REX output files received at hurrevac com from the NHC As a general rule these will be available only 24 hours before projected landfall of a storm and only for the general strike location of that storm 99 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual When real time SLOSH mod
46. Category remains same 123 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Hurricane Risk Profile Local for Ya Beach County Tropical Cyclone Advisory 34 Date Time FRI 08 05 08 05 EDT B Storm Intensity and Evacuation Scenario Indicator Level AY Critical Of Concem What is the current intensity of the storm Red Major Hurricane Cat 3 4 5 1 Cat 0 Tropical Storm Yellow Hurricane Cat 1 or 2 Green Tropical Storm or lower How is the storm intensity forecast to change Red Increase in Category 2 before landfall Yellow No Increase in Cat No Change Green Decrease in Cat Difference in central pressure from last advisory Red Decrease by more than 5 mb 3 1 millibars mb RISE Yellow Decrease by less than 5 mb Green Increase Number of hours left to intensify until landfall of Red Greater than 72 hours eye Yellow 37 to 72 hours 25 hrs Green 36 hours or less Forecast Cat OR if B3 and B4 are Red Increase Yellow Not used One Category from that of B1 Green Evacuation Category remains No Evac Category should remain for Cat 0 same Planning amp ssumption for determination of Red Assume Evacuation one Evacuation Category if B2 is Red use NHC Category higher 124 Special Tools Hurricane Risk Profile State for Virginia Tropical Cyclone Advisory 34 Date Time FRI 09 05 08 05 EDT C Evacuation Characteristics Predicted forward speed over 72 hour forecast 1 period or until
47. During the tracking of an approaching storm the Decision Time Alert can be used to notify you of the first forecast advisory that puts the storm within 12 hours of evacuation decision time for a select county and evacuation scenario Since the NHC and JTWC issue new forecast advisories at 6 hour intervals the alert is intended as advance warning that an evacuation decision will need to be made based upon the next advisory or two NOTE The appearance of the Alert does not automatically imply an evacuation is necessary merely that the time for an evacuation decision is nearing See Evacuation Decision Timing for more information on this topic Clicking on the Details of the Alert you are then presented with the calculated Decision Time and the actual number of hours remaining Time Left to Decision Hurrevac Alert Details Seg A This Alert is for ACCOMACK based on NHC Advisory for ISABEL 47 Set your county or parish of interest in Utilies Set E vac Options THE ABOVE COUNTY PARISH IS WITHIN 12 HOURS of DECISION TIME for one or more Evacuation Scenarios as calculated using the official NHC Advisory derived Direct Hit arrival time of 34 kt winds and the following official Hurricane Evacuation Study scenario evacuation times listed below Definition DECISION TIME is the LATEST time at which it is prudent to make a decision about WHETHER OR NOT to evacuate in response to the threat That decisi
48. Entry feature under Utilities option NOTE Standard wind ranges are assumed by the Track Wizard initially You can make fine tuning adjustments to the wind ranges and add watch warning locations by using Storm Data Entry Manual Edit utility 84 Other Forms Setup Form Hurrevac2010 s Setup Form is called from the Setup button at top right of the Monitoring Ribbon HURREVAC me 9x Curent Setup Tabs State Plug Ins Connection Settings Download Schedule Local Defaults Timeline Time Zone 85 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual State Plug Ins State Plug In configuration is handled by Hurrevac2010 s Setup Form Hurrevac Setup Form State Plug Ins Connection Settings Download Schedule Local Defaults Timeline Time Zone Checked Boxes are States or Items you want Hurricane Evacuation Study Times LA Counties Parishes available 21 Alabama Acadia C Connecticut Assumption raters _ Delaware Calcasieu E Cameron Florida ibaa Georgia Iberville Hawaii Jeff Davis v Inundation Maps where available Counties Parishes type size Alabama Delaware Florida Update Georgia Louisiana NOAA River Gage Maps type size secre Download onnecticut Update Florida NOTE In many areas Evacuation Study Times and Inundation Maps are either old or non existent due to lack of funding If you are a
49. For a more prominent and detailed version change the box type under ANNOTATION Storm Info Box To find out how the storm is forecasted to develop over the five day period use the yellow Move Storm AHEAD and BACK buttons of the Map Toolbar The Storm Info Box will update as you advance the storm along its forecast track An alternate way to gather statistics about the storm is through the Storm Statistics Graph or Report You can determine when tropical storm force winds are projected to reach the coast by advancing the storm along its forecast track until the blue ring of the Hourly Wind Ranges touches the coast Adding Advisory Labels to the forecast track can also be helpful in illustrating when the storm center is forecasted to be over an area 13 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual JUN MW OO OUR CV Hurricane Ike 35 September 12 2008 10 AM EDT Friday 65Hr Forecast 26 3 94 3 W Max Sustained Wind 115 mph Cat 3 Current Movement 12 mph Current Location O Forecast Positions Potential Track Area Sat 2 PM SSCat 0 zi Sat 2 AM SSCat 1 Thu 2 PM SSCat 3 Tum 15 Thu 2 AM SSCat ed 2 PM SSCat 2 Wed 2 AM SSCat 1 NS You should not focus solely on the forecast track or precise wind timing however when a storm is still distant 36 to 120 hours away Direction of the storm track movement speed and storm size is uncertain and one should be focused on probabilistic forecast rat
50. Hurrevac2010 User s Manual Updated May 23 2011 NA A STORM TRACKING AND DECISION ASSISTANCE TOOL REY FOR GOVERNMENT EMERGENCY MANAGERS FEMA 4 Table of Contents Welcometo HURREVAG ris oie tetendit eoe oet enatis 1 Whats New in Hurrevac20 10 erotici 2 Getting Started ERR DR ae ees 4 R 4 Program DISEtEDUIOD aa iiec obe e URS PAG UE GRE HUN RR Do i d 5 Installation and Configuration HA I 6 USING IHU rdi VAC cr 7 Topics In This TOU a i eiie tie Feet ee ondes eed ette te lind ee ceo ie dite een de ee et edenda 7 Exploring the WOrkSpace eter tee etcetera 8 Tracking Current STORMS 10 A alyzing Distant uu HERR ec 13 Evacuation Decision 0 2 4 4 15 Other Forecast bricht 17 Working witty Archive SLONMS adsl GRAN dos OR pte NU du Rt NOR SRM La up 18 STOP E AAE IE EE 20 Available Storm 4
51. Hurrevac2010 s help system 95 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Ie m ele e 2 ieli e sir 96 Map Toolbar The Map Toolbar consists of a set of a set of buttons and tools for map and storm plot manipulation Items on the toolbar are as follows from top to bottom Zoom Tool Click and Drag zooming on the map Pan Tool Click and Drag panning on the map Extent Button Left click to zoom to full extent map right click to zoom to local map See UTILITIES Map Defaults for configuration instructions Zoom IN and OUT Buttons Left click for 20 incremental zoom in or out right click for 40 zoom Move Storm AHEAD and BACK Buttons Advance storm forward or back in forecast hour 1 hour with left click 6 hours with right click NEXT and PREVIOUS Advisory Buttons Advance storm forward or back in advisories 1 advisory with left click 3 advisories with right click Wind Ranges Button Action duplicates STORM FEATURES Hourly Wind Ranges Forecast Wind Swath Button Action duplicates STORM FEATURES 72 Hr Wind Swath Average Error Button Action duplicates STORM FEATURES Error Swath Storm Track Labels Button Action duplicates ANNOTATION Advisory Labels Watches Warnings Button Action duplicates STORM FEATURES Watches Warnings Wind Probabilities Button Action duplicates STORM FEATURES Wind Probabilities Other Forms Decision Time Alert
52. Hurricane Risk Profile 5tate for Florida Tropical Cyclone IDA Advisory 21 Date Time SUN 11 08 09 22 EST B Storm Intensity and Evacuation Scenario Indicator Level AY Critical Of Concem me 1 What is the current intensity of the storm Red Major hurricane Cat 3 4 5 i Cat 2 hurricane Yellow Hurricane Cat 1 or 2 Green Tropical storm or lower ndm How is the storm intensity forecast to change Increase in category B 2 before landfall Yellow No increase in category No change Green Decrease in category E k How close is the storm maximu Red Within 5 mph of next category 3 4 the next highest Saffir Simpson category Yellow Within 10 mph of next category mph from Cat 3 Green 10 mph or more from next category Number of hours left for storm to intensify before Hed 49 of more hours landfall of eye on projected track Yellow 25 to 48 hours Bi 72 hrs Green 24 hours or less mois Planning assumption for determination of Red Yes Assume evac zones one n or B4 above Yellow Not used evacuation zones Any red or yellow boxes in B3 category higher Yes Evac Zones Up 1 to Cat 3 Green No Evac zones remain same counties in the error cone Yellow Medium occupancy Medium Green Low occupancy What is the tourist population in the region at nisk Red High occupancy Special Tools 111 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Hurricane Risk Profile Local for Sa
53. NNOTATION REPORTS 9 Storm Statistics Error Swath E Wind Decay i Wind Timing Evacuation Timing 18E 00 OSE 12E 18E 00E 06E 12E 18E 00 O6E 12E Brai 1014 1045 1045 1045 1045 10M6 1046 1046 1046 1047 1047 1077 Facilities Timing Observed Tide a o a Predicted Tide Time of Closest Approach of Storm if within Time Frame i Selected Time Observed TideTable Residual Scale Time Frame BROWSERS 10 16 11E 387 312 8 UTI ITIFS Working with Tide Gages Tide gages are best displayed on the map when zoomed in to a state wide or tighter view The gages appear as circles along the coast Click on the circle of interest to bring up the Tide Gage Browser for that gage The Tide Gage browser time frame is typically from 48 hours before current time to 30 hours or so beyond the current time Observations versus predicted heights are available up to the current time and predictions only from current into the future up to 5 days 120 hours The time frame of the 66 Browsers display can be lengthened forward up to 120 hours by using the Time Frame buttons below the graph The vertical scale of the gage display can be adjusted using the Scale buttons below the graph The heavier gray vertical line represents the latest data and can be moved left or right either by clicking with your mouse or by using the left or right arrows on your key board The data at the time referenced by
54. NOTATION item Place names can be toggled on and off under the ANNOTATION heading eland Annotation 39 Reports REPORTS is a heading within Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox When you request an item under this heading analysis is made on a particular forecast advisory and presented in the form of a report tab To generate a report you must first highlight the desired storm on the map by clicking on its name in the list The Analysis Reports Selection form is called when you click on the Analysis Reports button on the Monitoring Ribbon at top of the program or when you click on a report within the Toolbox To guide your selection each report is accompanied by a description or Meaning of Report and Cautionary Notes Ei Analysis Reports Selection Available Analysis Reports Closest Approach Of Storm Center Error Swath Affected List Evacuation Timing All Areas Evacuation Timing Local Areas Evacuation Timing Single Location Facility Timing Details Storm Statistics Graph Storm Statistics List Wind Decay Affected List Wind Timing All Affected Areas Wind Timing for Local Areas Only v Report Location Evacuation Timing Local Areas Meaning Of Report Evacuation timeline information for your Local areas if evacuation data file plug ins are available amp ssumes a direct hit for the purposes of timing a decision Cautionary Notes If your area is IN the Error Cone you should s
55. R LEFT Click for RIGHT Click for FULL SIZE Map LOCAL Map 75 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Evacuation Options Evacuation Options are available under the UTILITIES heading of Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox The options you select on this screen are very important They determine the number of evacuation clearance hours to be used in calculating the time at which actions if any should be taken This affects all the Evacuation Timing Reports and the Decision Arc plots NOTE HURREVAC cannot advise you on which scenario to select or whether to override certain variable settings These decisions should be made after studying your HES document and consulting with local officials as to the best course of action Coordination with surrounding counties and state EM offices is recommended so that all users of the program are looking at reports based upon the same parameters If several different scenarios are under consideration you can employ Hurrevac2010 s new tabbed interface to display multiple reports in the same session Choose A Location Evac Type for OLD Advisory ISABEL 45 Location Scenario Cat Occ Resp SB Total Evac Hrs Apply To ALL V Accomack Out Region 1 Medium Medium 0 21 35 V Chesapeake US58 Light 1 Medum Medum 0 485 Apply To Selected V Chesapeake 0558 Hea 11 Medum Medum 0 8 65 Use Setup Plugins to VA Chesapeake Cat34RevH 1 Medium Medium 0 2225 Enel lt T DK Saffir Simpson Category de
56. S UTILITIES 9 Storm Data Entry Historical Scan Set Map Defaults Set Evac ptions 8 8 H Decision Arc Exercise Wizard Export lmport 68 Utilities Storm Data Entry The Storm Data Entry tools are located under the UTILITIES heading of Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox These tools give you the ability to edit or create STM files Hurrevac s native storm file format The most common use is for creation of a hypothetical storm from scratch or by modifying an existing STM file Another possible use would be if you were unable to receive STM file updates from data hurrevac com and needed to manually enter forecast information into the program Manual Data Entry Edit This screen is where you enter data manually by hand if you do not have access to the Internet but have a printed copy of the NHC or JTWC forecast advisory available The official National Hurricane Center NHC Central Pacific Hurricane Center CPHC and Joint Typhoon Warning Center JTWC forecast advisories are the sources for all data used by Hurrevac2010 concerning the current storm This is the most important data the program ingests and must be done correctly or errors will result in all calculations based on this data The program does checking of gross errors in input but cannot catch all minor errors that may occur HURRE AC Manual Data Entry Edit Use Official Hurricane Center Forecast Data 1 y Hurricane
57. The first row represents the current or initial position of the storm from the Forecast Advisory text The following rows represent forecasts valid at the time printed to the left of these boxes Enter the latitude Lat and longitude Lon taken from the Advisory Maximum Wind Enter in these boxes the maximum sustained wind not gusts from the advisory at the time indicated for that row on the entry screen times are at the extreme left of the row 34 Knot Wind Range Enter the range of 34 knot winds in each quadrant NE northeast SE southeast SW southwest and NW northwest in nautical miles n m taken from the advisory lines labeled 34KT at the time indicated for the row on the entry screen times are at the extreme left of the row If none leave blank 50 Knot Wind Range Do the same for the 50 knot winds labeled 50KT in the advisory taken from the advisory at the time indicated for the row on the entry screen times are at the extreme left of the row If none leave blank 64 Knot Wind Range Do the same for the 64 knot winds labeled 64KT in the advisory taken from the advisory at the time indicated for the row on the entry screen times are at the extreme left of the row If none leave blank Central Pressure in millibars MB Enter the central pressure found on the advisory at the initial current time or time of issuance of advisory This is sometimes given in both inches and millibars but enter the data
58. abular report are colored according to activity e gray if pre decision or post storm time e green if active clearance time e blue if within tropical storm force 34kt or 32mph 153 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual e yellow if within 50kt or 58mph e redif within hurricane force 64kt or 74mph In the Day Night column the hours in daylight and dark are noted respectively as yellow or blue 154 Glossary A actual track A line created from multiple advisories by connecting the storm center s initial position at each old advisory Also referred to as the past track advisory A collection of various forecast products issued by the tropical cyclone forecast center on a single storm at a single point in time Advisory packages are sequentially numbered and typically issued at 6 hour intervals Additional advisories intermediate A and sometimes A and B are issued whenever watches or warnings are in effect AHPS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service a National Weather Service clearinghouse for various water forecasts and flood warnings basins Oceanographic regions used to describe the general locations of tropical systems Hurrevac2010 organizes tropical systems into the following basins Atlantic East Pacific Central Pacific West Pacific and North Indian Ocean and South Pacific and South Indian Ocean basins SLOSH Local coastal regions delineated and mapped for storm surge modeling SLOSH closest point of appro
59. ac2010 s Setup Form Hurrevac Setup Form State Plug Ins Connection Settings Download Schedule Local Defaults Timeline Time Zone LIST DEFAULTS Choose LOCAL Counties Parishes of interest to you These will be used with the various Reports Analysis lists to LIMIT scans to ONLY those you are interested in if you select the Local option on the list panel STATE selections Louisiana COUNTIES PARISHES Select Alabama 0 Acadia American Samoa 0 Allen Check All This State Arizona 0 Arkansas 0 enn i Clear All This State Bermuda 0 Iv Assumption Clear All This State California 0 Avoyelles Connecticut 0 Beauregard Delaware 0 Bienville Florida 0 Bossier Georgia 0 Caddo Hawaii 0 Calcasieu ede Cav E Cameron Maine 0 Catahoula Maryland 0 Claibome Massachusetts 0 Concordia Mississippi 0 Nevada 0 DeSoto On this Setup tab mark the counties parishes of interest to you Many of HURREVAC s reports contain information on a large number of localities Specifying a local area of interest will give you the ability to limit the report size if desired 90 Other Forms Timeline Timeline items are configured in Hurrevac2010 s Setup Form Hurrevac Setup Form State Plug Ins Connection Settings Download Schedule Local Defaults Timeline Time Zone The Timeline feature allows you to specify actions
60. ach This refers to the calculation by HURREVAC of the direction distance and time at which the storm will pass closest by a specified county CPA calculations are based upon the official NHC forecast track The parameters for your county are presumably near their peak at the Closest Point of Approach CPHC Central Pacific Hurricane Center This National Weather Service office located in Honolulu Hawaii is responsible for tropical cyclone forecasts from 140 to 180 degrees West It is the source of Central Pacific advisory data in HURREVAC D decision time The last possible time at which a decision to evacuate or not can be made and still allow sufficient time to complete the evacuation before tropical storm winds begin deterministic forecast A forecast presenting a single best guess estimate without any representation of the likelihood of that outcome The NHC s forecast advisory is deterministic direct hit Scenario in which the storm center passes directly over the area specified HURREVAC takes a straight line direct hit approach to evacuation decision timing That is from the time the advisory is issued the storm is assumed to head straight for your county using the forecast speed from the NHC direct to point see direct hit definition 155 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual E evacuation clearance time The amount of time number of hours it takes to move a vulnerable population to safety Hurricane Evacuation Studies deterni
61. ain Rivers Tide Gages STORM FEATURES cn ANNOTATION x sS 1 2 a Ie pt REPORTS H BROWSERS UTILITIES NWS Forecast Peak Stages gt 5 5 Below FS Minor Flood Mod Flood Major Flood River gages are best displayed on the map when zoomed in to a state wide or tighter view The gages appear as circles of different sizes and colors depending on the data available size and state and 63 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual trend of the river colors as shown below The legend at the bottom of the screen display explains which circle colors represent river stage and which circle border colors represent the river trend Circle size indicates data available e Gages represented by a small white circle have only OLD or OUTDATED data or no data e Gages with a medium size colored circle have recent data but ONLY OBSERVATIONS and no forecast river conditions Typically the observations go back 36 hours from the time of the most recent data e Gages with a large size colored circle have recent data including BOTH OBSERVATIONS and FORECASTS Typically the observations go back 36 hours from the time of the most recent data and the forecasts go forward in 6 hourly increments to 120 hours or 5 days Circle colors indicates river stage e Green for gt 5 feet below flood stage e Blue for below flood stage e Yellow for Minor Flood e Red for Moderate Flood e Purple for Major Flood Circle border colors
62. ain helpful static information on defined flood levels historical crests flood impact statements and inundation maps Coastal Tide and Storm Surge Tools The Tide Gage Browser should be used to consider tidal fluctuations and storm surge potential To access coastal tide stations select the Tide Gages heading of the Current data tab The latest gage information will be downloaded from the Internet as you turn this on for the first time Click on a station on the map to display the tide chart of predicted astronomical and observed tide levels Depending on the storm size location and other factors differences between the two tide values can begin to show up well in advance of the approaching storm The Tide Gage Browser also contains several SLOSH Display tools for determining potential storm surge under various direct hit scenarios 17 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Archives t Working with Archive Storms Favorites Want to simulate live hurricane tracking or review storm that bo EUR impacted your area in the past In addition to its live tracking d anion capabilities Hurrevac2010 is a useful tool for evaluating historical and hypothetical storms When viewing and analyzing storms from the Archives Tab you will have access to all of the same STORM ga 2003 FEATURES ANNOTATION and REPORTS functions employed when iat 2008 tracking a live storm ga 2007 amp 2006 Your installation o
63. ake is to completely clear the map display of wind tags To do this go to ANNOTATION Wind Tags Delete All 2 Next right click on the map coastal location within the projected path of the storm Repeat this step in other areas within the projected path to add a number of wind tags to the left and right of the forecast track If needed you can delete select tags with ANNOTATION Wind Tags Delete Tag 3 Advance the storm along its forecast track or actual track if viewing an old advisory Wind tag direction is influenced even when the storm is still distant However wind tag speed only displays when the storm is directly over head 36 Annotation Range Marks Range Marks are an ANNOTATION item accessed in the Toolbox and through right clicking on the map Range marks can be a P dace wh B useful way of illustrating Va 2124 ann how far away the storm is Zoom To Selected Storm from a location of Select Nearest Advisory interest Annotate Text Here Working with range Move Nearest Text Here marks Delete Nearest Text Range marks are toggled gt Delete ALL Text on and off with the Range Marks check box Place WindTag Here under the ANNOTATION Remove Nearest WindTag heading of the Toolbox Look just below this check box for access to the setup form Options on the setup form include Wind Details This Location e Mileage Type Statute or Nautical miles e Interval or miles or knots
64. al cyclones but is of special interest in the 24 48 hours prior to storm landfall Inland Flood Tools Save Rain The River Flood Outlook located under the Rain heading of the D Rivers Current data tab and as a Rain List under the Reports heading and m 3 day Quantitative Rainfall Forecast located under the Rivers Flood River Gages Outlook heading of the Current data tab provide generalized Flood Outlook guidance on possible inland flooding threats Save Rivers 2 EH Tide Gages In order to display the latest rainfall and flood information in i Save Tides Hurrevac2010 you must have the program s Download Schedule set to Automatic Status Check or have clicked Update Now on the Monitoring Ribbon You can confirm the date and time of the currently displayed forecast by checking the contents of the white banner that appears across the bottom of the tracking map The River Gage Browser should be used to consider potential flood scenarios surrounding specific rivers gage locations To display inland river gages select the Rivers River Gages heading of the Current data tab The latest gage information will be downloaded from the Internet as you turn this on for the first time With the gage locations displayed on the map zoom in and click on a single gage of interest to view a chart of water levels over time In addition to observed and forecasted river levels charts for many gages cont
65. amatically as the forecast goes to Day 2 and especially Day 3 Always check with your local Weather Service office for the latest updates on the rainfall situation and the latest river stages These forecasts are constantly being revised and the HPC forecast shown in HURREVAC can be several hours old 56 Reports River Flood Outlook The National River Flood Outlook is one of several Other Forecast Data products that can be helpful to consider when weighing the flooding threat from an approaching storm This information is displayed on the map when the Rivers Flood Outlook heading is checked under the Current data tab Map View HPC the National Weather Service Hydro Meteorological Prediction Center issues a 5 day forecast of freshwater flooding hazards for the continental US using more specific forecasts for each flood basin provided by several regional NWS River Forecast Centers RFCs around the country These outlooks are currently issued once a day around 21Z or 5PM Eastern Daylight Time TH oe B SE 55 Bunte ERE E pue atk po i ps ELE LS Sis 18 Bia rome LAM eS aH aoe den RASA In Ou Eum Le NWS River Flood Outlook 1045 09 202 Li The Flood Outlook takes the form of polygon regions that are color coded according to the likelihood of flooding The categories are defined as follows e Occurring Imminent red Significant flooding is already occ
66. ame as for the gage reading and forecast colors When amounts are shown the amounts are BASIN AVERAGE That is the amounts are averaged over the basin above the gage shown So for instance if a heavy thunderstorm dumped 3 inches over a small area in the basin above the gage the average rainfall spread over the entire basin may be only a few hundredths of an inch The same goes for the forecast amounts If scattered heavy thunderstorms are forecast they may only produce a few hundredths or tenths of an inch over the entire basin On the right side of the browser are buttons for controlling the graph display The Up Button adjusts the graph scale upward to allow view of Flood Moderate Flood and Major Flood levels The Down Button adjusts the graph scale downward to allow viewing of smaller fluctuations Other Information available in the browser e Impacts statements Impacts button from the USGS describe the effects from past floods of various levels e Historical crests and lows Crests button from the USGS with high and low water observations from the past e River Gage Map shows the area around the gage that would be inundated by a 100 year flood and by a 500 year flood NOTE The Map button appears only when the state gage maps are installed and a gage map is available for that specific gage 65 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Tide Gage The Tide Gage Browser is accessed from the BROWSER heading of Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox
67. anagement Coordinates and Measurement PRISES c s aj Log Lat Lon Lat Lon Bearing 23 52 84 9 26 87 82 41 37 deg en Nautical Statute Segment Length miles 243 280 i 243 280 Total Distance miles EXIT Click once to start end segment Right Click to finish Floyd1999 East Pac Cent Pac West Pac amp 10 South Pac amp 10 2008 a Atlantic East Pac x STORM FEATURES ANNOTATION REPORTS BROWSERS Clearance ff River Gage Tide Gage Cootdnates Measuemert UTILITIES we Cele 85 lei 6 61 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Surge Maps The Surge Maps Browser is accessed from the BROWSER heading of Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox This browser can be used to view the raster based maps from the old Hurrevac2000 program The maps vary from one HES region to the next but typically represent local surge patterns evacuation zones routes etc IMPORTANT NOTE You must have one or more Inundation Map State Plug ins installed in order to have access to any files Hurrevac2010 Graphics Viewer C Program Files Hurrevac2010 maps DE003S01 PNG DE003501 PNG DE New Castle v fen lt a 15 4 Ex CASTLE DELAMARE SLOSH MOM SURGES NEWCASTLE A fe 1218 12 812 PANEL 1 OF 3 LL UO 62
68. and be sure to drop the storm category to a realistic intensity Exercise Track Creation Wizard Step 3 Step 3 Adjust advisory positions to create desired track of storm and Advisory 9 of 9 01 03 00 03 LST 04 LDT enter storm strength Saffir Simpson Category at each position The advisories needed during the time frame you specified are shown on the map They are spaced along a straight line track at 6 hourly intervals You may adjust track as desired LAT 389 LON 778 SS CAT 0 J To adjust the track use the buttons on this panel to move between advisories The ACTIVE Implied Motion 55 k 54 mph advisory position will be shown as a point with a circle around it LEFT CLICK on the map where mplied Motion nots or 54 mpl you want the new position to be Set the SS Category for position then move to next advisory When finished with all advisories Cancel Wizard lt Previous Step Next Step gt In this step modify the forecast track of each advisory as desired The wizard creates forecast tracks that are very similar in intensity and speed to the later advisory positions It positions 83 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual the track slightly to the left Exercise Track Creation Wizard Step 4 Step 4 Adjust FORECAST positions at each advisory to create desired threat Advisory 1 of 9 00 01 00 03 LST 04 LDT To adjust the FORECAST positions use the buttons on this panel to move between advisories N
69. and other data coming from HURREVAC s Internet site Refer to the Download Schedule and Connection Settings for setup information 9 HURREVAC 2010 Version 1 0 309 Hurricane Decision Support for Emergency Management DER i E Setup E Update Now 11 54 52 PM files downloaded status unchanged By Loo Items on the ribbon are as follows from left to right Setup Access to Hurrevac s Setup Form Update Now Used to IMMEDIATELY check for and download any new data Download Progress Bar Blue bars in this window indicate that a download is in progress Window remains empty otherwise Status Report Window If Auto Monitoring is turned on the status report window will alternately show either the status of the last check for new data or the countdown to the next one The window will flash when new data has been downloaded and stop flashing once you have acknowledged the alert by clicking on the program window Print Button Access to Hurrevac s Printing options Collapse Expand Buttons To switch between Full Program display and Ribbon Only display Analysis Reports Button To access the Analysis Reports Selection form Log To see a text log of recent monitoring and download activity Check Signals that you have the latest version of Hurrevac2010 installed and changes to an exclamation mark if a later version is available You can click on the mark for details Help To access
70. ane occuring after July 4 week before Labor Day Weekend or local special event Are there any special events or holiday weekend Red Hurricane occurring within 1 3 considerations in evacuation planning week of July 4 or Labor Day average forecast error cone Yellow Treasure Coast E ast 3 W Apala NCent NE Withla ECent Cent Central Northeast West TPABay TreaCst Green Withlacoochee North Central Apalachee 116 Hurricane Risk Profile 5tate for Florida Tropical Cyclone IDA Advisory 21 Date Time SUN 11 08 09 22 EST E One Way Concems Indicator Level AY Critical Of Concem J me Is the hurricane forecast to be a Category 4 or 5 now or forecast Cat 4 5 E within 72 hrs or before landfall Forecast Cat3 BUT at least 48 Forecast Cat 2 hours away so could intensify Forecast only Cat 1 2 Are Southeast Southwest Tampa Bay Northeast Y es entire RPC region or more or West in 72 hr hurricane Wind Swath than one region West partial Y es one region is partially in hurricane wind swath None of the regions are in hurricane wind swath Are there enough hours left before tropical storm Red Yes Atleast 37 hours winds to prepare and execute the One Way option Yellow Maybe if storm slows 30 to 36 in Florida hrs 19 hrs left till TS winds at 11 09 09 5 PM Green unless storm slows Are there at least 12 continuous hours of daylight Yes At least 12 daylig
71. at 4 Current Location O Forecast Positions Potential Track Area 30 Annotation ANNOTATION is a heading within Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox It is comprised of various map labeling options Certain annotation options can also be accessed with a right click on the map Available Annotations e Storm Info Box Advisory Labels e Custom Annotation e Wind Tags e Range Marks e Disclaimers e City Names e Lat Lon Hacks STORM FEATURES C E a E E T ANNOTATION 8 Storm Info Box Advisory Labels amp 7 Custom Annotation amp Wind Tags amp Range Marks Disclaimers Show City Names C Lat Lon Hacks REPORTS BROWSERS UTILITIES 31 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Storm Info Box The Storm Information Box is an ANNOTATION item By default storm information is displayed in the form of a banner across the top of the tracking map Information included in this banner is storm name and advisory number date and time of the storm s currently displayed position latitude and longitude of the storm s currently displayed position maximum winds and forward speed TW zt is Katrina 264 08 29 05 EDT 29 41 N 88 5 Wind 145mph Cat 4 E Another option is to place a larger information box with legend included on the map at either upper left upper right lower right or lower left of the screen This is the type of display re
72. ation until a storm very close to 2 surge flooding while a neap tide could mitigate 3 landfall since only 6 hours of time separate high and low tides 4 Is this a large powerful storm capable of generating large amounts of storm surge Storms with sizeable hurricane force wind fields have the power to push greater amounts of storm surge ahead of them 141 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual State and Local Summaries For more information on summaries see the description under the general Risk Profile section Risk Profile Summary State for New York Tropical Cyclone E amp RL Advisory 30 Date Time WED 08 01 1017 EDT Indicator Level yi Critical D of Concem Risk Of Impact EvacConsideratons Surge Hood R Y G Cr 12345 6 123 45 6 123 4 A D 5 4 114 1 bx 4 1153 71 3 b 4 113 1 4 4 123 1 4753 3223 bow 14722771 42 3 13 221 42 14 2 1 122 2 2 27540132221 142 Special Tools Risk Profile Summary Local for NYC Metro County NY Tropical Cyclone E amp RL Advisory 30 Date Time WED 03 01 10 17 EDT Indicator Level yi Critical D of Concern Risk Of Impact Evac Consideratons Surge Hood Y G Cr of 123455 12345 6 7 123 4 D 4 4 13 3 QU 4 4 133 0 294 4 3 143 0 3 3 153 0 3 4 1431 3 3 0 nj gt 34 113 Q0 4 3 143 0 4 3 13 0 2 16 3 0 2 B5 3 7630 n3 Ta 143 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Facilities Timing
73. ave a next to their description while criteria designated as of Concern will have a next to their description below Critical and of Concern indicators are also referred to as Tier 1 and Tier 2 indicators respectively 132 Special Tools State and Local Topics Topic A Risk of Impact The overall purpose of the Risk of Impact topic is to define the area at risk and quantify the degree of risk to that area Examples of state and local output for this topic are shown here The same 6 criteria are used in both the state and local scopes See below the screen shots for notes describing each criterion and its specific purpose Hurricane Risk Profile State for New York Tropical Cyclone EARL Advisory 30 Date Time WED 09 01 10 17 EDT A Risk Of Impact Indicator Level AY Critical Of Concem Dies oae 1 120 hour average forecast error cone Yellow Within 72 hours In 48 hr error ellipse Green gt 72 hours or not in error cone Are NHC Watches or Warnings in effect anywhere Red Hurricane Warning 2 from Manasquan NJ to Port Jefferson Harbor NY Yellow TS Warning or Hurricane Watch Tropical Storm Warning Green TS Watch or none Highest coastline NHC 64kt wind probability from Red Greater than 18 3 Atlantic City NJ to Montauk Point Yellow 11 to 18 7 for B4kt 22 for 53 for 34kt Green Less than 11 Increase or decrease of maximum probability since Red Increased in
74. cane Risk Profile Local for Santa Rosa County FL Tropical Cyclone IDA C Evacuation Charactenstics 1 114 Is the forward speed of the storm forecast to increase decrease or stay same Decrease 2 to average 15 mph before Number of hours until onset of tropical storm force winds 39 mph in county based on the forecast track 13 hrs Greatest clearance time for county based on the maximum forecast intensity as adjusted in Topic B hrs for Cat 3 Medium Occ Medium Resp Forecast Track CPA Decision Time for this county if within the 72 hour wind swath Item 1 minus Item 2 10 hrs 11 09 09 7 AM Assuming a Direct Hit track what is the Decision Time for this county S hrs 11 09 09 6 4M Period of day when Decision Time for your county occurs Mon Advisory 21 Date Time SUN 11 08 09 22 EST Indicator Level Critical Of Concem J me J 8 Y 8j Red Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Increase Remain same Decrease Within 24 hours Between 24 and 36 hours Greater than 36 hours or none Greater than 24 hours Between 12 and 24 hours Less than 12 hours Decision time has passed 12 hours or less to decision time Greater than 12 hours to decision time Decision time has passed 12 hours or less to decision time Greater than 12 hours to decision time 11
75. case After the surge arrival time is determined from the SLOSH model offset the program then subtracts the combined times for mobilization evacuation and closure to arrive at a proper decision time Start of 34kt winds Mobilization e Fre arrival DECISION TIME CLOSURE TIME and start of flooding hazards for facility with offset for storm surge ahead of eye arrival Mobilization Evacuation Closure Total Clearance Time 145 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Presentation of Facilities Data The primary presentation of facilities data is within the Facilities Timing Details report which calculates start times for mobilization evacuation and closure of each facility This report contains special filtering data export and other facilities related options that are not available elsewhere in HURREVAC You can also generate a standard Evacuation Timing Single Location report on a facility This report consists of an hour by hour timeline of actions with the start of the mobilization evacuation and closure periods noted It also indicates daytime and nighttime along the timeline 146 Special Tools Facility Timing Details Facility Timing Details is the main report of Hurrevac2010 s special Facilities Timing toolset for the New York City metropolitan area It is accessed through the Analysis Reports Selection panel and the resulting report is based upon whatever storm advisory is currently displayed in the Map View
76. cast peak wind in Virginia based on the 72 hr Hurricane Force winds forecast track Yellow Between 58 and 74mph mph in Southampton Green Less than 58mph coastline Yellow 141 180 degs 4 to o clock is Evacuation Characteristics Other Considerations One Way Concerns Resources How a Risk Profile Works A Risk Profile is customized for an individual state using a series of criteria questions and conditions possible answers identified by emergency managers in that state as most relevant The Risk Profile extracts the required information from the main HURREVAC program and presents it in a series of tables For each criterion a color coded box red yellow or green highlights the severity of the condition When certain criteria reach either a yellow or a red condition they are flagged to give special notice to their importance in the evacuation decision making process AX The Critical Indicator is a yellow triangle with an exclamation mark inside This means that you should carefully consider the condition of this criterion It is an important indication of a threat and is a critical one to consider 1 The Indicator of Concern is a white circle with an exclamation mark inside This means that the condition of the criterion is important but not quite at the critical level and should be monitored closely 04 Special Tools The intention is to lead the emergency mana
77. ce computer software tool for government emergency managers The program tracks hurricanes using the National Weather Service s National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory product and combines this information with data from the various state Hurricane Evacuation Studies HES to assist local emergency managers in determining a proper evacuation decision time and the arrival time of various storm effects such as wind and storm surge HURREVAC is a joint program of the Federal Emergency Management Agency FEMA and the U S Army Corps of Engineers USACE Sea Island Software is the private contractor tasked with development operation and maintenance of the HURREVAC program The USACE Baltimore District office Hurricane Program Office under the National Center of Expertise for Coastal Storm Damage Reduction administers the contract with funding and guidance from FEMA Hurrevac2010 is the latest platform for HURREVAC so named for its initial release in the year 2010 What s New in Hurrevac2010 Hurrevac2010 is a major new release of HURREVAC The software has been rewritten several times since the program s beginning in 1988 in order to stay current with Windows operating systems and standards in information technology Along the way the annual Season Versions have also presented numerous enhancements and new features Hurrevac2010 duplicates the functionality of Hurrevac2000 the most recent version of the program and is intended as a c
78. ck on the desired storm name Select Copy to Favorites Storms Folder from the options that appear next to your cursor Favorites should also be employed if you wish to show storms from different years on the tracking map simultaneously Your Favorites selections will be retained upon exit of the program To remove a storm simply right click on its name under the Favorites heading and choose Remove from Favorites Folder The Exercise heading is populated with STM files that are located in a special ExerciseSTMFiles data directory Most often these are hypothetical storms created using the Exercise Track Wizard You can also use UTILITIES Export Import Import Plot stm to place a copy of an actual STM file in this directory and then manually alter the parameters of this storm using the Storm Data Entry Utility to create a slightly different storm scenario The Historical Plots heading is for viewing storms prior to 1994 from the NHC s Historical Track Database Storms from this database are simply plotted by 6 hourly center locations These historical tracks do not contain the wind extent or forecast information as the STM files do and therefore cannot Using HURREVAC be manipulated and analyzed to the extent that the STM file based storms can Instead use the Historical Scan Utility to query this database Storm Features Storm Features are options for how forecast information associated with a particular storm advisory is di
79. cks that you do not wish to display or press the Mark All or Clear All buttons to affect all items in the list Set Display Options and then press the Display Tracks button to plot selected tracks from the Results list on the main map Advisory 73 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual NOTE The historical database is maintained by the forecasters and researchers at the National Hurricane Center and represents Best Track and intensity estimates of tropical cyclones as determined in a post analysis of all available data Early storm tracks should not be regarded as having the same degree of accuracy as recent ones Please refer to documentation from the NHC for a discussion of these limitations to the database 74 Utilities Map Defaults Set Map Defaults is an option under the UTILITIES heading of Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox Use this utility to set your preferences for a Default FULL SIZE Map and a Default LOCAL Map Your selections will be saved upon exit of the program You can easily access these maps through left and right clicks to the Globe button near the top of the Map Toolbar Set Default Maps clicking on the buttons below you can set your Default Full Size and Default Local Maps to the CURRENTLY DISPLAYED Storm Map Set Default FULL SIZE Map to current display Set Default LOCAL Map to current display You can EASILY ACCESS these maps by clicking on the icon which is shown at the TOP OF THE TOOLBA
80. closure to arrive at a proper decision time 144 Special Tools Start of tropical storm force 34kt winds at Mobilization ground level DECISION TIME CLOSURE TIME and start of Mobilization Evacuation Closure Total Clearance Time wind hazards for facility with high elevation offset Note Certain facilities affected primarily by RAINFALL flooding are placed in the Wind Affected Facilities category because wind and rainfall will begin at about the same time Surge Affected Facilities These facilities are affected first by flooding specifically flooding from storm surge as determined by the National Weather Service SLOSH model which predicts flooding that would occur assuming a direct hit or worst case assumption The SLOSH model data results in an offset time in hours before the arrival of the eye when flooding would commence at the facility This may range from 0 hours flooding arrives only when eye arrives or as much as 7 hours before the eye for a severe storm approaching from a critical direction This offset is based on the location and elevation of the facility In most cases the flood affected facilities will have much later decision times than the wind affected ones Therefore with surge affected facilities HURREVAC first computes the direct hit arrival time of the storm s eye or center in the area and subtracts the pre landfall flooding time in hours as determined by the SLOSH model for the worst
81. commended for briefing purposes since it is visible from a distance 32 Ee Hurricane Katrina August 29 2005 7 AM EDT Monday CurrentLocation 29 1 N 89 6 W Max Sustained Wind 145 mph Current Movement 15 mph Q Current Location Forecast Positions CN Potential Track Area Annotation 33 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Advisory Labels P Advisory Labels are an ANNOTATION item Advisory labels appear as text tags along the track of a j single storm and can be toggled on and off using the AN Mon 8 PM 100mp Advisory Labels check box under the ANNOTATION heading of the Toolbox Look just below this check 4 box for access to the Storm Labels Setup form Options on the setup form include TS Si e Label Text Advisory Number Day of Week j 1 Date Time Max Wind S S Category Pressure 52 Forward Speed e Label Which Points Forecast Points Past Mon 2 AM 160mph SSCat 5 Advisories 1 e Plot Interval from 6 72 Hours e Font Type Regular or Bold e Speed In MPH or Knots A Label Button on the Map Toolbar will also toggle labels on off with a left click Right click for Label Setup Working with Advisory Labels HURREVAC attempts to place as many labels on the storm track as possible without overcrowding At distant zoom levels some of your labels may disappear because the interval you ve selected is too high to fit them all within the view Try using a larger interval 36 hours
82. d by counties affected first Time of Peak heading To sort by other item click on its heading once for ascending order twice for descending order Additionally the list may be filtered for Locals Only If you have downloaded an advisory update or switched the map display to a different advisory use the Refresh button to rerun the analysis based upon the changed forecast information 43 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual To print or export the report s data to a file click the Print button on the Monitoring Ribbon at the top of the program 44 Reports Wind Decay Report The Wind Decay Report is accessed from the REPORTS heading of Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox This report formerly referred to as the MEOW or Maximum Envelope of Winds describes the maximum distance certain categories of wind can penetrate inland given the storm strength and forward speed These wind decay models are particularly important for determining winds over areas far inland from the coastline and for planning purposes In the last few hours before landfall the specific NHC Wind Swath and Wind Timing Report should be used instead of the wind decay models Advisory Report 0 report for Hurricane Katrina Based on Advisory 22 Issued 08 28 05 8AM EDT OLD Advisory Wind Decay Affected List GULF Wind 144mph Motion 20mph 32 Items Location Category of Wind Implied by MEOW i gt 095 knots 109mph and 110 knots 127mph O9m
83. d there be greater risk due to the direction from which the storm is approaching As a general rule storms having a more perpendicular angle of approach to the Northeast coastline carry greater risk than Approaches 120 160 degrees 4 to 5 o clock Approaches 161 199 degrees 5 to 7 o clock Special Tools those that curve along and parallel the East Coast The reason for this is that a paralleling storm is more likely to first make landfall elsewhere therefore diminishing its intensity before reaching the New York area 6 How high are the winds estimated to get in this area Focus on this criterion and its specific wind forecasts only when a storm is close and threatening 48 hours or less A storm s precise track and intensity over a longer period has a high degree of uncertainty Topic B Storm Intensity The purpose of this topic is to give guidance on what intensity storm category the storm may have when it impacts the area Storm category is used for determining the type and extent of evacuation should one be needed The higher the storm category the greater the vulnerable population and longer the evacuation time Screen shots of state and local output for this topic are shown here The same 4 criteria apply to both the state and local scopes See below for notes describing each criterion and its specific purpose Hurricane Risk Profile State for New York Tropical Cyclone EARL Advisory 30 Date Time WED
84. dewater Bay EShore a B Forecast Error Cone Heavy coastal evacuation Yellow Central traffic likely Green Western 21 Coast Central 128 Special Tools Hurricane Risk Profile State for Virginia Tropical Cyclone Advisory 34 Date Time FRI 09 05 08 05 EDT E One Way Concems Indicator Level AY Critical Of Concem Ciera 1 Forecast Error Cone Yellow Central 2 Coast Central Green Western Is the hurricane forecast to be Category 4 or 5 Red l snow or forecast Cat4 5 B 2 within 72 hrs or before landfall Yellow Forecast Cat3 BUT gt 48 hrs Forecast Cat 1 or less away so could intensify A Green Forecast only Cat 1 2 Are there enough hours left before Trop Storm Red Yes At least 48 hours 3 Winds to prepare and execute the 1 64 Lane Yellow Maybe if storm slows 36 to 47 Reversal Option hrs 19 hrs left till TS Winds at 09 06 0812 AM Green No unless storm slows Are there at least 12 continuous hours of daylight Red Atleast 12 daylight hrs after E 4 after 24 hour mobilization and setup time setup not enough time for Setup Yellow Almost 9 to 11 hours Green No 8 or less hours 129 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual State and Local Summaries Risk Profile Summary State for Virginia Tropical Cyclone HANNA Advisory 34 Date Time FRI 09 05 08 05 EDT Indicator Level Critical of Concern Risk Storm Intensity Evacuation Charac Y
85. ding once for ascending order twice for descending order There is no timing involved with this report just the strength of winds that could occur in an area given a perfect strike on the area at a selected storm strength and selected forward speed Each row of the tabular report is colored according to the wind intensity blue if tropical storm force 34kt or 39mph yellow if 50kt or 58mph and red if hurricane force 64kt or 74mph To print or export the report s data to a file click the Print button on the Monitoring Ribbon at the top of the program Map Display Model information can also be displayed on the tracking map by selecting Wind Decay Graphic from the REPORTS heading of the Toolbox A legend appears across the top of the map identifying the wind categories Advisory Decay Model Maximum Envelope Of Wind Gulf Coast Approach 125kt 144mph Forward Speed 17kt 20mph gt 34Kt 39mph 50kKt 58mph b54Kt 74mph gt B80Kt 92mph 95Kt 1 09mph 2110kt 127mph gt sir moli 2 lt ollk Background Information The NHC Wind Decay Model DeMaria and Kaplan 1996 predicts how far inland certain categories of wind will penetrate assuming a a direct hit b specified maximum sustained winds of the storm and C specified forward speed of the storm There are 3 regions which were computed in the decay model necessitated by the different behavior of storms
86. disappear from the display once a storm is advanced beyond forecast hour 72 This occurs because the Hurricane Centers do not make wind extent forecast data available beyond the 72 hour point The Hourly Wind Ranges button at the edge of the map view toggles the view between open circles rings filled circles colors and no display Left click to turn the display on and off Right click to change the display type These operations are also duplicated in the Toolbox under the STORM FEATURES Hourly Wind Ranges heading 21 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual 72 Hr Wind Swath The 72 Hr Wind Swath is a composite of wind ranges along the 72 hour forecast period The fill colors represent the extent of tropical storm force winds 34kt or 39mph in blue 50kt or 58mph winds in yellow and hurricane force 64kt or 74mph winds in red This storm feature should be utilized only when the storm is close It is a specific forecast subject to error and should be given credence only with the last few advisories before landfall On the mainland US the NHC will use a specific version of the MEOW wind Decay Model to prepare this forecast when the storm is forecast to landfall See the Wind Overforecasting Disclaimer help topic for discussion of another important caveat of this display You can use the companion Wind Timing All Locations Report for finding out which counties are affected and by how much 22 Storm Features
87. e Centered At a specified Lat Lon or a point clicked on the map Another method of quickly configuring range marks is to right click on the map and select Center Range Marks Here from the pop up menu 37 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Disclaimers Disclaimers are an ANNOTATION item Map Advisoy National Hurricane Center Disclaimer Vind Range Contours show the maximum extent of winds expected each quadrant Users are cautioned that winds vary greatly within each quadrant For quadrants extending over land and water over water values are used which may make the extent of inland wind radii appear unrealistically large ZG The following disclaimer from the NHC will appear as a banner across the top of the map when Disclaimers is checked under the ANNOTATION heading of the Toolbox National Hurricane Center Disclaimer Wind Range Contours show the maximum extent of winds expected in each quadrant Users are cautioned that winds vary greatly within each quadrant For quadrants extending over land and water over water values are used which may make the extent of inland winds radii appear unrealistically large About Wind Over Forecasting Over forecasting of wind occurs in certain situations with land falling and closely paralleling storms due to limitations in the level of detail provided on wind ranges in the forecast advisory Hurrevac strictly uses the wind ranges specified by NHC CPHC or JTWC
88. e phases Exceptions are the transit agencies with concerns about redirecting resources transit cars and buses 2 Evacuation Period Time frame during which a facility will function to move evacuees Commuter transit facilities will function like they do in a heavy PM peak period highway facilities will carry evacuation traffic over time periods defined in the regional HES 3 Closure Period Amount of time needed to secure and close facilities and redirect employees to safe shelter before hazards arrive A facility s clearance time is the sum total of the mobilization evacuation and closure times Wind versus Surge Timed Facilities In calculating the hazard arrival time for facilities HURREVAC must differentiate between two types of facilities Wind Affected Facilities These facilities are affected primarily by wind hazards specifically 34 knot 39mph winds of an approaching storm and treated much the same as county evacuation timing in HURREVAC For tall facilities such as bridges however an offset also known as pre landfall hazard time of 1 2 or 3 hours is placed in front of ground forecasted 34 knot wind arrival time to account for the fact that winds are routinely stronger at these high altitudes and the storm effects will be felt sooner Therefore with wind affected facilities HURREVAC computes the direct hit arrival time of 34 knot winds to the facility and subtracts the combined times for mobilization evacuation and
89. e the capability to display highly detailed local maps of features such as surge zones evacuation routes shelter locations etc Better Help system Help menu is easier to navigate and the help documentation is more robust Getting Started Resources Hurrevac2010 includes a comprehensive help system that is installed along with the program The help system s Using HURREVAC walk through of program basics is a good place for new users to begin Searchable topics are available for in depth research A print formatted PDF version is located on the support site at http www hurrevac com guides htm Technical Support HURREVAC users have year round access to 24 7 technical support from Sea Island Software developer of the program Users should register for the program and submit questions through the support site at www hurrevac com Routine website contacts and e mails to support hurrevac com are answered within one business day Issues related to developing storms and other time critical user needs are addressed immediately even if outside of normal business hours Sea Island Software maintains a toll free support phone line at 888 840 4089 Support calls are answered 24 7 during storm events Getting Started Program Distribution HURREVAC has been widely adopted in federal state and local government emergency management The program has more than 9 500 registered users however in actual practice there are likely two
90. e usual manner If you change advisories or receive a live advisory update this mode is canceled and the original track restored Direct Hit This option allows one to see the effects timing when the storm is moved along a direct hit track to a specified county The track is then laid out in the direction of the specified county using the forecast forward speed for the 120 hours ahead This is the track used by HURREVAC to make Evacuation Decision Timing calculations KATRINA 17 August 27 2005 11 amp MEDT Sat CurrentLocation 24 5 N 85 0 Vv 115 mph Cat 3 Movg 7 mph ALTERNATE TRACK DIRECT HIT to New Orleans projects wind arrival 4 hours earlier than forecasted curved track Average Error RIGHT This option allows one to see the effects timing when the storm is moved at an angle to the RIGHT equivalent to average error Note this does not necessarily coincide with the average error swath right edge That could not be used because average error occasionally is circular when the storm is moving slow and the size of the error simply enlarges in place Average Error LEFT This option allows one to see the effects timing when the storm is moved at an angle to the LEFT equivalent to average error Note This does not necessarily coincide with the average error swath left edge That could not be used because average error occasionally is circular when the storm is moving slow and the size of the error simply enlarges in place
91. ed by a special condition on the ground but generally speaking the HES clearance times should be used as is with greater consideration given to the storm category selection Note Any adjustments made in the Facilities Options will be retained during this program session After the user exits the program all adjustments will be lost 151 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Storm Category Selection 09 03 O7E 2 5 gt Storm category is important consideration in facility decision times HURREVAC selects the default storm category based on the highest winds predicted over the 72 hour forecast period however if the maximum wind is within 5 knots of the next Saffir Simpson category HURREVAC increases the default selection by one storm category as insurance Tip New York locations considering the threat from a Cat 4 or 5 storm still well south may want to drop the storm category because the storm is forecast to be much less intense once over the cooler waters of the Northeast For example after consulting with your local NWS office you might opt to select CAT 2 user selected from the list below where CAT 4 NHC forecast was the default for an intense storm still sitting off the coast of Florida CAT 4 NHC forecast v CAT 1 user selected CAT 2 user selected CAT 3 user selected CAT 4 NHC 5 user selected Press the Refresh button to update the facility report for this advisory Note New advisories will r
92. eling is available for a gage the location will be marked on the map with an S Click on the gage to display its tide chart then click on the SLOSH button next to the NOAA logo in the tide chart The SLOSH based storm tide guidance amounts will be displayed as red circles above the tide table heights on the right side of the graph The amounts are the result of tide table heights plus the SLOSH surge guidance values You can check the individual values at any point by clicking on the graph at the hour of your choice Underneath the graph in the box labeled Residual is the specific SLOSH value which is added to the Tide Table value to obtain the total Guidance storm tide level amount The box is labeled Guidance rather than forecast since the projection is based a specific landfall location which will be in error by some amount The Peak and Peak buttons at the bottom of the panel allow the user to adjust the arrival time of the Peak Surge forward or backward 6 hours in time The current setting of this adjustment is displayed on the graph in parentheses following the Peak surge adjustment explanation 2 Exercise mode for hypothetical MEOW MOM values TideGageForm SABINE PASS NORTH TX GagelD 8770570 152 LATEST 87 ft Mean Lower Low Wiater 2feetMSL 08 23 OF E Grey bands sre MEOW surge EXERCISE MOM Not a forecast H 2096 added to predicted tides 138 Cat 3 MOM Peak Surge 12 3 ft 94 50
93. er has installed a Hurricane Evacuation Study Times plug in containing risk profile information The Hurricane Evacuation Study plug ins for Florida Virginia and New York will activate Risk Profiles for those respective states The Risk Profile is accessed through the Analysis Reports Selection panel and the resulting report is based upon whatever storm advisory is currently displayed in the Map View Only standard reports are listed under the REPORTS heading of Hurrevac2010 s toolbox To access the Risk Profile you must use the tab to add a new report from the list below Ej Analysis Reports Selection Available Analysis Reports Risk Profile for A State Closest Approach Of Storm Center A Meaning Of Report Error Swath Affected List E A WE Evacuation Timing All Areas This report lists items that are deemed by State EM officials to represent important information to note Evacuation Timing Local Areas h dris sq hi ETT Evacuation Timing Single Location when considering risk from an approaching tropical cyclone Facility Timing Details Flood Outlook For All Affected Areas Rainfall For All Affected Areas Cautionary Notes EE This information is specific and subject to forecast error Storm Statistics Graph It is meant only to suggest some of the important items a Stom Statistics List which should be looked at before decision making Report Location The initial display
94. eriously consider evacuation at the Decision Time indicated Standard Available Reports e Storm Statistics e Error Swath e Wind Decay e Wind Timing e Evacuation Timing e Closest Approach e Rainfall e River Flood Outlook Special Reports The following reports will appear in the list only if special state specific tools are installed e Risk Profile e Facility Timing Details 40 Reports Storm Statistics Report The Storm Statistics Report is accessed from the REPORTS heading of Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox This report consists of past wind speed pressure and forward speed during the life of the storm to date and then forecast of wind speed and forward speed out to 120 hours Each row of the tabular report is colored according to the intensity of the storm at the time of that forecast hour or old advisory blue if tropical storm force 34kt or 39mph yellow if 50kt or 58mph red if hurricane force 64kt or 74mph Advisory Report for Hurricane Katrina Advisory 22 Issued 08 28 05 8AM EDT OLD Advisory Storm Statistics List Date Time Data From Lat Implied Speed Maximum Wind Pressure 08 23 05 17E Advisory 1 232N 755W 06 0 kt 06 3 mph 30 kt 35 mph 1007 mb gt The report s data is initially sorted by Date Time To sort by any other item click on its heading once for ascending order twice for descending order If you have downloaded an advisory update
95. erns Special Considerations Special Tools The Risk Profile is very much a weight of the evidence system designed to light up red when the user s region is threatened in a meaningful way There are no hard and fast rules for using the system but over time users will no doubt develop some rules of thumb such as a low number of green boxes on the Summary screen In looking for trends on the Summary screen keep in mind that certain criteria such as the One Way Concerns are designed to function more as timing indicators for starting a lane reversal option That is they move to red as the time for lane reversal setup is close and move back to green after the time has passed and the strategy can no longer be considered Thus while the other indicators may go to red and stay there as the storm approaches the One Way indicators on the State Summary screen will normally light up red only for one or two advisories around the time of One Way setup Resources The Resources list box at the bottom left highlights additional information both internal and external to HURREVAC that could be relevant to the local or state situation Making a selection in this box and then pressing GO will either launch a web page or open a Hurrevac2010 control DEM Web Site v Decision Arcs Inland Wind MEOW NHC Web Site NWS Wakefield VDEM VIPER VDEM Web Site Additional Tips To print or export the report s
96. erries Wind 09 01 22E 1 09 0300E 8 09 03 08 2 Pulaski Skyway Bridge 09 02 05E 3 09 03 6 09 03 07E 2 5 Pott Jefferson Dock 09 01 23E 1 09 03 01 8 09 03 09E 2 Orient Point Dock 09 02 00E 1 09 03 02 8 09 03 10 2 Hutchinson Avr Pkwy Pelham wind 09 02 12 3 09 03 03E 6 09 03 OSE 2 Cross BX Expwy White Plains Rd 09 02 18E 3 09 03 6 09 03 0 2 Hutchinson Avr Pkwy E xit 9 09 02 11E 3 09 03 6 09 03 OSE 2 Loop Pkwy Meadowbrook Pkwy Suge 09 02 OE 3 09 03 04 6 09 03 10 65 FDR Drive Wiliamsburg Bridge 09 02 03E 3 09 03 04 6 09 03 10 6 5 Van Wyck Grand Central Pkwy Suge 09 01 16E 3 09 03 04 6 09 03 10E 6 5 Hyland Blvd eb nb Midand Ave Suge 09 02 12E 3 09 03 04 6 09 03 10 6 5 BOE Atlantic Ave and Hamilton Ave Surge 09 02 00E 3 09 03 4 6 09 03 10 7 NJ Rte 17 4 95 5 5 Surge 09 02 08E 3 NJ Rte 7 MP 2 2 Suge 09 02 08E 3 BQE sb Hamilton Ave Surge 09 02 00E 3 09 03 04E 6 09 03 10E 7 BK Bridge ctr span 09 02 20 3 09 03 05 2 09 0307E 2 5 Queensboro Bridge ctr span 09 02 196 3 09 03 2 09 03 07E 2 5 MN Bridge ctr span 09 02 16E 3 08 03 05 2 08 0307 25 2 CAT ANH occas NS 03 03 04E 03 03 10 6 5 03 03 04E 03 03 10 6 5 The initial report calculates direct hit impacts for al
97. es and polygons along with their associated tabular attribute data ESRI developed the format with open specifications and therefore many Geographic Information System software programs have incorporated the ability to read and write shapefile data The shapefile with an shp extension stores geometry of either points lines or polygons It must be accompanied by two supporting files of the same name an shx file containing an index to the geometry and a dbf storing a database of attributes associated with the geometric shapes A number of other files having the same name but different extensions may also accompany the shp file Most notable of these are the prj file that stores the geographic coordinate system or projection and the shp xml that stores metadata Hurrevac s GIS Export Tool creates shp shx dbf and lyr files for each shapefile The files are saved by default in the GIS subdirectory under your main Hurrevac data directory Available Layers The number and types of fields available for export will vary based upon what is currently displayed on the Storm Map The following fields may be available and are described here 1 Aforecast track from the current advisory as points and lines Separate files are created for the two shape types and are differentiated p and 1 tacked on to the end of the filenames Nodes in the line file and points in the points file represent the 0 12 24 36 48 72
98. evert back to the default selection since this is an important decision that must be re evaluated with each new forecast Additional Tips To print the report s data to a file click the Print button on the Monitoring Ribbon at the top of the program Special export options are available within the Facility Timing Detail s report interface Click the Export button and then specify your choice of file name and location For file type choose dbf if you want to work with the data in a spreadsheet Choose shp if you wish to have a shapefile and attribute table exported for use in a GIS program Use the Refresh button at bottom right to redo the report if you have a new storm or different advisory loaded into the Map Display The Refresh button can be useful in a live storm situation in which a new advisory is received by the system and you want to refresh the Facility Timing Details report with the latest forecast information Alternately you could use the Advy and Advy buttons to run a report for a different advisory 152 Special Tools Evacuation Timing for a Single Facility Evacuation Timing for a Single Facility is another component of Hurrevac2010 s special Facilities Timing toolset for the New York City metropolitan area It is a slightly modified version of the standard Evacuation Timing Single Location report that breaks down a county s evacuation and hazard timing analysis hour by hour Note The NHC does not include wi
99. ext Advi The ACTIVE advisory position will be shown with a FORECAST projection ahead of it Use the ext Advisory adjustment buttons to adjust the forecast to suit then move ahead to the next advisory Forecast Positions Adjustments to Forecast Track 12 24Hour 36Hour 48Hour 72 120 Stretch Bend Left Rotate Left dors 215 248 298 365 451 537 622 i 1075 1194 Longitude 656 71 3 76 9 801 91 9 55 Cat 3 X 3 iv o iw o ivi o iv Movement mph 31 37 41 41 36 33 Cancel Wizard lt Previous Step Next Step 5 Finally name the storm The filename will be saved as yyyy stm example 2002 stm for Allison from 2002 so as to prevent an overwrite by real storms during the season The name inside the file however will be whatever name you gave it in the Name box and when you load the Xx file the name you gave it will appear within the program as usual Your storm will be saved in a special ExerciseSTMFiles data directory and is accessible in the program through the Exercise heading of the Archives Tab Exercise Track Creation Wizard Step 5 Step 5 Enter a name for this storm The storm file will be saved in the Exercise Folder under Archives The file will not include such display enhancements as NHC Wind Probabilities or Warnings You may add these if you wish using the Manual Data
100. f Hurrevac2010 is accompanied by an extensive i database of STM files HURREVAC s native file format for storing all T ES the forecast advisories from a single storm Complete seasons of ina 2004 STM records extend back to 1995 for the Atlantic basin 1999 for 9 1 2003 the East and Central Pacific basins 2001 for the West Pacific basin f 2002 and 2006 for the South Pacific basin HO 2001 For earlier years HURREVAC s data source is the NHC s Historical T 20 Track Database This database extends back to 1851 for the T 1383 Atlantic basin and 1949 for the East Pacific Basin Tfl 1338 O 1997 Archive Organization 1996 STM files of the Archives Tab are cataloged under headings for Ho 1995 sequential years 2010 2009 2008 etc Within each year STM files are further cataloged by basins Atlantic East Pacific Central Pacific West Pacific and North IO and South Pacific and South IO The check boxes by each heading can be used to turn on a preview of all storm tracks from an entire year or basin within a single year Left clicking on the name of a single storm in the list will load the relevant STM file at which point you can begin to manipulate and analyze the forecasts from that particular storm Historical Plots Rain Rivers T ides The Favorites heading at top of the Archives Tab is intended as a placeholder for frequently accessed storms To add a storm to Favorites browse the year basin headings and right cli
101. faults to max NHC forecast for this advisory OsSCat1 GssCta2 55 OsSSCa4 OSSCat5 other values will be only temporary and will revert Tourist Occupancy when advisory is changed Low Medium High Worst Extreme Response Immediate Rapid Medium Slow Optional Safety Buffer SB in hours Hours Q Use 9 DoNot Use Decision Time ALERT On Off Set Location Type LOCATION V amp ccomack TYPE In County The locations scenarios appearing in the list will vary depending on which State Plug Ins you have installed Within the individual state plug ins only those counties parishes that have undergone an official HES are listed Counties parishes appear more than once in the list if multiple scenarios are provided by the HES These scenarios account for varying evacuation patterns such as local versus regional evacuations heavy versus light traffic and lane reversal options For each location scenario combination the Evacuation Settings panel presents just one value at a time based upon selections of the following variables from a matrix or table of available clearance times 76 Utilities e Storm Category Saffir Simpson scale 1to5 e Occupancy Low Medium High and Worst Extreme e Response Immediate Rapid Medium and Slow NOTE HURREVAC s Evacuation Clearance Time Browser can be used to see the complete set of matrices for a location Overriding Defa
102. fic 1949 Current Year tropical storms and hurricanes may be queried and displayed using this utility Historical storm plots are more limited than the plots of HURREVAC s STM file because the historical databases do not contain wind ranges information Storms are simply plotted by 6 hourly center locations and are color coded at each position according to intensity Storm name when available beginning date and strength category appear on a label near the starting point for each track in the display If researching Atlantic basin storms from 1994 and later it s recommended that you use the Historical Scan for querying and quick track display and then switch to archived STM files under the yearly index of the Archives tab for further investigation Querying the Database Historical Scan Setup 1 Target Area Dimensions 3 Run The Scan Width 300NM 5deg pj ALL Height 300 NM 5 degs Areas Results gt Selected gt 1924 08 16 NOT NAMED cat 4 A CLICK on Map to position Area EMITE cat 4 1954 09 02 EDNA cat 3 1958 08 24 DAISY cat 3 2 Set Parameters Range of Years g ALL 1991 08 16 BOB cat 3 1851 209 v Range of Months ALL Select Items from List Above to Display JAN vj to DEC c Months Max 55 Category Reached by Storm 4 Set Display Options 075 5102 31 44 85 Lines Only Lines w 6hr boxes Reachedin 9 Target Area
103. for an exercise STM files are HURREVAC s native file format for storing all the forecast advisories from a single storm The Exercise Track Wizard leads you through a sequence of 5 steps You can use the Previous Step button to backtrack at any point but keep in mind that any work you have done on later steps will be overwritten 1 Set begin location and time for storm Exercise Track Creation Wizard Step 1 STEP 1 Pick the Date Time of the FIRST Advisory then Location of Storm at FIRST Advisory 1 20 03LST 04LDT 55 797 or manually enter in boxes Latitude Longitude Cancel Wizard 2 Set end location and time for storm The correct number of 6 hourly advisories will be created along a straight line track when you complete this step Exercise Track Creation Wizard Step 2 STEP 2 Pick the Date Time of the LAST Advisory then Location of Storm at LAST Advisory 20 04LST 05LDT j CLICK GN the map to enter location 38 9 77 8 or manually enter in boxes Cancel Wizard Latitude Longitude 3 Next work with the initial location of each advisory adjusting its location and storm category 4 SS CAT to suit Pay close attention to the Implied Motion and move advisory locations closer together if speed seem unrealistically high By default the Wizard escalates the storm s intensity up to the final advisory If your final advisory is well inl
104. for pre evacuation duties or preparation Any amounts selected will be shown in the SB column and added to the total clearance time period that is needed 5 Apply Settings to the list You must apply the settings to the list in order to make the new calculations effective In most cases you will use the Apply To All button to make the settings applicable to all areas For some users with multi state configurations the Apply To Selected may be appropriate If you wish to apply the settings only to certain areas you may click and drag on the list or hold down the CTRL button on your keyboard while clicking on multiple areas You must press the OK button on exit to make the settings active Refer to the topic Decision Time Alert for a description of this additional function of the Evacuation Options 77 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Decision Arc The Decision Arc Tool is located under the UTILITIES heading of Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox This tool provides a graphical means of showing your decision time for evacuation essentially duplicating the manual Decision Arc Method that was necessary before the advent of hurricane tracking software programs In this method paper tracking maps were overlaid with a series of concentric arcs radiating out from the location of interest With each new forecast advisory a particular Decision Arc would be selected by multiplying the evacuation clearance time by the forward speed of the hurricane and the storm
105. for the Risk Profile will be something similar to this example below from Virginia 103 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Report for Tropical Storm Hanna Q Based on Advisory 34 Issued 09 05 08 5AM EDT OLD Advisory Risk Profile for Hurricane Risk Profile State for Virginia Tropical Cyclone Advisory 34 Date Time FRI 09 05 08 05 EDT A Risk Area Definition Indicator Level Ay Critical Df Concem Is a Virginia Locality within 72 or 120 hour Red Within 48 hours NIA Drafin average forecast error cone Yellow Within 96 hours NC IU In 23 hr error ellipse Greens gt 96 hrs or not in Error Cone NC Dai E Red Hurricane Warning E V Accomack Yellow TS Warning or Hurricane Watch VA Albemarle Tropical Storm Warning TS Watch or None A Allegheny Highest Coastline NHC 64kt wind probability from Red Greater Than 18 V Amelia v Cape Lookout NC to Chincoteague V Yellow 11 to 18 2 for B4kt 12 for 50 for 34kt Greens Less Than 11 Increase or decrease of maximum probability since Hed Increased in Percent Risk Area Definition Decreased 3 to 2 Green Decreased in Percent last advisory Yellow Remained Same Percent mee Storm s steepest forecast angle of approach to V Red 30 140 deas 3 to 4 o clock E Storm Intensity and Evacuation 207 degrees 7 o clock Green 181 270 degs or NONE Fore
106. forward speed as they move further north meaning that a decision might need to be made on a storm when it is still well to the south 2 State and Local D Are the tropical storm force wind fields of the storm growing in size Storms often grow in dimension as they move further north thereby decreasing the amount of time remaining before tropical storm force winds are encountered This and all subsequent calculations within this topic are limited to a 72 hour period in which wind extents are forecast 3 Local What is the county s longest evacuation clearance time for a storm of this category Remember that by default HURREVAC will use the highest category predicted over the forecast period to answer this criterion This may or may not be the most appropriate selection For closer consideration refer to notes for Items 1 3 under the Storm Intensity topic The default selections can be adjusted as described in Evacuation Options 3 State 4 Local Using the official forecast track closest point of approach are tropical storm force winds forecast in the area and if so when In this calculation the Hourly Wind Ranges are advanced along the forecast track and a time is noted when tropical storm force winds first enter the area Special Tools 5 Local If this county is within the 72 hour wind swath how soon might a worst case evacuation need to be initiated This is calculated by subtracting the answer from Item 3 from t
107. ger toward a decision in a logical manner that takes advantage of the information that is available but which may not be readily apparent to all but the most experienced Risk Profile Components The following controls are used to manipulate the Risk Profile report in other words change the type of information displayed within the white box Geographic Scope Selection This list box at top left of the Risk Profile is used to define a geographic scope for the report Choices are either for an overall State Profile perspective or for the Local perspective of a single jurisdiction Some states Risk Profiles include a few neighboring counties in other states if their evacuation plans are interrelated i e Outer Banks counties of Dare and Currituck North Carolina would evacuate through the southeastern corner of Virginia NC Currituck E NC Dare V vA Albemarle V Allegheny Amelia Criteria often worded differently depending on whether the scope is state wide or local For example a state wide question about forecast peak winds is phrased Forecast peak wind in Virginia based on the 72 hr forecast track and answered 82 mph in Suffolk while the county specific question is phrased Forecast peak wind in your locality based on the 72 hr forecast track and answered with a county specific wind speed In a few cases criteria may apply to one scope but not the other For example since
108. han 34 knots 39 mph tropical storm A tropical system with maximum sustained winds greater than 34 knots 39 mph but less than 64 knots 74 mph typhoon A tropical system with maximum sustained winds greater than 64 knots 74 mph Term used for systems occurring in the West Pacific basin U USACE Abbreviation for US Army Corps of Engineers W warning A hurricane or tropical storm warning means that those conditions could affect the area within 24 hours watch A hurricane or tropical storm watch means that those conditions could affect the area within 36 hours wind ranges The extent of 34kt 50kt and 64kt winds surrounding the storm center Advisories from NHC CPHC and JTWC provide wind extents by quadrant NE SE SW NW for the initial position and 12 24 36 48 and 72 hour forecast positions 158
109. he answer from Item 4 5 State 6 Local For counties within the error swath how soon might a worst case evacuation need to be initiated worst case direct hit is used in this calculation as described in HURREVAC s methods for Evacuation Decision Timing The clearance time used in this calculation comes from Item 3 6 State Do extra hours need to be added to evacuation clearance times A holiday period or special event might warrant adjustments in tourist occupancy settings of Evacuation Options This is an important consideration when determining evacuation timing and public messaging 7 Local Does the evacuation decision time need to be shifted to a more favorable time of day If Decision Time is calculated to occur during a time when the public is unlikely to respond promptly this may warrant an adjustment in the response settings and or safety buffer of Evacuation Options 139 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Topic D Storm Surge and Flooding This topic considers threats posed by heavy rainfall and storm surge brought about by an approaching storm Screen shots of state and local output for this topic are shown here The same four criteria apply to both the state and local scopes See below for notes describing each criterion and its specific purpose Hurricane Risk Profile State for New York Tropical Cyclone EARL D Storm Surge and Flooding Greatest rainfall forecasted for NY Mortherm NJ county in t
110. he arc For the facilities version of the program the decision arc for flood threatened locations such as tunnels are eye based instead 78 Utilities Hurricane Isabel 42A September 18 2003 Midnight EDT Thursday 34Hr Forecast 32 4 74 5 W Max Sustained Wind 105 mph Cat 2 Current Movement 15 mph Current Location W Forecast Positions Potential Track Area Decision Arc for Chesapeake 11558 Heavy Evac Clearance Time 9 hours and Average Forward Speed of Storm 11 kts Note the time and date indicated in the Storm Information Box This is your latest decision time for this storm and this advisory This does not mean that any action must be taken your decision may be to do nothing but only means a decision should be made by this time or the evacuation if any could be rushed In general if you are in or near the Average Error Swath you should be concerned and consider the latest decision time as an important time landmark If the 34 knot ring is already within the Decision Arc decision time has already passed This can easily happen suddenly with a new advisory if the new advisory a increases the wind range b speeds up the storm or c increases the storm category max wind resulting in a longer evacuation clearance time and wider Decision Arc Moral don t count on the storm gradually creeping toward the Arc in one advisory the storm could jump toward the Arc or the Arc could expand quickly towa
111. he category forecasted at closest approach Item 2 D If the storm tracks over the area how far inland could hurricane force winds penetrate Wind decay modeling MEOWSs can be helpful for inland counties weighing whether or not they could be impacted by strong winds if the storm tracks over the area Topic C Evacuation Considerations 136 Special Tools Beyond the storm category assumption Topic B a number of other factors must be considered in order to arrive at an Evacuation Decision Time Screen shots of state and local output for this topic are shown here See below for notes describing each criterion and its specific purpose The first two criteria are shared by State and Local Subsequent criteria are grouped and described according to similarity rather than number Hurricane Risk Profile State for New York Tropical Cyclone EARL Advisory 30 Date Time WED 09 01 10 17 EDT C Evacuation Considerations Indicator Level A Critical Of Concem 8 Y 8 Average forward speed over 72 forecast Red 30 mph or greater B 1 period or until landfall Yellow 20 to 29 mph me winds expanded from previous advisories advisories No expansion or decrease Yellow Expanding since the last a Average forward speed 24 mph Green Less than 20 mph Has the radius of maximum tropical storm force Red Expanding over previous two advisory Green expansion or decrease Number of hours until
112. he next 72 hours Data not available for advisory gt 24 hours old What is the highest astronomical tide predicted within the 24 hour period prior to closest approach Lower than average Timing of storm s closest approach with diurnal tide cyle at gage closest to forecast track SANDY HOOK 0 hrs to high tide of 4 17 ft 6 hrs to low tide of 15 ft Has the radius of maximum hurricane force winds expanded from previous advisories No expansion or decrease 140 Advisory 30 Date Time WED 09 01 10 17 EDT Indicator Level Critical Concem J 1 Red Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Greater than 6 inches 3 to B inches Less than 3 inches Higher than average spring tide Near average Lower than average tide Near high tide Near mid tide Near low tide Expanding over previous two advisories Expanding since the last advisory No expansion or decrease Special Tools Hurricane Risk Profile Local for NYC Metro County NY Tropical Cyclone EARL D Storm Surge and Flooding Advisory 30 Date Time WED 09 01 10 17 EDT Indicator Level A Critical Dot Concem Criteria period prior to closest approach Lower than average Timing of storm s closest approach with diurnal tide cycle at gage closest to county SANDY HOOK 0 hrs to high tide of 4 17 ft 6 hrs to low tide of 15 ft A
113. her than deterministic forecast information If you are in the Error Swath or Fringe Winds area surrounding the error swath you should be concerned and following the storm closely The Error Swath Report will list all counties parishes within this swath and indicate how soon the storm might arrive This calculation will report an earlier time than the deterministic method advancing the Hourly Wind Ranges because it adds a margin of error You can also use Wind Probabilities to gage the threat Has the probability of hurricane force winds at the coastal location nearest you increased or decreased from previous advisories If you are an inland county or parish the MEOW wind decay models will tell you a lot about how much wind can be expected to penetrate inland to your area if the storm center comes very near or over you Regional planners may wish to use the Closest Approach Report to determine which locations are under the greatest threat Using HURREVAC Evacuation Decision Timing If a hurricane is determined to be close and threatening you should begin to focus more specifically on the official forecast track and precise timing calculations derived from it The close and threatening time frame is determined to a certain extent by the lead time that your community needs to make its evacuation preparations In USACE Hurricane Evacuation Studies this is referred to as the Evacuation Clearance Time the number of hours needed to m
114. ht Underneath the graph in the box labeled Residual is the specific SLOSH value which is added to the Tide Table value to obtain the total Guidance storm tide level amount 101 Special Tools Supplementing HURREVAC s standard toolset are a few special tools that handle unique circumstances and locally tailored analysis for certain states These special tools are included with Hurrevac2010 s main installation but only appear in the program interface if the user has installed a Hurricane Evacuation Study Times plug in containing tool information Special tools currently available in Hurrevac2010 are as follows Risk Profile A report that compiles custom threat assessment information for a state and its localities Risk Profiles are available for the following states e Florida e Virginia including northeastern North Carolina e New York including northeastern New Jersey Facilities Timing Reports and special settings that handle complex HES clearance time calculations for bridges tunnels and other transportation facilities in the New York City metropolitan area 102 Special Tools Risk Profiles The Risk Profile is a special state specific tool in HURREVAC which highlights information that is felt by a state s emergency managers to be especially important to consider when under a tropical cyclone threat State specific risk profiles are integrated into Hurrevac2010 but only appear in the program interface if the us
115. ht hours after 25 hour setup time after setup not enough time for Setup Almost 9 to 11 hours No less than 3 hours If One Way setup is to be done WITH 12 HRS Y es within 2 hours of One Way az DAYLIGHT AFTER 25 hr setup are we close to decision time the required One Way decision time Yes between 2 and hours of 38 hrs past OneWay Decision time at 11 07 09 8 One Way decision time AM No more than 6 hours from One Way decision time Special Tools 117 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual State and Local Summaries Risk Profile Summary State for Florida Tropical Cyclone IDA Advisory 21 Date Time SUN 11 08 09 22 EST Indicator Level y Critical D of Concem Risk Area Defi E vac Consider E vac Consider Other Considet One Way Y G Cr oC 123458123458 123458 123458 12345 A D a ig 167 8 4 ogo if u o T 17 126 115 2 m m 118 Special Tools Risk Profile Summary Local for Santa Rosa County FL Tropical Cyclone ID Advisory 21 Date Time SUN 11 08 03 22 EST Indicator Level AK Critical D of Concem Risk rea Definito E vac Considerato E vac Considerato Other Consider R Y G Cr oC 1234561234561 2345612345 D 21 ao axa 11128 3 5 5 107 6 4 4 0 n 8832 9 5 3 3 3 E er 8 16 1 1 1 a 200 200 022 119 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Virginia Risk Profile This se
116. ial tracking area or error swath The Tropical Weather Outlook accessed from the Outlook View Tab contains a text summary of activity in each basin When you find a storm you wish to investigate further left click on the storm s name in the Current Data Tab This will load this storm s STM file HURREVAC s native file format for storing all the forecast advisories from a single storm into memory With a storm activated you can begin to manipulate it using the Map Toolbar or Storm Features Annotation and Reports of the Functions window You can also view the text of its advisory package accessed from the Advisory View Tab Storm Presentation HURREVAC 2010 Version 1 0 176 Hurricane Decision Support for Emergency Management sme Pto satus heso aL to Current Archives Advisory C Outlook Atlantic RICK 15 October 18 2009 11 PM EDT Sun CurrentLocation 17 0 N 110 3 Vv 145 mph Cat 4 13 mph East Pac 1 ue Pac 1 A t West Pac amp IO 1 N South Pac amp 10 i E b 7 fu Rain 3 PM 2 HAT Thu 8 AM BOmph SSCat 0 Rivers 4 1 lr Tide Gages de PM B0mph SSCat 1 QU m Vit a T ae 8 AM 90mph SSCat 1 Tue 8 PM 100mfih SSCat 2 STORM FEATURES 3 Tue SSCat 2 ANNOTATION wi REPORTS BROWSERS UTILITIES Mon 8 PM 20 SSCat 3 Ba a 5 ix OA 1111 100
117. in its advisory These are given only in 4 quadrants Northeast NE in advisory Southeast SE Southwest SW and Northwest NW With only these wind ranges as input and even with smoothing of the range changes between quadrants the wind forecast must show that most or all of the quadrant has the specified wind range from the advisory Therefore as stated in the NHC Disclaimer in certain situations a small area of stronger winds at the edge of a quadrant may exist and the advisory must reflect that wind range for the quadrant as a whole This situation most frequently occurs on the left side of storms that are moving forward at a decent pace Itis also noted frequently in closely paralleling storm situations In these situations it is normal for there to be a marked decrease in wind ranges on the left side west side for northward moving storms especially if the storm is moving forward at a significant speed But since there is usually a pronounced drop off in wind ranges from the right side to left side of the storm in these situations stronger winds in a small area just inside the left weaker quadrant can result in a greater wind range in the advisory for the entire quadrant than actually exists Also there are certain situations where a small area of stronger winds are located well within a quadrant perhaps in a small area of heavy showers but are not reflected in the rest of the quadrant 38 Place Names Place Names are an AN
118. in the list of available Counties Parishes it is because no study has been done Check with your state s hurricane planner for information on if when that might change This person will also know the age of your HES data and when a restudy might be planned Once you have downloaded HES data for one or more counties you can use HURREVAC s Evacuation Clearance Time Browser to view the data within the program Inundation Maps These are old raster based static maps of surge zones that have been ported from Hurrevac2000 While the type of information on these maps is extremely useful the crude resolution and age of those available in HURREVAC severely limit their usefulness Check with your county or state hurricane planner for newer versions of these maps that are often distributed in GIS or PDF formats One you have downloaded an inundation map plug in use HURREVAC s Surge Map Browser under the UTILITIES heading to view available maps River Gage Maps Static raster based maps are available for certain river gages within Hurrevac s River Gage Browser These maps consist of aerial photography showing the area around the gage that would be inundated by a 100 year flood and by a 500 year flood 87 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Connection Settings Connection Settings are handled by Hurrevac2010 s Setup Form Hurrevac Setup Form State Plug Ins Connection Settings Download Schedule Local Defaults Timeline Time Zone
119. ines 08 28 17E 08228 22 08 29 00 08 29 18 18 08 23 13 21 08 23 22 23 The report s data is initially sorted alphabetically by state and county To sort by a different item click on its heading once for ascending order twice for descending order Each row of the tabular report is colored according to the maximum wind intensity forecast for that county blue if tropical storm force 34kt or 39mph yellow if 50kt or 58mph and red if hurricane force 64kt or 74mph You can also run this Wind Timing analysis for Local Areas for a more selective report 49 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Evacuation Timing Report The Evacuation Timing Reports are accessed from the REPORTS heading of Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox These reports are available for counties with Hurricane Evacuation Study clearance times installed as State Plug Ins The purpose of Evacuation Timing is to determine how long you can afford to wait before beginning an evacuation The advantage of delaying this evacuation start for as long as possible is so that your decisions are based on the most accurate storm forecast while still allowing enough time for preparations to be completed if needed Note that all the computations done to arrive at the information here assume a direct hit on the area for the purposes of timing actions a worst case scenario and one you must consider if in or near the threat area To print or export the reports data to a file click the Pri
120. inia based on the 72 hr Red Hurricane Force winds forecast track Yellow Between 58 and 74mph mph in Southampton Green Less than 58mph Storm s steepest forecast angle of approach to V Red 90 140 degs 3 to 4 o clock EN coastline Yellow 141 180 degs 4 to o clock 207 degrees O clock Green 181 270 degs or NONE 121 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Hurricane Risk Profile Local for Ya Beach County Tropical Cyclone Advisory 34 Date Time FRI 09 05 08 05 EDT A Risk Area Definition Indicator Level A Critical Of Concem R YS Is this Locality within NHC 72 or 120 hour average Red Within 48 hours 1 forecast error cone Yellow Within 96 hours 30 hours Green gt 96 hrs or not in Error Cone Are NHC Watch or Warnings issued for your Red Hurricane Warning 2 county OR if inland county nearby coast Yellow TS Warning or Hurricane Watch TS Wing Green TS Watch or None What is the NHC 64kt wind probability nearest Red Very High Risk gt 18 3 your locality Yellow High Risk 11 to 18 2 12 for 50 for 34kt Green Med or Low Risk lt 11 Have the wind probabilities nearest your location Red Increased in Percent increased or decreased since the last advisory Yellow Remained Same Percent Same 2 gt 2 Green Decreased in Percent or lt 3 nnn Storm s steepest forecast angle of approach to V 90 140 degs 3 to 4 o clock BE coastline Yellow 141 180 degs 4
121. int in time and direction that a storm is forecasted to approach each county in the list The predicted storm track of the current advisory is used to calculate this information Oye Advisory Report 0 4 Report for Hurricane Katrina Based on Advisory 20 Issued 08 28 05 2AM EDT OLD Advisory Closest Approach Of Storm Center 64 Items Y Location Closest Naut Mi Closest Stat Mi Date Time Azimuth Direction 08 29 2005 10 84 dea E 08 23 2005 10E 90 deg E 08 23 2005 11E In County In County 08 29 2005 12 83 deg 37 898 08 29 2005 12 83 deg 194 13 LA Terrebonne LA Lafourche 3 LA Jefferson 7 12 2 16 LA St Mary L St Martin L Vermilion L St Charles L St Bernard 08 29 2005 13E 83 deg 08 29 2005 13E 81 deg 08 23 2005 14E In County In County 31 dea E 247 WSW 10 or less 10 or less 2 7 0 LA Plaquemines 08 29 2005 14E In County In County LA Iberia 0929 2005 14E 32 deg XS oan TE lt ammm A a report s data is initially sorted by Date Time of closest approach To sort by a different item click on its heading once for ascending order twice for descending order To print or export the report data to a file click the Print button on the Monitoring Ribbon at the top of the program 53 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Rainfall Report The 3 day quantitative rainfall forecast is one of
122. interstate lane reversal is a regional evacuation option it is only addressed in criteria that appear under the State Profile Topics Criteria are organized and labeled according to topic These topics are shown on sequentially lettered A B C D etc screens The number and types of topics vary according to the custom design of each state s Risk Profile and may include any number of the following Risk Area Definition Risk Area Definition Criteria that lead the user to consider information that is felt necessary to define the geographic region at risk and the change in risk Storm Intensity and from recent advisories Evacuation Storm Intensity and Evacuation Scenario Criteria that lead the user eee toward the correct Saffir Simpson Category assumption for determining the Characteristics type and extent of evacuation should one be needed UE Evacuation Characteristics Criteria that lead the user toward determining Considerations the proper evacuation decision time based not only on the length of clearance time needed but on such things as the time of day at which One Way Concems evacuation occurs 105 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Storm Surge and Flooding Criteria that lead the user to consider the potential for severe coastal storm surge and or inland flooding due to heavy rainfall Other Considerations This topic includes other information which may affect your evacuation such as time of year and whether other
123. l 132 facilities in the HURREVAC Critical Facilities list e EvacType identifies facility as either wind or surge vulnerable Mobilize hrs Date Time to start mobilization with the duration in parentheses Past indicates that the action should already be underway if needed e Evac hrs Date Time to start an evacuation with the duration in parentheses Past indicates that the action should already be underway if needed e Closure hrs Date Time to start closure with the duration in parentheses Past indicates that the action should already be underway if needed e Hazards hrs Beginning time for the wind or surge hazards This calculation includes the hazards offset in parentheses which is used to account for earlier winds at high elevations or surge in advance of eye arrival Eye Arrives Date Time when the eye of the storm would pass over the facility assuming a direct hit Jurisdiction Owner Type facility description details which can be used to sort or filter the list Clicking on any heading will cause the list to sort according to data in that column 148 Special Tools Filtering The facilities list can be filtered by any or all of the following criteria jurisdiction owner facility type and hazard type The effect of this filtering is to pare down the long list of facilities to only those of particular interest When the facility list is filtered it is denoted in the Filter tab on the lower left
124. label MB or millibars this will be a number somewhere in the range 900 to 1020 Storm File Options Input Boxes Edit Options Other Items Enter Edit Warnings Cancel Delete Advisory Fill Remaining Blank Boxes with Last 70 Utilities Storm File Options Create New Storm Button This button brings up a screen where you can enter the name of NEW storm one not in the files Do not use this to enter a new advisory on an existing storm Instead use the Advisory Box Delete Advisory Button If you wish to delete the currently shown advisory from the storm file shown use this option Use with care you can always just edit the information if some is bad Input Boxes Edit Options Clear Boxes This option clears all of the data input boxes not the date time or filename advisory boxes To allow you to start with a clean slate If you are entering a new advisory the old advisory data will still be in the input boxes Atthat point you can either edit that data or use this option to start anew lf you use this option you can restore the previous data by clicking on the Restore button See below Restore Boxes This button restores the data which was in the boxes before the last Clear or Fill In Boxes option Fill Rest of Blank Boxes with Last This option is handy for filling in boxes when there is little or no change from the previous forecast valid time s on the advisory The program fills in the boxes below later
125. landfall Avg Forward Speed To Landfall 18 mph Highest Clearance time for Virginia HES Risk Locality within 72 hr average forecast error cone York 22 25 hrs for Cat 1 Number of hours until onset of Tropical Storm force winds in Virginia based on the forecast track 19 hrs in Greensville Earliest NHC Forecast Track EPA Decision Time for localities within the 72 hr average forecast error cone PAST DECISION TIME 2 25hrs Chesapeake Earliest Direct T o Point DTP Decision Time for localities within the 72 hr average forecast error cone PAST DECISION TIME 2 25hrs Va Beach Period of day when Forecast Track Decision Time for the above occurs Probability of public emergency decisions being received and acted on 2 Fri Red Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Indicator Level AX Critical D of Concem 25 MPH or greater 15 to 25 MPH Less than 15 MPH Locality with 24hrs or greater Locality with 16to23hrs Less than 16 hours Within 24 Hours Between 24 and 36 hrs Greater than 36hrs or none Decision time has passed 12 Hrs or less to Decision time Greater than 12 hrs from Decision time Decision time has passed 12 Hrs or less to Decision time Greater than 12 hrs from Decision time 11PM to or to Mon Fri 4PM to 11PM BAM to or to Sat Sun 125 Hurrevac2010 Users Ma
126. location would be plotted using a special transparent disk representing the storm center and extent of 34kt winds Decision time was indicated when the storm s 34kt wind ring finally intersected the decision arc The Decision Arc Method has been largely replace by HURREVAC s Evacuation Timing Report for a single location however many emergency managers who are familiar with the method still use this tool in HURREVAC How HURREVAC computes a Decision Arc 1 Theuser selects a location and evacuation scenario from under Arc Setup of the Decision Arc UTILITIES heading The program uses the evacuation clearance time from the available state plug ins and uses the settings such as Occupancy Response Storm Category set in the Evacuation Options utility 2 The program computes how long it would take 34 knot winds to reach the location of interest assuming a direct hit and uses this to sample the forecast forward speed of the storm for that time period 3 Using the forward speed and clearance time obtained above a distance is obtained speed x time distance An arc with this radius is drawn around the location of interest The exact location of the center of the arc if you zoom in close you will see a white circle there is the nearest corner of the county to the present storm s initial position How to use the Decision Arc 5 4 Move the storm forward along its forecast track until the outermost ring the 34knot winds touches t
127. n headings Click on a heading once for ascending order twice for descending order or you can sort by the Most Rain and Alphabetical buttons at the bottom of the report Each row of the tabular report is colored according to the 3 day total rainfall forecast blue if less than 3 inches yellow if less than 5 inches and red if 5 or more The report s data can be filtered by Locals Only or restored to All Items The Refresh button should be used if you wish to update the report after a new HPC rainfall forecast is downloaded To print or export the report s data to a file click the Print button on the Monitoring Ribbon at the top of the program IMPORTANT NOTES These forecasts from HPC are currently issued every 12 hours and the NHC issues advisories on hurricanes at least every 6 hours Therefore by the time the latest advisory from NHC is issued the HPC rain forecast can easily be several hours old and therefore may not reflect the latest forecast storm track from NHC 55 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Also these rainfall forecasts are smoothed and averaged amounts while actual rain amounts especially in the warm months are not usually distributed as evenly and tend to fluctuate widely over an area Therefore as in hurricane forecasting think of the forecast rain amounts as educated guesses that help you to zero in on the most vulnerable areas Also as in hurricane forecasting the rain amount error increases dr
128. nd ranges information in the extended forecast from 72to 120 hours Therefore the reporting period for this tool is only from hour 0 the hour the NHC forecast is issued to hour 72 When this report is produced for a facility the Possible Action column specifically indicates each clearance hour as one of the three types either mobilization evacuation or closure and the hours after TASK COMPLETE as the type of hazard indicated for that facility either wind or storm surge Advisory Report 0 1 4 Report for Hurricane Earl Based on Advisory 30 Issued 09 01 10 5PM EDT OLD Advisory Evac Timing Assume DIRECT HIT for NY E Tunnel Flood E Date Time hr Possible Action Hrs Left to 34Kt 39 to 5OKt 58 to 74 To Eye 09 03 10 OOEDT Preparation Plann 1 to Decide 181 miles 247 miles 282 miles 343 miles stamcinst Treesro mies 15 TASKS COMPLETE Stet 15 _ Set ames rooms tte 1 armies emwewepr nno sete omies omies emsnisebT nuno tries 10 16EDT FLOODING 1 to Eye D miles D miles D miles 21 miles 10 17EDT FLOODING EYE D to Eye D miles D miles D miles miles j B SS Category 4 Occupancy Medium Response Medium Timeline OFF Rows of the t
129. ne these for an area based on various storm parameters and local conditions F FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency forecast period Length of forecast Beginning at synoptic time tropical cyclone tracks are forecasted to 120 hours 5 days while wind extents are forecasted only to 72 hours 3 days forecast track A line created for a single advisory by connecting the storm center s initial position with its 12 24 36 48 72 96 and 120 hour forecast positions forward speed Speed at which the storm center is moving along either its forecast or actual track fringe winds Winds of 34kts tropical storm strength or greater surrounding the storm s core G GIS Geographic Information System a class of software programs that manipulate analyze and present map based information HURREVAC includes a GIS Export Tool for transferring storm related information into GIS programs H HES Hurricane Evacuation Study a program of FEMA and USACE to assist local emergency managers in determining who should evacuate when a hurricane threatens and when they should leave HPC Hydrometeorological Prediction Center a National Weather Service office that prepares maps and forecast guidance products related to precipitation hurricane A tropical system with maximum sustained winds greater than 64 knots 74 mph Term used for systems occurring in the Atlantic East Pacific and Central Pacific basins initial position Position of the
130. ns have attribute values to indicate a regions expected rainfall in 100th of inches 9 NWS river flood outlook as polygons Polygons have attribute values to indicate whether the likelihood of flooding in a region is possible 1 likely 2 or imminent or occurring 3 Additional Notes By default the polygons overlay each other In other words with the 3 wind ranges surrounding a hurricane the 64kt 74mph wind ring will overlay the 5Okt 58mph wind polygon which will in turn overlay the 34kt 39mph polygon If the higher 2 wind polygons are then turned off in the GIS program display what will remain is a polygon representing winds gt 34kt 39mph In other words you do not have doughnuts representing wind gt 34kt and 50kt The wind swaths error swaths and HPC rainfall isopleths also export in this manner For help in creating unique doughnut polygons refer to the GIS Issues page of the support website at www hurrevac com Legend AVL and layer LYR files are also available on the web site to assist you in illustrating exported shapes in Arcview 3 x and ArcGIS 8 x as they appear in HURREVAC Experience in GIS is recommended as the manipulation of these exported files may not be easy for the casual user of HURREVAC 82 Utilities Exercise Track Wizard The Exercise Track Wizard is located under the UTILITIES heading of Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox This tool leads you through steps necessary to create an STM file of your own
131. nt button on the Monitoring Ribbon at the top of the program 50 Reports Single Location The Evacuation Timing Single Location report consists of hour by hour timeline of actions for a selected county The time frame ranges from hour 0 the hour of the forecast to hour 72 the limit of the wind forecast Rows of the tabular report are colored according to activity gray if pre decision or post storm time green if active evacuation time blue if within tropical storm force 34kt or 39mph yellow if within 50kt or 58mph and red if within hurricane force 64kt or 74mph conditions In the final column the hours in daylight and dark are noted an important consideration when deciding on the best time to begin an evacuation Report for Hurricane Katrina Based on Advisory 15 Issued 08 26 05 11PM EDT OLD Advisory Evac Timing Assume DIRECT HIT for LA Orleans Fast OffPk 9 Date Time hr Possible Action Hrs Left to 34 3 SOKY58 to B4Kt 74 ToEye Day Night 08 26 05 23EDT Preparation Planning 101 Decide 429 mies 444 mies 456 mies 467 miles 05 27 05 0560 3teDecie mies 35 tlUmies 25 SS Category 4 Occupancy Medium Response Medium Timeline OFF All Locations or Local Areas The Evacuation Timing All Locations report consists of evacuation timeline information for all locations with HES State Plug Ins available The report s data is initially sorted by earliest
132. nta Rosa County FL Tropical Cyclone IDA Advisory 21 Date Time SUN 11 08 09 22 EST B Storm Intensity and Evacuation Scenario Indicator Level AY Critical Of Concem me 1 What is the current intensity of the storm Red Major hurricane Cat 3 4 5 i Cat 2 hurricane Yellow Hurricane Cat 1 or 2 Green Tropical storm or lower ndm How is the storm intensity forecast to change Increase in category B 2 before landfall Yellow No increase in category No change Green Decrease in category gu k How close is the storm maximum forecast wind to Red Within 5 mph of next category 3 4 the next highest Saffir Simpson category Yellow Within 10 mph of next category mph from Cat 3 Green 10 mph or more from next EN category Number of hours left for storm to intensify before Hed 49 of more hours landfall of eye on projected track Yellow 25 to 48 hours 72 hrs Green 24 hours or less mois Planning assumption for determination of Red Yes Assume evac zones one n evacuation zones Any red or yellow boxes in B3 category higher or B4 above Yellow Not used Zones 1 to Cat 3 Green No Evac zones remain same Medium Yellow Medium occupancy Green Low occupancy What is the tourist population in county Red High occupancy 112 Special Tools Hurricane Risk Profile 5tate for Florida Tropical Cyclone IDA Advisory 21 Date Time SUN 11 08 09 2
133. nty If non HES risk county then standard B hrs used 35 hrs for Cat 4 Medium Occ Medium Resp Number of hours until onset of tropical storm force winds 39 mph on the forecast track Not forecast within 72 hrs for this county if within the 72 hour wind swath No tropical storm winds forecast Assuming a Direct Hit track what is the Decision Time for this county hrs 09 01 1011 PM Period of day when Decision Time for your county occurs 11 PM Wed l Earliest NHC Forecast Track Decision Time Red Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Notes on the Evacuation Considerations Criteria 30 mph or greater 20 to 29 mph Less than 20 mph Expanded over previous two advisories Expanded since the last advisory No expansion or decrease County with 24 hours or greater County with 16 to 23 hours Less than 16 hours Within 24 hours Between 24 and 36 hours Greater than 36 hours or none Decision time has passed 12 hours or less to decision time Greater than 12 hours from decision time Decision time has passed 12 hours or less to decision time Greater than 12 hours to decision time or S amp M 4PM Mon Fri 4PM 11PM or 4 Sat Sun 138 1 1 State and Local How fast is the storm tracking toward the area Storms typically pick up
134. nual Hurricane Risk Profile Local for Ya Beach County Tropical Cyclone Advisory t 34 Date Time FRI 08 05 08 05 EDT C Evacuation Characteristics Indicator Level AY Critical Of Concem Predicted forward speed over 72 hour forecast Red 25 or greater 1 period or until landfall Yellow 15 to 25 MPH Avg Forward Speed To Landfall 18 mph Green Less than 15 MPH Clearance time for your locality IF non HES risk Red Locality with 24hrs or greater locality then standard 6 hrs used Yellow Locality with 16to23hrs 22 25 hrs for Cat 1 Medium Occ Medium Resp Green Less than 16 hours Number of hours until onset of Tropical Storm Red Within 24 Hours force winds on the forecast track Yellow Between 24 and 36 hrs Green Greater than 36hrs or none Assuming a Direct To Point DTP Red Decision time has passed track Calculated Decision Time for this locality Yellow Within hrs of decision time PAST DECISION TIME 2 25hrs Green 12 hrs or greater from decision time Period of day when Decision Time for your locality Red 11PM to or SAM to 4PM occurs Mon Fri 2 AM Fri Yellow 4PM to 11PM Green to SAM or to Sat Sun 126 Special Tools Hurricane Risk Profile State for Virginia Tropical Cyclone D Other Considerations Advisory 34 Date Time FRI 08 05 08 05 EDT Indicator Level AY Critical Df Concem J me E
135. of facilities here and on the main Facility Timing Report to NJ DOT facilities Next a Mobilize Time Offset of 1 extra hour was added to all 7 facilities with the Apply to ALL Facilities Below button This change is reflected the CAT 1 2 3 4 5 values and 1 notations in both the Mobilize time and Total time columns In this next screen shot below 2 hours have also been added to the closure time of surge affected NJ DOT facilities The desired facilities were individually selected while holding down the CTRL key and then Apply to Selected Facilities The lone wind affected facility retains a total offset of just 1 Mobilize hour while the others now have a total offset of 3 hours 1 Mobilize 2 Closure Set Edit Facility Options To add or subtract hours enter the value in the box enter to subtract and select Apply Apply to Selected Facilities is an option for facilities highlighted in blue using CTRL click Mobilize Time Offset hrs Evacuation Time Offset hrs Close Time Offset hrs 2 C Apply to Selected Facilities 3 Apply to ALL Facilities Below Facility eh Mobilize time hrs Evacuate time hrs Closure time hrs Total time hrs Surge 3 3 20 5 Pulaski Skyway Bridge 4747474741 6 6 6 6 6 18 5 20 5 23 2 26 8 26 8 1 NJ 7 5 4 4 1 NJ Rte 3 NJ Such an adjustment might perhaps be temporarily warrant
136. omplete replacement for the older Hurrevac2000 software HURRTYAC 2010 Version 1 0 307 Decision Support for Emergeecy Management Sete Acher L 87 Atlantic 16 update Nc 026 67 downloaded HO Hurricane ike 39A September 10 2008 8 PM EDT Wednesday Current ocaton 247 N 8 amp 2W Sustained Wiad 590 meh Cat 2 gt meh HO Bethe FA Ow Po Edousd lw Fay Cntr HO pmi Hurrevac2010 s advantages over Hurrevac2000 are as follows State specific data is easier to install and keep up to date State specific HES clearance times river gage maps and other customizations are installed from within the program Automatic polling and download of new forecast data via web standard http protocol Hurrevac2010 receives new data from the Internet just as your web browser does using standard http communication Network administrators will no longer be required to open ports and firewalls in order to give users access to live data from hurrevac com as was sometimes necessary with Hurrevac2000 s FTP protocol Hurrevac2010 will monitor for new storms storm advisory updates and alert you when new data has been downloaded from the hurrevac com web site Tabbed browsing for switching between the tracking map advisory text and reports This is similar to modern Internet browsers that present web pages on mul
137. on to evacuate or not is complex and should ONLY be made after consultation with state and local emergency management officials and NWS officials Time Left Evacuation Scenario Direct Hit 34kt Arrival Clearance Time Decision Time to Decision In County SAM EDT Thu Sep 18 5 hours 44M EDT Thu Sep 1 11 hours Current Settings for this Note Decision Times will fluctuate from one county parish are advisory to the next as these parmeters change SS Category 1 SS Category 34 kt Wind Range and Response Medium Forecast Forward Speed of the storm Occupancy Medium a Change These Settings A Decision Time Alert can be configured under the Evacuation Options UTILITIES within Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox Only one location scenario can be selected for this alert If you are responsible for multiple counties or are considering multiple scenarios selecting the location scenario that has the longest lead times will ensure that you are alerted at the earliest possible time The location scenario you select will be retained even upon exit of the program 97 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Select Evacuation Options for Advisory SEVENTEEN E 01 Location a Scenario Cat Occ Resp SB Total Evac Hrs VA Norfolk 1 i i 4 85 0 vanor Mean 0 2225 em Norfolk Select Location amp Evacuation Type ove Options Location Scenario Evacuation Type V Accomack In Co
138. or three times as many users since registration is only required of one contact person per site HURREVAC is generally regarded as an indispensable tool for monitoring hurricane threats and determining evacuation and other operational decision deadlines As a federally funded program the software datafeed and technical support are provided free of charge to all individuals in government emergency management who request access HURREVAC is not distributed beyond the government emergency management community For program access please visit the registration page at http www hurrevac com register php Successful registrants receive an e mail reply with instructions on how to download the program installation file Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Installation and Configuration Detailed installation instructions are e mailed to new users who apply for program access through the registration page at http www hurrevac com register php If you are already registered but need to have the installation instructions resent please visit http www hurrevac com resend php Program Requirements Hurrevac2010 is a stand alone desktop application for computers running Microsoft Windows An Internet connection is required in order for the program to retrieve live forecast data The only other program requirement is Microsoft NET Framework 2 0 This modern application framework is included with Windows VISTA and Windows 7 and may be obtained for olde
139. or greater and be selective with the number of items you include in the label text 34 Annotation to Custom Annotation OP ea D Custom Annotation is an ANNOTATION item accessed in the Toolbox i and through right clicking on the 9 Custom Annotations are snippets of text you add to the map display independent of labels that HURREVAC automatically generates Possible uses of this include e Labeling a place on the map and fixing to a map position e Adding an explanatory text to the map and fixing to a screen position Working with Custom Text Annotation 1 Right click on the map in a location where Zoom To Selected Storm you wish to add a text label and select Annotate Text Here from the pop up menu oS ee 2 Inthe Text Annotation setup form select a text size location relative to Lat Lon or h Test Lise Screen Position text color and bold regular font Enter your text in the box and press Annotate 3 Text can be toggled on and off with the Custom Annotation check box under the ANNOTATION heading of the Toolbox The Drei Delete Nearest Text Delete ALL Text Place WindTag Here Remove Nearest WindTag text will remain in memory for as long as the Wind Details This Location program is open 4 Text may be cleared from memory by right Center RangeMarks Here clicking on the map and selecting Delete Nearest Text or Delete ALL Text 35
140. or switched the map display to a different advisory use the Refresh button to rerun the analysis based upon the changed forecast information To print or export the report s data to a file click the Print button on the Monitoring Ribbon at the top of the program 41 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Storm Statistics Graph An additional option is available within the Analysis Reports selection to display storm statistics in graph form Report for Hurricane Katrina Based on Advisory 22 Issued 08 28 05 8AM EDT OLD Advisory Storm Statistics Graph 9 KATRIHA Advisory 22 08 28 05 O8EDT Forecast dotted lines Past solid lines Stats We 4 4 4 4 ri 145 1000 60 115 975 40 85 950 20 55 925 t 0 25 edi 900 Fud 08 24 08 25 08 26 08 27 08 28 08 29 08 30 08 31 09 01 Pressure Speed Wind OSE OSE OSE OSE OSE OSE OSE OSE OSE imb mph mph Forward Speed e e e Max Sustained Wind Central Pressure s s The forward speed is plotted in black with its scale bar at far left Maximum sustained winds is plotted in red with a scale bar at near left Central pressure is plotted in blue with a scale bar on the right edge of the graph Statistics from old advisories are connected by a solid line Statistics from the forecast period are connected by a dashed line The NHC does not provide forecasts of barometric pressure so the blue line is not plotted for the forecast pe
141. or weather hydrologic and climate forecasts P past track A line created from multiple advisories by connecting the storm center s initial position at each old advisory Also referred to as the actual track probabilistic forecast A forecast presenting the likelihood of various outcomes The NHC s Wind Probabilities is probabilistic S SLOSH Sea Lake and Overland Surge from Hurricanes the official storm surge model of the National Hurricane Center state plug ins State specific data necessary for certain HURREVAC operations such as evacuation decision timing After initial program installation plug ins must be added using Hurrevac2010 s Setup Panel STM file HURREVAC s native file format for storing all forecast advisory information from a single storm storm category Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale a 1 to 5 ranking of hurricane wind strength where categories 3 4 and 5 are considered major hurricanes synoptic time Time that data is collected Weather data is collected around the world at 00 Zulu 06 Zulu 12 Zulu and 18 Zulu Zulu is also known as GMT or UTC time T 157 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual tropical cyclone Generic term for hurricanes and typhoons tropical systems with maximum sustained winds greater than 64 knots 74 mph Indian Ocean and South Pacific basin systems are typically referred to as topical cyclones tropical depression A tropical system with maximum sustained winds of less t
142. ove the vulnerable population to safety Clearance times vary according to both storm and local conditions In HURREVAC you can use the Evacuation Clearance Time Browser to review all available scenarios for your county or parish Timing Calculations HURREVAC arrives at an evacuation decision time using input from the official hurricane forecast from NHC CPHC or JTWC and the Hurricane Evacuation Study for the county or parish of interest Saffir Simpson Storm forecast Hurricane Scale lt Arrival time Evacuation of tropical Clearance Time Decision Time storm force winds To determine the arrival time of tropical storm force winds the program takes an Alternate Track worst case scenario of a direct hit in which the forward speed and wind ranges of the official forecast are retained but the track is straightened and redirected to the county of interest Typically the alternate track adjustment for counties in or near the error swath will result in a slightly earlier arrival time for tropical storm force winds than the official track Note that because of the alternate track adjustment it possible to run timing calculations on counties well outside of the error swath where a storm strike is unlikely HURREVAC cannot tell you whether or not an evacuation is justified only when the last possible moment is for making that decision The advantage of waiting as long as possible is that
143. ph and 110 ts 127 mph L Catahoula LA Concordia LA E Baton Rouge gt 095 knots 109 and 110 knots 127mph LA E Carroll 050 knots 58mph and 55 knots 75mph LA E Feliciana gt knots 82mph and 95 knots 108mph LA Franklin S2mph LA Iberia gt 095 knots 109 and 110 kn 2 mph LA Iberville gt 095 knots 109 and 110 knots 127mphj gt 110k EZA gt 110k 127mph gt 110k 127 mph LA Madison gt 065 knots 75mph and 80 knots 82mph LA Orleans gt 110 knots 127mph lt E Alphabetical Allltems Locals Only If no decay model is currently selected a selection panel will appear asking you to choose one The default model selected is one determined from the Max Wind forecast by the NHC for that advisory at any time out to 72 hours and the forecast forward speed of the storm over the next 36 hours You can choose any model you wish or leave the selection as is Hurrevac generates a report for an entire region Northeast Southeast or Gulf Coast so the list is very long and likely includes many counties that are well away from the forecast track To limit the report length either choose Locals Only or In Error Cone which limits the list to those within the Average Error Swath 45 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual The report s data is initially sorted alphabetically by state and county To sort by the Category of Wind click on its hea
144. program appear at the bottom left of the workspace e Storm Features displayed on the map for the current advisory e Annotation options for additional map labeling e Various Reports to be generated on potential storm impacts e Various Browsers to be used to examine mapped features such as river and tide gages e Utilities Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Tracking Current Storms Real time monitoring and storm tracking are central to Hurrevac2010 The program s primary data sources are the three US government based forecast centers which together cover tropical cyclone activity worldwide 1 The National Hurricane Center NHC responsible for the Atlantic basin including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico and the East Pacific basin that extends westward to 140 degrees longitude 2 The Central Pacific Hurricane Center responsible for the Central Pacific basin from 140 to 180 degrees west 3 The Joint Typhoon Warning Center JTWC with a large area of responsibility that includes the West Pacific and North Indian Ocean plus the South Pacific and South Indian Ocean Whenever there is an active tropical cyclone the responsible forecast center produces sequentially numbered advisories at 6 hour intervals Issuance times are 03 09 15 and 21 Zulu which translates to 11pm 5am 11am and 5pm Eastern Daylight Time HURREVAC 2010 Version 1 0 176 Hurricane Decision Support for Emergency Management ij Setup E Update Now
145. r Hurricane Katrina Based on Advisory 22 Issued 08 28 05 8AM EDT OLD Advisory Wind Forecast Details Single County Parish LA Orleans Date Time hr Wind Speed From Direction 34kt Eye distance Hour 08 28 05 20EDT less than 34kt 050 30 miles 79 miles 104 miles 178 miles 12 08 28 05 21EDT less than 34kt 050 169 miles 08 28 05 22EDT less than 34kt 050 158 miles 08 28 05 23EDT less than 34kt 050 150 miles 050 D miles D miles D miles 61 miles 040 D miles miles D miles 51 miles 040 040 48 Reports All Locations or Local Areas The Wind Timing All Locations report consists of information for all counties within the wind swath of the advisory forecast The forecasted arrival time and ending time is given for each of the three categories of wind Duration of winds equal to or greater than the category appear in parentheses after the ending times Time of peak winds storm s closest approach is reported in the final column 8 d Advisory Report 0 Report for Hurricane Katrina Based on Advisory 22 Issued 08 28 05 8AM EDT OLD Advisory Wind Timing for Local Areas Only 30 Items Location 34kt 38mph 5 kt 58mph 64kt 74mph B4ktEND dur SOktEND dur Peak Wind i 08 0 OSE 0 3 08 29 16E 03 08 29 18 09 0 2 8 73 9 14 L Jefferson 08 4 08 29 02 0 5 08 29 18E 13 08 29 19 17 0 LA Orleans 08 29 ODE 0 0 LA Plaquem
146. r operating systems such as Windows XP if not already present on your computer Hurrevac2010 s installation wizard will alert you if the prerequisite NET Framework is missing and needs to be downloaded from Microsoft com Installation Basic steps for installation and configuration as detailed in the registration e mail include 1 Download and run the program install file 2 Launch the program and go the HURREVAC Setup Form to make selections for State Plug ins Connection Settings the Download Schedule and Local Defaults Using HURREVAC The following is a short walk through of Hurrevac2010 intended for users who are new to HURREVAC and for those who wish to refresh their skills Topics in This Tour Exploring the Workspace Tracking Current Storms Analyzing Threats Evacuation Decision Timing Other Forecast Data Working with Archive Storms Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Exploring the Workspace HURREVAC 2010 Version 1 0 309 Hurricane Decision Support for Emergency Management gt 8 Monitoring Ribbon Adeo Outlook SEL Ere d ii pe qeu NE REPORTS BROWSERS UTILITIES Hurrevac2010 s default view is dominated by a large tracking map Additional View Tabs are available for displaying other items e text of the currently displayed storm advisory e text of the Tropical Weather Outlook and e vario
147. r that you must use the Z or Zulu also called GMT issuance time of the advisory This is the time frame that is used with the Forecast Advisory and printed at the top of that advisory 69 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Eye Positions 34 Kt Wind Range n m 50 Kt Wind Range n m 64 Kt Wind Range n m Valid Time Lat Lon NE SE Sw NW NE SE Sw NW NE SE SW NW Initial 21 0 73 4 11 125 125 100 125 90 75 50 75 50 40 30 50 8 007 203 752 1 125 125 100 125 90 75 50 75 5o 40 30 50 8 122 21 4 77 6 130 110 90 125 75 60 45 75 40 30 30 50 9 0072 222 733 120 100 80 125 60 50 40 75 30 25 25 50 9 122 230 81 8 we ca 110 90 80 125 60 45 40 75 30 20 20 50 10122 245 850 EN e 120 100 80 125 60 50 50 75 30 25 25 50 11122 250 875 E 57 15 120 45 CE EN 100 12727 270 305 Central Pressure In Millibars MB 549 Data Entry Boxes It is best to enter new data by Row rather than by Column since the data on the Forecast Advisory is grouped together by time So begin first with the Row labeled Initial Position and enter as follows Initial and Forecast Eye Positions
148. rd the storm or both could occur In reality the forecast is constantly evolving and each new advisory is just a snapshot of a fluid changing atmosphere and its effect on the storm It is rare indeed to have little or no change from advisory to advisory Toggle Arc Turns on or off the last defined Decision Arc Adjust Speed This option should be used with care in adjusting the assumed forward speed of the storm By default the speed is assumed from the forecast using the speeds averaged from the hours 79 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual before the arrival of 34 knot winds Speeding up the storm will cause an earlier decision time and slowing it down will delay it If you use this it will only be in effect until you change locations or any other item in Evacuation Option Settings at which time it will revert to the default forecast speeds 80 Utilities Export Import Export Import Tools are located under the UTILITIES heading of Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox The Export and Import Plot tools copy STM files in and out of the Hurrevac2010 s data directories Imported storms are placed in a special ExerciseSTMFiles data directory and appear in the program under the Exercise heading of the Archive Tab The GIS Export Tool generates shapefiles from HURREVAC s storm tracking display that can be loaded into outside mapping programs What is a Shapefile Shapefile is a widely adopted vector data format for describing geospatial points lin
149. re tides higher than normal within the 24 hour 2 3 Red Yellow Green Red Yellow Green Red Amount of rainfall forecasted for this county inthe Red Greater than 6 inches next 72 hours Yellow 3 to 6 inches Data not available for advisory gt 24 hours old Green Less than 3 inches or Higher than average spring tide Near average Lower than average tide Near high tide Near mid tide Near low tide Expanding over previous two BA advisories No expansion or decrease 1 Has the radius of maximum hurricane force winds 4 expanded from previous advisories Notes on the Storm Surge and Flooding Criteria Yellow Expanding since the last advisory Green No expansion or decrease D Could this storm generate a large amount of rainfall over the area This calculation is made using the HPC 3 day quantitative rainfall forecast Note that this item cannot be answered for archived storms since there is no rainfall forecast available for the historic period Is this a period of especially strong or weak tides Spring tides are about 20 higher than average high tides Neap tides are about 20 less than average A spring tide may exacerbate Is the storm approach projected to coincide with high tide Diurnal tide fluctuates as much as 5 feet in the New York area and can make a difference in the severity of storm surge water levels However it is difficult to make a tide timing determin
150. rent or Archive Data Tabs e River Gage e Tide Gage STORM FEATURES ANNOTATION EPORTS Evac Clearance Coordinates Measurement Surge Maps UTILITIES 59 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Evacuation Clearance Time The Evacuation Clearance Time Browser is accessed from the BROWSERS heading of Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox This browser is used to view HES evacuation clearance time for a select county NOTE These clearance times will only appear in the program if you have downloaded them using the State Plug In Setup To view clearance time tables open the browser window and then left click on a county to bring up the information in the browser panel You may use the Zoom and Pan tools of Map Toolbar to navigate to a county of interest HURREVAC 2010 Version 1 0 3 Hurricane Decision Support for Emergency Management Hm Setup E Update Now 12 04 41 PM files downloaded status unchanged fi Current Archives Map Cd Advisory C Outlook X Clearance Times hours for FL Lee SS OF STORM 5 Scenario Parallel OCCUPANCY Low Med High Worst RESPONSE Immediate 20 50 22 00 23 50 25 50 Rapid 22 50 24 00 25 50 25 50 Medium 23 00 24 50 26 00 26 00 S CLICK ON COUNTY or parish to display Evacuation Clearance Times hours from the Hurricane E vacuation Study for the area ANNOTATION REPORTS BROWSERS R iver Gage Tide Gage Coordina
151. revac2010 you may need to duplicate the proxy settings from the browser here Contact your network administrator if you have trouble finding these settings 88 Other Forms Download Schedule A Download Schedule is configured in Hurrevac2010 s Setup Form Hurrevac Setup Form State Plug Ins Connection Settings Download Schedule Local Defaults Timeline Time Zone Automatic Status Check Automatic Status Check ON if checked If this option is ON the program will periodically check the status of all new products onthe hurrevac com site and if found to be new will download a status file and refresh the program s display of storms Automatic Status Check Schedule 5min 10min 15min 20min 30min O thou 2h 3h Set Evac Options Hurrevac2010 will routinely poll for new storm advisories and other forecast data if you select Automatic Status Check in the Download Schedule When Hurrevac is left running on your desktop in monitoring mode a small status txt file is downloaded from data hurrevac com at the interval you have specified If files described in the status txt file are new or different that what already exists the program will download updates to your computer For more information about the program s download and monitoring functions refer to the Monitoring Ribbon topic 89 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Local Defaults Local Defaults selections are made in Hurrev
152. ries of images shows an example of the Risk Profile for Virginia from Tropical Storm Hanna Advisory 34 2008 HANNA Advy 34 September 5 2008 5 A amp M EDT Fri CurrentLocation 28 0 N 78 0 VV 65 mph Cat 0 20 mph gr 3 pv y Sun 2 PM 45mph SSCat 0 movg 39mph Sun 2 AM 45mph SSCat 0 movg 29mph 3 M Sat 2 PM 50mph SSCat 0 movg 22mph id Sat 2 AM 70mph SSCat 0 movg 18mph ri 2 PM 70mph SSCat 0 movg 16mphi Trop Storm Watch 120 Special Tools State and Local Topics Hurricane Risk Profile State for Virginia Tropical Cyclone Advisory 34 Date Time FRI 09 05 08 05 EDT A Risk Area Definition Indicator Level AY Critical i Of Concem RY Is a Virginia Locality within NHC 72 or 120 hour Red Within 48 hours 1 average forecast error cone Yellow Within 96 hours In 28 hr Error Ellipse Green gt 96 hrs or not in Error Cone Are NHC Watch or Warnings in effect for Virginia Red Hurricane Warning 2 coast Yellow TS Warning or Hurricane Watch Trop Storm Warning Green TS Watch or None Highest Coastline NHC 64kt wind probability from Greater Than 18 3 Cape Lookout NC to Chincoteague V Yellow 11 to 18 2 12 for 50 50 for 3461 Green Less Than 11 Increase or decrease of maximum probability since Red Increased in Percent last advisory Yellow Remained Same Percent Decreased 3 to 2 Green Decreased in Percent Forecast peak wind in Virg
153. riod 42 Reports Error Swath Report The Error Swath Report is accessed from the REPORTS heading of Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox This report is an analysis of counties or parishes located within the Error Swath or white cone surrounding a storm s forecast track Counties within the error swath or fringe winds area bordering the error swath have a chance of eventually being affected by the storm GB Map Advisory Report 0 ee Report for Hurricane Katrina Based on Advisory 22 Issued 08 28 05 8AM EDT OLD Advisory Error Swath Affected List 439 Items E Location Time Of Peak May Be As Early OR As Late As Winds Possible LA Terrebonne Around 08 29 10E EE 04E 08 29 16E Max Winds near Eye an Winds a Eve ax Wi ae Mar We Eve an Winds a Ev an Wi a Ev Mor Winds a Eve Mar Winds Eve Mar Winds a Eve ax Wede Ev Mor Winds a Ev ax Vids rae an Wa Ev en Wi a Ee Hat Wd rea Ee mA am am A am AA gt For each reported county indication is given of how early or how late the center could cross the area assuming average error late and average error early as well as the time implied by the advisory as the median arrival time The Winds Possible heading indicates whether the county is within the actual error cone making Max Winds from the storm s core possible or within only the tropical storm force fringe wind area The report s data is initially sorte
154. screen by saying Filter SOME When the facility list is not filtered it is denoted in the Filter tab by saying Filter ALL Facilities Filter Filter Choices List ALL Facilities List SELECTED using filters below Jurisdiction Owner Facility Type CT Fairfield NJ Bergen NJ Essex NJ Hudson NJ Middlesex NJ Monmouth NJ Union NY Bronx NY Brooklyn NY Dutchess Manhattan NY Nassau NY Putnam NY Queens NY Staten Island NY Suffolk NY Westchester AMTRAK Long Island Ferry Operator Long Island Jurisdiction MTA Bridges and Tunnels MTA Long Island Railroad MTA Metro North MTA New York City Transit Nassau County Nassau County Bridge Authority New Jersey DOT New Jersey Transit New York City DOT NY State DOT Region 10 NY State DOT Region 11 NY State DOT Region 8 State Thruway Authority Port Authority of NY and NJ Suffolk County Westchester County Airport Bus Depot Ferry Highway Bridge Highway Surface Highway Tunnel Rail Rail Station Rail Tunnel Rail Yard Select All Select All Select All NYC Metro Hazard Type Wind Affected CANCEL Facility Options To view change the underlying facility clearance time components press the Set Facility Options button In the Mobilize time Evacuate time Closure time and Total time columns here you see the default number of hours required for each category of storm CAT 1 2 3 4 5 Surge
155. splayed on the map Wind ranges wind swath and error swath formerly discrete display modes in Hurrevac2000 can now be shown in combination as storm features Additional forecast attributes such as watches and warnings and wind probabilities also appear under the STORM FEATURES heading of the Toolbox Available Storm Features e Hourly Wind Ranges e 72 Hour Wind Swath e Hourly Error Ellipses e 120 hr Error Swath e Watches Warnings e Wind Probabilities e Actual Track Ahead e Alternate Track e Advisory Overlays e Briefing Display LT 8 Hourly Wind Ranges C 72 hr Wind Swath Hourly Error Elipses H 120 hr Error Swath Watches w aminas C wind Probabilities C Actual Track amp head H Alternate Track amp Advisory Overlays C Briefing Display ANNOTATION REPORTS BROWSERS UTILITIES 20 Storm Features Hourly Wind Ranges This display shows storm position and size at a certain hour of the forecast Concentric rings represent the extent of tropical storm force winds 34kt or 39mph blue 50kt or 5 8mph winds in yellow and hurricane force 64kt or 74mph winds in red The Hourly Wind Ranges display defaults to the initial position Hour O of the latest advisory Use the Time button at the edge ofthe map view to advance the storm along its hea track and the Time button to return to earlier hours Wind ranges
156. t 1 or 2 Cat 2 hurricane Green Tropical storm or lower Difference in central pressure from last advisory Red Decrease by more than 5 mb No change 0 millibars rb 941 to 941 mb Yellow Decrease by less than 5 mb or Same Green Increase Do hurricane force winds normally reach this Red Hurricane Force 64 kts 74 county in a storm with this strength and forward mph or greater speed Yellow 50 to 63 kts 58 to 73 mph Not in error cone Green Less than 50 kts B8 mph or not in error cone 1 What is the storm category at the present time and position Remember that this rating indicates the storm s observed strength at its initial position in the forecast advisory It may be many hours before the storm is predicted to make landfall and by this time it may have weakened Storms typically decrease in intensity as they head north and encounter cooler waters D What is the forecasted storm category at the time when the storm is closest For reasons described in Item 1 this may be a more appropriate assumption for New York s Evacuation Options settings than the default choice of the maximum category over the entire forecast period Is the storm intensifying Central pressure is inversely proportional to storm intensity A storm observed to drop in pressure or maintain a low pressure over several approaching advisories is cause for concern and may warrant selection of a higher storm category for New York s Evacuation Options than t
157. ted Click on a facility to highlight it in blue and use the CTRL key to make a selection of multiple facilities If closed with the Save Exit button the underlying report will refresh with adjusted times If closed with the Cancel button the time modifications from this Facility Options session will be discarded The Reset to Original button is used to return to default values thereby discarding modifications from all sessions 150 Special Tools Set Edit Facility Options To add or subtract hours enter the value in the box enter to subtract and select Apply Apply to Selected Facilities is an option for facilities highlighted in blue using CTRL click Mobilize Time Offset hrs 1 Evacuation Time Offset hrs Close Time Offset hrs APF elected Apply to ALL Facilities Below Mobilize time hrs Evacuate time hrs Closure time hrs Total time hrs Facility Type US 46 MP 69 9 Surge 4 74 4 4 4 41 18 5 20 5 23 22 26 8 26 arara raran 76767676 us7205 72327258725 6787 6 6 1057057232725872 n merme ouo oraraa 678776 6 1057205722725872 N 7474747488 67875 6 6 us720572327 58725 6787576 6 s720572327 58725 5757575 6 1057057232725872 4 In the screen shot above times have been adjusted for NJ DOT facilities The Filter button was first used to limit the list
158. tes Measurement UTILITIES About County Clearance Times Stronger storms threaten a greater portion of the population and therefore require longer evacuation periods At least one table or matrix exists for each storm category 1 5 High tourist occupancy holiday weekend for instance and slow response public apathy will lead to longer evacuation periods as well Each county s HES has at least one Standard evacuation scenario but there may be others as well In County versus Out of County for example The Clearance Time Browser should be used to consider all possible evacuation scenarios tourist occupancy levels and response times Decide which settings will be used in Hurrevac s Evacuation Decision Timing based upon a review of the HES documentation and discussions with your emergency management colleagues 60 Browsers Coordinates Measurements The Coordinates Measurements Browser is accessed from the BROWSER heading of Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox This browser can be used to determine the latitude longitude coordinates of a map location and to make measurements of distance Coordinates of the cursor on the Tracking Map are shown in the browser at all times To record a measurement of distance left click on the map to begin a segment and left click again to end the segment You can continue adding segments to the measurement with left clicks HURREVAC 2010 Version 1 0 3 Hurricane Decision Support for Emergency M
159. the or JTWC has forecast a specific position the storm center could end up anywhere within the ellipse at that time with 66 level of confidence Error ellipses can be useful for timing functions when a storm is distant and the uncertainty great 23 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Error Swath The large white swath surrounding the forecast track in this display represents the Average Forecast Error or region in which the storm center is most likely track within the next Ss NS i 72 hours 3 days Winds of tropical storm force or greater AST 72 hour error fringe winds might occur in the hatched area ifthe storm lt tracked at the outer edge of the error swath Extending IN eye beyond the 72 hour swath the transparent area bordered by a gray ellipse represents the Average Error Swath for 73 to 120 hours 5 days NN The Error Swath button at the edge of the map view toggles the view between error swath only error swath fringe winds and no display Left click to turn the display on and off Right click to change the display type These operations are also duplicated in the Toolbox under the Storm Features Error Swath heading You can use the companion Error Swath Report for finding out which counties are affected and by how much Background Information The error swath is a composite of the error ellipses published by the NHC and JTWC each year for forecast hours 12 24 36 4
160. the heavy vertical line is displayed in boxes below the graph MLLW or Mean Lower Low Water represents the average of the lowest of the tides during the day typically there are two one lower than the other So height MLLW represents the height of the water above this low reference value Predicted values are the values computed by using the NOAA Tidal Harmonics algorithms for each gage each gage has a different set The Residual shown is the Tidal Anomaly computed by subtracting the Predicted from the Observed reading Positive numbers represent tide above normal and negative represent tide below normal Tide gage readings are updated at data hurrevac com about once an hour but there is some lag to the NOS data so expect some gage data to be between 1 and 2 hours old even when just downloaded The residual or anomaly is the most important data and is usually quite slow to change except as the center of a storm approaches So in most cases a fairly good estimate can be made of the current tidal height by using the most recent hour s residual and applying it to the current hour 67 Utilities UTILITIES is a heading within Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox Available Utilities e Storm Data Entry e Historical Scan e Map Default Settings e Evacuation Option Settings e Decision Arc e Exercise Track Wizard e Export Import STORM FEATURES C 2 T gt gt REPORTS BROWSER
161. tiple tabs Hurrevac2010 now employs View Tabs for switching back and forth between the map view a text viewer and any number of reports you have generated Tree view style presentation of available data layers As seen in Windows File Explorer and in many map programs Hurrevac2010 employs hierarchical lists as a more intuitive way to scan and view available data layers The Current tree view maintains a complete list of live What s New in Hurrevac2010 storms and other forecast information current rainfall flood outlook gage data etc with check boxes beside each one to control its display on the map A tree view is also employed in the Toolbox replacing the drop down menu system Operations previously located in Hurrevac2000 s menus now appear under the following expandable headings of the Toolbox STORM FEATURES ANNOTATION REPORTS BROWSERS and UTILITIES Improved graphics with transparency and GIS capabilities Items such as wind swaths error swaths and rainfall isopleths which obscure the underlying map in Hurrevac2000 are now displayed with partial transparency Thanks to the transparency it s now possible to effectively display multiple storm features i e wind ranges and error swath together Base map resolution has been improved as well Hurrevac2010 s mapping functions are now handled by a Geographic Information System GIS engine with data layers in shapefile format With this new GIS platform HURREVAC should eventually hav
162. to be taken at times relative to various storm events For instance if you wish to start closing bridges 3 hours before 34 knot sustained winds then specify 34 kt as the event and minus 3 for the offset specify action then click on Add To List Results will be available in the Wind Timing Single Location and Evac Timing Single Location Lists when the Timeline Option button on the list box is toggled on Time Offset in whole 34kt 33mph 50kt 58mph 64kt 74mph Eye hours negative for hours before event Evac Decision Time only available for counties with clearance times HOURS Offset hours 34kt 39mph E Begin bridge closures Evac Decision Press conference Storm Event Action to be taken Add To List Delete Selected Line Sort List by Offset The Timeline feature allows you to specify Standard Operating Procedure type actions to be taken at times relative to any of the following storm events e arrival of the 34kt winds e arrival of the 5Okt winds e arrival of the 64kt winds e time of eye s closest approach e evacuation decision time available only if a county clearance time is installed Results will be available in the Wind Timing single location and Evacuation Timing single location reports when the Timeline Option button on the report is toggled on 91 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual Time Zone Time Zone is a tab on Hurrevac2010 s Setup Form
163. ult Evacuation Settings 1 Category of Storm The default setting is the maximum wind predicted at any one time over the 120 hour forecast period however if the maximum wind is within 5 knots of the next Saffir Simpson category the category is bumped up one step as insurance You may wish to change this setting if for example your EM office has a policy of evacuating for one category higher than forecast as added insurance Conversely New England locations considering the threat from a Cat 4 or 5 storm still well south may want to drop the storm category because the storm is forecast to be much less intense once over the cooler waters of the Northeast 2 Tourist Occupancy This option defaults to medium but can be changed if necessary to a setting relevant for your area This setting tends to be time dependent and not area dependent For example a late October weekday would often find all areas with low tourist occupancies but a Labor Day weekend would find most all areas with very high occupancies 3 Response This also defaults to medium when the screen appears for the first time but should be set to a coordinated setting relevant for your area A nighttime evacuation would probably evoke a Slow response as would heavy rain ahead of the storm or weak media treatment of the threat 4 Optional Safety Buffer SB The default setting is zero but you can add up to 10 hours to the evacuation clearance times as a safety buffer or to allow
164. unty In County Times V Accomack Out Of Region Times VA Chesapeake 0558 Light US 58 Bypass around Suffolk Light V Chesapeake 0558 Heavy US 58 Bypass around Suffolk Heavy ne Cancel Continue Optional Safety Buffer SB in hours Hours Use 9 DoNot Use Decision Time ALERT On Off Set Location Type LOCATION amp ccomack TYPE In County Adjustments you make to evacuation options such as SS Category Tourist Occupancy and Response will also be reflected in the Decision Time Alert however they will not be retained upon exit of the program 98 Other Forms SLOSH Display SLOSH Sea Lake and Overland Surge from Hurricanes is a computer software model used by the NHC to predict potential storm surge for a storm of specific barometric pressure direction and speed of approach and wind field size Geography of the local area shape of the coastline depth of the ocean floor are also critical inputs into the model SLOSH is generally accurate plus or minus 2096 when given a known storm track SLOSH output is much less certain however when used on a hurricane forecast especially if the storm is still more than 24 hours from landfall For this reason emergency managers are advised to focus on maximum surge potential for a location rather than the predicted surge for a specific storm scenario These maximums are summarized in SLOSH MEOWs Maximum Envelope of Water and MOMs Maximum of Maximum HURREVA
165. urring or is forecast to occur during the outlook period e Likely blue hydro meteorological conditions indicate that significant flooding can be expected during the outlook period 57 Hurrevac2010 Users Manual e Possible black hydro meteorological conditions indicate that significant flooding could occur Such flooding is neither certain nor imminent IMPORTANT NOTE This Flood Outlook is intended to provide a general outlook for significant river flooding It is not intended to depict all small scale events such as localized flooding and or flash flooding This graphic will not depict minor river flooding as this implies only minimal or no property damage with possibly some public inconvenience Also these forecasts are constantly being revised and the HPC forecast shown in HURREVAC can be several hours old Please refer to products issued by local NWS offices for the latest official river forecasts and warnings 58 Browsers BROWSERS is a heading within Hurrevac2010 s Toolbox When you request an item under this heading a floating window appears over the program s main screen for the purpose of browsing data that appears on the map Browser windows can be dismissed or minimized when not in use Available Browsers e Evacuation Clearance Time e Coordinates Measurements e Surge Maps Gage browsers appear when you turn on either the river gage layer or tide gage layer These layers are accessed from both the Cur
166. us reports generated upon request The program s Monitoring Ribbon indicates the status of recent forecast data downloads Map Tools for commonly used functions are located on the left edge of the tracking map display and are grouped as follows manipulation zoom and pan functions e forecast hour buttons HURREVAC s display defaults to the initial position of the very latest advisory Use these buttons to view forecast information from some portion of the forecast from 0 to 120 hours e storm advisory buttons HURREVAC s display defaults to the very latest advisory In order to view storm status and forecast information from a previous advisory use these buttons e storm forecast features Display wind ranges for a discrete hour winds swath for forecast hours 0 72 error ellipse and error swath region where the storm in most likely to track Using HURREVAC e storm annotations Forecast and past track position labels watch and warning locations along the coastline wind probabilities Data Tabs Live storms and other forecast data appear in the list at top left on the Current Tab You can expand list headings and check list items on and off to control their display on the map Right clicking on a list item will bring up additional options for that particular layer The Archives Tab is used to view ended storms including a database of historical tracks dating back to 1865 Toolbox Additional operations of the
167. ware of new Hurricane Evacuation Study data or maps that are not listed here please ask your state Emergency Management Office to contact us about inclusion in this list Although Hurrevac2010 is designed to be generic and quickly usable by all areas to track hurricanes and time arrival of various wind parameters the program relies on certain plug ins in order to produce evacuation decision times show inundation areas show river gage maps and do other specialized duties for at risk states When you select state plug ins here files are downloaded to your computer from HURREVAC s support site and installed in appropriate folders under the program s installation directory This form should also be used to update plug ins when you are notified of changes It s important that you register for the program and notify the HURREVAC support team of any change in e mail address so that you can be kept informed of program updates Hurricane Evacuation Study Times FEMA USACE Hurricane Evacuation Studies HES assist emergency management offices in determining who should evacuate when a hurricane threatens and when they should leave HES clearance times the time it takes to complete an evacuation of a vulnerable population are needed in Hurrevac s Evacuation Decision Timing operations 86 Other Forms HES data is generally only available for coastal counties of hurricane prone states If you don t find your location

Download Pdf Manuals

Related Search

Related Contents

Instruction_Manual_V2 1_FR_EN_ind01    KeySonic KSK-8000 U  Lenovo C310 User's Manual  冷風機 クールファン  200307179 Updating B020-016 Owner`s Manual for the Web.qxd  Acata Asamblea Extraordinaria 5 de Marzo de 2015  Fronius Agilo 360.0-3 TL Fronius Agilo 460.0  

Copyright © All rights reserved. Failed to retrieve file