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TH!NK Suite User Guide 20121019.pptx

1. I Inconsistent An analyst would rate a hypothesis information pair inconsistent if the item of relevant information does not support the hypothesis being true For example the item of relevant information Subject was problematic employee could be considered inconsistent with the hypothesis Domestic lethal radical extremists to promote a domestic political agenda ll Highly Inconsistent An analyst would rate a hypothesis information pair highly inconsistent if the item of relevant information in a mpana way does not support the hypothesis being true For example the item of relevant information The bomb killed many people could be considered highly inconsistent with the hypothesis The group only intended to scare with a smoke bomb It is important to note that the subjectivity of these responses is understood While there is no way to make such ratings truly objective this tool possesses several functions that reduce bias when used properly Two main functions the survey and collaboration through the group matrix will be described in greater detail later To rate each relevant information hypothesis pair analysts can use the Survey or My Matrix The survey presents each pair in random order to reduce bias However it can be more time consuming than rating each pair using the matrix The tradeoff is likely to depend upon weighing time constraints and the need to minimize bias 2 Te mACH Survey
2. 35 Indicators Validator Project Home Page Add Single Scenario ti GLOBALVIICA i i ARC Indicators Validator aoe i Return to Home Page Return to Project Page New Scenario New Scenario nee Description New Scenario Copyright 2010 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Portions of this software are Patent Pending Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Any project member can manually add a single scenario or indicator The project owner either as a single entry as shown below or using the bulk edit function shown in the following section can add edit remove and approve items Those added by the project owner are automatically approved and items added by other analysts require approval Scenarios A scenario must be entered An additional description may be added Indicators A title and home scenario must be entered Users may also add a description and assumptions Home Scenario When selecting an indicator it is selected with a particular scenario in mind The scenario to which an indicator is initially attached is considered to be the home scenario When adding a single indicator the home scenario is chosen using a drop down menu Description Any additional information the user wants to include that is not captured elsewhere can be entered here Assumptions Assumptions that are used to make a decision about how an indicator relates to the s
3. Te mAC H Atlanta Bombing ACH2 GL BALYTICA This Site 3 aise Return to Project Page e Return to Home Page HANE p Progress Bar Please rate the c stency inconsistency of the following relevant gt consis j information and hypothesis Rate the Hypothesis Hypothesis Richard Jewell to get a job i yP i Information Pair Relevant Information FBI said Jewell fit profile of hero bomber II I N A C CC Next Progress Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved When using the survey each relevant information hypothesis pair is presented to the analyst in random order The analyst must rate each pair using the ratings discussed in the analysis section before he she moves to the next Hypotheses Analysts can move the mouse cursor over the hypothesis to display a pop up box giving the full name and description Relevant Information Analysts can move the mouse cursor over the item of relevant information to display a pop up box giving the full name and description of the item Click the desired rating II NA C or CC and then click Next to proceed A progress indicator lets analysts know how many questions they have left to score Analysts can partially complete the survey leave the project and then return later to score unrated pairs The Internet browsers Chrome Safari and Internet Explorer all automatically save the users responses when Next
4. projects If there is no lead hypothesis analysts can simply restate the title The demands of each individual project will generally determine the option chosen 11 Multiple Hypotheses Generator Data Input Hypothesis Generation Multiple PM ile te GL BALYTICA THINK Sue foo Return to Home Page Change Project State Next Step Save Changes Delete Project Atlanta Bomber Lesd Hypothesis Richard Jewel is the bomb Enter Edit Lead Hypothesis e Lead Hypothesis Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Step 1 Create the Lead Hypothesis The lead hypothesis used in the project creation step automatically populates here Analysts can make changes if needed at this point Then after making sure that the Project State box at the top shows Active they can save the project by clicking the Save button next to it To proceed click on Next Step 2 beneath the text box 12 Multiple Hypotheses Generator Data Input Hypothesis Generation Project state Active Change Project State nts and alternative explanations List Alternatives for Who What gg rl Peat When Where Why and How Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Step 2 Identify Key Components and Alternative Explanations Identify and list the key components for the lead hypothesis then ata plaus
5. t ap Owner range Pra Add Sdaciaion Delete Project Save Changes Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Only project owners can see the project configuration page From there they can edit the project title question description and or conclusion They can also change the state between Active Draft and Closed and change the project owner Finally project owners can add or remove analysts and delete the project or save changes Note This version of TH NK Suite uses form based authentication FBA Other versions have allowed for Windows authentication If a project owner wants to change the project ownership he she must make sure that an FBA authentication account changes to another one the same is true for Windows authentication Project ownership cannot be changed from an FBA account to a Windows account and vice versa 19 Te mACH Project Home Page Welcome demo01 pherson org This Site P TM Atlanta Bombing ACH1 A YTI Te mACH GLE L CA Project Scoring maxsu Return to Home Page Return to Project Page Group Matrix Atlanta Bombing ACH1 Project Configurdton Status ACTIVE Question To show the full capabilities of Te mACH A ECCE Prs i Hypotheses Analysts and z Progress Releva nt Survey My Matrix Group Matrix Information Analysts Approved demo01 pherson org owner G
6. Matrix Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved 46 Indicators Validator Group Matrix Discussion Board 1 FARC poisons cocaine to terrorize US population 111 Analysts looking at FARC internet site report chal Disregarded Indicators Analysts note postings by FARC on its Internet sit Matrix Discussion 2 FARC uses rampas to launch 3 FARC assassinates 4 Marjuana laced with poison Notes mortar attack on USSOUTHCOM Colombian ambassadors with IRA kills many in the vicinity of USI headai support u u L ASSUIPULI TS View Analyst Ratings Notes Assumptions Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved 47 Indicators Validator Return to My Matrix Indicators Validator lt lt GL BALYTICA Group Matrix THINK Suites Return to Project Page Most Discrim Return to Home Page Show Disregarded Indicators FARC IV1 To demonstrate the full capability of the Indicators Validator tool ne Show Disregarded Indicators Filter Analysts Currently displaying Your individual scenario list S1 FARC poisons cocaine to terrorize US population ii snai see Morease in reports of Cocame laced wih tome substance n several major otes Print Save ie centers receve quenes about what substances are most offen mxsd wih cocane to inci Indicator Lists Sorted by Export to Excel 14 There is an unusual spike in drug overdoses in several ctes N
7. and whether there are assumptions This is shown by a check mark for each indicator Users can view these details or add a note by clicking Notes or Assumptions Disregard Column Non diagnostic indicators can be disregarded in the My Matrix in two ways First the tool automatically disregards indicators that are not inconsistent or highly inconsistent with any scenarios Second analysts can place or remove a check in the box in this column to individually select the indicators they want to disregard Intersections Rating Clicking on the phrase Click to respond in cells where scenarios and indicators intersect called intersections will open a drop down menu from which users can select a rating Users should rate intersections across rows instead of down columns to avoid confirmation bias They can edit change ratings in the My Matrix by clicking the rating in the cell and selecting a new rating from the drop down menu Intersection Notes Inside each intersection is a note icon that when clicked launches a pop up window This window provides the scenario and indicator name and a chat log Users can leave comments but cannot view comments by other users Comments by other users can be seen using this feature in the Group Matrix see next section When entering a note the username date and time are logged with the comment Si the print icon to open a print preview screen that includes the matrix discussion a
8. is clicked However when using Firefox tested as of version 3 6 20 the survey does not automatically save responses 28 Te mACH My Matrix Return to Project Page mme demo01 pherson org Atlanta Bombing ACH1 N mao Group Te mACH GL BALYTICA pare Return to Home Page My Matrix Print Save p nm Export to Excel Filter Analysts i s Relevant information Cred H1 Domestic lethal radica Disgruntled contractors nternational terrorists as Richard Jewel to get a Notes extremists to p tof domestic pol O Notes cc Oadby mastica fon Source URI Ri2S Bomb consisted of Information N t 0 Notes o dna Credibility T Gaby tato Assumptions isa Credibility gt e pecs ifi H c 3 Crea cr ion Justification pece UN Aquaginee Credibility Justification Rate Each Hypothesis ource UA Information Pair o Nats I x Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Hypotheses These are located in the cells at the top of the columns Analysts can move the mouse cursor over the hypothesis to display a pop up box giving the full name and description Relevant Information These are located in the rows of the first column Analysts can move the mouse cursor over the item of relevant information to display a pop up box giving the full name and description of the item Credibility This column shows the credibility score Low credibility is displayed as a solid oran
9. FBA authentication account changes to another one the same is true for Windows authentication Project ownership cannot be changed from an FBA account to a Windows account and vice versa 34 Indicators Validator Project Home Page Return to Project Page Visone GemcOl OPO gp Indicators Validator GL BALYTICA Project Scoring Group Matrix mxs lt Return to Home Page Indicator Lists FARC IV1 Analysts and Scenarios Progress Indicators ate the full Capability of the indicators Validator tool Scenerios Analysts FARC poisons cocaine to terrorize Ul pulatic FAR demo01 pherson org IC uses rampas to launch mortar ai J USSOUTHCOM headquarters in Mami ates Co owner demo02 pherson or FARC assassinates Colombian ambassadors with IR 9 suooon demo03 pherson org Manpana laced wth po c military bases Awaiting Approval Tithe new tem n art C There are no tems to approve Indicators th rested By dome enar Sta o moO 1 pherson og FARC poisons cocaine to terronze US Approve are no queued emais ubstance in population D1 pherson os aine to terronze US v i e 3 DEA chemists see increase in repons 0 eae rim Items Awaiting Approval Queued E Mails 35 Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved The project page provides a summary of the status of the project to the users For project owners the project page contains ad
10. and approve items Those added by the project owner are automatically approved and items added by other analysts require approval Hypotheses A hypothesis must be entered An additional description may be added Relevant Information A title must be entered Users may also add a description source URL assumptions a credibility score and a credibility justification Description Any additional information the user wants to include that is not captured elsewhere can be entered here Assumptions Assumptions that are used to make a decision about how an item of relevant information relates to the hypotheses should be recorded here While this is subjective it allows for as much disclosure as possible about the process in assessing consistency Also over time an assumption may change in its relevance and or credibility Source This is for the user to record the source of the relevant information URL If the source came from a website the URL can be entered here Credibility Rating and Justification Analysts can rate an assumption as having low credibility being credible or having high credibility Below this rating is a text box where analysts can enter the justification for this decision Note When adding relevant information each item should contain only a single item of information upon which an evaluation will be made 22 Te mACH Project Home Page Bulk Add Edit Hypotheses Ema CH BAIA a a co Return to Projec
11. demo0i pherson demo01 pherson demo0i pherson or demo0i pherson demo0il pherson org demo0i pherson org About T JE My Settings Sign in as Different User Request Access Sign Out Personalize this Page THINK Suite General Home Page THINK Suite THINK Suite Akar Item My Regional Settings My Alerts Account secmembershipprovider demo01 pherson org Name demo01 pherson org E Mail demo01 pherson org About Me Picture Department Job Title SIP Address Created at 2 10 2012 5 49 PM by fhoque nearinfinity com Last modified at 2 10 2012 7 07 PM by demo01 pherson org Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved THINK Suite General Home Page Request Access Use this form to request access to the resource You are currently signed in as demo01 pherson org Type your request and then dick Send Request Supply a description of the action you were taking and the URL you were trying to reach Send Request HINK Suite General Home Page Personalize th THINK Suite _ gt Multiple Hypothe Generator 302 New Te macn New Indicators Validator VIVI Atlanta 45 Atlanta ACH2 Atlanta Bomber Atlanta Bombing ACHI EMIC ACH mic ACH 2 EMIC Demo EMIC Indicators EMIC indicators 2 MRO FARC 1V2 Greece Berk Attack Jonathan Luna MMG Luna 1 Walmart Walmart NHG Projects Contiibute To There are no items to s
12. matrix The tradeoff is likely to depend upon weighing time constraints and the need to minimize bias 42 Indicators Validator Survey Indicators Validator i GLOBALYTICA eK Sue lt Return to Home Page Return to Project Page Survey Progress a Progress Bar How likely are you to see this indicator if this scenario emerges Scenario FARC poisons cocaine to terrorize US population Indicator There are reports of FARC meetings and Rate the Scenario communications with the IRA Indicator Pair HU OU OC OLOHL Next Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved When using the survey each scenario indicator pair is presented to the analyst in random order The analyst must rate each pair using the ratings discussed in the analysis section before he she moves to the next Scenarios Analysts can move the mouse cursor over the scenario to display a pop up box giving the full name and description Indicators Analysts can move the mouse cursor over the indicator to display a pop up box giving the full name and description of the item Click the desired rating HU U C L HL and then click Next to proceed A progress indicator lets analysts know how many questions they have left to score Analysts can partially complete the survey leave the project and then return later to score unrated pairs The Internet browsers Chrome Safari and Internet Explor
13. the analyst who was just added and repeat the process Once the project owner has finished adding analysts he she can click Create Project Upon creation a progress gear appears while the project is being created which gives a tip about adding hypotheses and or relevant information Note After the project is created the project owner can go to the project configuration page to add and or remove analysts 33 Indicators Validator Project Configuration Indicators Validator Tai Return to Project Page GLOBALYIICA 7 Edit prete S Return to Home Page Project Title State Change Project segno Edit Description acters remann Add Remove Analysts Y zones Save Changes Change Project gt PET i SAPR 7 Owner cassa Add Conclusion Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Only project owners can see the project configuration page From there they can edit the project title question description and or conclusion They can also change the state between Active Draft and Closed and change the project owner Finally project owners can add or remove analysts and delete the project or save changes Note This version of TH NK Suite uses form based authentication FBA Other versions have allowed for Windows authentication If a project owner wants to change the project ownership he she must make sure that an
14. the hypotheses The relevant information that is consistent or non applicable with all but one hypothesis is considered highly useful in eliminating hypotheses Also information that is consistent with only one hypothesis has the potential to be a diagnostic indicator Specifically CC Highly Consistent An Wa would rate a hypothesis information pair highly consistent if the item of relevant information strongly supports the hypothesis being true For example the item of relevant information There is a history of terrorist attacks on the Olympics could be considered highly consistent with the hypothesis International terrorists planted the bomb as part of a jihadist campaign against America C Consistent An analyst would rate a hypothesis information pair consistent if the item of relevant information supports the hypothesis being true For example the item of relevant information Georgia Militia with stockpile of bombs for war with government could be considered consistent with the hypothesis Domestic lethal radical extremists to promote a domestic political agenda NA Non Applicable An analyst would rate a hypothesis information pair non applicable if the item of relevant information is not relevant to the hypothesis presented For example the item of relevant information Jewell appeared on news programs could be considered not relevant to the hypothesis Disgruntled contractors to protest losing a job
15. the intersection Discussion Board This function works as explained above in the My Matrix section of this user manual In addition users can now see comments left by others Filter Analysts This allows the user to assess how the results may vary if certain analysts or groups of analysts are removed When the user clicks Filter Analysts a drop down menu appears Keeping the cursor in the drop down menu click the checkbox next to each user s name to include or exclude them from the group matrix Click Update to refresh the matrix with the filtered results Hypotheses and relevant information will automatically be resorted as necessary based on the filtered users responses Currently Displaying alerts the user to which user results are included in the group matrix display In the column to the right of the group matrix as with the individual matrix for each item of relevant information there is a place where analysts can enter notes assumptions credibility ratings and source URLs Analysts can also view details about each item of information such as ID credibility notes source URL and description by hovering over the title Click the Discuss icon in the upper left corner to read and participate in a cell level discussion the number inside the chat bubble shows the number of discussion posts currently on that discussion board This chat is recorded and available for all to see so that disputes may be reso
16. top of the matrix and the least to the bottom Intersections Moving the cursor into a cell reveals five important aspects 1 Color The level of consensus or disagreement is represented by each cell s background color A legend at the top of the matrix shows the color coding for consensus disagreement No Ratings Yet A white cell showing that either one or none of the analysts have rated that intersection Consensus A green cell showing that all analysts agree on consistency or inconsistency Mild Dispute A peach cell showing that the disagreement is between NA and C CC or I II Large Dispute An orange cell showing that the disagreement is between C and Il or between and CC Extreme Dispute A pink cell showing that the disagreement is between CC and Il 2 Tie This is an icon showing a tie between two scores Analysts can roll over the tie indicator to see details When the tie is between C and CC or and Il then the cell is indicated as a CC or Il respectively 3 Notes This function works as explained above in the My Matrix section of this user manual In addition analysts can see comments left by others 4 Individual Responses Each cell shows how many analysts have responded out of the total number e g 2 2 of participants Moving the cursor over the icon in the upper right corner of the cell shows how each user rated the intersection 5 Consensus Rating In the center of each cell is the consensus rating for
17. 4 e Project Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Step 4 Edit and Accept Generated Hypotheses At this point the Multiple Hypotheses Generator sorts the hypotheses according to those rated most to least plausible The toolkit displays the list with all hypotheses to the left and the list of accepted hypotheses to the right Those rated illogical implausible are not included Click Add to move accepted hypotheses into the Accepted column to the right From there analysts can select and add individual hypotheses to the accepted list These accepted hypotheses can be printed or imported into the Te mACH tool in Step 5 To proceed click on Next Step 5 beneath the text box 15 Multiple Hypotheses Generator Print Save Create New Te mACH Project Multiple Hypotheses i Ganeraior el Change Project State RIEN Return to Home Page New Te mACH Project Title New tes renseno Te mACH Create New Project Te mACH ste Question Project Save Print Selected Delete Project Hypotheses a Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Step 5 Save Print and or Create a Te mACH Project Click Print to print the accepted and non accepted hypotheses Click Save to save the current Multiple Hypotheses Generator project in THINK Suite To export to a Te mACH project enter a
18. GL BALYTI CA The Thought Leader In Analytic Technique THINK SUITE USER GUIDE THINK Suite General Introduction To provide instruction and guidance for using TH NK Suite Assumes familiarity with Multiple Hypothesis Generation Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Indicators and Indicator Validation Three tools Multiple Hypotheses Generator Te MACH and Indicators Validator When used properly can add rigor and save time Should not be used as a black box but to facilitate the analytic process Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved THINK Suite General Access to TH NK Suite s ee The full e mail address S gn In associated with account User name Password Randomly assigned but users can change Sign In this in the home page Sign me in automatically Reset password User name Users can reset password Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Sign in using form based authentication FBA This is similar to signing in to a webmail account such as gmail or yahoo Users can click the box underneath the login screen to be signed in automatically when revisiting the site When the account is initially set up the password is randomly generated and assigned Reset Password will reset the password and send an automated e mail with the new password to the e mail address associ
19. L tie ssumptions Daligity Justification View Analyst Ratings Credibility Justification Source URL 8 16 2011 12 39 18 PM I think it is pretty clear we should focus our time on a domestic threat actor We do have some conflicts that we should resolve but I think that s the best course of action Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved 32 Indicators Validator Project Creation THINK Suite GLOBALVIICA Create Indicators Validator M Project Validator Project Title Project Description rolec Tite Indicators Validator Project a Description Add Analysts i ee Create Indicators jaa S cerai E Validator Project f Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Click the New Indicators Validator logo to the left on the THINK Suite Home Page to create a new Indicators Validator project When the project creation page loads enter a project title and question The project title must be different than all others in THINK Suite The project owner can enter a project description and invite analysts to join To invite analysts type either a part of or the entire username in the search box in the Analysts section Select each analyst from the drop down menu displaying the search results then click Add To continue adding analysts click in the white space next to
20. ars Keeping the cursor in the drop down menu click the checkbox next to each user s name to include or exclude them from the group matrix Click Update to refresh the matrix with the filtered results Indicators will automatically be resorted as necessary based on the filtered users responses Currently Displaying alerts the user to which user results are included in the group matrix display In the column to the right of the group matrix as with the individual matrix for each indicator there is a place where analysts can view and enter notes and assumptions Click the Discuss icon in the upper left corner to read and participate in a cell level discussion the number inside the chat bubble shows the number of discussion posts currently on that discussion board This chat is recorded and available for all to see so that disputes may be resolved and consensus reached Each entry is recorded with a date time stamp and the user name The chat function can also help to explore and often resolve disagreement 45 Indicators Validator Group Matrix Analyst Chat Print Save Indicators Validator Discussion 2 amp 5 3 FARC assassinates Colombian ambassadors with IRA support 113 Known FARC sympathizers are reported purchasing suspicious quantities of liquid petroleum gas canisters Submit demo01 pherson org 2 24 2012 6 43 17 AM Demo03 why did you rate this as highly unlikely Chat Window Pops Out of
21. ated with the user account Note Only one user can be logged in at a time in a browser Multiple tabs or windows can be used but not for multiple users However multiple users can be logged in simultaneously in different browsers such as one user in Internet Explorer another in Chrome etc THINK Suite General Access to TH NK Suite Click here to access THINK Suite Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved THINK Suite General Home Page THINK Suite GL BALYTICA Create New Projects My Projects Access existing projects Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Within each project category clicking on the project title links the user to the project page for that project The links under Status along with the Edit icon links the user to the project configuration page This is only true if the user is also the project owner For projects in which the user is a contributor but not owner he she will not see the edit icons or status column This is because only project owners can edit projects and contributors do not have access to a project while it is still in draft mode If a project is active then contributors see it under Projects Contribute To and if it is closed then they see it under Closed Projects Note If the Home Page does not show immediately or takes a while to load click on the THINK Su
22. atrix see next section When entering a note the username date and time are logged with the comment Print Click the print icon to open a print preview screen that includes the matrix discussion and notes separated by page breaks Export Click the export icon to export the matrix and all underlying data to excel Discussion Board The discussion board allows users to comment on the matrix conclusions ideas etc To access either click the chat icon next to the print icon or scroll to the bottom of the page Users can leave comments but cannot view comments by other users Comments by other users can be seen uang this feature in the Group Matrix see next section When entering a note the username date and time are logged with the comment Refresh Clicking this icon will refresh the matrix sorting the matrix rows by diagnosticity and hypotheses by inconsistency using all the latest scores When there is a large amount of information it is important for the analyst to pay attention to the changed order if refreshed prior to completing the matrix It is recommended that the analyst does not sort the matrix until he she has completed it If the user has left the page when he she returns the matrix will be automatically sorted Once the matrix is completed it automatically sorts the rows according to diagnosticity 29 Te mACH Group Matrix Return to Project Page Te mAC Hm Atlanta Bombing ACH1 GL BALYTICA Re
23. cenarios should be recorded here While this is subjective it allows for as much disclosure as possible about the process in assessing consistency Also over time an assumption may change in its relevance and or credibility 36 Indicators Validator Project Home Page Add Single Indicator Indicators Validator New Indicator Indicator Details Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved 3 Indicators Validator Project Home Page Bulk Add Edit Scenarios ndicators Validator CLLBALYTICA FARC IV1 Return to Home Page Return to Project Page Scenarios New Scenarios Descriptions Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved An excel spreadsheet can be used to add and or edit items in bulk This is a useful feature to save time when there are many scenarios or indicators to add However this import function is only available in Internet Explorer Required and additional fields are the same in the bulk add edit feature as with adding a single item 38 Indicators Validator Project Home Page Bulk Add Edit Indicators Welcome demo01 pherson org L BALYTICA 5 Indicators Validator CLSBALYTIC FARC IV1 aee Return to Home Page ndicators a Return to Project Page A list of Indicators New Actons Settings E Title po j __ Home Scenario jv DEA chemests see increase in reports of di C poisons cocaine to les
24. ces are mos often mmed with cocane fo increase volume an Export to Excel Currently Displayed ncreased duk purchases of posonous substances such as arsenc Indicator Lists Sorted by ciance Scenario and According to 8 Now c carbon Gent ied Det FARC leaders and drug dsindutors in the United Stat i imi abons are een 3 an ug dstrbutors wes Diagnosticity 3 Informants report a buzz on the street lo avod purchases of cocere No descroton 2 Border police report fewer sezures of bulk cash Reading south No descror or S2 FARC uses rampas to launch mortar attack on USSOUTHCOM headquarters in Mami 13 Knoan FARC sympatezers are reported purchasing suspoous Quantities of loud petroleum gas caristers No descroton 16 USSOUTHOOM employees tell ther supervisori that they are Deng approached by strangers and asked who works where in the complex No descroton Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved The Group List displays the indicators found as a group to be diagnostic for each scenario If there are not a sufficient amount of indicators for a given scenario then the next step is for the team to generate additional indicators and repeat the validation process 49
25. ck the New Te mACH logo to the left on the THINK Suite Home Page to create a new Te mACH project When the project creation page loads the person who created the project generally the project owner enters a project title and question The project title must be different than all others in THINK Suite The project owner can enter a project description and invite analysts to join To invite analysts type either a part of or the entire username in the search box in the Analysts section Select each analyst from the drop down menu displaying the search results then click Add To continue adding analysts click in the white space next to the analyst who was just added and repeat the process Once the project owner has finished adding analysts he she can click Create Project Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Upon creation a progress gear appears while the project is being created which gives a tip about adding hypotheses and or relevant information Note Projects can also be generated from the Multiple Hypotheses Generator tool refer to the Multiple Hypotheses Generator section for instructions Note After the project is created the project owner can go to the project configuration page to add and or remove analysts 18 Te mACH Project Configuration Edit Description Change Mia Ste Add Remove Analysts Change Project
26. ditional information This includes a link to the project configuration page a list of items awaiting approval and queued e mails Project Title The project page displays the project name project question and the project description in the upper left of the screen Scenarios This is where the project s scenarios are stored Project owners will see an edit icon next to all scenarios Each scenario row also shows the creator and approval status Beneath the scenario rows are links to Add new item and Bulk add edit scenarios Indicators This is where the project s indicators are stored Project owners will see an edit icon next to the indicators Each indicator row also shows the creator and approval status Beneath the indicator rows are links to Add new item and Bulk add edit indicators Note To use and or access the bulk add edit function for scenarios or indicators Internet Explorer is required For users who do not see the information after clicking the bulk add edit link they will have to download and install the latest Microsoft compatibility pack This compatibility pack allows FBA accounts to access all SharePoint functions Status The project status is displayed in the upper right corner of the project page If a project is in draft mode a reminder pops up for project owners to change the project status to Active to give analysts access Survey Matrix and Group Matrix To rate the project click eithe
27. e Submitted items e Approval status Newly approved items e Closed project e Re opened project Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Email Queue Automated emails are generated at various throughout points in the project The emails are combined into one digest style email and queued until either the project is activated the project owner manually sends the email or until 6 P M when the emails are automatically sent Analysts can choose how often to receive email notifications The project owner can see how many emails are waiting to be sent and send them as well Email Notifications Invitation to project sent to all analysts when the project is activated Submitted items sent to project owners reminding them to review the item Approval status sent to submitter of the item informing them when it is approved not approved Newly approved items sent to all analysts as a reminder for scoring Closed project sent to all analysts informing them of the conclusion reached Re opened project sent to all analysts notifying them that the project can be edited again 40 Indicators Validator Project Home Page lItem Status Suggested Only project owners and the analyst who suggested the item can view or edit it The item will not appear in the matrix at this stage Approved All analysts can see the item but only project owners can edit it Not approved Only the project owner and the analy
28. ead Richard Jewell planted a bomb to get a job Keeping the language easily readable while focusing on the unknown and relevant components can help in the scoring process Note In order for the generated hypotheses to read like sentences analysts can add articles and or other words to the alternatives To use the lead hypothesis shown in the Multiple Hypotheses Generator demo a hypothesis generated in this way yields Richard Jewell an anti personnel bomb on 27 July 1996 in Centennial Park to get a job pre positioned Instead if the what is changed to used an anti personnel bomb and the how is changed to that was pre positioned the sentence would be less awkward to read To proceed click on Next Step 3 beneath the text box 13 Multiple Hypotheses Generator Scoring Rate Plausibility from 1 5 Stars or Alternatively as eli International Terrorists Planted a bomb at Centenn a rk to promote a cause Domestic Terrorists Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to promote Lone Wolf Planted a bomb at Centenn International Terrorists Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to do harm Domestic Terrorists Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to do International Terrorists Planted a bomb ii to embarrass the US Lone Wolf Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to promote a cause Political Protestors Gone Awry Planted a bomb at Centenn a Park to promote a cause Hypotheses Disgrunt
29. emo02 pherson org Approved Gemo03 pherson org Awaiting Approval There are no tems to approve A new fem i Que E og Relevant Information wee a rns x Items Awaiting Sii si Approval an A 10 people at par ar maia di Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved The project page provides a summary of the status of the project to the users For project owners the project page contains additional information This includes a link to the project configuration page a list of items awaiting approval and queued e mails Project Title The project page displays the project name project question and the project description in the upper left of the screen Hypotheses This is where the project s hypotheses are stored Project owners will see an edit icon next to all hypotheses Each hypothesis row also shows the creator and approval status Beneath the hypothesis rows are links to Add new item and Bulk add edit hypotheses Relevant Information This is where the project s relevant information is stored Project owners will see an edit icon next to the relevant information Each relevant information row also shows the creator and approval status Beneath the relevant information rows are links to Add new item and Bulk add edit relevant information Note To use and or access the bulk add edit function for ei or relevant information Internet Explorer is required For users who do n
30. er all automatically save the users responses when Next is clicked However when using Firefox tested as of version 3 6 20 the survey does not automatically save responses 43 Indicators Validator My Matrix Group Matrix Indicator Lists Indicators Validator A GL BALYTICA Return to Project Page l My Matrix Sorted Return to Home Page Filter Analysts Currently displaying Your individ Disregard Indicator 1 FARC poisons cocaine lo 2 FARC uses rampas to S3 FARC assassnates S4 Marjuana laced with poison Notes terrorize US population launch mortar attack on Colombian ambassadors wih iis many in the vicinty of sxs Print Save 38 TO USSOUTHCOM headaf IRA support USI Export to Excel HL HU w Notes Assumptions HL 0 Notes di dana Rate the Scenario Select to rrm w Indicator Pair Disregard Indicator L Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Scenarios These are located in the cells at the top of the columns Analysts can move the mouse cursor over the scenario to display a pop up box giving the full name and description Indicators These are located in the rows of the first column Analysts can move the mouse cursor over the indicator to display a pop up box giving the full name home scenario and description of the item Notes Column The cell shows the user if and how many notes are present in a chat icon
31. g approval are highlighted in yellow Project owners edit the items and change their status to approved to add them to the matrix or not approved to reject them Once selected the designation is permanent If an error was made the item will need to either be deleted or resubmitted Suggested Only project owners and the analyst who suggested the item can view or edit it The item will not appear in the matrix at this stage Approved All analysts can see the item but only project owners can edit it Not approved Only the project owner and the analyst who submitted the item can see it This item will not appear in the matrix Only project owners can edit the item 26 Te mACH Analysis e Rate the consistency of each item of relevant information pair with each hypothesis Purpose to discount hypotheses not supported by the relevant information Using either Survey or Matrix for rating e CC Highly Consistent e C Consistent e NA Non Applicable Inconsistent e Il Highly Inconsistent Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved At this step Te mACH pairs each item of relevant information with each hypothesis Analysts then rate each according to whether or not the relevant information is consistent with the hypothesis The purpose of this is to eliminate hypotheses that are not supported by the relevant information Therefore it is important to find information that is inconsistent with
32. ge circle with a white SES in N center Credible appears as a solid green circle and high credibility is a solid green circle with a white plus in the center Notes Column The cell shows the user if and how many notes are present in a chat icon and whether there are assumptions and credibility justifications This is shown by a check mark for each item of relevant information Users can view these details or add a note by clicking Notes Assumptions or Credibility Justification If an item of relevant information has a URL then a Source URL hyperlink will be located beneath Credibility Justification Clicking this link will open the URL in the default browser Intersections Rating Clicking on the phrase Click to respond in cells where hypotheses and relevant information intersect called intersections will open a drop down menu from which users can select a rating Users should rate intersections across rows instead of down columns to avoid confirmation bias They can edit change ratings in the My Matrix by clicking the rating in the cell and selecting a new rating from the drop down menu Intersection Notes Inside each intersection is a note icon that when clicked launches a pop up window This window provides the hypothesis and relevant information name and a chat log Users can leave comments but cannot view comments by other users Comments by other users can be seen using this feature in the Group M
33. hange the state in Te mACH and Indicators Validator using the project configuration page State can be changed at the top of the main page in Multiple Hypotheses Generator Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved 10 Multiple Hypotheses Generator Project Creation THINK Suite mise GL BALYTICA lt Return to Home Page Create Multiple Hypotheses Generator Project Project Description Enter Project Title Enter Lead Hypothesis Create Project _ Project Cancel Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved 1 Click the logo to the left on the THINK Suite Home Page entitled Multiple Hypotheses Generator 2 Enter a project title and lead hypothesis The project title must be different than all others in THINK Suite Note For this tool a lead hypothesis is required However if there are multiple lead hypotheses e g various members of a team each have a separate lead hypothesis there are a couple of options The first would be to choose one and work though a single Multiple Hypotheses Generator project assuming all hypotheses become permutations to consider As long as all hypotheses become permutations the specific lead hypothesis chosen should not affect the outcome of this exercise in a meaningful way The second would be to work through each lead hypothesis in separate Multiple Hypotheses Generator
34. how this view Closed Projects There are no items to show this wiew Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Ty Add a Web Part Te macn Te mACH Mubple Hypotheses Generator Te mACH Te macn Te macn Teemacn Indicators Validator Indicators Vabdator Mutple Hypotheses Generator Indicators Valdator Indicators Valdator Multiple Hypotheses Generator Mutple Hypotheses Generator Te macn Mubple Hypotheses Generater Multiple Hypotheses Generater is Page Wekcrre demcO pterson crg This Ste M GL BALYTICA About THINK Suite dermo01 pherson org demo01 pherson org demo0i pherson org demo01 pherson org derno01 pherson org demo01 pherson org demo01 pherson org demo01 pherson org demo01 pherson org demo0i pherson org demo0i pherson org demo01 pherson org demo01 pherson org demo01 pherson org demo0i pherson org demo0i pherson org demo01 pherson org Draft Draft Active Active Active Draft Draft Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Active Change Password Ch addewed Part P THINK Suite General Project States Active All invited analysts can view and modify the project Draft Only project owners van view and modify the project Only in Te mACH and Indicators Validator Closed All analysts can view but not modify including the project owner Project owners can c
35. ible alternative explanations for each component The tool starts with three blank alternative component fields per hypothesis component Who What When Where Why and How The user can enter data into one two or three fields and can add more fields by clicking Add Another Alternative Alternatively the user can click Not Relevant to skip the component Note Not all spaces need to be filled Skip any components that are either known or irrelevant Since the Multiple Hypotheses Generator can generate many hypotheses skipping irrelevant components helps to keep the number of hypotheses down to a manageable level With each component there is a button at the top to indicate not relevant and a button at the bottom to move on to the next component Click the Next button with a green arrow to move to the next component Repeat until all components have been entered or deemed known irrelevant Note Once this step is completed the entered components and alternatives will no longer be editable However new components and alternatives can be added Note At the bottom of the screen the tool displays how many hypotheses are generated with each alternative added Note Analysts can leave the known and or irrelevant components blank In this example the what when where and how were all known and the who and why were unknown Language could be added so the permutation would instead r
36. ied Workers ed a bomb at C ot iegrunt or Plant at Centennial Pork zing a job Sorted According bomb tennisi Park to embarrass the US s t Domestic Terrorists Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to embarrass the US to Plausibility Ric d Jewell Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to be a hero Lone Wolf Planted a bomb at Centennial Park for losin Rating Disgruntied Workers Planted a b at Centenn gt o harm Political Protestors Gone Awry Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to embarrass the US ewell Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to do harm Jewell Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to embarrass the US pmb Next Step Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Step 3 Review and Rate Hypotheses According to Plausibility Click the stars or red circle with a dash to rate the plausibility of each hypothesis If the hypothesis is illogical or implausible click on the red circle For the rest click the stars with one being the least plausible and five being the most plausible Note Knowing certain combinations of components that do not make sense or are unlikely could help speed up the process For example if domestic extremists and international targets do not make sense together then hypotheses containing those two elements can be eliminated Note If an analyst stops part of the way through rating hypotheses the hypotheses are automatically resorted upon return Unrated hypotheses appear
37. indicator could appear should the scenario begin to emerge For example the indicator LeT purchases or acquires RDX bomb materials would be rated could with the scenario LeT multiple simultaneous targets with Hostage Taking U Unlikely An analyst would rate a scenario indicator pair unlikely if the indicator is unlikely to occur should the scenario begin to emerge For example the indicator LeT documents vugge mng several targets would be rated unlikely with the scenario LeT only attacks Taj Hotel with small arms and grenades HU Highly Unlikely An analyst would rate a scenario indicator pair highly unlikely if the indicator is highly unlikely to occur should the scenario begin to emerge For example the indicator LeT trains suicide bombers would be rated highly unlikely with the scenario LeT attacks multiple simultaneous targets with small arms and explosives It is important to note that the subjectivity of these responses is understood While there is no way to have such ratings be ruy objective there are several functions within this tool that reduce bias when used Propor o main functions are the survey and collaboration through the group matrix and will be described in greater detail following To rate each scenario indicator pair analysts can use the survey or matrix The survey presents each pair in random order to reduce bias However it can be more time consuming than rating each pair using the
38. ite icon in the upper left corner of the page HINK Suite General Home Page THINK Suite GL BALYTICA Atlanta 45 Te mACH Atlanta ACH2 Te mACH Multiple Hypotheses Generator Atlanta Bomber Multiple Hypotheses Generator Atlanta Bombing ACH1 Te mACH EMIC ACH Te mACH EMIC ACH 2 Te mACH EMIC Demo Te macn EMIC Indicators Indicators Validator EMIC Indicators 2 Indicators Validator EMIC MHG Multiple Hypotheses Generator pS ae New Te mACH FARC IVI Indicators Valedator Indicators Validator reece Bank Attack Multiple Hypotheses Generator nathan Luna MHG Multiple Hypotheses Generator Luna 1 Te mACH Walmart Multiple Hypotheses Generator 3 a a 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 a 3 3 3 3 3 7 Walmart MHG Multiple Hypotheses Generator Projects Contribute To There are no iterns to show in this view New Indicators Validator Closed Projects There are no iterns to show in this view Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Home Page Display Options View and update settings Sign in as a different user Sign out Personalize user home page Change display name Change Password eNote User name cannot be changed Display Options demo0i pherson org demo01 pherson org demo01 pherson org demo0i pherson c demo01 pherson demo0i pherson o demo01 pherson demo0i pherson demo0i pherson demo01 pherson demo01 pherson o
39. l Park to do harm international Terrorists Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to do harm Lone Wolf Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to promote a cause Political Protestors Gone Awry Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to promote a cause Disgruntied Workers Planted a bomb at Centennial Park for losing a job Political Protestors Gone Awry Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to do harm Lone Wolf Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to embarrass the US Domestic Terrorists Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to embarrass the US Richard Jewell Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to be a hero Lone Wolf Planted a bomb at Centennial Park for losing a job Disgruntied Workers Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to do harm Political Protestors Gone Awry Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to embarrass the US Richard Jewell Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to do harm Richard Jewell Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to embarrass the US Disgruntied Workers Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to embarrass the US She E Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Te mACH Project Creation THINK Suite GL BALYTICA i Mine oi Return to Home Page Te mACH Create Te mACH Project Project Title Project Question and Description Write your project question and des Te mACH Project Question Senn A Add Analysts Project Create New or ta _ Te mACH Project 18 Description Cli
40. lved and consensus reached Each entry is recorded with a date time stamp and the user name The chat function can also help to explore and often resolve disagreement Scoring The number next to each paths is the number of inconsistent items of relevant information While this is not a black box it can be a guide in assessing which hypotheses are the most inconsistent with the relevant information and may be discarded However analysts should also use their judgment when choosing which hypotheses to discard and not rely solely on this number 30 Te mACH Group Matrix Analyst Chat Export to Excel Te m AC Hm H3 Disgruntled contractors to protest losing a job RI25 Bomb consisted of different types of nails 4 Submit Close Discussion 352 demo01 pherson org 2 23 2012 11 12 47 PM Demo03 why did you feel this was consistent Chat Window Pops Out of Matrix Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved 31 Te mACH Group Matrix Discussion Board R136 Jewell appears on news programs Notes Information Assumptions e Rae et Credibility Credibility the bomb se Justification Ri44 Both Davis and Jewell asked people who the pack ber NA Ri48 Revelers were gone by the time Davis showed up Access Chat RI51 Witnesses didn t see who placed the pack M atrix Discussion Demo01 Source URL mm 0 Notes w Assumptions Credibility Justification Source UR
41. mation New Actions Settings A Title Descnpion X Source URL 100 000 people al park Case Study hito pheron ora Pybs Pybs hrs AT ae ho LE wounded Law Enforcement officers were inwedby Case Study the bomb _ Jewel proclaimed hero for spotting pack Case Study Rel usnt 4 Information Bombs theeats post explosion torpesa ara e ty ag Case Study 7 53 Details a Senb tussis pe eqicson Bomb thieats had been called in regular Case Study before the atack Man dressed s secunty guaid snesked A man diessed as secuity guard canyng Case Study Olympic Stadium before opening caremong a handgun sneaked into the Olympic Stadium before the opereng ceremony He wos released alte police determined he was Jewell helped cleat aiea piior to aitack Case Study not lirest History of Tesorist Attack on Olympics Case Study Georgia Milia with stockple of bombe for Case Study war with goverment Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Te mACH Project Home Page E Mail Email Queue Automated emails generated in the project are combined into one email and queued until e Project activation 6PM Eastern Time Project owner manually sends notifications e Email Notifications e Invitation to project Submitted items e Approval status Newly approved items e Closed project e Re opened project Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Email Queue Automated emails a
42. nalysts i Show Disregard indicator 1 FARC poisons cocaine to 2 FARC uses rampas to 3 FARC assassinato ize US population launch mortar attack on ssa Disregarded Filter Analysts roventi View 3 Indicat i Currently Displayed Hu fisc E Analyst ndica ors Po ssoumcon _ Chat Ratings 0 Notes Assumptions HU O Notes Assumptions HU Notes Assumption HU Notes Assumptions Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved The group matrix functions similar to the individual matrix in most ways Scenarios form the top row and each indicator is presented in a column to the left Each point of intersection represents a scenario indicator pair and the aggregated analyst ratings of each pair are presented in the group matrix However there are some notable differences and additional information explained below Indicators These are automatically sorted to move the most diagnostic items to the top of the matrix and the least to the bottom Intersections Moving the cursor into a cell reveals five important aspects 1 Color The level of consensus or disagreement is represented by each cell s background color A legend at the top of the matrix shows the color coding for consensus disagreement No Ratings Yet A white cell showing that either one or none of the analysts have rated that intersection Consensus A green cell showing that all analysts agree on consistency or inconsistency Mild Dispu
43. nd notes separated by page breaks Export Click the export icon to export the matrix and all underlying data to excel Discussion Board The discussion board allows users to comment on the matrix conclusions ideas etc To access either click the chat icon next to the print icon or scroll to the bottom of the page Users can leave comments but cannot view comments by other users Comments by other users can be seen using this feature in the Group Matrix see next section When entering a note the username date and time are logged with the comment Refresh Clicking this icon will refresh the matrix sorting the indicators by diagnosticity using the latest scores When there is a large amount of information it is important for the analyst to pay attention to the changed order if refreshed prior to completing the matrix It is recommended that the analyst does not sort the matrix until he she has completed it If the user has left the page when he she returns the matrix will be automatically sorted Once the matrix is completed it automatically sorts the rows according to diagnosticity 44 Indicators Validator Group Matrix FARG IV1 N My Matrix Indicators Validator GL BALYTICA indicator Lists ent Return to Project Page i Group NSA Return to Home Page s eo eal Show Disregarded Indicators MN Filter Analysts Currently displaying All No Rat iNPs Yet Consensus D Extreme Dispute Responses Total A
44. o conception Scenario and According to pd ul repon a buzz on the street 10 avod purchases of cocmne Diag nosticity No 15 Drug informants tak of special payotts 10 local drug Gatrbutors No descrotion 18 New communications are iGentified between FARC leaders ano drug Gistributors in the United States No descnption 19 Local US law enforcement reports increased Duk purchases of posoncus substances such as arsenc descrption 12 Border police report fewer seizures of bulk cash heading south descrotion egard 16 The FARC posts statements on the inteme saying wil retahate agans the Unitec States for supporting Coiomtia Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved The My List displays the indicators each individual analyst has found to be diagnostic for each scenario 48 Indicators Validator Group List Retum to My Matrix Group Matrix Indicators Validator L BALYTICA rana Site Return to Project Page Most RSS Return to Home Page Show Disregarded Indicators FARC IV1 To demonstrate the full capability of the Indicators Vaidator tool _ Show Disregarded Indicato 9 0 Filter Analysts Currently displaying All I 81 FARC poled cocaine to terrorize US Pation 1 DEA sts see increase s gt rfborts of cocane laced wih toxc substance n several major cities No descro 4 Thee is 25 Bua SOKO N Crug overdoses N several otes Print Save Filter Analysts eve queres about what substan
45. ore and a credibility justification Description Any additional information the user wants to include that is not captured elsewhere can be entered here Assumptions Assumptions that are used to make a decision about how an item of relevant information relates to the hypotheses should be recorded here While this is subjective it allows for as much disclosure as possible about the process in assessing consistency Also over time an assumption may change in its relevance and or credibility Source This is for the user to record the source of the relevant information URL If the source came from a website the URL can be entered here Credibility Rating and Justification Analysts can rate an assumption as having low credibility being credible or having high credibility Below this rating is a text box where analysts can enter the justification for this decision Note When adding relevant information each item should contain only a single item of information upon which an evaluation will be made 21 Te mACH Project Home Page Add Item of Information GL BALYTICA mes Return to Project Page Relevant Information Details Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Any project member can manually add a single hypothesis or item of relevant information The project owner either as a single entry as shown below or using the bulk edit function shown in the following section can add edit remove
46. ot see the information after clicking the bulk add edit link they will have to download and install the latest Microsoft compatibility pack This compatibility pack allows FBA accounts to access all SharePoint functions Status The project status is displayed in the upper right corner of the project page If a project is in draft mode a reminder pops up for project owners to change the project status to Active to give analysts access Survey Matrix and Group Matrix To rate the project click either the Survey or My Matrix icon To view the group results click the Group Matrix icon Note An analyst can only view the group matrix if he she has completed all ratings for the project Analysts This is a list of the analysts participating in the project An email icon next to each analyst s name indicates whether he she has an email address and will be able to receive THINK Suite email communications The progress column shows how many total ratings are needed and how many the analyst has completed Project Configuration Project Owner Only The project configuration page can be accessed by clicking the Project Configuration hyperlink Awaiting Approval Project Owner Only This list includes all submitted hypotheses and relevant information for the project owner to review An edit icon appears next to each proposed item as well as the date submitted Queued Emails Project Owner ay This shows the number of email
47. project title and question Then click Create a Te mACH Project The project title must be different than all others in THINK Suite Note When exporting to Te mACH users cannot use the same project title as in the Multiple Hypotheses Generator project Note Only one Multiple Hypotheses Generator project can be exported into any single Te mACH project If analysts are using several Multiple Hypotheses Generator projects to generate hypotheses for a single Te mACH project then the hypotheses from one Multiple Hypotheses Generator project should use the export function The hypotheses accepted from the other Multiple Hypotheses Generator projects can then be added to the new Te mACH project Note The tool also automatically saves the project when the user clicks any button in any step Note Projects can be deleted by clicking the Delete Project button next to the Save button 16 Multiple Hypotheses Generator Print Save Create New Te mACH Project Multiple Hypotheses Generator Lead Hypothesis Richard Jewell is the bomber Domestic Terrorists Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to promote a cause international Terrorists Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to promote a cause international Terrorists Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to embarrass the US Domestic Terrorists Planted a bomb at Centennial Park to do harm Non accepted Hypotheses Lone Wolf Planted a bomb at Centennia
48. r the Survey or My Matrix icon To view the group results click the Group Matrix icon Note An analyst can only view the group matrix if he she has completed all ratings for the project Analysts This is a list of the analysts participating in the project An email icon next to each analyst s name indicates whether he she has an email address and will be able to receive THINK Suite email communications The progress column shows how many total ratings are needed and how many the analyst has completed Project Configuration Project Owner Only The project configuration page can be accessed by clicking the Project Configuration hyperlink Awaiting Approval Project Owner Only This list includes all submitted scenarios and indicators for the project owner to review An edit icon appears next to each proposed item as well as the date submitted Queued Emails Project Owner Only This shows the number of emails waiting to be sent These emails are automatically sent at 6 00pm Clicking the Send mail now link will send all emails immediately Edit View Items Click an item s name to view or edit its details Project owners can also click the item s edit icon This section displays lists of all items that have been added to the project Note In this manual an item refers to scenarios and indicators in Indicators Validator In Te mACH hypotheses and relevant information are also referred to as items
49. re generated at various throughout points in the project The emails are combined into one digest style email and queued until either the project is activated the project owner manually sends the email or until 6 P M when the emails are automatically sent Analysts can choose how often to receive email notifications The ee owner can see how many emails are waiting to be sent and send them as well Email Notifications Invitation to project sent to all analysts when the project is activated Submitted items sent to project owners reminding them to review the item Approval status sent to submitter of the item informing them when it is approved not approved Newly approved items sent to all analysts as a reminder for scoring Closed project sent to all analysts informing them of the conclusion reached Re opened project sent to all analysts notifying them that the project can be edited again 25 Te mACH Project Home Page lItem Status Suggested Only project owners and the analyst who suggested the item can view or edit it The item will not appear in the matrix at this stage Approved All analysts can see the item but only project owners can edit it Not approved Only the project owner and the analyst who submitted the item can see it This item will not appear in the matrix Only project owners can edit the item Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Item Status ltems awaitin
50. rs Validator is to eliminate indicators that are not diagnostic Indicators that are likely to occur in all scenarios are considered non diagnostic and should be ee Indicators that appear in a few scenarios but not in most would have medium diagnosticity The most useful or highly diagnostic indicators are those that are highly likely to occur in one scenario and highly unlikely to occur in all others Such a rating process allows the analyst to assign a unique diagnosticity score for each indicator Indicators developed for their home scenario are rated either as highly likely or likely to occur For the other scenarios analysts have the option of rating an indicator as highly likely likely could unlikely or highly unlikely to occur HL Highly Likely An analyst would rate a scenario indicator pair highly likely if the indicator is eae likely to occur should the scenario begin to emerge For example the indicator LeT trains suicide bombers would be rated highly likely with the scenario LeT multiple simultaneous targets with suicide bombers L Likely An analyst would rate a scenario indicator pair likely if the indicator is likely to occur should the scenario begin to emerge For example the indicator LeT not focusing on small arms training would be rated likely with the scenario LeT multiple simultaneous targets with suicide bombers C Could An analyst would rate a scenario indicator pair as could occur if the
51. s waiting to be sent These emails are automatically sent at 6 00pm Clicking the Send mail now link will send all emails immediately Edit View Items Click an item s name to view or edit its details Project owners can also click the item s edit icon This section displays lists of all items that have been added to the project Note In this manual an item refers to hypotheses and relevant data in Te mACH In the Indicators Validator scenarios and indicators are also referred to as items 20 Te mACH Project Home Page Add Single Hypothesis a Return to Project Page Wacome denarno e mACH _ GL BALYTICA THINK Suter 2 Return to Home Page Hypotheses New Item U Attach File Hypothesis New Hypothesis Description Description Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved Any project member can manually add a single hypothesis or item of relevant information The project owner either as a single entry as shown below or using the bulk edit function shown in the following section can add edit remove and approve items Those added by the project owner are automatically approved and items added by other analysts require approval Hypotheses A hypothesis must be entered An additional description may be added Relevant Information A title must be entered Users may also add a description source URL assumptions a credibility sc
52. st who submitted the item can see it This item will not appear in the matrix Only project owners can edit the item Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved ltems awaiting approval are highlighted in yellow Project owners edit the items and change their status to approved to add them to the matrix or not approved to reject them Once selected the designation is permanent If an error was made the item will need to either be deleted or resubmitted Suggested Only project owners and the analyst who suggested the item can view or edit it The item will not appear in the matrix at this stage Approved All analysts can see the item but only project owners can edit it Not approved Only the project owner and the analyst who submitted the item can see it This item will not appear in the matrix Only project owners can edit the item 41 Indicators Validator Analysis e Rate the likelihood of each scenario given the emergence of each indicator Purpose to assess the diagnosticity of each indicator Using either Survey or Matrix for rating e HU Highly Unlikely e U Unlikely e C Could Happen e L Likely HL Highly Likely Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved At this step the Indicators Validator pairs each indicator with each scenario Analysts then rate the pairs according to likelihood of that indicator occurring in each scenario The purpose of the Indicato
53. t Page Hypotheses Return to Home Page A list of hypotheses Actors Settings Oesenption Domestic lethal radical extremests to promote Domestic lethal radical estiemisis pee a domestic political agenda positioned an anti personne bomb on 27 July 1996 in Centerrusl Park to promote domestic politcal agenda Intemabonal terroriste at part of a phadist Imemabonal terrorists pre positioned an anti campagn aganst America personnel bomb on 27 July 1936 in N Centennial Park to inflict haem as part of a ew st Amenca phadist campagn sgan Disgrunitled contractors to protest bang Betors pre postioned an Hypoth eses od antipersonnel bomb on 27 July 1996 in A Centennial Park to protest losing a job Descriptions Richard Jewell pre positioned an anti pessonne bomb on 27 July 1996 im Centenrsst Paik to get job Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved An excel spreadsheet can be used to add and or edit items in bulk This is a useful feature to save time when there are many hypotheses or relevant information to add However this import function is only available in Internet Explorer Required and additional fields are the same in the bulk add edit feature as with adding a single item 23 Te mACH Project Home Page Bulk Add e mACH K GLQBALYTICA 2 The Mough Leader in Analytic Techreques FA Relevant Information List Return to Project Page Return to Home Page i t infor
54. te A peach cell showing that the disagreement is between NA and L HL or U HU Large Dispute An orange cell showing that the disagreement is between L and HU or between U and HL Extreme Dispute A pink cell showing that the disagreement is between HL and HU 2 Tie This is an icon showing a tie between two scores Analysts can roll over the tie indicator to see details When the tie is between L and HL or U and HU then the cell is indicated as a HL or HU respectively 3 Notes This function works as explained above in the My Matrix section of this user manual In addition analysts can see comments left by others 4 Individual Responses Each cell shows how many analysts have responded out of the total number e g 2 2 of participants Moving the cursor over the icon in the upper right corner of the cell shows how each user rated the intersection 5 Consensus Rating In the center of each cell is the consensus rating for the intersection Disregard Column This column is read only for analysts and shows as checked the indicators that the majority of analysts have disregarded Discussion Board This function works as explained above in the My Matrix section of this user manual In addition users can now see comments left by others Filter Analysts This allows the user to assess how the results may vary if certain analysts or groups of analysts are removed When the user clicks Filter Analysts a drop down menu appe
55. torize US cotare laced with lode substance in popuston several major ches Border police report fewer seizures of bulk FARC poisons cocaine to tewceze US cash heading south population informants report a buzz on the street to FARC posons cocaine to terronze US population avoid purchases of cocaine There is an unusual spke in dug overdoses FARC poisons cocaine to tenceze US in several ciias population Drug informants talk of special payofts to FARC poisons cocaine to tercece US local drug distributors population a n r The FARC posts statement on the Intemet Indicators Details FARC poisons cocaine to testorize US saying it wall retaliate agamst the Unted population States for supporting Colombian mitay skes aganst FARC guerillas Urban drug Weatment centers receive FARC portone cocaine to tentorice US Queries about what substances are most population often meced with cocane to increase volume and profits New communications are identified between FARC posors cocaine to tertorize US population vd FARC leaders and drug distributors in the Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved 39 Indicators Validator Project Home Page E Mail Email Queue Automated emails generated in the project are combined into one email and queued until e Project activation 6PM Eastern Time Project owner manually sends notifications Email Notifications e Invitation to project
56. toward the top below are rated hypotheses shown in order from most to least plausible To proceed click on Next Step 4 beneath the text box 14 Multiple Hypotheses Generator Scorin Demo MHG Project Statef Active Lead Hypothesis Richard Jewel planted the bomb to make himself a hero and help him obtain a j Ch P Step 1 Create Lead Hypothesis g J Step 2 Identify Key Components and Alternative Explanat ts State Step 3 Review and Rate Hypotheses According to Plausibility J Step 4 Edit and Accept Generated Hypotheses Select the hypotheses most deserving of attention and inclus in the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses matrix F appropriate I Hypotheses Accepted Hypotheses Domestic lethal radica extromsts an art ne cree miematonal terors s an art persorrei personnel bomb on 27 July 1996 in bomb on 27 July 1996 in Certenrval Park to Cantanriai Park to riiet harm as nan of a nthe DAN as net ct a shacks camaon Richard Jewell an anti personnel bomb on e we Osmeste eta radical extremsts an art 27 July 1996 in Centerrial Park to promote personnel bomb on 27 July 1996 n Lai cal gt e a Omen tere Acan Jeet an ropesorei tom on 27 Jy 1996 in Centennial Park to get a OD EOE tte Oso ties contractors an art persornei F Ri e bomb on 27 July 1996 in Centerrial Park to tro Next Step Edit Accept Hypotheses Save Changes for Further Consideration Delete Project
57. turn to My Matrix S Return to Home Page gt lt Grou ri well Number of OANA Inconsistents Filter Analysts Currently displaying All c gs Yet 5 Milc Dispute Large Dispute Extreme Dispute Responsgs 7Stal Analysts estic lethal radical H2 International terrorists as H3 Disgruntled contractors H4 Richard Jewell to get a extremists to promote a part of a jhadist campaign to protest losing a job job tic poll agai Filter Analysts Currently Displayed c Assumptions View Credibility Justification Analyst Ratings v Creditifly Justification 7 So e URL Information i Notes Credibility Assumptions Creaminy Justheaton e Credibility o Justification Copyright 2012 Globalytica LLC All Rights Reserved The group matrix functions similar to the individual matrix in most ways Hypotheses form the top row and each piece of relevant information is presented in a column to the left Each point of intersection represents a hypothesis information pair and the aggregated analyst ratings of each pair are presented in the group matrix However there are some notable differences and additional information explained below Hypotheses These are automatically reordered by the number of inconsistent ratings with the lowest inconsistency score to the left and the highest to the right Relevant Information These are automatically sorted to move the most diagnostic items to the

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