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User Manual - Qudos Market Insight

1. As can be seen the current format has no details the label which shows where the updating files are stored is blank and the number of target folders i e the folders containing the data to be updated is set at 0 No updating can proceed unless all these items have details stored against them The user can select from a large number of pre set formats from a number of data providers such as that from EODData com Financial Express etc or can build a custom format Clicking on the Pre set Formats item will bring a drop down menu 131 CHAPTER 7 Parameters for London Pre set Formats Custom Format Check Format Folders Use EOD Data Files Use ADVN MET files Use Financial Express Files T Date format Date location within file E stenzior Updating files stored in Number of target folders 0 Save Format Cancel Using EOD ADVN or Financial Express Files If you are downloading data from these sources then you can avoid a lengthy dialogue in the View Change Settings option and you will not need the Specify Date Location In the following explanation these symbols are used to describe the field order in the files T Ticker N Name P Periodicity e g D for daily D Date O Open H High L Low C Close V Volume For dates the usual form of DD day MM month YYYY or YY year is used For characters not used such as or or then an X is used It is important that the U
2. Updating files stored in CMEODDatasLSE Number of target folders 0 Save Format cone The box at the lower left now shows the selected location for the updating files Parameters for London Pre set Formats Custom Format Check Format Folders Current format Name EOD Metastock Field order TPOOHLCY Date format MMOD Date location within file Extension TT Updating files stored in CAEODData LSeE Number of target folders 4 Save Format Pancal 137 CHAPTER 7 Selecting the Folders to be Updated This is now the last item to be determined Up to 50 folders can be designated as target folders for each market If for some reason you require more than this then simply add another market with a different name and go through the sequence above but choose the different folders for that other market in the following manner From the Folders item in the menu choose Select Folders to be Updated You will then be presented with the following screen where a folder FTSE 100 has been selected Its full name appears in the top right hand box It can be added to the tabbed list headed Folder by clicking on the Add Above Folder button Ej Select Folders for Updating Canon a C Program Files Channalyze FT SE 100 CCSPrograms Channalyze Folders iti DownloadB Add Above Folder Securities O Dustbin EF TSE100 FTSE100wW Add Sub Fold
3. channalyze USER MANUAL for Version 1 0 0 Oudos Market Insight Email info marketinsight com Web site www qudosmarketinsight com Fax 44 161 439 2327 Printed October 2008 v1 2 CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 Introduction to Channalyze 1 AV Ir ON MN ety sansa aE 1 System REquireMents ccccccccsseceecseeceeceeeseeceeseeeeees 2 WINS CaN UN OW eg caress esd yzalecrtweeiaec S 2 WINS FANG OU NGS ears detente adancstend unr ssonsaasmboneeante 3 Changes 10 Files io reien a lessee nsiaalens 4 The Start Up SCreen ccccccccececeeeeeeseeceeteeteeteeeeeseeseess 4 Changing the Screen VieW cccccccsececseeeeeesseseeeaeenees 7 Charting a Security from the Stocklist ccceee 11 Charting a Security if the Stocklist is Hidden 12 Reading ASCII Text Files cc ccceecsseeeeeeeeeeeees 13 CHAPTER 2 Securities and Prices 0 c08 21 Finding a SO CUINY sene SEE 21 SOCUNITY PTOPETU E Siei E iuet aotedieus 22 Sorting SECULITIOS cece cccccceeeceeseeceeeceeeeeeeeeseeeeseneenes 23 Showing Security Temporary List cccecceeee eee es 23 Adding Securities to Temporary List cccseeeeees 24 Deleting Securities in Temporary List cccceeeee 25 Copying Securities in Temporary List c ccceeee 26 Moving Securities in Temporary List cccceeeee 2 Creating a New SeCuUr
4. At any time the data that has produced the chart of the cycles can be displayed by clicking the Data button 112 CYCLES IN MARKET DATA Bene Cycles Category Wavelength Amplitude Tolerance Direction 3 3703 Rising 3 33168 Rising 3 317696 Fisirig 3 200303 Rising 3 246094 Rising 3 232918 Rising 3 201691 Rising 3 16095 Rising 3 143692 Rising 3 110001 Rising 3 065863 Rising 3 049881 Rising 3 015465 Rising 2 972939 Rising 2 953011 Fisirig 2 916458 Rising 2 073 46 Rising 2 09183 Rising 2 012569 Rising 2 fbo463 Rising 2 f45 fe Rising 2 fU45b4 Rising 2 65927 Rising Hide Me Show Distribution The cycles are separated into the categories short medium and long The Wavelength is the nominal value used on the scan which normally would run from 15 to 350 The Latest is the wavelength of the most recent segment of the isolated cycle The Amplitude is self explanatory The Tolerance is the change in wavelength over the last few sweeps of that cycle Finally the Direction gives the status of the cycle at the current position of the last data point or position of the cut off point if the cut off has been used It is from this data set which stores results from each scan that the distribution chart is created 113 CHAPTER 6 Closing Opening the Distribution Plot The distribution plot is a floating form that always stays on top of any other form It can be minimized and brought back at any time or it can be resi
5. FAJAODFAJAODFAJSAODFAJSAODFAJSAODFAJSAOQODFAIJA 02 4 Click to INCREASE maximum Y value by one interval 07 03 2008 09 33 68 CALCULATIONS CCI Commodities Channel Index The sequence of calculations for this indicator is as follows 1 Calculate the last period s Typical Price TP H L C 3 where H high L low and C close 2 Calculate the 20 period Simple Moving Average of the Typical Price MATP 3 Calculate the Mean Deviation First calculate the absolute value of the difference between the last period s MATP and the typical price for each of the past 20 periods Add all of these absolute values together and divide by 20 to find the Mean Deviation 4 The final step is to apply the Typical Price TP the Simple Moving Average of the Typical Price MATP the Mean Deviation and a Constant 015 to the following formula CCI TP MATP 0 15 x Mean Deviation The input box for this calculation has a period set at 20 gt Add Calculation 1 BEA Commodity Channel Indes CCI Properties Petiod 1 mo m OK Mote other Box 2 calculations will be mhibited oF eller Cancel 69 CHAPTER 4 This plot has no lag as shown below Paj Channalyze File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Hel Le Agilent Technolo Agilent Technolo Brit Am Tobacco Sette ee at te ee a ee nd eae te oe tee British Airways Sy Sat este Woes He Teak yk esc a tt ia You w
6. System Requirements Cycle analysis in the scanning mode requires extensive mathematical computations so the faster the processor the better The program will operate under Microsoft Windows 95 98 2000 NT XP or Vista Installation Channalyze comes on a CD the program CD Included on the CD is a folder containing a few data files which are used throughout this manual As mentioned above this data can be regularly updated by the ChannalyzeUpdater that is also present on the program CD The examples used in this manual come from both the US and UK markets They can be found in the Samples folder A limited amount of data for the UK US and Canadian markets can be downloaded from www qudosmarketinsight com Installing the Channalyze and Updater Programs To install simply put the program CD into your CD drive The installation program should then start automatically but if it does not do the following Windows 2000 XP 1 Click the Start button in Windows and choose the Run command The dialog then appears 2 In the Open box type x setup exe where x is the drive letter for the CD drive If you are not sure clicking on the My Computer icon will give you a list of the devices with their letters that are present in your computer 3 Click the OK button to start the installation Vista 1 Click the Windows icon bottom left of the screen and then click on Computer which is in the list to the right of the list of
7. f Large Buttons f Small Buttons OF Change Cancel Default At any time the screen appearance as shipped can be restored by clicking on the Default button This mode has large buttons and the Stocklist and Statusbar are displayed The other buttons in the bottom row are self explanatory Experiment by selecting different options For example you may feel comfortable with small button displayed which will give the advantage of a slightly larger chart Although the Statusbar displays prices at the point in time represented by the cursor position on the chart from time to time it may be necessary to view the actual stock prices over extended periods of time This display is shown below The display where Stocklist Buttons and Statusbar have been hidden to produce the largest possible chart is shown on the next page The use of the Show Temporary List tick box will be discussed in the next chapter For now suffice it to say that it is used to show which securities are to be copied moved or deleted CHAPTER 1 E Channalyze BAA File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Yersion Brit Am Tabacco Date Open High Low Close Volume a British Airways 03 10 2007 36 94 37 05 36 43 36 83 1349600 meek 02007 3697 375 9 0 383870 ital sae Lora 28 09 2007 36 9 3716 3662 36 88 2267100 27 09 2007 37 37 21 36 77 36 98 1901200 26 09 2007 37 15 37 15 36 75 36 93 1963800 25 09 2007 36 4 36 96 36
8. 05 12 2007 10 06 Deleting Securities in Temporary List If you click on this item you will be given a message asking to confirm that you wish to delete the securities held in the Temporary List see below for an example with two securities in the Temporary List Answering Yes will cause the operation to begin and the securities will be deleted Once finished the Temporary List will be emptied although it will still be in the state in which more security names can be added The deleted securities will also disappear from the securities panel They will have been removed totally from the folder and cannot be recalled However because of the two stage process for deletion plus the confirmation box it is only through total inattention that securities will be deleted in error Also the user should be keeping back up copies of all security data on another storage medium in order to guard against computer problems so that deleted items can be reinstated 25 CHAPTER 2 Confirm Securities Delete Ea OK to delete 2 items Once you have no further deletion copying or moving operations to carry out then the Temporary List is removed as discussed in Chapter 1 by selecting the Screen item in the menu bar and clicking on the Show Temporary List item to remove its ticked state Copying Securities in Temporary List If you click on this item you will be given a confirmation box asking if you wish to copy the securities in the tempor
9. Allowable variation p54 peplot with New The bars in this graph represent the number of occurrences of each particular wavelength as the total scan is analysed Thus we see a group around 42 to 52 another group around 102 to 112 and a third group from 300 to 310 There are also two small bars at 32 and 34 This form enables you to select one of these bars and plot out the cycle it represents Once the button Get Cycle 1 is clicked the cursor shows a 1 and short vertical line As the cursor is moved across the chart detail 100 EXPERIMENT WITH SINE WAVES about the wavelength of the bar it is hovering over is shown in the box below the chart The persistence is the number of occurrences of that particular cycle in that scan If the mouse left button is then clicked when the cursor is hovering over that cycle then the cycle is plotted and the values used in the scan to produce that cycle are shown in the small window alongside the Get Cycle 1 button Since there are three groups of cycles in this example then the same process can be repeated twice more firstly for Get Cycle 2 and then for Get Cycle 3 so that we will have data in all three boxes as shown below While there is a Get Cycle 4 button it is not needed in this case because there are not four groups of cycles Med Hi Divide Sum Red Sum Green Sum Blue Plot All Sine Wave 4171017 301 50 25 i l l The buttons at the top ri
10. Cycle Sums gt Days Forward Experiment with Sine Waves Band Colors Inner Band Do it Middle Band ClearFrom Plot Outer Color Sales tinted A cain oad Weeden rece ge podem atta a To Yaad E beam etiam OES utensil Pinta mental tenet ipsam T AEEA foetal OEE Poem iam al meal OA tena AT fda ONET ONET Doxa at Poe AEA tome Ws 8 CHAPTER 4 Do it Clicking on this will bring up a cursor with a dice icon The cursor can be moved to the point from which the probability of movement over the specified number of days forward into the future is to be calculated Once the calculation has been carried out a box is presented with the numerical probabilities shown The box below shows that from the current starting point with a price of 554 5 there is a 95 probability of the price moving outside of the range 557 to 566 The larger the range outside of which the price might move the lower is the probability of this happening Thus there is only a 50 probability of the price rising above 599 or falling below 540 in the next 50 days L liiliard Probability Results SEEK Lloyds TSB Calc date 11 10 2006 Price 554 5 Within the next 50 days Probability of being outside the range 540 to 599 50 548 to 58 557 to SE 95 88 CALCULATIONS Note these bands do not have to be symmetrical around the starting point In fact they are unlikely to be symmetrical since the Millard Probability calculation is findin
11. Metastock ASCII 8 Column These have the extension txt and field order TPDOHLCV The date is contained in each line in the file and is of the form YYYYMMDD Metastock with Names These have the extension txt and field order NTIDOHLCV The date is contained in each line in the file and is of the form YYYYMMDD Quicken These have the extension txt and field order TCDHLV The date is contained in each line in the file and is of the form MMXDDXYYYY Stockscreen Pro These have the extension txt and field order TNDOHLCV The date is contained in each line in the file and is of the form DDMMYYYY Note 1 these pre determined settings for EOD ADVN and Financial Express need to have been stored before you determine the location of the updating files via the Change Source Folder option of the Folders item Note 2 if any of these pre determined formats are used then the only other item in this menu that you will need is the Change Source Folder option of the Folders item since at this point the program does not know the location of the updating files Choosing EOD Data Files will bring down a list of currently supported formats as just discussed which can be selected when you download from the EOQDData com web site You should obviously use the one which you specified when using the download This list is shown in the first screen picture on the next page Note 3 on the EODData web site there is an option to download the
12. Tobacco Firstly the channel itself is now flattening out and can be expected to head downwards This downward direction will take the price with it Secondly the price is at the upper boundary and has in fact just retreated slightly from it The expectation is that a major reversal in the BAT price is about to take place Faj Channalyze DES File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help lt I E e E PL 22 ANENE Agilent Technolo Brit Am Tobac Brit m Tobacco British Airways Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo T rho Ee a a a aa a ee ee ee 05 7 gt Point Num 1641 Mon 28 04 2008 Outside data range 07 12 2007 08 07 Clicking on the magnifying glass icon and using the mouse to enlarge the latest section of the plot shows more clearly the relationship between the price and the upper boundary 72 CALCULATIONS Paj Channalyze mek File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version AME AKEN RAREN British Airways sa Se et wating kaan d can ka H1775 r 1800 H1750 H1725 H1700 H1675 H1650 1625 i 1575 bch iim H1525 1500 H1475 f 1425 1400 1 L1375 H1350 t t t t t t t 14325 A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A Ss 0 N D J F 06 07 08 gt Click to INCREASE maximum Y value by o
13. records and they need to be removed since they will cause problems in the plotting module Many of 32 SECURITIES AND PRICES the calculation routines will stop when they reach a zero record so that the presence of these is counter productive Clicking on this item in the Prices menu will cause a scan to commence which will remove these records If necessary the scan can be repeated again Removing Duplicates It is possible by using the Edit Records routine for changing the date of a record to end up with two records with the same date By selecting the Remove Duplicates item the data for the selected security will be scanned for duplicates and the older ones removed leaving the most recent in place Deleting Some Records This allows the user to delete one record or a contiguous block of records As with previous operations of data records a record can be selected by clicking on it If the Delete Some Records item is then chosen then the selected record is deleted although naturally the user is given the opportunity to cancel the operation To select a block of records simply click on the first one of the block to be deleted then holding down the shift key click on the last one in the block The whole block then becomes highlighted and if the operation is not cancelled the whole block of records is removed If the block is particularly large this might take some time Adjusting for Splits This is used to adjust t
14. 36 36 77 1527400 24 09 2007 36 77 37 01 36 35 36 56 1698300 21 09 2007 37 12 37 4 36 61 36 91 3171200 20 09 2007 37 11 37 26 36 86 37 02 1550400 19 09 2007 37 25 37 53 37 05 37 26 2298900 18 09 2007 36 14 37 4 36 14 37 2 1969300 17 09 2007 35 98 36 25 35 77 36 03 998400 14 09 2007 36 23 36 59 35 97 36 16 1748400 13 09 2007 36 43 36 5 36 22 36 34 1366200 12 09 2007 36 13 36 5 35 99 36 29 1807900 11 09 2007 36 2 36 5 36 02 36 31 2185200 10 09 2007 36 43 36 5 35 76 36 1 2007100 07 09 2007 36 09 36 46 36 05 36 28 2044800 06 09 2007 36 01 36 58 35 84 36 58 1520700 05 09 2007 36 11 36 2 35 86 36 16 2086500 04 09 2007 36 59 36 68 36 01 36 46 1584700 31 08 2007 36 3 36 54 36 07 36 4 2265300 30 08 2007 35 48 36 15 35 22 35 83 1788900 29 08 2007 34 98 35 62 34 93 35 62 1888900 28 08 2007 34 95 35 22 34 6 34 67 3081300 27 08 2007 35 12 35 34 34 87 35 14 1783300 24 08 2007 34 65 35 26 34 52 35 2 1660200 23 08 2007 34 5 34 82 34 14 34 64 2139900 22 08 2007 34 12 34 49 33 88 34 38 2030000 21 08 2007 33 5 34 04 33 35 33 94 2170700 20 08 2007 33 72 33 89 33 1 33 6 3546000 17 08 2007 32 85 35 32 64 33 83 5440700 16 08 2007 32 3 32 98 31 78 32 78 6799600 15 08 2007 31 44 33 07 31 15 32 39 7896500 14 08 2007 35 8 37 1 35 8 36 33 2934000 13 08 2007 36 37 09 36 36 33 3259300 10 08 2007 36 6 36 6 35 28 35 75 3463500 09 08 2007 38 06 39 37 35 58 35 89 5345000 08 08 2007 38 3 38 64 37 93 38 48 3134000 07 08 2007 37 8 38 69 37 75 38 3 2960700 v 4 Ready 25
15. Falls i Millard Probability Calculation b Cycle Sums r Experiment with Sine Waves i A A i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i if i i i i i i i i i i i i i i Number of Trials Days Forward Band Colors Do it The Cycle Sums item simply allows you to change the colors and line thickness The actual calculation and storage of cycle sums is dealt with in Chapter 6 The Experiment with Sine Waves item allows the user to calculate up to three sine waves and add them together This is useful for seeing how moving averages work with cycles and combinations of cycles The topic is covered in the next chapter on the cycle scanner 90 Chapter 5 Experiment with Sine Waves Before examining cycles in stock market data it is vitally important to build up an understanding of the properties of sine waves Market data contains a number of cycles of different wavelengths amplitudes and phases added together While the aim of this program is to isolate important cycles in market data there are limitations to what can be achieved By using the Sine Wave Experimenter to generate either single or complex waves the user can develop a much better idea of how this program deals with these Once a complex wave has been generated then it can be analyzed by using the scanner The three components of a sine wave are the wavelength the amplitude and the phase The wavelength is the time between successive peaks or troughs The time
16. Wavelengths 2 f H 150 Start End a zj 15 350 100 ad In steps of 1 e Good Count o 75 Curentwave L 50 JV Plot while scanning t5 Go Stoj i p e g Doppler Set Maximum Shift y 0 H 25 mE V 50 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 End Analysis AATA P Results Exit he J 10 5 F 5 F 10 Fale etary ae Ooms S eas aa es a Ga a 1 5 1000 1250 1500 Af ales Now we can experiment with three sine waves added together by entering the following values into the box Sine Wave Short Wavelengths Wavelength l4 Amplitude 50 Offset Medium Wavelengths Wavelength 101 Amplitude 100 Offset Long Wavelength Wavelength 301 Amplitude qq Offset To disable a wawe set its amplitude to zero Note Amplitudes should increase with wavelength Base line 100 Cancel The result shown on the next page is an even more complex wave pattern 96 EXPERIMENT WITH SINE WAVES Paj Channalyze DES File Securities Prices Screen Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Flag NextFlag PreviousFlag Reports Updater Version Agilent Technolo Sine Wave 4171017 301 Brit m Tobacco British Airways Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 From our experiments with two sine wave
17. a greater weight on the most recent points in the data when carrying out the calculation The result of using an exponential average is shown below These averages are not recommended for use in studies of cycles and channels since there is no reason to suggest that cycles have increased in their influence as the latest point in time is approached All points have to be treated equally as the calculation moves forward from the past to the present Tea Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reporl AKE pe cop i i Ly 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 Kl Point Num 1528 Thur 15 11 2007 Outside data range 07 12 2007 07 01 MA Moving Average Difference We have seen that the smoothing effect of moving averages is obtained by removal of fluctuations and that the wavelengths removed depend upon the span used for the average The fluctuations that are removed by this process can themselves be displayed by using the moving average difference This is the difference between the value of the data and the values of a centered moving average The MA difference will give a crude picture of the mixture of short term cycles present in the data 61 CHAPTER 4 Add Calculation MA Difference Properties Period 1 The box into which the span and color can be entered is shown above Note the greyed out option for centered This is because onl
18. before peaking out in January 2008 Note the distance into the future for the predicted movement is fixed and has been set to a point where the forecast has a good level of predictability 122 CYCLES IN MARKET DATA If the cycle distribution is required then clicking on Show Cycle Distribution for Each Plot will display the distribution plot Pa Cycle Distribution Get Cycle 2 Get Cycle 3 Get Cycle 4 Plot 1 Plot 2 Messina 75 Sum Red Sum Greer Plot 3 Plot 4 ele at 25 Sum Blue Plot All lent Technolo 8 200 250 Allowable variation 95 Replot with New Before we discuss this plot it is useful to scan all of the securities in the current Samples folder This is done by selecting AutoScan again and this time clicking on Scan from current security to last in folder It is assumed that the currently selected security is Agilent Technology With the Step Profile set to its default of Linear Ramp 1 10 fast the scan should take around 10 seconds per security so that the scan of all five will be completed in less than a minute The distribution plot will be displayed but it can be reduced in size by dragging its bottom right hand corner with the mouse Now if you move through the security list by clicking on the button with the right and left arrows keys you will see that both the cycle sum and the distribution plot for each security is shown at the same time This is useful for selecting those securi
19. by storing information about each market such as where the updating files are stored what formats these files have they might be different for different markets which folders hold the historical data that is being updated and so on The Updater stores a list of these markets with names decided by the user The names can be changed added to and deleted Within the program file folder Channalyze there is a folder with the name Markets For each market name that is added a separate folder is created which will contain all of these details Once these details are in place and the user wishes to update a market it is only necessary to select that market name choose which files are to be used and then start updating Once updating is complete a log file is created so that the user can see which files have been used and if any problems have been encountered such as corrupt data files Running the Updater ChannalyzeUpdater is a separate module which is accessed in the same way as the Channalyze program i e from the list of programs As with Channalyze an icon can be produced so that the program is accessible from the desktop The program can 127 CHAPTER 7 also be accessed from Channalyze via the menu item In this case a message is given Channalyze You Will leave Channalyze in order to run Updater OK to do this Unlike Channalyze this module will not read in the default list of securities as this is usually not req
20. drawn again in the new color A word of explanation is needed on the Cut off Data Color When the icon with displaying the pair of scissors is clicked the user can cut off the data from that point onwards so that it is not used in any calculation The data itself is still displayed however and its color will be that selected by this item on the Color menu Naturally this color should be different from that of the data itself Grids The style and color for the grids can be chosen from this menu Both X grids and Y grids will have the same characteristics and cannot be defined separately Style When this item is chosen the following box is displayed Unlike the options for choosing the thickness in this case the style of dotted dashed etc can be selected The program is shipped with the first dotted line style as the default 42 CUSTOM GRAPHS FH Line Thickness and Style SINE Thickness Color The axis colors can be selected from the displayed box of colors Note if you wish the grids to be invisible then choose the grid color to be the same as the background color Margins This item will bring up a box into which the allowable margin can be entered This is the margin at the right hand part of the chart between the last data point and the right hand vertical axis Enter value for right hand margin from to 25 OE Cancel Help The form is self explanatory The maximum margin is 20 43 CHAP
21. future 124 CYCLES IN MARKET DATA File Securities Prices Screen Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Flag NextFlag PreviousFlag Reports Updater Version Agilent Technolo Brit Am Tobacco British Airways Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo 42 5 Agilent Technolo 40 FA 35 32 5 30 27 5 I ete Re TY A OR Raycom RAEN IRE RN a SEES TIN TS RO Re ON a 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 Auto sum of all cycles OND JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASOND J F 05 06 o7 08 al o Point Num 1564 Fri 04 01 2008 Outside data range 02711 2007 17 46 Step Profile option 1 constant interval of 1 7 Channalyze _ _s a oo File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help DHGOSBS200 BERS ZERBBHaS Agilent Technolo Agilent Technolo Brit Am Tobacco cm British Airways Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo 27 5 e a a a F i g J dan kih 22 5 a re On Dal FM AMS AA 8S ON PDP SFR Ae A Jj 04 05 06 o7 Cycle Sum scanned on 07 06 2008 Date of last data point 03 10 2007 20 wo 4 ect z o n4 z st z lt a gt 4 wo or z i af Click to DECREASE minimum Y value by one interval 07 06 2008 13 20 Step Profile option 2 linear ramp 1 to 10 125 CHAPTER 6 Shown on the previous page is a scan where the Step Profile has been selected as option 1 constant interval of 1 while in the second picture the step interval
22. future is near the position of the lower boundary This will help to establish that the channel has indeed begun to rise again 19 CHAPTER 4 Millard Cycles This is the fourth calculation on the calculation list Selecting it will bring up a form in which the period can be entered Add Calculation 2 Millard Cycles Properties Period 1 201 iz Extrapolated color a Cancel The cycles have to be plotted in a separate box as shown over As with MA Difference the relative heights of the two boxes can be changed by dragging the center dividing bar For this example the Screen option has been used to hide the Stocklist It can be seen that over the last year or so the cycles have become much more regular and therefore predictable They can be followed into the future but the accuracy of prediction falls off rapidly the further into the future we look forward The whole question of cycles will be dealt with in the next chapter so will not be taken further at this point 80 CALCULATIONS Paj Channalyze DES File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Yersion Help BEBReAee BOS22 88800 Agilent Technolo Agile iTo chnolo Brt Am Tobacco ME a ee a ee a British Airways Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo t 1 t 3 r r i FAJAODFAJAODFAJAODFAJAODFAJAODFAJAODFAJA 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Egi Hears TO Har 1 0 H o 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 FAJAO
23. header information as the first line in the file Do not select this since the number of items in the header file does not always 134 UPDATING YOUR DATA FILES match up with the number of fields in the lines of actual market data This will cause the updating process to fail As an example the Metastock 8 column format was chosen from this list The second screen shot below shows that the details for the updating format are now filled in Parameters for London Pre set Formats Use EOD Data Files Advanced Get ASCI Use ADVN MET files Ezy Charts Use Financial Express Files Metastock 7 Column Date format Metastock 8 Column Date location within file Metastock with Names Extension Quicken Updating files stored in Supercharts ASCII Stockscreen Pro Number of target folders 0 Save Format Cancel Parameters for London Pre set Formats Custom Format CheckFormat Folders Current format Name EOD Metastock8 Field order TPDOHLCY Date format YYYYMMDD Date location within file Extension TXT Updating files stored in Number of target folders 0 Save Format Races 135 CHAPTER 7 Selecting the Folder Holding Updating Files As far as the files which are to be used for updating are concerned the program must be given the location of the files which will be used for updating i e the folder containing them The folder holding these files can be selected b
24. is the default Step Profile option 2 linear ramp 1 to 10 to illustrate the fact that short term movements are not as apparent when option 1 is selected as when option 2 or 3 is selected Note the cycle plot in the lower panel shows a longer title than that in the upper panel This is to illustrate the point that it was retrieved from the stored scan In this case the date of the scan has been stored along with the date of the last data point in that scan and the date of any cut off of the data see page 42 Thus paradoxically the faster scanning profiles give a better indication of movement than slower ones 126 Chapter 7 Updating Your Data Files Most investors acquire their data from a data provider This may be by a direct telephone or cable link or via the Internet The Update Menu in Channalyze assumes that you are able to download the data in the form of an ASCII text file which is then stored on the disk Unfortunately there are almost as many forms of ASCII data in these files as there are data providers but the Updater provides a way of overcoming these difficulties Overview of the Universal Updater The Updater has to cope with the fact that many investors now store data on more than one market for example the New York Stock Exchange NASDAQ and the London Stock Exchange The data for updating these various markets may also be provided by different data vendors This dilemma is catered for in the Updater
25. item will allow you to show the price records see page 7 The record that will be edited is the one which has been selected by a single click on it If a record has not been selected in this way then the first record is taken as the selected one This form is the same as the one used for adding a record but now with the current data filling the appropriate boxes rather than a set of zeros 31 CHAPTER 2 Price Properties E EE Date 19 10 2004 Open 41 26 High 41 67 Low 4118 Close 41 38 Volume Opentnt To edit you can either cycle to the required box with the Tab key or go to it directly by clicking on it with the mouse If you wish to change all of the price fields then start with the first one and use the Tab key to move down to the next field Besides amending the data you can also change the date Note the record will stay in the same place in the file Thus if you change an existing date to a new one then the record will almost certainly be out of the correct chronological order You will then need to sort the data records into date order The way of doing this is shown next Sorting Records Clicking on this will cause the records if any to be sorted into the correct chronological order All the records for that security are sorted whether or not they are displayed in the prices panel Removing Zeros Sometimes records may be present which have no data in them These as so called zero
26. one in the block holding down the Caps key and clicking on the last in the block The whole block then becomes highlighted 148 UPDATING YOUR DATA FILES Note 2 to select more than one file when they are not contiguous then hold down the Shift key while clicking on the desired files AutoSend Updating Files to Backup By clicking on it this item can be toggled between sending and not sending the files to backup If checked then once backup is completed the files are sent to the folder UpdatingBackup as mentioned previously These are of course accessible by the Updater from that location if required Updating Clicking on the Updating item in the menu bar will bring down the drop down menu j Universal Updater File 5 Markets Market Parameters Mimete Update Log Channalyze T List Updating Files E Update with Selected Files Current market London Updating file format EOD Metastock8 Click on the List Updating Files and the list of files in the currently selected market with the correct extension e g txt if Metastock 8 column is the chosen format will be shown in the right hand panel This is shown on the next page Click on the files that you require to be used in the updating process so that they are highlighted see previously List update files to send to backup to see how to select a block or non contiguous files and finally click on Update with Selected files The updating process will commence a
27. programs You can then navigate to the CD drive and its list of contents Then click on the Setup item in this list 2 INTRODUCTION Now for all Windows operating platforms Follow the instructions that are given on the screen You can elect to have the program installed in the default folder which will normally be C Program Files Channalyze As well as data files for the UK or US markets a folder named Dustbin or Trashcan in the US will be created The purpose of this folder is for you to move stocks that have ceased to exist or are suspended into it The stocks are still available if required and can be moved to another active folder if they are needed again Once the installation has been completed you will be asked whether you wish to run the program immediately There is no point in delaying the moment of truth so kick off the program now To run on other occasions click on either of the Channalyze or ChannalyzeUpdater icons which should now have been installed on your desktop Alternatively you can click on the Programs item in the Start menu You will find Channalyze and the ChannalyzeUpdater in the list of programs along with their icons Installed Files Once the program has been installed in its folder a number of files with the extension dta will be created in this folder These dta files contain information about colors fonts etc In addition a sub folder with the name Samples will be created The Sampl
28. the sum of short term cycles invaluable in determining short term changes in direction AutoScan There are two items on the Chans Cycles drop down menu shown over that are concerned with autoscanning of the data These are AutoScan Millard Cycles and Specify Folders to be Scanned In addition two other items concern the display of the results Show Cycle Sums for Each Plot will allow the sum which has been stored for each security that has been scanned to be shown as the security is selected from the Stocklist In a similar way the Show Cycle Distribution item will show the distribution for each security 118 CYCLES IN MARKET DATA sph Calculations Flag NextFlag Previous Flag Reports Updater Ver Adjust Channel Agilent Technolo Change Channel Depth Restore Original Channel Show Cycle Panel Hide Cycle Panel 4uboscan Cycles Specify Folders to be Scanned Show Cycles Sums For Each Plot Show Cycle Distribution for Each Plot Before the AutoScan Millard Cycles routine is set running it is best to specify which folders are to be scanned These can be anywhere in your system but the screen shot below shows all of the sub folders in the Channalyze program folder as being selected ZZ Select Folders For AutoScanning Auran Canon CCSPrograms Channalyze O DownloadBe C Program Files Channalyze Add AboveFolder Securities i Dustbin i FTSE100 O FTSE100W Mark
29. three standard deviations of the usual price movement over the selected period of 1 3 or 5 days is taken as the significant movement This value of the sensitivity can be changed by clicking on the Sensitivity StdDevs item 83 CHAPTER 4 zos Specify number of standard devi Seles Enter number 2 to 5 Bo Cancel Help OF Before any calculation can proceed it is also necessary to enter the number of days over which the super rises or falls must occur Once a time period of 1 to 5 days is chosen see next page the plot is scanned for movements larger than the selected sensitivity in the required direction or both directions if Both has been chosen from the sub menu The positions of these are marked by vertical lines in the colors selected from the Colors item in the sub menu The lower chart on the next page shows Super Rises for Agilent Technology If required for research purposes the timescale can be changed to numbers instead of dates so that the intervals between Super Rises can be estimated In the chart on the next page the grid has also been changed to a very pale color to make it virtually invisible for clarity It is suggested that green is used as the color for Super Rises and red the color for Super Falls By doing this the user will not get confused about which lines can be attributed to rises or falls 84 CALCULATIONS Specify number of days for supe Miela Enter number 1 to 5 Can
30. until changed Enlarging a section of the chart with the mouse The seventh button in the row of buttons at the top of the chart has an icon depicting a magnifying glass Clicking on this with the mouse will change the cursor to a cross To enlarge a section position the cursor at the top left of the section of the chart that you wish to enlarge Then press the mouse button and keep it pressed while you move the mouse to the bottom right of the required section A box with a solid line is shown as the mouse is moved 46 CUSTOM GRAPHS Ea Channalyze Dex File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help Agilent Technolo Brit Am Tobacco British Airways Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo Agilent Technolo 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 Point Num 1415 Mon 11 06 2007 0 37 38 H 37 92 L 37 15 C 37 71 Y value at Cursor 26 36061 06 12 2007 10 43 Once the mouse is released the section within the box is re plotted to fill the chart space Agilent Technolo Brit Am Tobacco British Airways Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo Agilent Technolo foe eee i 27 i i 26 5 Bi 1150 1175 1200 1225 1250 1275 1300 1325 1350 1375 1400 1425 4 gt 8606 75 9182 700 159 75 735 8803 06 12 2007 10 44 47 CHAPTER 3 Changing the timescale As already discussed the number of points plotted can be changed from the Screen menu by selecting t
31. you are able to select many calculations these will be confusing if they are all plotted at once This can be avoided by using the Delete Enable Disable Calculations item page 81 54 CALCULATIONS Paj Channalyze Chans Cycles Reports Version Help alculations C Fie Securities Prices Graph Number of Calculations Moving Averages alculation G Add MA Difference Bollinger Bands Commodity Channel Index Channels Millard Cycles Delete Selected Calculations Delete All Calculations Enable Disable Calculation Super Rises or Falls Millard Probability Calculation gt Cycle Sums Experiment with Sine Waves ONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONODJE Agilent Technolo Brit Am Tobacco British Airways Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo 08 07 06 05 04 09 46 07 03 2008 12 As shown there are five different averages from which to choose ing moving averages We will start by select Version Help Chans Cycles Reports lations cul al C File Securities Prices Graph Number of Calculations Moving Averages ulation Add Cale Triangular Linearly Weighted Exponential Bollinger Bands Commodity Channel Index Channels Millard Cycles Delete Selected Calculations Delete All Calculations Enable Disable Calculation Super Rises or Falls Millard Probability Calcula
32. 11 2007 18 47 File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version x Agilent Technolo 3 Click to DECREASE minimum Y value by one interval 25 11 2007 18 50 10 INTRODUCTION Charting a Security from the Stocklist If the Stocklist is displayed then it is only necessary to click on the security name in the Stocklist for that security to be charted along with any calculations that have been imposed If there are more securities in the list than can fit into the current height of the screen then of course the list can be scrolled by using the slider on the right hand side of the Stocklist panel If you have a lengthy list of securities which might be out of alphabetical order or perhaps you are not sure of the name or short code of a particular security then another way to select it is to use the Securities item on the menu bar The first item in the drop down list is Find a Security Britis Delete Securities in Temporary List Copy Securities in Temporary List Move Securities in Temporary List Create a New Security Make a New Security Folder ha Selecting this will bring up a box into which the security name or part thereof or the short code name or part thereof can be entered The list will be searched for those securities which match the entered text string As an example when the securities in the SP500 1 folder are displayed entering Jo will find all the securities with t
33. 4 tat Field order TPDOHLEY LSE_ 20071025 tut LSE_ 20071026 txt Date format ry MMDD LSE 20071029 txt seer aE LSE_ 20071030 tet Date location within file LSE 20071031 txt LSE 20071102 tet Updating files stored iri EE Aa C E0DData4LSE LSE_ 20071107 tut LSE_20071108 tst L LSE 20077109 bet Number of target folders 4 LSE_ 2001172 tut L5E_20071113 txt LSE _20071114 txt CE 2071115 bur 4 Save Format Cancel Parameters for London Pre set Formats Custom Format Check Format Folders First 500 lines in file E Current format SAUKD20071024 1745 5 1750 46 1731 69 1735 1 0 AE 5 0 20071024 4410 96 4421 27 4375 76 4386 44 0 pone eRe iea ieee AGELLD 20071024 5108 29 5121 95 5065 56 5076 45 0 Field order TPOOQHLCY 4GGL D 20071024 7113 96 7121 44 7006 96 7028 72 0 4GJA D 20071 024 5759 01 5759 01 5759 01 5759 01 0 Date format Y YYMMDD 4GL1 D 20071024 6083 09 6088 36 5986 11 6008 570 ea A4GUK D 20071024 5549 29 5575 03 5506 73 5522 93 0 Date location within file 4GUS D 20071024 5668 95 5668 95 5537 95 5558 43 0 Extension TXT 4UKS D 20071 024 5485 66 5488 4 5423 96 5407 0 F 4051 0 20071024 5439 46 5439 46 531 3 475333 24 0 i 888 0 20071024 111 5 112 5 110 112 991 366 Updating tiles stored in AAO D 20071024546 68 553 23 539 56 540 72 0 CA EODData LSE AAB D 2007102421 2616 35 68 21 2616 35 680 AAC D 20071024 34333433 3433 3433 0 d ASD D 20071024 2684 5 2688 2884 5 288
34. 5 It can be seen that the extrapolation correctly predicts the position of the next peak and trough although the fine detail of the original set of data is somewhat smoothed out 103 CHAPTER 5 1 250 1000 1100 1200 1400 1500 1600 Hanson f 200 r r r r r r r r r r 7 250 ICAP 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 gt Lower Frames of Cycle Panel These are shown below Doppler Set Maximum Shift zo H End Analysis Results E wit The Results button will bring up the Distribution plot at any time while the Exit button closes the Cycle Panel Doppler Set Maximum Shift This sets the allowable shift between successive peaks to peak and trough to trough distances A feature of stock market cycles is that the wavelength phase and amplitude are all changing constantly We wish to catch cycles when they are at their most Stable from this point of view since under these conditions their future course is much more predictable Therefore a limit needs to be set on this movement Changes greater than this pre set figure are then not used in the distribution plot A value of 20 is acceptable 104 Chapter 6 Cycles in Market Data From the exercises in the last chapter you should now have an appreciation of how you can isolate individual cycles from a complex mixture of cycles You will also understand that ext
35. 6 0 Number of target folders 4 AAM D 20071024 28 25 29 25 27 5 27 5 0 AAL D 00T NTA We 71169 2025 AeA 7770R17 4 Ii Save Format Renna 141 CHAPTER 7 At this point you could examine items such as the date format and field order to check that it is in agreement with the settings stored on the left of the form However this task can be performed for you by clicking on Show Field Order in the drop down menu You are then shown a form in which the fields have been interpreted Channalyze Updater Using the settings TPDOHLCV SL the fields will be interpreted as Ticker AAL Name Not present Date 24 10 2007 Period D Open 3106 High 3159 Low 3035 Close 3054 Volume 7739512 Open Int Mot present Check above especially the date very carefully To change settings if above is not correct Use Pre set Settings or Custom Settings This form needs to be studied very carefully since errors in the way the date is displayed for example will have serious repercussions in the updating process If a date is misinterpreted so that the year is some way into the future then the data is stored for this date giving the user a hard time in making sense of any charts Within the Channalyze program records can be deleted but it is a tedious process and can be avoided by taking care at this stage It is possible that data providers may change the file format without notice and this again would cause
36. DFAJAODFAJAODFAJAODFAJAODFAJAODFAJA 02 03 04 05 06 07 0 gt Click to INCREASE maximum Y value by one interval 07 12 2007 09 09 Delete Enable Disable Calculations These as their name suggests allow the user to remove a calculation from the list or enable or disable it while still keeping it in the list lf Delete Calculation is chosen a form is displayed which shows the current list of calculations It is necessary to click on the name of the calculation to select it Once the calculation has been chosen a confirmation box is displayed allowing the process to be aborted if you have second thoughts about the deletion ae Delete Calculation Calc Name Extrap Color Enabled Period Period 1 M Difference 2 Triangular Average SS 4 Click on the name of the calculation to select it Accept Cancel Deletions Deletions 81 CHAPTER 4 Delete 2 Delete Item 1 MA Difference Cancel The Enable Disable Calculation allows a calculation to be left in the list to avoid having to add all of its details again if it becomes necessary to use it but to keep it from being applied until it is enabled again EE Enable Disable Calculation Sle Calc Name E strap Color T Feriod Period 1 MA Difference 2 ove Average 3 Click on the name of the calculation to select it Accept Cancel Changes Changes Once an item has been selected a confirmation box is shown Disable Enable Eg 2 Dis
37. Data Cut Off Color j Line Thickness k i UN ta ee ee ee ee Paints gt Restore Appearance as Shipped Undo Previous Rescale E T TE Songs IC Heo oer REO Rec Oeste Spoor ele ee e a a gene ee Sel eee Cee A ee eS es ee eh al ee ee te eee oe A we ee ee ge ee ee ee ee eee ei ee le ple EEEE Sco eaasansanadanancanaanannancaadabaasdsatilmaasadmadcasandaauaaoaa Baca ocd Wade aa ese ubeaals RNa i O TIELE TETS 1 ee ee te i i i i i E IR SR SI BAA SRS S ST E PEE a T aa aS Sar E E E S E a a a esac As shown the Data Style option will give five further options The Lines option plots the data in the way shown in the chart on the first page 37 CHAPTER 3 The HiLoCI and OpHiLoCl options will plot the data as bars the first being the high low and closing values of the data while the second also includes the open value This second type of plot is shown below 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 The detail is not easy to see in this lengthy time span but a portion of the chart can be expanded to show individual day data A simple way of expanding the latest portion of the chart is to select the Points item on the Graph menu For expanding other portions of the chart see later in this chapter 38 CUSTOM GRAPHS E Channalyze Fie Securities Prices Mejeiin Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version
38. Help Buttons Stocklist Templist etc Background Color Agilent Technolo Brit 4m Tobacco Data gt British Airways Grids gt Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo dice ah i i piot so Ponts fo Restore Appearance as Shipped Points Shift in File Read I S O Plot 200 Points Undo Previous Rescale Plot 500 Points Plot All Points 4 Bb Ma 5 Se eee ee oe bal Eee we mmm mee nee we qeeeeeensenese esses d Bole gece ep r ese e ogee cece er eee qe a ee rrr ee ene eee BS SOS So oe oe oe poe Cee Se SS SS Ss Se he SSS Sar a As shown above the last 100 points have been selected The chart will be redrawn and the detail will be much more obvious i i i 32 a 1390 1400 1410 1420 1430 1440 1450 1460 1470 1480 1490 1500 1510 4 Heikin Ashi This is a form of candlestick plot as shown in the chart over where again the last 100 points have been plotted 39 CHAPTER 3 Fal Channalyze DES ities Pri File ile Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Yersion Help N y gt 2 21 all eo 2 Agil Agi Brit Am Tobacco gilent Technolo gilent Technolo British Airways McDonald s Corpo There are five scenarios that can be distinguished 1 Trend is normal Rising trend rising white bodies Falling trend falling filled bodies 2 Trend gets stronger Rising trend rising longer white bodies with no lower shadows Falling trend fal
39. OND AF 4 Click to DECREASE minimum Y value by one interval 07 12 2007 06 47 57 CHAPTER 4 Fiche Eel File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help N a PS echnolo McDonald s Corpo obacco i Si Agilent Technol m 42 1275 1300 1325 1350 1375 1400 1425 1450 1475 1500 1525 4 b Point Num 1524 Fri 09 11 2007 Outside data range 07 12 2007 06 52 The difference between an average with no lag and one which is centered can be seen in the chart above A shorter time frame has been used and the line thickness of the averages increased to medium from thin for better visibility The statement that an average is a smoother version of the data itself can be verified from this chart The reason for using centered averages is also apparent since these are much more closely aligned with the data However as can be seen the penalty for achieving this alignment is that the average terminates half a span back in time This is helpful in illustrating that what is happening to the average in the gap between the last true calculated point and the present time can only be estimated An average can change direction in this gap and the change not become obvious until after the event The properties of averages in dealing with cycles can be tested in a similar manner to the testing of the cycle scanner in Chapter 6 Triangular Moving Average Triangular moving averages are so called beca
40. Replot with New z Print Obviously the most persistent cycle is the one around scan value 150 Click on Get Cycle 1 and move the cursor until it is hovering over the highest bar in this group The values of wavelength and persistence will be shown in the box at the bottom of the plot as the cursor moves right or left Once on the major peak click on the mouse so as to accept this wavelength The values of the scan which highlight this particular cycle are shown in the box alongside the Get Cycle 1 button next page The reason that sometimes there is more than one value in this box is because the mathematical routine as we saw in the last chapter does not eliminate all cycles other than the major one There are still often residual cycles of other wavelengths present Thus cycles of a particular wavelength are present in other scans Also the wavelengths being scanned for are not necessarily highlighted by that particular scan value 107 CHAPTER 6 Pa Cycle Distribution 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 aod o CoO ETA ee OK Close Data Wavelength 152 Persistence 25 Allowable variation 25 24 peniot with New z Print In the current case the wavelength 152 has been produced by scan values of 200 and 203 Close or minimize the distribution plot click on OK Close or the icon in the box title strip for the moment and the plot of the cycle that has been chosen will be visible This particular cycle wnose wa
41. S gt KI Buttons Stocklist Templist etc Background Color gt Agilent Technolo Data British Airways Grids Margins Points Restore Appearance as Shipped AE Pe ene Se Undo Previous Rescale 20 700 800 300 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 gt 4 Click to label time scale with DATES 05 12 2007 12 45 We have already discussed the first item Buttons Stocklist Templist etc as the item which allows the user to change what is shown on screen Background Color When this item is selected a color palette box see next page is presented from which you can choose the background color The user should avoid strong colors other than black and go for pastel shades or white if the color as shipped is not to the user s taste It may be necessary to change the color of the grids if these are to be visible against certain backgrounds 36 CUSTOM GRAPHS Basic colors Custom colors rast fe EEE EEE ES Define Custom Colors gt gt Data This will bring up a sub menu in which the style and color of the data can be specified Channalyze File Securities Prices KaG Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help fa t r gt Buttons Stocklist Templist etc Background Color Agilent Technolo Data m Data Style 5 ines Brit Am Tobacco F British Ai Grid gt Data Col es ee rids ata Color omma uegeeean opos Heikin Ashi f a sk McDonald s Corpo Margins
42. SONOD JF 05 06 0 08 04 af aa Point Num 1365 N A 0 563 5 H 571 5 L 561 5 C 569 Y value at Cursor 474 4727 10 12 2007 06 28 Sum Red wavelengths from 15 to 35 117 CHAPTER 6 Paj Channalyze Cex File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help aia 4 N c EZ PA N eB I I re RBBB Single Wavelength Lloyds TSB 625 Set Wavelength i Heer i o E EE noa fs 4 Go x Wy tgs Gr act et doe a a a ae ss ais cat ae Ge Nudge Step 7 H i i p 575 Nudge Up Down H ni b ifi H 525 C elengths H ER ee eee 500 Start End m li is de eee di 4 4 Mm eet ee t l t i d i l b b t d i d l b 4 4 ee ie ied tee ee 475 Insteps of f iy l DE i E p 425 m 590 400 MV Plot while scanning Go Stop 04 Doppler Set Maximum Shift 2 a el Gem Ce Cas a D S S ee ee ne Ge ne a ed el et SE a S E E ONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONOD J F 05 06 07 08 Sum of all cycles from 64 to 350 400 End Analysis Results Exit 04 ONDJFMAMJJASONDJIFMAMJJASONODJFMAMJJASONOD JF 05 D6 Oo 08 4 Click to label time scale with NUMBERS 10 12 2007 06 29 Sum Red wavelengths from 63 to 350 The reason for being able to sum these bands separately is to give the user a powerful research tool into short term medium term and long term movements in market data Short term traders will find
43. TER 3 Restoring Appearance as Shipped There might come a point at which you have changed so much that you have forgotten what the chart first looked like In this case you can revert to the original appearance by clicking on this item in the Graph menu Undo Previous Rescale Whether the last rescale has involved the Y axis or the time axis by using hotspots points plotted at start up or the magnifier then it can be undone by using the Undo Previous Rescale item on the Graph drop down menu How to rescale a plot is discussed further on in this chapter Labeling Colors and Fonts The Graph menu does not give any option to change the size style or color of the Title the X axis label or the Y axis label However they can easily be changed by clicking the right button of the mouse This will bring up a floating menu of options from which the desired item can be chosen and changed If the Title area of the plot is clicked with the mouse right hand button then the two options presented are to change the color or the font The Color box has already been described in this chapter so needs no further explanation If the Font item is selected then the Font Selection box is displayed 44 CUSTOM GRAPHS Font style R egular F Myriad Condensed we F Myriad Web O Myriad Web Pro Sample AaBbryzz Script Westem From this you can access any font held in your computer left hand panel choose its style an
44. a problem It Is sensible to check the format of the updating files periodically to check that all is well 142 UPDATING YOUR DATA FILES Custom Formats If your file format is not one of the pre set ones or even if you find that there is something wrong with a pre set format you can use the Custom Format item to change or create a new format Choosing this item will display two options a Parameters for London Pre set Formats Custom Format Check Format Folders Specify Field Order Current format Specify Date Ticker Location Name Field order Date format Date location within file Extension Updating files stored in Number of target folders 0 eT Save Format Cancel Taking the Specify Field Order item first a tabbed form will be displayed with each tab giving the opportunity to enter the required detail PEt es OF x Extension Field Order Date Format Units Skip Lines e g D M TAT CSW MET D Hote only 1 to 3 characters allowed Cancel Apply Help 143 CHAPTER 7 Two items which are not displayed under the Current Format details are the Units and Skip Lines It is now not very common to have stock units specified in anything other than decimal but this option allows for eighths sixteenths and thirty seconds The Skip Lines option caters for those files which contain a few lines of headers before the lines containing stock data wi
45. a space Next decide how these are displayed for example if a hyphen and based on 32 enter as 32 If slash and based on 16 enter 16 If space and based on 8 then enter space 8 8 Skip lines This could equally be titled Header Lines When the file is viewed it will be obvious how many lines there are at the beginning of the file before the first data line is encountered In the example shown earlier there were none but as mentioned some text files contain a very helpful header line in which case the skip line would be entered as 1 Occasionally there may be files which have more than one line before the first data line in which case enter the number of such lines here Note if there is a header line and the number of skip lines has been set at zero then Channalyze assumes the header line is a data line This will give meaningless values for date and the data values When the file is being read prior to plotting the data this fact will be signified by a message saying that there is a problem with the data format and that the format should be reset 18 INTRODUCTION 9 Months string The default for this is JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec The string is used to convert alphabetical months in the date item into a numeric value 1 to 12 If the date string is different perhaps because it is held in a language other than English then the string can be changed in this box The only restriction is that each month mu
46. a the internet It is usual to use upper case characters for this You can either click on this box or press the Tab key which is a general convention by which you can cycle around various input boxes on any form Once the symbol has been entered you will need to select the periodicity which can be daily weekly or monthly Clicking on the down arrow at the side of this box will give the options Select Daily at this point The next item is the Display Units box There is a note underneath which explains that you should enter O if the data is to be presented as decimal data i e 234 75 However many stocks are quoted with fractional parts usually thirty seconds In 28 SECURITIES AND PRICES such a case enter 32 for thirty seconds or 16 if the fractions are sixteenths The first and last dates shown will be the date on which you are creating the new security and since there is no data in it yet the start and end of the data is the same If this is the only security that you wish to create at this time click on OK If you wish to keep on adding click OK MORE Obviously clicking Cancel will cancel this operation If you have clicked OK More then a fresh form will be presented with the fields filled in as Security2 SYMBOL2 and so on Once you have entered all of the securities that you wish click on OK to finish the operation The new securities will then be shown in the securities panel The name symbol periodicity and d
47. aaar oa raha Dadoak aaeain star glial tl darasa tay boston pia gil LiowlscUacdbsabocbvedsodcadsccl coloulousscdsabcabecdeadsedboabecbocdvodsethocbeeloctoodsadbeubselvolosUsedbedbocbscdcodsotbestou FAJAQODFAJAODFAJAODFAJAODFAJAQDFAJAODFAJIA 02 03 04 05 06 0 08 Paj Channalyze DES File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Yersion Help Agilent Technolo Brit Am Tobacco British Airways Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo British Airways JAS OND JFMAMJJASOND J FMAM J JASON DJS FMAM J J 05 06 07 08 4 gt Click to DECREASE minimum Y value by one interval 07 12 2007 08 41 Quite clearly the price data has now risen well above the upper boundary of the extrapolated channel The distance above the upper boundary is far greater than anything which has happened in the past history of this channel and the data This indicates 14 CALCULATIONS that almost certainly the channel has now changed direction and is headed upwards This possibility should be examined in more detail by using the cycle scanner see Chapter 6 The channel bending routine can also be of assistance Channel Bending Sometimes the user will feel that the channel should be in a different position from that which has been computed by the program In such a case the Channel Bending routine will allow the user to manually adjust the position and turning point in the channel by changing the bend This bending routine can be invoked f
48. able Item 1 Channel Cancel When it is required to enable this calculation again a similar box to that above will be shown with the message Enable Item 1 Channel or whichever item has been chosen 82 CALCULATIONS Super Rises and Falls The Calculations menu leads to an item Super Rises or Falls The sub menu from this is shown below File Securities Prices Graph PAMAWA Chans Cycles Reports Version Help gt Kra Oi cca a AL Add Calculation Agilent Technolo Delete Calculation Brit Am Tobacco N S Bee British Airways Enable Disable Calculation Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo gt Super Rises Millard Probability Calculation gt Super Falls Cycle Sums gt Both Experiment with Sine Waves Colors oa Span in Days for Rises Falls Sensitivity std devs Clear From plot CEE This calculation can be used as a valuable tool in the study of earthquakes An earthquake Millard Profitable Charting Techniques Wiley amp Sons Ltd 1997 is a formation where the price rises or falls by an extreme amount and then at some point later moves equally extremely in the opposite direction When the initial movement is a fall the pattern looks just like a landslip that occurs during an actual earthquake When the return leg of the formation will occur is difficult to predict but if it is caught offers the prospect of a large profit Initially a change of
49. al Conversely when the value falls below 20 then traders take this to be a buy signal 66 CALCULATIONS Agilent Technolo Agilent Technolo Brit Am Tobacco i British Airways Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo 04 ONDJFMAMJJASONDJIFMAMJJASONDJIFMAMJIJASONODJF 05 07 08 4 Point Num 1530 Thur 15 11 2007 Outside data range Y value at Cursor 33 79528 07 03 2008 09 27 Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands consist of 1 A middle band being a n period simple moving average 2 An upper band at k times an n period standard deviation above the middle band 3 A lower band at k times an n period standard deviation below the middle band Typical values for n and k are 20 and 2 respectively These are the values used in Channalyze Because the value used for n is relatively low short term fluctuations are still apparent in the output It is important to realize that Bollinger Bands bear no resemblance to Channalyze channels which are of constant depth The input box for Bollinger Bands is shown on the next page 67 CHAPTER 4 F Add Calculation 1 Seles Bollinger Bands Properties Period 1 ao zc Ok f Nolag Note the greyed out box for the period which is set at 20 The plot as shown below has no lag Channalyze EEx File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help Agilent Technolo Brit Am Tobacco British Airways Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo
50. ales ecne Gintaemredas 46 Scaling the Price AXIS erena a ET 49 Plotting in One Box OF TWO simeriisieissnrannaa 49 Screen IOISDOlS isu ua teicidianccacshdaviaaubiad iad and eeauntceniaes 49 CHAPTER 4 Calculations ccccccesseeeseeeeeeeeeees 53 Simple MOVING AVELaGE cccccccceecccececeseeseeeeseeeeaeeees 56 Triangular Moving AVEragGe ccccceccecceeseeeeeeeeseeeeeees 58 DOUDIS AVEA JO aironi a E s 60 Linearly Weighted and Exponential Averages 61 MA Moving Average Difference cccceceeeeeees 61 MACD Moving Average Convergence Divergence 64 RSI Relative Strength Index cccccecccseeeeeeeeeeeeeees 66 BONOS BANOS aero acestnermcti ac nintedeninanideenienebab cna 67 CCI Commodities Channel Index cccccceecee eee es 69 CANNES asesi 70 CHANG DENGING ves cs2asurrstad tue a hens 15 Changing Channel Depth ccccccecceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaes 78 Millard Cycles M urnon N 80 Delete Enable Disable CalculationS 00100n0n000000n 81 Super Rises and FalllS ccccccseeceeeceseeteseteneeeeeeseeees 83 Millard ProbaDUy eraran 86 CONTENTS CHAPTER 5 Experiment with Sine Waves 91 Reduction in AMplitude ccccccccceccseeeeeeeeeeseeeeeeeeees 98 Scanning for Cycles eraco ir arneo rerni 99 Lower Frames of Cycle Panel ccccccceeeseeeeeeees 104 Doppler Set Maximum Shift eee cece eee eeee e
51. alues of 15 and 350 with an increment value of 1 The scan is started by clicking on the Go button A scan can be stopped at any time by clicking on the Stop button A scan can be restarted once again by clicking on the Go button In this case a message is given as to whether to restart from the latest value or from the overall start point 105 CHAPTER 6 Pa Channalyze KES File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Rygg KIME KRENA mm Agie nt Te chnolo Scan Wavelengths Start End 15 350 In steps of Good Count 27 Curent wave 350 iw Plot while scanning Stop Note as the scan progresses the Good Count box shown above will start to increment its values This is the count of the number of cycles considered to be stable over their last few sweeps when the current value of Doppler Percentage is applied The higher this count the more is the influence that cycles have in the latest segment of stock movement Once the scan has been completed the distribution plot is displayed 106 CYCLES IN MARKET DATA Paj Cycle Distribution Get Cycle 2 Get Cycle 3 Get Cycle 4 Plot 1 Plot 2 MedHi Divide at 75 an Sum Red Sum Green Plot 3 Plot 4 cakes Divide at 125 Sum Blue Plot All Agilent T 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 aoc o o ee ee OK Close Data Allowable variation 25 a
52. ary list Once this Copy Security item is chosen then the folder chooser is displayed with a caption Select Target Folder You can then choose the target folder in exactly the same way as you chose the current folder Copying will then proceed and once the operation is finished the message Security copied successfully is displayed Note 1 you are not allowed to copy securities into the Channalyze program folder If you select this as the target then a message box appears alerting you to this fact Note 2 you cannot copy a security so as to overwrite a security with the same name or symbol held in the target folder A message will be displayed with the name of the duplicate security You must click on this for the process to jump to the next security in the list if there is one Note 3 this operation does not copy a security or securities from somewhere else to the current folder but the reverse of this 26 SECURITIES AND PRICES Moving Securities in Temporary List This operation is similar to the previous one except that once the securities are copied to the target folder they are then deleted from the current folder and from the list shown in the left hand panel Creating a New Security We will first of all go through the exercise of adding a new security storing it and changing its properties name symbol etc It will be added to the current folder If you wish to add a security to another existing fo
53. at then there will already be entries for each item The next task is to specify how the Updater can find the appropriate date for the updating data The sequence to get to this item is Market Parameters Set or Change Parameters Custom Format Specify Date Ticker Locations This brings up a form in which options can be selected If the In the Filename is clicked then the lower panel is greyed out since it does not apply If the In the filename is selected then the middle panel is greyed out Line number containing date OK Cancel T Ticker location C Ticker in every line f Ticker in filename 145 CHAPTER 7 If the Within the file itself is selected then the middle panel becomes enabled In the case of the Within the file itself option there are two possibilities The Date in one line option would be used for those types of file in which one of the first few header files contain the date We would then use the Line number containing date box to enter the line number in which the date is held The files from EODData for example have the date in every line and so the Date in every line option would be selected Date Ticker Location Where date held f nthe filename OK Which line f Date in every line Cancel C Date in one line Line number containing date T Ticker location C Ticker in every line C Tickerin filename The position of the ticker can be specified in t
54. ation based on the isolated cycle although this is not perfectly clean up to that point This extrapolation into the future is used in all scans of cycles whether in simulated data or real stock market data Reduction in Amplitude It will be noticed that if you examine the vertical scales of the isolated cycles then there is a reduction in the amplitude compared with that used when the cycles were set up using the Sine Wave Generator This reduction in the apparent amplitude of the cycle is an unavoidable consequence of the mathematics of the scanning algorithm What it means is that in real stock data the cycles that are isolated have rather more influence in the stock price movement than is apparent from the plot of the cycle itself An idea of the relationship between apparent 98 EXPERIMENT WITH SINE WAVES amplitude actual amplitude and wavelength can be obtained by experimenting with different values in the sine wave generator Scanning for Cycles What we have done so far is based on a knowledge of which cycles were present in the simulated data Of course in stock market data we don t know this and the object is to find out which cycle is present The cycle scanning routines are the way in which this can be achieved and the power of the technique can be shown by using the scanning routine on the simulated data to see if it will show that there are cycles of wavelengths 41 201 and 301 present The middle section in
55. ayed with the security code or securities codes that match the search string 21 CHAPTER 2 Mian Security Enter name or symbol Kellogg Click on item to select it 23r K Ewit with Selection Options fe Find by name f Find by symbol Abort The 237 shown along with the code K means that the security K Kellogg was found in position 237 in the list If a plot of any of the securities displayed is not required then of course the Abort button can be clicked To plot one of the displayed securities it is necessary to click the mouse on whichever security is required even if there is only one shown as in this example This security is then highlighted in the main panel on the left hand side of the screen Finally clicking on Exit with Selection will display a plot of the selection Security Properties This will show the following data on the currently selected security pe Security Properties Kellogg Company Symbol K Periodicity Display Units fr O decimal 16 1 16 32 1 32 etc First Date 19 01 1996 Last Date 03 10 2007 Cancel 22 SECURITIES AND PRICES Sorting Securities This will sort the securities into alphabetical order and only need to be used if you have added a security or changed the name of a security so that it would occupy a different place in the alphabetical order Once the list has been sorted you will notice that the first security now becomes the selected
56. cel E Channalyze E o x File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Yersion Help Agilent Technolo Agilent Technolo Brit m Tobacco oE re British Airways ryror oe Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo 4 gt Click to INCREASE maximum Y value by one interval 07 12 2007 09 18 In some cases the start or end of an earthquake can be determined by using the cycle scanner see next chapter Where earthquakes occur it will be noticed that a number of cycles are all bottoming out or topping out at the same time Thus a prediction where it appears that this will be happening shortly will indicate a probable earthquake about to happen 85 CHAPTER 4 Millard Probability The drop down menu gives a number of options File Securities Prices Graph ESMA Chans Cycles Reports Version Help Number of Calculations N Add Calculation Agilent Technolo Delete Calculation r 7 7 575 Brit m Tobacco ih it i i rot er rot British Airways Enable Disable Calculation Meee ge ee eee tle se Reet el ee te ee Lloyds TSB p Ri Fall McDonald s Corpo Upet Rees Ore AE aE a E Number of Trials Cycle Sums Days Forward Experiment with Sine Waves Band Colors me Do it ClearFrom Plot Before the calculation can proceed it is necessary to enter the number of trials and the number of days forward for which the probability
57. d from this value as shown later Thus with a plot containing say 1000 data points the boundaries would be automatically located so that 35 of the points would be outside the boundaries Some of these points would be above and some below the channel and not necessarily split 50 50 above and below When a channel is inspected it will be seen that when a price approaches a boundary it retreats from it Thus a boundary is a place of high probability for a price reversal When predicting future movement therefore an approach to an extrapolated boundary is an indication that a price reversal is probably taking place The word probably is used advisedly for two reasons Firstly the extrapolated boundary is an estimate of the actual position of the boundary Secondly there are of course random influences which can result in extreme movements to take the price outside of the estimated boundary position As each new data point is brought in the estimate of the boundary position will be updated t is important therefore that the user does not anticipate such a price reversal but waits until it becomes clear that the price has retreated from the boundary 11 CHAPTER 4 it is also important that the user applies the cycle scanning routine Chapter 5 which will confirm that a major cycle is also about to change direction An example of a channel which is indicating a reversal of direction is that for the 201 day channel in British American
58. d its size The current font style and size will be highlighted A sample of the chosen font is shown in the Sample panel Changing the Y axis Right clicking on the right hand price axis will bring up the following floating menu This shows the items whose properties can be changed i axis Color Y axis Font Stocklist Font Pricelist Font The other items which are not strictly graph items are the font used in the Stocklist panel whenever the panel is displayed and the font used in the prices display if that is shown instead of a chart 45 CHAPTER 3 Changing the X axis Clicking on the X axis with the right hand mouse button brings up the following floating menu Label with Dates Label with Numbers axis Colors b a axis Font The X axis can be labelled with either dates or numbers It is not possible to specify different fonts for the days months and years if the x axis is labelled with dates If the X axis is labelled with dates then the user can have different colors for the day month and year labels Note the user can change rapidly between dates and numbers on the X axis by clicking on the X axis scale using the left hand mouse button Using hot spots in this way is described later in this chapter Changing the Scales Points plotted on start up This was discussed at the beginning of the chapter The number of points to be plotted will remain the default value in future sessions with Channalyze
59. dd a New Market will display a form into which the name of the market can be entered As shown up to 25 characters including the space and underscore characters can be used to name the market 129 CHAPTER 7 B Add a Market Exchange Seles Currently Stored Markets Enter Hew Market name below mas 25 characters London E Add the New Market No Markets Stored 0K Accept Changes Cancel Once the market name has been entered clicking on Add the New Market will add it to the list in the left hand box Clicking on OK Accept Changes will then store the name of this market which will then be shown in the main form Ej Universal Updater Markets Market Parameters Updating Update Log Channalyze Current market London 27 10 2007 10 05 130 UPDATING YOUR DATA FILES Setting the Format of the Updating Files This is done via the Market Parameters menu Clicking on this item shows a drop down menu which allows you to Choose Market or Set or Change Parameters Click on Choose Market even though in this case there is only one London Then select the market for which you wish to enter the format As an example the screen for setting parameters for London is shown below Parameters for London Pre set Formats Custom Format Check Format Folders Current format Mame Field order Date format Date location within file Extension Updating files stored in Number of target folders 0 Save Format
60. e ek hn we eo ice tte te o Lloyds TSB ce g McDonald s Corpo 20 point CCI SaaS SS E So See ee eee ONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJF 05 06 04 af ay Channels When this item is selected a box is shown in which you can change three parameters the period the color in which the calculated portion will be plotted and the color for the extrapolated portion fe Add Calculation 2 Sele Channel Properties Period 1 Extrapolated color 70 CALCULATIONS The calculation is based on a centered triangularly weighted moving average As such the channel would terminate half a span back in time from the latest data point The program does a curve fit to the last few points of the calculated average to determine the path which the average should take to bring it up to date As such it is of course subject to an error but as we will see shortly the user is able to adjust this extrapolated portion manually if it is felt that the channel could be constructed more accurately In order to clearly see this extrapolated part it is strongly suggested that a different color is selected for it in order to emphasize that it is a best guess The channel itself is built from the average by calculating where the upper and lower boundaries should be placed in order that a certain percentage of data points should lie outside of these boundaries This percentage is usually set at 3 5 but can be change
61. ecurity as it is plotted This list is created via the Add Calculation item and can be maintained by the Delete Enable Disable items next page At this stage there are no calculations stored so clicking on the first item Number of Calculations will give the message that there are no calculations When there are some calculations this message will state their number and allow you to see them 53 CHAPTER 4 ES Channalyze ia File Securities Prices Graph Chans Cycles Reports Version Help Number of Calculations Add Calculation b Agilent Technolo Brit m Tobacco Delete Selected Calculations British Airways Lloyds TSB Delete All Calculations McDonald s Corpo Enable Disable Calculation Super Rises or Falls Millard Probability Calculation Cycle Sums Experiment with Sine Waves The next stage is to add a calculation This item leads to another drop down menu which displays a list of the possible calculations These fall into two categories those that use the same vertical scale as the stock data and those that require a different scale The latter are plotted in a second box on the screen The former are the moving averages channels and Bollinger Bands and the latter the MA Difference moving average difference MACD RSI CCI and Millard Cycles Note Bollinger Bands MACD RSI and CCI are present in Channalyze only as a convenience for those traders who have used them in the past Since
62. ers Markets MID250 O MID250w Remove Selected i Samples i SP500 1 SP500 2 Remove All i sp500 3 Citeknet Classic PhoneTc w This can be done for all the folders you wish to update from this one set of updating files Shown on the next page is a form in which four folders containing data from the London market have been selected in sequence 138 UPDATING YOUR DATA FILES Once you have chosen all the folders you wish to be updated then click on OK to take you back to the Parameters As shown the number of target folders has changed from 0 to 4 Ej Select Folders for Updating Auran Canon CCSPrograms CQ Channalyze Add Above Folder oO naa C Program Files Channalyze FT SE 100 Dustbin C Program Files Channalyze MID 250 FTSE100 Add Sub Folders C Program Files Channalyze FTSE100W i FTSE100W C Program Files Channalyze MID 250 Markets London Remove Selected MID250 OG MID250W Samples Remove All i SP500 1 i SP500 2 s503 y gt Folders Securities Cancel Parameters for London Pre set Formats Custom Format Check Format Folders Current format Name EOD Metastock Field order TPOOHLCY Date format iy MMDD Date location within file Extension TAT i Updating files stored in CAEODD atas LSE Number of target folders 4 Save Format Cancel 139 CHAPTER 7 Since all items now have details stored for them there is
63. es 104 CHAPTER 6 Cycles in Market Data 105 Closing Opening the Distribution Plot cee 114 Summing Low Medium and High Wavelengths 114 PO C A 118 CHAPTER 7 Updating Data Files 0 127 Overview of the Universal Updater cccceeeeee 127 RUNNING NEU PO AION capia 127 Information Required for Updating to Proceed 129 Adding a New Market cc scccscceeceeceeeeeseeseesees 129 Setting the Format of the Updating Files 131 Using EOD ADVN or Financial Express Files 132 Selecting the Folder Holding Updating Files 136 Selecting the Folders to be Updated e 138 CUSTOM FOMA Sues aeei 143 IS IVICIIU acca oaa maradona guce uameticede 147 List Updating Files to Send to Backup 060 147 AutoSend Updating Files to Backup ccce 149 UDANG eee neme cna eeemetr S 149 Running Channalyze from the Updater 6 150 Chapter 1 Introduction to Channalyze Channalyze is the embodiment of Brian Millard s research into cycles and channels Channalyze incorporates sophisticated mathematical algorithms for isolating cycles from market data If cycles are regular they can be summed to give an indication as to future movement of the security or market index The difficulty is that cycles are subject to random influences so that the
64. es folder contains the sample files which have been used to illustrate this manual For those users who do not have their own Metastock Data folders containing the FTSE 100 FTSE 250 and the S amp P 500 historical data can be downloaded from our web site www qudosmarketinsight com As with the Samples folder these data folders should be installed as sub folders of the program folder Channalyze 3 CHAPTER 1 Once the cycle scanning routine AutoScan see Chapter 6 has been applied to a folder of data files then that folder will contain the sub folders Cycles and Scans These folders hold the results of the cycle scans which can be displayed later if required Changes to Files The program will run in the absence of the dta files since these all contain values which can and probably will be changed by the user at run time In the unlikely event that one or more of these files becomes corrupted and unreadable then the best option is to delete the offending file s and re enter any values that you require via the Channalyze program The Start up Screen While the program is loading the Splash screen will appear After a few seconds the initial screen based on the Windows Explorer style will appear O onannalyze Version 1 0 0 Copyright Qudos Publications Ltd Trading as Qudos Market Insight Do not copy this program it is protected by UK US and European law The first time the program is run the plotting a
65. ets G MID250 G MID250W Samples i SP500 1 i SP500 2 i sp500 3 Citeknet v gt C Program Files Channalyze FTSE100 C Program Files Channalyze FT SE 100 C Program Files Channalyze MID250 C Program Files Channalyze MID250 wW C Program Files Channalyze S amples Add Sub Folders C Program Files Channalyze SP500 1 Remove Selected C Program Files Channalyze SP500 2 Remove All Cancel Once the folders have been selected in this way then AutoScan Cycles can be selected This will give a number of options as shown on the next page 119 CHAPTER 6 The options as shown above are self explanatory except for the Step Profile The Constant increment of one unit option will carry out the same scan as we saw with the Cycle Panel While this is fine if a limited number of securities are scanned it is too time consuming for a large number The user should opt for the second or third options the default value is the second option AutoScan O ptions f m Eg Folder Options f Scan only current folder f Scan folders previously specified Security Options f Scan all secunties f Scan from current security to last in folder f Scan only flagged securities f Scan only unflagged securities f San curent security Step Profile f Constant increment of one unit alow f Linear ramp 1 increasing to 10 fast f Linear ramp 2 increasing to 20 faster Cancel Scan If Scan c
66. for comparing moving averages or channel plots with the cycle plot The summed data will now be read from a file where it has been stored The option is given to plot in a separate box i e the lower box or to overlay it on the data plot and whatever other calculations are displayed on the data 121 CHAPTER 6 Channalyze Plot in separate box This time a 15 point triangularly weighted centered moving average is plotted on the top chart as a thick line for extra visibility i Channalyze File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Hi DHGBSBE2H0BREaRRZ RRBs i Agilent Technolo a a E er a ro cc et oo or CN Pd EMA MAA SS ORR LE OAH DE ESET CORN Re 8 me Ge A 05 06 o7 Cycle Sum scanned on 07 06 2008 Date of last data point 03 10 2007 noaoo ____ __ _ amp ON DL EM AMS 1 KR SE oR FF eae te ee NR OB A rH ee te Oe EO UB 04 05 06 07 Click to INCREASE maximum Y value by one interval 07 06 2008 1313 Since the average represents a trend in the market data it is astonishing how closely the summed cycle data mimics the movement of the average bearing in mind that the cycles from around 150 days in the past to a point into the future has been estimated and is not cast iron calculated data The cycle sum predicts that there should be a slight downward blip in the stock price over the next two weeks followed by a substantial rise after that
67. g the separate probabilities of rises and falls and there is no reason why the distribution of these should be symmetrical as it would be in the case of a normal distribution the bell curve In the present case there is a 95 probability that the price will rise since the band 557 to 566 is above the starting value The probability bands are also displayed graphically as bands in the colors selected via the Bands Colors item in the sub menu The colors should be chosen as pastel shades so that the underlying price movement can be easily seen The probability levels 50 75 and 95 are marked at the boundaries of the bands in the color which has been chosen for the Y axis labels If as is shown below the colors have disappeared because of a clash with the band colors then the Y axis color should be changed to one more visible under these circumstances Note these bands can be cleared from the plot with the Clear From Plot item in the Millard Probability menu 89 CHAPTER 4 Finally the last two items on the Calculations menu are Cycle Sums and Experiment with Sine Waves Channalyze 1 File Securities Prices Graph Chans Cycles Reports Version Help PL fe Agilent Technolo Brit Am Tobacco British Airways Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo Number of Calculations Add Calculation e Delete Selected Calculations Delete All Calculations Enable Disable Calculation i Super Rises or
68. ght of the form enable you to plot any of the selected cycles provided there are values in the boxes Clicking on Plot All will sum the cycles which are already selected and plot the sum This is shown on the next page Naturally if the isolated cycles were each totally clean then you would expect that plotting the sum would exactly replicate the original three cycle data The plot on the next page allowing for the different relative heights of the two boxes is a reasonable representation of the original data with some loss of the fine detail Note the calculated sine wave sum is extrapolated into the future However there is no data past the point represented by 101 CHAPTER 5 the vertical line i e the last real data point to show how good an estimation of the future movement this is The closeness of the estimated path to what would be the real path can easily be demonstrated by using the data cut off This is accessed from the button whose icon is a pair of scissors When this is clicked the cursor can be moved over the plot to the point for which it is desired to cut off the data Plot while scanning 7 50 Go Stop 4 f 100 Y 150 Doppler Set Maximum Shift i o j 200 20 ET V 250 0 250 500 750 101 750 End Analysis 00 Results Exit Wa i ial 200 i gt When this whole scanning routine is repeated on the data which has been cut off in this way t
69. he first two letters in their name being Jo if Find by Name is enabled The position in the list and the security code are displayed The desired security can be selected by clicking on its name and by clicking the button marked Exit with Selection the security is then plotted 11 CHAPTER 1 Find Security Enter name or symbol SO Click on iternm to select it 156 JMJ E sit ith Selestin 157 JEI 158 IM Options f Find by name Find by symbol Charting a Security if Stocklist is Hidden There are two ways to do this The first two buttons in the top row of the screen showing right and left arrows will progress up or down the list of securities and plot each in turn whether this list is hidden or not The other way is to use the method just described of using the Find a Security menu In the Samples folder the first press of the forward arrow icon will show the plot below where the next security in the list has now been plotted File Securiti Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version 2 2 ef THAS NAA EE Tobace urities Brit Am o t t T T T T gt T T t T T T 0 N U SF WM AMAA dJ ASON DA FMAM dJd A A SOUNDU J FMAM Adad ASD ND ay 04 05 06 o7 4 gt 12 INTRODUCTION Before moving on to Chapter 2 it is useful to experiment for some time with the various changes that can be made to the screen view so that you are totally comf
70. he item Points Plotted at Start up Whichever number is chosen this number of points up to and including the last data point will be plotted To maintain the same width of plot in terms of numbers of points plotted but move to a different part of the plot history then move the scroll bar that is displayed at the bottom of the plot unless it has been hidden via the Graph item then select Buttons Stocklist Templist etc When all points are plotted the scroll bar fills its whole width and therefore cannot be moved f a fewer number of points are plotted then the scroll bar will allow more and more movement as the number of points plotted is decreased The effect of moving the scroll bar when a limited number of points are plotted is shown below 11 200 900 1000 1100 af gt Click to DECREASE minimum Y value by one interval 06 12 2007 10 51 48 CUSTOM GRAPHS In order to save time when scrolling the vertical axis is not re scaled Thus it is possible to move to a section where as shown above the data goes off the top or bottom of the scale The adjustment to bring it on scale is simple just put the mouse pointer within the plotting area of the chart and click the left hand button The price data are then brought on scale Scaling the Price Axis The vertical axis can be re scaled by using hotspots on the chart These are described in the next section They allow the upper scale value to be increased o
71. he lower panel Once you are satisfied with the details click on OK to exit this form Since you have made changes or entered totally new details it is necessary to check the format of the updating files before leaving the Parameters form Once everything is acceptable then click on the Save Format button to go back to the starting screen 146 UPDATING YOUR DATA FILES File Menu The File menu gives a drop down menu with many further options is Universal Updater Security Markets Market Parameters Updating UpdateLog Channalyze View Channalyze Current Folder s Securities View Another Folder s Securities Print Setup Print List Update Files to Select for Backup Send Selected Update Files to Backup Do NOT Add New Files to Work AutoSend Update Files to Backup after Updating Run Channalyze Exit Status 15 10 2008 11 23 The first two items will list the securities in either the current folder being used by Channalyze or in a folder which can be selected in the same way as in Channalyze The list of securities is displayed along with the latest few records as shown on the next page The Print Setup item allows the user to choose the printer and whether the output is in portrait or landscape format Selecting Print will print out the list of price data held in the price view List Updating Files to Send to Backup This allows the user to move updating files away from the folder where they a
72. he price records back in time for a stock split or scrip rights issue A typical scrip issue would be one that was 1 for 1 in which case the price level will be seen suddenly to halve when a plot is made The difficulty with stock splits is keeping track of these Usually the investor who is not holding this stock is totally unaware that there has been a split One way to keep an eye on these is to make a careful note of sudden changes in a stock price which become obvious when scanning through the securities However it is important not to jump to the conclusion that a sudden fall in price is due to a split It may well be real due to adverse 33 CHAPTER 2 comment in the press or the release of a profit warning for example The routine allows the user to do any one of four adjustments add subtract multiple or divide The user should select the record from which the adjustment should occur before using this routine The adjustment will include the selected record and all previous records back to the very first The form that is displayed is shown on the next page As you can see the user can opt for one of the four mathematical operations by clicking on the required option The factor that has to be applied is then entered into the factor box The top of the form reminds the user of the security which is being adjusted and also the selected date from which the adjustment will occur If you have the wrong security or the wrong ad
73. hen another plot is produced in which the calculated and actual future movement can be compared The distribution plot is shown on the next page Because there is slightly less data on which to perform the calculation then there is a difference around the group of peaks at 102 to 110 This is where the Allowable Variation box at the bottom of the plot comes into play This is the variation in the peak to peak or trough to trough distances over the last few sweeps of the estimated cycle which is allowed Any estimated cycle which exceeds this variation is not considered to be a correct estimation and is therefore left out of the bar plot The effect of reducing this allowable variation to 15 is shown in the upper plot on the next page 102 EXPERIMENT WITH SINE WAVES BB Cycle Distribution bel Sa GetCycle1 Get Cycle 2 Get Cycle 3 Get Cycle 4 Plot 1 Plot 2 iii 75 E Sum Red Sum Green Plot3 Piotg LoMed Divide at 25 1 Sum Blue Piot An Sine Wave 4171017 301 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 aod CC eee OK Close Data Allowable variation 25 4 peplot with New 2 Print Sine Wave 41 101 301 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 aoc CO _ Ee OK Close Data Allowable variation fis EE Replot with New Print Clicking on the Plot All button produces the chart shown on the next page with the point at which the data has been cut off shown by the vertical line at about point 137
74. ice scales Decrease max P Increase max gt Decrease min 51 CHAPTER 3 Hotspots using the right hand mouse button These hotspots are the plotting area itself and the time and price scales Y axis Color Y axis Font Stocklist Font Pricelist Font ONDJ FMAM J J SONDJFMAWMIVA SOUNDS FEMAM J JA SON DAF 05 06 Oo 08 Buttons Stocklist Templist etc Label with Dates Background Color Label with Numbers Data d Maxis Colors b Grids b axis Font Margins Points Restore Appearance as Shipped Undo Previous Rescale 52 Chapter 4 Calculations Clicking on the Calculations item in the menu bar will display the following drop down menu ile Securities Prices Gra alculations el Number of Calculations ye AY w N a A gt KI z a Add Calculation Be N E on Delete Calculation 600 British Airways Enable Disable Calculation McDonald s Corpo Super Rises or Falls Millard Probability Calculation Cycle Sums Experiment with Sine Waves Sn a a Note there are three calculations in this drop down list that can be accessed by one click Super Rises or Falls Millard Probability Calculation and Experiment with Sine Waves These calculations are temporary and their parameters are not stored The other calculations accessed via sub menus are stored in a list so as to be applied to each s
75. icking on OK Close The plot of the four chosen cycles which have been summed is shown below Because of the selection limit of four cycles this method is best used as a research tool as mentioned previously The AutoScan function will select many more stable cycles and add them 111 CHAPTER 6 together to give a much better forecast of the future movement of the underlying trend in the price movement Pa Channalyze mE File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help J Ney 2 Seas i r 42 5 Set Wavelength oi boa oi Single Wavelength Age nt Technolo 15 coy Nudge Step f1 Nudge Up Down M Plot while scanning Go Stop Doppler Set Maximum Shift l 20 a 02 FAJAODFAJAODFAJAODFAJAODFAJAODFAJAODFAJA 03 04 05 0 0 Point Num 499 Fri 05 12 2003 YVal 1 06969 09 12 2007 20 46 The Print button will allow the distribution chart to be copied to a printer for future reference Although mentioned in the previous chapter the other controls seen on the distribution plot are the Replot with New and Allowable Variation Increasing the allowable variation will display more cycles but there comes a point where their validity is in question as a predictor of future movement A value of 30 is the maximum that should be used In the present case a lower value than the 25 used will reduce the number of cycles shown
76. ickness and style can be selected by clicking on the required line itself or on the appropriate radio button alongside the line Once the OK button is clicked the previous Add Calculation form is re displayed Clicking on the OK button in this form allows 56 CALCULATIONS the calculation to proceed The result is then displayed graphically When averages are plotted with no lag the latest calculated point is plotted at the same point in time as the latest data point This can be seen in the first chart on the next page If however a centered average is chosen then the plot of the average is set back half of a span in time A centered average can be seen to be aligned more closely with the stock data than an average with no lag as shown in the lower screen shot on the next page Calculating an average is a crude way of smoothing the data by removing certain fluctuations from the data Any cycles present in the data with the same wavelength as the span of the average will be removed completely while cycles of other wavelengths are greatly reduced Thus to remove very short term cycles an average with span of say 15 days to 25 days would be appropriate Fal Channalyze KES File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version NRE Dol fad ARENE e ra n w T Q faz heat Ww ww so oO e a ug a ONDAFMAMJJASONDAEMAMJJASONDLEMAMJJAS
77. if it contained Channalyze format files so that any security can be selected and the two arrows which traverse the Stocklist are active Calculations present in the Calculations list are also carried out 20 Chapter 2 Securities and Prices When the Securities item in the menu bar is selected the following drop down menu is presented File Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help gt E Find a Security E a 3i Gr Alli ft tt tt ttt ttt tt Ht Ht HH HH ici od EEE ON Dt Row AO Ans ON PF wR A BO d oF A ww a 5 06 o7 08 Click to INCREASE maximum Y value by one interval 07 06 2008 08 12 We will go through these items one at a time assuming that we have moved from the Samples folder to one in which there are a large number of securities e g SP500 1 Finding a Security This item enables the user to find a security when the list in the left hand panel is long or perhaps not in alphabetical order The Find Security search box enables a search either on the name or symbol It is not necessary to put in the full name or symbol since a search on part of this will bring up a list of all securities matching the characters entered in the search box Once the detail has been entered clicking on the Find button will set the search going If a large number of securities are present in the Stocklist then the search may take several seconds Once completed a central box is displ
78. ion plot either by clicking on the Results button at the bottom of the cycle panel or on the minimized form at the bottom of the screen Then click on Get Cycle 2 and move the cursor to the next high peak which is at wavelength 142 The value 232 is displayed in the box alongside this button In this case unlike the cycle of wavelength 152 only this scan value produced this wavelength The distribution plot is shown below Pal Cycle Distribution Get Cycle 2 Get Cycle 3 Get Cycle 4 Plot 1 Plot 2 eae ia 75 Sum Red Sum Green 200 203 232 Plat 3 Plot 4 eae at 25 Sum Blue Plot AIl Agilent Technolo e ene nl OK Close Data Wavelength 142 Persistence 11 Allowable variation 25 1 Replot with New z Print 109 CHAPTER 6 Lex Fa Channalyze File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help Single Wavelength Set Wavelength 5 co Nudge Step m Nudge Up Down MV Plot while scanning Go Stop Doppler Set Maximum Shift 1s COR wo ee Hato er er ea ier 20 a F JAODFAJAODFAJAODFAJAODFAJAODFAJAODFAJA 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Scans 232 Wavelength 142 FAJAODFAJAODFAJSAODFAJAODFAJSAODFAJAODFAIJAA 02 06 07 08 Click to INCREASE minimum Y value by one interval 09 12 2007 20 40 The plot of this cycle is again displayed by closing or minimizing the distribution plot While broadly similar to the cycle of wavelength 152 this cycle appears
79. ious fields held in each line This of course makes the task of specifying the fields simple Note 2 the data can be held in the file in two ways the most recent value first or the oldest value first as shown in the above example for BBI 4 Line and field separators The lines in a file are separated by one or both of the characters LF line feed and CR carriage return Channalyze automatically determines which of these combinations is being used in the file so the user need not be concerned about this The same applies to the field separators In a csv file the separators are obviously commas but the tab character is also used in some files Channalyze determines which is in use A value must be set for each of the four boxes on the right of the form In case of difficulty there is a How button for each of these explaining exactly how the box should be completed 5 Set fields In the Set Fields box the order of the characters used represents the order in which they are found in each line of the file One character represents one field as follows T Ticker N Name D Date 16 INTRODUCTION P Periodicity i e a D W M or I will be held in each line O Open H High L Low C Close V Volume Open Interest X a field which will be ignored Note you must enter an X where a field is present in the file but is not required 6 Set date format While the above list of fields specifie
80. ir regularity comes and goes over a period of time The importance of using only those cycles which currently are going through a stable regular phase is stressed later in the chapter on cycle analysis Chapter 6 The program can select such stable cycles and sum them automatically to provide a good indication of future price trends The user can override this automatic summation and sum chosen stable cycles Data Format The prime data format for Channalyze is the Metastock format For those investors whose current software uses a different format but which can output data in an ASCII text form the ChannalyzeUpdater a separate module supplied with Channalyze can import this ASCII data into the Metastock format All Metastock files whether native or imported can be updated by this updater Many data vendors will supply historical data in this format Channalyze can also read ASCII The individual items within these files can be held in a wide variety of ways Thus it is necessary to specify the way in which the data is held in these files if they are to be read correctly Text files can have various file extensions the characters following the dot in the file name such as csv comma separated values and txt The file extension has to be specified before the required files can be located by the file browser The way in which Channalyze can be set up for reading such text files is discussed at the end of this chapter CHAPTER 1
81. isplay units for a security are together known as the security properties Selecting Security Properties from the drop down menu will as explained earlier show the same form as used for a new security but with the current security information shown All you need to do to change the name symbol or display units is to over type the new ones before selecting OK to store the new information The OK MORE button is greyed out since it is not appropriate when changing this one security Obviously clicking on Cancel will cancel the operation Note you will not be allowed to change the periodicity of the security since this would mean the stored price data being invalid 29 CHAPTER 2 The Prices Menu Selecting this item will show a drop down menu Chan nalyze File Securities ities Graph Calculations ChansfCycles Repo View All Records Edit a Record Exelon Corporati Add a Record Esson Mobil Corp Family Dollar St Delete Some Records Fannie Mae Federated Depart FedEx Corporatiq Sort Records First Data Corpo FirstEnergy Corp Remove Duplicates Fluor Corporatio Ford Motor Compe Forest Laborator Fortune Brands Franklin Resoure Freeport MchoR an Gannett Co lac Gap The Ine General Dynamics ee _ _ Sos Seeesaed sees aeesees Adjust For Splits jee eee eae gw ee He Hee eH Remove Zeros Viewing All Records Only the last 50 price records if they exist are shown in the prices
82. ity cccccccceeeceeeeseeeeseeseeeaeeees 27 TAG rices Menu ap tsccee tates aree ERR 30 Viewing All RECOIS ccceccssceseeececceeeeeeeeseeeeeeeeeeees 30 ACGING a RECOM see ivenuioiievedaudetucdtepeivdnetwbeiweveboccedvesoreties 30 CIMINO CCONOS icena a a Geechee 31 SOMMMNG RECOS enaren eea 32 REMOVING ZOOS easar E ee sins 33 Removing Duplicates cccccsccseeeceeeceeeseeeseeeseeeaes 33 Deleting SOME RECOIMCS ccccccceeeeceeeseeseeeeeeseneeaeees 33 AXGIUSTING TOF SONS rinena tees oat a e a 33 CHAPTER 3 Custom Graphs cccceeeeeeeeeeeeeees 35 BaCKOrOUNIG Colofn A 36 CONTENTS PICIKINEAS Mhacesiut ante aneacetere tesa atah thes eth ecd leet as toae 39 Line TRICKNESS ccccccccecccseecseeceeeceeeceeesaeeseueseeseesaes 41 Data Color Cut off CONOR vase rice ectic ati ndieeleekeeetetediee 41 Cutof Data COLON sxsetiees neces echaneascraa esate teesondnt aed 42 RNS aE Waaae enol monnare cn sbasuuas dose cuasecesuutaseenc coos 42 SWIC 222i Gee eG ene 42 ONO acca residences part seid Seccieren NE 43 IWIAROING aras E 43 Restoring Appearance as Shipped ccccceeeeeeeeees 44 Undoing Previous ReSCAIe cccccecceceeeeeeeeeseeneeeees 44 Labeling Colors and Font cccccscceseeeeeeeeeseeeseeees 44 Changmo Me YAX Sesia tue dasinn Me caeedtnatiueale ls 45 Changing the X AXIS ccccccsscccseeceeeeceeeeseeeeeesaeeeeeees 46 Changing NE Sc
83. ity list number These three operations can be carried out on any securities shown in this Temporary List Adding Securities to the Temporary List This is simply done by clicking on the required security in the left hand panel Its name will be duplicated in the temporary panel A security can be removed from the list in the Temporary list by clicking on its name You cannot add a security name to the list if it is already present in the Temporary List A message to that effect will be given The list can be closed without any action being taken by clicking once again on the Security Temporary List item in the Screen drop down menu The check mark will be removed and the panel will revert to its previous usage with either a chart or price records being displayed As mentioned above the purpose of the Temporary List is to provide a list of securities that can be deleted from the current 24 SECURITIES AND PRICES folder or copied or moved to another folder These operations can be delayed until the user is sure that the list is correct Shown below is the Temporary List with several securities names shown in it ready for deletion moving or copying pal Channalyze DE File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help N F PN te E22 2 Bl PE ee RZA A Kellogg Company KeyCorp KeySpan Corporat Kimberly Clark C Kiil 8606 75 9182 700 159 75 735 8803
84. justment date then clicking on Cancel will abort the process and close the form If you click on OK to Apply then the data will be adjusted and the user informed when it is complete ea Adjust for splits Adobe Systems In Adjust back from 07 09 2004 Operation f Add a constant amount f Subtract a constant amount f Multiply by a factor f Divide by a Factor Factor E OK Apply Cancel 34 Chapter 3 Custom Graphs In this chapter we will show how you can change the appearance of a chart to suit your requirements F4 Channalyze mE Eile Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help Agilent Technolo Agilent Technolo Brit Am Tobacco i British Airways Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo 20 700 800 300 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 4 Point Num 1004 Fri 11 11 2005 0 32 77 H 33 03 L 32 7 C 32 93 Y value at Cursor 32 45577 05 12 2007 12 43 The chart above shows the closing prices of the security as a line chart but we can plot the data as bars change colors line styles make a line invisible and so on The drop down menu from the Graph item on the menu bar looks like that on the next page In addition as discussed later in this chapter many items can be changed by clicking on a hot spot with left or right mouse buttons Note the Graph menu can also be shown by right clicking with the mouse on the plot 35 CHAPTER 3 ile Securitie es
85. l and is displayed on the left of the screen as shown on the next page There are three parts to the panel The top section allows a single wavelength to be chosen and its value changed either by entering it directly into the box with the up down arrows or by nudging up or down from its current value It is now plotted in the lower box on the chart until the Go button is clicked 93 CHAPTER 5 E Chan ihize File Securities Prici Screen Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Flag NextFlag PreviousFlag Reports Updater er PT Te el REDE Single Wavelength Set Wavelength a __80_ Nudge Step 7 Nudge Up Down Ee In steps of d Good Count f0 Curren t wave p 125 JV Plot whil g w Go Stop A Doppler Set Maximum Shift j rai pen 20 i m sg End Analysis Results Exit af sD 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 Single Wavelength Set Wavelength H Go Nudge Step Nudge Up Down lf 41 is entered as the cycle wavelength and the Go button clicked the chart on the next page is produced with the cycle shown in the lower panel shown over Quite clearly most of the effect of the 201 point cycle has been removed making it easy to determine the wavelength of the output by simple taking the distance from peak to peak This will be seen to be 41 points 94 EXPERIMENT WITH SINE WAVES pal Channalyze DES Securities Pri i
86. l tf Tit t gona Agile Agilent Technolo Sine Wave 41 101 British Airways Lloyds TSB re McDonald s Corpo Brit Am Tobac 50 M 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 4 Note the data is calculated so as to simulate price data For this reason the Plot Data as item should be used to plot data as lines rather than OpHiLoCl 92 EXPERIMENT WITH SINE WAVES The screen picture on the previous page shows two sine waves one of wavelength 50 with amplitude 50 and one of wavelength 201 with amplitude 100 The third having zero amplitude is left out of the calculation Since the data is artificial the timescale is what we make it but we can take it to be in days so as to compare the results with real daily stock data We can take the amplitude to be in dollars pounds or whatever currency our usual stocks are denominated in In the current series of plots no particular currency is attached to the vertical axis ile Securities Prices Scree od fa Restore Original Channel co British Airways Show Cycle Panel Lloyds TSB EER McDonald s Corpo as oats i Autoscan Cycles f Specify Folders to be Scanned Show Cycles Sums For Each Plot Show Cycle Distribution for Each Plot f J Now to see the effect of scanning this combined waveform we can move to the Cycle Panel This is accessed from the Chans Cycles drop down menu by selecting Show Cycle Pane
87. lder then move to that folder via the File menu by choosing Open Folder If you wish to create a new folder in which to add securities then click on the final item on the Securities drop down menu Make a New Security Folder Note if you are updating data from a data vendor by using the Updater Chapter 7 then new securities that appear in the data stream will be added automatically to the Work1 folder The name Work is one which was used in Microvest and CCS so its use is continued here for compatibility with these earlier programs However only the symbols will be stored so it will still be necessary to change the name from a blank to the correct name to match with the stored symbol You are then presented with the New Security form shown over 2 CHAPTER 2 Bits Security E ecurit symbol SYMBOLI Periodicity Day Display Units OO 0 decimal 16 1 16 32 1 32 etc First Date 14 10 2007 Last Date 14 10 2007 OK MORE ae The various fields will be filled in as shown These data would be saved as shown but obviously you will want to use your own name etc for the security Click on the box which contains the name Security1 and enter the name you wish to use if you are stuck use a name such as Test1 or similar You will need to use the delete key to remove the current name a character at a time The Symbol is the code by which the security will be updated from a data source such as an ASCII file vi
88. le Calculations Chans Cycles Flag NextFl File Securities Prices Screen Graph Calcul NextFlag Previous Flag Reports Updater Version N sr S Single Wavelength Sine Wave 41 1 01 TE la m J Jl I ME PPE GE LE es yo j p 10 1 1200 1 1350 1550 1600 WMA MAE a 1250 1500 4 From this property of highlighting the cycle of the same wavelength as that entered into the box it would be expected that entering 201 will remove the 41 point cycle leaving the 201 point cycle visible This is indeed the case as shown in the resulting chart on the next page It can be seen that we now have a method of focussing on just one cycle by applying the same wavelength in the calculation However it will be seen that the isolated 41 point cycle is not as clean an output as the 201 point cycle with some interference still present from the higher wavelength cycle From this we can deduce that cycles with a wavelength greater than the current value entered as the wavelength are not removed as effectively as those of alower wavelength Even so the ability to isolate the individual cycles is a major step forward in the analysis of complex mixtures of cycles 95 CHAPTER 5 Fal Channalyze DES File Securities Prices Screen Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Flag NextFlag PreviousFlag Reports Updater Yersion Set Wavelength 250 pen f I Nudge Step mm A A 200 Nudge Up Down L475 Scan
89. le Extension Use up to 8 characters cs Use A z 0 5 only OF Cancel Help Note you are not allowed to enter a dot Thus for csv files you would enter csv and not csv 2 Navigate to the text folder containing these files This is done by selecting Open Text Folder from the File menu Once the required folder is displayed by clicking on its name in the left hand panel its name will appear in the box at the top right as shown above The button marked Show Securities in Above Folder must then be clicked Select Folders amp Securities EODData CAEODData asx First 3 ASX O First i ities j O JanFeb O Lasti O Indices gt LSE NASDAQ NYSE TORONTO O ExeShieldD ownload O f2b7f7a a4be2a30ec O Family Photos FMPDevelopment FMPFigures O FMPlcons z gt 14 INTRODUCTION This will result in a list of the files with the designated extension being shown in the right hand list box If these are the right files then click on OK to close the form clicking on the close icon will close the form with no action being taken If OK has been clicked then the form will close and the same list of text files will be shown in the Stocklist panel of the main screen A box will be displayed to remind you that the text file format has not yet been set Channalyze Click on OK and proceed to the next step Note if you try to plot a security at this point by clicking on its name in
90. les Reports Version Help i i i i i i i i i 4 1390 1400 1410 1420 1430 1440 1450 1460 1470 1480 1490 1500 1510 41 MA Difference 41 MA Difference i i i i i i i i i i 3 1390 1400 1410 1420 1430 1440 1450 1460 1470 1480 1490 1500 1510 Click to DECREASE minimum Y value by one interval 07 12 2007 07 25 As shown in the lower picture the relative height of the two boxes can be changed by clicking the left hand mouse button and keeping it pressed when the cursor is over the dividing bar between the two boxes In this position the cursor changes into a double headed vertical arrow The bar can then be moved up or 63 CHAPTER 4 down as required The number of points plotted has also been reduced by selecting Points from the Graph menu MACD Moving Average Convergence Divergence This indicator was introduced in the 1960s by Gerald Appel who recommended the periods of 12 and 26 days for the periods used in calculating the Exponential Moving Averages EMAs The formula for the MACD is MACD EMA 12 EMA 26 A signal line or trigger line is then formed by smoothing this with a further EMA The standard period for this is 9 days Signal EMA 9 of MACD The signals are used as follows Buy when the MACD line moves above the signal line Sell when the MACD line drops below the signal line The trader should never rely on this indicator by itself but use other indicators as confirmation When this calc
91. les menu as discussed later in this chapter The results of clicking on Sum Red Sum Green and Sum Blue with the current boundaries of 25 and 75 are shown on the next two pages 114 CYCLES IN MARKET DATA Pa Channalyze meS File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help r Single Wavelength Set Wavelength hs com Nudge Step m Nudge Up Down Scan Wavelengths Start End 15 a 350 im Insteps of fi a Good Count jor Current wave 350 JV Plot while scanning Stop 04 05 06 07 08 Sum of all cycles from 15 to 25 Doppler Set Maximum Shift gt 5 fo 3 2 End Analysis 1 Reesuts Exit o A 2 4 4 5 GCNEaJFMAMS JASONE JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASOND J F 04 05 06 07 08 sf E Click to INCREASE maximum Y value by one interval 10 12 2007 05 43 Sum Red wavelengths from 15 to 25 P Channalyze Mex File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help r Single Wavelength 425 Set Wavelength 40 fis Go a mas 37 5 Nudge Step j H 35 Nudge Up Down e 30 r Scan Wavelengths 275 Start End 5 fis f H al al 225 In steps of fi m 20 Good Count jor Curent wave 350 04 05 06 07 08 Sum of all cycles from 26 to 75 20 IV Plot while scanning hort oa i toro Go Stop m Doppler Set Maximum Shift foo 4 End Analysi
92. ling longer filled bodies with no upper shadows 3 Trend gets weaker Rising trend bodies get smaller lower shadows begin to form Falling trend bodies get smaller upper shadows begin to form 4 Consolidation Rising trend smaller bodies with both upper and lower shadows Falling trend smaller bodies with both upper and lower shadows 5 Change of trend not too reliable Rising trend very small body with long upper and lower shadows Falling trend very small body with long upper and lower shadows 40 CUSTOM GRAPHS As a visual aid this plot gives a much clearer view of trends because they are marked by sequences of white or black bodies Line Thickness The final item on the Data menu will allow one of three thicknesses for the data plot to be selected This will only apply when the data is plotted as lines When selected a box is presented from which the desired line thickness can be chosen E Line Thickness and Style Sele Thickness As shown there are two columns The Style column is not active when choosing the line thickness since it is only used for the choosing the style of the grid lines The required thickness is chosen either by clicking on the radio button or the line itself in the Thickness column Data Color Cut Off Color These are used to change the color of the plotted data When either is chosen a box is displayed from which the required color can be chosen 41 CHAPTER 3 The data will be
93. m divider is set at a value of 35 and the Medium High divider at 63 the consequent Sum Red plot is shown at the bottom of the next page and the Sum Blue plot at the top of the page after that The above shows that this sum of medium wavelengths is sufficiently stable with only minor changes in wavelength to be a useful predictor of future movement showing a fall at present but a rise in the near future This principle of summing low medium and high wavelength cycles can be applied in the AutoScan technique which is described in the next section 116 CYCLES IN MARKET DATA Fa Cycle Distribution Get Cycle 1 Lloyds TSB Nw F amp F Oo Ds wo Ww 5 i 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 OK Close Data W avelength 313 Persistence 0 Allowable variation 25 Replot with New z Print Distribution plot for Lloyds TSB Fy Channalyze DER File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help r Single Wavelength Set Wavelength fis 4 Go Nudge Step f Nudge Up Down r Scan Wavelengths Start End In steps of iz Good Count 5 Curent wave 350 V Plot while scanning Go Stop r Doppler Set Maximum Shift i i f 04 2 ONDJFMAMJ JASONDJFMAMJ JASONDIFMAMJJASOND J F 05 06 07 08 Sum of all cycles from 15 to 35 End Analysis 75 Ea a ESE e Cane Ean nes des i ar se al oe ee ee ee ONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJA
94. nd a form shown in the middle of the screen which displays the folder being updated the updating file being used and the date for which the updating is occurring Once the process has completed a message to that effect will be briefly shown 149 CHAPTER 7 E Universal Updater Updating IC ANYSETesthsp500 1 source File CAEODD atai NYSEMNYS E_ 20071026 tet For Date 26 1 0 2007 Number Updated 8 Running Channalyze from the Updater To exit from the program back to the Channalyze module simply click on the Channalyze item in the menu bar or click on the button with the Channalyze icon or use the drop down File menu 150
95. ne interval 07 12 2007 08 10 Sometimes there is a small blip at the junction between the actual and extrapolated channel boundaries which is a function of the curve fitting routine and is of no importance An example of another stock in which the 201 day channel which gives a warning of a change in trend is shown for British Airways This example is shown because of the sharp downwards hook in the extrapolated part This is the result of the curve fitting routine on the last few points which were starting to curve downwards However in a case like this the downward hook becomes greatly exaggerated This will become obvious once some weeks or months have gone by It will be seen from an examination of the channels produced in a variety of stocks that the turning points in the channels are more or less symmetrical There is of course the possibility that the channel has changed direction once again and is now rising again This possibility can be examined more clearly if an expanded portion of the chart is used by using the button with the magnifying glass 13 CHAPTER 4 Fal Channalyze DES File Securities Prices Screen Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Flag NextFlag PreviousFlag Reports Updater ersion British Airways Brit m Tobacco British Airways Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo inet tometer atone n a a aala Cael ook cle gel at aan tae Ta tally aeai alasin paella aadar aly ea miosan o aca halal fant a
96. of movements outside of the probability bands are required Number of trials A form is presented into which the number of trials can be entered The larger the number of trials the more meaningful are the results As shown 500 trials have been entered but the maximum of 2000 should be used E Specify number of trials Enter number 50 to 2000 0 Hote 1000 trials 250 days forward takes about 60 secs on a 500 MHz machine OF Cancel Help 86 CALCULATIONS Days forward A form is presented into which the number of days forward over which the probability of movement outside of the probability bands is to be calculated E Specify number of days forward Enter number 40 to 500 0 Hote 1000 trials 250 days forward takes about 60 secs on a 500 HHz machine Cancel Help Band colors Before the plot can be displayed it is vital that the band colors are set If this is not done the colors will be assumed to be black resulting in a plot which is undecipherable The drop down menu to set these colors is shown below Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help Number of Calculations Add Calculation gt Delete Selected Calculations Delete All Calculations See ee ee EOE AA eee Le ee ee EEE ERE ee ER A Se eee en LEA eee O Enable Disable Calculation Super Rises or Falls Rapes Po KKP E nO U aaie etl oe E RE REENA j E Millard Probability Calculation gt Number of Trials
97. on chart on next page 76 CALCULATIONS Paj Channalyze DES File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help Agilent Technolo Brit Am Tobacco British Airways Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo British Airways JAS OND JFMAMJJASOND J FMAM J JASON DJS FMAM JS J 05 06 07 08 4 8363 9182 700 5181 6000 3872 07 12 2007 08 52 Channel Bend Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Yersion Help Current Channel por Neue I Select Channel 600 End Bending e a a Restore Original a ab E eg oa or a a a a a a Ge ll a a oe a a a a a urbe a E Use mouse to drag A es ae ee E ee E E A i r E AL eR blobs vertically up or down JAS OND J FMAM J J AS OND J FMAM J JASONDJ FMAM JJ 06 07 08 05 4 gt Blob 2 07 12 2007 08 48 Once you are satisfied with the new position for the channel then click on End Bending and the blobs will disappear as shown on the next page If necessary you can click on Restore Original to undo the bending you have carried out Tf CHAPTER 4 Fal aiies DES File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Repor AKE a McDonald s Corpo A M J J A 5 0 N D J F M A M J J A S U N D J F 06 07 08 4 Click to INCREASE maximum Y value by one interval 07 12 2007 08 54 Changing Channel Depth The default value of 3 5 for the allowable
98. only one important task to perform and that is to check on an updating file to confirm it has been allocated the correct format of field order date format and so on To do this click on the Check Format item in the menu bar The following drop down menu is shown r T Parameters for London TE Pre set Formats Custom Format Check Format Folders List Updating Files Current format Name EOD Metastock8 View File Contents Field order TPDOHLCY Show Field Order Date format YYYYMMDD Date location within file Extension TT Updating files stored in ENEDDD MANE Number of target folders 4 Save Format In order to check a file the correct sequence must be followed selecting items in the drop down box in the order in which they occur Clicking on List Updating Files will show a list of the files present in the folder which holds these files as shown on the next page One of these files must be selected by clicking on its name before moving to the next stage Once selected you can then click on the View File Contents item in the Check Format drop down menu This will show lines present in the file up to a maximum of 500 lines These two types of list are shown on the next page 140 UPDATING YOUR DATA FILES Parameters for Landon Pre set Formats Custom Format Check Format Folders ASCII files Current format LSE 20071022 tet LSE_ 20071023 txt Name EOD Metastock LSE 2007102
99. ortable with the various operations Reading ASCII Text files As mentioned at the beginning of this chapter text files containing stock data such as the Date along with Open High Low Close and Volume values can hold this data in a variety of ways It is necessary to specify exactly how these data are held if the file is to be read correctly Once these parameters are set they are stored in a file CDetails dta in the particular folder holding the text files This means that a folder can hold text files with a different format from those held in another folder However it is vital that any one folder only contains files with the same format The first time a folder is visited then the parameters have to be set There is a particular sequence 1 10 which must be followed to set up a folder containing text files for the first time Once set there is no need to repeat this procedure unless folders or file formats change 1 Specify file extension If the file extension is not set then navigating to a text folder will appear to show an empty folder Once it is set then a list of files with this extension will be displayed The item Text Files Extension in the File drop down menu will show whether or not the extension has been set If it hasnt then the item is displayed as Text Files Extension not set If it has been set then this item is displayed as Text Files Extension csv for example 13 CHAPTER 1 eal Set Fi
100. ots which will react to a left hand mouse click can easily be recognized by the fact that the cursor will show different versions of itself when in these areas A small up or down arrow is displayed when the cursor is in the right hand or left hand Y axes Clicking on the left hand button when an up arrow is shown will increase the scale by one scale division Clicking on the left hand button when a down arrow is shown will decrease the scale by one scale division When the cursor is in the X axis it shows a representation of a set of tick marks Clicking on the left hand button in this position will switch between dates and numbers on the X axis The Screen Hotspots are shown on the next page Status Bar At the very bottom of the plot is an area called a status bar The right hand two panels will show the current date and time while the left hand panel shows the values at the point in time represented by the current position of the cursor When the mouse cursor is in one of the rescaling hotspots the action required to rescale is displayed in the status bar If it is in the x axis label area then the fact that the labeling will switch between numbers and dates will be shown The actions shown for the right hand vertical axis are also replicated when the cursor is in a similar position in the left hand axis 50 CUSTOM GRAPHS Hotspots using the left hand mouse button These hotspots are the plotting area itself and the time and pr
101. overlap can be changed by selecting the item Change Channel Depth from the Chans Cycles drop down menu A form is displayed next page which enables the user to increase or decrease the depth The current depth is shown along with the current overlap percentage The idea is to minimize the number or extent of penetrations of the channel boundaries while keeping as many points as possible where the data touches the boundaries The result of doing this is shown on the next page It is allowable to have penetrations at points where the channel changes direction because such penetrations represent the overshoots that are the norm in such turning points 78 CALCULATIONS 29 98073 Decrease New Overlap gt Accept New Value Channalyze DES File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Yersion Help Agilent Technolo British Airways 625 Brit m Tobacco British Airway i i i i i i i i i i i i i i Lloyds 15B sec meal ana a ieee oa teat eaae eeke r aaah e E een l 600 McDonald s Corpo i i i i i i 575 550 500 475 450 425 400 375 350 300 275 4 Click to INCREASE maximum Y value by one interval 07 12 2007 08 59 The depth has been decreased so that the recent low point in the data appears to be close to the lower boundary This is a preliminary view of the channel constructed so as to determine if the next low point to occur in the near
102. panel when a security is first selected This is to save the time that would be needed to read in a large number of records for a security that holds data for many years If the user wishes to see all of the price records then clicking on View All Records will carry out this operation With a long data history this would take some time You can scan up and down the list of price records with the slider control on the right of the panel Adding a Record Selecting this item allows you to enter data for a particular The entry form is shown on the next page The date field will show today s date in either DD MM YYYY or MM DD YYYY format while all data fields are shown as zero As with the securities form you can move downwards through the data fields and back to the date box by pressing the Tab key A specific box can also be chosen by using the mouse 30 SECURITIES AND PRICES L Price Properties Sel Date 19 10 2007 Oper High Low Close volume Opentrit Once you have filled in the data clicking on OK will obviously store the record while clicking on Cancel will cancel the operation If OK has been clicked the prices panel will show this new data Editing Records To enable records to be edited it is necessary to have all records present for viewing If all records are not being shown then click on View All Prices before proceeding If a graph is displayed rather than price records then clicking on the Graph
103. pdater is given the correct format for the date with Xs if necessary if it is to be interpreted correctly In some files the date is part of the filename in others it is in every line of the file contents 132 UPDATING YOUR DATA FILES Financial Express Files From this option you will then be given a menu from which you can then select from D files these have the extension m and field order TOCHLYV The date is contained in the filename and is of the form XYYMMDD Channalyze CCS Metastock Microvest files these have the extension DMS and field order TPDOHLCV The date is in every line and is of the form YYMMDD M files these have the extension m and the field order TC The date is in the filename and is of the form XYYMMDD ADVN Files These have the extension met and the filed order is TPDOHLCV The date is in every line and is of the form YYMMDD EOD Data files These eight items shown in the drop down menu have the following formats Advanced Get ASCII These have the extension txt and field order TPDOHLCV The date is contained in each line in the file and is of the form YYMMDD Ezycharts These have the extension txt and field order TDOHLCV The date is contained in each line in the file and is of the form YYMMDD Metastock ASCII 7 Column These have the extension txt and field order TDOHLCV The date is contained in each line in the file and is of the form YYYYMMDD 133 CHAPTER 7
104. ppear to be similar to a simple average see chart on next page However there are subtle differences in particular a greater emphasis on certain cycles depending upon which span has been chosen Triangularly weighted centered averages are to be preferred in any study of cycles in market data 59 CHAPTER 4 Double Average In this case two averages are applied Once the first average has been calculated the second average is applied to this calculated data The second average smooths out any fluctuations due to short term movements which have not been removed by the first average The input box for a double average using periods of 41 and 75 point is shown along with the plotted average itself Double Average Seles Double Average Properties Period 1 4 Oo Period 2 75 f No lag e Centered Cancel Fy Channalyze KES File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Yersion Help A S PT e221 eal ee 2 McDonald s C Am Tob Agilent Technolo orpo Brit m Tobacco British Airways E OUUU Co ite cr 56 Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo ie ec et ae et se ee ee 0s eee ese tee ee ets le 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 4 Point Num 1275 Mon 27 11 2006 0 42 H 42 07 L 41 05 C 41 1 Y value at Cursor 44 39088 07 12 2007 07 00 60 CALCULATIONS Linearly Weighted and Exponential Averages These averages put
105. r 29 02497 04 12 2007 09 22 Changing the Screen View There is considerable flexibility in what can be displayed on the screen The panel with the list of securities can be hidden or displayed the graph can be replaced by prices and the toolbar buttons can be switched between large and small buttons or indeed no button at all The Statusbar at the foot of the screen T CHAPTER 1 which displays information as the cursor is moved over the chart can also be hidden If required therefore the graph itself can be made to cover almost the whole screen for maximum detail to be examined Clicking on the Graph item in the menu bar displays a drop down menu which provides access to the items which change what is shown on the screen r E Channalyze a es mamy File Securities Prices Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help nce PZ Neeo05 gt i i i i i i i i i i i i en Teco Background Color Brit m Tobacco Data i British Airways 40 Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo 39 ttt tt tt WOA MD 2 aes Se Bo Bk F Meck Woo al A Ss BO be ao oN am AP me SO ON OF 05 06 o7 o8 E i When the Buttons Stocklist Templist etc item is selected a box is displayed with a number of options in the form of tick boxes INTRODUCTION Wo Screen View Main ea ea Hide Statusbar f Show Stock Prices Hide Buttons f Show Temporary List
106. r decreased by one scale division and the lower scale value to be increased or decreased by one division Only six successive increases or decreases can be carried out since this would lead to a chart that could not readily be interpreted Plotting in One Box or Two Usually any plots which use an entirely different scale such as Millard Cycles Average Difference etc will be plotted in a separate lower box The height of this box can be adjusted by dragging the center bar between the upper and lower box by means of the mouse Same box calculations such as channels and moving averages will be overlaid on the correct box In the case of Cycle Sum accessed via the Chans Cycles menu an option is given to plot this sum in a separate box or overlay it on the main plot Screen Hotspots There are ten of these one of which as described above is the whole plotting area The result of clicking a mouse button depends on whether the left or right hand button has been pressed Right hand Mouse Button Clicking with the right hand button has already been discussed and allows you to change the labeling of the X axis the Y axis the Stocklist panel and the Prices panel 49 CHAPTER 3 Clicking on the graph itself brings up the Graph menu the sub items of which were discussed at the beginning of this chapter Left hand Mouse Button Clicking on the whole plotting area brings the whole of the data on scale The other hot sp
107. rapolating an isolated cycle into the future is subject to a certain amount of error Cycles in stock market data are subject to fluctuations in wavelength amplitude and phase as will become apparent when real examples are analyzed As well as the Cycle Panel which we explored in the last chapter we also have the capability of auto scanning all the securities in a folder and can store the names of the folders which we wish to be scanned From such an AutoScan we can view two outcomes Firstly there is the distribution of cycles in terms of wavelength and persistence for each cycle that is present and secondly we can do an automatic summation of all stable cycles that are present in the scan data for each security Before moving to the AutoScan methods it is helpful to use the Cycle Panel to investigate some securities in order to get some feel for what can be achieved with real stock market data as opposed to mixtures of artificially generated sine waves The chart of Agilent Technology shown on the next page is a good candidate for the study of cycles because there appear to be four waves with the distance between peaks getting smaller as we move from the past to the present The chart is made full screen by using the Buttons Stocklist Templist etc from the Graph menu to hide the Stocklist With a chart on the screen select Show Cycle Panel from the Chans Cycles menu The scan start and end points should still be in their default v
108. re stored to a backup folder If this is not done periodically then a long list of files will be presented from which to select those required to use in the current updating process 147 CHAPTER 7 Ej Universal Updater File Security Markets Market Parameters Updating Update Log Channalyze Date Open High Low Close Volume Openin Alliance amp Leice 08 10 2007 2152474 Anglo American 05 10 2007 3928032 Antofagasta 04 1 0 2007 4221 957 03 10 2007 3180187 02 10 2007 5127972 i 01 10 2007 2478983 Aviva 28 09 2007 2274597 B Sky B 27 09 2007 3690237 Bae Systems 26 09 2007 4912248 Barclays Bank 25 09 2007 3756751 B arrat D evs 24 09 2007 31 86433 21 09 2007 4344567 BG Group 20 09 2007 7652837 Associated Britis Astra Zeneca oococcecceccecccecececo 28 10 2007 Ej Universal Updater Markets Market Parameters Updating Update Log Channalyze ASCII fle LSE txt LSE_20071010 txt LSE_20071011 txt LSE_20071012 txt LSE_20071015 txt LSE_20071015 _1 txt LSE_20071016 txt LSE_20071017 txt LSE_20071018 txt LSE_20071019 txt LSE_ 20071022 txt LSE_20071023 txt LSE_ 20071024 txt 28 10 2007 This folder has the name DownloadBackup and is a sub folder of the Channalyze program folder Once files have been selected by clicking on them they can be sent to the backup folder by clicking on the Send selected Update files to backup item Note 1 that a block of files can be selected by clicking on the first
109. rea will be blank and a box will appear informing you that the previous default folder is no longer current In subsequent sessions the first security in the folder which was used in the previous session will be plotted INTRODUCTION Channalyze To navigate to the Samples folder select File from the main menu bar and then click on Open Channalyze Folder in the drop down menu as shown below L Chan nalyze wi Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles RP Open Channalyze Folder Open Text Folder Text Files Extension C5 Set Text Files Format Printer Setup Print Exit Channalyze This will bring up the Browser from which any folder in your computer can be selected The Channalyze folder is itself a sub folder of the Program Files folder CHAPTER 1 Select Folders amp Securities E Fa ADL Companion F C Program Files Channalyze ArcSoft AskPBar Show Securities in Above Folder Audacity Auran Canon CCSPrograms OCR Citeknet Classic PhoneTc Common Files O ComPlus Applica CONEXANT Corel CuteFTP CyberLink gt Cancel To see which securities are held in any folder click on the button Show Securities in Above Folder Since there are no Metastock files in the Channalyze Program folder nor are you allowed to create any in this folder clicking on this button at this time will bring up the line No data files present in the
110. right hand panel Clicking on the alongside the folder for Channalyze will show all the sub folders as shown below jr Select Folders amp Securities Audacity C Program Files Channalyze S amples Auran Canon CCSPrograms 3 6 Channalyze Agilent Technolo O DownloadBe abhi Tobacco ritish Airways Dustbin 5 Lloyds TSB O FTSE100 McDonald s Corpo O FTSE100W i MID250 ES MID250w O Samples i S P500 1 i SP500 2 G sp500 3 Citeknet Cancel INTRODUCTION Click on the Samples folder and the full name will be shown in the top right hand panel To see which securities are held in this folder click on the button Show Securities in Above Folder The five securities are shown as a list below this button as shown above Clicking on the OK button will produce a chart of Agilent Technology with a list of the securities in this folder shown in the left hand panel We will discuss in the next chapter how to change the appearance of the chart by changing fonts colors etc For the moment note that as the mouse is moved over the chart numerical information is displayed in the status bar at the bottom of the screen File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version h Calculati hans Cycles Re Versi 2 2 2 8 AE eee 2 Agilent Technolo 20 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 Ki Point Num 993 Thur 27 10 2005 0 30 8 H 30 94 L 30 52 C 30 57 Y value at Curso
111. rom the Chans Cycles item in the menu bar by clicking on Adjust Channel Restore Original Channel EAE Reports Version Help Adjust Channel N A p gt i MRR 2 Change Channel Depth Soe cas ee ish it Agilent Technolo Britis fn HHH A box is then brought up from which the required channel can be selected in case there is more than one displayed Clicking on Select Channel will bring up a list of channel calculations and their parameters Click in the one which is required and a button will be displayed which shows OK Adjust X where X is the channel name and the calculation number that has been selected 5 CHAPTER 4 Channel Bend Curent Channel End Bending Restore Original Use mouse to drag blobs vertically up or down Once this has been clicked then the chart will appear with three blobs on it located along the center line of the channel The channel bending form will still be displayed but can be moved out of the way if required The leftmost blob is at the junction of the actual channel and the extrapolated portion This one cannot be adjusted The other two can be clicked on with the mouse and dragged vertically up or down by keeping the mouse button depressed When the mouse button is released the channel is redrawn in the new position Moving blobs 2 and 3 by this means will enable the user to relocate the channel in what the user thinks is a better positi
112. s Exit ONDJFMAMJJASONDJIFMAMJIJASOND JFMAMJJASOND JF 04 05 06 07 08 Click to INCREASE maximum Y value by one interval 10 12 2007 05 44 Sum Green wavelengths from 26 to 75 115 CHAPTER 6 E Channalyze E x File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Yersion Help N aad A ry ep ep 24 2 ef fl Pl yee BoE Single Wavelength Agilent Technolo 425 Set Wavelength 1 H fae aes oi i o fis 4 Go j j i i rt ioi H Nudge Step f1 Nudge Up Down Scan Wavelengths bes Nase i l R i i Start End i oi i i i oi Sa E 25 hs Hpo H eA Seen I MA a Be lear epee Gey nent ae pee De 225 In steps of 1 a rat PEN AR ues iat oe s r 20 Good Count 27 ONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJF Curren twave 350 Hi Ja i i Sum of all cycles from 76 to 350 i s0 M Plot while scanning 14 ro o a 4 s 14 Go _ Stop ie ea reini ea ea a ea ia AEA a E ete eee Doppler Set Maximum Shift i h tt ot ae i 30 2 Click to INCREASE maximum Y value by one interval 10 12 2007 05 45 Sum Blue wavelengths from 76 to 350 In many cases the distribution plot shows more concentration of cycles over just a few bands of wavelengths A good example of this is Lloyds TSB which is in the Samples folder As seen on the next page the stable cycles are distributed between two bands with no cycles of long wavelength present If the Low Mediu
113. s we would expect the cleanest output from applying a wavelength of 301 and this is indeed the case as shown below Py Channalyze KES File Securities Prices Screen Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Flag NextFlag PreviousFlag Reports Updater Yersion Single Wavelength Set Wavelength ii E 400 350 Nudge Step f 300 Nudge Up Down 250 Scan Wavelengths 200 Start End lt 150 15 i 350 100 Insteps of f Good Count f0 50 Current wave 0 E 5 50 JV Plot while scanning Go Stop 100 bes 150 Doppler Set Maximum Shift 200 20 a 250 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 End Analysis es scan period 30 150 Results Exit 7 ai A A lt i 2 100 150 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 4 97 CHAPTER 5 On the other hand we would not expect the output of applying a wavelength of 41 to give such a clean output and this can be seen below Calculations Chans Cycles Flag Next h Calcul NextFlag Previous Flag Reports Updater Version D m Gai ARDEA NREREBeae ine Wave 41 1 P Sine Wave 01 301 File Securities Prices Screen Gra Single Wavelength Set Wavelength Be A Note after the vertical line at the 1500 point which represents the last data point in the sine wave mixture the wave appears to be perfectly regular This is because it has been computed as the future course of the isolated 41 point cycle by calcul
114. s where in the line the date is held it is necessary to set the format of the date since there is a multitude of ways in which dates are held in files The date order can be day month year or year month day or month day year and so on The year may be four characters such as 2008 or may be just two characters such 08 The month may be numeric two characters such as 02 or 11 or may be held as a three character short alphabetical such as Jan May Nov etc Two character numeric months must have DD in their format while three character alphabetical months must have DDD in their format There may be no separators between the day months and years or there may be a or between them If there are separators these must be indicated by an X at that position Some examples 20081026 would be represented by YYYYMMDD 081026 would be represented by YYMMDD 10 26 08 would be represented by MMXDDXYY 10 26 2008 would be represented by MMXDDXYYYY 26 10 08 would be represented by DDXMMXYY 10Feb2008 would be represented by DDMMMYYYY 17 CHAPTER 1 7 Units Most data files now set the values for O H L C as decimal e g 123 25 in which case a zero 0 should be entered in this box If fractions are being used then decide whether the fractions are based on 4 8 16 32 etc Then decide on which character separates the whole part of number and the fractional part This is usually a hyphen but may also be a slash or even
115. security even if a different one was selected prior to the sorting operation Showing Security Temporary List If this item is not showing a check mark then clicking on this item will cause the right hand panel to clear This panel is used to display a list the Temporary List of securities which can then be deleted or copied or moved to another folder Securities are placed in this temporary list as shown on the next page under the heading Adding Securities to the Temporary List The Temporary List can also be accessed from the Screen menu as described in Chapter 1 The Show Security Temporary List item in the drop down menu will now have a check mark to its left If the Show Security Temporary List item is clicked when it is checked then the list is closed the item becomes unchecked and the screen will revert to its state prior to selection of the Temporary List When selected the right hand panel will then clear shown over 23 CHAPTER 2 File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help 3M Company Abbott Laborator ACE Limited Adolph Coors Com Agilent Technolo Air Products amp C Alcan Inc USA Alcoa Inc Allegheny Energy Allegheny Techno Allergan Inc Allied Waste Ind Allstate Cor Alltel Corporati 8606 75 9182 700 159 75 735 8803 05 12 2007 10 05 The header at the top of this blank screen shows Securities ready for deletion moving or copying and Secur
116. st contain three characters giving 36 in total for the string 10 Test settings Once you are satisfied that the settings are correct then it is desirable to test them before saving the format First of all select a line containing data by clicking on it Then click on Test Settings The box below will then be displayed Channalyze Using the settings TOOHLCY the Fields will be interpreted as Ticker BBI Name Wot present Date 15 06 2003 Period Open OF 98 High 9692 Low OF 98 Close 9692 Volume 341415 Open Int Mok present Check above especially the date very carefully and change settings if above is not correct 19 CHAPTER 1 If all is well then the date will appear correctly If there is no periodicity e g D W then this item is left blank If the name is not present in the file then the name used as the title of the chart is the name of the file itself Once the OK button on this form is clicked followed by the OK button on the Set Text Format form then the form is closed and the security is plotted File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help r am re 2 2 of all roe ey fe BBl csy BBl csv i en ne ee a a ae ae a a ae a a a a a re Ge Se a E JFMAMJJASOND JIFMAMJJASONODJIFMAMJJASONODJIFMAM J 0405 07 08 4 Click to INCREASE maximum Y value by one interval 27 02 2008 09 45 From this point on the Stocklist behaves just as
117. the Cycle Panel allows the wavelength to be scanned from a predetermined starting point to an end point The steps by which the scan is incremented each time can also be set With a step of 1 the scan will take much longer than if a step of say 10 is used but the difficulty then is that information of short span cycles will be lost Scan Wavelengths Start End is 8 fa50 ET ET In steps of 1 Good Count E Curent wave iw Plot while scanning la Stop If we leave the setting as above and click Go to scan this complex sum of three sine waves with the box Plot while scanning ticked then you will see each scan plotted in succession 99 CHAPTER 5 You will notice that as the wavelength increases the short term movements gradually disappear until after a scan value of around 210 the plot shows an almost clean cycle of wavelength 301 Since the last part of the plot is extrapolated by calculation you will notice that as the scan is proceeding the peak or trough near the position of the last data point will move around from left to right over a small distance This is due to the small amount of error inevitably present in predicting the exact path of the future cycle Once the scan is complete or you stop if by clicking on Stop you will be presented with the Cycle Distribution plot The Y axis represents the persistence of each cycle and the X axis is the wavelength 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Data
118. the Stocklist panel then a similar message to that above will warn you that the format is not set Pd Set Text Format First 25 lines in file All p cet Fields BBI 20030618 0 9799 0 9892 0 9798 0 9892 3414151 TDOHLCY How BBI 20030619 0 9892 1 0078 0 9892 0 9995 8949871 BBI20030620 0 9995 1 0078 0 9892 1 0078 588889 BBI20030623 1 0545 1 1105 1 0452 1 0918 14384781 BBL 20030624 1 1012 1 1385 1 1012 1 1385 2024245 Sanaa BBI20030625 1 1395 1 1385 1 0918 1 1012 1504953 BBI20030626 1 1012 1 1105 1 0918 1 0918 7370381 YYYYMMDD How BBI20030627 1 0918 1 0918 1 0825 1 0825 6229821 BBI 20030630 1 0825 1 0918 1 0731 1 0825 2904241 BBI 20030701 1 0639 1 0731 1 0545 1 0638 689459 Sones BBI 20030702 1 06381 0731 1 0545 1 0545 6358321 BBI 20030703 1 0638 1 0918 1 0638 1 0825 16552311 E How BBL 20030704 1 0731 1 0825 1 0638 1 0639 7713911 BBL 20030707 1 0731 1 0825 1 0638 1 0638 730441 s x Siig lines Months string 0 How JanFebMarAprM aWundulaugSepO cthovDec OF Save Cancel Test Settings 15 CHAPTER 1 3 Set text files format From the File drop down menu select Set Text Files Format to bring up a box where the format can be set by showing the contents of the first file in the Stocklist previous page By examining a line very closely the exact sequence of the values held in the file can be determined Note 1 some text files include a header line as the first line which will show the names of the var
119. thin the file The front form is displayed initially and gives some suggested file extensions normally used by the data providers Without this extension being stored Channalyze would not be able to locate the files The above example shows the extension D this is used by Financial Express for their files which have the Standard format The Apply button would apply the settings for each of these tabbed forms and still leave the form on the screen The OK button would apply the settings and store them on disk and then close the form The Cancel button obviously closes the form without doing anything The Help button brings up a help list for the selected tab Clicking on the tabs at the top will bring the form belonging to the selected tab to the front Updating Settings _ oO STEP eee eee e g DOMM AYY AMM DD YYMMDD USE amp for invalid characters e g Awr MM Y 2 character years Mrr treated as 20r Cancel Apply Help For Field Order it is important that a field which is not required is entered as an X Thus frequently the Open Interest I field is always zero In such a case it should be represented by an X It 144 UPDATING YOUR DATA FILES is particularly important for the date format that slashes or hyphens are designated by Xs if the date is to be interpreted correctly It is important that all tabbed items have an entry before clicking on the OK button If you are just changing an existing form
120. ties in which there are just a few dominant cycles The distribution plot from this AutoScan using the middle scanning option is not the same as the one done by the manual method using the Cycle Panel shown over 123 CHAPTER 6 Paj Cycle Distribution Get Cycle 2 Get Cycle 3 Get Cycle 4 Plot 1 Plot 2 eee at 175 sl Sum Red Sum Green Plot 3 Plot 4 cakes Divide at 25 Sum Blue Plot AIl 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 aoc ttt OK Close Data Wavelength 152 Persistence 25 Allowable variation 25 a Replot with New z Print This is because during a manual scan using the Cycle Panel as the wavelengths increase then the rate at which they change slows down Sometimes a change of around 20 or 30 units will have no effect on the cycle plot This fact was used to create a faster scanning process by omitting some of the scans at these higher wavelengths This gives us the two other scanning options in the Step Profile section of the form These linear profiles used in the second and third Step Profile will therefore reduce the influence of the higher wavelengths in the cycle distribution Because of this the higher wavelengths will not have the same apparent persistence in the distribution plot Experiments have shown that the cycle sum produced from this profile has more contribution from short wavelength cycles and therefore can give a better indication of short term movements in the immediate
121. tion gt Cycle Sums Experiment with Sine Waves ONDJFMAMJJASONDJIFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONODJE Agilent Technolo Brit Am Tobacco British Airways Lloyds TSB McDonald s Corpo 08 0 06 05 04 09 50 07 03 2008 99 Click to DECREASE minimum Y value by one interval CHAPTER 4 Simple Moving Average Choosing this item will bring up a box into which the period of the average can be entered the color selected in which it will be plotted and whether it should be plotted with no lag or centered fe Add Calculation 1 Seles Simple Average Properties OF Period 1 a im _ ok Cancel 0 Centered The pre set value for the period is 41 and this can be changed in two ways Clicking on the up down arrows will increment or decrement the value until the required one is obtained Alternatively click on the text box which contains this value use the delete key or back delete key to remove the current value and enter the required value through the keyboard The default color is bright blue and this can be changed by clicking on this colored box The standard Windows color box shown in the last chapter is then presented from which the user can select a new color The other small box to the right of the colored box allows different line styles and thicknesses to be chosen Clicking on this will bring up the Line Styles box already discussed in the last chapter The th
122. to have bottomed out already and has just started to rise again The process can repeated twice more so as to collect a total of four cycles 110 CYCLES IN MARKET DATA Paj Cycle Distribution Get Cycle 2 Get Cycle 3 Get Cycle 4 Plot 1 Plot 2 MedHi Divide at 75 sl Sum Red Sum Green 200 203 232 232 101 102 22 24 Plot 3 Plot 4 cakes Divide at 25 Irr Blue Plot AIl lent Technolo Agilent 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 _ nn EEE TTT OK Close fats Wavelenath 22 Persistence 7 Allowable variation 25 aa Replot with New By clicking on Plot All the sum of these is plotted in the lower box If one or other of the cycles when plotted does not look reasonably regular over its last few excursions then it can be left out by clicking on the OK Close button and then re selecting the Results button The four boxes at the top of the distribution screen will be clear of values and the selection process can be repeated leaving out the irregular cycle It is not strictly necessary to select four cycles since good results can usually be obtained with three provided the cycles are very persistent and are obviously much more important than any others in the distribution plot The longer wavelength cycles tend to be the most regular and the shorter wavelengths the least t is important that the cycles of higher wavelengths are selected for the summation process Again the distribution can be closed by cl
123. uired during updating If necessary the security list in a folder can be read for example in order to check how up to date the data is that is being held in it The initial appearance of the screen is shown below The second item on the menu bar Security is greyed out but will become live if the File menu is used to Open View the securities in a folder S Universal Updater Markets Market Parameters Updating Update Log Channalyze 27 10 2007 09 52 128 UPDATING YOUR DATA FILES Information Required for Updating to Proceed Before the Updater can be used for the first time it must be given certain information After this this will only need to be done if current details need to be changed or a new market added If this information is missing the fact can be established by looking at the two labels below the row of buttons If no market is selected or available then the first label shows Current market none If a market has not been selected or the format has not been set then the second label shows Format not set The first time of use there will be no list of markets from which to choose Clicking on the Markets menu will bring the following drop down menu Ej Universal Updater UEA Market Parameters Updating Update Log Channalyze List Markets Add a New Market Delete a Market Change Current Market 27 10 2007 09 55 Adding a New Market For first time users this is the first thing to be done Clicking on A
124. ulation is request via the Add Calculation menu the input box shown on the next page is displayed 64 CALCULATIONS P Add Calculation 1 MACE Froperties Period 1 en B C OK Trigger line color DE Hote other Bog 2 calculations will be inhibited d file bs Cancel Note the greyed out option for entering the period is set at 26 12 for the reason given on the previous page The plot will also have no lag as shown below Paj Channalyze meS File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Yersion Help 26 12 MACD 4 Click to DECREASE minimum Y value by one interval 07 03 2008 10 15 65 CHAPTER 4 RSI Relative Strength Index The RSI examines the number of daily rises and daily falls in suc cessive 14 day periods The daily rises in a period are summed to give a total up and the daily falls in the same period to give a total dn These are then divided by 14 to give values say uv and dv From these the RSI is calculated as follows RSI 100 100 1 uv dv The input box for this calculation is shown below E Add Calculation 1 RSI Froperties Feriod 1 14 E OK Note other Bos 2 calculations will be inkibited No lan Cancel Note the input box for the period is greyed out since only the value 14 is used As shown on the next page the line is plotted with no lag When the value of the RSI rises above the 80 level traders take this to be a sell sign
125. units depend on the circumstances and could be days weeks months or years The amplitude is the vertical height between a peak and a trough We are using the term Offset instead of phase so that its meaning is more clearly understood It means how much the wave is moved from an arbitrary starting point In the box shown on the next page the maximum offset is one wavelength An offset of say half a wavelength would shift the peaks one half a wavelength to the right in the display Three different sine waves can be calculated via this item and they are then added together To leave out one or two of the three simply set the amplitude to zero Thus a single sine wave can be produced or the sum of two or the sum of three If the Experiment with Sine Waves item in the Calculations menu is selected then the screen on the next page is displayed 91 CHAPTER 5 E Sine Wave Short Wavelengths Wavelength 4 Amplitude 50 Offset Medium Wavelengths Wavelength 101 Amplitude 4 00 Offset Long Wavelength Wavelength 201 Amplitude g Offset To disable a wave set its amplitude to zero Note Amplitudes should increase with wavelength Base line 100 OK Cancel All offsets are set to zero for this exercise Once the OK button is clicked then the result is plotted E Chan LEX File Securities Prici Screen Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Flag NextFlag PreviousFlag Reports Updater Yersion Donon 2 Ate
126. urrent security is selected then the cycles in Agilent Technology are determined and their sum produced as a plot in the lower box 120 CYCLES IN MARKET DATA chan feel File Securities Pric Screen Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Flag NextFlag Previous Flag Reports Updater Yer TIT al RES Agilent Technolo 42 5 Brit Am Tobac British Airways Lloyds TSB p 40 McDonald s Corpo i i H t H 37 5 fe i L 35 fal H 325 30 ees f r g my k 225 W 20 OND JFMAMJJASOND IFMA MJJASOND JFMAMJJASOND J F 04 05 06 i Auto sum of all cycles 40 30 ath NINZAN la AZ n T fx N NN ee AT 0 Ty Nip Ny 10 Moy 20 T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T ON DJFM A M j j n 5 ONDBJFMAMJJASONDJIFMAMJ J A SOND J F 04 05 06 0 4 Click to INCREASE maximum Y value by one interval 02 11 2007 16 42 The cycle sum of course only uses cycles with wavelength of 15 days and above Therefore the day to day fluctuations in the actual market data will not be apparent Even so it is clear from comparing the upper and lower boxes that the cycle sum is a good representation of the underlying trends with some differences in the amplitude of the movements Scanning for cycles in this way has the effect of clearing all calculations from the chart in the upper box Any such calculations can be activated again by clicking on the item Show Cycle Sums in the drop down menu This is useful
127. use they use a triangular set of weights The values of these weights are calculated automatically from the value used for the span of the average They increase up to a central value and then decrease 58 CALCULATIONS up to the final value The number of weights is the same as the value of the span To calculate the first value of the average each of the n data values where n is the span of the average is multiplied by the appropriate weight This method gives the largest influence to the central data point and the smallest influence to the first and last of the n data points The process of multiplying with weights is then moved to the next set of n values and so on until all have been calculated Paj Channalyze Hex File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help N T a ES PT e221 all ee 2 Agilent Technolo McDonald s Corpo 57 Brit Am Tobacco i British Airway H Lloyds TSB 56 McDonald s 55 s 54 53 r 2 i WN z g il 49 j 48 E 47 i I 46 hy L 45 1 di 7 m L 44 py VV a iE n E 2 42 1275 1300 1325 1350 1375 1400 1425 1450 1475 1500 1525 4 gt Click to INCREASE maximum Y value by one interval 07 12 2007 06 56 When this item is selected from the list of various averages a similar box to that displayed for simple moving averages is then shown The span and color are selected as before When plotted the triangular average will a
128. velength is shown in the title of the lower box appears to be bottoming out at the current point in time Since the persistence of 25 showed it to be the most important cycle present in the data this cycle will have a large influence over future movement of the stock price The mathematics of the computation for each individual cycle means that the last true calculated point terminates half of the value of the scanning period in the past from the latest data point The pathway of the cycle is extrapolated from that point to the present and on into the not too distant future The further away from this last true point we move the greater is the inaccuracy but it is not unacceptable for some modest distance say half of the wavelength into the future The purpose of these operations is to select up to four significant cycles view each of these individually and then add them 108 CYCLES IN MARKET DATA together This will then provide an indication of how the underlying trend of the stock data should proceed into the future Sometimes of course there aren t four such cycles present or there are many more than four In this case judgement has to be used as to which cycles should be chosen However it will be seen that in the AutoScan mode all stable cycles will be collected and summed The current operations serve more as a research tool into the significance of certain cycles in determining future movement Now restore the distribut
129. y a centered average can be used in this calculation Since this calculation gives values which are totally different from those for the original data the result is plotted in a separate box below that used for the data The timescales will be exactly the same and any rescaling operation on one box which involves a change of the timescale will also be applied to the other box The screen shot on the next page shows the relationship between the 41 point triangular centered moving average in the top box and the 41 point MA difference in the lower box When the data is above the moving average the values in the lower box are positive and when the data lies below the average the values in the lower box are negative 62 CALCULATIONS Paj Channalyze DES File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cycles Reports Version Help 1275 1300 1325 41 MA Difference 41 MA Difference 3 ae E we SEese ee semen oeeeneee a fe hen aene aE ome eee ate IERA E KUP EPS NEEE I VEEE A Gh See ec M eee oa tact TANEN EN EAT 1 mie he A Se op ee Yee Semen eee eg ae Pee E ee et em SERE Veet Se eae e ey eee er 0 eae S S ar nce ga yt Sg a aI rN CRO aaa ope ey ga gee SP AE hem AET ea lp ee 4 2 i i i i i i i 3 1275 1300 1325 1350 1375 1400 1425 1450 1475 1500 1525 Click to INCREASE maximum Y value by one interval 07 12 2007 07 19 Paj Channalyze DES File Securities Prices Graph Calculations Chans Cyc
130. y clicking on the Folders item in the menu E Parameters for London cje Pre set Formats Custom Format Check Format Folders Change Folder holding Updating Files Current format Name EOD Metastock9 Select Folders to be Updated Field order TPDOHLCY Date format WW Y MMDD Date location within file Extension TXT Updating files stored in Number of target folders 0 Save Format IL From the drop down menu choose Change Folder holding Updating Files This will bring up the browser from which the appropriate folder can be chosen and its location stored The screen for this is shown on the next page You should navigate to the appropriate folder on the list of folders held on the computer Double clicking on this will put its name in the box at the top right hand of the form If you are not sure whether the folder holds the correct updating files then click on the button Show Updating Files in Above Folder This will list the files if they have the correct file extension e g txt as shown on the next page If this is the correct folder then click on OK to store this information and return to the previous screen 136 UPDATING YOUR DATA FILES Parameters for London Pre set Formats Custom Format Check Format Folders Curent format Hame EOD Metastacks Field order TPOOHLCY Date format ry MMDD Date location within file Extension TAT
131. zed and moved out of the way of any detail that you might wish to examine If it is moves in this way then the cycles which have been chosen remain as chosen If the OK Close button is clicked the plot is closed It can be brought back by clicking on the Results button in the Cycle Panel If this is done then although the distribution plot remains as it was the selected cycles will have been cleared and will need to be selected again Summing Low Medium and High Wavelengths The bar below the distribution plot is divided into three sections From left to right they are colored red green and blue These allow you to sum three segments of cycles low medium and high wavelengths The boundaries or cut offs between low and medium and medium and high wavelengths can be adjusted by means of the two boxes at the top of the form to the left of the Sum Red and Sum Blue buttons The default values are 75 and 25 With these settings clicking on Sum Red will sum the stable cycles between wavelengths 15 and 25 inclusive stable cycles means those cycles that are shown in the distribution plot Clicking on Sum Green will sum those cycles of wavelengths between 26 and 75 Clicking on Sum Blue will sum those cycles between 76 and the last scan value selected 350 in the current scan Note there is no way that the sum of all the cycles can be plotted from this distribution plot Such a total sum is carried out via the AutoScan item in the Chan Cyc

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