Vol.35-4 (PDF:7.32MB)
Contents
1.2.
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13. F
14. 2
15. 6 3 11
16. gt 4
17. 6
18. 35 4 2013
19. 4 1
20. 10
21. 3 2050 1 6
22. 1
23. 8 8 311 911
24. 3 09
25. EE 6
26. 15
27. 1 35 4 2013 3 6
28. 2050 R V
29. 35 4 2013 1ICT 1
30. H 1 gt
31. 1 1960 1970 1980 2000
32. 6 4 14
33. 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 3 2030 35 4 2013 97 COz 100 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 4 CCO COz 4 4b 4a
34. LPG
35. 2007 3
36. PV 4 13
37. 4 80km
38. 4 3 2 M9 10m
39. 6 3 1 2030 20 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 6 38 PV
40. 1984 18 10 1997 UD 911 NRC
41. 4 35 4 2013
42. a kW 7 8 15 2009 8 7 15 b
43. 8 1994
44. 10 20 5 1 kWh
45. 13 5 1 5 GE 40 BWR Mark1 GE Mark1
46. CO 1 1 2 COP 5 g MJ CO 60 50 A0 as 0 20 10 0 1 COP 3 COP 5
47. ICT 3 11 20 35 4 2013 7
48. 4
49. 3
50. 3 4 5 35 4 2013 1990
51. 1 1 Energy security Economy Environment 3 EE 2 0 1 1 3E
52. 1 1kW 1 000 1 000 kW 1 3kW 30 100 kW 300 1 000 kW 1
53. 11 5 000 1 2 3 BN kL
54. 40 35 4 2013
55. 1 10m 1 1 1 10m 20 100 1
56. 35 4 2013 35 4 25 1 20 105 0003 1 14 2 SY 8F 03 3508 8894 FAX 03 3501 8021 http Www iae orJp 63
57. 1
58. GE BWR Mark1 GE 35 4 2013
59. M9 10m 3
60. e e lt 1 lt gt gt gt gt LS SE gt ee ON ONO ON ON ON OO OO OE CN NN lt 2 lt 5 3 3 OCC CSCC EC EE EE rj TT lt z 9 35 4 2013 1 gt gt RR RR RR RR RR RR RR RR RR RR RR RR RR RR RR RR RR RR RR RR SS AT NNT NN NT NT NT NT NT NT NT NT NT NT NT NT NT NT NT NT NT NT NT NT
61. 2030 80GW 28GW 2030 1 kWh 80GW 28GW 1 2 15 25 2500kWh
62. 10 2050
63. 1 5
64. 7 1 1
65. 35 4 2013 49 S
66. 6 77 2 10 3 1998 1 2
67. 2 3 4 2050 lt 4
68. 1 10 20
69. 6 9 14
70. group think
71. 2050 2050 2 1 1
72. CO 100 100 2
73. 35 4 2013 59 W 10
74. 1 5
75. 1 M9 M9 10
76. 1 kW 42 lt 1
77. 1 1 2 3 5 1 5 1
78. 2
79. 3 2010 4 2030 3 4a 2030 10 Pa So o gt me 2 ska SS gi o0 eo 5 i 2013 2015 2017 0 021 2023 2025 2027 2029
80. CO2
81. CO CO 15 25 2 CO CO gt 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 CO 1
82. 4 2010 301 458 kWh 2030 121 264 kWh 30 7 2
83. 2 2 1 27 8 8
84. 80 56 8 NN 72 1 69 76 7 a 68 8 77 5 6544 40 21 93 41 RS O 22 0 ag It ga 0 KW gt 11 1 027 119 147 101 88 226 874 175 285 1 2009 48 40 1 7 8 2050
85. 5 2050 2050
86. 869 M9 2011 10
87. 200 kW FIT
88. 3 lt
89. 2011 10 NO
90. incident report 1
91. 10 6 470 kW 7 3490 kW 60 kW 60 6 35 4 2013
92. 2 3
93. 9 ez 3 SCS CSEC CECI CEC CE CECE CE CECE CECE ESE LS 3 NE lt 2 a gt ey ee gt lt SS gt 35 4 2013 30 40
94. 8 PV 3000 kW 3 100 kW 4 2 1 1 1 1 oo 20 IKW m21 1 h
95. 2050 1 2050
96. 2 3 3 2030 2010 2030 1 900 kWh 2 2010 2030 2010 2030 2010 2030 3 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 kW 2 000 1 0
97. 2 C 17 35 4 2013 OE Nh 0 I
98. 30 2050 13 2005 2020 2030 2050 2050 2050 2005 1 000 kW 1 000 kW 25 000 20 000 15 000 10 000 kW 8 2005 2
99. 4 2 1999
100. 40 3
101. 1 3 gt i341 1 MV 1 1 2 7 7 ee EE i 1 33 x vm 10 3 40 4 1 10
102. LNG CO 2050 CO CO 7 26 LNG Cool Earth
103. PV
104. 3HR 3R 2050
105. 12 2005 2010 2005 LNG 2 3000 kW 2005 11 1 6000 1 8000 kW 100 50 70 80 LNG
106. 3 35 4 2013 20
107. 5 5 1 M9 10m M9
108. 1 3 lt lt OO OE OOO CEO CE CCCI I oO oO lt 2
109. GE 5 gt ATC
110. 53 85 83 25 000 20 000 15 000 R jo000 5 000 0 12 2005 2010 30 5 2020 5 30
111. SPPEDI 1 5 JCO 999 9 35 4 2013 JCO
112. LNG 40 LNG 30 5 LNG 2050 3 2
113. B5b 35 4 2013
114. 22 2 35 ee 46 60 SR 61 339 8 38 8003788533 30eS2 818 88938 382S28 2 3580 Seek 03338 63 SE a
115. 6 SPEEDI
116. N N Q NN N Nt N N Q N Q N N N N N Q NN Q NN N N N 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 9 5 1
117. i 3 PV 12 1 24 PV PV gt HNN Il TH Ill lll 12 42 24
118. 2030 1 PV 15 1 400 PV Wind 1 200 Mm oi BLNG Nuclear 1 000 Hydro Geo coal 36 PV PV 11 12 20 15 EUE Expected Unserved Energy LOLP Loss of Load Probability
119. 2050 60 2 SOFC
120. 2 CCS
121. 1 2030 2050 35 4 2013 20 40
122. 2011 12 2 M9
123. CO0 gt 318 12 21 14 00 16 00 5 501 502 9 Vo140 No 5 1 2012 2012 10 35 4 2013 61 lI Ni 4 lI CO0 11 Vol 40 No 6
124. 5 12 11 1 223 UN 2
125. 2 20 2 2030 1 5 20 25 55 2030 J J 1 2 1 ee BMN o6 0 4 0 2 0 COP 3 COP 5 90
126. c 11 1985 2010 1985 1995 2000 20 000 19 000 18 000 17 000 16 000 15 000 14000 FN 13 000 4 12 000 y 1 8099 x 11 000 R 0 8443 10 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 10 000 11 000 kWh 11 1985 1995
127. 1 9
128. 2 1 2030 30 40 2030 2 CCS
129. 2012 9 14 1 2 CO2
130. 38 9 41 9 096 NG eggg ao so96 ao oo t 39 ose 4o eo9e 4o ss oy 2096 20 30 20 2 19 8 709 30 8096 40 40 1296 20 2030 35 S096 1096 14 2030
131. 1994 NOx CO gt 2000 CO NEDO IGCC NEDO CO IGCC CO CO gt CO0 CCS 2030 205
132. 2010 23 Taleb NN The black swan The impact of highly improbable Random House 2004 2009 OC OC OC 9OC 9OCS 9OC 9OC OC OC 9OC 9OC 9OC 9OCY OIE OIE OE CE GIO ICE OIC 9oC 9 OC YOC 97OCW nt oC 39OCY IO I I OL OL OL I I OL KA 6 I OL OR 2050 gt 4 SS YA 2 OO NO OE CEO OE OE OE OE OE OEICE OIE OIE OIE OE OE CE CE GIOE OIE OE DIOE OE OE ICE TNOE TE TE 9 IO I OLIO amp I 9 69 9 CR 9 IO amp OLIO DRO 1
133. 4 2 2 1 1kW 15 2 3 22 3 3 39 10
134. PV 6 35 4 2013 43 7 2012 3 BEMS HEMS
135. 3 Pb 1969 41 35 4 2013 a B
136. 7 4 1 4 20 2 PV PV 2 kW PV 1 5000 kW 4 3 1 4000 kW 2000 kW 4 4 5 PV
137. CO LNG CO CCS 1 2012 9 14 2 34 4 17 29 2012 1 3 2009 4 2011 12 19 5
138. 9 2050 2 1 1 7200 kL 1 2010 2030 3 9 kL 3 1 kL 47 200 kL 1 1 kWh 10 kWh 41 100 kWh 26 10 30 3 000 kWh 63
139. e 22 40 2030 2030 2030 e 48 LNG 60 3 2020 CCS LNG CO LNG CO LNG
140. 40 1 40 40
141. D
142. A USC 750C IGCC IGFC CO2 CCS CO CO 21 8 3 2030 GDP 1 GDP 2030 2050 1 GDP 2030 2030
143. 3 A B A kW 2009 2010 131 33 3 9 1027 310 3 3 119 62 1 9 147 83 1 8 101 59 1 7 88 61 1 4 226 141 1 6 874 1340 0 6 175 1118 0 15 285 127 2 2 76 48 1 6 1 kW 0 6 kW 01
144. 10
145. 24 10 2 25 1 1 18 10 5 16 00 19 30 1 2 CO0 3 24 10 5 316 10 26 14 00 16 00 5 501 502 24 1 2015
146. 4 5 6 group think
147. I 07 11 35 4 2013 _ EMS PV 2
148. 2a PV80GW 28GW 40 2p PV80GW 28GW 2 40 PV80GW 28GW 4a 5 5 3756W 4b PV80GW 28 5 5 PV PV160GW 160GW 35 4 2013 GW 9 1 35 kW 25 kW LNG 15 kW 2011 1
149. E 1960 2030 1 1 000 2011 1 GDP
150. ECCS 1997 PR 2000 5 7
151. 1 1 6 1000 5 000 1
152. evidence based evidence based 9 evidence based
153. 5 WW M7 4 70 5 28 30 70
154. kWh kWh kW kWh Lf x
155. 2kW HEMS IT HEMS 1 1
156. 5
157. 5 1 1 2
158. 1 1980 17 2012 18 1 2012 19 20 18 2012 20 7 2 3 12 1996 21 http www iam t jp HIRAI pageall html 22 Solnit R A paradise built in hel The extraordinary communities that arise in disaster Viking Adult 2009
159. 100 Ei gt 4 ES 12345678 9101112131415161718192021222324 SR 0 8 eld chg 0 me B sch chg hw eo HN 2 lt 5 44886KkdGx26KK04444 RLLEETTT LELLLLLLLLLLLLLTTIEL yo 2 Original Lead 1 System load 23456789101112131415161718192021222324 Teal isd 123456789101112131415161718192021222324 0 2b pvr 13 5
160. 2050 2005 2 2005 LNG LNG CO gt 1 CO 2 kWh kW
161. 4b 4a 4b CO 5 100 90 80 70 LNG 60 PV 2 10 0 1 2a 2b 3 4a 4b 4c 5 2030 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 LNG 1 PV 1
162. 10 24 26 HySUT 2 34 317 11 28 11 30 14 00 16 00 5 501 502 1 32 12 7 2
163. 2 2030 2 2 5000 kW PV5 300 kW 1000 kW 6 000 kW 1 4a 4c PV 80GW 28GW 500 2 Pv wind Hydro Geo 400 300 200 GW 100 PV 160GW 16GW TWh 2a 4b PV 8000 kW 2800 kW 4c 1 6 000 kW 4b 4a 2030 2 1 kWh
164. ul a LNG LNG 45 60 LNG LNG 60 3 i 2 W RY HHV 5 A USC 2020 100 48 A USC CCS 2025 90 38 IGCC 50 48 IGCC CCS 1 5 45 38 Me 50 IGCC icccrccs 2925 a 2 IGFC CCS 2030 1 10 25 35 50 58 35 4 2013 27
165. 2012 5 34 223 UN 1 2030 2010 6 RR 2011 3 11 ESPRIT 1 NN J 2 1 4 1 2030
166. 4 6 PV 2 1 35 4 2013 39 3 PV PV
167. 1 1 3 G4
168. 9 3
169. 4 50 3 2012 31 4b 4 4c 40 2030 4c 4a PV 4b
170. SFG LAiecc 46 HHV Co Dry Sorbent 2 0 GJ t CO2 E Chilled Ammonia 2 CO Cd sh 7 7 CO ecc ecc 14 CO 32 EU OO LNG 0 2000 4000 3 58 LNG 05 1 5 LNG CO
171. 4 LNG 61 73 LNG LNG 2020 6000 LNG 3000 10 3000 F KW KWh 30 000 12 000 25 000 10 000 12 20000 8 000 gt 15 000 3 3 6 000 ao eA 10000 2 3 24 4 000 5000 2000 92 0 6 Lh 30 J 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050 8 kWh 12 000 7000 10 000 mE 0000 fe 8 000 3 6 000 NG ELSt 63 Gs 73 7 927 0 49 232Z 213390 928 gt 4536 7 4 000 24 43 2 000 2040 2050 2030 0 2005 2020 1970 1985 2000 2005 2007 2010
172. a EPHEV HP EY PHEV lt gt EMS
173. 2012 10 1 HEMS
174. 35 4 2013 6000 CO2 ton CO2 15 LNG CO2 LNG 33 LNG 50 70 40 1 CO2 8000 DME CO 2 CO2 EOR SNG LNG LNG CO CO
175. 1990 8 No 4 1 30 2009 9 Lowrance W W Of acceptable rsk Scjence and the determination of satety Los Altos William Kaufmann Inc 1976 10 2011 731 11 2011929 12 53 7 465 472 2012 8 13 Hopkins A Thinking about process safety indicators Safety Science 47 460 465 2009 35 4 2013 14 21 1 1 5 2011 15 Knight FH sk uncertainty and pro Boston Houghton Mi in 1921 1959 16
176. 1 1 21 4 237 247 2011 2 Janis LL Victims of groupthink A psychological study of foreign policy decisions and fiascoes Houghton Mifflin 1972 3 1991 4 1983 5 1 18 2 3 22 2008 6 1 46 COE 2010 7 Reischauer E O Jansen M B The apanese today Mass Harvard University Press 1988
177. 470 kW 277 kW kW 5 500 450 400 250 2 150 100 50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 350 300 10 7 5
178. 30 2011 6 2 PSE 11 152 PE 11 136 2011 9 3 2012 5 4 2011 12 2050 2010 6 2030 50
179. CO CO 8 2020 2030 LNG 30 25 15 2050 11 LNG LNG 30 2050 45 3 1 80 LNG 1 9 LNG LNG LNG
180. 7 NASA NASA
181. NASA 8 PSA
182. IGCC A USC 2020 CCS 2025 CO CO 2030 2050 13 35 4 2013 CO CO A et 10 CO CO CO CO2 CO2 CO gt CCS CO
183. 90 1 CO MJ km g km CO 2 0 140 120 1 100 80 ei I ON ERE 10 DER 0 5 40 i 20 10km kWh 18 6km L 30km L 10km kWh 18 6km L 30km L E 2 CO 2 35 4 2013 23 CO 4 COP 3 65 CO 2 1
184. PV 5300 kW 1000 kW 2a 4b PV8 000 kW 2800 kW 2030 40 2b RN 1 PV 40 5 kW 15 5 kW 15 kW 1 4 No 1 2020 9 2030 14 PV53GW 10GW
185. 1 M9 1 1981 n 1 5 1 0 1 1950
186. 8 140 90 PV 40 20 5 0 SE SS SE SR REE 1 24 9 PV Ct de 2 PV
187. 2011 202 0 H 9 LNG LNG 28 2020 1 2005 1 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 1 2005 1 1 1 1 0 ER e 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 5 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050 10 CO2 LNG 10 CO2 2005 CO CCS 2030
188. NT NT NT NT 0 FHH ts k gt Ns gt Ze 4 4 4 4 wr 4 4 4 4 OCC OO OO OE OCC NN 2 0 RT TT TT TT TT TT TT TI TTT TT TI TT TT TT TTT TT TI TT TI TI GIN Dr EN lt S SS 9 3 11
189. 0 CO2 2 CO2 CIF 6 MMBTU 1 9 1000kcal LNG 15 18 MMBTU 4 7 56 1 000kcal 3 MMBTU 093 1 000kcal 40 30 JCOAL LNG LNG gt A UsC
190. 00 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 4 24 7 2 4 2010 360 kW 2030 5 300 6 300 kW 250 300 kW 2012 7 11 2030
191. 020 LNG 1 200 kW 85 3 300 kW 30 4 1 3 CO 2 e IGCC A USC e CO CCS CO e LNG 3
192. 35 4 2013 29
193. CO 15 CO gt LNG CCS CCS LNG CCS LNG CCS LNG LNG CO LNG CO 1000 LNG CCS 5 3 CO CO gt CCS 10
194. E 3E 2030 15
195. ISSN 0286 3162 Vol 35 No 4 2013 1 27 W THE INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ENERGY 27 27 WE mm The Institute of Applied Energy 24 10 5 10 00 15 45 oili 1 gh 3 1 5 2050
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