港湾空港技術研究所 資料
Contents
1.2.
3. 2
4. O 5
5. m 4 2 CONS BJ AYE v BUS
6. IPCC 5 BE 2004
7. C amp S
8. 3 3 1 UT AA 0310 Etau 9810 Zeb 3 3 1 0310 93 970hPa 20 30km h 9810 980hPa 70 90km h 70km
9. 3m 300 3 7m 5 3 7 955hPa 95km h 1 7m 0416
10. BS CME fru 2 KL 1 000
11. 9918 2 2 1 60 OILS EE D S 9918 FEDS 3 5 4m
12. 2006b 2006c 2007c 2007d Kawai et al 2006 2007 2008a 2008b 5 2 1 AIC HAPOEL FED 1999 D D Wem
13. 5 6 HIN Cale ind aad Ud 1951 iki sida omen cA E
14. 2 3 5 5 0 5 5m 4 3m 1m EER 2 3 2 SUUS 20i 8km 500m_ EA 2 3 6 2 3 5
15. EL 2 4 9 2 4 9 d EP n 2 4 10 2 4 10
16. 2002 2003 Takahashi et al 2002 5 5 9918 ko OBSESSA 1999 5 5 5 5 20003 COL 2
17. 2 3 1 0314 2 2 13 Nm 0418 0410 0416 0418 cm 0418 2 2 14 o Cue 2 2 15
18. ee ae eee SE RAM NZD UU Jg E D IBFEEBO A HERE OR ERR 2
19. i 77 1 T _ T T AT 2 T AS z y Z la AS y XA Zon V au m 1 AT COME Z li nk r 8 Am 4 2 1 5 3 2 b 4 19517 2000
20. 1 3 1 2 T MOLD Myers FE py rp Dc 3 4 1 Ap 3 4 13 9 6 9 B JBL 0418 980 hPa 4 300 km 100 km b Tob Po 3 4 2 hx BS610 e 04 89 e 6150 0418 1 6 rU
21. 20 30m Oe GT C0 KIC 2 4m 2m PRAY FYB FEO KSCHAZEIL Im cat ile bape IX Cei xb quo
22. A WET Hoe OMICS 2 1 mu 10cm
23. 1999 9 24 9918 1942 1959 12 2004 1951 10 0416 15 000 1959
24. 2 4 6 Inner Harbor Navigation Canal EI 2 3 8 Eo dp s EEUU Ee Un oe OEUE St EDRDOSRONERNE ANE bit UC dB ORI 6 owe 2 4 7 2 4 6 Inner Harbor Navigation Canal Ey oN b 2 4 7
25. ES JE SEG DHE ORO LOC BI SEES TEE TOAD BNET BU X Su mb emis D Scen CUBE Sole
26. T 239 0826 3 1 1 046 844 5048 Fax 046 842 5246 E mail kawai pari go jp 1 1 1 1953 13 1959 CR 1999 18 Fs 2004 10 2003 1959 2005
27. 4 FAD 1998 CHS i he Ma oon dosi dM ee Miei oe A 1990 1999 Kawai 2000 15 30m eines 50 Ow Hay
28. DS RA 9918 EK PCC 2007 T 2006 5 3
29. L m 9918 2 2 3 2 2 9
30. 4 0 6km Poot 3 1 8km 4 2 6 4 3 1 SGW ro 8 4 3 1 9918 Gen eg ite rad km h 99 924 5 0 1303 326 68 407 560 97 2 9 0 05 3 03 99 9 124 6 0 130 5 99 9 24 7 0 130 8 99 9 24 8 0 1312 339 63 500 525 58 3 5 1 24 0 94 99 9 24 9 01 1313 343 53 519 80 4 218 9 9 021 4 61 99 9 24 10 O 131 8 99 9 24 11 0 1322 353 53 1995 0 9
31. add bd e INN NII 2 4 5 17th Street Canal London Avenue Canal X ALTOS ORDE Een ee GR C 4
32. a RIC CD CD Janssen gt HH 0 5 IDE EE 0 WE 0 5 3 2 5 2 1 5 HO IDE ER 0 5 JE 0 0 5 1 1 5 0 3 6 9 12 1518210 3 6 9 12 15 9 12 h 9 13 4 5 5 B 4 5 6 3
33. Ch HPAMICKS WY ME 0310 0310 2 9810 4 9810 e H s o l E 1 8km M o099 da SF 05 E ooo 0 m m
34. V 3 Cb 5 3 5 4 FE X
35. SHE a 109 3 5 4 1 3 5 5 b 2 3 5 1 Oa KRETI 2 A B 2
36. T 1987 2000 2003 2005 1995b 2002 2002 2003 2007 FH 2001 2003 2005 KEELE BAO MEE 195172000 19517 1999 5 6 7 A 8 9H 10
37. IPCC 2007 1 1 6 4
38. 300m 4 36m s SMB 2m CLAS 2000a 2000b B 2 2 5 3 4m 3 2km 6 0m 120m RUT 3 9918 SICKAJA DRE FEO re d ren RE RS 2 2 8 90km 50km S
39. 5 FAYE RD ee HT WH
40. 0 400 DETR 1 2 2 8 31 700 D
41. 5 5 1 5 5 1 a b 5 5 1
42. wi c 0 6km PEND A 3 3 8 9810 3 3 3 7 3 3 8 3 3 9 a OCHS 0310 5 4km 0 6km
43. mi 3 5 3 4 4 LT 1 0416 6323
44. 2 2 6 2 2 7 150m 100m 100m ee A LX 596 5 Lee HB 557970 6 3 mal L Lv JBRAT uos 1 Sm 3 5 2 2 8 B gm b eee H W L 2 2 9 HL W L 2m
45. 1980 5 3 4 1 8 km 7 5s Dell Optiplex GX280 CPU Pentium R 4 3 6GHz 1 m 0 05 1 15 2 25 3 m 5 3 5 BE ARBs ae Y nes BAN m m b 5 3 6 300 15 30 795 AO 1 2 6 9810 9918 0310 0416 0418 0514 5 3 5
46. E 4 2 3 6 OCHS 2 3 4 a Kir CDL 2 8m F cm 500m 2 3 5 2 3 6
47. 38 36 136 138 140 5 3 7 3 500 5 3 6 500 fW AKERS FERRE BASE f Ri
48. 5 ki FE 6 2 2 1 1934 FEC 1942 1953 13 1959 TURK Lae EO RRS bE SLE COC 5 000 AOE l A LD 9 WT CLAUS CHS LEM 13 FAE FF
49. lt 350 300 e km 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 deg a 350 300 E e E 250 o uU amp R pH OE ET ET NE TE li c eco ied 150 K IR 100 50 0 930 940 950 960 970 980 hPa b 3 4 14
50. RE 2 4 8 c 1 BECHARA RAL b MUDE IEEE CH Be OE EB OD BUS 2 4 8 A
51. qc PI QUE 6 2 Oll 2 SS 1 0 O OED AW
52. 0 6km Hersbach and Janssen 1999 WAM B O J X REKER A RETR ELSE oo E SGW m 0 POR ll O En BE Hh R 1 4 4 6 9918 W 25 4 4 6 EK SGW 0 1m 0 2m
53. 2m 3 4 14 C KRAE CBM SVE RULED ORO es MS 4 2004 A B T 15 C FAD Em H 1 E ee R
54. 500 RL UT 5 3 3 980 hPa 42165 JA 9119 9918 38 36 a ale HE 34 32 Je 4216 9119 EK 409810 59918 J 604165 03105 n 1O 804185 90514 128 130 132 134 186 138 5 3 3 5 3 4 795 884 2 Myers L
55. 3 8 R 9918 LC 4 TRU IPCC
56. A 1 2 1 22 MIKI O
57. BRAS 2001 2002 1 3 T 1999 2004 2003 2005 INDOK 2 HR 2004 Ek
58. Fujii 2004 2004 2005 2006 2 YEE COR ABD EUM OM e 1 2 1 dt Ox 0M O M oe ot ox D Oy D ON LOO Ox pP x UNgD T E L D Ox Oy ON O MN O N Ot ox D OyV D Op D Op Oy p arte 4 SN SN 25 D Ox 7 M N x y ZA D r p DHE po Ar Tey y xy Zr npo IE AT has
59. WAM The WAMDI Group 1988 cycle 4 Janssen 1989 0 6 km 20s Hersbach Janssen 1999 4 4 2 MIRA 32 Janssen Cp 4 5 4 b 4 5 5 b Janssen 4 5 4 2 1m es Ee 4 5 5 5 c
60. 3 8m 2 4 11 OR 1 Bel 4m WER 2 b 2 4 11 E E 2 4 12
61. 6 C Myers Myers and Malkin 1961 aR p p apexp 2 3 2 1 r p p Ap
62. WZ 2 2 1 1 BORE 2
63. 2003 0314 2008 370km 80 1600 2000a 2000b 2000c 2001a 2001b 2004c 2005a 2006d Kawai et al 2004b 2007
64. HER ERME bOI tre WO Lich cm
65. 2003a 2003b 2004a 2004c 2006a 2007a 2007b Kawai etal 2004a 2005 4 2 1 PLA s ein 1 Myers DAETH E MM E AE 42 fi 2538 AC A ic b dem EE 3 2 2b U 3 2 2a2 0 6 RE ys Mu 3 2 3 ies Lukens die A 1 2000 0 6 9918
66. 3 5 1 2 m M S L m M S L m M S L E E dA E 6 12 18 0 6 1218 0 6 12 18 0 hr 9 22 9 23 9 24 a m M S L m M S L m M S L 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 hr 9 22 9 23 9 24 b 4 3 4 SI 4 3
67. 0 3s BRO RH XI 2000a 2000b MRI 9 24 5 2 2m 7 4s LAL 3 0m 9 0s W 0 42m WAM cycle 4 3m 5 5s
68. 1 DS 2 2009 11 12 WAM
69. 9810 5 4km 1 8km 0 2m 0 1m 1 8km 0 6km 3 3 9 b 2 5 a e 2 pode E 9 9 o Aik E 0 WA HH 15 A A c O IME AN o K I bg 0 5 0 mE gt 48 03105 981045 a a Jo e A A xc 9c AR nm 5g O HW MAS g 41 oat TE ur E 0 a 2 il amp S O 0 gt gt 1 148 i 48 03105 981045 b 3 3 10 9810 5 4km 0 6km 1
70. IPCC 4 FF H 3 Cu 1 2 1
71. 3 5 7 CHS 3 5 1 a 30 0 8m 3 5 6 1 D d 6 0 2m je 4m 1 2m OF a W 27 0 2m 10 c 9 0 3 5 7 3 5 1 a O A B C D MOOR
72. BECUL 2001c 5 4 4 0 25 5 4 3 500 130 E 135 E 140 E 145 E 45 N 127 5 E 31 0 N No 100 No 110 No 120 No 130 a fti 5 4 4 RES 5 4 5 BOR 3 5 4 5 3
73. 2 0416 8 H 30 H 12 4 6 4 Xii H l 4 6 3 1 25m s 2 PRM SGW SGW SGW 0418 PRM MM5 MASCON
74. O 3 6m X ABE ABB 2 08m 3m bL 3 5m KRET b FAS EM 3 0m
75. db O Xx ND PIECE ME DEM MEE 3 4 CMS 2 2 2 2 2 4 C D L 7 0m ELE 3 Sm EE 2m
76. BRE 1999 2002 8 Wo ui DN B mE 3 2 I I I i I I I 10 20 50 100 200 500 1000 8 7 a 0416 ee s 9 a O5 has E FE 4 3 2 I I i I I i 10 20 50 100 200 500 1000 5 3 11 6 i is BENT A E
77. D 0 6km 4 2 4 4 2 1 9918 SORE M NO WAM cycle 3 m amp 4 2 6 gt Qo al Qo Fa n ri lm l iE loco oV Li 4 2 5 AWA r3 ln HIJ T 1980 gt t D Jet n l B gt l 2622 1980 0 6km FTD Vg EN W 7 5 W 27 5 J i Wu 1982 PR a 3 2 10 JER cycle 4 9918 end Uae nh mj B b a dod CA LN l 10 it a gt MA Te TES THE d b ae 30 3 2
78. KET 2004a 2004b 2005b 2008b Kawai et al 2009 3 2 1
79. Myers 2 4 5 0 2m Sm 3 6m 2 4 6 a
80. MAS 1 MAS 2 IX MAS 1 SGW MAS 1 2 0416 4 6 1 A 4 6 4 25m s PRM SGW MM5 KORTE TS ED BBC 6 BLIV Cv S MAS 1 C BR xdv T RESP GS 535 OT
81. 9918 2000a 2000b 200039 2000 MBS 1999 2002 Kawai and Takemura 2002
82. HELD CHS SOE 3
83. 2005 2006 50
84. 4 4 5 SGW 7 5 ABR 2 5m 20 AB 0 68
85. 2 ae 5 Ocm 6
86. 4 MASCON
87. CHS 2 2 5 1 2 5 1 am
88. 3 2 1 3 9 15 21 3 Ae wien Te les dO cS dcl Ee 3 Qua Om 1 OS Windows Me Xp CPU Pentium III 1 0GHz IV 2 53 GHz 1 60 0111 0115 0117 0209 0310 0314
89. QE 3 1 2 3
90. __ 01234567 8 9101112 hr 1999 9 24 2 2 5 m C D L O GO CO PB OO OO OO RA 4 50 10 DEE TEC 5 3 C D L 42 3m CH 4m Abs 2 2 7 Im 3m 2m
91. 2004a 2005b 2008a Kawai et al 2007 Ue ale 2 2 1999 2004 RKE 1 9918 9918 1999 9 19 2 2 1 C 24 4 945hPa 40km h 66 2m s 8 RB 950 hPa SOkm h COR 1940 1999 60 9918 9119 5 4216 5 2 2 1
92. WAM cycle 4 4 2 5 Xij EH EL JF OD HR rx CL BIT 2 TRIB HER OO fs Re LEHR S 4 4 2 a b 2m SGW a c 3m c d e FO e
93. L 0 3 0 9 0 3 0 9 w WAEI O ERSA R 2000a 2000b 2001b 0 7 0 7 1 0 06 0 7 RR KRETE i E km
94. 27 4 X 3 4 2 12 24 48 72 4 3 4 2 lt 3 4 3 DELL Di
95. see ae AWA 7 0m 3 1m 3 9m BEBE 5 50 a e6 5 m CDL SE End 5 0 m C D L i 100m a P 200m 5 T 6 0 A A T As 55 7 0 re A IH H H EM Hes L imum H W L 4 0 3 1 DET th eS 4 2 7 43 2 b 4 ll b 2 2 4 PT iM a d NY kats Se mW rrr Eos gt EN D eS NC Coe 2 A PUT mae AO S a NL tat es NN 2 2 2 5 10 2
96. 2007a 2007b Myers Mitsuta Fuji 1987 Wis y c sep 2 et rief 2 2 p Tr CRES 3 5 2 p min f 100 1 3 5 3 P 3 d r Veli BMOVETRE pit Ap gt C C 2 3 k 2 5 X r ro X 71 2 CHO 1 2006b 2006c
97. 30 1951 30 1950 G B 5 5 Xem EC E
98. 4 4 3 4 4 4 a FR Cr C 0 7 Oii m OFRE SGW OX BH 0 3m Bic B O JR X A SGW EH SOW XXIX IR Nfre 35 SGW Nfre 25 5 E Hy INE i 0 DOD DD OD eO pd d WY Aj E 4 4 3
99. fNOAA Ocean Springs 3 5m 3 7m 0 5m DRY PSR GRE O ALO BAe Ze EARE EL A CRWMAICLAZbDEARUTERY 100km ARW 15 4m 14s AD 30km 5 6m 14s a 2005 8 29 RIZR l i XN 4 b 2 4 6
100. KBR 0 1m CHS 30 0 1m 0 4 1 3 3 11
101. 20093 lt Powell et al 2003 Zhang et al 2006 2009b 6 6 1 3
102. 1992 1 5m 2 5m 3 5 4m 1997a 5 3 10 5 3 11 ieiunii B 5 3 3 5 3 8 0 4m
103. 5 4 1 134 5 33 5 30 800km 300 km 38 28 E A ll l 126 128 130 132 134 136 138 140 142 144 5 4 1 16 2km 5 4 2 970hPa 1 301 W 1 399 2 5 3 5 4 2 1 8km 3 5 4 3 500 KB RHE THRE
104. Zu ARIT Clk IPCC OT ZEA SS SEY IV CORR EK
105. c OME Debris OMB VBE DS ASH PRR ae UTS 1959 FOP AE GUC LS mills p 3 1959 3 3 5
106. 2004 1 2 3m 1959 5914 JR Sarah 5914 FOR 5914 0314 end EXE CI RAS BHU HRES 2 3 2 OAA TH okey KIA 40km 30km amp AAO KIBO 20m 25m
107. 2003 D Jm lt Lal INDICAT ARK 2003
108. 902hPa Gilbert 888hPa 4 RitaJ Wilma 6 920hPa 4 1935 1969 3 2 4 2 ER y Y 4 Betsy amp Y 3 7v Camille CHO che I Am Cd 1965 1969 G 2 4 1 Betsy Camille Katrina Rita 2 4 2 JE 40
109. No 586 II 42 pp 77 92 2001 Wave Setup 48 pp 286 290 2002 Wave Setup No 719 II 61 pp 47 61 1998 37 3 pp 3 30 2006 26p 2000a 9918 No 973 2000b 1999 18 Vol 85 11 pp 67 70 2002
110. 3 1 2 BETED BUA IC FE OVE REIT 2003 X m D 2003
111. 5 2 1 5 2 1 I TWH UR mah d
112. RANAL GPV Grid Point Value GPV X 20km CHD DT AR GPV LE MMS 1992 1997 KD 2001 KI 2005 2006 Ohsawa 2006
113. EP 8 V Db
114. km 0 75 0 95 JAD HE 1 30 4 3 4 4 3 5 Ci C 0 7 SGW SGW 18 20 22 0 1999 9 24 9 24 6 10 3 4 7
115. 2 4 12 BE TIBS 2 5 1 ocv ed ES I1 eU
116. Im 2 2 12 9918 20 106 9119 9918 9918 hoquccu5S Com SD ES CU WALD Tm lt OCI T Foy 7 CORRE SIUC 72 ERB HHOMWUH LEI TZA KEDER 2000a 2000b Takahashi et
117. 1 8 2 3 5 1 ee 2008 70 24 125km 48 250km 1 a P 2 gr 1 3 5 1 e o o o o o B o e Set FERREIS Pd DAP o 90 009 0 o A o e i S e os 6 Ez 1 9 o 9 9 o pecu te r e e e 9 e o e oe o NM e D e o o e 3 5 2 3 5 1
118. b 3 3 4 9810 2 1 5 E HY IME i 1 5 c 3 QE 05 lE o 0 5 1 E 05 HY IME i 0 0 5 0 3 6 9 12151821 O 3 6 9 12151821 1998 10 17 hr 1998 10 18 3 3 5 9810 A 2 5 0310 9810 2 HH Ine liii K net 10 9810 E m 19 6 G mr Ur HH o ine Le H a mE jE S e K net xi L B8 X A wE X its u 3 3 6
119. E EZME QS X se B de 50 ike AYR A 1999 DE 46 pp 916 920 2004 MRI RCM20 2004 p 145 die WO
120. 2008 KE RS mW e KOCH BIRO ASE 4 4 1 f nr ee
121. 5 5m Im o NA Re eae a ee ot 37 ier EAN ER x eS am ea man pig Y t Y 4 N A m c 2 4 8 3 2 4 8 b A 2 4 8
122. 1 8km DOL Signe el CPU Intel Core 2 Duo CPU E6850 3 00GHz 1 60 9 109 ACHR 18 1 a d 1 Max 109 2 9 Max OACEF Max OABCD O 2e Min 109 m m 0 ap dE BP RE d e DD ap a D gL EM dp a amp zn dp UM OW ED ED X Ld XS db dE XP KO R i E n g 3 5 3 1 2 3 5 3 1 3 5 1 0 a
123. 1 3 1 6 2 3 WEL 4 5 4 6 X 10 1 000 10 0 5m Im 100 1m FAS ARIS 3m 1 000 I
124. 49 AE pp 931 935 2003 No 1042 27p 2006 53 7 pp 411 415 Eu SE BR 2004 0314 51 pp 1371 1373 1990 37 pp 873 877 2000 9918 vol 85 March pp 41 45 2007 Vol 23 pp 123 128
125. G 6 9918 0314 5 0416 3
126. GPV MASCON 2 6 2 RANAL 1996 LT 4 6 1 6 0416 0418 0514 0613 38 36 34 32
127. 2 BK WiL TEBO ae ct me b 2 4 1 17th Street Canal a 2 4 2 17th Street Canal 1 2km 2 4 2 1 2km 2 4 1 c 2 4 2 b 2 2 2 66m 1 KASS 4 ERUCREE
128. 0418 L BAAS IRV SAL 2 3 0314 1 0314 0314 5 Maemi iX 2003 9 6 16 BE 0 141 30 9 11 910hPa 3 2003 2 3 1 9 12 920hPa 2 3 2 Choi 2004 Kang et al 2004 CHH b 700m WRL
129. Mitsuta and 1987 MUL OASIS GPT AERA RAYA YY Seales 1986 MASCON Sasaki 1958 1970a 1970b Sherman 1978 MASCON CoR 5 60 645 5 43 Lo AX SER IZRSREU RV MASCON L 1993 1992 1993
130. Ek niu CRD PAK BEDS HAVE TAZ EC E REL
131. 9810 0310 31 0310 5 D 31 5 33 1 8 km 1 4 3 4 2004 0 3 3 2004 3 4 1 9 1 24 7 32 AWE 3
132. 9670 p 94 89b e A 3 4 3 3 4 14 0418 9 6 9 OF ED Wet J ES 3 4 13 3 4 3 OH A 3 4 3 40 1 CPU
133. MMS PRM SGW MMS 4 6 3 MM5 MAS 1 MAS 2 MAS 1 MMS 4 4 6 5 0416 PRM SGW SGW X MMS 4 6 5 0416 MM5 MAS 1 2 SGW
134. 9918 4516 9119 9918 SOR 9119 1959 9 28 29 SIBI 10H 13 14 11 1 2 ER 2 2 1 2 2 1 Ges w 2000 2000 2 9918 T 2 2 2
135. fi E WS B MU i 1 5 o1 1 25 DOM 1 n 0 75 0 75 a Cjr 0 7 KR T I ons fii gt FPE T as d 8 T AS id Ir P 4 AR d o wA 2d Mv s 4 z A x d 0 75 c BA SGW A bY T la EB OV AY VS s ey AN X ux Lar fe A oa a H B T P 4 1 25 ne e Nu ud UV mA K b SGW n t _ By li Lf I Lj ve A ai Ie un 463 d E ts j A YA in v p n Oo xv Bu N T ua J 919 d SGW KN Ds CE pais a us T 4 P 425 d ih 3 pid m e 0 75 rJ e WM 25 4 4 4 Ns 35 0 5m WAM 25 1m 35
136. 2 2 Tae Te y DE M 1 2 2 Ta PaCo W Wy 1 2 4a Toy paCpW W W 1 2 4b ry e MVM N 1 2 5a D 2 77 NAM e 1 2 5b Wo x yI n Maning 0 023 Cp 1980 1996 1998 b WS OE 2001 2002 m HH KOCH 2001
137. 3 1 1 TEL 046 844 5040 URL http www pari go jp Copyright 2010 by PARI All rights reserved No part of this book must be reproduced by any means without the written permission of the President of PARI
138. b Ikm HAH c a b 2 EVE ZNZ R o THE ZORD FE
139. MASCON PIN eC es 4 7 2 A PRM SGW Oo MAS 1 MAS 2 Bie 2 OE 0 5 MM5 AT m 0 5 8 0 0 0 DD O O 0 0 0 DD O O O bt O 0 O 1 T9709 T0410 T0416 T0418 10514 T0613 4 6 7 Lk MASCON
140. e SGW f Nie 25 4 4 2 WASM WAve and Storm surge Model ORS 4 3 5 SGW WAM cycle 4 60s 4s 2min
141. 4 5 6 NAO99b Matsumoto et al 2000 A D 4 5 7 4 5 8 3 A B 2 C D Pe dA e 0 2 2 m s l E11 ne EE 0 1 2 ET 1 nel EE 0 1 10 11 12 13 14 day 4 5 7 5 4
142. CHS Myers Myers and Malkin 1961 Fujita 1952 2 2000 KR wed 2
143. E AK x 0 0 5 1 1 5 2 2 5 m 4 6 6 0416 fi 4 6 6 0416 4 6 1 PRM MMS 4 6 7 X MMS PRM SGW MAS 1 2 0418 4 6 Ele DUO Erne cuu ce dlc qeu
144. 0 5m LA 5 4 10 10 4 6 10 1 000 3 e e e 2 e e e e e e d 0A 09687 A e 5 A ee E 4 4 4 HU A INE EE 3 E K o 2 af AA ney 1 a ioe 4 3 2 L_ 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 hr 5 4 9 5 4 e MER 2 6 AA oe Ao ak A Eia a AB A mu 4 A 4a A A A A jE ha Ran AA AA Da A IX 3 Ea DA Y ED E 3 Av AGO 2 6 5 Og 4 3 2 hr 5 4 10
145. 5 4 9 AH ET 3m 1 2 6 gt RR H AR x x ERS E 4 IME A HE 3 E X a K2 lt nie A 2 ic 0 1 I 10 20 90 100 200 900 1000 5 4 7 9 Aa 8 x m 2 lI TI 10 20 50 100 200 500 1000 5 4 8 2m ex Gow dae
146. 5 3 12 6 5 3 1 0 955 09 0 5hr 1 3 07hr 14 0 8 224 14 0 5Smx 73 546 9 15 5 Yan 0 5 35 24 3 4 1 4 m lur 2 K UE 1 o 0 2 4 6 8 100 2 4 6 8 10 hr 5 3 14 6 d e E 4 H m JE 3 TE ee 2 0 2 4 6 810120 2 4 6 8 10 12 hr 5 3 15 5 4 5 3 1 500
147. 2001 1995a 2003 2007 1 2 BRICOVY TIL C
148. 5 4 E E E i 3 AROR LL Ke m t f bi 2 L 1 he 0 i 10 20 50 100 200 500 1000 5 0416 dd 3 IDE H 1 0 i iT i f f f f 10 20 50 100 200 500 1000 5 3 9 6 a 30 10 3 5 4m DED 5 3 10
149. o 9810 c 0 6km PEND A 3 3 7 0310 Z
150. m 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 0 3 6 9 12 15 9 12 9 13 Onley hr 4 5 8 9 12 H 4 Fio 11 CDL 4 3m 4 0m 4 5 9 KEL X 21 20 1 5 NS OHO E One jun EX WM os it o 0 12 15 18 21 24 h 9 12
151. 940hPa 80km h CH 0416 d Gumbel 1 ME 2 3 3 33 5 10 Weibull k 0 75 1 1 4 2 Weibull k 1 4 2 00 Gumbel MIR 1989 5 3 8 10 1000 10 lm 1 5m 100 KRET 1 5m b 2m 1000 1 5m DLE
152. IPCC 42 1981 2000 2081 2100 2004 2005 1 5 3 2 c 123 126 129 132 135 138 141 144 a 1951 2000 50 123 126 129 132 135 138 141 144 c 5 3 2 hPa 5 10hPa
153. LAL 0 qv WEG 0 0 E Td Ine ior pun K 0 TEGERE GIES cO CN CO noD Mon M eee 0310 9810 a _ mn Er ES i e d Be g 9 Ai G2 8 i 3A Wa EE S ATARI X WE LI 3 TEE E g O g Ke A 8 4 ng amp S FO CN
154. 3 184 2 4 3 2 1 0 D 0 2 3 3 6 0310 Ld n ua 0310 S Cla
155. 1 SHAT SZEDCHS t DIED OD gt N N ca TE EN EE i RR 5 2 1 2003 NW 5 2 1 2003 4g ft 30 100 eee tmm AWARE LB om
156. 4 5 2 2 4 5 2 4 4 1980 4 5 4 a 4 5 5 0 6m 0 7m 1 6m 2 3m COC CC CC CC SS a a a a a a a a a m aa a b MASCON 4 5 3 2003 9 12 H 21
157. 109 Max 109 F 2m 4 Max OACEE Max OABCD Max 109 O Max OACEF Max OABCD Min 109 109 3 5 4 3 5 3 ORTIZ 0 3m 3 3 5 b a X 1 3 5 1 Da
158. No 387 II 8 2000 9918 No 970 33p 2001 48 pp 456 460 2003 F504 pp 176 180 2005 52 pp 1221 1223 2002 49 28 pp 926 930 2001 76 B45 pp 203 206 SEL SER yl gh 48 2000a 9918 cc
159. 5 3 D SUE 5 3 1 5 3 1 v iot
160. b Po DU T SD Sen AIL wwe DRAWSKO X0 LwT tbtvwviWe m5 MEE sx ATH 7 SS W 4 Cg j 9 ATA n Pl a SS e cP J LXX gt ELO Ex P e P y 509 lt EL gt Sc KI C La Go Lives c 3 E 5 m i S D j A ANN SS sa rs E31 7 TJ gt lt 2 4 7 AFVIABBEORKRKUOEED http www gimaps fema gov 2005graphics dr1603 la ms al pop 090305 pdf C JN 2 4 7 2
161. No 972 19p 2000b 9918 47 A pp 306 310 2005 0314 44 2 pp 23 37 1986 29 B 1 pp 229 239 1980 27 pp 90 93 B BPS 2008 63 CD ROM pp 305 306 2004
162. 2000c 9918 47 3 pp 311 315 2001a 76 4 pp 69 73 2001b 9918 76 4 pp 87 92 RR RKB Zs FAR 2001c 48 pp 301 305 2002 49 pp 251 255 2003a 42 3 pp 85 110 2003b SENZ LAA 9918 50 pp 296 300
163. Ek 2 2 11 2 C 200m 4 8m 9119 BO 9918 2 2 12 X 2 2 10 L 2 2 11 2 2 12 0418 2 2 14 2 2 15
164. 1 4 1 65m 500 700m Bf 3 9 4 2m WS 2004 2005 2 4 1 2005 8 29 Katrina 920hPa FAVA Vy Coie ee LIE ui 2 4 1 rH 80 gt Tv 2 4 1 2005 10 26 29
165. Z RAD E shed 0 6 0 7 LOADS 9918 2 WAM The WAMDI Group 1988 Komen et al 1994 Du 045750 DD GO LAP Cio cycle 4 200 WAM OE 8 6 E I utt gy o Oa ER D ae By Eh aa e 0 Z GE 5 4 2 1 7 E oc 0
166. 2 2 9 ag Cla 8 6 8m km 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 20 40 W BK Si ise x 60 G o j Q O 100 ERBA 120 140 2 2 11 5 4 E T9918 B lt T9119 T9119 IK 0 1 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 1 2 2 12 4 9918 2 3 9918 2 2 11
167. C 3 5 3 A Ap C Ap C 0 66 3 5 1 HDA SGW 4 3 2 SGW a b 4 3 3
168. CAVE WW 3 3 53 4 HRA
169. ehh III III hh nnn 50 Duo del SR es asses pad ades edu Tu Pec V EPI eee NUR e Saee die edd s ds 54 4 ee eee n 54 T Ll ME TUE 54 4 2 e III IIIA Ihn 55 i3 ch m m X P EOD VOR dedubepebes9erer9e eerperpeper AS PPP POPPPORP PU 58 4 4 9918 ee 63 ED ED END ME RE I CE EE 66 4 6 III 69 4 7 73 5 n KH III III 73 A C MAU 73 5 2 IIIA 74 5 3 IRI 75 5 4 g2 535 SORIA ae e aA a a aoa E 86 KOTE Sare EE A E A E E E E E E E EA g9 6 90 See ERUNT 90 6 2 amp 450 e oe hh hh hh hh hh hh Ih hh hh hh hh hh hh nnn 91 Improvement in Storm Surge Numerical Models for Coastal Disaster Mitigation under Climate Change UE Hiroyasu Kawai Synopsis Since the great storm su
170. 40 2 4 3 Gulfport 5m km Lake Ponchartrain Lake Borsne 5m Orleans Parish 160km 2 4 3 m AH 50 70 Jefferson Parish
171. 400 60 0416 200 10 b Av 5 3 12 HS A 5 3 9 Bl 5 3 9 B 5 3 11
172. 5 4 11 zc 1000 nena 5 4 11 10 1000 100 0 5m 2005 2 5 4 8 c EEL
173. m E m E m E m 1218 0 6 12 18 O 6 1218 0 6 12 8H 29H 8 30 8 31 9 1 3 4 5 0416 A E 5 B C IRRE D 72 8 30 9 A WA B D
174. 5 WAM cycle 4 9918 9918 4 2 1 L 4 2 2 32 4km 1 8km CH 5 4 2 3
175. 0315 CAD S K 36 34 124 126 128 130 132 134 136 138 140 142 144 3 2 2 1 5 CEP amd m E Me 05 mE i 9 07 77 0 5 m 2 Wir JE MSL id 05 mE A 0 IK 0 3 6 9 12 15 1821 0 3 6 9 12 15 z B shania ral 3 2 3 8 9 3 2 2 0117 0209 0314 0315 0310 2003 8 8 15 Bd 3 2 3
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202. 2005a 2004 16 52 pp 1326 1330 200b 2004 16 No 1104 27p 2006 53 3 pp 1286 1290 2000 47 pp 271 273 2003 50 4 pp 201 205 2003 NEW No 3 pp 73 76 1987
203. 51 pp 1366 1370 1993a 8 42 4 pp 316 320 1995b 14 2 2002 EDHE 49 248 pp 256 260 2001 9918 48 pp 291 295 4x EE 2004 51 2 pp 1241 1245 2007 54 pp 311 316
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208. 2007d 54 pp 301 303 2008a B 6 1 B 6 20 2008b 55 A pp 311 313 2009a Vol 25 pp 163 168 2009b 56 A 2003 16 CD X Z JT 2008 http www data jma go jp fcd yoho typ kensho typ hyoka top html 2008 3 21 4 amp 2004 9918 51 pp 236 240
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212. cg Cy Cy co BOIS S 5 S B E 4 2 3 B Janssen 1989 1991 quasi linear KATER SN DWE Wage Wage U C 4 2 4 ag c f Keo M Cp 2 Cp 4 2 5 s STER Ga Se 4 2 5b T g Tt T T p 2a fy E f 0 cos 0 p dfao 4 2 5c Of k 10m zo a g y w Janssen 1991 4 2 2 5
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242. 002 15 2 339p 2003 507 pp 291 295 1997a 36 75 3 pp 3 41 1997b T 13 pp 579 584 1999 7 pp 321 326 2000 9918 47 pp 321 323 2000b 9918 No 971 43p
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250. ISSN1346 7840 ye en gU 2 S rye fil HAY EX TECHNICAL NOTE OF THE PORT AND AIRPORT RESEARCH INSTITUTE No 1210 March 2010 Independent Administrative Institution Port and Airport Research Institute Japan HREY edd oe e ee ee EEEE EEE oe meon a n hoe RC RO E e donee 3 MES occ 5 1 1 JgtZeod EEBHE ee X n hh eee ee ee ee ee eee Hh hh hh hn 5 1 2 X HII III I 5 1 3 eh III hh hn 6 2 4 c 4c 3c RR III 7 AMETE m 7 2 2 1999 2004 III 7 2 3 0314 Rz A5SEEIBEERO HE III hn 17 2 4 WY DRY HF ITEAK EXIT TIBI ED BH UBER f eee eee eens 22 2 5 ur ped S CAO Se OE OBE dereeseseme yi a de cesi ar a eq oes 31 3 crrrrrrererrrrererereres 33 9 AS NE EE EEE EE GEE Oe CHE d Ra CEN CE a ek quu id 35 C EI TAS i EOILITR D LILLLLILLI OLLI eem 34 3 9 BOE EPIS TUBE RET Oa mes Ss Steep ee ene geet tossed E 37 3 4 2004 e IRR III 44 3 5
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253. al Cyclone Bogussing Scheme for the MMS Sys tem Preprint The Eleventh PSU NCAR Mesoscale Model Users Workshop June 25 27 2001 Boulder Colorado pp 130 134 Matsumoto K Takanezawa T and Ooe M 2000 Ocean Tide Models Developed by Assimilating TOPEX PO SEIDON Altimeter Data into Hydrodynamical Model A Global Model and a Regional Model around Japan Journal of Oceanography 56 pp 567 581 Mitsuta Y and T Fujii 1987 Analysis and Synthesis of Typhoon Wind Pattern over Japan Bulletin Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University Vol 37 Part 4 No 329 pp 169 185 Myers V A and Malkin W 1961 Some Properties of Hurricane Wind Fields as Deduced from Trajectories U S Weather Bureau National Hurricane Research Project Report 49 Ohsawa T T Nakano K Matsuura and K Hayashi 2006 Introduction of a JMA type Typhoon Bogus Scheme into MMS to Improve Hindcasting of Coastal Sea Surface Winds The Forth International Symposium on Computational Wind Engineering Journal of Wind Engineering Vol 31 No 3 pp 193 196 Powell M D P J Vickery and T A Reinhold 2003 Reduced Drag Coefficient for High Wind Speeds in Tropical Cyclones Nature Vol 422 pp 279 283 Sasaki Y 1958 An Objective Analysis Based on the Variational Method J Meteor Soc Japan 36 77 88 Sasaki Y 1970a Some Basic Formulisms in Numerical Variational Analysis Mon Wea Rev 98 875 883 Sasaki Y 1970b Num
254. del with the wind field was coupled with astronomical tide and wave models for the precise description of storm surge phenomena 3 The methodology of evaluating extreme storm surges with a stochastic typhoon model was disussed Then the return period of the current design storm water level was evaluated under the current and future climates Key Words storm surge numerical model Typhoon Vera marine surface wind design storm water level climate change Deputy Director Marine Information Division Marine Environment and Engineering Department 3 1 1 Nagase Yokosuka 239 0826 JAPAN Phone 81 46 844 5048 Fax 81 46 842 5246 E mail kawai pari go jp http www pari go jp bsh ky skb ks jyo kaisy index htm ze Ei HAO iil iy BERE Cit 1959 FAE But O riii fi Ze S BETE 1999 2004
255. eg gt Qo Lie 4 65z 5T 5JR x El 2 b jr Li OF jm C5 0 6 D ZI km m e Ci O 0 7 Ci C2 0 6 0 12 14 16 18 20 22 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 0 1999 9 23 hp 1999 9 24 4 2 4 OA 4 2 5 X ARIE OxiHcu 2 1m 1 2m 2000a 2000b 0 2km CWS
256. erical Variational Analysis Formu lated under the Constraints as Determined by Longwave Equations and a Low pass Filter Mon Wea Rev 98 884 899 Sherman C A 1978 A Mass consistent Model for Wind Fields over Complex Terrain J Appl Meteor 17 pp 312 319 Takahashi S H Kawai and T Takayama 2002 Storm Surge Disaster by Typhoon No 9918 Performance De sign of Coastal Defense Proceeding of the Solutions to Coastal Disasters Conference 2002 ASCE San Di ego pp 735 749 The WAMDI Group 1988 The WAM model A Third Generation Ocean Wave Prediction Model J Phys Oceanogr Vol 18 pp 1775 1810 Veltcheva A D i145 54 28 2002 pp 241 245 Veltcheva A and H Kawai 2002 Investigation of the Typhoon Pressure and Wind Field with Application for Storm Surge Estimation Report of Port and Airport Re search Institute Vol 41 No 2 pp 23 44 Wu J 1982 Wind stress Coefficients over Sea Surface from Breeze to Hurricane Journal of Geophysical Re search No 87 C12 pp 9704 9706 Zhang W W Perrie and W Li 2006 Impact of Waves and Sea Spray on Mid latitude Storm Structure and Intensity Monthly Weather Review AMS Vol 134 pp 2418 2442 No 1210 2010 3 SEHR A
257. i Veltcheva and Kawai 2002 Veltcheva 2002 NE pasz ORB a 9918 LT SGW 9918 Ek 0314 kee MA Te
258. jii 1987 1 BHT MASCON SGW MASCON 4 6 2 C 1 5skm L 60 MAS 1 1 10 MAS 2 ESAE MMS 20 km RANAL MMS Low Nam and Davis 2001 Ohsawa et al 2006 ee
259. m 4m 5 4 7 3m 3 5m 3m 2 1 m 100 1 000 1000 5 4 6 10 1 000 5 4 8 5 4 7 CDL ELT ORMOND I 5 1m 5 9m 4 8m 5 0 95
260. rge disaster due to Typhoon Vera in 1959 the Japanese Government has been constructed coastal defense with the design storm water level including the storm surge of the typhoon or the local highest wa ter level record Severe storm surge disater however repeated in 1999 and 2004 The global mean sea level rise and tropical cyclone intensification due to climate change may increase the frequency of severe storm surge disas ter The deep understanding of recent disasters and the preparedness for unexpected disaster are quite important for future disaster mitigation Storm surge numerical models should be applied more effectively to three chances 1 quick prediction at the time of the approach of a typhoon 2 hindcasting just after the disaster and 3 discussion on the safety degree of coastal defense in usual days This paper therefore started with the lessons learned from recent storm surge disasters in Japan Korea and the United States and then improved three types of storm surge numerical models 1 A suitable computational condition was selected for the quick prediction of the storm surge at ports at the time of the approach of a typhoon and then the model was applied to several typhoons Stochastic storm water level prediction was also examined 2 The marine surface wind field was caluculated with a good precison by modifying an empirical typhoon model or introducing the meso scale meteorological model Then the storm surge numerical mo
261. to and K Matsuura 2006 Im provement of Stochastic Typhoon Model for the Purpose of Simulating Typhoons and Storm Surges under Global Warming Proceedings of the 30th International Confer ence on Coastal Engineering ICCE2006 Vol 2 pp 1838 1850 Kawai H S Takahashi T Hiraishi N Hashimoto and K Matsuura 2007 Lessons Learned from Recent Storm Surge Disasters and Estimation of Extreme Tidal Levels for Coastal Defense Performance by Using Stochastic Typhoon Model Proceeding of ISOPE2007 pp 1792 1799 Kawai H N Hashimoto and K Matsuura 20082 Estima tion of Extreme Storm Water Level in Japanese Bays by Using Stochastic Typhoon Model and Tide Observation Data Proceeding of 18th International Offshore and Po lar Engineering Conference ISOPE2008 Vol 3 pp 497 504 Kawai H N Hashimoto and K Matsuura 2008b Estima tion of Extreme Storm Surge and Its Duration in Japa nese Bays by Using Stochastic Typhoon Model Pro ceedings of 31th International Conference on Coastal Engineering Poster paper in printing Kawai H N Hashimoto and M Yamashiro 2009 Real time Probabilistic Prediction of Storm Water Level at Japanese Ports Proceedings of the Nineteenth 2009 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Confer ence ISOPE2009 pp 784 791 Komen GJ et al 1994 Dynamics and modelling of ocean waves Cambridge University Press Low Nam S and C Davis 2001 Development of a Tropic
262. y vol 19 pp 745 754 Janssen P A E M 1991 Quasi linear Theory of Wind Wave Generation Applied to Wave Forecasting Journal of Physical Oceanography vol 21 pp 1631 1642 Kang Y K T Tomita D S Kim and S M Ahn 2004 Characteristics of Flood Damage by Storm Surge and High Waves in Southeast Coast Area during Typhoon Maemi Attack J5 MIARA HEA tN sl ay ya S St AFNA 573 Waves and Storm Surges around Korean Peninsula pp 35 43 Kawai H 2000 Variation of Sliding Failure Probability of Breakwater Caisson due to Global Warming Journal of Global Environment Engineering JSCE Vol 6 pp 65 80 Kawai H and S Takemura 2002 Simultaneity of Maxi mum Storm Surge and Wave Caused by Typhoon in To kyo Bay Japan Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Coastal Engineering ICCE2002 Vol 1 pp 1216 1228 Kawai H K Kawaguchi and N Hashimoto 2004a Development of Storm Surge Model Coupled with Wave Model and Hindcasting of Storm Waves and Surges Caused by Typhoon 9918 ISOPE2004 No 2004 NM 09 SD Kawai H T Tomita T Hiraishi D S Kim and Y K Kang 2004b Hindcasting of Storm Surge by Typhoon 0314 Maemi Workshop on Waves and Storm Surges around Korean Peninsula pp 67 73 Kawai H D S Kim Y K Kang T Tomita and T Hiraishi 2005 Hindcasting of Storm Surges in Korea by Ty phoon 0314 Maemi Proceedings of ISOPE2005 vol 3 pp 446 453 Kawai H N Hashimo
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