MIGRATION ESTIMATES - USER'S GUIDE -
Contents
1. DIVISIONS CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREAS INTRODUCTION This report presents migration estimates by census division CD and or by census metropolitan area CMA Five year comparisons as shown on our printed standard tables enable users to see the pattern of movement by Canadians as well as immigration and emigration flows to and from Canada The data tables are updated on a yearly basis Migration estimates by CMA are available since 1992 93 SECTION THE DATA Data Source The migration estimates are derived from a comparison of addresses from individual income tax returns for two consecutive years The period of reference extends from April of one year to April of the following year A summary of the methodology is provided later in this document For the most current data release in September 2008 migration data for 2006 2007 were derived by comparing addresses supplied on personal income tax returns filed in the spring of 2006 and 2007 Timeliness Migration estimates are available by census division from 1976 77 and by census metropolitan area from 1992 93 Preliminary data on international migration and final data on internal migration are normally available from 15 to 18 months after the income tax deadline Revised final data on international migration are produced 12 to 15 months after the preliminary data Note that only the international portion of the migration figures is subject to revision The international migrat2. be communicated to all users of the data product The Licensee shall not transfer this data product to or store the data product in any electronic network for use by more than three 3 regular users unless the Licensee obtains prior written permission from Statistics Canada and pays any additional fees The Licensee shall not lend rent lease sublicense transfer or sell any part of the data product nor any right granted under this agreement to any person outside the licensed organization or to any other organization The Licensee shall not disassemble decompile or in any way attempt to reverse engineer any software provided as part of the data product The Licensee shall not use any part of the data product to develop or derive any other data product or data service for external distribution or commercial sale The Licensee is granted reasonable rights of use of the content of this data product only for personal corporate or public policy research as well as for educational purposes This permission includes the use of the content in analyses and in the reporting of results and conclusions including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from the data product in such documents In such cases the source of the data must be acknowledged in all such documents and communications by providing the following source citation at the bottom of each table and graph Source or Adapted from if appropriate Statistics Ca
3. migration remain unchanged Each of the above estimates is identified in tables by the letters P preliminary and R revised final SECTION Il THE DATA TABLES Number of Tables There are five standard data tables The first four tables provide a five year comparison of migration while the fifth one is based on a two year period Table A By Province of Origin Destination Table B By Age Group Table C By Type of Migration and Gender Table D Flows by Census division of Origin Destination or by CMA non CMA of Origin Destination Table E Median Income of Migrant Taxfilers Note A five year comparison is not always possible for census divisions due to boundary changes over time This five year comparison was not possible for Quebec nor for some census divisions in British Columbia due to major census division boundary changes beginning in 1992 93 and based on 1991 census divisions and again in 1996 97 based on 1996 census divisions For these areas comparable data are provided according to the old boundaries up to and including 1991 92 or 1995 96 and according to the new boundaries since 1996 97 The 2001 2002 migration data are based on the 2001 Census boundaries Starting with the 2006 2007 data the boundaries of the CD CMA are based on the 2006 Census boundaries Data Table Contents Table A By Census Division or Census Metropolitan Area of Origin and of Destination Each page of this table highlights flows in
4. out and net flows for a specific province a specific census division CD or any one of the 34 census metropolitan areas CMAs including non CMA areas for each province Provincial totals provided include intraprovincial migration Tables B and C Age Group Type of Migration and Gender Both Tables B and C list in out and net migration for the highlighted CD or CMA for a five year period Table B shows migration by age group while Table C shows migration by type interprovincial intraprovincial and international and by gender Provincial totals provided include intraprovincial migration Table D Flows by Census Division Census Metropolitan Area of Origin Destination Table D gives details of the flows for a particular CD or CMA A list is given of the CDs or CMAs with which the selected CD or CMA exchanged any people The flows are ranked in the table by net migration The flows for the past five years are shown on the printed tables though the ranking is according to the most recent period Table E By Census Division Census Metropolitan Area of Origin Destination by Median Income of Migrant Taxfilers For each CD or CMA Table E gives details on the median income of migrant taxfilers The first part of the table shows the number of taxfilers leaving their CD CMA by province of destination their median income for the year before the move and their median income for the year of the move The second half of the table shows the n
5. A reference table was established relating an estimate of the average number of dependents by age group and gender to filers in a given age gender marital status total personal exemption class This table was produced each year using a sample file of taxfilers containing information on the exact number of dependents and their relationship to the filer in addition to the characteristics of the filer Other demographic information such as gender ratios and the age distributions of husbands and wives were also used to distribute dependents by age and gender The current system uses the estimation of taxfilers dependents from the T1 family file T1FF The family system creates families by linking all filing family members together and estimates non filing members from information on the taxfilers returns based on 1 See report Description of the Methodology Used to Create Migration Data from Tax Records updated by Judy Reid Small Area and Administrative Data Division February 1998 such information as deductions tax credits for dependents For example the family system imputes a non filing soouse wherever a filer has declared him herself married but was not linked with a filing spouse Step 3 Migrant Taxfilers and Dependents The main source file used contains the basic demographic and geographic information on each taxfiler and dependent and covers approximately 96 of the total population The migrant taxfilers are identified by
6. MIGRATION ESTIMATES USER S GUIDE Statistics Canada Product 91C0025 Extracts from these statistical data may be reproduced for individual use without permission provided the source is fully acknowledged Users are not authorized to transfer or redistribute any part or version of these data in any medium whether it be in their original form or ina modified form except as approved under a distribution agreement with STATISTICS CANADA The prior written permission of STATISTICS CANADA is required for any other form of publication or distribution Use of these data is acknowledgment that the user will be bound by the terms of the data licensing agreement which forms part of this documentation see next page Small Area and Administrative Data Division Statistics Canada saadinfo statcan ca September 2008 Aussi disponible en francais End use Licence Agreement Copyright The Government of Canada Statistics Canada is the owner or a licensee of all intellectual property rights including copyright in this data product With your payment of the requisite fee you hereinafter reterred to as the Licensee are granted a non exclusive non assignable and non transferable licence to use this data product subject to the terms below This licence is not a sale of any or all of the rights of the owner s Terms of use 1 All copyright and proprietary notices as well as all conditions of use associated with the data product must
7. ages salaries commissions Other employment income as reported on line 104 of the tax form tips gratuities royalties etc 12 Net self employment Indian Employment Income New in 1999 Employment Insurance El benefits Pension income Old Age Security net federal supplements the latter including the Guaranteed Income Supplement and Spouses Allowance since 1994 Canada Quebec Pension Plan Superannuation and other private pensions Federal Family Allowance benefits up to and including 1992 Quebec Family Allowance beginning with 1994 British Columbia Family Bonus beginning with 1996 New Brunswick Child Benefit Supplement beginning with 1997 Alberta Family Employment Tax Credit beginning with 1997 Northwest Territories Child Benefit beginning with 1998 Nova Scotia Child Tax Benefit beginning with 1998 Nunavut Child Benefit beginning with 1998 Ontario Child Care Supplement for Working Families beginning with 1998 Saskatchewan Child Benefit beginning with 1998 Newfoundland and Labrador Child Benefit beginning with 1999 Yukon Child Benefit beginning with 1999 Interest and other investment income Dividend income RRSP income since 1994 previously in other income since 1999 taxfilers 65 only Net limited partnership income included in other income Alimony included in other income Net rental income included in other income Income for non filing spouses since 1992 included in other income Other inco
8. areas It is obtained by adding the number of in migrants to the number of out migrants Index Is a comparison of the variable for the given area with either the province province 100 or with Canada Canada 100 Immigration Movement to an area in Canada from another country In migration Movement to a census division or census metropolitan area from elsewhere inside or outside Canada Internal migration Movement between two census divisions or census metropolitan areas within Canada Internal migration is divided in two categories interprovincial and intraprovincial migration International migration Movement between an area in Canada and another country International migration is divided in two categories immigration and emigration 11 Interprovincial migration Movement between census divisions or census metropolitan areas located in two different provinces The province of departure is the province of origin and the province of arrival is the province of destination Intraprovincial migration Movement between two census divisions or census metropolitan areas located within the same province The CD CMA of departure is the CD CMA of origin and the CD CMA of arrival is the CD CMA of destination Median Is the middle number in a group of numbers Where a median income for example is given as 26 000 it means that exactly half of the incomes reported are greater than or equal to 26 000 and th
9. at the other half are less than or equal to the median amount Median incomes in the data tables are rounded to the nearest hundred dollars Zero values are not included in the calculation of medians for individuals Migration Movement between two geographic areas during the period covered by the estimates Within Canada the geographic area of reference is the census division or the census metropolitan area Other countries are considered as one geographic area Net migration Difference between the number of in migrants and the number of out migrants Out migration Movement out of a census division or census metropolitan area to elsewhere inside or outside Canada Taxfiler Most taxfilers are people who filed a tax return for the reference year and were alive at the end of the year Starting with the 1993 tax year those taxfilers who died within the tax year and who had a non filing spouse had their income and their filing status attributed to the surviving spouse Total Income Note this variable was revised over the years as reflected in the comments below data users who plan to compare current data to data from previous years should bear in mind these changes Also it should be noted that all income amounts are gross with the exception of net rental income net limited partnership income and all forms of net self employment income Income reported by taxfilers from any of the following sources Labour income Employment income W
10. cial language of their choice To this end the Agency has developed standards of service that its employees observe in serving its clients To obtain a copy of these service standards please contact Statistics Canada toll free at 1 800 263 1136 The service standards are also published on www statcan ca under About Statistics Canada gt Providing services to Canadians 17 LIST OF DATA PRODUCTS AVAILABLE The Small Area and Administrative Data Division of Statistics Canada tabulates statistical data derived from administrative records most notably the taxfile The resulting demographic and socio economic databanks available are listed in the table below along with their identifying product number and the usual release dates Product name Product number Release date RRSP Contributors 17C0006 RRSP Contribution Limits Room 1700011 Canadian Savers 17C0009 Canadian Investors 17C0007 Canadian Investment Income 17C0008 Canadian Taxfilers 17C0010 Canadian Capital Gains 17C0012 Charitable Donors 13C0014 Neighbourhood Income and Demographics 13C0015 Economic Dependency Profiles 13C0017 Labour Income Profiles 71C0018 Families 13C0016 Seniors 89C0022 Migration Estimates 91C0025 18
11. comparing current and previous census divisions or census metropolitan areas of residence Taxfilers non filing dependents are assumed to have the same migration behaviour as that of the filer to whom they are assigned See Lucaciu Daniela and Harris Shelley Overview of T1FF Processing SAADD 1999 Step 4 Coverage Correction The final step in the estimation process is an adjustment for coverage done by age and gender at the census division census metropolitan area level Population estimates by CD CMA are used to create coverage ratios For migration estimates up to 2000 01 provincial adjustment ratios were used in place of the CD CMA ratio in the few cases where coverage was abnormally high or low Beginning with 2001 02 migration data high and low coverage were identified with a new methodology and a Canadian adjustment ratio was used in place of the CD CMA ratio Starting with 2006 2007 migration data adjustment ratios use the CD CMA ratio The adjustment ratios are applied to the counts of out migrants derived in Step 3 to obtain an estimate of total migration The basic assumption is that the population not covered by the taxation system has the same migration rate as that covered by it The estimates of international migration are prorated to agree with provincial estimates provided by the Demography Division of Statistics Canada Data Quality Based on a detailed evaluation of the estimates for the intercensal period
12. his new SGC system Therefore beginning with 2001 02 migration data are available for a total of 28 CMAs Starting with 2006 2007 CMA boundaries are based on 2006 SGC The CMAs of Moncton N B Barrie Ont Brandford Ont Guelph Ont Peterborough Ont and Kelowna B C were introduced with this new SGC system Therefore beginning with 2006 2007 migration data are available for a total of 33 CMAs The development of these data involves four main steps 1 Geocoding of tax records 2 Estimation of non filing dependents of taxfilers by age group and gender 3 Identification of the number age group and gender of migrant taxfilers and 4 Adjustment for the population not covered by the Canada Revenue Agency Taxation system Step 1 Geocoding The geographic coding of census divisions and census metropolitan areas on the tax records is done primarily on the basis of the postal code which is part of the mailing address In some cases other pieces of information were used in place of a missing postal code Since the 1989 tax files over 99 of the records could be assigned a census division code Step 2 Estimation of Dependents Since the source file has no direct information on the number and characteristics of non filing dependents this information must be imputed Up to the 1987 88 period this was based on the relationship between the dollar value of the total personal exemptions claimed and the number of dependents
13. ion data exclude net temporary emigrants returning emigrants and non permanent residents who did not file an income tax return An Outline of the Methodology The data developed from the taxation records are estimates of migration flows between census divisions or census metropolitan areas by gender and broad age groups under 18 18 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 and 65 and over Starting with 2006 2007 migration estimates are produced for 2006 census division boundaries For 2001 02 migration estimates are produced for 2001 census division boundaries For 1996 97 through to 2000 01 estimates are produced for 1996 census division boundaries From 1992 93 through to 1995 96 the data were produced for 1991 census division boundaries For the 1986 87 through 1991 92 periods the census division boundaries corresponded to those defined in the 1986 Census For the years 1981 82 to 1985 86 the boundaries used are those defined in the 1981 Census and in the previous years the 1976 census boundaries are used Migration flows for census metropolitan areas are available since 1992 93 and the boundaries of the 26 CMAs are based on 1991 Census definitions for the period 1992 93 to 1995 96 CMA boundaries based on the 1996 Standard Geographic Coding SGC were used in the creation of 1996 97 to 2000 01 estimates Beginning with 2001 02 CMA boundaries are based on 2001 SGC The CMAs of Kingston Ontario and Abbotsford British Columbia were introduced with t
14. litan areas The mailing address at the time of filing is the basis for the geographic information in the tables The following table shows the coded designators for each level of geography as well as a brief description of each Level of Description Geography Census The general concept of a census metropolitan area CMA is Metropolitan one of a very large urban area together with adjacent urban and Area rural areas that have a high degree of economic and social integration with that urban area CMAs have an urban core population of at least 100 000 based on the previous census There are 33 CMAs in the 2006 databanks 001 St John s Newfoundland and Labrador 205 Halifax Nova Scotia 305 Moncton New Brunswick 310 Saint John New Brunswick 408 Saguenay Qu bec 421 Qu bec Qu bec 433 Sherbrooke Qu bec 442 Trois Rivi res Qu bec 462 Montr al Qu bec 505 Ottawa Gatineau Qu bec part 505 Ottawa Gatineau Ontario part 521 Kingston Ontario 529 Peterborough Ontario 532 Oshawa Ontario 535 Toronto Ontario 537 Hamilton Ontario 539 St Catharines Niagara Ontario 541 Kitchener Ontario 543 Brantford Ontario 550 Guelph Ontario 555 London Ontario 559 Windsor Ontario 568 Barrie Ontario 580 Greater Sudbury Ontario 595 Thunder Bay Ontario 602 Winnipeg Manitoba 705 Regina Saskatchewan 15 Level of Geography Census Metropolitan Area cont d De
15. mes as reported on line 130 of the tax form fellowships bursaries grants etc included in other income Federal sales tax FST credit for 1989 1990 inclusive Goods and services tax GST credit beginning in 1990 Harmonized sales tax HST credit beginning in 1997 Child tax credit up to and including 1992 Canada Child Tax Benefit starting with 1993 and Universal Child Care Benefit beginning in 2006 Other non taxable income since 1990 Workers compensation payments shown separately starting with 1994 Social assistance payments shown separately starting with 1994 Guaranteed Income Supplement included with net federal supplements since 1994 previously in non taxable income Spouses Allowance included with net federal supplements since 1994 previously in non taxable income Provincial refundable tax credits in Ontario Quebec Manitoba and Saskatchewan since 1990 British Columbia and the Northwest Territories since 1993 Newfoundland and Labrador and Nunavut since 1997 the Nova Scotia one time payment Taxpayer Refund Program 2003 only the New Brunswick Low Income Seniors Benefit since 2005 and the Alberta one time payment Resource Rebate 2006 only Monies not included in income above are veterans disability and dependent pensioners 13 payments war veterans allowances lottery winnings and capital gains 14 SECTION IV GEOGRAPHY The data are available for census divisions and census metropo
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17. of 1986 91 a number of observations can be made regarding migration estimates for Census divisions a Overall the estimates of migration are of good quality It is however difficult to make exact comparisons to other annual estimates of migration flows at the census division level The estimates of net migration have been used to produce population estimates and these have been compared to the 1991 Census counts The average absolute difference for 1991 was 2 3 In 12 of 182 cases 6 the deviation exceeded 5 and in 3 cases the deviation exceeded 10 this does not include Quebec census divisions These deviations are smaller than those obtained from other estimation methodologies and indirectly indicate the quality of the net migration data It has not been possible to do much evaluation of the flow data B In addition to the estimates of migration based on tax records Demography Division of Statistics Canada also produces estimates of interprovincial migration which are based on Child Tax Benefit records The concepts underlying these estimates differ from the concepts used in the tax based estimates More specifically the Child Tax Benefit data estimates monthly moves while the tax data tracks annual moves No comparable study has yet been done to examine the CMA coverage 3 Montgomery March 1993 p 15 Availability of Data Migration estimates are available by census division from 1976 77 and by census metropolitan area f
18. or any uses not permitted or not specified in this agreement Any infringement of Statistics Canada s rights may result in legal action Any use whatsoever of this data product shall constitute your acceptance of the terms of this agreement Any violation of these terms may result in termination of this licence For further information please contact Licensing Services E mail licensing statcan ca Client Services Division Statistics Canada Telephone 613 951 1122 9th Floor R H Coats Building Fax 613 951 1134 Ottawa Ontario K1A OT6 Canada Statistics Canada 2008 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION estir tati ide ias 4 SEG HON lin THE DATA ato 4 Data SQUI S oireeni irean aae E AE Ee ad 4 An Outline of the Methodology ooooccconocccnnnconcccncnonancccnnnnnnncnnn nano nono cnn ncnnnnnn nn crnrnanncnn 4 Eele oole oreo c2de casevncc em eee cant ste ants os fe etra dt eh eae E hen de 5 Estimation of Dependents anoto e ipods 5 Migrant Taxfilers and Dependents ccceeeeeeeececceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesseeeeeeeeeeeees 6 Coverage COR GCTION scncsenin e 7 Data Quality i 7 Availability f Datei add 8 SECTION I THE DATA TABLES curia rea 9 Data Table Contents ida 10 SECTION III GLOSSARY OF TERMS circa eos 11 SECTION IV GEOGRAPHY sec ceciacesetctata tat rr la 16 WEAINVITE YOUR COMMENTS saca 17 LIST OF DATA PRODUCTS AVAILABLE aE E ER 18 MIGRATION ESTIMATES FROM TAX RECORDS FOR CENSUS
19. r printouts microfiche and microfilm and magnetic tape Maps and other geographic reference materials are available for some types of data Direct online access to aggregated information is possible through CANSIM Statistics Canada s machine readable database and retrieval system How to obtain more information Inquiries about these data and related statistics or services should be directed to Client Services Telephone 613 951 9720 Small Area and Administrative Data Division Toll Free 866 652 8443 Statistics Canada Fax 613 951 4745 Room 1306 Main Building Toll Free 866 652 8444 120 Parkdale Avenue saadinfo statcan ca Ottawa Ontario K1A OT6 Advisory Services provides a wide range of services identification of your needs establishing sources or availability of data consolidation and integration of data coming from different sources and development of profiles analysis of highlights or tendencies and finally training on products services Statistics Canada concepts and also the use of statistical data National enquiries line 1 800 263 1136 National telecommunications device for the hearing impaired 1 800 363 7629 Order only line Canada and the United States 1 800 267 6677 National Toll free Fax line 1 877 287 4369 You can also visit us on the web http Awww statcan ca Standards of service to the public Statistics Canada is committed to serving its clients in a prompt reliable and courteous manner and in the offi
20. rom 1992 93 For the 1976 81 period no preliminary migration flows between census divisions were calculated Adjustments were not made at the international level although evaluations indicated the estimates of international migration were too low For the period from 1981 82 to 1984 85 migration estimates from tax records were produced twice a year the first time using a preliminary tax file from the Canada Revenue Agency available with a 6 9 month time delay and the second with a more complete tax file available with a 12 15 month time delay Because the differences between the two sets of estimates were not large beginning with the 1985 86 estimates only one series of estimates was produced The final file has been used since 1985 86 Beginning with the 1981 82 estimates the data on immigration and emigration have been prorated to make them consistent with the most currently available estimates produced at the provincial level by Demography Division of Statistics Canada Two data series are produced to accommodate data updating done by Demography Division 1 Preliminary Estimates 15 18 month time lag The international component is prorated to the preliminary estimates of international migration provided by Demography Division and 2 Revised Final Estimates 27 33 month time lag The international component is prorated to the final estimates of international migration provided by Demography Division while the counts of internal
21. scription 725 Saskatoon Saskatchewan 825 Calgary Alberta 835 Edmonton Alberta 915 Kelowna British Columbia 932 Abbotsford British Columbia 933 Vancouver British Columbia 935 Victoria British Columbia Census Division A census division CD is a group of neighbouring municipalities joined together for the purposes of regional planning and managing common services such as police or ambulance services ACD might correspond to a county a regional municipality or a regional district CDs are established under laws in effect in certain provinces and territories of Canada In other provinces and territories where laws do not provide for such areas Newfoundland Manitoba Saskatchewan and Alberta Statistics Canada defines equivalent areas for statistical reporting purposes in cooperation with these provinces and territories The 2006 databanks contain 288 areas coded as level of geography 21 16 WE INVITE YOUR COMMENTS We are always working on ways to improve our products The comments we receive concerning quality and presentation are essential to meet this objective If you have any suggestions in this regard we encourage you the user to provide us with your comments Data in many forms Statistics Canada disseminates data in a variety of forms In addition to publications both standard and special tabulations are offered Data are available on the Internet compact disk diskette compute
22. umber of taxfilers moving into the CD CMA by province of origin their median income for the year prior to the move and their median income in the year of the move The table also provides a comparison of the migrant taxfilers median income with the provincial and national figures 10 SECTION lll GLOSSARY OF TERMS Age Is calculated as of December 31 of the reference year i e tax year minus year of birth Census division CD Refers to the general term applying to counties regional districts regional municipalities and five other types of geographic areas made up of groups of census subdivisions In Newfoundland Manitoba Saskatchewan and Alberta the term describes areas that have been created by Statistics Canada in cooperation with the provinces as an equivalent for counties Census metropolitan area CMA The general concept of census metropolitan areas CMA is one of a very large urban area together with adjacent urban and rural areas that have a high degree of economic and social integration with that urban area Dependent For the purpose of these databanks dependents are the non filing members of a family We do not attempt to measure dependency in any way but are able to identify certain non filing family members and include these in the total counts of people in a given area Emigration Movement from an area in Canada to another country Gross migration flow Sum of the number of migrants between two geographic
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