USER'S GUIDE FOR FIDME-PC: FORESTRY INVESTMENT
Contents
1. P PP PP PP TP PP PP PP Easy ters ield 5 Rossi at Canadian Forest Service Ontario Sault Ste Marie Ontario OF RETURN c cc cc E c ee ANALYSIS 1 J P BARE ROOT Rate of Interest Rate of Inflation Rotation Period Years To Termination Lag From Prep To Estab Yrs From Prep To Survey Subjective Estimates Cost Return Point Category Prob i 1 High ht Shear Blading 110 00 140 00 TESTABLISHMENT 1 l 250 00 350 00 0 05 aes ISTOCKING STANDARD gt Ontario Standards Level For Success 0 65 Level For Failure 0 45 IExpected Stocking 0 95 ANNUAL COST 1 gt Property tax Beginning 1 Ending eee IPERIODIC COST 1 Preconmercial and Commercial Thinning cost ha Beginning 15 Ending 45 Interval 20 15 00 1 300 00 0 051 0 80 1 50 00 IANNUAL RETURN 1 Users Beginning 10 Ending 70 I 1 4 0 RETURN 812 Return from Commercial Thinning Beginning 35 Ending 45 Interval 20 D l Bs 100 00 0 20 0 802. RUN IDENTIFICATION Number of Iterations Number of Analyses Random Seed Economic Criteria Input Data File Output Summary ANALYSIS 1 J P Rate of Interest Rate of Inflation Rotation Period 7 Years To Termination 1 Lag From Prep To Estab 0 SECOND EXAMPLE 300 35 BENEFIT COST RATIO EXAMPLE2 DAT EXAMPLE2 OUT BARE ROOT Yrs From Prep To Survey ESTIMATE Point Estimate I Cost Return I Category Shear Blading 1 250 00 320 00 PEN ng 8 1000 Container Stock ha eme 1 140 00 STOCKING STANDARD 656 819 Standards 1 Level Success 0 65 Level IExpected Stocking 1 19 48 1 0 981 0 051 0 95 1 9 40 PRODUCT 1 gt BUT pad Cubic REN EAR 0 10 130 00 Price S Unit Output Year of Forecasts I 14 00 8 001 0 101 0 901 2 00 ANALYSTS 2 J P CONTAINER Rate of Intecest Rate of Inflation Rotation Period Years To Termination 170 Lag From Prep To Estab 10 Yrs From Prep To Survey 2 Cost Return Point l Category IEstimate Prob lt Low PREPARATION cost aa gt Light Shear Blading 110 00 140 00 0 10 eser wasapa cost 1 gt Manual Planting 250 00 350 00 0 05 0 95 STOCKING STANDARD gt Standards Level For Success 0 65 Level For Failure 0 45 IExp
3. Estimate Ji l k IS cost Land eene Value 500 40 a y PREPARATION cost n Heavy n Blading M 29020071 920 00 Prob lt Low 5 I STOCKING STANDARD Ontario Standards I Level For Success 0 65 Level For Failure 0 45 Expected Stocking L 0 80 0 95 0 10 JANNUAL COST 1 gt Property tax S ha year Beginning 1 Ending 10 l 120 01 See PERIODIC COST 1 gt Werbicide Application 1 5 kg Vision ha Beginning 2 Ending 9 Interval 2 60 00 pacc eden 2 4 TPERIODIC COST 2 gt Prunning E Shaping of Christmas Tress 5 l Beginning 1 Ending 9 Interval 1 1 1205000 1500001 0 1 JEIQUIDATION os aS Sales 5 T TERMINAL RETURN UE Land Sales End S ha 700 0 I PRODUCT 1 gt Christmas Trees ha Amount 800 00 950 00 LTS OF ANALYSIS Economic Criteria INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN of l dinglJ P BARE ROOT B S BARE ROOT SCOTS PINE CH s INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN gt J P BARE ROOT 5 Probability Of Exceeding 8 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 ROOT 50 5 8 5 4 5
4. USER S GUIDE FOR FIDME PC FORESTRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS MADE EASY ON PERSONAL COMPUTERS B Payandeh D R Dukest Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service Ontario Great Lakes Forestry Centre 1994 Information Report O X 434 Summer student Wilfrid Laurier University Waterloo Ontario eo This report is printed on recycled paper Canadian Cataloguing in Publication Data Payandeh Bijan User s quide for FIDME PC forestry investment decisions made easy on personal computers Information report ISSN 0832 7122 434 Includes an abstract in French Includes bibliographical references ISBN 0 662 22190 7 Cat no Fo46 14 434E 1 Forests and forestry Economic aspects Computer programs Handbooks manuals etc 1 Dukes D R Darren R II Great Lakes Forestry Centre Title Forestry investment decisions made easy on personal computers V Series Information report Great Lakes Forestry Centre O X 434 SD387 M33P39 1994 634 9 2 0285369 C94 980173 9 Minister of Supply and Services Canada 1994 Catalogue No Fo 46 14 434E ISBN 0 662 22190 7 ISSN 0832 7122 Copies of this publication are available at no charge from Communications Services Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service Ontario Great Lakes Forestry Centre P O Box 490 Sault Ste Marie Ontario P6A 5 7 Microfiche copies of this publication may be purchased from Micro Media
5. PROD 1 gt Pulpwood Meter ha Amount t IPric Unit Year 2 Fo 150 00 4 00 PRODUCT 42 Amount Unit Year of Fore 1 10 00 15 00 M ges ANALYSIS 2 BARE ROOT Rate of Interest Rate of Inflation Rotation Period Years To Termination Lag From Prep To Estab Yrs From Prep To Survey COSTS AND RETURN _ESTIMATES st Return Point Category lEstimate ERERANATEUN cos T um Light Shear Blading BECAME CUI 0 10 2 89 ESTABLISHMENT COST 1 Manual Planting 81000 Bare pi Seedlings ha l l 250 00 350 00 0 05 0 95 225 00 G STANDARD gt Standards For Success 0 65 Level For Failure 0 45 lExpected Stocking l I 0 35 0 90 0 10 0 95 0 30 ETE MENS ANNUAL COST 1 gt Property tax ete ha year Beginning 1 Ending 70 N 1 0 l PRODI B lpeood Cubic Meter ha 180 00 230 00 S Unit Output Year Forecast 10 4 00 lAmount l ANALYSIS 3 scots PINE CH Rate of Interest Rate of Inflation Rotation Period Years To Termination i Lag From Prep Estab Yrs From Prep To Survey COSTS AND RETURN ESTIMATES l A l Subjective Estimates Cost Return Point
6. Level for Failure 0 4500 Expected stocking level Low Est High Est Prob Low 0 2000 0 9500 0 1000 Precommercial Commercial Thinning Cost Low Est High Est Prob Low 1 75 0000 300 0000 0 0500 Beginning in Year 15 Ending in Year 30 Duration of Period 20 Pulpwood Cubic Meter ha Low Est High Est Prob Low 1 150 0000 250 0000 9 1000 0 0000 Year of Price Forecast 0 Prob High Absolute Minimum 0 8000 0 0000 Prob High Absolute Minimum 0 8000 50 0000 Prob High Absolute Minimum 0 9500 120 0000 APPENDIX 3 Printing LaserJet and plotter files 1 HP LaserJet files use PCL5 and HPGL 2 Commands Make sure that the LaserJet being used is a version III or IV all models are supported i e IVp IVsi etc If it is a version Il refer to the section Setting up FIDME PC for Peripherals in this manual LaserJet files can be printed directly to a LaserJet printer with the DOS PRINT command For example assume EXAMPLE LJ3 is file to be printed see Example Runs Section for details on printing to files This file would be printed by typing print examplel 1j3 at the DOS prompt The print command could then ask for a printer port so be sure to know which port the LaserJet is on before trying to print 2 HP Plotter files use HPGL Commands Make sure the plotter uses the HPGL language Using a plotter file is complicated and involves the use of DOS MODE command refer to MS DOS user s monua
7. Simulation Can For Serv Inf Rep O X 434 Again for this example type the name of the supplied example file examplel and press ENTER 4 The screen should now look like the one shown in Figure 1 Because the data input file EXAMPLEI DAT has been provided with each copy of FIDME PC type 1 and press lt ENTER gt at the prompt to Use or Revise Existing Input File The 0 option will be described in detail in Section C 5 The next prompt is about appending files It reads Do You Wish To Append This File Y N Appending files will be discussed later so type N and press ENTER to proceed 6 question of whether to edit a file is posed as You Wish To Edit This File Y N Since the edit operation will be discussed later type N and press ENTER 7 The program will now read the data from the existing input file and begin processing During the execution of the simulation run time information is written to the information window and continuously updated as in Figure 2 OUTPUT RUN TIME INFORMATION ANALYSIS 1 PLANT J PINE Percentage of Iterations Completed Number of Iterations Abandoned 19 67 Figure 2 Run time information screen 8 percentage of iterations completed for each analysis is given so that the amountoftimetocompletioncanbe estimated The number of iterations abandoned are also displayed to show how many trials failed to
8. 26 2 76 35 70 Percentage of Iterations Abandoned 1 338 8 008 PROBABILITY OF EXPECTED RESULTS Economic Criteria COST EFFECTIVENESS gt PLANT J PINE SEED J PINE Probability Of Exceeding 8 100 95 5 90 5 85 80 75 5 70 3 65 t 60 55 5 50 5 45 5 40 35 4 30 20 15 10 5 Pd katipika p ES HE 0 00 33 86 56 03 78 20 144 70 Future Cost per Unit Output FFFFFFFF 111111 DDDDDDD MM MM EEEEEEEE FFFFFFFF IIIIII DDDDDDDD MMM X EEEEEEEE EF 11 DD FF DD EFFEEEF II DD DD MM MM FFFFFFF II DD DD MM EEEEEEE FF II DD DD MM FF II DD DD MM MM FF II DD DD MM MM 111111 DDDDDDDD MM MM FF DDDDDDD MM MM PPS Forestry Investment Decisions Made Easy on IBM Compatible Personal Computers PPPPPPPP PPPPPPPPP PP PE Developed and J Field Programmed by D Basham Punch 5 Rossi Canadian Forest Service Ontario Sault Ste I and D Dukes l l Marie Ontario ge cc c cc
9. 407 58 201 14 481 29 0 40 341 59 115 55 385 2 0 50 242 59 57 06 319 51 0 60 162 07 15 60 245 06 0 70 109 44 66 81 149 78 0 80 31 80 156 82 10 55 0 90 49 98 18 23 1 00 562 89 333 12 PROBABILITY EXPECTED RESULTS Economic Criteria PRESENT NET WORTH gt J P BARE ROOT 5 B S BARE ROOT gt W S CONTAINER Probability Of Exceeding 8 100 98 5 90 E is 85 E 3 80 5 75 70 5 LA 65 300 60 Et 55 o t3 50 5 45 5 40 35 5 30 5 25 5 20 15 5 ob ara EPPS jan 562 89 304 72 46 56 211 61 469 78 127 94 986 11 1244 27 Present Worth per Unit Area FFFFFFFF FFFFFFFF FFFFFFF FFFFFFF LA 111111 DDDDDDD MM MM EEEEEEEE 111111 DDDDDDDD 1 D DD II DD DD MM MMMM MM II DD DD MM MM EE II DD DD MM MM EEEEEEE II DD DD MM MM EEEEEEE II DD DD MM II DD DD MM MM II DD DD MM 111111 DDDDDDDD MM MM EEEEEEEE IIIIII MM MM RUN IDENTIFICATION Number of Iterations Number of Analyses Random Seed Economic Criteria Input Data File Output Summary Decisions Mad on IBM Compatible Personal Compu Developed by B Payandeh and J F Programmed by D Basham M Punch and D Dukes FOURTH EXAMPLE 500 3 1235 INTERNAL RATE EXAMPLE4 DAT EXAMPLE4 OUT
10. ENTER gt to display the output graph on the screen as in Figure 6 Notice that the Plant J Pine future cost per unit is much higher than the previous run of EXAMPLE see Fig 6 The editor can be a powerful tool to allow you to perform what if changes in various costs and returns to determine the best combinations PROBABILITY OF EXPECTED RESULTS Economic Criteria Cost Effectivness PLANT J PINE SEED J PINE Probability of Exceeding oo Sa SRS RSRSRSRSASRSRS 9082 10092 12723 N S 10504 2044 21015 Future Cost 5 per Unit Output Figure 6 An example of FIDME PC s graphics output for EXAMPLEI DAT E Appending Files This new feature was added to FIDME PC for two reasons small data files containing a single alternative investment are easier to create edit and test and the larger the data file with three or four analyses the greater the chance of making mistakes and the longer the simulation will take In addition small data files containing single analysis can be combined in numerous ways 1 In order to append two files two data files are needed that when combined will have no more than four analyses One of these files can be EXAMPLE1 DAT and the other must be one created using the Interactive Mode of FIDME PC see Sections A and B with either one or two analyses Can For Serv Inf Rep 434 If the two files appended have different ec
11. 00 ISTOCKING STANDARD Ontario Standards Level For Success 0 65 Level For Fallure Expected Stocking en PRODUCT 1 gt PUlpWogd Cubic Meter ha Amount l 300 00 200 00 ANALYSIS 2 SEED J PINE Rate of Interest 6 00 Rate of Inflation 1 00 Rotation Period Years To Termination 70 Lag From Prep Estab Yes From Prep To Survey COSTS AND RETURN ESTIMATES Subjective Estimates Cost Return Point Category IEstimate 1 Prob 1 Prob l Low High Low lt High Min PREPARATION 1 gt Heavy Shear Blading l 250 00 320 00 ERDABLISIMENT ST 1 gt Aerial Seeding a 90008 Seeds ha 9 30 00 50 0 1 k STOCKING STANDARD Ontario Standards Level For Success 0 65 Level For Failure 0 45 Expected Stockings IPERIODIC COST 1 Hrs po and Commercial Thinn l Beginning 15 Ending 30 Interval 20 1 75 00 300 00 a hisap PRODUCT 1 gt Meter ha Amount l 150 00 250 00 0 10 Economic Criteria COST EFFECTIVENESS n 0 00 187 52 189 04 0 10 106 72 113 48 0 20 88 98 94 78 0 30 79 92 84 82 0 40 69 78 75 76 0 50 62 72 71 57 0 60 56 65 66 67 62 34 57
12. 5 a 5 S 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 052 0 069 0 087 0 104 Internal of Return 8 FPE LE Leper
13. 5600 MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MM MM EEEEEEEE EEEEEEEE EE EE EE EEEEEEE EEEEEEE EEEEEEEE EEEEEEEE PPPPPPPP PPPPPPPPP Forestry tment D isions Made Easy on IBM Compatible Personal Computers Developed by B Payandeh and J Field at Canadian Forest Servi and D Du s Sault Ste Marie Ontario RUN IDENTI Number of It Programmed D Basham M Punch 5 Rossi I FICATION First Example erations 300 2 Number of Analyses Ran Economic Criteria Input Output ANALYSIS Rate of I Rate of I Rotation Years To Lag From Yrs From Seed 1334 File EXAMPLEL DAT Summary EXAMPLE1 OUT 1 PLANT nterest nflation Period Termination Prep To Estab Prep To Survey PINE 6 00 1 00 170 70 0 Ontario COST EFFECTIVENESS SOSTA AND RETURN ESTIMATES Subjective Estimates Categor 1 Prob Prob l 1 Cost Return Point PREPARATION COST gt Light Shear Blading 1 l 110 00 140 00 Ji 0 10 0 95 100 00 RE E TESTABLISHMENT cost 1 gt Manual Pating 1000 Seedlings ha l 250 00 350 00 0 05 0 20
14. DME PC does not allow the user to delete characters or insert lines Characters can be deleted by overwriting or use of the space bar 6 To begin the first input file change is the preparation cost label for Analysis Using lt PgDn gt and the arrow keys move the cursor to line 50 and change Light Shear Blading on that line to Heavy Shear Blading The next line line 51 also appears but is not read by FIDME PC Next on line 52 change 110 0000 to 250 0000 140 0000 to 320 0000 100 0000 to 230 0000 The rest of the line is left as is 7 See Appendix 2 for a summary of the different parts of the data DAT files Can For Serv Inf Hep 434 13 If mistakes have occurred such as entering letters where numbers should have been or values that were out of range an error message will be displayed instead of the simulation Refer to Appendix D for an explanation of the error 14 8 Now that site preparation cost has been changed continue with the simulation To return to the main selection screen and save any changes hold down the lt ALT gt key and press W simultaneously To return to the main selection screen and disregard all changes press lt ALT gt X To save changes and begin the simulation press lt CTRL gt C In this example we will proceed with the simulation and press lt CTRL gt C 9 After the simulation is complete and the output tables have been viewed type 1 and press lt
15. DME PC est un logiciel pour ordinateur personnel il t congu pour aider les gestionnaires de for ts valuer et examiner les projets d investissement avec facilit et un maximum de pr cision Il peut aider comparer jusqu quatre projets suivant l un des quatre crit res conomiques suivants 1 Rentabilit 2 Rapport co t avantages 3 Valeur nette actualis e 4 Taux de rendement interne Les pr visions entr es dans le mod le peuvent tre exprim es en estimations ponctuelles ou en estimations subjectives de probabilit Les r sultats de la Simulation indiqueront la probabilit d un investissement par rapport aux autres Le gestionnaire pourra donc choisir avec une certaine confiance entre des projets d investissement Les applications du mod le sontillustr s par plusieurs exemples Le pr sent guide de l utilisateur comprend une br ve description de la configuration du syst me du contenu de la disquette de distribution de la facon d installer le logiciel et de son interaction avec les p riph riques du syst me de l utilisateur contient galement quatre exemples de fichier d entr e et une explication pas pas du premier exemple des explications sur la cr ation et la modification de fichiers et sur l addition de fichiers de donn es d entr e Les r sultats des quatre exemples sont galement joints TABLE of CONTENTS INTRODUCTION GETTING STARTED SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS THE DISTRIBUTION DI
16. Inc Place du Portage 165 Hotel de Ville Hull Quebec J8X 3X2 Payandeh Dukes 1994 Users guide for FIDM PC Forestry Investment Decisions Made Easy on Personal Computers Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service Ontario Sault Ste Marie Ontario Inf Rep 434 17 p appendixes ABSTRACT FIDME PCis apersonal computer program developedto assist forest managers in evaluating and screening investment alternatives with ease and maximum precision Upto fourinvestment alternatives can be compared using one of the four following economic criteria 1 Cost effectiveness 2 Benefit cost ratio 3 Present net worth 4 Internal rate of return The input estimates for the model can be expressed as either point or subjective probability estimates Simulated results will provide the probability of one investment differing from others The forest manager can therefore choose with a known degree of confidence between investment alternatives Model applications are demonstrated by several examples This instruction manual includes a brief description of the system requirements contents of the distribution diskette installation of the program and setup with the user system peripherals It also contains four input file examples with a step by step running of the first example input file creation editing and appending of the input data files Output of the four examples is also included RESUME FI
17. SKETTE INSTALLATION On a Hard Disk On a Floppy Disk SETTING UP FIDME PC FOR PERIPHERALS What You Need to Know if You Have a Plotter What You Need to Know to Print Out the Results EXAMPLE RUNS A Using Existing Input Files B Output Options Graphics Output to Screen Plotters and Printers Creating New Data Files via Interactive Mode Editing Existing Files Appending Files moo PROGRAM STRUCTURE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS BIBLIOGRAPHY APPENDIXES APPENDIX 1 Required and optimal categories for each economic criterion APPENDIX 2 Input output file conventions APPENDIX 3 Printing LaserJet and plotter files APPENDIX 4 Common or possible error types APPENDIX 5 Output of example runs 16 We 17 19 INTRODUCTION Most forest investments are long term by nature and thus subject to risk and uncertainty In the case of forest renewal investments in particular it is essential that they are chosen from the most promising alternatives possible To evaluate and screen out investment alternatives with greater ease an curacy forest managers need a technique that not only enables them to predict the costs and rates of return but also indicates the likelihood of these predictions being achieved FIDME PC Forest Investment Decisions Made Easy on Personal Computers is a program designed for foresters with access to an IBM PC compatible computer The program is a tool to accurately evaluate the relati
18. a number that out of range e g using the editor to set iterations to 700 will cause this error Message 1 will give the value of the number that is out of range and then tell the user what the number represents If the error is not in Section 1 of the data file FIDME PC will also display which analysis number it is For errors occurring in Section 3 Message 2 will display the label of the cost or return in which the error occurred Upon entering the editor the cursor will be positioned on the line where the error occurred ERROR 2 Message 1 Message 2 Press any key to enter the editor This type of error is generated by an illegal number reference This error is somewhat more serious and vague than Error 1 It is generated when FIDME PC encounters data that it can not read For example the error will occur if a real decimal number is entered in place of an integer number Message 1 will display which number is invalid e g invalid interest rate For errors occurring in Section 3 Message 2 will display the label of the cost or return where the error occurred Upon entering the editor the cursor will be positioned on the line where the error occurred APPENDIX 5 Output of example runs 7 FFFFFEFF 111111 DDDDDDD 2 FFFFFFFF 111111 DDDDDDDD FE II DD DD gt Se LI DD DD FF II DD DD FFFFFFF II DD DD II DD II DD DD DD DD VER II DD DD v FE 111111 FF IIIIII 060
19. al For Exp Stn St Paul Minn Res Paper NC 163 Payandeh 1988 Economic evaluation of forest drainage and fertilization in northern Ontario peatlands via an investment decision model New For 3 144 160 Payandeh B Basham D T Haig 1991 Forestry investment decisions made easy on personal computers FIDMEPC For Can Ont Region Frontline Note No 3 Payandeh B Basham D T 1992 FIDMEPC forestry investment decisions made easy on personal computers Int J Model Simul Vol 13 2 72 76 Payandeh B Field J E stry Investment Decisions Made Easy Can For Serv Great Lakes For Cent Sault Ste Marie Ont Inf Rep 0 X 364 Payandeh B Haig R A 1994 Using an investment decision model to evaluate drainage and fertilization of peatland black spruce Natural Resources Canada Can For Serv Ont Region In press 17 APPENDIX 1 Required optimal categories for each economic criterion Criterion Cost effectiveness Present net worth Required input Optimal inputs At least one analysis At least one product Amount only product price is ignored No return categories because they are not used and will slow down the execution time and compli cate the output summary At least one analysis Benefit cost ratio At least one cost category At least one return category or product At least analyses A
20. and type the same copy command as given in this section DOS will start copying Whenever DOS refers to drive use drive On a Hard Disk install FIDME PC on a hard disk it is recommended that a separate directory be created With the DOS MKDIR command any name can be used for this directory this example uses FIDME Atthe DOS prompt type mkdir c Vidme and press lt ENTER gt Place the FIDME PC distribution diskette into drive A and type copy a c fidme and press lt ENTER gt This copies all of the files on disk A to the subdirectory FIDME on drive On a Floppy Disk Place the FIDME PC distribution diskette into drive and newly formatted diskette into drive At the DOS prompt type copy a b and press ENTER Can For Serv Inf Rep 434 SETTING UP FIDME PC FOR PERIPHERALS Can For Serv Inf Rep 434 To set up FIDME PC for use with a plotter and printer the setup program should be executed To do this change to the drive and directory that contains your installed version of FIDME At the DOS prompt enter fidsetup Make the appropriate selections on the setup menu for your system Some technical knowledge is required if using a printer or plotter so be sure to have the plotter manual onhand or someone nearby who can assist you with choosing the correct settings What You Need to Know if You Have a Plotter Se
21. ce a satisfactory stock according to the stocking standards then that site will be abandoned 11 Annual and periodic costs returns These are the same as the other costs returns except they require a year in which they begin and end Periodic costs returns also need an interval at which they are repeated Final cost return These are costs and returns associated with rotation end but not included in the final products Terminal return This refers to asset liquidation and or sale of land when investment operation is terminated for good Products Up to eight different products can be chosen The amount of each product is expressed in number of units of output unit area e g m or number of Christmas trees acre The estimation of the price of the product is the price unit output in a future year usually estimated for the next 5 10 years 6 After the data input file is completely entered it is saved automatically and the simulation will begin See Sections 7 to 10 for the rest of the instructions COST RETURN OR PRODUCT INPUT ESTIMATES Analysis 1 Preparation Costs Preparation Cost 1 Enter a label for this cost Light Shear Blading Enter Subjective Estimates Low Estimates 110 High Estimate 140 Prob lt Low 10 0 1 10 Prob lt High 90 0 9 95 Absolute Minimum 100 Accept Y N Figure 5 The use of subjective probability esti
22. e indicates that there is a 20 chance that future cost of pulpwood m will exceed 88 98 from the jack pine plantation and 94 78 from seeded jack pine Conversely it indicates that there is an 80 chance that the future cost per m will be between 33 86 and 88 98 for pulpwood from the jack pine plantation and between 35 70 and 94 79 m for pulpwood from seeded jack pine Can For Serv Inf Hep 434 For Serv Inf Rep 434 10 After viewing the tabular results the sereen should look like that in Figure 4 This is the output options menu which is the same for all simulation runs For specific instructions on how to use the output options menu see Section When ready to enter your own input file data type R and press lt ENTER gt to restart the program Ontario Region FIDME PC OUTPUT TABULAR GRAPHICAL SUMMARIES Output Graph to enter selection Colour Monitor Hard Copy Summary File EXAMPLEI OUT Print Summary File Restart Simulation Q Quit Now Figure 4 Output options menu B Output Options Graphics Output to Screen Plotters and Printers A feature of FIDME PC is its capability to plot graphs of the output to the monitor screen an HP plotter Hewlett Packard ora LaserJet printer A graph of the output can also be plotted to an ASCII text file If necessary refer to the section Setting up FIDME PC for Peripherals Complete Secti
23. ecision making model forest managers can choose a forest management system with the best chance of being the most economical or alternatively the management system that has the best chance of producing wood at the lowest future cost unit volume Up to four investment alternatives can be compared using any one of four economic criteri Cost effectiveness Benefit cost ratio Present net worth Internal rate of return Application of subjective probability estimates by FIDME PC serves three objectives it serves as a built in mechanism to adjust for risk and uncertainty ciated with the long term investments under consideration it provides a simple method of using limited data augmented by personal experience or judgements about future outcomes of a given set of conditions and it allows incorporation of variability and associated probability with the results Can For Serv Inf Rep 434 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS BIBLIOGRAPHY The authors thank J Field and D Basham of Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service Ontario Punch of the Ontario Lottery Corporation and S Rossi a student from the University of Western Ontario for their programming contributions in developing FIDME PC Can For Serv Inf Rep 434 Olson J T Lundgren A L Rose D 1979 Equations for estimating stand establishment release and thinning costs in the Lake States USDA For Serv North Centr
24. ected Stocking 1 gt Pulpwood lAmount I I 00 Bare Root Seedlings ha I Unit output Year et Forecast 10 I I 4 00 8 00 0 10 0 90 2 00 Probability Of Exceeding 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 50 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 2 RESULTS ANALYSIS Economic Criteria BENEFIT COST RATIO RI te PROBABILITY OF EXPECTED RESULTS Economic Criteri BENEFIT COST RATIO gt J P BARE ROOT 8 gt J CONTAINER Benifit Cost Ratio FFFFFEFF IIIIII DDDDDDD MM MM X EEEEEEEE PPPPPPPP CCCCCCC FFFFFFFF 111111 DDDDDDDD X EEEEEEEE PPPPPPPPP CCCCCCCCC FE DD BR Qi FF II DD DD MM MMMM MM FF II DD FFFEFFF II DD MM i FFFFFFF DD DD MM MM EEEEEEE PPPPPPPP II DD DD MM MM PP gc e FF II DD DD MM FE II DD DD MM MM PP 15 111111 DDDDDDDD MM MM EEEEEEEE CCCCCCCCC ELI DDDDDDD MM MM EEEEEEEE Forestry RUN IDENTI Number of It Number of Analyse Ran Economic Input D Output ANALYSIS Rate of I Rate of I Rotation Years To Lag From Yrs From Investm
25. ent Decisions Made Easy on IBM Compatible Personal Computers and D Dukes at Canadian Forest Service Ontario Sault Ste Marie Ontario FICATION THIRD EXAMPLE erations 300 3 dom Seed 985 Criteri ata File EXAMPLE3 DAT Summary EXAMPLE3 OUT 1 J P BARE ROOT ntetest nflation Period Termination Prep To Estab Prep To Survey 6 00 1 00 Developed by B Payandeh and J Field Programmed by D Basham M Punch S Rossi PRESENT NET WORTH RETURN ESTIMATES Subjective Estimates Prob Prol lt High 1 Cost Return Point Category Estimate PREPARATION COST 1 gt Light Shear Blading 1 110 00 1 140 00 IESTABLISHMENT COST 1 gt Manual 8 1000 Seadi ings ha 1 00 350 00 0 Ud l 0 95 Le puc 5 Ontario Standards Level For Success 0 65 Level For Failure 0 45 Expected Sto 1 0 40 9 95 0 10 0 90 0 35 x PRODUCT 1 gt cubic meter ha Amount S Unit Output Year of Foragaapi 4 00 8 00 0 10 0 90 00 ANALYSIS 2 B S BARE ROOT Rate of Interest Rate of Inflation Rotation Period 19 Years To Termination 191 Lag Ftom Prep Estab 0 Yrs From Prep To Survey 2 COSTS AND RETURN ESTIMATES 1 l Bubs Parimaga Cost Return Point m V ee Catego
26. eturn to file menu 8 From this point any operation can be performed 15 PROGRAM STRUCTURE SUMMARY AND Turbo Pascal Borland International Inc Scotts Valley California was the programming environment chosen for the FIDME PC prototype because of its increasing popularity among programmers in forestry its extensive libraries of graphics and text manipulation routines and its ability to compile large programs with ease As a first step toward the development of a prototype the existing model FIDME was converted from FORTRAN under the VAX VMS environment into Turbo Pascal underthe MS DOS operating system Corresponding runs of both programs each receiving identical input were used to compare accuracy and optimized through the elimination of redundancies and implementation of data structures not available under a FORTRAN environment New desirable features of the program are the generation of X Y plots on EGA VGA monitors on the Hewlett Packard HP 74754 plotter on the HP LaserJet HI and IV series printers series is also supported with proper memory and cartridges and to files for later output to LaserJet printers or other models of HP plotters using the HPGL language CONCLUSIONS 16 FIDME PC is a user friendly simulation model that will assist forest managers policy makers and administrators to make rational economic decisions based on personal experience and known facts With the aid of this d
27. ion survey to determine whether stand establishment was successful This is also usually under 5 years Costs and returns The number of possible costs returns for a particular type available in an analy is indicated in parentheses with the prompting of the name of the cost return e Initial Cost 0 3 Once the number of each cost return is specified the program will give a prompt for the type of estimate and for the amount of the cost return All costs returns can be expressed by either point estimate or subjective probability estimates A point estimate requires only one integer estimate while a subjective probability estimate requires a low a high and a minimum estimate as well as a probability entered in percent format of the cost return being lower than the low e and a probability of the cost return being lower than the high estimate estima Cost return labels Less than 75 characters describing the specific cost or return e g planting black spruce containers 1000 seedlings ha Use Ontario stocking standards To define a level of stand establishment other than the default Ontario stocking standards enter N at this prompt If you answered N to this prompt you will be asked to enter the expected stocking If a stand or plantation does not meet stocking standards it will be considered a failure FIDME PC will regenerate it up to three times before it rescarifies if necessary If the site does not produ
28. ization The Data DAT files are organized into three basic sections First is the Global Variable Section This is illustrated using EXAMPLEI DAT This section contains the following important data that are common to all the simulation runs First Example Number of Iterations 300 Number of Analyses 2 Random 1334 Economic Criterion The next section is the Analysis Specific Section This is where the title and specific numbers of costs and returns are specified This section begins with Analysis 1 PLANT J PINE Rate of Interest 6 0000 Rate of Inflation 1 0000 Rotation Period 70 Years to 70 Lag From Prep Estab 0 Years From Prep to Survey 2 Initial Costs 0 3 0 Prepatation Costs 0 3 1 Establishment Costs 0 3 1 Level of Establishment Specified Yes osts 0 8 Periodic Costs 0 8 0 Liquidation Costs 0 3 Annual Returns 0 8 Returns 0 8 Fin Returns 0 8 Terminal Returns 0 3 Products 0 8 reccs SEED J PINE Rate of Interest 6 0000 Rate of Inflation 1 0000 Rotation Period 70 Years to Termination 70 Lag From Prep To Estab 9 Yrs From Prep to Survey 2 Initial Costs 0 3 Preparation Costs 0 3 Establishment Costs 0 3 Level of Establishment Specified Y Annual Costs 0 8 osts 0 8 Liquidation Costs 0 3 Annual Returns 0 8 Periodic Returns 0 8 Final Ret
29. l for help on the MODE Configuring Serial Ports command Mode must be used first to set the serial port to communicate with the plotter This means that the user must know the baud rate parity data bits and stop bits settings of the plotter Then assuming the plotter is on Com2 and the file created using FIDME PC s Hard Copy File option is named EXAMPLE I PLT the file can be copied to the serial port At the DOS prompt type copy examplel plt com2 When the file is finished plotting DOS will report that one file was copied This method is recommended if the plotter connected to the system is over a network or if the plotter is not an HP 7475 APPENDIX 4 Common possible error types Before using the data file specified in Example Runs Section A to run the simulation FIDME PC checks the file to determine whether its data are valid If FIDME PC finds that the data file contains bad data it will provide an error message Be sure to read the error message and the analysis to which it refers along with the title of the cost or return that generated the error These messages are classified in two types ERROR and ERROR 2 In both instances FIDME PC returns to the editor on the line where the error occurred in order to fix the error Refer to Example Runs Section 5 for a detailed listing of all limits and requirements for the input data ERROR 1 Message 1 Message 2 Press any Key to enter the editor Generating
30. mates allows the user to incorporate personal experience and judgment into the analysis 12 For Serv Inf Rep 434 D Editing Existing Files 1 Before running FIDME PC make a copy of the example files to practice editing To back up the files type at the DOS prompt copy example dat edt and press lt ENTER gt 2 Replace example 1 with examplel edt when entering the data input file name and follow the instructions in Section A 1 to A 6 3 In response to Do You Wish To Edit This File Y N type Y and press lt ENTER gt 4 After a moment of initialization the top portion of EXAMPLEI EDT which was originally EXAMPLEI DAT and was renamed for editing purposes is on the screen ready to be edited 5 FIDME PC s editor displays the location of the end of line carriage return by displaying and designates the end of the file witha The line number being edited along with the column are displayed in the upper left border of the screen The bottom of the screen shows how to save and run save and return and return abort file Use the arrow keys to move the cursor around onthe screen When editing it is important not to change the format of the file only change numbers or titles that you entered If order or format is changed e g numeric to alphanumeric integer to real FIDME PC will abort or produce unreliable results To reduce chances of errors while editing FI
31. on A and the screen should look like Figure 4 Options are explained below Color Monitor If you type land press ENTER FIDME PC will produce a color coded graph of the tabular output that was just viewed on the monitor screen This option is a quick way of comparing alternative investments Once viewing the graph is completed press any key to return to the output options menu Hard Copy If you have access to an HP LaserJet printer or plotter type 2 and press ENTER This option be used to print write to a file that can be directly printed at a later date See Hard Copy The Hard Copy Option below for discussion on this option Summary File EXAMPLE1 OUT Choose this option by typing and pressing ENTER graph of the tabular output will be written to the output summary file chosen at the program run This graph be viewed on the screen or printed from the DOS environment by using the DOS type or print command Print Summary File Choose this option by typing and pressing P lt ENTER gt It will print the output summary file on the printer on the port specified using the FIDSETUP program To print the graph choose option 3 before choosing this option This will add the graph to the end of the output summary file before printing Restart Simulation This option R will restart FIDME PC from the main selection screen Quit Now This option Q will quit running FIDME PC The above option
32. onomic criteria FIDME PC will say which criterion will be used for the combined file To carry out the analysis with another criterion edit the combined file and change its criterion Can For Serv Inf Rep 434 2 Start FIDME PC and at the prompt Enter Name of Output Summary File type appendexp and at the prompt Enter Name of Data Input File type examplel 3 Respond to the input mode selection by typing 1to Use or Revise Existing Input File 4 You are now given the prompt Do You Wish to Append this File Y N Respond to this question by typing Y and pressing ENTER 6 The screen now looks similar to the one in Figure 5 except for the menu at the bottom of the figure Enter the full name of the file being appended to EXAMPLE APP including extension if it is other than If you have completed Section C type myfile If you have not completed that section use EXAMPLE2 If a file name is entered that does not exist or is invalid FIDME PC says so and gives a prompt to press any key to reenter the file name or type X to cancel the append operation 7 Assuming that the combination of the two files does not exceed four analyses FIDME PC will notify you that the append operation is complete The file appended to EXAMPLEI DAT has been copied to the same name with a BAC extension You are now given three choices Enter the editor Run the analysis R
33. original input file Can For Serv Inf Rep 434 These the default standards used by FIDME PC when you answer Y in the above prompts as follows Ontario stocking standards Level for success 0 6500 Level for failure 0 4500 Can For Serv Inf Rep 434 Analysis title Less than 15 characters giving a specific title to each analysis e g Plant J Pine Interest rate An integer between 0 and 20 giving the rate of interest e g 6 6 or 0 06 Inflation rate An integer between 0 and 20 giving the rate of inflation e g 6 6 or 0 06 Rotation period An integer indicating the number of years from stand establishment to final harvest which is less than the years to termination given the rotation age e g if years to termination are 180 and rotation age is 60 then there will be three rotations before termination Years to termination An integer giving the number of years until the forest stand is liquidated or converted to other use It is best if this number is a multiple of the rotation period Lag from preparation to establishment An integer indicating the number of years between site preparation and the establishment of a stand g number of years between shear blading and planting This is usually less than 5 years Years from establishment to survey An integer number indicating the number of years between stand establishment i e planting or seeding and regenerat
34. ortcommunication with an HP plotter and to select the printer port FIDMEPC INI The setup ASCII text file containing the serial port configuration and the parallel port selection Editing this file with an external editor other than FIDSETUP EXE is not recommended If this file is edited directly with some program other than FIDSETUP EXE errors can occur If this happens delete the file FIDMEPC INI and run FIDSETUP EXE FIDMEPC INI will be recreated with default settings INSTALLATION EXAMPLE i DAT Four example data files are included to illustrate each of the four economic criteria available and various other features of FIDME PC The first three examples willrun or XT under 10 minutes using an 80386 33 with a math coprocessor the simulation time is under 3 minutes It might take severalhours however torun EXAMPLE4 DATonan ATor XT using an80386 33 with a math coprocessor the simulation time is within 20 minutes EX i OUT The results or output files of the above four examples You can replace with valid hard drive on your System To install FIDME PC on a different drive or subdirectory the copy command must be modified accordingly If the distribution diskette must be inserted into and the blank diskette into make the appropriate changes in this command line If your system has only one floppy drive place the distribution diskette into the drive
35. outine at this point See Appendix 3 for information on how to print graphs from the files created by this option 2 HP LaserJet Choose option L to plot a graph to an HP LaserJet printer See Setting up FIDME PC for Peripherals for valid HP LaserJet models With this option you can choose plotting onto the default port selected via FIDSETUP EXE or to a new port Press lt ESC gt to exit the plotting routine if desired Whether the default port or another is chosen follow the instructions on the screen and continue When all the plot information has been sent to the printer a message that the plot is complete will be displayed on the screen To terminate or pause the plotting press lt ESC gt and wait a few seconds for a response The option to terminate the plot or resume plotting will appear 3 HP Plotter Choose the option P to plot a graph of the output to an HP 7475 plotter Press lt ESC gt to return to the previous menu if you don t want to use this option The default communication parameters are displayed on the top of the screen as they were set when FIDSETUP EXE was executed To change these parameters follow the instructions on the s If at any time except while entering the baud rate you wish to cancel your changes to the default settings press lt ESC gt If the default settings are suitable follow the instructions on the screen to continue not cancelled the complete plot message will a
36. ppear when the ished sending the information to the plotter Cancelling the Plotting To pause or cancel the plotting for any reason press lt ESC gt and wait for a response There should be no errors during plotting but should one occur and the computer is not responding or the plotter is shut off in the middle of the plotting press the combination lt CTRL END gt to immediately terminate the plotting Shutting off the plotter while printing is not recommended because in some cases the computer will only respond to the keyboard if the plotter is on See Appendix 3 for the required and optimal inputs for each of the four economic criteria C Creating New Data Files via Interactive Mode Repeat Sections A 1 to A 3 but instead of entering EXAMPLE in Section 3 enter myfile for the output summary file and data input file It is recommended that these files have the same name i e MYFILE OUT and MYFILE DAT to keep your directory organized 2 The screen should now look like Figure 1 except that EXAMPLEI has been replaced with MYFILE Respond now to the prompt at the bottom of the screen by typing 0 and pressing ENTER to activate FIDME PC s interactive input routines 3 A series of screens prompting for analysis or alternative investments and their ciated costs returns will follow The prompts are logical self explanatory and easy to follow Part 5 below gives a detailed summary of allowable in
37. produce acceptable stocking and were therefore regarded as complete failures 9 Once the simulation is complete the computer beeps to alert the user to Press any Key to Continue This clears the information window and gives a prompt to enter a probability interval for the tabular output By typing 5 and pressing lt ENTER gt the output is displayed in two consecutive screens with 21 probability levels 0 100 Typing 10 and pressing lt ENTER gt will display a single screen table with 11 probability levels 0 100 Using 10 as an example yields results as in Figure 3 Economie Criteria obability OF PLANT Pi Exceeding 187 52 189 04 010 106 72 113 48 020 88 98 9478 030 7992 040 69 78 7676 0 50 6272 11 57 060 5665 66 07 070 5294 00 4915 5126 0 4655 5276 100 33 86 3570 133 Percentage of Iterations Abandoned Mit any key to continue Figure 3 Tabular output screen A detailed description and interpretation of tabular output is found in Payandeh and Basham 1992 For example the second row of the output indicates that there is a 10 chance that the future cost of pulpwood will exceed 106 72 m for planting jack pine and 113 48 m for seeding jack pine Conversely there is 90 chance that the future cost per m of pulpwood would be equal to or less than these figures for planting and seeding jack pine Row 3 of the tabl
38. put ranges and their meanings 4 Entering xxx at any time during the creation of the input data file will abort the file creation and restart the program If an error has been made e g a percentage value was entered incorrectly having to abort the file creation can be avoided by continuing to enter the data When the simulation starts press lt ESC gt R to restart the program Reenter the file name that had been previously entered and use the editor to correct the mistakes see Editing Existing Files Section D 5 Speci mode input variables and data type descriptions for FIDME PC s interactive Run identification Less than 21 characters in length describing the simulation run Number of iterations An integer between and 500 used to set the number of times FIDME PC is required to simulate the alternative investments involved and their associated calculations Number of analyses Number of alternative investments to be compared in each run Random number seed An integer from 32768 to 32767 with an optimal range between 688 to 28465 used to generate a sequence of uniformly distributed random numbers Economic criteria An integer code between 1 and 4 indicating which of the four economic criteria is to be used for the analysis Descriptions of these options are given on the screen Note that when two input fields with different economic criteria are appended FIDME PC uses the economic criteria of the
39. rial port acceptable serial ports to Com4 Baud rate acceptable baud rates are 110 150 300 600 1200 4800 9600 Parity acceptable parities are even odd none Data bi eptable data bits are 7 8 Stop bi eptable stop bits are 1 2 If you have an HP 7475A plotter attached to your system you can plot graphs with FIDME PC see Section If you have a plotter that uses the HPGL language FIDME PC can plot graphs with it see Section What You Need to Know to Print Out the Results Parallel ports acceptable parallel ports Lptl to Lpt3 FIDME PC can plot graphs on all versions of the HP LaserJet III or IV Laser printer It can also plot graphs on an HP LaserJet or with an installed HPGL 2 cartridge and megabyte of memory see Section B EXAMPLE RUNS A Using Existing Input Files To demonstrate the applications of FIDME PC a simple example is used to compare the cost effectiveness of planting versus seeding jack pine Pinus banksiana Lamb to produce pulp wood 1 Change the working directory to FIDME or the one containing the installed version of FIDME PC Next run FIDME PC by typing fidmepe and pressing ENTER at the DOS prompt 2 After a moment of initialization the title screen should be displayed As indicated on the bottom of the title screen pressing any key will continue to the first menu 3 The main selection screen is now displayed It should look
40. ry lEstimate Prob i Prob lt Low lt High Min Light Shear Blading 230 00 140 00 si IB ABLIS HMENT 1 gt Planting 1000 250 00 350 09 Ontario Standards 0 65 Level For Failure 0 45 PRODUCT 1 Amount 150 00 Forecasts 10 4 00 8 00 1 0 90 Output ANALYSIS 3 NTAINER Rate of Interest Rate of Inflation Rotation Period Years To Termination Lag From Prep To Estab Yrs From Prep To Survey Subjective Estimates Prob Prob lt Low Cost Return Category i Heavy Shear Blading 250 00 320 00 0 10 Planting 8 1000 Container Stock ha 140 00 230 00 0 10 STOCKING STANDARD ntario Standards l Level For Success 0 65 Level For Failure 0 45 Expected Stocking 55 1 l 0 45 A ae PERIODIC COST 1 gt Herbicide application 1 5 k Beginning 3 Ending 10 Interval l if 35 00 60 00 PRODUCT 41 Amount Pulpwood Cubic Meter ha RESULTS ANALYSIS Economic Criteria PRESENT NET WORTH Prob of l l Exceeding J P BARE ROOTIB S BARE ROOTIW S CONTAINER snatecessssnsessssts 0 00 1174 35 670 47 1244 27 0 10 608 76 359 77 694 53 0 20 488 19 261 24 568 34 0 30
41. s are simple and straightforward with the exception of Option 2 which is described below Press lt ESC gt to pause and optionally stop the printing at any point Hard Copy The Hard Copy Option Unlike the other options the hard copy option does not produce immediate results In this option press lt ESC gt to return to the previous menu screen You now have the following three options of where you may plot the graph 1 File Selecting the file option F provides two secondary options of what type of file to plot to an HP LaserJet file or an HP plotter file Press lt ESC gt at this point to return to the previous menu After the proper output format is chosen FIDME PC then gives a prompt for a file name Enter a valid file name To exit the plotting press lt 5 gt Can For Serv Inf Rep 434 ensure compalibility with plotter other than an HP 7475A this option should always be used FIDME PC has only been tested with an HP 7475A plotter connected to its serial port It should however work with other plotters that use the HPGL language and are connected to the serial port Can For Serv Inf Rep 434 Otherwise press any key to continue with a valid file name Ifthe file name already exists FIDME PC prompts the user asking if they wish to overwrite the file Choose N to reenter another file name Y to overwrite the previous file or press lt ESC gt to exit the plotting r
42. similar to Figure 1 which is a prompt to Enter Name of Output Summary File At this prompt enter the name of a file for which FIDME PC is waiting to write the summary of output and expected results For the first example type examplel and press ENTER A prompt will appear to Enter Name of Data Input File This file should be created to contain details of economic criteria number of investment alternatives to be compared rotation ages and initial annual periodic and final costs and returns Canada FIDME PC INPUT SECTION FILE SELECTION AND MODE Natural Resoi Region Enter Name of Output Summary EXAMPLE1 OUT Enter Name of Data Input File EXAMPLEI DAT Input Mode Selection 0 Create new input file 1 Use or revise existing input file Your choice Figure 1 Main selection screen Can For Serv Inf Rep 434 To correct mistakes entering file names press lt ESC gt and follow the red options menu at the bottom of the screen Press Q to quit R to restart or C to continue If no mistakes were involved so far press C to continue Pressing ESC for 5 or 6 will again give you the options of quitting restarting or continuing The simulation can be stopped if necessary by pressing the ESC key This will give the option of R to restart the program from 3 or C to continue with the
43. t least one cost category At lease one return category Internal rate of return At least one analysis At least one cost and At least one cost or return return If discounted costs exceed returns output will be expressed in negative rates APPENDIX 2 Input output file conventions 1 Entering File Names When a file name is entered into FIDME PC the program looks for a three letter file name extension If this extension is not present FIDME PC will attach the extension OUT onto the output summary file and onto the input data file If the name entered is longer than eight characters FIDME PC will take only the first eight characters as the first part of the file name If the name entered has a period in it the first three characters after the period will be the extension otherwise FIDME PC will append the appropriate extension onto it If an invalid file name has been entered e g one with symbols such as 1 9 or the program will reprompt you for both file names 2 File Types FIDME PC uses ASCII text files for its DAT and OUT files both of which can be edited with an ASCII editor or the editor supplied with FIDME PC It is strongly recommended that users do not edit the DAT files with any editor other than the one included with FIDME PC because the addition of new lines can cause the file to become unreadable for analysis by FIDME PC 3 Data File Organ
44. urns 0 8 Terminal Returns 0 3 Products 0 8 The third section the Cost Return Estimates Section contains the costs and returns for all the analyses beginning with those of Analysis To determine the order of costs returns the file is organized in the same order in which the cost returns are declared in the second section of the data file 1 initial costs if any site preparation costs if any etc Note that the numbers in the left column specify the estimate type 0 point estimate subjective probability estimate Light Shear Blading Low Est High Est Prob Low Prob High Absolute Minimum 1 110 0000 140 0000 0 1000 0 9500 100 0000 Manual Planting 1000 Seedlings ha Low Est High Est Prob Low Prob High Absolute Minimum 1 250 0000 350 0000 0 0500 0 9500 20 0000 Ontario Standards Level for Success 6500 Level for Failure 9 4500 Expected stacking level Low Est High Est Prob Low Prob High Absolute Minimum 1 0 4000 0 9500 0 1000 0 9000 0 3500 Pulpwood Cubic Low Est High Est Prob Low Prob High Absolute Minimum 1 200 0000 300 0000 0 0500 0 9000 150 0000 0 0 0000 Year Price Forecast 0 hear Blading Low Est High Est Prob Low Prob High Absolute Minimum 1 250 0000 320 0000 0 1000 9500 230 0000 8 200000 Seeds ha High Est 1 30 0000 60 0000 High Absolute Minimum 000 20 0000 Ontario Standards Level for Success 0 6500
45. ve economic feasibility of various forestry investments FIDME PC comes with four typical examples to demonstrate the utilities and features of this program These examples combined with a user friendly method to create specific models make FIDME PC a highly versatile investment analyzer The objective of this manual is to provide the user with a complete description and tutorial on how to use FIDME PC s powerful investment modeling techniques A list of additional literature is provided in the bibliography for users interested in a more in depth understanding of investment analysis under risk and uncertainty GETTING STARTED SYSTEIVI REQUIREIVIENTS Addition of an 80x87 math coprocessor will increase execution speed noticeably but is not essential To install and run FIDME PC successfully acomputer system is needed with the following hardware 1 A personal computer that is AT or XT compatible uses an 80x86 or 8088x8086 processor 2 Agraphics adapter and monitor supporting an EGA VGA or SVGA graphics card 640K of memory installed One 5 1 4 inch floppy drive 5 DOS 2 0 or higher THE DISTRIBUTION DISKETTE Can For Serv Inf Rep 434 The distribution diskette a 5 1 4 inch double Kb floppy diskette contains the following file ed double density DS DD 360 FIDMEPC EXE The FIDME PC main executable file FIDSETUP EXE The setup executable file to configure serial p
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