Diagnostics for Adaptation in Action: User Guide
Contents
1. 006 Nursey Bray M Pecl GT Frusher S Gardner C Haward M Hobday AJ Jennings S Punt AE Revill H van Putten 2012 Communicating climate change Climate change risk perceptions and rock lobster fishers Tasmania Marine Policy 36 3 753 759 doi 10 1016 j marpol 2011 10 015 Ostrom E 2005 Understanding Institutional Diversity Princeton University Press New Jersey Ostrom E 2007 A diagnostic approach for going beyond panaceas Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104 39 15181 15187 doi 10 1073 pnas 0702288104 Ostrom E 2009 A general framework for analyzing sustainability of social ecological systems Science 325 5939 419 422 doi 10 1126 science 1172133 Pecl G Jennings S Frusher SD Le Bouhellec B Sullivan A Hoshino E Fowler T Gardner C Hamer P Hobday A Jenkins G Linnane A Mayfield S Marzloff M Mundy C Stuart Smith J Tuck G Ward T 2012 Draft Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Four Key Commercial Fisheries in South East Australia Part 1 Vulnerability Assessment FRDC Project 2011 039 Taroona Hobart Institute for Marine amp Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Pecl GT Moltschaniwskyj NA Tracey S Jordan AR 2004 Inter annual plasticity of squid life history and population structure ecological and management implications Oecologia 139 4 515 524 Pecl G Jennings S Frusher SD Le Bouhellec B Sullivan A Hoshino E Fowler T Gardner C Hamer P Hobday A Jenkins G Linnane A Mayfield2. S Marzloff M Mundy C Stuart Smith J Tuck G Ward T 2009 The east coast Tasmanian rock lobster fishery vulnerability to climate change impacts and adaptation response options Report to the Department of Climate Change Australia Sainsbury K 2010 Review of ecolabelling schemes for fish and fishery products from capture fisheries FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper No 533 Food and Agriculture Organisation FAO Rome Italy Sandstr m A Rova C 2010 Adaptive co management networks a comparative analysis of two fishery conservation areas in Sweden Ecology 4 Society Sissenwine MP Shepherd JG 1987 An alternative perspective on recruitment overfishing and biological reference points Can J Fish Aquat Sci 44 913 918 Wiber MG Rudd MA Pinkerton E Charles AT Bull A 2010 Coastal management challenges from a community perspective The problem of stealth privatization in a Canadian fishery Marine Policy 34 598 605 Zhang J Fleming J Goericke R 2012 Fishermen s perspectives on climate variability Marine Policy 36 2 466 472 doi 10 1016 j marpol 2011 06 001 Contact arnmbr arnmbr org 03 6226 2134 www nccarf edu au marine 21 22 Notes Notes
3. and e in describing the social context it is import to clarify the different positions held by stakeholders and therefore describe rather than resolve conflict This first descriptive stage allows all stakeholders to engage in a dialogue about the system without jumping to conclusions about what needs to be done by whom In later stages key stakeholders are assisted to define adaptation pathways Adaptation pathways include ways of identifying strategic and tactical adaptation measures as well as barriers and constraints that can be more or less easily overcome Diagnostic process Description Describe the structure and function of a particular fishery as a system including biological ecological economic human and social components or sub systems all relevant stakeholders perspectives Deliberation and Diagnosis Identify which aspects of this broad system can be most effectively improved through specific forms of collective action Action or purposeful non action Develop a legitimate and clear plan of action as a working document that will assist with ongoing adaptation in the particular fishery which includes strategic and tactical adaptation measures barriers and constraints that can be more or less easily overcome Diagnostic process 5 Refining amp Embedding Adaptation 5 Defining Adaptation Pathways l Inter disciplinary system description 2 Collaborative character
4. 2009 Report Card There is now striking evidence of extensive southward movements of tropical fish and plankton species in southeast Australia declines in abundance of temperate species and the first signs of the effect of ocean acidification on marine species with shells The report card highlights that the Australian science community is widely engaged in research monitoring and observing programs to increase our understanding of climate change impacts and inform management The comprehensive information shows that adaptation planning is already underway from seasonal forecasts for fisheries and aquaculture to climate proofing of breeding sites for turtles and seabirds The up to date information presented will assist ocean managers and policy makers to improve and justify actions to help our marine ecosystems adapt to the threat of climate change Markets Toolkit Visit lt gt This web based toolkit provides decision makers and researchers and interested members of the public with an overview of the ways in which economic market based instruments and policy can be used in the marine environment to incentivise private sector adaptation to climate change weAdapt s Review of Adaptation Decision Tools Visit lt A r gt gt o e ES SOE er N y _0 SE gt Zr 4 Credit Tasmanian Seafood Industry Council Contact arnmbr arnmbr org 03 6226 2134 www nccarf edu au marine 19 Relevant research pu
5. NCCARF National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility Diagnostics for Adaptation in Action User Guide E Ogier P Leith G Pecl M Haward J Davidson amp E Hoshino UTA Research Facility Adaptation Research Network MARINE BIODIVERSITY AND RESOURCES Adaptation Research Network Marine Biodiversity amp Resources 2012 This work is copyright Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968 no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission from the copyright holder Please cite this report as E Ogier P Leith G Pecl M Haward J Davidson E Hoshino 2012 Diagnostics for Adaptation in action User Guide Adaptation Research Network for Marine Biodiversity and Resources Australia pp23 Acknowledgments This work was carried out with the financial support from the Australian Government Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency through the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility The role of NCCARF is to lead the research community in a national interdisciplinary effort to generate the information needed by decision makers in government business and in vulnerable sectors and communities to manage the risk of climate change impacts Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed in this publication not necessarily the views of the Commonwealth and the Commonwealth does not accept responsibility for any information or advice cont
6. ain linkages within a system can be described as network structures either mathematically or in terms of linkages social capital collaboration or trust Operational Supply networks are not so important but the networks between government industry research and environmental NGOs are important in the context of adaptive management of fisheries Sandstr m and Rova 2010 Systems of rights vary from open access common pool resources to highly structured individual property rights most commonly individual quota management systems which are closely monitored and highly regulated The flexibility to adjust property rights is important for adaptation where there are few fishers with tightly held property rights these can have an enormous effect on how adaptation can proceed Grafton 2010 Grafton et al 2007 Local informal rules rather than rules enshrined in legislation and policy documents can be important in shaping behaviour If the divergence between these is significant then formal adaptation measures may be impeded Wiber et al 2010 Applies where fisheries are managed under collaborative or co management arrangements Rules and regulations imposed through legislation and policy for example size limits catch quotas entry requirements The extent to which the design of these rules either limits or facilitates adaptation cannot be underestimated Daw et al 2009 The level and effectiveness of monitoring enforcement and c
7. ained herein Cover images L R 1 amp 7 E Poloczanska 2 3 amp 9 A Hobday 4 5 6 amp 8 Tasmanian Seafood Industry Council Contents ITLFOOIGLLONI aee eree ee ee re 2 Aims of the diagnostic APO een 3 DIAGAOSIC DrOCOS Staaten ee re een 4 Stages of the diagnostic APPFOSEN En een 6 Variables for Fisheries Systems 2 202240220002000 000nnn nun o nenn nenn nenne nnne nenne 12 NA o AA 19 Contact arnmbr arnmbr org 03 6226 2134 www nccarf edu au marine Introduction This User Guide provides an approach to climate adaptation for Australian fisheries It has been developed by members of the Marine Adaptation Network drawing on research and practice directed towards workable adaptation pathways that can be applied to Australian fisheries and marine resources Such an approach has led to a structured six stage process through which Australian fisheries scientists fishers fisheries managers and other key stakeholders can together define and collectively agree to adaptation pathways see Figure 1 and Table 1 This approach centres on three core components Fisheries as social ecological systems Fisheries are complex systems The impacts of climate change and any planned adaptations to address those impacts necessarily include social economic political cultural and environmental dimensions For this reason simplistic or one size fits all adaptation strategies are not likely to be effec
8. bility in recruitment for instance In other cases it may be that an industry lacks leadership or is factionalised and cannot effectively organise At a minimum the diagnostic process is likely to improve adaptive capacity generally and allows for the creation of a watching brief on potential risk factors and opportunities associated with external drivers of change Credit G Pecl The aim of the diagnostic approach is to enable key stakeholders in a fishery to plan for climate adaptation The objectives of the diagnostic approach are to 1 effectively describe the structure and function of a particular fishery as a system including its biological ecological economic human and social components then 2 identify which aspects of this broad system can be most effectively improved through specific forms of collective action and 3 develop a legitimate and clear plan of action as a working document that will assist with ongoing adaptation in a fishery The approach described here is a stepwise process that can be applied to different fisheries to plan for adaptation in the face of global change The approach seeks to firstly describe system characteristics in a way that includes all relevant stakeholders perspectives noting that e in analysing biophysical risks the approach is not oriented to making recommendations but identifying where potential risks exist what is at stake for whom in relation to those risks
9. blications Allison EH Horemans B 2006 Putting the principles of the sustainable livelihoods approach into fisheries development policy and practice Marine Policy 30 757 766 Allison EH Perry AL Badjeck M C Neil Adger W Brown K Conway D Halls AS Pilling GM Reynolds JD Andrew NL Dulvy NK 2009 Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries Fish and Fisheries 10 2 173 196 doi 10 1111 j 1467 2979 2008 00310 x Barange M Perry RI 2009 Physical and ecological impacts of climate change relevant to marine and inland capture fisheries and aquaculture In K Cochrane C De Young Soto D Bahri T eds Climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture overview of current scientific knowledge FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper No 530 Fisheries and Agriculture Organisation Rome pp 7 106 Brandt US Kronbak LG 2010 On the stability of fishery agreements under exogenous change An example of agreements under climate change Fisheries Research 101 1 2 11 19 doi 10 1016 j fishres 2009 08 012 Chick RC 2010 Batch tagging blacklip abalone Haliotis rubra for identification of hatchery reared individuals on natural coastal reefs in New South Wales Australia J Shellfish Res 29 1 209 215 doi 10 2983 035 029 0117 Cinner JE Folke C Daw T Hicks CC 2011 Responding to change Using scenarios to understand how socioeconomic factors may influence amplifying or dampen
10. cult to monitor than in smaller contained resource systems such as embayment fisheries Miller 2007 Infrastructure and technology can affect efficiency of resource use The availability and location of facilities may inhibit or enhance adaptive capacity of fishers to respond to range shifts in target species Madin et al 2012 Production over time will affect the size of a sector and therefore the degree to which livelinoods are dependent on the system More productive systems will tend to have ability to recover from low to high abundance in a relatively short period of time but people depending on the system may lack ability to adjust their business practice in the short run Fr on et al 2008 Seasonal and inter annual variability in the productivity of a fishery will tend to result in diversification of livelihoods Strength of equilibrium in the system i e the breadth of a stability domain and strength of attractor may be low for systems nearing thresholds of tolerance coral reefs in relation to bleaching high for those with wider tolerance ranges pelagic migratory fishes or somewhere in between Difficult to determine especially where data is not available Factors include the level of system complexity visibility and capacity in monitoring and understanding system dynamics which determine the ability to predict how climate change and extreme events may impact the system Indicators of the system are essential to predictab
11. daptive capacity For instance adaptive capacity may be higher under mature or emerging economies than immature or declining economies Allison et al 2009 Daw et al 2009 Indicator of socio economic viability and therefore broader adaptive capacity of the social system surrounding a sector Allison et al 2009 and an indicator of long term changes in the system Sub variables include ageing dwindling population outmigration rapid population growth employment trends The stability of government and the continuity of institutions organisations and structures of government as well as policy setting and instruments may assist planned adaptation Conversely existing arrangements may constrain adaptation Grafton 2010 climatic changes which cause resource rents to decrease have been found to reduce the likelihood of stable fishery agreements Brandt and Kronbak 2010 The existence of government settlement policies in a coastal region can influence the ability of coastal communities to relocate inland Brunner et al 2004 The level of uptake of certification labelling and other voluntary mechanisms can drive improved management monitoring and innovation around environmental performance Certification systems are potentially key instruments for adaptive change and may give market advantage Gale and Haward 2011 Sainsbury 2010 Strength of media to affect markets and political decisions can be both positive and negative for mana
12. ents with the biology of lobsters and the manner in which they are harvested eg catch composition and catch rates Using this information the existing stock assessment model was modified to project forward and evaluate the likely exploitable biomass and egg production levels for two climate change scenarios The next step would be to use these understandings along with those form Stage 1 to characterise the system drivers collaboratively thereby beginning to define the most appropriate points of intervention 6 what matters for climate adaptation pa Credit Tasmanian Seafood Industry Council Contact arnmbr arnmbr org 03 6226 2134 www nccarf edu au marine Stages of the diagnostic approach 3 Analysis and Grounding OBJECTIVE OUTPUTS 1 Identify and clarify the state of current knowledge in Short report outlining relation to uncertainties and divergent perspectives 1 of participants about the constraints and enablers of adaptation within the fishery social ecological system 2 Typify the fishery social ecological system in terms of constraints and enablers of adaptation Include differing views RATIONALE Common ground and differences in mental models and perspectives are noted and clarified but there is no attempt here to reach consensus at this stage PROCESSES Research team to 1 address key concerns raised in workshop 1 through desktop research and or more targeted em
13. er ability to observe change A short history of use may lead to more openness to innovation or may lead to inappropriate use These more local variables may be more informative about adaptive capacity Zhang et al 2012 Nursey Bray et al 2012 Location may be important to livelihood options where there is reliance on a particular species of fish e g tuna Allison and Horemans 2006 The ability to collaborate within sectors and between stakeholders often hinges on competent and committed leadership Entrepreneurial leadership Young 1991 within government and key stakeholder groups can help build capacity and foster adaptation Changing fishing and management practices in response to climate driven changes can be impeded by long established norms The strength of linkages and bonds within a group which reflect reciprocity and trust is fundamental to self organisation and facilitates adaptation Sandstr m and Rova 2010 The level of understanding of dynamism equilibrium and potential for change in the fishery SES It is critical that there is coherency of mental models among resource users and managers In the context of climate change adaptation may be impeded by lack of legitimacy of climate science and projected impacts on fish stocks Nursey Bray et al 2012 Glenn et al 2012 Absolute dependence on a resource as a livelihood strategy can either limit or constrain adaptation A variety of sub variables may reflect these constrai
14. es The analysis included a description of the management systems and governance across the jurisdictions to underpin the scenario development and social risk assessment This provides an one stop overview of each fishery system in an accessible format to begin discussion about entry points for adaptation 2 Collate and synthesise secondary social economic and biophysical data and publications 4 Analyse results being inclusive of different data and view points using a rapid Delphi process or similar Linstone and Turoff 1975 Scope your system set the scene amp build the team Credit Institute for Marine amp Antarctic Studies UTAS Stages of the diagnostic approach 2 Collaborative characterisation OBJECTIVE OUTPUTS 1 Work collectively with fishery stakeholders to Workshop report outlining characterise system change and key sources of variability 2 Determine the relative influence of variables important to adaptation RATIONALE Deliberative process to characterise the fishery social ecological system begins to embed adaptation planning Ensures values assumptions and divergent positions are made apparent PROCESSES Workshop 1 at which the following steps are undertaken collectively 1 highlight contemporary and potential system changes risks opportunities and uncertainties associated with climate variability and other major drivers within fishery social ecological
15. f 2 and 3 order consensual statements and variables N 2 the relative importance of 2 and 3 order variables RATIONALE Revise or re affirm levels of agreement or disagreement EXAMPLE OF DATA KNOWLEDGE with key contested and consensual statements and GENERATED relative importance of variables The East Coast Tasmanian Rock Lobster Fishery Vulnerability Assessment 2009 included PROCESSES a risk perception study workshop plus in depth key informant interviews which identified key constraining or influential variables affecting autonomous adaptation of fishers and the vulnerability of the fishery The sort of 2 Use the survey instrument to approach we suggest can link such detailed information from group processes with broader perspectives and concerns of a larger groups or population 1 Survey fishers and other key stakeholders outside workshop setting using a computer assisted telephone interview CATI e measure levels of agreement with key contested and consensual statements that resolve from the workshop process and e determine the relative importance of 2 Y and 3 order variables identified as important in the workshop process Do we agree E gt N Credit Tasmanian Seafood Industry Council Contact arnmbr arnmbr org 03 6226 2134 www nccarf edu au marine 10 Stages of the diagnostic approach 5 Defining Adaptation Pathways OBJECTIVE 1 Develop a clear depiction of adap
16. gement of marine systems i e can lead to rapid changes and imposition of politically tenable but unsustainable solutions Sullivan 1999 Aslin and Byron 2001 Can influence perceptions of climate change and the need to effect a response Second order variables Resource System RS RS1 Sector e g water forests pasture fish RS2 Clarity of system boundaries RS3 Size of resource system RS4 Human constructed facilities RS5 Productivity of system RS6 Equilibrium properties RS7 Predictability of system dynamics RS9 Location Interpretation in the context of adaptation to climate change in fisheries systems Sectors include conservation management capture fisheries commercial recreational and artisanal aquaculture and tourism Spatial ecological social and organisational boundaries of systems may be well defined or otherwise as may access to the resource system and property rights of users For instance large open access systems may experience lack of clarity of communication between users Fidelman et al 2012 Spatial extent of the resource system negatively influences the capacity to manage the system which in the marine context relies on communication networks and technology to make the resource system visible and therefore tractable to managers and users Climate driven changes in larger marine resource systems such as pelagic migratory fisheries involving multiple jurisdictions are more diffi
17. ility Marine systems have traditionally been lacking indicators because of the high cost or technical infeasibility of procuring indicators Important to adaptation because it underpins scientific tractability of climate change Nursey Bray et al 2012 Zhang et al 2012 Miller et al 2010 Location in relation to markets is important Greater distances to markets means reduced options for finding alternative markets for new target species in response to climate driven range shifts Daw et al 2009 15 Second order variables Resource Units RU RU1 Resource unit mobility RU2 Growth or replacement rate RU3 Interaction among resource units RU4 Economic value RU5 Number of units RU6 Distinctive markings RU7 Spatial amp temporal distribution 16 Interpretation in the context of adaptation to climate change in fisheries systems Level of mobility of marine organisms is negatively related to the capacity to monitor and determine population dynamics This has significant implications for identifying potential adaptation pathways for capture and aquaculture fisheries de Young et al 2008 For instance the impact of climatic changes on farmed oysters is more easily predicted than the impact on migratory fish species such as tuna or species with complex life histories such as lobster which migrate over great distances and depths A major determinant of productivity and of the speed of recovery of a stock in respo
18. ing exploitation feedbacks among Tanzanian fishers Global Environ Change 21 1 7 12 doi 10 1016 j gloenvcha 2010 09 001 Daw T Adger WN Brown K Badjeck M C 2009 Climate change and capture fisheries potential impacts adaptation and mitigation In K Cochrane C De Young Soto D Bahri T eds Climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture overview of current scientific knowledge FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper No 530 Fisheries and Agriculture Organisation Rome pp 107 150 de Young B Barange M Beaugrand G Harris R Perry RI Scheffer M Werner F 2008 Regime shifts in marine ecosystems detection prediction and management Trends Ecol Evol 23 7 402 409 Douglas M 1985 Risk Acceptability According to the Social Sciences Russel Sage Foundation New York Fenichel EP Tsao JI Jones M and Hickling G 2008 Real Options for Precautionary Fisheries Management Fish and Fisheries 9 121 137 Fidelman P Evans L Fabinyi M Foale S Cinner J Rosen F 2012 Governing large scale marine commons Contextual challenges in the Coral Triangle Marine Policy 36 1 42 53 doi 10 1016 j marp0I1 2011 03 007 Freon P Bouchon M Mullon C Garcia C and iquen M 2008 Interdecadal variability of anchoveta abundance and overcapacity of the fishery in Peru Progress in Oceanography 79 401 412 Gale F Haward M 2011 Global Commodity Governance State Responses to Sustainable Forest and Fisheries Certificat
19. ion International Political Economy Series Palgrave Macmillan Great Britain Glenn H Tingley D S nchez Maro o S Holm D Kell L Padda G Runar Edvardsson I Asmundsson J Conides A Kapiris K Bezabih M Wattage P Kuikka S 2012 Trust in the fisheries scientific community Marine Policy 36 1 54 72 doi 10 1016 j marpol 2011 03 008 Grafton QR 2010 Adaptation to climate change in marine capture fisheries Marine Policy 34 3 606 615 doi 10 1016 j marpol 2009 11 011 Grafton RQ Kompas T McLoughlin R Rayns N 2007 Benchmarking for fisheries governance Marine Policy 31 4 470 479 doi 10 1016 j marpol 2006 12 007 Gullet W 2008 Fisheries law in Australia LexisNexis Butterworths Chatswood NSW Halpern BS Longo C Hardy D McLeod KL Samhouri JF Katona SK Kleisner K Lester SE O Leary J Ranelletti M Rosenberg AA Scarborough C Selig ER Best BD Brumbaugh DR Chapin FS Crowder LB Daly KL Doney SC Elfes C Fogarty MJ Gaines SD Jacobsen Kl Karrer LB Leslie HM Neeley E Pauly D Polasky S Ris B St Martin K Stone GS Sumaila UR Zeller D 2012 An index to assess the health and benefits of the global ocean Nature 488 7413 615 620 doi 10 1038 nature11397 Johnson CR Banks SC Barrett NS Cazassus F Dunstan PK Edgar GJ Frusher SD Gardner C Haddon M Helidoniotis F Hill KL Holbrook NJ Hosie GW Last PR Ling SD Melbourne Thomas J Miller K Pecl GT Richardson AJ Ridgway KR Rintoul SR Ri
20. isation 3 Analysis amp Grounding 4 Survey Validation Figure 1 The diagnostic approach and six stages for developing adaptation pathways for a fishery Contact arnmbr arnmbr org 03 6226 2134 www nccarf edu au marine Stages of the diagnostic approach 1 Inter disciplinary system description OBJECTIVE OUTPUTS First pass scoping of a specific fishery social ecological 1 A preliminary description of the fishery social system ecological system and the settings which structure action within it RATIONALE 2 Working hypotheses about 1 Identifies key variables see Table 2 which are crucial e the structure and function of the fishery to e key variables that are crucial to adaptation and e adaptation and e appropriate forms of engagement e engaging relevant networks of people 2 Builds inter disciplinary capacity and social capital EXAMPLE OF DATA KNOWLEDGE PROCESSES GENERATED 1 Establish an inter disciplinary team whose expertise The Draft Climate Change Vulnerability include social economic and biophysical research Assessment for Four Key Commercial specific to the system Fisheries in South East Australia included desktop analysis of the main ecological impacts of climate change and key social and economic components of the 3 Identify and interview key informants to identify main snapper abalone rock lobster and blue variables that will enable and constrain adaptation grenadier fisheri
21. nse to overharvesting or following substantial shocks such as extreme weather events through replacement or recruitment into the fishery Barange and Perry 2009 Climate driven shifts in species distributions can cause profound changes in interactions between marine organisms including increased competition or predation and changes to recruitment and dispersal processes The types of interactions and relationships between species are a major determinant of the current and predicted effects of climatic change on ecological processes and regimes within a marine system Johnson et al 2011 High value resources may have more commercial interests and research funding involved in their management therefore they may have greater adaptive capacity although high value may provide incentive for overexploitation and increase vulnerability to climate change Economic value might be a surrogate for other indicators depending on the scale and distribution Population size of the fish stock is important because small population size especially spawners can reduce the size of future recruitment recruitment overfishing and make a fish stock vulnerable to environmental shocks Sissenwine and Shepherd 1987 Enables identification of ownership or accessibility and sometimes easier enforcement rules e g distinct marking on juveniles breeding individuals or use of tags in farmed abalone to distinguish from wild caught Chick 2010 Highly variable di
22. nts or limitations including lack of skills to do other work identity attachment to fishing as occupation high entry exit costs of alternate livelihood options Allison and Horemans 2006 Ability to take on new technologies and innovations may be important to applying a systems perspective risk management and adaptation Mahon et al 2008 The ability to increase unrestricted effort using new technologies effort creep can increase risk of overexploitation and may reduce adaptive capacity Marine Adaptation Network Visit the Marine Adaptation Network website for further resources lt gt The Marine Adaptation Network has a vision to build adaptive capacity and adaptive response strategies for the effective management of marine biodiversity and living marine resources under climate change The Network aims to implement a strong interdisciplinary organisational framework to engage researchers governments and industry in a way that will enhance adaptive capacity and reduce vulnerability of Australia s marine biodiversity and resources to climate change risks The Network is hosted within the Institute for Marine 4 Antarctic Studies at the University of Tasmania Marine Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Report Card 2012 Visit lt gt This 2012 Report Card demonstrates that climate change is having significant impacts on Australia s oceans and marine ecosystems Many new changes have been documented since the
23. ompliance of marine resource use in accordance with decision rules Kuperan and Sutinen 1998 positively influences the extent to which management regimes can be adaptive Contact arnmbr arnmbr org 03 6226 2134 www nccarf edu au marine 17 18 Users U U1 Number of users U2 Socioeconomic attributes of users U3 History of use U4 Location U5 Leadership entrepreneurship U6 Norms social capital U7 Knowledge of SES mental models U8 Importance of resource U9 Technology used Interpretation in the context of adaptation to climate change in fisheries systems More users i e fishers are often harder to organise so the issues linking size of resource system and productivity are also affected by the number of users but this issue remains contested Ostrom 2005 Heterogeneity or homogeneity of users can also be important i e the relative numbers of commercial and recreational fishers or owner operators and lease fishers but this is a complicated variable the effects of which also remain contested The relative poverty and livelihoods options of users can have substantial effects on their approach to fisheries resource use Users with a high discount rate for instance where extreme poverty makes resource use obligatory to survival will be less adaptive than those with a low discount rate Cinner et al 2011 Allison et al 2009 Having a long history may lead to inflexibility but may also lead to great
24. pirical research and 2 Clarify the various characteristics of the fishery social ecological system deemed influential and rated as important in workshop 1 in terms of how they constrain and enable adaptive capacity What have we learned about what enables and constrains adaptation state of current knowledge of constraints and enablers of adaptation within the fishery social ecological system key contested and consensual statements and important 2 and 3 order variables noting that 3rd order variables would be defined by stakeholders as required EXAMPLE OF DATA KNOWLEDGE GENERATED The Draft Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Four Key Commercial Fisheries in South East Australia used stakeholder workshops to examine the results of desk top analysis and to collate and incorporate participants observations of oceanographic ecosystem or fishery changes as well as major stressors for four key commercial fisheries in South East Australia The proposed approach would use interdisciplinary research to find out more about the key issues raised in stages 1 and 2 Credit Tasmanian Seafood Industry Council Stages of the diagnostic approach 4 Survey Validation OBJECTIVE OUTPUTS 1 Validate levels of agreement with key contested and Report of survey results and analysis including consensual statements 1 levels of agreement with key contested and 2 Determine the relative importance o
25. risk analysis desk top These processes could be made more robust through collaborative planning processes such as those proposed in this user guide Stages of the diagnostic approach 6 Refining and Embedding Adaption OBJECTIVE OUTPUTS 1 Refine adaptation pathways for developing adaptive Specific adaption plans and programs including ways of capacity utilising the diagnostic variables or proxies for them in monitoring and evaluation of adaptation processes 2 Identify processes and mechanisms for embedding these in structures and processes of governance management industry and among other stakeholder groups RATIONALE Deliberative process led by a legitimate core group of stakeholders ensures that plans and programs are workable and moves towards embedding them PROCESSES 1 Governance of the project passes from researchers to the collaborative working group 2 Researchers work in the service of the working group to develop ways of utilising the diagnostic variables or proxies for them in monitoring and evaluation of EXAMPLE OF DATA KNOWLEDGE GENERATED The East Coast Tasmanian Rock Lobster Fishery Vulnerability Assessment 2009 made recommendations for formation and assessment of adaptation policy and strategies Rather than a vulnerability study making recommendations from outside of a management agency the diagnostic approach aims to be owned by the management agency such tha
26. st order Variables Description Social Economic and Political The external variables which structure action within a fishery but Setting S are not easy to change from within the system The physical and biological aspects and processes of the system Resource system RS y that constrain or enable adaptation Resource units RU Characteristics of the resource itself e g the particular fish species that affect how adaptable the fishery is to change l The formal and informal organizations institutions relationships Governance system GS networks and rules that govern action within the system and thus affect adaptation and adaptive capacity Contact arnmbr arnmbr org 03 6226 2134 www nccarf edu au marine 13 Second order variables The second order variables as suggested by Ostrom 2007 2009 have been interpreted in the context of fisheries and climate change see Table 3 below Table 3 Second order variables for analysing fisheries as Social Ecological Systems after Ostrom 2007 2009 Social economic and political settings S S1 Economic development S2 Demographic trends S3 Political stability S4 Government settlement policies S5 Market incentives S6 Media organization 14 Interpretation in the context of adaptation to climate change in fisheries systems The state of economic development e g emerging growing declining immature and mature of a region or social system can influence a
27. stributions can mean that gradual changes in resources resulting from changing climatic conditions are hard to identify a signal noise problem For instance longer term trends are difficult to identify in squid fisheries due to highly variable spatial and temporal distributions Pecl et al 2004 Second order variables Governance System GS Interpretation in the context of adaptation to climate change in fisheries systems GS1 Government organizations GS2 Non government organizations GS3 Network structure GS4 Property rights systems GS5 Operational rules GS6 Collective choice rules GS7 Constitutional rules GS8 Monitoring 4 sanctioning processes Capacity influence and legitimacy of government agencies are critical to their ability to intervene in the functioning and adaptive capacity of systems whether through enforcement of regulation through support for market based initiatives or by participating effectively in co management arrangements Gale and Haward 2011 NGOs inclusive of industry community and environmental groups can have credible influence in discussion about institutional change The interests and value base of stakeholders or groups of stakeholders are sometimes at odds For instance NGOs government agencies and resource users may all have different myths of nature Douglas 1985 and thus relate quite differently to information about marine biodiversity and resources Social and supply ch
28. system 2 Identify values and assumptions and divergent positions among stakeholders 3 disaggregate the social ecological system to highlight 1 and 2 order variables that constrain and enable adaptation see Table 2 for examples and 4 rate the relative influence of these variables in terms of how they constrain and enable adaptation and rate the degree to which each variable is an internal changeable or an external unchangeable driver Note that ratings may differ significantly between stakeholders Divergence in views is itself a second order variable that may overrule others and disable collective action see U6 and U7 page 18 Using Radio frequency voting systems enables such divergent views to be detected early on in the process by the research team and collectively discussed in relation to potential interventions for adaptation What do we know amp not know 1 current and potential system changes risks opportunities and uncertainties within fishery social ecological system differences in mental models and perspectives values and assumptions and 1 and 2 order variables and preliminary ratings of their importance noting the level of divergence and consensus EXAMPLE OF DATA KNOWLEDGE GENERATED The East Coast Tasmanian Rock Lobster Fishery Vulnerability Assessment 2009 investigated the connections between variables expected to alter with climate change such as temperature and curr
29. t adaptation becomes a normal part of ongoing planning and review of a fishery s performance adaptation processes 3 Working group reports periodically to the larger group of workshop and survey participants to seek feedback How do we make adaptation happen Credit Tasmanian Seafood Industry Council Contact arnmbr arnmbr org 03 6226 2134 www nccarf edu au marine 11 12 Variables for Fisheries Systems Fisheries are complex Social Ecological Systems The The framework see Figure 2 below includes suggested diagnostic framework for Social Ecological Systems was first order variables First order variables are described developed by Elinor Ostrom 2007 2009 for assessing in relation to fisheries see Table 2 page 13 systems of common pool resources including fisheries Social economic and political settings PA a Se eS e a ee a a eS ae Se ee A e eS eS SS Se SS Te E ee aS x ed Resource Governance system RS system GS Resource Units RU oo Oo on EEE HE EEE EEE HE HE HE HE HE HE HE m BE ME HM HE HE HE Em MM ME HE HM ME HE ME mE ME Mm A HE am m m m e e e e ME A HE HE MM ME ee ME HE ME ME HE HE ME ME mm Ti e wee ew ew ew ew eee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee AAA Related Ecosystems Figure 2 Conceptual Diagram of a Social Ecological System after Ostrom 2007 2009 Table 2 First order variables for analysing fisheries as Social Ecological Systems after Ostrom 2007 2009 Fir
30. tive By including the social and ecological systems which make up a fishery as a whole all of the variables and interactions between them which enable and constrain adaptation are included in the diagnosis see Tables 2 and 3 Planning to adapt Planned adaptation is an ongoing intentional process undertaken to address particular biophysical and socio economic conditions risks and uncertainties Planned adaptation tends to be more effective when research activity is closely linked to management and practice which is why the process described here includes fishers fisheries scientists managers and other key stakeholders Where barriers to adaptation can be identified and agreed upon they can be addressed through the many problem management processes already in use identification and prioritization of options monitoring and evaluation of successes and failures Diagnosing what drives and constrains adaptation Diagnosis in the context of fisheries is a process to identify how the properties and dynamics of a fishery system result in particular outcomes and whether these are desirable or not For example the diagnostic approach outlined here would assist key stakeholders in a fishery to identify and more importantly agree upon which aspects of the fishery as a system constrain and enable strategic and tactical decision making These may include lack of scientific certainty about the mechanisms that lead to seasonal varia
31. tive capacity within the fishery social ecological system 2 Develop workable adaptation pathways that are broadly agreed upon by participants RATIONALE Collaborative process ensures proposed adaptation pathways are workable and can be embedded PROCESSES Workshop 2 the stages of which include 1 re visit and discuss the analysis from previous stages or 2 collaboratively define context appropriate adaptation pathways using real options analysis or Deliberative Multi Criteria Evaluation see Fenichel et al 2008 and Leung 2006 for more information about these techniques as follows e detail ways of addressing the key constraining variables and enhancing enabling variables e processes and protocols for embedding adaptation in management and for monitoring and evaluation of adaptive capacity and pathway development and How do we enable adaption What are workable ways to adapt 3 set up a collaborative working group to begin to embed the adaptation pathways into the fishery OUTPUTS Workshop 2 report and working group established EXAMPLE OF DATA KNOWLEDGE GENERATED The Draft Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Four Key Commercial Fisheries in South East Australia used 3 approaches 1 Governance benchmarking for effective fisheries management stakeholder workshop 2 Development of conceptual scenarios to identify adaptation options and barriers stakeholder workshop 3 Social
32. tz DA Ross DJ Sanderson JC Shepherd SA Slotwinski A Swadling KM Taw N 2011 Climate change cascades Shifts in oceanography species ranges and subtidal marine community dynamics in eastern Tasmania Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 400 1 2 17 32 doi 10 1016 j jembe 2011 02 032 Leung P 2006 Multiple criteria decision making MCDM applications in fishery management International Journal of Environmental Technology and Management 6 1 2 96 110 Relevant research publications Linstone HA Turoff M Eds 1975 The Delphi method techniques and applications Addison Wesley Reading Madin EMP Ban NC Doubleday ZA Holmes TH Pecl GT Smith F 2012 Socio economic and management implications of range shifting species in marine systems Global Environ Change 22 1 137 146 doi 10 1016 j gloenvcha 2011 10 008 Mahon R McConney P Roy RN 2008 Governing fisheries as complex adaptive systems Marine Policy 32 1 104 112 doi 10 1016 j marpol 2007 04 01 1 Miller K Charles A Barange M Brander K Gallucci VF Gasalla MA Khan A Munro G Murtugudde R Ommer RE 2010 Climate change uncertainty and resilient fisheries Institutional responses through integrative science Prog Oceanog 87 1 4 338 346 doi 10 1016 j pocean 2010 09 014 Miller KA 2007 Climate variability and tropical tuna Management challenges for highly migratory fish stocks Marine Policy 31 1 56 70 doi 10 1016 marpol 2006 05
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