Home

Integral Assessment Module for Coastal Zone Management

1. If you have on your machine other RIKS applications such as GEONAMICAY the LEEFOMGEVINGSVERKENNER WADBOS the ISLAND Demo SIMLUCIA the CELLCITY Demo or earlier versions of the RAMCO Demo then put the RAMCO version 2 0 files in a dedicated directory different from the one s that contain s any of the other applications Do not interchange files between the different applications as files may have the same name but different contents RIKS bv 15 constantly trying to improve its applications It 1s our policy to provide you with the most recent versions of the programs and manuals available However as a result you may receive an application that is slightly different from the one described in the manual Do not hesitate to contact us if this would cause you any problems The RIKS Demos are curtailed versions of more elaborate software products Each of the Demos 15 conceived to allow you to get a good understanding of the full software product If you are interested in a demonstration of the full version you are welcome to contact RIKS bv Neither software development with the tools provided in the RAMCO package nor the application of the RAMCO package to a case study is permitted Software or application development and further usage or marketing of the RAMCO package will only be accepted following the purchase of a full version of the package Enjoy our demos and please return your comments to us RIKS bv P O Box
2. Rice culture moves the mouse pointer on top of such a MBB its colour will invert If the user 0 b clicks the mouse the response will depend on the type of MBB If the MBB clicked 1s not a SuperMBB then a dialog box will open This dialog box has the function of both receiving the data entered by the user and of communicating model results to the user If the MBB is a SuperMBB then a more detailed diagram 1s shown in which each of the MBB s will act as explained Non active MBB s appear in grey in the diagrams They are copies or Alias of MBB s that appear elsewhere in the diagram usually in another View or at another hierarchical level Connections made with a Non active MBB are in fact links with the Active version of the MBB Further the only function of the Non Active MBB is to increase the readability of the diagram MBB s that provide access to maps of the land side of the coast have a green contour while MBB s that provide access to maps of the sea side of the coast have a bleu contour Connectors and Connections Variables and parameters can be passed from one MBB to the other via In Connector Connections or Pipes MBB s will dispense variables or parameters with Out Connector the rest of the model via Out connectors and will take in information UY from other MBB s via n connectors The actual exchange between MBB s is possible when a Connection or Pipe is drawn between an Out conne
3. 4 the System diagram View when a simulation model is opened The other Views are called Scenarios Policy options and Impacts These names appear as the names of tabs which are positioned just below the Title bar of the Macro scale dynamics window You can change the View by simply clicking the appropriate tab EF Macro scale dynamics Scenarios Policy options Impacts System Diagram LAND USE WATER Upstream oy Storage lake River discharge catchment area irrigation Marine amame 4 Drinking water Marine 18 hydro energy Ecosystem E od Pollution Land j Tourism allocation Indisir me hood supply Food supply p Rice culture PP Agriculture Y shrimp culture Employment Forest Shrimp culture T Fisheries amp Income Mangrove ECONOMY Each of the Macro scale dynamics Views shows a specific graphical representation of the macro model 1 the View 4 System diagram View shows an overview of the structure of the system modelled at the most synthetic level It allows access to all the details of the model at this level but also at lower levels You should learn to use it as a graphical explorer of the model 2 the View 1 Scenarios View shows the parts of the model that are most subject to external influences and where hypothesis about these influences can be entered 3 the View 2 Policy options View shows the parts of the model th
4. Commands to zoom in and out as well as commands to display information on the foreground or background of the maps are part of this menu Maps Open a new window with one of the maps of the modelled region Rules define the model at the micro level by means of defining the Cellular Automata transition rules Simulation control the simulation The commands in this menu are the same as the ones represented by means of buttons in the Tool bar Options customise the workspace Commands permit among others to display or remove the Status bar and or Tool bar and to DDE link the simulation package to Excel Window manage your windows on the screen Help invoke the on line Help facilities 2 5 4 The Tool bar The Tool bar also known as Speed bar gives a faster access to some of the more frequently used commands which are also accessible via the menu Bl 4 e as alla step Run Stop Reset 0 1 E LA open a simulation file from the disk save a simulation file to disk change the pointer to a pen The pen is used to pick a value from the legend and enter it in a cell on the map change the pointer to a bucket The bucket is used to pick a value from the legend and enter it in larger contiguous areas of the map change the pointer to a ruler The ruler is used to enter detailed information zm cell by cell When a cell is clicked a dialog will open to enter the exact value zoom in Increase the size of the map on the di
5. urban Marine park RO ae When a suitability map is selected the View menu will get one additional command named Show features This command allows to display the cells IU occupied by a land use feature by means of a special symbol These cells are excluded for the allocation of dynamic land use functions SeaQi ass 4 4 5 Marine park Use the Marine park command to select the Marine park map and its editor in the Marine park window With the Marine park editor it 1s possible to select a site for the Marine park or to change the position of the Marine park Attention the area represented in the Marine park map is bigger than the area in the other maps This is to allow you to install a Marine park outside the modelled coastal area Change landuse When the Marine park map is selected the Edit menu will get one additional command named Change landuse This command allows you to change the name and colour with which the Marine park is shown on the map When it is selected a Change Land use dialog box will open 4 4 6 Coral maps RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 46 Use the Coral maps command to select one of the Coral maps and its editor in the Coral map window The following 3 Coral maps can be edited Coral surface Live coral cover and Coral species Coral surface Live coral cover Coral species Lese When one of the Coral maps is selected the View menu will get one additional c
6. will open a Open dialog box displaying all the files in the working directory with the correct extension If you change the type of file to import in the appropriate scroll list you will be able to import IDRISI files with extension 4 1 5 Export file Command Use the Export file command to export a file from the simulation to disk Exporting and importing files is possible for all maps that can be edited in the system Land Use Suitability Network Regions map The type of map has to be selected from the menu and has to be in the active window before the Import file command will be active When active Export file will open a Save dialog box displaying all the files in the working directory with the correct extension If the user changes the type of file to export in the appropriate scroll list he will be able to export files to IDRISI with the extension 4 1 6 Page Setup Command Use the Page Setup command to decide on the size and scale at which you want RAMCO to print the simulation results of the Micro level model 4 1 7 Print Command Use the Print command to print the maps generated by the Micro level model 4 1 8 Print Preview Command Use the Print Preview command to get a preview on the screen of the printed document 4 1 9 Print Setup Command Use the Print Setup command to arrange the setup of your printer so that simulation results will be correctly printed b
7. 0 June 1999 Page 8 equipped to make better policies Thus the role of the models and the Decision Support System is foremost awareness building and the education of the user rather than support of the decision making act itself The models therefore should give an adequate truthful representation of the real world system and the policy maker should be enabled to work with the models and the system in a well structured well guided transparent and flexible manner The formal representation of the real world system by means of an integral model enables the user to work with it in a manner similar to what is common in process control EXTERNAL INFLUENCES scenarios SYSTEM eme RESULTING ECOLOGICAL pals POLICY OF THE OF THE SOCIO MAKER ECONOMIC SYSTEM SYSTEM INSTITUTIONAL indicators criteria system POLICY OPTIONS amp MEASURES policy levers The coastal system box System 1s represented by means of an integral model Due to its autonomous dynamics this system will evolve into new states as time goes by box Resulting state The new state can be captured in a number of indicators When starting the exercise the policy maker or coastal zone manager should have a clearly defined set of criteria expressing the desired state of the system at a particular point in time box Prefered state In order to bring the actual state of the system closer to the prefered state the policy maker can
8. 463 6200 AL Maastricht The Netherlands Tel 31 43 388 33 32 Fax 31 43 325 31 55 e mail info riks nl http www riks nl RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 2 1 Introduction 1 1 12 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 Decision Support Systems Modelling and decision making philosophy Policy analysis by means of RAMCO Model integration and model implementation Future developments The case South West Sulawesi 2 Getting Started 22 2 3 2 4 2 3 2 6 Dik 2 6 What is included in this demo package Installing RAMCO Hard and Software Requirements Installing RamCo Installation procedure Starting RAMCO Screen Layout Getting Help Exiting RAMCO If you experience problems 3 Running SW Sulawesi Simulations Sick 32 3 3 3 4 3 3 Running a simulation Starting the simulation Viewing model output Saving simulation results Printing simulation results 4 The RAMCO Menu System 4 1 The File Menu 4 2 Edit Menu 4 3 View Menu 4 4 Maps Menu 4 5 Rules Menu 4 6 Simulation Menu 4 7 Options Menu 4 8 Window Menu 4 9 Help Menu RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Table of Contents Page 3 19 19 19 19 20 20 23 23 24 25 23 34 229 36 D 39 39 42 43 45 49 50 22 54 22 5 ANALYSE 5 1 Basic concepts and features 6 Policy exercises with RAMCO 6 1 Introduction 6 2 Exercise a introducing scenarios 6 3 Exercise b implem
9. Annex A for the meaning of the different pointer shapes With the left mouse button clicked down the Splitter bar can be moved and the size of the Panes is adjusted accordingly th Micro scale dynamics nature f forest mangrove Legend Pane culture agriculture shrimp culture industry tourism rural residential urban residential Splitter Bar sea Seagrass coral reef Focus Pane r nh The Pane on the left of the Micro scale dynamics window called the Map pane contains a map representation of the modelled region More in particular the actual land use of the region as well as the position of coral reefs and seagrass beds 1s mapped For the sake of simplicity and clarity of this text we will name sea coral reefs and seagrass beds land uses The legend of the map is displayed in the upper left pane called Legend pane The lower left Pane called the Focus pane of the Micro scale dynamics window shows the mapped region in small In the upper left part of this small map you will see a wire frame an inverted rectangle If the mouse is placed inside this wire frame the frame can be moved while holding the left mouse button clicked down While the wire frame is moved you will notice that the focus of the map in the Map pane is changing accordingly The focus of the map can also be changed by means of the scroll bars of the
10. Map pane The Legend pane too is equipped with a vertical scroll bar RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 26 When the simulation is running the Micro scale dynamics window will be updated and the resulting land use will be displayed in the Map pane The commands of the View Menu permit to change the manner in which micro scale results of the model are displayed in the Map pane Display options include among other Zoom in Zoom out and 3 D representation For a complete overview consult the View Menu in section 4 3 of this User guide Most of the functionality of the micro scale models is accessible via the menu structure of the system Details on the different menu options 1s given in Chapter 4 of this guide Here we will focus on a number of elements that are essential to understand the functioning of the micro scale model and to change its parameters The micro level model calculates and displays the changing land use and sea use of the coastal zone The legend of the map explains the meaning of the different colours A distinction is made in the model between the dynamic elements and the non dynamic elements Dynamic elements are also called Land use Functions and Sea use Functions The static elements are called Land use Features Sea Use Functions Seagrass Coral Reef Land Use Functions Agriculture Rice culture Shrimp culture Industry Tourism Urban residential Rural residentialt Mangrove Nature forest Land Use
11. Next again a second dialog box appears asking you where to install RAMCO You can accept the default path which is c RamCo or replace it in the edit box by one of your own choice You may use the Browse button to select this alternative path as well 6 To go on press the Next button Otherwise to cancel the installation process press the Cancel button The installation program will ask you whether the programme must be installed for Windows 95 98 NT or Windows 3 x Select RAMCO for Windows 95 98 NT 7 Next the installation program suggests to add RAMCO to the new Program Group RAMCO You are free to create another Group or to choose an existing one from the list shown 8 From that moment the installation application is decompressing the necessary files and puts them in the directory structure of RAMCO At a certain point in time you will be asked to insert disk 2 in the drive Insert at that moment the disk labelled RAMCO disk 2 2 9 If everything went OK a last dialog box will inform you about the fact that the installation is finished Once the installation on the hard disk is completed the program creates a group named RAMCO under the Start button and Programs command It contains an item labelled RAMCO When you double click this item RAMCO will be started and the About window will appear Click OK to enter the Application window 2 4 Starting RAMCO Once installed you can start the RAMCO ap
12. The dialog editor is opened to enter the data for a small sub model required to calculate the value of an intermediate variable printed in purple This editor is used in particular to edit data that are subject to stocahstic perturbations such as Precipitation available from the Scenario View Starting the simulation Once the Micro scale dynamics and the Macro scale dynamics windows have been opened the program has read in the default values for all the parameters as well as the initial values for all the state variables of the model The program is ready to run a simulation Verify this by pushing the Step button from the Tool bar Once pushed RAMCO will go through a number of essential phases such as the initialisation and testing of its inputs which are of no direct interest to the user before it will make 1 simulation step This will take a while You will notice that the action is finished when the simulation time changes from 0 1 to 1 1 and the land use map in the Micro scale dynamics window 1s being updated To put things more correctly we should say that the model will make 12 monthly steps in the macro level model and one year step in the micro level model Undo the simulation step by pushing the Reset button from the Tool bar This action will reset all the state variables of the model to their initial value but will not do so for the values of the parameters These are not influenced by Reset and remain unchanged Since
13. University P O Box 217 7500 Enschede The Netherlands 1998 Workine Paper prepared m the framework of Research program W 01 60 financed by the Netherlands Foundation for the Advancement of Tropical Research P O Box 93138 2509 AC The Hague The Netherlands RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 31 When a dialog box is opened the user can open an information page containing more information about the MBB to which it 1s attached To this end he simply has to push the Fl key while the dialog box is active Above is the documentation page linked to the MBB Food Supply Typically the information is organised under a number of headings Heading in the documentation page Description definition Describes briefly the function of the MBB application Explains where in the model this MBB 15 used mathematical formulation Contains the mathematical expression which 1s solved in the MBB out connector s Names the different Output variables calculated in this MBB and which are available from the out connectors of the MBB internal parameter s Names the different parameters that are specific to the MBB and that need to be read in via the dialog box in connector s Names the different Input variables that are needed in this MBB and that are entered into the MBB via its In conectors reference s Contains reference material about the MBB The documentation pages are very usefull to obtain the details of the
14. and connect them with the other MBB s of the model If the new model requires MBB s that are not as yet included in an MBB Library then the analyst will request a Modeller to develop such a MBB for inclusion in the MBB Library and his model The Analyst will gather the data for the model Part of these consist of geographical data which he can import from existing GIS systems or enter them by means of RAMCO s GIS facilities He will calibrate his new model and test its sensitivity From these exercises he will obtain the default values and ranges for the parameters and state variables which he enters into the system Once the models have been fully calibrated the system can be handed to the Policy maker He can design and run alternatives and evaluate their relative merits in meeting the policy goals which he has set It is obvious that the steps described above are not run through in a linear and sequential manner rather an iterative and cyclic process is more likely Also the interplay between the different users will be more lasting than suggested One of the very great merits of RAMCO is the manner in which it could gradually evolve into a storage tank of coastal zone management knowledge Indeed as a result of its application to coastal zones worldwide its MBB Libraries and Model bases will grow till a point where many of the processes typifying coastal zones will have a formal representation available from the MBB Libraries From thi
15. appear Once you open Help you can click the contents button whenever you want to return to the opening screen In this version of RAMCO the on line Help is very incomplete 4 9 2 Using Help Command Use the Using Help command for getting general instructions on how to use the Windows Help System 4 9 3 About Command Use the About command to get the copyright notice and version number of the RAMCO application which you are using The latter 1s important 1f you need assistance with the software from the developers or when you request an update of the software RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 55 RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 56 5 ANALYSE The program ANALYSE which is also on the RAMCO Demo diskettes can be used to analyse log files created with RAMCO To run ANALYSE click on the Start button in the Windows Task bar point at the Programs folder and move to the RAMCO sub folder Then finally select the ANALYSE icon 5 1 Basic concepts and features As explained in scetion 3 7 RAMCO allows you to store map output from the micro model in the so called log files Hence a log file consists of a sequence of maps generated by a simulation The name of a map in such log file consists of the concatenation of the name of the log file and the iteration number With ANALYSE you are able to compare any two maps within the log file and see the differences graphically as well as in numbers Also th
16. be displayed and viewed Indeed the user has a lot of freedom in selecting and organising the in and output windows The version 2 0 of RAMCO has hundreds of windows containing information related to the model These windows are all accessible in accordance with the structure and the logic explained Macro scale dynamics model Micro scale dynamics model Views SuperMBB s MBB s dialog boxes Graphs and Maps A window or dialog will be opened by the user and will stay open untill it 1s minimized or closed by the user While the simulation 15 running all the windows that are opened are updated This has the great advantage of displaying information from linked MBB s simultaneously and the user can see how changes occur in different parts of the model However the user should learn to manage output windows carefully and to close those windows he is not directly interested in If not his screen will get overloaded with left over information which he is not really using but also every opened window is updated by RAMCO Updating information takes execution time and memory space Hence the program might slow down considerably Certainly when maps are being used it is imperative to close as much as possible the maps that are not of immediate interest to the user Moving the mouse with the left mouse button clicked down in the Title bar of a window will permit to move the window around It 1s good practice to organise the screen in such a wa
17. from the legend of a map and to enter it in a cell or to enter ordinal values in the X Y graph part of the graph editor Bucket cursor to pick a value from the legend of a map and to enter it in a group of contiguous cells RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 71 9 ANNEX B Factors and Weights This annex contains an overview of the factors and weights as used in an overlay analysis to produce a set of suitability maps usable in the SW Sulawesi application Factor Land Use Rating per land use function agriculture uban tourism industry mangrove culture culture residential residential 7 9 nature mangrove rice culture agriculture shrimp culture industry tourism rural resident urban resident NM ON NN ND BB O1 01 N ND O1 O1 O1 A ND O OO O O NB J BR O1 01 O O O O NB J BR O1 01 BR O1 O1 ND O1 O1 O1 N O1 ND OO O1 O1 O1 O1 Factor Distance pai Rating per land use function to waterwa nee agriculture schrimp rural urban tourism industry mangrove culture g culture residential residential industry mangrove 0 1000 APP PPR gt 5000 ir E a a orem eno rn cultur culture _ residential residential Factor Elevation Rating per land
18. implementing a policy option From the previous exercise it will be clear that demographic pressure influences the coastal zone directly visible as increasing urban BOD loads but also indirectly visible in the increasing BOD loads from the growing Shrimp culture The coastal zone manager can only influence demographic growth indirectly and in part On top changes in the population growth rate usually take a very long time Hence in most cases he will have to take demographic pressure as a fact and try to mitigate its consequences through the design of appropriate accommodating policy measures The design of such a policy is the purpose of the following exercise Aim To design policy measures that will mitigate the consequences for the coastal zone of a rapidly growing population To that end we will first find out whether pollution levels could be kept down if water treatment plants were installed Because policy measures have a price tag we will check whether the costs are within limits Screen arrangement similar to the previous exercise we want to be able to change the population growth and to see how that affects the BOD loads Repeat the steps explained in the previous exercise to arrange your screen To implement policies we need to select them from the Policy options View Click the Waste water treatment MBB and drag its dialog window to the right side of the screen Minimize the Macro scale window What if We will test
19. intended for scientific analysis hence you have full access to nearly all of its parameter and variables Whenever you change parameters or variables beyond their validity interval the model might generate results that are merely nonsense In conclusion use the model in a responsible manner and with particular care All the exercises in this chapter will be done with the simulation files named Sulawesi SIM and Deforest SIM In the previous chapters we have explained how to Start RAMCO how to Open a simulation and how to Run Reset and Exit a simulation exercise We assume that you know this at this point Begin each of the exercises described underneath by starting RAMCO and opening the simulation file SULAWESI SIM 6 2 Exercise a introducing scenarios The effectiveness of coastal zone management can be strongly influenced by physical and social factors external to the coastal zone system They are usually beyond the control of the coastal zone manager or decision maker His intervention is limited to the early detection of possible dangers brought about by such factors and the design and implementation of counter measures In the model for South West Sulawesi three external factors are included in the form of scenario variables 1 the external markets and prices of fish shrimp rice and other agricultural products 2 the average precipitation and 3 the demographic growth In example the user may study the consequences of high o
20. intervene in the system by means of policy measures box Policy measures In an iterative process he can tune his policy measures in an attempt to appraoch the prefered state with a minimum amount of intervention and costs The robustness of the chosen policy measures can be tested by imposing effects on the system which are beyond the control of the policy maker These effects are called scenarios box Scenarios in RAMCO In the RAMCO user interface these different elements can be interactively consulted or specified from separate screens each giving a specific view on the integral model See section 3 1 2 for more detail We would like to draw the attention on the fact that the above scheme represents the loops in the learning process of the user It is too simple a scheme to represent the manner in which policy measures are designed decided and implemented in reality To that effect the model developed by Mintzberg See for example Janssen 1992 15 much more useful 1 4 Model integration and model implementation At the very hart of RAMCO is an integral model representing the physical environmental economic and social processes that typify the dynamics of a coastal zone RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 9 generally and the coastal zone of SW Sulawesi in particular In order to develop this type of integral model use is made to the extent possible of existing scientific knowledge methods models and databa
21. management SuperMBB open the Sediment removal dialog box and enter a value of 0 5 Million cubic Metres e Now run the simulation noting values for sediment production and delivery and storage lake capacity The effective minimum storage capacity of the lake is approximately 345 million cubic Metres below this level the water intake for power generation 15 likely to be blocked by sediment How does sediment removal alter the effective life time of the lake At what cost Note that the cost of sediment removal is an annual figure and that sediment is removed during one month only RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 67 RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 68 7 References Boersma S K Th 1989 Beslissingsondersteunende Systemen Academic Service Schoonhoven Couclelis H 1985 Cellular Worlds A Framework for Modelling Micro Macro Dynamics Environment and Planning A 17 pp 585 596 Couclelis H 1988 Of mice and men what rodent populations can teach us about complex spatial dynamics Environment and Planning A 20 99 109 Eastman J R 1995 IDRISI for Windows User s Guide Version 1 0 Clark University Worcester MA USA El Najdawi M K and Stylianou A C 1993 Expert Support Systems Integrating AI technologies Communications of the ACM 36 2 pp 55 65 Engelen G 1988 The theory of self organization and modelling complex urban systems European Journal of Operat
22. of the Potential maps in the Potential fice culture window A Potential map displays the transition potential of a cell to change to agriculture the land use specified The transition potentials are used to decide which land shrimp culture use will be allocated to each cell in the next simulation step Industry tourism rural settlement urban When a potential map is selected the View menu will get one additional command named Show function This command allows you to display the cells taken in by the land use function for which the potential is displayed on the map NNUS It allows you to get an idea to what extent the land use function is indeed present see in cells with a high transition potential for the specific function Seal ass 4 4 11 Suspended sediment Command Use the Suspended sediment command to view the suspended sediment map in the Suspended sediment window RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 48 4 5 Rules Menu mangrove culture agriculture Use the Rules Menu to view or specify the spatial interaction forces that typify Indust i i each possible pair of land uses tauris rural settlement urban ox FOF F F SB dO ass Overview 4 5 1 land use Command Select from the menu the land use function LU1 for which you would like to enter edit or view its interaction with another land use LU2 Select this other land LU2 use by po
23. of the status bar indicates which of the following keys are latched down The Caps Lock key 1s latched down The Num Lock key is latched down The Scroll Lock key is latched down The Status bar command from the View Menu allows to display or hide the Status bar in the RAMCO Application window 2 6 Getting Help RAMCO comes with a very concise on line Help facility Its structure and operation is in accordance with the Microsoft Help standards Hence using Help should pose no problems for those familiar with Windows To get Help press F1 or the key sequence ALT H The Help menu has 3 items 1 Index gives an access to the index of the help guide 2 Using Help gives the general instructions on how to use the Windows Help System 3 About RAMCO gives information about the version of RAMCO that you are working with 2 7 Exiting RAMCO Closing RAMCO 15 simply done by selecting the Exit command from the File menu If you have simulation files open when you select Exit the application will ask whether you want to save simulation results If you confirm to be interested in saving results you RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 23 will get the Save dialog box More information on saving simulation results 15 given in the next chapter 2 6 Ifyou experience problems If you experience problems in installing or running RAMCO 2 0 contact Research Institute for Knowledge Systems bv To
24. product are National Institute for Coastal and Marine Management RIKZ and the associated Coastal Zone Management Centre CZMc and the Netherlands Organization for the Advancement of Tropical Research WOTRO The developers group consists of INFRAM bv RIKS bv and WL Delft Hydraulics Delft The Technical University of Twente Department of Civil Engineering Technology amp Management Enschede participated as a sub contractor of INFRAM bv Both version 1 and version 2 of RAMCO are applied to the Coastal zone of SW Sulawesi Indonesia The model of the coastal zone of SW Sulawesi makes extensive use of knowledge gathered in project W01 60 of the Netherlands Organization for the Advancement of Tropical Research WOTRO This scientific material remains the full property of WOTRO and the scientific teams that carried out the original research This demo is an implementation for demonstration purposes of RAMCO and runs on PC compatible machines The scientific philosophy which 1s at the base of RAMCO and the RAMCO methodology is described at greater length in a number of publications and technical reports mentioned in the reference list of this user guide The demo will be best used in combination with a selection of these documents 1 1 Decision Support Systems Decision Support Systems are defined here as computer based information systems that are built to assist decision makers address semi structured problems by allowing them
25. whether investment in water treatment plants will keep the over all water quality as measured by the BOD loads from deteriorating as the region grows Note that the model permits to develop policies related to both urban and industrial waste water treatment BOD generated by shrimp production can not be dealt with e First enter a population growth rate of 3 19 96 e Next we will check what the initial BOD loads are To that end we need to initialise the simulation During this phase the initial values of all the variables of the model will RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 64 be calculated Select the Init command from the Simulation menu and notice how some of the values in the dialogs will change to take their initial value Read from the Ecosystem Vitality dialog box the figure in the Total BOD load field in the column Value at date e We enter this figure in the Total BOD load edit field in the column named Policy criterion From now on we can read in the column Score at date the difference between the value wanted Policy criterion and the value measured Value at date in the model e First run the simulation with no treatment facility and at the end of the 10 year run read from the Ecosystem Vitality dialog box the Value at date of the Total BOD load as well as the Score at Date and write it down Reset the simulation e Now we will design a Waste water treatment investment policy To that end activate the Waste wa
26. will see what supplied by the coastal zone for Rice culture 1 00 Agriculture the model has to offer in the Food Supply MBB Move the mouse to the MBB named Food Supply System Diagram View As soon as the mouse is 1 00 Shrimp culture 0 00 inside the borders of the MBB the colour of the MBB Reet fish Demersals 0 26 will invert Now click the left mouse button The 0 44 following dialog box will open Small pelagics 0 68 Large pelagics 0 00 Now have the simulation take one simulation step again by pushing the Step button while watching the TRES PA Gi values displayed in the box Notice that the values of Y axis fram 30 to 100 3 3 the variables are updated 12 times as the 12 monthly simulation steps are taken Finally the map in the Micro scale dynamics window is updated This demonstrates the fact that models developed with RAMCO have coupled micro and macro components running simultaneously For variables preceded by a white check box such as Total employment in the Human welfare MBB of the Impacts View the model allows to make a time graph you need to do is to click in the check box and the graph will open As long as it 1s opened it will be updated at each simulation time step To close it you should click the Close window icon in the title bar of the Graph window Viewing model output The flexibility of RAMCO is also reflected in the manner in which output can
27. 0 0 0 tourism 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 rural sett b 0 12 4 0 3 327 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 urban 11 0 5 0 2 1 0 0 378 0 0 0 0 0 0 sea 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 019723 0 0 0 0 0 inland wat 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 214 0 0 0 0 airport 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 harbor 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 beach 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 critical 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 144 The number of function cells changed 1 41 The total number of cells changed 1 69 The number of cells on map 1 TEST 0 13141 6720 8374 826 20 8 419 39719723 214 4 5 0 144 The number of cells on map 2 TEST 5 12697 6737 8556 915 22 9 379 56219723 242 4 5 144 The individual Kappa statistics 0 94 1 00 0 92 0 94 0 85 0 76 0 94 0 82 0 79 1 00 0 94 1 00 1 00 1 00 1 00 The overall Kappa statistic 0 95 RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 59 RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 60 6 Policy exercises with RAMCO Now that the general functionality of RAMCO has been covered this chapter will briefly describe how to use RAMCO for Decision and Policy support in SW Sulawesi We will treat three exercises that are getting progressively more complex and require a better understanding of the SW Sulawesi model and RAMCO 6 1 Introduction Policy making and more generally Decision making is a stepwise process In order to come to a decision the steps are run through sequentially in one or more iteration Depending on the author or the literature
28. 000 BOD load Y axis fram 0 01 to 0 01 For Help press F1 What if run We will compare two scenarios the first one with a population growth of 1 the second with a population growth of 4 e Click in the Population growth dialog box and move your cursor to the Population growth rate edit field Notice how the cursor changes once you position it on top of the edit field Click to edit the default value and enter for a growth of 1 yearly during the 25 years of the simulation in the Edit value dialog box and then click OK We are now ready to run the simulation A Typical simulation run takes 25 years This period can be shortened by means of the Pauses command from the simulation Pause every 10 years menu For the purpose of this exercise we will run the simulation for 10 years Hence enter 10 Now click the Run button in the Cancel Tool bar RAMCO will read from file all the additional information needed to run your simulation it will initialise the simulation and will then start stepping through the simulation period Notice how the clock starts ticking away the months and how the numbers in the dialog RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 63 6 3 boxes on your screen are changing Write down the total amount of BOD produced as soon as the simulation comes to a halt after 10 years The figure we are interested in 1s to be found in the column named Value at date e What is the unit used for B
29. 6 4 Exercise c studying the impacts of other coastal processes policy effectiveness After the completion of a dam the life time of the storage lake depends on the reservoir capacity and on the volume of the yearly inflow of sediments from the catchment area For the Bili bili dam upstream from Ujung Pandang the life time of the storage lake 15 RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 65 estimated to be 50 years In this exercise we will study how large scale deforestation will affect the life time of the reservoir Aim To study the effects of land use changes on the life time of the dam and to get insight in the micro scale dynamics and their coupling with the macro scale Screen arrangement Arrange your screen such that the micro scale dynamics window is visible Select from the view menu the Show Regions command This will show the boundaries of the administrative regions on top of the land use map You can identify the regions on the map and get an overview of land use data by clicking in a region a table of cell counts for the named region will appear Now focus your map such that you have a good view of the River catchment area above the dam as well as the river from the dam down to the sea see the figure We want also to enter a population scenario and be able to work with the Dam construction amp management policy option Hence open the appropriate dialog boxes or keep them at hand in their minimized Jene
30. 99 Page 38 4 The RAMCO Menu System This Chapter explains the different commands that are available in RAMCO s Menu System The Menus will be treated as they appear in the Menu bar from left to right 4 1 The File Menu File fev et GET Open simulation Lt Save simulation as ss bd Use the File menu to create a new simulation file or open an existing EXE one save and print files and to exit RAMCO Page Setup Print Ctrl F RAMCO saves simulation files with a SIM extension attached to the Print Preview filename Print Setup 1 Sulawesi sim Exil 4 1 1 New simulation Command Use the New simulation command to create a new simulation file This option is greyed out and not available in this version of RAMCO because it comes with the specially tailored model for SW Sulawesi 4 1 2 Open simulation Command Use the Open command to open a simulation file stored on a disk You can open only one simulation file at the time Use the Windows menu or the mouse to switch among the different windows opened by the simulation When you select Open simulation the Open dialog box appears If the name of the file of your choice is not visible in the list box use the scroll bar to move through the list of filenames in the directory or disk you are working in If the file you want to open is not in the current directory or on the current disk use the scroll list or browse symbols in the section nam
31. CO The suitability map of each land use function can be selected from the Maps menu and the way the map is displayed can be altered by means of the View and Edit menu Network For each land use function an accessibility map is present in the model It shows how accessible each cell is in relation to a network The network can be in principle at least any network For the case of the SW Sulawesi model two networks are available the road network and the irrigation network In this version of the model the network included is the road network For some activities such as tourism the direct access to the road system is more important than for other such as agriculture The maps are the result of an accessibility calculation done on the basis of the Accessibility parameters which are accessible via the Edit Menu The user can freely open and close maps except for the Micro scale window We warn the user that opened windows are updated while the simulation is running and that this does take up processing time hence that the program will be slowed down RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 28 More details on the use of Cellular Automata for modelling geographical phenomena at the micro scale can be found in the publications in the reference list 3 1 2 The Macro scale dynamics window The Macro scale dynamics window 15 the graphical interface to the Macro scale model It consists of 4 Views but will always show View
32. DEFOREST SIM To that end select form the File menu the Save simulation as command and enter DEFOREST SIM in the edit field called File name of the Save As dialog box Next click the Save button Next the Simulation DEFOREST SIM dialog box will open Click OK Read sections 2 4 and 3 1 of the manual again if saving the simulation causes problems e Finally select the Storage lake SuperMBB in the Macro scale dynamics window System diagram View and open the Storage lake capacity MBB s dialog box Now run the simulation and check the sediment production and sediment delivery in Jenerakikang e Some of the sediment produced will be deposited in the storage lake and reduce the lake capacity unless it is being removed Notice how the Storage lake capacity decreases as the years go by What if Now try out a policy option aimed at removing sediment from the lake Find out what the costs are to increase the life time of the storage lake e Select the System diagram View From the Upstream catchment area SuperMBB open the Sediment production and Sediment delivery MBB s dialog boxes unless you opened them before from the Storage lake SuperMBB open the Storage lake capacity and Sediment removed dialog boxes and finally from the Employment amp income SuperMBB open the Government spending dialog box Next switch to the Policy options View and under the Dam construction amp
33. Features Sea Inland water Airport Harbour Beach Land use Features will not change as the result of micro scale dynamics That is to say they will not change location they will not expand or will not disappear due to expansion of other activities Yet they influence the dynamics of the Land use or Sea use Functions and will interfere in the allocation process For example the Land use function Tourism will be influenced by the presence or absence of the land use feature Beach The dynamic behaviour in space and time is of Sea use functions Seagrass and Coral Reef is different from the other land use functions The specific details on their dynamics can be found in the documentation pages of the model see section 2 1 2 Dialog boxes The dynamic behaviour of the Land use functions is based on a number of elements which can be changed in principle at the least by the user of the model Cellular Automata Transition Rules First and most important are the Cellular Automata transition rules They represent the dynamic element of the micro model see for example Engelen G White R Uljee I and Drazan P 1995 Using Cellular Automata for Integrated Modelling of Socio Environmental Systems Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 34 pp 203 214 For each cell in the cellular space they will calculate how land uses will change throughout the simulation period The transition rules are accessible via the Rules
34. Integral Assessment Module for Coastal Zone Management 2 0 User Guide RIKS RIKS bv P O Box 463 Papenstraat 8 6200 AL Maastricht The Netherlands Inge Uljee Guy Engelen and Roger White June 1999 Bee ee Important Notice Please take notice of the following remarks when installing the RAMCO Demo 1 has originally Octobre 1996 been developed Contract RKZ 308 for the National Institute for Coastal and Marine Management RIKZ and the associated Coastal Zone Management Centre CZMc P O Box 20907 2500 EX The Hague The Netherlands RAMCO has been developed by INFRAM bv P O Box 81 3890 AB Zeewolde and RIKS bv P O Box 463 6200AL Maastricht The Netherlands The version 2 0 of RAMCO is the result of the Land Water Environment Information technology LWI Project Integral Systems Analysis in the LWI Estuaria and Coasts project group The end users of this LWI product are National Institute for Coastal and Marine Management RIKZ and the Coastal Zone Management Centre CZMc and the Netherlands Organization for the Advancement of Tropical Research WOTRO The developers group consists of INFRAM bv RIKS bv and WL Delft Hydraulics The SW Sulawesi model makes extensive use of knowledge gathered in project W01 60 of the Netherlands Organization for the Advancement of Tropical Research WOTRO This scientific material remains the full property of WOTRO
35. MCO they will need to be represented as ActiveX components With a view to change the software code of the existing models as little as possible the models are wrapped into a piece of intermediate software code called wrapper which will make them look like ActiveX s from the outside subroutine An ActiveX RamCo wrapper is put around each declarations of existing model XYZ This wrapper converts the ActiveX RamCo subroutines of model XYZ on the inside into components ActiveX RamCo subroutines at the outside subroutine pcd a eed implementation of model m existing model simulation engine using Activex subroutines Clearly the typical user of the RAMCO modelling shell or Decision Support System would be served best if he could compose exchange and re arrange sub models as easily as Lego building blocks and develop his model from a set of exchangeable and interchangeable Model Building Blocks MBB each representing an autonomous process which is executed at its characteristic time step and geographical scale The wrapping technique 15 applied to each unit and the RAMCO simulation engine takes care of the linking time keeping synchronisation and data management and of the units 1 4 1 RAMCO s simulation environment In order to develop and adapt integral models in as flexible a manner as possible RAMCO features an Object O
36. OD you wonder BOD Biological Oxygen Demand is a general indicator for organic pollution of surface waters You will see what its units are if you activate the Ecosystem vitality dialog box and then push the F1 key to invoke the Documentation page linked to the Ecosystem vitality MBB From this page you will learn that BOD 1s expressed in ton day in this model e Now check what part of the BOD 1s urban To that end you need to dig deeper into the model From the Window menu select Macro scale dynamics window to bring it back to the foreground Select on that window the System diagram View Click the Pollution SuperMBB As a result the diagram of this part of the model pops up Select the Urban BOD production MBB and read the details about the BOD production from the dialog box Again make a note of the amount read from the dialog box e Next we will do the same exercise with a high population growth rate Push the Reset button from the Tool bar to return the simulation to its initial state All you need to do is to enter a population growth rate of 4 in the Population growth dialog box and run the simulation again Take note of the total population the total BOD production and the Urban BOD production What are your conclusions from this exercise e Finally reset the simulation one more time and enter a value for the population growth rate typical for your home region and see what effects it would have for this coastal zone Exercise b
37. Policy Impacts as they have been designed and prepared specially for him If we define Integral Assessment as the exercise aimed at getting a good understanding of the coastal system as a holistic integral system in order to identify the major driving forces and to detect the faults therein then it 1s likely to state that the Analyst in collaboration with the Policy maker are the primary users of the RAMCO system Eventually they should be able to quickly set up the system for a specific case and should be able to share their views through hands on experiments with stakeholders even with the public at large Developing a new application with the RAMCO DSS will in most cases start with a discussion between the Policy maker and the Analyst The Policy maker will pose the specific policy problems he is faced with He will define the policy measures that are to be tested the external influences that have an impact upon the system and the performance indicators and criteria which he wants to incorporate in the evaluation process Next he might be able to present a first analysis of possible cause and effect loops that typify the coastal system In the best of cases the Analyst will be able to select an existing integral model which has been implemented in RAMCO and adapt it to represent the new problem adequately To that end he will use a graphical model editor remove obsolete MBB s from the model select new MBB s from the MBB Libraries
38. When Accessibility parameters is selected an Accessibility parameters Compute accessibility dialog box will open which will request the user to enter a number per land use function reflecting the sensitivity of the function to good access to the network When Compute accessibility 1s selected new accessibility values per cell and per land use function are calculated Compute accessibility should be invoked every time the accessibility parameters have been changed or if the network has been changed White background Landuse Accessibility mangrove Accessibility nice culture Accessibility agriculture Accessibility shrimp culture When the network map is selected the View menu will get a number of additional commands These permit you to change the background colour of the network map Backgrounds will either be blank White background the actual land use Land use the standard option or the accessibility for one of the land uses Accessibility industry Accessibility tourism Accessibility rural settlement Accessibility urban 4 4 4 Suitability maps Command mangrove Use the Suitability maps command to select one of the suitability maps and its rice culture editor in the Suitability window With the Suitability editor it is possible to agriculture change a suitability map as cells can be given a different suitability value shrimp culture Industry M rural settlement
39. alised if this has not been done manually 4 6 3 Run Command Use the Run command to advance the simulation till the next pause tab has been reached This command 15 identical to clicking the Run button from the Tool bar Once the simulation is running it can be halted by the user by selecting the Stop command from the Simulation Menu or by pressing the Stop button from the Tool bar The default simulation run will take 300 months or 25 years The Macro model is updated on a monthly basis and the Micro model 1s updated every twelfth month every year 4 6 4 Stop Command Use the Stop command to interrupt the simulation This command is identical to clicking the Stop button from the Tool bar Once interrupted the simulation will halt till the user selects the Step Run command from the Simulation Menu or till the Step or Run button from the Tool bar is pushed 4 6 5 Reset Command Use the Reset command to switch the clock of the simulation back to 0 1 month 1 of year 0 This command is identical to clicking the Reset button from the Tool bar Selecting Reset will set the simulation clock equal to 0 1 the state variables and maps RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 50 will be set equal to their initial values hence the changes made during the simulation are lost and the parameters keep their actual value 4 6 6 Pauses Command Use the Pauses command to set the pa
40. ange parameter values in the Policy options Analyst Scenarios and Impacts Views This user type can not change the minimum and Modeller maximum ranges of parameters or variables User type Analyst can change parameter and variable values in all the Views of RAMCO In future versions of RAMCO this user type will be able to change existing models or build new models by means of MBB s available from the MBB libraries User type Modeller 1s not supported in this version of RAMCO In future versions this user type will be able to develop new MBB s and add those to the MBB libraries 4 7 6 Tool bar Command Use the Tool bar command to view or hide the Tool bar in the Applications window 4 7 7 Status bar Command Use the Status bar command to view or hide the Status bar in the Applications window RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 53 4 8 Window Menu Window Cascade Tile Horizontal Tile Vertical Use the Window menu to arrange the contents of the screen and to Arrange Icons activate one of the opened windows Close windows w 1 Micro scale dynamics 2 Macra scale dynamics 4 8 1 Cascade Command Use the Cascade command to arrange multiple opened windows in an overlapped fashion so that the Title bar of each window 1s visible 4 8 2 Tile Horizontal Command Use the Tile Horizontal command to vertically arrange multiple opened windows in a non overlapped fashion so t
41. ases only For example quantitative models are used to generate alternative solutions during the development phase while multi criteria analysis is used to select amoung alternative solutions in the selection phase This version of RAMCO provides support for both the first and the second phase RAMCO will help the user to get a better understanding of the origin of problems as they exist in SW Sulawesi or as they might pop up in a more or less distant future and it will support the user in the design and evaluation of alternative solution to cope with these problems The selection phase is less well supported bi RAMCO since there is less functionality built in to compare and rank alternative solutions other than what is available in ANALYSE Microsoft Excel or IDRISI RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 61 In the three exercises we will study the effects of external factors and policy interventions The exercises have been kept rather simple Their purpose is mainly to make you acquainted with RAMCO to the point that you will be able to run your own exercises First we will show how to study the effects of external factors Next we will see how interventions of the type policy interventions can be tested with the system If you intend to use RAMCO for planning or policy making you should remember that you are working with a model and that this particular model is a strong simplification of reality More RAMCO is an instrument
42. at are subject to policy interventions This is the View that will be used to select and typify the policy interventions that can be analysed with the simulation model 4 the View 3 Impacts View shows the parts of the model that contain the summarised information and policy indicators to evaluate the impacts of scenario and policy options settings It is via this View that further information about indicators can be selected In this prototype the model structure nor its graphical representation can be changed by the user RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 29 A RAMCO model consists of Model Building Blocks MBB s that contains the code required to calculate and execute mathematical operations varying from a single operation such as the sum of two numbers to a list of operations set of mathematical equations MBB s are connected to one another by means of MBB Connectors In order to improve the readability of the diagram it is possible to group parts of the model into a SuperMBB and represent it in the diagram as a single block The diagrams in the different Views have been built by means of these primitives Model Building Blocks The diagrams in the different Views allow the user to understand the structure of the model and to access parts of it Model building blocks are represented by means of a rectangle with the name of the MBB mn it Active Model Building Blocks appear in black on the display When the user
43. at have been studied rather extensively in mathematics physics computer science and artificial intelligence Gutowitz 1991 but until recently they were best known as games Gardner 1970 Tobler 1979 defined them as geographical models but only recently have they been applied in the spatial sciences e g Couclelis 1985 1988 Engelen et al 1993 1995 1996 White and Engelen 1994 1997 1997b A cellular automaton consists of an array of identical cells in which each cell can assume one of a discrete number of possible states at any one point in time Time progresses in discrete steps and all cells change state simultaneously as a function of their own state and the state of the cells in their immediate neighbourhood and defined in a set of state transition rules Flow and diffusion processes require spatial contiguity in order to take place since the interactions consist of point to point spread water currents carrying sediments from one cell to the neighbouring cells or seeds spreading from one site to another They can be represented in a fairly simple CA model defined in terms of the Moore neighbourhood consisting of a cell an its 8 nearest cells But socio economic interactions take place over distances beyond the nearest neighbours and neighbourhoods of a larger size are required to model them adequately As a result the neighbourhood of the land use model in RAMCO is a circular template consisting of 197 cells at th
44. ave a previous version of RAMCO software installed on your machine it 1s better to uninstall it first If you would want to keep it make sure to put this new version of RAMCO in a separate directory During the installation you may encounter a message asking whether you want to keep or replace certain files It is prefered to replace them for use with RAMCO Keeping the old files may cause malfunctioning of the software RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 19 1 Start Microsoft Windows 95 98 NT Insert the disk labelled RAMCO disk 1 2 into the drive 3 Click the Start button in the Windows 95 98 NT Task bar Move the mouse pointer to the Settings command and move on to the Control Panel option As a result the Control Panel dialog box will open Select from the list Add Remove Programs by double clicking it Next click the Install button in the Install Uninstall view of the Add Remove Programs dialog box 4 Next the Windows 95 98 NT installation program will be started and will request you to click the Next button until 1 the program has selected your disk drive as the installation medium and 2 until it will have found on the diskette the Setup EXE program for RAMCO Then the command line a setup EXE will appear in the edit field of the install window Hit Finish to have the program continue the installation 5 Continue clicking Next until the Read Me screen appears Make sure to read this page After clicking
45. ave to resize the Micro dynamics window such that it occupies the top half of the screen Then Zoom in 2 or 3 times to enlarge the cells to the point that you can easily distinguish them While doing so keep the focus of the map on the Jenerakikang region e Now we will develop Jenerakikang into an agricultural area Select from the Maps menu the Suitability map for agriculture Resize Zoom in and position it so that it 1s below the Micro scale dynamics window and is also focused on the Jenerakikang region RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 66 Now fill as accurately as possible all the forested Jenerakikang cells with a suitability value equal to 1 This action is similar to the development of perfect agricultural conditions in the region e Close the suitability map and open the Network map Zoom resize and position it so that it is below the Micro scale dynamics window and is also focused on the Jenerakikang region Build a road through the Jenerakikang region draw a Link from cell 133 171 to cell 126 195 This way the future farmers of the region get road access To confirm this change in the network select the Compute accessibility command from the Edit menu e Close the network map and open the Landuse map to create the agricultural area by changing all the forest cells of the Jenerakikang region into agriculture cells e Now select Save simulation from the File menu and save the simulation with the name
46. be more effectively directed if these microdynamics are better understood Hence they need to be represented in the decision instruments 4 Policy makers have to deal with uncertainty Despite all scientific knowledge that is currently available it has not been possible to accurately predict the behaviour of complex natural and antropogenic processes It is possible however to make certain statements about the robustness of the behaviour of the system when it 1s disturbed by interventions RAMCO supports an exploratory use of models In this way it particularly helps to narrow down the number of possible interventions without making a predictive statement about the only or optimal intervention RAMCO uses integrated spatial models in which natural social and economic processes are fully linked on an appropriate detailed scale It uses spatial information from GIS and static and or descriptive GIS operations The models are used to simulate reality and they show the user a glimpse of the future in all its complexity either influenced by him or not Time has the same meaning as in non linear thermodynamics there 1s only one calendar one time loop in which all processes occur simultaneously and time runs clockwise only This is very different from the classic mechanics based approach in which sub processes are solved separately and sequentially each sub process produces an output which is passed from one sub process to the next
47. ce of the authors that public policy problems are often complex problems rather than complicated problems meaning that the problems touch the near complete system but could be given an adequate answer if a limited formal description of the whole system would be available As a result we believe that the development of an integral model will foremost involve a simplification and aggregation effort in order to enable policy use of models that have been developed most of the time for research purposes Technical integration deals with the ways in which existing models their software representation databases user interfaces input and output devices can be coupled into a single system running on the end user s computer platform In the computer sciences technical integration has been given a lot of attention It has become much easier at least for the technicians among us and should no longer be the limiting factor in the development of a usable integral model From a computer science point of view integration of models is very much a problem of software component integration Software components are pieces of software that are designed for re use The ideal software component is platform independent and can be plugged into a software system like a plug into a socket In the last decades several software component technologies have been developed some of which are platform independent On the PC platform on which RAMCO r
48. ctor of the issuing block and Connector the In connector of the receiving block For each variable or parameter that is being exchanged one connection is drawn except if one of the MBB s is a SuperMBB in the diagram All In connectors are grouped on the n side of the MBB and all the Out connectors are grouped on the Out side The In side and Out side of the MBB can never coincide Apart from this restriction the user can freely decide which of the four sides of the MBB are In and or Out side In the diagrams In and Out Connectors will appear that are not connected to other MBB s Rather they are represented by means of a special symbol in red They represent the connections that cross from one View into the other Specifically in the Scenarios Policy options and Impacts Views connectors are used that refer to the fact that the MBB is connected to a larger diagram which is not RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 30 completely represented in the respective View Connector Description Standard In Connector bringing in information from another MBB Standard Out Connector issuing information available to another MBB In Connector bringing in information from a Scenario MBB In Connector bringing in information from a Policy options MBB Out Connector issuing information to an Impacts MBB In Connector bringing in information from a MBB not shown in the View Out Connector issuing information to a MBB not shown i
49. d the information in the About window and push the O K button or the RAMCO icon Immediately the Open dialog box will open If not push the Open Simulation file button Look in the Open dialog box for files with a SIM extension Open By means of the standard Windows a i E Laui E a 95 98 NT manipulations 22 dialogs H you can navigate Objects through the directories 8 Sulawesi sim 4 on your hard disk or on another computer in the network in search of the simulation file of your choice Once the name of the file appears in the Open dialog box select ile Heme it and press the Open Files of type Simulation sim CA button or double click the file icon RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 25 In fact the SIM file contains references to all the files that are required to run a model Later in this chapter we will give more detail about the contents and composition of the SIM files Once all files have been loaded two windows will appear in the Application window one titled Micro scale dynamics and the other Macro scale dynamics 3 1 1 The Micro scale dynamics window The Micro scale dynamics window is split into 3 viewing areas called Panes Panes are separated from one another by means of Splitter bars You can displace the Splitter bars to change the size of the Panes To this end position the cursor over the Splitter bar The cursor changes to the Split Pointer see
50. demic Publishers Dordrecht Kok de J L and Wind H G 1996 Towards a Methodology for Sustainable Coastal Zone Management A Case Study for South West Sulawesi Twente University Department of Civil Engineering Technology amp Management The Netherlands Kok de J L and Wind H G 1999 Methodology for Sustainable Coastal Zone Management in the Tropics The Integrative Research Twente University Department of Civil Engineering Technology amp Management The Netherlands Prigogine I 1981 From Being to Becoming Freeman San Francisco Rogerson D 1997 Inside COM Microsoft Press Redmond Washington USA RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 69 Rothenberg J 1989 The Nature of Modelling in Widman L E Loparo K A and Nielsen N R Artificial Intelligence Simulation and Modelling John Wiley amp Sons New York pp 75 92 Tobler W 1979 Cellular Geography in Gale S and Olsson G eds Philosophy in Geography Reidel Dordrecht pp 379 386 White R and Engelen G 1993 Cellular Automata and Fractal Urban Form a Cellular Modelling Approach to the Evolution of Urban Land use Patterns Environment and Planning A 25 pp 1175 1199 White R and Engelen G 1994 Cellular Dynamics and GIS Modelling Spatial Complexity Geographical Systems 1 pp 237 253 White R Engelen and Uljee I 1997a The Use of Constrained Cellular Automata for High R
51. e Sub models will in general operate at one level but may exchange information with sub models at the other level MACRO SCALE SYSTEMS MODEL WATER MANAGEMENT M water amp eee HU River Na catchment Residential Ld Lire ECONOMY MICRO SCALE CELLULAR MODEL Macra scale allocation suitability A oe i ae A A Physical e Tum factors gt Av EP c Environmental ES d 7 EE p Arm or ad dae de e gt factors S ee UE E VE VE yl Instibutional _ factors LID infra Structure GIS or GEOGRAPHICAL DATABASE At the macro level the model integrates several component sub models representing the natural social and economic sub systems of the coastal zone These are all linked to one RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 13 another in a network of mutual reciprocal influence The macro level allows for the use of regionalised representations and for different types of mathematical representations thus permitting a more or less detailed modelling of various aspects of the sub systems as required for specific applications The micro level models are cellular models they are developed on a cellular aray of identical cells At this level RAMCO supports the use of models that are based on the theory of Cellular Automata CA Cellular Automata are mathematical objects th
52. e comparison of maps from different log files is possible File Options Colours Help sp BL nature f E Functions B mangrove rice cultu BE agricultur Bb shrimp cul B industry E tourism rural sett B urban Features sea BE inland wat Bb airport harbor beach B critical The ANALYSE window has a menu bar with the menus File Options and Help The File menu contains commands to open and close log files to print and exit Select Open to open a log file If there is already a log file open the program will append up to a maximum of 42 maps the maps of the newly opened file to the current list Thus you will have the possibility of comparing maps from different simulation runs and RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 57 log files Select Close to close all the log files opened Select Print to send the contents of the ANALYSE window to the default printer using the default printer setup of your Windows environment Select Exit to quit the ANALYSE program The Options menu gives you the possibility to overlay a grid on the map select Show grid Hide grid to represent each cell by a circle instead of a square select Circle Square and to hide or show the legend select Hide legend Show legend The Help menu only contains an About option Just underneath the menu bar there is a toolbar It contains three list boxes and four picture buttons e Pushing the first button will display the map se
53. e maximum Except for purely theoretical problems See for example Gardner 1970 White and Engelen 1993 spatial problems are set in spaces that have idiosyncrasies and heterogeneities at all levels of detail In RAMCO heterogeneities have been introduced on the level of the individual cells of the cellular space The apparent similarity of cellular spaces with raster based GIS systems led us to define these in terms of geographical factor maps Wright 1990 and derived suitabilities and accessibilities This allows us to introduce physical environmental institutional and historical characteristics in dynamic models at high levels of spatial resolution 1 4 3 GIS component RAMCO can handle cellular models with dimensions up to 500 by 500 cells In its actual form it is most useful for modelling problems on grids which resolution varies from 50 to 500 meter RAMCO has all the facilities required to be used as a stand alone application it has all the editors required to enter new or to modify existing information it permits to import GIS data and to export its geographical output to GIS systems In particular RAMCO has been equipped with the necessary data translators to exchange information with IDRISI for Windows Eastman 1995 IDRISI offers all the functionalities required to import enter or prepare the data for RAMCO S micro models and it offers a number of tools to further analyse the map output generated by RAMCO IDRISI f
54. ed Look in to change directories drives or network site Double click the name of the file you want to open You can also type the name and path of the file in the Filename box Choose open after you have typed the name of the file RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 39 4 1 3 Save simulation as Command Use the Save simulation as command to save a simulation to a disk When you save a simulation a Save As dialog box This box allows you to specify the name of the file and the location where you want to store it When you click the Save button RAMCO displays the Simulation file dialog box which shows an overview of the different files that constitute the simulation your are storing The file names that are preceded by a crossed check box have been changed by the user during the session and will be saved if the OK button is pushed If you want to save them under a different name click on the name and enter the new name of your choice Be careful not to change the extension of the files 4 1 4 Import file Command Use the Import file command to import a file from disk into the simulation Importing and exporting files is possible for all maps that can be edited in the system Land Use Suitability Network Regions map The type of map has to be selected from the menu and has to be in the active window before the Import file command will be active When active Import file
55. enting a policy option 6 4 Exercise c studying the impacts of other coastal processes on policy effectiveness 7 References 8 ANNEX A Pointer Shapes 9 ANNEX B Factors and Weights RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 4 57 97 61 61 62 64 65 69 71 72 1 Introduction RAMCO is a prototype of an information system which 1s to evolve eventually into a Generic Decision Support Environment for the Integral or rapid Assessment of Coastal Zone Management problems The ultimate aim 15 to develop an environment that will be applicable for the purpose of 1 integral assessment of 2 a wide range of coastal zone management problems in 3 a large variety of coastal zones The term generic in this report is to be understood is this sense The first version of RAMCO was developed as part of the project RAMCO Generic Decision Support System for the Rapid Assessment phase of Sustainable Coastal Zone Management financed by the National Institute for Coastal and Marine Management RIKZ Rijkswaterstaat and the associated Coastal Zone Management Centre CZMc Contract RKZ 308 and carried out by the consortium consisting of INFRAM bv Zeewolde main contractor and RIKS bv Maastricht The version 2 0 of RAMCO is the result of the Land Water Environment Information technology LWI Project Integral Systems Analysis in the LWI Estuaria and Coasts project group The end users of this LWI
56. ere is no need to specify intevals and minimum values for negative numbers 4 4 6 Regions Command Use the Regions command to view the Regions map in the Regions window The Regions map shows the different geographical entities for which the model will generate regional sums The Regions map is fixed for the model and can not be changed by the user Component When the Regions map 15 selected the Edit menu will get one additional command named Component When this command is clicked a dialog box will open requesting the user to enter a weight for each land use These weights are multiplied with the total number of cells of that type and presented in the information window which can be opened by clicking in a region Thus the number of cells can be translated in another measure 1 e if the component is the surface of a cell in ha the totals generated will be the area in ha taken in per land use function 4 4 9 USLE maps Command Rainfall Use the USLE maps command to view the spatial parameters used in the Erosion sensitivity USLE MBB of the Macro scale model in the USLE map window The Slope following 3 USLE parameters can be viewed Rainfall R factor Erosion RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 47 sensitivity K factor and Slopes The USLE maps are fixed in the model and can not be changed by the user 4 4 10 Potential Command mangrove Use the Potential command to view one
57. erwriting files can be avoided by simply choosing another file name than the current one Once the name of the file 15 entered and the Save button has been pressed the system will display the Simulation file SIM dialog box If you are a relatively new user of RamCo simply press the OK button to complete the action of Simulation file NewH ame sim Director c program filessramcaz s Lave File Macro model data usersetl txt Cancel saving the simulation and Rules sulawesi trf skip the remainder of this Landuse maps ssulanewd map BTGVISETS section If however you Elevation maps sulanew hgt are more experienced with x Network netwark net the system this dialog box Suitability will help you to change the mangrove Amaps euitmang swt composition of your tice culture Amaps suitrice swt simulation file before agriculture Amaps suitagri swt saving it The dialog box shrimp culture Amaps suitshrp swt shows an overview of all industry Amaps suiting swt the file types and their tourism swt respective names that are used in a simulation RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 36 In the dialog box the files are preceded by a check box Files preceded by a crossed check box will be saved with the name mentioned to their right The program keeps track of the actions that the user has performed during a session and knows what files are a
58. esolution Modelling of Urban Land Use Dynamics Environment and Planning B 24 pp 323 343 White R and Engelen G 1997b Cellular Automata as the Basis of Integrated Dynamic Regional Modelling Environment and Planning B 24 pp 235 246 Wright J R 1990 ISIS Toward an Integrated Spatial Information System in Kim T J Wiggins L L Wright J R eds Expert Systems Applications to Urban Planning Springer Verlag New York pp 43 66 RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 70 8 ANNEX A Pointer Shapes Pointer Shape Standard MS Windows Pointer Shapes Standard Windows cursor Standard I beam cursor for editing windows Sizing cursor to change the width of the window Displayed when the pointer is on top of a vertical window border Sizing cursor to change the height of the window Displayed when the pointer is on top of a horizontal window border Sizing cursor to change the width and or the height of the window Displayed when the pointer is on top of a window corner Sizing cursor to change the width and or the height of the window Displayed when the pointer is on top of a window corner Context Sensitive pointer to get on line help on the command you click on Insert cursor to insert values in an MBB dialog edit field by means of the text value and table editor Insert cursor to insert values in an MBB dialog edit field by means of the text value and graph editor Pen cursor to pick a value
59. f the map on your screen by a factor 2 This command is identical to selecting the Zoom in icon from the Tool bar 4 3 3 Zoom out Command Use the Zoom out command to reduce the size of the map on your screen by a factor 2 This command 15 identical to selecting the Zoom out icon from the Tool bar When the Micro scale dynamics window 15 the active window the View menu 15 completed with four additional commands Show regions Show network Show elevation and 3D settings These commands allow the user to draw overlay information on top of the Micro scale simulation window 4 3 4 Show regions Command Use the Show regions command to draw or remove the boundaries of the regions as defined in the Regions map on top of the land uses in the Micro scale dynamics window 4 3 5 Show network Command Use the Show network command to draw or remove the network as defined in the network map on top of the land uses in the Micro scale dynamics window 4 3 6 Show elevation Command Use the Show elevation command to change the flat land use map of the Micro scale dynamics window into a 3D representation The relief of this representation 1s as defined in the elevation map 4 3 7 3D settings Command RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 43 Use the 3D settings command to change the manner in which the 3D diagram is represented This command is only active when the land use map of the Micro
60. ffected by it These files are shown with their check box crossed and that is why the program suggests to save them If however you do not want a new copy for example because the corrections you made are not important to you then you simple cross out the check box Although this procedure might seem cumbersome at first it will become a great help to you once you are more familiar with the system RAMCO saves its output in exactly the same format as its inputs Hence you can always use saved simulations as the input for a new run Keep in mind however that the simulation clock will be set back to 0 1 when you continue a simulation in this way Save simulation will only save final results of the model current values of state variables and parameters It will not store intermediate results To save these you should make use of the Log and the Link to Excel commands from the Options menu Log will save Micro scale simulation results More in particular it will store maps in a LOG file When the Log command is selected the user will have to enter the interval for which he wants to store maps The Link to Excel command will permit to send simulation data to a Microsoft Excel Workbook More in particular the values of the policy impact indicators and accessible from the Impacts View can be send to Excel It is possible to save this Workbook using the Excel commands and thus store the data for fu
61. g a better insight in the actual decision domain and the particular decision situations they permit to calculate alternative comparable futures thus constituting an instrument to investigate the likeliness of a desirable situation through experimentation But simulation models remain poor decision tools in the sense that they are not goal directed Rather an initial condition along with constraints on the model is solved and propagated forwards in time By means of What if analysis the user is to change the initial state or the constraints until the model produces a desirable final goal state It is by no means certain that this goal state can or will ever be reached nor 15 it very clear why it is or 15 not reached Future research in the field should focuss on the development and inclusion in the DSS of tools that extend simulation models beyond what if in the sense meant by Rothenberg 1989 The application of multi objective and multi criteria methods on simulation results will certainly help in the decision making process while the application of techniques such as Constraint Satisfaction Genetic Algorithms and Neuro computing might reduce the potential search space substantially 1 2 Modelling and decision making philosophy At the centre of the methodology propagated by RAMCO is the idea that a good policy is first of all a policy based on the right information and sufficient knowledge about the system for
62. gained by using integral models meaning complex coupled models which make it possible to understand the main driving forces within the system 2 Policy makers intervene in iving systems which are never at equilibrium Rather they are in a thermodynamic far from equilibrium condition Thus policy makers intervene in a dynamic reality Their interventions cause irreversable effects and even small interventions in the system can have unexpected and macroscopic consequences These can lead to changes in the system in the short or long term paradigm of self organization see for example Prigogine 1981 Engelen 1988 RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 7 1 3 This requires strongly linked dynamic models to grasp the feed back loops and the complexity which characterizes reality 3 Policy makers intervene in spatial systems In space processes occur in more or less defined clusters of high and low concentration Antropogenic and natural processes do not occur on average neither evenly spread or constant in time The detailed and changing spacing 15 controlled by the spatial interaction between physical processes and spatial human mobile agents A true representation of a policy domain therefore requires spatial dynamic models Literature shows that the robustness and succes of a spatial system such as a coastal zone particularly depends on its diversity its complexity and its behaviour on a microscale Policies can
63. hat all windows are visible 4 8 3 Tile Vertical Command Use the Tile Vertical command to arrange multiple opened windows side by side in a non overlapped fashion so that all windows are visible 4 6 4 Arrange Icons Command Use the Arrange Icons command to arrange the icons for minimized windows at the bottom of the screen If RAMCO S windows are positioned at the bottom of the screen they may hide some or all of the icons 4 8 5 Close windows Command Use the Close windows command to close all the opened windows except for the ones that can not be closed in particular the Micro scale dynamics and Macro scale dynamics windows 4 8 6 List of Windows 1 2 3 4 At the bottom of the Windows menu a list of open windows 15 presented A check mark appears in front of the document name of the active window Choose a name from this list to make the window active RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 54 4 9 Help Menu Index Using Help Use the Help menu to select the type of Help you want RAMCO to display on the screen The different commands in this menu will permit to look up information on about RAMCO its commands options and tools About 4 9 1 Index Command Use the Index command to get the opening screen of the Help file of RAMCO From the Opening screen you can jump to step by step instructions for using RAMCO Double click the topic you want help on A Help screen will
64. he manner in which the map 1s displayed The possibility exist to Zoom in to Zoom out or to change the elevation categories with the Legend dialog box Suitability For each land use function a suitability map is present in the model It shows how suitable each cell in the region 15 to receive that land use Suitability calculations are rather standard GIS operations Suitabilities are composite measures that involve the manipulation of so called Factor Maps A factor 15 a unique geographical attribute such as slope soil type or vegetation cover Variations within a factor such as the degrees of slope soil classifications or density of vegetation cover are referred to as factor types A factor map is showing the geographical location and distribution of factor types for a given factor Factor maps can be combined in various ways to generate a composite map depicting the relative capability of any given geographical unit to support a specific land use These composite maps are displaying the so called suitability of the individual geographical entities in our case cells In the SW Sulawesi model a linear combination of factors has been applied the importance of a factor type for a specific land use 1s first rated and next the factors are weighted and summed In Annex B an example of the factor type ratings and factor weights is given The suitability calculations are done in IDRISI for Windows and the resulting suitability maps are imported in RAM
65. in a chain like fashion In the latter approach time is only an intermediate variable which is set back and rerun for each sub process separately The knowledge contained in RAMCO is mainly available in the form of mathematical sub models and algorithms These sub models fit into an integrated dynamic model of the coastal zone Although RAMCO calculates nearly the entire integrated model in the background the user can limit himself to selecting those model components that are required to home in onto his problem The processes that remain in the background will make certain that the consistency in the system be maintained All the models used in RAMCO are fully documented in on line documentation pages in which characteristics of the sub models and their connection to the larger model are explained This transparency has been implemented with the aim of informing RAMCO users as completely as possible about the possibilities the system offered as well as on the details of the calculations it performs They also provide information on the source of the knowledge used and the hypotheses which underlie this scientific material Policy analysis by means of RAMCO Inherent in the aims that lead to the development of RAMCO is the positivistic view that the use of scientific models and methods can improve the policy making process More in particular RAMCO adheres to the view that better informed policy makers are better RamCo User Guide Version 2
66. in order to fit a reference system of some sort 4 7 2 Font Command Use the Font command to change the font font style and size of the character set used to print the legends of maps and the informative windows 4 7 3 Link to Excel Command Use the Link to Excel command to link RAMCO with the Microsoft Excel Workbook IMPACT XLS This link is a DDE Dynamic Data Exchange link Via this link RAMCO is sending model output to the Workbook while the simulation is advancing Note that in order to establish a successful link it 15 required that Excel is installed on your machine If RAMCO can not find Excel the menu option will be greyed out The Workbook IMPACT XLS is available to the user once the simulation 15 finished It can be used for further analysis of the simulation data 4 7 4 Log Command Use the Log command to store the land use maps produced by the micro level model in a LOG file When Log is selected a dialog box will open requesting the user to enter the name of the LOG file and the interval for which simulation results are to be written to the file LOG files can be analysed by means of the ANALYSE utility program see section 5 4 7 5 User Command Use the User command to select one of the three user types supported by RAMCO Policy maker Analyst and Modeller RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 52 Policy maker User type Policy Maker can only ch
67. inting at it in the cascading menu that will open and by clicking it As a result the Graph editor will open From its title bar you will read what interaction is to be entered Effect of land use LU2 on land use LUI 4 5 2 Overview Command Use the Overview command to get an overview of the complete set of interaction rules defined in the model The colours representing the different land uses are the same as those in the Micro scale window RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 49 4 6 Simulation Init step Aun Stop Reset Pauses Random Steps Simulation Menu Use the Simulation menu to control the simulation 4 6 1 Init Command Use the Init command to initialise the simulation After the model has been initialised all the variables are displaying the correct initial condition values of the model If the Step or Run command is selected the simulation will be automatically initialised if this has not been done manually 4 6 2 Step Command Use the Step command to advance the simulation with one step This command is identical to clicking the Step button from the Tool bar The size of the step is set by the Steps command in the same Simulation menu Once the model has been initialised all the windows display the correct initial condition values of the model If the Step or Run command is selected the simulation will be automatically initi
68. ional Research 37 pp 42 57 Engelen G White R and Uljee L 1993 Exploratory Modelling of Socio Economic Impacts of Climatic Change in Maul G A ed Climate Change in the Intra Americas Sea Edward Arnold London pp 306 324 Engelen G White R Uljee I and Drazan P 1995 Using Cellular Automata for Integrated Modelling of Socio Environmental Systems Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 34 pp 203 214 Engelen G White R Uljee I and Wargnies S 1996 Numerical Modelling of Small Island Socio Economics to Achieve Sustainable Development In Small Islands Marine Science and Sustainable Development Edited by G A Maul American Geophysical Union pp 437 463 Engelen G van der Meulen M Hahn B 1999 A Spatial Modelling Tool for Integrated Environmental Decision making Proceedings of the 5 EU GIS Workshop held in Stresa June 28 30 1999 Gardner M 1970 The fantastic combinations of John Conways new solitaire game Life Scientific American 223 pp 120 123 Gough C Castells N and Funtowics S 1998 Integrated Assessment an emerging methodology for complex issues Environmental Modeling and Assessment 3 pp 19 29 Gutowitz H 1991 Cellular Automata Theory and Experiment MIT Press Cambridge Massachusetts Holtzman S 1989 Intelligent Decision Systems Addison Wesley Reading Janssen R 1992 Multiobjective Decision Support for Environmental Management Kluwer Aca
69. is not as yet a major destination for domestic and foreign tourists The regional authorities are planning to develop local tourism and recreation North of the river mouth an area of 1000 ha has been given a tourism destination The possible morphological changes of the river delta the problems caused by the increasing pollution and the risks for flooding have not been taken into consideration sufficiently 7 Over exploitation of marine resources As the population of the coastal zone traditionally depends very largely on fish for its food and proteine intake the fish stocks in the strait of Makassar are strongly subject to overfishing This problem has become a severe one and plans have been made to create a marine park where fishing 1s forbidden in oder to allow the fish stocks to recover somewhat Meanwhile dynamite fishing 15 still practiced in the Spermonde archipelago which causes substantial damage to the coral reefs and the depletion of the fish stocks Moreover the urbanisation process is accompanied by large scale infrastructural developments and construction activities which leads to an increasing demand for construction material Coral reefs provide a cheap base material for the cement This coral mining takes place around the islands in the reef zones of the Spermonde archipelago RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 18 2 Getting Started This chapter explains how to install RAMCO on your computer and how to start
70. it menu will get one additional command named Change landuse This command allows you to change the name and colour of the land use functions When it is selected a Change Land use dialog box will open 4 4 2 Elevation Command Use the Elevation command to select the elevation map and its editor in the Elevation window With the Elevation editor it 1s possible to change the elevation map as cells can be given a different height When the land use map 15 selected the View menu will get one additional command Ledger named Legend This command allows you to change the classification that is used to display the elevation data on the map When it is selected a Legend dialog box will open It will request you to enter the maximum of the highest class the interval of values above sea level the minimum of the lowest class and the interval of classes below sea level These data are used to create classes of equal length 4 4 3 Network Command Use the Network command to select the network map and its editor in the Network window With the Network editor it is possible to change the network as network links and network nodes can be added to the network or removed from it When the network map is selected the Edit menu will get two additional commands named Accessibility parameters and Compute accessibility RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 45 Accessibility parameters
71. lected in the first left list box e Pushing the second button 2 will display the map selected in the second middle list box e Pushing the third button will display differences between the two maps selected in the first left and the second middle list box Differences are displayed for the land use selected in the third right list box The comparisons are made on a cell by cell basis TU Eile Options Colours TEST 0 TEST5 in map 1 nat in 2 Ej In map 1 in map 2 B in map 2 nat in 1 e Pushing the fourth button will display the differences between the two maps selected in the first and the second list box by means of a matrix like numerical overview Next to this matrix representation also the Kappa statistic 1s calculated and represented The Kappa statistic 1s a measure of the resemblance of both maps compared globally or per land use The resemblance is expressed by means of a figure in the range 0 1 RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 58 File Options Help The number of cells changed from row to column naturmangr rice agric shrim indus touri rural urban sea inlan airpo harbo beach criti nature f 12351 440 308 f 0 1 0 14 0 20 0 0 0 0 mangrove 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 rice cultu 0 6245 172 157 2 0 32 106 0 0 0 0 0 0 agricultur 232 0 24 Ub 3 0 0 20 20 0 8 0 0 0 0 shrimp cul 35 0 11 44 0 0 0 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 industry 0 0 0 0 2 16 0 0 2 0 0 0
72. mCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 62 It 15 good practice to manage your windows very carefully This will keep you from being distracted and will help you to focus on the problem studied Keep only the windows opened that are of direct interest to you Windows and dialogs that are not visible are updated in the background hence you can always open them later if you would want to consult them As a result of the above actions your Application window should look more or less like this 77 RAMCO a module for rapid assesment of CZM problems developed by RIKS by and Infram bv File Edit View Maps Rules Simulation Options Window Help ZA Lea el Step Run Stop Reset 0 1 CE Micro scale dynamics 3 Population growth nature forest m Initial urban papulatian 1 030 M ee Initial population 0 920 _ Population growth rate 1 80 O rice culture Relative population growth 1 00 B agriculture shrimp culture E industry Policy Value Score Criterion atdate at date E tourism B Total BOD load ooo ooo ooo rural residential Area covered with mangrove 3200 3200 oO arhan Area covered with forest and other natural land 170000 170000 0 Relative biomass reef fish 100 100 000 sea Relative biomass demersals 1800 100 000 seagrass Relative biomass small pelagics 1200 100 000 ner Relative biomass large pelagics too 100
73. menu The rules are written as distance functions expressing the manner in which land uses influence one another stating whether they attract or repel one another in their vicinity These rules are defined for each possible combination of land uses The model is very sensitive to the values entered for most rules Hence changing rules can have dramatic RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 27 effects on the micro scale dynamics We advice not to change the transition rules unless you have gained a lot of experience with running the model An overview of the complete set of rules can be seen when selecting Overview from the Rules menu Next to the transition rules the intrinsic characteristics of the cell itself will influence its potential for change to another land use These are represented in the model by means of maps namely the Elevation map the Suitability map and the Network map the maps are accessible via the Maps menu Elevation The elevation map is displaying the relief above and below sea level of the modelled region It is important for the model to the extent that land below sea level is not suitable for socio economic use and that this land can not be allocated to one or the other land use activity Indirectly the elevation will influence the suitability of a number of activities Select Elevation from the Maps menu to have it displayed in a new window on the screen The View Menu allows to change t
74. methods will rather assume that the decision maker desires to make decisions on the basis of a consistent line of reasoning and will suggest solutions in a way that makes intuitive sense to him Holtzman 1989 We insist on the fact that a DSS is not the same as a model with a nice user interface This abuse of the term DSS has become very common The difference between a model and a DSS resides in the fact that a model solves a very precisely defined problem while the DSS is developed to solve problems that can not easily be reduced to known problems or solutions It provides the user with models methods and tools that allow to find the best possible answer to the problem Hence it will not necessarily give a precise answer or solution rather it will approach a solution in a manner similar to an heuristic procedure DSS emphasise flexibility effectiveness and adaptability hence are at best systems with an open architecture to permit their renewal and expansion as new knowledge and tools become available The primary function of DS systems is to improve the quality of the decision making process It 15 inherently understood that if the process can be improved higher quality decisions will be the end result From the management sciences DSS methodologies have adopted the view that decision making is a process consisting of various stages that are stepped through linearly or cyclically Generally three major pha
75. model Not only do they provide information about the different variables and parameters that appear in the dialog boxes and are used in the MBB but they also contain information about the mathematical expressions used etc Moreover MBB s that get as an input data from other MBB s will display the names of these variables in green and underlined If the user clicks this hyper text then the documentation page of the corresponding MBB 15 opened Thus the user can navigate through the whole model to uncover how it fits together In the dialog boxes model results and model inputs are presented in Edit Fields The difference between input and output fields 1s indicated by the colour of the text in the edit field green for state variables to be entered as initial values and for the remainder output of the MBB purple and blue for intermediate variables black for variables or parameters copied from other MBB s output of the MBB and finally red for internal parameters of the MBB input for the MBB Colour of text in the Edit Fields of Description MBB dialog boxes Input Parameter value can be changed during the entire simulation or State variable at the initial state Input Variable value If the edit field is clicked a dialog will pop up requesting input necessary for the calculation of the variable Input Output State variable which can be changed at the start of the simulation and which display output for the remai
76. n Close close the application window 2 5 2 The Caption bar The Caption bar also called Title bar of the Application window displays RAMCO To the left of the Caption bar three buttons are positioned that enable you to re size the 5 Application window e The Minimize button allows you to shrink the window to an icon same as Minimize in the Control Menu box e The Maximize button allows you to enlarge the application window to the full size of the screen same as Maximize in the Control Menu box e The Close button allows you to close the application window and thus quit the application same as Close in the Control Menu box 2 5 3 The Menu bar The Menu bar of the Application window contains RAMCO s main Menu The commands are logically organised in the menu so that you will quickly become RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 21 comfortable with the various functions of the program The menus are summarised in the table below subsequent chapters elaborate on the description Chapter 4 gives an overview of all menu commands File manage your simulation files The printing facilities are also located in this menu and if you want to exit the program you can do it from here Edit edit the maps that are part of the micro scale model commands for editing are located here Depending on the type of map that is active the appropriate edit features are listed and accessible View change the way a map is displayed
77. n the View Dialog boxes Each MBB has a dialog box attached to it This dialog box is the vehicle that permits the interactive exchange of information between the user and the Model Building Block The MBB will communicate the results output of its numerical operations to the user and it will accept the data entered input by the user that are required for the execution of the MBB It concerns data that are internal to the MBB and which it does not get from other MBB s via its In Connectors Model documentation File Edit Bookmark Options Help Agricultural nutrition definition This MEE calculates the fraction of the population whose consumption of rice and agriculture can be supplied by the coastal zone application This MBB applies to nutrition for the sectors Riceculture Agriculture mathematical formulation 1 BI DELETE Mut E 4 SV 2 Te lt TGE oui commectar s Nut C Percentage of the population whose consumption of products of sector i is supplied by the coastal zone 94 interna parameter s none in comnmector s SV 2 Production volume of sector at time t torr Consumption demand for products from sector ton yr reference s J L de Kok Development of a methodology for sustainble coastal zone management with application to the coastal area of South West Sulawesi Indonesia Dept of Coal Engineering Technology amp Management Twente
78. nder Output Variable value read only Output Values copied from other MBB s read only RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 32 A simple way of finding out whether a field will accept input or not 1s by simply moving the mouse over it If the field can be edited the mouse pointer will change shape in function of the type of data that are to be entered If the mouse 15 clicked the appropriate editor is opened In Annex A the meaning of the different pointers is explained One of three editors will open ber A single value numerical editor Edit value E4 E This editor allows the user to enter a single numerical value More Minimum 50 precisely it will display a default setting the result of the ccr Fo n calibration of the model with the request to change it with a value P within the range specified Enter a value between the given minimum and a n Minimum lt value entered lt Maximum E If values outside this range are entered the user 1s warned bey A table of values editor This editor allows the user to enter a series of numerical values More precisely it will request the user to change default values The values entered will all have to be inside a range specified Minimum lt value entered lt Maximum If values outside this range are entered the user is warned A graph editor Edit graph This editor 1s used extensively in RAMCO in both
79. o develop the urban area expansion of the harbour the airport and the nearby industrial site Thus the city will continue to exert a major drawing force on the rural area Its population size is expected to double in the next 20 years This causes major pressure on the land in the coastal fringe but also causes problems related to waste generation 2 Aquaculture Along the coastline most of the mangroves providing a natural coastline protection have been cut to be replaced by brackish water ponds called tambaks to grow fish prawns and seaweed The main driving force of this mechanism is the export market which is an important source of foreign currency For S W Sulawesi Aquaculture in tambaks now represents 70 of the total monetary production of the fish sector The tambaks which often use the tidal action for waste discharge also form a major source of coastal waters pollution due to the intensive utilisation of antibiotics and overfeeding of the prawns RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 17 3 Intensified Agriculture The introduction of new high yielding rice varieties and increased use of fertilisers exacerbate ground and surface water pollution The productivity of the rice fields almost entirely depends on the amount of irrigation The runoff of fertilisers and pesticides affects the quality of the water used for nearby tambaks 4 Erosion in the upland area The catchment area upstream the Bili Bili dam is cha
80. ommand named Legend This command allows you to change the classification that is used to display the coral data on the map When it is selected a Legend dialog box will open It will request you to enter the maximum of the highest class the interval of the classes containing positive numbers the minimum of the lowest class and the interval of classes containing negative numbers These data are used to create classes of equal length For the 3 Coral maps the values represented are always positive hence there is no need to specify intevals and minimum values for negative numbers 4 4 7 Wave height Use the Wave height command to select the Wave height map and its editor in the Wave height window With the Wave height editor it 1s possible to change the Wave height map as cells can be given a different Wave height value Leste When the Wave height map is selected the View menu will get one additional command named Legend This command allows you to change the classification that is used to display the wave height data on the map When it 1s selected a Legend dialog box will open It will request you to enter the maximum of the highest class the interval of the classes containing positive numbers the minimum of the lowest class and the interval of classes containing negative numbers These data are used to create classes of equal length For the Wave height map the values represented are always positive hence th
81. on algorithms available in Microsoft Excel Future developments Decision making with RAMCO will be to an extent a collaborative effort involving three distinctive types of users For the sake of clarity we name them Modeller Analyst and Policy Maker It is not excluded that different types are unified in one and the same person but given the specific technical and context knowledge required from each it 1s more likely that this is not the case This version of RAMCO does not as yet feature the full functionality required to support each of the users entirely In particular the editors required to alter the models are not as yet available to the Analyst and the Policy maker However later versions are intended to evolve into the general direction outlined below The Modeller is furthest away from the actual policy making process He is the most technical type and responsible for the development of the Model Building Blocks MBB s that are stored in the MBB Libraries This user has the knowledge and skills required to translate technical and conceptual problems posed by the Policy maker and the Analyst into quantitative models algorithms and new building blocks that are missing in the existing MBB libraries Next he is capable of implementing the algorithms into executable software code which respects the guidelines templates and interfaces that Active X component technology imposes The Analyst is capable of building integrated models b
82. or Windows has been selected because 1 itis a raster based GIS and thus fits the cellular paradigm by design 2 it makes use of standard file formats and thus permits the exchange of information with other GIS packages 3 itis easy to use and runs on most PC s under Windows RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 14 1 5 4 it is updated on a regular basis 5 itis very well documented and widely used both for training and policy making 6 it has been selected by UNEP and UNITAR as the system for use in developing nations 7 it 1s very reasonably priced It could be envisaged to include in the future versions of RAMCO aditional data translators to exchange GIS information with other commercial GIS packages 1 4 d DDE link with Excel With the aim of increasing RAMCO s level of re usability and flexibility the possibility has been built in to link it to Microsoft Excel More in particular there exists a DDE link between RAMCO S Simulation Environment and Excel In this prototype the link is one way at each simulation time step RAMCO sends a row of data to a predefined Microsoft Excel Workbook These data updated values of the goal variables are available to the user during and after the simulation and he has the full functionality of Microsoft Excel at his disposal to work with them Hence he can store the results or perform more or less sophisticated operations on the data using the evaluation and optimisati
83. plication as follows 5 art Start Microsoft Windows 2 Under the Windows 95 98 NT Start button and the Programs group you will find a group called RAMCO Double click on the RAMCO icon in the RAMCO group ec 3 RAMCO will be started and you will see the RAMCO Application window on your screen 2 5 Screen Layout When you start RAMCO you will enter immediately in the Application window of the simulation environment This is the window in which you will run your models Before RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 20 a simulation file is opened the screen is empty except for its top part Below we will describe the different components of this screen tion B Control Menu box File Edit View Maps Rules Simulation Options Window Help AGE fol oe Step Run Stop Reset 0 1 g M E inb ERE 2 Application Window For Help press F1 Status bar 2 5 1 The Control Menu box The Control Menu box contains the Application window Control Menu which controls how windows are arranged on the desktop The list below summarises the Control Menu Commands Use this command Restore restore the window to its previous size Move move the window using the arrow keys Size change the size of the window You can use the mouse or the arrow keys to change the size Minimize shrink the window to an icon Maximize enlarge the window to the full size of the scree
84. r clicks in the edit box Each MBB has its Documentation page in the Documentation system It is accessible when the dialog window of the MBB is opened by pressing the F1 key or clicking in the dialog window by means of the Context Sensitive Help cursor This Documentation page gives technical information about the MBB It can include the mathematical expression scientific references the specification of the In and Out Connectors etc A model block has a so called n Side and an Out Side The In Side is where the In Connectors are placed the Out Side 1s where Out connectors are placed Each of the four edges of the MBB can be the In Side or the Out Side The only limitation 1s that the In Side and the Out Side of an MBB can never be on one and the same edge In future versions of RAMCO the modeller will be enabled to manipulate the objects by means of a graphical editor He will place the Objects on the screen and connect them to each other in order to create a consistent and coherent model RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 12 1 4 2 Levels of spatial dynamics One of the unique features of RAMCO is its capability to deal with spatial dynamics at different levels within the same integral models More in particular RAMCO models will generally have two strongly coupled components one for macro level long range and large scale processes and a second one for processes operating on the micro level short range and micro scal
85. r low population growth rates for the coastal zone system and see how these affect the results of his selected policy options Aim The first exercise aims at analysing the effect of weak versus strong population growth in the sustainability of the coastal zone system More in particular we will analyse the effect of population growth on BOD production Screen arrangement In this exercise we want to try out population growth scenarios and evaluate the impacts thereof on the coastal zone More in particular we will analyse the effects on the BOD production in the coastal zone We will arrange the screen layout in a manner to have all the in and outputs of the model displayed which are of direct interest to us Thus we will be able to see how variables change while the simulation 1s running First on the Macro scale dynamics window select the Scenario View and click the Population growth MBB Activate the Population growth dialog box and drag it to the top right side of the application window Next select the Impacts View and click the Ecosystem vitality MBB Now drag the Ecosystem vitality dialog box to the right side of the Application window to position it just underneath the Population growth dialog box Next click the check box left of the text Total BOD load As a result the graph window will open again place it on the right side of the Application window Finally click the minimize button of the Macro scale dynamics window Ra
86. racterised by considerable soil erosion increased by intensive land use for horticulture products and large scale forestry Without proper counter measures the resulting runoff of sediments can reduce the life time of the reservoir Moreover the degradation of cultivable lands has lead to the expulsion of labour This makes more and more people dependant on marine resources for their livelihood or causes people to migrate to the city for their survival 5 Bili Bili dam and Jeneberang river The main purpose of the dam is to prevent the city from flooding by the Jeneberang river during the wet season The reservoir will contribute to the solution of the municipal water shortage in Ujung Pandang At present less than 50 of the demand is met by the municipal supply It is improbable that the water supply from the reservoir will be able to keep up with the rapid growth of the city Irrigation and hydropower are competing for water use Downstream of the dam problems can be expected as most of the sediment in the Jeneberang will be intercepted by the dam the amount of sediments transported to the coast is expected to reduce with 80 This may result in coastal morphologic changes of the land north of the river mouth On the other hand the near to the coast coral reefs and seagrass meadows will be less affected by terrigene sedimentation due to the decreased discharge of the Jeneberang river 6 Tourism in the delta S W Sulawesi
87. rakikang form Now select from the System diagram the Upstream catchment area SuperMBB and open the Sediment production and Sediment delivery MBB s dialog boxes Select from the scroll list the Jenerakikang region since that is the one we are interested in for the time being What if We will run a simulation in which we assume that suddenly which 15 rather unrealistic a large part of forested land in the river catchment area above the storage lake is deforested and developed for agricultural use occupation This simulation run we will check against a default run where no changes have been introduced e First enter a population growth of 3 19 if it is not already set at that value Switch on the decision to construct the dam by clicking the check box Run the simulation and check the changes that take place in the land use of the Jenerakikang region To get some figures about it click in the region and see how the land use composition 1s changing The changes in the land use the precise location of the changes in the region and the scenario entered for the precipitation in the region will cause the sediment production to change Write down some sediment production figures while the simulation is ticking away the years To finish this first part of the exercise push the Reset button from the Tool bar New screen arrangement In order to be able to see the details necessary to edit the different maps you will h
88. riented O O simulation environment and simulation language The objects are the so called Model Building Blocks 5 MBB s are more or less complete models They vary from simple mathematical operators such as Multipliers or Adders to rather sophisticated and nearly complete models consisting of coupled mathematical equations performing sophisticated calculations A Model Building Block represents a portion of the model an action or process Each MBB 15 represented by means of a unique graphical object that shows how the MBB relates and 1s connected to other MBB s in the model From this connection scheme the MBB knows where it has to get its input from and where it has to send its output to MBB s may simply represent sources of information 1 e entered from file or by the user other will transform information as it passes through them and still other will simply serve to communicate in a synthetic manner the outputs of the model to the user Despite the fact that all these MBB s play different roles in the model in Object oriented jargon they are all children of the same parent which 15 essentially a MBB capable of exchanging and transforming information RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 11 Drinking water amp hydro energy _ LL Upstream gt Storage lake River discharge catchment Py area 3 rrigation Next to the Model Building Blocks RAMCO
89. rther analysis 3 5 Printing simulation results Printing simulation results can be done in different manners RAMCO supports very directly the printing of maps To this end you can invoke from the File menu the commands Page Setup Print preview and Print First select Page Setup to decide on the scale of the map expressed as the number of cells which you want to print per unit of measurement for example 5 cells 5 400 m 2000 m per cm for a map of SW Sulawesi at a scale of 1 200 000 then select Print Preview to get an idea on how the printed maps will look like and finally push the Print button in the Print Preview window or from the Tool bar to print the maps Results from the Macro level model can be printed by selecting Link to Excel from the Options menu and use the Excel print functions to get the results on paper If you want from a particular MBB then click it to open its dialog box Once the dialog box is open key in Alt Prt Sc This will put the dialog box on the Windows Clipboard Now open your Paintbrush Paint or Word Processing package and select Paste from its Edit menu Once the dialog window has been pasted Print the dialog by using the print facilities of the receiving package This procedure works not only for dialogs but for all RAMCO s windows It is handy to print among other the 3 D representation of the study area RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 37 RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 19
90. s we imagine that specific Libraries could be developed similar to the engineering and manufacturing fields that will group the MBB s required for specific coasts such as Tropical coasts Arctic coasts Sandy coasts Strongly urbanised coast etc RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 16 1 6 The case South West Sulawesi In order to demonstrate the capabilities of RAMCO in addressing Coastal Zone Management problems a case has been implemented It concerns a coastal zone in South West Sulawesi Indonesia centred around the city of Ujung Pandang This region suffers of a number of typical problems which can be addressed by means of RAMCO A short description of the problems 15 given here This section is based on J L de Kok and Wind H G 1996 Towards a Methodology for Sustainable Coastal Zone Management A Case Study for South West Sulawesi Twente University the Netherlands and J L Kok and Wind H G 1999 Methodology for Sustainable Coastal Zone Management in the Tropics The Integrative Research Twente University the Netherlands For more ample information on the case study we refer to the original publications 1 Urban growth The total population size in the study area outnumbered 2 million people in 1994 half of which is living in Ujung Pandang the main city in the region The annual population growth of this city in the period 1984 1990 was 4 7 Major projects are ongoing and planned t
91. s simulation language features a number of additional primitives n Connectors through which MBB s obtain data from other MBB s Out Connectors through which MBB s send out their output for use in other MBB s Connections that link the MBB s Dialogs through which the MBB s communicate with the user and Documentation pages containing the technical specifications of the MBB s Libraries are repositories of MBB s The entire definition of the MBB its code its graphical representation its dialog its connectors are stored in the Library When a MBB is included in a model the block itself is not copied to the model rather a reference to the block in the library is made SuperMBB s group a number of interrelated and linked MBB s that form a logical entity They are introduced to keep the representation of the model structured and clear Every MBB has one Dialog associated with it Dialogs are used to enter MBB specific information such as the parameter values and the initial values of the state variables of the model While the simulation 15 running dialogs return the updated values of output variables to the user Entering data in dialogs 1s done in a manner which will support and protect the user to an extent because each edit box in a dialog window knows what type of data it should get from the user a single number a set of numbers or a table 1 e time series For each type the appropriate editor is opened when the use
92. scale dynamics window is shown as a 3D diagram When you select the 3D settings command you will get a dialog box that allows you to specify the angle of rotation the perspective and the vertical exaggeration of the diagram Sho w Show elevation 3D settings RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 44 4 4 Maps Menu Use the Maps menu to select the different maps and their respective editor Elevation that are being used in the micro scale model The Landuse Elevation Network Network Suitability maps Marine park Coral maps and Wave height will Suitability maps each open in their own mapping window and with their own editors The Marine park Regions and USLE maps are input to RamCo models but can not be edited Coral maps The Potential maps and Suspended sediment maps model outputs and Wave height can not be edited Regions USLE maps The editors will become active as soon as the grid will be shown on top ofthe maps In order to see the grid and to invoke the editors it might Patential maps be necessary to Zoom in and enlarge the Suspended sediment 4 4 1 Landuse Command Use the Landuse command to select the land use map and its editor in the Landuse window With the Landuse editor it 1s possible to change the land use map as cells can be given a different landuse Change landuse When the landuse map 15 selected the Ed
93. ses Existing models dealing with physical ecological and socio economic aspects of coastal zones have been reviewed and adapted in view of their integration into a multi scale multi temporal dynamic modelling framework This activity requires to pay attention to the scientific practical and technical aspects of model integration Engelen et al 1999 But despite the fact that the terms integral model and integrated model are used all over the literature and despite the fact that the use of integrated models 1s strongly advocated in disciplines such as Integrated Assessment see for example Gough et al 1998 very few recipes or procedures for model integration are available from the literature Model integration seems more an art than a science at this moment Scientific integration we believe 1s about what can and what cannot be integrated from a scientific point of view It involves constraints on the type of models for example qualitative vs quantitative dynamic vs static etc on the temporal dynamics and time scales on the spatial dynamics and spatial resolutions on the details that matter and on rigorous methods for aggregation and simplification Practical integration deals with the end use and the end user of the model It seeks an answer to the questions what 1s useful to be integrated with a particular end use in mind and what are the needs expectations and constraints of the end user It is the experien
94. ses are defined in the decision making process Janssen 1992 the identification phase the development phase and the selection phase From the fields of psychology and economics the idea 1s adopted that decision making is a normative process given a certain definition of optimality decision rules are developed that result in an optimal solution for a stated problem Coastal Zone Management problems are rarely posed in terms of a single goal rather as sets of different simultaneous often contradicting goals that should be met when and where possible This involves satisfying rather than optimising as there is not a unique or optimal answer to the problems raised Hence for the purpose of strategic management in highly dynamic complex systems such as coastal zones adequate techniques are required that support and stimulate the decision maker in recognising actual problems and anticipating future ones and that permit him to formulate and test possible solutions to assure a safe future for the system For such exercises and despite the fact that they are not typically used in DSS simulation models are effective means Boersma 1989 because RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 6 they permit to represent complex situations that are beyond the reach of the operations research and analytical methods typically used in DSS they permit an intuitive plastic representation of reality thus providin
95. splay zoom out Decrease the size of the map on the display advance the simulation with one simulation step as set with the Steps command advance the simulation till the next pause 1s reached as set with the Pauses command Step stop the simulation reset the simulation State variables and maps take their initial values parameters keep their actual values RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 22 Use this Button print the Micro scale dynamics window access the context sensitive help cursor The next click action on a 3 command will invoke the context sensitive help on this command Next to this set of buttons the Tool bar also displays the simulation clock Each time step the clock is updated The left most figure indicates the years simulated range year 0 till year 25 while the right most figure 1s the month within the year range month 1 till month 12 The Tool bar command in the View Menu allows to display or hide the Tool bar in the RAMCO Application window 2 5 5 The Status bar The Status bar is displayed at the bottom of the Application window This zone provides information to the user on his actions while he is working with the application The left area of the status bar describes actions of menu items as you use the mouse or arrow keys to navigate through menus This area similarly shows messages describing the actions of toolbar buttons when pressed The right area
96. ter treatment dialog box Decide to install a waste water treatment plant for the treatment of urban household waste waters by clicking the 2 00 10 check box From now on the policy will be in effect e Next decide on your treatment mm plant building programme by 00 lt amp lt 25 00 entering the capacity available 26 data points with the graph editor of the Total purification capacity edit E IN YEARS field Do not change the figure in the Investment per capacity edit field The latter has been set to the correct value for SW Sulawesi Edit graph e Enter data in the graph editor that represent a realistic building programme Most likely the resulting graph should have a logistic form a slow start a rapidly increasing capacity once the programme has been going for a number of years and finally a slow end after the facility has been completed The final capacity of your treatment plant should be about 0 14 million cubic Meters since this represents the standard size of such a facility e Run the simulation and check the values of Total BOD load as well as the Score at date in the Ecosystem vitality dialog box Examine also the graph of the BOD load What has been the effect of the treatment facility on the quality of urban waste water e Now change your capacity curve and Reset and Run the simulation till you get an investment level that just keeps BOD loads at a more or less constant level as the population grows
97. that 1s consulted the process 1s subdivided in more or less phases or steps and different names are given to each phase Some agreement seems to exist on the following three major phases and their contents e the identification phase the purpose of this phase 1s to better discern the real problem which requires a decision to be taken This 1s an analytical phase during which the real origin of a problem is the topic of research before suggestions to solve the problem are made e the development phase this 1s the phase during which a more or less large number of alternative solutions for the problems are developed e the selection phase 1s finally the phase during which the least unfavorable solution amoung all alternative solutions 1s searched for and selected Although we have mentioned the three phases in a sequential order it should be stated clearly that decision making is very often a cyclical process during which some if not all of the phases are run through a number of times The purpose of these cycles is clearly 1 to get an in depth understanding of the real problems 2 to generate more and better solutions and 3 to decide upon an intervention or a combination of interventions that will solve the problem at least in part Full fletched Decision Support Systems DSS will support the decision maker in each of the three phases mentioned However many so called Decision Support Systems will focuss on one or two of the ph
98. the program It also describes the main features of the graphical user interface 2 1 What is included in this demo package The RAMCO demo package consists of this printed document and two 1 44 Mb diskettes labelled RAMCO disk 1 2 and RAMCO disk 2 2 On RAMCO disk 1 2 you will find a series of compressed files and 1 executable Setup EXE that 15 used to install RAMCO 2 2 Installing RAMCo Hard and Software Requirements RAMCO runs on personal computers equipped with an Intel 80486 or Pentium processor To use RAMCO your computer should have the following hardware components e Atleast 16 Mb of RAM 32Mb recommended e A hard disk with at least 4 Mb free for RAMCO only e SVGA video card and screen recommended resolution 1024 768 pixels 16 colours size 17 inch or more To run the application and the exercises which we describe and provide the files for on the demo diskettes you should have the following software packages installed on your computer e Microsoft Windows 95 98 NT e Microsoft Excel version 6 0 or later optional e IDRISI for Windows version 1 0 or later optional Contrary to the older versions of RAMCO it 15 no longer possible to run this version 2 0 under Windows 3 x 2 3 Installing RamCo Installation procedure The following is a description of the step by step installation of the RAMCO The installation uninstallation of RAMCO follows the standard for Windows 95 98 NT If you h
99. the Micro scale and Macro scale model to change two dimensional relations time series distance decay functions etc It has two main parts to the left a graphical representation of the two dimensional relation and to the right a list box with the co ordinate pairs defining the relation The relation can be edited in each of the two parts 0 00 1 00 00 lt lt 2400 25 data points TIME IN YEARS 1 The easiest way to enter data is via direct manipulation of the graph Move the cursor to the abscissa position for which you want to enter a new ordinate value The pointer will change to a pen symbol indicating that it is positioned correctly on top of RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 33 MP 92 a vertical grid line for which it will accept an ordinate value Move the pointer to the vertical position equal to the ordinate value which you want to enter Then click the left mouse button to enter the new ordinate of the point on the graph 2 The second manner of editing is useful if you have to enter exact numbers rather than trends or approximate numbers It consists in clicking in the list box the co ordinate pair that you want to change Then a dialog box will open in which you can enter the new ordinate value The changes made in one part of the graph editor are immediately visible in the other part The number of values to be entered as well as the range is displayed A Dialog editor
100. the attention of Inge Uljee or Guy Engelen P O Box 463 6200 AL Maastricht The Netherlands Tel 31 43 388 33 22 Fax 31 43 325 31 55 E mail info riks nl RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 24 3 Running SW Sulawesi Simulations This chapter describes how to run simulations with RAMCO No details will be given on the model for South West Sulawesi which comes with this demo version of the RAMCO Decision Support environment For details about the model we refer to Methodology for Sustainable Coastal Zone Management in the Tropics by Jean Luc de Kok and Herman G Wind Department of Civil Engineering Technology amp Management Twente University Enschede The Netherlands 1999 Also the on line model documentation contains a lot of detailed information about the model see section 2 1 2 Dialog boxes In the previous chapter we explained how to install and run RAMCO We assume from now on that you have read this information that you have knowledge of the different technical terms introduced and that you have successfully installed RamCo on your computer 3 1 Running a simulation Start Click the Start button in the Windows 95 98 NT Task bar and point the cursor to Programs group Move through the cascading menu into the RamCo group and open RAMCO by clicking the RAMCO icon If the software has been installed successfully the Application window will open and the About information window will be displayed e Rea
101. to access and use data and analytic models Najdawi and Stylianou 1993 RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 5 Access to models and data 1s provided by means of the user interface UI which 15 in the state of the art systems at least of a graphical nature GUI and is to hide the technical software complications of the information system from the end user The data required to correctly and formally define analyse and possibly solve the decision problem are stored in the database management system DBMS of the DSS For decision making problems with an explicit geographical nature such as Coastal Zone Management a more versatile solution is to have a GIS take care of data management GIS have additional analytical and decision support features that potentially can enhance the capabilities of the DSS Finally the analytic models are stored in the model base management system MBMS of the DSS Typically decision models statistical and operations research methods as well as tools to portray compare and evaluate different decision alternatives are part of it Even more essential in the model base are the domain specific models capable of grasping the complexities of the system and the problems under study the instruments in the model base are of a formal nature hence exclude decision making based on common sense hear say or intuition solely Good formal decision support
102. uns one of the first successful component technologies was the Dynamic Link Library DLL a file with executable code that 1s easy to distribute and re use The main drawback of the DLL is the lack of structure which prevents an application from verifying whether it uses the DLL in the correct way Compared to DLL s VBX s have more internal structure They are easy to develop in Visual Basic and were mostly used to build small supporting graphical applications called controls and abbreviated as X in Visual Basic X Their main drawback is the inherent 16 bit technology on which they are based A heavyweight 32 bit version of VBX is OCX but the latter software components are notoriously difficult to develop ActiveX Rogerson 1997 is the latest software component technology developed by Microsoft It concerns a light version of OCX It was mainly the need to create small interactive web pages on machines running Microsoft Windows that led to RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 10 the development of ActiveX because small active controls were needed as part of a web page Hence each interactive control became an ActiveX software component ActiveX 1s supported very well by the Microsoft Development Studio toolkit which enables to build ActiveX components in C Visual Basic or Fortran within minutes In the future RAMCO will use more extensively the ActiveX technology In order to incorporate existing models in RA
103. use function dies agriculture Sune uraan tourism industry mangrove culture g Etre jesidentier residen y g Factor Zonin f P 9 ator Rating per land use function regulations type nee agriculture rara urban tourism industry mangrove culture 9 culture residential residential y 9 industrial tourism residential Rating per land use function eem coast type rice schrimp rural urban 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Factor weights Factor weights Weight per land use function dio agriculture Sen ure orban tourism industry mangrove culture culture _ residential residential y 9 3 3 Distance to waterway 2 2 Distance to port 1 1 elevation 1 1 Zoning Regulation 2 2 RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 72
104. use tabs of the simulation When Pauses is selected a dialog box will open requesting the user to enter the time interval in years for which he wants the simulation to halt 4 6 7 Random Command Use the Random command to run the simulation in stochastic mode When Random Is selected a dialog box will open requesting the user to set a value for the alpha parameter as well as the seed value for the random generator 4 6 8 Steps Command Use the Steps command to set the step size When Steps is selected a dialog box will open requesting the user to select 1 month or year 12 months as the step size Every time the Step command from the Simulation menu is selected or the Step button from the Tool bar is pushed the simulation 15 advanced by this amount of months 1 iteration 1 month RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 51 4 75 Options Menu Options Grid Font Link ta Excel Use the Options Menu to personalise your workspace Log Uzer b Tool bar w Status bar 4 7 1 Grid Command Use the Grid command to draw a major grid on the maps When Grid is selected from the Options menu a dialog box will open The user 15 requested to switch on or off the Major grid check box Next he 1s to enter the size of the grid expressed in number of cells Finally he can offset the origin of the grid by a certain amount of cells for example
105. utton next to a reading and entering it in larger contiguous areas of the map The Fill command will change the values of all the adjacent cells that have the same colour as the one that is clicked All these adjacent cells will get the value that 15 selected from the legend This command will change the pointer into a bucket It is identical to selecting the Bucket icon from the Tool bar 4 2 3 Precision Command Use the Precision command to enter detailed information on a cell by cell basis When a cell 15 clicked a dialog box will open which allows you to enter the exact value This command is identical to selecting the Ruler icon from the Tool bar RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 42 4 3 Go to oom in oom aut Show r gions Show network Show elevation getting View Menu Use the View menu to change the manner in which the different maps of the Micro scale model are displayed The first three commands on the View menu are standard but for each type of map one or more commands will be added to specify views These will be explained in more detail in section 3 4 Maps menu 4 3 1 Goto Command Use the Go to command to move the cursor to a specific location on the map Selecting this command from the View menu will open a dialog box requesting to enter the co ordinates of the desired location 4 3 2 Zoom in Command Use the Zoom in command to increase the size o
106. we have not changed parameter values the latter 1s of no importance now but it will be an important issue once you will be changing parameter settings while running and testing different Scenarios and Policy options with the system The Micro scale dynamics and Macro scale dynamics windows can not be closed by the user the Close window icon in the Title bar of both windows is greyed out The user can only minimize or maximize their size by clicking the respective icons in the Title bar The results of the micro scale models is always shown by means of the map in the Micro scale dynamics window You can personalize the Micro scale map by means of the command in the View and Options menu It is possible to add overlay information to it such as the road system and the boundaries of the administrative regions If the region boundaries are drawn it 1s possible to pick up information per region from the map by clicking the left mouse button in the region of your choice An Information window will show an overview of the land use within the region While the simulation is running this overview is updated dynamically thus permitting to get an impression of the changes affecting the region RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 34 Food supply Me x The output of the macro scale models 1s not visible unless the user has opened the parts of the model that Fraction of the population whose consumption ts he wants to consult As an example we
107. which it is intended This can only result from a thorough understanding of the network of processes in which the policy maker intervenes Policy makers face the difficult task of interfering in processes that are very complex in nature because of their interconnection and interrelation In order to help the policy maker see through this complexity RAMCO offers him a system model incorporating as much as possible of the essential linked processes and representing reality as faithfully as possible This is a fundamental scientific approach in which learning about the behaviour and dynamics of the system rather than finding a specific solution 15 the most important incentive for the development of models and Decision Support Systems Thus it is important to carefully represent these sections of reality as faithfully as possible The knowledge and the model outline determine the nature and quality of the outcome of RAMCO Four aspects 1n particular are prominent 1 Policy makers intervene in complete systems Although they are supposed to intervene in systems with a view to their particular speciality or policy domain they automatically intervene in other linked processes and may consequently cause unwanted side effects in the entire system Conversely problems that occur in particular parts of the system may originate from other parts of the system This understanding but also a better assessment of advisable interventions can only be
108. y RAMCO RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 40 4 1 10 List of Recent File 1 2 3 4 RAMCO keeps track of the 4 most recent files opened by the program It will display those in the File menu If you select one of the 4 files it will be opened 4 1 11 Exit Command Use the Exit command to quit RAMCO and return to Windows If you have made changes to simulation files since the last time that you saved the simulation a dialog box appears asking whether you want to save the simulation file before exiting RAMCO RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 41 4 2 Edit Menu Edit Use the commands on the Edit menu to edit the maps of the micro scale models The En first three commands on the Edit menu are standard but for each type of map one or more commands will be added to permit specific edit operations These will be recor explained in more detail in section 3 4 Maps menu Be careful RamCo is not equipped with a so called Undo command Hence all corrections made are definite 4 2 1 Pen Command Use the Pen command to pick a value from the legend of the map by clicking the radio button next to a reading and entering it in the map by clicking the cell of your choice This command will change the pointer into a pen It is identical to selecting the Pen icon from the Tool bar 4 2 2 Fill Command Use the Fill command to pick a value from the legend of the map by clicking the radio b
109. y means of the Model Building Blocks which he selects from a MBB Library To that end he will need to have a good knowledge of the processes in coastal zones and of the state of the art scientific knowledge about how to represent them formally He will have to be familiar with the Model editor of the RAMCO simulation environment The analyst will possibly personalise dialogs as well as Documentation pages He will calibrate the models which he builds and will define the ranges of parameters and variables as well as the initial conditions and the default values He is sufficiently familiar with RAMCO the IDRISI GIS system and MS Excel to prepare import and export map information and possibly to customise the output of the system The Analyst and the Modeller have access to all the facilities offered by RAMCO Thus they can overrule the parameter settings and ranges of all kinds RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 15 The Policy maker is the final user of the system He will work with the fully prepared and calibrated version of an integral model coupled as it might be with the GIS Microsoft Excel or the ANALYSE program He will have the possibility to change parameter and variable settings within the save ranges set by the Modeller and or the Analyst He will have full access to the different views of the model to verify values of intermediate and state variables but he will work mostly with the views Scenarios Policy Options and
110. y that the dialogs are all grouped on one side and the map s on the other side of the RamCo User Guide Version 2 0 June 1999 Page 35 screen This will permit to see simultaneously the macro and microscopic effects of the simulation 3 4 Saving simulation results Working with Decision Support Systems 15 to a large extent an iterative process the decision maker is exploring different combinations of policy alternatives to learn interactively which interventions are likely to satisfy the policy criteria These explorative exercises require a capacity to store simulation results in an efficient manner The Save simulation command from RAMCO s File menu allows the user to store simulation results in more or less sophisticated manners More in particular it allows the user to efficiently manage the different kinds of files that constitute a single simulation Indeed a simulation requires not just one but 10 to 20 data files hence saving a large number of simulation runs will require a large storage space on your hard disk s Save As Save Ir J Demo Sulawesi sim File name New Save as type Simulation sim Cancel When the user selects Save Simulation from the File menu the Save dialog box will Open requesting the user to enter the name of the file If the name of the current simulation file is entered then it will be overwritten and the original values will be lost Ov

Integral Assessment Module for Coastal Zone Management

Contents

Download Pdf Manuals

Related Search

Related Contents