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GloTraM User Guide - Low Carbon Shipping

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1. GloTraM TB9 user guide WP1 UCL Tristan Smith Tristan smith Oucl ac uk April 2012 Contents Contes ai A A etd dee eee are 2 EXECULVO Summary eito ret reoni abs 3 Low Carbon Shipping A Systems ApproaCh ococconnccnnnnnnonononnconnnonnncnnncnoncnnnncnan ccoo ccoo 4 Glo TraM Pre SrOCESSOP enn sa geatan svaeesscaece AE E T a 6 Mmp tda ta A A 6 Setting up and running the preprocesSOT cooooococconcccnoncncnnncnononcnononononnncconnnccnnnnccnnnncnnns 8 Adjusting values for the preprocessor Input data ooocnnccnnnconocncooncnoncnnnnnnnn ccoo nono ncnnnno 9 ROOT A ce iN Ta 9 Start end and Mestres dando scans 9 Trade Scenaro al e alles dd pees ele di oe 10 Operational CO dd 10 Ii A a deat e aia aed eee oo eae idle 10 Size TAN 6S 5555 sida Error Bookmark not defined o vecesedadacepeastiansd cava R A E ARRS E A AEA 10 Gl TrM mna 2 Bo ges beeen a a R a E O E a 11 put data YES a 11 Setting up and running GloTraM oooonocccnncccccononcnonononnnonononononnnonononononnncnnn nc cnn nccnnnnnss 12 Pads 14 PREC ALON Scenario ene e E E E hia Bhan a cha ci aR ii Co 14 Economic Scenario at ands Sees 15 Fl et Evolution SEAT a 15 NN 17 C mputation ime s neia a e e a 18 Inspecting GloTraM output data id A ov Aaa 19 Executive Summary This user guide explains the basic elements of the Glo TraM 2 model and offers step by step instructions for how to install and operate it There are two aspects to Glo TraM 2 the pre processor and
2. CI diesel 2 Diesel electric 3 SI LNG 4 FC hydrogen 5 nuclear
3. International shipping a voyage of a ship from one country to another is inherently difficult to apportion nationally Bottom up methods which generate or utilise details of ship movements need a framework to enable consistent application across all regions to ensure fairness It is important that such a framework should avoid double counting apportioning any emission to more than one nation region One particular challenge to apportionment is how should emissions associated with a ballast voyage be allocated Figure 11 shows four discrete types of voyage associated with international shipping and two different approaches to apportionment all inbound voyages CCC inbound loaded and outbound ballast LCS LA E I LCS l i i out bound loaded l out bound ballast i l l l l l i l AE O AS SSS 1 l I ry l l In bound ballast l In bound loaded l l l l I ry I i ry A ee a li CCC Figure 4 International shipping voyages associated with a country e g UK GloTraM outputs data in order to enable both the LCS and CCC method to be applied The LCS method calculates the emission as the product of the trade flow imported exported or domestic tonnenm and the operational carbon intensity EEOI CO2 tonnenm of the ship type size imp_te exp_te dom_te The CCC method calculates the emission as the product of the total distance steamed on in bound voyages and the carbon intensity per unit distance steamed of the ship type si
4. CO Areas of particular focus are the possible trajectories of the CO emissions from the shipping industry where these emissions might be apportioned and to whom ship types and stakeholders and what the costs and impacts of substantial emission reduction of the shipping industry might be The period covered by the modelling is 2010 2050 and its scope includes all the major contributor vessel types and trade flows The research work in general is divided into 6 work packages from which outputs are collated to provide inputs into the holistic model GloTraM Global Transport Model Modelling the global shipping system Technologies for low carbon shipping Shipping ports and logistics Shipping economics and life cycle costs Regulation policy and the shipping stakeholder space Operation for low carbon shipping el eae ech ea A conceptualization of the modeling framework that we use for our work on shipping efficiency and emissions can be seen in Figure 1 Each box describes a component within the shipping system The feedbacks and interconnections are complex and only a few are displayed on this diagram for the sake of clarity This conceptualization allows us to break down the shipping system into manageable analysis tasks ensure that the analysis and any algorithms are robust and then connect everything together in order to consider the dynamics of the whole system The project s research approach is multi disciplinary in
5. routing trim optimisations Each option is characterised in terms of its costs initial purchase cost installation cost and through life and performance for a range of different ship types The database also captures how performance and cost scale depending on ship size installed power speed operating MCR etc and whether these relationships are linear or non linear 2 2 Setting up and running Glo TraM 2 This next set of instructions assumes you have already followed the setup instructions for the preprocessor If you have not go back and follow these before attempting this From your root folder e g C GloTraM master model run the file GloTraM_main exe this should launch the user interface for the model Figure 3 lolx GloTraM Model TB9 Input Root ZALCSW P1WP1 working folder Omm read in input database options Preprocessed input data fres _5yr_2015 mat X Regulation scenario m T een I MARPOL SOx and NOx Fuel levy I Ballast water Omm Regulation data regulation xls F m Economic scenario Fuelicarbon price punkerscosts xls gt TCe data lic_dataas TC barrier factor fi bd WC barrier factor fi X Base capital cost inflation lo Discount rate 10 Investment horizon yr X Fleet evolution scenario Main engine fuel options IV Cldiesel Diesel electric Fsitne FcHydrogen Nuclear Main engine fuel options V Ho Mmo f LsHFO LNG I Hydrogen Nuclear Abatement o
6. that it mixes engineering economics and logistics algorithms and data However a quantitative modelling approach can only describe those parts of the shipping system which are numerical in nature As a result much of the supporting work underpinning the assumptions used in the modelling are standalone and in depth qualitative analyses e g into market barriers full cost accounting end to end supply chains regulatory and policy frameworks operation and maintenance procedures etc These are presented and discussed in associated documentation Glo TraM 2 has been developed in Matlab for algorithms and user interfaces Excel for data input and output and a number of different database platforms The purpose of this document is to guide a user in e the origins of any input data e how to setup and use the model and e how to inspect the results The details of the model s theoretical basis derivation of assumptions validation and outputs are presented in other documents Consumption population wealth Fuel Policy Production natural resources manufacturing Price availability Regulation fiscal OTHER MODES E homo energy emission cost Figure 1 Conceptualisation of the shipping system model 1 Glo TraM 2 Pre processor We work with trade operational and fleet data at the highest resolution and level of detail that we can obtain However that level of detail is not always necessary for use in shipping syst
7. the model itself The pre processor summarises the information into a form that the model can read and then the model simulates shipping demand and outputs over a specified time period Data source Data types Summary Key Clarkson s World Fleet 25 characteristics of SS ARENA a AA a Fleet data Register individual ships trade flowsi e tonnes Maritime trade NEA data value distance etc data Pre Processor i ey eres IMO 274 GHG study Ship utilisation days at Operationaldata AlS analysis sea days at port Data source Datatypes Summary Clarkson s Moore Freight prices capex Economic Stephens Drewry costs voyage costs data SOTEM Output R 70 technologies Technology LCS analysis performance amp cost data aa Variables IMO publicdata MARPOL GHG s NO SO Regulation LCS analysis Ballast water etc data Low Carbon Shipping A Systems Approach Is a research project which started in January 2010 It is majority funded by the RCUK energy UK government research funding programme 1 7m over 3 years but also supported financially and in kind by a number of industry partners including Lloyd s Register Rolls Royce Shell and BMT The project is producing a holistic analysis of the global shipping system in order to investigate using data and modelling how shipping might change in response to developments in fuel prices and environmental regulation on emissions of SOx NOx PM
8. Fleet Register e Data the source contains Specifications of the world fleet dimensions machinery cargo capacity and handling etc There are differences in definition and extent between this database and the Lloyds Fairplay data with pros and cons to both e Reason for using this source UCL have research and consultancy licenses for Clarksons data and it is extensively used in the ship owner and operator community due to its authority on which ships are actively trading It also has a relationship with Clarksons Research s other major product the Shipping Intelligence Network Alternative sources Lloyds Fairplay data Comment current issues The register is incomplete Some technical details fuel consumption auxiliary machinery lightship displacement are sparsely populated or may be absent Where these variables are necessary for meaningful modelling and analysis they have been generated using interpolation trends or a third party source discussed in validation documentation REF In total 25 variables are used to characterize each individual ship and the structure allows further technical calculations and variables to be included as required Trade and transport demand data Why this is important Trade is the driver of demand for shipping and an important component of the modelling For in depth understanding of the links between shipping and GDP detail beyond the level of global aggregate trade forecasts is also needed Cu
9. a compilation of various sources in the public domain including IMO and EU policy documents Data this includes GHG regulation as well as other regulation which will impact both the capital costs and efficiency of ships MARPOL SO NO Ballast Water etc Economic data Why this is important to understand the economic drivers of the shipping industry Current source an aggregate of a variety of sources from the Clarkson s Shipping Intelligence Network research and consultancy licenses Moore Stephens and Drewry Data this includes freight prices time charter and voyage charter prices sunk costs operating costs new build costs maintenance costs and voyage costs different fuels and carbon prices We hold historical data for a number of different shipping markets and also produce forecasts of activity to apply to the models when the economic parameters are not already part of it Abatement option data Why this is important to understand what will increase shipping s efficiency and reduce its emissions Current source a mixture of sources including IMO data and LCS analysis Specific analysis by LCS includes research on naval architecture and marine engineering an 800k investment as well as quantifying the impact on ships e g loss of dwt change in hull parameters stability etc Data this includes Around 70 abatement options from technical e g waste heat recovery air lubrication to operational e g weather
10. a name test_2 fi run preprocessor Ms running finished Unvalidated preprocessor for demonstration at Low Carbon Shipping TB8 do not distribute preprocessor or its results without permission from Tristan Smith tristan smith ucl ac uk Figure 2 The user interface for pre processing the model data e In the Root text box enter the name of new root directory that you have set up e g C GloTraM e Click the button read in input database options This should reference the files from the folder C GloTraM Master model data and place the names of these into the drop down menus If successful the text in the drop down menus will change from Pop up Menu to the names of the databases e To test try setting up the pre processor with the following variables O Start year 2010 End year 2015 Time step 5 Trade scenario NEA Operational scenario op_data xls Fleet wetbulk Size ranges aggsizes_ccc O Output data name test_1 OO0O0000 Click the button run preprocessor If the preprocessor starts the dialogue below the run preprocessor button will say running The command window will also show some warnings but don t worry as these don t mean that the preprocessor has crashed In terms of time to run the pre processor should take 30 seconds to a minute When the process is successful the dialogue box will say finished otherwise an error readout will appear in th
11. dwt usage and ratio of ballast to laden voyage time whereas ship speed is endogenised in the modelling and analysis or controlled explicitly e It is possible to substitute your own assumptions about operational data by changing any values and saving these in a new spreadsheet 1 2 Setting up and running the pre processor e Run the file MCRInstaller exe from the GloTraM TB9 distribution folder and follow the instructions for installation If there are any problems see the readme file This installs the Matlab run time environment on your computer and so you need administrator installation privileges e Setup a new root directory on your computer e g C GloTraM e Copy the folder master model from GloTraM TB9 distribution to the new root folder e g to produce C GloTraM master model e Open master model to find preprocessor exe and the directory C GloTraM master model data e Run preprocessor exe If it runs successfully the preprocessor user interface will come up Figure 2 This may take a few seconds so be patient E preprocess Hel x GloTraM Preprocessor v 1 1 Root CAGloTraM CE read in input database options J 2 Start year 2010 End year 2015 X Time step years 1 X 3 Trade scenario yea o TV a Operational scenario op_data_2ndGH y 5 Fleet choose 1 container ships _ drybulk ships v wetbulk ships __ gasbulk ships size ranges aggsizes_CCC xils v 6 output dat
12. e command window e If you get an error read out please email me Tristan Smith the details and I will do my best to diagnose and remedy 1 3 Adjusting variables inputs for the pre processor a Root This is the location where the root directory is stored the folder which contains the folder master model if you followed the directions above it should be C GloTraM b Start end and time step The start year end year and time step determine the length and resolution of the simulation The start year must be a year for which there is corresponding fleet and trade data At present this is only 2010 The end year can be any year after the start year If start year and end year are the same the model will run for a single time step All calculations are performed on annualised average figures so the time step must be an integer The global fleet is disaggregated by age and the time step determines not only the time period between calculations but also the age range of each age disaggregation For example if the time step is 5 years the model will run one set of calculations for every 5 year period 2010 2015 2020 using average characteristics of the fleet across the time step e g 0 5 year old ships 5 10 year old ships 10 15 year old ships etc Computational time is therefore highly sensitive to time step c Trade Scenario The trade scenario describes the macro economic assumptions behind the trade data and the
13. em modelling and used in its raw form can detract from accuracy of results and make the model computationally expensive to run We have therefore developed a pre processor which collects characteristics for a fleet of ships groups countries into trade regions and groups commodities An example of the former is ships of a certain type size and age e g crude tankers in size range 280 000 320 000 tonnes built between 1995 and 2000 An example of the latter is all liquid bulk commodities traded between Europe and North America The pre processor is run from a user interface and excel spreadsheets These spreadsheets contain detailed information on size and type ranges It is currently being modified so that different commodity categories can be collated in different ways and matched to different aggregations of ship types e g wetbulk may be selected to either include or not include crude products and other tankers 1 1 Input data Data source Datatypes Summary Clarkson s World Fleet 25 characteristics of Register individual ships Meeteet trade flows i e tonnes Maritime trade Pre Processor NEA data g dat value distance etc ata IMO 274 GHG study Ship utilisation days at AlS analysis sea days at port Operationaldata Fleet data e Why this is important Detailed information of ship characteristics are necessary for technical calculations and for meaningful modelling and analysis e Current source Clarksons World
14. exogenous inputs like regulation trade and fuel price scenarios This enables for the first time the consequence of a range of foreseeable scenarios to be established in terms of their impacts on shipping s costs and emissions The model can be run at a range of levels of detail disaggregation e g High levels of detail and high levels of aggregation Useful for policy makers to understand the impacts of carbon pricing or other policy measures on overall carbon emissions and costs e g freight rates and the price of new ships Low levels of detail and high levels of disaggregation i e to the level of individual ships Useful for industry stakeholders to find out their optimum investment and operational choices in times of uncertain fuel prices and rapidly changing regulation 2 1 Input data Data source Data types Summary Economic data mat file from Pre Processor Clarkson s Moore Freight prices capex Stephens Drewry costs voyage costs Technology data 70 technologies LCS analysis f amp cost performance amp cos ETEN Model Regulation IMO public data MARPOL GHG s NO SO A ata LCS analysis Ballast water etc Regulation data e Why this is important The shipping industry operates under a backdrop of regulation from national to regional as well as international through the IMO It is important to incorporate this backdrop into the modelling and analysis e Current source
15. fore if you do not want the simulation run to deviate from operation at anything other than a ship s design speed set min max both to 75 If you want to allow for the possibility of slow steaming which will be determined as a function of the freight rate fuel price then provide a lower value than 75 Cruise speed refers to the average speed that the ship travels at when not manoeuvring etc Fleet size category growth determines how the transport demand for new ships is distributed across the ship size category range For example what portion of the newbuilds in any one year are VLCCs Suezmax Aframax Seaway or Handy At the moment there are only two choices Optimise determines what size to build according to the size range which is calculated to be the most cost effective means of satisfying the transport demand This will normally increase the supply of larger ships relative to smaller ships Constant applies the existing 2010 fleet size proportions in every year to maintain a constant ratio of transport supply between different ship size categories It is recommended that for now the constant option is selected as there are constraints that can affect the optimal ship size which are not included in the algorithm at present Include retrofit and operational change allows the user to choose whether to include exclude revision of the existing fleet If the box is not checked then only newbuilds will be revised fuel swi
16. he model is sensitive to investment horizon A longer investment horizon will increase the run time The model is sensitive to the number of main machinery and fuel options used A larger number of options will increase the run time The model is sensitive to the number of abatement options considered fewer options faster run time To consider a smaller subset or remove any that do not ever appear economically viable then set the use variable to 0 The model is highly sensitive to the design and operating speed range settings Increasing the range significantly increases the run time 4 Inspecting GloTraM output data For now all output is presented in Microsoft Excel format An individual run s output file can be found in root master model data outputs preprocessed input data The run identifier specified in the model user interface is the name given to the individual output Excel files in this folder A larger number of output variables are available for display but for now the following are passed out of the matlab model to Excel each with individual worksheets Trade data includes the inbound outbound and domestic trade mass flows for each of the regions used in the model Port call includes the modelled estimates of the number of port calls for each of the ship size categories associated with the trade flow data inbound outbound and domestic Emissions data includes the estimates of emissions for each of t
17. he regions modelled This includes the emissions calculated according to transport demand imp_te exp_te and dom_te and shipping activity in_load out_load dom_load dom_bal The former allocates the loaded and ballast journey emissions associated with either the imports consumption or exports production transport demand of a specific region The latter specifies on the basis of shipping activity for the loaded and ballast movement of ships into out of or domestic to the region The total global annual emissions for that ship type and the cumulative annual emissions for that ship type are included at the bottom of the table Abatement options specifies whether a specific abatement option is taken up by a given ship size category in a given year If the value is zero it is not taken up if a positive integer it indicates the take up prioritisation e g 1 most cost effective option New ships specifies the technical and performance parameters of newbuild ships in a given year Agg fleet specifies the average characteristics for ships in a given size range in a given year across the ships of all ages in that size category Variable region numbering used for the trade port call and emissions data 1 Africa 2 Australasia 3 Central America and Caribbean 4 Europe 5 Indian Subcontinent 6 Middle Eastern Gulf Red sea 7 North America 8 North East Asia 9 South America 10 South East Asia 11 UK Emissions variables
18. heets will be issued over time as research into specific options in WP2 is completed and can be added to this folder for use in the model However if you do not agree with the inclusion of some technologies or want to test what happens if they are left out of consideration the use column can be specified 1 include O ignore Speed is an important variable both as a design parameter and an operational parameter Whilst GloTram includes algorithms to calculate the optimum speed in practice the design and operating speed may be constrained by parameters that are outside the scope of the optimisation As a result the user has two means to constrain the range of design and operational speeds that will be considered by the model Design speed range allows the user to set the upper and lower bound vales according to a change relative to the baseline ship s design speed a newbuild in 2010 E g if the design speed is 15knots and 10 is specified in the user interface the model will calculate the optimum speed for newbuilds in a given year taking into account economic and regulation data specifications from between the range 13 5kts to 16 5kts Cruise speed rating range allows the user to set the upper and lower bound of the MCR that a main engine is run at Design speed is specified at 75 MCR 75 of the maximum power output of the main engine the min and max values are similarly set relative to maximum power output There
19. ith o HFO and MDO must include both o Option of LSHFO Diesel electric with o HFO o MDO o LSHFO SI Spark Ignition LNG with o LNG FC Hydrogen with o Hydrogen a reformed LNG FC option will be added shortly Nuclear with o Nuclear Whatever overall combination of machinery fuel options is selected the CI diesel with HFO and MDO must be included because this is what is used in the existing fleet Abatement option data defines the ship impact database filename This database is the overall output to GloTraM from LCS WP2 and includes characterisations of technical and cost impacts for a number of different technology operational abatement energy efficiency options that can be applied to a ship This database worksheet all ships can be found in Root master model data inputs carbon_abate The xls file also contains basic data defining the different main machinery options their costs specific fuel consumption impact on a ship s dwt and compatability with different fuels worksheet main machinery The detailed values in the excel file should not be edited manually because it is produced using a number of algorithms and assumptions which produce data that can be scaled for ships of different size type design speed etc Obtaining the values in the database is a work in progress Many of the values in the database are currently sourced from outside the consortium e g IMO publications New updated spreads
20. n each age category the properties are determined from the mean or the mode of the aggregation Separating the fleet into a greater number of aggregations will increase the definition and specificity of the fleet s properties but will also increase the computational effort required The data describing the minimum and maximum dwt of each size category can be found in root master model data sizes The values can be altered and the spreadsheet saved with a new name to represent a different calculation which it is possible to select in the preprocessor user interface f Output data The output data is produced as a mat file which can be read into the model The file will be given the name entered into the text box so that you can identify a specific preprocessor run in the model interface The data is stored in the root master model data outputs preprocessed 2 GloTraM We have developed a model of the shipping system GloTraM Global Transport Model which represents quantitatively all the components shown in the conceptualization of the shipping system in Figure 1 It is the embodiment of quantitative and qualitative research across all six of the work packages in Low Carbon Shipping A Systems Approach GloTraM models the shipping industry for specified time periods in the future Starting at a baseline year it steps forward one time step at a time evolving the global fleet s technical and economic specification in response to
21. ption data rea v3 xls gt Design speed range diff from existing Min lo hs Max lo E Cruise speed rating range of MCR Min fis Max fs k Fleet size category growth constant e T Include retrofit and operational change of existing ships Output Run erie al O Run model launching 2010 2015 finished This is an unvalidated demonstration version of the model for the Low Carbon Shipping meeting TBS Do not distribute the model or its results without permission from Tristan Smith tristan smith ucl ac uk Figure 3 the user interface for the GloTraM model e Inthe Root textbox enter the same address as you did in the preprocessor user interface e g C GloTraM e Click the button read in input database options which as before should populate the pop up menus If successful the text in these will change from Pop up Menu to the names of databases e Try setting up with the following o Input In preprocessed input data select the file that you ve just created in preprocessor 1 e test_1 o Regulation scenario don t tick any of the options for regulation scenarios and leave regulation data as the default regulation x1s o Economic scenario leave fuel carbon price and TCe data as the defaults bunkercosts xls and tc_data xls leave the TC barrier factor and VC barrier factor both at their defaults i e 1 set Base capital cost inflation
22. refore the transport demand data from which the shipping activity 1s derived For example the trade scenario describes a certain level of population and GDP growth in each of the world s countries as well as resource availability and manufacturing capacity and from this the commodities traded between a pair of countries have been calculated The trade scenario describes aggregations of 100 commodities traded between all of the world s countries in terms of their annualised mass flows and annualised values There is only one trade scenario supplied with the model at present but the ability to choose from a greater number will be available shortly d Operational Scenario Operational specifications describe how the fleet is being used The data can be found in spreadsheets in the location root master model data op_data The data e g number of days active per year days at port per nautical mile at sea number of ballast days per loaded days have been compiled from a variety of sources for each ship type s ships of a specific representative size repdwt The values can be altered and the spreadsheet saved with a new name to represent different scenarios which it is possible to select in the preprocessor user interface e Fleet selection and size ranges In GloTraM the fleet is modelled as aggregations of different ship types and sizes Whilst distinctions are made within each type and size aggregation for different ship ages withi
23. rrent source NEA database of world trade flows Data the source contains Over 200 000 datapoints per year 100 commodity categories all country country or lower level maritime trade flows of imports and exports The data is both historical using UNCTAD comtrade and Eurotat as the main sources as well as forecast into the future 2050 Reason for choosing the source NEA s agent based model has already been used extensively on EU transport research and modelling REF UCL Energy has been able to develop their own marine distance calculator which can be used in conjunction with NEA s distance estimates to characterise maritime trade in terms of tonnes value distance and tonnekm Alternative sources Comment current issues Operational data Why this is important Parameters like ship utilisation and days spent at sea and in port are fundamental to the calculation of shipping activity and emissions Current source The IMO second GHG study Data the source contains capacity utilisation for 42 ship types Reasons for using this source This is the most comprehensive estimate in the public domain and is supported by historical AIS analysis and expert opinion Alternative sources Comment current issues These values have been assembled into our own database structure for use in our analysis and modelling Some values have been broken down further using other public domain sources For example capacity utilisation is broken down into
24. sumption of fuel in boilers per year Bw an indicator of what ballast water treatment solution is implemented Eta_p the performance efficiency the reduction in performance due to ageing deterioration relative to a ship on its acceptance sea trial Me_spec the main engine specification Range the estimated range of the ship at design speed Eta_w the average impact on performance efficiency of weather effects Eedi the calculated energy efficiency design index Variable names used for the agg fleet worksheet also include Size the number of active ships Total the total number of ships active and laid up Trans_sup the total transport supply from all active ships in that size category Eeoi the calculated energy efficiency operational index H_load the number of hours spent per year in the loaded condition H_bal the number of hours spent per year in the ballast condition H_port the number of hours spent per year in port or at anchor CO2_year the total CO2 produced annually by the average ship in that fleet CO2_load_nm the CO2 produced for every loaded nautical mile travelled CO2_bal_nm the CO2 produced for every ballast nautical mile travelled CO2_total the total CO2 produced from all the active ships in that size category Fuel indicators values from 1 6 where 1 HFO 2 MDO 3 LSHFO 4 LNG 5 hydrogen 6 nuclear Main engine specification Values from 1 5 where 1
25. t AMaster model data inputs costs There are some additional terms that are also used TC barrier factor this is a factor that represents the effect of market barriers in setting the time charter prices A value of 1 is equivalent to there being a perfect market and zero barriers For now this is the default and only option VC barrier factor similar to the TC factor this represent barriers in the voyage charter market and has been set at the default and only option Base capital cost inflation is the inflation rate as applied to sunk costs such as newbuild prices and the cost of low carbon technology Discount rate is the interest rate used to discount future profits Investment horizon is the time horizon over which the profitability of an intervention change in design speed fuel or adoption of low carbon technology is assessed For now main machinery alternatives are assessed over the life time of the ship however this assumption can be modified manually outside of the user interface d Fleet Evolution Scenario This section defines the operation and technical parameters used in the consideration of how the fleet will evolve The main engine machinery and fuel options need to be selected in harmony and there is nothing from stopping the user from selecting incompatible pairs e g diesel electric with hydrogen fuel so care must be taken The combination options are currently CI Compression Ignition diesel w
26. tching design and operational speed uptake of abatement options and the existing fleet will not be modified in anyway This is simply to allow the model to run faster in the instance that it is being used only for looking at how newbuild ships might change over time e Output This sets the run identifier A unique run identifier can be used to allow multiple runs to be carried out with different input variables but for the same preprocessor input dataset and then the outputs collated and compared 3 Computation time The computation time of GloTraM is a function of the input variables A simple one time step e g 2010 2015 simulation with the most basic parameters will normally take approximately 30 seconds to run on a standard windows laptop However changing input parameters can significantly increase the run time The following choices are of greatest significance Preprocessor choices The run time is linear in total number of time steps taken for the simulation A longer run later end year or smaller time step will increase the run time The time step is also linear in size and age disaggregations Selecting a size range file with more discrete sizes and reducing the time step which increases the number of age categories the fleet is broken down into will increase the run time Model choices The model is not highly sensitive to regulation scenario but including more regulations will slightly increase the run time T
27. to 0 set Discount rate to 10 set Investment horizon to 1 year o Fleet evolution scenario just tick HFO on the fuel options and leave others unticked set Abatement option data to TB9_v3 xls set Design speed range to a min of zero and a max of zero set the Cruise speed rating range to a min of 75 and a max of 75 set the Fleet size category growth to constant do not tick the box include retrofit and operational change for existing fleet o Output enter Run identifier as 1 e Click run model As before if this runs it will say launching 2010 2015 finished e Ifthe finished message displays then the model should have created an output spreadsheet with the results which you can find at C GloTraM master model data outputs test_1 1 xlIs e If you get an error read out please send me Tristan Smith the details of the error and I will do my best to diagnose and remedy a Input Root is the location where the root directory is stored the folder which contains the folder master model if you followed the directions above it should be C GloTraM Any preprocessed input data files should appear for selection from the drop down menu using the filenames that were entered into the output data dialogue box Create and chose different input files depending on what ship type you are interested in modelling and the operational parameters aggregation parameters size category and time parameters yo
28. u want to use in your simulation b Regulation Scenario Check boxes give the user choices of what regulatory instruments to include when carrying out a run The data file describing the different regulations Regulation data e g different stringencies is selected from the drop down menu The files in the drop down menu come from root AMaster model data inputs regulation Inclusion of a carbon price can be done either through selecting the ETS or the Fuel levy at present the impact on shipping economics are identical because the carbon price is determined exogenously using the data in bunkercosts xls In the future the carbon price will be able to be calculated endogenously and limited by a specified cap Whilst the inclusion of MARPOL SOx and NOx regulation and Ballast water as IMO regulation has been decided upon and defined these options are added so that users can compare results to explore sensitivities and to observe the impact of different levels of stringency e g variations in the date at which the global 0 5 sulphur cap is introduced c Economic Scenario The economic scenario describes the exogenous data that are used to determine the ship owner s costs and revenue Input data for the core costs the fuel and carbon price per tonne and the time charter equivalent day rate are selected as input spreadsheets from the drop down menu The files can be manually modified and saved as alternatives and come from roo
29. ze The method calculates the emissions for each region from the four legs identified in Figure 4 and also for a further two domestic legs loaded and ballast in_load out_load in_bal out_bal Variable names used for the new ships worksheet teu the teu capacity dwt the dwt capacity build the build year P_me the maximum power output of the installed main engine P_ae the maximum power output of the installed auxiliary engine Fi_me the fuel indicator see below of the main engine Fi_ae the fuel indicator see below of the auxiliary engine V_des the design speed V_op_load the average speed when loaded V_op_ballast the average speed when in the ballast condition SOx spec an indicator of what SOx treatment is implemented NOx spec an indicator of what NOx treatment is implemented Rate_me_load the average load as of MCR of the main engine when at V_op_load Rate_me_ballast the average load as of MCR of the main engine when at V_op_bal Rate_ae_load the average load as of MCR of the auxiliary engine when at V_op_load Rate_ae_bal the average load as of MCR of the auxiliary engine when at V_op_bal Sfc_me specific fuel consumption of the main engine Sfc_ae specific fuel consumption of the auxiliary engine Loa length overall Beam beam Draught draught Lightship estimated lightship displacement Boiler_year estimated con

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