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1. 10 StormTracker User Guide v3 Selecting and saving personalised regions It is possible to select and save regions of personal interest by using the floating bar at the bottom of the map viewer Save Region Manage Regions First move the map using the direction arrows and zoom scale to the region you want to save Then click on the Save Region button on the floating footer bar The map will grey out and a pop up box will appear requesting that you enter a name for the region and asking you to select whether you would like this as your default location Please type in a name for the Region Also set as default if applicable a Is this the default _ If you would like to save the region as your default click on the checkbox next to Is this the default Then click the Save button The next time you log on to StormTracker the map view will automatically be of this region Please note you can only have one region selected as a default at any one time 11 StormTracker User Guide v3 You can save up to nine regions before you will need to overwrite them Once you have saved regions they can be selected using the drop down menu on the left hand side of the floating footer bar by clicking on the arrow to the right of the drop down box Select Region and selecting from the list of saved regions The map will automatically move to the region you have selected from the drop down menu r ininda Po Select Region Set a
2. About us Terms and conditions Privacy policy Accessibility Contact Us Crown copyright www metoffice gov uk Enter your User Name and Password and click the Log In button to access StormTracker Please note that User Names and Passwords are case sensitive If you have forgotten your user name or password click on the link at the bottom of the log in screen to contact our customer centre lt Met Office StormTracker About StormTracker Current Storms oral Storr Australian Did you know there are advanced versions of this service es In addition to all the features you see here the advanced versions also provide access to the following South West Indian means from the world s leading BINGIZA z ks for up to 15 days 2 weeks ahead ks ahead 5 days 2 weeks an early warning of emerging storm North Indien North Atlantic e To find out about expert forecaster advice to support this service please email the address below North East Pacific To find out more or arrange your subscription email North West Pacific iiracker About ur Termeandeonaitions Privseypoley metoticeogowuk 6 StormTracker User Guide v3 You also won t need to click through the screen above as it will not show when you log into your advanced account When you first log in to StormTracker you will see a screen like this Met Office Latest Weather WE Observed Cloud visible Australian BB Observed Cloud IR Sou
3. Australian Narth West Pacific Hh ds NV Erare Tet hi Tae Ate rem Senne Pty LIK When you select a storm in the left hand panel the name of the storm you have selected and the basin you are viewing will appear above the map Met Office North Atlantic Beta On the right hand side is a floating menu which enables you to pick different layers of current forecast and asset information When you select a storm the checkbox beside Latest Weather gt Observed Track will automatically be switched on See later sections for more information on how the layer picker works 14 StormTracker User Guide v3 Using the layer picker The layer picker contains two menus one for forecast weather and one for latest weather The advanced version has three the two mentioned above plus asset layers To select the forecast weather menu click on the arrow on the right of the top box and select Forecast weather from the dropdown menu Storm Tracks Deterministic Storm Tracks 5 day y Screen tip click on the Met Office logo to drag and reposition the layer picker and other pop up menus in a convenient place 15 StormTracker User Guide v3 The forecast weather layer shows a menu of storm features that can be displayed on the map viewer These are listed in light grey bars The models available for that storm feature will drop down automatically when the storm feature has been clicked on To select and display on the map v
4. Date from Date to radio buttons for Landfall and a drop down box for Category To go back to the forecast and latest weather layers click on the tab labelled Current data at the top of the left hand panel Selecting and searching the historical storm database You can select up to three historical storms from the database to show on the map at any one time Historic storm tracks can be shown alongside any forecast layers that are selected To select a storm click on the row containing it on the list It will be assigned a track colour and its name will appear in the header bar above the map viewer coloured in the track colour Black circles over track points on the storm track indicate the strength of the storm 19 StormTracker User Guide v3 Displaying historical weather Met Office Gogi Maw cata G N kuoga Tecrocopes socerare Connaing POU Machine Tee Aces Pier Seran Piy Lia You can search the database in two ways i Use the filters at the head of each column of the table to sort the results Columns can be sorted on top of each other to enable you to find storms easily based on more than one type of data ii Alternatively you can search the database by filling in some or all of the blank boxes above the database to filter the list Click on the calendar symbol to the right of the Start and End boxes to select dates from the calendar you wish to search between you don t need to enter dates in both boxes t
5. gt oa I Met Office Storm l racker User guide v3 a SS WAA Contenis Introduction 1 2 3 System requirements System requirements and settings Browser plugins Starting and initialising Using StormTracker iF 2 Log in and registration Using the map viewer Zooming and controlling the map Using the side panel Selecting storm basins Selecting and saving personalised regions Displaying forecast weather Named storm selection Using the layer picker Animated layers Information buttons Layer opacity Missing layers Storm track information Displaying latest weather Using the layer picker Observed track information Displaying historical weather Selecting and searching the historical storm database Il StormTracker User Guide v3 AA Come Data provenance and guidance 21 1 Forecast weather 21 Ensemble forecast models 21 a Data sources 21 b Data types 23 c Usual availability times 24 d Guidance on interpretation of ensemble forecasts 25 Deterministic forecast model 26 a Data source 26 b Data type 26 c Usual availability time 26 d Guidance on interpretation of deterministic forecasts 26 2 Latest weather 27 a Data sources 27 b Data types 27 c Usual availability time 28 d Guidance on interpretation of latest weather 28 3 Historic weather 28 a Data source 28 b Data types 28 c Usual availability time 29 d Guidanc
6. that have happened in the not recent past a Data source Historical data for tropical storms is available for the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins from 1851 onwards It is provided from the HURDAT database which is maintained and provided by the U S National Hurricane Centre NHC part of the U S National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA It is updated on an annual basis hence recent storm tracks for instance those in the current season are not available b Data types Name For storms in the HURDAT data base storms from 1851 to 1949 will be unnamed The naming convention began in 1950 Storms can be selected by name where the storm occurred after 1950 28 StormTracker User Guide v3 Categories for historical storms These refer to the highest category strength measured by sustained wind speed and storm surge the storm reached in its lifetime Categories are defined as per the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale and relate to the thresholds for wind speeds and storm surge below Category Wind speed Storm surge Mph km h Ft m 5 gt 156 2250 gt 18 25 5 4 131 155 210 249 13 18 4 0 5 5 3 111 130 178 209 9 12 2 7 3 7 2 96 110 154 177 6 8 1 8 2 4 74 95 119 153 4 5 1 2 1 5 TS Tropical Storm 39 73 63 117 0 3 0 0 9 TD Tropical Depression 0 38 0 62 o 0 Start date month and year The start date for the search Any tropical storm that occurred on or a
7. 5 or above Microsoft Windows Apple Macintosh e Mozilla Firefox version 2 0 or above Microsoft Windows Apple Macintosh 2 Browser plugins This service requires the Adobe Flash Player plugin version 10 or above This plugin can be obtained from www adobe com go getflashplayer 3 Starting and initialising Once registered launch your Internet browser then enter the web address for StormTracker www metoffice gov uk premium stormtracker into the address bar this will launch and present the login page 4 StormTracker User Guide v3 1 Log in and registration Before you use StormTracker you need to register For brand new users https register metoffice gov uk WaveRegistrationClient register do service stormtracker For existing Met Office registered users for other products https register metoffice gov uk WaveProfileManagementClient registerstormtracker do service stormtracker When you first click on the link to StormTracker you will see the registration screen like this Create a StormTracker account First name O Family name a Phone number aaa aaa company ME ddie m uman Password i Confirm password SCS Email di Please note this address is used as part of registration Verification Code Customer survey Please help us improve our services by answering some questions about yourself Please indicate the main reason that you visit the Met Offic
8. 850 hPa level Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres National Hurricane Center Miami Caribbean Sea Gulf of Mexico North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific oceans east of 140 W Japan Meteorological Agency Tokyo Western North Pacific Ocean from Malay peninsula to 180 E Indian Meteorological Department New Delhi Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea The Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu Hawaii North Pacific Ocean 140 180 W M t o France La R union South Indian Ocean from African coast to 90 E Meteorological Service Nadi Fiji South Pacific Ocean east of 160 E and north of 25 S Other tropical cyclone warning centres The Bureau of Meteorology Australia Southern hemisphere 90 160 E MetService Wellington New Zealand South Pacific Ocean east of 160 E and south of 25 S Joint Typhoon Warning Center Pearl Harbor Hawaii West of 180 E Canadian Hurricane Centre Halifax Canada Canadian Atlantic shores 2 Latest weather Latest weather data is data that is fed into StormTracker from observations sources the Met Office collates from around the world It represents what has happened in the recent past and will be overwritten when new data is available a Data sources There are four sources of latest weather information available in StormTracker Label Source Frequency Resolution Cloud IR Global Satellite Latest high resolution Approx 16 km on composite infra red satellite
9. Equator global composite Cloud visible Global Satellite Latest high resolution Approx 16 km on composite visible satellite global Equator composite Sea surface Forecast Ocean Latest global 12 hourly Temperature Assimilation Model observed sea surface FOAM temperature from 5 metre depth Wind speed Synops buoys Latest global wind 1 3 6 hourly N A location of speed and direction depending on reporting station reporting station b Data types See above 27 StormTracker User Guide v3 c Usual availability time Please note times expressed are in Zulu time Z Coordinated Universal Time UTC Greenwich Mean Time GMT Daylight savings or British Summertime are not expressed so you will need to account for this when using StormTracker Availability time Cloud IR 01 00 04 00 07 00 10 00 13 00 16 00 19 00 22 00 Cloud Visible 01 00 04 00 07 00 10 00 13 00 16 00 19 00 22 00 Sea surface temperature 07 00 19 00 Wind speed Recalculates hourly three hourly or six hourly dependent on new observations arriving d Guidance on interpretation of latest weather Latest weather information comes from the Met Office s range of global observation networks including satellites and buoys It provides as complete a picture of the latest weather as possible bearing in mind the spatial resolution of the observation points 3 Historic weather Historical data represents data from storms
10. al Regional Ensemble Prediction System MOGREPS 15 medium range model and the data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA s National Centers for Environmental Prediction NCEP Global Forecast System GFS model Data is provided is a mean of the data from the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System EPS and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA s National Centers for Environmental Prediction NCEP Global Forecast System GFS model Data provided is a mean of three models the data from the Met Office Global Regional Ensemble Prediction System MOGREPS 15 medium range model the data from the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System EPS and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA s National Centers for Environmental Prediction NCEP Global Forecast System GFS model 22 StormTracker User Guide v3 b Data types Ensemble forecast information is provided for Ensemble storm tracks Ensemble mean storm tracks Strike probability Forming storm probability Display Individual ensemble member storm tracks shown i e one track per ensemble member for each single model Multi model combinations not available One ensemble mean track shown for each model and multi model combination One strike probability plume shown for each model and multi model combin
11. an from African coast to 90 E Meteorological Service Nadi Fiji South Pacific Ocean east of 160 E and north of 25 S Other tropical cyclone warning centres The Bureau of Meteorology Australia Southern hemisphere 90 160 E MetService Wellington New Zealand South Pacific Ocean east of 160 E and south of 25 S Joint Typhoon Warning Center Pearl Harbor Hawaii West of 180 E Canadian Hurricane Centre Halifax Canada Canadian Atlantic shores Dynamical modelling has shown excellent results for forecasting a wide range of weather systems but skill in identifying and predicting smaller scale features including tropical storms is less than for larger scale weather patterns such as extra tropical depressions mainly due to spatial resolution limitations of the models In particular the global ensemble systems the Met Office uses for StormTracker cannot resolve the fine scale detail within tropical storms particularly the intensity and localisation of the strongest winds and heaviest rain associated with these systems However they do have well demonstrated skill in predicting the tracks followed by storm systems Some storm tracks are more predictable than others depending on the general atmospheric environment within which the storm develops and the ensemble approach provides an estimate of the predictability for each storm Weather forecasting is inherently a chaotic science and errors and uncertainty increase as the for
12. asters see section on guidance below Deterministic forecast model A deterministic forecast is a forecast expressed in terms of only one outcome that is likely to happen a definitive answer that gives no view of the other possible scenarios that might occur a Data source Description Frequency Resolution Leadtime Met Office Met Office data is 6 hourly 5 days provided from the Met Office Global Deterministic model with additional forecaster intervention This information is also available in text format from our Tropical Cyclone guidance messages at www metoffice gov uk weather tropicalcyclone warnings This five day forecast track also includes the latest positions of the storm in black b Data type The five day storm track comes from the Met Office Global Deterministic model which predicts out to five days ahead This storm track is produced by running the forecast model output through the Met Office storm track software to give points in the track latitude longitude and a measure of strength vorticity Forecasters then look at this information and amend it based on their expert understanding of the model and its performance and add categories to interpret the data to say whether the storm is strong medium or weak and whether it is strengthening or weakening The information is then included in StormTracker in the information box that appears when the mouse is hovered over the points on the storm track c U
13. ation based on ensemble storm tracks of a named storm Probability of any storm either pre existing or forming within the forecast period shown in animation for each model and multi model combination Definition The ensemble storm tracks show the forecasted positions for each ensemble member of a named storm for every 12 hour timestep up to 15 days ahead The ensemble mean storm track shows the mean forecasted positions of the mean of all the individual ensemble members for every 12 hour timestep up to 15 days ahead The probability of the centre of a named storm passing within a 75 mile radius of any location on the map for every 12 hour timestep up to 15 days ahead The probability of a storm centre passing within approximately 190 miles 300 km of a location for every 12 hour timestep up to 15 days ahead Wind speed Only available for Met Office Global Regional Ensemble Prediction System MOGREPS 15 model Wind speed probabilities shown for entire basin selected The probability of 10 m sustained wind speed exceeding a threshold of 39 mph 50 knots 58 mph 74 mph for every 12 hour timestep up to 15 days ahead Note that this will estimate the large scale flow around storms but should not be expected to represent the strongest winds close to the storm centre Information highlighted in grey is available to certain users only and only for the Met Office Global Regional Ensemble Predicti
14. ation for storms you must first select a storm On the left hand side of the screen you will notice a side panel containing the names of the global basins Underneath are the names of the active tropical storms Met Office Current Data Australian South West Indian North Indian North Atlantic masa i l J North East Pacific North West Pacific KOMPASU LIONROCE To see what storms are active in the globe the storm names will be displayed under the basin name in which they are active and also displayed on the map as this icon j If you hover the mouse over the storm icon on the map it will show you the name of the storm so you can select by location not only the name 13 StormTracker User Guide v3 Using storm Tracker en If you hover the mouse over the storm icon on the map it will show you the name of the storm so you can select by location not only the name Where there are no active named storms within a basin the panel will not show any names beneath the basin name There are two ways in which you can view a named active storm in more detail i Click on the storm icon you are interested in on the map and the map viewer will zoom to the storm and will display the observed track of the storm as default ii Click on the name of the storm under the basin heading on the left hand side panel to zoom the map to that storm and display the observed track of the storm as default Met Office
15. e Web site from the following examples z In a professional context do you have access to paid for sernices from the Met Office C Yes C No You must register your name and email address and check the box stating your marketing preference to see any content on StormTracker As part of registration you will be directed to the Registered Content License which you must agree to before clicking on the Register button You will then be sent an email confirming your User Name and Password with which you can log in Close your browser and re open it typing in the address of the product as in the Introduction www metoffice gov uk premium stormtracker This will now direct you to the Log in screen 5 StormTracker User Guide v3 Using StormTracker nne Please Log In Password Stay logged in In order to proceed past this screen you must have a valid username and password as supplied by the Met Office Any attempt at unauthorised access or modification of Computer Data is a criminal offence under the Computer Misuse Act 1990 In addition all users of this system are bound by further terms and conditions To the exception of those users who have paid to access advanced versions of the service Users who have paid to access advanced versions of the service shall be bound by the Met Office Standard Terms and Conditions as agreed between the parties Forgotten Password If you have forgotten your username please contact us
16. e on use of historical storm data 29 Frequently asked questions 30 1 have no log in details user name or password 30 2 Why can t see any forecasted weather or storms when I open the map viewer and select from the layer picker 30 3 When I zoom into the area want to view the storm tracksappear to start in different places 30 4 The staring position of the storm tracks and storm strikes do not match up with the storm icon 31 5 Why is there missing data When can see it 31 6 What can use StormTracker for 31 Notes on the use of StormTracker StormTracker is not designed for use for decision making where there is a risk to life and limb It is designed to give a fuller picture than other storm tracking software available by showing several models in one place and many different scenarios of how the weather will evolve This is useful if you are making financial or business decisions based on many possible scenarios happening The Met Office strongly advises that if you need to make a decision on storm information that could affect safety you visit the website of the meteorological centre for the region you are interested in A list of these can be found on our public website at www metoffice gov uk weather tropicalcyclone warnings Please see the section on Data provenance for guidance on the accuracy limitations and advised use of the information in StormTracker Please note that the Met Office can accept no respons
17. eather layer Observed track information A pop up information box will appear when you hover the mouse over the points on the observed storm tracks and will contain information for the storm track at that position The information varies depending on the type of track being displayed 18 StormTracker User Guide v3 5 Displaying historical weather Click on the Historical weather tab on the left hand side panel to access a database of previous storms To select the database for the historic storms click on the arrow to the right of the box labelled Selected basin and select the basin from the drop down menu that appears Please note that only data for the North East Pacific and North Atlantic basins can be selected as these are the basins for which the data is available see Data provenance section for further information Met Office a CUSSI ses vee sero a ae ae w rs p NOT NAMED 4093 kaan ale ey e yy MOT sh Kepternber a e ae mi Jma mans l wor name Ayak a J eN ME e o mf EE m mn me ake NOT NAMED Saptambar 4893 KEREM EEE ei aa ir i me HEDER baie TS La mes October ama aoe e ame i in ane 1854 z ez F Once you have selected the desired basin the panel will show a list of storms in a table with columns for Name Month Year Landfall and Category The map will re centre itself based on the new map viewer size and the basin you have selected Above the table will be boxes for Name
18. ecast time ahead increases It is advised therefore that StormTracker is not used to make single definitive decisions but as a general guide to show the range of possible outcomes for a given weather situation Guidance on wind speed ensemble data While dynamical ensemble models are skilful at resolving global scale weather types and patterns the spatial resolution of the Met Office global model is not sufficient to properly resolve smaller scale individual storm feature characteristics of wind that are directly associated with a specific storm feature and is likely to underestimate the actual outcomes As such it is advised that the wind speed layer provided is used to inform a view of the general weather situation not to understand or predict the actual impacts from wind speed for forecast storms Note that this will estimate the large scale flow around storms but should not be expected to represent the strongest winds close to the storm centre 25 StormTracker User Guide v3 Guidance on vorticity in ensemble forecast data Vorticity included in the tool tips for ensemble mean and ensemble forecast tracks is used by meteorologists as one of many parameters to inform measures of storm strength but when taken in isolation is not suitable for decision making To understand storm strength it is recommended that the UK deterministic five day forecast track tool tips are used as the strength categories on this layer have been interpreted by forec
19. er is an information button i that when clicked or hovered over will display a key to the information Clicking on the bar chart symbol to the right of the layer name changes the opacity of a layer When data is not available for a layer a yellow or red triangle will be displayed adjacent to the checkbox next to the model data label in the layer picker If the data for a layer that is not a storm track is missing the map viewer will show red tiles with a message saying no tile data available 17 StormTracker User Guide v3 Forecast Weather Storm T Storm Strikes Centre USA Forming Storms Wind Speed A pop up information box will appear when you hover the mouse over the points on the forecast tracks The box will contain information for the storm track at that position The information varies depending on what type of track is being displayed 4 Displaying latest weather Using the layer picker To select the latest weather menu in the layer picker click on the arrow on the right of the top box and select Latest weather from the drop down menu The layer picker will only show the content for which you have registered and subscribed Users will see the menu below Latest Weather ed Cloud Visible ed Cloud IR Surface Temperature Select the latest weather type you want to display by clicking on the relevant checkbox To unselect a layer click again on the checkbox beside the w
20. fter this date will be included in the search results Dates can be selected for months and years from January 1850 until December 2009 End date month and year The finish date for the search Any tropical storm that occurred on or before this date will be included in the search results Dates can be selected for months and years from January 1850 until December 2009 Landfall Whether the storm made landfall at any point in its lifetime i e cross the coastline onto land c Usual availability time Not applicable Data will be updated with previous year s storms on an annual basis d Guidance on use of historical storm data Not applicable 29 StormTracker User Guide v3 We hope that you will be satisfied with your experience of StormTracker If you have any queries about the product or its use please refer to the frequently asked questions below to see whether your question is answered If not and you experience a persistent problem please contact us using the details below in question 1 I have no log in details user name or password Please see online details for how to access StormTracker If you have forgotten lost or have not been sent your log in details your user name or password please contact the customer centre by clicking on the link reading customer centre on the log in screen beneath Forgotten password Alternatively you can contact us as below By phone or fax from the UK Tel 0870 900 0100
21. he weather layers from becoming unviewable For further information on resolution of the data in the layers please see section below on Data provenance 8 StormTracker User Guide v3 Using StormTracker min On the left hand side of the screen you will notice a panel containing the names of the global basins underneath are the names of the active tropical storms It contains two tabs which can be selected to display Current data and Historical data Current data tab will look like this Historical data tab will look like this Met Office Australian Met Office Current Storms Historical Storms Australian North Indian North Atlantic North East Pacific North West Pacific When the historical data tab is selected the map will resize the floating footer menu will re centre automatically and the panel will slide out to the right so it is wider To remove the side panel from view click on the arrows at the top left of the panel that point left When the side panel is reduced the arrows will remain pointing right Click on these to restore the side panel 9 StormTracker User Guide v3 Selecting storm basins To automatically zoom and move the map to a specific storm basin you can select the basin by clicking on the basin name on the panel on the left hand side under the Current data tab Met Office Australian South West Indian North Indian North Atlantic North East Pacific North West Pacific
22. ibility for the accuracy or content of data supplied to us by other modelling centres and strongly advises that you read your terms and conditions carefully Ill StormTracker User Guide v3 Introduction StormTracker is a tool designed to help you understand risks and forecasted scenarios for tropical storms around the world It is designed for users who need to understand in advance of the usual 3 5 day forecasts the range of predicted outcomes of severe tropical weather It enables comparison of different forecasts combinations of forecasts observed latest weather and historical storms to enable users to compile a complete picture of risks Content includes 1 x forecast weather layer UK deterministic 5 day storm track e 1 x observed track e 3x latest weather layers cloud IR and Visible satellite sea surface temperatures e Thousands of historic storms HURDAT data from 1850 until the present 3 StormTracker User Guide v3 1 System requirements System requirements and settings For optimum viewing your computer requires the following settings Minimum spec e 1000 Mhz processor e 1GB RAM e Flash Player 10 e Web browser e Internet connection Recommended spec e 1000 Mhz processor e 2 GB RAM e Flash Player 10 e nternet Explorer e High speed broadband or better This service is supported in the following browser operating system combinations e Microsoft Internet Explorer version 5
23. ice European Centre and USA No of UK Met Office Description Met Office data is provided from the Met Office Global Regional Ensemble Prediction System MOGREPS 15 medium range model Frequency Run 12 hourly to 15 days ahead 31 timesteps 00Z and 12Z Resolution 60 km 70 vertical levels members Leadtime 15 days European Centre USA under other European Centre data is provided from the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System EPS USA data is provided from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA s National Centers for Environmental Prediction NCEP Global Forecast System GFS model 21 StormTracker User Guide v3 Run 12 hourly to 15 days ahead 31 timesteps 00Z and 12Z Run 12 hourly to 15 days ahead 61 timesteps 32 km days 1 10 64 km days 10 15 62 vertical levels 70 km 28 vertical levels The data are also available in these multi model combinations UK Met Office European Centre Data is provided as a mean of the data from the Met Office Global Regional Ensemble Prediction System MOGREPS 15 medium range model and the data from the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System EPS UK Met Office USA European Centre USA Data is provided is a mean of the data from the Met Office Glob
24. iewer the different forecast models available for a particular storm feature click on the checkboxes next to the model names To unselect a layer click on the checkbox again to remove the tick To remove all selected layers for a storm feature click on the checkbox next to the storm feature in the grey bar Animated layers When selecting some weather types such as cloud or storm features such as forming storms a floating control panel will appear over the map viewer This control panel can be used to control the animation of the layer as it moves through the forecasted times There are controls on the top right that will rewind fast forward pause and play and a sliding scale beneath a an t l TS LUTS W 18 00 UTC on 02 Sep Two smaller scales will appear to enable you to control both the speed of the animation and the length of time spent dwelling on each image in the animation sequence Moving the bars on these scales to the right will increase the speed and dwell time of the animation and to the left will decrease them 06 00 UTC on 02 Sep To see a smooth animation all time steps need to load first This takes a few moments to load before the animation smoothes out Screen tip time steps will be expressed in Universal Time Continuum UTC which is equivalent to Greenwich Mean Time GMT or Zulu time Z 16 StormTracker User Guide v3 Using StormTracker nne Next to each forecast model type in the layer pick
25. m probability Ensemble mean storm tracks Strike probability 15 00 03 00 1 25 23 25 11 05 22 05 24 StormTracker User Guide v3 Forming storm probability 15 00 03 00 d Guidance on interpretation of ensemble forecasts Ensemble modelling is a commonly accepted method of quantifying the possible spread of outcomes of a forecast and is very useful for understanding various different scenarios that might develop It is best used to provide general guidance on the possible ways a situation may develop and the relative likelihood of different outcomes and should not be used on its own to formulate a single definitive decision based on one outcome occurring If you would like to access expert advice from Met Office forecasters to help you please contact stormtracker metoffice gov uk To understand the single most likely outcome for life and limb or operational decisions please refer to the official guidance available at these websites Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres National Hurricane Center Miami Caribbean Sea Gulf of Mexico North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific oceans east of 140 W Japan Meteorological Agency Tokyo Western North Pacific Ocean from Malay peninsula to 180 E Indian Meteorological Department New Delhi Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea The Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu Hawaii North Pacific Ocean 140 180 W M t o France La R union South Indian Oce
26. o search up to or from a date Use the radio buttons to select whether the storm made landfall Enter the storm name if you know it Maximum storm category can be selected from the drop down menu by clicking on the arrow on the right of the box Met Office Australian Moth Shan thee ei Pais 3 Landfall ves No Either Category 1 ii Name Month ji Year landfall Category aa To clear the filters or selections click on the buttons just above the table 20 StormTracker User Guide v3 StormTracker includes information from several different models and sources to enable you to build a complete picture of what is happening This information is split into different types Forecast weather Latest weather and Historic weather Under each of these headings below are the data sources the data types usual availability times and the guidance on using and interpreting it appropriately 1 Forecast weather Ensemble forecast models An ensemble forecast is where a forecast model is run many times using very slightly different starting conditions to represent the uncertainty inherent in our understanding of the current state of the Earth s atmosphere The outcomes are all different and represent more accurately the range of possible outcomes in terms of probability This enables decisions to be taken based on a number of potential scenarios a Data sources Three global ensemble forecasts are used in StormTracker UK Met Off
27. on System MOGREPS 15 model 23 StormTracker User Guide v3 c Usual availability times Please note times expressed are in Zulu time Z Coordinated Universal Time UTC Greenwich Mean Time GMT Daylight savings or British Summertime are not expressed so you will need to account for this when using StormTracker The 00Z Midnight model run is expressed first followed by the 12Z Midday run UK Met Office Ensemble storm tracks Available 00Z run 12Z run 09 55 21 55 Ensemble mean storm tracks 09 55 21 55 Strike probability Forming storm probability 09 10 21 10 09 30 2130 Wind speed 09 10 2110 European Centre Ensemble storm tracks Ensemble mean storm tracks 09 55 2155 09 55 2155 Strike probability 14 00 0200 Forming storm probability 14 00 0200 USA Other Ensemble storm tracks 07 40 1940 Ensemble mean storm tracks 07 40 1940 Strike probability 08 20 2020 Forming storm probability 07 30 1930 UK Met Office European Centre Ensemble mean storm tracks Strike probability 11 25 23 25 11 05 22 05 Forming storm probability 13 40 01 40 UK Met Office USA Ensemble mean storm tracks Strike probability 11 25 23 25 11 05 22 05 Forming storm probability 14 00 02 00 European Centre USA Ensemble mean storm tracks Strike probability 11 25 23 25 11 05 22 05 Forming stor
28. or 01392 885680 Fax 0870 900 5050 or 01392 885681 By phone or fax outside the UK Tel 44 1392 885680 Fax 44 1392 885681 By email enquiries metoffice gov uk By social media We can be found on Twitter Facebook Flickr and YouTube More details can be found on our social media page By post Met Office FitzRoy Road Exeter Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom Why can t I see any forecasted weather or storms when I open the map viewer and select from the layer picker The map viewer will only display forecasted storms and weather when a storm has been selected Select a storm by clicking on the storm icon you want to display or pick the name of the storm from the left hand panel under the basin name Then click on the layer picker to show the forecasted storm information See Named storm selection and Using the layer picker for more information When I zoom into the area want to view the ensemble storm tracks appear to start in different places Ensemble predictions work by running the model many times with slightly different starting conditions This will result in a spread in the forecast tracks which enables a probabilistic forecast to be made Thus as you zoom in each of the ensemble tracks will appear to start from a slightly different position 30 StormTracker User Guide v3 The staring position of the storm tracks and storm strikes do not match up with the storm icon The storm icon indicates the latest observed p
29. ore information Please note that all forecasts will only be displayed if there is an active storm for the basin or region you are looking at and you have selected it If there are no active storms forecasts cannot be displayed See Named storm selection for more information StormTracker is a brand new product in beta testing mode and as such is likely to experience some glitches and small problems Our terms and conditions and licenses reflect the service levels you can expect so please refer to these if you are unsure Please note that the Met Office can accept no responsibility for the completeness or delivery to us of data supplied by other modelling centres and strongly advises that you read and accept your terms and conditions carefully What can I use StormTracker for StormTracker is not designed for use for decision making where there is a risk to life and limb It is designed to give a fuller picture than other storm tracking software available by showing several models in one place and many different scenarios of how the weather will evolve This is useful if you are making financial or business decisions based on many possible scenarios happening The Met Office strongly advises that if you need to make a decision on storm information that could affect safety you visit the website of the meteorological centre for the region you are interested in A list of these can be found on our public website at www metoffice gov uk weather
30. osition of the storm and is updated every six hours The ensemble forecast which produces the storm tracks and storm strikes is updated every 12 hours and takes some time to run and the data to be loaded into StormTracker Thus at certain times of day the start time of the forecast data may be six 12 or even 18 hours behind the time of the storm icon Thus there may be a visible discrepancy between the starting position of the storm tracks strikes and that of the storm icon See usual availability times earlier in the User Guide for an indication of when ensemble forecast data becomes available See Data provenance section for more detail on model resolution and the characteristics of ensemble modelling Why is there missing data When can I see it StormTracker is handling data from lots of different sources and from several different centres of weather forecasting expertise The individual models do not run at the same time as each other This means that data will be available for one model before the others become available The multi model combinations in particular take longer to process than individual models so arrive later For more information on expected arrival times see Data provenance section If data is late or not available the model has not run or not run on time it will be supplied when it becomes available from the model If there is a problem with the application this can take longer to fix See Selecting model run for m
31. s default Save Region Manage Regions 7 To change your default region you can use the floating footer bar to make the map go to the region you would like to make your default using the left hand drop down menu of saved regions under Select Region then click on the Set as default button Alternatively you can move the map to the desired region click on Save Region then click on the default checkbox as per the instructions above This will automatically change the existing default region to the one displayed currently on the map To delete saved regions click on the Manage Regions button on the right hand side of the floating footer bar The map will grey out and a box will pop up containing a list of your saved regions To delete one select it from the list by clicking on it and click on the check box on the right of the table in the column that says Select to delete Then click on the Update button at the bottom The region will be removed from the list of saved regions in both the Manage Regions button and the drop down list of saved regions on the left hand side of the floating footer bar Please use this screen to change a Region name or delete a Region If you have set a default Region it will be shown in bold Name l Select to Delete phillippines LI Brazil LI 12 StormTracker User Guide v3 Using storm Tracker n 3 Displaying forecast weather To see any storm tracks or forecasted weather inform
32. sual availability time The data is usually made available only when storms are active and every 12 hours 00Z and 12Z runs respectively You should expect the tracks to be available from 09 00 and 21 00 UTC See 1 c for more information d Guidance on interpretation of deterministic forecasts The Met Office issues tropical cyclone guidance messages and storm tracks twice per day based on information from its global model forecasts The deterministic five day forecast provided in StormTracker has been interpreted and checked by expert Met Office forecasters before it is displayed However these are not official tropical cyclone forecasts and therefore should not be used exclusively to make decisions which will affect life or property Refer to forecasts issued by one of the RSMCs below for official forecast information Also note that the messages are only routinely issued during the stated seasons although guidance is issued out of season if a storm is active or forecast 26 StormTracker User Guide v3 The messages are primarily designed to give an indication of the Met Office global model s forecast track of tropical cyclones which are known to exhibit some skill Explicit forecasts of maximum wind speed are not given as the model at its current resolution cannot resolve the wind field with sufficient detail However a qualitative indication of forecast wind strength is given based on the model s relative vorticity field at the
33. th West Indian ji t 2 91 f arvad Sea Surface Temperature ua as North Indian aj amey one ae pp Mar tag he 5 ake SS yea N Pyara as North Atlantic Z f 7 E lt a 8 Korea sapan ae ch abin India isy Siena Tew Uyu North East Pacific North West Pacific No regions saved yet Set as Save Region 7 StormTracker User Guide v3 2 Using the map viewer Zooming and controlling the map The map viewer component of StormTracker is based on Google maps so it can be used in the same way It consists of a global map that can be explored by clicking and dragging the mouse to move the map or by using the direction arrows above the scale on the left side of the map Zooming in and out can be controlled using the scale on the left hand side of the map click on the bar on the scale to move it or click on the scale itself or the plus at the top end or the minus sign at the bottom end to move the bar to the desired zoom level plus and up the scale is zoom in minus and down the scale is zoom out To return to the previous result click on the box containing four arrows at the centre of the direction arrows Please note due to the scale of individual storms it is not recommended that the map is viewed at a highly zoomed in level as the forecast and latest weather layers will be of a certain resolution so this will not provide a clear view of the weather The zoom scale on the map viewer has been limited to prevent t
34. tropicalcyclone warnings Please see the section on Data provenance for guidance on the accuracy limitations and advised use of the information in StormTracker Please note that the Met Office can accept no responsibility for the accuracy or content of data supplied to us by other modelling centres and strongly advises that you read your terms and conditions carefully 31 StormTracker User Guide v3 Met Office Met Office Tel 0870 900 0100 Produced by the Met Office FitzRoy Road Exeter Fax 0870 900 5050 Crown copyright 2012 12 0314 Devon EX1 3PB enquiries metoffice gov uk Met Office and the Met Office Logo United Kingdom www metoffice gov uk are registered trademarks

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