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ShareMaestro User Manual Version 3.0 February 2014

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1. L AU A w B E BF BG BH Bl s sm c cs zl 2 3 24 25 27 28 29 30 E 32 36 37 38 41 58 RESULTS PROJECTED PROJECTED PERSONAL 59 Projected Projected CURRENT VALUE ANNUAL INVESTMENT VALUE at end period 60 Actual End period End period SHARE AS SOF PRICEFOR PRICEFOR PRICEFOR GROWTH postHR tax CGT and PRP 61 Current Dividend End period Share Investment INTRINSIC CURRENT 95 105 115 Value Annual growth 62 Net Dividend Growth Rate Dividend Value VALUE PRICE VALUATION VALUATION VALUATION atbasicratetax seeUserManual see User Manual 65 2341 28 268 8 7904 8 9365 0 7856 4 118 1 8269 8 7482 2 6831 6 74 8292 45 66 17 9 0 14 47 34 2 5 12 8 2 6 24 2 2 NUM 3 NUM 67 15 15 16 26 1 30 7 24 6 74 259 234 214 378 28 68 45 115 77 384 8 412 4 2748 27 0 289 3 261 7 239 0 16 5 384 ATP 69 83 42 10 1 176 1 2098 168 3 28 9 1772 160 3 1464 18 4 192 19 9 70 317 73 45 2 941 9 1096 5 879 9 363 926 2 838 0 765 1 14 6 1005 16 1 71 12 0 14 127 355 5 403 4 318 1 36 6 334 9 303 0 276 6 14 2 371 15 6 72 125 55 164 231 9 287 5 2307 374 2428 2197 200 6 14 1 261 15 8 73 31 0 93 48 2 796 3 959 2 769 7 41 0 810 2 733 1 669 3 12 6 874 14 2 74 9 6 73 137 2457 2946 2364 46 8 248 8 2254 205 6 10 2 269 11 8 a Column AU Current Net Dividend the dividend per share net of the deemed basic rate of tax paid
2. 60 ShareMaestro User Manual BACKGROUND INFORMATION AND ANALYSIS ON UK COMPANIES 61 APPENDIX 2 SHAREMAESTRO TERMS AND CONDITIONS e eeeeee eee eee nennen nates as etna ann 62 APPENDIX 3 SHAREMAESTRO SUPPORT 65 Page 4 ShareMaestro User Manual UNLEASH THE POWER OF SHAREMAESTRO For centuries pundits and analysts have argued about whether share prices are expensive or cheap Traditional methods of valuing shares such as dividend yields and price earnings ratios do not work because they ignore the current and prospective economic environment They also do not scientifically value the future corporate growth prospects ShareMaestro uniquely combines the use of selected corporate data with economic and market data to calculate the current real value of the FTSE 100 or a UK share Now at last you have at your fingertips a proven powerful system which measures the true value of UK shares according to the prevailing market factors You can also measure the impact on UK share values of changes in one or more of these factors ShareMaestro has separate modules covering The FTSE 100 share index which incorporates the top 100 shares comprising nearly 80 of the value of the UK stock market Individual UK shares from the FTSE All Share index ShareMaestro is based on extensive research and has been developed
3. n Data produced in association with ShareScope w ShareMaestro Limited 22 1 COMMON DATA See the User Manual for data definition 24 Valuation Date 29112013 25 FTSE100 Dividend Yield 3 52 26 Inflation Factor 1 average inflation for period 280 27 Inflation Factor 2 2 39 28 End period inflation rate 29 Redemption Yield 5 year Gilts 30 Personal Capital Gains Tax Rate 31 Personal Extra HR Tax on Divs 32 Personal Risk Premium 36 Default real dividend growth rate p a 37 Default actual dividend growth rate p a 3 80 41 2 SHARE SPECIFIC DATA 58 We can accept no responsibility for the accuracy of data which is supplied by third parties INPUT DATA 59 Use of information from ShareMaestro is subject to the ShareMaestro terms and conditions 60 which are available from the ShareMaestro website at www sharemaestro co uk ShareMaestro Factual data Factual data Assessed data Assessed data As 61 valuatinns do not constitute investment advice from ShareMaestm imited Factual data Current share Current net linadiusted end Risk Re Cell B24 indicates the cell located at row 24 column B Common input data is used in all valuations and is not share specific Cell B24 Valuation Date Date of the valuation data Cell B25 FTSE 100 Dividend Yield The FTSE 100 dividend paid over the last year expressed as a percentage of the current market price
4. THE SHAREMAESTRO INVESTMENT HORIZON ShareMaestro is a value investing system Value investing systems value shares from fundamental corporate financial data such as current and prospective dividends per share Valuing investing systems are the only systems with proven track records of outperforming the market over the long term ShareMaestro uses dividends as the basis of its valuations both current and prospective sustainable dividends Dividends have been chosen as the key financial measure because o Dividends have to be paid out of cash and therefore cannot be manipulated unlike earnings Any company which resorts to paying dividends in the form of shares rather than cash is almost certainly in deep financial trouble for example this was a key signal that the Royal Bank of Scotland was in serious difficulties o Reinvested dividends account for around 90 of the value of long term equity investment It is the nature of value investing systems that it may take some time possibly as much as two or three years for the market price to reflect the fundamental value of the share This is because in the short term market prices are driven by fear and greed So ShareMaestro is not suitable for day trading nor for short term investment strategies aiming at profits within a few months It is true that the ShareMaestro FTSE100 spread betting strategy uses spread bet contracts which expire in two or three months but this stellar return strategy
5. http markets ft com ft markets researchArchive asp From the Equities category select the FTSE Actuaries Share Indices UK series report This report gives gt FTSE 100 price gt FTSE 100 net dividend yield Sector yields useful for share valuations Select the Bonds and Rates category and the FTSE UK Gilts Indices report This report gives gt Redemption yield 96 p a on 5 year gilts www bankofengland co uk statistics yieldcurve index htm gt This site is the source of inflation factors 1 and 2 inflation factors and 4 are reserved for possible future use Click on the spreadsheet entitled implied inflation government liability to download the data Share valuation For a single share valuation you need the above FTSE 100 sources plus www digitallook com dimedia investing Via performance tables on this site you can find or derive the information required to populate the remaining share valuation input fields You need to consult the Share Valuation section of this manual on how to use the information Current share price Current share net dividend yield Risk Premium Real dividend growth rate p a VVVV Page 60 ShareMaestro User Manual BACKGROUND INFORMATION AND ANALYSIS ON UK COMPANIES There are numerous sources Amongst the better known are The Financial Times The Investors Chronicle gt ShareScope Shares Magazine gt The daily financial pages of the UK
6. Source Description FTSE 100 ID Your choice of file name for the valuation FTSE 100 Any information which you wish to attach to the valuation up to 35 Description characters This field must be completed to save your valuation Valuation Date The date of the data on which the valuation is based Current FTSE 100 price The current FTSE 100 price is available from the Financial Times and other broadsheets Also available from websites such as http markets ft com ft markets researchArchive asp Select the Equities category and the FTSE Actuaries Indices UK series report for the relevant date see Web Sources below Current Net Dividend Yield Annual pa effective dividend yield on the FTSE 100 index net of basic rate tax Dividend yields are normally quoted net of basic rate tax in the FT or the financial pages of any broadsheets The Current Net Dividend 96 Yield on the FTSE 100 is available from the Financial Times newspaper and other broadsheets and from http markets ft com ft markets researchArchive asp Inflation Factor 1 See Using Bank of England market implied inflation rates Inflation Factor 2 See Using Bank of England market implied inflation rates Inflation Factor 3 Reserved for possible future use Leave this field blank Inflation Factor 4 Reserved for possible future use Leave this field blank Risk Premium 96 The Risk Premium compensates for the greater risk
7. This projected growth rate can be used to compare the return on the investment with other potential returns available e g five year fixed rate cash USING PERSONAL TAX RATES AND PERSONAL RISK PREMIUM PRP TO CALCULATE PERSONAL INVESTMENT RETURNS The automated valuations produce a projected compound annual five year investment return including the reinvestment of dividends taxed at the basic rate of tax column BN This return does not take account of any capital gains tax payable nor does it take account of the Risk Premium which is only used for the calculation of the current intrinsic share value You can customise the calculated investment return to produce a post tax return which takes into account your tax situation You also have the option to include your choice of Risk Premium for the FTSE 100 or share this will reduce the projected return accordingly Page 25 ShareMaestro User Manual Personal Capital Gains Tax Rate cell B30 Enter here your effective marginal capital gains tax rate Consult the HMRC website for the prevailing basic and higher rate capital gains tax rates Please bear in mind that under the UK tax regime there is no capital gains tax payable on investments in ISA and SIPPs There is also an annual capital gains allowance before any tax is payable So the value for this field may be zero depending on your personal circumstances The default value for this cell is zero Personal Extra HR Tax o
8. Profit exceeds Net Cashflow from Operating Activities it is likely that creative accounting has been used Check 2 Check that the ratio of total market capitalisation of the company total stock market worth of the company divided by the Net Cashflow from Operating Activities does not exceed 10 Page 31 ShareMaestro User Manual Check 3 Check that there is sufficient cash in the company to pay the total annual dividend Borrowing money to pay dividends as some companies do makes no sense and is not the mark of a valuable company This check involves taking information from the cashflow statement in the report and accounts There is not total consistency between companies as to where some of the required information appears in the cash flow statement and so you need to be careful where to find it Some of the costs below may be incorporated in the Cashflow figure and so you need to make sure you do not double count From the total Net Cashflow from Operating Activities deduct the following sums Income Tax paid Interest paid Depreciation of property plant and equipment If the cashflow remaining after these deductions is not sufficient to pay the last total annual dividend the amount should appear in the cash flow statement you should be wary about buying the shares unless you believe the finances of the company will soon be transformed Depreciation of property plant and equipment is a non cash item but the generato
9. ShareMaestro is designed for use only by individual private investors who understand the concepts and terminology of investment in equities and stock markets You may not transfer your ShareMaestro licence to other users By using ShareMaestro you warrant that you comply with all the terms and conditions of the ShareMaestro licence You should read the ShareMaestro User Manual fully before using ShareMaestro The latest version of the User Manual is available from the ShareMaestro website at www sharemaestro co uk Resource Centre shtml It is your responsibility to satisfy yourself that ShareMaestro is suitable for the purposes for which you use it and any representation whether express or implied about ShareMaestro and its performance is excluded You will not use ShareMaestro for illegal purposes nor to bring into disrepute either ShareMaestro Limited or its employees agents and authorised representatives The ShareMaestro system is protected by copyright and any publication copying or distribution of all or part of the ShareMaestro system including without limit ShareMaestro valuations and the User Manual requires the prior written approval of ShareMaestro Limited ShareMaestro is designed to provide intrinsic valuations and other related information only for the FTSE 100 index or for the ordinary shares of UK companies within the FTSE All Share Index excluding investment companies and investment trusts and equity investment instrument
10. pages of one of the broadsheets daily That way you will pick up news about companies in trouble or companies with exciting prospects PROFIT WARNINGS Avoid companies which have issued a profit warning in the last year This is a clear danger signal Frequently all the bad news does not come out at once as company management is too embarrassed to reveal the full horror stories all at once Further profit warnings generally follow with a negative impact on the share price DIVIDEND CUTS Avoid companies which have cut their dividend in the last year or have paid their dividends in shares rather than cash This is a clear sign that the company will struggle to pay dividends in the future Page 28 ShareMaestro User Manual RECENT CHANGE OF KEY MANAGERS Be very wary of companies which have recently suffered the loss of key managers such as the Chairperson Chief Executive or the Finance Director Unless these managers have been genuinely headhunted for a new position such changes are often a sign that all is not well with the company Whilst new management may transform the fortunes of the company this is a gamble Managers who are successful with one company are not always successful in a new environment TAKEOVERS Takeovers do not generally deliver value for shareholders Normally the company will have to pay a premium price to take over another company Furthermore the benefits of integration are generally exaggerated to concea
11. sees teen 21 DIRECTORY OF INPUT VALUBS B EE HER ERR ER ede glee Maudie eee 21 COMMON INPUT DATA ian Gu EO OE I DERE Mc Eie pee Ree 21 SHARE SPECIFIC INPUT DATA ROWS 66 ONWARDS eese nennen 23 DIRECTORY OF RESULTS 3 ee REPRE RUE alse PEUPLE ee FE Eee ae ve ER ge 24 USING PERSONAL TAX RATES AND PERSONAL RISK PREMIUM PRP TO CALCULATE PERSONAL INVESTMENT RETURNS be enc ERR ER Ree SEHE E PER LEE e Ee es 25 COMPARING PROJECTED RETURNS WITH ALTERNATIVE 26 TESTING THE IMPACT OF CHANGES TO THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ee 27 REVIEWING AND FINE TUNING SHARE VALUATIONS eee eerie seen seen nennen netta sata saeua seus 28 PROFIL WARNINGS M D UR Min 28 ERIS 28 RECENT CHANGE OF KEY nennen enne neret nennen nne 29 Em 29 RIGHTS 55065 dip nestettevapubapaced n prt put ci eiie n eiie asters 29 ShareMaestro User Manual LOOK FOR BAD NEWS n ei Renate eie E Duelo eter E e ter Ob t ER 29 CHECK THE CURRENT AND PROSPECTIVE DIVIDENDS eene nennen 29 HIGH BORROWING ws eiecit iru E esee teri edendo deiecit s 31 CHECK THE CASHELONW dieit torte a E ee deter oH EE err er 31 FT
12. the same for each share in the valuation in cells B24 to B38 The sources for this data are covered earlier in this manual This static data consists of o Factual data which is the same as you would complete for an individual share valuation Valuation Date FTSE 100 Dividend Yield Inflation Factors 1 and 2 and the Redemption Yield on 5 year Gilts o Two judgement based factors The default real dividend growth rate p a Target dividend cover Import the share data from the ShareScope Excel data file which you created in the previous section o Select cell A63 Via Import Data Import External Data Import Data locate the ShareScope data file which you created in the previous section This must be an Excel file Page 56 ShareMaestro User Manual o A Select Table box will appear Click OK o An Import Data box will appear Check that A 63 appears under the Existing worksheet button and click OK o The spreadsheet will be populated with the imported data Save the spreadsheet as a Copy and close the worksheet You will not be able to save onto the original ShareMaestro Bulk Share Valuation Template ShareScope Data via ShareScript as it is secured against modification 4 Goto the section Running the bulk share valuation from the spreadsheet Notes on the calculations made from running the ShareMaestro Bulk Share Valuation ShareScope Data via ShareScript spreadsheet 1 If there is no dividend pro
13. valuation dates and can be verified Even greater returns are possible by adjusting the input value for real dividend growth according to the prospects for corporate profitability over the prospective five year investment period Over 11 3 years the total cumulative capital gain of the FTSE 100 for the periods when the ShareMaestro signals indicated that you should not be invested in the FTSE 100 was just 4 The highest capital gain of the FTSE 100 non invested periods 7 5 was lower than the lowest capital gain of any of the FTSE 100 invested periods 8 9 FTSE 100 ETF Strategy From 1984 to the end of 2013 a strategy which switches investment between a FTSE 100 Exchange Traded Fund and cash according to the standard ShareMaestro FTSE 100 buy and sell signals has delivered a compound annual return of 9 95 including reinvested dividends This return is higher than that achieved by any FTSE 100 tracker fund 1000 invested at the start of 1984 would have grown to over 17 200 by the end of 2013 FTSE 100 Spread Bet Strategy From 1984 to the 20the December 2013 a strategy which buys FTSE 100 spread bets when the standard ShareMaestro FTSE 100 valuation is at least 105 and sells the spread bets when the valuation falls below 105 has achieved a compound annual return of 28 8 This is considerably more than the best return achieved by any UK equity fund over this period 1000 invested at the start of 1984 would have grown
14. 2563 99 2238 96 2244 63 2034 21 1 97 1 53 23 27 28 3065 78 rrer au Cement Lu donee Om Lan m na annarar nant anon or nisaran Anc P naan ca ey 206 e i4 4 lof 1 gt Done Unknown Zone i http specials C ShareMaestro FTSE 100 Net Dividend Yield FTSE 100 Price Page 42 ShareMaestro User Manual Redemption Yield p a 5 yr Gilts This is available from http markets ft com ft markets researchArchive asp see above Select the Bonds and Rates category and the FTSE UK Gilts Indices report Click on the relevant date to download the PDF which will be in this format same information as in Financial Times paper http specials ft com siterefresh stats pdfs ftsegovsecs FTSEGO20806 pdf Microsoft Intern IE File Edit Go To Favorites Help Ld Qa x JO Search W Favorites 27 5 Address http specials ft com siterefresh stats pdfs ftsegovsecs FTSEGO20806 pdf _ _ _ M Links Xt 2 Search 8 2 Kl Y Mail Norton Internet Security amp kv Norton AntiVirus CSODOT Data available at www ft com marketsdata Price Indices Wed Day s Months Year s Total Return Return Wed Day s Months Years Total Return Return Gilts Aug 2 chge chge chge Return 1 month 1 year Index linked Aug 2 chge chge chge Return 1 month 1 year 1 Up to 5 ye
15. AE 3 8 i Actual Dividend Growth Rate pa 5 9 i Inflation Factor 2 3 3 Projected Growth For Period 1 15 9 i i Projected Annual Growth 1 Inflation Factor 3 0 1 34 Projected Annual Growth 2 4 12 i Maaton Factor 4 0 1 Projected End Period FTSE100 Value 5042 6 i Risk Premium 10 i Projected FTSE100 Annual Growth 6 2 i Real Dividend Growth Rate pa 2 i ake 57 i Redemption Yield p a 5 yr Gilts 609 i Current FTSE100 Instrinsic Value 942 1 i Created Date Amended Date Report All Valuations Calculate Exit New Valuation start Inbox Microso fy ShareMaestrou ShareMaestro ShareMaestro Vir Firefox Click to exit without Click to save the valuation saving valuation under your choice of file name Page 46 Results Fields In Order Of Display ShareMaestro User Manual Results Field Label Description Current Net Dividend The value of the current effective annual dividend for the FTSE 100 including declared dividends but excluding forecast dividends Calculated from the input values of the Current FTSE 100 Price and the Current Net Dividend Yield for the FTSE 100 Inflation Factor 5 This field is reserved for possible future use Implied Average Inflation for Period Implied average inflation RPI over the period Do not use the ShareMaestro valuation if the calculated inflation rate is le
16. Page 21 ShareMaestro User Manual Cell B26 Inflation Factor 1 average inflation for period market expectations for average inflation over the next five years as published by the Bank of England Cell B27 Inflation Factor 2 a calculated value used by ShareMaestro software to produce valuations Cell B28 End period Inflation Rate market expectations for inflation in five years time as published by the Bank of England Cell B29 Redemption Yield 5 year Gilts the current gross redemption yield on gilts redeemed in five years time This yield takes into account the current market price the redemption value and interest payments over the period Cell B30 Personal Capital Gains Tax Rate your personal marginal capital gains tax rate This should take into account the annual tax free capital gains allowance and other capital gains incurred during the tax year In the 2013 2014 tax year after the tax free capital gains tax allowance has been used the personal capital gains tax rate is 18 for basic rate taxpayers and 28 or higher rate taxpayers Cell B31 Personal Extra HR Tax on Divs this will be zero if you are a basic rate taxpayer This is the extra percentage tax on the net dividend after deemed basic rate tax which higher rate tax payers have to pay In the 2013 2014 tax year the extra tax for normal higher rate taxpayers excluding the super tax rate is 25 on the dividend received Cell B32 Perso
17. VALUATION To save the valuation under the same file name as the ID which you selected as the first input value click on the Save box If the file ID already exists a Duplicate Valuation screen will appear asking whether you want to overwrite the previous valuation or add the new valuation in addition to the previous valuation If you choose the latter a suffix 001 will be added to the file ID The file name will then appear in the list of valuation files to the left of the valuation screen The valuation screen input and results values will be cleared Page 48 ShareMaestro User Manual EDITING THE VALUATION If you click on a saved file name the following screen format will appear Df TS A U ee 6S Vale ShareMaestro System ShareMaestro Limited 51 3 Screen FTSE100Valuation FTSE100 Valuation Veron 20 5 Year Investment Period Date 08 03 2009 15 21 42 FTSE ID 10010 991230Dec i 030312Mar Valuation Description Core Valuation abe INPUT DATA RESULTS DATA Valuation Date 39 42 1999 i Current Net Dividend 141 38 Current FTSE100 Price 6930 2 i Inflation Factor 5 0 A implied Average Inflation For Period 3 8 Current Net Dividend Yield 2 04 Implied End Period Inflation 4 3 Inflation Factor 1 3 8 Actual Dividend Growth Rate pa 5 9 Inflation Factor 2 3 3 F Projected Growth For Period 1 15 9 Projected Annual Growth 1 3 4 Inflation Factor 3 0 Projected Annual Gr
18. Values A sample share valuation including all input and results values is shown in the next section Page 51 ShareMaestro User Manual SAMPLE SHARE VALUATION rU n ShareMaestro System ShareMaestro Limited S h are Va u atio n pn 5 Year Investment Period Date 08 03 2009 20 48 41 Share ID Share iD A090502Feb Valuation Description sample share core valuation INPUT DATA RESULTS DATA Valuation Date 05022009 1 Current Net Dividend 4 81 Current Share Price 263 Inflation Factor 5 0 Current Net Dividend Yield 4 83 implied Average inflation for Period 4 7 Current FTSE100 Net Dividend i 4 82 Implied End Period inflation 3 4 Inflation Factor 1 1 7 Actual Dividend Growth Rate pa 14 2 Inflation Factor 2 0 Projected Growth For Period 1 84 Bulk Upload Share ID Projected Annual Growth 1 2389 3 Inflation Factor 4 0 Projected Annual Growth 2 12 34 Current Net Dividend Yield For 2208 Projected End Period Share Value 435 7 Sector 2 99 Risk Premium a Projected Share Annual Growth 10 6 Value As Current Price 1 39 i Real Dividend Growth Rate pa 12 3 Redemption Yield p a 5 yr Current Share Instrinsic Value cits 2 81 366 3 i Created Date Amended Date New Report Non Bulk Ext Report Bulk Valuation Valuations Valuations inbox mi Ul ShareMae 2 Share v lt firefox E Microsoft E Sp
19. and Page 35 ShareMaestro User Manual the FTSE 100 valuation is above 105 Using ShareMaestro FTSE 100 valuations To maintain integrity in calculating the track record for this strategy the long term average of 2 annual real dividend growth has been used The weekly data file may use a best estimate for the prospective five year real dividend growth rate which differs from 2 If clients wish to use the long term rate of 2 or their own choice of growth rate they can easily recalculate the valuation by inputting this figure in the Real Dividend Growth Rate pa input field instead of the rate used in the weekly data file if this is different It is easy to determine what price the FTSE 100 needs to reach between the weekly valuations to hit a critical valuation point for this strategy Cell BH65 of the weekly valuation spreadsheet shows the price at which the FTSE 100 would reach a valuation of 105 Risk warning This is a high risk potentially high reward strategy and is not for the fainthearted You should take appropriate professional advice before making any investment Future performance may not reflect past performance and ShareMaestro Limited takes no responsibility for any losses which you may incur ShareMaestro valuations do not constitute investment advice from ShareMaestro Limited This strategy is designed for long term investment at least 5 years as high losses can be incurred in the short term On three oc
20. be kept on hold for lengthy periods on a premium rate telephone help line If you have a customer service or product query please contact service sharemaestro co uk We aim to resolve your query as soon as possible In the unlikely event that we cannot resolve your query by email we will request your contact telephone number and call you at our expense If you would like us to call you please email your telephone number UK landlines only the best times to call you and the subject of your query Please note that we cannot provide investment advice Our business address is ShareMaestro Limited Hatchetts Westerham Road Limpsfield Surrey RH8 OSW It is recommended that for expedited query resolution you use email rather than post Page 65
21. corporate prospects and so you need to use your own judgement using your knowledge and research Publications such as the Investors Chronicle Shares Magazine and the Financial Times provide comment on the results and prospects of UK companies These comments provide context to the dry accounting figures Unadjusted End period share dividend yield column AR There is a strong though not exact relationship between dividend yield and dividend cover The lower the dividend cover earnings per share dividend per share the higher the dividend yield as the market price falls to reflect the reduced prospects for the dividend flow The automated calculation of this input value adjusts the current FTSE 100 dividend yield 96 by the ratio of the final broker forecast year 2 or 3 years time dividend cover to the target dividend cover for the particular share To get the final adjusted end period dividend yield for the share this unadjusted dividend yield is adjusted by the projected change from the current FTSE 100 dividend yield to the forecast end period FTSE 100 dividend yield which is calculated by ShareMaestro You can amend the automated calculation of this input value in one of two ways Change the pre populated target dividend cover in cell B38 This will change the valuations of all shares A dividend cover of at least 2 0 is normally regarded as necessary to protect the dividend Alternatively you can override the automated inp
22. dividend For example in 2010 when BP ceased paying a quarterly dividend as a result of the Gulf of Mexico disaster it was still quoted as having a current dividend because dividends paid in quarters before the suspension of the dividend were still included in the calculation Page 29 ShareMaestro User Manual Investigate a very high dividend yield If a company s dividend yield is say double that of the FTSE 100 it is generally a sign that the market expects the dividend to be cut or at the very least remain static in the future If the consensus broker forecasts project increasing dividends you should be very cautious For example at the beginning of March 2009 a FTSE 100 insurance company was valued at 520 of the current market price Inspection of the data underlying this valuation revealed that the share not only had a dividend yield of 18 8 but the broker consensus forecast expected the dividend to increase by 11 in the next 3 years and to be covered a generous 2 6 times in 3 years time Normally when a dividend yield is over triple the market average this indicates prospective bad news for the company e g that the dividend will be cut or that profits will plunge or both Either the share really is incredibly good value or the market knows something which has not yet been reflected in the consensus broker forecasts You need to conduct further research to discover the truth before making any investment 2 days after the va
23. future changes to the incorporated economic factors interest rates and inflation the facility to fill missing input values with your own assumptions so that missing share valuations can be produced standard Excel functionality to store and print valuations and to find particular shares rapidly the potential for this spreadsheet to be used on non Windows platforms we will monitor this Page 15 ShareMaestro User Manual NAVIGATING THE SPREADSHEET Navigating the spreadsheet is easy Use the right hand vertical scroll button to move the rows up and down Use the bottom horizontal scroll button to move the columns from side to side The spreadsheet contains both input fields and results fields The contents of each of these fields are described in the following sections of this chapter The first rows contain common input data which are used in the valuation of all shares and the FTSE 100 column B The valuation of the FTSE 100 follows row 65 and after that share valuations sorted from worst value to best value rows 66 on Finally there follow the shares for which valuations could not be produced because some of the specific share data was missing You can input your own values for the missing data to create valuations for the shares see below Definitions of the values given in each input and results field are provided at the end of this section To jump to a particular share you can you the Excel Edit Find
24. is only suitable for investment horizons of at least three years since market fear can generate losses on some of the contracts That said providing the incorporated broker forecasts for dividends and earnings prove reasonably accurate ShareMaestro s most highly valued shares will often outperform the market within a year those shares with the highest percentage valuation to market price from the weekly ShareMaestro bulk valuation run which have passed the review process Page 8 ShareMaestro User Manual THE SHAREMAESTRO TRACK RECORD Updated information on the ShareMaestro track record is available from the website at www sharemaestro co uk Use the Track Record menu tab FTSE 100 Using the default values of 10 for Risk Premium and 2 p a for real dividend growth together with the 105 95 buy sell spread Since 1984 a ShareMaestro buy signal has always delivered a profit upon the subsequent sell signal ShareMaestro has correctly predicted the major impending FTSE 100 crashes since the start of the FTSE 100 in 1984 see website Since 1984 the cumulative capital gain for periods when ShareMaestro signaled investment in the FTSE 100 has been 94 times greater than the capital gain for periods when ShareMaestro signaled disinvestment from the FTS100 even though the total period of disinvestment has been slightly longer 11 3 years v 11 1 years Performance of FTSE 100 when buy signals indicated invest
25. of holding equities than gilts ShareMaestro uses the Risk Premium to reduce the valuation of the FTSE 100 or individual share The valuation pre Risk Premium is multiplied by a fraction of which 100 is the numerator and 100 Risk Premium is the denominator The premium will be higher for individual shares than the default 10 for the FTSE 100 where there is less risk through the diversification of holding many shares For the FTSE 100 the default risk premium of 10 has been based on past experience This can be overridden if you believe that a different figure is more appropriate for a specific period e g increase it in times of extreme uncertainty Real Dividend Growth Rate p a The Real Dividend Growth Rate p a is the projected underlying annual dividend growth rate excluding inflation In recent years this has averaged around 2 p a for the FTSE 100 but is unlikely to average as much as that for the foreseeable future given the likely depth and duration of the recession You should enter your chosen value On 21 March 2009 The Daily Telegraph said that UK dividends were forecast to be cut by 30 in the coming year Even assuming that they grow by 2 p a real thereafter this implies a compound negative real growth rate of 5 4 p a for the next 5 years By Oct 09 this had reduced to 2 4 p a because of reductions which have already occurred Redemption Yield p a 5 yr Gilts For Interest Rates Gro
26. provides an easy independent and unbiased system for you to value UK shares You can easily use your own assumptions to produce the valuations HOW SHAREMAESTRO WORKS When you invest in a share or index your return on investment will come from two sources e The price at which you sell e The dividends which you receive while holding the share ShareMaestro uses a 5 year investment period to allow sufficient time for growth companies to grow and for bubbles to burst This period has also proved reliable for valuing shares Stock markets always look forwards rather than backwards Shares are valued according to future prospects rather than on the basis of past performance the stock market is a forward looking discounting mechanism Simon Thompson Trading Secrets 2009 ShareMaestro calculates the current value of a share through applying logical calculations to the fundamental factors which determine that value 1 The future price of the share in 5 year s time is calculated 2 The accumulated value of reinvested dividends is calculated and added to this price to determine the future value of the investment 3 The future value of the investment is discounted by the Risk Premium which compensates for the risk of holding the share instead of a virtually risk free gilt 4 The resulting risk adjusted future value is discounted back to today s value using as a discount rate the current return on a 5 year gilt if held
27. using an exclusive proprietary system for share valuation ShareMaestro is extremely easy to use and this manual guides you every step of the way The new weekly valuation spreadsheet covers both the FTSE 100 and shares in the FTSE All Share index The shares are sorted in order from worst value to best value This manual also includes exclusive extensively researched strategies to help you maximise your investment returns Investing in the stockmarket involves risk With ShareMaestro you can reduce the risk and stack the odds in your favour WHY SHAREMAESTRO WORKS ShareMaestro works because the market is inefficient Short term stock market performance is driven by two emotions fear and greed Share prices can be driven by greed to unjustifiable peaks When the greed evaporates and is replaced by fear the prices crash These excess peaks and troughs present investment opportunities for the intelligent informed investor ShareMaestro takes emotion out of the equation by calculating rationally what shares are really worth Sooner or later share prices which have been pushed to extremes will revert to their true values Psychologically even when prices reach extremes human nature invents reasons to justify the peak prices especially if this confirms the view of the herd ShareMaestro provides a welcome reality check and highlights areas of great profit potential Recent history shows the fear greed syndrome at work At t
28. values FTSE 100 Dividend Yield 3 52 Average Inflation Rate for period 2 80 End period inflation rate 3 21 Redemption Yield 5 year Gilts 1 62 Real Dividend Growth Rate p a assessed 0 00 Risk Premium default 10 00 These input values produce an intrinsic value for the FTSE 100 of 7856 4 You think that 5 year gilt rates will increase to 5 0 when quantitative easing stops but you think inflation rates will stay as projected So you change the gilt rate value in cell B29 to 5 0 This would reduce the current intrinsic value of the FTSE 100 by 14 1 6670 7 This isa sharp reduction in value That is why markets have been so nervous about the end of QE However you also think that the FTSE 100 real dividend growth rate will have reverted to its long term average of 2 p a So you also change the value in cell AT65 to 2 0 This changes the FTSE 100 intrinsic value to 7365 REVIEWING AND FINE TUNING SHARE VALUATIONS You should never take ShareMaestro share valuations at face value Sometimes specific share valuations are false because for example consensus broker forecasts have not caught up with a rapid deterioration in the condition of the company After preparing a shortlist of shares in which you are interested you should undertake the following checks to ensure that the projected dividend flow will not be under threat Only after making these checks should you make any investment decisions Ideally you should also read the financial
29. weekly valuation as other factors might change to change this price Column BH PRICE FOR 105 VALUATION the price to which the market price would have to reach to produce a 105 valuation This calculated price should only be used for strategic valuation targets between weekly valuations It should be rechecked at each weekly valuation as other factors might change to change this price Column BI PRICE FOR 115 VALUATION the price to which the market price would have to reach to produce a 115 valuation This calculated price should only be used for strategic valuation targets between weekly valuations It should be rechecked at each weekly valuation as other factors might change to change this price Column BN PROJECTED ANNUAL GROWTH the projected compound annual growth of the investment over the five year period including dividends taxed at the basic rate of tax It does not include any reduction in the investment for either capital gains tax or the risk premium Column BZ PROJECTED PERSONAL INVESTMENT VALUE the projected personal investment value at the end of the five year investment period taking into account your inputs for any higher rate tax capital gains tax and personal risk premium PRP Column CA PROJECTED PERSONAL INVESTMENT VALUE Annual Growth the projected compound annual post tax growth of the investment derived by comparing the PROJECTED PERSONAL INVESTMENT VALUE with the current FTSE 100 or share price
30. whole portfolio if the FTSE 100 value falls below 95 or when the FTSE 100 is in freefall If the FTSE 100 falls significantly most UK shares will follow suit 9 Repeat the cycle from step 2 onwards when the FTSE 100 valuation next reaches 105 or when the freefall re entry signal occurs Potential advantages of this strategy you are more likely to avoid capital loss during market crashes you re enter the market only when it appears to be good value again you earn interest on cash when you are out of the market you invest in individual shares which you have assessed as good value the upside potential on an individual share is unlimited providing both the market and the share do not become overvalued o you should lock in much of the profit on a star performer in your portfolio even if the share falls significantly from its peak o you can limit the loss on an individual share to a maximum of your chosen stop loss percentage excluding dealing costs o you minimize the risk on the overall portfolio by diversifying the investment over 10 15 shares in different industrial sectors USING THE SHAREMAESTRO SOFTWARE The new weekly FTSE All Share spreadsheet provides valuations for the FTSE 100 and for all shares which have sufficient data to produce the valuations You can also edit these valuations Although you can still use this spreadsheet to generate bulk valuations in the ShareMaestro software you only need to use
31. wish to change your operating system or transfer your licence to another PC 8 To use ShareMaestro you must read all the Terms and Conditions use the scroll bar on the right to see all the text and click on the I Accept the ShareMaestro Terms and Conditions box When you have done this the Share Valuation and FTSE 100 Valuation boxes become active Click on the relevant box according to the type of valuation which you want to undertake ShareMaestro System ShareMaestro Limited ShareMaestro System ShareMaestro Limited Date 08 03 2009 13 49 36 TERMS AND CONDITIONS Use the scroll bar to read all the text ShareMaestro means any part of the ShareMaestro software and system including without limit its components and associated documentation such as the ShareMaestro User Manual To use ShareMaestro you must accept these Terms and Conditions by clicking on the Acceptance button below These Terms and Conditions constitute a legally binding contract Do not use ShareMaestro if you cannot accept these Terms and Conditions It is your responsibility to verify that you are legally entitled to use ShareMaestro in the jurisdiction to which you are subject The ShareMaestro licence entitles you only to personal use of ShareMaestro and does not entitle you to use ShareMaestro in any professional or advisory capacity The ShareMaestro licence does not entitle you to use ShareMaestro in any trustee or fiduciary capacity nor t
32. 00 Dividend Yield x 3 52 26 Inflation Factor 1 average inflation for perio 280 _27 Inflation Factor 2 2 39 28 End period inflation rate 29 Redemption Yield 5 year Gilts x 30 Personal Capital Gains Taz Rate x 31 Personal Extra HR Taz on Divs _32 Personal Risk Premium zx 36 Default real dividend growth rate 2 p a Editable values are shown in italics Column A Company Name Column B Company Sector the industrial sector in which the company is grouped by the Financial Times in share listings e g Banks Food Producers Column AN Share ID this is the short identifier for the company also referred to as the EPIC Column AP Current Share Price the closing market price at the date of the valuation Column AQ Current net dividend yield the dividend paid for the last year expressed as a percentage of the current share price Column AR Unadjusted end period dividend yield this value is calculated by adjusting the current FTSE 100 dividend yield 96 by the ratio of the final broker forecast year 2 or 3 years time share dividend cover to the target dividend cover see previous section Column AS Risk Premium the long term Risk Premium of the FTSE 100 has been established by our exclusive research to be 1096 The Risk Premium of a share is Page 23 12 0 125 310 96 51 277 231 36 130 ORR E EET pen 172 ag aR 5_ Default actual dividend growth rate X p a 3
33. 00 Investment Returns The projected annual return from a 5 year investment in the FTSE 100 is shown in cell BN65 This return is post basic rate tax and is not affected by the Risk Premium which is only used to calculate the current intrinsic value of the FTSE 100 If you wish to adjust this return for the impact of e Higher rate tax e Capital Gains Tax e Your own choice of Risk Premium Personal Risk Premium please refer to the section Using Personal Tax Rates and Personal Risk Premium PRP to Calculate Personal Investment Returns Having obtained your projected post tax personal investment return you can compare this return with the projected returns for alternative investment opportunities as described in the section Comparing Projected Returns with Alternative Investments This will aid investment decisions SHARE VALUATIONS The weekly spreadsheet gives automated valuations for shares in the FTSE All Share index Various types of information are given in the results fields of which one of the most important is in column BF Value as of Current Price Shares are shown ranked by this value from lowest to highest You can simply run a share portfolio from the automated valuations by e Following the steps recommended in the section Reviewing and Fine tuning share valuations Page 17 ShareMaestro User Manual e Implementing the principles recommended in the section Running and Effective Share Portfolio I
34. 55 ShareMaestro User Manual Creating a file of share data from ShareScope via ShareScript 1 Create and save ShareScope portfolio of the shares you wish to value You can create a portfolio of selected shares or of all the shares in indices such as the FTSE 100 FTSE250 and the FTSE All Share Open the ShareScript console via the View menu In the command box at the bottom of the console type or copy and paste using CTRL V load ShareMaestro ss ShareMaestro ExportData Press Enter and an Export to ShareMaestro box will appear Select the portfolio for which you wish to export the data and press OK The output file will be labelled ShareMaestro csv and will be stored in the ShareScope ShareScript Output directory Locate this file and save it as an Excel file under the name and directory of your choice You now have the share data to populate the ShareMaestro bulk valuation spreadsheet Populating the ShareMaestro Bulk Share Valuation ShareScope Data via ShareScript spreadsheet 1 3 Download the spreadsheet entitled ShareMaestro Bulk Share Valuation Template ShareScope Data via ShareScript from the Resource Centre of the ShareMaestro website and save it in a location of your choice Open this spreadsheet as Read Only For subsequent valuations always use the original spreadsheet and open as Read only to prevent any data contamination from previous valuations Enter the common static data
35. 80 41 2 SHARE SPECIFIC DATA 58 be can accent no responsibilty Kor the accuracy of data whioh is supplied hy hid parties INPUT DATA RESULTS 58 Lise atintounation som ShareMsestro is subject to the ShareMsestro terms and conditions B0 whist are available the Sbarelsestro wehsite at ew sharemsestra ca uk ShareMsestro Fectualdste Factual date Assessed data Assessed gata Assessed data Act B1 vabetions danat constitute Investment advice Som ShareMsestro Limited Factual csts Current shar Current net Unadjusted end Risk Real Dividend Current Div 62 COMPANY NAME SECTOR Share ID rice dividend X gield period div gield Premium Growth Rate X p a Net Dividend Gra 2341 17 _67 15 45 83 317 ShareMaestro User Manual determined from its volatility in relation to the volatility of the FTSE 100 beta with a minimum value of 15 The Risk Premium compensates for the greater risk of investing in equities rather than in fixed rate cash In ShareMaestro the Risk Premium reduces the final investment value in year 5 by 100 100 Risk Premium see previous section Column AT Real Dividend Growth Rate a Real Dividend Growth Rate is derived by calculating the annual compound dividend growth rate from the current dividend to the final year dividend in the five year investment period and stripping out inflation The growth rate may be positive or negative see previous section DIRECTORY OF RESULTS AR22 X f
36. Comparing Projected Returns with Alternative Investments The above projected growth rates and values are not inflation adjusted The intrinsic valuations produced by ShareMaestro are measurements of the current value of the shares FTSE 100 If a share is shown to be say 20 undervalued and reverts to fair value within a year an early healthy profit will be achieved without having to be invested for the full 5 years GETTING STARTED SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS The following requirements are needed to operate ShareMaestro 1 PC connected to the internet preferably by broadband 2 Windows XP Vista Windows 7 Windows 8 not touch screen or Windows for Mac operating system 3 Atleast 25 megabytes of hard drive space 4 Adobe Acrobat reader available free from the Adobe website to read the User Manual 5 Excel Viewer available free from the Microsoft website http www microsoft com en us download search aspx q viewer to view the weekly ShareMaestro FTSE All Share Valuation spreadsheet 6 Excel 2003 onwards to view and edit the weekly ShareMaestro FTSE All Share Valuation spreadsheet or to use the ShareMaestro bulk valuation software ACCESSING THE SHAREMAESTRO FTSE ALL SHARE VALUATION SPREADSHEET The spreadsheet is available from a private page of the ShareMaestro website To access the page you need to enter a User ID and password which you will be advised in your joining instructions together with the web address of th
37. E 100 valuation percentage to market price FTSE 250 EXCHANGE TRADED FUND INVESTMENT STRATEGY You can use the FTSE 100 buy and sell signals to pursue the same strategy as the above FTSE 100 investment strategy but by investing in a FTSE 250 ETF instead The ups and downs of the FTSE 250 price closely follow those of the FTSE 100 although the magnitude Page 32 ShareMaestro User Manual of the FTSE 250 price movements has historically been greater There is at least one FTSE 250 ETF available i Shares Historically the upward price trend of the FTSE 250 has been a lot stronger than that of the FTSE 100 So if this trend continues in the future you should make much greater investment gains by following a FTSE 250 ETF strategy Between the start of 1994 and the end of 2013 the price of the FTSE 250 increased by 31496 whereas the price of the FTSE 100 increased by 9896 In other words the capital growth of the FTSE 250 was triple that of the FTSE 100 Both these increases exclude the benefit of reinvested dividends FTSE 100 SPREAD BET INVESTMENT STRATEGY Outstanding growth This outstandingly successful strategy has delivered a compound annual return of 28 896 From the start of 1984 to December 2013 1000 invested in 1984 would have grown to over 1 977 085 by 20 December 2013 These returns are considerably higher than those achieved by any UK equity fund over the same periods Furthermore all the capital growth would be free o
38. SE 100 EXCHANGE TRADED FUND INVESTMENT STRATEGY e eeeeeee sette eee nete ttnnnnn 32 FTSE 250 EXCHANGE TRADED FUND INVESTMENT STRATEGY ceres seen eee nnne ntnennn 32 FTSE 100 SPREAD BET INVESTMENT STRATEGY 4 eeeeeeeee seen entente ens attn sse tns sets setas sensu 33 OUTSTANDING GROWTH cesset e pente eue eee US ERESRERENE US OR e NS e Eee ERE Ve eR ep ERAS 33 HOW SPREADS BET WORK c 33 EXECUTING THE STRATEGY IN DETAIL 27 5 STOP LOSS cccccccccccccceccecceeeeeccececeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeseeeseseeeeeeeeeeeees 33 WHEN THE MARKET IS IN FREEFALL 3s csseatssnsaccsseceesnndensacevinavovdesevracnsnegevsdevetrnensteyevedySouraenssegssecpoanenkatecs seas 35 USING SHAREMAESTRO FTSE 100 VALUATIONS ccccccessecesssceseeesseecsseeceseesesescesseeesseecesseseeesesseeesseeesanens 36 RISK WARNING MEM 36 RUNNING AN EFFECTIVE SHARE PORTFOLIO 2 1 0 0 cccssssssescscecssceesssecscsessssesescesenssesssssescessonsseones 37 POTENTIAL ADVANTAGES OF THIS STRATEGY ceeeeeeeeeeeee eene een een 38 USING THE SHAREMAESTRO 38 SINGLE MANUAL VALUATION OF THE FTSE 100 nennen eee eene 39 INPUTTING DATA m 40 Input Fields An order Of tee t
39. ShareMaestro Version 3 0 User Manual SHAREMAESTRO LIMITED February 2014 ShareMaestro User Manual TABLE OF CONTENTS To move directly to a chapter click on the chapter heading Click on bold blue links to move directly to a section of the manual or to a website UNLEASH THE POWER OF SHAREMAES TRO 0 ccssscssscsssecssserscseesssessseseesssscnssesssssssssessnsssssesseneee 5 WHY SHAREMAESTRO WORKS sesssesssesseeessessoesooesooeseoesosesosesocesoeesoeesosesoeesoeesoeeseeesoeeseeeseeeseeeoeesoeesoeesoeesoe 5 HOW SHAREMAESTRO WORKS sssccssscsssecssserssssesssessssseesscecnssersssssnssessnsssesssscnssesscsssnssessnsssescssenesee 6 WHEN TO BUY AND SELL wu 7 TS OO e 7 SHARES HEUS du UII 7 THE SHAREMAESTRO INVESTMENT HORIZON eene enses setas etna teens setas setas 8 THE SHAREMAESTRO TRACK RECORD ceres esee eee 9 EISE WOO tes nn ee Obi pte enti sehen ieee e n i e ERE e eh o e egt 9 FTSE 100 ETF Strategy RE E EAEE Enn eS 10 FTSE 100 Spread Bet Strategy ea nenene 10 SHEA REIS DEEP 10 PROJECTED INVESTMENT RETURNG sscccssscssscsssecssserscssessssscnssessssecncsessnsesssessonssessssesnssssonsssen
40. The valuation screen will appear and you should follow the procedures described in the section EDITING VALUATIONS AND DUPLICATE VALUATIONS Updating individual share valuations between the valuation dates of the weekly prepopulated FTSE All Share spreadsheets There will normally be a week between these valuation dates The Current Intrinsic Share value is unlikely to change much during this period unless there has been major company news an announcement of results or a significant change in market or economic circumstances However the Value as a of Current Price will change according to changes in the share price LOADING CUSTOMISED BULK VALUATION SHARE DATA VIA SHARESCRIPT This is an automated process to download share specific data for selected shares onto a ShareMaestro bulk share valuation spreadsheet It is available to users of ShareScope Plus and ShareScope Pro The instructions below assume a knowledge of the ShareScope functionality Preparing your system for the ShareScript loading routine You only need to perform this operation once 1 Download the ShareMaestro ShareScript file from the Resource Centre of the ShareMaestro website www sharemaestro co uk It is labelled ShareMaestro ss Save it to a convenient location such as Desktop 2 Copy the script to your ShareScope ShareScript directory Please note that this ShareScipt file must be located in the main ShareScript directory and not in a sub directory Page
41. Valuation window by clicking on the Report Bulk Valuations button This will give you access to the standard Excel facilities such as Printing and Data Sorting So for example you can sort the report in order of Value as of Current share Price or analyze sector performance 3 You can produce an Excel report of a single valuation by selecting the valuation ID in the Bulk Upload Share ID window and clicking on Report Current Valuation EDITING VALUATIONS AND DUPLICATE VALUATIONS 1 You can edit any share in the bulk valuation run by selecting its ID in the Bulk Valuation window clicking on the Edit button changing the input field s you wish to change and Clicking on Calculate to see the revised valuation 2 If you wish to save the revised valuation Click on the Save button toggled from the Edit button A Duplicate Valuation screen will appear asking whether you wish to overwrite the existing valuation or add the valuation as a new valuation If you click on Add as New the new valuation will appear in the top Share ID window with a suffix 001 etc added to the original share ID The original valuation will remain in the Bulk Valuation window 4 If you click on Overwrite the original valuation will disappear from the Bulk Valuation window and the new valuation will appear in the top Share ID window under the original share ID without the suffix 5 f you process a bulk upload of shares with the same share IDs and valuati
42. a risk premium of 35 If the drop had been 70 the overall risk premium would be capped at 75 Real Dividend Growth Rate p a column AT This is the projected compound real dividend growth rate p a over the 5 year investment period Real dividend growth prospects are much harder to forecast for individual companies than for overall indices The real dividend growth rate is the most important assessed input value for calculating the share value The automated calculation of share value bases the dividend growth rate on consensus broker forecasts for the specific share Our research has shown that where these forecasts prove to be accurate the best value shares on average outperform the market by more than 20 over the next two years You can change the automated calculation of the real dividend growth rate for a particular share in two ways Firstly you can override the default annual real share dividend growth rate shown in cell B36 This value is used in conjunction with the projected average inflation rate to calculate dividend growth for years four and five of the forecast for which consensus broker forecast information is not available Please note that changing the default annual real share dividend growth rate will change the valuations of all shares If you are reviewing another share valuation you will need to change the default figure to what you think is appropriate for that share Alternatively you can override the calc
43. ange in price Michael Page 17 7 Aveva 9 3 Inmarsat 28 4 Unite 43 4 Tullow Oil 33 1 Fresnillo 62 8 Shaftesbury 9 2 Derwent 13 3 ARM 37 6 Capital amp Counties Properties 34 5 Average change 7 9 PROJECTED INVESTMENT RETURNS In addition to producing current intrinsic valuations for the FTSE 100 and for individual UK shares the weekly ShareMaestro FTSE All Share valuation spreadsheet provides information on the projected investment returns which these valuations would produce over the 5 year investment period Projected compound annual growth in the investment value including reinvested dividends taxed at the basic rate of tax Projected post tax annual percent growth the investment value taking into account your own personal marginal income tax and capital gains tax rates The option of calculating your personal projected post tax annual percentage growth in the investment value incorporating your own choice of personal risk premium The risk premium is the margin of safety which you wish to incorporate to take account of the uncertainty of the projected retums This personal risk premium is likely to be higher for individual shares than for the FTSE 100 Page 11 ShareMaestro User Manual Using these projected returns you can decide whether investment in the FTSE 100 or ina selected share is likely to provide you with a better annual post tax return than investing for example in fixed rate cash see
44. ars 12 10479 0 02 40 33 214 171283 4051 335 1 Up to5 1 266 922 0 05 4035 211 168014 076 443 2 5 10 years 5 155 50 0 16 40 93 279 1881 37 093 4221 2 Over 5 years 10 32111 051 41 83 493 2077 46 239 722 3 10 15 years 4 169 92 0 25 121 3 26 2041 56 121 4223 3 5 15 years 5 293 18 0 29 137 308 1884 99 170 45 45 4 5 15 years 9 159 553 0 20 105 291 192589 105 4225 4 Over 15 years 5 355 90 0 85 258 846 2315 48 43 53 1057 5 Over 15 years 7 22239 0 52 41 98 001 222375 198 465 5 Al stocks 11 31243 0 47 41 67 457 202493 4221 687 6 Irredeemables 1 34481 0 81 2 69 42 06 2847 17 269 637 7 All stocks 29 151 25 0 24 4108 169 191990 114 4344 Inflation 0 Inflation 5 Yield indices Aug 2 Aug 1 Yr ago Real yield Aug 2 Dur yrs Aug 1 Yr ago Aug 2 Dur yrs Aug 1 Yr ago 2 5 yrs 474 472 4 30 Up to 5 yrs 2 48 271 2 46 2 12 1 49 271 1 47 1 38 10 4 65 4 63 4 37 Over 5 yrs 150 1228 1 46 1 76 1 30 12 45 1 26 1 54 5 15 M 454 451 4 39 5 15 yrs 1 83 8 27 1 80 1 88 1 52 8 31 1 49 1 58 Ei 20 yl 444 440 4 39 Over 15 yrs 1 27 19 28 1 23 1 64 115 19 44 110 1 49 432 4 28 441 All Stocks 152 1160 1 48 177 1 31 1177 126 1 53 Stocks ith 0 1 year to maturity are excluded from the yield amp duration indices Copyright FTSE Intemational 2006 Comments i4 4 gt LB Unknown Zone Bo http specials 2 Microsoft L
45. as you have bought it it will be sold as soon as the price falls below 75p The level of stop loss set depends on your attitude to risk An initial low stop loss percentage see 12 will limit the amount you can lose on any share but it could also limit potential gains through shares being sold too early If you have more appetite for risk you could set an initial stop loss percentage of between 20 and 25 6 Review progress Monitor the portfolio at least weekly and sell any shares for which the trailing stop loss value is triggered or whose ShareMaestro valuation falls below Page 37 ShareMaestro User Manual 95 Renew any trailing stop loss positions before they expire Also keep abreast of any news which might affect the company share prices You do not have to follow the strategy robotically For example by using ShareMaestro s powerful what if functionality you may decide to take early action on an individual share You may also take your own view about the impact of major news affecting a company E g if you believe that a takeover bid is going to be successful and the bid price is higher than the market price you may decide to hold the share until the bid price is received 7 Replace any sold shares with new shares which meet the original selection criteria Providing the ShareMaestro FTSE 100 valuation remains above 105 If not retain in cash the proceeds of sale until the valuation reaches 105 8 Consider selling the
46. broadsheet newspapers All these publications have on line versions Company news can also be found via the Digital Look and ShareScope services mentioned above Page 61 ShareMaestro User Manual APPENDIX 2 SHAREMAESTRO TERMS AND CONDITIONS The ShareMaestro software prompts you to accept the ShareMaestro terms and conditions before you can use ShareMaestro By opening and or downloading the weekly bulk share valuation spreadsheet from the ShareMaestro website you are also accepting these terms and conditions The latest terms and conditions are available from the ShareMaestro website ShareMaestro means any part of the ShareMaestro software system and weekly valuation spreadsheet including without limit its components and associated documentation such as the ShareMaestro User Manual To use ShareMaestro you must accept these Terms and Conditions which constitute a legally binding contract Do not use ShareMaestro if you cannot accept these Terms and Conditions It is your responsibility to verify that you are legally entitled to use ShareMaestro in the jurisdiction to which you are subject The ShareMaestro licence entitles you only to personal use of ShareMaestro and does not entitle you to use ShareMaestro in any professional or advisory capacity The ShareMaestro licence does not entitle you to use ShareMaestro in any trustee or fiduciary capacity nor to use ShareMaestro in any way on behalf of other individuals or organisations
47. casions since 1984 two stop losses have occurred in succession It would be little comfort to a risk averse short term investor who bailed out after the second stop loss by which time the total fund will have fallen in value by nearly 48 that the losses were more than recovered subsequently You may also be fully invested in cash for a long period if the FTSE 100 remains overpriced for a long period The gearing on the total investment which this strategy uses is approximately 7 times the contract price movement The contract price is linked to the FTSE 100 price with an adjustment for interest costs avoided and dividend income foregone compared with investing in the cash FTSE 100 e g through an ETF This means that any percentage price movement in the FTSE 100 spread bet contract will be magnified approximately 7 times in your total investment up or down It only needs a fall in the contract sale price by 3 93 compared with your contract buy price for the trade to be stopped out and the loss on your total investment to be 27 5 That is why quite a few trades in the track record have been stopped out on the other hand the gains on the profitable trades have been correspondingly magnified If you want to reduce your short term risk at the expense of reducing the profit on profitable trades you can reduce the gearing which you employ by reducing the number of per point which you bet Replace 7 by your chosen level of gearing in the for
48. command You can edit each assessed input value with your own values This facility includes both common input data and share specific input data Examples of this editing are given below Cells which you cannot edit are locked The calculated intrinsic values of shares and the percentages of those values to market prices are shown in columns BE and BF respectively Cell references For example B24 indicates the cell located at row 24 column B FTSE 100 VALUATION The weekly spreadsheet gives an automated valuation for the FTSE100 incorporating our best estimate for the key Real Dividend Growth Rate see below Various types of information are given in the results fields of which one of the most important is in column BF Value as of Current Price You simply can use this valuation to follow the FTSE 100 ETF investment strategy FTSE 100 Spread Bet Strategy or the FTSE250 ETF Investment Strategy all of which have very strong track records If you wish to override the best estimate for the Real Dividend Growth Rate with the long term average of 2 096 p a if this is different you can easily do this by overriding the input value in cell AT65 Input and Results Fields The contents of the input and results fields relating to the FTSE 100 valuation are described in detail in the sections Directory of Input Values and Directory of Results Editing FTSE100 Assessed Values The FTSE 100 valuation Row 65 incorporates two values which a
49. curacy of the data and exclude all liability for any loss or damage including indirect special or consequential loss or damage arising from the use of this data for any purpose including but not restricted to the production of share or index valuations whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission ShareMaestro Limited and its employees agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage including indirect special or consequential loss or damage arising from the downloading installation and use of ShareMaestro or from any information produced by ShareMaestro whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission Any liability of ShareMaestro Limited to you under this contract or otherwise is limited to the sum of charges paid by you to ShareMaestro Limited or to its authorised agents ShareMaestro Limited accepts no liability for your inability to use ShareMaestro as a result of technical problems with the computer environment including without limit hardware software communication links and third party services ShareMaestro Limited does not warrant that ShareMaestro is compatible with any computer system including hardware and software and third party services which you may use By providing links to other websites via the ShareMaestro User Manual ShareMaestro website or via the ShareMaestro Limited does not approve guarantee or endorse the content or products of these websites The terms a
50. e 4 12 you would enter 2 00 in the Inflation Factor 2 field 2 3 06 4 12 6 12 4 12 2 00 If Inflation Factor 1 were 1 45 and the figure from the fwd curve tab were 4 31 you would enter 1 41 a negative number in the Inflation Factor 2 field 2 1 45 4 31 2 90 4 31 1 41 When you have run the ShareMaestro valuation check that the figure in the Results Field Implied End Period Inflation equates to the value given in the 2 fwd curve tab If it does not there has been a mistake in your calculations The fields Inflation Factor 3 and Inflation Factor 4 are reserved for possible future use and should be left blank Page 44 RUNNING THE FTSE 100 VALUATION ShareMaestro User Manual After all data fields have been input the Calculate box on the valuation screen will become activated Here is an example using data for 30th December 1999 INPUT DATA Valuation Date 30121999 i Current FTSE100 Price 6930 2 i Current Net Dividend yield 2 04 inflationFactor1 38 i m onratr2 3 3 i inftationFactor3 0 1i inftationFactors O0 Risk Premium 10 I Real Dividend Growth Rate pa 2 i Redemption Yield p a 5 yr Gilts 6 09 i lt Created Date start inbox Mic oso Ul ShareMaestroU ShareMaestro Click on this button to calculate the FTSE 100 valuation FTSE ID FTSE100 ID 991230Dec i 030312Mar 991230Dec Valuati
51. e makes the following editing changes to the FTSE 100 valuation Increase projected end period inflation by 2 Increase projected average period inflation by 1 Increase the projected return of 5 year gilts by 2 Reduce the real dividend growth rate by 1 to 1 0 annually O O 0 0 The combined effect of these changes is to reduce the projected annual return to 3 8 After deducting 0 3 for annual management charges the annual return becomes 3 5 As this return is still 37 higher than the return on the cash investment the investor decides to invest in the FTSE 100 The FTSE 100 investment also has a further advantage over the cash investment it can be cashed in at any time and so sizeable profits can be seized when they occur This example assumes that no capital gains tax is payable on the FTSE 100 investment This tax is not payable for investments held in SIPP and ISAs there is also an annual tax free capital gains allowance for investments held outside these wrappers If you are liable to capital gains tax you can input your capital gains tax rate to find out the impact on the projected returns as described in the previous section TESTING THE IMPACT OF CHANGES TO THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT Uniquely ShareMaestro uses projected inflation rates and actual five year gilt redemption yields in calculating the intrinsic values of the FTSE 100 and individual shares The projected inflation rates are produced daily by the Bank of En
52. e private page The password is case sensitive When you have entered the private page double click where indicated to download the spreadsheet If you wish you can save this spreadsheet in a location of your choice The spreadsheet is updated every week By downloading the spreadsheet you are accepting the ShareMaestro terms and conditions Page 12 ShareMaestro User Manual INSTALLING SHAREMAESTRO SOFTWARE The weekly ShareMaestro FTSE All Share Valuation spreadsheet now provides most of the functions and more previously provided by the ShareMaestro software You only need to use the ShareMaestro software if you wish to use the ShareMaestro bulk share valuation function especially customized share selections if you are a ShareScope Plus or Pro client or to undertake single valuations To install the ShareMaestro software you should close all programs other than your internet connection and browser before installing ShareMaestro 1 Download the program zip file from the ShareMaestro website This will be named sharemaestroSetupdate zip e g sharemaestroSetup20090227 zip Choose to Save it to a convenient location e g Desktop rather than to Open it When the zip folder has downloaded double click on the zip folder to open it Double click on the ShareMaestroSetup msi XP Windows 7 and Windows 8 or ShareMaestro Setup icon Vista to launch the Windows installer package Follow the on screen instructions In Vista s
53. e year fixed rate cash yield post basic rate of tax However unlike the fixed return on five year fixed rate cash deposits the eventual return on FTSE 100 or share investment is determined by changes to the dividends payable and also by changes in the share prices You can use the unique features of ShareMaestro to stress test the projected returns against worst case scenarios These tests can include both changes to be assessed input values for the FTSE 100 share and also changes in the projected economic environment as described in the next section Example A basic rate taxpayer has 10 000 for long term investment The best 5 year fixed rate cash investment provides an annual post tax return of 2 5696 see above He considers alternatively investing in a FTSE 100 exchange trade fund ETF The current ShareMaestro projected post tax annual return for a 5 year FTSE 100 ETF investment is 6 3 From that return must be deducted annual management fees of around 0 3 So the net annual return becomes 6 0 This projected annual return is over double that of the cash investment Page 26 ShareMaestro User Manual The ShareMaestro projected return currently assumes an annual real dividend growth rate of 0 On the face of it the FTSE 100 investment wins hands down over the cash investment But the investor wishes to evaluate the potential downside risk of the FTSE 100 investment Using ShareMaestro s exclusive what if functionality h
54. elect Allow if you get a message that an unidentified program wants access to your computer LICENSING SHAREMAESTRO SOFTWARE Following successful installation select ShareMaestro from the All Programs list and click on the extension tab which includes the ShareMaestro logo On the first use of the program you will be presented with the licensing screen You must be connected to the internet to license ShareMaestro Enter in the boxes the User ID and password which you received by email following your subscription to ShareMaestro Press Enter or tab down after entering the password After a short interval you should see on the screen your name and the expiry date of your subscription If you have any problems please contact ShareMaestro customer service at service sharemaestro co uk Press Enter ShareMaestro and after a short pause you will be presented with the ShareMaestro Terms and Conditions screen If you cannot see a Terms and Conditions box to check or the Shares or FTSE100 screen buttons you pc is not displaying the whole ShareMaestro screen To solve this via Control Panel Display Settings set the display resolution to the highest possible or consult the manual for your monitor or laptop on how to adjust the display You will not need to enter your User ID and password for subsequent use of ShareMaestro Page 13 ShareMaestro User Manual 7 We will on request issue you with a new ID and password if you
55. ents will be advised of their specific user ID and password to access this page Double click where indicated on the page to open the spreadsheet Excel viewer which is available free from Microsoft via http www microsoft com en us download search aspx q viewer will enable viewing and printing only of the share valuations Excel 2003 onwards which is available for around 60 will additionally allow clients to edit the valuations and use other Excel functions The valuation spreadsheet includes the following major features gt valuations of the FTSE 100 and of shares in the FTSE All Share index showing their intrinsic value and percentage of value to current market price gt shares sorted from worst value to best value gt the prices required for the standard valuation buy and sell trigger points 105 and 95 to be reached gt projected investment returns post basic rate tax gt the facility to tailor post tax investment returns to your own dividend and capital gains tax rates the option to tailor returns incorporating your own personal risk premium or margin of safety gt ShareScope data including broker forecasts incorporated into the automated share valuations our best estimate of the key real dividend growth rate for the FTSE 100 the facility to revise valuations using your own assumptions for the assessed non factual input values the option to assess the impact on valuations of possible
56. es 11 GETTING STARTED 12 SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS a a a a E E 12 ACCESSING THE SHAREMAESTRO FTSE ALL SHARE VALUATION SPREADSHEET 12 INSTALLING SHAREMAESTRO SOFTWARE eese eee nennen nnne nennen ene 13 LICENSING SHAREMAESTRO SOFTWARE 13 USING THE WEEKLY VALUATION SPREADSHEEBLT cesse eese 15 NAVIGATING THE SPREADSHEET iien enne D GR 16 FISE T00 VALUATION Eee Re rats 16 Input and Results Fields 16 Editing FTSE100 Assessed 1 16 Adjusting the FTSE 100 valuation for potential changes to interest rates and inflation 17 Projected FTSE100 Investment Returns eese 17 SHARE VALUATIONS eade ene 17 EDITING ASSESSED VALUES eaan Pede ba Re ote pese s 18 Risk Premium 96 column AS 18 Real Dividend Growth Rate 96 p a column AT 19 Unadjusted End period share dividend yield 96 column 20 INPUTTING MISSING DATA TO CREATE VALUATIONS
57. estment fund e g unit trust or OEIC you do not know how the investments in the fund are going to perform In fact most funds underperform their benchmark index Some funds sparkle for a few years which are highlighted in their advertising but they then fizzle out Hardly any deliver consistent long term market beating performance What is certain however is that the costs and charges levied by the fund will substantially erode your long term savings The impact of fund management fees and charges will typically halve the value of your savings over 40 years compared with being your own fund manager In many instances the impact of fund manager costs will be much greater ShareMaestro is the ideal tool for managing your own UK funds and avoiding high fund management costs You can use any of the investment strategies described earlier in this manual You have the opportunity to transform your investment performance in three ways o Avoiding high fund management charges o Outperforming the market often by a wide margin o Increasing your chances of avoiding market crashes Page 59 ShareMaestro User Manual APPENDIX 1 INFORMATION SOURCES DATA SOURCES FOR SINGLE VALUATIONS The use of these sources covered in more detail elsewhere in this manual These sources are free although you may need to register with the website to obtain the information We suggest that you bookmark the web addresses for ease of use FSTE 100 valuation
58. f capital gains tax under current UK tax rules This track record has been based on the recreation of spread bet prices when actual spread bet prices have not been available Full details of all the elements behind the track record are available from http www sharemaestro co uk ShareMaestroFTSE 100SpreadBetStrategynew shtml This strategy powerfully combines the accuracy of ShareMaestro FTSE 100 valuations with the gearing of FTSE 100 spread bets To put it in a nutshell you only buy a FTSE 100 spread bet contract when it is probable that the price will increase This increase is magnified by the gearing of the spread bet contract At times when the ShareMaestro FTSE 100 valuation shows the FTSE 100 price to be poor value you keep all your money in interest earning cash The strategy uses a 27 596 stop loss so that a FTSE 100 spread bet contract is sold when the contract price has fallen to a level which represents a 27 5 loss on your total investment A gearing multiple of 7 is used How spreads bet work The FTSE100 spread bet prices are based on FTSE 100 futures contracts expiring on set dates in the future There is a spread bet buy price and a lower spread bet sell price The difference between the two prices around 0 1596 is the spread representing the profit margin of the spread betting firm You bet your chosen number of s for every point movement in the spread bet contract price You can set a stop loss so that your position
59. f previous valuations Click this box to do a new valuation ShareMaest gt Sys ShareMae tro Sys EN 58 5 13 5 The fields in this column are for input data The fields in this column display results Click on the 7 buttons to display information about each field for input data and for results Page 39 ShareMaestro User Manual You can create a new valuation You can also edit an existing valuation and recalculate to get a revised valuation Click on the buttons for each field to get information about the definition and source for each data field The displayed box for each input field also provides information about the acceptable value ranges for each input item If you input values outside these ranges an error message will be displayed INPUTTING DATA e Click on the New Valuation button This activates the input screen and populates the Risk Premium 9e field with the default input value of 10 This default value can be overridden see below e The input fields should be completed in sequence The details and sources for each input field are shown in the next section e f you use the default input values for the Risk Premium you only need to input seven data items to produce a FTSE 100 valuation These data items are available from readily accessible sources see below Page 40 ShareMaestro User Manual Input Fields in order of input Input Field Label
60. f you wish to adjust the valuations using your own assumptions the sections below explain how you can do this EDITING ASSESSED VALUES 58 data which is supplied by third parties INPUT DATA RESULTS 59 the ShareMaestro terms and conditions 60 at www sharemaestro co uk ShareMaestro Factual data Factual data Assessed data Assessed data Assessed data Actual 61 ShareMaestro Limited Factual data Current share Current net Unadjusted end Risk Real Dividend Current Dividend SECTOR Share ID rice dividend yield period div yield Premium Growth Rate p a Net Dividend Growth Rate D In producing a share valuation there are three share specific input values which are assessed rather than factual Risk Premium 96 Real Dividend Growth Rate 96 and Unadjusted End period Share Dividend Yield 96 The automated share valuation process uses various sources and methodologies to produce these input values as described below However you can if you wish input your own values to override these automated values You can override these 3 input values either in isolation or in combination with the other 2 values and also if you wish is combination with what if changes to the economic factors Risk Premium 96 column AS The Risk Premium compensates for the greater risk of holding equities than gilts where the return is guaranteed by the UK government if you hold the gilt to maturity ShareMaestro uses the Risk Premium to reduce
61. gland according to market expectations as shown from the trading prices of securities which are sensitive to inflation rates Of course both inflation rates and gilt yields can change You can test the impact of possible changes by overriding values of the relevant factors shown in the common input data section of the spreadsheet Average inflation rate over the five year period cell B26 Projected inflation rate at the end of the five year period cell B28 Gross annual redemption yield on five year gilts cell B29 If you change the projected average inflation rate by say 1 you would normally change the projected end period inflation rate by double this amount i e by 2 In normal circumstances you would also increase the redemption yield on five year gilts if you increase the projected inflation rates However at the time of writing the Bank of England has kept interest rates artificially low through quantitative easing QE So in the short term it is quite likely that rates will increase when quantitative easing is ceased without inflation increasing To counterbalance this the dividend growth rates may increase when quantitative easing has ceased because the Bank of England has stated that it will not end quantitative easing and increase interest rates until the prolonged recession is fully over Page 27 ShareMaestro User Manual Example Core Valuation of FTSE 100 on 29 November 2013 market price 6650 6 Input
62. he end of 1999 the FTSE 100 was driven by greed and by dot com fever up to nearly 7000 The ShareMaestro valuation was just 3942 Page 5 ShareMaestro User Manual In the next three and a quarter years the FTSE 100 duly crashed The index lost more than half of its value to less than 3300 By this stage the ShareMaestro valuation was 4957 Whilst greed had driven the FTSE 100 to unsustainable heights the subsequent fear which took over when the bubble burst drove the index too low lt Over the next few years the FTSE 100 soared as predicted by ShareMaestro and exceeded the trough valuation within 2 years Although the City employs many very bright fund managers and analysts who use complex quantitative techniques the herd instinct ensures that greed and fear still prevail Also as has been well documented in the press and highlighted by the City regulators many analysts at investment banks have been influenced in their share recommendations by their banks desire to win or preserve fee revenue from corporate clients In short their share recommendations have become tainted and unreliable At least two major investment banks have suffered multi million fines from the regulators for giving buy tips on shares which they knew were already overpriced Most fund managers fail to match the performance of their relevant benchmark index let alone beat it This explains the increasing popularity of index tracker funds ShareMaestro
63. hin ShareScope select the share press the shift key and then the key and the individual broker forecasts will appear With the bottom bar you can scroll through the figures for each year o Do the consensus figures accurately represent the individual forecasts o Whatis the latest dated forecast Is that significantly different from the earlier dated forecasts If so is there any recent news affecting the company which has changed the forecast do a web search on the company name or use other sources to view news on the company o Do several different forecasts contribute to the consensus or is it just drawn from one or two brokers o Is there a step change in the forecasts for future earnings and dividends compared with the last year s figures If so try and find out why e g were there exceptional items artificially inflating or deflating last year s figures or are Page 30 ShareMaestro User Manual there fundamental reasons explaining the anticipated step change in future figures o Bear in mind that brokers tend to overestimate the prospective growth rates for earnings and dividends HIGH BORROWING Heavy borrowing can threaten companies as interest costs eat into earnings It also increases risk as costs will sooner or later rise if interest rates rise A commonly used yardstick is the net gearing ratio This is calculated from total borrowings less cash divided by total equity capital and reserves A net gear
64. iep goed 41 tuere 42 Current FTSE 100 price and Current FTSE 100 Net Dividend 1 42 Redemption Yield p a 5syt Gillts iden eee et eR ees ied ei e ens a ex n t ox es eed crib washed 43 Using Bank of England market implied inflation rates eese nennen 44 RUNNING THE FTSE 100 VALUATIONY eese 45 Results Fields In Order Of Display eese eene enne nnne nnne 47 SAVING THE VALUATION HERREN EE GIO pe IR ER IR dengue Rise veh 48 EDITING THE VALUATION RR ERR IRE Ie 49 SINGLE SHARE MANUAL VALUATION ener nere enne 50 Differences Between the Input Fields Of The Share And FTSE 100 Valuation Systems 50 Current Share Price and the Current Net Dividend Yo Yield essen 51 SAMPLE SHARE VALUATION 54 du tp REPE e eaa aapa peo here Eee eRe Neaga cop 52 STRESS TESTING THE SHARE ener ener enne 53 USING THE BULK SHARE VALUATION FUNCTION essere nnne nennen 54 USING THE WEEKLY PREPOPULATED FTSE ALL SHARE SPREADSHEET eee 54 Running the weekly spreadsheet in ShareMaestro eese eene eene 54 Updating individual share valuations between the valuation dates of the weekl
65. ig Day s Euro Stig Stig Year Actual P E Xd adj Total Aug 2 chge Index Aug 1 Jul 31 ago yield Cover ratio Return FTSE 100 100 40 9 67839 58808 59283 53323 3 1G 2 49 12 69 123 80 3291 72 FTSE 250 250 0 5 107430 93447 93556 7675 4 24 2 44 16 87 141 21 5046 66 FTSE 250 ex Inv Co 220 0791 2 0 5 11197 1 9738 3 97456 7949 3 2 52 2 48 16 03 149 23 5320 48 FTSE 350 350 3063 3 0 8 3503 2 3038 3 3059 8 27174 3 06 2 49 13 16 61 37 3467 49 FTSE 350 ex Inv Co 320 3055 8 08 34946 30307 30523 2712 9 3 08 49 13 04 61 53 1776 71 2 FTSE 350 Higher Yield 100 3773 5 09 43154 3740 1 3765 1 3430 5 3 90 12 12 10 85 85 3914 11 FTSE 350 Lower Yield 250 2303 1 0 7 2633 8 2286 1 2303 3 1983 8 2 12 3 14 58 38 79 1968 41 E FTSE SmallCap 331 3377 52 01 3862 52 3373 68 3383 55 3062 33 1 97 26 49 41 71 3602 48 FTSE SmallCap ex Inv Co 236 3275 45 0 1 3745 79 3272 39 3277 98 3000 86 2 26 21 04 45 42 3572 69 4 FTSE All Share 681 3007 40 0 8 3439 24 2983 52 3004 28 2669 72 3 02 2 4 13 37 59 54 3451 44 t FTSE All Share ex Inv Co 556 2997 67 40 8 3428 12 2973 52 2994 32 2663 19 3 06 2 48 13 16 59 94 1773 51 FTSE All Share ex Multinationals 616 1098 73 0 7 1041 41 1090 62 1096 17 938 35 3 19 2 16 14 53 21 48 1361 19 8 FTSE Fledgling 264 3774 57 0 3 4316 58 3763 83 3764 14 3440 02 1 94 t t 41 42 5236 57 m FTSE Fledgling ex Inv Co 165 4542 87 0 4 5195 21 4524 02 4521 95 434418 2 20 t 53 78 6224 14 FTSE All Small 595 2242 04 0 1
66. ing ratio of over 50 is a cause for concern especially if interest cover is less than 2 Interest cover is profit before interest and tax divided by the interest charge CHECK THE CASHFLOW We suggest that you undertake this check only for shortlisted shares which have passed the other checks as the cashflow check takes a few minutes for each share since it involves referring to company accounts Cash is the lifeblood of the company and a company which does not generate sufficient cash will eventually come to a sticky end The purpose of the cashflow checks is to ensure that future dividends are not placed in jeopardy by cashflow starvation It is necessary to check cash rather than earnings since Dividends are paid out of cash not earnings Earnings include non cash items and can be manipulated to present a misleading picture of the state of the company Listed companies are required to provide cash flow information in their report and accounts The information required for the checks below is available from this source except for current market capitalisation which is available free from the fundamentals section of Digital Look amongst other sources Checks should be made against the data from the latest published financial year for the company Check 1 Check that Net Cashflow from Operating Activities exceeds Operating Profit Operating Profit is normally reduced by non cash items such as depreciation and amortisation If Operating
67. instructions This file is normally available for the close of the last UK trading day of the week by noon UK time on Saturday You can use this file to value all shares in the FTSE All Share index except equity investment instruments those with no dividends for the latest financial year and those with missing data Running the weekly spreadsheet in ShareMaestro When the file has downloaded open it and save it in a location of your choice To process the prepopulated bulk share valuation spreadsheet with the ShareMaestro software you should 1 Click on the Bulk Upload button on the ShareMaestro share valuation screen Page 54 ShareMaestro User Manual 2 Select and open the share data file from the window which appears 3 In the My Documents window which appears check that you have selected the correct file and then click on the Process File button 4 The bulk valuation will then proceed and you can view the progress in the bottom progress bar 5 When the bulk valuation has completed the share valuation screen will return with all the valued shares indexed individually in the left hand Bulk Upload window Each valuation ID consists of the EPIC followed by the valuation date from the data file 6 You should now review and if necessary edit the valuations You can edit individual valuations in ShareMaestro by clicking on the appropriate valuation ID share EPIC plus date in the left hand Bulk Upload share ID window
68. is automatically closed out when the sell price reaches a certain level For example at the start of the year you bet 3 per point when the FTSE 100 March contract buy price is 6500 and the sell price is 6490 Two months later the March sell price has increased by 100 points to 6590 You make a profit of 300 3 x 100 Conversely if the March sell price has fallen to 6390 you would have lost 300 Executing the strategy in detail 27 5 stop loss The strategy employs quarterly spread bet FTSE 100 futures contracts expiring on the third Friday of March June September and December Page 33 ShareMaestro User Manual Decide the overall amount you wish to invest and place this in a competitive high interest instant access cash account when this fund exceeds 85 000 you should have multiple accounts up to the 85 000 FSA compensation limit to minimise your risk of default by the deposit taker When the ShareMaestro FTSE 100 valuation reaches 105 or is currently above 105 if you are starting the strategy transfer 27 5 of this fund to your spread betting account and buy a quarterly FTSE 100 spread bet futures contract if the amount to transfer is in excess of your cash account s same day transfer limit you will need to transfer these funds in advance when the valuation is approaching 105 If you wish to maximise the interest you earn on your cash account and are prepared to make frequent cash transfers to your s
69. jection for year 3 the year 3 dividend is calculated by applying the year 2 projected dividend growth rate to the year 2 dividend 2 If there is no projection for year 3 dividend cover year 2 dividend cover is used as the latest available dividend cover projection 3 If key data is missing from the data import or if the latest future dividends are 0 the share will automatically be excluded from the bulk share valuation 4 On rare occasions Excel cannot calculate a compound growth rate from the range of numbers supplied If so that share will be automatically excluded from the bulk valuation 5 The Risk Premium is calculated from the beta of the share price in the same way as described in the individual share valuation section The beta for the ShareScript download is based on 250 trading days The main ShareScope beta is based on a much longer period 6 You can manually override any of the share data values in columns H to P to test different assumptions Differences from the valuations produced using ShareScript Data o The beta value is ShareScope s beta value based on the price performance over several years rather than over the last year Page 57 ShareMaestro User Manual VIEWING AND PRODUCING REPORTS FOR SHAREMAESTRO VALUATIONS 1 You can view an individual share valuation by selecting the share valuation ID in the Bulk Upload window 2 You can generate an Excel report for all the share valuations in the Bulk
70. k Premium to 25 337 Increase interest rates by 2 332 Increase end period inflation by 1 to 4 4 p a 348 and average period inflation by 0 5 to 2 2 All above four changes together 220 None of the changes individually produces a lower intrinsic value for the share than the current price Even all four changes together which is an extreme scenario in the short term produce a valuation which is only 16 lower than the current price So the case for investing in the share at the current price 263 remains pretty strong Page 53 ShareMaestro User Manual USING THE BULK SHARE VALUATION FUNCTION The new weekly bulk share valuation spreadsheet now incorporates share valuations and all the related information previously available from the ShareMaestro software You can also edit the share valuations to use your own assumptions When you have completed the edit save the file under a name different from the original and location of your choice You therefore only need to process this spreadsheet with the ShareMaestro bulk valuation software if you wish to use the features of this software If you are a ShareScope client Plus and Pro versions only you can use the ShareMaestro bulk valuation software to produce bulk valuations of selected share portfolios e g all shares in a particular industrial sector or shares on your watchlist To use the ShareMaestro bulk valuation software you must have Microsoft Excel versions 2003 onwa
71. l fund including the 72 5 retained on your instant access cash account is 5000 and the FTSE 100 contract buy price is 6000 the calculation of point is 7 5000 6000 35000 6000 5 83 Most spread betting firms will allow you to bet in pennies as well as per point but there will be a minimum bet size e g 3 per point Rounding the bet to the nearest will increase or reduce the gearing accordingly Place a stop loss price on your contract so that your contract is sold at a price which will limit your loss to 27 5 of your overall fund including the cash on your instant access account This stop loss price is calculated as follows Contract buy price 27 5 of your overall fund per point So for example if your overall fund is 5000 you want to limit your maximum loss to 27 5 of this fund i e 1375 Assume you are betting 5 83 per point and the contract buy price is 6000 The stop loss contract price would be calculated as follows 6000 1375 5 83 6000 235 85 5764 15 This would be rounded up to 5765 The stop loss used is a standard rather than trailing stop loss which measures the loss against the highest contract price achieved since the contract was bought In fast markets spread betting firms will not guarantee to execute your chosen stop loss price if you use a standard stop loss However for a small fee around 3 per per point bet you can place a guaranteed a
72. l what is often a vanity project for the Chief Executive or Chairperson A prime example was the takeover of ABN Amro by the Royal Bank of Scotland RIGHTS ISSUES Rights issues are generally not good news for shareholders They indicate that a company has not been able to generate sufficient cash flow to fund expansion or to cover its ongoing operating costs Although the discounted share price offered to shareholders appears superficially attractive the benefits are illusory since the increased number of shares in issue will dilute the dividend pot and hence the share price unless the money raised by the rights issue is very effectively used to increase the organic profitability of the company LOOK FOR BAD NEWS Review news stories affecting the company over the last year for any bad news which may affect the profitability of the company Such bad news can come in a variety of forms including for example loss of key contracts government action which will restrict either the markets revenue of the company or the emergence of a major new competitor CHECK THE CURRENT AND PROSPECTIVE DIVIDENDS ShareMaestro is a dividend based valuation system You should perform a number of checks to ensure that as far as possible the projected dividend flow is realistic Check that the current dividend and dividend yield is correct The current dividend and dividend yield is that paid over the last year Sometimes recent events will have overtaken this
73. lems outside the control of ShareMaestro Limited Investment in equities and stock markets involves risk Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance Stock markets are volatile and can be driven to extremes by fear and greed ShareMaestro valuations are dependent on the variable data which is input both actual market data and the judgement based factors ShareMaestro Limited accepts no liability for any inaccuracies in the information sources which are used to populate the input fields of ShareMaestro The ShareMaestro valuations will change according to changes in any of the input values including for example changes in the market conditions and changes in the assumptions about the prospects of dividend growth for the FTSE 100 and for individual companies The ShareMaestro valuations do not constitute any form of investment advice from ShareMaestro Limited Your specific needs investment objectives and financial situation need to be taken into account before making investment decisions You are strongly recommended to consult a qualified financial planner or investment advisor before acting on any information provided by ShareMaestro Any data made available to clients for downloading is for your personal non professional use only and should not be redistributed The data is provided as is ShareMaestro Limited and its employees agents authorised representatives and information service providers do not guarantee the ac
74. luation this insurance company cut its dividend to zero in the light of some poor investment decisions So the dividend yield instantly became 0 and the broker forecasts became meaningless Check the current dividend cover The dividend cover is calculated by dividing the earnings per share EPS by the dividend per share A ratio below 1 5 is normally a sign that the current dividend is in danger unless future earnings increase substantially Check the projected dividend growth If the dividend is forecast to drop from the current year in subsequent years this is a cause for concern Ideally you should be looking for an unbroken upward trend in dividend growth not just in the forecast but also for the past five years ShareScope provides the details of each broker s contribution to the consensus forecast plus the date each forecast was made There should normally be at least three brokers contributing to the forecast More weight should be attached to the most recent forecasts as they are more likely to take into account the most recent developments It is also worth checking that the figure given is a consensus figure for each year the forecast does actually equate to the consensus Sometimes there are calculation errors Finally be wary of a wide variation in forecasts between the brokers unless recent events have changed the landscape since the forecast was made Check the detail underpinning the consensus broker forecasts if possible Wit
75. lues can differ somewhat When setting a Risk Premium you should also take into account potential threats to the earnings of the company This is not an exact science Some factors to take into account are the Page 18 ShareMaestro User Manual fe e t track record on dividend payments exposure to political risks exposure to competitive risks recent record on profits and earnings threats and opportunities for the future quality of the company s management fe v fe V fe fe ko fe Essentially the Risk Premium is a measure of your confidence the projected sustainable dividend growth rate for the company see next section An alternative method to calculate the Risk Premium according to past volatility of earnings is as follows e Look at the earnings per share EPS figures for the past five years using Digital Look If there has been a steady increase in EPS for every year use 15 as the risk premium e If there has been a decline in any year find the biggest absolute fall over the period between one year and any subsequent year e Measure the percentage fall from the top to the bottom e Add this percentage fall to the 15 minimum risk premium up to a maximum of 75 to calculate the risk premium For example the biggest drop in EPS for share X over the last five years was from 60 in year 2 to 48 in year 4 The represents a 20 drop 12 60 x 100 Therefore add 20 to 15 to make
76. ment in the FTSE 100 105 to 95 spread Cumulative FTSE 100 FTSE 100 Capital Years capital growth Buy date price Sell date price gain invested on 100 base 100 26 06 1985 1236 5 21 11 1985 1443 1 16 7 0 41 117 28 10 1987 1658 4 11 07 1989 2250 9 35 8 1 7 158 09 04 1990 2227 7 24 12 1993 3412 3 53 2 3 71 243 07 03 1995 2977 0 12 10 1995 3523 8 18 4 0 6 287 11 07 2002 4230 0 23 01 2007 6227 6 47 2 4 54 423 16 08 2007 5859 9 05 10 2007 6595 8 12 6 0 14 476 Total 11 1 Cumulative capital gain 476 less 100 376 Performance of FTSE 100 when sell signals indicated disinvestment from the FTSE 100 105 to 95 spread Capital gain Years Cumulative FTSE 100 FTSE 100 loss not capital growth Sell date price Buy date price invested on 100 base 100 21 11 1985 1443 1 28 10 1987 1658 4 14 9 1 93 115 11 07 1989 2250 9 09 04 1990 2227 7 1 0 0 75 114 24 12 1993 3412 3 07 03 1995 2977 0 12 8 1 2 99 12 10 1995 3523 8 11 07 2002 4230 0 20 6 75 119 23 01 2007 6227 6 16 08 2007 5859 9 5 9 0 56 112 05 10 2007 6595 8 19 11 2007 6120 8 7 2 0 12 104 Total 11 3 Cumulative capital gain 104 less 100 4 Page 9 ShareMaestro User Manual At the time of writing there has been no sell signal subsequent to the buy signal on 19 November 2007 All the other input data are the factual economic and market data for the
77. mula to calculate the number of s per point as described in step 4 of Executing the strategy in detail above So if you wanted to reduce your gearing to 4 and the total investment amount and contract buy price were the same as in step 4 you would calculate the per point as follows 4 x 5000 6000 3 33 Set your stop loss as described in step 5 Historically any gearing level of 1 5 upwards has achieved better performance than remaining fully invested in the cash FTSE 100 at all times Page 36 ShareMaestro User Manual You should fully familiarise yourself with the procedures and policies operated by your chosen spread betting firm before taking out any spread bet contracts You are also exposed to risk of default by your spread betting firm You should therefore be alert for any danger signs regarding the viability of the firm and when your positions become sizeable you may wish to spread your positions around a number of firms RUNNING AN EFFECTIVE SHARE PORTFOLIO The following steps will help you run an effective share portfolio with the help of ShareMaestro 1 Determine the total amount which you wish to invest Only invest in the stock market money which you do not need for day to day living expenses You should have cash savings sufficient to cover at least two years of living expenses before investing in shares Investing in the stock market involves risk Although ShareMaestro helps mitigate the risks it ca
78. n By clicking on the Report Current Valuation box you can produce an Excel report of the valuation This can be filed or printed SINGLE SHARE MANUAL VALUATION To use the ShareMaestro Share Valuation system click on the Share Valuation box of the ShareMaestro home screen ShareMaestro is suitable for valuing the shares only of UK companies which are currently paying dividends and are expected to continue paying dividends over the next 5 years ShareMaestro cannot value collective investments such OEICs unit trusts and investment trusts Using the ShareMaestro Share Valuation System is very similar to using the ShareMaestro FTSE 100 Valuation System The basic functionality of the two systems is the same The Results fields of the two systems are identical except that Share is substituted for FTSE 100 where appropriate Other than the difference in input fields as described below producing editing and saving a manual valuation for a share is identical to that of producing a manual valuation for the FTSE 100 as described in the previous section Differences Between the Input Fields Of The Share And FTSE 100 Valuation Systems The differences in the input fields of the Share Valuation System from the FTSE 100 Valuation System are Current Share Price replaces Current FTSE 100 Price Current Net Dividend Yield refers to the Yield on the Share rather than on the FTSE 100 The FTSE 100 Net Dividend Yield is still
79. n Divs cell B31 This is the extra tax payable by higher rate taxpayers on the net amount of UK dividends received In the 2013 2014 tax year although the tax rate on the notional gross dividend was 32 5 for ordinary high rate tax payers the extra tax payable on the net dividend received was 25 The default value for this cell is zero as basic rate tax is taken at source from UK dividends Personal Risk Premium cell B32 You can enter your own choice of Risk Premium or you can use the Risk Premium used in the automated valuations column AS The default value for this cell is zero COMPARING PROJECTED RETURNS WITH ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS You can compare your personalised projected post tax investment returns with returns from alternative investment opportunities An obvious alternative would be fixed rate cash deposits whether from banks or building societies You should be aware that the headline interest rates quoted by these institutions are gross rates before the tax has been deducted So in the tax year 2013 14 a headline cash interest rate of 3 equates to a rate of just 2 496 after basic rate tax For example at the time of writing December 2013 the best quoted five year fixed rate interest rate is 3 2 This equates to 2 56 post the basic rate of tax By comparison the yield on the FTSE 100 is around 3 596 This yield is already net of the basic rate of tax So the yield on the FTSE 100 is over 40 higher than the fiv
80. nal Risk Premium this Personal Risk Premium is used to calculate your projected personal five year investment return on the FTSE 100 or individual share according to the calculated valuation The Risk Premium essentially compensates for the greater risk of investing in shares as opposed to fixed rate cash The Risk Premium which you choose reduces the projected final investment value and hence the projected return by multiplying the final investment value by 100 and dividing by 100 the personal risk premium This Risk Premium provides some cushion against the risk that the projected final investment value may not be met You may choose to put a higher risk premium on shares which you regard as speculative On the other hand for safer shares and the FTSE 100 you may choose to use of zero personal risk premium on the basis that the risk of the investment value not being met is counterbalanced by the potential for the investment value to be exceeded The Risk Premium and the method by which the default values are calculated is discussed further in the previous section Cell B36 Default Real Share Dividend Growth Rate p a This is used in combination with the projected average inflation rate to calculate the Default Actual Dividend Growth Rate p a See below The default value is 1 0 but you can amend this if you believe the applicable real dividend growth rate for a particular share should be lower or higher This figure can be negati
81. nd conditions of this agreement will be construed in accordance with English law and will be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the English courts Page 63 ShareMaestro User Manual By downloading or installing or using ShareMaestro you are accepting the ShareMaestro terms and conditions We may revise these terms and conditions as we develop our services You may view our current terms and conditions at http www sharemaestro co uk Terms and Conditions shtml The terms and conditions for refunds under ShareMaestro s 30 day money back guarantee are shown on our website Subscriptions are paid monthly or annually in advance and no refunds of subscriptions received by ShareMaestro Limited will be made except under the terms of the 30 day money back guarantee or when cancellation instructions have been received before a subscription has been debited or when a subscription cancellation has been received within one month of the renewal of an annual subscription ShareMaestro Limited reserves the right to terminate the ShareMaestro licence and access of any client who breaches these terms and conditions Page 64 ShareMaestro User Manual APPENDIX 3 SHAREMAESTRO SUPPORT Communication with ShareMaestro is principally by email If we need to communicate with you we will use the email address which you supplied at the time of purchase unless you have advised us of a change If you need to communicate with us we do not want you to
82. nnot eliminate them 2 Time your entry to the market Invest only when the FTSE 100 valuation is above 105 If the market falls as a whole even good value shares may be dragged down 3 Prepare a shortlist of potential shares to buy gt You should be aim to run a portfolio of between 10 and 15 shares spread across at least 5 industrial sectors gt Potential shares should have a ShareMaestro percentage valuation to market price of at least 115 You could for example shortlist the best value shares from the weekly ShareMaestro FTSE All share valuation spreadsheet 4 Select the shares to buy You should do this by following the steps recommended in this section Reviewing and fine tuning share valuations This process will eliminate quite a few candidate shares You should initially invest roughly equal amounts in each share in your portfolio 5 Limit risk Place a trailing stop loss on each share purchased This ensures that you lock in any gains and limit any losses The stop loss can be for a set amount say 25p or a set percentage of the highest price achieved since you bought the share So e g if you buy a share for 1 00 and you put a trailing stop loss of 25p on the share the share will be sold if it falls more than 25p below the highest price achieved since you bought it If therefore the price increases to a peak of 2 00 it will be sold if it falls below 1 85 If however the share falls steadily as soon
83. o use ShareMaestro in any way on behalf of other individuals or organisations ShareMaestro is designed for use only by individual private investors who understand the concepts and terminology of investment in equities and stock markets You may not transfer your ShareMaestro licence to other users By using ShareMaestro you warrant that you comply with all the terms and conditions of the ShareMaestro licence You should read the ShareMaestro User Manual fully before using ShareMaestro The latest version of the User Manual is available from the ShareMaestro website at www sharemaestro co uk It is your responsibility to satisfy yourself that ShareMaestro is suitable for the purposes for which you use it and any representation whether express or implied about ShareMaestro and its performance is excluded You will not use ShareMaestro for illegal purposes nor to bring into disrepute either ShareMaestro Limited or its employees agents and authorised representatives Accept The ShareMaestro Terms And Conditions Exit start inbox Microsoft ShareMaestroUse ShareMaestro Sys Page 14 ShareMaestro User Manual USING THE WEEKLY VALUATION SPREADSHEET The spreadsheet is available to ShareMaestro clients via a private page of the ShareMaestro website The spreadsheet is normally updated weekly and available by Saturday noon UK time for the close of week data The private page is password protected and cli
84. on Description Core Valuation FTSE100 Valuation 5 Year Investment Period Date 08 03 2009 14 40 17 RESULTS DATA Current Net Dividend Inflation Factor 5 aa Implied Average Inflation For Period implied End Period Inflation SSS Actual Dividend Growth Rate pa Projected Growth For Period 1 rj Projected Annual Growth 1 Projected Annual Growth 2 Projected End Period FTSE100 Value Projected FTSE100 Annual Growth Value As Current Price Current FTSE100 Instrinsic Value Amended Date Calculate Report All Valuations ShareMaestro 2 Firefox v EN 2 8 45 i ShareMaestro User Manual Click on the Calculate button and after a brief pause the valuation results will be displayed eS YS Sa eS ae eee ShareMaestro System ShareMaestro Limited 6 FTSE100 Valuation Rm 5 Year Investment Period Date 08 03 2009 14 51 32 10010 991230Dec i 030312Mar CoreValuation 991230Dec Valuation Description Core Valuation 1 INPUT DATA RESULTS DATA Valuation Date 30121999 i Current Net Dividend 141 38 i Current FTSE100 Price 6930 2 i Beaton tacto s 0 1 A Implied Average Inflation For Period 3 8 i Current Net Dividend Yield 2 04 i Implied End Period inflation 43 1 EUR
85. on data as a previous bulk upload for which the valuations IDs remain in the Bulk Upload window a Duplicate Valuation screen will appear If you choose Add as New all the new valuations will appear in the Bulk Valuation window with a suffix 001 etc in addition to the original valuations If you choose Overwrite all the new valuations will appear in the Bulk Upload window and the original valuations will be deleted DELETING BULK VALUATIONS We recommend that you produce and Excel report of the results of any bulk valuation run which you wish to keep You should then bulk valuations from the bulk share valuation window in the Share module of the ShareMaestro software to prevent slow running of future bulk valuations Page 58 ShareMaestro User Manual 1 To delete all the valuations in the Bulk Valuation window select all the valuations using standard Windows selection procedures select the first valuation scroll down to the last valuation press the shift key and click on the last valuation After several seconds delay all the shares will be highlighted in blue 2 Click on the Delete button and the Delete window will appear Click on Delete again and the valuations will be deleted To delete single valuations or several valuations selected together using standard Windows selection techniques use the same procedure BE YOUR OWN FUND MANAGER AND TRANSFORM YOUR INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE When you invest in a managed inv
86. otify IB 2 20 48 The valuation of 139 indicates a strong buy The projected annual growth with reinvested dividends taxed at the basic rate of tax and excluding any CGT payable is 13 0 p a This return which is the actual return rather than the inflation adjusted return can be compared with possible returns from alternative investments This return is not discounted by the Risk Premium Only the current intrinsic share valuation is discounted by the Risk Premium Of course if the market rapidly re rates the share to meet the current intrinsic valuation the short term annual return from the investment will be significantly higher than 13 Page 52 ShareMaestro User Manual STRESS TESTING THE SHARE VALUATION A strong buy signal from ShareMaestro does not necessarily guarantee a successful investment Sudden changes to the prospects of the company or of the economy could adversely effect the intrinsic valuation However by undertaking effective research and by translating the results of the research into a ShareMaestro valuation you will stack the odds in your favour You should also evaluate downside risk by using the powerful what if capabilities of ShareMaestro These are the results of changing individually the following assumptions from the Core Valuation of the share core valuation of 366 v current price of 263 New Intrinsic Value Halve the Real Dividend Growth p a to 6 2 277 Increase Ris
87. out over the last year Column AV Actual Dividend Growth Rate the projected actual annual dividend growth rate including inflation over the five year investment period Column AW End period Dividend the projected dividend for the final year of the five year investment period Column BA Projected End period Share Price the projected FTSE 100 or share price in five years time Column BC Projected End period Investment Value the projected investment value including reinvested dividends taxed at the basic rate of tax in five years time It does not include any assumed deduction for capital gains tax and is not reduced by any risk premium Column BE CURRENT SHARE INTRINSIC VALUE the calculated current intrinsic value of the share or FTSE 100 It is derived from the projected end period investment value Page 24 ShareMaestro User Manual reduced by the risk premium and discounted for five years back to present value by the gross redemption yield on five year gilts Column BF VALUE AS OF CURRENT PRICE the current share intrinsic value expressed as a percentage of the current market price 100 is fair value above 100 is good value and below 100 is poor value Column BG PRICE FOR 95 VALUATION the price to which the market price would have to reach to produce a 95 valuation This calculated price should only be used for strategic valuation targets between weekly valuations It should be rechecked at each
88. owth 2 4 12 bra 0 Projected End Period FTSE100 5042 6 Risk Premium 10 1 Projected 100 Annual Growth 6 2 Real Dividend Growth Rate pa a a Vane As Ss CU cent 57 Redemption Yield pa 5 yr Gits 609 i Current FTSE100 Instrinsic Value 942 1 Created Date Amended Date Report Current Repor All Vgtfiation Valuations New Valuation Delete start inbox Microso ty Share Maestro ShareMaestro 2 Firr cox N AD We 15 71 Click to produce an Shows the date Click to Click to edit valuation Excel report of the when the valuation delete file Toggles to Save ready for valuation was created entirely saving revised valuation after recalculation Page 49 ShareMaestro User Manual If you want to test the effect of changing one or more of the input values of the saved file o Click on the Edit box which will then toggle to Save o Amend the relevant input fields o Click on the Calculate box to view the revised valuation resulting from the changes input values When you have the revised valuation you can o Saveitunder the original file name thereby overriding the original valuation o Save it under a new file name thereby keeping the original file valuation o Discard it by clicking on New Valuation or Exit By clicking on Exit you will exit the FTSE 100 Valuation Screen and return to the ShareMaestro home scree
89. ppetite for risk The more extreme the ShareMaestro valuations the more likely it is that the price of share FTSE 100 will move in the direction of its fair value However extreme valuations occur less frequently and so will present fewer investment opportunities Occasionally ShareMaestro identifies a one way bet The happened at the height of the dot com boom at the end of 1999 when the unique ShareMaestro what if functionality showed that no feasible combination of input values could justify the sky high FTSE 100 market price FTSE 100 The standard strategy is to buy when the valuation reaches 105 and to sell when the valuation falls to 95 The spread between the buy and sell valuation ensures that you are not constantly switching between buying and selling the index SHARES Because investment in individual shares carries more risk than in the FTSE 100 you may wish to increase the valuation trigger for purchase to at least 115 whilst retaining the valuation trigger for sale at 9596 A further worthwhile risk reduction strategy is to put a trailing stop loss on the share as described in the section Running an Effective Share Portfolio In this case you would sell at the earlier of the 95 valuation or the stop loss Page 7 ShareMaestro User Manual trigger Before considering any share investment you should also validate the valuation as far as possible as described in the section Reviewing and fine tuning share valuations
90. pread betting account you could initially transfer a lower sum to your spread betting account and subsequently make cash transfers to cover any increased margin requirements The minimum margin requirements required by spread betting firms are low but you also have to cover any accumulating losses on the contract This potential bonus interest has not been taken into account in the track record for the strategy It is essential that you understand and comply with the margin requirements of your chosen spread betting firm to ensure that your position is not automatically closed out before the 27 5 loss level is reached You may need to maintain a small buffer on your account in addition to the cash required to cover any accumulating losses Buy sufficient s per point so that the gearing on your total fund including the 72 5 held in cash is approximately 7 times the movement of the FTSE 100 contract price This means that if the contract price changes by 1 the value of your total fund will change by approximately 7 up or down The expiry date of the contract should be at least two calendar months away but subject to this proviso the shortest duration available from the quarterly spread bet range So for example if the trade date were 20 February you would buy a contract with the June expiry date Determine the per point to invest through the following formula 7 x your total fund contract buy price So for example if your tota
91. r of depreciation purchase of property plant and equipment is a cash item and could well be higher than the current annual depreciation figure However asset purchases can vary significantly in value from year to year annual depreciation is likely to give a more consistent picture of asset costs for the company FTSE 100 EXCHANGE TRADED FUND INVESTMENT STRATEGY Under this strategy you invest in a FTSE 100 exchange traded fund ETF such i Shares when the ShareMaestro FTSE 100 valuation reaches 10596 When the valuation falls to 9596 or below you switch your investment to a competitive instant access interest bearing cash account You hold your money in cash until the ShareMaestro FTSE 100 valuation next reaches the 105 and then repeat the cycle Since 1984 to the end of December 2013 this strategy has delivered a long term annual return of 9 296 percent net of ETF charges This is considerably better than any long term cash return and also better than any FTSE 100 tracker The above track record uses ShareMaestro FTSE 100 valuations incorporating the standard default values of 296 per for real dividend growth and 1096 for risk premium You may if you wish use the FTSE 100 96 valuation shown in the weekly spreadsheet This uses our best estimate of FTSE 100 real dividend growth over the next five years To use the 296 long term real dividend annual growth rate replace the figure shown in cell AT65 by 2 0 and view the resulting FTS
92. rds installed Other versions of spreadsheet software will not work After running the ShareMaestro bulk valuation you can output the results and the ShareMaestro input fields for each share to an Excel spreadsheet so that you can use standard Excel features such as data sorting and printing If you want to save the valuations for specific shares you can save them to the single valuation window We then suggest that you delete all the share IDs in the bulk valuation window You can do this by selecting all the shares select the first ID scroll down and place the cursor on the last ID while pressing the shift button It may take up to a minute for all the shares to be highlighted Then press the Delete button in ShareMaestro Keeping the bulk valuation window clear will speed up bulk valuations and will avoid confusion from having two or more bulk valuations appearing in the window The bulk valuation function is a very powerful facility which allows you to pinpoint the shares which appear to be the best or worst value so that you can investigate them further You should always check for inconsistencies in the share data which underpin the valuations This topic is covered in more detail in the section Reviewing and fine tuning share valuations USING THE WEEKLY PREPOPULATED FTSE ALL SHARE SPREADSHEET ShareMaestro clients can download a special prepopulated FTSE All Share Valuation spreadsheet Access details are provided with the joining
93. re assessed rather than factual The Risk Premium cell AS 65 The Risk Premium compensates for the greater risk of holding shares rather than fixed rate cash The valuation uses the input Risk Premium Page 16 ShareMaestro User Manual value to reduce the final investment value by 100 100 the Risk Premium Our exclusive research shows the long term value of the Risk Premium to be 10 You can override this value with your own assessment if you wish This Risk Premium is used in the calculation of the current intrinsic value of the FTSE 100 It is not used in the projected annual five year growth rate of a FTSE 100 investment BN65 However you can input your own personal risk premium to project a personal growth rate The Real Dividend Growth Rate cell AT 65 This is the compound annual growth rate of the FTSE 100 dividend over the five year investment period in excess of inflation This is the most important input value in the FTSE 100 valuation The weekly spreadsheet gives our latest assessment for this value The long term actual average for this value is just over 296 You can override our assessed value with your own assessment if you wish Adjusting the FTSE 100 valuation for potential changes to interest rates and inflation You can test the impact on valuations of potential changes to interest rates and inflation as described in the section Testing the Impact of Changes to the Economic Environment Projected FTSE1
94. required This is now labelled Current FTSE 100 Net Dividend Yield to distinguish it from the share dividend yield The sources for the Current Share Price and the Current Net Dividend Yield for the Share are shown in Appendix 1 under Share Valuation Information Sources Page 50 ShareMaestro User Manual An extra input field is required Current Net Dividend Yield For Sector This field requires an assessed value see below This field is called Unadjusted end period dividend yield in the weekly share valuation spreadsheet There is no pre populated value for Risk Premium 96 You must determine this value through your own research and judgement on the target share unless you are using the default value method which is shown in the weekly valuation spreadsheet in column AS Current Share Price and the Current Net Dividend 96 Yield The last closing share price is available from e g www digitallook com select Performance Tables under the Investing Channel This information is also available from most broadsheets The FT calculation includes any changes to interim dividends and so their calculated dividend yields may vary slightly from other sources The following fields involve judgement and have to be assessed Current Net Dividend Yield For Sector unadjusted end period dividend yield Real Dividend Growth Rate Risk Premium 96 Methods for you to decide these 3 values are discussed in Editing Assessed
95. s The individual shares must be priced in the UK stock market in the Sterling currency and have paid a dividend in the financial year prior to the date of the ShareMaestro valuation ShareMaestro is not suitable for AIM shares nor for collective investments such as unit trusts investment trusts and OEICs ShareMaestro has been developed to cover positive UK inflation rates using the Retail Price Index All Items of up to 10 5 p a ShareMaestro should not be used when the actual or projected inflation rates fall outside this range The projected investment growth figures 1 and 2 produced by ShareMaestro software are based on the UK personal basic and higher income tax rates respectively which were current at the date of the software version release Page 62 ShareMaestro User Manual These projected growth figures exclude share dealing costs and any capital gains tax or other taxes payable You can customise the new spreadsheet version of ShareMaestro with your own personal tax rates The current intrinsic valuation of the FTSE 100 or individual share is based on a 5 year investment period The weekly bulk share valuation file will normally be available by noon UK time on the Saturday following the end of the trading week but this timing is not guaranteed Planned variations to this timing will be published on the website page from which the file is downloaded Unplanned variations may be caused by telecommunication or third party prob
96. s YF Uae dy MS SESS 19 12 Redemption Yield p a 5 yr Gilts e g 4 74 for Aug 2 Page 43 ShareMaestro User Manual Using Bank of England market implied inflation rates ShareMaestro uses inflation forecasts amongst other factors to produce valuations The Bank of England publishes data on the future inflation rates implied by the market The Bank of England data can be found at www bankofengland co uk statistics yieldcurve index htm 1 Click on the spreadsheet entitled implied inflation government liability to download the data Click on the 4 spot curve tab Read across to the column headed 5 00 Read down to find the figure for the appropriate date This is the market implied average inflation rate over the next 5 years Enter this figure in the Inflation Factor 1 field Click on the 2 fwd curve tab Read across to the column headed 5 00 Read down to find the figure for the appropriate date This is the market implied inflation rate in 5 years time In the unlikely event that this figure is negative the market is predicting deflation in 5 years time and you cannot use ShareMaestro to perform FTSE 100 or share valuations see our Terms and Conditions Deduct this figure from double the value of the figure entered as Inflation Factor 1 Enter the resulting value as Inflation Factor 2 For example if Inflation Factor 1 were 3 06 and the figure from the fwd curve tab wer
97. ss pre tax redemption yield on non index linked gilts redeemable in 5 years Listed in the Financial times under FTSE UK GILTS INDICES Yield Indices 5 years Also available from http markets ft com ft markets researchArchive asp Select the Bonds and Rates category and the FTSE UK Gilts Indices report Page 41 ShareMaestro User Manual Web Sources Current FTSE 100 price and Current FTSE 100 Net Dividend Yield These are available from http markets ft com ft markets researchArchive asp Information is available free but you may have to register with ft com Select the Equities category and the FTSE Actuaries Share Indices UK series report This link will provide a list of the PDF files for the most recent dates Click on the most recent date and the following type of file will be downloaded This is the same information which appears in the Financial Times newspaper http specials ft com siterefresh stats pdfs ftseukindex FTUKO20806 pdf Microsoft Intern a Address http specials ft com siterefresh stats pdfs ftseukindex F TUK020806 pdf Links Yr 2 Search 2 Highlight B3 Y Mail Norton Internet Security Norton AntiVirus 19107881 Data available at www ft com marketsdata FTSE Actuaries Share Indices UK series Produced in conjunction with the Faculty and Institute of Actuaries www ft com equities St
98. ss than 1 and more than 10 50 p a as this is outside the range covered by ShareMaestro Implied End Period Inflation The projected inflation rate RPI at the end of the 5 year investment period Do not use the ShareMaestro valuation if this rate is outside the range of 1 and 10 50 p a see above Actual Dividend Growth Rate pa Projected actual annual compound dividend growth rate over the period derived from the input real pa compound dividend growth rate over the period and the projected compound annual inflation rate over the period Projected Growth for Period 1 Projected absolute growth in investment value over the period including reinvested dividends taxed at the basic UK dividend tax rate Not adjusted for inflation Dividends are declared and paid by UK companies net of this basic rate tax Excludes any CGT Projected Annual Growth 1 Compound annual growth in investment value on the same basis as the Projected Growth for Period 1 If the calculated value is zero e g 0 00 it is likely that the calculation is outside the range of the compound interest function and the zero value should be ignored Projected Annual Growth 2 Compound annual growth in investment value assuming reinvested dividends taxed at the higher rate of tax 32 5 Not adjusted for inflation Excludes any CGT If the calculated value is zero e g 0 00 it is likely that the calcula
99. stop loss which will guarantee execution of your chosen stop loss price Guaranteed stop loss costs have not been Page 34 ShareMaestro User Manual included in the track record of the strategy Between 8am and 9am UK time trade prices can be volatile and your trade could be prematurely stopped If you wish to avoid this risk adjust your stop losses overnight to 30 if your contract is approaching the 27 5 stop loss trigger and then reinstate the 27 5 stop soon after Yam as possible 7 Unless the trade is stopped out hold the position for two calendar months So if you bought a contract on 20 you would hold until 20 July or the first trading day thereafter Then sell on the earlier of a the day when the valuation falls below 105 when the valuation is falling close to 105 you should monitor valuations daily so that you can sell your position as soon as the valuation falls below 105 b the day before contract expiry 8 If the valuation remains above 105 on the day of contract expiry buy a new contract following the same principles from step 2 onwards but adjust your cash fund for any profit or loss that has been made on the contract So for example if your total fund was 5000 when you bought the contract and you made a profit including interest of 1000 from the contract your new fund would be 6000 and 27 5 of this i e 1650 would be allocated to a potential maximum loss on your next spread bet con
100. the valuation of the FTSE 100 or individual share The valuation pre Risk Premium is multiplied by a fraction of which 10096 is the numerator and 100 Risk Premium is the denominator For example a Risk Premium of 30 will produce a share valuation which is 11 5 lower than a Risk Premium of 15 The Risk Premium for an individual share will be higher than for an index because of the lack of diversification and the increased exposure to unpredictable and potentially damaging events Even a blue chip stock will have a Risk Premium of at least 1596 compared to the default 1096 for the FTSE 100 On more speculative shares the risk premium could be as high as 75 One of the key determinants of a company s Risk Premium is the volatility of the share price A common measure of this volatility is the beta value which measures how volatile the share price is in relation to the volatility of the index A higher value than 1 0 indicates higher relative volatility and a lower value than 1 0 indicates lower relative volatility The automated share valuation method increases the Risk Premium of a share above the minimum 1596 by 5 for every 0 196 the beta value is above 1 0 up to a maximum of 75 The beta value for a share can be found e g via the Risk Table of Performance Tables in the Investing Channel of Digital Look www digitallook com Please note that different share data services calculate beta values over different periods and so the quoted va
101. this software if you wish to perform single manual valuations of the FTSE 100 or of an individual share or you are a ShareScope client and wish to perform a bulk valuation for a customised group of shares Page 38 ShareMaestro User Manual SINGLE MANUAL VALUATION OF THE FTSE 100 Click on the FTSE 100 Valuation box and you will be presented with the following screen 1j ShareMaestro System ShareMaestro Limited E a Screen FTSE100Valuation Version 2 0 sm FTSE100 Valuation 5 Year Investment Period Date 08 03 2009 13 51 08 FTSE ID FTSE100 ID 1 030312 9912300 Valuation Description 1 INPUT DATA RESULTS DATA Valuation Date 1 Current Net Dividend i Current FTSE100 Price i aces 1 D implied Average Inflation For Period 1 Current Net Dividend Yield 1 gt implied End Period Inflation i inflation Factor 1 1 Actual Dividend Growth Rate pa i Inflation Factor 2 i Projected Growth For Period 1 i f Projected Annual Growth 1 i Inflation Factor 3 1 Projected Annual Growth 2 1 ERD EAE 1 Projected End Period FTSE100 Value i Risk Premium i Projected FTSE100 Annual Growth 1 Real Dividend Growth Rate pa i Man ns Caron 1 Current FTSE100 Instrinsic Value Redemption Yield p a 5 yr Gilts 1 1 lt gt Created Date Amended Date New Valuation Exit Report All Valkations inbox Microsot C ShareMaestroUse Files o
102. tion is outside the range of the compound interest function and the zero value should be ignored Projected End Period FTSE 100 Value Projected price of the FTSE 100 at the end of the 5 year investment period based on the input values Projected FTSE 100 Annual Growth Projected annual compound growth in the price of the FTSE 100 over the 5 year investment Page 47 ShareMaestro User Manual period not adjusted for inflation If the calculated value is zero e g 0 00 unless the projected end period FTSE 100 value is virtually identical to the current FTSE 100 price it is likely that the calculation is outside the range of the compound interest function and the zero value should be ignored Value As Current Price The current intrinsic ShareMaestro valuation of the FTSE 100 expressed as of its current price A figure above 100 indicates that according to the ShareMaestro valuation from the input values and default values where applicable the current market price undervalues the FTSE 100 Correspondingly a figure lower than 100 indicates that according to the ShareMaestro valuation from the input values the current market price overvalues the FTSE 100 Current FTSE 100 Intrinsic Value The intrinsic valuation of the FTSE 100 at the date of the input values as calculated by ShareMaestro according to the input values and default values where applicable SAVING THE
103. to over 1 977 000 by 20 December 2013 See the ShareMaestro website for further details of the track record SHARES The valuation of shares by ShareMaestro uses the same methodology as the valuation of the FTSE 100 Our research shows that when the consensus broker forecasts prove to be accurate those shares rated as best value by ShareMaestro have after two years outperformed the market by more than 20 ShareMaestro has been used on several occasions at the request of the financial press to provide lists of the 10 best value and worst value shares These portfolios have generally performed in accordance with the valuations More recently the 10 best value shares from the 21 December 2012 bulk share valuation run had increased in value by an average of 46 8 at 20 December 2013 The 10 worst value shares had increased in value by an average of just 7 996 over the same period Details are given below Over the same period the FTSE 100 increased by 11 295 the FTSE All Share by 13 6 and the FTSE 250 by 26 5 Page 10 ShareMaestro User Manual 10 best value shares Company change in price NCC Group 23 2 Mecom Group 6 4 Bank of Georgia Holdings 130 6 Volex Group 32 2 Huntsworth 51 9 Hogg Robinson 44 4 Centaur Media 27 7 St Ives 65 2 FirstGroup 29 3 Greencore 115 4 Average change 46 8 10 worst value shares Company ch
104. to redemption Page 6 ShareMaestro User Manual 5 The resulting current value of the investment is then compared to the current market price of the share to see if the market price represents good or bad value The current value is expressed as a percentage of the current market price 100 represents fair value Over 100 shows the value is greater than the price and vice versa The greater the valuation above or below 100 the stronger is the buy or sell signal Example 1 The current price of a share is 120p and its future price in 5 years time is projected by the ShareMaestro calculation engine to be 150p 2 Reinvested dividends are projected to add 30p making a future investment value of 180p 3 The Risk Premium for this share is 1596 the minimum and so the future risk adjusted investment value is calculated to be 156 5p 100 115 180 4 The current investment value is calculated by using the current 5 year gilt redemption yield of 3 296 p a as a discount factor This produces a current value of 133 8p In other words if you invested 133 8p in a 5 year gilt now and held it to redemption your return in 5 years time would be 156 5p 5 The current value of the investment has been calculated as 133 8p whereas the market price is 120p Therefore the share valuation is 111 5 of the market price 133 8 120 100 WHEN TO BUY AND SELL The decision as to when to buy and sell depends to a certain extent on your a
105. tract 9 If the trade has been stopped out or sold before contract expiry wait until the contract expiry date before buying a new contract following the above principles from step 2 onwards if the ShareMaestro FTSE 100 valuation is above 105 10 Try and buy and sell contracts near to but before the end of the LSE UK Equity trading day 16 30pm UK time 11 When as a result of the ShareMaestro FTSE 100 valuations you do not hold a spread bet position hold all of your cash in the instant access cash account s 12 In times of market freefall very rare apply the detailed rules as described below When the market is in freefall For the purposes of this strategy a FTSE 100 freefall is defined as the point when the FTSE 100 closing price crashes more than 10 below the price at which the 100 day simple moving average of closing prices has fallen below the 200 day simple moving average of closing prices These conditions happen very rarely and have occurred only three times between 1984 and the end of 2013 Free information services such as Digital Look provide facilities to calculate and graph moving averages When the market has fallen to the above freefall point you need to take cover until the storm subsides Sell any FTSE 100 spread bet position irrespective of the FTSE 100 valuation Only take out a new FTSE 100 spread bet position when both The FTSE 100 100 day moving average has risen above the 200 day moving average
106. ulated real dividend growth rate shown in column AT with your own input value as described below Page 19 ShareMaestro User Manual Taking into account the forecast average inflation rate over the period you should input what you judge to be the most likely real compound p a dividend growth for the target share The real growth is the actual growth less the effect of inflation This real growth figure can be positive or negative For example if average inflation for the period has been calculated at 2 5 p a and you believe that the dividend of the individual share will increase on average by 6 96 p a you should input a Real Dividend Growth Rate p a of 3 5 6 0 less 2 5 On the other hand if you believe that the actual dividend growth will only average 1 p a input a Real Dividend Growth Rate p a of 1 596 1 0 less 2 5 For individual UK companies the recent dividend history and consensus broker forecasts for dividend growth are available from websites such as www digitallook com When companies declare dividends and earnings in currencies other than sterling e g BP ensure that all figures are expressed in sterling at current exchange rates before calculating historic and prospective growth rates Research sites often quote past dividends and earnings per share in currency and future figures in sterling With ShareScope you can view the dividend forecasts of each broker However brokers do not always agree on
107. ut value in column AR with your own value You should give your projection of how by the end of the 5 year investment period the net share dividend yield will relate to the FTSE 100 net dividend yield For example if the current yield of the FTSE 100 is 4 296 and you believe that the yield on the share will be half of the FTSE 100 by the end of the investment period you would enter 2 1 in this field Page 20 ShareMaestro User Manual INPUTTING MISSING DATA TO CREATE VALUATIONS Automated valuations will not be reproduced for shares which do not currently pay a dividend nor for shares where missing broker forecast information results in missing input values for Unadjusted End period Share Dividend Yield column AR or Real Dividend Growth Rate column AT You can create valuations by inputting your own values for these latter two fields as described in the previous section and by ensuring that the Current Net Dividend Yield field column AQ is completed If a share is not currently paying a dividend a valuation cannot be produced DIRECTORY OF INPUT VALUES The input values are pre populated on the spreadsheet except where broker forecasts are not available for the relevant fields The input values and the associated column in which they appear are described below Editable input values are shown in italics COMMON INPUT DATA A AQ AR AS m E M SHAREMAESTRO FTSE ALL SHARE VALUATION DATA
108. ve as well as positive Cell B37 Default Actual Share Dividend Growth Rate p a For individual shares this is used to project the dividends for years four and five of the five year investment period Cell B38 Target Dividend Cover Dividend cover is the multiple of earnings per share to dividend per share A very low dividend cover indicates that the future dividend may be in jeopardy because there are insufficient earnings from which to provide the dividend A dividend cover of 2 0 is normally regarded as acceptable The default value for target dividend cover is 2 25 but you can amend this if you wish As there is a strong relationship between dividend yield and dividend cover the prospective final year dividend cover ona Page 22 ShareMaestro User Manual share is used to calculate the final year dividend yield In general a high dividend cover is associated with low dividend yield because there should be scope to produce premium dividend growth in future Controversy a low dividend cover is associated with a high dividend yield because the market does not see scope for any significant future dividend increases SHARE SPECIFIC INPUT DATA ROWS 66 ONWARDS AT37 amp Data produced in association with ShareScope ShareMaestro Limited EA SHAREMAESTRO FTSE ALL SHARE VALUATION DATA 3 22 1 COMMON DATA See the User Manual for data definition 24 Valuation Date r 29112013 25 FTSE1
109. y prepopulated FTSE All Share spreadsheets e EE REDE HR LEE BER NERO ke BUR e Ee eU Rd e Roe Un 55 LOADING CUSTOMISED BULK VALUATION SHARE DATA VIA 55 Preparing your system for the ShareScript loading routine eene 55 Creating a file of share data from ShareScope via ShareScript eene 56 Populating the ShareMaestro Bulk Share Valuation ShareScope Data via ShareScript spreadsheet 56 Notes on the calculations made from running the ShareMaestro Bulk Share Valuation ShareScope Data via ShareScript spreadsheet 57 Differences from the valuations produced using ShareScript Data eee 57 VIEWING AND PRODUCING REPORTS FOR SHAREMAESTRO 58 EDITING VALUATIONS AND DUPLICATE 58 DELETING BULK nnne nene 58 BE YOUR OWN FUND MANAGER AND TRANSFORM YOUR INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE 59 APPENDIX 1 INFORMATION SOURCES e eeeeeee eee ee esten sete t stessa etna setas etna stessa tenes etus sets sets 60 DATA SOURCES FOR SINGLE VALUATIONS esee 60 FESTE T00 Valudti 60 Share VANAN ON

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