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1.   M t     1 A t        3  Instantaneous failure rate vs cumulative time which is Option R   Option I  superimposed for WinSMITH Visual  The line slope is BR   1  This method is often helpful  for development activities   c t    ABET     4  Instantaneous MTBF or MTTF vs cumulative time  This is Option T   Option I  superimposed for WinSMITH Visual  The trend line slope is 1 B   m t     1 AB t  P     5  Cumulative failure rate vs cumulative time which is Option R for WinSMITH Visual  The  line slope is B    1   C t    Atf     The most used features are 1   2   and 3   Often you will see the term a   1 8 in European literature     Suppose we have the following data set   Cumulative time  316 2 752 1 1248 6 1788 9 2364 4 2969 5 3600 6 4254 6 4929 5 5623 4  Cumulative failures  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10    What are P  A  what do the symbols mean  and when will failure number 11  12  15  and 20 occur     Enter the data  click on the C A icon  view the plot  interpret the data  and click the ord tab for failures     Page 20    Figure V7 shows the main screen with a Crow AMSAA plot and the results      lt  WinSMITH TM    isual 4 0P 32  gt     a    NAAA  ag        Icon    Tab For  Forecast    Beta   0 8  Lambda   0 01  r42   1 0              Point6    Points          3600 6x x1 375 8063x1 14  4254 6x8x1 386 7804x1 1  4929 5x9x1                   Figure V7  WinSMITH Visual Crow AMSAA Plot    Click on the tab above the graph in Figure V7 to get the statistics and the failure forecast as show
2. BF Plot    Instantaneous Failure Rate    Other options under the C A icon allow you to have the display to fit your needs such as  the rate of failure  occurrences  Option R   the survival transform which is 1  Rate  Option S  which will produce a curved line of  both survival and MTBF  and other options to be discussed later     End of excerpts from the training manual    For more details you will need to purchase the WinSMITH Weibull and  WinSMITH Visual Instruction Manual and Guide     Contact Barringer  amp  Associates at     http   www barringerl com  Phone  1 281 852 6810    FAX  1 281 852 3749  Email  hpaul barringerl com    Page 23    
3. RAK  Te  Era CON acta lo ue actin bie ase EE 9  Py EMG Ey EE EE 10  14  Another Quick Analysis Using Optimum Replacement Intervals                       11  15  High Resolution Graphical Output es rar skeerne ARENAER 12  l6 Addme Labels T    GraphS eases EE 14  PEPENE GaP EE 16  S The E EE 18  19  Demonstrate Sample Data Input    25  20 DIS IBU MOM ANALY SIS ee ee ee 26  21  Prediction Precise Reading From Plot   Likelihood Plot    28  22  Failure Forecast For Quantity Expected  Abernethy Risk Analysis                   28  GE E EE AER 32  SC Ee EE 35  S  S VNC IM OC VEO UN 2 crc EE 36  26  Oily Ee E EE 37  27 Taree Parameter Curve EE 37  28  Weibayes MEE NEE EE 39  29  Zoom Hide  PBomt Set Ouantntv   ccc cece cece eee cece renee ener eee eee eee e es 40  Additonal FFE ATA IV SIS   de ses een ensues Giri bese leet TT tae Cis 42  31  Accelerated Test Degradation  DEEN    42  32  Mixture t Process e 45  BJ MTOM ET EEN 48  34  Bach Operant EE 48    Appendix A     The WinSMITH Weibull Icon Tour    5     INS Wye EE 51  EE EE EE 5I  OPETE Od ee 53  LV    EE 54  PIOTEREP OF NEE 54  6211  01 ks EE 56  EIER Eeer 56  Dice  demonstrate sampl EE 58  IR Si ee ET 59  Optimum Replacement Interval 0c  ccc cece cee eee ener eee neeees 60  Predict Precise Plot E EE 61  Quantify Expected  Abernethy Risk  Analvas  ccc cc eee cece cece es 62  Test Regu emei EE 64  EE EE INA E A EE ETA dae urinate hee 65  Conndence nterna Eege Ee 65  Ee 67  Egeter ER 68  Ony EE 70  PAS E E E EE A E E E E ET 70  We
4. See  Figure W2 for data appearance before and after entry    Data     quantity  f not otherwise specified  the default   quantity of 1 is automatically added by the software    SMa avast    Data in Point2   Data in rank  entry sequence i order after the    before mouse mouse pointer  pointer is moved is moved over  over graph   the graph       Spreadsheet data as entered Data automatically ordered  Figure W2  WinSMITH Weibull Spreadsheet During And After Data Entry    Page 12    2  Make A Probability Plot     Using the spreadsheet data in Figure W2  move the mouse pointer to the small size plot  The    thumbnail plot appears as shown in Figure W3   Select  Set 1 Point 7        ae  Jm  est  KT Em      Weibull   2     E       JE  amp                 Figure W3  WinSMITH Weibull Thumbnail Plot    Enlarge the thumbnail plot  by mouse click  It will go to full screen as in Figure W4     Click Results   Minimize    RESULTS       W rr    Rank regression method             Characteristic    life  n  Cumulative    distribution  function    Coefficient of  determination       Eta Beta r  2 n s YR2002  21 4 2 007 0 981 5 0 MO1D13             wz    10   Line slope  P SES  Datum  Units     5 data  0 suspension    Figure W4  WinSMITH Weibull Full Scale Plot       Remove the full screen plot  by touching the ESCAPE key or left click with the mouse     Page 13    3  How To Interpret The Weibull Probability Plot   In Figure W4  notice     The probability plot is a Weibull plot  and it uses ran
5. WinSMITH Weibull  and  WinSMITH Visual    Instruction Manual and Guide    Paul Barringer  P E     Barringer  amp  Associates  Inc   P O  Box 3985  Humble  TX 77347 3985    Phone  1 281 852 6810  FAX  1 281 852 3749    Email  hpaul barringer1l com  Web  http   www barringer1 com    Simple Tools    Strong Results    WinSMITH Weibull and WinSMITH Visual Software  Instruction Manual and Guide     First Edition    All rights reserved  Reproduction or translation of any part of this work beyond that  permitted by Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act without  permission of the copyright author is unlawful  Requests for permission should be  addressed to the author s      Weibull Methodology by Robert B  Abernethy    536 Oyster Road   North Palm Beach   Florida 33408 4328   Phone  561 842 4082   FAX  561 842 4082   E mail  weibull worldnet att net    Software by Wes Fulton Presentation by Paul Barringer  Fulton Findings TM  Barringer  amp  Associates  Inc    1251 W  Sepulveda Blvd  PMB 800 P O  Box 3985   Torrance  CA 90502 Humble  TX 77347 3985   Phone  310 548 6358 Phone  281 852 6810   FAX  310 548 6358 FAX  281 852 3749   E mail  wes weibullnews com E mail  hpaul barringer  com  Website  http   www weibullnews com Website  http   www barringerl com    Distributed by Dr  Abernethy  Wes Fulton  and Paul Barringer    Printing History   Every printing includes updated material    First Edition First Printing February 2002  Second Printing April 2002     Trademar
6. e process is called non homogenous     The following explains how to interpret the Crow AMSAA plots under the C A icon with  options  C A data can only have suspensions at the end of the dataset where the data is entered  with suspended time and the same number of failures as last reported  eg     1000 4  105054         The Crow AMSAA technique has three widely used methods and two less widely used rates  each with  cumulative time on the X axis and most produce straight lines for stable processes on log log plots     1  Cumulative failure events vs cumulative time   this is the default method which  produces a line slope of B  if B lt 1 failures are occurring more slowly  if B  1 no change in  the failure rate  and if B  gt  1 then failures are occurring more quickly  and A which is the  Y axis intercept identifying MTBF or MTTF   1 A  This is the WinSMITH Visual default  method involving a nose count of events and time  It is useful for predicting future failures  and identifying cusps where significant events have occurred   N t    A    2  Cumulative MTBF or MTTF vs cumulative time which requires a transform of the Y axis  and thus the actual line slope of the trend line is 1 8  This is Option T for WinSMITH Visual   This method requires a transform of the Y axis  cumulative time   cumulative failures   The  direction of the curve is a pointer for audiences with attention deficiencies  up for improvements   down for deterioration  and sideways for no change in reliability 
7. he icons for WinSMITH Visual     Data Form  Y Scale       Figure 4  WinSMITH Visual Icon Definitions    xi    Notice each software has a spreadsheet for data entry  a thumb size graph  and special icons for  peforming the calculation or routine chores  If you prefer  you can use the pull down menus to  perform the operations     Su    WinSMITH Weibull Software  An Excerpt From The Manual      1  Manual Data Input   The spreadsheet becomes active when you click in the sheet  just like occurs with Excel     and it  changes appearance to give you clues the sheet is active  see Figure W1     Delete cell s  Click this icon for 1  Click in spreadsheet  Cut data cell s  expanding the full 2  Enter data here in the  Copy cell s  screen spreadsheet active data entry box  Paste data            Press the    Enter    key  S   a Data    O Newsa    E    Accept data  entry  or  press the    enter key    Spreadsheet before click in a cell Spreadsheet after click  Figure W1  WinSMITH Weibull Spreadsheet    Use the active data entry box to enter data  8  14  17  21  33   you do not need to order the data  by  use of the edit box such as 8  Enter  14  Enter    33  Enter  Check for data input errors by viewing  the data BEFORE you move the mouse over the thumbnail graph or return to the main screen  When  the mouse is moved over the graph  the data are automatically ordered and you loose the input  arrangement  If the data entry is a suspension  enter a            minus  sign before the number  
8. he probability plotting software  the data does not change  after entry  If data is input in the wrong format  e g   Y scale X scale a data transform icon is  discussed below to unscramble the error without data re entry     Use the active box on the spreadsheet to enter data  2x1  4x2  6x3  8x4  10x5     the data must be in the   sequence your want it to appear on the plot following the format X data   Y data   Quantity Z data      For data entry  you can use the asterisk or the    x    or         key to separate the data for use by the  software  Input the data as 2 4  Enter  472    X data  Y data Quantity  Z data   Enter   10 5  Enter  The data will appear as   if not otherwise specified the shown in Figure V2    default Quantity is 1        2  How to make a plot    When you have finished data entry  move the mouse  over the thumbnail blank screen and the plot will  appear in Figure V3  as data points and without trend  lines  You can connect the dots by use of the Plot  Type icon  bottom row  left icon  and choose curve  type as point   line  line only  or point only  If you  prefer  you can fit the data to a variety of different  math models found under the Curve Fit icon on the  bottom row  third from the left  Interpretation of the  plot requires no comment        Data Entry Format    Page 17     lt  WinSMITH TM  Visual 4 0N 32  gt     Come JE      Dopor  bebes   Tools   Help      Visual  Z    Data             Figure V3  WinSMITH Visual Spreadsheet Thumbnail Plot    En
9. ilBayos   lParamcter  serene serne DERNE EEA EN 71  ZOOM AGC EET TE T E E EAE EET T2  Additional Fulton Findings Programs  cece cece cece cece eeeeeaennees 73  Accelerated Test D SHA da HOR dee 73  Ka 74  EE 75    vi    WinSMITH Visual Software    Tes leed Eer  ee EE EE 76  Do HON POsMaKe APO EE 76  3  How Lo Tmport A Y Data From ExCe EE 78  A  EENEG EE E A A EE ASEN 78  5 gt  Make A CroW EE 79  Os ODS EE 79  den INAO E E A E E E AEA e 83  Se DOUP GE 83  D IPE Ge e EE 84  UAW D EE 84  PRC VOLUN EE 85    EU EE 86  VS Pel OUPO NCO EE 86  14  Dice Icon  Demonstrate  Sample  eege ee Ehe 88  15  Add A Function Without Use Of A Dataser 0c ccc ccc cece eee e eee e eee e eee eees 88  16  Crow AMSAA  Duane  Reliability Growth Plot    89  Dis Precise PIOL RCAC EE 92  IS EK Pe CULV E 92  FO AG WS  ey EE 92  ZO AC UEV ET EE 92  2  ranstorm  Change TO Data  EE 93  22 7  00m  de  Ploy Sey QUANULY   cece be Ee 93  E NOCIUONAL FF ANAIS S overser tenors case tained ager R EE EEE ENE 94  2A DOr NaO EE 94    Vil    Appendix B     The WinSMITH Visual Icon Tour                            95    NN  0  GE 95   e  a  cle    eee eee en ime ren en Or Mena ai ae oe ne eer E ee ee 95   Je W Pile ele EE 97  or EE 98  enee EE E NA 98  Eege 99  PGMA EE 102  Dice Icon  Demonstrate  Sample  eieiei Seege eege 102  Wrath  Lea EE 102  Crow AMSAAMA DUAN  DEE 103   S   KEE EE 104    i FE 1 GE 105  Plot EE n 105  EIDE ee 105  CUNE T EEN 106  Transform  Make Changes ToDarat  0 0    cece cece cen eee eeeeeees 107  Z
10. k and Copyright Notice  Laserjet  HPGL  and Deskjet are trademarks belonging to Hewlitt Packard  Inc   PC XT AT PS2 are trademarks belonging to IBM  Inc  Windows  MS DOS  Excel  Powerpoint and Word are  trademarks belonging to Microsoft Corporation  Lotus is a trademark belonging to Lotus Development Corporation   The New Weibull Handbook is copyrighted by Robert Abernethy  PlayTIME  Fulton Findings  Weibull NEWS   WinSMITH  and SuperSMITH are trademarks belonging to Wes Fulton  All other trademarks and copyrights  mentioned herein belong to their respective business units       Barringer  amp  Associates  Inc   2002    Preface    This manual is intended as a home study guide or a 1 day training class in how to use  WinSMITH Weibull and WinSMITH Visual software for those who want more details about the  common features of the software  This manual does not include the more elaborated subjects and  details offered in PlayTIME for SuperSMITH     WinSMITH Weibull is a stand alone menu driven probability plotting analysis software  program  The program provides for best practice Weibull analysis including many techniques  not available elsewhere  WinSMITH Weibull software is the defacto standard for life data  analysis  prediction  and for evaluating variability and uncertainty in practically all industries   Capabilities of WinSMITH Weibull include Weibull  normal  lognormal  and Gumbel  lower and  upper  distributions  and variations of these  as well as likelihood plotting  co
11. k regression calculations methods  Shape factor B  line slope B   is 2 007   it is literally the rise over run calculation for 1 1  graph paper and this is not 1 1 paper  suggests a component wear out failure mode  The  shape factor B is dimensionless    Location factor n  characteristic life n is 21 4 using raw data units  hours  years   months  cycles  etc    occurs where the trend line crosses the 63 2  double line for the  cumulative distribution function  CDF     The plot contains 5 pieces of data   n and 0 suspensions   s    The coefficient of determination r 2   0 981  is a measure of goodness of fit  It says  the straight line explains 98 1  of scatter in the data    The graph was made on the date of January 13   2002  gt  MO1D13YR2002   The small    1    in the upper right hand corner by the triangle symbol is the legend for the  graph  WSW graphs can contain up to 10 trend line data sets     Ten percent  Bun or Lio  of the population is expected to fail in 7 units of time or less   this means  90  of the population will exceed 7 units of time  Ninety percent of the population will fail in  32 4 units of time or less  Thus 90    10    80  of the population is expected to fail in the  range of 7 units of time to 32 4 units of time     4  How To Import One Column Of Data From Excel To WSW   A single column of Excel data can be imported into WinSMITH Weibull in two steps as shown in  Figure WS     Step 1 Step 2    Highlight single Paste data into the spreadsheet by  col
12. large the thumbnail plot in Figure V3  by mouse click and it will go full screen as shown in Figure  V4     RESULTS    PA           Scale  x     Figure V4  WinSMITH Visual Spreadsheet Full Scale Plot    Page 18    3  How to Import X Y data from Excel    Make sure the data columns in Excel are X data in the left column and Y Data in the right  column  the highlight the cells and copy  To paste the two data columns into WinSMITH Visual   click on the paste pot icon  DO NOT do a typical Windows paste into WSV because it won   t  work    and select option B from the paste into the spreadsheet dialog box which tells the  software how to handle the data  The four steps are shown in Figure 5        Copy  lt  WinSMITH TM  Visual 4 0N 32  gt   From Excel Visual Lio x    7   Paste ro  ahs OE ela e eE e V   Select  ars E Use Option B For 2 column Source          vga Data A  Nee Column   New Set  Value     Paste Icon       Pom 1    1 i   YR2002  Point13   meta  Pom 13    Pom 18   0 2 a 5 8 10 1  All       2  v     gt  a X Sceale  x     fj          Figure V5  WinSMITH Visual Copy Paste From Spreadsheet    You can also use the Excel concatenate function to take multiple columns of data and prepare a single  column import using option A in Figure 5 during import   the concatenate function is explained in the  WinSMITH Weibull section of this manual     4  Data Entry Reminder  eegal be Res         Sege File  Ea   D  Optons    A  Anelysis    B  Tools  Hee 7 Visual  When the mouse pointer is o
13. n in Figure V8         lt ESC gt    Exit    Set 1  1 of 2     Label  1    ees    Point Quantity 10    X Minimum d Y Minimum  Maximum z Maximum    Total   27847 7 Total   55  Mu   2784 77 Mu   5 5   Sig   1803 453 Sig   3 02765  Forecast m    Crow   AMSAA  Duane  Results        Data    Lambda 0  01 Beta 0 8  rgr   r 2  99999761581563 ccc 2  9726 r 2 ccec 2  0274    kay   Last Occurrence Quantity 10 At Time   al Cumulative   Occurrence Expected   Next 1 At Time  Total Cumulative      711 5  6335   Next 2 At Time  Total Cumulative      1439  7063   Next 5 At Time  Total Cumulative      3712  9335   Next 10 At Time  Total Cumulative      7752  13375     Figure V8  WinSMITH Visual Crow AMSAA Failure Forecast             The beta value of 0 8 is less than one  This indicates failures are coming more slowly and reliability is improving    Future failures are predicted in Figure V8 along with their timing     The lambda value of 0 01 is related to the system failure rate at time   1  Of course with beta  lt  1   the failure rate      will be decreasing with time as the reliability improves and in turn the system mean time  LA  is growing from  100 at time 1 to 562 3 by the 10  failure  If beta were  1  then the system would keep it   s failure rate and display a  constant mean time   100  Likewise if the system is deteriorating  then P  gt  1 and expect increasing failure rates  and declining mean times to failure     Page 21    Crow AMSAA Plot 38833        Crow rgr         Failure F
14. n the l    WinSMITH Visual spreadsheet  a DEDE Wite J  MA ies    dialog box appears as a reminder  S  elel el iz  concerning data format  The dialog  tells you the data should be in the  format of X Data x Y Data x Pem    y Mouse pointer and  Quantity  The reminder box is fe EE    SE about data format  shown in Figure V6  with memory jog that    wie   a minus sign signifies  In case your software does not have  fPeimm   suspended data    a tooltip dialog box  it may have  been turned off  To restore the        tooltip  go to the bottom row of ai     icons and select the nght hand icon   Under the icon choose option I to  restore the tooltip box     Figure V6  WinSMITH Visual Tooltip Reminder Box    Page 19    5  Make A Crow AMSAA Plot     The Crow AMSAA plot in log log format produces a straight line for stable processes as a naturally  occurring series of events  the trend line models the process and just not the system   The task of  reliability engineering improvements is to put cusps on the trend lines by make improvements so as to  reduce safety problems and reduce costs  Thus some judgment is required in selected the trend lines  and where line segments start stop  Also note that MTBF and cumulative failure rate go with  repairable systems  and MTTF and instantaneous failure rate go with non repairable systems     When the line slope on the Crow AMSAA plot of cumulative failures vs cumulative time is B 1 the  process is called a homogenous Poisson process  and if B41 th
15. ndows screen by first selecting  START  Then select and run the appropriate SuperSMITH    software program as listed either  above the PROGRAMS selection or by first selecting PROGRAMS  You should initially see the  opening screen with one button displaying     lt Y gt  Yes I Agree To The Above    and another button  displaying     lt X gt  Exit     Choose     lt Y gt  Yes I Agree To The Above    to accept the usage  disclaimers shown and continue to the main screen  The main screen displays all of the options  available in the software with icons and menu items for each choice plus a data spreadsheet and a  results window     Usage Instructions   On line User Manual  The use of the software is described in detail in the  on line HELP file user manual that comes with the software  To access the electronic user  manual  choose the HELP option from the main screen  The New Weibull Handbook     ISBN 0   9653062 1 6  by Dr  Robert B  Abernethy is the reference manual for the methodology in our  Weibull related software  This handbook is the standard reference used to describe Weibull  technology and is available separately     Server LAN Operation  Server LAN use is completely acceptable given that the purchaser   s  network administration must limit access to one simultaneous user per purchased copy  The  software reads information from the command line  can be different for each user  to assist LAN  operation  Add        cXXX    to the comand line to store user specific configu
16. nfidence plotting   design comparison  probabilistic analysis  outlier detection  optimum replacement  failure  forecasting  test substantiation planning  accelerated testing  and mixture analysis     WinSMITH Visual is a general plotting analysis program with complimentary capability  to WinSMITH Weibull  Capabilities of WinSMITH Visual include general function plotting   transforms  curve fitting  aggregate cumulative hazard  ACH  plotting  and Crow AMSAA   Duane  reliability growth plotting  The primary functions of the older  for MS DOS   WeibullSMITH     BiWeibullISMITH     and MonteCarloSMITH    programs are included in  WinSMITH Weibull  WinSMITH Weibull also includes new mixture analysis capability and  process reliability analysis calculations     WinSMITH Weibull and WinSMITH Visual software offer more useful options and  capabilities than any other current life data analysis program  although it is extremely compact in  size  This wide ranging usefulness is due to the many applications in industries including  automotive  components  aerospace  medical  electronic  electric power  petrochemical  nuclear   rail transport  dental  materials analysis and others  The compact program size allows easy  transfer use over networks  This training manual is intended to illustrate most of the frequently  used capability and many of the applications  Hopefully  it is helpful for both novice and expert     The reference book for all the material herein is The New Weibull Handbo
17. ok  authored  and published by Dr  Robert B  Abernethy  WinSMITH Weibull and WinSMITH Visual  software are written by Wes Fulton        You can obtain the latest version of DEMO software for no charge downloads from Wes  Fulton   s website  http   www weibullnews com  or from Paul  Barringer   s website   http   www barringerl com   You can also download an electronic copy of the latest  WeibulINEWS    newsletter published by Wes Fulton and Dr  Abernethy     See the Barringer website for general introduction to reliability in practice  the latest    Problem of the Month  and details from Dr  Abernethy   s library posted as no charge  downloadable files concerning Weibull Analysis     111    Table of Contents    General Information    SOM W ALC OC ERR Masaenaanadseravaneeeareaeieee Page 1x  Getting Started After Software Is Loaded 0 0    ccc cee e eee e eee e eee se Page x  WinSMITH Weibull Probability Plotting Software Icons  cece eens Page x  WinSMITH Visual General Plotting Software Icons  eee ee es Page xi  WinSMITH Weibull Software   le Manual RE Ch EE 3  2 Make A   Propability DEE 2  3  How To Interpret The Weibull Probability Piot    3  4  How To Import One Column Of Data From Excel TowWawW   3  5  How To Import Two Column Data From Excel With Suspensions                    4  6  Data EE acter arnt Ee 5  e IG EE 5  8  Quick Plot Using Data From Random Draw  Monte Carlo  Simulation               6  GR eege Rn al ICOM EEN 7  LO  Likelihood Ratio Test EE 7  NGN e EE 9    B
18. oom Hide  Point Set Quantity       0    ccc ccc cece cence eee e ence cece eee eeees 108  PRU OM AL TE EE 108  pre en E e 108    Vill    WSW WSYV Get Software Ready    Software Setup Details    WinSMITH    Weibull  WSW  and WinSMITH    Visual  WSV  are two different programs   They have different installation diskettes  Assume the installation diskette is placed in the A   drive  Assume the program will be setup into the C  SMITHW directory  the setup program will  make this directory   The programs are 32 bit Windows programs  These more advanced  programs will not run on the original Windows 3 0 or Windows 3 11  however they will run on  all other higher level Windows systems including Windows 95  Windows 98  Windows ME   Windows NT workstation or server  Windows 2000 workstation or server  and Windows XL   RAM requirements are modest and space required on the hard drive is also modest  Note to LAN  managers  perform the entire setup on the machine you intend to use  do not set it up on one  machine and copy the files to another machine as the installation program adds programs to the  systems directories      For each program  run its SETUP EXE file on the diskette provided  From Windows  select  START and then RUN and enter A  SETUP EXE after the path locating SETUP EXE  Or you  can use BROWSE to locate SETUP EXE on the disk  then run the SETUP EXE program  Follow  the on screen instructions given during SETUP     Starting Instructions  Start the software from the main Wi
19. orecast  6334 9  7062 8  7806 0  8564 0  9335 0  10119 3       Lambda Beta r 2  0 01 0 8 1       1 000    Time  Total Cumulative     Figure V9  WinSMITH Visual Crow AMSAA Cumulative Failure Forecast       Click on Option E  under the C A icon  will show the  failure trends for  the graph in Figure  V7 into the future  which is the basis  for a    fearless  forecast    about  failures which will  occur unless action  is taken to correct  the trend line  The  extrapolated line is  shown in Figure  V9  Remember for  Figure V9  the plot    will always increase upward with more failures and the best you can hope for is a significant improve ment which  would incur large intervals between failures which would cause the line to break sideways  If the trend line for  Figure V9 moves upward rapidly it signifies bad news with deteriorating reliability and more failure s coming    faster which is an unhappy situation     Crow AMSAA Plot        Crow rgr            Lambda Beta r 2  0 01 0 8 1          1000    Time  Total Cumulative     Figure V10  WinSMITH Visual Crow AMSAA Cumulative MTBF Plot       Clicking on Option  T under the C A  icon transforms the  Y axis from  cumulative failures  to  cum   failures   cum  time   For this case  of beta  lt  1 the  trend line will point  upward  the desired  direction  as shown  in Figure V10     Option T   s  transform will  allow he trend line  to point upward or  downward as  indicated by the  happy sad   faces   When no  improvements  occur  
20. ration files into path  XXX  Add     tYYY    for temporary file storage location as path YYY  Include a space between  entries  Please see the HELP file in the software for more command line examples     Getting Started After Software Is Loaded     Here are a couple of tips about the appearance of the software differences  For WinSMITH  Weibull  the probability plotting and analysis software  refer to Figure 1            lt  WinSMITH TM  Weibull 4 0N 32  gt     ST AE  EP  _NU  Options   Weibull  la  xi             Note the software version is numeric  the             Paint 3 revision is indicated by a alpha character and  Point5   32 indicates the software is a 32 bit system       Note the software name is WinSMITH Weibull    4    Figure 1  WinSMITH Weibull    Figure 2 shows the icons for WinSMITH Weibull     WSW  Eeer Kee fee  We  Fle      E Edi _ _  D      ftiong    A_ Analysis    B   To  ls__   H Aelp_    Weibull    HA Clee Ed    SSES     About  lt F2 gt        Figure 2  WinSMITH Weibull Icon Definitions    Look at the differences for WinSMITH Visual  the general scientific graphing and  Crow AMSAA plotting software   refer to Figure 2  Notice the name Visual and fewer icons than  for WinSMITH Weibull     ff NEN   lt  WINSMITH TS   Visual 4 0N 32  gt                  revision is indicated by a alpha character  and  32 indicates the software is a 32 bit system    Point2    Point3  Point4  PointS  Point6    Point9      4    Figure 3  WinSMITH Visual          Figure 4 shows t
21. the line will  move horizontal     The third option frequently used for display of reliability growth involves the instantaneous failure rate which is  obtained from Option T along with Option I for the instantaneous trend line  The instantaneous line and the  MTBF line will be concurrent if the condition of no change beta   1 occurs  however  if beta  lt  1  the  instantaneous line will lie above the MTBF trend line  and likewise if beta  gt  1  the instantaneous trend line will lie  below the MTBF line  The transformed MTBF line and the instantaneous trend line are shown in Figure V11     Page 22    Click Results   Minimize l l In Figure NI  p    AMSAA projecting the trend line   Crow   S Plot downward and to the left  Crow rgr a 1 will show that at time 1    8 E  r SE on the log scale the trend  i e i d Se INS  1   Tine will cross 100 which  i  EE   is equivalent to A   0 01    for the failure rate  Also  since the system is  improving the instant   taneous failure rate 1s  also growing as  displayed above the  MTBF trend line     1000       MT 3 E    ee SSE The faster the growth in   0 01 0 8 1 arr       reliability the greater is     100 1000 10000 the involvement by the  development team to  introduce improvements  and to keep them in  place SO the  instantaneous failure rate  plot clearly shows growth opportunities  the gap between the lines  derived from making improvements     10    Tame  Total Cumulative     FF    Figure V11  WinSMITH Visual Crow AMSAA Cumulative MT
22. ty   Datum    Suspension   The reminder dialog box is shown in Figure W8     WSW  ar A er re Weibull  la   gt     Data Format Datum x Format  Datum x  Quantity   Datum    eg         Data  __ NewSet___    __       Mouse pointer and tooltip reminder box       Point    pointe about data format  The memory jogger says  Point4 the data must be in Datum   age x Quantity  Points i  Pont     number of observations  If the age is a  suspension  it must be preceded by a minus       sign to signify a Suspension or censored data    4    Figure W8  WinSMITH Weibull Tooltip Reminder Box    End of the excerpts from the training manual    Page 16    WinSMITH Visual Software  Excerpts From The Manual      1  Manual Data Input   The spreadsheet becomes active when you click in the sheet  just like occurs with Excel and it changes  appearance to give you clues the sheet the sheet is active as shown in Figure V1     Delete cell s  1  Click in spreadsheet  Cut data cell s  2  Enter data here  Copy cell s  Full screen 3  Press the    Enter    key    Paste data spreadsheet    Co  Se   Data    New Set            New Set E    Accept data  entry       Spreadsheet before click Spreadsheet after click    Figure V1  WinSMITH Visual Spreadsheet  Data is enter into the plotting software in the format X scale   Y scale   Quantity  the quantity feature  is also used for a Z scale 3 dimensional plot    when the quantity is not specified  then the default value  of    1    is supplied by the software  Unlike t
23. uantity in widely   separate columns  Multiple columns can be consolidated into a single column for insertion into  WinSMITH Weibull using Excel   s CONCATENATE function     Use the Excel consolidation function    concatenate    to produce a  1 column of data in Excel  Highlight the Excel data and copy to  the clipboard  Insert the consolidated data into WinSMITH  Weibull via the paste icon     Data in column AA  in the Excel  spreadsheet IS  Age Quantity for  import as a single  The Excel consolidation function   column of data for  in column AA is pasting directly into       concatenate c1   Toi  WinSMITH   the       text function tells Excel Weibull    the information is not a math   function but rather a text symbol        Figure W7  WinSMITH Weibull Data Imported From Excel eee una Ee  consolidation  function involves use of the  amp  operator for concatenation  For example     concatenate cl         ql  in Figure W7 is equivalent to   c1 amp         amp ql1  where the parentheses  are optional with the  amp  operator but are shown here for clarity just as might occur for clarity in an  Excel spreadsheet     The concatenation function works well when many columns of data must be imported into  WinSMITH Weibull as columns of frequency data  Datum x Quantity      Page 15    6  Data Entry Reminder    When the mouse pointer is on the spreadsheet  a dialog box appears as a reminder concerning  data format  The dialog tells you the data should be in the format of Data x Quanti
24. umn of data paste icon click   the usual Windows    in Excel and paste command does not function  copy to clipboard because of the frequency table format           e Data E  ETES D  Poiti         4 an    Spreadsheet after clicking paste icon    Figure W5  WinSMITH Weibull Data Import From Excel    The pasted results will look like the data shown in the right hand side of Figure W5     Page 14    5  How To Import Two Column Data From Excel With Suspensions    In Excel  make sure the left hand column contains age to failure and the right hand column  contains the quantity  number of occurrences  of data  Copy the data from Excel and paste into  WinSMITH Weibull using the paste icon   then the WinSMITH Weibull software will  recognize the data requires some decisions and select the option that the two column data has     quantities    in the right hand using Option B to get the data shown in Figure W6     Figure W6 has  Step 1 Step 2 suspended or    censored data as          Highlight Excel Paste data by use of the paste  2 col q i i evidenced by the   column data Icon and choose option B    er  minus  den  and copy see note in Figure 9 in Excel which  e x   translates to the     gt      fi A    B     sign as shown in   1  Age To Failure  Quantity   Point JC   Figure W6  Thus  He WinSMITH  automatically put Weibull handles the  into rank order conversions   automatically    Complicated       spreadsheets may   Figure W6  WinSMITH Weibull Data 2 lmport From Excel have age and   q
    
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