Final Handicapping Process Series Part 2
Contents
1. Frandsen Publishing Presents Favorite ALL Ways Newsletter Articles Handicapping Process Series Part 2 of 6 The Keystone Plus Classifying the Favorite This six part Handicapping Process Series covers in a simple step by step manner how to develop a personal organized and efficient handicapping process that neatly coordinates with the wagering decisions that must be made This Part 2 of the series expands on what we believe to be the Keystone of every successful handicapping process More specifically it covers how to isolate the 3 or 4 horses with the best chances of winning the race and it covers how to classify the crowd favorite as either legitimate vulnerable or false If we do a good job in the Keystone part of the handicapping process all our other choices in the remainder of the process have a good chance of being effective If you have not already done so you will want to read Part 1 of this Handicapping Process Series And we suggest you also read at least the wrap up to our five part Wagering Series paying particular attention to the one page Summary Reference Sheet These articles are posted in the Newsletter Section of the Frandsen Publishing Web site more specifically in the Favorite Article Series section All past ALL Ways Newsletters as well as a Major Topic Index are posted on both the BRIS and Frandsen Publishing Web sites and they are always free Also articles already publ2. but not on the lead A 1 or 2 indicates no propensity to be on the lead or even up close at the 1st Call The handicapping charts shown on the previous page are taken from the ALL Ways Top 10 Ranking Handicapping Report This report includes sixteen different ranked handicapping factor lists five of which are shown and three Top 10 Speed Pace Performance lists which are not shown above Frequently the gaps in these lists are very easy to spot Indeed this is the case with the BRIS Prime Power ranked list and to some extent with the ALL Ways Comprehensive list as well However frequently some lists do not have glaring gaps between horses and it is important to know how to handle these situations We explain how to do so below Looking at BRIS Class There is no significant gap between horses in this ranked list Indeed there is only 1 2 points separating the top six horses This indicates that class will not be a primary determining factor in this race We do draw a line between 1 and 4 horses because there is at least a modest gap of 8 points The 4 and 8 horses would more than likely have a difficult time overcoming their modest gap disadvantage when there are six horses in the higher ranked group Looking at BRIS Speed 2 3 This is similar to the BRIS Class situation We did draw a line between the 1 and 6 horses as it is the first full 2 point gap in the list This gives us a fairly tight group of the top five horses in the list
3. First what do we mean by gap If a horse has a BRIS speed figure that is one point better than the next best speed figure horse it has a slight gap advantage of one point If a horse has a BRIS Speed figure that is five points better than the next best speed figure horse is has a major five point gap advantage In this case the second best figure horse has a five point gap disadvantage Let s look at an example from a recent race at Keeneland Our experience shows us that the gap advantages disadvantages shown on the next page are significant Gap Advantage Disadvantage Example Significant Gap Advantages Disadvantages BRIS Speed Ratings BRIS Class Ratings BRIS Combined Ratings 2 4 points 1 2 points 2 4 points BRIS CLASS PG Horse Name HOT CHA CHA CARRIBEAN SUNSET FOREVER TOGETHER WASTED TEARS QUIET HARBOR SALVE GERMAINI STARDOM BOUND TREAT GENTLY BRIS Prime Power ALL Ways Comprehensive 3 4 points 4 5 points CO BlrF DWN OI gt ONO aon OF I BRIS SPEED 2 3 COMBINED 2 3 PAR 195 Running PG Style Horse Name Horse Name Rating WASTED TEARS FOREVER TOGETHER CARRIBEAN SUNSET HOT CHA CHA SALVE GERMAINIA QUIET HARBOR STARDOM BOUND TREAT GENTLY WASTED TEARS 196 CARRIBEAN SUNSET 194 HOT CHA CHA 192 SALVE GERMAINIA 190 QUIET HARBOR 187 FOREVER TOGETHER 186 STARDOM BOUND 180 TREAT GENTLY 168 U m
4. you will still gain helpful insights from this Handicapping Process Series A number of ALL Ways handicapping factors are used in this article to illustrate the handicapping process concepts that are discussed These concepts travel well and can be used effectively with handicapping information from other sources such as the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances If you do want to try ALL Ways software as you follow this Handicapping Process Series of articles please see the box near the end of this article for how to do so Part 2 The Keystone of the Process Part 1 of this series covered Steps 1 and 2 above As promised we are now going to cover Step 2 in more depth and we will present a simple way to classify the favorite as called for in Step 3 We consider Step 2 of the handicapping process in which we isolate the top 3 or 4 candidates to win the race always including the favorite to be the Keystone of the entire handicapping process The reason for this is when you have effectively completed Step 2 all the other steps in the entire six step process become relatively easy because they logically flow from what we learn in Step 2 When Step 1 is completed we have all the horses identified that we believe are legitimate candidates to finish in the top four finish positions They are all the horses designated by ALL Ways software as Contenders plus any remaining Best Late horses plus any remaining BRIS Recent Top 10 Spe
5. 3 Critical Skills Part 3 How Are You Really Doing The Keystone Steps Part 4 Where to Go from Here Part 5 Wrapping It Up e Initial Assignments e Assign to a Group based on speed class compound pace and e Handicapping Process Series comprehensive ratings using the concept of Gap Advantage Exclude horses no longer under consideration Part 1 Isolating Contenders Part 2 Keystone of the Process Part 3 Key Decisions v M M Part 4 Getting Unstuck Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Part 5 Feedback Part 6 Wrapping It Up Top 3 or 4 Win In the Money Marginal e Fourth place itis Candidates Candidates Horses How to Avoid It Include Favorite e Race Pace Shapes e Final Assignments e The Curse of the Legitimate Move horses between groups based on suitability to surface distance Favorite the pace scenario form factors and situational changes from past e ToP to Play performance races to today s race EARE That Should Be the Question z lt poan A compilation of articles submitted by ALL Ways Top 3 or 4 Win In the Money Marginal Horses handicappers Candidates Candidates The Foundation Wagers The 2 Horse Win Wager Evaluate the Favorite Decide which group you would now assign the favorite The Win Insurance Wager If Group 1 Legitimate If Group 2 Vulnerable Show Partial Parlay Wager If Fal Group 3 False Part 1 Getting Started Key De
6. Ooloro h A 3 2 5 7 1 6 4 8 CoO S w DrRIN oO WwW U NJN UNU NIN PRIME POWER ALL Ways COMPREHENSIVE MORNING Horse Name LINE PG Horse Name FOREVER TOGETHER CARRIBEAN SUNSET HOT CHA CHA QUIET HARBOR WASTED TEARS SALVE GERMAINI STARDOM BOUND TREAT GENTLY WASTED TEARS 8 1 QUIET HARBOR 8 1 CARRIBEAN SUNSET 4 1 SALVE GERMAINIA 12S FOREVER TOGETHER 7 5 HOT CHA CHA 1 6 1 TREAT GENTLY l 10 1 STARDOM BOUND T 6 1 olah he w Ol ajn E o SO FIO oD W Notes e A horse s name in bold print indicates an ALL Ways designated Contender e An asterisk in front of a horse s name indicates an ALL Ways designated Dangerous Non Contender e The 2 3 notation means the figure is the average for the horse s best 2 out of its last 3 races e The BRIS Combined Rating is the horse s Early Pace Rating 274 Call plus Final Fraction Rating e Running Style The letter indicates E Early P Presser and S Sustainer There are no EP Early Presser horses in the race The number from O to 8 is the horse s Quirin Speed Points which measures a horse s propensity to be on or near the lead at the 1st Call An 8 rating indicates the horse wants must have the lead A 4 or 5 rating indicates the horse will likely be up close
7. cisions Part 2 Becoming an Expert Decide Pass or Play the Race Remember The Curse of the Legitimate Favorite ALL Ways Newsletters and articles making up the Favorite G 1 Article Series are posted in the rou Newsletter Section of the Frandsen Publishing Web site at Select 2 Select a Key Horse www frandsen com Non Favorite Win and or a Candidates Show Partial Parlay Horse They are free Copyright 2010 Frandsen Publishing Corporation Copyright 2010 Frandsen Publishing Corporation All Rights Reserved Email FrandsenPublishing Comcast net Web Site www frandsen com Phone 952 937 9180 Frandsen Publishing Corporation is the publisher of the quarterly ALL Ways Newsletters which are widely considered to be one of the best sources of handicapping and wagering insights available in the industry And ALL Ways Newsletters are FREE These newsletters are posted on both the BRIS and Frandsen Publishing Web sites All articles that are part of the Favorite ALL Ways Newsletter Article series are available on the Frandsen Publishing Web site All Newsletters and Major Topic Index Frandsen Publishing is also the developer of ALL Ways Handicapping Software ALL Ways is serious software for professional and serious horseplayers Phillips Racing Newsletter calls ALL Ways Software absolutely the best free handicapping tool on the market and gives ALL Ways a 9 rating the highest ever awarded And ALL Ways S
8. classic best early vs best late scenario So you can envision the 3 horse trying to hold onto the lead down the stretch run and the 2 horse trying to run the 3 down Given the very big 10 point BRIS Combined 2 3 Rating gap advantage the 3 has over the 2 we believe the 2 will have a hard time catching and passing the 3 We will look at this again further down when we get to Step 3 Evaluating the Favorite Handicapping Reports The Top 10 Ranking Report is very helpful for doing the kind of analysis we need for Step 2 of our handicapping process The report has another nice feature in that if you run the report again after the races are completed and the results entered automatically by ALL Ways software the top four finishers will be identified in each handicapping factor list on the report This is a great way to help you continuously improve your handicapping process The Pace Line Report is also a good report to use in addition to the Top 10 Ranking Report because it shows all the horses in post position order It is a good place to make your notes about each horse Finally if you are interested in a single report that has just about every handicapping consideration on one page you may want to try the Spot Play Final Process Report This report is particularly good to use with a yellow marker denoting good and an orange marker for bad The Pace Line and Spot Play reports also identify the top four finishers after
9. ding to this effort the need to also evaluate the overall situation between the horse s last 1 or 2 races and today s race You can easily accomplish this by asking and answering one of two questions 1 If the horse ran well last race is it reasonable to expect the horse to run well today or are there reasons why the horse may not do as well today 2 If the horse did not run well in its last race is it reasonable to expect the horse to run poorly today or are there reasons why the horse may do better To answer these questions we consider today s surface distance class level pace match up and track compared to the horse s last one or two races Now there is a very big special consideration in this sample race and it has to do with the pace scenario The ALL Ways Race Pace Shape of this race is E P meaning itis a Lone Early race The 3 horse is an E horse and all other horses are P or S horses all late runners The 3 horse had the highest BRIS Early Pace Rating not shown which is measured from the gate to the 24 Call Furthermore the 3 horse has the highest possible Quirin Speed Point Rating of 8 meaning it absolutely wants needs the lead at the 1st Call Without doubt the 3 horse will get a big uncontested lead on this otherwise very slow paced field The 2 horse the Morning Line favorite is a late running S horse and indeed had the highest BRIS Final Fraction Pace Rating This is a
10. ed Performances horses plus any remaining horses designated by ALL Ways software as Dangerous Non Contenders We consider Step 2 to be the Keystone because of the approach used specifically to assign every horse from Step 1 to either Group 1 win candidates including the favorite or Group 2 in the money candidates or Group 3 marginal players If we do an effective job with this step all our other decisions in the process have a good chance of being effective The elements of Step 2 we presented in our last newsletter included assigning each horse to a group based on how it looks on the Top 10 Ranking Handicapping Report for the specific factors of BRIS Class BRIS Speed 2 3 BRIS Combined 2 3 BRIS Prime Power and ALL Ways Comprehensive For turf races you should also look at BRIS Turf Class and or BRIS True Class We suggested looking for gaps in each ranked list to help determine which Group to assign the horse Then we suggested moving horses up or down between groups based on each horse s suitability to the distance and surface based on pace considerations and based on each horse s current form That is where we left off Now we are going to explore Step 2 a bit more Specifically we will look at the concept of gap advantage disadvantage we have some additional comments on situational factors and we will present some ideas for using a couple of additional ALL Ways software handicapping reports Gap Advantage Disadvantage
11. in terms of winning the race Note For more information on evaluating favorites we refer you to the Favorite ALL Ways Article Series article titled The Curse of the Legitimate Favorite Summary At this point we have completed the first 3 steps of our handicapping process More specifically we have 1 Isolated all horses having a legitimate chance to finish in the top four finish positions 2 Isolated the top 3 or 4 candidates to win the race 3 Classified the favorite as legitimate vulnerable or false Here are the actual race results Wasted Tears 3 went off at 5 to 1 and did hold on for the win against the expected challenge of Forever Together 2 that went off as the 2 to 1 favorite Hot Cha Cha 7 took the show position at 7 to 1 and Carribean Sunset 5 took 4th at 7 to 2 The 2 Exacta paid 41 40 and the 2 Trifecta paid 229 40 ALL Ways Software Gap Analyses ALL Ways Software includes a Gap Advantage Analysis of each key handicapping factor that shows how horses perform in terms of win and in the money percentages and flat bet win wager profitability based on the size of their Gap Advantage It also includes a Gap Disadvantage Analysis that shows how this performance declines as the Gap Disadvantage increases What s Next Handicapping Process Series Part 3 of 6 Key Decisions Part 3 of the series covers how to go about making the key handicapping decisions that are so critical for our s
12. ished as part of the Favorite ALL Ways Newsletter Article series are posted in the Newsletter Section on the Frandsen Publishing Web site and they are free as well See the links at the end of this article Recap Part 1 of the series discussed the important differences between Toolbox handicapping versus Black Box handicapping It also covered the important early handicapping tasks of identifying all the horses having a legitimate chance to finish in the top 4 positions and the 3 or 4 horses with the best chance of winning the race Important Reminder Your primary handicapping job is to identify in advance the two out of three races that are not won by the crowd favorite and to identify the two non favorite horses most likely to beat the favorite Reminder Here are the six sequential steps we believe should be part of an effective handicapping process Step 1 From the full field of horses isolate all horses having a legitimate chance to finish in the top four finish positions Must include the favorite Step 2 Isolate the top 3 or 4 candidates to win the race Must include the favorite Step 3 Classify the favorite as legitimate vulnerable or false Step 4 Identify the two non favorite horses most likely to beat the favorite Step 5 Identify a non favorite Key Horse Step 6 Make final handicapping decisions For Non ALL Ways Users Even if you do not currently use ALL Ways software
13. oftware is FREE More about ALL Ways Software Bloodstock Research Information Services and Frandsen Publishing Corporation are pleased to provide ALL Ways Software ALL Ways Newsletters and the Favorite ALL Ways Newsletter Articles series all for FREE brisnet com k i Bloodstock Research Information Services
14. oint gap range We also chose to draw a gap line between the 7 and 8 horses even though the specific gap is only 2 points What this does however is give us a second group of three horses all within 5 points of each other Overall we can quickly come to a few conclusions First class and speed ratings will not be the determining factors in this race at least with respect to the primary contenders Second the BRIS Combined 2 3 Rating will be important in this race Third the BRIS Prime Power and ALL Ways Comprehensive ratings evaluate the 2 and 3 horses very differently The Prime Power Rating favors the 2 horse the 7 to 5 Morning Line Favorite and drops the 3 to about the middle On the other hand the Comprehensive Rating favors the 3 horse 8 to 1 in the Morning Line and relegates the 2 horse to the middle In this case these differences are most likely because the ALL Ways Comprehensive Rating takes the pace of the race into consideration including the BRIS Combined 2 3 Rating After you have done this kind of analysis of all five factors Class Speed Combined Pace Prime Power and Comprehensive you need to use your own logic to assign each horse to one of the following groups Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Top 3 or 4 Win Candidates Includes Favorite In the Money Marginal Horses Candidates In this example 4 and 8 were already eliminated in Step 1 of our handicapping process Looking at the gap analysis above ce
15. rtainly confirms this Step 2 of our handicapping process tells us that at this point we need to include the crowd favorite in Group 1 as well as 2 or 3 additional possible winners In an eight horse field we prefer to limit Group 1 to just the favorite plus two additional horses Clearly the 3 horse must be included as it is ranked tops in BRIS Speed 2 3 BRIS Combined 2 3 and ALL Ways Comprehensive We narrowed down our third horse to go into Group 1 as either the 5 horse or the 7 horse We chose the 5 because in every ranked list except BRIS Class it was ranked slightly ahead of the 7 This means we put the 7 into Group 2 In the Money Candidates and we chose 6 for that group as well Finally we relegated the 1 horse to Group 3 Marginal Horses So here is what our groupings look like at this point Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 wi n in the money marginal 2 FOREVER TOGETHER 6 QUIET HARBOR 8 1 1 SALVE GERMAINIA 12 1 6 1 3 WASTED TEARS 7 HOT CHA CHA 5 CARRIBEAN SUNSET Remember that horses we believe do not have a chance to finish in the top 4 finish positions are not in any of these groups That is why the 4 and 8 horses are missing Also a horse can only be in one group at a time Situational Considerations In our last newsletter we discussed moving horses up and down between groups based on each horse s suitability to the distance and surface pace considerations and form considerations We are ad
16. the results are entered Note Appendix C of the User Manual explains each ALL Ways Software handicapping report Step 3 Classifying the Favorite When you reach this point in the process you are well prepared to complete Step 3 of classifying the favorite Here is a very easy and fast way to do this It really explains why we consider Step 2 to be the Keystone of our handicapping process At this point the favorite plus 2 or 3 other horses must be in Group 1 the horses with a good chance to win the race Here is the trick Even though the favorite must be in Group 1 at this point in the process in Step 2 you still want to evaluate the favorite along with all the other horses in the same way If your evaluation would have put the favorite in Group 1 anyway the favorite is Legitimate If you would have assigned the favorite to Group 2 the favorite is Vulnerable If you would have assigned the favorite to Group 3 the favorite is False In our example as explained above we certainly believe the 2 is vulnerable because it will be at a big pace disadvantage against the 3 horse that will have a big uncontested lead on the field The 10 point BRIS Combined 2 3 gap advantage of the 3 horse over the 2 horse is very strong The 2 horse while at a pace disadvantage is still a good horse with a chance to win the race and certainly with a good chance of coming in 2nd so we would not consider it as false But it is vulnerable
17. uccess as we move from handicapping to wagering This includes identifying the two non favorite horses with the best chance to beat the favorite and identifying a good Key Horse to use in our wagers For Non ALL Ways Users If you ever thought of giving ALL Ways software a try now is a great time to do it This will let you follow this Handicapping Process Series to gradually ease into the use of ALL Ways software while at the same time developing a personal profitable handicapping and wagering process We suggest new ALL Ways software users visit the What s New Page on the Frandsen Publishing Web site and click the link to Getting Started With ALL Ways When you are there we suggest you print and read the short paper on How ALL Ways Works and also note the options presented for a Fast Track approach an Accelerated Track approach and an As You Go approach Note that you can download ALL Ways Software for free from the Free Software Page on the BRIS Web site When you install the software it automatically includes a sample race card data file that you can use to explore the concepts presented in the Handicapping Process Series ALL Ways Newsletter Handicapping Process Series Reference Sheet Supporting Favorite Articles Full Field of Horses e Wagering Series Isolate All Contenders for the Top 4 Finish Positions Part 1 Realistic Expectations Part 2
18. with only a 3 point spread between them indicating that their speed ratings will not be a major determining factor between the top 5 BRIS Speed ranked horses We also chose to draw a line between the 4 and 8 horses because of the 3 point gap Looking at BRIS Combined 2 3 We chose to draw our first gap line between the 7 and 1 horses The gap is only 2 points but it gives us a group of three horses at the top within a 4 point range We also draw a line between the 2 and 4 horses with a very large gap of 6 points This gives us a second group of three horses within 5 points of each other This BRIS Combined 2 3 ranked list clearly tells us to discount the 4 and 8 horses Looking at BRIS Prime Power The BRIS Prime Power Rating represents a comprehensive overall evaluation of each horse There is a glaring 11 1 point gap between the 2 and 5 horses There are also significant gaps between the 7 and 6 horses 5 5 points and between the 4 and 8 horses 3 6 points Looking at ALL Ways Comprehensive The ALL Ways Comprehensive Rating is similar to the BRIS Prime Power Rating in that it is an overall evaluation of each horse However it uses a different approach than the BRIS rating and we have learned over time to always look at both of them They are very powerful when used together See ALL Ways Newsletter 13 We draw our first gap lines between the 5 and 1 horses 4 points This gives us a top group of three horses within a 4 p
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