Home

Offboard Navigation

1. 5 29 14 0 12 37 12 0 B75 10 0 72 8 0 6 0 4 0 2 0 I 0 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source NAVTECH Internal Analysis million units Market Size and Growth Rates What is the relative size of each of the business sectors and how are the estimates of market size developed We use the current GSM SMS Global System of Mobile Communication Short Message Service Provides for 160 character messages between GSM handsets or between a GSM handset and an information source Messages are entered via the handset s keypad or via add on keyboards such as Tegic s T9 or Ericsson s Chatboard GSM Data CDPD Cellular Digital Packet Data A method for sending packet data over analogue networks Requires specific network equipment that now covers 85 of North America to support wireless Internet connections GPRS General Packet Radio Service for GSM enables more efficient use of radio resources leading to increased capacity and higher speed data services UMTS Universal Mobile Telecommunication System Also known as 3G for 3rd Generation Officially IMT 2000 WCDMA Wide band CDMA Supported by GSM countries and Japan CDMA One Developed by Qualcomm MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 EEE SS OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 35 navigation system market as the base In this market the automotive OEM s sell over 60 of
2. TOM TOM GO CMI GPS Navigator 755 with PDA and one city or metro area map in US Navigon Mobile Navigator Navigon 799 with PDA and country maps large Benefon Personal Navigation Benefon 734 with phone with built in GPS Variable map data price Navman GPS 3450 Europ 1268 with iPAQ5550 GPS Car kit Navman GPS 4400 1345 with iPAQ5550 Bluetooth GPS Car kit DigiMax 769 without Palm PDA with Bluetooth GPS European data MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 T OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 33 Appendix B Navigation System Market Statistics Since 1997 navigation systems sales have increased significantly especially in Europe and have continued their steady penetration in Japan The total value of navigation systems and data sold worldwide in 2002 was approximately 6 billion Automated in vehicle systems come in many forms o Autonomous on board navigation systems that have all the data and applications software inside the vehicle They are self sufficient and require no connections to outside information or process sources Integrated Systems that are part of the design of the vehicle and are developed with the automotive OEM They are mostly factory installed requiring special connections to audio systems odometer and other sensors and integration into the vehicle s display
3. Telmap Telcontar and a growing number of others Together these companies are developing a navigation system model that they believe can work equally well inside a moving vehicle and in the hands of a pedestrian user As have said some of the established players are trying to adapt the technology of off board navigation but they appear to have missed the fact that they are a target of the competitive value network not a valued potential partner And the disruptive players possess the key ingredient for success the infrastructure for delivering the applications to the in vehicle user What they lack is permission from the vehicle OEM s to integrate this infrastructure with the vehicles systems If there were standards for in vehicle information systems and there are not the competitors would not need permissions If the established networks could build the infrastructure on their own and they cannot or will not they would be able to fight off the competitors by making off board navigation a sustaining rather than a disruptive development 23 Value Network refers to the group of companies working with and profiting from a given technology or service 24 Clayton M Christensen The Innovator s Dilemma When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail Boston MA Harvard Business School Press 1997 MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 OFF BOARD NAVIGATION Appendix A Exa
4. in on board data storage and computer processing hardware Media production and handling cost is a major expense for the OEM s and this is an ideal place to look for savings When these costs are passed on to the customer they result in map media prices that are up to four times higher than the cost of map data received from map data suppliers Each on board system currently requires its own special map data format System developers charge the OEM for compiling the raw map data into this format each time a map update or a new software release is made Assuming that each OEM does not have its own special off board format compilation costs can be eliminated from the OEM equation with off board navigation 16 Telematics is two way communication between a vehicle and a service center Data communications is a pre requisite for all services Voice communications is necessary for some functions desirable for others non essential for most Adding a positioning device in the vehicle and mapping capabilities at the service center enables a range of location based services to be provided MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 c OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 12 In addition to compilation putting the CD or DVD into the OEM s parts catalogue along with luggage racks wiper blades and floor mats involves a cost for the OEM While it is also an income opportunit
5. At the end of 2003 the number of navigation systems in operation in Europe is projected to be approximately 5 4 million By contrast in the US the cumulative number of units in operation at the end of 2003 is projected to be just 1 million In Japan 4 4 million navigation systems were sold in 2002 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 AUGUST 24 2004 MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 Michael L Sena Consulting AB Mobility Research Report Off board Navigation More irresistible than on board My navigation system an early prototype of the Volvo RTI System with integrated RDS TMC traffic information was temporarily out of service The CD drive had jammed and was waiting for replacement parts So like most of my fellow travellers was driving without any special assistance had left the office was visiting before the normal rush hour traffic should have started There are two routes connecting the northern side of G teborg to the north south motorway that eventually delivers me to my home and office south of the city One route passes through a tunnel under the G te River that separates the two halves of the city This tunnel route merges along the way with two motorways that meet at either end of the tunnel always causing traffic problems at peak travel times The other route leads over a bridge crossing the river through another tunnel and to a ring
6. airport sports arena etc 6 City and highway maps are based on finding places using street signage as the principal guide Before route numbers which were first used in the UK in 19217 and in the US in 1926 major roads were usually named after the principal destination such as the Boston Post Road or a geographic location like the Blue Ridge Parkway Mohawk Trail Dixie Highway Pikes Peak Ocean to Ocean Highway or after a road building authority like the Pennsylvania Turnpike e Paper maps and atlases are the most common tools used by people all over the world to find their way in unfamiliar places Map reading is not a skill that everyone learns or that everyone can master It requires a significant amount of mental gymnastics to relate a three dimensional world to a two dimensional representation of that world It is difficult enough to use a map while on foot but it is a dangerous practice for a driver riding alone to try to use a map while the car is in motion In 1911 the American Automobile Association started publishing road maps They were not standard topographic maps but consisted of route descriptions describing where an automobile and its passengers could travel in relative safety This concept was eventually developed into the AAA TripTik In 2002 the total value of maps sold worldwide was 2 5 billion 8 e People in the vicinity The last mile whether it s delivering broadband services or reaching a specific
7. continue Independent So called aftermarket systems they can be installed in a similar way as a hands free telephone but require more space for display disk drive and memory management unit They can be moved between vehicles but they depend on connections to vehicle systems odometer sensors audio for operation aoe Independent aftermarket system TomTom Go Semi autonomous on board navigation systems The systems can be integrated or independent and combine real time traffic data delivery via radio or cellular network with on board data storage Off board navigation Deliver routing instructions and the necessary associated data via wireless data systems GSM SMS GSM Data CDPD GPRS UMTS from remote service providers 10 GSM Global System of Mobile Communication GSM is global operating in over 200 countries not US and Japan 900 1800 Mhz GSM SMS Global System of Mobile Communication Short Message Service Provides for 160 character messages between GSM handsets or between a GSM handset and an information source Messages are entered via the handset s keypad or via add on keyboards such as Tegic s T9 or Ericsson s Chatboard GSM Data CDPD Cellular Digital Packet Data A method for sending packet data over analogue networks Requires specific network equipment that now covers 85 of North America to support wireless Internet connections GPRS General Packet Radio Service for GS
8. destination is usually the most difficult part The stereotype of male drivers in the US is that they would rather drive around for hours in circles rather than stop and ask a local for assistance In my experience this In Route Guidance Systems Luxury Convenience or Necessity addressed the topic of signage with examples of how signs can either reinforce or work against the physical structure of a city and either enable or work against intuitive navigation 7 Brief History of the Numbering System of UK Roads James Bufford A 1919 Act of Parliament provided funding for roads to the Ministry of Transport By 1921 the MOT had identified the system for England and classified 97 main A roads with one and two digit numbers The formal classification was published in 1923 by HMSO in a booklet and the Ordnance Survey of Great Britain published a series of maps for MOT which included the road numbers The numbers were placed on road signs at the same time 8 This is an estimate provided by one of the leading experts in cartography and map publishing Dr Michael W Dobson MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 I g aaa ut yzygy OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 4 is an unfair characterisation Its male drivers everywhere in the world and according to a survey published a few years ago in a mapping trade journal quite a number of female drivers as well 9 The
9. fee is usually paid at the start of the year and the customer submits monthly or quarterly reports on the actual number sold The customer tries to keep the minimum low while the data supplier offers lower unit volumes if total volume and prepaid license fee amount are higher OEM purchasing departments attempt to pay suppliers when a part or accessory is delivered The distributors hold stock and deliver when ordered MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 a SaaS OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 14 message uses its location as the decryption code Valid locations might be all geographic coordinates within a three kilometre radius of the message sender Compared to using sensor data to gauge traffic flow or even direct reporting by police to traffic control centres such a method of informing nearby drivers about an incident must be quicker and much more effective It would have the immediate effect of keeping other drivers out of the area making it easier for assistance to arrive and get the problems fixed in a shorter period of time When the cars are no longer blocking traffic they can send a The coast is clear message A company in Arlington Virginia called GeoCodex is commercialising this geoencryption process The main applications that they see in the short term are distributing movies The geographic location of the film receiver provides the code for unscrambling the movie and each l
10. installation approx 2 hours cost 100 e Subsequent years 49 Euro 75 per year If customer requested 200 routes per year cost to customer would be 0 24 Euro 0 38 per route e First year subscription for services UK only General How Smartnav works There is a button in the car with a telephone microphone speaker and speech synthesizer The user pushes the button and gets connected to the Trafficmaster call centre When the call is made the position of the vehicle is passed to the call centre using GSM SMS The call taker asks the user where he wants to go The call taker calculates the route on their workstation I do not know what system they are using It is either Motorola s or their own The route instructions plus some form of road representation are packaged and sent back to the vehicle and the voice connection is closed down The instructions and the data are stored on board the vehicle There is some form of spatial filter map matching on board so the system knows where the vehicle is on the road network As the user drives the instructions are given by voice synthesis There is no display no icons no maps just voice have used the system and it is extremely difficult to follow a route You never know if you have made the correct manoeuvre until the system tells you that you are off course It tries to re route you back to the original route so there is probably a corridor of data but most often it
11. of coverage say Germany or the UK is around 150 CDs are able to hold 675 megabytes of data Some navigation system vendors have been able to pack Germany a relatively large country with the most detailed attributes and road coverage on a single CD while others require two A DVD holds a few gigabytes and can be loaded with all of Europe A DVD covering all of Europe costs approximately 310 400 The number of navigation system owners who update their on board CD based media has been around 10 15 No one should be surprised that the majority of customers are not anxious to pay over 100 or 200 for an update to their data The number who will pay over 300 for a DVD update is very likely to be much lower especially since few customers need more than the area in the vicinity of their home and work They are paying a huge premium for information that they will never use In fact an informal survey made of automotive OEM s confirms that the aftersale market for DVD based navigation media has collapsed Instead of being a positive development for customers system developers OEM s and data suppliers DVDs have turned out to be a major problem for everyone Off board Navigation Systems One alternative to making autonomous systems dynamic is to move the entire data assembly and processing task to centralised servers and provide drivers with routing information that already accounts for the current traffic conditions This is the off b
12. problem with asking is that we have to remember what we ve been told and we rarely can So one stop becomes two or three before we narrow in on the target e Radio Landmarks signs passers by and maps None of these methods provides the least amount of assistance to a driver who needs to avoid trouble spots or to find a hidden destination One information source available to most drivers the radio does offer some relief to the dearth of information in the driving capsule but it is usually only a chance happening that the right channel is tuned in at exactly the right time In Europe with RDS TMC the radio tuner automatically receives traffic message broadcasts These usually come at exactly the wrong moment in a radio program when a major news item is being described or when the final score of your favourite team is being given and concern a road that is not in the driver s vicinity But sometimes when the stars are properly aligned it can be magic e Telephone The mobile phone is the single most important driver aid since the public telephone booth But using the phone to get directions has its problems It is almost the same with phoning up the party you are visiting as with asking a passer by but it s even worse First you have to admit you are lost to someone you know You also have to know where you are and then communicate this intelligently to the person who will try to guide you They have to visualise this create a
13. road on the southern perimeter of the city chose the tunnel under the river route because it is almost three kilometres shorter than the other route and it should have been free flowing at the time was driving 3 00 P M especially on a weekday in July when most people were still on their long summer holidays As drove up the ramp to merge onto the main road saw that traffic was moving very slowly It was too late to turn back Without traffic would have been through the tunnel in less than five minutes One hour later was on the other side Two overheated cars the temperature on this July day was an unusually high thirty degrees Celsius and one accident were the causes of the delays thought if only could have flown up above the city as was leaving the office could have seen which route was the better of the two to take If only could have talked to someone already on the road as approached it could have turned in the other direction If only a driver at the front of the queue could have passed back the information to everyone behind we would all have been better off at least knowing why we were stuck on this road in the hot afternoon sun If only my navigation system with traffic information was working During the day had received the latest J D Power report on what consumers are supposed to want most from vehicle based 3 RDS TMC RDS TMC stands for Radio Data System Traffic Message Channel TMC
14. screen CD DVD drive and user machine interface Systems that are automotive OEM options comprise two thirds of the systems delivered today in all three major markets Japan Europe and North America This trend is expected to continue Independent So called aftermarket systems they can be installed in a similar way as a hands free telephone but require more space for display disk drive and memory management unit They can be moved between vehicles but they depend on connections to vehicle systems odometer sensors audio for operation o Semi autonomous on board navigation systems The systems can be integrated or independent and combine real time traffic data delivery via radio or cellular network with on board data storage o Off board navigation Deliver routing instructions and the necessary associated data via wireless data systems GSM SMS GSM Data CDPD GPRS UMTS from 25 In Europe 1 3 million navigation systems were sold in 2002 one third as aftermarket systems and two thirds as OEM installed systems In 2003 total sales increased to 1 6 million units At the end of 2003 the number of navigation systems in operation in Europe was approximately 5 4 million units By contrast in the US the cumulative number of units in operation at the end of 2003 was just 1 million In Japan 12 2 million navigation systems were installed by the end of 2003 with 3 15 million sold during 2003 6 This is our own estima
15. them standard fit Much of this growth will come from developing countries where navigation systems will not be available for many years in the future partly because of cost and partly because of the lack of data availability Types of vehicles sold The luxury car segment will share in this growth and support a steady increase in navigation systems It is more likely that other luxury car makers will incorporate navigation systems in an option package rather than making them standard The situation is different in North America where it is more common for a dealer to order cars for display to attract buyers rather than to build cars to customer specification Buyers in the US are used to comparative shopping 28 Infotainment is used widely in the automotive industry to describe a combination navigation audio and video platform MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 pue aaa ee OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 36 and buying what they see rather than ordering a car and waiting for several weeks or months for delivery For the US market it is more likely that navigation systems will be standard fit in a model range Technical capabilities A major breakthrough for navigation systems in the US and Europe will occur only when these systems are no longer just convenience devices but are integrated into the driving functions in a way that makes them indispensable driving aids Drivers in these re
16. M enables more efficient use of radio resources leading to increased capacity and higher speed data servicesUMTS Universal Mobile Telecommunication System Also known as 3G for 3rd Generation Officially IMT 2000 footnote continued MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 SSS OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 6 The hardware for display processing and storage can be the same as the on board systems or it can consist of portable devices such as personal digital assistants PDAs or wireless handsets The critical addition to the hardware package is a telecommunications module Hybrid navigation combines off board delivery of static and or dynamic data with some form of on board data storage and applications support software No Infrastructure Required Infrastructure Required o o o c o 2 o a WW re o o c o c o a Wi re Automated in vehicle system product groups The total value of navigation systems and data sold worldwide in 2002 was approximately 6 billion Why Navigation Systems from the OEM Before discussing the details of navigation systems would like to first address an obvious question Why have the automotive OEMs gone to all of the trouble and cost of redesigning their vehicles to integrate navigation systems As stated above the majority of systems delivered to customers are built into the vehic
17. Michael L Sena Consulting AB Mobility Research Report Off board Navigation More irresistible than on board Original Date of Writing July 11 2003 s REF GENERAL POSP007_VO7 Note This Mobility Research Report is provided to the recipient on the condition that it is not copied or distributed in any form without the express written consent of the author The Mobility Research Report is Copyrighted Michael L Sena MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB Asa Stationsv g 22 S 430 31 Asa Sweden Phone 46 340 656 890 Fax 46 340 656 880 Mobile 46 733 961 341 E MAIL ml sena mlscab se AUGUST 24 2004 Preface ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT Mobility Research Reports are intended to generate discussion within the Intelligent Transport Systems ITS community The community is defined in its broadest scope and_ includes environmental and city planners and map and travel guide publishers as well as the individuals associated with organizations that have thus far been the drivers behind ITS efforts This widening of the forum for discussion is recognition of the important role that can be played by those who are responsible for designing the environments in which ITS solutions will operate and by those who have traditionally provided the tools used for human orientation and wayfinding Each paper expresses the personal views of the author with a focus on the i
18. Nav system and service in the UK operates in a similar fashion The difference is that the driver has the system installed in the vehicle The on board device consists of the positioning and telecommunications hardware with the associated software A single SmartNav button is installed at a convenient location on the instrument panel The driver pushes the button and receives a similar service as with Avis Assist The Motorola voice only system requires perfect map data and absolutely perfect timing and clearly stated instructions otherwise the driver will become lost after the first missed turn When tested the system neither the data the timing nor the instructions had reached the necessary level of perfection Traditional on board system vendor Blaupunkt a subsidiary of Robert Bosch in Germany has not waited to be one upped by start MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 l OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 11 ups They have developed an off board system that is integrated with a 1 DIN radio module It includes GSM GPRS and GPS components as well as a special antenna that combines radio GPS and telephone receivers The small display is used to show manoeuvre icons and names of streets landmarks and points of interest A SIM card holder is built into the back of the radio so that the users insert their own SIM cards and pay for communications separately from the services The first aftermarket ser
19. a fee to the hardware manufacturer or the vehicle OEM for a code that allows for decrypting the location code information 15 Floating car data systems collect travel time information from vehicles that are equipped with positioning technology and wireless data communications The vehicles send their positions and speed data to a central processing point where the data is matched to digital maps The result is a map of average speeds along segments of the road network MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 a ad OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 9 then be delivered to each navigation system supplier for conversion to their particular physical storage format PSF on a CD or DVD or other storage medium and eventually supplied to the navigation systems owners Even in the best of cases from the time the navigation system vendor delivers the data to the system supplier until a new release of a CD DVD reaches a navigation system customer six months will have passed It can take longer The navigation system supplier will have updated the data within three to six months of when it is delivered to the system supplier so this adds further to the lack of currency Taking advantage of the best available traffic information requires constant re supply of new on board media by the navigation system suppliers and continuous purchases of this new data by the customers The average cost of a CD for a geographic region
20. and have continued their steady penetration in Japan However they are still luxury items Volume sales have not materialised Larger display screens better user interfaces increased map area coverage and on board storage have contributed to making them better navigation aids but their fundamental design has not changed Now even before in vehicle navigation systems have reached the mass market there is a new type of system that is being readied for a possible market introduction will use the term off board navigation to describe the new system Perhaps it is because the integrated self contained on board systems continue to be too expensive and still not yet performing as a truly dependable personal guide that lower cost alternatives are being sought The questions that this Off board Navigation Mobility Research Report will explore are whether off board systems have a price performance proposition that will allow them to succeed in reaching the mass market whether they can offer an acceptable level of guidance what the trade offs are with the on board systems and what the prospects are for the off board variation to supplant the on board model Route Guidance Systems Luxury Convenience or Necessity October 9 1997 In Europe 1 3 million navigation systems were sold in 2002 one third as aftermarket systems and two thirds as OEM installed systems In 2003 total sales are projected to increase to 1 6 million units
21. arket Product Trends Media Radio Nav monochrome systems CD is still predominant close to 100 Colour display systems most new systems are using DVD Close to 70 of AM system should be with DVD in 2003 AM Colour Systems Colour DVD HE Colour CD QUE 168 E E 60 o EE 2001 MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 aeee OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 40 Notes MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004
22. ased devices but it extends as well to on board systems The customer also has the possibility of combining information that is stored in other data sources both personal e g address book and public e g Yellow Pages making the address input process faster and more accurate The Navigation System Supplier Perspective It might be assumed that the system suppliers have the least to gain by putting all of the data off board on a central server Proprietary system hardware is potentially reduced thereby reducing the price for the system and hence the gross margins On board applications are possibly minimised or performed completely off board lowering the value added by the system supplier Surely system suppliers will be against off board systems Not necessarily The largest threat to incumbent system suppliers is that upstarts will take their OEM business Companies like Siemens VDO Visteon Delphi Blaupunkt Denso Magneti Marelli and Mitsubishi Electric among others are trying to sell ever larger components to the OEM and control more Tier2 subcontractors This has been a demand placed on the Tier1 s by the OEM s The incumbent system suppliers not the small software houses or MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 pne SaaS OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 13 application service providers are in the best position to sell off board solutions to the OEM s They have the economies of sca
23. different opinions on what constitutes a navigation system and who was first to introduce one The Etak Travel Pilot came out in the early 1980 s It displayed the position of the vehicle on a map along with the destination It did not provide turn by turn instructions but used vector map data and provided a heading up display Japanese manufacturers introduced map display systems even earlier also without turn by turn instructions using waypoint routing instead The first turn by turn instruction systems were developed by Bosch and Philips now Siemens VDO in the late 1980 s The first commercial turn by turn systems in North America and Europe were introduced in the mid 1990 s the Magellan NeverLost system originally developed by Zexel the Bosch TravelPilot originally based on Etak technology and the Philips Carin System MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 EEE OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 3 the Japanese navigation system manufacturers with help from the digital mapmaker Zenrin e Signage When roads were few signs at crossroads were sufficient to point the traveller in the right direction Some signs several hundred years old in Europe and two or three hundered in North America can still be seen today in small villages at crossroads When properly done and intelligently employed signs can be a most effective means to direct drivers to important places e g city centre train station
24. ection is closed When more data is needed a new connection needs to be made This happens via a modem At 9 6 or 14 6 kilobits per second kbps transfer times are slow and data amounts severely limited So companies compete on the basis of their data compaction techniques to stuff as much voice and text and graphics as possible into the first download They also compete on their speed in preparing the data for sending on the server side Packet switched data e g GPRS or I mode allows an always on connection to access additional data and the user is charged only when data is transferred not for holding the connection Data speeds are higher and the volume of data that can be sent is greater However maintaining a connection in a moving vehicle is not a trivial undertaking and there is no guarantee that when more data is needed a GPRS connection will be possible 3G coverage today covers a small fraction of the geographic area in markets where it is being developed so it is not really an option for anything but limited in city origins and destinations Crash worthiness is a problem but not more problematic than the hands free telephone In case of an accident handsets or PDA s housed in cradles will fly about the cabin But cars are filled with objects that their owners bring into them that are potentially more lethal than these communication devices Turning navigation into a service function from a system function adds a comp
25. eland General Wayfinder is sold in Sweden through a mail order centre based in Stockholm Dustin AB found this information on the Wayfinder web site It is not available through retail outlets phoned Dustin and ordered Wayfinder It arrived in one week by express mail delivery A box consisting of a Bluetooth GPS device with a carrying case car outlet adaptor wall socket battery loading cable two socket adaptors user manual quick guide manual and customer number were in the box In addition received a one year subscription to a single country for routing purposes The total cost was 5100SEK 3985 for the software 95 for freight 1020 for VAT The price in Euros is around 550 Telephone Purchase Wayfinder works on Nokia phones 7650 and 3650 and SonyEricsson P800 bought the Nokia 3650 A two year binding agreement with Vodafone brought the cost of the phone down from 4600SEK MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 21 pne SaaS Sa OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 22 to 1800SEK already had my subscription with Vodafone for the phone would be retiring so it was no problem to continue with Vodafone for the new phone Phone Set up There was no problem getting the phone set up to communicate with Wayfinder It uses an Internet not WAP connection downloaded all the connections from the Vodafone site and then selected Vodafone Internet when connecting with Wayfind
26. er Wayfinder Set up Once the phone was ready entered the special Wayfinder site for new customers and registered my phone keyed in the number that came in the box 16 characters and a setup file was automatically sent to my phone via SMS and an icon set up on my menu grid GetWayfinder clicked on this icon and it started the set up program The biggest problem was selecting the correct Vodafone connection It took me a while to figure out that it had to be Vodafone Internet and could not be Vodafone GPRS which is WAP But after getting over that hurdle it functioned smoothly The program was downloaded to my phone and another icon appeared on my menu grid Wayfinder MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 OFF BOARD NAVIGATION PTV 3SOFT Product Name Contact PTV Retail Price DaimlerChrysler A Class 1 600 DaimlerChrysler Smart 1 400 Continuation Price Included in Price e iPaq e Mobile Phone e GPS e Unlimited Routing Available Markets Description General Telephone Purchase Phone Set up Set up MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 OFF BOARD NAVIGATION Trafficmaster and Motorola Product Name Contact Retail Price Continuation Price Included in Price Available Markets Description Smartnav Trafficmaster Cranfield UK 499 excluding installation
27. fails Then you need to push the button again and start all over Optional Services Stolen Vehicle Tracking 8 per MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 24 OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 25 month Location of Speed Enforcement Cameras 6 per month Smartnav for OEM s System sold in the UK Mitsubishi Motors Retail Price 524 Chrysler and Jeep Retail Price 749 The best available comparison between on board and off board systems for pricing purposes is with Smartnav Even though this system is voice only we have both hardware and service as separate costs The retail price for an on board system is between one and a half to five times greater than for Smartnav Assuming that the Smartnav database is updated at least once per year and an on board system user purchased an updated CD once per year an on board system user would pay at least double the price annually for up to date data of a single geographic area as for the annual Smartnav subscription The question is whether the pricing for the Smartnav system is sustainable With the on board systems the map data suppliers have never lost money They charged their 50 per CD delivered to their OEM or system developer customer The system developers and automotive OEM s had very large sunk costs for development However ignoring the sunk costs the automotive OEM s report that they are earnin
28. g money on the sale of navigation systems Tier 1 suppliers have very low margins no matter what they are selling so they may not be earning significant profits They will continue to develop and supply these systems because they offer them the chance to sell additional systems Telephone Purchase Phone Set up Smartnavr Set up MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 i OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 26 MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 _ ea OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 27 Name Product Name Contact Retail Price Continuation Price e The second year is A region is defined as follows Scandinavia Denmark Norway and Finland Germany Belgium Luxembourg and The Netherlands Germany Austria Switzerland and the Czech Republic Italy Austria and Switzerland France Luxembourg Belgium and The Netherlands Spain and Portugal United Kingdom Great Britain and N Ireland Included in Price Available Markets Description General Telephone Purchase Phone Set up Polaris Set up MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 A OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 28 Name Product Name Contact Retail Price Continuation Price e The second year is A region is defined as follows Scandinavia Denmark Norway and Finland Germany Belgium Luxembourg and The Netherla
29. gions can find their way to destinations without navigation systems using address directories and maps The situation is different in Japan where the lack of street addresses makes navigation systems much more of a necessity This is reflected in purchase statistics Advanced driver assistance systems ADAS that will begin to appear at the end of the decade will incorporate navigation and ADAS data supply in a single module Route planning will be used to support the calculation of an electronic horizon for ADAS as well as for producing route guidance for the driver Wireless communications As the usage of GPRS spreads and as network operators finalise their roaming agreements GPRS will replace GSM SMS as the message bearer This will increase the range of services that can be provided Gradually also 3G will be introduced This technology will simply make it easier and faster to download large amounts of data to the vehicle and enable new services that cannot be contemplated with today s 2G and 2 5G technology What factors could influence growth rates in the future The biggest influence on growth rates will be government actions Government authorities will increasingly view navigation systems as part of a total ITS solution that is an alternative to investing in infrastructure or adding personnel Automatic speed controls installed on vehicles is a substitute for police speed controls and installation and maintenance of cameras and i
30. hand off problem not improve it On price performance on board systems will have the advantage for the next three to five years Quality of Guidance Some off board navigation systems are better than others Those that are in my opinion the best deliver vector data to the on board device offer supplemental positioning processes to improve road following performance allow re routing without needing to return to the server and provide a visual display with turn manoeuvres and or a full colour map These systems offer the user a guidance experience that is as good as or better than the first generation CD based full colour map systems have had one of these early CD based 21 ADAS stands for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems which include functions like curve warning braking assistance steering of headlights around curves lane departure warning and other active safety features For a good catalogue of the systems that were available in 2002 see a report by Secured By Design Ltd European Telematics The European market and trends for on board and off board navigation systems While do not believe that the report relates very much to its title nor does it have much to say about telematics it provides a very good description of the various systems and is worth the price for that purpose MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 TS OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 18 systems in my own car f
31. ies had to have it No company can afford to have their customers and the automotive press criticising them for missing an important feature The systems might also be mandated by law in some markets like seat belts or become an expected driver aid like cruise control or ABS or come to be viewed as an indispensable car feature like a radio In the early days no one really knew what would happen with navigation On the offensive side many believed in the intrinsic logic of navigation systems They saw them as necessary features and features are a big part of selling cars Renault engineering for example had three goals for its recent major overhaul of its car range that has taken place during the past several years Innovate Improve performance in terms of development times and costs and Increase the level of features for each vehicle Car manufacturers championed the development of navigation systems within their companies because they truly believed that these systems would eventually become must haves by all drivers Future sales would cover the costs and the add profit to the company s bottom line Thirdly the OEM has a strong incentive to control anything that enters the vehicle and to earn money on it Parts and accessories accounts for a large part of the profit that is earned by automotive companies today up to 80 in some companies The car itself has become the razor blade holder and parts and accessories the
32. it is with the integrated on board solution Every OEM customises their integrated on board navigation systems A Siemens VDO system in a Renault is different from a Siemens VDO system in a BMW The OEMs pay a price for these custom solutions the biggest being the added cost for proprietary data formats and OEM specific media This proprietary approach eliminates the economies of scale that could result from a common format With off board solutions the OEM would have to tie itself to a specific service solution and restrict hardware access to keep the brand connection As soon as customers see their neighbour s new car with newer and better services they are going to want to switch just like they switch Internet service providers and network operators when they learn that prices are lower or services are better than their current providers Off board is No Magic Solution to Interoperability An argument is being made by some that an off board alternative will solve the problem of map data media interoperability Today unlike the CD audio or DVD video industry it is not possible for navigation map data provided by one system supplier on CD or DVD to be used in other systems All formats are proprietary It is similar to the situation in the video game market with each system e g Nintendo Microsoft or Sony requiring its specially formatted software and data Those who believe that an off board alternative to autonomous systems is the ans
33. lar to the best high end autonomous systems On a Java enabled mobile phone such as a Nokia 6310i 7650 Motorola T720 Sony P800 or Siemens S45i the detail is reduced to improve clarity On board equipment for off board navigation like these from Telmap and PTV includes at a minimum some form of display screen for maps or manoeuvres an audio adapter a positioning device GPS receiver and a communications interface It can be as simple as a mobile phone with a built in GPS or a PDA a Bluetooth phone and a Bluetooth GPS device It can be more car friendly with a hands free set connections to the audio system in the vehicle and special hardware for positioning and map matching Motorola has developed an off board navigation system called Viamoto that it has implemented in conjunction with Avis Car Rental in the US Avis Assist and with Trafficmaster in the UK SmartNav In the Avis instance the in vehicle system is a Motorola GPS enabled Iden i88s mobile handset with Viamoto software Drivers who rent the handset speed dial a special number and use the speakerphone to request a destination address or place The call is taken by an operator at Unity Call Centre Group who have access to Motorola s off board navigation server The operator inputs the route request and the result is then downloaded to the Motorola phone The driver is then given voice instructions which are synchronised with the phone s GPS positioning The Smart
34. le to deliver the off board services and the mandate to integrate all of the necessary hardware components The Map Data Supplier Perspective Map data suppliers make money when data is sold in the form of application information Whether the customer is receiving this information from a CD DVD or via a map server should not matter to the map data supplier Their pricing models should cover both delivery methods so that they are revenue neutral given the same number of customers Off board systems should in theory shorten the time between data availability and customer usage and shorten the time between when they deliver data and when they are paid The principal advantage of off board navigation for map suppliers is the promise of larger numbers of users This will result when both system and data prices can be reduced to mass market levels There is a greater chance of achieving this with an off board navigation solution claim the proponents of off board navigation The Added Benefits of Connectivity The benefits of connectivity that off board navigation systems bring to the vehicle extend far beyond receiving directions to places to which the driver wants to travel Having a communications device in the vehicle opens the door for a host of driver and vehicle centric services Remember my traffic problem in G teborg when could have made a better choice of route had known about the accident and overheated cars that caused m
35. les Why haven t they just let the navigation system developers get on with their work and allowed the customer to choose whichever system they feel meets their requirements and their pocketbook These systems have been costly to develop both for the OEM and the system supplier and they are troublesome to integrate No one will WCDMA Wide band CDMA Supported by GSM countries and Japan CDMA One Developed by Qualcomm This is my own estimate double checked with many industry experts MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 pne SSS OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 7 release official figures but internal development costs to prepare their vehicles for integration of navigation system has cost each OEM in the many tens of millions of dollars On top of this the OEM s have paid their system supplier for improvements and modifications to the systems so that it meets the OEM s specific requirements Even further they have spent large sums on database preparation and conversion costs ranging from 10 to 30 of the customer price for a CD or DVD They now have recurring costs for software updates and system improvements Still they do it They continue to build navigation systems into their vehicles The reason given by the majority of OEMs is that they began their developments for both defensive and offensive reasons On the defensive side even if one company had navigation all the compan
36. letely new dimension to the application Who provides the service how is quality guaranteed how is the service paid for who pays for communication costs These are just of few of the issues that need to be addressed by the OEM On board navigation is simple the customer makes a one time payment for the system when the car is purchased receives the desired map data and may never have any reason to worry about the system again unless it malfunctions or he or she wants a data update or a new area of coverage Off board systems require an infrastructure one that is going to be operational and dependable for the life of the car and the system if it is an OEM integrated system This infrastructure is not very different from a telematics infrastructure so off board navigation is a natural add on to the basic safety and security services offered with systems like GM s OnStar and Volvo s Volvo On Call However the vehicle OEM s in general have taken an extremely cautious approach to developing telematics infrastructures MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 ees OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 16 and prospective customers would be well advised to be wary of purchasing such integrated systems in cars sold by companies that have not shown a commitment to developing and sustaining their telematics infrastructures Keeping the connection to the car brand will not be as easy with off board navigation as
37. mental route and then relate the route to you without any visual means to do so It usually involves giving you landmarks turn at the Shell station or counting instructions drive on Main Street past three stop lights and turn right at the fourth Rather than as a talking device the mobile phone as a driver s aid holds its greatest promise in its ability to communicate data This capability is what off board navigation systems exploit as we shall see e Automated in vehicle systems come in many forms Autonomous on board navigation systems that have all the data and applications software inside the vehicle They are self sufficient and require no IMTA Map Report published a short article containing a reference to a survey comparing the driving habits of men and women MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 TT SS OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 5 connections to outside information or process sources Integrated Systems that are part of the design of the vehicle and are developed with the automotive OEM They are mostly factory installed requiring special connections to audio systems odometer and other sensors and integration into the vehicle s display screen CD DVD drive and user machine interface Systems that are automotive OEM options comprise two thirds of the systems delivered today in all three major markets Japan Europe and North America This trend is expected to
38. mples of Off board Navigation Systems Telmap Ltd Product Name Polaris Contact Telmap Ltd Retail Price Continuation Price e The second year is A region is defined as follows Scandinavia Denmark Norway and Finland Germany Belgium Luxembourg and The Netherlands Germany Austria Switzerland and the Czech Republic Italy Austria and Switzerland France Luxembourg Belgium and The Netherlands Spain and Portugal United Kingdom Great Britain and N Ireland Included in Price Available Markets North America Western Europe Australia Description General Telephone Purchase Phone Set up Polaris Set up MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 OFF BOARD NAVIGATION Wayfinder Product Name Contact Retail Price Continuation Price Included in Price Available Markets Description Wayfinder Euronavigator Wayfinder Lund 199 including Wayfinder software Bluetooth GPS and one year of unlimited routing for Western Europe 149 including Wayfinder software and one year of unlimited routing for Western Europe The second year is 99 including VAT all of Western Europe e See above Western Europe including the following countries Denmark Norway Sweden Finland Germany Belgium Luxembourg The Netherlands Austria Switzerland Italy France Spain Portugal United Kingdom Great Britain and N Ireland Ir
39. n Unit Sales History Outlook WE 8 ae 9 m BeNeLux B 261 8 Germany su 236 m Great Britain 40 8 2 E Italy 13 E I P France 0 0 eec 19 SOURCE NAVTECH Internal Analysis TEED EEE IEEE Eee EXE IFEE 2399 200 AE UE A A AUS 2 Source NAVTECH Internal Analysis Aftermarket systems have remained a steady 35 of total system sales but they are projected to fall as more OEMs offer factory installed options Aftermarket products provide neither the price advantage over the integrated systems nor a functional equivalent Figure 5 OEM Product Trends Displays Significant growth of monochrome display stabilized around 1 3 of the OEM demand Map Display m Monochrome 35 id PM ES m Fon 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Figure 6 AM Product Trends Displays 1DIN Radio Navigation with monochrome display and turn by turn directions are 70 of aftermarket volume provide turn by turn guidance with voice and pictogram on a monochrome display Colour map display systems are growing slowly in comparison AM Market volume per Product Categories zu Coulour Success factors of radio nav products Easy to install in replacement of an existing radio Cheap marginal price of the navigation function compare with a stand alone system 00 Monochrome MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 OFF BOARD NAVIGATION After M
40. nds Germany Austria Switzerland and the Czech Republic Italy Austria and Switzerland France Luxembourg Belgium and The Netherlands Spain and Portugal United Kingdom Great Britain and N Ireland Included in Price Available Markets Description General Telephone Purchase Phone Set up Polaris Set up MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 EEE OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 29 Name Product Name Contact Retail Price Continuation Price e The second year is A region is defined as follows Scandinavia Denmark Norway and Finland Germany Belgium Luxembourg and The Netherlands Germany Austria Switzerland and the Czech Republic Italy Austria and Switzerland France Luxembourg Belgium and The Netherlands Spain and Portugal United Kingdom Great Britain and N Ireland Included in Price Available Markets Description General Telephone Purchase Phone Set up Polaris Set up Product Name Yeoman Company Yeoman Ltd Cambridge UK MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 30 Price Retail Price 200 excluding installation app 2 hours costs 100 includes e Have sold service with Benefon GPS enabled GSM handset Also works without positioning in handset on normal GSM handset Description How the Yeoman system works Customer calls Yeoman
41. nterrelationships between the designs of the systems services and infrastructure which are proposed to improve personal and collective mobility and the planning and design of our habitat The fundamental premise of these papers is that land use and built form policies are inseparable from traffic and transportation policies Michael L Sena Consulting AB is an independent company providing specialist consultancy in the design and development of mobility systems for in vehicle and pedestrian usage including navigation traffic information and fleet management The principal of the company Michael L Sena is an internationally recognised expert in digital map databases location based services navigation and telematics He served as an expert delegate to both the European CEN and international ISO standards committees The company was founded in 1983 and since then has worked closely with decision makers and their staff to develop successful mobility system solutions that are on the market today AUGUST 24 2004 MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT Mobility Research Reports 1 Route Guidance Systems Luxury Convenience or Necessity 2 A National Roads Database of Sweden A Future Scenario 3 Digital Maps in the Worldwide Automotive Context Applications of Digital Maps in Cars and Other Land based Vehicles 4 Digital Maps in the Worldwide Automotive Context Implications of Advances in Driver Information and Assistance Systems on Digital Map Da
42. oard navigation approach There are already examples of this type of system coming into use DaimlerChrysler has introduced an off board navigation system in its A Class and Smart vehicles Data and the software for the navigation devices called NaviGuide is supplied by PTV Karlsruhe Germany PTV assemble the navigable road data traffic data and other information of interest to drivers into a single source On their central server PTV have the application programs for address searching and route calculation and for applying the information on current traffic MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 NAN OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 10 conditions to the generation of a route Using the on board interface the user requests a route to a destination This request is sent to the PTV server via the GSM network GSM Data or GPRS the route is calculated and sent back to the drivers on board equipment in the form of a series of voice turn by turn instructions and manoeuvre diagrams NaviGuide runs on clients operating Windows CE and J2ME The Polaris system by Telmap Herzlia Israel takes off board navigation one step closer to its on board predecessor Rather than just simple turning manoeuvres and voice instructions Polaris offers these plus full colour maps that are tailored to the device being used On an iPAQ for example with a high resolution colour screen the maps are rich and detailed simi
43. ocation is tied to a specific user who is charged for the downloaded film This Same procedure can be used for encrypting a message to drivers inside or outside an invisible fence defined for a specific application What about fixing the overheated engine before it overheated and sending the vehicle to the nearest workshop to get the automatic repair checked This is possible today as well Networkcar in the US which was recently acquired by Reynolds and Reynolds offers wireless systems for collecting and delivering real time automotive diagnostic data GM s OnStar division offers remote diagnostics as one of its premium services in the US Off board s Disadvantages Are there any In its simplest and least vehicle integrated form off board navigation does have several disadvantages compared to on board systems Reliance on the GPS device for keeping track of the vehicle s location on the road Reception of GPS signals is disrupted by tall buildings or heavy tree cover and blocked completely in tunnels and parking garages Once the signal is lost there is no way to follow the course of the vehicle and provide turn by turn instructions at the split second they are needed Some off board systems perform a limited form of map matching by plotting the GPS positions applying filtering algorithms e g Kalman filter and comparing the results to the map data This requires that the data in the vicinity of the pre planned route is t
44. oper antennae placed outside the vehicle in a well designed fashion In other words making them more like on board systems The trade offs with on board The main advantage that some off board systems have today is their total portability If had a completely portable system rather than my integrated system could loan my system to my wife when she has to find a place in G teborg where she has not been before or we could take it with us on a vacation and put it into a rental car wherever we land could plan my journey before get into the car and could take the system out of the car to complete the last leg of the journey on foot This advantage alone is a compelling one for some people and they will buy it on that basis Does this advantage outweigh the current difficulties with off board systems For a person who can choose between the two that means someone who is buying a new car that offers an on board system or a used car with an integrated navigation system and who can afford the one time cost of the on board system believe that if the person could actually test the two for a few days the on board system would still win today stress TODAY MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 l OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 19 Will the disruptive technology succeed The established value network for in vehicle navigation systems has seen a progression of sustaining developments o
45. ople driving cars navigating to their destinations using visual landmarks as waypoints following street and road signs referring to maps and asking people in the vicinity for directions are all wayfinding methods The automated systems of today have taken some of these older techniques and incorporated them into their packages e Visual landmarks This is the oldest form of wayfinding and one of the most effective for the person on foot Church spires bell towers monuments river edges hilltops or any feature that stands out or rises above the rest can be used for orientation Cartographers have added three dimensional forms to their maps to aid in navigation Twenty odd years ago the paper maps we produced at Esselte Map Service USA had 3D buildings as one of their trademark features had a recent experience with this form of navigation Last Autumn my wife and drove from the south of France where we were visiting friends to Lyon for the e Safety conference We approached the city armed with several maps We also had a brochure from the hotel where we would be staying and recognized its distinct tubular form from a distance It is the tallest building in the city We put down our maps and felt our way along the maze of one way and restricted access streets to the hotel entry This form of navigation is being developed to a fine art by JD Power 2001 Automotive Emerging Technologies Study Wave amp II 5 There are
46. or the past seven years It was returned to service by an able technician and has been supplied with updated software and data by its maker Mitsubishi Electric Corporation and find it totally acceptable It does the job it was built to do It is good enough And the best of the off board systems are also good enough with the caveat When all of the external systems are functioning have driven extensively with some of the best off board systems in Germany the UK the US and France They provide the instructions need to get me to my destination The manoeuvre icons are equal to those on my on board system and the map functions are much better have driven problem free on trips of over one hundred kilometres with start and end points in cities with complicated street patterns have also tried to start a journey where neither GPS nor GSM GPRS would cooperate Whatever the reason for the problems they are tiresome and tiresome problems cause users to grow tired and abandon the innovation Consumers do not usually use things that they must depend upon but only work sometimes The overall quality of off board systems would be improved significantly by building them into vehicles giving them larger screens providing steering wheel buttons and voice user interfaces integrating them into the cars speaker system and co ordinating the voice instructions with audio output providing sensor input for map matching and giving them pr
47. ransferred from the central database to the on board device and stored in temporary memory The longer the route the more data that is required along the route corridor and the larger amount of storage that is needed unless the off board system relies on downloading the 1 Qualcomm subsidiary SnapTrack claim to have solved this problem with special hardware and software that can capture GPS signals in places that are usually impossible to reach including inside buildings 20 On board systems connect to a gyroscope for heading and to the vehicle s odometer for measuring the distance moved By using dead reckoning the likelihood of a vehicle following a specific path in the database can be calculated called map matching GPS signals are used only to obtain the initial location and as a periodic sanity check on the dead reckoning calculations MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 EEE OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 15 data during the progress of the route This leads to a second major problem Off board solutions that rely on a constant network connection whether it is GSM data or another second generation technique GPRS or 3G will not have any satisfied customers for quite some time Staying connected to the GSM network is extremely expensive To avoid the expense some systems make a connection download as much data as required to start the route guidance instructions and then the conn
48. razor blade Ignoring the sunk costs of research and development the car companies make money on navigation systems just like they make money on any part or accessory that is sold as original equipment Automated In vehicle Navigation Autonomous navigation systems were the first wave to reach consumers This was in 1995 96 in Europe with systems like the Philips Carin in Renault and BMW Bosch TravelPilot in Mercedes Magneti Marelli in Fiat and Mitsubishi Electric in Volvo Autonomous systems were introduced even earlier in Japan The autonomous systems were followed quickly by traffic enabled systems of the semi 12 As Nils Bohr is reputed to have said Prediction is difficult especially when it concerns the future 18 Renault R amp D The Magazine of Research and Development No 27 January 2003 MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 EEE OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 8 autonomous category Adding traffic information to autonomous systems should have taken them from useful to essential driver aids Many systems are now equipped with RDS TMC receivers allowing them to receive traffic information from public authorities or private traffic providers directly via FM broadcasts The map databases from Navigation Technologies and Tele Atlas have been coded using the special tables produced by the traffic information providers enabling traffic incidents to be processed by the systems softwa
49. re and new routes generated that avoid congested areas Some systems use GSM SMS as the message bearing service but the objective is the same provide up to the minute information to the drivers 11 35 h WIDE SCREEN Bosch TravelPilot Sem autonomous route guidance system Making autonomous systems dynamic is one way to improve the performance of navigation systems The downsides of this approach are the costs and complexities they add to the systems and all of the supporting processes required to keep these systems in operation The main problem is that the systems are only as good as the on board data Traffic data suppliers are constantly increasing their coverage of roads by installing new traffic flow sensors or using floating car data adding more traffic reporters improving cooperation with police and emergency authorities so that they provide faster and more accurate input To make this data usable by their customers they need to expand their location code tables These new locations for which traffic information can be distributed must be added to the navigation databases The navigation databases must 14 Free traffic information is broadcast via RDS TMC in a number of European countries including Germany Italy The Netherlands Sweden Finland Denmark Spain Switzerland Austria and France The UK has no free RDS TMC services A private operator ITIS has the license for RDS TMC broadcasting in the UK and it charges
50. routing centre and speaks to an operator Operator calculates route and sends voice and text manoeuvre instructions to the driver No graphics Product Name ViaMoto Company Motorola Price Retail Price NA includes e Motorola handset with integrated GPS receiver Description This is a mobile phone based service that Motorola has introduced first in the US on AVIS rental cars As reported in the April 1 2003 issue of The Intelligent Highway AVIS customers receive a Motorola handset containing an integrated GPS receiver speakerphone and the ViaMoto software The user contacts the AVIS Assist call centre and asks for directions to an address or point of interest Turn by turn directions are sent as a data packet and announced sequentially when cued by the location of the user This appears to be a variant of Smartnav The cost of the service to the customer is 10 per day Product Name IbDN offered by O2 Company Webraska Price Retail Price 400 includes e XDA PDA from O2 e First year service included e After first year 20 per month plus GPRS fees Description Product Name T Mobile Traffic Scout Company T Mobile Traffic Price Retail Price 550 includes MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 oo EI OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 31 e Hands free car kit e GPS Description Product Name WisePilot Company Appello Price Retail Price NA includes Descrip
51. s 160 14 0 12 0 B its 100 205 E soo zao N amp o 535 8 H 2 60 4555 40 190220 mn M 557888881 0 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Source NAVTECH Internal Analysis Germany is by a large margin the most active market for navigation systems All of the German OEM s offer one or more navigation systems in their vehicles Three of the four primary European navigation system manufacturers have their head offices in Germany and With the largest population more cars are sold in Germany than in any other single market in Europe 30 Audi BMW DaimlerChrysler GM Opel Volkswagen Porsche 3 The three are Siemens VDO Harman Becker and Blaupunkt The fourth that is not located in Germany is Magneti Marelli 32 3 524 million cars and trucks followed by UK with 2 885 million France with 2 715 million and Italy with 2 559 million MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 OFF BOARD NAVIGATION Figure 3 38 Figure 4 Navigation Sales By Country European Navigation Market Outlook Germany still anead but the market is developing well in all countries Market share 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20 en Navigation System Sales by Country OEM 65 65 64 70 72 72 73 After Market 35 35 36 30 28 28 27 Switzerland Scandinavia amp Austria 3 1 Navigatio
52. service is already available in many European countries and is expected to be widely deployed throughout Europe in the next few years It provides a system for collecting collating and broadcasting real time traffic related data in a digital coded form on standard FM radio broadcasts To be useful it is important for both the supplier of the real time traffic feed and the routing navigation data being used to have a cross reference table to interconnect both data within the live system pne Hom OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 2 communications and information systems The top two items on their wish list roadside assistance and vehicle diagnostic information would have helped the unfortunate car owners who were the cause of the traffic jam The third and fourth real time traffic and navigation information definitely would have helped the hundreds of others who suffered along with them Can there be any question that drivers need information in order to make informed decisions about when and where to drive We are still using the same methods of navigating on our roads as we used several hundred years ago The method of transportation has changed motorised carriages instead of horse drawn ones but the methods of wayfinding had been the same until the introduction of the first automated navigation system In vehicle Navigation The Old and the New In vehicle navigation is a general term referring to any one of a number of wayfinding methods Pe
53. t is a cost that is borne by either the consumer or the automotive industry The vehicle industry will resist any attempts by government authorities to introduce any type of system as standard options because such an action will reduce their revenue opportunities and increase their costs Autonomous and Semi Autonomous Navigation Systems In Figure 1 we saw the statistics for the European navigation system market In Figure 2 we can see that in 2003 Japan reached a level of installed base that Europe is projected to reach only in 2006 Of the 12 2 million navigation systems installed in Japan 7 2 million are equipped with a form of communications device called VICS This is not an off board system but a method of providing real time 29 VICS Vehicle Information and Communications System MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 37 information on traffic congestion and regulations to on board systems like using RDS TMC to communicate with systems in Europe Off board applications have been tried in many forms in Japan by the major car manufacturers in cooperation with navigation system developers but thus far they have not succeeded in interesting consumers They cannot compete with the large screens and high quality three dimensional graphics available on most of the new systems being sold in Japan Figure 2 Japan Installed Base Cummulative Navigation Unit Sale
54. ta 5 The Dis Integration of the Mapping Industry And Where the Money Will Flow in The Emerging Location based Services Industry 6 Interoperable Map Data Media for Navigation Systems 7 Off board Navigation More irresistible than on board ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 October 9 1997 April 22 1998 May 1 2000 December 22 2000 November 28 2001 July 4 2002 July 11 2003 AUGUST 24 2004 MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT Introduction This Mobility Research Report is about new developments in automated in vehicle navigation systems in particular moving the map data source and route calculation software out of the vehicle to a central server An earlier Report written in 1997 addressed the prospects of success for route guidance systems as in vehicle consumer appliances and offered an opinion on how they might become convenience items that every vehicle owner would want to own The basic premise of the earlier paper was that the then current route guidance systems were not designed for purposeful and logical wayfinding They did not assist the user in understanding the fundamental relationships between the paths of movement and the user s eventual destination in a way that the user could feel a sense of orientation and security that the destination would be reached quickly and safely Since 1997 navigation systems sales have increased significantly see Appendix especially in Europe
55. te double checked with many industry experts GSM Global System of Mobile Communication GSM is global operating in over 200 countries not US and Japan 900 1800 Mhz footnote continued MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 EEE SS OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 34 remote service providers The hardware for display processing and storage can be the same as the on board systems or it can consist of portable devices such as personal digital assistants PDAs or wireless handsets The critical addition to the hardware package is a telecommunications module o Hybrid navigation combines off board delivery of static and or dynamic data with some form of on board data storage and applications support software Systems on the market today are of the autonomous and semi autonomous variety consisting primarily of integrated OEM systems and a growing number of portable independent systems based on PDAs Navigation systems are still luxury items Volume sales have not materialised Larger display screens better user interfaces increased map area coverage and on board storage have contributed to making them better navigation aids but they are installed on a mere 5 of the cars sold in Europe annually and by 2007 they are projected to be in less than 8 of all cars on the roads in Europe Figure 1 European Installed Base Outlook Cummulative Navigation Unit Sales Projected 16 0 r
56. the systems DVD based systems are gradually taking over from CD based systems Portable systems will not affect the total number of OEM systems because these systems will be purchased by customers who would not install an integrated navigation system in their car either because it would be too costly as part of a new car purchase or because they own a used car and the aftermarket systems are too expensive We do see off board systems eventually having an impact on the type of systems factory installed by the OEM s with them gradually replacing the autonomous and semi autonomous variety Growth Rates There are two growth scenarios for navigation systems in North America and Europe a Slow steady growth in the range of 2 5 of total new car sales resulting from fitting navigation systems as an option on the majority of luxury brands by 2005 a Rapid accelerated growth resulting from a combination of low cost standard fit devices in most models and government legislation requiring or encouraging the installation of systems Factors currently influencing the growth rate of navigation systems New car and truck sales Worldwide new vehicle sales are predicted by most market forecasters to grow by 5 6 through 2005 from 49 516 million units in 2003 to 53 867 million units in 2005 These increases will be sufficient for most car companies to continue to fund their navigation and infotainment developments 28 It is not sufficient to make
57. till need to be stored on board and the format for supplying this data is just as important for interoperability as the format for on board media Whats the Verdict Price Performance Proposition Cheap and cheerful on board systems are already available These are the turn by turn devices no maps usually built into car radios Blaupunkt Melco etc and the portable and semi integrated systems from ALK TomTom and others The dual function of the basic devices i e radio navigation system or PDA navigation system softens the navigation system price Even the cost of data for the on board systems is being addressed Siemens VDO has introduced a scheme for their aftermarket systems that allows users to pay for data used by entering a code to unlock data on the media Performance of off board systems today is hampered mainly by the communications networks do not mean that they are short of bandwidth Systems like Telmap s Polaris have proved that plenty of data can be transferred across simple GSM connections The problem is making and keeping a connection precisely where and when it is needed Mobile telephone users experience dropped calls even when they are stationary So today off board systems have a similar price to the low end on board systems with a generally lower level of performance due to the telecommunications network Networks are constantly improving but if anything the switch to 3G will exacerbate the call
58. tion MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 EEE OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 32 End User Prices Services Price Routing and Traffic Smartnav Trafficmaster 6 25 vehicle month Traffic Only Trafficmaster 13 75 vehicle month Telematics Route delivered verbally or by SMS to vehicle T Mobile Traffic Volvo On Call 1 50 3 00 per request PDA Off board Navigation Price DaimlerChrylser A Class PTV 1 600 with PDA Phone GPS DaimlerChrylser Smart PTV 1 600 with PDA Phone GPS O2 Webraska IbDN 400 with XDA from O2 GPS T Traffic Scout T Mobile Traffic Deutsche Telekom 550 without MDA with GPS Telephone Off board Navigation Price Wayfinder Wayfinder 550 without phone with GPS Smartnav Trafficmaster and Motorola 661 with phone and GPS Smartnav for Mitsubishi Trafficmaster and Motorola 695 with phone and GPS Smartnav for Chrysler and Jeep Trafficmaster amp Motorola 990 with phone and GPS Yeoman Yeoman 265 without phone or GPS MapWay M Spatial 0 83 per use independent of length of route or time taken to arrive to distination PDA Phone Autonomous Navigation Price Compaq ALK 1235 with PDA GPS small region maps TOM TOM TOM TOM 428 without PDA with GPS and large country maps
59. ver the past decade Replacing CD drives with DVDs was a sustaining development as will be the move from DVDs to hard disk drives These technologies are being introduced by the established players in the navigation system market to increase the performance of their systems to meet the demands of the high end of the market Disruptive Technology as Clayton Christensen and his team of researchers has shown gets its commercial start in emerging value networks before invading established value networks Disruptive technologies emerge and progress on their own uniquely defined trajectories in a home value network separate from the established one If and when they progress to the point that they can satisfy the level and nature of performance demanded in another value network the disruptive technology can invade it knocking out the established technology and its established practitioners with stunning speed The home value network for off board navigation is wireless location based services Network operators Sprint Cingular Orange T mobile Vodafone DoCoMo and Three among many others are the principal drivers of this value network Handset makers like Nokia Siemens SonyEricsson and Motorola are also part of this network They are developing server and client solutions in combination with a number of companies that have had no part of the established on board navigation market These include ALK Webraska Telelnfo PTV
60. vice will be available in Germany during 2003 Telelnfo is the service provider Blaupunkt is also working with Targasys in Turin Italy a telematics service provider in the Fiat family and with Fiat to develop an OEM version of the off board system Off board Advantages Does off board navigation offer significant advantages over autonomous or dynamic on board navigation The answer is a qualified Yes The advantages are different for each of the major players in the value chain the vehicle OEM the navigation system supplier the map data supplier and the eventual customer The Vehicle OEM Perspective One advantage for the OEM and eventually the customer is the potential to reduce system costs Placing all of the data off board eliminates the need for the media reader unless the system makes double use of the audio CD DVD reader Compared to dynamic systems there is no need for dedicated radio receivers Hardware cost savings should not however be overestimated for OEM installed off board navigation systems Off board navigation requires a communications device The cost of the device can be delegated to the customer by requiring the customer to bring his or her mobile phone into the vehicle and interfacing the off board components through a cradle or a Bluetooth connection If the phone module is integrated the cost of the device and the embedded subscription e g with GSM the SIM card could more than outweigh the savings
61. wer to map data media interoperability will be disappointed Without a standard in place before off board map data processing begins to be used in earnest for in vehicle applications the problem of proprietary formats will become worse instead of better High bandwidths of 2 5 and 3G telecommunications are not available everywhere and will not be for many more years Since contact with the high bandwidth network is not assured smaller data packets than the high bandwidth can support will have to be used just to make certain that data can be delivered when it is required This compaction requirement will start a new round of proprietary data format design Each format will claim to transfer more data faster than the competitors They may well do but it will be at the cost of each system being able to access the different data sources using the proprietary formats Off board data supply makes a great deal of sense because it should be much easier to update data at a limited number of central locations than it is to redistribute millions of disks However if every system requires its own data source the economies of centralised data updating may well be lost MOBILITY RESEARCH REPORT ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MICHAEL L SENA CONSULTING AB 2004 _____ eT OFF BOARD NAVIGATION 17 ADAS Totally off board solutions are not realistic for supplying mission critical information such as for ADAS applications Large amounts of data will s
62. y the volumes are exceedingly low compared to other parts but the administrative costs are the same The Customer Perspective The customer benefits in greater convenience higher quality and potentially lower cost In theory data on a central server can be kept more up to date than data supplied on media Map suppliers are constantly updating their data but are releasing these updates every three to six months Currently the conversion and compilation processes used by navigation system suppliers can take several months to transform raw map data provided in a transfer format such as GDF to a machine readable physical storage format By the time the CDs or DVDs are delivered to the customers today they are a minimum of six months but mostly one year out of date There is no guarantee that the operator of a central map server will update the data more often than the navigation system suppliers It is still a costly and time consuming task However what can be guaranteed is that all users of the service will have the latest data that is resident on the server rather than CDs or DVDs that were delivered with the original equipment and have never been replaced with new versions Another strong point for off board navigation systems is the ability for the customer to receive personalised information about events and activities and to be guided to the places where these occur This is a feature of location based services on non vehicle b
63. y one hour delay Technology exists today that would have allowed the vehicles involved in these incidents to send a message to all other vehicles in their vicinity to avoid using the road they were on At the same time they could have sent a message to the closest police car as soon as the accident or breakdown occurred The message to the other drivers would be something like I ve just had an accident on River Parkway between Lundby and Frihamnen in the direction of Tingstadstuneln I m blocking traffic Avoid this road until further notice To be useful to just those drivers in the vicinity the message is encrypted so that only those near the scene are able to receive it This is called geoencryption by one of its developers Dorothy Denning of Georgetown University in Washington DC The device receiving the 17 Map data suppliers have had a difficult time coming to grips with off board pricing because it was initially seen as a threat to their primary on board navigation business Selling data on a one time basis is the simplest method The customer uses it as often as he or she likes and hopefully purchases an update With the pay as you go model the revenue stream is not as controllable The problem at this point for the map data suppliers is that there is insufficient historical data on which to base their unit prices 18 Map data suppliers usually attempt to charge an annual minimum license fee based on projected volumes This

Offboard Navigation

Contents

Download Pdf Manuals

Related Search

Related Contents