(ex-ante) and completed project
Contents
1. arai 0 B zu S28 8 EE A cil he A 1 More About the Model 5 Adoption Path Production and Consumption Data z Astan Inbox Mice BY Microsoft w Qy Exploring E 3 Microsoft E BE 16 35 Note that in this screen the model has acknowledged all the commodities which were entered in Screen 7 in which you specified the scope of the analysis Click on OK to indicate that you have selected rice as the commodity for which you are entering data Alternatively select the appropriate commodity and click on OK You will get Screen 9 13 Screen 9 Entering data for a commodity At the very top this screen reminds the user that you are in the part of the model where you are expected to enter production and consumption related data The next line of the screen shows the regions or countries identified in Screen 7 of the model The third line shows that the relevant commodity is Rice and the region for which you are entering data is the Philippines The rest of the screen shows the variables for which you need to enter data If you place the arrow over the appropriate variable you can get more help about what you are expected to enter in the screen 14 Screen 10 Warning about missing data If there are still regions for which you have not entered data the model will warn you when you click on Next Commodity You will get the following screen 02. Philippines vietnam Australia The World Rice Philippines Farm Level Quantity 000 Metric Tonnes 5000 Quantity Consumed 000 Metric Tonnes 6000 Microsoft Excel You have not entered all the data for this commodity check the other regions Proportion of Output Affected by Research Probability of Success 1 Nest Commodity Cancel fA Start xg Microsoft 2 Inbox Micr BY Microsoft W QJ Exploring c You will continue to get this message for as long as you have not entered data for a region which you have selected in Screen 7 PSY 10 31 Note however that the model only gives you that message when you have not entered production data in a region If you do not enter the other variables but enter production in all regions you will not receive the message It is thus important to ensure that you enter all the data Check that all the data have been entered before extracting the results of the analysis for your report Once you have entered the data for all regions for a particular commodity click on Next Commodity When you have entered data for all the commodities you selected you should click on OK This takes the user back to the main menu 15 SPECIFYING THE IMPACT When you click on 4 Specify the Research Impact you get Screen 11 Screen 11 Impact analysis screen N Microsoft Excel assessment1 XLS kanga Qe S AS B S la x Ele Edit view Insert F
3. When you have entered data for all the commodities click on OK This takes the user to the main menu 21 Screen 16 Other parameters When you click on the button labelled 6 Other Parameters you get Screen 16 N Microsoft Excel assessment1_XLS kaea eA LAE _jajx Eile Edt view Insert Format Tools Data Window Help lalx JOSE SAY BAS O T TAN MOB E ara 0 B Zu F338 88 HE L O A re 1 More About the Model 5 Adoption Path gt Scope of the CLE lt I Select the Commodity to Enter other Parameters For 3 Production amp Rice 4 Specify the F AA Start 3 Microsoft Inbox Mice t Untitled L BY Microsoft W Reo 15 39 Select the appropriate commodity and click on OK to get the Screen 17 22 Screen 17 Entering data for other parameters J ZME k 18 x bh Sla y A e lt Tv gt BG 2 4 100 2 cr gt A Other Parameters E4 Vietnam Austra This screen enables the user to specify an expected growth rate in the sector Give the growth rate as a decimal For example a 1 growth rate is entered as 0 01 Normally in ACIAR analyses it is assumed that the growth rate is zero It is often difficult to ascertain what the growth rate in an industry is likely to be Thus the assumption of zero growth rate errs on the conservative side if the industry is going to grow over time If the user accepts the assumption of zero growth it is not
4. It was Jeff s dream while at ACIAR for a standardised approach to research evaluation that inspired the development of this model However the authors take full responsibility for the development of the model INTRODUCTION TO THE MODEL When you open the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research ACIAR Economic Impact Model you get the following screen Screen 1 Opening the model N Microsoft Excel aciarmodel final XLS PFX SPQ R S Ss aa e x Eile Edit view Insert Format Tools Data Window Help la x Oeh SaY semesl o gt A el x sz Bl o BriuU Zz2 2fi s 8 s3 e H 0 Ar k 1 More About the Model 5 Adoption Path 3 Productic Microsoft Excel hd AA Start 3E Microsoft Inbox Micr t Untitled L BY Microsoft w KA 15 32 This screen provides the user with the main menu for model and asks the user of the model to save the file under a different name This is a precaution so that the user does not overwrite the main model Click on OK Screen 2 Saving the model ae Aciarimpact xls BS aciarmodel XLS BS l aciarmodel final XL5 menti xLS godfrey XLS BS johnimpact xls AS Jtest XLS BS thai_test_run2 xls assessment1 LS Microsoft Excel Workbook xls The model asks the user for a file name and directory in which the model is to be saved The file name in this example is assessment1 xls
5. Save the model under a different name to ensure that you do not overwrite the original model If you click on Save the model takes you back to the main menu Screen 3 Changing screen settings N Microsoft Excel assessment1_XLS AEE QF S S H Ss a 4 2 b x S Ble Edit view Insert Format Tools Data Window Help lal x Dict SRY sBOS o o SS rcANTN MEH B B2 UE RE RE S x BS EA 1 More About the Model 5 Adoption Path 2 Scope of the Analysis 6 Other Parameters 3 Product LALL So Your current screen size is 640 x 480 this Model is best used in 800 x 600 kal AStart IX Microsoft Balnbox Micr M Untitled L BY Microsoft w EYA 15 34 The model is best used with the screen set at 800 x 600 To change the settings go to Start Settings Control Panel Display Settings Screen 4 The main menu X Microsoft Excel assessment1 XLS BY 3S f Q amp S S 3 3 AE E elx Eile Edt view Insert Format Tools Data Window Help lal x DEHER ABBI o o AE A hl OB 10 R Arial 10 B Zz u SS 3H 8 oe ee A 1 More About the Model 5 Adoption Path 2 Scope of the Analysis 6 Other Parameters 3 Production amp Consumption Data 7 Research Costs AStart 3X Microsoft BlInbox Mir Y Exploring E BY Microsoft W Ms 10 01 The rest of this section goes through the main features of the model When you double click on the button labelled 1 More A
6. perspective ACIAR Monograph No 4 Canberra Australia Lubulwa G and Davis J S 1994 An economic evaluation of postharvest tropical fruit research some preliminary results In Champ B R Highley E and Johnson G I ed Postharvest handling of tropical fruits Proceedings of an international conference held at Chiang Mai Thailand 19 23 July 1993 ACIAR Proceedings No 50 32 49 Lubulwa G and McMeniman S L 1997 An economic evaluation of realised and of 15 of ACIAR s biological control projects 1983 Working Paper No 26 August 1997 Canberra ACIAR Lubulwa G Underhill S and Davis J S 1995 Project development assessment pineapple quality improvement Economic Evaluation Unit Working Paper No 20 May 1995 Canberra ACIAR McMeniman S L and Lubulwa G 1997 Project development assessment an economic evaluation of the potential benefits of integrating apomixis into hybrid rice Economic Evaluation Unit Working Paper No 28 August 1997 Canberra ACIAR Paris T Carambas N McMeniman S and Lubulwa G 1998 Preliminary results from evaluations of 21 ACIAR supported projects based at the UPLB Philippines Paper presented at the Australian Agricultural Economics Society Conference Armidale January 1998 Wilson T D 1996 Software developments for economic evaluation of research In Brennan J P and Davis J S ed Proceedings of a research evaluation group for agricultural economists REGAE workshop
7. Bibliography Appendix Mathematical derivation of economic surplus measures for a simple closed economy model 24 24 25 26 PREFACE This paper discusses the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research ACIAR Economic Impact Model which can be used in ex ante and ex post evaluations of projects The model is a traded good model which estimates changes in producer and consumer surplus as a result of a supply or demand shift It is written in Microsoft Excel 97 and uses Visual Basic macros The model is part of the Impact Assessment Program s long term aim of developing systematic user friendly approaches for the evaluation of agricultural research projects It includes modules to allow the user with the required data to estimate cost savings for each one of the following situations Supply shift for an annual crop Supply shift for a perennial crop Supply shift for livestock commodities Supply shift for aquaculture Supply shift due to changes in postharvest wastage rate cost Demand shifts due to changes in product quality or consumer preference The paper shows how the model can be used and mentions examples where the model has been used in project evaluations Acknowledgment The authors would like to acknowledge the support and comments on earlier versions of the model by Dr Jeff Davis now Program Manager at the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation RIRDC Canberra
8. NO 32 SEPTEMBER 1998 ACIAR ECONOMIC IMPACT MODEL FOR USE IN PROJECT DEVELOPMENT EX ANTE AND COMPLETED PROJECT OR EX POST EVALUATIONS A USER S MANUAL Godfrey Lubulwa and Susan McMeniman ISBN 1 86320 254 4 l This paper was presented at the 43rd Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society held at Christchurch New Zealand in January 1999 Senior Economist Impact Assessment Program ACIAR Professional Officer Impact Assessment Program ACIAR CONTENTS Preface Introduction to the Model Screen 1 Opening the model Screen 2 Saving the model Screen 3 Changing screen settings Screen 4 The main menu Screen 5 More about the model Specifying the Scope of the Analysis Screen 6 Scope of the analysis Screen 7 Scope of the analysis with data entered Data Entry Screen 8 Production and consumption data Screen 9 Entering data for a commodity Screen 10 Warning about missing data Specifying the Impact Screen 11 Impact analysis screen Screen 12 Listing of the possible impacts The Research Impacts Specifying Adoption and Other Parameters Screen 13 Selection of a commodity for entering adoption data Screen 14 The adoption path screen Screen 15 Adoption screen error check Screen 16 Other parameters Screen 17 Entering data for other parameters Screen 18 Entering research costs Results A Guide to the Formulae Used in the Model Comparison with Other Project Evaluation Models
9. SEARCH IMPACTS The model includes hints on how to estimate the following research impacts IMPACT TYPE 1 Supply shift for annual crop Research which changes the farm level production cost including environmental or changes the yield per hectare for an annual crop Supply shift for all livestock IMPACT TYPE 2 Research which changes postharvest cost or the proportion of an annual crop Post harvest wastage and cost which is wasted between the farm gate and the retail market IMPACT TYPE 3 Research which changes the pre harvest production costs including Supply shift for perennial crop environmental or which change the yield for a perennial crop e g tree crop IMPACT TYPE 4 Research which changes the production costs including environmental or which change the productivity of livestock e g poultry pigs sheep and goats large ruminants and fish IMPACT TYPE 5 Research which changes the production costs including environmental or Supply shift for aquaculture which change the productivity of aquaculture IMPACT TYPE 6 Research which leads to a change in the quality of the commodity or which Demand shift changes the preferences of the consumers for the commodity and thereby leads to a shift in the demand curve by g unit 18 SPECIFYING ADOPTION AND OTHER PARAMETERS When you complete the specification of the impacts attributable to research for the different commodities the next step is to define the ado
10. an one commodity the program automatically creates additional sheets up to a maximum of five and so requires more memory Enter the title the project number the year the project started the date of the analysis the discount rate and currency Indicate which countries and regions are involved in the analysis To enter the commodity type click on the down arrow The commodity types include hectares tonnes number of trees dairy cattle beef cattle pigs sheep goats and buffalo The field for commodity type is used later to help the user check whether or not the adoption levels are realistic In the adoption screen the variable target refers to the commodity type 11 Screen 7 Scope of the analysis with data entered au Scope of the Analysis 1984 Philippines When you click on the button labelled Commit Data to Analysis the model accepts the data entered in the screen The more regions and commodities there are the longer the model takes to save the information After saving the model returns the user to the main menu 12 DATA ENTRY Screen 8 Production and consumption data When you click on the button labelled 3 Production amp Consumption Data you get the following screen N Microsoft Excel assessment1_XLS kaea QR S S B34 allel File Edit view Insert Format Tools Data Window Help la x JOSE ENAA eA EE E EEE
11. bout the Model you get Screen 5 Screen 5 More about the model N Microsoft Excel aciarmodel final XLS Rez Hse VS a 2 Ae ile Edt File Edit View Insert Format Tools Data Window Help O c oor About the ode Arial Model Developer ACIAR MODEL 98 was developed by Dr Godfrey Lubulwa Senior Economist and Miss Susan McMeniman Professional Officer in the Impact Assessment Program IAP of ACIAR The user interface was developed by Mr John Avery a consultant with Wizard Information Systems Canberra The model is part of the I4P s long term aim of developing sytematic user friendly approaches to the evaluation of the economic impacts of agricultural research projects Contact Details If you encounter problems when using this model please contact ACIAR at the Following address Impact Assessment Program Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research ACIAR GPO Box 1571 Canberra ACT 2601 Australia Fax 61 2 6 217 0 501 Email aciar aciar gov au Fe Start xg Microsoft Inbox Micr BY Microsoft w QJ Exploring asl BBA 12 24 Model developers ACIAR MODEL 98 was developed by Dr Godfrey Lubulwa Senior Economist and Miss Susan McMeniman Professional Officer in the Impact Assessment Program IAP of ACIAR The model is part of the Program s long term aim to develop systematic user friendly approaches for the evaluation of agricultural research proje
12. cts Contact details If you encounter problems when using this model please contact ACIAR at the following address Impact Assessment Program Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research ACIAR GPO Box 1571 Canberra ACT 2601 Australia Fax 6126 217 0 501 email aciar aciar gov au 10 SPECIFYING THE SCOPE OF THE ANALYSIS Screen 6 Scope of the analysis When you double click on the button labelled 2 Scope of the Analysis you get the following screen N Microsoft Excel assessment1 XLS Hal Scope of the Analysis Title of Project Date Analysis Started Project Number Date Last Revised 10 8 98 9 35 00 am A Project Year Start Discount Rate 0 08 Type of Analysis Ex Ante Ex Post Currency Australian Dollars Countries Regions in the Analysis Max 5 Commodities in this Analysis Max 5 Commodity Type Region 1 Commodity 1 Region 2 Commodity 2 Region 3 Commodity 3 Region 4 Commodity 4 Region 5 Commodity 5 Commit Data to Analysis Cancel MStar SE Microsoft 24 Inbox Micr QJ Exploring E BY Microsoft w SY 10 06 In this screen you specify the project details You also specify the number of regions and the number of commodities to be analysed If the analysis involves more than one commodity it is advisable that you save the file for the analysis in a directory with more memory While the default is one Excel spreadsheet if you specify more th
13. e user to which commodity and region the data relates A list of variables used to estimate the adoption path is given The Start date was defined in Screen 7 and is reproduced on this screen If the start date is wrong then go back to Screen 7 and fix it in that screen The target is the maximum area number of head of cattle etc that could possibly be affected by the research Once the first year and maximum adoption proportions have been entered a formula multiplies these figures by the target area and the result is shown in the right hand column Additional help with respect to each one of the variables is available by placing the cursor on top of the appropriate variable descriptor If you have more than one commodity in the model and you click on next commodity before you have entered all the data in all the regions you are given the message shown on Screen 15 20 Screen 15 Adoption screen error check Microsoft Excel Note however that this error check will come up if you have not filled in the entry for completion date If you fill in the completion date but not the other data on the screen the error message will not show up It is thus important to enter all the relevant data on a given screen Alternatively check each region before clicking on the Next Commodity button When you have entered data for all regions for a particular commodity click on Next Commodity to take you to the next commodity entered
14. ed by the research 7 The results can be displayed as total discounted producer surplus total discounted consumer surplus total discounted economic surplus NPV IRR total benefits by commodity and region graphical representations of benefits per year commodity and region As far as the authors are aware many of the other models are shells for use after the research impact has been estimated The ACIAR model is able to estimate this research impact within the model Furthermore it has a set of equations for estimating producer and consumer surplus taking into account whether the agricultural commodity is traded or non traded BIBLIOGRAPHY Alston J M 1990 Research benefits in a multimarket setting ACIAR ISNAR Project Paper Series Indonesian Country Study No 18 July Davis J S 1993 A model for evaluation of waste reducing postharvest research Contributed paper for the 37th Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural Economics Society Sydney University February Davis J S and Lubulwa A S G 1994 Evaluation of postharvest research results for an application to tropical fruit research projects and some further Methodological issues Contributed paper presented at the 38th Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural Economics Society Victoria University Wellington New Zealand February 7 Davis J S Oram P A and Ryan J G 1987 Assessment of agricultural research priorities an international
15. efore we see that Q 9 bk 40 And therefore ES kQo lt Qok 2Po 41 Comparing equation 30 and 41 reveals that ES gt ES Price S S Po x Qo Q Quantity Figure A2 Simple research impact supply demand model closed economy perfectly elastic demand
16. emand function earlier we get a d Po Qo 28 or d g Qo Po 29 If we substitute these in the above we get ES KQo s Qo Po a Qo Po k V21s Qo Po a Qo Po or ES KQo sa Qo Po k7V 2 a ES kQo qQok7 2Po a 30 In this specification k is the absolute value of the cost reduction due to the research impact that is the vertical distance between the before and after research supply in Figure Al Some applications use the percentage or proportional shift in the supply with the before research equilibrium price Po as the base reference If we call the proportional shift due to research K then the following applies K kiPy 1 From this we have k KPo 32 If this is substituted in the above equation we get ES KP Qo sq Qo Po KPo V2 a or ES KPoQo g QoPoK 2 aI 33 or ES KP9Qol saK 2 5 a l 34 or ES KPoQo 1 Z 2 35 where Z K g 36 This is the same formula as for example is in Alston 1990 page 4 30 ESTIMATES WITH A PERFECTLY ELASTIC DEMAND For a situation where the demand is expected to be perfectly elastic as is illustrated in Figure A2 the following revisions to the estimation formula can be developed The demand now becomes P Po 37 The before research market equilibrium quantity now becomes Qo a bPo 38 The after research market equilibrium quantity becomes Q a bk bPo 39 Ther
17. for the project broken up into producer surplus consumer surplus and total economic surplus for all the commodities in the analysis the research costs and the internal rate of return The bottom part gives the results by region and commodity in one table In addition there are three graphs of the results 24 A GUIDE TO THE FORMULAE USED IN THE MODEL If the user would like to look into the set up of the spreadsheets and formulae used Go to Tools Options then click on Sheet Tabs This will show the worksheets for each commodity They are named as com1 com2 etc To get out of this go to the front screen then Tools Options then click again on Sheet Tabs The equations for the estimation of the producer and consumer surplus are given in Davis et al 1987 These equations are slightly generalised to capture the different research impacts shown in Screen 12 Lubulwa et al 1995 discuss the incorporation of product quality changes demand shifts into the framework developed by Davis et al 1987 The appendix to this paper gives a derivation of the economic surplus measures for a simple closed economy In the simplest case where one is dealing with supply shifting research for a non traded commodity the equations in the ACIAR Economic Impact Model AEIM collapse to the equations given in the appendix as a special case The model has been applied as part of its development and testing to different types of research p
18. in conjunction with the AARES 40th conference Melbourne Australia Wood S 1996 A comparative review of research evaluation software Global agricultural science policy for the twenty first century Pre conference workshop on economic evaluation of research and extension activities in agriculture Global Agricultural Science Policy for the Twenty first Century August 1996 Melbourne Australia 26 Appendix MATHEMATICAL DERIVATION OF ECONOMIC SURPLUS MEASURES FOR SIMPLE CLOSED ECONOMY MODEL Jeff Davis The mathematical representation of the simple before research closed economy model in Figure is give as Supply P w xQ 1 where Pis the commodity price Qis the commodity output w x are the supply intercept and slope parameters Demand P y zQ 2 where y zare the demand intercept and slope parameters Price S s Po Pi D Q Q Quantity Figure A1 Simple research impact supply demand model closed economy Program Manager Rural and Industrial Research and Development Corporation RIRDC Canberra Australia Formerly of ACIAR 27 After the research has an impact the supply shifts from S to S In Figure A1 this is represented as After Research Supply P k w xQ 3 where kis the unit cost reduction due to the research impact measured in dollars This can be written as P w k xQ 4 Note however that the usual equation representation of this Marshallian supply and demand m
19. necessary to click on the other parameters button 23 Screen 18 Entering research costs If you click on 7 Research Costs you get the Screen 18 if ak Total Research Costs WSIE E ki b Fad a A x E Di Years 1 to 19 Years 11 to 20 Years 21 to 29 Arial 5 eE Inflation Adjustment Factor Base Year Year1 1984 oo Year2 1985 Year3 1986 fo Year4 1967 pooo YearS 1988 fo Year6 1989 Year 1990 iY YearS 1991 pooo Year9 1992 pooo Year10 1993 oOo OK Cancel M Start xg Microsoft Exc 2 Inbox Microsoft QJ Exploring ENEE BY Microsoft Word EN K 15 07 The screen has enough space for research costs for 30 years In practice however the research costs are incurred in the first few years of the project In the above screen the research costs for the first ten years are entered In this screen the user enters the real costs incurred iii The inflation adjustment factor is introduced to allow for known changes in the prices If you are not sure it is better to leave it at the default of 1 The inflation adjustment factor can be constructed from different sources including information on changes in price indices RESULTS When you click on 8 Results you get an Excel sheet with three main areas At the top of the results sheet are some descriptors giving the title project number type of analysis etc The next part of the results sheet gives the overall total
20. odel is the inverse of the above equations These can be written as Supply Before Research Q w x 1 x P 5 If we let a w x 6 and b 1 x 7 Then the supply becomes Q a bP 8 After Research Q w x 1 x k 1 x P 9 or Q a bk bP 10 Similarly the demand will become Demand Q y z 1 z P 11 or Q c dP 12 where c y z 13 d 1 2 14 28 With these models it is possible to derive the before and after research market equilibrium as Before Research Solving Q a bP 15 Q c dP 16 Po c a b d 17 and Qo ad bc b d 18 After Research Solving Q a bk bP 19 Q c dP 20 P c a b d bdk b d 21 and Q ad bc b d bdk b d Qo bdk b d 22 FORMULAE FOR ESTIMATING SURPLUS CHANGES DUE TO RESEARCH Using the basic formula for the change in economic surplus for the area in Figure A1 that is ES kQo 0 5k Q 9 23 Substituting for Q4 gives ES KQ 0 5k bdk b d ES kQo bdk 2 b d 24 From the before research supply and the demand functions we can show that the supply and demand elasticities are s dQ dP Po Qo 25 where is the elasticity of supply Then from the supply function earlier we get s b Po Qo 26 or b Qo Po 27 29 For demand we get d dQ dP Po Qo where gis the elasticity of supply Then from the d
21. ormat Tools Data window Help lal x EA S6RY BBS O o SS EE E EE Arial 0 B ZU E2 wo EE LOA 1 More About the 2 Scope of the Ar 3 Production amp Consumption Data 7 Research Costs AStart 3E Microsoft Exc Bylnbox Microsoft Qy Exploring E EE BY Microsoft Word EY 1455 Select the commodity for which you would like to enter impact data then click on OK You get Screen 12 16 Screen 12 Listing of the possible impacts N Microsoft Excel assessment1 XLS B 36 f QB S S Ba 3 SL fel File Edit View Insert Format Tools Data Window Help JASE 6RY BBS o See cA TT ia lara 10 impact Selector o E lt i Animal for draught po Return to Main Selected Imp Australiz T 2 Post Harvest Wastage and Cost 4 Supply Shift for all Livestoc I 3 Supply Shift for Perennial Crop Australia I 4 Supply Shift for all Livestock Other fixed costs T 5 Supply Shift for Aquaculture I 6 Demand Shift x t gt gt A Start 3g Microsoft Exc 24Inbox Microsoft J E Exploring ENEE BY Microsoft Word a fate WY 14 55 For each commodity and impact you need to do the following Select the impact and then click on OK This screen will only show the first time you enter the impact type If you revisit the data you need to Click on the button labelled Selected Impact This will return the list of impacts
22. ption paths When you click on the button labelled 5 Adoption Path you get a screen which looks like Screen 13 Screen 13 Selection of a commodity for entering adoption data LAEE E S H O24 S fel Eile Edt view Insert Format Tools Data Window Help l x Joe 6QY BBS o Be F471 OB 0 B Arial 10 BIU3F2 2H 8 8 GE HE a o A J N Microsoft Excel assessment xLS py A 1 More About the Model 5 Adoption Path 2 Scope of the ELUI Select the Commodity to Enter the Adoption Path for 3 Production amp 4 Specify the Re PA Start 3 Microsoft Inbox Mice t Untitled L BY Microsoft w BY 15 38 Select the appropriate commodity then click OK You get Screen 14 19 Screen 14 The adoption path screen Arig Vs Rice Philippines Start Date of Project esa Target 5000 Completion Date 1988 No of Years to Start of Adoption 7 Adoption in First Year 01 50 Tonnes No of Years to Maximum Adoption 15 Maximum Adoption 7 3500 Tonnes hd OK Next Commodity Cancel SR Start 3X Microsoft Exc 2 4Inbox Microsoft a QJ Exploring ENEE BY Microsoft Word H EN K 15 03 The adoption path screen has the following features The title of the screen reminds the user that this is the adoption path screen In the next line is a list of the regions as identified in Screen 7 The third line reminds th
23. rojects as described in McMeniman and Lubulwa 1997 Lubulwa and McMeniman 1997 and Paris et al 1998 Copies of these papers are available from the Impact Assessment Program COMPARISON WITH OTHER PROJECT EVALUATION MODELS There are several project evaluation models which have been developed by State departments and research and development R amp D corporations including REVS Department of Agriculture Western Australia PREVSYS Department of Primary Industry Queensland Australia SPEAR New South Wales Agriculture Australia APPRAISAL Department of Agriculture Victoria Australia Research evaluation models from the Dairy Research and Development Corporation DRDC Grains Research and Development Corporation GRDC and Meat Research Corporation MRC Wilson 1996 gives a good overview of the characteristics of each model A comparison was also undertaken by Wood 1996 who looked at both strategic and project level packages The key differences between the AEIM and the above project evaluation models are 1 Itis a traded good model world price effects taken into account 2 Ex ante and ex post analysis is possible 3 The model allows up five countries regions and up to five commodities 25 4 Unit cost reductions are estimated within the model for both supply and demand shifts 5 Growth rates can be introduced into production 6 Itis possible to specify the proportion of output affect
24. with a tick against the impact you have selected Click on OK Asking the model to display what impact type you have selected enables the model to move to the appropriate impact when you implement the next step below Click on the Before Research button This will take you to the appropriate part of the Impacts module corresponding to the impact you selected You can scroll up and down in this section or you can use the buttons labelled Next Entry Point to move from one part of the module to the next When you have finished entering data for the before research situation click on the After Research button to go to the after research part of the module Note that the default for this part of the model is that before research parameter values are the same as the after research parameters In the after research situation you need to change those parameters which have changed as a result of research 17 When there is more than one commodity you must click on Return to Main Menu then select 4 Specify the Research Impact to get back Screens 9 and 10 where you can select the research impact for the next commodity Repeat this procedure for each commodity for which you need to specify a research impact It is possible to specify more than one research impact for a given commodity For example research may both be shifting the supply curve and changing postharvest costs for an annual crop THE RE
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