CHAPTER 6 TECHNICAL OPERATING INSTRUCTIONS The long
Contents
1. Old stations UFORPGO Section 10 New Turbine UFORNT Section 5 New Combined Cycle UFORNCC Section 6 New Small Coal UFORNSC Section 7 New Large Coal UFORNLC Section 7 6 5 4 Question How do I change the load management capacity Answer Section 12 Appendix VI The default values are set at zero by country and by hour Values of LM can vary from 0 to 99999 6 5 5 Question How do I change the reserve margin for thermal and hydropower stations and for transmission Answer Sections 12 13 Appendix VI Thermal stations Section 12 Default values are set at 19 Hydro stations Section 13 Default values are set at 10 Transmission Section 13 Default values are set at the forced outage rate for each specific line 124 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 6 6 Finances 6 6 1 Question How do I change the capital cost of new thermal generation projects Answer Section 1 Appendix IV New Combined Cycle Stations PGNCCinit Section 1 New Large Coal Stations PGNLCinit Section 1 There are no fixed capital costs for the NT and NSC because these are always set as continuous variables 6 6 2 Question How do I change the capital cost of new transmission projects Answer Section 4 Appendix III Change variable value for PFNFc 6 6 3 Question Where do I add the cost MW for an extension increase to an existing hydro site Answer Section 5 Appendix V Change variable value for HOVcost 6 6 4 Question How do I chan2. CWIP Answer It assumes that all dollars are spent in the year in which the plant comes on line Thus any carrying charges for work in progress should be added to the initial costs of the plant Alternatively the model could be modified to allow capital costs to begin to enter the objective function prior to initial operation if the spending profile were specified Some changes in the service code would be necessary but none very complicated or time consuming 6 8 12 Question Must the capital cost of a new site include the cost of hook up to the grid Answer Yes the assumption is that when the capital cost is incurred all infrastructure is in place to allow the electricity to start satisfying demand 6 8 13 Question Are environmental consideration taken into account in the model Answer Not at the present time The source code could be easily modified to allow the model to keep track of the environmental impact SOXNOX particulate 132 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 etc of any SAPP plan if data were made available by SAPP or alternatively typical U S plant data could be used 6 8 14 Question Do the capital costs of the default coal plants in the model take into account the environmental characteristics of the coal burned Answer In an average way capital costs include the cost of standard scrubbing equipment found on new coal fired plants installed in the U S which met U S current environmen
3. 114 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 obtained from the model by setting the accuracy at 3 or 4 OPTION OPTCR 0 03 or 0 04 OPTCR 0 6 1 3 Question What other ways are there for changing the accuracy and running times of the model Answer Section 3 4 5 Appendix VII It is a major decision in the LT mode of the model on whether to allow a variable to be discrete binary or integer or of continuous type Changes to their condition will all be made in the gms file Any or all variables can be chosen to be either continuous or discrete The following binary variables first step in an expansion are the most likely however to be changed if any Yh ty z nh Section 3 Ypf ty z zp Section 4 YCC tya z ni Section 5 YLC tya z ni Section 5 Example With four growth periods and 14 nodes 12 countries with two of these countries RSA and Mozambique each having two nodes and with eight new large coal LC options there would be a maximum of 448 binary variables 4 x 14 x 8 The main integer variables to be considered is expansions beyond first step are PGNSCexp ty z ni PGNLCexp PGNCCexp PGNTexp HNVexp ty z nh HOVexp PFNVexp PFOVexp The effect of switching one or more of these variables between continuous and discrete has been investigated through several experiments and the model was initially run with all variables set to continuous Great caution is advised in making these changes as dramat
4. 6 6 23 Question Where do I change the capital cost of extensions to existing transmission lines Answer Section 1 Appendix III Change the values of the variable PFOVc 6 6 24 Question Where do I change the values of the crf for existing and new thermal plants Answer Sections 16 and 17 Appendix IV Change values of the variables crfi crfni 6 6 25 Question Where do I change the values of the crf for existing and new hydro plants Answer Sections 6 and 7 Appendix V Change values of the variables crfnh crfih 128 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 6 6 26 Question Where do I change the values of the crf for new transmission lines Answer Section 2 Appendix III Change values of the variable crf 6 6 27 Question Where can I change the escalation of fuel costs Answer Sections 9 and 10 Appendix IV An fpesc of 1 01 means a 1 escalation rate and an fpesc value of 1 08 means an 8 escalation rate etc JpescO escalation rate of fuel cost of existing thermal plants Section 9 fpescNT escalation rate of fuel cost of new gas turbine Section 9 fpescNCC escalation rate of fuel cost of new combined cycle Section 10 fpescNSC escalation rate of fuel cost of new small coal Section 10 JpescNLC escalation rate of fuel cost of new large coal Section 10 6 6 28 Question Where can I change the discount rate Answer Section 1 Appendix II Change the scalar disc The default value is 0 1 6 7 Output Fi
5. Description of the SAPP out file The SAPP out file is identical in format to the country out file with the following exceptions Section A Projects identical Section B Reserves only SAPP peak demand peak load carrying capability unserved MW line losses SAPP reserve capacity and SAPP reserve margin reported detailed information on_ reserve imports exports autonomy factors found in county out files Section C Incremental and Cumulative Generation Capacity only generation capacity reported transmission capacity found in country out files Section D Demand Supply only aggregate energy demand and supply reported supply information by station type found in country out files Section E Cost and Revenues omitted Section F Gains from Trade omitted Section G Objective Function Breakdown present value identical except revenues from imports exports omitted 143 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 6 11 Flow out File The flow out file shows all trade between countries for each hour day season and year Trade is reported as exports from country z to country zp since exports are reported if users wish to convert exports from z to zp into imports received from z at zp the flows reported in the files must be reduced by the line losses found in tables PFOloss z zp and PFNloss z zp in Sections 3 and 5 respectively in Appendix II 144
6. Flows out Results on thermal expansion Results on hydro expansion Results on the lines expansion Results on trade quantities Trade pricing analysis The standard GAMS general output file This lists all of the projects chosen by the models Output results for each country node 14 files Regional output reports Export Import flows The Purdue code files contain all the optimization constraints in GAMS format The model pulls information from the data files The file in Appendix VII is a generic output file created by GAMS for running the model The rest of the output files extract information from this main output lst file to produce more specific output files 116 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 6 1 7 a Question How do I set the number of years 1 2 3 4 or 5 that are in each growth period Answer It can be seen that n which is the notation for the number of years in each period is equated to DW at the end of Section 1 Appendix VII gms file To change the number of years n go to the sixhr inc file Appendix I The value of n can be changed on the first line of this file A value of n 2 is shown in Appendix I 6 1 7 b Question How do I set the number of time periods Answer By setting the Yper values Section 2 Appendix II Example If 4 time periods are required then a value of 1 is given to Perl Per2 Per3 and Per4 i e Perl 1 Per2 1 Per3 1 Per4 1 Per5 0 Per6 0 P
7. k report the hourly flow of energy imports and exports observed during a year unadjusted for losses or outages Subsection j reports imports and subsection k exports Each subsection starts with the maximum import or export country flow observed during the year followed by further detail on the season day and hour during which the maximum and _ ____ occurred Section C Incremental and Cumulative Installed Capacity Incremental and cumulative including initial capacity by type unadjusted for decay or outage rates is shown by year and by country Subsection a generation capacity installed in each year Subsection b cumulative installed generation capacity Subsection c new transmission capacity installed in each year Subsection d cumulative new installed generation capacity Subsection e additions to old transmission capacity by year by country Subsection f cumulative old installed transmission capacity by country Section D Demand Supply The subsections of this section list the yearly total values of the load balance equation a Energy Demand MWh yr consisting of i local domestic demand ii energy exported 137 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 iii pumped hydro generation demand uphill pumping iv dumped energy if any v total b Energy Supply MWh yr consisting of i total local domestic generation broken down by plant type ii energy imported iii pumped hydro generation suppl
8. region the larger the MW growth increment the more likely the model will choose the units with scale economics and lower costs Another advantage of SAPP wide capacity planning fewer bigger cheaper kWh units that are least cost if each country uses only it s own units to satisfy its own demand growth 6 8 7 Question Why are no capital costs for existing plant in the model Answer These are considered sunk costs the model considers only costs which can be avoided 6 8 8 Question Which types of costs incremental or average should be used to populate the model Answer Only incremental costs should be used 131 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 6 8 9 Question Is the model a discounted cash flow model Answer Yes with one exception Equipment purchases where all the money is paid at the time of the purchase are treated as if the money is paid to the sources of capital in equal installments The cash flows of plant and equipment financed over time by use of a capital recovery factor are correctly captured in the model 6 8 10 Question Can I alter the model to handle cases where all the money must be paid up front Answer Yes but this will require calculating a salvage value at the end of the planning horizon for the plants equipment in order to allow the model to add capacity towards the end of the horizon 6 8 11 Question How does the model handle the cost of construction work in progress
9. summation of the values weights for the summer and winter must always equal 1 6 1 11 Question How do I change the autonomy factors Answer Section 1 Appendix VII The AF z ty and enAF z ty tables show the default autonomy factor values for each country When AF and enAF are equal to 1 then this indicates that the country wishes to have the ability to be totally self sufficient Values ranging from 0 to 1 can be given to any one of the countries 6 1 12 Question How do I set the financial constraint Answer Maximum and minimum default values for any period could be set in earlier versions of the model but this parameter has been deleted from the May2000 model 6 2 Power Supply from New and Old Thermal Sites 6 2 1 Question How do I implement a MW extension increase to an existing thermal site Answer Section 14 Appendix IV old thermal PGOmax and new turbine PGNTmax Section 15 for new small coal PGNSCmax and combined cycle PGNCCmax Section 16 for new large coal PGNLCmax Change the value that you wish to any of these variables but if for example you wish to add 300MW to an existing 800MW plant then do not put 1100MW but just the 300M W increase 120 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 6 2 2 Question How do I change the initial capacity to an existing thermal site Answer Section 13 Appendix IV Go to Table PGOinit z i and change value to the one required 6 2 3 Question How do
10. the project is developed by a consortium of RSA DRC and some IPPs should the CRF in this case be the same as the one developed solely by DRC Answer Not specified Could be done by calculating different CRFs according 6 9 Description of the Country out File The output files for each country are divided into seven sections Section A Section A Section B Section C Section D Section E Section F Section G Chosen Projects Reserves Incremental and Cumulative Installed Capacity Demand Supply Costs Revenues GAMS from Trade Objective Function Breakdown Chosen Projects This file starts out with three entries Total Cost this is the value of the objective function for SAPP as a whole it is the present value of all countries operating and capital expenditures over the planning horizon present value Country Cost for Horizon this is the share of total cost reported above incurred by the given country present value 134 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 e Each Period years gives the number of years each period represents in the horizon The number of periods in the run can be seen by turning to Section B and observing the year headings Next are listed the projects selected in the country listed by project type large coal large coal expansion etc and within each project type by period The first column is the period the unit comes on line the seco
11. I show an escalation of fuel costs for a country in a specific time period Answer Sections 9 and 10 Appendix IV The escalation of fuel cost is expressed as a percentage of the fuel cost and is set for the whole time horizon It cannot be changed for different time periods The escalation rates are shown for each type of generation fpescNCC combined cycle JpescNSC new small coal and fpescNLC new large coal Go to the parameter and country required change for the new value of escalation Note A value of 1 01 refers to a 1 increase and a value of 1 06 refers to a 6 increase 6 2 4 Question Where can I change the cost of fuel in country z for year ty Answer Sections 7 and 8 Appendix IV The fuel prices for old thermal fpPGO and new gas turbine fpNT are listed in Section 7 The fuel prices for new combined cycle fpNCC new small coal fpNSC and new large coal fpNLC are listed in Section 8 Change values as required 6 2 5 Question Where do I look for the outputs of the model to find what new or extension thermal stations have been selected Answer There are two output files to look into a Country output files Angola out Botswana out etc b Therm_exp out 121 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 6 3 Power Supply from New and Old Hydropower Sites 6 3 1 Question How do I add or delete a new hydropower generation project to from the model Answer Sections 1 2 3 6 and 8 9 Appendix V Tables HNni
12. Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 CHAPTER 6 TECHNICAL OPERATING INSTRUCTIONS The long term model is now designed to be run by two sets of users e The General User e amp The Technical User This chapter is written more for the specialized modeler and technical user while Chapter 7 describing the operation of the interface is for the more general user With the creation of a windows interface it is no longer necessary for the user to become familiar with the GAMS and CPLEX software or to be skillful with the code editing procedures when using the GAMS code files Most of this Chapter 6 being written for the benefit of the technical users of the model it is assumed that there is no problem in editing of the Purdue code files For general users who only want to check their utility data and want to see the results from a model run then this can be achieved by proceeding straight to Chapter 7 The suggested specification requirement for the personal computer employed for best performance with the LT model is described below Pentium II 350MHz processor 512MB 100MHz RAM WindowsNT Windows95 Windows98 For the technical user the instructions in this chapter take the form of questions and answers It is first necessary to recognize what topic the question comes under 112 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 There are seven topical areas e 1 Computing requirements and setting parameters multipliers number o
13. added is given on the next column and the total construction cost in the last column Section B Reserves The first section of the reserves output is a printout of the yearly reserve equation in the model as discussed in Chapter 4 for each year in MW for the year not period indicated 135 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 peak load carrying capability Thermal Capacity ty z x Hydro Capacity ty z 1 19 1 10 exports of reserves ty z unserved MW ty z 2 Peak Demand ty z adjusted imports of reserves ty z Subsection a of the section Peak Demand MW reports the right hand side of the equation for the year indicated in the columns Subsection b peak load carrying capability lists the available capacity reduced by decay by technology adjusted by the appropriate reserve margin along with the total Subsection c lists imports of reserves by country and in total adjusted for line loss and the forced outage rate for the transmission line s connecting the country to the country holding the reserves Subsection d lists the countries for whom reserves are being held and in total Subsection e lists the dummy variable unserved MW or more properly unsatisfied reserve MW a variable used to measure the gap if any between the required reserves and peak demand Subsection f simply adds up the left hand side of the reserve equation as indicated to assure the user it equals the right ha
14. ak Hr21 0 25 52 1 13 8736 Season Winter 0 25 SAPP Winter makes up 1 4 of the year Summer 0 75 SAPP Summer makes up 3 4 of the year Day Peak 52 52 days a year are classified as Peak days Average 260 260 days a year are classified as Average days OffPeak 52 52 days a year are classified as OffPeak days Hour Avnt 8 8 hours a day are classified as Average Night hours Hr9 1 Hr9 corresponds to the 9th hour of the day Avdy 12 12 hours a day are classified as Average Night hours Hr19 1 Hr19 corresponds to the 9th hour of the day Hr20 1 Hr20 corresponds to the 9th hour of the day Hr21 1 Hr21 corresponds to the 9th hour of the day Percent 26 79 17 86 8 93 5 95 5 36 5 36 3 57 3 57 2 23 2 23 2 23 2 23 1 79 1 79 1 19 1 19 0 74 0 74 0 74 0 74 0 45 0 45 0 45 0 45 0 45 0 45 0 45 0 45 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 0 15 100 00 Cumm 26 79 44 64 53 57 59 52 64 88 70 24 73 81 77 38 79 61 81 85 84 08 86 31 88 10 89 88 91 07 92 26 93 01 93 75 94 49 95 24 95 68 96 13 96 58 97 02 97 47 97 92 98 36 98 81 98 96 99 11 99 26 99 40 99 55 99 70 99 85 100 00 119 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 6 1 10 Question How do I change the season factor Answer Appendix I To change the Mseason parameter go to the beginning of the sixhr inc file The user can set the values for summer and winter The
15. ax USA 202 342 0181 The JAVA 1 2 software for running the interface can be freely downloaded from the internet http java sun com It is even more readily available on the SAPP web page at http www purdue edu HES SAPP Contact iies ecn purdue edu for the username and password for gaining access to the files in the sub directory 6 1 2 Question How can I improve the accuracy of the model Answer Section 1 Appendix VII The tolerance or accuracy of the model is set at a very fine value A default value of 0 000005 is used and this applies to when set at the integer mode It can be changed by entering the gms file and changing the OPTION OPTCR value at the top of the file A 1 accuracy would be given the value 0 01 and 0 1 given 0 001 etc This is applicable only to the model when in the integer mode An optimal solution is always achieved when in the linear programming LP mode To change from the integer mode to the LP mode go the gms file In the SOLVE statement delete the R from the RMIP RMIP means Relaxed MIP and thus is LP Without the R the model is the mixed integer program MIP which is the designed mode and the one required for the most accurate results The LP mode is better for test runs See also Question 6 1 3 It is very important to remember that the greater the accuracy of the model then the length of time taken to run the model will also be much longer Fast estimates can be
16. er7 0 Per8 0 Per9 0 Perl0 0 Note At no time should any values of 1 be interspersed with a value of 0 The model has a maximum availability of 10 growth periods and each period will contains a specific number of years i e 1 2 3 4 or 5 Time period 0 is always the Baseyear Example Let the number of years in each period be n If n 2 and the Baseyear is 2000 with 4 time periods Period 0 is year 2000 January 1 Period 1 is from January 1 2000 to December 31 2001 Period 2 is from January 1 2002 to December 31 2003 Period 3 is from January 1 2004 to December 31 2005 Period 4 is from January 1 2006 to December 31 2007 117 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 6 1 8 Question How do I set the number of hours in one day Answer There is no parameter for a quick change in the number of hours per day The default value is the 6 hour model i e 4 x 6 hours It is difficult to change this without considerable knowledge of GAMS Changes have to be made in several files and it is recommended that advice be found before trying to change the default value The total number of hours must equal 24 and the weightings for all the hours are shown in Table 6 1 6 1 9 Question How do I change the number of day types in each year Answer Section 2 Appendix VII You can t change the number of day types but you can change the weightings The total number of days must add up to 365 Weightings for the da
17. f years in each time period level of complexity etc e 2 Power supply from existing and potential thermal sites e 3 Power supply from existing and potential hydropower sites e 4 Transmission and trade e 5 Demand and reliability e 6 Finances e 7 Output files All technical users of the LT model will want to consider the questions above in 1 The level of accuracy is set by a modeling function OPTION OPTCR in Appendix VII and by the number of discrete variables that are permitted with the new projects The running time of the model is significantly affected by the expected level of accuracy The software that needs to be installed on the PC for the model to run is Purdue Code Files These text files formulate the analysis GAMS BASE MODULE This reads the model formulation CPLEX This fast solver enables the obtaining of an optimal solution JAVA This is needed to set up the windows interface 113 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 6 1 Computing Requirements and Setting of Parameters cost values time horizons levels of complexity etc 6 1 1 Question What are the minimum software installation requirements for running the LT model on a PC Answer In order to run the SAPP Purdue LT model the GAMS and CPLEX software will be installed on your PC Details and cost for this software can be obtained from the GAMS Corporation Email sales ike gams com Phone USA 202 342 0180 F
18. from the sale of power and reserves more than covered generation plus power and reserve import costs Since this accounting scheme does not include any revenues from the domestic sale of electricity it cannot be interpreted as evidence of a profitable negative entry or unprofitable positive entry activity To obtain a profitability measure first yearly domestic sales as reported in Section D subsection a Local Demand by year would have to be multiplied by domestic revenue MWh by year multiplied by the number of years per period and present valued giving the present value of domestic sales over the planning horizon This total would then be subtracted from the total cost for horizon with revenue and payments reported If the result was less than zero the magnitude would represent the present value of the profit since the expression is costs minus revenues 142 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 hence negative values indicate revenues grater than costs Conversely if the result were positive it would indicate a loss Again all this is dependent on how the gains from trade are calculated The method here to calculate the total gains from trade is the difference between the cost of the last MW of generating capacity used by the exporting nation and the last MW of generation avoided by the importing nation significantly understates the total gains from trade to be split between importer and exporter 6 10
19. ge the cost of unserved energy UE for country z in year ty Answer Section 1 Appendix II The default value is 140 MW 6 6 5 Question Where do I see the total cost of the expansion plan for the region Answer Projects out at the top of the file Country out also at the top of each country output file Angola out Botswana out etc 6 6 6 Question Where do I see the total cost of the expansion plan for country z Answer In the Country out file The objective function breakdown is provided for each country at the end of each respective country file 125 6 6 7 6 6 8 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 Question Where do I find the input operating and maintenance cost for thermal stations Answer Section 17 18 and 19 Appendix IV OMT variable O amp M for combustion turbines MWh Section 17 OMCC variable O amp M cost for combined cycle MWh Section 18 OMLC variable O amp M for large coal MWh Section 19 OMO variable O amp M for old thermal MWh Section 19 FixOMCC fixed O amp M cost for combined cycle MW yr Section 19 FixOMLC fixed O amp M cost for large coal MW yr Section 19 FixOMSC fixed O amp M cost for small coal MW yr Section 19 Question Where do I find the opportunity cost of water Answer Section 1 Appendix V This is a scalar value wcost The default value is 1 5 MWh for all countries except Tanzania which has 0 09 6 6 9 6 6 10 6 6 11 Questi
20. he largest decrease in the objective function the optimization can find when the demand is reduced by one unit that is the shadow price is the difference between the solutions to two optimization problems one having x on the right hand side the other x 1 thus it is the maximum reduction in the objective function associated with the unit change Now what that value is depends on what change in the optimal solution takes place If the largest reduction in the objective function is associated with reducing imports by one unit then the marginal cost of the exporter and the avoided cost of the importer differ only byline loss The point is that the marginal avoided cost of the importer can be and in our model frequently is the marginal cost of the exporter plus line loss So what is the real world impact of all this It makes clear the severe limitations of using marginal prices to estimate and allocate the gains from trade arising from trading large blocks of power The correct method of estimating the gains from trade for each transaction would be to eliminate each trade from the optimal solution see what the increase in the objective function would be as a result of this and call that the gain from trade for the transaction Then find the price for the transaction which would split the gains 50 50 no easy task since the marginal and avoided costs of the transaction would differ depending on the incremental size of the bloc
21. ic increases in model running time may result It is recommended to consult with SUFG staff email iies ecn purdue edu before changing the base model types 6 1 4 Question How do I run the model Answer In the interface there is a run model button but with the GAMS models only then the command gams model gms needs to be used where model is the specific name of the gms code file 115 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 6 1 5 Question How many files are in the model and what are their names Answer The input and output files of the LT model are shown in Figure 1 4 and a brief description of each follows this figure 6 1 6 Question How are the files in the model related to each other Answer The files in the model are divided into 3 categories 1 GAMS optimization software files 2 There are eight Input Data Files which can be changed and updated Thermo inc Hydro ine Sixhr inc Lines_sapp inc Reserve inc Data inc Uncertain inc Output inc Data related to Thermal Power Plants Data related to the Hydro Power Plants Data on national demand 6 periods day 4 hourly Data on international tie lines Data related to Required Reserve Ratios Data Related to Growth Rates and parameters Uncertainty data Directions for creation of output files 3 There are many Output files Therm_exp out Hyd_exp out Trans_exp out Trade out Prices out June21 1st Projects out Country out SAPP out
22. ient while 1 05 represents a 5 loss etc 6 4 5 Question How do I change the maximum addition to an old and or new transmission line Answer Sections 1 3 4 and 5 Appendix III Old line values can be changed with the values of PFOVc Sections 1 and PFOVmax Section 3 New line values can be changed with the values of PFNVmax Section 4 and PFNVc Section 5 6 4 6 Question How do I change the transmission loss factor in old and new lines Answer Sections 3 and 5 Appendix III Old line loss factors are changed with PFOloss Section 3 New line loss factors are changed with PFNloss Section 5 6 5 Demand and Reliability 6 5 1 Question How do I change the yearly demand growth rate for country z Answer Sections 2 3 4 and 5 Appendix II 123 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 6 5 2 Question How do I change the forced unplanned or emergency allowance outage rate for country z in year ty Answer Sections 2 3 and 4 Appendix VI Go to the appropriate table and section for each of the five types of stations Old stations FORPGO Section 2 New Turbine FORNT Section 2 New Combined Cycle FORNCC Section 3 New Small Coal FORNSC Section 4 New Large Coal FORNLC Section 5 6 5 3 Question How do I change the unforced planned or maintenance allowance outage rate for country z in year ty Answer Sections 5 6 7 and 10 Appendix VI Go to the appropriate table and section for each of the five types of stations
23. k Since this represents a major 140 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 expansion of the output report and also has conceptual problems of its own the gains from trade will be calculated and allocated using the shadow price method The same logic underlies the estimates of the gains from trade of reserves except the avoided and marginal costs of buyer and seller are taken from the shadow prices of the reserve constraints not the load balance constraints No guidance was found in the SAPP ABOM with regards to the sharing of the gains from trade in reserves hence Purdue assumed a 50 50 split of the gains here as well Revenues and payments for reserves are entered by destination and origin in Section F Section F gives the average selling price MWh for a counties exports and the average buying price MWh for a countries imports produced by the volume weighted average of each transaction e g AC MC average Selling price sl 2 AS MC average buying price gt 2 Y where ACx MC AC and MC are the avoided and marginal costs of transactions X and Y and MW and MW are the volumes traded at that price Section F lists the average buying and selling price for power first and then for reserves Section G Objective Function Breakdown Finally Section G gives the term by term breakdown of all terms in the objective function by year all are discounted present values a yearly capital costs by plan
24. les 6 7 1 Question Where do I find the regional total cost NPV of the optimization Answer The regional total cost is at the top of various output files Country out and Projects out files 6 7 2 Question Where do I find the cost NPV to each country from the optimization Answer Country out The country total cost is at the top of the country file and underneath the regional total cost with a country objective function breakdown at the bottom of the country file 129 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 6 7 3 Question Where do I see the list of chosen projects from the optimization Answer The country output files show the expansions for each country the type of technology and the MW quantities The projects file shows all of the chosen projects in the region Country out and Projects out 6 7 4 Question Where do I find the benefits of joint planning for my country Answer First run the free trade option taking the final cost and then run the fixed trade option taking the final cost The difference between the two final costs gives the benefits from joint planning 6 7 5 Question Where can I find the annual energy imports over time and the grand total for my country Answer Trade out and Country out 6 8 Questions Related to the Formulation 6 8 1 Question What are the pros cons of choosing expansion to be continuous rather than multiples of fixed plant sizes Answer pro quicker solution time c
25. nd and third identify the unit See Table 1 3 in the Users Manual for the names and more details on these units The last column of Table 1 3 contains the station identifiers that correspond to the station index in the third column of the projects selected file The fourth column lists the MW installed in that period the fifth column lists the undiscounted total construction cost associated with that number of MW This value is not to be confused with the levelized annual cost of such construction reported in Sections E and G those values are obtained by multiplying the total construction cost by a capital recovery factor and either reporting in actual or discounted present valued dollars The cost MW of the new construction can be obtained by dividing column 5 by column 4 The section first presents the data for all generation projects large coal initial investment site preparation large coal capacity expansion see Chapter 4 for more on the distinction between the two small coal no separate initial cost combined cycle both initial and expansion gas turbine no separate initial cost new hydro both initial and expansion old hydro expansion and pumped storage projects no separate initial cost No old thermal data have expansion options Next new transmission projects both initial and expansion and old transmission expansion which connect the country to its neighbors are listed by period and by country the capacity
26. nd side Subsection g is the measure of the reliability of the system used by SAPP Reserve capacity as a of System Peak Obligation We calculate this percent as SAPP specifies in SAPP s ABOM Section 2 32 as indicated in the next paragraph Letting RC be reserve capacity as a percent of System Peak Obligation AC be Accredited Capacity 2 1 and SPO be System Peak Obligation 2 43 We have RC AC SPO SPO Now 2 1 AC GC PPP PPS where GC generating capacity PPP participation power purchases and PPS participation power sales Since both PPP and PPS are O in our formulation and since 2 27 SPO PD FPP FPS where PD Peak Demand FPP Firm Power Purchases our firm imports and FPS Firm Power Sales our firm exports substituting these definitions into RC we finally have RC b unadjusted for reserve margin c d a GC FPP FPS PD PD FPP FPS a d c Next subsection i gives both the actual autonomy factor 136 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 thermal plus hydro generating capacity peak demand and the required autonomy factor as specified in the input files Table AF z for the particular run being reported The actual autonomy factor will always be greater than or equal to the required factor the actual will exceed the required for countries exporting power reserves The format does not report the energy autonomy factor at the present time Finally subsections j and
27. ndiscounted by year and the total discounted over the horizon Water costs are obtained by multiplying yearly hydro production in KWh in section c of Section D Demand Supply by the water cost KWh assumed to be 1 50 MWh in the run Subsection d provides information on the capital cost component of the objective function showing the annual levelized cost per year for construction by station by type first in yearly undiscounted and then in yearly discounted present value dollars then the total of the years and finally the total discounted over the horizon Section F Gains from Trade This section provides information in the sharing of the gains from trade all are discounted present valued The SAPP ABOM specifies that the savings resulting from such a transaction shall be split between the purchasing and selling members Secure Schedule C Section 1 Economy Energy The EXPG z zp Appendix 2 Section 5 governs how the gains from trade are to be divided up between exporter and importer When EXPG z zp is set at 5 the default setting then the gains from trade are split equally between buyer and seller When it is set at 1 all the gains go to the exporter e g trade takes place at the avoided cost of the importer making the importer no better off with the trade than without it When the parameter is set to 0 all the gains go to the importer e g trade takes place at the marginal cost of the exporter which mea
28. nit HNF cost HNVcost HNVmax HNexpstep HNLF VarOMnh AtHn BefHn AftHn minHn crfnh FORnh are the ones which will need to be changed 6 3 2 Question How do I change the generating capacity of an existing hydropower generating station Answer Section 4 Appendix V The table HOinit will be changed 6 3 3 Question How do I propose a MW extension increase to an existing hydropower site Answer Sections 4 and 5 Appendix V The tables HOVmax HOexpstep HOVcost will be changed 6 4 Transmission and Trade 6 4 1 Question How do I add or delete a new transmission project to from the model Answer Sections 2 4 5 and 7 Appendix III Five sets of tables need to be changed to achieve this These are crf Section 2 PFNFc Section 4 PFNVmax Section 4 PFNVc Section 5 PFNloss Section 5 and PFNinit Section 7 minPFN Section 7 6 4 2 Question How can I implement a fixed trade or limited trade policy Answer Section 7 Appendix III This can be done by using the minimum flow constraint minPFO Existing line 122 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 6 4 3 Question How do I change the levels MWh from each hydro site Answer Section 6 Appendix V Change values in the tables HOLF and HNLF 6 4 4 Question How do I change the DLC for each country Domestic Loss Coefficient Answer Section 5 Appendix II Change the DLC value for any country Note that the value 1 0 represent 0 domestic loss coeffic
29. ns the exporter is indifferent to the trade taking place all the exporter gets is its marginal cost of the transaction In what follows EXPG z zp will be assumed to equal 5 Estimates of the costs avoided by the buyer and marginal production costs of the seller are obtained from the model shadow prices of the hourly load balance equation for the buyer and seller scaled up to a yearly total by the equations AC MC MWE Revenues from Exports gt AC Jt w MC AC MWI Payments for Imports gt a Jt t w where AC avoided cost of importer in time slice t 139 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 MC marginal cost of exporter in time slice t MWE MW exported in t MWI MW imported in t wi hourly weight to convert to 8760 hrs yr These are then entered in Revenue from exports and Payments for Imports in Section F A word of warning is in order regarding this method of calculating and allocating the gains from trade The shadow price of the importer load constraint is the change in the objective function associated with a unit change in the right hand side of the load constraint Except in very rare circumstances when a relaxation of a constraint by one unit changes the extreme point of the optimal solution the shadow price of a constraint is the same for a one unit increase as it is for a one unit decrease The value of the shadow price reported since costs are minimized is t
30. on Where do I find the heat rates Answer Section 11 12 and 13 Appendix IV HRO heat rate of old thermal plant Section 11 HRNT heat rate of new combustion turbine millions BTU MWh Section 11 HRNCC heat rate of new combined cycle millions BTU MWh Section 12 HRNLC heat rate of new large coal millions BTU MWh Section 12 HRNSC heat rate of new small coal millions BTU MWh Section 13 Question Where do I find the fuel cost Answer Section 7 and 8 Appendix IV fpO fuel cost of old plants MWh Section 7 fpNT fuel cost of new combustion turbines million BTU Section 7 fpCC fuel cost of new combined cycle million BTU Section 8 fpNSC fuel cost of new small coal million BTU Section 8 JpNLC fuel cost of new large coal million BTU Section 8 Question Where do I find the total transmission expansion cost for the region Answer Projects out 126 6 6 12 6 6 13 6 6 14 6 6 15 6 6 16 6 6 17 6 6 18 6 6 19 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 Question Where do I find the total cost of thermal expansion for the region Answer In the Projects out file and listed according to technology type Question Where do I find the total cost of hydropower expansion for the region Answer In the Projects out file and listed according to old and new hydro Question Where do I find the total transmission expansion cost for country z Answer Angola out Botswana out etc Ques
31. on round off error 6 8 2 Question Can I select which variables are continuous which are fixed multiples or must I declare all to be one or the other Answer You can select any or all to be either continuous or discreet 6 8 3 Question What criteria should I use to decide if a capacity expansion variable should be continuous or multiples of a fixed size Answer Two factors a the availability of units in many sizes simple turbines b the importance that the unit plays in the solution 130 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 6 8 4 Question Can I simply round off a continuous capacity variable to the size of the nearest available unit Answer Yes that is the suggested solution Contact ties ecn purdue edu 6 8 5 Question How are scale economics reflected in the model Answer By associating a large fixed cost with the construction of the initial units of capacity e g initial fuel handling water treatment site preparation transportation sub station costs for thermal the dam for hydro right of way purchase and tower construction for transmission 6 8 6 Question Does the model compete units with scale economics against units with constant returns to scale Answer Yes simple gas turbines and small coal plants are assumed to have constant returns to scale they compete directly with combined cycle gas turbines and large coal plants which ever is chosen is dependent on the yearly growth expected in a
32. t type b unserved MW cost if any c fixed O amp M associated with the construction of new plants d fuel costs 141 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 e unserved energy if any f water costs g variable O amp M costs and finally total costs all present valued first by year and than summed over the horizon Recall that discounted horizon cost is generally much larger than the sum of yearly discounted costs since the horizon total includes the adjustment for multiple years per period The last section presents information regarding the combined impact of objective function expenditures capital and operating costs plus revenues derived from the sale of both power MWh and reserves MW minus expenditures for the purchase of both power MWh and reserves MW Reserves are negative numbers expenditures are positive numbers The total row is the sum of all these cash flows again in present valued dollars Total cost is equal to capital and operating expenditures Total from Section G minus revenues from power exports MWh exp plus expenditures for power imports MWh imp minus revenues from reserve exports Res exp plus expenditures for reserve imports Res imp Thus a positive total cost figure for a year indicates that the cost of generation plus power and reserve purchases exceeded any revenues from the sale of power or reserves a negative entry indicates that revenues
33. tal standards for SOX NOX Particulate 6 8 15 Question How does the model handle the small thermal units of the region Answer The model ignores all the small units in the region which are not connected to the national grid 6 8 16 Question How can new units already committed to but not yet on line be entered into the model Answer The parameters AtT BefT and AftT need to be used See respective files hydro inc thermo inc lines_sapp inc 6 8 17 Question Why does the model not include commitment costs alone with dispatch costs Answer Unit commitment includes the use of many conditional constraints of the if then form These require many additional integer variables and would drastically increase the running time with a less then commensurate increase in realism or accuracy 6 8 18 Question Can a more realistic assumption be made regarding the rate of decay than the constraint percentage assumption used in the model Answer Yes another formulation which allows arbitrary varying rates of decay over time is available 133 6 8 19 6 8 20 to different assumptions Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 Question How is responsibility for financing an international transmission expansion modeled Answer By splitting the cost between the two connecting countries 50 50 Question Should I have different assumptions for the CRFs for a large hydro project such as the one in DRC For example if
34. tion Where do I find the total cost of thermal expansion for country z Answer Angola out Botswana out etc Question Where do I find the total cost of hydropower expansion for country z Answer Angola out Botswana out etc Question Where do I find the total cost of the operations and maintenance for country z Answer Angola out Botswana out etc Question Where do I change the fixed capital cost of new thermal sites Answer Sections 1 and 2 Appendix IV FGCC fixed costs for new combined cycle Section 1 FGLC fixed cost for new large coal Section 2 Question Where do I change the fixed capital cost of new hydropower plants Answer Section 1 Appendix V Change the values of the variable HNFcost 127 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 6 6 20 Question Where do I change the fixed capital cost of new transmission lines Answer Section 4 Appendix III Change the values of the variable PFNFc 6 6 21 Question Where do I change the capital cost of extensions to thermal sites Answer Section 3 4 Appendix IV NTexpcost expansion cost of new gas turbine Section 3 NCCexpcost expansion cost of new combined cycle Section 3 NSCexpcost expansion of new small coal Section 4 NLCexpcost expansion of new large coal Section 4 6 6 22 Question Where do I change the capital cost of extensions to existing hydropower sites Answer Section 5 Appendix V Change values to the variable HOVcost
35. y downhill generation iv unserved energy if any v total c Energy Supply MWh yr provided by domestic generation in b i above further broken down by plant type and location See Table 1 3 as well as the load factors for each type and location Load factor yearly K Wh 8760 capacity expressed as d Energy imported MWh yr in b ii above further broken down by country origin e Energy exported MWh yr in a ii above further broken down by country destination Section E Costs Revenues This section reports the costs and revenues that arise from the physical flows in MWh and construction in MW reported in Sections A through D Zeroes are entered for inactive units Subsection a gives yearly undiscounted country expenditures on fuels i in total for the year and the total discounted over the horizon the reason this total discounted horizon cost is usually much bigger than the sum of the discounted yearly costs is that the horizon total is adjusted for the number of years per period while the yearly total is not ii expressed as MWh generated e g total expenditures reported in E a above divided by total generation D b above again by plant type Subsection b gives total undiscounted variable O amp M costs year broken down by plant type by year and the total discounted over the horizon 138 Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 Subsection c gives water costs u
36. ys are shown in Table 6 1 118 Type omMmrANI DUN FW WN BWwWwW WWW WNN NY NNN NNNN PRP RP eB Be ee ee DAandKRONHFSTOEOA ANIA AKRHONHKF TOA NA UNUKRwWNHRE OC SAPP SAPP Long Term Model USER MANUAL February 2001 Table 6 1 Weights Season Day Hour Season Day Hour Total Hours Summer Average Avdy 0 75 260 12 2340 Summer Average Avnt 0 75 260 8 1560 Winter Average Avdy 0 25 260 12 780 Winter Average Avnt 0 25 260 8 520 Summer Peak Avdy 0 75 52 12 468 Summer OffPeak Avdy 0 75 52 12 468 Summer Peak Avnt 0 75 52 8 312 Summer OffPeak Avnt 0 75 52 8 312 Summer Average Hr9 0 75 260 1 195 Summer Average Hrl9 0 75 260 1 195 Summer Average Hr20 0 75 260 1 195 1 Summer Average Hr21 0 75 260 195 Winter Peak Avdy 0 25 52 12 156 Winter OffPeak Avdy 0 25 52 12 156 Winter Peak Avnt 0 25 52 8 104 Winter OffPeak Avnt 0 25 52 8 104 Winter Average Hr9 0 25 260 1 65 Winter Average Hrl9 0 25 260 1 65 Winter Average Hr20 0 25 260 1 65 Winter Average Hr21 0 25 260 1 65 Summer Peak Hr9 0 75 52 1 39 Summer Peak Hr19 0 75 52 1 39 Summer Peak Hr20 0 75 52 1 39 Summer Peak Hr21 0 75 52 1 39 Summer OffPeak Hr9 0 75 52 1 39 Summer OffPeak Hr19 0 75 52 1 39 Summer OffPeak Hr20 0 75 52 1 39 Summer OffPeak Hr21 0 75 52 1 39 Winter Peak Hr9 0 25 52 1 13 Winter Peak Hr19 0 25 52 1 13 Winter Peak Hr20 0 25 52 1 13 Winter Peak Hr21 0 25 52 1 13 Winter OffPeak Hr9 0 25 52 1 13 Winter OffPeak Hr19 0 25 52 1 13 Winter OffPeak Hr20 0 25 52 1 13 Winter OffPe
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