Home

(SODAC) Model - Federation of American Scientists

1. see AVERTED LOSSES measure of how much damage a player can avoid by striking first rather than retaliating a measure of potential capabilities if no actual exchange occurs not a measure of damage averted by changing force structure between turns MDA Ballistic Trajectory defined as trajectory traced after the propulsive force is terminated and the body is acted upon only by gravity and aerodynamic drag START a missile that is a weapon delivery vehicle that has a ballistic trajectory over most of its flight path MDA Any missile that does not rely upon aerodynamic surfaces to produce lift and consequently follows a ballistic trajectory when thrust is terminated warheads deployed on ballistic missiles figure that translates the number of weapons of a given type into the number of targets needed to attack that weapon type bases are the locations at which strategic forces are stationed field on the Systems Edit screen that indicates whether a particular strategic system s basing option is mobile or fixed run mode option that allows the user to run the model based on pre programmed settings an explosive device fused to detonate under specified conditions typically free fall nuclear weapon deployed on aircraft 10 For more information on missile defense and ballistic missile terminology see the Missile Defense Agency MDA website http www acg osd mil bmdo 54 SPARTA Inc
2. intercontinental field on the Systems Edit screen that indicates the operational distance in kilometers of a particular strategic system in values and statistics for selected measures displayed in spreadsheet format Research amp Development the cost of conceptualizing and designing strategic systems for a particular measure the relative percentage between one player s measure value to that of its competitor the nature of interaction between players e g competitor 39 66 Primary Secondary Tertiary alliance Potential Firm or Neutral button that allows the user to display chart results from a previously played game button that allows the user to generate information on a Game button on the Chart options screen that allows the user to 64 SPARTA Inc RESTORE MODEL SUGGESTION RESTORE ORIG POSTURE RETALIATION ALERT RATE RETALIATION STRATEGY RIDEOUT RUN RUN MODE RV RVs NEG RVs NEGATED RVs PEN RVs PENETRATING SAVE SAVE ALL CHARTS SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 adjust the display of the Chart options GUI button on the Posture Edit screen that allows the user to restore the model s suggested changes to strategic force structure button on the Posture Edit screen that allows the user to disregard the model s suggestions and restore the strategic forces posture that it began the gam
3. Psr Ppr Averted Losses Weapons available for 1st strike Probability of Launch Probability of Penetration of 1st strike Probability of Detonation Weapons available for Retaliatory strike Probability of Survival of Retaliatory strike Probability of Penetration for Reserve strike 76 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Balance rala We X Pi X Por X Pa Wye X Psr X P1 X Ppr X Pa ib Wp X PiX Pop X Pa WX Psr X Pi X Ppr X Pa B Wa X Psr X Pi X Ppr X Pa pbb w x PiX Pop X Pa Wry X Psp X PiS Por Pa B W X Py X Ppp X Pg Wye X Psr X PLX Ppr X Pa hy Wr X Pir Pt X Ppr X Pa P Bi Initial balance from Blue s perspective Bonn Post Blue 1st Strike balance from Blue s perspective B pbr Post Red 1st Strike balance from Blue s perspective Weapons available for first strike Weapons available for retaliation strike Probability of Surviving Enemy 1st strike Probability of Launch Probability of Penetration for Retaliatory strike Probability of Detonation Weapons available reserve strike Probability of Surviving Enemy Reserve strike Probability of Penetration for Reserve strike Weapon Availability Gala W Wa X Ps X P X Pp X Pa W WX a XT W Weapons available W Weapons da Strike Allocation r Alert Rate e Strike Allocation Percent of forces intended for a particular strike e Alert Rate Percent of forces on line not down for main
4. State Arms Control Foreign e identifying optimal strategic Policy Assessment balance e negotiating arms reduction agreements Think Tanks Federally Foreign Policy j E naa Funded Research and Assessment Arms Development Centers Control Strategic e evaluating US ATA IE FFRDC e g RAND Forecasting posture on national level e analyzing policy implications Foreign Policy of strategic behavior Academia Assessment e introducing strategic concepts Teaching Research with hands on tools 52 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 VIII APPENDICES The Appendices contain supporting material and documentation for the SODAC Model and User s Manual A Glossary ABM Anti Ballistic Missile Treaty signed between the U S and U S S R in 1972 placed limits on ballistic missile defense forces U S withdrawal December 2001 ABS MAX GDP Absolute Maximum Gross Domestic Product the maximum percentage of GDP that a player can expend on defense needs under extraordinary i e threatening circumstances ABS NUM an objective non percentage number see ABSOLUTE ABSOLUTE an objective non percentage number see ABS NUM ACCURACY naut miles accuracy of offensive systems with regards to distance to desired impact point such a system can expect to achieve ACR Arms Control Regimes agreements and institutions designed to limit and or reduce strategic arms production and deployment see a
5. I INTRODUCTION The Strategic Offense Defense and Arms Control SODAC Model is designed to simulate strategic force behavior among multiple countries or players It is intended as a tool for analysts commanders and decision makers to simulate strategic environments project adversary behavior and identify optimal courses of action This User s Manual is intended to familiarize the reader and user with the capabilities of the SODAC Model and to facilitate its utilization It explains the model s basic functions documents technical details and provides a step by step set of instructions for operating the model After reviewing the manual you should be skilled enough to run most strategic game applications on the model Additional use will improve your ability to use SODAC The User s Manual is written in a concise format The tone is informal to ensure clear communication and instruction The manual covers the basics of Getting Started General Characteristics of the model Specific Functions actually Operating the Model a Practical Example and Potential Applications The Appendices contain a Glossary of terms tips for Troubleshooting and a Technical Details section x Main Options ACRs Alliances Criteria mene Defenses Doctrines Systems Postures Exit The SODAC Model Version 2 0 presented here is a substantial update to the original Version 1 0 Contained in the
6. BOMBER CMs BOMBERS BOOSTPHASE BOOST PHASE BOOST PHASE INTERCEPTORS CANCEL CARRIERPENFACTOR CHARTS CHECK UNCERTAINTY CMs CMP COMPETITOR SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 cruise missiles delivered by bombers field that enables the user to stipulate how many bomber delivered cruise missiles are allowed under a particular Arms Control Regime aircraft designed for delivery of long range and or large scale airstrikes in this case with nuclear weapons START an airplane of a type any one of which was initially constructed or later converted to be equipped for bombs or air to surface missiles see BOOST PHASE MDA first phase of a ballistic missile trajectory during which it is being powered by its engines usually lasts 3 to 5 minutes reaches an altitude of about 200 km whereupon powered flight ends defense systems designed to intercept offensive missiles during launch stages or early in flight button that allows the user to terminate or discard model Inputs Carrier Penetration Factor the probability that a strategic weapons carrier will penetrate an adversary s defenses graphical representations of selected model measures button that allows the user to change the percentage of a variable calculated in the exchange model to determine what effect the variable has on the measure results cruise missiles see CRUISEMISSLE Counter Military
7. DOWN l effpat Prewor ai Warheads RYsNeg PostBLLe istidi Warheads l RY sPen PostBLLE ist Warheads Uncertain Yariable 9 None BUJE 10 10 Satisfied with his analysis from Turn 1 the analyst selects the Continue to Next Turn button and proceeds with the game The optimizer s suggested response for Turn 2 proposes little to no change In this iteration the analyst is interested in what moves would preserve the status quo Given his analysis from the previous turn the analyst agrees with the suggested response and again selects the Yes button to accept the model s changes On the Chart options for Turn 2 screen he examines the same measures Warheads GREEN RED Cost O amp M that he reviewed in Turn 1 Again the model shows no Delta in either of the player s warhead stockpiles This time the model generates O amp M cost charts from 2003 to 2012 5 year turn duration over the course of two turns The charts likewise illustrate no significant changes in O amp M costs for any of the players By accepting the model s suggested responses the analyst has been able to preserve the status quo He decides to take a different approach in the next turn In Turn 3 the analyst rejects the model s proposed course of action by selecting No on the Suggested Response Accept Changes screen This time he is interested in how more aggressive behavior by BLUE would influe
8. 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 14 4 TPTI EMBLEM_SHEET SPREADSHEET TEMPLATES 7 dat gt F e C NN N Astart H S A Microsoft excel DTRA Ode 10 46 am The Master display has two tabs Main and Options Using the buttons on the Main tab you can manipulate certain aspects of the model s performance that are explained below The Options tab contains additional features that enable you to define how the model operates For example Run Mode is a field on the Options tab that allows you to decide between operating the model interactively Interactive or automatically Automated The default position is Interactive Interactive allows you to control game play throughout every turn accepting or rejecting the changes recommended by the computer In doing so it also presents you with information on the strategic adjustments made by other players in the scenario so that you can make an informed decision on how to act next In the Interactive mode decision making is defined partially in advance and partially in real time with you the user interpreting developments and acting on the player s interests By contrast Automated instructs the model to run the simulation by itself optimizing each player s behavior to the extent possible based on the specified preferences thresholds and constraints In the Automated Run Mode a player s
9. EFFECTIVE BALANCE EMBLEM_SHEET EMT EXIT RUN FIRM ALLIANCE FIRST STRIKE READINESS RATE FIRST STRIKE STRATEGY FIXED FORCETYPE GDP FILE GDP PROFILE GENERATE CHART SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 see EFFECTIVE BALANCE the ratio of forces between competitors measured before any potential exchanges i e Prewar after the default side launches first i e Post BLUE First Main Strike and after the default side launches second e g Post RED First Main Strike the spreadsheet with accompanying tab that displays the DTRA logo behind the model operations screens Equivalent Megatonnage the actual explosive power of a weapons system measured in millions of tons of TNT megatons raised to the two thirds power evaluation of a weapons system s destructive power 1 EMT generates a 2 3 psi shockwave over the equivalent area of 58 km button on the Chart options screen that enables the user to terminate a running game and depart the scenario mutually confirmed agreement for coordination of effort or self percentage of strategic forces operational and prepared for use in first strike player s preferred strategy on targeting and sequencing the use of strategic offensive forces either OMT or SOP type of land based strategic system deployed in a static permanent location such as ICBMs in silos field on the Systems Edit screen that indicates whether the st
10. Master screen illustrated below through which you will operate the model The background of the model will be an EMBLEM_SHEET spreadsheet with a large DTRA logo emblazoned in the center Note There will also be a SPREADSHEET TEMPLATES tab that is inaccessible from the Master screen The Master screen contains all of the relevant model functions represented by a button SCENARIO ACRS ALLIANCES POSTURES CRITERIA DOCTRINES OFFENSES DEFENSES and SYSTEMS Understanding how to manipulate the specific functions is critical to successfully operating the model Perhaps the two most important functions are SCENARIO and DOCTRINES The SCENARIO function allows you to design and run a model simulation while the DOCTRINES function lets you specify how players employ their strategic forces However rather than attempting to explain these functions initially it may prove more useful to first describe the model s general characteristics and capabilities Section IV offers a full discussion of what the specific functions are and how they fit into the SODAC Model SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 EE File Edit Yiew Insert Format Tools Data Window Help 5 aj x EAEE gt B 70 E 26 s 2 4AE oA 7 Sie 2 e a en es inl eT en ene eae 14 or 1 2 3 4 5 6 era 8 9 10 11 12 1 Criteria 14 15 Doctrines 16 17 18 19 20
11. NEUTRAL NEW NON SOF NORM MAX GDP NUMBER TURNS NUMPROCUREDPER YEAR OFFENSES OFFENSIVE FORCES OK OKAY SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 intercontinental ballistic missiles that are transported and not based in a fixed location START mobile launcher of ICBMs is defined as a road mobile launcher of ICBMs or arail mobile launcher of ICBMs field that displays the number of warheads mounted on mobile ICBM s that are allowed under a particular Arms Control Regime field on the System Edit screen that indicates the method of travel basing and or mission for a strategic system Air Based Land Based Sea Based offensive BoostPhase Midcourse Terminal defensive relationship between players not characterized by cooperation or competition non aligned officially impartial button that allows the user to input new data into the model in order to create an original profile non Strategic Offensive Forces descriptive category of measure that characterizes the strategic balance between players calculated without strategic offensive forces Normal Maximum Gross Domestic Product the maximum percentage of GDP that a player may expend on defense needs under normal i e non threatening circumstances field on the Options tab that allows the user to specify the number of game iterations field on the System Edit screen that indicates the rate per year at which a strategic system is pu
12. Postures such a way that individual functions e g CRITERIA can be manipulated either c eea Betanees independently or together with other functions to test various hypotheses These manipulated A mm elements can then be tied together in a hypothetical scenario Top Down Modification Alternatively you may begin with a hypothetical scenario in mind and work top Scenario down tailoring the sub elements to that scenario The bottom up approach is most ACRs Alliances Postures applicable for a detailed picture when you are testing small variations within or between major scenarios The top down approach may prove more useful for comparing larger issues and major scenarios i e the big picture Criteria Offenses Defenses Doctrines Systems In addition to changing conditions in the model you may also elect to change information in the database itself The default SODAC database is intended as a starter database for initial use and testing It was compiled from open source materials and information found on publicly available websites Making changes to the model allows you to specify how the model should operate on the given set of data Making changes to the database on the other hand allows you to control what information guides model operations There may be a variety of reasons for making changes to the database whether it is updat
13. Strategic Nuclear Delivery Vehicles systems for transporting and deploying strategic nuclear weapons e g bombers ICBM s SLBM s CM s 66 SPARTA Inc SNDVPERPLATFORM SOF SPREADSHEET_TEMPLATES SSBN STARTTREATYCNT START YEAR SUA SUB CATEGORY SUPERHEAVY SUPER HEAVY ICBMs SUPER HEAVY ICBM WARHEADS SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 field that displays the number of Strategic Nuclear Delivery Vehicles based on a platform or weapons system type Strategic Offensive Forces first strike preference for directly targeting adversary s strategic warfighting capabilities spreadsheet that contains formats to be used by the exchange model portion of the program ballistic missile submarine field that displays the number of warheads per missile permitted by START Treaty counting rules field that allows the user to specify the year in which the model initiates the game Standard Urban Area descriptive category of measure that calculates the total urban area that would be affected during a nuclear exchange 200 km equivalent to New York metropolitan area secondary category for measures additional information that allows the user to specify measures under varying circumstances e g Effective Balance Absolute PreWar measurement of weight that determines in part the performance of a ballistic missile vehicle with a launch weight greater than 106 000 kilograms or a throw weight
14. containing selection boxes and fields for various measures The right side of the screen contains directional buttons for navigating the accompanying ChartData spreadsheet and a series of option buttons for analyzing measures in the game At the bottom of the page is another series of fields and list boxes that deal with uncertainty in the game The Chart options operate in conjunction with one another That is to say the option buttons on the right control functions for the values selected on the left Put simply after you specify what you want to look at you choose how you would like to analyze it A You will begin by selecting values from the Raw Data and Charts sections of the screen The Raw Data section contains three selection boxes and three corresponding fields The selection boxes represent Warheads Interceptors and Platforms respectively The corresponding fields list boxes allow you to specify which player is being analyzed with respect to the selected measure 37 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 2 3 4 PLATFORM SYSTEM WARHEADS TURN 0 WARHEADS TURN 1 B_Silo B_ICBM_G1 900 513 B_Silo B_ICBM_G2 500 B_Silo B_ICBM_G3 0 B_SSBH_G2 B_SLBM_G2 3456 B_SSBH_G1 B_SLBM_G1 0 B_SSBH_G2 B_SLBM_G3 0 B_Bomber_C_G1 B_ALCM 1440 B_Bomber_P_G1 B_Bomb 0 B_Bomber_P_G2 B_SRAM 0 Likewise the Charts section displays a series of selection boxes and fields list boxes for use in constructing charts of your mode
15. lower tool bar of the computer screen informing you what actions are being taken by the exchange model The Master screen will switch to a Changes spreadsheet with a new GUI screen The Changes spreadsheet will display all of the data values and changes recommended by the model 2 Strategic Decision making 34 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Suggested Response Accept changes x Yes No You will begin at Turn 0 The new screen will read Suggested Response Accept Changes It contains six buttons Yes No Up Down Right and Left The directional buttons are the primary means for navigating the model s spreadsheets The model optimizer automatically factors in the programmed criteria examines the data and proposes the most appropriate course of action It is designed to either achieve the goals i e thresholds you input into the model or come as close as possible to achieving those goals in the face of certain constraints Once the optimizer compares player thresholds it will recommend to you suggested changes to achieve your player s BLUE s goals It is your decision whether or not to accept these suggested changes Ifyou select No the model will display a third Posture Edit screen and a new Exchange spreadsheet showing the data values for each player The new screen contains three fields and six buttons The first two fields Offensive Forces and Defensive Force
16. s strategic capabilities and preferences The POSTURES function enables you to design that position When you select POSTURES the model accesses a profile containing the player s strategic criteria i e preferences capacity offensive and defensive positions i e force structure doctrine etc First you will elect to create a new posture edit or delete an existing one When creating a new posture you must first specify a name and then confirm it by selecting the Okay button If you choose to edit an existing posture select one from the posture window and select the Edit button A Posture Edit screen will appear Choosing New or Edit grants you the opportunity to develop a new posture based on new inputs or by modifying an existing posture profile respectively Once you have chosen New or Edit you must define the three fields that comprise posture Criteria Offensive Forces and Defensive Forces Each field gives you the options of New Edit or Delete You may also specify the player affiliation and Turn via the list boxes at the lower part of the Posture Edit screen Note Preferences for First Strike Strategy Launch Posture and so forth are addressed under the DOCTRINES function After defining the fields you must either save the new posture 21 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 you have developed assuming you want to simulate it in the model or cancel it to consider alternatives Remembe
17. D 0001 with an affiliation of BLUE Likewise only GREEN weapons systems would be available to GREEN If no posture profile with the appropriate affiliation exists you must create one for the player The other mechanism for screening out inconsistencies is the computer model itself When the model begins its run the computer will compare the data for each specific function with the profile for your selected player If the computer identifies any discrepancies it will automatically adjust for them If for example you attempt to marry an offensive posture that deploys an American Minuteman III MMUTI missile with player GREEN that represents China the computer will recognize the inconsistency and make the Minuteman III missile unavailable for player GREEN Nevertheless it is primarily your responsibility as the user to make sure that the selections are consistent and appropriate Once you have conducted a game it will be time stamped and stored in the Scenario window under the title you assign it e g BGvsR_SYr_max_10182002125556PM It is assumed that you the user may have many purposes for running games on the SODAC Model For instance you may wish to test different moves or behavior under the same scenario Thus the model offers you the option of replaying the same scenario interactively Perhaps you want to continue the model scenario you just ran picking up where it left off in order to evaluate how behavior change
18. a mix of factors in this case offensive forces defensive forces and criteria Scenarios structure a simulation in which players build or reduce forces to meet security goals given a series of pre set conditions The SCENARIO function allows you to both design and run a simulation It is the primary interface between the user and the model making it one of the most important model functions When you select the SCENARIO button on the Master screen you are instructing the model to access a story composed of several other stored profiles On the screen you are presented with a window displayed below containing these stories as well as several additional buttons New Edit Delete Run Report and Replay BysR_BPen1 BysRwNeutO Sir Escalation ON4051102 Escalation_ONA4051102_11112002125524PM Escalation_ON4051102_1111200215224PM al Scenario_1 Scenario_2 Scenario_2_ NoMin_1 r New Edit Delete Run Report Replay If you wish to create a new scenario select New and specify a scenario name Once you specify the name confirm it by selecting Okay or disregard by selecting Cancel Selecting New or Edit opens a Scenario Edit screen containing a series of fields These fields include Postures all players with corresponding selection boxes Alliances Arms Control Regime Description Start Year Turn Duration Learn Mode and Turn The Postures Alliances and Arms Control Regime fields contain the
19. button serves as a tool for identifying the drivers behind a particular result in a simple i e 2 player scenario When you have finished analyzing the measures and are prepared to begin the next iteration of the game select Continue to Next Turn You will then proceed to Turn 2 4 Completing the Game Repeat this sequence for the duration of the game e g 5 turns After your last turn when you have analyzed the measures under the Chart options screen the game will automatically end The Master GUI will disappear and the Master spreadsheet with the DTRA logo in the background will be prominently displayed At this point you are able to navigate the various spreadsheets directly The SCENARIO you have just run will be saved to the model database To access the model again select the Tools menu from the Microsoft Excel toolbar and scroll down to DTRA The Master GUI Main tab will reappear 40 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 VI PRACTICAL EXAMPLE U S China and Russia Simulating Asymmetry in the Interactive Mode An analyst with the DOD s Office of Net Assessment ONA wants to see how U S force structure decisions will influence Russian and Chinese strategic behavior The analyst plans to use the SODAC Model to design a game in which future U S Russian and Chinese strategic postures adjust to one another In his story the U S and China have entered into a low i
20. decision making process is defined in advance You cannot actively participate in a player s decision making process during the course of the run The Number Turns field allows you to specify how many iterations the game will run 1 49 The Options tab also grants you the option of saving the model information to an Excel file Save Data to Excel selection box If you select this option the computer will save a workbook of information for the scenario you have just run with separate spreadsheets for each turn to the folder out of which you are running the model The saved information will be labeled by the time stamped scenario name e g BENT_TEST_01_122003113619AM SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 If you exit out of this screen and wish to return you can reenter to it by going to the Tools menu on your Excel tool bar and selecting DTRA Structure and Options All of the buttons on the Main tab of the Master screen with the exception of SCENARIOS present you with three options to design a new game New modify an existing game Edit or purge a previous game Delete Whenever New or Edit is selected you are given the opportunity to save any modifications Save Save As or exit out of the screen Cancel Creating a new option rather than editing an existing one will require you to specify a name for that option and then confirm it by selecting the Okay button Delete will purge any item s
21. field see the ACRs description The Description field provides you with more detailed pieces of information about the selected scenario It also allows you to explain the conditions present in that scenario The last four fields pertain to the operation of the model for the given scenario You can manipulate the Start Year field to designate the year in which the game should initiate its run 1980 2006 Turn Duration enables you to specify the length of iterations in the game i e how long each turn represents in terms of model years 1 5 years Note The longer the Turn Duration the faster you can get results for a given number of years However results may be less accurate or less realistic with a larger turn duration Finally the Turn field indicates the current round of play 15 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Learn Mode warrants special attention The model can operate under a range of assumptions as to how players make security decisions and resource allocations The Learn Mode field allows you to instruct the model on how to make these choices in the game using the model optimizer either none learn mode is not activated Choice 1 then maximize attempt first move with pre set preferences parameters then maximize primary measure if first attempt fails Go straight to maximize identify best possible solution given interacting preferences and constraints or Choice sequence or m
22. in effect in the real world Bear in mind that this range of options is designed to allow you to test multipolar strategic interaction under past present future and alternative conditions For example options for future arms control regimes e g START 5 let you evaluate how strategic interaction might be affected if subsequent and perhaps improved arms control programs were established Others such as the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty START 2 were never fully and officially ratified by all of the concerned parties However states may continue to conduct their strategic planning as if START 2 were in effect adjusting force levels in accordance with the proposed provisions of START 2 Still other ACRs have come and gone Though now considered defunct as a result of the December 2001 U S withdrawal the 1972 Anti Ballistic Missile ABM Treaty is still listed as an ACR option in the SODAC Model There are two main reasons for this First the ABM Treaty was in force for almost 30 years prior to the U S withdrawal Therefore any simulations set prior to December 2001 must take the ABM Treaty into account Second preserving the ABM Treaty option allows you to conduct analyses on how limitations on missile defenses would impact strategic behavior in other scenarios It also allows you to examine the counterfactual case i e how would a strategic scenario be influenced if the ABM Treaty or a similar ACR were still in effect STA
23. of GREEN and RED He had expected some kind of response by one of the two particularly GREEN as BLUE s primary competitor GREEN s decision not to respond forces the analyst to reconsider his hypotheses e Does it mean that GREEN China or RED Russia is genuinely interested in preserving the nuclear balance through minimum deterrence If so what is their motivation e On the other hand why do GREEN and RED fail to reciprocate when BLUE unilaterally cuts its forces thus putting it at a numerical disadvantage in terms of warheads e Do GREEN and RED still find it necessary to rely on their nuclear stockpiles for security perhaps because of slow or failed conventional modernizations or are they attempting to compete with BLUE e Would BLUE the U S accept being at a disadvantage e g in terms of overall warhead or SNDV numbers Would the BLUE consider reducing its force levels below that of RED and GREEN Would BLUE tolerate modernization and expansion of the GREEN RED arsenals beyond that of its own e How did RED s ambiguous status factor in as a Potential Ally to both GREEN and BLUE e What impact if any did BLUE s decision to deploy missile defenses have on GREEN and RED and how does did it affect the strategic balance Would deployment of larger numbers of interceptors or other types of strategic defense provoke a different reaction from GREEN or RED 50 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0
24. of Land Based offensive platforms i e Silo SS 18_M5 from 180 to 100 units to simulate Russia s trend towards unilateral reductions He saves all inputs and changes then returns to the Scenario Edit screen 44 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 x x Save E Offensive Edit for OFFENSE_5 xi Ta Land Based a Plat T Type Bases Plats Silos SNDV WH Off 5 18_M5 100 100 100 1000 E x o Platforms r Plat T An Coa cmn Iv New Edit Delete ar Air Based Plat T weap T Bases Plats Silo Weapons WH Alia Bomber Bomb l l 4 4 Arms sta Affi New Edit Delete Desc Escalation _ONA0S1102 Chine and the U S are engaged in an increasingly confrontational relationshio trendina towards stratecic competition Russia remains a malor nuclear power but No alliance system is initially specified for his new Escalation scenario so the analyst uses the list box on the Alliances field to select Alliance_2 To tailor the alliance system to his scenario the analyst must edit the relationships and ranges between players Selecting the Edit button for the Alliances field he accesses the Alliance Edit screen The analyst uses the list boxes fields that correspond to various pairs of players to define their alliance relationships Since China and the U S are opposed in his story he defines the BLUE GREEN relationship as Primary Competitor Russia i
25. same manner Will they maintain their current force levels reduce their numbers of warheads and delivery systems modernize and build or adopt another approach If they do decide to modernize and arm how fast will they proceed Will their response lead to a spiraling arms race And how will subsequent decisions influence one another You can modify SODAC to simulate potential scenarios that might result from the fallout of the 2002 NPR Players are color coded for easy reference BLUE RED and GREEN nominally represent the United States Russia and China respectively ORANGE and PURPLE are not initially assigned to represent real countries They may be tailored though to fit the profile of any number of nuclear powers e g Britain France India and Pakistan BLUE is the default player for the user of the model What this means is that in the Interactive mode you will be operating the model as player BLUE and the computer will make recommendations according to BLUE s goals and capabilities Since the user is assumed to be from the U S the profile for BLUE is constructed around the U S strategic position However player designations are notional so BLUE may be modified to represent any actor e g if you play the role of China you will simply modify BLUE s preferences and force structure to reflect those of China In the Automated mode the computer will play the roles of all selected players based on their defined p
26. the year in which his scenario begins to unfold He chooses to retain the 5 Year timeframe for the game Understanding the intricacies of a trilateral nuclear relationship he sets the Learn Mode on Go straight to maximize which instructs the model to seek a solution that is as close as possible to the player s primary measure threshold He does not specify a Turn Finally for his own benefit and record he explains the details of the scenario in the Description window Once all changes and inputs have been made the analyst selects the Save or Save As button on the Scenario Edit screen and the scenario is stored in the model database for future use Note It is critical that you save any input or changes for each screen that you have been working on Because the elements are discrete you must not only save changes to individual profiles but you must also save those profile changes in the larger scenario etc C The analyst has now defined the parameters for his game scenario and he is ready to use the model After he saves his inputs on the Scenario Edit screen he is returned to the Master screen the main GUI He selects the SCENARIO button 46 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 again and scrolls down through the window to find his stored scenario Escalation ONA051102 Highlighting the scenario he selects the Run button to begin the game When the game is ini
27. to access a stored offensive profile assigned to the player in question Once you choose to operate the OFFENSES function you will be presented with the familiar New Edit or Delete options Selecting New or Edit will allow you to manipulate the level of strategic forces 28 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 xi Land Based Plat Type Sys Type Bases Plats Silos SNDY WH Silo MMIIT_Mki2a 300 300 300 900 Edit Delete Sea Based Plat Type Sys Type Bases Plats Silos SNDY WH Ohio_Class Trident_DS 1 1 24 192 New Edit Delete Air Based Plat Type Weap Type Bases Plats Silo Weapons WH B 2_Spirit Bomb 1 1 16 16 Affil New Edit Delete ne g se __saveas_ Cancel o An Offensive Edit screen will appear with three windows representing Land Based Sea Based and Air Based systems respectively In addition the Offensive Edit screen contains an Affiliation Affil field that associates a particular profile with a given player and a Turn field that specifies a particular turn The windows will display relevant information for the specific systems you have selected Each window will also have its individual set of New Edit and Delete buttons If you select the New button another window will appear with an inventory of strategic systems available to you Select the Add button to add the system to a player s inventory or select Cancel to back out of the screen Ta x Platfor
28. to process data for that measure according to the selected unit For instance Effective Balance WH will instruct the model to calculate the total ratio of forces before during and after an exchange in terms of warhead levels when making strategic decisions for a player Measures are also characterized by descriptive sub categories such as Total Non SOF PreWar and Post COLOR 1 Main Strike that define the conditions under which strategic interaction occurs and how the selected measures should be applied under those conditions Note that Post BLUE First Main Strike means that the model s default player has launched first otherwise the default player BLUE is assumed to have launched second e g Post RED First Main Strike Using the same example as before Effective Balance WH Post BLUE 1 Main Strike would tell the computer to calculate the total ratio of forces in terms of warhead levels that would exist after the default player BLUE launched a nuclear first strike Measures are valued as either Relative Percentages Rel or Absolute Numbers Abs Num Absolute If a measure is treated as an Absolute Number the model will strive to achieve an objective quantity of the specified measure for a player If the measure is treated as a Relative Percentage the model will attempt to achieve a proportional quantity with regard to other players For example if a v
29. two players Alliance Edit for Alliance _2 a x Relationships GREEN ORANGE PURPLE RED BLUE ary Competitor Neutral z Neutral Potentialally gt GREEN neutral f Neutral Potentialaly ORANGE Neutral Neutral gt PURPLE Neutral Ranges GREEN ORANGE PURPLE RED BLUE intercontinente z Medium Medium Intercontinent GREEN medium Medium Intermediate ORANGE medium Medium z PURPLE Medium z Turn Save Save s Cancel 0 X The second option also offers a matrix that asks you to specify the ranges between particular players Ranges are divided into Self Short Medium Intermediate and Intercontinental As before the range for an individual player will automatically default to Self Range denotes both the geographic scale of interaction between players and the operational capabilities of strategic systems It instructs the model as to what systems may be employed against a particular opponent depending on whether the opponent is within range or not Only systems that can range at least as far as the distance between opponents are included in the run e g in an exchange between players with a specified range of Medium only systems that can reach at least 1000 km would be considered At the bottom of the screen are the familiar Save Save As 20 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Cancel buttons and Turn field Once
30. 001 e Are the drop in O amp M costs advantageous for BLUE i e releasing more money to be allocated elsewhere The analyst concludes that given the parameters of this game Russia and China are unlikely to respond to U S dominance or even minor upgrades to the U S position so long as the status quo economically strategically etc holds However the model does not answer why this is the case The analyst speculates that either the two countries are genuinely interested in preserving the strategic balance or they simply do not have the resources to compete with the US This simulation illustrates how the model is intended to provoke as many questions as it answers This one run conducted by the analyst was intended to solve a few minor questions In the process however it raised others that the analyst can now explore through succeeding runs From here the analyst can test any number of additional hypotheses or scenarios related to this original story For instance he may return to this scenario and modify BLUE s behavior to make it more extreme perhaps through further offensive force deployments or a more robust missile defense system As a result he may find that more extreme behavior by BLUE will prompt a more aggressive response by GREEN but not RED Russia He might then conclude from these additional findings that fairly extreme behavior by the U S would be required to provoke a similar response by China However Rus
31. 1 atmosphere the missile has completed firing its propulsion system longest part of its flight can last as long as 20 minutes defense systems designed to intercept hostile missiles during mid flight en route to target type of player that assumes that none of its competitors will coordinate against it thresholds and constraints for this player must be met separately against each of its competitors minimum percentage of ballistic missile defense interceptors assigned to one of three missions boost phase midcourse terminal minimum percentage of warheads deployed on one of three strategic platforms Land Based Sea Based Air Based Multiple Independently Targeted Reentry Vehicle a reentry vehicle carried by a delivery system that can place one or more reentry vehicles over each of several separate targets ballistic missiles that contain multiple independently targeted re entry vehicles see MIRVed BALLISTIC MISSILES cruise missiles that contain multiple independently targeted re entry vehicles see MIRVed ICBMs intercontinental ballistic missiles that contain multiple independently targeted re entry vehicles see MIRVed SLBMs submarine launched ballistic missiles that contain multiple independently targeted re entry vehicles type of land based strategic system deployed on a transporter whose location varies 61 SPARTA Inc MOBILEICBM MOBILE ICBM WARHEADS MOVEMENTTYPE
32. 2 for GREEN then presses the Edit button below the field On the subsequent Posture Edit screen he examines the values for CRITERIA and Defensive Forces DEFENSES electing to make no changes However the analyst does intend to modify GREEN s offensive posture OFFENSE_2 Selecting the Edit button below the Offensive Forces field the analyst enters the Offensive Edit screen He chooses to add a Sea Based offensive system for GREEN by selecting New highlighting the system Delta_IV SS N 23_M1 and pressing Add Note In the analyst s scenario this would signify China s acquisition of SSBN SLBM capability Once he has confirmed everything else on the screen he will select Save to return to the Posture Edit screen and Save once again to return to the Scenario Edit screen 43 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Scenario Edit for Escalation_ONAD51102 Posture Edit for Posture 2 whl Offensive Edit for OFFENSE_2 an crew E J f sawe SAR Cancel pee Escalation_ONAQS 102 China and the U S ae engaged in an increasingly confrontational relationship trendina towards strategi comoettion Russia remains a maior nudear cower but The analyst repeats this process for player RED i e Russia selecting Posture_5 and choosing to change RED s offensive posture to OFFENSE_5 He further alters RED s offensive posture by reducing the number
33. Abs Max GDP field refers to the percentage of GDP allocated for defense under extraordinary i e threatening circumstances Finally the Max Mil Exp Strategic Forces field establishes the maximum percentage of the defense budget allocated for strategic forces In the next set of fields Min Interceptors of total you specify the minimum percentage of interceptors dedicated to the Boost Phase Midcourse and Terminal defense missions respectively Similarly the set of fields below that Min Warheads of total allow you to specify the minimum percentage of warheads stationed on Land Based Sea Based and Air Based platforms respectively The CRITERIA screen also contains fields for three distinct sets of preferences The Preference 1 field lets you specify whether a player is Unilateralist or Cooperativist in its behavior The Preference 2 field asks whether the player favors Offense or Defense The Preference 3 field allows you to indicate whether a player is Minimalist or Maximalist in its orientation to the strategic balance A Maximalist player will measure its forces against the combined forces of 23 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 all of its adversaries A Minimalist player is concerned only with the bilateral balance between one adversary at a time even when there are multiple players You may choose to check the boxes off to the side of these preference fiel
34. CBM Warheads Super Heavy ICBMs Super Heavy ICBM Warheads Mobile ICBM Warheads MIRVed ICBMs Ballistic Missiles MIR Ved Ballistic Missiles Ballistic Missile Warheads SSBNs SLBMs MIR Ved SLBMs SLBM Warheads Bombers Bomber CMs CMs AirBreather Warheads Total Interceptors Boost Phase Interceptors Midcourse Interceptors and Terminal Interceptors Fields are organized in a matrix for each of the five players i e BLUE GREEN ORANGE PURPLE RED You may alter the number of systems for a given category in any of the player fields Players or categories not involved in a particular scenario will display a default number of 99999 in their fields There are two additional fields for the ACRS function Available in and Implement by The Available in field allows you to specify when in what year or turn a particular ACR becomes available to the players The Implement by field instructs the model on when year or turn to activate the treaty constraints specified by you During turns leading up to the Implementation Year the model will generate constraints that serve to make even reductions in force levels in order for players to meet the treaty constraints by the implementation year As always select Save Save As or Cancel to finish using the ACRS function The ACRs function contains options for arms control regimes that have either expired been subsumed or have yet to be formed as well as the ones that are currently
35. ERAL CHARACTERISTICS This section will introduce you to characteristics and functions that are either standard throughout the model or important for model operation Manual Terminology The explanations found in this User s Manual are most useful if you are familiar with the terminology The following terms bolded here for illustration are represented in the font you will see them presented in throughout the manual e Screens a type of Graphical User Interface GUD serve as the control boxes that you will use to interact with the model e Windows are screen sections displaying data that you may select for use Fields are boxes located on the screens that contain values for the model that you may adjust or input e List boxes are controls on a given field that enable you to scroll down and select from a range of data e Selection Boxes and Selection Circles are smaller fields that allow you to specify what values you are adjusting Spreadsheets are forms created by Excel to accompany model data FUNCTIONS are the main operations conducted by the model Finally Tabs and Buttons are the switches on a screen used for accessing a particular operation Throughout the manual you will notice colored text boxes offset from the page These text boxes provide additional illustration to specific passages in the manual Using the Master Screen After selecting and opening the database you will be presented with the
36. PARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 C Technical Materials Appendix C contains technical documentation and resources that accompany the SODAC Model 1 OPTIMIZATION Solver the optimizer takes a set of variables and a set of constraints and will attempt to maximize or minimize a particular cell value by changing the values of the variables In our case the variables consist of the numbers of platforms and interceptors for a player s offense defense and the item maximized or minimized is cost or one of the measures The constraints consist of 5 categories 1 Constraints on the system variables themselves i e the number of platforms for SystemX cannot exceed 100 in the current turn due to industrial capacity out of production etc 2 Cost constraints The cost of building maintaining and doing R amp D on various systems cannot exceed a certain percentage of a player s GDP for each year that makes up the current turn If turn 1 encompasses the years 2001 through 2003 then a corresponding cost constraint will be in place for each of these years 3 Triad constraints ratios This refers to the percentage a player wants for each type of warhead land sea and air and interceptor type BP MC Term 4 Treaty constraints For players that obey offensive and or defensive aspects of treaties constraints are placed on the various categories so that the player is constrained to make even reductions on number of warheads numbe
37. Potential Equivalent Megatonnage per nautical square mile EMT nmi descriptive category of measure that calculates a player s strategic force capacity to threaten or destroy an adversary s military assets player identified as an adversary by the user ranked as Primary Secondary or Tertiary START also distinguishes between bomber and heavy bomber The latter must either have a range greater than 8000 kilometers or it must be equipped for long range nuclear ALCMs 55 SPARTA Inc CONTINUE CONTINUE TO NEXT TURN COOPERATIVIST COST COSTOandM YEAR COSTP YEAR COSTRandD YEAR COVERAGE CREDIBLEDECOYSPERWH CRITERIA SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 button on the Posture Edit screen that allows the user to accept the model s suggestions or the user s own edits and proceed to the next turn in the game button on the Chart options screen that advances the model to the next decision in the game player preference that favors coordination and interaction in strategic behavior over unilateral moves financial expenditure for strategic forces pertains to cost associated with offensive defensive forces either Operations and Maintenance O amp M Procurement Production P or Research and Development R amp D field on the Systems Edit screen that indicates the cost in U S dollars per year for operations and maintenance of a sele
38. RT 2 has been effectively replaced by the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty SORT of May 2002 However while the terms of the SORT agreement are purposefully vague they approximate the provisions outlined in START 2 in some respects Therefore the decision to retain the START 2 option in lieu of a SORT option is driven by the lack of specificity in the SORT agreement and the remaining similarities found between each of the ACRs 19 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 ALLIANCES Alliances Alliances are general agreements made between two states to coordinate their strategic behavior In the SODAC Model alliances simulate security cooperation against one or more other players The ALLIANCES function allows you to define players relationships with one another It directs the model on how players should interact with one another i e as partners or opponents On the Master screen select the button for ALLIANCES Selecting New or Edit will produce an Alliance Edit screen that presents you with two options for defining alliances The first is a matrix of fields for characterizing relationships between players Relationships are categorized by the following types Firm Alliance Potential Ally Neutral Primary Competitor Secondary Competitor and Tertiary Competitor You may specify the type of relationship by using the list box for the matrix field that corresponds to any
39. Readiness Rate Alert Rate Posture Land Based Fixed s0 o 1 100 1 Rideout z Mobile E o 1 i 100 Rideout z Sea Based 60 o 1 100 o 85 Rideout z Air Based 60 o 1 i00 65 o Rideout z Damage Requirement 90 o First Strike Strategy SOF v Defend SOF No X Retaliation Strategy SOF X The top of the Doctrine Employment Edit screen allows you to specify what measures the model should consider in determining player behavior how to weight those measures and which one is most important You may select a maximum of 8 measures for the model to consider A Measure window displays the measures currently selected for consideration Below the window are New and Delete buttons To dismiss a currently selected measure from further consideration highlight it with the cursor and select Delete If you wish to add a measure select New The New button will access an Available Measures screen with a window displaying various combinations of measures under different circumstances that are available to the player To add a measure highlight it with the cursor and select Add The highlighted measure will then be transferred to the primary Measure window for consideration by the model If you do not wish to add a measure or if you wish to exit the Available Measures screen select Cancel On the Doctrine Employment Edit screen there are also 8 Value fields corresponding to the maximum number of allo
40. Rideout to Other in a deteriorating security situation However the model contains no provisions for dynamic or evolving preferences SODAC is designed to explore one possible scenario and outcome at a time This design is meant to preserve the model s scientific integrity by allowing you to experiment with more extreme circumstances while preventing strategic behavior from automatically trending towards an equilibrium Instead you may run multiple scenarios under different conditions to achieve the same result While the model is extremely flexible certain parameters have been built into it to approximate realistic conditions These parameters typically come in the form of limitations and thresholds established by the CRITERIA and DOCTRINES functions The model will not allow you to manipulate the data in a way that would violate these parameters It will inform you when it cannot carry out your directed function For example if you type in a value greater than 100 for the minimum percentage of midcourse interceptors the model will prevent you from saving the corresponding CRITERIA However you do have the option of altering the parameters to accommodate changes you would like to make SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 The idea behind the SODAC Model is to allow you the user to evaluate various strategic situations by examining how other players competitors or adversaries will react to your behavior The model
41. Strategic Offense Defense and Arms Control SODAC Model User s Manual A Project by SPARTA Inc for The Defense Threat Reduction Agency Advanced Systems and Concepts Office April 2003 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 SPONSOR Defense Threat Reduction Agency Dr Stephen Younger Director Advanced Systems and Concepts Office Mr Richard Gullickson Director BACKGROUND The Defense Threat Reduction Agency DTRA was founded in 1998 to integrate and focus the capabilities of the Department of Defense DoD that address the weapons of mass destruction threat To assist the Agency in its primary mission the Advanced Systems and Concepts Office ASCO develops and maintains an evolving analytical vision of necessary and sufficient capabilities to protect United States and Allied forces and citizens from WMD attack ASCO is also charged by DoD and by the U S government in general to identify gaps in these capabilities and initiate programs to fill them It also provides support to the Threat Reduction Advisory Committee TRAC and its Panels with timely high quality research ASCO ANALYTICAL SUPPORT SPARTA Inc provides analytical support to DTRA through a series of projects on chemical biological and nuclear weapons issues This work was performed for DTRA under contract DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Dr Michael W Simon served as project leader Mr Guy T Grundman II was the principal author for this documentatio
42. alue of 20 were selected for the measure RVs Negated WH Absolute PostRED IstMainStrike the model acting on behalf of a BLUE player would attempt to negate 20 of its adversary s RED warhead re entry vehicles in the event of a RED first strike However if the measure were treated as a Relative Percentage of 20 the model would attempt to keep BLUE s value for RVs Negated WH Absolute PostRED1stMainStrike at least 20 of RED s value for that measure so that if RED s value for RVs Negated WH Absolute PostRED1stMainStrike were 50 then BLUE s value would have to be at least 10 During a run all measures are calculated for all players at every turn However only the set of selected measures have thresholds applied to them in order to drive the model s offensive and defensive adjustments The various options for measures units and categories allow you to simulate different principles or priorities that might guide states when using strategic forces during a potential conflict They construct alternate realities or scenarios in which you can evaluate how states might behave according to the doctrinal measures they follow In reality strategic doctrine is often guided by 7 In a sense Relative Percentage is more responsive to changes in an adversary s force structure than Absolute Numbers Once a player achieves an absolute measure value it may discontinue further force adjustments However if it values the measur
43. arameters Regardless of the Run Mode you select you must specify the functions of any players active in the scenario you intend to run i e BLUE s posture GREEN s criteria etc Part of SODAC s utility comes from its flexibility The model may be manipulated and adjusted on a number of levels to suit your individual needs However maximum flexibility may also produce contradictions at times For instance while the player designations colors are notional the specific functions i e POSTURES OFFENSES etc are modular and pre programmed in the default database e g OFFENSE_1 reflects the U S offensive forces You may select any specific function for any player regardless of how the function is oriented The reasons for doing so may vary but could include your belief that a given function more accurately represents the type of player you wish to study Theoretically then you may select a function that does not correspond to your selected player s profile e g OFFENSE_1 and GREEN There are two mechanisms built into SODAC to prevent this from happening First an Affiliation field is included on the POSTURES OFFENSES and DEFENSES functions The purpose of this field is to identify what profiles and systems are available or will be in the future to what players and to screen out those that are not Thus player GREEN would not be able to access a posture profile 11 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00
44. arms race e Ftc Remember SODAC is designed for flexibility You modify it to fit your needs SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Whenever changes are made to the model you are essentially creating a new version of the game However changes can be made in a couple of ways by creating entirely new profiles CRITERIA DOCTRINE etc for a given player from scratch i e based on new inputs using the New button or by modifying the player profiles currently stored in the model using the Edit button Moreover because some of the profiles contain elements of one another e g POSTURE includes CRITERIA etc it is possible to create a new profile and then incorporate it into an edited version of another profile The myriad of options available and the explanations for those options can be confusing To alleviate that confusion we use new in this manual to refer to changes made by using the New button and modify to signify changes made with the Edit button For the average user seeking to test basic hypotheses the Edit function may be more useful The advanced user can utilize the New function to incorporate additional data or to construct more rigorous country profiles BottomUp Modification The model can be manipulated and used in any number of ways However there are two basic approaches worth highlighting The first is a bottom up approach The model is designed in ACRs Alliances
45. aximize conduct quick check to decide whether to proceed with the choice sequence or go directly to maximizing the primary measure A player that has selected Choice 1 then maximize for its Learn Mode will attempt to pursue its end objectives in its preferred manner i e independent of other players in the first move the model optimizer will not initially balance the player s behavior against the scenario constraints e g economics competitor s response If this first attempt succeeds the player will adopt its preferred defense posture and will try the same approach in subsequent turns If however this first attempt should fail the model optimizer would activate and begin adjusting the player s behavior usually downward to come as close as possible to its specified preferences while also adhering to the scenario constraints For example a player may begin with ambitious procurement plans but once it finds itself unable to implement those plans either because of the costs or conflicts with other players it will moderate them and seek a procurement rate that is sufficient for accomplishing its goals without exceeding its resources or conflicting with other players On the other end of the spectrum is Go straight to maximize Under this Learn Mode the model would immediately begin balancing players forces Using the same example the player would not try to pursue overly ambitious procurement plans first Inst
46. cted strategic system model calculates cost based on how many years during a given turn an offensive defensive system was in place for a given player field on the Systems Edit screen that indicates the cost in U S dollars per year for procurement of a selected strategic system model calculates the cost of systems built or added during a turn field on the Systems Edit screen that indicates the cost in U S dollars per year for research and development of a selected strategic system model assumes a player will spend R amp D money on systems until they become available some time in the future percent of an attack that an interceptor type can intercept field on the Systems Edit screen that indicates the number of deception devices i e decoys that are fitted to a warhead for a particular strategic system function that allows the user to establish thresholds and parameters for a player in a scenario thresholds are information on a player s goals preferences and capabilities as well as costs and doctrines 56 SPARTA Inc CRUISEMISSILE DAMAGE REQUIREMENT DEFEND SOF DEFENSES DEFENSIVE FORCES DELETE DELIVERY VEHICLES DELIVERY VEHICLES DESCRIPTION DETONATIONRELIABILITY DISPLAY RAW DATA DOCTRINES EDIT SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 START a missile that is an unmanned self propelled weapon delivery vehicle that sustains flight through the use of aerodyna
47. ctor behavior driven by expected force performance Force performance measures based on the number of warheads and their destructive capability Raw Force Totals Yield Equivalent Megatonnage Counter Military Potential Area Destroyed Negated by Defense Penetrating Defense e Force performance measures combined to produce measures of effectiveness Guaranteed Retaliatory Capability Averted Losses Balance of Power BMD Performance amp Measures of Performance Wya e Force performance measured several ways Total number of effective warheads Raw force totals Total effective force yield Total effective equivalent megatonnage Yield Total effective counter military potential e Yield Accuracy Number of Standard Urban Areas destroyed e Yield x 58 200 e 1 EMT generates a 2 3 psi shock wave over the equivalent area of 58 sq km e 200 sq km defines a Standard Urban Area equivalent to New York metropolitan area Warheads negated Warheads penetrating defense e All performance measures based on number of warheads 74 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 D Measures of Effectiveness RA Guaranteed Retaliatory Capability Effective capability of those forces surviving a 1st strike Measured against total forces or those available for non SOF targets Key measure of deterrence and stability Averted Losses The difference between striking first and waiting t
48. ds if you wish to Implement Offensive ACR Constraints and or Implement ABM Constraints The final set of fields on the CRITERIA screen asks you to specify a doctrine vis a vis a player s competitors These fields contain a set of New Edit or Delete buttons by which you can create or modify a player s Doctrine Employment preferences To adjust those doctrinal preferences first identify which competitor you are referring to by selecting the circle to the immediate right of the field Then use the drop down box to scroll through various doctrine options You may choose to create a new Doctrine Employment strategy modify an existing one or delete one from the record If you select New or Edit another screen will appear entitled Doctrine Employment This screen contains several fields that allow you to establish a player s DOCTRINE Once you have made the necessary changes to the CRITERIA profile select Save Save As or Cancel See also DOCTRINES DOCTRINES Doctrines Doctrine refers to the policy that guides a player s strategic force behavior In essence doctrine defines a player s strategic goals and how in accordance with those goals the player would expect to use its strategic forces in the event of an exchange In this model doctrine is a sub function of CRITERIA that incorporates value measures force allocations and strategic preferences The DOCTRINES function offers you the opportunity to set the terms
49. e as a Relative Percentage it will continue to adjust according to its adversary s behavior 26 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 more than one measure or principle Measures are not necessarily mutually exclusive During the latter part of the Cold War for example planners were concerned not only with preserving a capacity for Guaranteed Retaliation but also ensuring that re entry vehicles penetrated to their designated targets Therefore SODAC grants you the option of selecting multiple measures to direct a player s strategic behavior The next set of fields covers the characteristics deployment modes and expected utility of a player s strategic forces in the event of a hypothetical strategic exchange The three general categories of Land Based Sea Based and Air Based platforms parallel those of offensive forces Note Land Based platforms are further subdivided into Fixed and Mobile systems Each category of forces has percentage fields for Main Strike Allocation Oper Reserve Strike Force First Strike Readiness Rate Retaliation Alert Rate and overall Launch Posture All of the fields with the exception of Launch Posture require a numerical percentage Launch Posture is a player s preference on when to launch its strategic forces This field asks you whether a player prefers its strategic forces to withstand i e Rideout and then respond to a strategic first strike or not i e O
50. e with percentage of strategic forces that would be operational and available for use in a counterstrike player s preferred strategy on when and how to respond to an offensive strike either OMT or SOF launch posture preference to survive and retaliate to an adversary s first strike button that allows the user to initiate a game field on the Options tab that allows the user to choose interactive or automated operation of the model Re entry Vehicle a warhead s means of transportation often loaded onto a missile or launch vehicle designed to protect the warhead upon entering the earth s atmosphere on approach to target MDA part of space vehicle designed to re enter the Earth s atmosphere at the terminal point of its trajectory see RVs NEGATED re entry vehicles that have been defeated or denied access to their targets often by a player s strategic defenses see RVs PENETRATING re entry vehicles that have defeated or gained access to targets in spite of a player s strategic defenses button used to save a database item under its current name button that allows the user to save to one workbook charts 65 SPARTA Inc SAVE AS SAVE DATA TO EXCEL SAVE NEW FORCE SCENARIOS SEA BASED SECONDARY COMPETITOR SELECT GDP FILE SELECTION BOX SELECTION CIRCLE SHORT SLBM SLBM WARHEADS SNDV SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 showing each measure s chan
51. ead it would immediately begin moderating its procurement program to satisfy the scenario s constraints The main difference between Go straight to maximize and Choice 1 then maximize is that the former assumes that constraints exist and must be met without first testing them the latter might experiment with a more aggressive approach before adopting a more moderate one The final Learn Mode Choice sequence or maximize is a hybrid of the other two While it does not attempt to pursue a player s preferred strategy immediately it does briefly consider whether such an approach is feasible If it is the player will proceed with its preferred strategy If not the model begins to maximize the player s behavior to the extent possible In a sense this Learn Mode is akin to a state using its intelligence apparatus to vet an ambitious procurement plan before it actually implements it Go straight to maximize allows you to seek a strategic equilibrium as quickly as possible Choice 1 then maximize allows you to conduct experiments with bolder player behavior Finally Choice sequence or maximize approximates real conditions by first considering the feasibility of certain behavior before pursuing it Once you have finished making the necessary additions or changes select Save Save As or Cancel 16 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 One possible real world application of the Learn Mode might be Nort
52. eads Yield EMT CMP SUA button on the Posture Edit screen that allows the user to evaluate his her position after the previous move and prior to the next move calculates measures based on what the user identifies at the beginning of the game round quantitative assessment of worth for a given set of data field that assigns numerical values to selected measures to denote amount or relative worth either Rel or Absolute section of the delivery vehicle containing the weapons payload also the number of warheads present for weapons system type START a unit of account used for counting toward the 6000 maximum aggregate limit and relevant sublimits as applied to deployed ICBMs deployed SLBMs and deployed heavy bombers MDA A weapon usually thermonuclear contained in the payload of a missile in terms of the model a strategic system designed to inflict damage or injury on an adversary by either drawing down the adversary s own weapons or counting towards the standard urban area SUA metric Weapon Penetration Factor the probability that a strategic weapon will penetrate an adversary s defenses the number of strategic systems designed to inflict damage or injury on an adversary see WEAPON the type of strategic weapon equipping an offensive air based platform Warhead see WARHEADS Warheads per Strategic Nuclear Delivery Vehicle field that displays the number of warheads carr
53. elected in a window from the model Most fields contain a list box that you can manipulate to select stored data items For example almost all of the major screens contain the Turn field with list box The purpose of the Turn field is to allow you to see how the current category OFFENSES ALLIANCES etc has changed if at all from turn to turn While the length of game iterations i e turns are adjustable one iteration typically represents a year in the model scenario If you wish to exit the model select the Exit button on the Master screen and close the relevant programs Performance SODAC is an integrated model comprised of discrete modular elements each of which can be independently manipulated These elements or functions build on one another to create a model scenario The model s structure makes it extremely flexible It is capable of numerous operations yet it is also easy to adjust and modify so as to suit your individual needs It is anticipated that you will use SODAC for a variety of strategic analyses e trilateral balance of power e g U S Russia China e regional strategic balancing e g India Pakistan China e impact of rogue regimes on strategic interaction e g U S China North Korea e Etc You may also use SODAC to examine the same strategic scenario under different or alternate conditions e U S China Russia governed by cooperative arms control regimes e U S China Russia engaged in an
54. ensive Weapons in Strike Weapons engaged Probability of kill Firing Doctrine Interceptors Available Decoys in Strike Weapons Engaged Based on number of interceptors available strike size number of credible decoys accompanying strike Firing Doctrine Based on number of interceptors expected raid size Decoys in Strike Based on system characteristic of credible decoys per warhead amp Assumptions amp Limitations Druin Perception Planning done with perfect knowledge of offensive and defensive capabilities Targets Targets limited to 2 categories Strategic Offensive Forces silos sub bases main airbases e Other bunkers dispersal fields military bases c2 nodes war supporting industries urban areas Alert non silo based forces not targetable Targets geographic distribution not considered Each target affected independently Offensive Force Targeting Non optimized Starts with softest targets weapons allocated in order of appearance in database Offense Performance Damage model based on overpressure only Defense Performance Strikes uniformly distributed Credible decoys uniformly distributed Firing Doctrine derived with perfect knowledge of raid size 79
55. ented with a Chart options for Turn screen It is accompanied by a ChartData spreadsheet that may be navigated by the directional buttons displayed on the Chart options screen Note The ChartData spreadsheet is primarily for the model itself and is not intended as a tool for the user or player to intervene or modify data The Chart options screen however is a tool for analyzing the results of play between turns You may use the buttons and options on this screen to review strategic forces data and construct charts for the simulation you are running 36 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Chart options for Turn 1 x Resize Form Raw Data M warheads BLUE Display Raw Data I Interceptors BLUE p Platforms BLUE ha Save All Charts Charts Check Uncertainty Warheads Continue to Next Turn Interceptors Exit Run Cost oem ba GRetal Total m warheads ALoss Total warheads EffBal Prewar Watheads R sNeg PostBLUE1stMai Warheads RYsPen PostBLUE 1stMai warheads xI ie O US Oa U O Uncertain ariable None BLUE 10 10 In the upper left hand corner of the screen is a Resize Form button that allows you to adjust how the screen is displayed The rest of the screen is organized by function Below the Resize Form button on the left side of the screen are two sections of fields Raw Data and Charts
56. etermine whether to chart the pre war Prewar or inter conflict post strike balance Post Player 1stMainStrike e g PostRED1stMainStrike Next you will specify the unit of balance you would like to chart e g Warheads Yield EMP CMP SUA e The RVsNeg measure addresses how many of your adversary s re entry vehicles would be negated or defeated by your move RVsNeg automatically assumes a conflict setting Therefore you will first specify what player struck first e g PostBLUE1stMainStrike and then what unit you wish to analyze Warheads Yield EMP CMP SUA e Similarly the RVsPen measure assesses how many re entry vehicles effectively penetrated established defenses Like the RVsNeg measure RVsPen assumes a conflict setting Specify the chronology i e which player struck first PostBLUE1stMainStrike and identify the unit of measure Warheads Yield EMP CMP SUA 38 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Warheads in Arsenal wn a w Q pe Gy Turn Number B You may also choose to factor in a degree of uncertainty into your model run Moving to the bottom of the screen select the list box entitled Uncertain Variable e g Damage Requirement Identify what player this uncertainty applies to in the adjacent list box In the la
57. ges for each player over the course of a run button used to save a database item under a new name field on the Options tab that allows the user to record performance data from a game to an Excel spreadsheet for further review button on the Offensive or Defensive Edit screens that allows the user to save modifications made to Offensive or Defensive forces during the course of a game function that allows the user to construct a story i e game containing accumulated data and profiles for all of the other functions primary interface between the user and model that allows the user to both design and run a game strategic offensive forces launched from ships e g SLBM player identified as the second most important competitor by the user button on the Criteria function that allows the user to access an external database for a player s GDP information box that indicates which field or function has been activated often adjacent to another field circle that indicates which field or function has been activated often adjacent to another field less than 1000 km range of player relationship and corresponding strategic systems Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile sea based strategic offensive system START a ballistic missile with a range in excess of 600 kilometers of a type any one of which has been contained in or launched from a submarine warheads deployed on Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles
58. ght consider The other part of the SCENARIO function is the actual operation of the game Returning to the Master screen you will select the SCENARIO button once again The Scenario window will appear along with the series of buttons previously described To initiate a game highlight a scenario in the window and select the Run button If you have created or edited a new scenario and saved it you may choose to run that scenario Selecting Run will initiate the game and allow you to interact with the model based on the parameters built into the selected scenario Note Operation of the game will be discussed further in the next section Other options for operating the model include Report and Replay Once you have stored and run a particular scenario you may wish to gather information for further analysis The Report button will generate a detailed account of the game including major measures of performance This report which assembles Microsoft Excel data into a normal Word document will be automatically saved to your default file This report which assembles scenario data into a normal tab delimited text file will be automatically saved to a default file which will be called Scenario_Name report The other option under SCENARIO is to Replay the game This button enables you to display charts showing how each of the measures varied for each player during the course of the run For additional information consult the section o
59. greater than 4350 kilograms an intercontinental ballistic missile of a type any one of which has a launch weight greater than 106 000 kilograms or a throw weight greater than 4350 kilograms field on the ACRs function that specifies how many Super Heavy ICBMs are allowed under a particular treaty warheads deployed on a Super Heavy ICBM field on the ACRs function that specifies how many Super Heavy ICBM Warheads are allowed under a particular treaty The definition for Super Heavy ICBM is interchangeable with the START I Treaty s definition for heavy ICBM defined as an ICBM of a type any one of which has a launch weight greater than 106 000 kilograms or a throw weight greater than 4350 kilograms 67 SPARTA Inc SYSTEMS SYSTEMNAME SYS TYPE TERMINAL TERMINAL INTERCEPTORS TERTIARY COMPETITOR THRESHOLD VALUE TOTAL TOTAL INTERCEPTORS TREATY TURN TURN DURATION UNCERTAIN VARIABLE SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 function that allows the user to shape the strategic platforms and forces supporting a player s offensive and defensive missions systems are organizations of equipment personnel and or resources integrated to perform a specific mission field on the System Edit screen that indicates to the user the name of a selected weapons system type of weapons system selected MDA final portion of a ballistic missile s trajectory between the midcourse
60. h Korea s continuing policy of brinksmanship The ambiguity of North Korea s current nuclear status makes it difficult to model exactly on SODAC However consider a scenario set 5 years in the future in which North Korea has become an undeclared nuclear power albeit a weak one North Korea may still prefer to treat its nuclear arsenal as a bargaining chip against the declared nuclear powers The question is how would the declared nuclear powers especially China Russia and the U S respond to North Korean nuclear behavior And how would North Korea adjust its forces to respond in kind You can use SODAC to simulate a similar North Korean scenario First you program one of the players with a profile similar to that of North Korea s and with preferences that reflect a weak but aggressive posture You then select a Learn Mode that reflects North Korea s penchant for leveraging its nuclear power to seek concessions e g Choice 1 then maximize This Learn Mode will instruct the model to pursue North Korea s interests first before resorting to maximization under the constraints roughly mimicking North Korea s strategy of pushing as hard as it can before backing down You may compare the North Korean Learn Mode with those of the declared nuclear powers who are less prone to bold strategic behavior e g Go straight to maximize or Choice sequence or maximize or to alternate Learn Mode strategies that North Korea mi
61. i Initial GDP g Trillion X Norm Max GDP 45 GDP Profile Rise 3 X Abs Max GDP 10 GDP File C DTRA BLUE gdp txt Select GDP file Max Mil Exp Strategic Forces 30 o Boost Phase Midcourse Terminal a e co Min Warheads Land Based Sea Based Air Based oft 3 13 13 Preference1 Preference2 Preference3 V Implement Offensive ACR constraints Cooperativist Defense Minimalist z V Implement ABM constraints r Doctrine vs Primary Competitor Doct_1 e Secondary Competitor Doct_12 ais Tertiary Competitor Doct_13 ais Turn New Edit Delete New EA Deets 0 Save Save As Economic characteristics help determine what moves e g force structure acquisitions are financially feasible for a player The Initial GDP field allows you to specify a gross domestic product at the start of the game The GDP Profile field contains pre set trends for GDP growth or decline over the course of the game Alternatively you may incorporate a GDP File that you have created and stored for a player by accessing Select GDP File To opt between GDP Profile and GDP File mark one of the selection circles adjacent to these fields The three remaining economic fields allow you to establish maximum military expenditures under different circumstances Norm Max GDP lets you stipulate what percentage of a player s GDP should be allocated for defense under normal i e non threatening circumstances The
62. ied by a missile or bomber field on the Systems Edit screen that indicates what year 69 SPARTA Inc YEAR AVAILABLE GREEN YEAR AVAILABLE ORANGE YEAR AVAILABLE PURPLE YEAR AVAILABLE RED YEAR OUT OF PRODUCTION YEAR OUT OF SERVICE YIELD YIELD MEGATONS SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 in the model scenario the BLUE player may acquire a particular strategic system field on the Systems Edit screen that indicates what year in the model scenario the GREEN player may acquire a particular strategic system field on the Systems Edit screen that indicates what year in the model scenario the ORANGE player may acquire a particular strategic system field on the Systems Edit screen that indicates what year in the model scenario the PURPLE player may acquire a particular strategic system field on the Systems Edit screen that indicates what year in the model scenario the RED player may acquire a particular strategic system field on the Systems Edit screen that indicates what year in the model scenario a particular strategic system will no longer be manufactured field on the Systems Edit screen that indicates what year in the model scenario a particular strategic system will be de activated and withdrawn from the arsenal measure of nuclear warhead s explosive power in megatons MDA The total effective energy released in a nuclear or atomic explos
63. information from the additional turns e g Turns 5 9 as well as the original ones e g Turns 0 4 At no point are the original model files changed For configuration control the SODAC Model prohibits you from incorporating run scenario data into a non run scenario In other words you cannot insert a profile from the scenario you have just run into a scenario that you have yet to run This configuration control was added to prevent unnecessary confusion and avoid technical complications As evidenced by this description the SODAC Model is capable and flexible enough to accommodate most applications 13 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 IV SPECIFIC FUNCTIONS Despite its adaptability and sophistication the SODAC Model can be quite straightforward to use Model operation essentially revolves around the set of buttons displayed on the Master screen To make efficient use of the model you must first familiarize yourself with its basic functions SCENARIO SCENARIO is a story i e simulation that contains the accumulated data and profiles for all of the other functions It is comprised of the ACRs Arms Control Regimes ALLIANCES and POSTURES functions with POSTURES containing additional functional sub elements Put another way a SODAC scenario is a strategic story built around the combination of arms control regime alliance arrangement and player posture information which is itself determined by
64. ing information to reflect new developments or adding missing information to make the database more complete For instance you might SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 change the database to represent a particular type of player or position that is not adequately represented by the existing data The primary method for making changes to the database is to modify it through Access prior to running a simulation and then to save the revised database under a new name Be advised that changes made to the database through the model itself will permanently alter the database not just for a particular scenario For example if you are editing Offense_1 and change the number of warheads this change will take effect for all scenarios that include Offense_1 As a precaution you may wish to save the default database in its pristine form That way if you need to start fresh you can always obtain the default database again either by copying it from the original CD or retrieving an already saved copy You also have the option of building and loading an entirely new database for use in your model The model currently comes equipped with a default database on which you may exercise most applications However if you wish to examine a scenario by incorporating entirely new data not contained in the default database e g a country profile for India or Pakistan you may design your own in Access and then instruct the model to reference
65. ing may prove problematic perhaps because of the Operating System On a Windows 98 machine the process of switching to another application can cause a Microsoft Automation Error in some cases whereas in other cases the program continues to run unaffected On a Windows 2000 machine switching to another application may cause the program to pause until the user clicks on the Excel icon again Therefore caution should be used in such cases since the result can be unpredictable If an Automation Error occurs the user will need to close out of Excel completely and then restart the model Database Complications The database can become fairly large on the order of tens of Megabytes as more and more scenario run results accumulate in it As the database becomes populated and gets to be 10 MBytes plus data retrieval will slow down perceptibly for actions such as deletion of items generation of reports and replay of results Therefore the user might occasionally need to archive databases and start with a clean database that contains no run results before running more cases Even deleting old scenario results does not necessarily reduce the size of the database file One way to reduce the size of the database file is to open the file in Microsoft Access then go to the menu and click on Tools Database Utilities Compact and Repair Database This should probably be done on a semi regular basis to keep the database file size under control 71 S
66. ion measure of nuclear warhead s explosive power in millions of tons of TNT see YIELD field on the Chart options screen that allows the user to check the uncertainty of a variable by entering a number that will adjust the current value for the given variable by a positive percentage in order to determine what effect this positive change has on the measure results field on the Chart options screen that allows the user to check the uncertainty of a variable by entering a number that will adjust the current value for the given variable by a negative percentage in order to determine what effect this negative change has on the measure results 70 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 SNDV number of Strategic Nuclear Delivery Vehicles WEAPONS number of weapons WH number of warheads B Troubleshooting Errors and Bugs If you encounter an error or bug during operation of the model first back out of the model and start again e Close unnecessary applications to minimize potential sources for errors e Replicate operation to confirm the error is legitimate e Test associated operations to see if they cause a similar error Applications and Software The model is compatible with Microsoft Office 2000 Earlier versions of Office utilize different Access database formats that most likely will be incompatible with the model database Switching to other applications while the program is runn
67. ir own set of New Edit and Delete buttons Fields may also be manipulated by their list boxes 14 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Scenario Edit for Escalation_ONA051102 xj Blue Posture Posture_1 7 Save N Edit Delet nen 7 sett Save As Green Posture M rw o d New Edit Delete Orange Posture Start Year ee eee 2003 wm Jew Edit Delete Turn Duration 5 Y Purple Posture E z Learn Mode Go straight to maxin Edit Delete Red Posture Turn M Posture_5 o z 0 v Alliances Alliance_2 x New Edit Delete Arms Control Regime staRTzaem o Escalation_ONA051102 China and the U S are engaged in an increasingly confrontational relationship trendina towards strateaic competition Russia remains a maior nuclear power but Description The Posture fields allow you to a specify what players are active in the scenario and b define the postures adopted by each player The BLUE player is the default player for the user To specify which other players are active in the scenario mark the selection boxes to the left of those players Posture fields In the graphic above the user has selected GREEN and RED The Alliances field lets you choose a pattern of alliances reflecting the relationships between selected players You may also specify whether treaties and if so which ones govern strategic decisions by defining the Arms Control Regime
68. is not designed for theater or tactical scenarios per se However you may modify the model to adapt it to certain tactical situations by adjusting data values and preferences e g range A weapons exchange model estimates how the players would interact It is assumed that each player will attempt to secure its own interests generally understood as safety or a security comfort level of deterrence vis a vis the potential threat from other players The SODAC Model contains a model optimizer that attempts to maximize a player s stated strategic goals and preferences by analyzing the data and recommending the most appropriate course of action given the constraints built into the system The exchange model is applicable between competitors In other words SODAC models competitor or adversary behavior not competition between allies Players engaged in some form of alliance are not thought to engage in any form of strategic exchange with each other Their combined efforts may however be directed against a competitor or group of competitors You may instruct the computer on how thoroughly it should attempt to optimize and evaluate player choices However such modifications may come at the expense of run time The logical foundation for strategic decision making rests in player choice Each player possesses a set of decision rules and is confronted with a set of exogenous factors e g force postures player preferences etc The virtua
69. isfy its security requirement Players will seek a course of action that satisfies their security requirements i e acceptable choices in a way that is most consistent with their behavioral preferences The optimal end state is stability an environment that occurs if all actors possess net offensive capabilities consistent with their deterrence doctrines and simultaneously choose the option of no further action Of course sub optimal end states are also possible in the SODAC Model gt As stipulated in the original DTRA task the model is intended to simulate strategic i e national level ability to wage nuclear war not tactical i e theater or battlefield capacity for nuclear exchange behavior Optimization is explained further in Appendix C1 10 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 SODAC simulates players linear decision making process on strategic issues You establish the player s type posture and preferences through the model functions and the model estimates how that player would react under the defined conditions Each decision or action influences successive behavior For example the U S recently released its 2002 Nuclear Posture Review NPR Under the terms of the NPR the U S will store downloaded strategic warheads in an operational reserve for contingency purposes You are curious as to how that decision might influence Russian and Chinese nuclear behavior Will Russia and China react in the
70. l begin processing the data and running the exchange model on its own until the completion of the game i e the designated number of turns Under the Automated mode you cannot actively participate in or modify a player s decision making process during the course of the game However the computer will present the results for further analysis after it has completed its run Operating the Model Automated Mode Operating the Model Interactive Mode Select Automated mode 1 Select Interactive mode Specify model functions and create 2 Specify model functions and create game scenario game scenario Select Run on the Scenario screen Select Run on the Scenario screen Model will cycle through all turns and Accept or reject strategic generate results on completion of run recommendations made by computer Analyze results generated at end of run Analyze strategic data between turns Analyze results generated at end of run Because using the model interactively is somewhat more involved this manual will focus on running a simulation when the Run Mode is Interactive Make sure you are on the Master screen with all of the major function buttons displayed Select the SCENARIOS button to begin 1 Initiating a Game Highlight a simulation from the SCENARIOS window and select Run The exchange model will begin loading the necessary data and preparing the game A running message is displayed on the
71. l outcomes of players decisions which signify the conclusion of the model round represent the preconditions for subsequent rounds of interaction A player reaches a decision by going through a series of steps perception of the threat determination of possible courses of action application of decision criteria to evaluate these courses of action and selection of a preferred action Many of these factors are programmed into a player s strategic profile The outcome arising from the policy adopted by the actor as well as simultaneous choices by the other game players constitutes the end of a turn At the beginning of each turn a player possesses objective knowledge of the other players existing strategic offensive and defensive forces as well as their prior strategic behavior Each player also possesses a declining order of preference for the types of actions favored by the other players in the scenario When constraints prevent a player from acting within its normal preferences it will resort to alternatives in a fashion that deviates as little as possible from the usual parameters of its strategic personality The model simulates the decision making process for each player using the criteria stated above Players will analyze all feasible options before choosing an action This analysis consists of two parts First the player identifies which options are consistent with its preferences Second the player assesses which options will sat
72. l run The selection boxes include a series of measures labeled Warheads Interceptors Cost GRetal ALoss EffBal RVsNeg and RVsPen e If you select Warheads or Interceptors you have the option of creating a chart displaying the numbers of Warheads or Interceptors for each of the turns and all of the players e If you wish to analyze the cost record during the game select Cost and use the list box to specify whether you wish to create a chart for Research amp Development R amp D Operations amp Maintenance O amp M or unit Production The rest of the Charts measures have two fields each e If you select GRetal you can analyze the level of guaranteed retaliation that would be achieved as a result of your turn First choose whether to chart Total retaliatory forces or non strategic offensive forces NonSOF You will then specify what unit of retaliation you wish to chart e g Warheads Yield EMP CMP SUA e Alternatively you may wish to examine the losses averted by your decision When you select ALoss Averted Loss you will again need to specify whether to chart Total or NonSOF You will then identify the unit of loss you want to chart e g Warheads Yield EMP CMP SUA e Another option is to evaluate the effective balance between players Effective Balance EffBal is somewhat different from the other measures You will first d
73. lp prevent the optimizer from greatly overshooting the original threshold value for this measure 12 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Analysis of run performance has demonstrated that when measure constraint s are too high or too low in the case of RVs Penetrating the optimizer will tend to spin wheels That is attempting to minimize cost while meeting the measure constraints in these cases can often result in failure Therefore the model would for many turns possibly make 2 attempts while minimizing cost before making the third attempt in which it maximized the primary measure The model now allows for several learning modes If none is selected the model will run in its original manner that is to go through the entire choice sequence every turn If Choice 1 then maximize is selected the model will attempt the first part of the choice sequence say minimize cost while modifying offensive platforms and if this attempt fails the model will maximize the primary measure If Maximize measure is selected as the name suggests the model will skip straight to maximizing the primary measure If Choice sequence or maximize is selected the model does a quick check to help decide whether the optimizer will go through the choice sequence or go straight to maximizing the primary measure This quick check does the following without utilizing Solver a Maximize each variable That is set each variable cell t
74. lso TREATY AFFIL Affiliation determines what offensive or defensive systems are available to each player can be BLUE GREEN RED ORANGE and PURPLE AIR BASED strategic offensive forces launched from aircraft e g ALCM AIR BREATHER WARHEADS warheads delivered by a missile or airplane with an engine requiring the intake of air for combustion of its fuel as in a ramjet or turbojet ALCM Air Launched Cruise Missile air based strategic offensive System launched from long range bombers START an Where applicable this glossary has accepted the definition of terms put forth in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty START Where a distinct definition has been necessary for model purposes the glossary has cited the START definition for additional reference See the START Treaty Annex http www defenselink mil acq acic treaties startl annexes start_da htm 53 SPARTA Inc ALLIANCES ALOSS AVERTED LOSSES BALLISTIC BALLISTIC MISSILES BALLISTIC MISSILE WARHEADS BASES BASING BATCH BOMB SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 air to surface cruise missile of a type any one of which has been flight tested from an aircraft or deployed on a bomber after December 31 1986 function that allows the user to stipulate the nature of interaction between players alliance is a formal agreement for cooperation and coordination of strategic effort either Firm Alliance or Potential Ally
75. marily concerned with comparing major policy alternatives so he does not feel it necessary to evaluate or adjust specific details of the players postures He is already somewhat familiar with the model and the profiles The analyst wants to change some values for BLUE s offensive forces profile Selecting Edit serves two purposes then 1 it re familiarizes the analyst with the posture he is editing and 2 it allows him to make minor adjustments The Edit button will call up a Posture Edit screen with fields for CRITERIA Offensive Forces OFFENSES and Defensive Forces DEFENSES Each established scenario is comprised of programmed elements including ACR ALLIANCES POSTURES CRITERIA DOCTRINES OFFENSES and DEFENSES Likewise these programmed elements display programmed values or profiles In this case the Criteria field indicates that Posture_1 incorporates Criteria_1 The analyst selects the Edit button below the Criteria field examines the values for Criteria_1 determines them to be acceptable and decides to make no changes he selects Cancel to return to the Posture Edit screen He does the same with the Defensive Forces field The analyst then comes back to the Offensive Forces field choosing to retain the OFFENSE_1 posture for BLUE He selects Edit bringing up an Offensive Edit screen He wants to assign a more robust offensive force to BLUE by having BLUE deploy a Sea Based offensive s
76. may use the list box to select the basing method you prefer for that system For the rest of the fields you may enter numerical data directly Note Fields that do not apply will be obscured and inaccessible Systems that will never reasonably be available to a player will default to 99999 In addition to the above fields there is a column of selection boxes on the right side of the screen These selection boxes capture attributes of the strategic system you are editing They include DeliveryVehicles Ballistic MIRVedBM ICBM MIRVedICBM SuperHeavy MobileICBM SLBM MIRVedSLBM CruiseMissile Bomb ABM BoostPhase Midcourse and Terminal You may select all the boxes i e attributes that apply to that particular system Note If the selected system is offensive the latter three selection boxes which pertain to defensive systems will not be accessible Once you have made all necessary adjustments to the SYSTEMS profile select Save or Cancel 33 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 V OPERATING THE MODEL Once you have familiarized yourself with and adjusted the model s specific functions you are ready to run a simulation As previously mentioned there are two run modes built into the model Interactive and Automated To run the model automatically simply select Automated in the Run Mode window on the Options tab select the appropriate scenario and press Run The computer wil
77. mic lift over most of its flight path the required probability of destruction the of damage a player needs to inflict on its adversary during an exchange field that allows the user to decide whether to deploy a player s defenses against an adversary s inbound weapons aimed at SOF targets function that allows the user to select systems used by a player to guard against strategic offensive actions by an adversary see DEFENSES button that allows the user to purge items from the model database see DELIVERY VEHICLES systems for transporting and deploying nuclear weapons against targets typically bombers long range ballistic missiles and ALCMs field that provides further details about a scenario probability that weapon will detonate over its target button on the Chart options screen that allows the user to create a spreadsheet of data values for a selected measure and player a player s strategic goals and how in accordance with those goals the player would expect to use its strategic forces in the event of an exchange function that allows the user to specify a player s strategic force behavior incorporates threat values force allocations and strategic preferences MDA Fundamental principles by which the military forces or elements thereof guide their actions in support of national objectives button that allows the user to modify aspects of the model 57 SPARTA Inc EFFBAL
78. ms ea If you wish to edit the number of platforms for systems currently deployed in a window highlight the system and select the Edit button A window will appear identifying the system and allowing you to change the number of Platforms deployed for that system Once you have made those changes either confirm them with the Okay button or discard abandon them with Cancel 29 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Once you have made all your changes be sure to save the revised data by selecting the Save or Save As buttons DEFENSES Defenses Defenses are the interceptor systems used by a state to protect against the strategic offensive forces that could be launched by an adversary in the event of a hypothetical attack The DEFENSES function which allows you to manipulate a player s strategic defenses works in the same way as the OFFENSES function First decide whether to create a new Defenses profile edit an existing one or delete a profile Selecting New or Edit will allow you to manipulate the defensive systems at your disposal Defensive Edit for DEFAULT_DEF_1 x Boost Phase Plat Type Sys Type Ints Max Exp New Edit Delete Midcourse Plat Type Sys Type Ints Max Exp WH New Edit Delete Terminal Plat Type Weap Type Ints Max Ex Terminal_Plat Terminal 0 0 Affi New Edit Delete ae BLUE z Save Save As f I DEE A Defensive Edit screen will appear with
79. must save or cancel the inputs you have made under the DOCTRINES function You can manipulate the DOCTRINES function to test real world hypotheses on strategic doctrine For instance China describes itself as a cooperative minimalist nuclear power that ultimately seeks complete disarmament It officially embraces a defensive retaliatory strategic posture and a doctrine of minimum deterrence e g measure of Guaranteed Retaliation that emphasizes a countervalue strike capability However current trends suggest China may be moving in the direction of limited deterrence with a more robust strategic arsenal capable of conducting some counterforce as well as countervalue missions China has also embarked on a massive modernization program to its strategic force the Second Artillery that includes both qualitative e g accuracy reliability perhaps RVs and quantitative improvements You want to simulate this purported shift To do that you access the DOCTRINES function for GREEN select a measure that might reflect such a shift e g RVs Penetrating adjust the basing scheme to increase the Main Strike allocation and allot a greater role for Sea Based offensive forces OFFENSES Offenses Offenses are the strategic systems possessed by a player that could be used to attack or inflict damage on an adversary The OFFENSES function enables you to manipulate the structure of a player s offensive forces It directs the model
80. n SUPERVISING PROJECT OFFICER Please refer all questions concerning the effort to the project officer Mr David Hamon Advanced Systems amp Concepts Office DTRA 703 767 5709 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 STRATEGIC OFFENSE DEFENSE AND ARMS CONTROL SODAC MODEL USER S MANUAL TABLE OF CONTENTS I Bar a UU io caceicee ccediasctcp si ccenies nats sceeetncdeninuasdeds capudcegancacdsusedandocueancateueoedennsnactineceneuoueuancennssace 3 M Getting Started isis cescsscssscenssecxcessua si vasees xamasiocasessensacosessscneav ea casasesestsandesivenseonnsnenene aes 4 T General Characteristics sscscictsscisoscdeacsossnssscosesscocactdsessossscessoesdenscenscessousedessdscaassesenecicsseasesoses 5 IV Specific Functions issssessiscssessssisossssosssesso isoesaestsessusiverssisistessu seee sss stono kisto o rosi tos iiss resv sses 14 V Operating the Models s sssissssssssssresssusosessessorsssscssasosiossseossseresssiserost or asesores o rcsos isss v teest ss 34 VI Practical Exampl issossssisssssssssvosssessses ossssosssssssosssssosesscssssesiosssos esssdosssssssssdss ssis ssesssssi 41 VII Potential Applications ecssecsseessccesoccsosecooesssoosocoscoseccosecoocsocossececosesosecssecsososcosscsssesseessse 52 VII Appendices ssssssisissssssssiscossstessorssssssoossissucoss s sseoastvsosssissoess besiess risseoa ieies sises s sssrss sso 53 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001
81. n Analyzing Measures See also POSTURES ALLIANCES and ACRS 17 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 ACRs Arms Control Regimes ACRs For the purposes of this model treaties or arms control regimes ACRs promote cooperation between competitors by way of adjusting players force structures Treaties put limitations on strategic systems compelling players to reduce or modify their forces to adhere to the terms of the agreement The treaties stored in the database follow the provisions of and reflect the force structures stipulated in the actual strategic arms agreements that were negotiated by the U S and the Soviet Union and or its successor states You may choose to modify these provisions for any given player or apply them to a player that was not historically subject to those provisions To access this function of the model select the ACRS button and then decide whether to create a new arms control regime or modify an existing one The model will consult the database to establish the terms of the designated ACR If you select New or Edit an ACR Edit screen will appear containing numerous categories of fields ACR Edit for START1 ABM xj Blue Green Or Purple Red Delivery Vehicles 1600 1600 99999 99999 99999 Warheads 6000 6000 99999 99999 99999 ICBMs 1600 ICBM Warheads 4900 1600 99999 99999 99999 4900 99999 99999 99999 Super Heavy ICBMs _ a ka 54 99999 99999 99999 S
82. nce GREEN and RED as well as how they would respond in strategic terms The analyst plans to test how GREEN and RED will react to a modest deployment of missile defenses by BLUE He selects the Edit button under the Defensive Forces field on the Posture Edit screen highlights the Midcourse platform selects Edit 48 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 again on the Defensive Edit screen and changes the number of platforms from 0 to 10 He then selects Save New Force and returns to the Posture Edit screen where he selects Continue Suggested Response Accept changes xj Yes No _ Posture Edit for Posture_1_111920021120048M i x Defensive Edit for DEFAULT_DEF_1_11192002112004AM xj Boost Phase Max Ex Before proceeding further the model briefs the analyst with the following message Microsoft Excel xi Percentage of air warheads 1 44404332129964E 02 is less than minimum air warheads 0 13 Percentage of terminal phase interceptors 0 is less than minimum terminal phase interceptors 1 Total number of MIRVed ICBMs 300 exceeds treaty limit of 0 One or more measure thresholds has not been met This message informs the analyst that he is deviating from his designated thresholds and preferences He selects the Ok button to confirm that he is aware of this deviation and proceeds to the Chart options for Turn 3 screen Once he arrives he examines the same measures he has consi
83. ntage of strategic forces tasked with executing main strike interface that greets the user and allows for operation of the Model see MAX EXPEND RAID see MAX EXPEND RAID Maximum Expenditure per Raid maximum rate at which interceptors are expended in defending against incoming offensive missiles allows the user to retain interceptors for defense in future attacks type of player that assumes that its competitors will coordinate against it thresholds and constraints for this player must be met against a combined team consisting of all opponents field that establishes the maximum percentage of the defense budget allocated for strategic forces strategic principles that guide players doctrine and instruct the model as to how to use players strategic forces to achieve their goals apply thresholds that drive model decisions on offensive and defensive force adjustments between 1000 and 3000 km range of player relationship and corresponding strategic systems MDA portion of a ballistic missile s trajectory between the boost phase and the reentry phase when reentry vehicles and penaids travel at ballistic trajectories above the 60 SPARTA Inc MIDCOUSRE INTERCEPTORS MINIMALIST MIN INTERCEPTORS of total MIN WARHEADS of total MIRV MIRVed BALLISTIC MISSILES MIRVedBM MIRVedCM MIRVedICBM MIRVed ICBMs MIRVedSLBM MIRVed SLBMs MOBILE SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 000
84. ntensity arms race with minor weapons procurements deployments Emboldened by its prodigious economic growth China has undertaken a massive modernization effort and a more moderate but still significant armament program China is increasingly frustrated with American interventionism particularly in the Taiwan Strait America s evolving nuclear strategy and ambitious missile defense program further add to China s resentment prompting China to challenge American strategic dominance Russia in a strategically powerful but relatively weak position takes a more neutral course pursuing arms reduction Russia s ambiguous position encourages both the U S and China to view it as a potential ally Part of the analyst s experiment is to assume that the nuclear powers are embarking on a more conflictual path In this hypothetical scenario mistrust has built to the point that arms control has been replaced by arms race The analyst plans to examine what would happen under moderate to extreme circumstances involving greater levels of confrontation and strategic competition Rather than inputting all original data himself the analyst decides to create a new scenario by modifying some of the existing sub elements He may choose to design the game top down by working through the SCENARIO button or bottom up adjusting the profile elements and then integrating them into a scenario he has created For the sake of expediency he chooses to w
85. o be struck Measured in terms of enemy capability to inflict damage on friendly side Total damage or damage against non SOF targets Key measure of crisis stability Balance Measures equivalence of forces e Total forces or those available for non SOF targets Provides insights into perceptions of advantage Basic stability measure BMD Performance Minimalist measure RVs negated for example 20 Maximalist measure RVs penetrating for example 0 D Underlying Model Structure Gala we poA Pi a Pa W Effective Weapons W Weapons available P Probability of Survival against Enemy strike P Probability of Launch Pp Probability of Penetration against Enemy defenses Pq Probability of Detonation 75 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Guaranteed Retaliatory FA Capability R Wie Pp E W X Psr X Pi X Ppr X Pa Main Strike Reserve Strike R Guaranteed retaliatory capability W Weapons available for retaliatory strike Py Probability of Surviving Enemy 1st strike P Probability of Launch Ppr Probability of Penetration for Retaliatory strike Pq Probability of Detonation w Weapons available reserve strike P Probability of Surviving Enemy Reserve strike Ppr Probability of Penetration for Reserve strike Averted Losses i Wp X Pi X Ppp X Pa Wy X Por X Pi X Por X Pad Enemy 1st Strike Enemy Retaliatory Strike l w a m Pir Ppr Par W
86. o the constraint value associated with that variable For example if there are 50 platforms of System X at the beginning of the turn and the constraint on this system is 100 then set that cell value to 100 For systems just becoming available this turn it works similarly except that the initial value would be zero instead of 50 etc b Loop though each of the measure constraints and see if they all have been met now that the system variables have been maximized c If any one of the measure constraints is not met such as Number of Guaranteed Retaliation Warheads only reaching 900 not its threshold of 1000 then the model will not waste time going through the choice sequence and will simply maximize the measure through the optimizer However if all measure constraints are met after maximizing each system variable then go through the choice sequence since there s a reasonable chance that all constraints may be met even when minimizing cost It should be noted that when the optimizer is maximizing a measure it doesn t necessarily have to maximize all the system variables although often this does occur in practice especially in the absence of treaty and triad constraints So the quick check of maximizing the system variables can mimic what the optimizer will do in some cases but not in every case 2 MODEL PERFORMANCE AND MATHEMATICAL FOUNDATION 73 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Model Fundamentals i e A
87. of a player s strategic plans and instruct the computer on how to employ the player s strategic forces The model then factors these plans into the player s strategic behavior informing the optimizer on how to achieve the player s stated goals This capability makes DOCTRINES along with SCENARIO one of the most important model functions To operate this function select the DOCTRINES button from the Master screen and then select either New Edit or Delete You will be presented with a Doctrine Employment Edit screen that contains several fields as well as the Turn list box The Maximalist Minimalist preference holds certain implications for strategic behavior A Maximalist player will often have to build up more forces to balance the combined strength of multiple adversaries The decisions of a Minimalist player on the other hand are driven by the strength of its most powerful adversary However Maximalist Minimalist should not be confused with maximizing a measure Regardless of the player s orientation the model will still attempt to maximize the player s conditions 24 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Doctrine Employment Edit for B_LDOCTRINE_1_1216200231122PM x Measure Value Primary RYs Negated WH Absolute PostRED1stMainStrike 20 a c c c c c c New Main Strike Oper Reserve First Strike Retaliation Launch Allocation Strike Allocation
88. or model purposes OMT refers to Army bases and non strategic Air Force and Naval installations war supporting industries and population centers are not included under a player s First Strike Strategy It is assumed that a state executing a first strike strategy will initially target an enemy s warfighting forces Defend SOF asks you whether or not you wish to defend your strategic offensive forces i e yes or no If you opt to Defend SOF your interceptors will be used proportionally to defend against the entire incoming attack including the protection of your own strategic offensive forces Conversely if you decide not to Defend SOF your interceptors will be used only against the portion of the incoming attack not targeted at your SOF The rationale for not defending SOF may be that you expect to use your SOF in the opening minutes of a nuclear exchange defending assets you have already expended would be a waste of your interceptors On the other hand you may wish to Defend SOF if you intend to rideout a first strike and then retaliate The Defend SOF field preserves this option Note The Defend SOF option does not apply to Boost Phase interceptors Finally the Retaliation Strategy field enables you to decide the manner in which you would respond to an exchange i e 27 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 whether you wish to target SOF or OMT As with the other functions you
89. orces The SYSTEMS function allows you to manipulate the specific characteristics of a strategic system The SYSTEMS button commands the model to open database information on various strategic platforms You will begin by selecting the SYSTEMS button To create a new system select New To modify an existing system highlight the system in the window and select Edit A System Edit screen for the selected system will appear with numerous fields 31 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 zi SystemName B_BoostPhase G1 Yield MegaTons lo o O Delivery ehicles E PlatformName esm CredibleDecoysPerWH fo o Ballistic E MovementType BoostPhase LaunchReliability ooo MIR edBM El ForceType Defensive DetonationReliability wfo ICBM E CostRandD Year socoooo00 Range km ooo MIR edICBM a CostP Year 10000000 Hardness psi i SuperHeavy in CostOandM Year 1000000 WHperSNDY pir MobileICBM fa NumProcuredperYear is SND perPlatform foi SLBM ja Year Available BLUE 2519 PlatperBase o MIRVedSIBM E Year Available GREEN s9999 Accuracy naut miles Don CruiseMissile El Year Available ORANGE s3999 STARTTreatyCnt o O O Bomb ia Year Available PURPLE s9999 Basing mobie Year Available RED 99999 Year Out of Production 2050 Year Out of Service 2100 CarrierPenFactor o i pe z WeaponPenFactor o o O OO EN v overages Midcourse r isio 40 Terminal E Systems are f
90. ork top down At this point he is less concerned with variations in a proposed course of action than he is in comparing the proposed action to other policy alternatives He also opts to run the model interactively so that he may directly participate in the decision making process and test some of his hypotheses A The analyst selects the SCENARIO button on the Master screen and then opts to create a new scenario Pressing the New button he is presented with a window for labeling his new scenario His concept is to create a scenario wherein the strategic posture of all three actors is influenced by the others He labels his scenario Escalation_ONA051102 and confirms it with the Okay button He does not need to access the Options tab since the default Run Mode for SODAC is Interactive 41 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 BysRwNeutO Sir Escalation ON4051102 Escalation_ON4051102_11112002125524PM Escalation_ONA051102_1111200215224PM Escalation_ON4051102_1118200225038PM gl Scenario_1 Scenario_2 Scenario_2_ NoMin_1 r a New Edit Delete Run Report Replay B The model next displays a Scenario Edit screen in which the analyst can manipulate player postures He first defines the BLUE player posture representing the U S Using the list box on the BLUE Posture field the analyst selects Posture_1 and then presses the Edit button Remember the analyst is pri
91. oser to achieving the player s specified goals than the default original profiles You may always change the profiles to restore the original default conditions if you so desire 35 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Posture Edit for B_LPOSTURE_1_1227200232608PM x Offensive Forces Edit Restore Orig Restore Model Update Posture Suggestion Measures Continue The Update Measures button will instruct the model to calculate the measures based on what you had at the beginning of the round and brief them to you You may continue to go back modify the profiles and update the measures until you have satisfied any constraints not being met When you are satisfied with your changes you must confirm the model s briefing by selecting the Ok button Once you have selected Ok the model will bring up a User Response screen and the Changes spreadsheet You may choose to Continue or navigate the Changes spreadsheet with the directional buttons When you select Continue you will be transferred back to the Posture Edit screen and Exchangel spreadsheet From here you will decide whether to continue on or make further changes As before select Continue to move to the next step If you select Yes you are accepting the model s suggested changes and the model will proceed to the next step 3 Analyzing Measures After accepting or rejecting the model s proposed changes you will be pres
92. p BLUE enjoys the largest economy by far He is curious as to whether GREEN or RED can sustain their current strategic trends given their economic situations The analyst marks the selection box next to Cost and uses the list box to choose Operations amp Maintenance O amp M costs He then selects the Generate Chart button which offers graphical Operations amp Maintenance cost projections for all three players from 2003 the game start point through 2007 Note The length of time reflects the Turn Duration designated by the analyst user 5 years The chart illustrates no substantial change in cost over the next several years for any of the players Given the rapid growth of GREEN s economy and RED s unilateral arms reductions the O amp M costs for each player may in fact account for a smaller percentage of their economies than they do now In other words the analyst hypothesizes that GREEN and RED s current strategic 47 SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 trends will actually become more affordable for them in the years to come if current economic trends continue Chart options for Turn 1 x Resize Form Raw Data M Warheads GREEN Display Raw Data a Interceptors BLUE H i l Platforms BLUE Save All Charts Charts _ Check uncertainty _ l Warheads Continue to Next Turn a Interceptors Exit Run Cost ou X l GRetal Total Worheads t LEFT RIGHT Total X Warheads gt l Aloss
93. phase and trajectory termination defense systems designed to intercept hostile missiles late in flight on approach to target player identified as the third most important competitor by the user for a particular measure the value at which behavior changes according to satisfied criteria descriptive category of measure that characterizes the strategic balance between players calculated with all available strategic assets total number of interceptors combined boost phase midcourse and terminal an agreement or institution designed to reduce tension and promote cooperation between competitors by way of reducing strategic forces note a treat does not necessarily signify an alliance see also ACR field that instructs model to display elements that correspond to selected turn number for the current form field that allows the user to stipulate how many units of time given in numbers of years each turn in the game represents can vary from 1 5 years selected variable will be used with the Check Uncertainty function see CHECK UNCERTAINTY 68 SPARTA Inc UNILATERALIST UNITS UPDATE MEASURES VALUE WARHEADS WEAPON WEAPONPENFACTOR WEAPONS WEAP TYPE WH WHPERSNDV YEAR AVAILABLE BLUE SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 player preference that favors individual self interested action over Cooperation standard quantity for a particular strategic measure e g Warh
94. r ICBMs etc each year leading up to the treaty implementation year in order to meet the objectives 5 Measure constraints The threshold values set for Guaranteed retaliation RVs Negated etc tend to increase offensive and or defensive force structure The choice sequences employed force a player to attempt to minimize cost while enacting the five types of constraints and changing the values in the variable cells If the first attempt fails to meet all constraints then a second attempt will be made The only difference between the first and second attempt might be that the first time the model s variables consist of offensive forces only while in the second attempt the model s variables consist of both offense and defense depending on what the player s criteria preferences are If the second attempt were to fail to meet the constraints also then the optimizer will as a final attempt try to maximize one of the measures specifically the primary measure while still enacting all of the constraints except for the measure constraints The exception is that a constraint will be enacted for the primary measure which is to be maximized For example if the primary measure is Number of Guaranteed Retaliation Warheads and its associated original threshold was 1000 warheads then when this measure is maximized a new constraint of 1100 warheads will be enacted for this measure This 10 addition to the threshold is an arbitrary number used simply to he
95. r that if you select Cancel the changes you have made will be lost Posture Edit for B_LPOSTURE_1 x Criteria B_CRITERIA_1 New Edit Delete Offensive Forces B_OFFENSE_1 x New Edit Delete Defensive Forces B_DEFENSE_1 New Edit Delete Turn BLUE 0 Save Save As See also CRITERIA OFFENSES and DEFENSES CRITERIA Criteria The CRITERIA function allows you to establish certain thresholds and parameters for a scenario These thresholds or criteria contain information on a player s strategic goals preferences and capabilities Goals i e criteria are the main strategic or security objectives of the player Preferences are the players selected methods for achieving those goals Capabilities refer to the player s stockpile and its ability to exercise its power e g by building forces All three influence an actor s strategic behavior The model optimizer processes this information and designs behavior intended to meet those basic criteria First you will select either the New or Edit button The next screen to appear Criteria Edit will display several fields by which you may define a player s preferences These fields cover economic characteristics desired force structure and attitudes toward other players The screen also contains the Turn field and list box 22 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Criteria Edit for Criteria_1 x
96. r the turns you completed before you exited the original run in this case turns 1 4 but those changes would essentially have no effect since the starting point for the new run would be where you left off A final word should be said about saving data from scenario runs When a scenario is run to completion all of the information from each of the turns e g Turns 0 4 is saved to the database under the time stamped SCENARIO name e g BENT_TEST_01_122003113619AM Likewise the corresponding profiles that make up that scenario POSTURES CRITERIA etc are saved with the same time stamp e g Posture_1_122003113619AM However the original scenario and its components are NOT overwritten Again when you run a scenario you are essentially creating a new product The purpose of the time stamp is to both denote that a run has taken place and to distinguish the run scenario from the original scenario on which it was based Partially run scenarios and continued scenarios are no different in this regard In the original scenario Turn 0 represents the game s initial conditions In a continued or picked up 12 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 scenario the model recognizes the last turn played and treats it as the starting point for the new run When this subsequent run is completed it is again saved under the time stamped SCENARIO name The only difference is that this subsequent run displays
97. rategic system is offensive or defensive in mission tab delimited text file that contains projected GDP figures for a given player characteristics of a player s gross domestic product pre set trends for GDP growth over the course of the game button on the Chart options screen that allows the user to create a graphical representation of his her decisions with regard to selected measures 58 SPARTA Inc GRETAL GUARANTEEED RETALIATION HARDNESS psi ICBM ICBM WARHEADS INTs INITIAL GDP INTERACTIVE INTERCEPTORS INTERCONTINENTAL INTERMEDIATE LAND BASED LAUNCH POSTURE SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 see GUARANTEED RETALIATION the total strategic capability i e forces guaranteed to survive an initial attack successfully launch successfully penetrate adversary defenses and successfully detonate at its target the total strategic retaliatory capability that can be reasonably expected to survive and respond measure in pounds per square inch of weapons systems survivability the physical ability of a system or its location to withstand the overpressure blast effects of a nuclear first strike Intercontinental Ballistic Missile land based strategic offensive system START a land based ballistic missile with a range in excess of 5500 kilometers warheads deployed on Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles see INTERCEPTORS number of interceptors a player s g
98. rchased and deployed function that allows the user to select systems that could be used to conduct strikes or inflict damage on an adversary see OFFENSES see OKAY button that allows the user to confirm and accept changes made to the model 62 SPARTA Inc O amp M OMT OPER RESERVE STRIKE ALLOCATION OPTIMIZER Pk PLATFORM PLATFORMNAME PLATFORMS PLATPERBASE PLATS SILOS PLAT TYPE POST COLOR FIRST MAIN STRIKE POSTURES POTENTIAL ALLY SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Operations amp Maintenance the cost of maintaining and using strategic forces Other Military Targets first strike preference for targeting adversary s non strategic or supporting military capabilities Operational Reserve Strike Allocation percentage of strategic forces kept in reserve for follow on strike Solver the Microsoft Excel built in optimizer probability that a missile defense intercept will result in a warhead kill type of strategic weapons system system on which a weapon is based field on the System Edit screen that indicates to the user the name of the type of weapons system selected number of weapons system types field on the Systems Edit screen that indicates the number of platforms for a particular strategic system assigned to a given base number of a weapons system type i e ICBM s based in silos type of weapons system platform selected the period after a pla
99. revised SODAC Model are enhancements to model performance including additional measures of merit expanded capabilities refined presentation and improved processing speed SODAC 2 0 is also supported by detailed documentation primarily the SODAC User s Manual and Model Primer SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 II GETTING STARTED The SODAC Model consists of a database of strategic information constructed in Microsoft Access and an exchange model operating off of Microsoft Excel The first step in utilizing the SODAC Model is to load the program 1 Insert the program disk or CD into your computer 2 Click on My Computer 3 Click on either the A drive or your CD 4 You will be asked whether you want to open the application or save to disk Select Save 5 Save to either the C drive or your personal drive This will allow the application to run more quickly than running it from the program disk 6 Select both the Excel Spreadsheet and the Database then Save them 7 Right click on the Excel file before opening and ensure that Read Only is not checked Do the same for the database file De selecting Read Only is usually necessary when copying the files from the CD 8 Open the Excel program and then select the DTRA spreadsheet 9 You will be asked to Disable or Enable Macros Select Enable Macros 10 You will then be asked which database to use the DTRA database will be highligh
100. ross domestic product at the beginning of the game a measure of a player s available economic resources run mode option that provides for user input between each turn defense systems designed to intercept and defeat offensive missiles greater than 5500 km range of player relationship and corresponding strategic systems between 3000 and 5500 km range of player relationship and corresponding strategic systems INF Treaty covers weapons with ranges between 500 and 5500 km strategic offensive forces launched from the ground e g ICBM player s preference on when to launch its strategic forces either launching after a first strike Rideout or not For additional reference see the Intermediate range and Shorter Range Nuclear Forces Treaty INF http www defenselink mil acq acic treaties inf inf htm 59 SPARTA Inc LAUNCHRELIABILITY LEARN MODE MAIN STRIKE ALLOCATION MASTER MAX EXP MAX EXPEND MAX EXPEND RAID MAXIMALIST MAX MIL EXP STRATEGIC FORCES MEASURE MEDIUM MIDCOURSE SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Other probability that a weapon successfully exits its base silo and completes its preliminary flight phases field that allows the user to instruct the model on how to make choices in the game using the model optimizer guides the optimizer on how to process previous results and incorporate them into a player s strategic behavior perce
101. s display the model s suggested OFFENSE and DEFENSE profiles Below each field is an Edit button for you to modify these profiles If you elect to edit the forces an Offensive or Defensive Edit screen will appear with the familiar Land Based Sea Based and Air Based windows After you make the necessary adjustments either save them Save New Force or disregard them Cancel You will then return to the Posture Edit screen where you will find a third field a list box with which you can identify the player whose posture you are editing default BLUE The four additional buttons on the screen are Restore Orig Posture Restore Model Suggestion Update Measures and Continue If you wish to retain the same posture values that you started the round with select Restore Orig Posture If you wish to shift back to the model s suggested adjustments select Restore Model Suggestion If you wish to see the impact of your changes select Update Measures Finally if you wish to accept the model s suggestions or the changes you have since made select Continue and the model will proceed to the next step Note Under certain circumstances when you select the Continue button the model will inform you of restrictions and details about the game you are running The rationale for displaying the suggested profiles rather than the default original ones even after you have selected No is that the suggested profiles are probably cl
102. s not entirely disengaged or neutral but nor is it overtly supportive of either side The potential exists for it to tacitly support either the U S or China Thus the analyst defines both the BLUE RED relationship and the GREEN RED relationship as Potential Ally Next the analyst specifies the operational ranges between players The range between the U S BLUE and either of the other players RED GREEN is Intercontinental However Russia and China s RED and GREEN closer proximity mean that their range is set at Intermediate 45 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 xi Relationships GREEN ORANGE PURPLE RED BLUE sry Competitor x Neural Neutral Potertid Aly gt GREEN neutral z Neutral Potertia aly gt ORANGE Neutral z nwa PURPLE meura Ranges GREEN ORANGE PURPLE RED BLUE Intercontinente medum medun Intercontinente GREEN meam z mam Intermediate ORANGE Medum z mam z PURPLE medum ve ve NE 0 To simulate a plausible arms control environment the analyst selects START2 ABM for an Arms Control Regime ACR In reality START 2 was never ratified and the U S withdrew from the ABM Treaty in December 2001 However the analyst is interested in exploring how an arms race might still progress under limitations on strategic offenses and defenses Since it is a future scenario he sets the Start Year field for 2003
103. s over time or circumstance To do this you merely select a previously run game from the scenario window and then proceed with the new extended game The extended game will begin at the highest turn number completed in the previously run game You may even choose to stop a run during the course of play make changes to it and then pick up again Under the Automated Run Mode this means allowing the model to complete its run and then modifying the game for future runs Under the Interactive mode it means stopping the run between turns by selecting Exit Run making changes to the scenario e g changing BLUE s criteria from Unilateralist to Cooperativist and then reinitiating the game If you choose to edit an interactive game by exiting prematurely the model will display the Turn at which you exited or the last completed Turn Once you have made your changes select Save and the computer will save the data for the Turn displayed on the form Note If you choose to stop and pick up again you will be starting where you left off That is the starting point for a scenario that has been stopped and picked back up will be the last turn completed before you exited the original run If you completed five full turns before exiting the run and starting again the picked up scenario would display Turn 5 The changes you make to the original run will only be reflected from that point on It is possible to modify data fo
104. sia would appear to be set on a particular strategic path somewhat independent of American and Chinese behavior 51 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 VII POTENTIAL APPLICATIONS SODAC is designed as a modeling tool for personnel analysts and agencies involved in national security planning and strategic issues The model s flexibility allows it to serve a variety of purposes However it is primarily intended for military planners arms control specialists and upper level decision makers who are interested in the nexus between strategic forces and foreign policy The table below illustrates some but not all of the potential applications for the SODAC Model e projecting strategic behavior conducting risk assessments analyzing foreign policy Defense Threat Reduction Strategic Force Planning Agency DTRA Arms Control Foreign Policy Assessment implications e conducting U S risk assessments U S Strategic Command i vane strategic STRATCOM Strategic Force Planning posture on operational level Arms Control e making adjustments to U S force structure e projecting adversary force structure e projecting adversary behavior force structure e evaluating U S strategic posture on national level e conducting U S and adversary risk assessments e analyzing policy implications of strategic behavior Office of Net Assessment ONA Strategic Force Planning U S Department of State
105. st two fields specify the statistical range of uncertainty C Once you have specified the measures and range of uncertainty you will use the option buttons on the right side of the screen to analyze the selected measures The option buttons include Display Raw Data Generate Chart Save All Charts Check Uncertainty Continue to Next Turn and Exit Run The latter two buttons are more or less self explanatory The Display Raw Data button corresponds to the Raw Data section on its left It creates a spreadsheet with the data values for a selected measure and player e g Warheads BLUE This raw data spreadsheet provides details for each turn in the game as well as the overall change or delta in value for the selected measure The Generate Chart button corresponds to the Charts section below it and allows you to create graphical representations of the selected measures on a spreadsheet entitled Measures Save All Charts creates a workbook containing all of the charts the model can create for the scenario Finally the Check Uncertainty button enables you to change one of several variables in a run by a certain percentage figure in order to determine what 39 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 effect that variable has on the results e g changing the values for BLUE s Damage Requirement by 10 and displaying the change in the resulting measure values In other words the Check Uncertainty
106. stently examined throughout the game Somewhat surprisingly the model forecasts no GREEN or RED 49 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 changes in response to BLUE s deployment of missile defenses However cost projections for BLUE naturally rise with the deployment of new systems Satisfied with his experiment the analyst moves on to Turn 4 For Turn 4 the model s suggested changes must accord to the terms of START2 ABM meaning that BLUE will withdraw 300 of its ICBM platforms With the analyst s deployment of missile defenses this would be a de escalation of sorts Therefore the analyst opts to accept the suggested changes and examine how they will impact GREEN and RED s behavior From the Chart options for Turn 4 screen the analyst examines the same measures he has consistently examined This time there is a profound change Delta in BLUE s warhead numbers but no similar change for RED or GREEN Also when he generates the chart for the O amp M costs the analyst finds that BLUE s costs have dropped dramatically unlike those of GREEN or RED Finally the analyst selects Continue to Next Turn Since the model was pre set to 4 turns the model simulation ends and the EMBLEM_SHEET spreadsheet with the DTRA logo appears With the simulation complete the analyst now begins to deconstruct the game and consider its implications He is intrigued by the lack of profound change on the part
107. ted Click OK to select the default DTRA database or select another database that you have modified created The model will open showing the Master screen with the DTRA logo and a series of button options SCENARIO ACRS ALLIANCES POSTURES CRITERIA DOCTRINES OFFENSES DEFENSES and SYSTEMS SODAC may be run after accepting certain pre set items or profiles under these button options Screens terminology and model functions will be described in greater detail in the following sections of the manual SODAC provides a default starter database for initial use The default database compiles public information on strategic and economic resources for three primary players modeled nominally after the United States the Russian Federation and the People s Republic of China It was assembled from reputable open source materials found in strategic literature and relevant websites such as the Federation of American Scientists FAS http www fas org FAS was chosen because it offers the greatest degree of accessibility and detail in a single source The FAS data is considered sufficiently accurate and reliable for the default database The database may be modified or reconstructed to reflect other real world players You may also compile and substitute another set of data as the database to serve your purposes Database options will be discussed in later sections SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 III GEN
108. tenance 77 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Probability of Survival i W Wa X Ds X Pi X Pp X Pa p w x r rO Wat War X Pa WwW Weapons available Alert rate Weapons not attacked Weapons attacked Probability of survival Alert rate For mobile weapons percent at sea in the air or out of garrison at 0 hour For silo based weapons percent ready for launch under attack Probability of survival Based on target hardness and number yield accuracy reliability and penetration of weapons allocated against Weapons Attacked Based on number of weapons available number of targets number of weapons required to achieve desired probability of damage projected reliability probability of penetration Probability of Survival Gui w as fa Wna Wa x Psy w Py Pore 1 log p log damage u X Pi X Py X Pa yield Megatonnes accuracy CEP in nautical miles hardness Pounds per square inch damage Probability of Destruction Required Pa Raw probability of survival rqmt Pi Probability of launch Reliability Pp Probability of penetration Pa Probability of detonation Reliability wW Weapons required Wa Weapons allocated Equals weapons required to point of exhaustion then zero 78 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 D Probability of Penetration Gala W Wa X Ps X Pi Py X Pa w w w x U P anid E w d Off
109. that database When operating SODAC it is important to distinguish between what you as the user can and cannot change in the model The SODAC Model is dynamic in some respects but static in others Certain model functions and the ways in which they instruct the computer to act on behalf of a player are pre set For example the DOCTRINES function guides the computer on how a player would use its strategic forces to achieve its goals and CRITERIA You may choose to select change or de select specific conditions on the DOCTRINES function e g selecting a Launch Posture of Rideout prior to running a scenario so as to influence how that player achieves its objectives You may also influence the decision making process in the Interactive mode by accepting or rejecting the computer s recommended changes thus altering a player s response behavior based on the observed data The Interactive mode acts as a surrogate of sorts for dynamic behavior However you cannot change the conditions of the DOCTRINES profile e g Launch Posture will remain Rideout or those any of the other major functions during the course of the game regardless of how the game plays out The model will continue to run the scenario according to the conditions specified before the game In reality states may alter their positions and preferences to reflect changes in the strategic environment e g changing the Launch Posture from
110. ther Remember that selecting Rideout means that your strategic forces are subject to potential damage that may or may not make them unavailable for retaliatory strikes If however you specify a first strike strategy or select Other your forces will not be subject to potential damage since they will have been launched prior to an adversary s weapons impact The final four fields provide additional details about a player s doctrine and strategic forces employment Damage Requirement allows you to specify the required probability of destruction the percentage of damage a player needs to inflict on an adversary in the event of an exchange in order to achieve that player s goals The First Strike Strategy field tasks you with identifying the basic targeting approach in a player s first strike preference be it the adversary s strategic offensive forces SOF or other military targets OMT Note The definition of First Strike Strategy deviates somewhat from conventional use of the term It is not used to indicate a pre emptive or unprovoked nuclear strike True nuclear first strikes or pre emptive strikes are proscribed by the model It is merely a type of offensive preference First Strike Strategy refers to how a player chooses to use its strategic forces for the first time once it decides to do so Thus a First Strike Strategy could in fact be executed in response to an adversary s incoming attack F
111. three windows representing the U S designated phases of missile defense Boost Phase Midcourse and Terminal The windows will contain information on the systems available under each phase The Defensive Edit screen will also display the same Affiliation and Turn fields found in the OFFENSES function When you select the New button a window will appear listing the types of systems available for that particular defensive phase If you wish to add a system to your inventory highlight the system and select the Add button Otherwise select Cancel 30 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Terminal_Plat Terminal l x Max Interceptors Expend Raid ca 0 Ok You may also choose the Edit button to highlight and modify systems displayed in the defensive forces windows If you select Edit a separate window with two fields Interceptors and Max Expend Raid will appear identifying the defense phase and platform e g Terminal_Plat You may change the number of Interceptors assigned to that phase and or the maximum rate at which they are expended Once again use Okay or Cancel to confirm or abandon your changes Finally save changes to the data or cancel out of the screen SYSTEMS Systems Systems are organizations of equipment personnel and or resources integrated to perform a specific mission In the SODAC Model systems are the strategic platforms that support both offensive and defensive f
112. tiated the model optimizer processes all of the values and data defined by the analyst Comparing the analyst s preferences thresholds with economic and strategic constraints the optimizer proposes a course of action designed to achieve or come as close as possible to achieving the analyst s specified goals The proposed course of action in Turn seems acceptable to the analyst so he selects Yes on the Suggested Response Accept Changes screen The analyst next arrives at a Chart options for Turn 1 screen through which he can study how the game is playing out The analyst is playing the role of BLUE the United States BLUE is interested primarily in how GREEN China and to a lesser extent RED Russia react to its warhead stockpile decisions He marks the selection box for Warheads and uses the list box to identify GREEN as the player he wants to examine He then selects the Display Raw Data button and a GREEN spreadsheet appears displaying all of GREEN s strategic platforms and warhead numbers for both Turn 0 the beginning of the game and Turn 1 The analyst notes that there is no substantial change or Delta in GREEN s numbers He then does the same for RED and finds the same result BLUE s behavior apparently has not provoked a major response in terms of warheads from either of the other two players in Turn 1 The analyst is well aware that economics play a large role in the trilateral relationshi
113. unctionally oriented That is to say they are not scenario or player specific but focused rather on the characteristics of a single strategic platform These characteristics are represented by the following fields SystemName PlatformName MovementType ForceType CostRandD Year CostP Year CostOandM Year NumProcedrerYear Year Available BLUE Year Available GREEN Year Available ORANGE Year Available PURPLE Year Available RED Year Out of Production Year Out of Service Yield MegaTons CredibleDecoysPerWH LaunchReliability DetonationReliability Range km Hardness psi WHperSNDV SNDVperPlatform PlatperBase Accuracy naut miles STARTTreatyCnt Basing CarrierPenFactor WeaponPenFactor Coverage and Pk The MovementType field will display a default setting of Air Based Land Based or Sea Based for offensive weapons and BoostPhase Midcourse or Terminal for defensive weapons depending on the type of system You may modify MovementType via its list box The ForceType field immediately below it will automatically indicate whether the system is offensive or defensive you cannot alter this characteristic unless the system has both offensive and defensive traits 32 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Similarly the Basing field automatically indicates whether the system is Fixed or Mobile If the system has multiple basing options you
114. uper Heavy ICBM Warheads 1540 1540 99999 99999 99999 Mobile ICBM Warheads 1100 1100 99999 99999 99999 MIR ed ICBMs 1600 1600 99999 99999 99999 Ballistic Missiles 4900 4900 99999 99999 99999 MIR ed Ballistic Missiles 4900 4900 99999 99999 99999 Ballistic Missile Warheads 4900 4900 99999 99999 99999 SSBNs 99999 99999 99999 SLBMs 1600 99999 99999 99999 MIR ed SLBMs 4900 99999 99999 99999 SLBM Warheads 4900 99999 99999 99999 Bombers 1600 99999 99999 99999 Bomber CMs 1600 99999 99999 99999 CMs 6000 99999 99999 99999 AirBreather Warheads 6000 99999 99999 99999 Total Interceptors i o a 00 99999 99999 99999 Boost Phase Interceptors 99999 99999 99999 Available in 99999 1991 99999 Midcourse Interceptors o 99999 99999 1600 _ss00 9999 e000 f sooo 99999 1600 _ss00 99999 4900 f a900 99999 ase fise 999 isa fiso 9999 100 fro 9999 1600 f reo 9999 a900 49009999 4900 sso 99999 4900 sso f s9999 la we gor 1600 f 1600 99999 4900 4900 99999 4900 f a900 99999 1600 _ss00 9999 1600 f reo 99999 eooo f sooo 99999 eooo f sooo 99999 100 o0 s999 O A E 100 f o0 999 a epee eet aeee Terminal Interceptors o 99999 99999 Implement by Save As i i 2003 i i 18 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 The categories include Delivery Vehicles Warheads ICBMs I
115. wable measures You may use these fields to assign numerical values to the measures displayed in the adjacent window When more than one measure has been selected for consideration you must specify which is most important to the player by marking the appropriate Primary selection circle Core to the exchange model are the doctrinal measures Measures are strategic principles that frame player behavior and tell the model exactly how players should use their forces to achieve 25 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 their strategic goals In other words they instruct the model on how strategic interaction should be viewed what principles should be consulted when employing strategic forces and how they should be prioritized Measures apply thresholds or criteria to players strategic behavior thresholds that drive the model s decisions on offensive and defensive force adjustments They are intended to guide players to a desired strategic outcome However they should not be confused with measures of strategic military effectiveness SODAC Model measures are not valuations of player or system performance so much as guidelines that inform player behavior The available measures are further classified into distinct units depending on how you wish to treat the measure These units include warheads WH Yield EMT CMP and SUA Specifying a certain unit for the measure will tell the model
116. yer launches the first salvo in a nuclear exchange a descriptive category of measure that describes player behavior and force disposition under actual or potential conditions of nuclear exchange function that allows the user to define the position adopted by a player relative to its strategic environment and the other players in that environment combination of the player s strategic capabilities and preferences player whose interests and attributes make it a natural 63 SPARTA Inc PREWAR PRIMARY PRIMARY COMPETITOR PRODUCTION RANGE RANGE km RAW DATA R amp D REL RELATIONSHIP REPLAY REPORT RESIZE FORM SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 candidate for alliance with the user s player interim step to Firm Alliance Self strategic forces measured before any potential nuclear exchange descriptive category of measure that characterizes player behavior and force disposition prior to conditions of nuclear exchange selection circle on Doctrine Employment Edit screen that allows the user to specify what measure is most important player identified as the foremost competitor by the user the cost of manufacturing and deploying strategic systems denotes both the geographic scale of interaction between players and the corresponding operational ranges of strategic systems that might be employed in such a relationship e g self short medium intermediate
117. you have defined the alliance relationships save or cancel your data Note The matrix field is staggered to represent alliances between different players There is no need to specify an alliance between the same player As it is throughout the model BLUE is the default player for the user Fields are omitted in the matrix where the same player meets e g GREEN GREEN The Alliances function can be used to establish a complex series of overlapping relationships For instance in the current context China and Russia may consider each other a Potential Ally by virtue of their mutual agreement to oppose hegemony read the U S The U S and the U K would likely consider themselves to be in a Firm Alliance For its part India could be considered Neutral with regard to strategic interaction between the superpowers In terms of competitive relationships China would almost certainly consider the U S its Primary Competitor However competitor designations do not have to agree The U S might still consider Russia to be its Primary Competitor despite its assurances to the contrary In that case the U S would likely label China as a Secondary Competitor with an emerging rogue nuclear state like Iran as a Tertiary Competitor POSTURES Postures Posture is the position adopted by a player relative to its environment and the other players in that environment Itis a combination of the player
118. ystem He moves to the Sea Based window on the Offensive Edit screen and selects New A new window appears with Available Sea Elements Ohio_Class_ Trident_D5 The analyst highlights the system with his mouse and selects Add thus equipping the BLUE player with a Sea Based strategic system Finally he presses Save to store his changes first returning to the Posture Edit screen then selecting Save again to return to the Scenario Edit screen 42 SPARTA Inc SODAC User s Manual DTRAO1 00 D 0001 Scenario Edit for Escalation _ONAG51102 x Posture Edit for Posture_1 q xi fat Offensive Edit for OFFENSE_1 x Land Based Plat T Type Bases Plats Silos SNDV WH Slo Midi_MklZa 300 300 300 900 ofi lt Available Sea Elements i xj E sta ASfil B E Description Escalation_ONA051102 China and the U S are engaged in an increasingly confrontational relationship trendno towards strategic competition Russia remains a maior nuclear cower but Having finished with player BLUE the U S the analyst moves to player GREEN representing China The model automatically recognizes BLUE as the default player U S in all scenarios Therefore the analyst must indicate GREEN participation by marking the selection box to the left of the GREEN Posture field As with BLUE the analyst is interested in modifying one minor aspect of GREEN s profile He uses the list box to select Posture_

(SODAC) Model - Federation of American Scientists

Contents

Download Pdf Manuals

Related Search

Related Contents