The Pension model - Pensionsmyndigheten
Contents
1. Efter nya p ratter och arvsvinster Utbet U Omfattningsbyten nybeviljande aXe gruppbyte 7 Utb etalag under ett halvt r i D d 7 har statusbyte bytt grupper 59003 1 0 Premium pension rThalf z 1 rT 0 5 1 inkl arvstvister rChalf 1 rC 0 5 1 Omf 0 Else set zero RC amp t X RC amp n rFhalf 1 rF 0 5 1 a 2 RC7 t RF amp t RCG6t Beh vs f r att starta 1 Initial TF f rf rest ende rets avgifter x TF avkastning Midas 1 2 Initial RC fran Brevfilen Midas 2 3 Initial RF pensian D Omf ppu Midas 4 Pensionppu Midas 5 Arvsvinstper lderklass De d da bidrar med arvsvinterp tre olika s tt TF kapital am man f r de som d r underintj ret RG Q TF kapital am man f r de som d r underr kneskaps ret RT 12 r knas i 4 Det kapital om ligger antigen i RC eller RF 12 12 11 11 10 Reserve RC RF TiN Nig farvaltning Figur 36 Omf gt 0 Else set all to zero RF 7 t R F amp t RC amp t 6 n Reserve 35 37 Dok bet PID123479 Version 1 5 2 Dnr ref 2015 03 13 fee rF rC rT Omf gt 0 and age gt 60 Else set allto zero WEN 3 ee 3 j Aggregering d remellan p Approximationer Alla statusforandringar sker endast mitt sommaren Arvsvinsteroch avgiftenflyttas fran forez2. 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref A scenario form opens Group amp Scenario 25 Choose group Current scenario Groupi bd To create new group mention name of group Bas BaseLine Low LowAlt High HighAlt BasP FMain BasP FMain BasP FMainriTest BasP AFMainTest Close NB Do not click on a scenario in the list If you do all the values will be restored to the latest saved values Click on button Add to Update scenario In the box that opens 15 displayed the name of the scenario and the group Scenario Shortname of Scenario Move to group Bas 1 Longname of Scenario Cancel Ok Do not change anything but click the button OK Now you have updated the scenario BaseLine 29 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref Create a new scenario To create a new scenario with the value 3 5 for realRate of return Premium pension changed to 3 50 do as follows 1 Change the value of realRate of return Premium pension to 3 50 Click on button Edit scenario amp groups A B C D PENSIONS Run Scenario Run group MYNDIGHETEN Run parallell Pensionsmodellen v1 5 1 Run demography only Edit scenarios amp groups 30 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref A scenario form opens Group amp Scenario M Choose a group Current scenario Group1
3. To create new group mention name of group Bas BaseLine Low LowAlt High HighAlt BasPAFMain BasPAFMain BasP FMainTest BasPAFMainTest NB Do not click on a scenario in the list If you do all the values will be restored to the latest saved values Click the button Add to Update scenario In the box that opens 15 displayed the name of the scenario and the group Scenario Shortname of Scenario Move to group Bas 1 7 Longname of Scenario Cancel Ok Change the short and long name as desired and click the button OK Now a new scenario has been created If you also change the group the scenario will be created in the selected group BaseLine 31 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref Troubleshooting You cannot close Excel The easiest way to terminate the pension model is to use the buttons Close without saving or Save amp Close in the Main worksheet This closes down the pension model and terminates Excel Otherwise you must first close all workbooks except Main which must be the last workbook closed Workbooks that do not belong to the pension model are handled manually If you cannot close the model using the above mentioned buttons you can always close Excel via Windows Task Manager There is a folder named Data containing binary files The Data folder partly contains files necessary for the system to run and partly calibrated
4. 59003 1 0 PENSIONS Dok bet PID123479 Ve MYNDIGHETEN ep bore aes The Pension model User Manual 59003 1 0 Contents IEF OGUCTION en puedes eaa a HO LE Pac EET 3 scies E e Lei Tr 3 staring tae Penson dree EE SE 4 GXCCUllON EE 5 User mode EN 7 INTE ACC cous EE 7 Navigation seeing results P d E DE kou La E 7 scenaro aNd Er EE 8 Description of parameters and variables 9 Advanced mode siiis AGO x CROCO MR 10 a E tM Rm 10 Scenario management Ee ee E S Nut UE PEN 10 Scenario and group centes ree Res eS vas a ba UE DEDOS dE Pu es 11 EE 13 Navigation seeing the results NNN 15 OUR DUE Ee PTT 16 Merging teste EE 18 Developer EE 19 IDnterfdee EE EES 19 Demograbpliics E 20 Populatlohn TOFECOSE EE 20 Retirement Age Offset GG RU Gp COGO QR GORGE ORC OR 22 The Pension Sy EE 23 ESOS gll IONS ea patte cod a 23 Printing VE 24 Advanced E og lu EE 25 K NN 25 DeEMOGraAD ie 26 Example Update scenario or create new scenario 28 Update the scelatto asia eee pP fd D RD CE PD Ea a RR 28 Create a new scenarlO sedere pute se E cci Lei 30 TFOUDICSHOOUNG EE
5. Enter a Short name and a Long name for the scenario Select a group from the list Move to group if itis empty When updating a scenario you keep the Short and the Long name Click the OK button You have now created a group with a scenario containing parameters It will be displayed in the main form Figure 13 To delete a scenario from a group select the scenario and click the button Delete scenario Figure 13 To remove the parameter from a scenario delete the name and values in the Main worksheet Click the button Add Update scenario Figure 13 Check that the group and scenario names are correct and then click the OK button Figure 14 You can delete a group by selecting the group in the list Select a group Figure 13 and clicking the button Delete group All scenarios in the group will be deleted simultaneously The existing values of parameters can be changed and the table below shows where they are stored 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref Parallel processing Parallel processing makes it possible to run multiple scenarios simultaneously one of the benefits of which is saving time This means that the model takes advantage of the fact that computers have multi core processors normally 2 4 or 8 and create new instances of Excel allowing each processor to work optimally The original model becomes the Master and any created instances are Slaves In the Master model you can place runs in a queue and sta
6. 4 570471 137 0299 94 92301 96 61563 95 0313 94 06467 94 30332 90 30641 86 8209 72 84677 72 3454 68 36855 71 07594 66 81431 69 96491 70 11732 93 28253 60 64147 83 10075 115 9785 0 100144 0 007787 0 011902 0 049393 2021 5 157757 154 6102 107 294 109 1729 107 5164 106 3047 106 6519 102 134 98 03595 82 56949 81 77529 77 41627 80 2527 75 54423 78 89575 79 37681 105 1021 68 76858 93 98554 131 3764 213 6804 243 413 AAA 2020 4 582649 137 3828 95 25307 96 93633 95 40609 94 38325 94 65708 90 64626 87 07839 73 20158 72 59754 68 66726 71 28476 67 05648 70 12501 70 41495 93 45706 60 95165 83 41389 116 5072 0 091956 0 006161 0 009972 0 040452 2022 5 177051 155 1747 107 783 109 6531 108 0567 106 7795 107 1672 102 6288 98 43239 83 06088 82 14862 77 83821 80 57498 75 89967 79 16099 79 79956 105 4111 69 19459 94 44127 132 1174 215 566 245 374 B N Origin 1 Sverige 2 2021 2022 4 598441 4 615578 137 844 138 3454 95 6589 96 09349 97 334 97 7608 95 85716 96 33749 94 77684 95 19885 95 08637 95 54451 91 05843 91 49825 87 40477 87 75699 73 61551 74 05258 72 90744 73 23927 69 02112 69 39634 71 54996 71 83629 67 35209 67 66804 70 34016 70 57565 70 76905 71 14497 93 70461 93 97887 61 31119 61 69015 83 79358 84 19872 117 1298 117 7887 0 092173 0 0886 0 006105 0 0060 0
7. probabilities which speed up pension model runs Graphs which show restrictions being calculated are not updated This can have various causes Either the check box Restriction animation is unchecked in the Main worksheet and this also applies to Chart animation in the Chart worksheet or perhaps saved matrices are being used to speed up runs in which case restriction animations are not updated You get the message of memory The memory used by Excel can run out if you re run the pension model very many times To fix this restart Excel You get the message Security Warning Automatic Update of links has been disabled Click Enable Content and then Continue You get the message End Year is not the same as the last run End Year Charts and all data will be cleaned Do you want to continue Due to the new run having a different end year than the previous run all diagrams animated in the worksheet Chart are cleared This is done so that the year axes will be consistent with the new end year 32 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 33 37 Dok bet PID123479 Version 1 5 2 Dnr ref 2015 03 13 Appendix 1 Detailed description of the pension model Description of parameters Sex 0 1 Age 0 120 Origin 1 7 Countries with high HDI excl Europe Countries with average HDI excl Europe 6 Countries with low HDI excl Europe HDI stands for Human Development Index and 15 a
8. 0 4 85 85 25833 101 1426 1498 1 0 5 85 84 71872 100 447 1499 1 0 6 85 84 71872 100 4833 1500 1 0 7 81 81 12132 96 2176 1501 1 0 8 78 78 42327 92 9442 1502 1 0 9 65 64 93303 77 10211 1503 1 0 10 65 65 1129 77 20881 1504 1 0 11 61 61 15576 72 58038 1505 1 0 12 64 64 21355 76 10131 1506 1 0 13 60 60 07654 71 24669 1507 1 0 14 63 63 49407 75 20081 1508 1 0 15 63 62 77459 74 49235 1509 1 0 16 85 84 89859 100 511 1510 1 0 17 54 53 96097 64 08959 1511 1 0 18 75 74 64601 88 53769 1512 a 0 19 104 103 6051 122 9831 1513 1 0 20 164 163 6816 194 9361 1514 1 0 21 188 187 7842 223 46 RR H ETEY peme A MortsityRates FertlityRates Ready Figure 32 Immigration is the factor that can be modified most easily since it concerns data about numbers Fertility mortality and emigration can be somewhat harder to modify since they involve events in relation to an average population With a simple adjustment you can rescale the numbers using a constant factor Modifications risk destroying the internal structure of a forecast alternative and or resulting in unrealistic figures 2013 4 91522 147 4438 101 5912 103 4999 101 4243 100 7267 100 7631 96 48554 93 20302 77 31682 77 42381 72 78249 76 31323 71 44509 75 41022 74 69979 100 7909 64 26806 88 78424 123 3256 0 191415 0 016773 0 018766 0 114417 2014 4 935345 148 0345 102 0889 103 9908 101 9684 101 2111 101 2843 96 98576 93 61235 77 80375
9. 010296 0 0102 0 040015 0 0366 0 Data 20 2023 20 5 19473 5 217 155 6907 156 36 108 2392 108 80 110 0999 110 66 108 5646 109 18 10722218 107 7 107 6503 108 24 103 0926 103 66 98 79841 99 268 83 52815 84 084 82 49699 82 932 78 23718 78 719 80 87235 81 254 76 23215 76 645 79 40124 79 724 80 19866 80 682 105 6865 106 07 69 60068 70 081 94 86856 95 396 132 8197 133 66 217 395 219 46 247 2687 249 4 cna Dok bet Version Dnr ref 27 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 28 37 Dok bet PID123479 Version 1 5 2 Dnr ref 2015 03 13 Example Update scenario or create new scenario Let us assume you have a scenario named Bas with parameters as in the figure below Inflation 2 0096 realAveWageGrowth 1 80 realFundYield 3 2596 Interest rate 2 0096 realRate of retur balancing True Constant prices None Custom number 1 Update the scenario Make sure you have chosen Advanced or Developer mode To update the scenario that is keep the name but with changed parameter values by changing the value of realRate of return Premium pension to 3 5096 do as follows l Change the value of realRate of return Premium pension to 3 5096 2 Click the button Edit scenario amp groups A B C D PENSIONS Run Scenario Run group MYNDIGHETEN Run parallell er n v1 5 Edit scenarios amp groups
10. 100 096 098 0 95 Choose variable 036 Bas 034 Sas 0 93 0 92 092 Enlarge chart 021 0 88 090 m 0 m t m o m to m o m mgm o m oem om om Choose scenario RRRRRERAR ARR ARR RAR RR RRR RRRRRRRRRR RRR RAR F Chart animation At top left Figure 3 you see that the last calculated year 15 2019 To the right you see that the current year is 2020 and the final year for the run is 2100 Program execution is estimated to finish at 13 37 5 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref In figure 3 six graphs show the results for the years calculated On each graph there is a Select variable button which opens a dialogue box allowing you to choose which variable to show Figure 4 Chart variabels Ko E Name amp description of variabels x Y stsFact has PGII x_Y_stsFact_is_parent_0_1 Har Ar f r lder med barn 0 1 r Har pensionsarundande inkomst fran anstallnina eller annat f rv rvsarbete Ar f r lder med barn 0 1 r X Y stsFact is retired Ar pensionar Ar pensionar x_Y_stsFact_has_transfer Har transfereringar Har transfereringar s som f r ldrapenning a kassa sjuk och aktivitetsersattning x_Y_stsFact_has_BPGB Har BPGB Har pensionsgrundande belopp for barn r x_Y_stsFact_has_PGBSTUD Har PGBSTUD Har pensionsgrundande belopp f r studier X Y stsFact is
11. 147983 0 116282 0 016431 0 014633 0 012871 0 011142 0 009448 0 020386 0 019192 0 017756 0 016324 0 013654 0 111361 0 101244 0 089411 0 079984 0 05782 0 oO oO oO oO oO oO 2016 5 063013 151 8373 104 8982 106 819 104 8716 103 9776 104 1281 99 71126 96 09103 80 16732 79 94604 75 35215 78 67143 73 80315 77 59156 77 30831 103 5793 66 68661 91 75383 127 7526 204 4855 233 8457 annans 0 oooo 2017 5 096442 152 8263 105 6759 107 594 105 6982 104 7391 104 9287 100 4791 96 75433 80 87395 80 53939 75 97825 79 21231 74 36121 78 07481 77 94099 104 1815 67 29088 92 46083 128 8385 206 891 236 4102 ane acne 0 2018 5 112377 153 2907 106 0919 108 0006 106 1636 105 142 105 3705 100 9034 97 08587 81 30516 80 8571 76 34513 79 48155 74 6649 78 28971 78 30763 104 4251 67 66618 92 8517 129 4852 208 5993 238 1758 990 raaa nana nonr 0 2019 5 123616 153 6141 106 4111 108 3086 106 5325 105 4489 105 7164 101 2358 97 32847 81 66311 81 10106 76 64291 79 67796 74 90056 78 43246 78 60333 104 5721 67 98065 93 15808 130 0148 210 1245 239 7308 2020 5 139371 154 0727 106 8249 108 7126 106 9965 105 8494 106 1565 101 6584 97 65708 82 09445 81 41703 77 00927 79 94477 75 20282 78 64412 78 96928 104 8107 68 35634 93 54739 130 6611 211 8432 241 5053 2019
12. 32 Appendix EEN 33 Detailed description of the pension model cce 33 Detailed view of inner workings of the pension system 34 et sinn si Een EE 34 Premium PENSION e a a a aer a a a 35 Dok bet Version Dnr ref 2 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref Introduction The Pension Model comprises a number of Excel files associated VBA code and matrix files For optimal performance as much memory as possible should be available in Excel This can be achieved by having only workbooks belonging to the Pension Model open A 90 year simulation may require just over one and a half hours to complete but subsequent runs using the same starting parameters will be approximately four times faster The most important files are Main xlsm Ledger The model s centre linking together the various parts The interface for selection of scenario Display of results during execution DemographicModel xlsb Demographics model PensionSystem xIsb Pension system Installation The Pension Model does not require any special installation The only requirement is that you download all files onto the local hard drive To use the model you must have a reasonably modern Windows PC with Excel version 32 bit Excel 2007 or later installed If the files are located on a server or USB flash drive performance will be affected negatively You
13. 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref Main alternative SCBEZUT Low mortality SCBZO12 High mortality SCBZ0TZ Main alternative SCBEZU TI Low mortality SCBZOT1 High mortality SCBEZU TI Steady state Main alt 2012 level SCBZUTz Figure 25 Similarly the desired alternative for fertility immigration and emigration can be selected The different alternatives may be taken from Statistics Sweden s various population forecasts or be alternatives of one s own In the 2011 forecast there was no alternative with high and low mortality in the forecast published by Statistics Sweden These two alternatives have been developed using the same principles as those used in previous forecasts from Statistics Sweden High mortality corresponds to an assumption that the risk of death remains unchanged throughout the forecast period low mortality corresponds to an assumption that the risk of death continues to decline at the same rate throughout the forecast period Steady state is another alternative not included in the SCB population forecast The choice of steady state for survival fertility immigration and emigration results in a population forecast with a long term constant population and age distribution There are many other possible alternatives which also result in a constant future population and age distribution In other contexts steady state 15 usually called stationary population Under the heading
14. 77 80375 73 20403 76 64629 71 80561 75 69106 75 12309 101 1251 64 68873 89 24497 124 0635 197 2933 225 9803 2014 5 08111 152 4067 105 1041 107 0621 104 9801 104 2004 104 2757 99 85023 96 37718 80 10168 80 10168 75 3661 78 91003 73 92638 77 92659 77 34184 104 1118 66 59931 91 88082 127 7277 0 189323 0 016602 0 019568 0 112521 O 2015 5 009159 150 2354 103 699 105 6143 103 6247 102 7982 102 9097 98 54335 95 04065 79 14078 79 03146 74 42461 77 81361 72 94875 76 79472 76 36617 102 5577 65 81655 90 67868 126 156 201 2759 230 3579 checa 2015 4 490389 134 6764 92 95948 94 67645 92 89284 92 15196 92 25192 88 33777 85 19783 70 94462 70 84662 66 71687 69 75489 65 39386 68 84152 68 45736 91 93635 59 0003 81 28761 113 0908 2017 4 554326 136 57 94 43501 96 14911 94 45494 93 59789 93 7673 89 79099 86 46244 72 27128 71 97231 67 89634 70 78639 66 45131 69 76989 69 6503 93 0996 60 13305 82 62565 115 1338 2016 4 529878 135 8488 93 85242 95 57092 93 82866 93 0288 93 16343 89 21167 85 97265 71 7257 71 52772 67 41757 70 38733 66 03168 69 42117 69 16775 92 67243 59 66451 82 09216 114 3002 4 563828 136 8428 94 70843 96 41236 94 77242 93 86046 94 06445 90 0766 86 66873 72 58126 72 18128 68 15343 70 95332 66 65349 69 88936 69 90536 93 22048 60 40572 82 88887 115 5916 2018 0 189867 0 177303 0 164464 0
15. Settings Figure 2 page 5 one can among other things choose the starting year for the population forecast If the first forecast year First SimYear Demography 15 set to 2012 the starting population for the forecast will be the population at the end of 2011 For example if 2030 is chosen as the first forecast year a population forecast is made using the selected forecast alternatives for the years 2030 up to and including the year selected on the row for End Year The years before 2030 are provided with data on population number of births number of deaths number of immigrants and emigrants according to Statistics Sweden s main alternative The population forecast can be run separately without the Pension System running by clicking on the button Run only demographics Figure 2 21 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref Retirement Age Offset It is possible to choose a parameter for the age of retirement the model uses the parameter S_RetirementAge The model is roughly based on the proposal of the Retirement Age Investigation SOU 2013 25 that there should be a target age for when to retire The target age should follow life expectancy 1 The 61 year limit for the earliest withdrawal of old age pension will be increased to 62 years from 2015 and according to current forecasts to 63 years from 2019 FirstRetAge means the earliest pension age and RecRetirementAge means the recommende
16. and the pension system have an Output worksheet Under the Main worksheet there 15 an area in the lower right Figure 2 that you can use as a shortcut to see output from the forecast Which tabs are displayed can be changed via a drop down list which is displayed when you click on cells under the heading Worksheet Figure 18 If the drop down list does not work for any workbook it is because the file is not open In the Settings worksheet for each workbook you can decide which tabs are to be displayed in the drop down list Navigationstable LAE SE 4 JE SE JE JE 8 4 4 Figure 18 For example click on the arrow to the left of PensionSystem xlsb Figure 18 There is a list of all variables that are printed out At the far left there is another link Link which takes you to the output worksheet for the current variable Name Print Scenario Wide Location Worksheet Path PM59003 1 0 x_AY_He Yes High SANN Orange rapport xisb OrangeRapport Data x AY L star Yes High SANN Orange rapport xisb OrangeRapport_Data AY H Yes High SANN Orange rapport xisb OrangeRapport Data AN L Yes High SANN Orange rapport xisb OrangeRapport Data AY pens qualify income average Yes High SANN Orange rapport xisb OrangeRapport Data AY economic annuity divisor Yes High SANN Orange rapport xisb OrangeRapport Data AY Ud Yes High SANN Orange rapport xisb OrangeRapport Data AY ATP U gain Yes High SANN Orange rapport xisb OrangeRap
17. in swe Befolkning i Sverige Befolkning i Sverige X Y stsFact is parent 0 4 Ar f r lder med barn 0 4 ar Ar f r lder med barn 0 4 ar x_Y_stsFact_has_high_edu Har eftergymnasial utbildning Har eftergymnasial utbildning X Y stsFact is alive Population totalt Population totalt x Y fund contribution Pensionsr tter till buffertfonden V rdet av nya pensionsr tter till buffertfonden IP contribution ATP contribution x Y fund payment Pensionsutbetalningar fran buffertfonden Pensionsutbetalningar fran buffertfonden IP_payment ATP_payment x_Y_fund_netflow Avgiftsnetto Influtna avgifter minus pensionsutbetalningar som andel influtna avgifter x Y fund strength Fondstyrka Fondstyrka IP x Y IP index Indexering IP Hur mycket beh llningen ndras pga indexering inkomstpensionen x_Y_IP_payment Pensionsutbetalningar IP Pensionsutbetalningar f r inkomstpensionen x_Y_ATP_payment Pensionsutbetalningar ATP Pensionsutbetalningar f r tillaggspension x_Y_PP_payment Pensionsutbetalningar PP Pensionsutbetalningar f r premiepensionen x Y IP contribution Pensionsr tt IP Pensionsratt inkomstpension x_Y_ATP_contribution Pensionsratt ATP Pensionsratt f r tillaggspension x Y PP contribution Pensionsr tt PP Pensionsratt for premiepension x Y IP active liability Pensionsskuld IP aktiva Pensionsskuld inkomstpension aktiva x Y IP pens liability Pensionsskuld IP pensionerade Pensionsskuld inkomstpension pensionerade x Y TP active liability Pensionsskuld ATP a
18. no save User guide swedish Clean Trans Est Run parallell About Pensionsmodellen i Manage textfiles output ee Run demography only Clean output data 1 5 Edit scenarios amp groups About the run A MidasS Pensionssimulering Pensionsmodellen Groupi BaseLine Bas Last run 2015 03 04 magbru Inflation 2 00 14 02 55 realAvgWageGrowth 1 80 14 11 34 realFundYield 3 2596 RGK Interest rate 2 00 realRate of return Premium pension 3 25 balancing True Constant prices None Custom_number 1 Navigationstable EI m E gt EI EI Figure 11 A scenario 15 a collection of parameters specifying the assumptions on which the calculations for the forecast are based The parameters are specified in the Main worksheet In the left column under the heading Parameters the name is given and in the right column the value or the name of the selected alternative is written Figure 11 HI The buttons above are used to move up or down the parameters in the Main worksheet Status parameters orange area the parameters whose names begin with S_ cannot be moved 10 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref Scenario and group A scenario is a set of parameter values Multiple scenarios can be formed into a group If you make changes to a scenario by changing a parameter value you must save the scenario before it can be run You save a scenario by clicking
19. on the Edit scenario amp group button Figure 12 PENSIONS Run Scenario Run group Quit amp save MYNDIGHETEN MG Run parallell User guide swedish About Pensionsmodellen Clean Trans Est Manage textfiles output ee ellen mu Clean output data Vi o About the run Current folder X Midas Pensionssimulering Pensionsmodellen Groupi Baseline Main alternative SCB2013 Main alternative 5 2013 Main alternative SCB2013 Bas Main alternative SCB2013 Last run a Figure 12 To create a group do as follows If you wish to update an existing scenario or save a new scenario in an existing group go to step Sch Choose group Current scenario Groupi ae To create new group mention name of group Bas BaseLine Low LowAlt High HighAlt BasP FMain BasP FMain BasP FMainTest BasP FMainTest Close 1 Enter the group name in the Enter the name of the new group Figure 13 and click Figure 13 Create group 11 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 12 37 Dok bet PID123479 Version 1 5 2 Dnr ref 2015 03 13 2 Click the button Add Update scenario Be very careful not to click on the scenario name in the list figure 13 Scenario Shortname of Scenario Move to group Bas Longname of Scenario BaseLine Figure 14 3 This opens a new window Figure 14
20. 44112 4391 43307 44644 45042 46984 487 Mainxism 59 142 59 182 58 591 55 983 53 551 49888 4594 44026 43837 43230 44556 44954 46 55446 58977 59018 58431 55 838 53 421 49778 45838 43951 43764 431620 44483 445 ON PensionSystem xlsb 53 655 55331 58 845 58 886 58 303 55 725 53321 49 698 45 778 43 903 43 719 43 122 444 S 53 523 737 77 3 32 3 73 387 3 3 Bi raphicModelxisb 49609 53 569 55 238 58 73 58 778 58 199 55634 53 241 49636 45736 43871 43690 43C x 48507 49554 53 498 55 161 58 646 58689 58113 55 560 53178 49592 45705 43850 43 Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications DemographicModel xlsb ThisWorkbook lt projutv2010 Population Bom 4Deceased Immigrants emigrants Histqx Pyramid Data 8 gal al o3 asd Wi Figure 21 If the whole model is run the results Figure 21 are also found as tabs in the file PensionSystem xlsb with the exception of Life expectancy X in the variable name means that it is an export variable that 1s a variable that can be printed out x AY He The development of pension disbursements due to deaths Proportion of outstanding payments to age group x AY H Development of the proportion of people who have been credited with pensionable income or pensionable amounts and are not registered as deceased x AY pens qualify income average An average pension credit for calculating the income period Orange Report Appendix B formula 3 1 2 x
21. AY economic annuity divisor Economic annuity divisor supplementary pension 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref x_Y_turnover_duration_level_ out Smoothed turnover duration OT_bar x Y pension balances Sum of pension balances Estimated value of supplementary pension to people who have not started to claim their supplementary pension have not begun to be paid out PB IPR TP Pension liability to retirees in distribution x Y pens liability retired system regarding pensions being paid out x Y pens liability SA SP x Y contribution revenue Contribution revenue to the distribution system x Y contribution revenue level out Smoothed contribution revenue to the distribution system x Y contribution asset Contribution assets x Y buffer fund The total market value of assets of Ist 4th and 6th AP Funds x Y buffer fund level out Smoothed value for the buffer fund x Y balance ratio Contribution assets three year average of x Y balance index When balancing is activated the income index is used instead of the balance index x Y fund netflow Accrued contributions minus pension disbursements as a proportion of accrued contributions x Y fund strength Fund strength IP x Y IP payment Pension disbursements for inkomstpension Y ATP payment Pension disbursements for supplementary pension IP payment ATP payment x PP Fund Pension liability premium pension PP Fund active PP Fund retired x PP Fund stre
22. RUG Vi o S Select scenarios amp groups Svenska User guide swedish Engelska English About Pensionsmodellen About the run BaseLine as Pensionssimulering Pensionsmod Last run 2015 03 04 magbru Inflation 2 00 14 02 55 realAvgWageGrowth 1 80 14 11 34 realFundYield 3 2596 RGK Interest rate 2 00 Settings realRate of return Premium pension 3 25 2013 balancing True Constant prices None po 2100 Custom number 1 Navigationstable EI m m Figure 2 During execution During each execution a population forecast is first made after which the pension calculation starts During ze PGII 5 Net contribution IP oss v Restriction ani 5 460 000 5 5440000 5 420 000 Restrictions 5 400 000 5 380 000 m 5360000 R 534000 2320000 m o m tw m o m m o m m omo RRRRHRRRHHRRHRREHHRR ze Population in Sweden Data 5 ver Fund strength oa P e Giao 10 200 000 5 Mule SEENEN ped Emigration 9 700 000 45 Second_Immig2 9 600000 44 9 500 000 43 340000 m wo m pm m oo m o m m m m m MI D P ei HA E RRRRRR RR RRR RRR RRR OTTELE Balance ratio Data 5 Cumulative balance ratio product oan 101 1 08 5 1 00 5 ei 106 oss 1 04 098 102 027 Show data
23. T 1 2 Select scenarios amp groups About the run X MidasS Pensionssimulering Pensionsmodellen Group BaseLine Simmigration E n t A S Last run Figure 5 Navigation seeing results Output from the run is available in different output sheets at the bottom of the screen From the Main sheet you can also use the Navigation table where the desired workbook or sheet can be selected by clicking on the arrow to the left Output from the run is administered by the information in the Output worksheet Both the demographics and the pension system have an Output worksheet where you can indicate which variables are to be printed out The variables found there will be printed out From the Main worksheet there is an area in the lower right that you can use as a shortcut Which worksheets are displayed can be changed via a drop down list Figure 6 You can select the desired workbook and worksheet by clicking on the arrow to the left Navigationstable Manxsm DemographicModel xlsb Index DemographicModel xlsb input DemographicModel xlsb Output PensionSystemxlsb Pensionsystemab e Pensionsystemadh 00000000 L 4 m Figure 6 Some worksheets may be hidden from the current mode This means that the shortcut will not work and a message will appear If the drop down list does not work for any workbook it is because the file i
24. aende rsskiftet Kick back som ovan achgarsinbakat i den totala fondavkastninzen Alderoberonde r nta for sparande ach utbetalninzzfaserna Traden ar inbakad i Fondforsakring Avgifter far de samaraldrean amp har hanteras som omde wore fullt i IP och PP Det gars fel idaz f rmodar jaz 12 11 10 PPPayFAII PFA t this 59003 1 0 36 37 Dok bet PID123479 Version 1 5 2 Dnr ref 2015 03 13 PP U2n Sum of disbursements due next year p_U2t PPU2t 02 U3 t t t Ongoing annual disbursement amount at year end IP S1 n Total balance continuing to next year conceptually prior to pension recalculation Corresponds to S6 t from before year end but without balances from deceased IPU1n PP_U1_n Sum of disbursements carried over to next year Index adjusted Value of total balance after fictive withdrawal of pension Functions as basis for annual recalculation of pension and balance ATP_S3_n Total balance directly after annual recalculation Valid until the next change of status e next spring half year pT PPS2 tt IP S3 t PP S3 t ATP S3 t As 53 n but after status transition 54 t SA t ATP 54 t Balance directly after the mid year IPS5t PP 55 t ATP S5 t Balance after indexation but before payment of administration fees IP 56 t PP S6 t ATP S6 t Balance at year end including balances of those deceased during the year In the workbook R
25. d pension age 2 The 65 year limit target age for guarantee pension sickness allowance and similar benefits will be raised to 66 years from 2019 according to current forecasts There are a number of predefined parameters for the change in the retirement age The Main alternative is to let the demographics decide AgeOffset Year FirstRetAge RecRetirementA 2012 61 2015 62 2019 Demo Figure 26 According to Figure 26 above the 61 year limit applies up to 2015 when it raised to 62 Note that subsequently there is always a 3 year difference between the can retire and the target age As of 2019 it is the demographics that decide In conjunction with the other parameters from the base scenario this means 2021 the target age is raised to 67 2036 the target age is raised to 68 2053 the target age is raised to 69 2073 the target age is raised to 70 2096 the target age is raised to 71 You can also determine manually when regulatory changes occur for example AgeOffset Year FirstRetAge RecRetirementAge 2012 61 65 2015 62 65 2050 63 66 2070 64 67 22 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref Figure 27 The retirement age offset as shown in Figure 27 means that the target age 15 raised to 66 in 2050 and to 67 in 2070 The parameter value Constant means the same age limits as today The Pension System The pension system 15 a macro model with high resolutio
26. e 24 The year 2011 must also be included even if the cells are empty The example Figure 30 shows the main assumption of Statistics Sweden from the 2012 forecast gathered in rows 6 to 1489 followed by the next alternative from row 1491 Figure 31 Input data for the starting population is in the worksheet Initialpopulationsweden 26 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 F DemographicModel xlsb A B 1 Main 2 3 4 immigration H v daltermnativScB2012 d 5 ORIGIN SEX AGE 2011 2012 6 1 0 0 4 4 137008 T 1 0 1 124 124 1102 8 1 0 2 85 85 4382 9 1 0 3 87 87 05703 10 1 0 4 85 85 25833 11 1 0 5 85 84 71872 12 1 0 6 85 84 71872 13 1 0 7 81 81 12132 14 1 0 8 78 78 42327 15 1 0 9 65 64 93303 16 1 0 10 65 65 1129 A 1 0 11 61 61 15576 18 1 0 12 64 64 21355 19 1 0 13 60 60 07654 20 1 0 14 63 63 49407 21 1 0 15 63 62 77459 22 1 0 16 85 84 89859 23 1 0 17 54 53 96097 24 1 0 18 75 74 64601 25 1 n 19 104 103 6051 Figure 31 1478 7 1 ad al 0 198877 0 20037 1479 7 J 95 0 0 017115 0 016944 1480 7 96 0 0 017115 0 017904 1481 7 97 0 0 113879 0 111996 1482 7 1 98 0 0 0 1483 7 1 99 0 0 0 1484 7 1 100 0 0 0 1485 7 1 101 0 0 0 1486 7 1 102 0 0 0 1487 7 1 103 0 0 0 1488 7 1 104 0 0 0 1489 7 1 105 0 0 0 1490 1492 ORIGIN SEX AGE 2011 2012 2013 1493 1 0 0 4 4 137008 4 901571 1494 1 0 1 124 124 1102 147 0343 1495 1 0 2 85 85 4382 101 3091 1496 1 0 3 87 87 05703 103 2125 1497 1
27. ents and smaller errors The last stage has small adjustments and the final margin of error This way we avoid one restriction taking Over Printing variables Variables specified in the Output or Output developer worksheet can be printed to an Excel file or a text file if the Yes option is selected in the column Output destination If you select Excel file you must also specify which worksheet and start cell or Name field to print to Is the file or worksheet does not exist it is created automatically If you select text file you must also specify the path to where the text file will be created In the column Location select or type the text File and in the column Worksheet Path type the path to the folder A folder with the same name as the variable 1s created A text file 1s created after each run and the text file receives the name of the scenario Each text file contains the results of the run though without headings If you run the same scenario the old file is replaced by the new one In the folder of the text file sub folder named Info is automatically created in which a text file 15 saved containing information about the current run 24 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref Advanced settings New parameter For the scenario parameters found in the Main worksheet which may have a limited number of values it is best to create a drop down list This is how you do i
28. er the worksheet Descriptions hidden in User mode Quit amp save Quit save User guide swedish About Pensionsmodeller Clean output data About the run Current folder X AMidasSXPensionssimulerir Groupl BaseLine Bas Last run 2015 03 04 Figure 9 A parameter and a variable are included in a category and one or more subcategories When you click on Description of variables Figure 10 a form is displayed where you can select category and subcategory to display the description of the parameter or variable The model is designed to include descriptions in multiple languages Modelvariabel BALN_DXdivINKINDEX Scenario Parameter deaths_in_SWEDEN deaths_OUTBOARD fund_payment fund strength IP index net fee PGII PP vs income RecRetirementAge tp turnover_duration Ud IP Inkomstpension PP Premiepension Fastst lld rekommenderad pensions lder Figure 10 9 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref Advanced mode Interface In the Advanced mode there are additional worksheets functions and buttons available Scenario management The Pension Model has built in scenario management in order to save and manage the model s parameters and assumptions PENSIONS Run Scenario Run group MYNDIGHETEN Quit amp save Double click on item Select mode Clean output data Descri ption of para meters Quit
29. esult after a run of the Pension System you can see the aggregated values of the variables for example AY IP S6 t 2 Age vs Year for IP S6 t Other variables from which you can read results are Osay Origin Sex Age Year x OSAY IP empirical inheritance gain retired Empirical inheritance gains for inkomstpension for lt 60 years x OSAY IP demographic inheritance gain retired Forecast inheritance gains for inkomstpension for gt 60 years x OSAY ATP empirical inheritance gain retired 60 years years pension x OSAY PP empirical inheritance gain active Empirical inheritance gains for persons not claiming premium pension at start of year x OSAY IP admin fee Administration fees paid inkomstpension x OSAY ATP admin fee Administration fees paid ATP x OSAY PP admin fee retired Administration fees paid premium pension x OSAY PP admin fee active Administration fees paid for persons not claiming PP at start of year x OSAY PP fund return spring retired Change in market value in premium pension 59003 1 0 37 37 Dok bet PID123479 Version 1 5 2 Dnr ref 2015 03 13 0 funds during spring premium pension premium pension x OSAY PP RGK return Change in market value in premium pension funds during autumn National Debt Office indexation inkomstpension x OSAY ATP indexation Adjustment of index on changed amount during year due to norm reducing disbursement index inkomstpension indexation ATP PP index Adju
30. ifferent modes corresponding to user levels for displaying different parts of the model User mode Advanced mode and Developer mode The model first opens in User mode The various modes are described m more detail later in this document In the Main worksheet Figure 2 you can select the language for texts title and buttons Change the language by double clicking on the desired language Clicking on the Run Scenario button runs a simulation using the options and conditions that you have chosen There is also the Run Group button to run all scenarios within a group Clicking on the Run Only Demographics button runs only the population forecast in the model In Figure 2 the Base Scenario is shown selected Another scenario can be selected using the button Select Scenario amp Groups or Edit Scenario amp Groups If you create a new scenario it must first be saved under a suitable name before you can run the model In User mode a new set of parameters is always saved as My Scenario That s the only scenario that you as user can influence in User mode See section Scenario management The check box for Clear Output is used to clear output files where the column Clean is set to TRUE output files are specified in the file PensionSystem xlsb 4 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref MYNDIGHETEN Run group oz voire or rameters _Selectmode _ si Quit no save ha ra EEE C
31. indicates how many of the restriction groups have come sufficiently close to the target A small bubble means that most of the conditions have been met A large bubble means that few conditions have been met You need not attach much importance to or interpret how the bubble chart moves This is mainly to show that the model is busy performing calculations At the top right you find the Abort run Operation button that allows you to cancel a run You may have to click several times for the interrupt request to be registered When the model has registered a break the text The run will be terminated is shown just below The run will be terminated after the current year has been fully calculated There are also two check boxes that make it possible to turn off animation The speed of a run is not significantly affected by the year charts to the left while the bubble chart does have a certain impact At the bottom figure 3 you find the Clear button for clearing the charts This may have to be used since the results of each run can accumulate in the charts 6 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref User mode Interface The interface of the User mode is shown in the image below A B c DI E F G i Quit amp save Select mode Clean output data PENSIONS Run Scenario Run group Description of parameters Quit no save User guide swedish MYNDIGHETEN About Pensionsmodellen SEE
32. ktiva Pensionsskuld tillaggspension aktiva x Y TP pens liability Pensionsskuld ATP pensionerade Pensionsskuld till aggspension pensionerade X Y BALN DXdivINKINDEX Ackumulerad balanstalsprodukt Balansindex inkomstindex x_Y_balance_ratio Balanstal Avaiftstillgang tre rigt medelv rde av buffertfond Pensionsskuld x_Y_PP_vs_income PP som andel av avgiftsunderlaget Premiepensionen som andel av avgiftsunderlaget x Y PP fund Avgiftsnetto PP X Y average pension age Genomsnittlig pensions lder Genomsnittlig pensions lder The average retirement age R_bar x Y pay in duration Intj nandetid Intj nandetid X Y pay out duration Utbetalningstid Utbetalningstiden Pay out duration UT Choose any variable in the list and click the Show in Chart button The variable description is shown in a separate window if you double click on the name Changing a variable is best done when the run is complete Figure 4 To the right of the six charts figure 3 there is a bubble chart showing how the restrictions successively modify the estimation of next year s population so as to meet given targets see chapter The Pension System for more information Note that the bubbles are not visible if you use already calibrated restrictions you have already completed a run with the same starting parameters The x axis shows the total deviation error of the restriction and the y axis the standard deviation of the error The size of the bubble
33. n The population s dimensions are sex sex male 1 female age age 0 120 country of origin origin 1 7 and 498 status groups providing a resolution of 51 288 see Appendix 1 for details of groups and variables The aim 15 as far as possible to mimic the micro models accuracy without coming into conflict with integrity issues The population is simulated year by year using a transition matrix indicating the probabilities of changing from one state to another Example of a transition from one year to the next Year 2014 Year 2015 Starting point Probability State of change of state age 41 born in Sweden Status group 45 2 90 age 41 born in Sweden Status group 56 Woman aged 40 born in Sweden Status group 45 age 41 born in Sweden wt Status group 1 dead age 41 born in Sweden Status group 58 Restrictions Once the transition matrix has been applied we have a preliminary population for the new year The demographics model provides us with important data that we use to correct the preliminary results One example is the number of dead A summation is made of the number of dead in the preliminary calculation This is compared with how many dead there should be goal If the error is larger than allowed the probabilities are adjusted for all rows in the transition matrix that affect the number of dead An adjustment is always followed by a normalization the sum of the probability must always be 1 for one sta
34. n index by level of development for each country More information can be found in the publication Sweden s Future Population 2012 2060 from Statistics Sweden http www scb se Pages Product 14495 aspx The 21 status factors that describe the status groups are IS MARRIED HAS_PGII HAS_SAPGIS HAS SAPGIA HAS_SAPGBS HAS SAPGBA HAS TRANSFER HAS BPGB HAS PGBSTUD IS IN SWE ABROAD IS PARENT 1 15 PARENT 4 RETIREMENT EXTENT IS RETIRED HAS HIGH EDU BEHALLNING DECEASED IS ALIVE BORN IMMIGRATED These are either or 1 except for retirement extent which may have five different values between and 1 Of the 21 status factors it is possible to create 168 840 unique combinations Using data from 2003 2009 it was possible to see that only 498 combinations described 9590 of all data This is the sample used for the calculations in the Pension Model Each gender age and origin group contains 498 data points but since many of these are unreasonable it was possible to reduce storage from 273 million to only 51288 cells The status factors describe Has PGII Estimated earned income Has SAPGIS Income from sickness compensation Has SAPGIA Income from activity compensation Has SAPGBS Pension qualifying amounts from fictive income for those with sickness compensation Has SAPGBA Activity compensation Has transfer Transfers such as parental cash benefit unemployment benefit sickness and activity c
35. ngth Fund strength PP The demographics and pension system has besides Output also the tabs Input input to the model and Internals output variables are defined In addition there is an index worksheet where there are links to all tabs in each workbook S ct 17 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Merging text files Dok bet Version Dnr ref If you want to merge the text files in order to use them for example in a pivot table click the button Manage printed text files Figure 22 PENSIONS Run Scenario Run group Quit amp save MYNDIGHETEN Quit no save Run parallell BEE r clean output aata Vi o Edit scenarios amp groups User guide swedish About Pensionsmodellen About the run Baseline Last run Figure 22 X Midas Pensionssimulering Pensionsmodellen 2015 03 04 All input and output variables that is those beginning with 1_ or x_ that have the same dimensions are merged into a separate text file The button Clear Trans matrices Figure 22 is used to remove probability matrices created for the current scenario In general this is only required if new data has been inserted created The model will recreate the matrices from scratch which means the run will take longer 18 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Developer mode Interface Dok bet Version Dnr ref In Developer mode the
36. ompensation which 59003 1 0 34 37 Dok bet PID123479 Version 1 5 2 Dnr ref 2015 03 13 NE count as pension qualifying income Has PGBSTUD Pension qualifying amounts from studies Has BPGB Pension qualifying amounts from the first 4 years with children Is parent O 1 Parents with children between 0 1 years Is parent O 4 Parents with children between 0 4 years Detailed view of inner workings of the pension system The pension system s inner workings are controlled by a complex regulatory system that includes a large number of variables Figure 35 portrays the general principles upon which the system is based and the tables with their associated variables Inkomstpension next t this Arvsvinster f rdelas 4 1 Arvsvinster samlas in efter statusiverangen IP icome t ATP icome t Figure 17 admin kastnad arvsviriester gt PAR KAPITALET 1 6 terbetalning vid omf byte foregande arsavgifter d da tas bort index de var kvar i t6 som armVsvinst proxy aii ud pn NW E Hjalp variabel allt inkl utb g rs Omfattningsbyten om till kapital nybeviljands for rebalansering E 5 4 E E kapitalet har Pd illampasp kapitalet b ytt gruppe Delningstalger en ny Pension status byte Kvardr amp jande kapital terst r mfattningen av pension Fjolarets pension bi faljsamhetsindexer
37. orresponding forecast alternatives but they are not exactly the same For one thing the model uses a simpler version for the calculation of births and not the parity specific incidence rate used in the Statistics Sweden model The assumptions available in the statistical database at Statistics Sweden do not always show the exact input used in their model Population forecast About the run Main alternative SCB2013 Main alternative SCB2013 Main alternative SCB2013 Main alternative 5 2013 Main alternative SCB2013 Last run 2015 03 04 Figure 24 After starting the pension model one sees the image above Figure 24 On the left under the heading Parameters one may select different alternatives concerning mortality fertility immigration and emigration in the population forecast Above 15 the main alternative from Statistics Sweden s population forecast 2013 It 1s possible to make other choices such as selecting High Mortality according to the Statistics Sweden 2013 forecast and Low Fertility according to the Statistics Sweden 2013 forecast The list of alternatives Figure 25 to choose from regarding for example mortality Survival 15 displayed by clicking on the box to the right of Survival and then clicking on the arrow that appears This produces several forecast alternatives to choose from It is possible to select combinations of assumptions that have not been published by Statistics Sweden 20 37 PID123479 1
38. port Data AY Uspring Yes High SANN Orange rapport xisb OrangeRapport Data Y average pension age Yes High SANN Orange rapport xisb Chart Data Y pay in duration Yes High SANN Orange rapport xisb Chart Data Y pay out duration Yes High SANN Orange rapport xisb Chart Data Y turnover duration Yes High SANN Orange rapport xisb Chart Data Y turnover duration level out Yes High SANN Orange rapport xisb Chart Data Y pension balances Yes High SANN Orange rapport xisb Chart_Data Y tp Yes High SANN Orange rapport visb Chart Data x Y pension credit Yes High SANN Orange rapport xisb Chart Data x Y pens liability active Yes High SANN Orange rapport xisb Chart Data Figure 19 Clicking on the link x Y turnover duration turnover time in figure 19 takes you to the workbook Orange rapport xlsb and the worksheet Orange Report In Figure 20 the variable x Y turnover duration is displayed printed out 59003 1 0 16 37 Dok bet PID123479 Version 1 5 2 Dnr ref 2015 03 13 X Y turnover duration Oms ttningstid 28 78 2920 29 42 29 96 30 09 3025 30 40 Figure 20 Generally you can ignore the first bit of each variable x AY x Y etc It is the last bit of the name of the variable that is most important The first bit indicates the type of variable and the number of dimensions in it O origin S sex A age Y year Most of the variables have a comment and description Below 1s a description of those found in the Out
39. put worksheet Output The results of the population forecast is in Demographic Models tabs Population Born Deceased Immigrants Emigrants and Life Expectancy Some tabs may be hidden but can be displayed by choosing Output in each Workbook and clicking on the desired link see previous page in 01 12 ou 224 2 13 JJ 1yy 21 EICH 43 voy 33 502 43014 40 025 43 VOD ay via JU 80 JU 912 23 1 23 22 UBS 20 221 UI 325 1173 60 934 60 998 60 373 57 620 55 051 51 182 46 993 44 984 44 778 44128 45 526 45 939 47 967 49 812 50 750 50 799 53 048 53 770 54 947 56 083 57 3 221 57 009 60 752 60 793 60 172 57 437 54 885 51040 46 878 44 882 44 678 44 032 45 423 45 833 47 849 49 683 50615 50 665 52 905 53 617 54 790 555 832 55 031 56 813 60 508 60 549 59 934 57 217 731 44 749 44 547 43 906 45 288 45 697 47 699 49 521 50 448 50 500 52 720 53 432 545 538 50 655 54 830 56 578 60 248 60 289 59 678 672 46 569 44 602 44 402 43 766 45 139 45 545 47 534 49 343 50 267 50 316 52 522 532 1936 49 373 50 488 54 610 56 346 59 990 60 051 59 424 56 746 54247 50 484 46 411 44 459 44 261 43 631 44 904 45 398 47373 49 171 50 085 50 156 523 j 461 47796 49230 50 314 54 408 56 132 59 751 59 791 59 188 56529 54048 50311 46268 44330 44134 43510 44864 45266 47229 49012 49921 495 L429 45348 47674 49 50 153 54 221 55934 59 528 59 567 58 968 56 327 53864 50153 46137 44214 44020 43401 44746 45145 47097 48870 497 59 364 58 769 56 146 53 698 50012 46023
40. re are several tabs functions and buttons available in addition to those found in Advanced Mode DO D Select mode Clean output data Description of parameters User guide swedish Protection amp Clesn Trans 4 P About Pensionsmodellen Manage textfil D PENSIONS Run Scenario Run group Quit amp save MYNDIGHETEN Quit no save Run parallell len Run demography only I Clean output data v1 5 Edit scenarios amp groups About the run Current folder es output Fan WA IG ene Inst llningar X MidasS Pensionssimulering Pensionsmodellen Last run Figure 23 Developer mode 15 intended for developers 19 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref Demographics The population forecast is constructed in the same way as in the model that Statistics Sweden uses for the preparation of the official population forecast The source code of Statistics Sweden s program is not available but the model has been developed using the documentation found in the publication The Future Population of Sweden 2012 2060 Statistics Sweden The Future Population of Sweden 2012 2060 ISBN 978 91 618 1564 7 pages 177 179 Assumptions etc are partly taken from the Statistical Database at Statistics Sweden The results of the runs are close to the forecast results that Statistics Sweden has reported when using c
41. rt a number of Slave models The Slave models constantly check the queue to see if a task must be performed Click on the button Run in parallel to create parallel tasks PENSIONS Run Scenario Run group MYNDIGHETEN Run parallell Pensionsmodellen IR RnB nds v1 5 1 Edit scenarios amp groups Figure 15 In the dialogue box that opens select the group and one or more scenarios Click on the Add to tasks button in order to save the task Normally the task is not directed to any particular Slave but it is possible to achieve this by selecting the desired Slave before clicking on Add to tasks In the box Max number of slaves you can indicate how many Slaves you wish to have in total It is not possible to have more Slaves than the number of the computer s processor cores Select one group Select one scenari Select All D Bas BaseLine See WE socDep1 Low LowAlt Append tasks 2 High HighAlt socDep3 BasPAFMain BasPAFMain socDep3Katastrof BasPAFMairiTest BasP FMainTest Clear Show tasklist Show network resources Show Computers Figure 16 Master Slave the Master model creates a task queue while the Slave models execute these tasks or wait for new tasks to be added to the queue 13 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref If you want to start a parallel operation click on Run all The Clear
42. s not open See the section Advanced mode for more information 7 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref Scenario and Group To select a scenario click the button Select Scenario amp Group Figure 7 A B E DIE G PENSIONS Run Scenario Run group Quit amp save TUUS ERR ESE Select mode Clean output data MYNDIGHETEN Quit no save User guide swedish About Pensionsmodellen Pensionsmodellen v1 5 1 Clean output data About the run Current folder X MidasS Pensionssimulering Pensionsmodellen BaseLine Last run Figure 7 Group amp Scenario J 23 Choose group roupi Bas BaseLine Low LowAlt High HighAlt BasPAFMain BasPAFMain BasP AFMainTest BasPAFMainTest Close Figure 8 Choose a scenario by selecting the scenario name A new set of parameters is always saved automatically with the name My scenario in User mode The parameters used for the three scenarios in the Orange Report are entitled Base Low and High where Low is the pessimistic alternative and High the optimistic one See the section Advanced mode for more information about scenario management 8 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Description of parameters and variables Dok bet Version Dnr ref All descriptions of the parameters and variables used in the model are in the file Main xlsm und
43. start the model by opening the file Main xlsm which 15 located in the folder Pensionsmodellen_filer Depending on your security settings you may need to activate the content In that case a security warning appears as below which you remove by clicking on Activate Content Security Warning Some active content has been disabled Click for more details Enable 3 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref Starting the Pension Model Close all open versions of Excel before opening the model an alternative is to open a new Excel session The Pension Model is started by opening Main xlsm The first time you use the model you must accept the user agreement that appears on the screen Figure 1 Agreement New features in Pensionsmodellen Version 1 5 1 1 Snabbare hantering av utskrivna textfiler 2 Uppdaterad demografi 3 Diverse bugafix Pensionsmodellen E H Click on To Main to run the Terms of use The Swedish Pensions Agency offers you to use this pension model The purpose of the model is to m od el show the long term consequences of the assumptions made The results of the calculations are always based on the input values entered by the individual user The model may not in any part be used for commercial purposes without permission from the Swedish Pensions Agency Figure 1 Start the model by clicking on To Main There are three d
44. stment of index on changed amount during year due to norm reducing disbursement index inkomstpension ATP PP index How much balance changes due to indexation premium pension PP index d Adjustment of index on changed amount during year due to norm reducing disbursement index inkomstpension premium pension inkomstpension x OSAY ATP contribution prev Previous year s pension credit ATP pension inkomstpension X OSAY ATP contribution t Current year s pension credit ATP pension Number of persons with pension credit inkomstpension premium pension Number of persons with active pension liability ATP x AY cnt IP active liability Number of persons with active inkomstpension liability x AY cnt total pensions Number of persons with pension disbursements x AY cnt IP pensions Number of persons with disbursement from inkomstpension
45. t Right click the correct cell that is the cell that will contain the parameter value 1 Select Add input list 2 Inthe box that opens select the cells that contain the parameter s value alternatives Figure 28 3 This creates a so called data validation and the cell acts like a drop down list jndata 9 miim Select cells cells must be from same workbook Figure 28 To delete a drop down list right click the cell and then select Remove Input List Answer Yes to the confirmation request that pops up To delete a parameter select the parameter name in the Settings worksheet and then click the button Remove Inputlist Note that the parameter is deleted from all scenarios in all groups A parameter can be added to a scenario or to all scenarios in the same group by clicking the Manage parameters button in the Settings worksheet Figure 29 Add Remove parameter x Select Mention parameter Valu ter av parame mm Close Default value of parameter eS Select scenario blank All Figure 29 25 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref Demographics Own assumptions in the forecast Assumptions about future immigration fertility migration and mortality are stored in four separate tabs Each worksheet can be reached most easily from the Navigation Table by selecting DemographicModel xlsb input Figure 2 Links to the four types of ass
46. task list button is used to delete the task of the selected slave The folder where the parallel processing files are located named Slave serial number must be deleted in Windows Explorer in order to recreate the slave or remove old slave runs All variables written to a file they have the property Location set to File as indicated in the worksheet Output or Output developer in pensionssystem xlsb will be printed out in a parallel execution Technically this means that for each Slave a separate folder for example Slavel is created which is a virtual copy of the Master folder The file Main xlsm runs as a Slave with all chart animations turned off in order to speed up execution The button Clear task list Figure 16 clears all tasks in the model The button Show task list Figure 16 gives you an overview of the tasks you have created Figure 17 PMD11290 Slave Group Bas Baseline dl FinishedSuccess 2015 03 03 11 30 26 d Low LowAlt FinishedSuccess 2015 03 03 11 30 44 PMD 11290 Slave3 Group1 High HighAlt 2100 FinishedSuccess 2015 03 03 11 31 19 PMD 11290 Slave4 Group1 BasPAFMain BasPAFMain 2100 FinishedSuccess 2015 03 03 11 31 35 Figure 17 14 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 15 37 Dok bet PID123479 Version 1 5 2 Dnr ref 2015 03 13 Navigation seeing the results Output from the run is controlled by information in the Output worksheet Both the demographics
47. te A new calculation is then made and this procedure is repeated until the discrepancy falls within the margin of error You can follow how the restrictions are more and more closely met for each iteration in the right hand graph of the Chart worksheet in the Main workbook 23 37 PID123479 1 5 2 2015 03 13 59003 1 0 Dok bet Version Dnr ref Currently there are seven restrictions 1 Have Pension Emigration Dead 2 3 4 Second 5 Second Immig2 6 Parents 7 PGllratio Restrictions conflict with each other When we have reached for example a number of dead and apply the five remaining restrictions it is not at all certain that the number of dead will still be adequate because the other restrictions have affected the probabilities relevant to the number of dead This means that the last restriction will be met but the results for the previous ones will have changed to greater or less degree To reduce the problem for the restrictions made early on sequencing is important For example the restriction Have Pension requires many adjustments iterations so it makes sense to place it first and thus avoid having it totally re adjust all preceding restrictions Another way is to impose limits on how much the probabilities may be adjusted Adjustments are made in five stages In the first stage rough adjustment we allow large adjustments and also a large error In the next stage we allow rather fewer adjustm
48. umptions will then appear By selecting a particular Link you come to the worksheet where all assumptions are collected together Figure 30 Input and intermediate variables Link Name Read Keep Location Worksheet Path RangeNai Yes FALSK Thisworkbook Immigration D6 Yes FALSK Thisworkbook FertilityRates C5 Yes FALSK Thisworkbook MortalityRates C5 bh Yes FALSK Thisworkbook EmigrationRates D6 Yes FALSK Thisworkbook InitialPopulationinsweden D5 i SY Born Proj2010 Yes SANN Thisworkbook foddaproj2010 B5 i OSAY Immigrants Proj2010 Yes SANN Thisworkbook 2010 D5 i OSAY Emigrants Proj2010 Yes SANN Thisworkbook projUtv2010 D5 i OSAY Deceased Proj2010 Yes SANN Thisworkbook projDod2010 D5 i OSAY Population Proj2010 Yes SANN Thisworkbook folkm2010 2110 D5 gt Yes SANN Thisworkbook Histqx D5 Figure 30 It is possible to make one s own assumptions but in that case it is important to retain the same format as the existing assumptions The easiest way 1s to copy an existing alternative and paste it in with a blank line to earlier data All values of ORIGIN SEX AGE and YEAR must be included in the table the mortality assumption is not divided up according to ORIGIN For example in the case of Immigration assumptions the first row must begin with the word Immigration followed by an explanation in column B of which assumption 15 intended This explanatory text then appears among the alternatives that can be selected Figur
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