User Manual - University Transportation Center for Mobility (UTCM)
Contents
1. 205 542 40 82 217 123 325 205 542 584 354 1 095 664 1 680 018 2019 3 796 211 708 4096 84 683 127 025 211 708 616 932 1 156 747 1 773 679 109 030 218 059 814 157 1 017 696 1 831 853 2021 3 6 224 601 50 112 301 112 301 224 601 859 546 1 074 433 1 933 979 2022 3 596 231 339 115 670 115 670 231 339 907 466 1 134 333 2 041 799 2023 3 496 238 279 119 140 119 140 238 279 958 057 1 197 572 2 155 629 245 428 122 714 245 428 1 011 469 1 264 336 2 275 805 lt ale e o io Figure 8 3 Traffic and Revenue for Trucks 30 9 Summary Graphs The projected results for the annual traffic annual transactions and annual revenue are presented by graphs to understand how the various estimates change over time The graphs are generated automatically based on the results of the Toll Revenue Estimation Model The graphs are divided into three groups e totals for all vehicles e information for autos only e information for trucks only Figure 9 1 shows an example of the types of graphs available with the Toll Revenue Estimation Model The graphs presented in Figure 9 1relate to autos only 31 These graphs illustrate Annual Traffic Annual Transactions and Annual Revenues for SECTION 1 Annual Traffic Estimates for Autos 2050 2060 2070 Tolled ADT Projections 2 E E c Annual Revenue Estimates for Autos Annual Revenue2. 6 049728 70 224601 2022 2023 Figure 7 1 Annual Transactions 7 1 1 Year of Opening The year of opening is the year the project is expected to be operational taken from the Project Characteristics worksheet For instance the hypothetical project will begin full operations in 2015 The Toll Revenue Estimation Model assumes a full calendar year of operation for the starting year 7 1 2 Cost of Each Transaction This factor reflects the cost of each transaction using ETC technology In the example this cost is 0 085 per transaction 7 1 3 Organization of Table The Annual Transactional Costs table presents data similar to that shown on previous worksheets The one exception is that the numbers of annual transactions are presented rather they traffic volumes The columns shown in the summary table include e Year Number e Calendar Year e Auto Transactions e Percentage of ETC Transactions for Autos e Truck Transactions e Percentage of ETC Transactions for Trucks 26 As with other tables and worksheets a Comment field is provided for the user to include any notes or explanation of for future reference 7 2 Annual Operations Cost Table The second table see Figure 7 2 on the Operations and Maintenance worksheet addresses assumed annual operational cost of the toll road The table accounts for items that may not be included in the transaction cost entered in the Annual Transactional Cost table see Section 7
3. 8 72 Reproduction of completed page authorized An Early Stage Toll Revenue Estimation Model A User s Guide by Curtis Beaty Associate Research Engineer Texas Transportation Institute Texas A amp M University Henry Lieu Graduate Research Assistant Texas Transportation Institute Texas A amp M University Projects 09 22 02 University Transportation Center for Mobility Texas Transportation Institute The Texas A amp M University System College Station Texas 77843 3135 DISCLAIMER The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors who are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the information presented herein This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U S Department of Transportation s University Transportation Centers Program in the interest of information exchange The U S Government assumes no liability for the contents or use thereof IMPORTANT NOTE TO USERS Execution of this model requires the purchase and installation of the 2007 or later version of Microsoft Excel any earlier version may not properly execute the model Therefore please upgrade the version of Microsoft Excel if necessary No other add on is required to use the model More information related to Microsoft Excel can be obtained from the following website http office microsoft com Table of Contents 1 PTFOCU CHO c 5 2 Objective of the Research e ceret inten oen ie eene ete eae R
4. Figure 9 1 Graphs for Total Traffic 32 10 Analysis of Results There are three tables in the Analysis of Results worksheet one for combined autos and trucks one for autos only and one for trucks only Since the content and layout of the tables are similar the discussion in this section of the user guide will only focus on the one providing information on autos as illustrated in Figure 10 1 Analysis of Results Section 1 1 6 256 958 5 321 342 7 192 575 2 7 696 059 5 6 545 251 8 846 867 3 9 318 244 5 7 924 867 95 10 711 621 9096 4 11 143 066 9 476 820 12 809 313 5 11 992 725 10 199 427 13 786 023 6 12 613 826 10 727 653 14 499 998 7 13 575 630 11 545 637 15 605 623 8 14 610 772 12 425 992 95 16 795 552 90 9 15 724 843 13 373 474 95 18 076 213 10 16 923 862 14 393 201 19 454 524 EET TT aes goa L a8 2082 58 470 ts 96 931 684 5 82 449 479 9596 111 413 889 90 49 2063 58 470 s 99 354 976 5 84 510 716 95 114 199 236 90 50 2064 58 470 s 101 838 850 5 g 86 623 483 9596 117 054 217 90 Average 41 106 IE 47 213 896 40 156 401 54 271 392 TOTAL 2 055 282 2 360 694 823 2 007 820 030 2 713 569 616 Figure 10 1 Analysis of Results for Autos The table contains the following columns e Year Number e Calendar Year e Traffic Estimates e Toll
5. 12 and three quarters miles 4 1 9 Total Number of Lanes This field is the total number of tolled lanes that comprise the project For the example a four lane project over a 12 mile length is studied The current model does not support variable lane designs e g two lanes for x miles and then four lanes for y miles To examine such a configuration the user can divide the project into two sections within the Toll Revenue Estimation Model where one section is a two lane toll road for x miles and the second section would be the four lane toll road for y miles The number of tolled lanes is used in determining the maximum amount of traffic that that the toll facility can carry i e the toll road capacity 4 1 10 Project Type This field describes the type of project that is being studied The user selects one of the five options given by the drop down list local rural local urban regional rural regional urban and e loop In the example the option local urban is selected This item is used to summarize the project characteristics but does not impact the traffic and revenue forecasts 4 1 11 Existing Typical Section This field relates to the typical section of the existing facility The user has the following six choices from a pull down selection to describe the existing typical section of the roadway 14 e two lane undivided e four lane divided e four lane undivided e Six lane divided e e
6. 4 percent of the total traffic The Toll Revenue Estimation Model automatically calculates the percentage of trucks by subtracting the percent of auto traffic from 100 percent That is why the data field is shaded white instead of yellow 4 2 6 Mean Growth Rate of Auto Traffic Years 1 10 The Toll Revenue Estimation Model uses the minimum maximum and mode or mean and standard deviation of the traffic demand curves to compute future traffic estimates based on the opening year traffic demand and the annual mean growth rates of the traffic This field is the anticipated mean growth rate of the auto traffic from year 1 to year 10 It is assumed that the growth rate is constant over this period of time In the example auto traffic is expected to grow by 5 percent from year 1 to year 10 The user should also enter growth rates for the following time periods e Mean Growth Rate of Auto Traffic Years 11 20 e Mean Growth Rate of Auto Traffic Years 21 30 e Mean Growth Rate of Auto Traffic Years 31 40 e Mean Growth Rate of Auto Traffic Years 41 50 4 2 7 Mean Growth Rate of Truck Traffic Years 1 10 This field is the anticipated mean growth rate of truck traffic from year 1 to year 10 It is assumed that the growth rate is constant over this period of time For instance in the example truck traffic is expected to grow by 3 percent from year 1 to year 10 The user should also enter growth rates for the following time periods e Mean
7. AE dba a etia Coe eed E e ERE cede 36 List of Figures NOTE Color figures in this report may not be legible if printed in black and white A color PDF copy of this report may be accessed via the UTCM website at http utcm tamu edu the Texas Transportation Institute website at http tti tamu edu or the Transportation Research Board s TRID database at http trid trb org Figure 3 1 Security Warming Regarding Macros ccccssccccssssececessnececeesaeeecseaeeecsesaeeeeseaaeeeeseaaeeeeseaueeeenaas 6 Figure 3 2 Security Alert to Enable Disable Macros sees 7 Figure 3 3 Worksheet Modules at the Opening of the Model essere 7 Figure 3 4 Introductory Worksheet Screen ccccessessaececececesseaeaeeeeecesseseaeaeeececessueuaeaeeeessesesssaaeaeeeeseesees 8 Figure 3 5 Number of Projects Studied esses eene nn nnns isse n tiran nass nnn 8 Figure 3 6 Menu Study of One Section cccccccccessssesssseeececesseseceaeeeeecesseesaeaeeeescesseseaaeseeeeseesseseaeaeesesens 9 Figure 3 7 Menu Study of Three Sections esses ener enne ti nnnn asas esent rasan asses 10 Figure 3 8 Yellow cells indicate the user may input values eese nnnm 11 Figure 3 9 Access Denied to Protected Cell eee nnne nennen enne nena nnns nnns 11 Figure 3 10 Worksheet Navigation Aids cccccccccesssssssssecececessesseaesececscessecaeaesececssseuaeaeeeeseusseseaeaeee
8. Characteristics option from the Menu worksheet The Project Characteristics worksheet groups the general characteristics and basic data required by the Toll Revenue Estimation Model for the project to be studied The worksheet is divided into three main sections that the user completes as inputs to the Toll Revenue Estimation Model General Facility Data Traffic Data and Toll Data 4 1 General Facility Data Inputs The first main section of the Project Characteristics worksheet is the General Facility Data Inputs Both data entry fields and drop down lists are used to collect the basic information on the proposed toll road Some of the data are used as descriptive information to summarize the characteristics of the facility Other data entries are necessary to estimate future traffic transactions and revenues for each year of the study period Again a hypothetical project consisting of a single section phase is presented in the following figures to illustrate the data inputs and operational aspects of the Toll Revenue Estimation Model Figure 4 1 shows the general facility data inputs for the example projects The individual data elements are discussed in the following sections of the user guide Note that in Figure 4 1 there is a button titled Click Here to Clear General Inputs By clicking on this button a macro will run where all of the previously entered data if any are cleared from the yellow cells 12 General Facility Data
9. Excel Macros with VBA 2nd edition O Reilly Media Inc 2002 Spiegelman C Transportation Statistics and Microsimulation 1st edition Chapman amp Hall CRC 2010 36 University Transportation Center for Mobility Texas Transportation Institute The Texas A amp M University System College Station TX 77843 3135 Tel 979 845 2538 Fax 979 845 9761 utcm tamu edu sA Texas 488 Transportation All institute
10. Revenue Estimates e Confidence Intervals for the resulting revenue forecasts 10 1 Traffic Estimates As seen in Figure 10 1 the estimated AADT for each year is presented In addition to the most likely values that are used in the Toll Revenue Estimation Model up to this point the possible minimum and maximum values are presented These upper and lower limits are determined from the type of traffic distribution selected on the Project Characteristic worksheet as well as the minimum maximum mode mean and or standard deviation values chosen Because the minimum and maximum calculations are based on input values provided by the user the results on not absolute i e it is still theoretically possible that actual traffic volumes on the toll road could fall below or above the limits presented in the table Ramp up assumptions are included in the estimated traffic volumes 10 2 Toll Revenue Estimates The revenue estimates shown on the Analysis worksheet take the three traffic volumes minimum most likely and maximum and calculates the resulting toll revenue for each scenario The revenue 33 estimates take into consideration ETC toll tag penetration assumptions video toll surcharges and toll rate escalation 10 3 Confidence Interval This section of the table provides an analysis that determines a confidence interval for the revenue estimate in each of the future years A confidence interval is used to indicate t
11. can be for instance a crash or construction 4 2 2 Level of Service for Constrained Traffic If the option constrained is selected for the type of traffic the anticipated level of service should be selected by the user 4 2 3 Total Traffic AADT at Opening Year This field relates to the average daily traffic AADT of autos and trucks combined during the first year of the project If the normal distribution is used the user is expected to enter the mean and standard deviation of the traffic distribution For instance the mean is equal to 19 000 and the standard deviation is 1 200 If the triangular distribution is used the user is expected to enter the minimum value the mode value and the maximum value The values of these fields should respect the following constraint minimum lt mean lt maximum and minimum lt mode lt maximum The mode can be higher or lower than the mean 17 For this example these are equal to 12 000 19 000 and 21 000 respectively when the triangular distribution is selected 4 2 4 Mean Percentage of Auto Traffic Opening Year 9o AADT This field indicates the share of traffic that derived from autos during the first year of the toll road For the example autos represent 96 percent of the total traffic 4 2 5 Mean Percentage of Truck Traffic Opening Year 9o AADT This field indicates the percentage of traffic that is assumed be trucks when the toll road opens For the example trucks represent
12. to build or expand highway projects without increasing motor fuel taxes For one reason only those that use the toll road pay for its costs Note this opinion is more theoretical and not always true due to the complex financing methods and guarantees required to obtain the necessary capital to construct he facility Another reason for toll road interest is the fact that the anticipated revenues from the future project can be used to attract other investors to put in money and accept some financial risk in exchange for those toll revenues This is commonly referred to as public private partnerships But before a government or other agency considers a toll road project they need to assess the economic viability of proposed construction by examining the potential traffic and revenue that can be generated by the project This project developed a Toll Revenue Estimation Model to examine future toll revenue streams over a predefined study period The design of this spreadsheet based model gives the user ample freedom to consider various critical fields for the computation of the traffic volumes and annual toll revenues for a toll road project The Toll Revenue Estimation Model then examines the probability of the revenue stream based on the inputs and choices selected by the user 2 Objective of the Research The objective of this research is to develop an Excel based spreadsheet model that generates revenues estimates for proposed toll roads This sprea
13. 0 1 905 664 6 352 214 9 513 991 5 096 781 14 610 772 6 669 825 4 668 877 2 000 947 6 669 825 10 239 433 5 485 410 15 724 843 7 003 316 4 902 321 16 923 862 Figure 8 2 Transactions and Revenue for Autos 8 2 1 Table Information Autos and Trucks The second and third tables on the Transaction and Revenue worksheet contain an annual summary for autos and trucks for the toll road under study The tables contain the following columns e Year Number e Calendar Year e Percentage of Total Traffic e Annual Traffic e Percentage of Transactions attributed to ETC e Annual Transactions attributed to ETC e Percentage of Transactions attributed to Video Tolling e Annual Transactions attributed to Video Tolling e Total Annual Transactions e Revenues from ETC e Revenues from Video Tolling e Total Gross Revenues for Autos e Transactions and Revenue for Trucks The organization of the annual transactions and revenue for trucks as shown in Figure 8 3 is similar to the table for autos TRANSACTIONS amp REVENUE FOR Section 1 Year ANNUAL TRAFFIC ANNUAL TRANSACTIONS ANNUAL GROSS REVENUE o Year ofTotal Veh Trucks ETC ETC VIDEO TOTAL ETC VIDEO TOTAL 2015 4 096 131 670 4096 52 668 79 002 131 670 347 609 651 767 999 375 2016 3 996 154 994 40 61 998 92 997 154 994 419 415 786 403 1 205 818 2017 3 996 179 600 40 71 840 107 760 179 600 498 147 934 025 1 432 172 2018 389
14. 1 1 Table Information The first table on the Transaction and Revenue worksheet contains an annual summary for both autos and trucks for the toll road being examined The table contains the following columns e Year Number e Calendar Year e Annual Traffic e Annual Toll Transactions e Annual Toll Revenue e Operations Costs includes transaction and other operational costs e Maintenance Costs e Net Annual Revenue Toll revenue minus operational and maintenance costs 8 2 Transactions and Revenue for Autos and Trucks Following the table summarizing total annual transactions and revenues two tables are presented that show transactions and revenues for auto and trucks separately Figure 8 2 shows the summary table for auto only values on an annual basis The table is composed of four major columns year annual traffic annual transactions and annual gross revenues 29 TRANSACTIONS amp REVENUE FOR Section 1 3 160 080 1 896 048 1 264 032 3 160 080 53412886 2 844 072 6 256 958 3 792 096 2 275 258 1 516 838 3 792 096 4 197 850 3 498 209 7 696 059 4 479 413 2 687 648 1 794 765 4479413 5 082 678 4235565 9 318 244 5 225 982 3 135 589 2 090 393 5 225 982 6 078 036 5 065 030 11 143 066 5 487 281 3 292 369 2 194 913 6 541 487 5 451 239 11 992 725 5 761 645 4 033 152 1 728 494 5 761 645 8 213 654 4 400 172 12 613 826 6 049 728 4 234 809 1 814 918 6 049 728 8 839 945 4 735 685 13 575 630 6 352 214 4 446 55
15. 1 2 Cost of Each Transaction Annual Operations Cost Section 1 Year of Opening 2015 Enter the Annual Operations Cost in the yellow cell if items are not already included in the individual transaction costs Use total costs and NOT per mile Year No Year Annual Operations Cost 400 000 410 000 420 250 430 756 5441 525 452 563 463 877 475 474 487 361 499 545 w o IN o uo oo N m o Figure 7 2 Annual Operations Cost 7 2 1 Year of Opening The year of opening is the year the project is expected to be operational taken from the Project Characteristics worksheet For instance the hypothetical project will begin full operations in 2015 The Toll Revenue Estimation Model assumes a full calendar year of operation for the starting year 7 2 2 Annual Operations Cost These fields reflect the annual operational costs associated with the toll road beyond what is included in the transactional costs Items such as annual marketing courtesy patrols and similar organizational costs associated with this toll facility can be included if this user desires The dollar amount entered for each year should be a total annual cost for the entire section of the toll road and not presented on a per mile basis The table is set up so that the user can enter an annual cost for operations in the first year then the remaining years are populated by applying the annual inflation rate to the initial value The user can override an
16. AADT ANNUAL REVENUE YearNo Year Most Likely Most Likely 27 65 555 31 131 709 25 848 601 27 871 962 37 269 631 30 063 837 40 153 606 32 439 180 43 272 457 I 74 120 40 830 378 35 014 359 9596 46 646 397 Figure 12 1 Analysis of Combined Results from Multiple Sections 13 Conclusion The Toll Revenue Estimation Model and this user s guide present a simulation based model to aid in assessing the viability of a proposed toll road from a revenue perspective The model presented allows a user to experiment with various assumptions and data values to identify the possible resulting revenues over the course of 50 years The Toll Revenue Estimation Model also migrates previous toll viability models to an Excel only environment that does not require third party add ons The Toll Revenue Estimation Model permits the user to incorporate some perceived risk and uncertainty based upon the ranges of estimates of the key input fields The subsequent analysis translates those values into a range of possible results This can be of great benefit in that a given project can be more easily evaluated in terms of its potential to generate sufficient revenues to proceed with more detailed analysis required to support the financing and subsequent construction of the project 35 14 Bibliography Eschenbach T Engineering Economy Applying Theory to Practice 2nd edition Oxford University Press 2003 Roman S Writing
17. DOT Grant No DTRT06 G 0044 Early Stage Toll Revenue Estimation Model User Manual Curtis Beaty and Henry Lieu Performing Organization University Transportation Center for Mobility Texas Transportation Institute The Texas A amp M University System College Station TX Sponsoring Agency Department of Transportation Research and Innovative Technology Administration Washington DC Texas ti UTCM Project 09 22 02 MMM institute May 2012 Technical Report Documentation Page 1 Report No 2 Government Accession No 3 Recipient s Catalog No UTCM 09 22 02 4 Title and Subtitle 5 Report Date Development of an Early Stage Toll Revenue Estimation Model 6 Performing Organization Code 7 Author s 8 Performing Organization Report No Curtis Beaty and Henry Lieu 9 Performing Organization Name and Address 10 Work Unit No TRAIS University Transportation Center for Mobility Texas Transportation Institute 11 Contract or Grant No The Texas A amp M University System 3135 TAMU DTRT06 G 0044 College Station TX 77843 3135 12 Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13 Type of Report and Period Covered Department of Transportation Final Report Research and Innovative Technology Administration January 2009 September 2009 400 7 Street SW 14 Sponsoring Agency Code Washington DC 20590 15 Supplementary Notes Supported by a grant from the US Department of Transportation University Transportation Centers Progr
18. Growth Rate of Truck Traffic Years 11 20 e Mean Growth Rate of Truck Traffic Years 21 30 e Mean Growth Rate of Truck Traffic Years 31 40 e Mean Growth Rate of Truck Traffic Years 41 50 4 2 8 Comments The user can use this field to leave notes or explanations that clarify the choice of the input values within the Traffic Data portion of the Project Characteristics worksheet 4 3 Toll Data Input The third part of the Project Characteristics worksheet is reserved for Toll Data Inputs It is found by scrolling down the worksheet to find the table represented in Figure 4 4 The data inputs required for this portion of the Project Characteristics worksheet is described in the following section of the user guide 18 Toll Data Inputs Section 1 Mean Toll Revenue Days Days per Year Time Period between Manually Adjusted Toll Rates Years Toll Rate for Autos at Opening Year per Mile Toll Rate for Trucks at Opening Year per Mile Video Tolling Premium A factor applied to the base toll rate to recoup the additional costs associated with the back office administration of video tolling typically revenue nuetral Ramp Up Factors Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year4 Year 5 ETC Penetration Rate for Autos Years 1 5 Years 6 10 Years 11 20 Years 21 35 Years 36 50 ETC Penetration Rate for Trucks Years 1 5 Years 6 10 Years 11 20 Years 21 35 Years 36 50 Figure 4 3 Toll Data Input 4 3 1 Mean Toll Revenu
19. Inputs Section 1 Facility Name Project ID County Opening Year Origin Destination Length of Tolled Facility Miles Total Number of Lanes Both Directions Existing Typical Section 4 lane undivided Tolled Typical Section 6 lane divided Frontage Roads Continuous Classification State Highway Ojo po ala Current Statewide Mobility Plan SMP Priority Plan Max ADT per Lane Inflation Rate Figure 4 1 General Facility Data Inputs 4 1 1 Facility Name The project s name specified by the user is entered as a text field For the example the name of the hypothetical project is Northwest Toll Road 4 1 2 Project ID This field is the identity number or code for the project or the particular section of toll road being examined Data is entered as a text value The identification ID of the hypothetical project is SH 345 If the project does not have any identity number or code then this cell may be left blank 4 1 3 District Region This field is the name of the government district or region where the toll road project is located This data is entered as a text value The district name of the hypothetical project is 12 If the project is not located in a district or region with a predetermined name then this cell may be left blank 4 1 4 County This field is the name of the county where the toll road project is located The name of the county for the hypothetical project is
20. Taylor If the toll road project crosses multiples counties the user can write the list of counties separated by a sign because this item is a text field 13 4 1 5 Opening Year This field is the year the project is expected to be operational For instance the hypothetical project will begin full operation in 2015 The model assumes a full calendar year of operation for the starting year 4 1 6 Origin This field is the name of the origin point of the toll road project If this field is not relevant for the user this cell can be left blank The origin of the hypothetical project is CSJ 123 45 6789 An intersection Cross street or some other designator may also be used 4 1 7 Destination This field is the name of the destination point of the toll road project If this field is not relevant for the user this cell can be left blank The destination of the hypothetical project is CSJ 987 65 4321 Again other landmarks or references may be used to designation the determination point of the toll road being examined 4 1 8 Length of Tolled Facility This field relates to the centerline length of the toll road It is assumed that the toll road will be constructed as one contiguous effort for the specific section being examined The examples project s length is 12 miles This variable will be used in the calculation of toll revenues This is a numeric field and accepts fractions of a mile as decimal number e g 12 75 would represent
21. acros have been disabled Macros might contain viruses or other security hazards Do not enable this content unless you trust the source of this file Warning It is not possible to determine that this content came from a trustworthy source You should leave this content disabled unless the content provides critical functionality and you trust its source More information File Path E Project Feasibility Tool July 24 xlsm Help protect me from unknown content recommended D Enable this content Open the Trust Center Figure 3 2 Security Alert to Enable Disable Macros By default the option Help protect me from unknown content recommended is checked Selecting Enable this content is necessary to use the Toll Revenue Estimation Model 3 2 General Organization by Worksheets The Toll Revenue Estimation Model is organized into multiple worksheets within a single file When the spreadsheet if first opened only two worksheets are visible Introduction and Menu see Figure 3 3 Introduction Menu Figure 3 3 Worksheet Modules at the Opening of the Model 3 2 1 Introduction Worksheet The Introduction tab Figure 3 4 provides the name of the model the organization that was in charge of its development and the copyright and legal terms that protect the model At the bottom of the screen is a button in the shape of an arrow with the words Click to begin which permits navigation to the Menu worksh
22. am 16 Abstract With agencies and states increasingly considering tolls as a means to finance transportation infrastructure there is an increasing need to quickly assess the feasibility of potential tolling projects In the early stages of a project when an agency either public or private merely wants to see the possibility of future traffic and tolled revenues there still exists a need for a tool to capture basic assumptions and perform preliminary forecasting calculations to see if a project even warrants further examination as a toll road Both as an early screening tool and as a continuing reasonableness test this early stage toll revenue estimation model will allow a user to simultaneously examine the interaction of multiple tolling variables and traffic scenarios so that agencies can make more informed decisions The authors develop a stand alone spreadsheet based model that prepares early stage traffic and toll revenue estimates The model allows users to examine a potential tolled project as a single phase or multiple phases up to three then examine the results individually or cumulatively 17 Key Word 18 Distribution Statement Toll Roads Tolls Infrastructure Financing Screening Public distribution Programs Revenue Generation Toll Revenues Texas Research Projects 19 Security Classif of this report 20 Security Classif of this page 21 No of Pages 22 Price Unclassified Unclassified 50 n a Form DOT F 1700 7
23. ar No This column goes from 1 to 50 representing the number of years in the study period with 1 being assigned to the opening year 2 to the following year etc 6 1 4 2 Year of Toll Rate This column represent the calendar year from the opening year to 50 years after the opening year In the example the calendar goes from 2015 to 2064 6 1 4 3 Auto Toll Rate The Toll Revenue Estimation Model will initially take the base toll rate and inflation rate defined on the Project Characteristics worksheet and calculate the per mile annual toll rate for each year of the study period If it is desired by the user to do so the toll rate can be adjusted every five years by an amount greater than the basic inflation rate Only the cells with a pale yellow background can be modified by the user 6 1 4 4 Truck Toll Rate The Toll Revenue Estimation Model will initially take the base toll rate and inflation rate defined on the Project Characteristics worksheet and calculate the per mile annual toll rate for each year of the study period If it is desired by the user to do so the toll rate can be adjusted every five years by an amount greater than the basic inflation rate Only the cells with a pale yellow background can be modified by the user 6 1 4 5 Average Toll Rate These fields provide the average toll rate over a 50 year period of time for both autos and trucks These averages are for informational purposes only and are not used in the calculation of t
24. are trying to change is protected and therefore read only To modify a protected cell or chart first remove protection using the Unprotect Sheet command Review tab Changes group You may be prompted for a password Cx Figure 3 9 Access Denied to Protected Cell At the bottom of every worksheet are navigation options to aid the user in maneuvering through the various worksheets These navigation options are shown in Figure 3 10 and allow the user to quickly move through the Toll Revenue Estimation Model BACK TO MENU Figure 3 10 Worksheet Navigation Aids The Go to Top arrow takes the user to the top of the current worksheet When the user is done with a worksheet he or she clicks the Back to Menu button to go back to the Menu and select the next topic area or worksheet to complete When the Back to Menu button is selected the tab for the current worksheet disappears from the tab bar at the bottom of the spreadsheet Because there are more than 25 worksheets that make up the Toll Revenue Estimation Model this feature of temporarily hiding worksheets prevents the tab bar from becoming too long and requiring excessive scrolling to find the desired worksheet When the user wants to make any changes to or review a worksheet the user clicks the appropriate button on the Menu and the worksheet reappears in the tab bar 11 4 Project Characteristics Worksheet To begin the user selects the Project
25. ch year over the course of the 50 year period The change of AADT from one year to the next is due to the provided auto traffic growth rates 5 3 3 Truck This item is divided into two columns e Truck Mean Growth this field corresponds to the assumed growth rate of the truck traffic for a given year These values are taken from the Project Characteristics worksheet For easier identification the changes in growth rates are highlighted by red text e Truck Tolled AADT this column contains the estimated daily tolled auto traffic for each year over the course of the 50 year period The change of AADT from one year to the next is due to the provided truck traffic growth rates 5 3 4 Total This item is also divided into two columns e Total AADT this column represents the daily traffic estimates for autos and trucks in each year e Feasible Total AADT if the total estimated AADT exceeds the maximum total AADT the traffic demand is equal to the maximum total AADT The cell at the bottom of the worksheet with the dark green background indicates whether or not the traffic did or did not exceed the maximum total AADT at some point over the 50 year study period In the example the maximum is fixed at 60 000 vehicles autos and trucks and this value is exceeded several times 22 5 3 5 Averages These fields display the averages for each column over the 50 year study period These averages are provided for reference only and are not used wi
26. ction and the unique attributes provided on the various worksheets for each section Figure 11 1 shows an example of multiple sections examined through the Toll Revenue Estimation Model Combined Traffic amp Revenue Gross Annual Annual Annual Net Annual Year No Year Tolled AADT Operations Maintenance Toll Revenue Revenue Costs Costs 6 816 334 g 820 000 11 675 609 S 20286772 1 260 750 136 581 18 889 441 23785798 1292269 S 139 996 22 353 534 25 498 681 1 357 690 28 720 529 1 391 632 31 028 404 1 426 423 33 527 770 36235343 39 169 390 N 2028 77217 1 42701043 amp 45968404 T SE d4665411 1 amp AN AQAA AIN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Figure 11 1 Combined Results of Multiple Sections Wikipedia http en wikipedia org wiki Confidence interval accessed January 26 2011 34 If the user has already selected and generated the combined results on this worksheet then makes changes to items on previous worksheets the user needs to refresh the results in the Combined Results worksheet by clicking on the appropriate button again 12 Combined Analysis The organization of Combined Analysis worksheet is similar to the individual Analysis worksheet for each individual section The combined results respect the opening year dates selected for each section and the unique attributes provided on the various worksheets for each section Combined Revenue Analysis YEAR TRAFFIC
27. dsheet or Toll Revenue Estimation Model also allows the user to simultaneously examine proposed projects in sections similar to how projects are often built in phases Finally this model analyzes the probability of the resulting revenue estimates based on the data provided by the user This Toll Revenue Estimation Model builds on previous research of a similar nature In October 2004 the Texas Transportation Institute published the research report Development of a Toll Viability Screening Tool That analysis model could only consider a toll project as a single section and did not allow the user to examine a project in phases over time And although the Toll Viability Screen Tool Smith et al Development of a Toll Viability Screening Tool FHWA TX 05 0 4726 1 Texas Department of Transportation October 2004 TVST was also an Excel based model it required the third party add in Risk by Palisade to conduct the Monte Carlo simulation on the input variables and perform the probability analysis on the revenue estimates The Toll Revenue Estimation Model takes the concept of the TVST and builds on the features and usability of the model through macros look up tables and other core Excel features to make the Toll Revenue Estimation Model more user friendly expansive and accessible by not requiring any third party add in software 3 Toll Revenue Estimation Model Because of the core structure of Excel it is possible to create
28. e Days Days per Year This field indicates the number of toll revenue days that compose an operational year Full revenue will not be generated on some days such as during weekends holidays severe weather crashes construction etc It is therefore reasonable to consider that the mean number of toll revenue days is less than 365 days This value is used to compute annual toll revenues 4 3 2 Time Period between Increases Years This field indicates the frequency in which manual increases to toll rates can be applied By default for the Toll Revenue Estimation Model the toll rate can be forced to increase every five years beyond what is accounted for through the annual inflation rate adjustment In other words the toll rates will automatically increase annually by the inflation rate entered in the General Facility Data section but the user can also have additional toll rate adjustments every five years This cell cannot be changed as shown by the white background 19 4 3 3 Toll Rate for Autos at Opening Year per mile This field shows how the rate users will be charged for using the toll road during the opening year of the facility The toll rate is shown as a cost per mile due to the fact that the Toll Revenue Estimation Model examines toll road in a generic manner In other words the number of and configuration of tolling locations i e gantries that impact the tolls charge due to the need to have minimum tolls per transacti
29. e with and see the benefits provided by the new toll road This values used in these field tends to be project specific and often depends on the familiarity of the public with tolling and other tolled facility 4 3 7 ETC Penetration Rate for Autos and Trucks The number of vehicles using electronic toll collection ETC in vehicle transponders commonly called toll tags to facilitate toll transactions is not 100 percent of the driving public There are many reasons why some drivers elect not to open an account with a toll agency and place a transponder in their vehicle This attitude coupled with the fact that it takes time for citizens to become familiar with the use and advantages of toll tags requires a method for accounting for the percentage of vehicles that use toll tags and those that will have their toll transactions conducted through video tolling Toll tag penetration rates permit a way to gradually adjust the percentage of users opting to use toll tags as the toll facility matures The Toll Revenue Estimation Model allows the user to indicate these penetration rates separately for autos and trucks 4 3 8 Comments The user can use this field to leave notes or explanations that clarify the choice of the input values within the Toll Data portion of the Project Characteristics worksheet 20 5 Traffic Data Worksheet After the Project Characteristics worksheet there is the Traffic Data worksheet as shown in Figure 5 1 This workshe
30. eececeseesuaaaseeeeeeeseeseaaeaeeeeeens 25 7 1 Annual Transactional Cost Table sirni enn aeaa aaae aa EE iiae R nen 25 7 2 Annual Operations Cost Table ccccccccccssssssssececeeecessesssaeseceescesscaeaeeececssessesaeaeeeeesessesesasaeeeeeens 27 7 3 Annual Maintenance Cost eesceeesccsesceceseceseeceeesceceeecessaneesaaececaaecaaeeesaeeeeaaeceeeaeseaeeesaaeeeeaaenennees 28 8 X Transactions amp Revenue Worksheet ssssssssssssseeeseene enne en nentes enne 29 8 1 Total Transactions and Revenue ssssessseseeeeeee eene enne ener entere enne snnt entree 29 8 2 Transactions and Revenue for Autos and Trucks eeeseeeeeeeeneenenen nnns 29 9 Summary Graphs rrr ret Rory en e E pui stavi e pum vun ure putt egeta terx Pact unus 31 10 Analysis of Results ie ee hee nete eae eaten ote RE R UR dte oen ER eo aede v enue EREE 33 10 31 Traffic Estimates ec reete e ete gere be eee ve RR ee t Venke vue une benda Un AE 33 10 2 Toll Revenue Estimates 00 eee ceccceceecceesseeeeseeceeeceseeeeesaeceaaeceeaaesaeeeeaaeceeaaeseeaeeeaeeeeaaeeeeaaeneenees 33 10 3 Confidence Interval eiit tiene here Ea ea eae ed bn epu etin eee Paesi eee tha dinen 34 11 COMBINE RESUS see a a aaae e Ta AER aa EEEE aaie e Ene 34 12 Combined Analysis ariaa aaa aa todo Mete ae ke ee Sire oae Eze ERR e aaae Roeie aiee 35 13 eem 35 14 Bibliography escono assan stan tee eaa eae te oth aere td dace ea Ee eee ERR
31. eeens 11 Figure 4 1 General Facility Data Inputs esses eene enne enne ener nnns seen nnne ana 13 Figure 4 2 Traffic AADT Data Options Input eene enne enn nnne nnns 17 Figure 4 4 Toll Data Input otio eet eh eee te ere de aed ee duds 19 Figure 5 1 Traffic Data WorkSheet cccccsssssceceeecessesenaeceeececessesaaaececeescessesaeaeseseceesesesaaaeeeessesseseasaeeeesens 21 Figure 6 1 Toll Rates Worksheet cccccccsssssssscecececessesenaeeeeececessesaeseeesecscessesaeaeseeeceesssesaeaeeeeesessesenseaeeeesens 24 Fig re 7 1 Annual Transactions n reda orn re n dete aaae de iaa ia oiae a ERAR REESS 26 Figure 7 2 Annual Operations COSt ccccccssssscccececessesenaecesecscessceeaeceeecscessesaaaeeeeecsesesesaeaeeeeecesseseaasaeeeesens 27 Figure 7 3 Annual Maintenance Cost per Mile cccccssccccecsssessaeeeeececssseceseeeeecessssesaaaeeeeeeesseseaeaeesenens 28 Figure 8 1 Traffic and Revenue c cccccccssssssssececececessesenaececececesseseaaeeecesecessesaeaesesecseseseuaeaeseeeceseeseasaeeeesens 29 Figure 8 2 Transactions and Revenue for Autos ssssssssssssseseeeeee eene nhnnnn nns sn terna nasse 30 Figure 8 3 Traffic and Revenue for Trucks esee eene nennen nennen nn nns en nenas n nasse 30 Figure 9 1 Graphs Tor Total Traffic cnt tote tee et tetto n pee de gere eaae eaa Eep coc ue pond e Ru TE Tues 32 Figure 10 1 Analysis of Results for Autos
32. eet The user does not need to click on the Menu tab but can do so without any effect on the Feasibility Tool zm lexas R A Transportation E Institute The Texas A amp M University System Early Stage Toll Revenue Estimation Model Copyright 2010 by the Texas Transportation Institute All rights reserved Clickto begin Figure 3 4 Introductory Worksheet Screen 3 2 2 Menu Worksheet The Menu is the backbone for the Toll Revenue Estimation Model by providing macro buttons to navigate through the various worksheets First the user decides how many sections of toll road he or she wants to study By default the Toll Revenue Estimation Model opens with only one toll section ready to be studied By selecting the appropriate button shown in Figure 3 5 the user can examine more than one section or phase of a proposed toll road At this time the maximum number of toll road sections that the user can study simultaneously with the Toll Revenue Estimation Model is limited to three Number of sections to study 1 f 2 3 Figure 3 5 Number of Projects Studied The default Menu screen for a single study section is shown in Figure 3 6 When multiples sections are to be studied additional buttons appear on the screen in order to navigate through the various worksheets related to each section Figure 3 7 provides an example screen image when three toll road sections are to be analyzed Welcome to the Early Stage Toll Revenue Est
33. esses eene ener nnne enhn seen nne nn nnns 33 Figure 11 1 Combined Results of Multiple Sections sees 34 Figure 12 1 Analysis of Combined Results from Multiple Sections ccccscccccesessssesseaeeeeeeesssseseeeeeesens 35 1 Introduction With the downturn of the economy in late 2008 and early 2009 it has become increasing clear to elected officials departments of transportation and some businesses that the traditional source of funding for transportation the motor fuel tax is no longer sufficient to maintain let alone expand the surface transportation infrastructure in this nation As the recession progressed the public reduced the amount of traveling they did and for the first time annual vehicle miles traveled VMT declined both in Texas and across the country This reduction in travel had a direct negative impact on the revenues generated from the motor fuel tax Governments at all levels are searching for new sources of revenue to build and maintain surface transportation Currently funding for highway infrastructure comes from 18 4 cents per gallon federal tax on each gallon of gas purchased plus 20 cents per gallon tax by the State of Texas Bond financing is another option to fund highway projects however some critics claim highway bonds merely pushes the financial problem into the future by committing future budgets to cover the incurred debt Over the past decade toll roads have garnered increase attention as a way
34. et does not include any input cells It is intended as a summary table for the user to review the future traffic estimates based on the data included on the Project Characteristics worksheet Traffic Data Section 1 oy 2015 Maximum Total ADT Traffic volumes shown do NOT include ramp up factors Truck Year No Year Auto Mean Growth AutoTolled ADT Truck Mean Growth Truck TolledADT TOTALADT FEASIBLE TOTAL ADT 2015 z 216 50 1 1835 3o 7591 19137 217 50 1935 30 ma X 2979 3 096 821 22 105 3 096 846 23 194 3 096 24 337 3 0 89 25 536 7 2023 5 096 25 871 3 0 924 10 71 331 1 096 1 867 73 198 2003 106 1 7204 1 096 1 885 73 930 2064 1 0 72 765 1 0 1 904 Average 3 0 46 677 2 0 1 345 48 022 Maximum Allow able ADT is Comments Figure 5 1 Traffic Data Worksheet This table is composed of four major columns year auto truck and total Two controlling data points copied from the Project Characteristics worksheet are indicated at the top of the table the opening year of the facility and the maximum total AADT the toll facility can handle 5 1 Year of Opening The year of opening is the year the project is expected to be operational The Toll Revenue Estimation Model assumes a full calendar year of operation for the opening year For instance the hypothe
35. he reliability of an estimate in this case toll revenues A confidence interval with a particular confidence level is intended to give the assurance that if the statistical model is correct then taken over all the data that might have been obtained the procedure for constructing the interval would deliver a confidence interval that included the true value of the parameter the proportion of the time set by the confidence level For the Toll Revenue Estimation Model the Analysis worksheet shows a confidence interval of toll revenues at a 90 confidence level In other words based on the information provided throughout the Toll Revenue Estimation Model there is a 90 level of confidence that the actual revenues will fall between the upper and lower boundaries presented in the table At present the Toll Revenue Estimation Model does not examine the probability of results That will be included in future versions of the model Also the Toll Revenue Estimation Model only determines the confidence internal at the 90 confidence level It will be possible for the user to select the confidence level in future versions of the model 11 Combined Results The organization of this worksheet is similar to the Transactions amp Revenue worksheet and combines the results from all toll road sections depending on the number of sections the user chose to examine one two or three The combined results respect the opening year dates selected for each se
36. ight lane divided and e 10 lane divided Our example is a four lane undivided highway This item is used to summarize the project characteristics but does not impact the traffic and revenue forecasts 4 1 12 Tolled Typical Section This field relates to the typical section of the tolled future facility The user has the following six choices available by pull down selection e two lane undivided e four lane divided e four lane undivided e Six lane divided e eight lane divided and e 10 lane divided In the example the existing typical section is a six lane divided highway This item is used to summarize the project characteristics but does not impact the traffic and revenue forecasts 4 1 13 Frontage Roads A frontage road is a non limited access road running parallel to a higher speed road usually a highway and providing access to highway at controlled access points i e entrance and exit ramps The user can choose from the following characteristics for the frontage roads of the proposed toll facility e none e continuous and e discontinuous In the example we have a continuous frontage road parallel to the toll facility This item is used to summarize the project characteristics but does not impact the traffic and revenue forecasts 4 1 14 Classification The classification is the class or type of roads that the road is currently categorized if the proposed toll road is a brownfield project The classificati
37. imation Model This menu navigates the user through the many worksheets contained within this spreadsheet Number of sections to study 1 2 3 PROJECT CHARACTERISTICS TRAFFIC TOLL RATE OPERATIONAL amp MAINTENANCE COST TRANSACTIONS amp REVENUE SUMMARY GRAPHS ANALYSIS OF RESULTS COMBINED TRAFFIC amp COMBINED ANALYSIS OF REVENUE RESULTS Figure 3 6 Menu Study of One Section This worksheet presents options macro buttons that permit the user to switch among the model worksheets A click on the options from Project Characteristics to Estimations will make the corresponding worksheet appear and thus the corresponding tab becomes visible Welcome to the Early Stage Toll Revenue Estimation Model This menu navigates the user through the many worksheets contained within this spreadsheet Number of sections to study 1 2 3 PROJECT CHARACTERISTICS PROJECT CHARACTERISTICS 3 TRAFFIC TRAFFIC 3 TOLL RATE TOLL RATE 3 TRANSACTIONS amp REVENUE 3 TRANSACTIONS amp REVENUE SUMMARY GRAPHS SUMMARY GRAPHS 3 ANALYSIS OF RESULTS ANALYSIS OF RESULTS 3 OPERATIONAL amp OPERATIONAL amp MAINTENANCE COST MAINTENANCE COSTS 3 COMBINED TRAFFIC amp COMBINED ANALYSIS OF REVENUE RESULTS Figure 3 7 Menu Study of Three Sections The Menu worksheet provides macro buttons that permit the user to switch among the many worksheets of the Toll Revenue Estimation Mode
38. ired the user can make periodic adjustments to the rate schedule if appropriate for the toll road under consideration 6 1 1 Year of Analysis This is the year the toll project is being analyzed to assess its feasibility The year of analysis can be different from the year of opening A full date MM DD YYYY may be entered as a record keeping device to know when the last analysis occurred 6 1 2 Other Information The following information is taken directly from the Project Characteristics worksheet e Year of Opening e Toll Revenue Days e Project Length miles e Inflation Rate If the user wishes to make changes to any of these items return to the Project Characteristics worksheet for the appropriate section of toll road e g Section 1 Section 2 or Section 3 and modify the corresponding fields to the desired values 6 1 3 Period between Manual Toll Changes This field indicates the frequency in which the toll rates can be manually adjusted beyond the annual inflation rate By default for the Feasibility Tool the toll rate can be forced to a new value every five years At this time the frequency for making manual adjustments to the toll rate cannot be changed as indicated by the white background 24 6 1 4 Toll Rate Schedule The Toll Rate worksheet provides a summary table of the base toll rates by vehicle type for each year in the study period This toll rate schedule is used to estimate future toll revenues 6 1 4 1 Ye
39. l By clicking on an option a new worksheet is opened for data inputs or to present analysis results The tab for each worksheet is color coded and labeled to correspond with the appropriate selection from the Menu The Toll Revenue Estimation Model is designed as a sequential process where the user should first begin with Project Characteristics then Traffic and continuing through the remaining options for each study section 3 3 Usingthe Toll Revenue Estimation Model To orient the user in the navigation of the Toll Revenue Estimation Model the following sections explain what occurs when each option on the Menu is selected For purposes of simplicity the user s guide presents as an example the study of one toll road section The navigation and operations of the worksheets are the same regardless of the number of sections that are being examined 10 Any cell on a worksheet with a light yellow background as illustrated in Figure 3 8 is defined as a user input field These are the only field that can be selected and modified by the user If the user tries to select and modify a cell that is protected i e locked a pop up window appears indicating that the cell selected cannot be modified Figure 3 9 provides an example of such warning Project ID District Region County Opening Year Origin Destination Figure 3 8 Yellow Cells Indicate the User May Input Values Microsoft Excel i The cell or chart that you
40. ndexed unless the user provides some other tolling plan in the Toll Rate worksheet of the Toll Revenue Estimation Model For this example a three percent inflation rate per year over the study period was assumed for the hypothetical project 4 1 18 Comments The user can use this field to leave notes or explanations that clarify the choice of the input values within the General Facility Data portion of the Project Characteristics worksheet 4 2 Traffic Data Inputs The second part of the Project Characteristics worksheet is Traffic Data Inputs Figure 4 2 shows the layout and content of this section of the worksheet 16 Traffic Data Inputs Section 1 Traffic Type Constrained Level of Service of Constrained Traffic D Anticipated Minimum Anticipated Maximum Total Autos amp Trucks Average Daily Traffic ADT at Opening Year 12 000 21 000 Mean Percentage of Auto Traffic Opening Year of ADT 96 096 Mean Percentage of Traffic Opening Year of ADT Growth Mean Annual Growth Rate of Auto Traffic Years 1 10 5 096 Years 11 20 4 096 Years 21 30 Years 31 40 Years 41 50 Mean Growth Rate of Traffic Years 1 10 Years 11 20 2 596 Years 21 30 2 096 Years 31 40 1 596 Years 41 50 1 096 Click Here to Clear Traffic Inputs Comments Figure 4 2 Traffic AADT Data Options Input 4 2 1 Traffic Type This field characterizes the type of traffic that is expected on the toll facility constrained or unconstrained A constraint
41. numerous worksheets in a single file to facilitate the analysis and navigation within the Toll Revenue Estimation Model Because numerous macros are incorporated into the Toll Revenue Estimation Model the worksheets and certain cells are protected i e locked and the user is not able to modify them This ensures the integrity of the model when used multiple times by multiple users 3 1 Opening the Tool To open the tool the user double clicks the Excel based file 2010 Toll Revenue Estimation Model xlsm Depending on the version of Excel and the security setting selected within Excel a warning message similar to the one in Figure 3 1 will appear indicating that the file is open but macros contained within the spreadsheet are currently disabled In order to use the analysis calculations and navigational aids within the Toll Revenue Estimation Model macros must be enabled Tm o File Home Insert Page Layout Formulas Data Review View Add Ins Acrobat Cut 5 Calibri 11 iA A Yr c Wrap Text i 3 Copy 7 Paste Hie amp E es X Y f Format Painter BIU BEDV a A SS OSS a Merge amp Center Clipboard x Font a Alignment Figure 3 1 Security Warming Regarding Macros Again depending on the version of Excel and security settings a window as shown in Figure 3 2 may appear when the user clicks to enable macros Microsoft Office Security Options Q Security Alert Macro Macro M
42. oll revenues 6 1 5 Comments The user can leave notes or explanations that clarify the choice of the input values within the Toll Rates worksheet 7 Operations amp Maintenance Worksheet The Operations amp Maintenance O amp M worksheet allows the user to consider the cost of operating and maintaining the toll road during the study period These costs will be used to determine the anticipated net revenues on an annual basis If the fields on the O amp M worksheet are left blank then the Toll Revenue Estimation Model will provide gross revenues in the summary tables described later in this manual The O amp M worksheet is composed of three tables annual transactional cost annual operations cost and annual maintenance cost per mile 7 1 Annual Transactional Cost Table The annual transactions are computed as the traffic multiplied by factor that has been derived from the examination of numerous traffic and revenue studies conducted by various Departments of 25 Transportations and their consultants The annual transactions table Figure 20 is composed of six columns and two fields Annual Transactional Cost Section 1 Year of Opening Cost of Each Transaction at Opening Year Autos ETC Trucks 2015 3 160 080 60 131670 2016 3 792 096 154 994 2017 4 479 413 179 600 5 487 281 211 708 5 761 645 218 059 6 352 214 231 339 6 669 825 238 279 2024 7 003 316 245 428 2018 2019 2020 2021
43. on at certain locations for every possible tolling plan is not programmed within the Toll Revenue Estimation Model 4 3 4 Toll Rate for Trucks at Opening Year per mile This field shows how much users driving a truck are charged for taking the toll road during the opening year of the facility Again toll rates are entered on a per mile basis 4 3 5 Video Tolling Premium Video tolling is a technique that identifies a vehicle by using video to capture the license plate number of vehicles Then the license plate information is matched against vehicle registration records to identify the owner of the vehicle An invoice for toll transactions is mailed to the address of the owner Video tolling makes the purchase of a transponder unnecessary however a premium is typically applied to transactions collected by video versus transponder due to the additional administrative efforts required to process and collect toll charges through a video system This field estimates how much of a premium a user taking the toll facility should pay for using video tolling instead of electronic toll collection ETC For the example video tolling costs 25 percent more than ETC in the example project 4 3 6 Ramp Up Factors This field indicates the reduced traffic volumes of the toll road during its first few years of service as people become aware and accustomed to the new facility This ramp up period tends to stabilize as the public becomes comfortabl
44. on can be selected from a pull down menu e interstate highway e U S highway e State highway e loop e urban street or e business route 15 In the example we selected state highway This item is used to summarize the project characteristics but does not impact the traffic and revenue forecasts 4 1 15 Current Statewide Mobility Plan SMP Priority This field attempts to address whether or not the project is included in the current Statewide Mobility Plan and if it is what the project s priority status For the Toll Revenue Estimation Model there are currently four options for this variable through a pull down selection e construct e plan e develop or e notin the SMP This item is used to summarize the project characteristics but does not impact the traffic and revenue forecasts 4 1 16 Maximum AADT per Lane This field is the maximum AADT per lane constraint AADT stands for Annual Average Daily Traffic The maximum AADT for a lane is used to calculate the traffic capacity of the toll road The Toll Revenue Estimation Model checks to ensure that more traffic is not placed on the toll road in future years than can be accommodated by the facility 4 1 17 Inflation Rate The inflation rate is the general decrease of purchasing power of the dollar over time and is a necessary field when the time value of money is involved in the analysis This rate also is the factor to which annual toll rates will be i
45. renes ENEE EEDS EES 5 3 Toll Revenue Estimation Model esssessseseseeeeeeeeee enne 6 3 1 Opening the TOON eessen 6 3 2 General Organization by Worksheets cc cccccccccsssssssssecececessesseaeeeeeescsssesaeaeseeeessesseaaaeeeeseeseeeags 7 3 3 Using the Toll Revenue Estimation Model ccccccccccccssssssssssccececessesscneseeeescsssesesaeeeeeeseessessaaeess 10 4 Project Characteristics Worksheet cccccssssccccecessessaeceeccecesseaeaeceeeceseesesasaeeeeeesseeseaaeseeeesesesesnaaeees 12 4 1 General Facility Data Inputs c ccccccccsssssssececececeesesaeaeceeeceseesesseseeeessesseauaeeeeeessessesuaesesessseesees 12 4 2 Trafic Data Meecc m M 16 4 3 Toll Data Input treo siec c nibo eter I Ie NEIN IUe N T ERIS Ae 18 5 X Traffic Data Worksheet cic re ette e RE e uere anexos eee eve ee ven eee pete re oe e e ea ARE eee eue 21 5 1 MEER 21 5 2 Maximum Total AADI irrar a eaaa ae E UR x EINEN Ee RE AE Fer re RSEN tosses 21 5 3 Worksheet InfOortmatiOh coretu code e torret na iedesdacevseh keadaaan tede aaeain 21 6 Toll Rates Worksheet inei ei ie dcd gute eoru eE te cocer on cx ep EA aR eR AER 23 6 1 Worksheet INFOrmation rcr rtt e teh e RN SERERE ER ee EAE HE E E esa VALVE SERRE EET eA RC E ERE 24 7 Operations amp Maintenance Worksheet ccccccssssscececscessesnsaeeeeecsseescsaeae
46. the annual inflation rate to the initial value The user can override any of the values by simply entering the preferred values in the appropriate years 28 8 Transactions amp Revenue Worksheet The Transactions amp Revenue T amp R worksheet is composed of three tables total autos only and trucks only values Each table is described below 8 1 Total Transactions and Revenue Figure 8 1 show how the Total Transactions and Revenue table is composed of eight columns that represents the combined totals for autos and trucks on the section of toll road being examined TOTAL TRANSACTIONS amp REVENUE Section 1 Year Annual Toll Annual Toll Operational Maintenance Net Annual Transactions Revenue Costs Costs Revenue 3 291 750 3 291 750 7 256 334 5 116 047 480 000 1 660 287 3 947 090 3 947 090 8 901 877 5 308 428 492 000 3 101 448 Year Annual Traffic 733 2018 5 431524 5431524 12 823 084 5 730 608 516908 6 575 569 2019 5 698 990 5 698 990 13766 404 5 902 197 529 830 7334377 2020 5 979705 5979705 14 445 679 6 065 485 543076 7 837 118 2021 6 274329 6274329 15 509 609 6 249 157 556653 8 703 800 EA 6 583 553 6 583 553 6 439 847 570 569 9 642 154 6 908 104 6 908 104 17 880 472 6 637 916 584 833 10 657 723 2024 7248 744 7248 44 19 199 668 6843747 599454 11 756 467 Figure 8 1 Traffic and Revenue 8
47. thin the Toll Revenue Estimation Model for transaction and revenue calculations 5 3 6 Comments The user can use this field to leave notes or explanations that clarify the values presented within the Traffic Data worksheet 6 Toll Rates Worksheet The Toll Rates worksheet Figure 6 1 allows the user to set the toll rate schedule that will be applied in order to estimate annual toll revenues The user can apply toll rates based on the information entered on the Project Characteristics worksheet or make additional adjustments as appropriate Base Toll Rate Schedule Section 1 Year of Analysis 2010 Year of Opening 2015 Toll Revenue Days 285 Project Length miles 12 Inflation Rate 2 5096 Period Between Manual Toll Changes every five years Auto Toll Rate Truck Toll Rate per mile per mile 0 15 0 55 0 15 0 56 0 16 0 58 0 16 0 59 0 17 0 61 0 62 0 64 0 65 0 67 0 69 0 70 Year of Toll Rate 2017 0 17 0 18 0 18 0 19 N w Average Toll Rate 1 07 Comments Figure 6 1 Toll Rates Worksheet 6 1 Worksheet Information This worksheet provides a summary of the base annual toll rates on a per mile basis that are used in the calculation of annual toll revenues The user can review the information on this worksheet to see how both auto and truck toll rates increase annually based on the data included on the Project Characteristics worksheets If des
48. tical project will begin full operation in January 2015 5 2 Maximum Total AADT The maximum total AADT is the capacity limit on a daily basis for the toll facility This number cannot be changed directly on this worksheet Its value is calculated from the values for the number of lanes and the maximum total AADT per lane in the Project Characteristics worksheet 5 3 Worksheet Information The Traffic Data worksheet provides a summary of the annual traffic volumes that are used in the calculation of annual toll revenues The user can review the information on this worksheet to see how 21 both auto and truck traffic increases annually based on the data included on the Project Characteristics worksheet The data table is divided into four main items 5 3 1 Year This item is divided into two columns e Year No this field goes from 1 to 50 with 1 being assigned to the opening year 2 to the following year etc e Year this field goes from the opening year to 50 years after the opening year In the example the calendar goes from 2015 to 2061 5 3 2 Auto This item is divided into two columns e Auto Mean Growth this field corresponds to the assumed growth rate of the auto traffic for a given year These values are taken from the Project Characteristics worksheet For easier identification the changes in growth rates are highlighted by red text e Auto Tolled AADT this column contains the estimated daily tolled auto traffic for ea
49. y of the values by simply entering the preferred values in the appropriate years 27 7 3 Annual Maintenance Cost The third and last table of the O amp M worksheet concerns annual maintenance cost Figure 22 for the toll road Annual Maintenance Cost Section 1 Year of Opening 2015 Enter the Annual Maintenance Cost for the facility in the yellow cells Year No Year Annual Maintenance Cost per mile 40 000 41 000 42 025 43 076 Ad 153 45 256 46 388 47 547 48 736 49 955 WD IN o Jun Go jN m o Figure 7 3 Annual Maintenance Cost per Mile 7 3 1 Year of Opening The year of opening is the year the project is expected to be operational taken from the Project Characteristics worksheet For instance the hypothetical project will begin full operations in 2015 The Toll Revenue Estimation Model assumes a full calendar year of operation for the starting year 7 3 2 Annual Maintenance Cost per Mile This field reflects the annual maintenance cost per mile over the 50 year period Typically the maintenance cost includes items associated with keeping the toll facility open operational and in good repair The costs to expand and or reconstruct the facility are considered major capital investments and should not be included in on going maintenance expenses The table is set up so that the user can enter an annual cost for maintenance in the first year then the remaining years are populated by applying
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