Home

User`s Manual for EconExpert-EP and EconExpert

1. SIMMBtu Transportation 1 SIMMBtu SIMMBtu Transportation 2 SIMMBtu SIMMBtu Net Delivered Fuel Price 2 65 S MMBtu 275 S MMBtu If desired the user may alternatively provide annual forward fuel prices in Table 1C 09 29 2010 Page 93 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 j Fuel Quality EP Model Only The higher heating value sulfur content and ash content of the fuel are specified in Table 1 Inputs are entered in the following units Gas o Higher Heating Value Btu SCF o Ash and sulfur contents percentage by Volume Solid Fuel or Oil o Higher Heating Value Btu Ib o Ash and sulfur contents percentage by Weight The heating value of the fuel is used with the plant capacity heat rate and capacity factor to calculate annual fuel consumption which is then apportioned according to the specified Period 1 and Period 2 Profiles The Sulfur content is used to calculate the uncontrolled sulfur emissions which are used in the analysis of costs for SO2 removal and associated production of solid waste The Ash content is used to calculate the quantity of ash produced which is combined with the reacted SO2 sorbent and moisture for wet scrubbers to calculate the total quantity of solid waste disposed The excerpt from Table 1 below illustrates inputs for fuel quality using the Example Coal Case see Appendix for details Note that key rat
2. If you have contacted CEI to obtain the Extension Code select YES You will then be prompted by the following screen Figure 3 Extension Code Screen EconExpert PV V14 9025 4 Copyright 2001 201 Enter Authorized Extension Code Provided by CEI OK Usually Three 5 Character Segments Separated by ok Spaces Cancel The Code is Case Sensitive and MUST match exactly pocos HE Posti pott Enter the code provided to you by CEI The License Extension Code is comprised of five sets of 5 Character Case Sensitive Segments each separated by a single space THE CODE IS CASE SENSITIVIVE AND MUST MATCH THE AUTHORIZED CODE EXACTLY IFIT DOES NOT MATCH YOU WILL BE PROMPTED UP TO 3 TIMES FOR THE CORRECT CODE After the correct code is entered you will see the following screen 09 29 2010 Page 14 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Figure 4 Enter User Name for New License Enter your User Name usually your First Name and Last Name The User Name that you enter must be at least 8 characters long The name you enter will appear on the Program Greeting each Econ Expert ENTER USER NAME to Re enable License E3 Please Enter the User Name you would like to use 8 ok Characters Minimum OK Your First and Last Name is an acceptable choice _ Cancel time you open EconExpert After entering your name enter the name of your Company This Econ Expert ENTER COMPANY NAME X Please Enter the Name of the C
3. Note that this screen will also advise you of the current date and on what date your license to use the software will expire Also note that the Recalculation Feature on Excel will be set to Automatic This is the recommended setting for EconExpert though if you prefer you can later reset the recalculation setting to Manual using the 09 29 2010 Page 19 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Tools Options Recalculation option on the Excel Command Menu If you set recalculation to Manual it will be necessary for you to press F9 Calculate to re enable EconExpert following saving the model as discussed below Select OK again and you will see a notice about providing copies of EconExpert to others EconExpert is Initializing Please Wait The Initialization Procedure will occur every time that you open the model EconExpert will automatically check its setup to ensure that all of its internal settings are set correctly when you start work 09 29 2010 Page 20 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Figure 9 Notice Regarding the EconExpert License Agreement EconExpert Note 3 of 3 READ THE SOFTWARE LICENSE x advising you that prior to using the model you must acknowledge that you accept the terms of the Software License Agreement This is required to enable EconExpert s calculations You will be required to acknowledge your Agreement with the Software License each time you install the model on an Authoriz
4. Tables 7 and 7A Leveraged and Unleveraged Cash Flow Tables 8 and 8A Leveraged and Unleveraged IRR and NPV Table 9 Sources and Uses of Funds Tables 11 11A 11B and 11C Financial Statements and Impacts on Owner s Stock Price Other tables including calculations of debt revenue factors and operating factors are based on the entire project 100 and are not dependent on Ownership 09 29 2010 Page 88 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 d Project Schedule The Project Schedule Inputs to Table 1 are shown in the Figure below Figure 36 Project Schedule Economic Factors Base Year Constant Dollar in Mid Year 2010 I Year to Calculate XNPV to 2009 I GNP Escalation Rate for Revs amp Exps 3 50 T Discount Rate for Leveraged XNPV 96 10 0 to Mid 2009 000s Discount Rate for Unleveraged XNPV 8 0 lto Mid 2009 000s Interest Rate Earned on Escrowed Funds 5 00 Inputs to this section include Month and Year of Financial Closing This point sets the start of the project schedule and of the construction phase drawdown in Table 3 Construction Term Months This specifies the length of the construction phase and the length of the corresponding drawdown schedule Project Life Years This is the term of the analysis If the Project Life is shorter than the debt term or an applicable depreciation life than the residual principal balance and depreciation will be accelerated in the final
5. 000s 5 0 103 103 Labor 0 250 000s 5 0 Interest Rate on Subordinated Debt 8 0 1 0 Fixed O amp M Category 3 0 100 000s 5 0 Var O amp M Variable O amp M Category 1 2 00 MWH 5 0 Change in Leveraged XNPV from Base Case 000s The horizontal bars illustrate how changes in the identified inputs would impact the project s IRR The results are sorted in order of significance giving the Tornado effect Note that the titles on the left axis identify the base case leveraged and unleveraged IRRs the Base Year value for the input and the Increment that was used 09 29 2010 Page 135 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 H Customizing EconExpert One of the many advantages of EconExpert is the flexibility it offers allowing you to accurately custom model virtually any power generation project While the core tables in the model are locked and cannot be modified by the user in the vast majority of cases custom analysis can be accomplished using a combination of EconExpert s Global and Annual Inputs Sheets Tables 1 and 1C In addition to entering values into these cells formulas may also be entered These formulas can be tied to other cells in the model or to custom tables that you develop Useful approaches for customizing the model include e At the bottom of each sheet a blank unprotected area formatted as Yellow Cells is provided where you can develop your own custom cal
6. 96 of Costs I5 1000 Click to Create Click to Create NM CER CERE 10 IRR Tornado Diagram NPY Tornado Diagram Annual Custom Expenses 2 10 m Form m Form HELP Basel KL Annual Custom Expenses 4 10 The white boxes in this sheet are the locations where you tell EconExpert over what range Increment that you would like the model to vary each of the specified inputs Once you have established the Increments select the button labeled Click to Create ornado Diagram to generate the selected Tornado Diagram After selecting this button the following diagram will be generated 09 29 2010 Page 134 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Figure 76 Example Tornado Diagram Consolidated Tornado Diagram Sensitivity of Leveraged After Tax NPV to Changes in Revenue Related Inputs Base Case 25 yr Leveraged NPV 81 888 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 Capital Investment Excl Soft Costs amp IDC 351 220 000s 2 0 Owner s Equity 70 0 2 0 of Investment Annual Net Capacity Factor 8 0 Annual Average 0 2 Interest Rate on Construction Financing 6 0 1 0 Interest Rate on Senior Debt 7 0 1 0 Property Taxes 1 761 000s 5 0 Insurance 1 761 000s 5 0 Energy Per 1A Weighted Annual Average 16 34 MWH 5 0 Energy Per 1 amp 2 8760 hrs 16 34 MWH 5 0 Term of Primary Debt 15 years 1 yrs 190 il 182 Materials 0 300
7. Table 1 Global Inputs This is the primary and mandatory input sheet where life of project parameters are specified Individual Table 1 Input Sets can be saved and restored allowing you to analyze multiple cases in one file Special Example Cases of illustrative inputs for gas fired and coal fired power plants are also provided These examples are discussed in the Appendix More 09 29 2010 Page 60 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 detailed discussions of Global and Annual Inputs are provided on page 82 and page 111 respectively Table 1C Annual Inputs This optional sheet allows more specific customization of the model by allowing you to refine input annual values for specific variables Results calculated from Annual Inputs will override or be added to results calculated from Global Inputs to Table 1 Individual Table 1C Input Sets can be saved and restored allowing you to analyze multiple cases in the same file More detailed discussions of Global and Annual Inputs are provided on page 82 and page 111 respectively Table 2 Summary This sheet provides a summary of the results for the current case including predicted impacts on the price of the Owner s stock IRR and NPV summaries and revenue and income summaries Table 3 Construction This sheet provides the monthly Construction Period Drawdown The model includes a default drawdown schedule for any duration from 1 48 months The user may also specify custom drawdow
8. c Energy Sales and Energy Pricing Profiles s c sc csesssiccenscssibeectesneneseseathostedecensccusdenctecssacsusaotsasticveocteseteestss 115 dy Other REVENUS 4o reete rente e eene deta etse e teed eara eese natin tee lesa sacs 116 e Fuel Quality EP Only ies 55i iit rtr Ie HERE EE ED GER EHE RO He Ro deni diate 117 fy Ruel Costs BP Only tee ere I e eret He Estee UL od EDO EUN ESPERE Ere Ea 117 g8 Fixedand Variable Operating Cost aane Hee es te et tr Rte g e De te eost p desee do 118 h Major Maintenance Expenses Capitalized and Expensed esee 119 1 Expensed Major Mainteriance es een cde aee dente teret I eee e Pe de p A i 119 ii Capitalized Major Maintenance Expenses Capital Improvements sese 119 i Financing Terms Primary and Subordinated Debt sese 121 j Property Taxes Insurance Income Taxes and After Tax Dividends see 122 k After Tax Dividends Annual Inputs 00 0 0 ccc cecccecesecesseeceeneeceeeeeceaeeeeaaecesaeeceaeeceaeeseaaecseaeeceeeeeeaeeeeaaeceeaeeess 122 1 Computations of Owner s Stock Price Performance ee ceeeceeeeeeneeeeeeseeeseecaecaecesecsseceseeeeeeseeeaeeeaaeeaeee 123 3 Data Conversion Sheet oret eite oet De tee Pede eee hls a Dee etae Datu e Do i eves ee aan Ads 123 E Saving EconExpert Spreadsheets eese eee E E E 124 1 Saving Fully Functional Copies of the Model ener nennen
9. copy of the current EconExpert case This Values Only copy of EconExpert can be shared with others who may not be licensed to use EconExpert It will not be possible to run new cases using the Values Only copy and once saved and reopened the EconExpert Command Menu will have limited functionality the NAVIGATE PRINT and HELP options will be Fully Functional No special license codes will be required to open and view the Values Only version from any PC that has Microsoft Excel Versions 97 or later Since the Sensitivity Cases and Tornado diagrams included in a Values Only copy of the model will only be accurate if they are updated to the current case you will be offered the option to run all of the Model s Sensitivity Cases prior to converting the model to Values Only This may take several minutes to execute depending on the speed of your processor The Tornado Diagrams must 09 29 2010 Page 45 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 be individually generated If you elect not to update the Sensitivities the Sensitivity Tables Tornado Tables Sensitivity Graphs and Tornado Graphs can be deleted from the Values Only Prior to executing a Values Only conversion you will be prompted with a number of Warnings advising you to save the original spreadsheet before making the conversion and to save the Values Only file to a new filename to avoid overwriting the Fully Functional Model
10. 09 29 2010 Page 65 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 into specified green shaded input cells Table 1 is organized into 4 sections associated with the various classes of inputs and separated by bold red lines The Input Categories in Table 1 are Column 1 Plant Capacity Heat Rate and Fuel Type Degradation Profile As applicable to EP or PV Model Economic Factors Equity and Project Ownership Project Schedule Annual Plant Capacity Factor o In PV model capacity factor is calculated based on PV Model and Solar Radiation Criteia Capacity Factor in Major Maintenance Years EP Only Switches Owner s Stock Performance Column 2 Energy and Fuel Pricing Period Profiles Energy Prices by Period Fuel Prices by Period EP Only Fuel Quality EP Only Environmental Controls EP Only o SO2 Removal o NOx Removal Other Revenues including Renewable Energy Credits and Capacity Payments Raw Materials and Operating Costs o Reagent Costs EP Only o Variable O amp M o Fixed O amp M Major Maintenance Costs EP Only Column 3 Investment Costs o Phase 1 Project Development o Phase 2 Engineering Construction and Start up o Soft Costs o Plant Salvage Value Column 4 Construction Financing Permanent Financing o Senior Debt Structure o Subordinated Debt Structure Sources of Capital Summary Depreciation Income Taxes and Investment Tax Credits Property Taxes and Insuran
11. 19 Table 10 Major Maintenance Table 10 provides calculations of Periodic Capitalized and Expensed Major Maintenance Costs The balance accumulated in the Major Maintenance Reserve account is also calculated Major Maintenance Reserves are applied to Periodic Major Maintenance Expenses in years when Major Outages have been scheduled Periodic and Capitalized Major Maintenance Costs are depreciated for Book and for Cash Purposes Expensed Major Maintenance Costs are treated in the same manner as are Fixed Operating Expenses 09 29 2010 Page 77 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 20 Table 11 Financials Table 11 provides the Project s Financial Statements including the Income Statement Cash Flow Statement and Balance Sheet based on the Owner s percentage interest in the project The predicted Owner s Stock Performance with and without the project is also estimated Table 11 is organized as follows e Table 11 Income Statement The Income Statement is used to calculate Net Income revenues minus expenses Depreciation and taxes for the project using GAAP Book Accounting Methods e Table 11A Cash Flow Statement The Cash Flow Statement identifies sources of project cash and amounts available for potential distribution to the Owner e Table 11B Balance Sheet The Balance Sheet identifies assets equity and liabilities attributed to the project where Total Annual Assets are in balance with Total Annual Equity an
12. as 0 000001 if you would like to override the Global Input with an entry Annual Inputs equivalent to 0 have been entered Escalation and Discounting Dates Discount Dates Currently used in Model 745 2011 7 2012 712013 44 GNP Escalation Rate for Revs amp Exps 96 45 Customization of Date for Discounting MM DD Y 0 Customize Construction Discount Dates in Table 7 46 Facilities Performance Rated Net PY Facility Capacity Mv A Entry in any cell sets Capacity Degradation thereafter a Tas Aneuat niet Capacty Factor Enies So T o EY A Energy Sales Profile of Annual MWH 54 Period 1 Weighted Annual Average s Perioa2 se Period 3 s Pevoae omm m Energy Sales Price to Customer MWH 60 Period 1 Weighted Annual Average ea Mpering 2 a M4 D iie Data Conversion Table 1 PV Global Inputs X Table 1C Annual Inputs Table lt Ready Table 1C is Range Protected allowing you to enter data ONLY into specified Input cells Table 1C is organized into sections associated with each class of Input Categories Input Categories are organized with their related Inputs listed in rows under that category The columns to the right in Table 1C each represent a year in the life of the project with Column F used for the first year of the project life You can locate a specific Input Category in Table 1C by eith
13. 0 8 059 Last Year of Operations2025 0 Months 0 Capacity Factor in Periodic Major Maintenance Years Major Maintenance Frequency Every 5 Years Capacity Factor in Major Maint Yrs 7 446 Table 1 allows you to input individual capacity factors during the first four years and in the fifth and succeeding years of the project life This is intended to allow you to more easily model the learning curve that new projects may undergo during the first few years of operation Alternatively annual capacity factors can be specified for any year during the project life in Table 1C Table 1 also allows you to specify the plant capacity factor during years when major plant outages occur In the example above in every fifth year of operation the plant capacity factor will be reduced from 92 to 85 for an extended outage 09 29 2010 Page 90 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 f Switches Switches in Table 1 provide the user with the options to turn ON or OFF certain calculations in the model The Switches are controlled by Excel Checkboxes Figure 38 Table 1 Global Inputs Switches Switches Check Boxes Selected Calculate NPV to Year of Financial Closing to by EOY 2003 Carry Forward Tax Losses YES Issue Shares for Project Equity YES The Switches are Calculate NPV to Financial Closing If this checkbox is selected the NPV calculation is performed to the date of fi
14. 09 29 2010 Page 37 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 to generate the selected Tornado Diagram Either showing IRR or NPV Results After Tax After selecting this button the following Tornado Diagram will be generated The horizontal bars illustrate how changes in the identified inputs would impact the project s IRR The results are sorted in order of significance giving the Tornado effect Note that the titles on the left axis identify the base case leveraged and unleveraged IRRs the Base Year value for the input and the Increment that was used Figure 21 Example Tornado Diagram Tornado Diagram Sensitivity of Leveraged After Tax IRR to Changes in Capital Fixed O amp M and Major Maintenance Related Inputs Change in Leveraged IRR from Base Case 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 Base Case 20 yr Leveraged IRR 19 4 Base Case 20 yr Unleveraged IRR 12 2 Capital Investment 359 635 1000 10 0 Annual Capacity Factor 91 0 Annual Average 5 0 All Major Maint Cap amp Exp 5 yr avg 6 565 1000 in 2002 25 0 Capitalzied Major Maint 5 yr avg 6 565 1000 in 2002 25 0 All Fixed O amp M Costs 5 yr avg 2 500 1000 in 2002 25 0 Plant Labor Fixed O amp M 5 yr avg 2 500 1000 in 2002 25 0 Insurance 5 yr avg 3 013 1000 in 2002 25 0 Property Taxes 5 yr avg 3 013 1000 in 2002 25 0 User Defined Category 2 Fixe
15. 1000 and kw o Annual Plant Capacity Factor o Fixed O amp M Expenses including e User Defined Category 1 e User Defined Category 2 e All 5 Additional User Defined Expenses Fields in Table 1C See Page 118 o Major Maintenance Expenses e All Capitalized and Expensed Major Maintenance e Capitalized Major Maintenance e Expensed Major Maintenance o Property Taxes and Insurance e Property Taxes e Insurance e Revenue Related Inputs o Energy Sales Applies to Periods Defined by the User in Table 1 or Table 1C e 8760 Hour Average including all periods listed below e Period 1A e Period 2A e Period 1B e Period 2B o Other Revenue Sources e All Revenues including those listed below and Other By Product Sales Other Energy Sales e Capacity Ancillary Services Payments e Steam Sales e All 5 User Defined Additional Revenue Fields in Table 1C See Page 117 The Sensitivity Sheet is used to generate the tables used for the Tornado Diagrams The Increments used for the Tornado Diagrams are entered in the Data Input Sheet that is opened when you select the respective Tornado Diagram from the SENSITIVITIES Menu An example of the Data Input Sheet that will be opened is provided below 09 29 2010 Page 36 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Figure 20 Tornado Diagrams Data Input Sheet Consolidated Tornado Diagram Copyright 2004 2010 CEI Inc All Rights Reserved Equity and Financing Revenues Operating Costs f f ES EE
16. 1000 yr 0 0 0 Additional Expenses 4 1000 yr Additional Expenses 5 1000S yr In all cases note that the entries to Table 1C are in Current i e include escalation 09 29 2010 Page 118 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 h Major Maintenance Expenses Capitalized and Expensed Major Maintenance Costs are costs incurred during extended plant outages Depending on the nature of the specific plant outages such costs can occur annually or periodically with a frequency of two to several years between outages Figure 66 Table 1C Annual Inputs Major Maintenance March 22 2003 Yr of Operation bar 1 2 3 4 5 Description 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Months of Operation During Year Holding Bin 3 is not labled 12 12 12 12 12 Shaded Cells Indicate Inputs Holding Bin 4 is not labled All Annual Inputs expressed at values are entered in Current Proforma Major Maintenance 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Expensed Major Maintenance 1000S yr 9999999 5000 Periodic Major Maintenance Amounts Accumulated in Major Maintenance Reserves Major Maintenance Years d zi YES Corresponding Annual Hours of Full Load Operation 1 8 059 8 059 8 059 8 059 7 446 Calculated Additional Operating Hours for Difficult Service 2 500 2 500 2 500 2 500 2 500 Calculated Annual Equivalent Operating Hours 10 559 10 559 10 559 10 559 9 946 Calculated Cumulative Equivalent Operating Hours 1 10 559 21 118 31 678 42
17. 15 ing OFF Peak 7x8 Period3 736 736 36 736 736 736 736 73 E 16 Summer ON Peak Duct Firing 5 x1 Period 4 1 040 1 040 1 040 1 040 e _ 1 040 Lt 17 Summer Mid Peak 2 x 16 Period 5 416 416 416 416 416 416 G Summer Se Peak 7x8 Periode mag mae ag m m m rag 728 Er 19 Fall ON Peak D 5x16 Period 10581 1053 1052 101 101 101 101 105 i 20 Fall Mid Pak x16 Periods 4u mj mj mj mj aa Pa Pa Winter ON Peak D Fir ig 5x 16 Period 10 1 029 1 029 1 029 1 029 1 029 l4 23 Winter Mid Peak 2 x16 Period m m m m m m m 4 Winter OFF Peak 7 x8 Period 12 m 720 720 720 720 720 H 25 Period 13 27 Period 15 28 Perod16 o 1 l1 1E IE JE 4 30 Period 18 ns Period 20 MENEEEEEEN EE Lc E G 35 Period 23 36 Period 24 Diff 0 37 Total 8 760 3 760 8 760 8 760 8 760 8 760 8 760 8 760 Biv M 4 gt vif Title f Status Sensitivities Project Summary Data Conversion Table 1 Global Inputs Table 1C Annual Inputs Table2Summary Table 3Consi P iDrawy Auosases 1OBI4 mum O Z A S SO 09 29 2010 Page 47 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Input rows are unprotected and shaded in green Energy and Fuel prices and plant performance parameters can be entered in up to twenty four different block periods Below
18. 237 Additional EOH due to Start ups Steam Injection or other service 0 iation Life Major Maintenance Hr Cost Factor 0 5 Other Capitalized Major Maintenance in the Yrs that Expenses Occur n 5 Year Life at 2 0 Declining Balance 1000S yr 9999999 20000 10 Year Life at 2 0 Declining Balance 1000S yr Costs below are in addition to Periodic Major Maint and do not override Table 1 Global Inpu 15 Year Life at 1 5 Declining Balance 1000S yr 20 Year Life at 1 5 Declining Balance 1000S yr 1 Expensed Major Maintenance Expensed Major Maintenance costs are typically expenses for modifications or improvements to the facility that will have a useful life of 1 year or less Such Expensed Major Maintenance costs are expensed annually in the same manner as Fixed O amp M costs The user can enter Annual Expensed Major Maintenance Costs in 1000 year and such cost will be treated as an annual expense to the project These costs are expressed in Current and are not escalated Inputs will override corresponding entries to Table 1 In the example shown 2 000 000 of major maintenance expenses will be added in year 2 of the project life These costs will be expensed in year 2 Capitalized Major Maintenance Expenses Capital Improvements Capitalized Major Maintenance Expenses are typically expenses for modifications or improvements to the facility that will have a useful life of 2 or more years Such Ca
19. Additional Major Maintenance Expenses that are depreciated over periods that the user can also define ii Expensed Major Maintenance Expensed Major Maintenance costs are typically expenses related to modifications or improvements to the facility that will have a useful life of 1 year or less Such Expensed Major Maintenance costs are expensed annually in the same manner as Fixed O amp M The user can enter Expensed Major Maintenance Costs in Table 1 in 1000 year and such costs will be treated as an annual expense to the project These costs are expressed in Base Year Note that real escalation will be added to the GNP Escalator to arrive at the actual escalation for that component For additional information on GNP and Real escalation see page 86 The user may also enter Expensed Major Maintenance costs in the Annual Inputs Table where options are provided to override the annual costs described here If desired the user may alternatively provide annual Capitalized and Expensed Major Maintenance Costs in Table 1C 09 29 2010 Page 101 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 p Capital Investment Costs Capital Investment Costs are input only in Table 1 These are costs incurred during the project development engineering and construction phases of the project but prior to commercial operations of the facility Please note that these costs are not escalated by the model and are used as the exact amounts entered by the u
20. Capitalized Major Maintenance Expenses which can be depreciated over 5 10 15 or 20 year lives for book and for tax purposes The Depreciation Factor used to determine the rate of straight line or accelerated depreciation for the costs entered in each row can also be defined by the user These 1000 yr costs are expressed in Current and are not escalated Costs entered in this section of Table 1C do not impact Major Maintenance Reserves and are treated as a one time major maintenance expense that is depreciated over the specified term and at the rate specified by the Depreciation Factor The cost entries are in addition to Major Maintenance expenses and are calculated from the factors discussed above They do not override any other inputs 09 29 2010 Page 120 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 i Financing Terms Primary and Subordinated Debt The user can specify Annual debt terms for Primary and Subordinated Debt in Table 1C including Principal Repayment Schedule The user can input the annual percentage of the initial debt balance or the annual 1000 amount of principal to be repaid in any year during the life of the subject loan This section can be used to model accelerated or deferred principal repayments including sweeps and extension of principal repayments Amounts entered here will override the standard mortgage style principal repayment schedule calculated based on Table 1 Inputs Note that Principal Repayments s
21. Constr ctlOh 1 3 e Rh ore rtr electa cadets eiae ah Canes eatin 72 11 Tables 4 Operatimg C oSts c ue iet ect te e eru tr e t tbe e etse ied e 73 12 Table 5 Debt Service 1 ii Tee e ie E ace E EE Lice La Eua e Pod ae Edo P euo HERR BAL Eo e o Log 74 13 Table 6 Revenues eene Ne tete Hte hoses He ee orte bre a een tr ete ede tee de Lee dede 75 14 Table 7 Cash Plow Leveraged issi e rettet He Ree p M pae entered 76 15 Table 7A Cash Flow Unleveraged 4 eere receta eo o ree e TE Ier reas 76 16 Table 8 NPV amp IRR Eev raged i ie te i aT E tenere ee Hi EG Re tute ttes 76 17 Table gA NPV amp IRR Unleveraged hee ence ce eti Ee sachs Heer M EE bet eet Eee iC TI 18 Table Y Sources and Uses Accs n ere te eee ep edere ee ies e Pep P ehe tos REN TT 19 Table 10 Major Maintenance sisi iad ee nete eet ie itae eie ae e L a ele TI 20 Table ll Financials ie iie Te lees het Re lesen les ate nee dedi ad eets 78 21 Table 12 Doll rs per MWH e eie detecte eet t de de eee ee tertie 79 22 Table I3 Depr ciatiOn ecce e eee enter tpe eee PHI ee etant ote deter ut ee Peta 79 23 Graphs Sensitivity 1 4 Included in Separate Sensitivity Charts File eee 80 24 Tornado and Parametric Sensitivities eese essent enne enne 80 25 Graphs Current Case 6 8 gd iie Ud ce Ee dde oeste eode iee dent ete 80 D Inputs to the EconExpert Model 14i ed en ter aeter ree PER e Eier en 81 T
22. Energy Prices by Period Fuel Prices by Period EP Model Fuel Quality EP Model Environmental Controls EP Model o SO2 Removal o NOx Removal Other Revenues o Renewable Energy Credits o Capacity Payments Raw Materials and Operating Costs o Reagent Costs o Variable O amp M o Fixed O amp M Major Maintenance Costs Investment Costs o Phase 1 Project Development o Phase 2 Engineering Construction and Start up o Soft Costs o Plant Salvage Value Construction Financing Permanent Financing o Senior Debt Structure o Subordinated Debt Structure Sources of Capital Summary Depreciation Income Taxes and Investment Tax Credits Property Taxes and Insurance The Appendix also provides examples on how to use the various Global Inputs A variety of Cell Help Comments also appear with each input in Table 1 To view the comments first enable them from the EconExpert Help Menu and then place the cursor over the red triangle on the corner of the respective cell 09 29 2010 Page 83 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 PLEASE NOTE Operating Expense and Revenue premises are input to Table 1 in BASE YEAR This means that the cost and revenue entries to Table 1 will be escalated using a combination of the GNP escalation rate and the real escalation rate for that component Entries to the Global Input Sheet will also be prorated for partial year operation in the first or last year of the project life
23. Factor 96 St up Mobiliz Spares 96 Fixed O amp M 650 5 096 775 Working Capital months of fuel 4 138 1 0 11 080 Debt Reserve or Mos of Payments 7 963 3 0 15 780 Sub Total Soft Costs 1000 27 635 Total Capital Costs before Interest 1000 359 635 Loan Commitment Fee 4 198 Interest During Construction 26 589 Total As Built Capital with IDC 1000 390 422 kW 781 09 29 2010 Page 103 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 iii Plant Salvage Value at the End of the Project Life Following the Capital Investment Cost table the user is provided with the option to recover a terminal or salvage value on the plant investment at the end of the Project Life The salvage value can be specified both as an amount and as a percentage of the original plant basis If both inputs are used the result will be the sum of the two inputs This input is shown in the Figure below Figure 51 Salvage Value at the End of the Project Life Salvage Value Amount 1000 of Capital 1000 Calculated Salvage Value 1000 36 420 If a plant salvage is included the percentage of the plant basis that is depreciated should either be reduced by the percentage of the salvage value or a capital gains tax should be specified to be applied against the lump sum income that is recovered when the project is retired 09 29 2010 Page 104 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 q Financing Terms Construction Fina
24. Fee of Undrawn Balance 4 0 As Spent Amount Financed Less Interest and Fees 359 635 359 635 Loan Commitment Fees 4 198 4 198 Interest Accrued During Construction 26 589 26 589 Total 390 422 390 422 Financed with Debt 100 0 Permanent Financing during Operations Project Life 20 Years Percent Equity 40 096 During Operations Primary Debt Pct of Funds Borrowed on 1 1 2003 Amount 70 0 163 977 163 977 Total Term years id 15 lYears Interest Rate 8 5 Interest Only Term Incl in total term 0 Amortization Term years 15 Annual Financing Fees 1000 100 Subordinate Debt Pct of Funds Borrowed on 1 1 2003 Amount 30 096 70 276 70 276 Total Term years 8 Years Interest Rate 8 0 Interest Only Term Incl in total term 4 Amortization Term years r4 Annual Financing Fees 1000 Interest Only Payments Made on Sub Debt 09 29 2010 Page 105 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 r Sources of Capital A summary of sources of capital for the project is provided in this section The figure below shows these amounts Sources are shown for the total project and for the Owner s Percentage Interest in the project Figure 53 Sources of Capital Summary in Table 1 Sources of Capital Project Total Owners 100 Share Equity at Start of Operations 175 342 175 342 Senior Primary Debt 184 109 184 109 Subordinate Debt 78 904
25. Power Sold during On Peak MWH 5 AE Variable O amp M Category 1 MWH 96 of Total Investment 1000 Power Sold durinq Mid Peak MWH aa Variable O amp M Category 2 MWH onstruction Financing 96 Power Sold during Off Peak MWH Materials 000s yr yrs Power Sold during Super Peak MWH o All In Delivered Energy Prices MWH fo mp Interest Rate on Senior Primary Debt 96 erm of Senior Primary Debt Years Interest Rate on Subordinated Debt erm of Subordinated Debt Years yrs apanr Ancillary Services Sales 96 of Fixed O amp M Category 4 000s Fixed O amp M Category 5 000s Fixed O amp M Category 6 000s Property Taxes of Costs 1000 Capital Investment and Capacity Factor apital Investment 96 of Initial Investment apacity Factor 96 of Annual MWH Annual Custom Revenues 2 Annual Custom Revenues 3 Annual Custom Revenues 4 Insurance b of Costs 1000 apitalized Major Maint 96 of Costs s Annual Custom Revenues 1 9 Annual Custom Revenues 5 1000 Click to Create Click to Create IRR Tornado Diagram NPV Tornado Diagram Print Form Close Form HELP a ee Annual Custom Expenses 4 The white boxes in this sheet are the locations where you tell EconExpert over what range Increment that you would like the model to vary each of the specified inputs Once you have established the Increments select the button labeled Click to Create ornado Diagram
26. TORNADO DIAGRAMS to Mid 2009 000s e Po 494 Bt o tst co Proforma NOTES Inputs examples and descriptions provided by CEI in the Model are or training purposes only CEI makes no representations with respect to the accuracy of such inputs examples or descriptions These inputs should not be used for analysis of a real PV Facility Capacity Section 2 PV Energy Sales Profile Section 4 Period 1 Specify Base Units MW MW 000s or kw kw On Peak Rated Het PV Facility Capacity MW of Annual MWH Produced 60 0 a Degradation after 1 Year a Real Annual Degradation after 2 Years yr Period 1 2 3 4 Energy Prices MWH Escalation Economic Factors Energy Sales MWH Base Year Constant Dollar in Mid Year Less Transmission Wheeling MWH Year to Calculate XPV to Net Energy Price to Customer MWH 200 00 GHP Escalation Rate for Revs amp Exps o o Ready At the top of Table 1 Users can select a check box to utilize the XIRR function in Microsoft Excel The XIRR function will compute mid year IRRs and NPVs as opposed to the IRR function which calculates IRRs and NPVs assuming end of year cash flows In order to use the XIRR function you must have the Analysis Tool Pak Add In installed Inputs to Table 1 are organized into categories of inputs that can be located using the NAVIGATE Menu or by scrolling through the Table Table 1 is Range Protected allowing you to enter data ONLY
27. Works developed by Users of the Model and CEI assumes no responsibility for or obligation relative to the performance of or defects in Microsoft Excel EXCEPT FOR THE WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS EXPRESSLY SET FORTH HEREIN COMPETITIVE ENERGY INSIGHT INC DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WITH RESPECT TO THE MODEL AND ITS CONFORMITY TO ANY SPECIFICATIONS OR DESCRIPTION INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION ANY IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR THAT THE MODEL OR THE RESULTS THEREFROM SHALL BE ERROR FREE CHECK YOUR WORK THE RESULTS GENERATED BY THIS MODEL ARE YOUR RESPONSIBILITY 6 Technical Assistance Licensee and its Authorized Users shall be entitled to 30 days of free technical assistance applied only to the installation and use of the Models which will be provided via phone Internet or e mail during the first 30 days of an initial subscription period Technical assistance beyond this 30 day period or any on site technical assistance shall be provided at the discretion of CEI and may be billed to client at CEI s then current consulting rates for technical assistance 7 Installation of the Model The electronic software provided by CEI under this Agreement will be subject to a limited installation period after which the software provided may not install properly on the User s Computer s If appropriate CEI can provide replacement electronic copies of the software
28. amp M Category 1 defined by the user in Table 1 as Plant Labor will be set to 2 000 000 in the third year of operation The second User Defined Fixed O amp M category which has not been named by the user in Table 1 will be set to 3 000 000 In other years the inputs will default back to Table 1 Global Input Entries The user may input 1000 of Additional Annual Operating Expenses in any of five User Defined Categories Values are input in Current and are not escalated These amounts are added to other expenses calculated from Table 1 Inputs and from the items listed above These costs can be fixed or variable depending how the user defines them The titles entered will appear in the various reports throughout the model The labels input by the user will appear in the corresponding tables and reports throughout the model Note that the user may also define the titles for these User Defined Categories These titles will be accessible for Sensitivities and will be updated when on the EconExpert Menu is refreshed a User Defined Labels and Additional Annual Expenses Months Bf Operation During Year i puts Figure 65 Table 1C Annual Inputs Fixed and Variable O amp M Inputs March 22 2003 Yr of Operation Ear 1 2 3 4 Description 2006 2007 2008 2009 Holding Bin 3 is not labled 12 12 12 12 Holding Bin 4 is not labled Proforma pe 0 Additional Expenses 2 1000 yr Al 0 Additional Expenses 3
29. an input escalates at a rate higher than inflation its Real Escalation Rate would be greater than 0 0 and similarly it would be negative if the input escalates at a rate lower than the general inflation rate The Discount Rates used for NPV Calculations on a leveraged and an unleveraged basis These are the rates used in Tables 8A and 8B for calculating the Net Present Value of the project discounted to the year of financial closing They are normally the cost of capital for the corporation Rate on 6 Month Certificate of Deposit This is the rate earned on escrowed funds including Debt Reserves Major Maintenance Reserves and Debt Reserves If desired the user may alternatively provide an annual schedule of GNP Escalation Rates in Table IC 09 29 2010 Page 86 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 c Equity and Project Ownership Equity and Project Ownership Equity Debt During Construction 0 0 100 0 During Operations P Owner s Interest in the Project 100 095 The Figure below shows the inputs included in this section of Table 1 Figure 35 Table 1 Global Inputs Owner s Interest in the Project Inputs in this section include Equity During the Construction Phase This is the percentage of the costs realized during the construction phase that are funded with Owner s Equity If set to 0 debt will be used to finance 10046 of the construction period costs Costs during the co
30. are protected by copyright law and international treaties The Model and accompanying documentation include copyright notices prominently displayed in the Model on reports generated and produced by the Model and in the User s Manual Use of the Model outside of the License term is expressly prohibited For information regarding the Model please contact Competitive Energy Insight Inc 12025 Blue Diamond Court San Diego CA 92131 Telephone 858 566 0221 Fax 858 566 0287 Email Info CEInsight com Website http www CElInsight com The EconExpert User s Manual can be downloaded for free from the Website 12 Jurisdiction This Agreement shall be governed by and interpreted in accordance with the laws of the State of California without reference to its rules on conflicts of laws The sole jurisdiction and venue for any litigation arising out of this Agreement shall be an appropriate federal or state court in California San Diego County 13 Entire Agreement This Agreement and any other addenda hereto that have been signed by CEI and Licensee contain the entire Agreement between the parties hereto with respect to the subject matter hereof and supersede any and all prior understandings correspondence and Agreements oral or written between the parties with respect thereto No change amendment or modification of this Agreement shall be valid or binding upon the parties unless such change amendment or modification shall be in writi
31. are the annual fixed payments made by rate payers to the regulated utility to maintain the annual Return on Equity at the Target Value Variable costs including fuel and other variable O amp M are calculated as an energy charge pass through e Public Power Economics The annual project Rate Base for a Public Power Utility is calculated based on a Target Debt Coverage Ratio The Debt Coverage Ratio is calculated in the model results calculated in Table 5 Debt Service The Revenue Requirements are the annual fixed payments made by rate payers to the public utility to maintain the annual Debt Coverage Ratio at the Target Value Variable costs including fuel and other variable O amp M are calculated as an energy charge pass through Project Valuation Calculations EconExpert includes an automated feature that allows you to calculate the valuation of a project or asset based on the target IRR or NPV that a for profit investor would target to achieve The valuation of the project can be determined based on a target leveraged with financing or unleveraged based on 100 equity investment scenario EconExpert will report to you the change in valuation from the base case and the net project valuation exclusive of the investor s development and soft costs Project Valuation Sensitivities After identifying the project valuation you can perform automated sensitivities analysis to determine how changes in specified inputs would impact that valuation Tor
32. by the terms of this Agreement If you can not agree to the terms of this Agreement please press the DECLINE button below and destroy the software and all accompanying items including printed materials and packaging if applicable 1 Description of the Model The EconExpert PV Financial Model FconExpert or the Model is a spreadsheet designed to assist users with the financial analysis of Photo Voltaic based electric power generation projects The Model requires the installation and use of Microsoft Excel for which Licensee must possess a valid license Licensee and Licensee s authorized users of the Model must use software and hardware that satisfy 10 the minimum requirements specified in the Model s User s Manual mM 4 nN License Title Data Conversion Table 1PV Global Inputs Table 1C Annual Input lt Ready The EconExpert Software License is presented If desired you may print the license by clicking on either of the Print License buttons at the top of the Screen If you read the license on your monitor be sure to scroll down the screen and read ALL of the applicable license terms A copy of the EconExpert Software License is also included in the Appendix to the User s Manual 09 29 2010 Page 22 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Step 5 At the conclusion of the Software License you will be provided with the option to ACCEPT or DECLINE the EconExpert Software License Agreement READ TH
33. can occur annually or periodically with a frequency of two to several years between outages Major Maintenance Expenses that cover operations over multiple years are termed Capital Improvements and so are depreciated for Book and for Cash Purposes Expenses that are repeated annually are expensed in the same manner as Fixed O amp M costs Figure 48 Table 1 Global Inputs Major Maintenance Capitlaized Major Maint Outage every 5 Years EOH Equivalent Operating Hours Real Addit EOH due to Start ups Steam Inj 2 500 EOH yr id Escalation 96 Y Major Maintenance Hr Cost Factor 150 00 EOH Deposits to Major Maint Reserve 3 709 1000 Year to Reserves for Total EOH 0 0 Oth Deposits to Major Maint Reserves 1000 Year 8 709 Total 1000 yr to Major Maint Resvs Expensed Major Maint Fixed 1000 Year i Capitalized Major Maintenance Expenses Capital Improvements Capitalized Major Maintenance Expenses are typically expenses for modifications or improvements to the facility that will have a useful life of 2 or more years Such Capitalized Major Maintenance Expenses are depreciated over the term of their useful life EconExpert offers the user several approaches for entering Capitalized Major Maintenance Expenses The approaches included in Table 1 are Periodic Major Maintenance Expenses Deposits to Major Maintenance Reserves computed based on Equivalent Operating Hours of Plant Servi
34. columns to the right in Table 1C each represent a year in the life of the project with Column F used for the first year of the project life You can locate a specific Input Category in Table 1C by either scrolling through the table or by using the NAVIGATE Feature on the Command Menu Individual input titles in Table 1C appear on the left of the table followed by the Input Indicator and notes about the group of inputs On the right side of the table shaded cells provide locations for inputs of annual data starting in the first operating year of the project life Table 1C is organized in the following sections Cost Factors Base year annual GNP deflator and discount rates Plant Performance Capacity capacity factor and heat rate Energy Sales Period Profiles Allocation of period energy consumption and energy pricing by period Other Revenues Capacity and Steam sales plus five User Defined Revenue fields Fuel Quality Btu ash and sulfur inputs for solid fuel fired applications Fuel Pricing by Period and Operating Costs Including five User Defined expense fields Major Maintenance Equivalent operating hours calculations and capitalized and expensed major maintenance Debt Service Custom interest rate and debt payment schedules Property Taxes Insurance Deductions Income Taxes and After Tax Dividends Corporate Stock Performance Examples of how you can use Annual Inputs to Table 1C to perform custom calculations incl
35. generate the Tornado Diagrams You can view the results of the Tornado Analyses in table form or in graphical form as described next Additional discussion of the Tornado Diagrams and Tornado Tables is provided on page 136 e Project Valuation Tables and Graphs EconExpert includes an automated feature that allows you to automatically calculate the valuation of a project or asset based on the target Internal Rate of Return IRR that a for profit investor would target to achieve This feature can be accessed from the SENSITIVITIES Menu The valuation of the project can be determined based on a target leveraged with financing or unleveraged based on 100 equity investment scenario EconExpert will report to you the change in valuation from the base case and the net project valuation exclusive of the investor s development and soft costs e Sensitivity Tables and Graphs Select to view the Sensitivity Tables and to edit the increments used for the various automated Sensitivity Analyses that can be generated by EconExpert You can view the results of the Sensitivity Analyses in table form or in graphical form as described next Additional discussion of the Sensitivity Input Tables is provided on page 63 and page 131 09 29 2010 Page 28 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 2 PRINT The PRINT Menu provides you with options for printing Tables and Graphs generated by the EconExpert model Tables and graphs in the mod
36. of Annual MH Produced 0 0 F 38 Real Re 39 i B ill Period 1AB 2AB Energy Prices Escalation 96 JAMAH Escalati 4o Energy Sales MVVH 0 0 0 00 0 0 Less Transmission vheeling SAMAH s 0 00 0 0 az Economic Factors Net Energy Price to Customer SAMAH 44 00 E 28 00 00 43 Base Year Constant Dollar in Mid Year 44 Pi d 1 2 Fuel Prices Period 1AB 33 x 45 GNP Escalation Rate for Revs amp Exps Gas FOB Supplier 0 00 SiMMBtu 9 0 s Discount Rate for Leveraged NPV 1 Transportation 1 6 00 SMMBtu 0 0 az Discount Rate for Unleveraged NPV Transportation 2 000 MMBtu 0 0 as Interest Rate Earned on Escrowed Funds Net Delivered Fuel Price A SMMBtu 0 0 a so Equity and Project Ownership Equity Debt Fuel Quality Selected Fuel GAS s During Construction 0 0 100 0 Higher Heating Value of Fuel 9 Btwscr 2 52 During Operations 0 0 60 0 bi s Ash in the Fuel by Weight 0 00 Ib Ash MM 54 Owner s 96 Interest in the Project 0 0 Sulfur in the Fuel by Weight 0 00 lb SO2 7MM ss Full Screen Y X Fnvirnnmnental Controls star Esp 5 amp 3Eco s 9 yts2 ite Stxts2 Amici ESHSOOSR sm The ORANGE shaded cells indicate where input changes have occurred in the TARGET file relative to the REFERENCE file and identify the amount and direction of the change Eile Edit view Insert Format Tools Data Window Help Acrobat NAVIGATE PRINT SENSITIVITIES U
37. of this software can be completed you must accept the terms of the License Agreement the Agreement below by clicking on the I HAVE READ AND ACCEPT button at the end of this Agreement If you do not accept the License Agreement terms you are not authorized to use the EconExpert Model This is a legal agreement between you the Licensee either an individual or an entity as the original purchaser and Competitive Energy Insight Inc CED By pressing the ACCEPT button below you agree to be bound by the terms of this Agreement If you can not agree to the terms of this Agreement please press the DECLINE button below and destroy the software and all accompanying items including printed materials and packaging if applicable 1 Description of the Model The EconExpert PV Financial Model EconExpert or the Model is a spreadsheet designed to assist users with the financial analysis of Photo Voltaic based electric power generation projects The Model requires the installation and use of Microsoft Excel amp for which Licensee must possess a valid license Licensee and Licensee s authorized users of the Model must use software and hardware that satisfy the minimum requirements specified in the Model s User s Manual 2 License Rights This Agreement provides Licensee and its Authorized Users with a limited nonexclusive nontransferable license right to install and to use the Model on specific desktop and laptop computers Authoriz
38. represents the composite average allowing for station service consumption ps FuelSelection Enter 1 for Coal Coke Wood or Oil Enter 2 for Gash PTT TET T TET or Escalation SM If the annual heat rate is not constant over the life of the project Le Due to Economic Factors performance degradation etc annual net plant heat rates can be entered in Base Year Constant Dollar in Mid Year t Table 1C Annual Inputs Non Zero values entered in Table 1 C will override this value in the years that they are entered GNP Escalation Rate for Revs amp Exps Discount Rate for Leveraged NPV Discount Rate for Unieveraged N NPV Transportation 1 SSS Transportation 2 SSS to by EOY 2003S Cell C37 commented by Steve Provol NUM 09 29 2010 Page 59 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 C Worksheet Tabs Tabs at the bottom of the spreadsheet identify the various worksheets and tables in the EconExpert Model The Worksheet Tabs are listed below and described individually in more detail in the pages that follow License This sheet includes the EconExpert Software License Agreement Users are required to acknowledge acceptance of the License Agreement in order to enable the model Title This is the EconExpert Title Sheet and Copyright notice Status This sheet provides you with valuable information on the status of the current setup of the model Potential conflicts be
39. resulting monthly expenditures described above Loan Commitment Fees are based on the monthly undrawn balance 09 29 2010 Page 72 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 11 Tables 4 Operating Costs Table 4 provides calculations of all operating expenses and related escalation factors Escalated annual fixed and variable operating expenses are computed in 1000 yr based on inputs to Tables 1 and 1C using on the Owner s percentage interest in the project Table 4 is organized as follows The top Section of Table 4 Provides Operating Cost Factors and Escalation Rates including o Fueland Raw Material Use EP Model o Escalation Rates o Escalation Indices for Expense Items o Escalated Operating Costs assuming 100 Load Factor and 100 Ownership Table 4A shown in the bottom section of Table 4 provides Escalated Annual Operating Costs in 1000 year based on the capacity factor and Owner s Percentage Interest in the project o Operating Costs are itemized in detail If less than 100 Ownership has been specified the costs shown here will be prorated based on the Owners Share of the total project o The accumulated balances in the Major Maintenance Reserve are also illustrated based on use of those funds at the frequency specified in Table 1 Global Inputs Itemized operating cost categories provided in Table 4A include EP Model Only o Period 1 Fuel Combined MWH from Energy Pricing Periods 1A and 1B o Period
40. results consistent with the current case The Increments are entered into a Data Input Sheet provided by EconExpert when you select the respective Tornado Diagram Option from the Command Menu The term used for all of the Tornado Diagrams is entered at the top of Table 1 The Tornado Diagrams provide plots of leveraged and unleveraged IRR versus the variations in the selected parameter It is important to note that the Tornado Diagrams are not updated automatically Prior to printing the Tornado Diagrams they must be updated by running the corresponding Tornado Diagrams for the current case This can be accomplished by selecting the SENSITIVITIES Option on the EconExpert Command Menu Each of the Tornado Diagrams must be individually generated 25 Graphs Current Case 6 8 Three worksheets in EconExpert provide the graphical results that are produced for the current case in the model Graphs on these sheets are updated each time the spreadsheet is recalculated It is not necessary to execute a macro from the EconExpert Command Menu to update these graphs 09 29 2010 Page 80 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 D Inputs to the EconExpert Model Three approaches can be used to input data into the EconExpert Model e Table 1 GLOBAL Inputs is the only mandatory input sheet in the model It allows you to enter values that typically apply and may escalate at a constant rate over the life of the project e Table IC ANNUAL Inputs al
41. the EconExpert Financial Model User ACCEPTS or DECLINES acceptance of the terms of this Software License Agreement If the License is declined the EconExpert Model will not be fully installed and should not be used 09 29 2010 Page 139 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 TM Overview of CEPs EconExpert Software Suite Competitive Energy Insight CEI established in 1997 has developed a suite of mature and highly advanced software products for the analysis of investments in renewable energy central power stations commodity liquid and gaseous products and combined heat and power We both license these models for your direct use and use them broadly in our project development consulting practice serving as a bench to support your in house team All of the EconExpert tools are Excel based making them completely customizable auditable and adding all of the features of Excel to EconExpert s powerful features and architecture Importantly the EconExpert Models are far more than spreadsheets Behind each model is powerful Visual Basic programming that provides highly advanced menu wizard driven functionality taking Excel and your analysis capability to a completely new level Standardized accurate and applicable from simple screening to bank quality investment grade analysis of virtually any project investment acquisition or divestiture EconExpert has been applied to literally billions of dollars of energy project investments i
42. the spreadsheet will work effectively with a very wide variety of computer hardware operating systems and versions of Microsoft Excel the following minimum system requirements are recommended Hardware e 128 MB or more of Random Access Memory e fit is desired to print very large multiple table reports from the model it is recommended that you have your system configured with at least 2MB of printer spooling memory This can be as network or computer RAM or as a memory module on the printer e A Graphics Capable Display with setting of at least 800 x 600 Pixels and preferably 1024 x 768 Pixels e A Graphics Capable printer e Atleast 30MB of available storage on you C hard drive This memory is needed for the initial installation only After the installation is completed the model can be saved and operated on the installed PC from any local or network drive Software e Microsoft Windows XP or Windows Vista Windows 7 or later Operating Systems e Microsoft Office 2002 Office XP or Office Vista 2007 2010 or later equivalent versions of Microsoft Excels e Recommended WinZip or the equivalent for decompressing the original files Note that if requested the EconExpert model and documentation can be provided as self extracting exe files that will not require the installation or use of WinZip to decompress the files The model is not conventionally delivered this way as many Network Administrators will not allow exe files as a
43. used for performing financial analysis of fossil generating projects using virtually any technology type including gas fired coal fired petroleum coke fired oil fired or wood fired units applied to greenfield or brownfield projects acquisitions repowering or unit replacements The Tutorial is Self Guided and will provide you with options to skip major sections or to exit the Tutorial at numerous points Select OK to proceed The Tutorial will describe the following features of the model Command Menus and their Sub Menus Help Features Tips on Saving and Re enabling the Model Worksheet Tabs and Tables in the Model including discussions of Inputs to the Model Tips on Customizing the Model Information on How to Enable or Extend Your License to Use the Model When viewing the Tutorial you will be provided with options at various times to skip forward to a later section or to end the Tutorial 09 29 2010 Page 26 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 B The EconExpert Command Menu EconExpert includes a Custom Command Menu that appears on the Excel Menu Bar to the right of the Excel Help Option The EconExpert Command Menu provides you with access to and control of the EconExpert Model s special functions and On Line Help Features The menu will be added to the Excel Menu bar each time that you open the EconExpert model and will be deleted each time you close it If you become locked up in Windows when EconExpe
44. windows If they do not to add a window from the Excel Command Menu select Window New Window from the Excel menu to add a window to the file where it is required The Figure on the next page illustrates how changes in the Global Inputs Sheet are highlighted The Current Target case is illustrated in a new worksheet with each of the input cells that have changed highlighted in ORANGE 09 29 2010 Page 56 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Figure 27 Comparing Data Files Quantifying the Difference in Inputs and Results in a TARGET File versus a REFERENCE FILE File Edit View Insert Format Tools Data Window Help Acrobat NAVIGATE PRINT SENSITIVITIES UTILITIES EconExpert HELP ENABLE MODEL m x N O a o O O Select Checkbox to Use XIRR XIRR Requires Analysis ToolPak LI IRR Selected Table 1 Section 1A GLOBAL INPUTS l Global Inputs Holding Bin 1 is Not Labled z FACERCEI ProformatCEl Commeriggr Shaded Areas Indicate Inputs Name of File Deita Changes in Inputs and Res p Global Inputs Holding Bin 2 is Not Labled Active Annual Inputs Sheet is Not Labeled HPV TER SENSIT STUL HPY to by EOY 2003 1000 Ho Annual Inputs Used AND TOI DIAGR HPV and IRR Summary o s 35 Period 1B 3 Period1B 3 36
45. you can define User Defined Expenses five categories that you can define Other Capitalized Major Maintenance Additional Tax Deductions Adjustments to State and Federal Depreciation Schedules Additional State Taxes Additional Federal Taxes After tax Dividends Each of these are noted in Table 1C All of the other inputs will override Table 1 Inputs in AND ONLY IN the years that non zero values appear in Table 1C If Annual Inputs are entered in every year of the project life the corresponding Global Inputs entered in Table 1 will be totally overridden and will not be used in the analysis If Annual Inputs are only entered in some years then the Global Inputs will be used in all other years applying escalation where appropriate If Annual Inputs are entered into any cell in Table 1C the respective Input Indicator will show the value Column C along the left side of the respective inputs which will also be reformatted to If there are no entries in a row then a red 0 will appear A 0 advises you that NO Annual Inputs have been entered in that row A 9999999 indicates that an Annual Input has been entered in one or more years over the project life even if such entries do not appear on your current screen view In this case the corresponding input to Table 1 will also be reformatted to Bold Red and a red warning labeled Annual Inputs will also appear near to the input in Table 1 advising you that an Annual Input value h
46. yr 955 J w yrthereafter Period 1 2 3 4 Energy Prices MWH Escalation MWH Economic Factors Energy Sales MWH 200 00 150 1 Base Year Constant Dollar in Mid Year 2010 l Less Transmission Wheeling MWH Year to Calculate XIIPV to 2009 Net Energy Price to Customer MWH 200 00 150 GHP Escalation Rate for Revs amp Exps Discount Rate for Leveraged xn A Ito Mid 2009 000s M License Title Data Conversion X Table 1 PV Global Inputs Table 1C Annual Inputs Table lt Ready Inputs to Table 1 are organized into categories of inputs that can be located using the NAVIGATE Menu or by scrolling through the Table Table 1 is Range Protected allowing you to enter data ONLY into specified shaded input cells Table 1 is organized into sections associated with the various classes of inputs 09 29 2010 Page 82 Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 The Input Categories in Table 1 are organized into four primary columns separated by Bold Red Lines Plant Capacity Heat Rate and Fuel Type EP Model Degradation PV Model Economic Factors Equity and Project Ownership Project Schedule Annual Plant Capacity Factor PV Model calculated based on PV Performance Criterea Capacity Factor in Major Maintenance Years Switches Owner s Stock Performance Energy and Fuel Pricing Period Profiles EP Model
47. 00 Additional State Taxes or Tax Credits as Negative Entry 1000 of After Tax Income Paid as Dividends to Shareholders After Tax Income Paid as Dividends to Shareholders 1000 Costs added to do not override Table 1 Global Inputs Costs added to do not override Table 1 Global Inputs Costs added to do not override Table 1 Global Inputs Costs added to do not override Table 1 Global Inputs _ Costs added to do not override Table 1 Global Inputs 4 4 4 4444 4 4 ooooooo ooo oe In addition the user can enter Annual Depreciation Rates Additional Deductions from State and Federal Taxes State and Federal Tax Rates Additional Tax Amounts and annual After Tax Dividends in any year that they might occur Note that Additional Deductions Additional Taxes and After Tax Dividends do not override amounts input to Table 1 Global Inputs k After Tax Dividends Annual Inputs The user can enter Dividend Amounts to be withdrawn from the project After Tax as a percentage of after tax net income or as a set amount If both entries are made they will be summed The resulting dividends are deducted from the net income after tax and will result in a reduction to the project s IRR and NPV after tax 09 29 2010 Page 122 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 D Computations of Owner s Stock Price Performance EconExpert includes analysis of predicted impacts of Share Dilution and Net Income on the price of the Owner s stock These
48. 1 Global Inputs For Table 1 Global Inputs e SAVE copies of the Active Global Input Table to either of two Holding Bins Labeled Holding Bin 1 and Holding Bin 2 This option allows you to save two different copies of input tables and then to make modifications to the respective input sheets without losing the saved sets of inputs When you SAVE the contents to the Holding Bin the current contents of the Holding Bin are overwritten e RESTORE copies of Global Input Tables that have been previously saved to either of two Holding Bins Labeled Holding Bin 1 and Holding Bin 2 This option allows you to recover the copies of input tables that have been previously saved When you RESTORE the contents from a Holding Bin the current contents of the Active Inputs Sheet are overwritten e EXCHANGE a copy of the Active Global Input Table with copies that have been previously saved in either of the two Holding Bins Labeled Holding Bin 1 and Holding Bin 2 This option allows you to flip the copies of input tables that have been previously saved with the active Table 1 Global Inputs Sheet When you EXCHANGE the contents with a Holding Bin the current contents of the Active Global Inputs Sheet are saved in the Holding Bin and the current contents of the Holding Bin are written to the Active Global Input Sheet Neither is lost e CLEAR the Global Inputs This option clears the Global Inputs Sheet of virtually all inputs allowing you to restart with a fresh ana
49. 1 below Figure 17 Inputting the Term of Sensitivity Analyses or Tornado Diagrams NPV TERM FOR SENSITIVITY IRR NPV to Financial Closing Dat w4000 to 2003 STUDIES AND TORNADO No Annual Inputs Used DIAGRAMS NPV and IRR Summary Years 10 15 20 Years 10 15 20 Discount Rate Leveraged 3 09 9 12 11 68 12 00 48 329 22 625 3 274 Unleveraged 0 70 6 03 8 32 10 00 169 118 101 943 54 097 Parameters for which Sensitivity Analyses can be performed include o Capital Cost 1000 and kw o Energy Price Applies to Periods Defined by the User in Tables 1 or 1C e 8760 Hour Average includes all periods listed below Period 1A Period 2A Period 1B Period 2B Periods 1A amp B Periods 2A amp B o Financing e Owner s Equity During Operations Phase Interest Rate on Construction Debt Interest Rate on Senior Debt Interest Rate on Subordinated Debt Term of Senior Debt Term of Subordinated Debt o Fixed O amp M Expenses e All Fixed O amp M Costs including those listed below e User Defined Category 1 e User Defined Category 2 09 29 2010 Page 32 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 e Additional Fixed O amp M o Fuel Price e Annual Period 1 and Period 2 Delivered with Transportation e Period 1 FOB Supplier without Transportation e Period 2 FOB Supplier without Transportation o Major Maintenance Expenses e All Capitalized and Expens
50. 10 Page 128 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Figure 71 The IRR Sensitivity Term Input to Table 1 EJ Microsoft Excel NO EconExpert PV Proforma V14 9025 4 2010 NO xls Insert Format Tools Data Window Help Adobe PDF ENABLE PY MODEL NAVIGATE PRINT SENSITIVITIES UTILITIES EconExpert HELP 2i Fs 9 3 e Reply with Changes End Review BI iB G H Guesses Used for XIRR Iteration toed REFRESH PY Inputs Wizard EconEzpert PY Menu Table 1 PV Global Inputs Section 1 a PV Global Inputs Holding Bin 1 is Not Labeled CACERCEI ProformatCE Commercial ProformatP NO Shaded Areas Indicate Inputs EconEzpert PY Proforma 14 9025 4 2010 NO zIs Table 1P Global Inputs PV Global Inputs Holding Bin 2 is Not Labeled Solar PV Example for Training Purposes Only Active Annual Inputs Sheet is lot Labeled XIRR TERM FOR SEHSITMAITY STUDIES a After Tax XIRR After Tax XHPV Red Text Indicates Annual Overrides Mid Year AND TORNADO DIAGRAMS to Mid 2009 000s XIRR Summary Years XHPV Summary Years 10 15 rel 12 93 5 18 84 Leveraged 10 0 104 627 97 51 s 5 1 1 o Unleveraged Unleveraged 8 0 114 621 102 8 Proforma HOTES Inputs SUE and REA by CEI in the Model are or training purposes only CEI makes no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy of such inputs examples or descriptions These inputs should not be
51. 1000 lb hr 1000 Ib 0 0 If desired the user may alternatively provide annual Variable O amp M Expenses in Table 1C 09 29 2010 Page 98 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Fixed Operations and Maintenance costs are not dependent on annual net generation Fixed O amp M Inputs to Table 1 can be entered in either of two User Defined categories The user can name these categories and the names will be carried into the various tables and charts throughout the model The annual Fixed O amp M can be entered in 1000 year for a full calendar year of operations If partial year operations occur in the first or last year of the project the resulting costs will be prorated Costs are also expressed in Base Year and a Real Escalation factor is provided Note that real escalation will be added to the GNP Escalator to arrive at the actual escalation for that component For additional information on escalation see page 86 Figure 47 Table 1 Global Inputs Fixed O amp M Fixed O amp M Costs Plant Labor Expense 2 500 1000 yr 0 0 Fixed O amp M 2 hogy If desired the user may alternatively enter annual Fixed O amp M costs in Table 1C 09 29 2010 Page 99 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 o Major Maintenance Expenses Capitalized and Expensed Major Maintenance Cost Inputs to Table 1 are costs incurred during extended plant outages Depending on the nature of the outage such costs
52. 12 Shaded Cells Indicate Inputs Holding Bin 4 is not labled All Annual Inputs expressed at values are entered in Current Proforma Escalation GNP Escalation Rate for Revs amp Exps 9999999 3 5 3 5 4 0 b Plant Performance Factors Capacity Capacity Factor and Heat Rate Table 1C allows you to input annual values for plant capacity capacity factor fuel use rates and heat rate Note that the hourly and annual fuel use inputs provide alternative ways to enter fuel consumption rates rather than using the plant heat rate This feature can be of particular value for cogeneration applications where the plant heat input varies as a function of factors other than just the electric power output Non zero values entered in Table 1C in a given year will override the life of project inputs specified in Table 1 in the years that they are entered In the example provided the plant capacity and heat rate will be varied from the Global Inputs values of 5 00 MW and 7000 Btu kwh respectively Capacity Factor inputs will be drawn from Table 1 Global Inputs since no entries are input to Table 1C Figure 60 Table 1C Annual Inputs Plant Performance Factors Annual Inputs Red Text Indicates Annual Inputs Used March 22 2003 Yr of Operation ar 1 2 3 4 Description 2006 2007 2008 2009 Months of Operation During Year Holding Bin 3 is not labled 12 12 12 12 Shaded Cells Indicate Inputs Holding Bin 4 is not labled All Annual Inputs expressed at values are ente
53. 2 Fuel Combined MWH from Energy Pricing Periods 2A and 2B o Fuel Transportation 1 o Fuel Transportation 2 User Defined Variable O amp M 1 User Defined Variable O amp M 2 EP Model Only o Sorbent for SO2 Removal o Anhydrous Ammonia for NOx Control o Disposal of Ash Annual Emissions Allowances Purchased Power Purchased Steam User Defined Fixed O amp M 1 User Defined Fixed O amp M 2 Expensed Major Maintenance Property Taxes and Insurance Additions to Major Maintenance Reserves Balance in Major Maintenance Reserve Account 09 29 2010 Page 73 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 12 Table 5 Debt Service Table 5 provides detailed calculations of principal and interest payments on primary and subordinated debt Debt Terms entered in Tables 1 and 1C are reported and resulting annual debt service requirements are calculated and displayed Debt Coverage Ratios are also reported Table 5 is organized as follows o The top section of Table 5 provides the factors used for the Debt Service calculations Custom Debt Treatment Accelerated Principal Payments Interest Only Payments Schedules Breakdown of Interest Rates Interest Payments Principal Repayments Etc o Table 5A located on the bottom section of Table 5 provides Annual Debt Service Expenses in 1000 Annual Debt Service Payments Interest Payments Principal Payments Cash Available to Cover Debt Debt Coverage Ratios Results in
54. 78 904 Total Project There are no inputs in this section The Table is provided as a summary to assist in setting up the Depreciation Schedules that follow and to provide you with insight to the resulting breakdown of equity senior debt and subordinated debt 09 29 2010 Page 106 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 s Depreciation EconExpert uses the Deferral Method of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles GAAP for all Book Analyses including the Income Statement Cash Flow Statement and Balance Sheet in Table 11 Depreciation is calculated using the cost basis of the plant Capital Investment minus working capital debt reserves and land In this section of Table 1 the user specifies the percentage of the original plant Cost Basis that is depreciated for Cash Tax and for Book Tax purposes Depreciation for cash taxes is calculated using IRS Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery MACRS depreciation schedules Book depreciation uses Straight Line Methods Both methods prorate depreciation for partial operations in the first year and accelerate capture of depreciation in the last year of operation if the project is retired before the end of the depreciation life Deferred taxes are calculated by the model based on the difference between book and cash taxes resulting from the differences between these two depreciation calculations The user may also specify the Depreciation Factor applied to Periodic Major Mainten
55. A 92131 Tel 858 566 0221 Fax 858 566 0287 This software is for the use by licensed users only This spreadsheet and its associated visual basic macros are protected by copyright law and international treaties Unauthorized reproduction reverse engineering modification or distribution of this program or any portion of it may result in severe civil and criminal penalties and will be prosecuted to the maximum extent possible under the law EconExpert PV is Enabled M 4 gt I License Title Data Conversion Table 1PV Global Inputs Table 1C Annual Input lt l Ready d e Step 8 The EconExpert Command Menu will appear at the top of the screen You are ready to go To begin using the model select the Click Here button to enter the spreadsheet Remember that after saving the model the Div 0 notation will appear throughout the model To enable EconExpert select ENABLE MODEL Enable EconExpert Congratulations You are now ready to use EconExpert Final note If the Display Setting in Windows is set to other than the recommended setting of 1024 x 768 Pixels a notice will appear during the installation giving you the option to reset the display settings in Windows or to modify the Zoom settings in EconExpert from the default The Zoom setting can also be automatically reset by selecting UTILITIES Table Viewing Format Set Table Zoom Setting on the EconExpert Command Menu 09 29 2010 Page 25 V Eco
56. CEInsight com as an Acrobat PDF file which can be viewed and printed using Adobe Acrobat It is possible that you received a previously installed copy of EconExpert from another user and that you would like to enable that copy of the model using License Codes provided by CEI If this is the case please refer to Section 2 on Page 13 of the User s Manual for instructions on how to enable a previously installed model on a new user s computer Installation files are compressed using WinZip a utility that compresses files for more efficient saving and transport via email To view the User s Manual and to install EconExpert you must first decompress the files If you already own WinZip to unzip EconExpert please following these steps e Step 1 Copy the original Zip or Exe files to the desired location and sub directory on your C drive Installation of the model MUST be initiated from your C drive o If you have received Zip files from CEI and have previously installed WinZip using My Computer or Windows Explorer locate the directory where you copied the files and right click on the Zip files To expand the files select the WinZip option Extract to folder C EconExpert Installation File v Your Name and Company and Extract to folder C EconExpert Users Manual v Where is your directory path and Your Name and Company is the name of the user who is authorized for this installation file o If you hav
57. ENTATIONS EXPRESSLY SET FORTH HEREIN COMPETITIVE ENERGY INSIGHT INC DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES AND REPRESENTATIONS EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WITH RESPECT TO THE MODEL AND ITS CONFORMITY TO ANY SPECIFICATIONS OR DESCRIPTION INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION ANY IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR THAT THE MODEL OR THE RESULTS THEREFROM SHALL BE ERROR FREE Removal of the EconExpert Menu Under rare circumstances the EconExpert Command Menu may not be fully removed when the model is closed If this occurs reopen the model without any other spreadsheets opened Then close EconExpert and any extraneous menus will be deleted 09 29 2010 Page 4 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Table of Contents Important Notices to Users of EcOnEXpetrt oo cee eecceeecesseeeseeeseeeseecseceseceseesseeseneseneseaeeeaeeesaeesaecsaecsaecaecsaeesseeeseeseeeeseeeees D Introduction and Overview of the EconExpert Model esses eene enne enne entere enne 11 ID How to Obtain or Extend a Subscription to EconExpert eseeseeeseeeeeeeerener enne eren nennen nennen 13 II System Requirements iumento cepta ts ibd ORG 16 IV Getting Started Installing EconExpert eese ener enin eterne enne entente nennt 17 V Features of the EconExpert Model ie cite chek eee e Eee etie e et el e eges ees 26 A The BEconExpert On Line Tutorials dreserien ann ettet e t ertt er ee aE S
58. EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Model the Future EconExpert Universal Financial Models Competitive Energy Insight Inc User s Manual for EconExpert EP and EconExpert PV Financial Proformas For the Economic Evaluation of Thermal or Photovoltaic Electric Power Generating Projects and Commodity Project Including Ethanol and Biofuels including Private Ownership Public Ownership and Investor Owned Utility Projects and Technologies Competitive Energy Insight Inc 12025 Blue Diamond Court San Diego CA 92131 Tel 858 566 0221 Fax 858 566 0287 Email Info CEInsight com Website http www CEInsight com 09 29 2010 Page 1 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Page Intentionally Left Blank 09 29 2010 Page 2 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Important Notices to Users of EconExpert Copyright Notice The EconExpert Financial Model and its accompanying documentation are protected by copyright law and international treaties The EconExpert Model documentation and reports generated by the Model include prominently displayed Copyright Notices Unauthorized use modification reverse engineering reproduction or distribution of the EconExpert Model or any portion of it may result in severe civil and criminal penalties and will be prosecuted to the maximum extent possible under the law If you are a licensed user you are free to distr
59. File Figure 29 Comparing Data Files Quantifying the Difference in Inputs and Results in a TARGET File Versus a REFERENCE HLE 5e teet te eet o Pete ty ER heec mete debe sabes oe tee Du E odore Figure 30 Example of EconExpert s On Line Help Comments eese nennen nennen Figure 31 Project Summary Sheet sce e e dede etie iee tete deae greet ed E Gare ede ridere Poeta Figure 32 Screen Shot of Table 1 Global Inputs eee eecsscsseeeseeeeseeeseeeaeecaaecsaecaecaecneeseneeseeeeseeenaeenaees Figure 33 Screen Shot Of Table TC e ect eei teet nee re dea E Cete eee DERE dena Figure 34 Screen Shot of Table 1 Global Inputs eeeesseeseeeseeeeeeeeneen enne nre nennen nennen enne Figure 35 Plant Capacity Heat Rate and Fuel Type EP Example eese Figure 36 Table 1 Global Inputs GNP Escalation Rate and Real Escalation Rates eee Figure 37 Table 1 Global Inputs Owner s Interest in the Project eese nene Fipure 38 Project Schedule du moa eed eodd ui uq Medie ERR Figure 39 Table 1 Global Inputs Plant Capacity Factor rennen nennen nennen Figure 40 Table 1 Global Inputs Switches ener enren nennen eren nesn tenere Figure 41 Table 1 Global Inputs Owner s Stock Performance esee Figure 42 Table 1 Global Inputs Energy Sales and Fuel Use Profiles Figure 43 Table 1 Global In
60. Heat Rate Electricity Onl 7 000 Btukeh H 96 of Annual MAH Produced 11 0 x z Re 3 Fuel Selection Enter 1 for Coal Coke Wood or Oil Enter 2 for Q Period 1AB 2AB Energy Prices ji SAMAH 4 Energy Sales SMH 28 00 a Hose irenenissoniAhesing SMAAP d az Economic Factors Net Energy Price to Customer SMH 4400 00 28 00 4 Base Year Constant Dollar in Mid Year 44 Period 1 2 Fuel Prices 1AB 33 F as GNP Escalation Rate for Revs amp Exps id Gas FOB Supplier 2 65 MMBtu to by EOY 2003 e R 56 I Discount Rate for Unleveraged NPV 10 00 C E 4 Interest Rate Earned on Escrowed Funds EHE e d ull Screen Z x so Equity and Project Ownership Equity Debt Fuel Quality Selected Fuel GAS si During Construction 0 0 sz During Operations 40 0 100 0 Higher Heating Value of Fuel 80 0 E 4 000 Btu sCF s Ash in the Fuel by Weight 0 00 Ib AshiMM sa Owner s 36 Interest in the Project 100 0 Sulfur in the Fuel by Weight 0 0 0 00 lb SO2 MM ss L2 Fnviranmental Controls i ste 1 ew A SH EconEx Eysi Eys Yew Ets Ecom 8528 OQ ism The ORANGE shaded cells indicate where input changes have occurred in the TARGET file relative to the REFERENCE file 09 29 2010 Page 54 EconExpert Users Ma
61. IS LICENSE CAREFULLY as by accepting it you will be legally bound to its conditions PLEASE NOTE THAT THE MODEL WILL NOT FUNCTION PROPERLY UNLESS YOU CHOOSE TO ACCEPT THE AGREEMENT Figure 11 Acknowledging or Declining the EconExpert Software License E3 Microsoft Excel NO EconExpert PV Proforma V14 2010 NO xls Times New Roman m B PRINT SENSITIVITIES UTILITIES EconExpert HELP RC i5 oo IMPORTANT PLEASE READ THE TERMS OF YOUR SOFTWARE LICENSE E 3 By clicking on the button provided on the bottom of the License Sheet in the EconExpert Financial Model User ACCEPTS or DECLINES acceptance of the terms of this Software License Agreement If the License is declined the EconExpert Model will not be fully installed and should not be used ow Is Have Read and ACCEPT the terms of the foregoing EconExpert PV Software License Agreement Click Here to Accept and Enable the Model DECLINE the terms of the foregoing EconExpert PV Software License Agreement Click Here to Decline and Close Model M 4 gt I License Data Conversion Table 1 PV Global Inputs Table 1C Annual Input lt Ready 09 29 2010 Page 23 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 If you ACCEPT the License the following message will appear Figure 12 License Accepted Notification Save to New Filename EconExpert License Terms Accepted Your User Name the EconE pert model will be saved acknowledgin
62. Identify Changes Further Discussion of these Model Comparison Features is provided below i Feature 1 You can compare the INPUT SHEETS of two different cases and identify which inputs have changed This procedure allows you to Track input changes between two different EconExpert Models Input categories that have changed are compared and identified by highlighting on an ORANGE BACKGROUND A new worksheet is created with copies of all of the tables in the model with the changed items highlighted You can also Track input changes between an active input sheet and a holding bin in the same model by saving the current model as two different file names with the desired cases to be compared each respectively activated in one of the files PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS A MEMORY RAM INTENSIVE PROCEDURE IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU CLOSE OTHER APPLICATIONS AND SPREADHSEETS BEFORE EXECUTING THE COMPARISON PROCEDURE The procedure will involve three spreadsheets e The TARGET EconExpert Model is the model that you want to identify the changes in The TARGET model MUST be opened FIRST e The REFERENCE EconExpert Model is the model that you want compare track changes against o The REFERENCE model MUST be opened SECOND o Record the filename of the REFERENCE Model as you will need to enter this information e The COMPARISION file which you will name that highlights the fields that have been changed Also note that the TARGET and REFE
63. NSTALLATION COMPLETE COPYRIGHT 2001 E Initialization Completed The Installed Model will be saved on your C Drive to to C EconExpert Files E conE pert Proforma xls You may save or copy to file to any drive or directory accessible to your computer Select OK to Continue EconExpert will be saved to your C Drive to store the installation settings for your use This saved copy of the model will include all of the installation settings When you reopen it you will not be required to repeat the installation process Select OK and the following screen will appear Figure 8 EconExpert Copyright Notice Screen EconExpert PV V14 9025 4 Copyright 2001 2010 CEI Inc All Rights Reserved Welcome Steve Provol of Competitive Energy Insight Inc This is EconExpert PV Solar Photovoltaics Version 14 9025 4 The current Date is 09 29 2010 Your License is valid until 09 24 2011 When you use this model you are bound by the terms of the Software License Agreement Copyright Notice EconExpert PV is protected by copyright law and international treaties Unauthorized use modification reverse engineering reproduction or distribution of EconExpert PV or any portion of it may result in severe civil and criminal penalties and will be prosecuted to the maximum extent possible under the law Remember to save your work frequently and to ALWAYS CAREFULLY CHECK the results produced by the model Please read this Copyright Notice carefully
64. Note that saved Fully Functional electronic copies of EconExpert that are not converted to Values Only can be shared with others however those Fully Functional Electronic copies will not be enabled on an unlicensed computer unless the user has obtained the appropriate License Codes from CEI See page 127 for additional discussion on saving Fully Functional and Values Only copies of EconExpert and to review the Software License Agreement included in the Appendix 09 29 2010 Page 46 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 i Data Conversion Convert Forward Pricing Data to Annual Input Format Table 1 Global Inputs and Table 1C Annual Inputs provide a flexible input structure for entering Forward Energy Pricing data in up to 4 block periods and Forward Fuel Pricing Data in up to 2 Periods The Data Conversion sheet provides additional flexibility to utilize Forward Energy and Fuel Pricing and Plant Performance data in other formats including up to 24 Periods defined by the user To link the aggregated data in Data Conversion Sheet to the model by formula reference to the Annual Inputs Sheet select UTILITIES Populate Annual Inputs Sheet with Data from the Data Conversion Sheet Automatically Insert Formulas in the Annual Inputs Sheet Referencing the Data Conversion Sheet Capacity capacity factor and heat rate data are mathematically averaged and referenced in Table 1C with formulas linked to the Da
65. Page 92 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 i Fuel Pricing Profile EconExpert allows input to Table 1 of Forward Fuel Prices in one or two periods corresponding to the Energy Pricing Periods 1A 1B and 2A 2B respectively EconExpert will calculate a composite life of project yearly fuel price for use in the proforma and will calculate yearly net expenses for fuel during each of the periods These inputs are specific to fuel pricing only and do not allow you to vary plant performance as a function of pricing period For that type of more detailed analysis use the Data Conversion Feature which is described on Page 63 Figure 41 Table 1 Global Inputs Fuel Pricing Energy and Fuel Pricing Profiles Period 1A Period 1B Period 2A Period 2B Summer On Peak Summer Off Peak Winter On Peak Winter Off Peak of Annual MWH Produced 22 0 11 0 i 44 0 23 00 By Difference Annual Inputs Real Annual Inputs Real Annual Inputs Real Annual Inputs Real Period 1AB 2AB Energy Prices MWH Escalation S MWH Escalation f MWH Escalation IMWH Escalation Energy Payments MWH 44 00 0 0 28 00 0 0 l 39 00 0 0 29 00 0 0 Less Transmission Wheeling MWH 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 3 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 Net Energy Sales MWH 44 00 0 0 28 00 0 0 36 00 0 0 29 00 0 0 Period 1 2 Fuel Prices Gas at Wellhead Annual Inputs Period 1AB 33 2 65 SIMMBtu 2 75
66. RENCE models MUST have different names AND BOTH MUST BE ENABLED A copy of each of the respective input sheets from the TARGET model will be created in the COMPARISON file with a name that you designate The COMPARISON FILE will contain copies of the respective Global Inputs Annual Inputs and Data Conversion Input Sheets with the changed input fields HIGHLIGHTED on a BRIGHT ORANGE Background 09 29 2010 Page 52 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Once initiated you will not be able to terminate this macro until it is completed You will be requested to provide two pieces of information e The Name of the REFERENCE EconExpert Data File The REFERENCE file is the one that you want to compare the TARGET file against e The Name of the new COMPARISON file you want to create that will highlight the changes between the cases This COMPARISON file will be saved in the same directory as the TARGET file that you are identifying changes in Other important requirements for running this macro include e The name you entered for the REFERENCE Data file must be precisely correct e BOTH the TARGET AND REFERENCE models must be ENABLED e There must NOT be a file with the same name as the COMPARISON file that is currently opened e Both the TARGET AND REFERENCE files have at least two available windows If they do not to add a window from the Excel Command Menu select Window New Window from the Excel menu to add a window
67. Sales Sum of 1A 1B 2A and 2B above Capacity Ancillary Services Payments Other Annual Revenue from Table 1C Annual Inputs Steam Sales Other By Product Sales Other Energy Sales Interest Income from Maintenance and Debt Reserves Renewable Energy Credits OO Q Q OO O Other sources of revenue associated with liquidation of reserves and disposition of the land and asset at the end of the debt term or the end of the project life 09 29 2010 Page 75 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 14 Table 7 Cash Flow Leveraged Table 7 provides calculations of the net cash flow before tax income taxes and net cash flow after tax Results provided in this table are calculated on a Leveraged basis i e including construction phase and operating phase debt The resulting Cash Flow is reported during the construction phase and through the operating phase Calculations of revenues minus expenses Depreciation and taxes are provided to be used in the calculations of Net Present Value NPV and Internal Rate of Return IRR provided in Table 8 Results in Table 7 are expressed based on the Owner s percentage interest in the project 15 Table 7A Cash Flow Unleveraged Table 7A provides calculations of the net cash flow before tax income taxes and net cash flow after tax Results provided in this table are calculated on an unleveraged basis i e Assuming the project is executed with 100 equity and with no debt during either the con
68. TILITIES Econtxp ue ENABLE MODEL te Se c 1 fight Ine AllRights Reserved MN a 5 1 EconExpert LP V4 0 341 Copyright 2001 2002 2003 Competitive Energy Ingight Inc All Rights Reserved P TABLE 4 April 23 2003 Example Frame F Combined Cycle Case OPERATING FACTORS AND EXPENSES 5 5 2010 2011 12 12 Owner s Share 100 5 2011 Corresponding Annual Hours of Full Load Operation 0 096 Effective Annual Capacity Factor Months of Operation Owner s Operating Expenses 1000 Current Period 1AB Fuel Period 2AB Fuel i Fuel Transportation 1 Fuel Transportation 2 User Defined Variable O2M1 Non Fuel Variable O amp M a User Defined Variable O amp M2 User Defined Category 2 Sorbent for SO2 Removal Anhydrous Ammonia for NOx Control Disposal of Ash Purchased Power Purchased Steam Annual Emissions Allowances User Defined Fixed O amp M1 Plant Labor User Defined Fixed O amp M2 User Defined Category 2 Additional Expenses 1 1000 yr Additional Expenses 2 1000 yr Additional Expenses 3 1000 yr Additional Expenses 4 1000 yr Additional Expenses 5 1000 yr Expensed Major Maintenance Property Taxes Insurance i Sub total Annual Deductible Operating Costs 276 J 8 y 75 9 313 X 3 306 4 12 Major Maintenance amp Additions to Major Maint Reserves See Major Maint Sheet 10 000 Total Snnual Operating Expe
69. TORNADO DIAGRAMS IRR TERM FOR SENSITIVITY STUDIE NPV to Financial Closing Da Years NN n 5 1200 48 329 22 625 10 00 169 118 No Annual Inputs Used NPV and IRR Summary Years 10 Leveraged 3 09 Unleveraged 0 70 3 274 54 097 11 68 8 32 9 12 6 03 These Tornado Diagrams show respectively how the leveraged and unleveraged IRR will be impacted by changes in inputs to the program that fall into the following classes e Equity and Debt Related Inputs o Owner s Equity o Financing Owner s Equity During Operations Phase Interest Rate on Construction Debt Interest Rate on Senior Debt Interest Rate on Subordinated Debt Term of Senior Debt Term of Subordinated Debt e Fuel and Variable O amp M Related Inputs o Net Plant Heat Rate o Fuel Price Annual Delivered Period 1 and Period 2 with Transportation 09 29 2010 Page 35 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 o Variable O amp M Expenses e All Variable O amp M Including those listed below and Purchased Power Purchased Steam Annual Emissions Allowances User Defined Category 1 User Defined Category 2 Ammonia Use of NOx Removal Solid Waste Disposal For solid fuel fired projects Sorbent Use for SO2 Removal All 5 Additional User Defined Expenses Fields in Table 1C See Page 118 e Capital Fixed O amp M and Major Maintenance Related Inputs o Capital Cost
70. Table 5A are expressed based on the Owner s percentage interest in the project 09 29 2010 Page 74 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 13 Table 6 Revenues Table 6 provides calculation of gross revenues associated with energy capacity and by product sales Annual energy sales are reported for each of the four specified periods Associated escalation factors are also displayed and the resulting escalated annual revenues are reported in 1000 based on the Owner s percentage interest in the project Table 6 is organized as follows The Top Section of Table 6 provides Revenue Factors and Escalation Rates including o The Energy Sales Profile by Energy Pricing Period o Sales of Other Commodities including steam and other byproducts o Escalation Rates used for Revenues o Escalated Prices for Energy and Commodities Table 6A located in the bottom section of Table 6 provides Escalated Annual Revenues in 1000 based on the Owner s Percentage Interest in the project Revenue streams are itemized in detail If less than 100 Ownership has been specified as an input the revenues shown here will be prorated based on the Owner s Share of the total project Itemized revenue categories provided in Table 6A include A breakdown of revenues from energy sales into the available four Energy Pricing Periods o Period 1A o Period 1B o Period 2A o Period 2B A breakdown of all taxable revenue sources including o Total Energy
71. VITIES Menu An example of the Data Input Sheet that will be opened is provided below This example is for the Capital Fixed O amp M and Major Maintenance Related Inputs Tornado Diagram Figure 75 Tornado Diagrams Data Input Sheet Consolidated Tornado Diagram Copyright 2004 2010 CEI Inc All Rights Reserved Revenues Operating Costs Equity and Financing f hange in Owner s Equity zs Power Sold during Weighted Annual Ave 5 DM Variable O amp M Category 1 MWH I5 95 96 of Total Investment 1000 Interest Rate on EN Power Sold during Period 2 MWH 5 MEM Variable O amp M Category 2 MWH 5 onstruction Financing 96 Interest Rate on l Power Sold during Period 3 MWH 5 Senior Primary Debt o Eee E Materials 000s yr 5 5 E HERD n Mo gyrum expe ROTER DOES T7308 Re erm of Senior Primary Debt Years E yrs Power Sold during Period 4 MWH Ba l Laber 000 Interest Rate on s H i inis re ER Ea All In Delivered Energy Prices MWH 5 Fixed O amp M Category 3 000s i erm of Subordinated Debt Years EN yrs mani Ancillary Services Sales 96 of 5 Fixed O amp M Category 4 000s Capital Investment and 5 Fixed O amp M Category 5 000s Capacity Factor Eo bei NEM Bde 06 of Initial Investment m Ed bebe ESI 96 of Annual MWH 06 of Costs 1000 Annual Custom Revenues 4 5 Insurance 0o of Costs 1000 Annual Custom Revenues 5 5 apitalized Major Maint
72. al inputs to the model The corresponding Sensitivity Cases must be executed from the EconExpert Command Menu in order to reflect results consistent with the current case The Sensitivity Increment for each case is entered in the respective tables that appear for each variable in the Sensitivity Sheet The term used for all of the Sensitivity Analyses is entered at the top of Table 1 The Sensitivity Graphs provide plots of Leveraged and unleveraged IRR versus the variations in the selected parameter It is important to note that the Sensitivity Graphs are not updated automatically Prior to printing the Sensitivity Graphs they must be updated by running the corresponding Sensitivity Analysis for the current case This can be accomplished by selecting the SENSITIVITIES Option on the EconExpert Command Menu All of the Sensitivities can be run as a batch from the EconExpert SENSITIVITIES Menu In the EconExpert EP and EconExpert PV models these sensitivity charts are included in a separate Sensitivity Charts file This file if save in your c EconExpert Files folder will be automatically accessed by the model when needed 24 Tornado and Parametric Sensitivities One worksheet in EconExpert provides plots showing all of the respective Tornado Diagrams used to study how the IRR of a project will be impacted by incrementing multiple project inputs The corresponding Tornado Diagrams must be executed from the EconExpert Command Menu in order to reflect
73. all inputs If you select this option you can elect to clear all of the Annual Inputs Sheet except the forward projections of the Owner s Earnings and Stock Price that have been entered into the Annual Inputs Sheet For the Data Conversion Sheet e SAVE acopy of the Active Data Conversion Sheet to a Holding Bin This option allows you to save a copy all of the inputs in this sheet and then to make modifications to the respective inputs without losing the saved sets of inputs When you SAVE the contents to the Holding Bin the current contents of the Holding Bin are overwritten e RESTORE the saved copy of the Data Conversion Sheet that has been previously saved This option allows you to recover the copy of the Data Conversion Table that has been previously saved When you RESTORE the contents from the Holding Bin the current contents of the Active Data Conversion Sheet are overwritten e EXCHANGE a copy of the Active Data Conversion Sheet with the copy that has been previously saved in the Data Conversion Holding Bin This option allows you to flip the copies of input tables that have been previously saved with the active Data Conversion Sheet When you EXCHANGE the contents with a Holding Bin the current contents of the Active Data Conversion Sheet are saved in the Holding Bin and the current contents of the Holding Bin are written to the Active Data Conversion Sheet Neither is lost In addition to processing the Global Annual and Data Conv
74. ance Expenses Figure 54 Table 1 Global Inputs Depreciation for Book and Cash Depreciation of Basis For Taxes For Book Use Economic Basis excludes Debt Res Wrk Cap Land MACRS SL Stimulus Depreciation in Basis 396 786 396 786 Year 5 Years eg Special Solar 0 096 Federal State 10 Years 15 Years eg Simple Cycle GT i E Federal YES State NO 20 Years eg Power Block 31 5 Yrs MACRS 30 Yrs Book eg Buildings 0 0 50 0 100 0 50 0 0 0 7 Years 200 Declining Bal eg Waste Fuels User Defined in Table 13 N A N A No Data User Defined in Table 13 Total Depreciated N A No Data 100 0 100 0 Tax Loss Carry Forward Applies State Tax Depreciation Adjusted to 100 MACRS Basis SEE COMMENT In the shaded cells specify the amount in decimal fraction 0 100 10 0 to be depreciated in each year such that the total sums to 1 000 100 0 User Defined Depreciation Schedules in Table 13 Depreciation 10 Year 15 Year 20 Year 30 Year SL User Defined in Table 13 User Defined in Table 13 09 29 2010 04445 0 1481 0 0741 0 3200 0 1920 0 1152 0 1152 0 0576 0 2449 0 1749 0 1249 0 0893 0 0892 0 1800 0 1440 0 1152 0 0922 0 0737 Page 107 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 t Income Taxes and Investment Tax Credits This is the area in Table 1 where the user speci
75. and Interest During Construction which are concentrated at the start or end of the construction phase are also entered here You can specify up to 10 categories of Phase 2 Costs The user may also add contingency as a percentage of the other Phase 2 Costs and as a fixed amount in 1000 the two entries will be summed if both are entered Soft costs can be estimated using a Factored amount and a 1000 amount If both are entered they will be summed Factored amounts are calculated as follows Start up Mobilization and Spares Costs As a percentage of the total Fixed O amp M Costs excluding Expensed Major Maintenance in Base Year Working Capital Based on a number of months of fuel costs in Base Year Debt Reserves Based on the equivalent prorated number of months of debt payments using a mortgage type payment schedule Figure 50 Table 1 Global Inputs Engineering and Construction Phase Costs Phase 2 Engineering Construction Start up Not Escalated Land Not Depreciated 2 000 Engineering Procurement and Construction EPC 300 000 Interconnection Costs 20 000 0 00 Sub Total Capital Costs without Contingency 322 000 Amount_1000 Factor Contingency Amount of above 0 0 Sub Total Capital Costs 322 000 kw 644 Sub total Development and Capital Costs 1000 332 000 Soft Costs Amount 1000
76. anges End Review PEA G H Guesses Used for XIRR Iteration c3 Load REFRESH PY Inputs Wizard EconEzpert PY Menu Table 1 PV Global Inputs Section 1 PV Global Inputs Holding Bin 1 is Hot Labeled CACERCEI ProformaXCEI Commercial ProformatP 4 NO Shaded Areas Indicate Inputs Hame of File EconEzpert PY Proforma 14 9025 4 2010 NO zls Table 1P Global Inputs PV Global Inputs Holding Bin 2 is Not Labeled Solar PV Example for Training Purposes Only Active Annual Inputs Sheet is Not Labeled XIRR TERM FOR SENSITIVITY STUDIES H After Tax XIRR After Tax XNPV Red Tezt Indicates Annual Overrides Mid Year AND TORNADO DIAGRAMS to Mid 2009 000s 32 E n amc was 93 Leveraged 10 0 104 627 97 51 Unleveraged 8 88 Unleveraged 8 0 i 114 621 102 82 Proforma NOTES Inputs examples and NE provided by CEI in the Model are or training purposes only CEI makes no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy of such inputs examples or descriptions These inputs should not be used for analysis of a real project PV Facility Capacity Section 2 Annual Capacity Inputs PV Energy Sales Profile Section 4 Period 1 Period 2 Specify Base Units MW MW 000s or kw kw43 MW a eighted Annual Average Rated Het PV Facility Capacity MW of Annual MWH Produced 60 0 Annual Inputs 10 0 Degradation after 1 Year y 109 X Annual Inputs Real 39 Annual Degradation after 2 Years
77. ar Note the specification of on peak and off peak energy pricing in Current In the top section of the figure period heat rate values are entered Note how the example illustrates degradation in the net plant heat rate over the subject periods In the lower section of this figure period fuel prices are entered in MMBtu Heat rate entries are followed by computation of the fuel use in 1000 MMBtu per period Next the period fuel prices are entered in Current Finally the lower section of the 24 Period conversion table is shown below 09 29 2010 Page 48 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Note that period fuel prices energy prices and spark spreads are also reported Figure 24 Spark Spread Calculations EP Model Onl E3 Microsoft Excel EconExpert LP Proforma V4 0 389 xls 1 181 xl Ele Edit View Insert Format Tools Data Window Help Acrobat NAVIGATE PRINT SENSITIVITIES UTILITIES EconExpert HELP ENABLE MODEL 8x Dee OSAv aB yo aA 41 2 a A MEA A Condtional Formatting SWISS 12 A a Bsu z 2 32 M i B f Ed Hd EH OE mmms A C381 m f onversion of Year Number Year Spark Spread Spring ON Peak Duct Firing 5 x 16 17 50 17 50 17 48 17 46 17 44 17 40 18 17 18 13 18 Spring Mid Peak 2 x 18 6 67 651 634 616 597 5 77 635 615 5 Spring OFF Peak 7 x 8 1 00 0 76 0 50 0 24 0 04 0 34 0 15 0 14 0 Summ
78. arying the increment for 3 to 3 times the value you select Plots of the respective Valuation Sensitivities show the variation in Project Valuation as a function of the incremented value Note that for the Valuation Sensitivity Tables and Graphs to be current the respective sensitivity analysis must be executed prior to viewing or printing the table A warning will be issued advising you to be sure the sensitivity is executed before the table is viewed or printed For additional discussion of Sensitivities see the next section and page 127 e Sensitivity Tables and Graphs Print the selected tables that are included on the Sensitivities Sheet These Tables show how the NPV and IRR Term Specified in Table 1 of the project will vary as a function changes in a specific input variable When you select to run a specific Sensitivity from the Command Menu you will be asked to provide the increment to be applied in the analysis Using this increment the model will be executed seven times for the selected analysis varying the increment for 3 to 3 times the value you select If you direct the program to run all of the Sensitivities at once the increment values can be entered in the green shaded cells found in the Sensitivities Sheet Plots of the respective Sensitivity Analysis show the variation in leveraged and unleveraged IRR as a function of the incremented value Note that for the Sensitivity Tables and Graphs to be current the resp
79. as been entered and that the corresponding Global Input will be overridden The Status Sheet will also provide a notice that this has occurred A feature is provided on the EconExpert UTILITIES Menu that allows you to clear and reset the Annual Input Table to all Os meaning that none of the inputs to Table 1 will be overridden To RESET the Annual Inputs Table from the UTILITIES menu select Save or Reset Inputs CLEAR Annual Inputs Note that if you do this the current Annual Inputs will be lost You will be provided with a warning If desired you can save the Annual Inputs before Resetting them This can be initiated from this same menu option The individual Annual Inputs are discussed in more detail starting on page 111 Examples provided in the Appendix also give examples on how to use the various Global Inputs A variety of Cell Help Comments also appear with each input in Table 1 PLEASE NOTE Cost entries are input to Table 1C in CURRENT and represent the actual amount spent in a given year This means that the cost and revenue entries to Table 1C will not be impacted by escalation rates entered elsewhere in the model and fixed values will not be impacted by partial year operation The values will be used by the model as entered 09 29 2010 Page 70 9 Table 2 Summary EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Table 2 provides consolidated summaries of the results generated in Tables 3 11 Table 2 is organized a
80. ated each time you create a Tornado Diagram from the SENSITIVITIES menu These graphs show results for the respective Tornado Analyses for Equity and Debt Related Inputs Fuel and Variable O amp M Related Inputs Capital Fixed O amp M and Major Maintenance Related Inputs and Revenue Related Inputs OoOo00 The graphs illustrate how the leveraged and unleveraged NPV and IRR of the project will vary as a function of the incrementing multiple input variables associated with each of the classes of Tornado Diagrams The increment values are entered in the Data Form which can be opened by selecting the Tornado Diagrams options from the EconExpert Sensitivities Menu Note that for the Tornado Tables to be current the respective Tornado Diagrams must be updated prior to viewing or printing the table For additional discussion of Tornado Diagrams page 127 09 29 2010 Page 29 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 e Project Valuation Tables and Graphs Print the selected tables that are included on the Sensitivities Sheet These Tables show how the Project Valuation Term Specified in Table 1 will vary as a function changes in specific input variables including forward fuel and energy prices When you select to run a specific Valuation Sensitivity from the Command Menu you will be asked to provide the increment to be applied in the analysis Using this increment the model will be executed seven times for the selected analysis v
81. bal Inputs Depreciation for Book and Cash eese 107 Figure 57 Table 1 Global Inputs Income Taxes and Investment Tax Credit eeee 108 Figure 58 Table 1 Global Inputs Property Taxes and Insurance eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeneren rennen ener 109 Figure 59 Table 1 Global Inputs The IRR Guess eeeeeeeseeeeeneeeennen ener nre 110 Fipur 60 Screen Shot of Table 1C seh a En see Di E dte A abi Ue ie Pu ee o 111 Figure 61 Table 1C Annual Inputs GNP Escalation Rate sessssesesseseeeeeeeee entere 114 Figure 62 Table 1C Annual Inputs Plant Performance Factors seeseeeseeeeeeeeeeeereneren eene 114 Figure 63 Table 1C Annual Inputs Energy Sales Profile and Prices esseeeeeeeneee 115 Figure 64 Table 1C Annual Inputs Other Revenue Sources eeseessesseseeeeeeeee nennen nennen 116 Figure 65 Table 1C Annual Inputs Annual Changes in Fuel Quality eee 117 Figure 66 Table 1C Annual Inputs Fuel Costs eese en eren rese ne entrent nnne 117 Figure 67 Table 1C Annual Inputs Fixed and Variable O amp M Inputs sees 118 Figure 68 Table 1C Annual Inputs Major Maintenance seeesseeseeseeeeeee eene rennen eren nretne nnne 119 Figure 69 Table 1C Annual Inputs Debt Service enne ennt rennen ense tere nns 121 Figure 70 Table 1C Annual Input
82. basis declines the annual Property Taxes and Insurance will correspondingly decline Jfa 1000 amount is entered for Property Taxes or Insurance the amount is used in each year of the project life and is escalated using the GNP deflator The user may also enter annual property taxes and annual insurance costs in the Annual Inputs Table where specific amounts can be entered in each year Figure 56 Table 1 Global Inputs Property Taxes and Insurance Property Tax amp Insurance Amount 1000 Factor 96 Base Year Owner s 1000 yr Total 100 Share Property Tax yr of Book 1 0 3 357 3 357 Insurance yr of Book 1 0 3 357 3 357 NOTE The calculated unleveraged IRR may change slightly usually by less than 0 1 as a function of changes in Project Equity This can occur when you select the Factor option for calculating property taxes or insurance costs which when carried through to the unleveraged analysis are tied to the cost basis which includes interest during construction and so has a dependency on the amount of debt assumed This effect is very minor and will not be observed if either annual inputs or only a fixed 1000 yr amount is entered for Property Taxes and Insurance costs 09 29 2010 Page 109 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 v Calculation of IRR and the IRR Guess Calculation of the project s Internal Rate of Return IRR is an important analysis f
83. ble 1C Annual Inputs Annual Inputs apply only to a given year in the life of the project You can use Annual Inputs any time that you would like to more precisely model a variable than can be accomplished using Table 1 Global Inputs Any non zero entry is read as an Annual Input and included in the calculations in the model If the cell is blank or a value of zero 0 appears in the cell the corresponding Global Input will be used If it is desired to enter a 0 for Annual Input use a very small non zero entry such 0 0000001 and the value 0 will be used in the model Where appropriate this means that Global Inputs from Table 1 will be overridden in the years that Annual Inputs are entered The Figure below provides a Screen Shot of Table 1C Figure 31 Screen Shot of Table 1C El Microsoft Excel NO EconExpert PV Proforma V14 9025 4 2010 NO xls 216 z A A B zu E PRINT SENSITIVITIES UTILITIES EconExpert HELP ith Changes End Review F EconExpert PV V11 9025 3 Copyriabr 2001 2010 CELInc All Rights Reserved Click Here to TABLE 1C REFRESH Warning Partial Year Operation in Year 1 and Year 26 Mens Today is 09 29 2010 Yr of Operation Months of Operation During Year Holding Bin 3 is no Shaded Cells Indicate Inputs Holding Bin 4 is no Inputs expressed at values are entered in Current 000s Proforma Hotes Empty Cells or entries of 0 will result in Global Inputs being used in the A value of assoc
84. ble 1C Annual Inputs Annual Changes in Fuel Annual Inputs ualit Red Text dc RN Yr of Operation kar 1 2 March 22 2003 3 Description 2006 2007 2008 Months of Operation During Year Holding Bin 3 is not labled 12 12 12 Shaded Cells Indicate Inputs Holding Bin 4 is not labled All Annual Inputs expressed at values are entered in Current Proforma Fuel Quality Solid Fuel or Oil Higher Heating Value of Fuel Btu Ib 9999999 12 500 11 000 11 000 96 Ash in the Fuel by Weight 9999999 8 0 7 0 7 0 Sulfur in the Fuel by Weight 9999999 3 5 3 0 3 0 f Fuel Costs EP Only Annual forward fuel prices are input in Current MMBtu in 1 or 2 block periods corresponding to the Energy Pricing Periods 1A 1B and 2A 2B discussed previously EconExpert will calculate a composite annual fuel price for use in the proforma and will calculate annual net expenses for fuel during both of the Fuel Pricing Periods These Table 1C inputs will override Table 1 Inputs In the example shown the respective gas price parameters will be set as indicated in years 1 5 of the project life Other years will default to the escalated value calculated from Table 1 Global Inputs unless annual input entries are entered for those years Note that the values entered in Table 1C are in Current i e Include Escalation Figure 64 Table 1C Annual Inputs Fuel Costs Annual Inputs Red Text Indicate March 22 2003 Yr o
85. calculations are performed based on an assumed baseline stock price without the project the baseline projected corporate earnings profile and the baseline number of shares outstanding The resulting current price earnings ratio is applied to estimate future stock performance by calculating the resulting accretion dilution of shares and the impacts of net income from the project Using Table 1C the user may specify the annual effective Price Earnings Ratio of the stock reflective of changing anticipated market conditions forecasted annual Earnings Share expressed in Current and the annual number of Corporate Shares Outstanding Amounts entered here will override inputs to Table 1 If an annual profile for Corporate Shares Outstanding is entered it should be input for all succeeding years during the project life as the model will revert to Table 1 entries if a zero valued input is read in a year succeeding a change in the number of shares issued Figure 69 Table 1C Annual Inputs Owner s Stock Performance March 28 2002 Yr of Operation 0 Year 1 2 3 4 Description Example Natural Gas Fired Combined Cycle 2005 2006 2007 2008 Months of Operation During Year Holding Bin 3 is not labled 12 12 12 12 Corporate Earnings without Project 2009 12 Market Price Earnings PE Ratio 0 Forecasted Earnings Share w o Project 0 Shares of Company Stock Outstanding if used Share Amounts must be entered in ALL years Pre
86. ce 09 29 2010 Page 66 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 The individual Global Inputs are discussed in more detail starting on page 82 The Appendix also provides examples on how to use the various Global Inputs A variety of Cell Help Comments also appear with each input in Table 1 To view the comments first enable them from the EconExpert Help Menu and then place the cursor over the red triangle on the corner of the respective cell PLEASE NOTE Cost premises are input to Table 1A in BASE YEAR This means that the cost and revenue entries to Table 1 will be escalated by the respective compounding of the GNP Deflator and the Real Escalation applied to each item All results calculated using the Global Inputs Sheet will be prorated based on partial years of operation in the first and last years of the project life as appropriate Locations where a red asterisk appears identify cells where a potential warning message is located but not needed Also note that when inputs are entered in Table 1C Annual Inputs that result in over riding of a particular entry to Table 1 Global Inputs the format of the value of the input in Table 1 will change to Bold Red and an Annual Input indicator will appear next to the respective input This feature is provided just to advise you that a particular input to Table 1 is being overridden somewhere in the proforma 09 29 2010 Page 67 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 8 Ta
87. ce Often times costs under a Long Term Service Agreement or predictions of Major Maintenance Expenses can be calculated based on the actual hours and severity of service experienced by the equipment For example a unit that undergoes multiple start ups during the year is typically subjected to more severe service than a unit that is base loaded Major Maintenance costs in such a situation can be estimated based on the sum of the actual operating hours and a computed Operating Hour Factor that is related to the severity of service The resulting sum is the Equivalent Operating Hours EOH of service on the unit The resulting Major Maintenance Expense can then be estimated using a cost factor expressed EOH Other Capitalized Major Maintenance Expenses Deposits to Major Maintenance Reserves based 1000 yr input Additional life of project yearly contributions to Major Maintenance Reserves can be entered in 1000 year 09 29 2010 Page 100 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 For both of the Major Maintenance cost categories listed above costs are expressed in Base Year Note that real escalation will be added to the GNP Escalator to arrive at the actual escalation for that component For additional information on escalation see page 86 The user may also enter Major Maintenance Expenses in Table 1C Annual Inputs where options are provided to either override the costs described above with annual inputs or to provide
88. ctly 4 Sensitivities The Sensitivities Sheet is where Sensitivity Analyses and Tornado Diagrams are generated to study the impacts of variations of key project parameters on the calculated IRR and NPV The Sensitivities Sheet contains a series of tables each of which are used for a respective Sensitivity Analysis or Tornado Diagram The user may specify individual increment amounts to be applied to each of the respective sensitivities The IRR Term used for the Sensitivity Studies is entered in the IRR Summary Section at the top of Table 1 Additional discussion of how to use EconExpert s automated Sensitivity Features is provided on page 127 5 Data Conversion The Data Conversion Sheet allows the user automatically to convert forward energy and fuel pricing data provided in a format that is different from EconExpert to the format of four Energy and two Fuel Pricing periods used in the EconExpert model The current version of the model is equipped with the capability to automatically reference aggregated forward data entered into 1 24 block periods year to the Annual Inputs sheet 09 29 2010 Page 63 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 6 Project Summary This sheet provides a 1 page summary of key project parameters The figure below provides a screen shot of the Project Summary Sheet Figure 29 Project Summary Sheet Ed Microsoft Excel EconExpert LP Proforma V4 0 323BETAzds A 0 e OSHS a SRY sm 4 o o amp
89. culations In these areas you can set up your own tables which can be linked to other tables and calculations in the model Example of Areas as the Bottom of Each Sheet Where You Can Perform Custom Calculations You May Use the Outlined Section Below for Calculations and Customization You can select the format of cells in these tables using the UTILITIES Reformat Cells option on the EconExpert Command Menu which allows you to select various number or percentage formats e You can also insert a new sheet into the model To do this right click on any of the Sheet Tabs and select Insert Worksheet from the Excel right click menu To take best advantage of customization link your custom formulas to Annual Inputs in Table 1C Utilize the User Defined Input Options for Revenues and Expenses In this way all of the functionality of the model will reflect your customization Note Be careful not to create Circular Calculations using these approaches CEI also provides financial modeling and model customization services For information please contact us at the address shown on the cover page of this manual 09 29 2010 Page 136 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 I EconExpert Software License Agreement Today is 9 29 2010 icense Perio nti The EconExpert PV Financial Model by Competitive Energy Insight Inc SOFTWARE LICENSE AGREEMENT Read Carefully Before Using This Software Before the installation
90. current values and asked if you want to use them or change them manually in the Sensitivity Sheet So for example when performing a Sensitivity Analysis on the Capital Investment Cost of the project the user might specify a Sensitivity Increment of 5 Econ Expert will then iterate the model using values of 85 90 9596 100 105 110 and 115 of the Capital Cost used for the current case and will then report in tabular and graphic format how the project s IRR will vary as a function of the resulting changes in the Total Investment Cost Incl Development Costs Capital Costs Soft Costs and Interest During Construction The Sensitivity Increment can also be specified in a cell in the Capital Cost Sensitivity Table as shown for in the figure below 09 29 2010 Page 129 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Figure 72 Sensitivity Tables Input of Sensitivity Increments Capital Cost Sensitivity 19 000 00 200 16 467 Cap Cost Variation Example Case Natural Gas Fired Combined Cycle 6 7 20 0 13 3 Capital Cost kw 38 30 33 Capital Cost Sensitivity Increment 6 7 Percent change from base cas of Base Case Investment 80 0 86 7 Total Investment incl Soft Costs and IDC 000s 22 854 18 2 19 807 Total As Spent Investment MM 23 20 Total Investment kw 46 37 40 Delta Capital as a of the Capital Cost 1000 800 2 533 000s Base Case IRR 20 Years Levera
91. d Liabilities in each year and over the project life e Table 11C Owner s Stock Performance Predictions of the impacts of the project on the Owner s stock price are provided based on the project s Net Income the dilution effects of the equity additions attributed to the project and the predicted performance of the Owner s stock without the project Results in Table 11 11A 11B and 11C are all expressed based on the Owner s percentage interest in the project EconExpert uses the Deferral Method of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles GAAP for all Book Analyses including the Income Statement Cash Flow Statement and Balance Sheet in Table 11 09 29 2010 Page 78 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 21 Table 12 Dollars per MWH Table 12 provides costs and revenues calculated in MWH during the operations phase These calculations are performed by dividing the annual revenues and expenses by the net annual power generation Table 12 includes the following expressed in Escalated Current MWH e Revenues by category including energy sales capacity sales and other revenues sources e Operating Costs by category including individual contributions to fixed and variable operating costs e Debt Service Expenses including a breakdown of Primary and Subordinated Debt payments e Sources of Funds including revenues from energy sales capacity sales and other income sources e Uses of Funds including identification o
92. d O amp M 5 yr avg 0 000 1000 in 2002 25 0 Additional Annual Fixed Costs 5 yr avg 0 000 1000 in 2002 25 0 Expensed Major Maint 5 yr avg 0 000 1000 in 2002 25 0 09 29 2010 Page 38 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 5 UTILITIES The UTILITIES Menu provides useful tools to manage the model Features on the UTILITIES Menu include a Show Pop Up NPV IRR and Payback Summaries These summaries are convenient pop up reports that show Before Tax Returns After Tax Returns Development Costs Installation Costs Revenues Operating Expenses Debt Service Project Cash Flow To close the summary simply click on the X box on the top right of the form Pop up Summary of Project Metrics BEFORE TAX Returns AFTER TAX Returns Investment Costs Revenues Operating Expenses Debt Service Cash Flow Print Form After TaxIRR EndofYea temys 1 f fo Leveraged 1s anon 22175 After Tax HPV to EOY 2006 000s remm e p Unleveraged 6 0 12 014 5529 1 065 795 Caawright 2004 CEI Inc All Rights Reseved 09 29 2010 Page 39 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 6 Load Global Inputs Wizard The Global Inputs Wizard will walk you through each section of Table 1 Global Inputs and allow you to directly jump to any section Each section has its own print area which is also accessible fr
93. d authorized installations If you forward copies of the model to others who do not have an active license or you try to use the model on another computer that copy of the model can be enabled by obtaining the appropriate License Authorization Codes from CEI Once entered the codes will fully enable the use of EconExpert on that computer for the subject license period You will now be transferred to the EconExpert Title Screen 09 29 2010 Page 24 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Figure 14 The EconExpert Title Screen Ej Microsoft Excel NO EconExpert PV Proforma V14 9025 4 2010 NO xls i SWISS Eo EIE plz u amp i iU MBEE ind 53 13 1 57 1 6 53 08 FD 0 19 x 21 ALIM 4D 99 719 Help Adobe PDF ENABLE PY MODEL NAVIGATE PRINT SENSITIVITIES UTILITIES EconExpert HELP f x HEY File Edit View Insert Format Tools Data Window i 3 83 2a 34 433 Reply with Changes End Review B TT pert PV V14 9025 4 Copyright 2001 2010 CEI Click Hereto Loundi Your Browser ond to View die CEI Web re Model the Future E con E X p ert ann Click Here to Start Click Here 1 Where you left off or to REFRESH 2 At Table 1 Global Inputs EconExpert PV Menu Universal Financial Models Website _http www CElnsight com You may download the EconExpert User s Manual from the Website or contact us at Competitive Energy Insight Inc 12025 Blue Diamond Court San Diego C
94. distribution of MWH generation in the first year of operation will be allocated in the percentages shown Other years will default to the basis specified in the Global Inputs Sheet Forward energy prices will be based on the values shown for each of the four respective periods Figure 61 Table 1C Annual Inputs Energy Sales Profile and Prices March 22 2003 Yr of Operation kar 1 2 3 4 Description 2006 2007 2008 2009 Months of Operation During Year Holding Bin 3 is not labled 12 12 12 12 Shaded Cells Indicate Inputs Holding Bin 4 is not labled All Annual Inputs expressed at values are entered in Current Proforma Energy Sales Profile of Annual MWH Period 1A Period 1A Period 1B Period 1B Period 2A Period 2A Period 2B Period 2B 0 0 0 0 Energy Sales Price to Customer MWH Period 1A Period 1A Period 1B Period 1B Period 2A Period 2A Period 2B Period 2B IMPORTANT NOTE If you enter Energy Sales Profile Inputs in any year you must provide all of the desired Periods for that year Period 2B will be calculated by difference 09 29 2010 Page 115 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 d Other Revenues In addition to revenues realized from sales of Energy the user may specify other annual income sources in Table 1C which can include Capacity Ancillary Services Payments Inputs include the annual kw month expressed in Curr
95. during the period of this Agreement with a new authorized period of installation 8 Inputs Examples and Derivative Works The Model includes sections that have been designated as Unprotected where Authorized Users may input data or may perform custom analyses using the results generated within the Model both of which analyses and generated results are defined as and described in this Agreement as Derivative Works Users may only make changes to the Model in such designated Unprotected areas or by inserting worksheets in the model and such changes are only for the use of Licensees and Authorized Users of the Model CEI provides no warranties relative to such Derivative Works of the Model or relative to Licensee s or Authorized Users application of such Derivative Works Inputs examples and descriptions provided by CEI in the Model are provided for example purposes only and CEI makes no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy of such inputs examples or descriptions 9 Sharing of Electronic Copies of the Model and Printed Materials Generated by the Model Electronic copies of the Model and printed materials generated by the Model may be generated and shared with third parties ONLY as specified below All Electronic Copies of the Model and Printed Materials must include the original Copyright notices provided by CEI 9 1 Saving of Electronic Copies of the Model Users may make save and reuse electronic copies of th
96. e 100 i Capitalized Major Maintenance Expenses Capital Improvements sese 100 11 Expensed Major Maintenance ie eet Po eno coepi test eoe ledere s Eb Le ap eb bota 101 p Capital Investment COStS 5 Het eter ee eee esten IG EO RE dicetur eeu er c dee WH eene iNe 102 1 Phas 1 Development COoSsts ener ee eee tete eame ce ni dee erede e eere e cox ER ET eee euet 102 ii Phase 2 Engineering Construction and Start up Costs eesessseseeeeeeeeeen eene enne 103 lii Plant Salvage Value at the End of the Project Life esee nennen 104 q Financing Terms Construction Financing and Permanent Financing eee 105 F Sources Of Capitale e cete ed e tab e wt ade desto hele ett ous 106 s Depreciation oet eere re een eere tiic ee it eere eit ea e NER eR E EE e T de 107 t Income Taxes and Investment Tax Credits esses AEE AA AKE enne entrer entere enn 108 i Property Taxes and Insurance nene te de ee eet eerte qtue si Qe eee ee eet Et 109 v Calculation of IRR and the IRR Guess cesaron eerie erbe Rete td ia Pe fe eot e erbe dee Tbe Tera Pede addo 110 2 Table TC Annual Inputs Ree t dete ts eer E e EGRE HER tonne oa ae 111 ay Bsealatiomnzic iam tiet eme iter eit tete ee i et eee tus 114 b Plant Performance Factors Capacity Capacity Factor and Heat Rate esses 114 09 29 2010 Page 6 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010
97. e Model as required for use on the Authorized Computers or as otherwise designated in writing by CEI 9 2 Sharing of fully functional Electronic Copies of the Model Users may share electronic copies of the Model with others including third parities who have a current and valid License with CEI for the Model but such Electronic Copies will not work properly on computers that are not Licensed and Authorized by CEI The shared copies can be made to be Fully Functional on a new user s computer by obtaining the proper License Extension Codes from CEI which can be provided to new Authorized Licensees as described when the Model is opened on an unauthorized computer in the EconExpert HELP Menu and in the User s Manual 9 3 Sharing of Electronic Values Only Copies of the Model The Model includes preprogrammed algorithms accessible through the Model s Command Menu that will generate electronic copies of the Model which contain only the values generated by a specific case and contain no formulas capable of analyzing other cases with the Model Users may share with third parties such Values Only copies of the Model that have been generated using macros that are accessed by the Model s Command Menu All such electronic copies shall include the EconExpert Trademark and copyright notices as provided by CEI in the Model 9 4 Sharing of Printed Reports Generated by the Model The Model includes preprogrammed algorithms accessible through the Model s Co
98. e received an exe auto extracting file from CEI or the CEI Website using My Computer or Windows Explorer locates the directory where you saved the files and double click on them to initiate unzipping the files 09 29 2010 Page 17 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 The Initial Installation File you receive from CEI will only enable the use of the model for a limited period usually 30 days If you have purchased an extended period license to use the EconExpert model CEI will provide you with the necessary authorization codes to fully enable your use of the model for the subscribed license period After completing the initial installation on any authorized computer you will not need to repeat this procedure to open or use EconExpert files on that computer e Step 2 Start Microsoft Excel and use the File Open command on the Excel Command Menu to select EconExpert Installation File V xxx xls from the directory where the Installation File has been added IMPORTANT NOTE EconExpert must be run with Macros Enabled Microsoft Excel Versions 2000 and later include a Security Setting that can prevent the user from opening spreadsheets that contain macros If this Security is set to HIGH then you will not be permitted to open EconExpert with Macros Enabled Excel 2002 2003 Office XP If you do not receive the message box from Excel asking if you want to Enable Macros it will first be necessary to set your Excel Security Setting t
99. e specified Discount Rate A negative NPV does not necessarily indicate that a project is losing money but rather that the IRR achieved by the project is less than the discount rate specified for the NPV calculation An NPV of 0 means that the IRR and Discount Rate are equal The Debt Service Coverage Ratios DSCR from the debt sheet are reported DSCR is a common metric used by banks and financing institutions to measure project performance versus debt obligations DSCR s are provided on a both a before tax and an after tax basis Debt Coverage Ratio Before Tax is defined as the Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation EBITAD divided by the debt service payment and the fees on the Senior Debt The Coverage Ratio after tax on the 09 29 2010 Page 76 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Senior Debt is defined as the net cash flow after tax available to cover debt divided by the debt service payment and the fees on the Senior Debt Results in Table 8 are expressed based on the Owner s percentage interest in the project 17 Table 8A NPV amp IRR Unleveraged Table 8A provides calculation of the Net Present Value NPV and Internal Rate of Return IRR on an unleveraged basis using results from Table 7A NPV calculations are performed based on the Owner s interest in the project discounted to the year of project financial closing IRRs are independent of the Owner s interest in the project The IRR represents the afte
100. eature in EconExpert The IRR and Net Present Value NPV are summarized at the top of Table 1 where you can continuously view how they react to changes in Inputs to Table 1 Microsoft Excel uses an iterative technique for calculating IRR The guess is a number that you guess is close to the result you expect for the IRR Starting with guess the IRR calculation cycles until the result is accurate within 0 00001 percent If IRR can t find a result that works after 20 tries the NUM error value is returned In most cases you do not need to provide guess for the IRR calculation If the guess is omitted it is assumed to be 0 1 10 percent If the IRR result gives the NUM error value or if the result is not close to what you expected try again with a different value for guess The IRR Guess is entered in Column I just above Table 1 Figure 57 Table 1 Global Inputs The IRR Guess Guesses Used for IRR Iteration Before Tax 0 00 After Tax NPV and IRR Summary Years Leveraged Unleveraged Note that the IRR Summary Table at the top of the Global Input sheet allows the user to specify what IRR Terms should be studied The third input column of this table is especially important because it specifies the IRR Term that will be used in EconExpert s Automated Sensitivity Analyses 09 29 2010 Page 110 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 2 Table 1C Annual Inputs Annual Inputs apply only to a
101. ected the model will issue incremental shares which will result in dilution of earnings in proportion to the additional shares issued The resulting current price earnings ratio is applied to estimate future stock performance based on accretion dilution of shares associated with new project equity and the resulting net income additions from the project to the Owner s account See the section above for information on how to issue shares in place of project equity 09 29 2010 Page 91 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Figure 39 Table 1 Global Inputs Owner s Stock Performance Owner s Stock Performance EPS Earnings Share Share Price in 2004 Prior to Operations Million Shares Outstanding in 2004 Forecasted EPS in 2004 w o Project Expected Price Earnings Ratio 30 00 300 0 Annual Growth 150 5 0 20 0 If desired the user may alternatively provide an annual baseline data on the Owner s Stock in Table 1C h Energy Pricing Profile EconExpert allows input to Table 1 of Forward Energy prices in one to four periods The user can also assign names to each of these periods as appropriate Defaults are 1A 1B 2A and 2B The user may also specify the percentage of life of project yearly production that is generated during each of the specified periods EconExpert will calculate a composite yearly energy price for use in the proforma and will calculate yearly net revenues from energy sales dur
102. ective sensitivity analysis must be executed prior to viewing or printing the table A warning will be issued advising you to be sure the sensitivity is executed before the table is viewed or printed For additional discussion of Sensitivities see the next section and page 127 09 29 2010 Page 30 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 3 SENSITIVITIES The SENSITIVITIES Menu provides you with options to perform special calculations including the calculation of the annual Project Rate Base and the Project Valuation and to study how the Project Valuation Net Present Value or Internal Rate of Return of the current case will be impacted by incrementing key inputs to the model Each of the respective Sensitivities is performed by varying the identified input over the life of the project Options on the SENSITIVITY menu include O Rate Base Revenue Requirements Calculation EconExpert is equipped with a utility that automatically calculates the Revenue Requirements and pass through costs for a regulated Investor Owned Utility or a Public Power Utility e Investor Owned Utility Economics The annual project Rate Base for an Investor Owned Utility or other regulated entity is calculated based on a Target Return on Equity ROE The ROE is calculated in the model using the Net Income derived from the Income Statement divided by the sum of the Mid Year Plant Basis and Spare Parts minus the Mid Year Debt Balance The Revenue Requirements
103. ed Computer and each time you renew your license to the model Select OK and the following screen will appear 09 29 2010 Page 21 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Figure 10 The EconExpert License Agreement Sheet EJ Microsoft Excel NO EconExpert PV Proforma V14 9025 4 2010 NO xls i SWISS g zlA A B Ir t DL 1 ES EJ S SL EZ inl 58 13 17 Gr Wee 0 Eg x 2l ALI 4D 95 2G HEY File Edit View Insert Format Tools Data Window Help AdobePDF ENABLEPV MODEL NAVIGATE PRINT SENSITIVITIES UTILITIES EconExpert HELP E f x f This is a PAID License L8 c 0o OL IMPORTANT PLEASE READ THE TERMS OF YOUR SOFTWARE LICENSE Today is 9129 2010 License Period 7116 2010 Until 9124 2011 Print License The EconExpert PV Financial Model by Sce Bottom of Gheat to Aoii Competitive Energy Insight Inc SOFTWARE LICENSE AGREEMENT Read Carefully Before Using This Software Before the installation of this software can be completed you must accept the terms of the License Agreement the Agreement below by clicking on the I HAVE READ AND ACCEPT button at the end of this Agreement If you do not accept the License Agreement terms you are not authorized to use the EconExpert Model This is a legal agreement between you the Licensee either an individual or an entity as the original purchaser and Competitive Fnergy Insight Inc CEI By pressing the ACCEPT button below you agree to be bound
104. ed Computers The number of specific Authorized Computers must be authorized in writing fax or email by CEI usually by invoice and associated receipt of payment from Licensee Neither Licensee nor its Authorized Users may sublicense assign or transfer the license granted hereunder to any third party and any attempt at any such sublicense assignment or transfer is void Licensee and its Authorized Users may not copy distribute modify reverse engineer or create Derivative Works as hereinafter defined except as expressly authorized by this Agreement and the Model Authorized Users are authorized to use the Model only on the computers specified in writing fax or email by CEI and the list of such computers shall only be modified with documented approval by CEI which may be by written agreement fax or email 3 Termination In the event of a breach of this Agreement by Licensee CEI may terminate this Agreement Upon termination or expiration of the term of this Agreement Licensee s and Authorized Users license to the Model shall terminate At the end of the term of this license or upon its earlier termination unless this Agreement is extended by a written faxed or emailed notice provided by CEI Licensee shall destroy all electronic copies of the Model Licensee for itself for its Parents for its Affiliates and for its Subsidiaries Licensee and or Affiliates hereby agrees and stipulates that in the event that Licensee and or Affiliates sha
105. ed Major Maintenance e Capitalized Major Maintenance e Expensed Major Maintenance o Revenue Sources e All Revenues including those listed below and Energy Sales Other By Product Sales Other Energy Sales e Capacity Ancillary Services Payments e Additional Revenue Sources Input to Table 1C e Steam Sales o Plant Operations e Net Plant Heat Rate e Annual Plant Capacity Factor o Property Taxes and Insurance e Property Taxes e Insurance o Variable O amp M Expenses e All Variable O amp M Including all of the parameters listed below and Purchased Power Purchased Steam Annual Emissions Allowances User Defined Category 1 User Defined Category 2 Ammonia Use of NOx Removal Solid Waste Disposal Sorbent Use for SO2 Removal The Sensitivity Sheet is used to perform the individual sensitivity analyses The Sensitivity Increment specified on the Sensitivity Sheet is the percentage variation or the absolute amount of variation from the current case of the selected variable that is used to perform sensitivity analyses The increment is used to iterate the model over a range of three times the increment running the complete financial analysis for each incremented value and then plotting the leveraged and unleveraged IRR as a function of the incremental variations of the selected parameter 09 29 2010 Page 33 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 For each Sensitivity Analysis a graph will be generated showing you how t
106. el can be generated in multiple formats with options to print tables selectively or in various levels of summary detail If desired you can also create your own custom reports using the Excel File Page Setup or File Print options just as you would from any standard Excel spreadsheet Please note that the EconExpert Software License Agreement requires that you include the Copyright Notice on any printed reports that you create Options on the PRINT menu include e Tables LETTER 8 x 11 in Paper 20 Years of Results Select this option to print the first 24 months of the Construction Period results or the first 20 years of the Operating Period Results to letter sized paper e Tables LEGAL 8 x 14 in Sized Paper 30 Years of Results Select this option to print the first 36 months of the Construction Period results or the first 30 years of the Operating Period results to legal sized paper e Tables LARGE 11 x 17 in Paper 30 Years of Results Select this option to print the first 36 months of the Construction Period results or the first 30 years of the Operating Period results to 11 x 17 in paper This is the largest format printout e Current Case Graphs Select this button to print the various graphs provided under the Worksheet Tabs Graphs 4 5 and 6 These graphs show results for the current case Results will be printed to Letter Sized paper e Tornado Tables and Graphs Print the Tables and Graphs that are gener
107. ene ennt nennen Figure 13 Acknowledging or Declining the EconExpert Software License esee Figure 14 License Accepted Notification Save to New Filename sees Figure 15 INSTALLATION COMPLETED Run Tutorial eese neret Figure T6 The EconExpert Title Screens cscs ote eee Be ee ee ence abil ed He ture ti de iets Figure 17 First Window in the EconExpert Tutorial eesessseeesseseeeeeseeenee enne enne enne enne Figure 18 The EconExpert Command Menu seeeseeseeseeeeeeeene ener enr en erinnere testen nente Figure 19 Inputting the Term of Sensitivity Analyses or Tornado Diagrams eee Figure 20 Example of Sensitivity Analysis Graph rennen eren entrent Figure 21 Inputting the Term of Sensitivity Analyses or Tornado Diagrams eee Figure 22 Tornado Diagrams Data Input Sheet eee essere ener nennen nennen enne Figure 23 Example Lornado Di gram eae tn e eed desee eee pe He e e Er eee Leonel Figure 24 Example Display of Current Contents of Holding Bins eeeeeeeeeeeernene Figure 25 Hourly Entries to the Data Conversion Sheet eese ener entree Figure 26 Spark Spread Calculations EP Model Only eese enne enne Figure 27 Data Import Instructions un ree dtes Ou eee E a ter D E cee Figure 28 Comparing Data Files Highlighting of Inputs that Changed in a TARGET
108. ent These inputs will override Table 1 Entries In the example shown the Capacity Ancillary Services Payment will be set to 5 00 in year 2 of plant operations but will be based on the Global Input entry in other years Steam Sales Inputs the annual 1000 Ib value of the steam expressed in Current Year escalation is not applied Note that the net plant heat rate is computed based on the Rated Net Plant Capacity and does not account for these sales These inputs will override Table 1 Entries In the example shown the Annual Price for Steam Sales will be set to 2 00 3 00 and 4 00 in years 2 3 and 4 of plant operations but will be based on the Global Input in other years Additional Revenue Sources including Renewable Energy Credits The user may input the 1000 of additional income sources into any of 5 User Defined Categories in any year of the project life Values are input in Current and are not escalated by the model These amounts will be added to other revenue sources calculated from Table 1 Inputs and the Table 1C Capacity Ancillary Services and Steam Sales income sources discussed above In the example shown an additional revenue of 10 000 000 is added in the third year of operations This feature is of particular value for modeling multiple power purchase or steam sales agreements The labels input by the user will appear in the corresponding tables and reports throughout the model Note that the user may also define t
109. er ON Peak Duct Firing 5 x 18 27 50 27 65 27 79 2192 28 05 2817 2910 2923 29 Summer Mid Peak 2 x 16 1133 1124 1115 1104 1092 10 80 1145 1133 n Summer OFF Peak 7 x 8 3 00 2 79 2 56 233 208 1 82 234 208 1 Fall ON Peak Duct Firing 5 x 16 17 50 17 50 1748 1746 1744 1740 1817 1813 18 Fall Mic Peak 2 x 16 6 67 651 634 616 591 sm 635 615 5 Fall OFF Peak 7 x 8 1 00 0 76 0 50 0 24 0 04 0 34 015 0 14 0 Winter ON Peak Duct Firing 5 x 15 24 00 24 04 24 07 24 09 24 11 24 11 25 08 25 09 25 Winter Mid Peak 2 x 16 793 774 754 732 7 09 685 755 730 7 Winter OFF Peak 7 x 8 0 72 1 05 1 39 2 13 57 095 49 49 49 0 4 45 49 65 46 5 99 4 99 69 69 45 6 BE p 2 46 A 49 4 65 45 4 49 49 40 99 49 4 D 49 9 49 49 5 D 5 e 46 49 4 4 4 4 45 40 6 e 5 4 o 60 5 65 45 9 e e 5 49 4 45 4 9 4 69 45 9 6 4 99 9 49 HH 4A 9 4 60 4 AEE FFF qo 69 45 o 49 6 60 65 4 D 9 6 4 49 69 9 P 9 a 49 A A A OO 46 49 65 0 4 40 40 49 46 49 699 9 0 9 0 49 45 49 49 6 0 65 4 4 6 4 5 09 4 o 99 99 qu 9 69 6 WAS EA 49 4 4 65 45 4 45 45 45 65 499 FH d 4 5 65 OM D Period 24 Diff 321 i 4 gt M Tite f Status Sensitivities Project Summary Data Conversion TableiGlobalInputs Table 1C AnnualInputs Table2Summary
110. er scrolling through the table or by using the NAVIGATE Feature on the Command Menu 09 29 2010 Page 111 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Individual input titles in Table 1C appear on the left of the table followed by the Input Indicator and notes about the group of inputs On the right side of the table shaded cells provide locations for inputs of annual data starting in the first operating year of the project life Table 1C is organized in the following sections Escalation Annual GNP Deflator Plant Performance Capacity Capacity Factor Heat Rate and Degradation as Applicable Energy Sales Profiles by Period Energy Pricing by Period Other Revenues Capacity Steam Renewable Energy Credits and By Product Sales Fuel Quality Btu sulfur and ash content EP Only Fuel Pricing by Period EP Only Operating Costs Fixed and Variable Major Maintenance Capitalized and Expensed Debt Service Construction debt Senior Debt and Subordinated Debt Property Taxes Insurance Depreciation and Income Taxes After Tax Dividends Corporate Stock Performance Examples of how you can use Annual Inputs to Table 1C to perform custom calculations include e Modeling forward price curves for fuel and energy e Evaluating the impacts of plant performance degradation and recovery after maintenance including saw tooth curve shaped degradation in Plant Capacity or Heat Rate e Customized deb
111. erage heat rate As a result the amounts calculated in Table 2 using conversion of Twenty Four period data to EconExpert format may not match the individual 24 Period amounts shown below but instead will represent an average This is a result of the averaging of the fuel price and not a calculation error in the model 09 29 2010 Page 50 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 j Import Data EconExpert is equipped with a utility that allows you to transfer input data from one copy of the model to another This feature is most useful when you have received an update or upgrade to the model and need to easily transfer data to the new version without having to manually re enter the data It is also a convenient way in combination with the Holding Bins to consolidate models The procedure to access this feature follows e From the UTILITIES menu select Import Data Transfer Data from another EconExpert Model e The following screen will then appear Figure 25 Data Import Instructions EconExpert Importing Data from Another EconExpert Model p xj x IMPORTANT FOR SUCCESSFUL DATA IMPORT PLEASE READ AND FOLLOW THESE INSTRUCTIONS Before transferring data you must open two copies of the EconExpert Model 1 The Destination EconExpert Model that you want to transfer data to This Destination model MUST be opened FIRST 2 The Source EconExpert Model that you want transfer data from This Source model MUST be o
112. ers Manual Copyright 2001 2010 UTILITIES Show or Hide Help Comments in Cells Hide All Comments If disabled Comments can ENABLED from this same Show or Hide menu option Figure 28 Example of EconExpert s On Line Help Comments EQ Microsoft Excel EconExpert LP Proforma V4 0 323BETA xls 1 OSH EAR SRY SBB Slo o zr HU Mao OPGLA DE Arial A a Blz u me 3 SAD A c c m E a ole wel Se oen n nA ESE Mec 8X B30 x f 74 lt Ei Ta a Guesses Used for IRR Ite Select Checkbox to Use XIRR XIRR Requires Analysis ToolPak e 23 y s on 003 24 Table 1 Section 1A GLOBAL INPUTS Global Inputs Holding Bin 1 is Not Labled CACERCEI Proforma CE Commercial Proforma EconExzpert a5 Shaded Areas Indicate Inputs LP Proforma V4 0 323BETA zIs Table 1 Global Inputs Global Inputs Holding Bin 2 is Not Labled 26 Active Annual Inputs Sheet is Not Labeled NPV to by EOY 2003 1000 mem A e Levera eee e j E b 82 00 s 15 992 i E esee is enn f a NE rs E rr warranties with respect to the accuy Proforma NOTES Plant Capacity Heat Rate amp Fuel Type ines and Fuel Pricing Profiles Rated Net Plant Caj ine Peric oe This i is the a plant heat rate Btu kwh based on net aaa electric Net Hon Rate 7900 Yi 14 power generating capacity If the plant will be cycled during the year this Bed r
113. ersion Sheets this menu also allows you to e CLEAR the Custom Construction Drawdown and Construction Period Debt Equity Schedules Any inputs to a custom drawdown and debt equity schedules will be cleared and the default S Curve Drawdown that EconExpert automatically calculates to match your construction period will be restored e Load the Example Natural Gas Fired Combined Cycle and Example Coal Fired Boiler Case The Example cases in EconExpert are described in the Appendix to the User s Manual as primers to assist you in becoming familiar with the model These cases are provided for Illustrative Purposes Only and are not intended to represent a Real Commercial Situation Discussions in the Appendix to this User s Manual use these illustrative cases to describe examples of how to use EconExpert 09 29 2010 Page 43 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 b Table Viewing Format Selecting this option will allow you to change the format of the Tables in the model The options include e Input Cell Shading You can toggle the format of Inputs Cells in Tables 1 and 1C between Shaded and Bold Italics The default status of unprotected Input Cells in Tables 1 and 1C is Shaded allowing you to easily differentiate between protected formula cells and unprotected input cells in the model Since shaded entries may be difficult to read if they are copied or faxed you can use this option to select the preferred format e Freezing Ti
114. es including fuel consumption sulfur quantity and SO2 production are reported Figure 42 Table 1 Global Inputs Fuel Qualit Fuel Quality Selected Fuel Solid Fuel or Oil Production Consumption at 100 Load Higher Heating Value of Fuel 44 800 Blulb i Fuel 73125 MMBtulhr in Fuel 309 9 tons hour Ash in the Fuel by Weight 8 0 6 78 lb Ash MMBtu in fuel Ash 24 8 tons hour in Fuel Sulfur in the Fuel by Weight 2 5 424 lb SO2 MMBtu in fuel Sulfur 77 tons hour in Fuel 09 29 2010 Page 94 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 k SO2 Removal by CFB or Scrubbers for coal or biomass fired projects EP Model Only Using Inputs to Table 1 EconExpert will calculate the sorbent consumption solid waste generation and variable operating costs associated with SO2 removal using standard commercial Circulating Fluidized Bed Wet Scrubber or Dry Scrubber Technologies Options for SO2 Sorbent include lime limestone or alkali To turn off this feature simply select 0 for the SO2 removal option The associated costs can be alternatively input in MWH in the variable operating costs inputs In order to estimate SO2 removal costs and reagent waste quantities the user is required to specify the Fuel Higher Heating Value Sulfur content in the fuel Percent SO2 removal emissions in Ib MMBtu are reported in the input table Method of SO2 removal Type of sorbent Calcium to sulfur ratio Cost o
115. es issued during the term of their Software License Rates for a subscription can be quoted by CEI All users of the EconExpert model will be required to acknowledge their acceptance of the EconExpert Software License Agreement in order to fully enable the model Please see the Getting Started section of this manual for additional information regarding the Software License A copy of the License is included on the License Sheet in the model and in the Appendix of this User s Manual If you open EconExpert when your current license is within twenty one days of expiration the model will notify you that your license is about to expire The EconExpert Help Menu includes an automated feature that allows you to extend the period of a license by entering a License Extension Code which can be provided by CEI By contacting CEI and entering the necessary codes your license term can be extended at any time In the event that your installation of EconExpert experiences problems this feature may also be used to revalidate a current license If you forward copies of EconExpert to others who do not have an active license the model you send them can be enabled as a Fully Functional Model by CEI using these License Codes If others attempt to open a model you have sent them and they are not authorized they will be advised how to contact CEI to obtain the needed codes Without these codes unauthorized copies of the model will not function properly Once the a
116. estment Costs 1000 ikv Breakdown of Soft Costs 1000 ikw ss Phase 1 Project Development 10000 20 Startup Mobilize or Fixed O amp M 775 2 36 Phase 2 Engineering Construction Start up 354 200 708 Working Capital or months of fuel 10525 21 37 Soft Costs 37838 76 Debt Reserve or Mos of Payments 16538 33 Interest During Construction amp Loan Fees 33914 68 Total 435352 872 Sub Total Soft Costs 1000 27838 56 a1 Energy Pricing in First Year of Operations 2006 Fuel Pricing in First Year of Operations 2006 42 Period 14 Period 14 Energy Price 47 38 IMWH Period 1AB Gas FOB Supplier 295 IMMEBtu 43 Period 1B Period 1B Energy Price 3015 MWH M 4 vif Title Status f Sensitivities Project Summary Data Conversion Table iGlobalInputs Table iC Annual Inputs Table2Summary f Table 3Cons gt f Ready NUM The user is free to modify and customize this summary and it can be extracted to any other application including another Excel Workbook or MS Word To unprotect and modify the Summary sheet select UTILITIES Range Protection of Graphs and Project Summary Sheets You may then modify the sheet change entries add or delete rows etc tying formulas in the table to other cells throughout the model As long as you do not make changes outside of the boxed section of the sheet the resulting summary that you create can be reported usin
117. f Operation Par 1 2 3 4 Description 2006 2007 2008 2009 Months of Operation During Year Holding Bin 3 is not labled 12 12 12 12 Shaded Cells Indicate Inputs Holding Bin 4 is not labled All Annual Inputs expressed at values are entered in Current Proforma Fuel Prices FOB Supplier MMBtu Periods 1A amp B Period 1A Period 1B i 9999999 265 300 340 320 Periods 2A amp B Period 2A Period 2B 9999999 215 2175 282 2 89 09 29 2010 Page 117 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 g Fixed and Variable Operating Costs The next section of Table 1C provides Annual Operating Cost Inputs as follows Annual Variable O amp M costs corresponding to the User Defined Variable O amp M Categories 1 or 2 may be entered in Current MWH These inputs are not escalated and will override Table 1 Entries In the example shown User Defined Variable O amp M Category 1 defined by the user in Table 1 as Non Fuel Variable O amp M will be set to 3 00 MWH in the second year of operation The second User Defined Variable O amp M category which has not been named by the user in Table 1 will be set to 3 00 MWH In other years the inputs will default back to Table 1 Global Input Entries Annual Fixed O amp M costs corresponding to the User Defined Variable O amp M Categories 1 may be entered in Current 1000 These inputs are not escalated and will override Table 1 Entries In the example shown User Defined Fixed O
118. f Table3Cons Drawy y AutoShapes L1O B4 2i um Ov ZA E Eg Tn TIP Use the spark spreads to specify plant dispatch by calculating the Period Capacity Factors using the spark spreads Please note the following points when you use this feature e All data is entered in Current e Data can be copied and pasted from other sources The pasted data should be pasted AS VALUES from the source data file or can be linked using formulas e Aggregated results will be referenced by formulas in the Annual Inputs Sheet overwriting the current Annual Inputs and overriding Global Inputs in the years that non zero values are transferred e If block period data is utilized it is recommended that the user enter that data for the whole project life If the data is not available for the whole project life use formulas in the cells to project the data over the entire project life Otherwise where blank cells or zeros are transferred to the Annual Inputs Sheet the Global Inputs data will be applied Using this advanced feature of the model customized dispatch studies can be performed For example the plant capacity factor can be modeled by period linked to the spark spread or energy pricing 09 29 2010 Page 49 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Note that Four period spark spreads shown in Table 2 Summary are based on four period energy pricing composite two period fuel prices and an annual av
119. f net income after tax e A Summary Breakdown of Revenues Expenses Debt Service Income Taxes and Net Income 22 Table 13 Depreciation Table 13 provides calculations of Depreciation for Cash and for Book Purposes Depreciation is used to recover investment costs for items that have multi year lives including the initial Capital Investment and Major Maintenance Expenses that occur during the life of the project Table 13 includes the following e Depreciation for Tax Initial Capital Investment IRS Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery MACRS Schedules e Depreciation for Tax Major Maintenance o Periodic Major Maintenance Expenses using the Major Maintenance Frequency defined in Table 1 o Other Capital Improvements Four schedules are provided in Table 1C that allow the user to input additional Capitalized Major Maintenance Expenses using Depreciation lives of 5 10 15 or 20 years e Depreciation for Book Initial Investment and Major Maintenance o The Initial Capital Investment Periodic Major Maintenance Expenses and Other Capital Improvements are depreciated using the Straight Line methods specified in Tables 1 and 1C 09 29 2010 Page 79 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 23 Graphs Sensitivity 1 4 Included in Separate Sensitivity Charts File Four worksheets in EconExpert provide plots showing results of Sensitivity Analyses to study how the IRR of a project will be impacted by incrementing individu
120. f the project based on inputs to either Table 1 or Table 1C You can specify the term in years of the IRR and NPV Analyses that are used in the Tornado Diagrams by entering the desired number of years in the third column of the NPV and IRR Summary Tables at the top of Table 1 The location of the entry is identified by the red bold faced title IRR TERM FOR SENSITIVITY STUDIES as shown in Figure 21 below Figure 74 Inputting the Term of Sensitivity Analyses or Tornado Diagrams No Annual Inputs Used NPV and IRR Summary Years Leveraged j 9 569 Unleveraged i i 10 00 66 565 These Tornado Diagrams show respectively how the leveraged and unleveraged IRR will be impacted by changes in inputs to the program that fall into the following classes e Equity and Debt Related Inputs o Owner s Equity o Financing Owner s Equity During Operations Phase Interest Rate on Construction Debt Interest Rate on Senior Debt Interest Rate on Subordinated Debt Term of Senior Debt Term of Subordinated Debt 09 29 2010 Page 132 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 e Fuel and Variable O amp M Related Inputs o Net Plant Heat Rate o Fuel Price e Annual Delivered Periods 1 and Period 2 with Transportation o Variable O amp M Expenses e All Variable O amp M Including Purchased Power Purchased Steam Annual Emissions Allowances User Defined Category 1 User Defined Category 2 Ammonia Use of NOx Removal Solid Wa
121. f the sorbent in ton Figure 43 Table 1 Global Inputs SO2 Removal Environmental Controls 02 Removal by CFB or Scrubbers Consumption at 100 Annual Load Factor Sulfur Removal 90 0 0 42 lb S02 MMBtu emitted 1 55 TonsSO2 emitted hour Method of S02 Removal Enter 0 for None or to Disable Calculated Sorbent Enter 1 for CFB or Dry Scrubber 2 for Wet Scrubber 2 Wet Scrubber Sorbent Purity Mole Weight 11 8 Tons of Lime Sorbent for SO2 Removal Enter 0 for None or to Disable 90 Tons solid waste hour Enter 1 for Lime 2 for Limestone 3 for Alkali DRY SCRUB 4 Lime 40 0 55 9 Ash Sorbent Calcium to S Ratio 1 1 Sludge 60 Solids 40 Moisture Calculated Lime Consumption 1 53 Tons Lime Added Ton of Sulfur at 9096 sorbent purity 09 29 2010 Page 95 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 D NOx Removal by Selective Catalytic Reduction SCR or Selective Non Catalytic Reduction SNCR EP Model Only SCR and SNCR are two common methods for reducing NOx emissions Using Inputs to Table 1 EconExpert will calculate the consumption of anhydrous ammonia and will predict variable operating costs associated with NOx removal using standard commercial SCR or SNCR technologies The associated costs can be alternatively input in MWH in the variable operating costs inputs In order to perform the NOx reduction calculations the user is required to specify the Uncontrolled NOx emissions Percent NOx Red
122. fies the tax rates to be applied for Federal and State Income Taxes State Income Taxes are treated as a deduction for the purpose of estimating Federal Income Taxes You may also customize the annual Federal and State Tax rates in Table 1 Annual Inputs The user may also select an Investment Tax Credit to be applied towards Federal or State Income Taxes The Investment Tax Credit ITC is calculated as a percentage of the project capital costs If the Investment Tax Credit is selected the total annual depreciation basis for Cash Tax purposes should be reduced by the amount of any Investment Tax Credit that is applied Figure 55 Table 1 Global Inputs Income Taxes and Investment Tax Credit ITC Tax Credit Income Taxes and Investment Tax Credits Federal Income Tax Rate State Income Tax Rate Effective Combined Income Tax Rate 38 396 Capital Gains Rate Plant Salvage 18 0 If desired the user may alternatively provide annual additional deductions and tax amounts in Table 1C 09 29 2010 Page 108 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 u Property Taxes and Insurance Property Taxes and Insurance can be individually input in Table 1 as amounts in 1000 year and as a Factored amount if both entries are used they are summed as follows The Factor for estimation of life of project yearly Property Taxes and Insurance is the percentage of current book Asset Basis As the asset is depreciated and the
123. g and coal gasification liquefaction applications TM TM TM EconExpert IAT EconExpert IAT for PV and EconExpert IAT for WIND for Interval Analysis of Combined Heat and Power Photovoltaics and Wind projects Simulate time of production analysis of energy sales as a function of interval energy prices demand load profiles hourly ambient weather conditions and facility operating characteristics EconExpert MAESTRO M an Electronic Databook for integrated analysis of multiple scenarios or projects based in your own custom models or in EconExpert Models With this tool users can perform tasks like consolidation of multiple projects into portfolio analysis providing consolidated expense debt revenue and book and cash financial statements and develop comparisons of complex and distinct scenarios contracting analysis and risk analysis integrating one or more of the EconExpert models described above For the calendar year 2010 CEI is providing the MAESTRO Databook for free with any subscription for 2 or more of the EconExpert models above 09 29 2010 Page 140 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 The EconExpert Modeling Suite For All Renewable or Fossil Project Investment Analvsis Vertical Project Partnership and Interval Models Financial Models Leasing Modules Electric Power Wholesale Wind EconExpert EconExpert Solar Photovoltaics IAT for WIND WIND Solar Thermal EconExpert Land Fill Gas Natu
124. g the PRINT option on the Command Menu 09 29 2010 Page 64 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 7 Table 1 Global Inputs Table 1 is where Global Inputs are entered Global Inputs are premises that typically apply over the life of the project or input values that are escalated at a constant rate over the life of the project Examples of Global Inputs include the Plant Capacity and Net Plant Heat Rate if those values do not change over life of the project and the cost of energy fuel or fixed O amp M which can each be entered as constant dollar values with respective real escalation components to be applied over the life of the project A screen shot of Table 1 is provided below Figure 30 Screen Shot of Table 1 Global Inputs EJ Microsoft Excel NO EconExpert PV Proforma V14 9025 4 2010 NO xls alle CER SENSITIVITIES UTILITIES EconExpert HELP D Guesses Usedfc PY Inputs Wizard EconEzpert PY Menu Table 1 PV Global Inputs Section 1 PV Global Inputs Holding Bin 1 is Hot Labeled CACERCEI ProformaXCEI Commercial Proformat P NO Shaded Areas Indicate Inputs Hame of File EconEzpert PY Proforma 14 9025 4 2010 NO zls Table 1P Global Inputs PV Global Inputs Holding Bin 2 is Hot Labeled Desc n Solar PV Example for Training Purposes Only Active Annual Inputs Sheet is Mot Labeled XIRR TERM FOR SENSITIVITY STUDIES x After Tax XIRR B I An iA HERE After Tax XHPV No Annual Overrides Mid Year AND
125. g your acceptance of the Software License Remember under the terms of a Paid Subscription to EconExpert you will receive 30 Days of Free Technical Support from CEI Please feel to contact us if you have questions The contact information can be obtained from the EconExpert HELP Menu by Selecting About EconExpert Extending My License Information on CEI and the EconE pert Model Thank Y ou for Subscribing to EconE pert a Universal Tool for the Power Generation Industry Select OK to continue The model will again be saved to a new directory named C EconExpert Files e Step 6 After accepting the License you will be asked if you would like to view the EconExpert Tutorial Figure 13 INSTALLATION COMPLETED Run Tutorial EconExpert LP Run Tutorial E xi Installation COMPLETED Would you like to view the EconExpert4 P Tutorial Select YES if you would like to view the Tutorial which is highly recommended for new users and it will take about 10 20 minutes If you elect not to view the Tutorial at this time it can be accessed later from the EconExpert Help option on the Command Menu e Step 7 The model has been fully initialized and is ready for use All copies of EconExpert models that you save will be Fully Functional on Licensed Computers used by you or others during the applicable License Period for that user Note that copies of the spreadsheet will not work properly on computers that do not have license
126. ged 14 896 62 096 55 196 IRR 20 Years Unleveraged 12 396 19 396 17 796 NPV After Tax 20 Years at 12 096 Discount Rate Leveraged 25 757 7 705 50 7 176 56 NPV After Tax 20 Years at 10 096 Discount Rate Unleveraged 6 042 42 5 298 44 Heat Rate Sensitivity 6 096 4 096 Heat Rate Sensitivity Increment 2 0 Percent change from base cas 96 of Base Case Heat Rate 94 096 96 096 Delta Heat Rate Btu kwh 420 280 Heat Rate Btu kwh 7 000 6 580 6 720 96 of Base Case Plant Efficiency 106 096 104 096 Plant Efficiency 96 48 896 51 996 50 896 Base Case IRR 20 Years Leveraged 14 896 44 696 44 396 IRR 20 Years Unleveraged 12 396 15 296 15 196 25 757 6 246 55 6 195 76 60 217 3 980 96 3 924 14 NPV After Tax 20 Years at 12 0 Discount Rate Leveraged NPV After Tax 20 Years at 10 096 Discount Rate Unleveraged AA After executing a Sensitivity Analysis the user will be taken to the resulting graph that illustrates how the project IRR is impacted by changes in the selected variable A sample of that graph is shown on the next page 09 29 2010 Page 130 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Figure 73 Graphs Produced from Sensitivity Analyses IRR Leveraged IRR Unleveraged Options on the SENSITIVITIES menu include e Project Valuation Sensitivities e Tornado Diagrams e Individual Sensitivity Cases You can run and print graphs for all of the sensitivity a
127. ght the fields that have been changed e A Temporary File that EconExpert will create and then delete Note that the TARGET and REFERENCE models MUST each have at least TWO available windows AND the TARGET and REFERENCE models MUST have different names AND BOTH MUST BE ENABLED A copy of each of the respective Input and Results Sheets from the TARGET model will be created in the COMPARISON file with a name that you designate All changes will be quantified and HIGHLIGHTED on a BRIGHT ORANGE Background Once initiated you will not be able to terminate this macro until it is completed You will be asked for two items when this procedure is initiated e The Name of the REFERENCE EconExpert Data File The REFERENCE file is the one that you want to compare the TARGET file against e The Name of the new COMPARISON file you want to create that will quantify and highlight the DIFFERENCES between the cases This COMPARISON file will be saved in the same directory as the TARGET File that you are identifying changes in Other important requirements for running this macro include e The name you entered for the REFERENCE Data file must be precisely correct e BOTH the TARGET AND REFERENCE models must be ENABLED 09 29 2010 Page 55 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 e There must NOT be a file with the same name as the COMPARISON file that is currently opened e Both the TARGET AND REFERENCE files have at least two available
128. given year in the life of the project You can use Annual Inputs any time that you would like to more precisely model a variable than can be accomplished using Table 1 Global Inputs Any non zero entry is read as an Annual Input and included in the calculations in the model If it is desired to enter a 0 for Annual Input use a very small number like 0 0000001 and the zero value will be used in the model Where appropriate this means that Global Inputs from Table 1 will be overridden in the years that Annual Inputs are entered The Figure below provides a Screen Shot of Table 1C Figure 58 Screen Shot of Table 1C El Microsoft Excel NO EconExpert PV Proforma V14 9025 4 2010 NO xls it Jill ee aoada il g ropit PRINT SENSITIVITIES UTILITIES EconExpert HELP C ae ee ee ee EconExnertPV V119027 1 conuriabt 2007 2010 CEng All Rights R lere to TABLE 1C tpi Warning Partial Year Operation in Year 1 and Year 26 ean Today is 09 29 2010 Yr of Operation Description Months of Operation During Year Holding Bin 3 i bled Shaded Cells Indicate Inputs Holding Bin 4 is not labled All Annual Inputs expressed at values are entered in Current 000s yr Proforma Notes Empty Cells or entries of 0 will result in Global Inputs being used in the A value of associated gear Otherwise unless otherwise indicated Annual Inputs override 9999999 Global Inputs in the gear that they are entered Enter a verg small number such means that
129. he IRR leveraged and unleveraged where applicable for your current case will be impacted by variations in the selected input An example graph is shown below Figure 18 Example of Sensitivity Analysis Graph IRR Leveraged IRR Unleveraged For additional information on using EconExpert s Automated Sensitivities see page 127 09 29 2010 Page 34 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 4 TORNDADO DIAGRAMS The SENSITIVITIES Menu also provides you with options to generate Tornado Diagrams Sometimes you may not have access to all of the detailed information needed to complete the input sheets requiring you to make guesses on certain inputs Tornado diagrams evaluate multiple sensitivities to determine which inputs in your analysis would have greatest impact on the results if those inputs were to change This allows you to quickly determine if the guesses you have made might be consequential to the analysis if they were to change You can specify the term in years of the IRR and NPV Analyses that are used in the Tornado Diagrams by entering the desired number of years in the third column of the NPV and IRR Summary Tables at the top of Table 1 The location of the entry is identified by the red bold faced title IRR TERM FOR SENSITIVITY STUDIES as shown in Figure 21 below Figure 19 Inputting the Term of Sensitivity Analyses or Tornado Diagrams NPV TERM FOR SENSITIVITY STUDIES AND
130. he titles for these User Defined Categories These titles will be accessible for Sensitivities and will be updated on the EconExpert menu when the menu is refreshed Figure 62 Table 1C Annual Inputs Other Revenue Sources User Defined Labels and Additional Annual Revenues Annual inputs Red Text Idiczte RARE SRE March 22 200 Yr of Operation kar 1 2 3 4 Description 2006 2007 2008 2009 Months of Operation Dufing Year Holding Bin 3 is not labled 12 12 12 12 Shaded Cells Indicate puts Holding Bin 4 is not labled Proforma Other Revenues Capacity Ancillary Svs flayment S kw mo Avg Annual Steam Prid 1000 Ib 0 Special Maintenance 9999999 5 000 Labor Bonus 9999999 3 000 Recurring Costs 9999999 E 2 500 2 563 2 563 2 563 Additional Revenues 4 1000 yr 0 Additional Revenues 5 1000 yr 0 09 29 2010 Page 116 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 e Fuel Quality EP Only This section of Table 1C allows you to specify the annual fuel quality used Resulting computations of emissions control costs including SO2 and NOx removal and solid waste disposal will reflect the associated changes if those features are enabled in Table 1 In the example shown the respective coal quality parameters will be set as indicated in years 1 2 and 3 of the project life In other years the coal quality data entered in Table 1 Global Inputs will be used Figure 63 Ta
131. i eane 26 B The EconExpert Command Menu smse tetet ae oenar i e a iea E a ee e e o a a oea 27 by AINAVIGAJTDB niter e taer ete oe el e Eo eg o CUR a E EE E e EE Ete 28 2 PRINT iSo deeem io tte e eee se bae e t ep ree e itea 29 3 SENS MTV ES 5 eerte un er aite edt P EMT ERES 31 4 TORNDADO DIAGRAM cc pesehemiereem e erdt e aed EE Ded dede 35 2 UTIEDDIBS uet ree re e erede IR T e tree tet et Po ee tet eee ee totas 39 a Show Pop Up NPV IRR and Payback Summaries eese nennen nnne tne 39 6 Load Global Inputs Wizard 2 2 60 eene eee ise taedet a e Tuer ee rie e eto e eae e e P ORG 40 a save Exchange or Reset Inputs inam tado e dts ete e Pie adea 40 b Table Viewing 7 Formats oie teinte tesi e obtento ete tete decet oer pereo aid 44 G AReformat Cel RET 44 d Trace Precedents or Dependents Debugging Your Model eene enn 44 e Range Protection for Project Summary and Graphs Sheets eese ener 45 f Change the Name of the Company that Appears in EconExpert Reports esee 45 g Show Hide Comments 35 ecrire EU ORI TIERE SEIS PEE a RR RI ERRARE EC EE PRSE EE secon ER 45 h Create Values Only Spreadsheet eene nene trt Hee eee He teer LE t ep er ER eoe Pre rete 45 i Data Conversion Convert Forward Pricing Data to Annual Input Format esee 47 J rou DECRE 51 k Comparing EconExpert Files and Identify Quantify D
132. iated gear Otherwise unless otherwise indicated Annual Inputs override 9999999 Global Inputs in the gear that they are entered Enter a verg small number such means that as 0 000001 if you would like to override the Global Input with an entry Annual Inputs equivalent to 0 have been entered scalation and Discounting Dates Discount Dates Currently used in Model 715 2011 752012 71 2013 GNP Escalation Rate for Revs amp Exps 96 Customize Construction Discount Dates in Table 7 Facilities Performance Rated Net PY Facility Capacity MV Entry in any cell sets Capacity Degradation thereafter Annual Net Capacity Factor Entries Energy Sales Profile of Annual MWH Period 1 Weighted Annual Average Energy Sales Price to Customer MWH 60 Period 1 Weighted Annual Average Paring Mo M Table 1C Annual Inputs Tab Ready Table 1C is range protected allowing you to enter data ONLY into specified blue shaded Input cells When a non zero entry appears on a shaded cell the format of that cell will change to indicating that data is present and used by the model 09 29 2010 Page 68 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Table 1C is organized into sections associated with each class of input categories and generally follows the organizational architecture of the Global Inputs sheet Input Categories are organized with their related Inputs listed in rows under that category The
133. ibute printed reports and charts as well as to provide others with electronic copies of EconExpert if such reports or electronic copies are generated by the EconExpert Model s Command Menu and contain the Copyright Notices included with the EconExpert Model You may also provide saved electronic copies of the EconExpert model to others but such copies will not function properly on unlicensed computers unless the Authorized License Codes are provided by Competitive Energy Insight Inc Warning Regarding Changing of Your Computer s Clock If you make changes to the setting of the clock on your computer particularly if you set the clock backwards after you have installed EconExpert or forwards beyond the end of your authorized license period an error will be produced when the EconExpert Model is opened While Excel can be closed and reopened normally EconExpert will not function properly if it is reopened after such invalid clock settings have been made If you encounter a problem related to the setting of your Computer Clock as it relates to EconExpert please contact CEI to discuss measures to repair your valid installation of the model Warning Regarding Use of EconExpert with Macros Enabled In order to properly install and use EconExpert the Macros Enabled option for Microsoft Excel MUST be selected The model will not function properly without Macros Enabled Microsoft Excel Versions 2002 and later include a Security Setting that can p
134. if applicable Locations where a red asterisk appears identify cells where a potential warning message is located but not needed Also note that when inputs are entered in Table 1C Annual Inputs the format of the corresponding input to the Global Inputs sheet will change to Bold Red and an Annual Input indicator will appear near to that affected Global Input This feature is provided just to advise you that a particular input to Table 1 is being overridden somewhere in the proforma 09 29 2010 Page 84 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 a Plant Capacity Heat Rate and Fuel Type The first section at the top left of Table 1 is where inputs on plant capacity heat rate and fuel selection are made Both Capacity and Heat Rate are entered as Net at the bus bar The figure below provides an illustration of these inputs Heat Rate and Fuel type information are not included in the PV model Figure 33 Plant Capacity Heat Rate and Fuel Type EP Example Plant Capacity Heat Rate amp Fuel Type Annual Capacity Inputs Rated Net Plant Capacity MVV M W Net Heat Rate Electricity Only 7 000 Annual Heat Rate Inputs Fuel Selection Enter 1 for Coal Coke Wood or Oil Enter 2 for Gas is 2 cas The Fuel Selection can be specified as either Coal Petroleum Coke Wood or Oil 2 Gas Natural Gas or Other Note the messages EconExpert provides in bold red text verifying
135. ifferences Between Cases esee 52 i Feature 1 You can compare the INPUT SHEETS of two different cases and identify which inputs have chased nemoe aE E EO EA Genie gee ET PUE 52 ii Feature 2 You can compare ALL OF THE SHEETS quantifying the magnitude of the delta changes between WO Cases desee ecce teta e Perte tele pere Etpe era Te Ra HH Ee nates Eoee EEPE E TENTA TEES iat 55 T7 BeonExpert On Line HELP eee RW eer eerie e E oe Peele ne 58 a The EconExpert Help Menu eia eer ch teet eer dated EU REOR Rel i e ra t Pee aie ated 58 b Help Comments t D ee LEE emite e E GU LEE Ru ives Seide esce iib tl Lt 58 C Worksheet Tabs 5 tec t hetero Hcet ea Bea deat ese oe eroe RUD e e Dea edet eee ee Doce RU Dye Oe e eoo de ao 60 DE i Le COMS E Psat OTA ea se aR A E AN ee Reet A E aaa en ee ene eden 62 DY Title tende eee iica tede ete oet deat etie ee ie aa 62 CAES ai MORE 63 a E EE P E E E E EEEE E TE E A A EE E AEE A E 63 5 Data C OVES O ane eee tt teer e ee be cR b dede be tede e A AO 63 6 Project Summary 0 pede ien eee ice nee ea e eo Les on et o Pe geb de tee etae rl t det Te oot Lov o Ce e Peng 64 7 Table T Global Inputs eere tede terree EIE o nan dentro inl eh aes 65 8 Table IC Annual Inputs 5 ee Feste o epa ru seth ete eet eel E e ee S 68 9 Table 2 Summary xo eoc ete uero ROO IRE Ue REOR DIE NR 71 09 29 2010 Page 5 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 10 Table 3
136. ing Global Inputs To locate specific input categories select from an alphabetical list of Input Categories used in Table 1C Annual Inputs Annual Inputs are inputs that apply in a single year during the life of the project When entered non zero inputs or results generated using formulas in the Annual Inputs Table will override or will be added to results otherwise calculated using the corresponding Global Input Details associated with Table 1C Annual Inputs are further described on page 111 e Data Conversion Select from an alphabetical list of Input Categories used in the Data Conversion Sheet The Data Conversion Sheet allows you to enter plant performance and forward pricing data in up to 24 block periods year and then to convert that data to an equivalent annual format for use in EconExpert For a detailed explanation see page 63 e Results Tables Select from a list of various Results Tables produced by the model The Results Tables are also identified by the Worksheet Tabs shown at the bottom of the Excel screen Descriptions of each of these tables and Worksheet Tabs are provided starting on page Zl e Current Case Graphs Select to view and edit the various charts or Graphs generated by EconExpert for the current case that you have set up in the model Descriptions of the Current Case Graphs sheets are provided starting on page 80 e Tornado Tables or Graphs Select to view the tables and graphs produced by EconExpert that are used to
137. ing each of the specified periods These inputs are specific to energy pricing only and do not allow you to vary plant performance as a function of pricing period For that type of more detailed analysis use the Data Conversion Feature which is described on Page 63 Figure 40 Table 1 Global Inputs Energy Sales and Fuel Use Profiles Energy and Fuel Pricing Profiles Period 1A Period 1B l Period 2A Period 2B T Summer On Peak Summer Off Peak Winter On Peak Winter Off Peak I of Annual MWH Produced 22 0 11 0 l 44 0 23 00 By Difference Annual Inputs Real Annual Inputs Real Annual Inputs Real Annual Inputs Real Period 1AB 2AB Energy Prices MWH Escalation IMWH Escalation Escalation MWH Escalation I Energy Payments MWH 44 00 oo 2800 0 0 0 0 29 00 0 0 Less Transmission Wheeling MWH 0 00 0 096 0 00 0 0 4 0 0 0 00 0 0 Net Energy Sales MWH 44 00 0 0 28 00 0 0 0 0 29 00 0 0 Period 1 2 Fuel Prices Period 1AB 33 Period 2AB 67 Gas at Wellhead 1s 2 65 S MMBtu 0 0 i 2 75 SIMMBtu 0 0 Transportation 1 1s MMBtu 0 0 MMBtu 0 0096 Transportation 2 1s S MMBtu 0 0 S MMBtu 0 00 Net Delivered Fuel Price 265 S MMBtu 0 00 E 2 75 S MMBtu 0 00 r 1 If desired the user may alternatively provide an annual forward energy prices in Table 1C 09 29 2010
138. innen 124 2 Creating a Values Only Copy of the EconExpert Model eese 126 F SensittVvity Analyses ctor Agree ettet entend e etie te eme rrt Am ere ue 127 G Tornado Diagrams seisein PUDE 132 H Customizing EconExpett meei ieena Eder cate a n a A as 136 D EconExpert Software License Agreement sees ene nren eren nnen nes tenn tente tene nnne enne 137 09 29 2010 Page 7 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 List of Figures How to Obtain a License Figure 1 How to Obtain an Authorized Subscription to EconExpert eese Figure 2 License Authorization Screen Yes No ccccesccsssecssecssecsseceseceseesseeeseesseeseeeseaeeeseeeaeeeaaecsaecsaecaeenaeeeaeees Figure 3 Extension Code Screen eto e e eei deed ete Figure 4 Enter User Name for New License sese eene nter entren enr en eren Figure S EconExpert Greeting Screens dtes spi ire ie ac Ra ete e tee boe e peo a bed scecestesaceetsen ined Figure 6 Microsoft Excel Enable Macros Screen eese eret neen tenen Figure 7 EconExpert Successful Installation Notice eese nennen nennen nennen eren en tenete Figure 8 EconExpert Copyright Notice Screen eeeseeeseeseeeeeee eene enne tne enr enne Figure 11 Notice Regarding the EconExpert License Agreement essere enne rennen Figure 12 The EconExpert License Agreement Sheet eese eene e
139. l be the sum of these two entries and will reflect the annual plant capacity factor Other Variable O amp M Cost Categories Additional categories available for entering Variable O amp M expenses include Steam Purchases Power Purchases and purchase of Emissions Allowances Steam and power purchases are calculated based on quantities and prices of the purchased commodity Emissions allowance purchases are calculated based on 1000 year costs in Base Year The calculated annual variable O amp M costs will reflect these entries and the plant capacity factor Variable O amp M inputs to Table 1 are expressed in Base Year and a Real Escalation factor is provided Note that real escalation will be added to the GNP Escalator to arrive at the actual escalation For additional information on escalation see page 86 Figure 46 Table 1 Global Inputs Variable O amp M Raw Materials amp Operating Costs Variable O amp M Costs Real Escalation 96 Alkali for SO2 Removal Variable l ton 0 0 Anhydrous Ammonia for NOx Removal Variable 300 00 ton 0 0 Solid Waste Disposal Variable Viton 0 0 1000 Yr 100 cr IMWH Water Treatment Consumables ls 1 25 5 475 1000 yr 100 CF 0 0 Variable O amp M 2 Is Ss 1000 yr 100 CF 0 0 Annual Emiss Allowances Variable 1000 yr 100 CF 0 0 Purchased Power Variable MW MWH 0 0 Purchased Steam Variable
140. le to change the cell formats from the Excel menu but this option has been added to the UTILITIES Menu allowing you to change the format of selected cells in the model You can selectively change the number format shading font color font type underline borders or column width of tables and cells in the model d Trace Precedents or Dependents Debugging Your Model Because the sheets in EconExpert are protected you will not be able to use the Audit feature on the Excel Tools menu This option is added to the EconExpert UTILITIES Menu allowing you to use 09 29 2010 Page 44 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 the Excel Trace Functions to determine which cells in the model provide source data for any cell of interest and which cells in the model depend on that cell The Trace Function will not allow you to view certain hidden cells in EconExpert Note that the Trace Dependents feature is not available from the EconExpert menu when using Excel 97 This is due to a latent bug in Microsoft Excel 97 that was corrected by Microsoft in Office 2000 and later versions e Range Protection for Project Summary and Graphs Sheets This option allows you to turn ON or to turn OFF the Range Protection for the Project Summary and the eight Graph Sheets This feature can be used to allow you to customize or enhance the model s preprogrammed graphs or to add new graphs to the model Unfortunately as various cases are run in any Excel m
141. le will override the default values in the months that they are entered Since the resulting drawdown schedule must sum to 100 it is recommended that you provide the complete drawdown schedule if custom drawdown entries are made A warning will be issued if the resulting drawdown schedule does not sum to 100 Table 3 is organized as follows o Construction Drawdown and Debt Equity Factors o Monthly Construction Cost Schedule o Cumulative Monthly Construction Cost Schedule The total monthly drawdown during the construction phase is computed as follows Land and Development Costs which may actually occur prior to closing are scheduled as a one time expense lumped in the first month of the construction phase Capital Costs and Loan Commitment Fees are expended according to the Drawdown Schedule Start up Mobilization and Spares costs are spread evenly overly the last six months of the Construction Schedule If the Schedule is shorter than six months they are divided evenly over the period Working Capital is accumulated over the last three months of the Construction Schedule If the Schedule is shorter than three months they are divided evenly over the period Debt Reserves are deposited in the last month of the schedule Interest During Construction is calculated and added to other construction term costs based on the percent of construction costs that are debt financed using the Construction Term Debt parameters and the
142. ll violate the terms of the Agreement Licensee and or Affiliates shall be jointly and severally be liable to CEI and CEI shall be entitled to damages and any and all equitable relief available to it at law or equity Licensee for itself and for Licensee and or Affiliates hereby agrees and stipulates that in the event of a violation of the Agreement CEI shall be entitled to receive appropriate restraining orders and injunctions restraining and enjoining Licensee and or Affiliates from any and all acts in violation of the Agreement as well as any damages that may be suffered by CEI as a result of any such violation 09 29 2010 Page 137 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 4 License Fees and Term Fees for use of and the term of license of the Model are on a periodic subscription basis The fees payable under this Agreement have been set forth in a separate written faxed or emailed communication between CEI and Licensee usually by Invoice 5 Warranty CEI makes no warranties or representations with respect to the accuracy use or application of the Model nor any technical assistance provided by CEI to Licensee or Authorized Users except that CEI will make reasonable efforts to correct defects in the Model after they are identified and will promptly provide Licensee with updates containing such corrections as CEI deems appropriate when they are available These reasonable efforts to correct defects in the Model do not apply to Derivative
143. lows you to customize the behavior of inputs or to introduce new categories of inputs into the model The results calculated from these annual entries will either override or will be added to amounts calculated from Inputs to Table 1 Global Inputs e Data Conversion Sheet The year can be divided into up to twenty four periods of your own design in this sheet The resulting calculations can then be automatically referenced by formulas in the Annual Inputs Sheet producing a proforma that fully evaluates your multi period inputs This sheet is not active unless you direct the model to use it by referencing this sheet using the Populate option on the UTILITIES menu The application of the Data Conversion Sheet is described in further detail on Page 47 The ability to input either life of project annual or block period inputs provides you with a great deal of flexibility for modeling and for custom modeling of a project Examples where annual or multi period inputs might prove to be useful include modeling of e Forward price curves for fuel EP Only and energy e Plant performance degradation and recovery after maintenance including saw tooth curve shaped degradation in Plant Capacity or Heat Rate e Customized debt including o Floating Interest Rates on Debt o Accelerated or Deferred Principal Payments Sweeps tied to the Debt Coverage Ratio o Interest only payments o Lump sum principal repayments e Modeling of a specific contracts
144. lysis For Table 1C Annual Inputs e SAVE copies of the Active Annual Input Table to either of two Holding Bins Labeled Holding Bin 3 and Holding Bin 4 This option allows you to save two different copies of input tables and then to make modifications to the respective input sheets without losing the saved sets of inputs When you SAVE the contents to the Holding Bin the current contents of the Holding Bin are overwritten e RESTORE copies of Annual Input Tables that have been previously saved to either of two Holding Bins Labeled Holding Bin 3 and Holding Bin 4 This option allows you to recover the copies of input tables that have been previously saved When you RESTORE the contents from a Holding Bin the current contents of the Active Inputs Sheet are overwritten e EXCHANGE a copy of the Active Annual Input Table with copies that have been previously saved in either of the two Holding Bins Labeled Holding Bin 3 and Holding Bin 4 This option allows you to flip the copies of input tables that have been previously saved with the active Table 1 Global Inputs Sheet When you EXCHANGE the contents with a Holding Bin the current contents of the Active Annual Inputs Sheet are saved in the Holding Bin and the current contents of the Holding Bin are written to the Active Annual Input Sheet Neither is lost 09 29 2010 Page 42 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 e CLEAR the Annual Inputs This option clears the Annual Inputs Sheet of
145. mised Annual Number of Shares Without Project 300 300 300 300 300 300 Calculated Annual Number of Shares Outstanding With Project 300 305 305 305 305 305 Total Available on Market without Project Millions 0 3 Data Conversion Sheet For Information on the using the Data Conversion Sheet See Page 47 09 29 2010 Page 123 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 E Saving EconExpert Spreadsheets 1 Saving Fully Functional Copies of the Model During the term of your license you may save and reuse installed copies of fully functioning EconExpert Models as you would save any other Excel Spreadsheet To do so simply use the Excel Save or Save As selections on the Excel Command Menu The Spreadsheets you save will only work on computers that have authorized installations of EconExpert If a saved copy of EconExpert is provided to other parties who do not have a valid license they will be prompted to contact CEI to obtain License Codes to enable the model By entering these codes the models you send them can be fully enabled and users who receive and license EconExpert from files shared by others will experience the same full functionality of the model as you will Without the appropriate codes transferred copies of the model will not function properly unless they are converted to a Values Only using the EconExpert Command Menu Values Only copies will function on any computer but are limited to providing the result
146. mmand Menu that will generate printed copies of reports which contain only the values generated by a specific case and contain no formulas capable of analyzing other cases with the Model Users may share with third parties such printed Values Only copies of the Model that have been generated using macros that are accessed by the Model s Command Menu No other form of printed copies may be shared with third parties who do not have a current and valid license to the Model All such printed copies shall include the EconExpert trademark and copyright notices as provided by CEI in the Model and on all reports generated using the Model 09 29 2010 Page 138 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 10 Limitation of Liability In no event shall Competitive Energy Insight Inc its owners employees affiliates representatives or assigns be liable for indirect incidental consequential special or punitive damages or for loss of profits or sales in connection with the use of the Model In addition CEI s total aggregate liability to Licensee under this Agreement shall not exceed the amount of the current annual subscription fee for one user that was most recently paid by Licensee This limitation of liability shall apply to all claims made by Licensee or its affiliates without regard to which other provisions of this Agreement have been breached or have proved to be ineffective 11 Copyright Notice The Model and accompanying documentation
147. mples on how to use the various Global Inputs A variety of Cell Help Comments also appear with each input in Table 1 PLEASE NOTE Cost entries are input to Table 1C in CURRENT This means that the cost and revenue entries to Table 1C will not be impacted by escalation rates entered elsewhere in the model and fixed values will not be impacted by partial year operation The values will be used by the model as entered Most of the inputs included in Table 1C are self explanatory and all are accompanied by Help Comments that describe the purpose and function of that input Several of the specific inputs to Table 1C provide unique functionality and are individually described below 09 29 2010 Page 113 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 a Escalation You can vary the annual GNP escalation rate by entering non zero values into this section In the example provided the GNP Escalation Rate of 2 5 entered in Table 1 will be overridden in years 1 2 and 3 by the amounts 3 0 3 5 and 4 0 respectively In succeeding years inflation will default back to the Global Inputs rate of 2 5 if no entries are provided for those years Figure 59 Table 1C Annual Inputs GNP Escalation Rate Annual Inputs Red Text Indicates Annual Inputs Used March 22 2003 Yr of Operation Far 1 2 3 4 Description 2006 2007 2008 2009 Months of Operation During Year Holding Bin 3 is not labled 12 12 12
148. n and debt equity schedules Interest accrued during construction IDC is calculated in this sheet based on a standard S Curve drawdown schedule Soft costs are also allocated over the specified construction term Table 4 Operating Costs This sheet provides breakdowns of operating cost factors including consumption rates of fuel and raw materials escalation indices and calculation of annual fixed and variable O amp M expenses Table 5 Debt Service This sheet provides for up two Tranches of debt and resulting computations of debt service requirements Debt terms can be customized to include interest only payments accelerated or deferred principal repayments and variable interest rates Additional tranches can be specified in the free form tables Detailed calculations of principal and interest payments on primary and subordinated debt are provided Debt Terms entered in Tables 1 and 1C are reported and resulting annual debt service requirements are calculated and displayed Debt Coverage Ratios are also reported Table 6 Revenues This sheet provides calculations associated with energy capacity and by product sales Annual energy sales are reported for each of the specified Summer Winter On Peak Off Peak periods Associated escalation factors are also displayed and the resulting escalated annual revenues are reported in 1000 based on the Owner s percentage interest in the project Table 7 Cash Flow Leveraged This sheet provides calc
149. nExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Features of the EconExpert Model EconExpert is equipped with a variety of specialized features to expand its functionality and to make it easy to use Those features are fully described under the EconExpert Help option in the command menu and in the descriptions that follow Note that individual cells in the EconExpert Model also include detailed help comments that describe the purpose of the subject cell or table The Help Comment feature can be enabled or disabled from the EconExpert Command Menu as described later A The EconExpert On Line Tutorial EconExpert includes an On Line Tutorial that will guide you through the important features of the model After accepting the terms of the EconExpert License Agreement you will be asked if you would like to view the Tutorial The Tutorial may also be viewed at any time by selecting the Tutorial Option from the EconExpert Help Menu It is highly recommended that new users review the tutorial and the examples in the Appendix to this User s Manual If you select to view the Tutorial it will be initiated with the window Figure 15 First Window in the EconExpert Tutorial EconE xpert Tutorial About EconE xpert Thank you for choosing EconE pert the first Universal Financial Proforma for the Power Generation Industry and the Industries that support it EconExpert is a sophisticated and highly flexible spreadsheet developed in Microsoft Excel to be
150. nado Diagrams Tornado Diagrams illustrate how the NPV or IRR of the current case will be impacted by individually incrementing multiple inputs Each of the respective Tornado Diagrams is generated by varying the inputs for the life of the project based on inputs to either Table 1 or Table 1C Individual Sensitivity Cases The remaining options allow you to selectively run individual Sensitivities listed above The individual Sensitivity Tables and Graphs can be viewed from the Navigate menu or printed from the PRINT Menu 09 29 2010 Page 31 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 o Run All Sensitivity Cases You can run all of the programmed sensitivities in a single batch updating all of the corresponding graphs and printing them if desired This selection will take some time to execute if selected The complete model will be calculated almost 250 times to develop all of the desired cases It is highly recommended that you run all of the Sensitivity Cases prior to creating a Values Only copy of the model to ensure that all of the Sensitivities are updated to match the current Values Only case You can specify the term in years of the IRR and NPV Analyses that are used in the Sensitivities by entering the desired number of years in the third column of the NPV and IRR Summary Tables at the top of Table 1 The location of the entry is identified by the red bold faced title IRR TERM FOR SENSITIVITY STUDIES as shown in Figure 2
151. nalyses in one batch Depending on the speed of your computer running all of the Sensitivity Cases as a batch should take between 1 and 3 minutes Important Notes regarding Sensitivities e Sensitivity analyses are performed for a specific case in the model showing upside and downside variations relative to the current case If Inputs to Table 1 or Table 1C are changed the current sensitivity cases may need to be updated to reflect the new case e The formatting of Charts or Graphs in Excel may require adjustments as the values that are charted are changed You may also want to customize a Chart To modify or customize a Chart created by EconExpert first Disable Range Protection using the UTILITIES Menu Then click on the appropriate Chart to view edit the Excel Chart Options After finishing it is recommended that you re enable the Range Protection For help on formatting Excel Charts use Microsoft Excel Help and search for CHARTS 09 29 2010 Page 131 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 G Tornado Diagrams The SENSITIVITIES Menu also provides you with options to generate Tornado Diagrams While the individual Sensitivities on this menu allow you to selectively study effects of changes individual inputs Tornado Diagrams illustrate how the NPV or IRR of the current case will be impacted by individually incrementing multiple inputs Each of the respective Tornado Diagrams are generated by varying the inputs for the life o
152. nancial closing If not selected the NPV is calculated to the Base Year Note that if the XIRR XNPV switch at the Top of Table 1 Global Inputs is selected the NPV is calculated to mid year otherwise it is calculated to the end of year using the XIRR XNPV function Carry Forward Tax Losses If this checkbox is selected tax loss write offs will be carried forward and applied during future years when positive pre tax earnings occur If not selected tax losses will be credited in the year that they occur resulting in a tax credit that would be applied to other sources of income not modeled in the analysis Issue Shares for Project Equity If this checkbox is selected and you have entered projections for the pricing and number of shares of Owner s Stock that are outstanding the model will issue additional shares to cover the Owner s Equity in the project This will result in a dilution of earnings share If the button is not selected it is assumed that the Owner will provide cash in place of equity g Computations of Owner s Stock Price Performance EconExpert includes analysis of predicted impacts of net income from the project on the price of the Owner s stock These calculations are performed based on an assumed Table 1 Inputs of baseline without the project stock price baseline projected corporate earnings profile and baseline number of shares outstanding If the checkbox see previous section to issue shares for project equity is sel
153. ncing and Permanent Financing In this section of Table 1 the user can specify debt terms as follows Construction Financing The user can specify the interest rate applied during the term of the construction loan Interest During Construction is calculated in Table 3 using either the Default or User Defined Drawdown and Debt Equity Schedules Permanent Financing Senior Debt and Subordinated Debt The user can specify the mortgage type loan parameters including o The Term of the loan o The fixed interest rate o The number of years the Interest Only payments are made during the initial term of the loan o The annual Financing Fees The user may also enter Terms for Senior Debt and Subordinated Debt in the Annual Inputs Table where options are provided to override the Annual interest rate Interest only payments Accelerated principal repayment schedules as a percentage of the initial debt balance or in 1000 year For the purposes of calculating debt coverage ratios the coverage ratio for Senior Debt is calculated assuming funds available to cover debt including all expenses and Subordinated Debt Costs Figure 52 Table 1 Global Inputs Financing Terms Construction Financing 1000 Owners Const Term 24 Months Total Project 10096 Share Percent Equity 0 096 During Construction Interest Rate on Construction Financing 8 0 Loan Commitment
154. ncluding on site generation applications renewable energy projects and large multi hundred million dollar central power station investments For more information on CEI please visit hitp www CEInsight com where you can view flash demos of our software CEI also provides a thorough project economic feasibility analysis for a fixed price usually in the range of 4 000 6 000 depending on the scope Please contact us to learn more about this high value added analysis CEI s financial analysis suite includes the following TM EconExpert Nuclear for wholesale Nuclear Based Electric Power TM EconExpert Partnerships and Leases for evaluation of Tax Equity Partnerships and certain Leasing Structures based on projects analyzed in your own in house custom models or with any of the EconExpert Project Financial Models described below TM EconExpert WIND for Wind Farm projects that sell wholesale energy TM EconExpert EP for wholesale Electric Power including solar thermal biofuel landfill gas fossil and other thermal based electric power projects EconExpert PV for wholesale large solar Photovoltaic projects TM TM TM EconExpert DG EconExpert DG for PV or Wind and EconExpert DG for Solar Thermal are for Distributed Generation Behind the Meter applications utility tariff analysis and energy savings applications TM EconExpert CP for Commodity Products including ethanol biodiesel synthetic natural gas refinin
155. ne 500 clients to evaluate opportunities for development or acquisition of power generation projects Now EconExpert has been transformed into a Universal tool that can be used efficiently and effectively by project developers utilities equipment suppliers consultants banks and others in the industry to evaluate study make informed decisions on structure contracts and track the economics of power generation investments EconExpert is complemented by its sister software EconExpert DG for Inside the Fence Cogeneration and Distributed Generation Investments For more information on either model please contact CEI or visit our website at www CElnsight com The beauty of EconExpert is its flexibility The key to the model is its architecture which allows you to study any project through the model s input sheets specify the conditions of ownership procurement construction financing fuel supply operation and electricity sales etc of virtually any power generation project and then to quickly study how the economic viability of that project might be impacted by changes in market conditions Built in menus automated functions sensitivities tornado diagrams graphics and on line help features will further assist you in evaluating opportunities and producing reports that clearly and accurately support the conclusions you reach This User s Manual has been developed to assist you in getting started using EconExpert and to provide supporting d
156. ng and duly executed by both parties 14 Survival In the event of termination or expiration of this Agreement the obligations of Sections 3 Termination 5 Warranty 10 Limitation of Liability 11 Copyright Notice 12 Jurisdiction 15 Indemnification and 16 Attorneys Fees shall survive such termination or expiration 15 Indemnification Licensee shall indemnify defend and hold CEI harmless from any and all third party claims demands suits and actions alleging injury to persons damage to property or other loss or liability resulting from Licensee s use of the Model 16 Attorneys Fees The prevailing party in any dispute mediation arbitration or litigation concerning this Agreement shall be entitled to receive from the other party its attorneys fees and costs incurred in connection therewith 17 Successors and Assigns Subject to the prohibition on Licensee s assignment this Agreement and all of the provisions hereof shall be binding upon and inure to the benefit of the parties hereto and their respective successors and permitted assigns 18 Consult Licensed Council CEI is neither a licensed legal firm a certified public accounting firm nor a licensed securities broker dealer CEI advises all clients to consult licensed legal tax and financing council in all matters where such council is appropriate or required By clicking on the button provided on the bottom of the License Sheet in
157. nnual Periods 1 and Period 2 Delivered with Transportation Major Maintenance Expenses e The sum of Capitalized and Expensed Major Maintenance e Individually Capitalized Major Maintenance e Individually Expensed Major Maintenance 09 29 2010 Page 127 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 o Revenue Sources e All Revenues including Energy Sales Other By Product Sales Other Energy Sales e Capacity Ancillary Services Payments e Each of the five User Defined Revenue Sources Input to Table 1C e Steam Sales o Plant Operations e Net Plant Heat Rate e Annual Plant Capacity Factor o Property Taxes and Insurance e Property Taxes e Insurance o Variable O amp M Expenses e All Variable O amp M Including Purchased Power Purchased Steam Annual Emissions Allowances User Defined Category 1 User Defined Category 2 Ammonia Use of NOx Removal Solid Waste Disposal Sorbent Use for SO2 Removal The SENSITIVITIES Menu provides you with the ability to run these sensitivity cases either individually or as a group and to report how the project s Internal Rate of Return IRR will be impacted by variations in these parameters You can specify the term in years of the IRR Analysis that is used in the Sensitivities by entering the desired number of years in the third column of the IRR Summary Table at the top of Table 1 The location of the entry is identified by the red bold faced tile IRR TERM FOR SENSITIVITY STUDIES 09 29 20
158. nses incl Deposits to MM Reserves 7 751 3 13 J a 1 3 306 Total Working Capital Balance in Major Maintenance Reserve Account LLS You May Use the Outlined Section Below for Calcul i i i i 1 Aser Cp e nca e A amp Eco e pete sisi qe 2 Mice Sau FARSOODA 217Pm UFI ha Sl OILY 1i ager JI EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 7 EconExpert On Line HELP EconExpert has three useful On Line Help Features The EconExpert Help Menu Comments posted in individual cells throughout the model providing descriptions of the functions of individual inputs and overviews of tables provided in the model The EconExpert Tutorial These On Line Help Features are also complemented by this User s Manual and by Example Case runs that are discussed in the Appendix to the User s Manual a The EconExpert Help Menu EconExpert is equipped with a Customized Help Menu to assist you in using the model The menu provides other instructions and helpful hints on using the model technical definitions and access to special features of the model Items on the EconExpert Help Menu include Tutorial Access to the EconExpert On Line Tutorial The Tutorial will walk you through the model and all of its important features Input Tables 1 and 1C Descriptions of the functions of Table 1 Global Inputs and Table 1C Annual Inputs Worksheet Tabs Descriptions of the purpose and functions of each
159. nstruction phase are calculated based on the Drawdown Schedule with Interest During Construction calculated based on the resulting debt The Interest Rate on Construction Term Debt is discussed on page 105 Equity During Operations The is the percentage of the Total Investment Cost including Soft Costs and Interest During Construction that is funded with Equity when the Permanent Debt is initiated The remaining amount will be allocated to Primary and Subordinated Debt The terms specified for Primary and Subordinated Debt are discussed on page 105 Owner s Interest in the Project This input to Table 1 is designed to allow evaluation of a project from the perspective of an Owner who might have less than 100 ownership interest in a project Results presented in the Operating Cost Revenue Debt Service and Financial Statements are prorated based on the Owner s percentage Interest in the project showing the net impacts from that Owner s perspective Calculations of the impacts on the Owner s Stock Price are based on dilution of shares and the Owner s share of Net Income If the project has a single owner this input should be set at 10046 09 29 2010 Page 87 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Tables that reflect the Owner s Interest in the Project including the following Table 2 Summary Table 3 Construction Table 4A Operating Costs in 1000 Table 5A Debt Service in 1000 Table 6A Revenues in 1000
160. nual Copyright 2001 2010 ii Feature 2 You can compare ALL OF THE SHEETS quantifying the magnitude of the delta changes between two cases This Macro works only with IDENTICAL VERSIONS of EconExpert This procedure allows you to Compare and Quantify Differences between two different EconExpert Models You can also Compare and Quantify Differences between an active input sheet and a holding bin in the same model by saving the current model as two different file names with the desired cases to be compared each respectively activated in one of the files A new worksheet is created with copies of all of the tables in the model Every cell in the model inputs or calculations that has changed is identified by highlighting with an ORANGE BACKGROUND and the amount of the difference between the two cases either positive or negative is quantified PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS A MEMORY RAM INTENSIVE PROCEDURE IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU CLOSE OTHER APPLICATIONS AND SPREADSHEETS BEFORE IT IS INITIATED The procedure will involve four spreadsheets e The TARGET EconExpert is the model that you want to identify the changes in The TARGET model MUST be opened FIRST e The REFERENCE EconExpert Model is the model that you want compare changes against o The REFERENCE model MUST be opened SECOND o Record the filename of the REFERENCE Model as you will need to enter this information e The COMPARISION file which you will name will highli
161. nual Inputs Used IRR End of Year AND TORNADO DIAGRAMS to FCY EOY ne a 2003 1000 DA Si IRR Summary Years 10 15 20 NPV Summary Years 10 15 29 Leverage 4 51 5 03 9 33 Leveraged 12 0 90 415 61 706 30 Unleverage 0 87 6 11 8 34 Unleveraged 10 0 143 867 86 377 31 Proforma NOTES Inputs examples and descriptions provided by CEI in the Model are provided for example purposes only CEI makes no 32 representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy of such inputs examples or descriptions Ii SS e 35 Plant Capacity Heat Rate amp Fuel Type Energy and Fuel Pricing Profiles Period 14 Period 1B 36 Rated Net Plant Capacity MW 500 MW f Period 1A Period 1B 37 Net Heat Rate Electricity Onl 7 000 Btulkwh HHY Basis 36 of Annual MVVH Produced 22 0 l 11 0 ig 38 s x Real 39 Fuel Selection Enter 1 for Coal Coke Wood or Oil Enter 2 for Gas Period 1AB 2AB Energy Prices SAMAH l Escalation SAMAH Esce 40 l 2 GAS Energy Sales AMAH 44 00 0 0 28 00 4 Less TransmissionVheeling MvvH 0 0 42 Economic Factors Net Energy Price to Customer SAMAH 44 00 0 096 28 00 1 43 Base Year Constant Dollar in Mid Year 2003 Js T m Period 1 2 Fuel Prices es Period 1AB 33 45 GNP Escalation Rate for Revs amp Exps 96 2 50 amp Gas FOB Supplier 3 00 SMMBtu 46 Discount Rate for Leveraged NPV 12 00 to FCY EOY 20038 Transportation 1 S MMBtu 47 Di
162. o Medium To do this from the Excel Menu to select Tools Macro Security and from the Security Level Tab to set the Security to MEDIUM Excel 2007 Vista Prior to opening the model from Excel select the Office Button on the top left of your screen Then click on the button on the bottom right of the dialogue box Excel Options This will bring up the options dialogue box Select the third checkbox Show Developer tab in the Ribbon and click OK EconExpert Menus in Excel 2007 will appear in the Add Ins Ribbon If your security level setting is set to Medium as discussed above Microsoft Excel will now provide you with a warning which is similar to Figure 6 Microsoft Excel Enable Macros Screen Microsoft Excel i x C Econ Expert Financial Model v2 0 XLS contains macros Macros may contain viruses It is macros are legitimate you might lo Disable Macros i Enable Macros More Info ays safe to disable macros but if the some functionality Select Enable Macros Whenever you open EconExpert you MUST select the Enable Macros option to properly initialize the EconExpert model If this option is not selected the model will not function properly 09 29 2010 Page 18 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Step 3 The installation of EconExpert will proceed EconExpert will now follow with the screens Figure 7 EconExpert Successful Installation Notice EconExpert I
163. ocumentation in the event that questions might arise as you use it The User s Manual is complemented by On Line Help and an On Line Tutorial that can be accessed directly from the EconExpert Model and by useful examples of using the model which are provided in the Appendix Microsoft Excel is a registered trademark of the Microsoft Corporation 09 29 2010 Page 11 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Founded in 1997 Competitive Energy Insight provides business and project development support to the Power Generation Industry with the following areas of expertise e Financial Modeling Software and Product Modeling Utilities Including O OOo000 O o O O o O O EconExpert EP Financial Model for Thermal Electric Power Plants EconExpert PV Financial Model for Photo Voltaic Projects EconExpert DG Financial Model Distributed Generation and Behind the Meter Projects EconExpert WIND Financial Model for Wind Projects EconExpert CP Financial Model for Commodity Product applications like Ethanol Biodiesel and other Biofuels EconExpert IAT Interval Analysis Tool for time of production analysis for Combined Heat and Power Applications EconExpert IAT PV for time of production analysis for Photovoltaic Applications EconExpert IAT WIND for time of production analysis for Wind Applications EconExpert Energy Shape for modeling load profiles for commercial buildings like hospitals schools office buildings etc EconExper
164. odel the formatting of graphs can change in ways that may not be desirable For example the graph area may be reduced resulting in a lot of empty space in the graph frame or the legend may be displaced and cover the x axis title This is an acknowledged bug in Microsoft Excel If the formatting of the graph is disrupted it can be easily corrected by first turning OFF the range protection and then simply clicking on the graph to make the desired changes After completing the corrections it is recommended that you turn the protection back ON For Help on formatting graphs in Excel see the Excel Help Menu and perform a search for Charts Please note that when a graph is selected the EconExpert Command Menu will disappear The Menu will reappear when the selected graph is closed The graph can be closed by clicking on any cell in the model f Change the Name of the Company that Appears in EconExpert Reports You can temporarily change the name of the company that will appear in the reports that are generated from the EconExpert menu When you reinitialize the model the name will be reset to the default value that the model is registered to g Show Hide Comments You can turn on or off the Help comments that are provided throughout the model The Help comments are described in more detail in the next section h Create Values Only Spreadsheet From the UTILITIES MENU or from the EconExpert Help Menu you can create a Values Only
165. of the 26 Worksheets included in EconExpert Command Menus Descriptions of the purpose and functions of each of the options provided on the EconExpert Command Menu Help Comments in Worksheet Cells A discussion of how to use Help Comments provided in worksheet cells and how to enable or disable the Cell Comments feature Customizing the Proforma Helpful suggestions on how you can customize EconExpert to perform project specific analyses Definitions and Explanations Helpful definitions of much of the terminology used Saving EconExpert to Disk Discussion how to save and reuse Fully Functional and Values Only copies of EconExpert About EconExpert Extending My License Important information regarding the EconExpert copyright how to contact CEI and how to enable or extend a license to the model b Help Comments Individual input cells and tables throughout the EconExpert Model include Comments that provide helpful information about the purpose and function of the respective input cell or results table Cell Comments can be turned ON or turned OFF from the EconExpert UTILITIES Menu If the Cell Comments feature is turned ON a Red Triangle comment indicator will appear in the upper right corner of the affected cells in the model The corresponding Help Comment will appear as you move the cursor near to or over the Red Triangle This Help Comments feature can be DISABLED by selecting 09 29 2010 Page 58 EconExpert Us
166. om the Wizard EconExpert PV Inputs Wizard Section1 Project Description Notes and IRR NP Summaries Section2 PV Facility Capacity Economic Factors and Debt Equity Section3 Project Schedule Capacity Factors and Switches Section 4 Period Energy Pricing and Other Revenues Section 5 Variable O amp M Fixed O amp M Property Taxes and Insurance Section6 Income Taxes Tax Credits and Salvage Yalue and Capital Gains Section 7 1 Phase 1 Development Costs Section 7 2 Phase 2 Equipment and Installation Costs Section 7 3 Soft Costs Section 8 1 Construction Financing Section 8 2 Permanent Financing and Leases Section9 Depreciation ou Close wizard Copyright 2004 2010 CEI Inc All Rights Reserved a Save Exchange or Reset Inputs This is a valuable feature in EconExpert It allows you to store the input sheets to Holding Bins and then to later recall those input sheets Using this feature you can run multiple scenarios in the same spreadsheet The menu also allows you to load the default gas or coal cases that are documented in the Appendix to this User s Manual You can also reset clear the Global or Annual 09 29 2010 Page 40 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Inputs Sheets and the Custom Construction Drawdown Schedule Options under Save or Reset Inputs include e Display Contents of Holding Bins This option allows you to view the contents of the va
167. ompany you work for Cancel Company Name will appear on all printed reports generated by the model Next you will then see the following greeting acknowledging successful extension of the license Figure 5 EconExpert Greeting Screen EconExpert PV V14 9025 4 Copyright 2001 2010 CEI Inc All Rights Reserved Welcome Steve Provol of Competitive Energy Insight Inc This is EconExpert PV Solar Photovoltaics version 14 9025 4 The current Date is 09 29 2010 Your License is valid until 09 24 2011 When you use this model you are bound by the terms of the Software License Agreement Copyright Notice EconExpert PV is protected by copyright law and international treaties Unauthorized use modification reverse engineering reproduction or distribution of EconExpert PV or any portion of it may result in severe civil and criminal penalties and will be prosecuted to the maximum extent possible under the law Remember to save your work frequently and to ALWAYS CAREFULLY CHECK the results produced by the model Select OK and EconExpert will initialize and be ready for use Other previously saved copies of EconExpert should perform normally during the new license term 09 29 2010 Page 15 III EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 System Requirements EconExpert is a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet that has been complemented with sophisticated Visual Basic macros to add flexibility ease of use and functionality While
168. or agreements for o Fuel Supply Agreements FSA o Power Purchase Agreements PPA o Long Term Services Agreements LTSA e Modeling of specific plant outages or capital improvement projects e Step changes or single year events e Ete A wide range of project specific conditions can be easily and accurately modeled using this powerful combination of Global and Annual data inputs Descriptions and functions of the individual Global and Annual Inputs are provided in Help Comments included with each input cell Additional discussion of the individual inputs to Tables 1 and 1C are provided later in this section The Example Cases in the Appendix also provide examples of using Global and Annual Inputs 09 29 2010 Page 81 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 1 Table 1 Global Inputs Table 1 is the only mandatory input sheet in the model and is where Global Inputs are entered Global Inputs are premises that typically apply over the life of the project or input values that are escalated at a constant rate over the life of the project Examples of Global Inputs include a complete check list of the typical factors modeled in a power project A screen shot of Table 1 is provided below Figure 32 Screen Shot of Table 1 Global Inputs cel NO EconExpert PV Proforma V14 9025 4 2010 NO xls ze 2 2l 4 505 x Data Window Help AdobePDF ENABLE PY MODEL NAVIGATE PRINT SENSITIVITIES UTILITIES EconExpert HELP Pa Reply with Ch
169. orma Debt Service T Principal Payments on Senior Primary Debt 96 of Initial Principal 0 Principal Payments on Subordinate Debt 96 of Initial Principal 0 i Accelerated Principal Payments on Senior Primary Debt 1000 9999999 5 000 Accelerated Principal Payments on Subordinated Debt 1000 9999999 3 000 Senior Primary Debt Interest Rate 9999999 8 0 8 0 7 5 7 5 7 0 Subordinate Debt Interest Rate Senior Primary Debt Interest Only Enter 1 in Applicable Yrs Yes Sub Debt Interest Only Enter 1 in Applicable Yrs Yes 09 29 2010 Page 121 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 j Property Taxes Insurance Income Taxes and After Tax Dividends Annual Property Taxes Annual Insurance expenses and adjustments to Income taxes can be input as an amount in 1000 year As with other entries to Table 1C costs are expressed in Current and are not escalated If entered they will override corresponding inputs to Table 1 Figure 68 Table 1C Annual Inputs Property Taxes Insurance and Income Taxes Property Taxes Insurance Income Taxes and After Tax Dividends Property Taxes 1000 Insurance 1000 Annual Depreciation for State Income Tax Purposes 1000 Annual Depreciation for Federal Income Tax Purposes 1000 Additional Tax Deductions Applied to State and Federal Taxes 1000 Federal Income Tax Rate State Income Tax Rate Additional Federal Taxes or Tax Credits as Negative Entry 10
170. pecified in this section will take precedence over Interest Only Payments if such both options are selected in the same year If payments are not entered in all years the selected mortgage type repayment schedule specified in Table 1 will be used in the remaining years until the entire principal balance is paid or until the end of the debt term Any residual principal will be repaid as a balloon payment in the last year of the debt term Interest Rates The user can input the Annual effective interest rate during any year in the life of the subject loan This section can be used to model variable rate loans or those linked to indices Amounts entered here will override the standard mortgage style fixed interest rates entered in Table 1 Interest Only Payments The user can specify Interest Only Payments in any year during the life of the loan by entering a 1 in the year that the Interest Only Payments would apply Note that Principal Repayments specified above will take precedence over Interest Only Payments if both options are selected in the same year Figure 67 Table 1C Annual Inputs Debt Service Annual Inputs Red Text Indicate Yr of Operation bar 1 2 March 22 2003 3 4 5 Description 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Months of Operation During Year Holding Bin 3 is not labled 12 12 12 12 12 Shaded Cells Indicate Inputs Holding Bin 4 is not labled All Annual Inputs expressed at values are entered in Current Prof
171. pened SECOND and must have at least 2 available windows EconExpert Default The two files MUST have different names Input Data will be transferred as VALUES so any formulas used for data input will be lost and must be manually re entered after the transfer The transfer may take a few minutes Do NOT attempt to interrupt the transfer once it has started Are the appropriate files opened and do you want to continue Enter Y es to Continue with Import No to Stop to first open Source Data File with macros DIS amp BLED This is the complete set of instructions for data transfer Important points include e Open the Destination Model first The destination model is the new version of EconExpert that you would like to import data to e Open the Source Model second This is the version of EconExpert that contains the input data that you would like to transfer from To initiate the transfer select yes and all input data and any tables or sheets you have added to the source model will be transferred to the new model 09 29 2010 Page 51 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 k Comparing EconExpert Files and Identify Quantify Differences Between Cases EconExpert offers two very powerful options for comparing different cases and quickly understanding the changes and differences between those cases Either of these features can be accessed from the UTILITIES Menu by selecting UTILITIES Compare EconExpert Files to
172. pert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 2 Creating a Values Only Copy of the EconExpert Model From the UTILITIES MENU or EconExpert Help Menu you can create a Values Only copy of the current EconExpert Model to archive or for sharing with others who may not be licensed to use EconExpert The Values Only copy that this module creates will work on any computer but will have limited functionality No special license codes will be required to view the Values Only copy on any PC but the Values Only model will not be capable of performing any new calculations Since the Sensitivity Cases included with a Values Only Copy cannot be updated after the model is converted you will be offered the option to run all of the Sensitivity Cases and Tornado Diagrams prior to the conversion If you decline this option the Tables on the Sensitivity Sheet Tornado Diagrams and Sensitivity Graphs will be deleted to ensure that the Values Only copy does not contain Sensitivity Cases that are inconsistent with the case provided Depending on the speed of your computer running all of the Sensitivity Cases as a batch should take between 1 and 3 minutes Prior to executing a Values Only conversion you will be prompted with a number of Warnings advising you to save the results before making the conversion and to save the Values Only file to a new name These Warnings are to ensure that you don t accidentally overwrite yo
173. pitalized Major Maintenance Expenses are depreciated over the term of their useful life EconExpert offers the user several approaches for entering Annual Capitalized Major Maintenance Expenses The approaches included in Table 1C are Periodic Major Maintenance Expenses Annual Deposits to Major Maintenance Reserves computed based on Equivalent Operating Hours of Plant Service 09 29 2010 Page 119 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Often times costs under a Long Term Service Agreement or predictions of Major Maintenance Expenses can be calculated based on the actual hours and severity of service experienced by the equipment For example a unit that undergoes multiple start ups during the year is typically subjected to more severe service than a unit that is base loaded Major Maintenance costs in such a situation can be estimated based on the sum of the actual operating hours and a computed Annual Operating Hour Factor that is related to the severity of service The resulting sum is the Equivalent Operating Hours EOH of service on the unit The resulting Major Maintenance Expense can then be estimated using a cost factor expressed annually in EOH These EOH costs are expressed in Current and are not escalated The hr cost factor entries and the Additional EOH Entries will override corresponding entries to Table 1 Other Capitalized Major Maintenance Expenses The user is also provided with the option to enter other
174. puts Fuel Pricing se enirere eiras nren nennen rennen Figure 44 Table 1 Global Inputs Fuel Quality eese enne eren eren nre nennen Figure 45 Table 1 Global Inputs SO2 Remowval sees enne eren eren ren Figure 46 Table 1 Global Inputs NOx Reduction 000 cece ceeceseceseeesceeeseeeseeeseecaaecsaecsaecsaeceseeeaeeeaeeeaeeeaaecaaees Figure 47 Table 1 Global Inputs Other Revenues cece ceseceseceneceseceseeeeeeeseesseecaaecsaecaecsaecnaecnseeeseeeeeeeeaeees Figure 48 Table 1 Global Inputs Variable O amp M esee enne enr en rennen Figure 49 Table 1 Global Inputs Fixed O amp M eese nennen enren eren eren eren nennen enne Figure 50 Table 1 Global Inputs Major Maintenance eese rennen eren eren nnne nennen 09 29 2010 Page 8 sexes 24 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Figure 51 Table 1 Global Inputs Development Costs esses enne nre nennen nnn 102 Figure 52 Table 1 Global Inputs Engineering and Construction Phase Costs eee 103 Figure 53 Salvage Value at the End of the Project Life esses nennen 104 Figure 54 Table 1 Global Inputs Financing Terms eeseeseeeeeeeeeeeneeeene eene ene nren nre 105 Figure 55 Sources of Capital Summary in Table 1 oo eee ceecceseeeseeeseeeseeesaeeeaeecaaecaaecsaecsaecsaeceeeseaeeeaeeseneeeaes 106 Figure 56 Table 1 Glo
175. r ilAa OPGRA mmo P Arial 65 As B z u aEjm s E giE3SH O A 0 30 BE OPE SSAA l File Edit View Insert Format Tools Data Window Help Acrobat NAVIGATE PRINT SENSITIVITIES UTILITIES EconExpert HELP ENABLE MODEL 8 x ProjectSumm v fe MP c 9 B fa Internal Rate of Return EA Years 10 i 20 15 20 a 3 Leveraged 7 40 12 00 15 931 92 18 372 53 1 Unleveraged 4 75 10 00 73 750 52 6 154 35 ra 1 Project Structure Owner s Share 100 0 1000 Ownership 1000 1000 s i i Total Project Owner s Share At Financial Closing 1 00x Total Project Owner s Share 100 0 435352 435 352 Equity 40 0 174 381 z 100 0 435 952 435 952 Senior Debt 42 0 183400 A n Subordinated Debt 18 0 78401 78 471 15 40 0 T4380 174381 Total 100 0 435952 435 952 1 60 0 261571 261571 2o 100 0 435952 435 952 at 22 Project Operating Parameters Year 1 Fuel 500 MW Fuel Type GAS 24 7 000 Btulkwh Fuel Quality Btu 1000 BtulSCF 2s Plant Capacity Factor 92 0 Year Ash 0 0 26 92 0 Year2 Sulfur 0 0 27 92 0 Year3 28 Project Schedule Project Schedule 30 Financial Closing Date January 1 2004 Construction Term 24 Months 31 Start of Operation January 1 2006 Project Life 20 Years 32 Retirement Date January 1 2026 33 34 Inv
176. r tax return on the Owner s investment The NPV Net Present Value is calculated at the specified Discount Rate A negative NPV does not necessarily indicate that a project is losing money but rather that the IRR achieved by the project is less than the discount rate specified for the NPV calculation An NPV of 0 means that the IRR and Discount Rate are equal NOTE The calculated unleveraged IRR may change slightly usually by less than 0 1 as a function of changes in project equity This can occur when you select the Factor option for calculating Property Taxes or Insurance costs which when carried through to the unleveraged analysis are tied to the cost basis which in turn has a small dependency on the amount of debt assumed This effect is very minor and will not be observed if either annual inputs or a fixed 1000 yr amount is entered for Property Taxes and Insurance costs Results in Table 8A are expressed based on the Owner s percentage interest in the project 18 Table 9 Sources and Uses Table 9 provides an analysis of the Sources of Funds and the Uses of Funds in 1000 during the construction period and during the operations phase of the project Sources and Uses of funds are balanced in each year A complementary Sources and Uses calculation during the operations phase is provided in Table 12 where results are expressed in MWH Results in Table 9 are expressed based on the Owner s percentage interest in the project
177. ral Gas PV Clean Coal IGCC EconExpert Nuclear Power Electric Power Retail Behind the Meter EconExper Small Solar PV or Wind qoem VES Combine Heat and Power Fuel Cells EconExpert EconExpert IAT for CHP DG for CHP Specialty and Commodity Products Ethanol Biodiesel EconExpert Bio Chemicals Hydrogen Sulfur CP All Refining Applications Electronic Databook DA At Portfolios Analysis Multiple Scenarios Models EconExpert Partnerships and EconExpert MAESTRO wall work with your own in house custom models or with any ofthe EconExpert Project Financial Models described above Most features of the EconExpert Partnerships and EconExpert MAESTRO will work with your own in house custom models or with any of the EconExpert Project Financial Models described above 09 29 2010 Page 141
178. red in Current Proforma Plant Performance s Rated Net Plant Capacity MW IE 9999999 500 485 480 415 Annual Capacity Factor Entries 1 0 Hourly Fuel Use MMBtu hr Precedent to Annual Heat Rate 0 Annual Fuel Use 1000 MMBtu yr Precedent to Hourly Use amp Heat Rate l 0 Net Heat Rate Electricity Only 9999999 6 800 6 850 6 875 6 900 09 29 2010 Page 114 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 c Energy Sales and Energy Pricing Profiles Table 1C allows you to specify annual Energy Sales Profiles and Annual Forward Energy Prices in one to four block periods The Energy Sales Profile is expressed as the percentage of annual net generation that is sold during each period Profile percentages are entered for Periods 1A 1B and 2A Period 2B is calculated by difference so that the total of all four categories is 100 The user can specify the names of these periods Using the profile and the pricing input for each period EconExpert will calculate annual sales during each period and the composite annual energy sales resulting from all four block periods The four energy pricing periods shown can be named in the corresponding section of Table 1 Global Inputs Non zero values entered in Table 1C in a given year will override the life of project inputs specified in Table 1 Energy prices are expressed in Current The amounts entered are treated as Current No further escalation is applied In the example provided the
179. revent the user from opening spreadsheets that contain macros If this Security Setting is set to HIGH then you will not be permitted to open EconExpert or any other spreadsheet with the Macros functioning Prior to opening EconExpert you may want to check this setting on your version of Excel To do so select Tools Macro Security from the Excel Command Menu On the Security Level Tab the setting selection should be MEDIUM or LOW 09 29 2010 Page 3 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Product Warranty and Warranty Limitations Users of EconExpert hereby indemnify Competitive Energy Insight Inc against any and all problems damages liabilities or claims or other violation that might arise in association with any use of the EconExpert Model by the Licensee Competitive Energy Insight Inc makes no warranties or representations with respect to the accuracy or fitness for purpose with respect to the use or application of the Model except that Competitive Energy Insight will make reasonable efforts to correct defects in the Model after they are identified and will promptly provide paid Licensees with updates containing such corrections when they are available These reasonable efforts to correct defects in the Model do not apply to Derivative Works developed by Users of the Model CEI assumes no responsibility for or obligation relative to the performance of or defects in Microsoft Excel EXCEPT FOR THE WARRANTIES AND REPRES
180. rious Holding Bins described below The Holding Bins are used to store copies of the respective Global Inputs Annual Inputs and Data Conversion Inputs Sheets Whenever you file a copy of an Input Sheet to a Holding Bin you will be prompted to name the sheet you are saving That name will appear in the description cell located at the top of each sheet and will appear in the window that is generated when you select this option An example of the window that EconExpert creates to inform you about the current contents of the Holding Bins is provided below Figure 22 Example Display of Current Contents of Holding Bins EconExpertContents of Active Sheets and Holding Bins 35 xi Active GLOBAL Inputs Sheet Proxy Natural Gas Fired Combined Cycle Holding Bin 1 Coal Fired Boiler Case 1 Holding Bin 2 Coal Fired Boiler Case 2 Active ANNUAL Inputs Sheet Forward Pricing Curves Base Case Holding Bin 3 Forward Pricing Curves Alternate Case 1 Holding Bin 4 Forward Pricing Curves Alternate Case 2 Active Data Conversion Inputs Sheet Base Case Plant Dispatch Scenario Data Conversion Holding Bin Optimistic Plant Dispatch Scenario 09 29 2010 Page 41 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 e CLEAR all of the Input Sheets Select this to start a completely new case e CLEAR all of the Yellow Free Form Tables Note that the contents of the Global and Annual Input Sheet Holding Bins are also displayed at the top of Table
181. rt is opened it is possible that the menu will appear when you reopen Excel even if EconExpert is not opened To delete the extraneous menu simply reopen and then close the model In Excel 2007 or 2010 the menu will appear under the Add Ins Ribbon The six options provided on the EconExpert Command Menu are NAVIGATE PRINT SENSITIVITIES UTILITIES ECONEXPERT HELP ENABLE MODEL The Command Menu appears at the top of the EconExpert screen as shown below The various options in the Command Menu are described following the Figure Figure 16 The EconExpert Command Menu File Edit view Insert Format Tools Data Window Help Acrobat NAVIGATE PRINT SENSITIVITIES UTILITIES EconExpert HELP ENABLE MODEL 8 X B E F G H Click Here to REFRESH Guesses Used for IRR Iteration Eco ri LP Menu 20 Select Checkbox to Use XIRR Ai XIRR Requires Analysis ToolPak Before Tax 5 00 22 LJ IRR Selected After Tax 5 005 23 24 Table 1 Section 1A GLOBAL INPUTS Global Inputs Holding Bin 1 is Not Labled FACERCEI ProformatVorking Proformati EconEzpert LP a5 Shaded Areas Indicate Inputs Hame of File Proforma 4 0 389 21s Table 1 Global Inputs Global Inputs Holding Bin 2 is Not Labled Description Example Frame F Combined Cycle Case 26 Active Annual Inputs Sheet is Not Labeled HPV 1 After Tex BR TERM OR SENSITIVITY STUDIES poenis SEH Ho An
182. s Property Taxes Insurance and Income Taxes eee 122 Figure 71 Table 1C Annual Inputs Owner s Stock Performance seeseeeeeeeeeeeeee eene enne 123 Figure 72 Figure Deleted usce ed e t aed tet dot Pee De bee EE RU epe S 125 Figure 73 The IRR Sensitivity Term Input to Table 1 eese nennen nennen nennen nennen 129 Figure 74 Sensitivity Tables Input of Sensitivity Increments eese rennen nennen 130 Figure 75 Graphs Produced from Sensitivity Analyses essere ennt nennen nennen 131 Figure 76 Inputting the Term of Sensitivity Analyses or Tornado Diagrams eee 132 Figure 77 Tornado Diagrams Data Input Sheet essere nennen eren 134 Figure 78 Example Tornado Di gram ean ease eg ee eater edle ed ER e ehe 135 09 29 2010 Page 9 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Page Intentionally Left Blank 09 29 2010 Page 10 D EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Introduction and Overview of the EconExpert Model Thank you for choosing EconExpert Version the first truly Universal Financial Proforma for Electric Power and Central Power Station Projects including Private Power Public Power and Investor Owned Utilities and the industries that support them This Version of the model is also applicable to Coal Gasification Facilities Landfill Gas Facilities Biomass and Biodiesel and incl
183. s follows o Top Section Basic Summary Leveraged Annual NPVs and IRRs Return on Equity Stock Performance Debt Coverage Ratios Other Revenues Unleveraged Annual NPVs and IRRs and Return on Equity o Bottom Section Expanded Summary 09 29 2010 Commodity Sales MWH 1000 Ib hr Spark Spreads Leveraged Cash Flow Summary Unleveraged Cash Flow Summary Consolidated Cash Flow Statement including Revenues Summary Expenses Summary Debt Service Summary Depreciation Income Taxes Net Cash Flow After Tax Page 71 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 10 Table 3 Construction Table 3 provides calculations of monthly and cumulative monthly construction expenditures based on a standard S Curve Drawdown schedule and the Debt Equity ratios specified in Table 1 Interest during construction and soft costs Start up mobilization spares working capital debt reserve and up front loan fees etc are also allocated over the construction term As an alternative to the Default S Curve Capital Cost Drawdown Schedule generated by EconExpert and to a constant Debt Equity schedule during the drawdown period you may input your own custom Capital Cost Drawdown and or Debt Equity Schedules by entering the percentage of Capital Costs that are expended monthly during the Construction Phase and the percentage of project costs covered by equity in each month It is important to note that non zero entries to this schedu
184. s for the individual case studied when the model was converted Please note that the copyright provisions of your license expressly prohibit you from providing your original Installation Copy of EconExpert to others Your name and license number are stamped on the model It is also important to note that when you perform a Save EconExpert will be temporarily disabled showing Div 0 results throughout the various tables The Input Sheet Titles will also disappear This is normal behavior that is caused by a Security Feature in EconExpert that is intended to prevent use of the model by unauthorized persons During your license period if you always select the Enable Macros option when you open EconExpert you will always be able to clear this Div 0 result by selecting ENABLE MODEL from the EconExpert Command Menu If Macros are NOT enabled you will not be able to remove the Div 0 result After saving the model to eliminate the Div 0s and re enable the model select ENABLE MODEL Enable Filename from the Command Menu If multiple copies of EconExpert are opened the menu will apply to the most recent version for which it was refreshed If you have multiple instances of the model opened the menu can be synchronized with the active version by selecting the Refresh Menu button that appears at the top of each sheet 09 29 2010 Page 124 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Figure 70 Figure Deleted 09 29 2010 Page 125 EconEx
185. scount Rate for Unleveraged NPV 96 10 00 Transportation 2 MMBtu 48 Interest Rate Earned on Escrowed Funds 1 75 Net Delivered Fuel Price 300 S MMBtu 49 50 Equity and Project Ownership Equity Debt Fuel Quality Selected Fuel GAS 51 During Construction 0 0 100 0 Higher Heating Value of Fuel 1 000 Btu sCF 52 During Operations 40 0 60 0 p s3 Ash in the Fuel by Weight 0 0 0 00 Ib Ash4 i Star Coe BE EconE wpe LP U fi EconE xpert LP U B EconExpert EconExpert LP P AS OB RD 4464M 09 29 2010 Page 27 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 1 NAVIGATE As an alternative to selecting from the worksheet tabs located on the bottom of the Excel Screen the NAVIGATE Menu provides you with another means for locating and viewing the specific inputs and various tables and charts in the EconExpert Model Options provided on this menu include e Global Inputs to Table 1 The Global Inputs Table is the only mandatory table in the model To locate specific input categories select from an alphabetical list of the Input Categories to Table 1 Global Inputs are inputs that typically apply over the life of the project or are entered as a single value and then escalated at a constant rate Details associated with Table 1 Global Inputs are further described on page 82 e Annual Inputs to Table 1C The Annual Inputs Table is an optional table used to refine the setup that you have developed us
186. ser These costs are broken into two main categories i Phase 1 Development Costs These costs are typically incurred prior to financial closing and are treated by EconExpert as a lump sum expense in the first month of the construction phase A number of default cost categories are provided as well as two optional User Defined Categories The user may also add contingency as a percentage of the Development Costs and as a fixed amount in 1000 the two entries will be summed if both are entered You can specify up to 15 categories of Phase 1 Development Costs Figure 49 Table 1 Global Inputs Development Costs v Investment Costs 1000 1000 Phase 1 Project Development Not Escalated Developers Costs 5 000 Developers Fees 2 000 Licensing Permitting Offsets 1 500 Insurance 500 A Preliminary Engineering 500 500 A Independent Engineer 4 Amount_1000 Factor Contingency Amount of above 0 Sub Total Development Costs 10 000 Ff 1 09 29 2010 Page 102 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 ii Phase 2 Engineering Construction and Start up Costs These are costs that occur after financial closing including interest during construction which is calculated using the Construction Phase Drawdown Schedule in Table 3 Land and Soft Costs e g Start up Mobilization Spares Working Capital Up Front Financing Fees Debt Reserves
187. ste Disposal For solid fuel fired projects Sorbent Use for SO2 Removal Each of 5 User Defined Additional Expense Items Input to Table 1C e Capital Fixed O amp M and Major Maintenance Related Inputs o Capital Cost 1000 and kw o Annual Plant Capacity Factor o Fixed O amp M Expenses e All Fixed O amp M Costs including e User Defined Category 1 e User Defined Category 2 e Additional Fixed O amp M o Major Maintenance Expenses e The sum of all Capitalized and Expensed Major Maintenance e Individually Capitalized Major Maintenance e Individually Expensed Major Maintenance o Property Taxes and Insurance e Property Taxes e Insurance e Each of five User Defined Additional Expense Items Input to Table 1C e Revenue Related Inputs o Energy Sales Applies to Periods Defined by the User in Table 1 or Table 1C e 8760 Hour Average including e Period 1A e Period 2A e Period 1B e Period 2B o Other Revenue Sources e All Revenues including those listed below and Other By Product Sales Other Energy Sales e Capacity Ancillary Services Payments e Each of five User Defined Additional Revenue Sources Input to Table 1C e Steam Sales 09 29 2010 Page 133 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 The Sensitivity Sheet is used to generate the tables used for the Tornado Diagrams The Increments used for the Tornado Diagrams are entered in the Data Input Sheet that is opened when you select the respective Tornado Diagram from the SENSITI
188. struction or operations phases The resulting cash flow is reported during the construction phase and through the operating phase Calculations of revenues minus expenses Depreciation and taxes are provided to be used in the calculations of Net Present Value NPV and Internal Rate of Return IRR provided in Table 8A NOTE The calculated unleveraged IRR may change slightly usually by less than 0 1 as a function of changes in project equity This can occur when you select the Factor option for calculating property taxes or insurance costs which when carried through to the unleveraged analysis are tied to the cost basis which in turn has a small dependency on the amount of debt assumed This effect is very minor and will not be observed if either annual inputs or a fixed 1000 yr amount is entered for Property Taxes and Insurance costs Results in Table 7A are expressed based on the Owner s percentage interest in the project 16 Table 8 NPV amp IRR Leveraged Table 8 provides calculation of the Net Present Value NPV and Internal Rate of Return IRR on a Leveraged Basis using results from Table 7 NPV calculations are performed based on the Owner s interest in the project discounted to the year of project financial closing IRRs are independent of the Owner s interest in the project The IRR Internal Rate of Return over 20 years represents the after tax return on the Owner s investment The NPV Net Present Value is calculated at th
189. t Maestro Electronic Databook for integrated scenario and portfolio analysis EconExpert Partnerships Deal Structuring Model Custom Model Development Project Screening and Analysis Facilities Siting Acquisitions Analysis Due Diligence Environmental Permitting Support Development and Negotiation of Agreements including Terms Sheets Project Financing Agreements Power Purchase Agreements PPAs Engineering Procurement and Construction Agreements EPC For additional information on EconExpert or CEI and the services we provide please visit our website at http www CEInsight com Or contact CEI at Competitive Energy Insight Inc Email Info CEInsight com Tel 858 566 0221 Fax 858 566 0287 Mailing Address 12025 Blue Diamond Court San Diego CA 92131 Competitive Energy Insight would greatly appreciate your feedback and comments on the EconExpert modeling suite and is committed to both updating and improving the models to include additional functionality that is important and of value to the energy industry 09 29 2010 Page 12 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 II How to Obtain or Extend a Subscription to EconExpert For those who are interested in purchasing a subscription to use EconExpert you can do so by contacting Competitive Energy Insight via email or at the phone number listed on the cover page Subscribers will be provided with free software training and access to all updat
190. t Value and Internal Rate of Return and Debt Service Coverage Ratios DSCR using the results from Table 7 Cash Flow Leveraged Table 8A NPV and IRR Unleveraged This sheet provides calculations of Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return using the results from Table 7A Cash Flow Unleveraged Table 9 Sources and Uses This sheet provides itemization in 1000 year of sources and uses of funds during the construction and operations phases of the project Table 10 Major Maintenance This sheet provides computation of both capitalized and expensed Major Maintenance costs and computation of the Major Maintenance Reserve Account Table 11 Financials This sheet provides the project s Income Statement Cash Flow Statement Balance Sheet and predicted impacts of the project on the performance of the Owner s Stock Cable 12 Dollars per MWH This sheet provides computation of revenues and expenses expressed in MWH including a Sources and Uses Statement expressed in MWH Table 13 Depreciation This sheet provides detailed itemization of depreciation expenses for book and for cash purposes including depreciation on the Initial Capital Investment and depreciation of Major Maintenance Expenses Eight Graphs Sheets The remaining sheets provide graphs illustrating results for the current case and for automated sensitivities that can be run for the current case Expanded discussions of the individual tables are provided belo
191. t for these sales Figure 45 Table 1 Global Inputs Other Revenues Other Revenues Real Escalation 96 Capacity Ancillary Svs Payment 4 Mos Applied yr kw Mo 0 0 Steam Sales 4000 lb thr 0 0 Other By Product Sales 1000 Ib hr Other Energy Sales If desired the user may alternatively specify annual rates and revenues from other sources in Table 1C 09 29 2010 Page 97 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 n Raw Materials and Operating Costs Variable Operations and Maintenance costs are dependent on annual electric power production Variable O amp M Inputs to Table 1 can be entered in the following categories Reagent and Disposal Costs Ton Costs for SO2 Sorbent Anhydrous Ammonia and Disposal of Solid wastes are input in ton in Base Year These costs are used with SO2 and NOx removal calculations to estimate annual variable operations and maintenance costs associated with these activities User Defined Variable O amp M Cost Categories 1000 Year and MWH Two User Defined categories of Variable O amp M are provided The user can name these categories and the names will be carried into the various tables and charts throughout the model There are also two options for inputting of Variable O amp M costs in each of these categories 1 MWH and 2 1000 year at 10096 capacity factor Both are expressed in Base Year The calculated annual variable O amp M costs wil
192. t including floating Interest Rates on Debt Accelerated or Deferred Principal Payments and Interest only payments e Annual Changes in Fuel Quality e Modeling of a specific contracts or agreements for Fuel Supply Power Purchase Tolling or Long Term Services Agreements e Modeling of specific plant outages or capital improvement projects e Step changes or single year events over the project life e Ftc Note that you can also enter formulas into annual input cells These formulas can be linked to other parts of EconExpert to sheets that you insert into the model and to sections at the bottom of each table that are available for you to perform your own calculations Results generated using Annual Inputs entries to Table 1C will either override results produced from a corresponding entry to Table 1 or will be added to those results Examples of specific inputs where results are added rather than overriding Global Inputs include Other Revenue Sources Other Fixed Expenses Other Capitalized Major Maintenance Additional Tax Deductions Additional State Taxes and Additional Federal Taxes 09 29 2010 Page 112 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Each of these are noted in Table 1C All of the other inputs will override Table 1 Inputs in AND ONLY IN the years that values are entered in Table 1C If Annual Inputs are entered in every year of the project life the corresponding Global Inputs entered in Table 1
193. ta Conversion Sheet The figure below provides a screen shot of the Data Conversion Table Figure 23 Hourly Entries to the Data Conversion Sheet E3 Microsoft Excel EconExpert LP Proforma V4 0 389 xls 1 E laj xi File Edit view Insert Format Tools Data Window Help Acrobat NAVIGATE PRINT SENSITIVITIES UTILITIES EconExpert HELP ENABLE MODEL 8 x SHAR SRY BB Slo a 4 zi lj BBB E AR A Condtional Formatting Arial 1 A a Biz u e x IM Wh i Be ts i Bis HG JHE O A DataConversi v K Default Inputs A B merca reu G H 1 J K a EconExpert LP V4 0 388 Copyright 2001 2002 2003 ompetitive Energy Insight Inc All Rights Reserved Conversion of 24 Period Power and Energy Prices to EconExpert format This sheet can be used to convert energy pricing data available from other models to the Annual Input If transferred data 0 then current Global Input will be used for that value Inputs examples and descriptions provided by CEI in the Model are provided for example purposes only CEI makes no representations or warranties with respect to n 1 2 3 4 5 6 if 8 Year 2006 2007 2008 2008 2010 2011 2012 zx i Description Default Inputs 4 12 Period Name Hours Period gt 13 ON Peak t F 5 x 16 Period 1 1 051 1 051 1 051 1 051 051 PR 14 Mid Peak 2 x 16 Period 2 421 421 421 421 421 G
194. that the fuel selection in this case is GAS and advising you of the use of Annual Inputs for Capacity and Heat Rate Fuel quality premises for the selected fuel are entered later in the table and discussed on page 93 09 29 2010 Page 85 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 b Economic Factors Economic Factors are entered in the next section which is shown in the Figure below Figure 34 Table 1 Global Inputs GNP Escalation Rate and Real Escalation Rates Economic Factors Base Year Constant Dollar in Mid Year 2002 1 GNP Escalation Rate Discount Rate for Leveraged NPV 96 12 00 Discount Rate for Unleveraged NPV 96 Rate on 6 Month Certificate of Deposit 10 00 Inputs here include The Base Year is the time frame from which all escalation calculations will be performed Operating Cost and Revenue inputs to Table 1 are expressed in Base Year and will be escalated to the current year by compounding the Real Escalation Rate assigned to that component with the GNP Escalation Rate described below The GNP Escalation Rate in Table 1 is the life of project rate of general inflation Each cost or revenue input in Table 1 also includes a Real escalation entry which when added to the GNP Escalation Rate provides the effective rate of escalation for that input So if the rate of escalation for an input is equal to the GNP Escalation Rate that input s Real Escalation Rate would be 0 0 If
195. the data entry rows the aggregated annual data is calculated These aggregated results can be automatically referenced to Table 1C In the first section of the Data Conversion Sheet the user is required to define the names and assignable hours to each of the desired block period Period 24 is calculated by difference to ensure that the total number of hours in a full calendar year is equal to 8760 note that leap years are neglected In the example shown on peak and off peak periods are specified quarterly with the number of operating hours assigned to each period The center area of the figure above illustrates plant capacity entries In the example above it is assumed that a combined cycle plant will be duct fired during peak conditions to raise the new and clean plant capacity to 575 MW During off peak conditions the plant new and clean capacity is 500 MW without duct firing Note how degradation of plant performance by season has been modeled In the third section of the table the capacity factor in each period is specified Note in the example where the plant is operated at a 98 capacity factor during peak conditions and only a 50 capacity factor during mid peak periods and does not dispatch off peak First the number of MWH of generation during each period is specified based on the inputs described above Next the energy pricing for each period is entered followed by computation of the revenues in each period and for the ye
196. tles Freezing titles allows you to set the header rows and columns of all tables in the model so that the row and column titles will remain on the screen as you scroll down or across the individual tables You can also unfreeze the titles for all tables in the model e Zoom EconExpert is equipped with a Command Menu module that allows you to optimize the appearance of the model on your computer monitor based on the Windows Display Settings that you have selected and the type of monitor that you have The basic Zoom formats in EconExpert are 40 50 75 or 100 though when selecting each of these settings some worksheets may be formatted to a slightly different Zoom Setting for optimal appearance Note that for the recommended Windows Display setting of 1024 x 767 Pixels 50 is the recommended Zoom format EconExpert If you have a lower resolution monitor and use a setting of 800 x 600 Pixels the recommended Zoom Setting in EconExpert is 40 You can check your Windows Display Settings in Windows by selecting Start Settings Control Panel Display Settings Zoom settings of 75 and 100 are also provided in the event that you would prefer to see a larger print format This might be desirable if you are displaying results using a digital projector To change the Zoom Setting from EconExpert select UTILITIES Table Viewing and Format Set Table Zoom c Reformat Cells Because most of the worksheets in EconExpert are protected you will not be ab
197. to the file where it is required The Figure on the next page illustrates how changes in the Global Inputs Sheet are highlighted The Current Target case is illustrated in a new worksheet with each of the input cells that have changed highlighted in ORANGE 09 29 2010 Page 53 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Figure 26 Comparing Data Files Highlighting of Inputs that Changed in a TARGET File View Insert Format Tools Data Window Help Acrobat NAVIGATE PRINT SENSITIVITIES UTILITIES EconExpert HELP ENABLE MODEL Select Checkbox to Use XIRR XIRR Req s Analysis ToolPak pee After Tax 500 Table 1 Section 1A GLOBAL INPUTS Global Inputs Holding Bin 1 is Not Labled a FACERCEI ProformatCEl Comg Shaded Areas Indicate Inputs Name of File Proformaw Compare Input Fil Global Inputs Holding Bin 2 is Not Labled Exam y Active Annual Inputs Sheet is Not Labeled DE IRR Selected IRR End of Year ORHADO DIAGRA Ho Annual Inputs Used HPY to by EOY 2003 1000 HPV and IRR Summary ere auy araa a ee Lewraged 7405 15395 nesen M uneverged 1501 a d D Y 3 Proforma HOTES IThis Workbook shows nbi E F Combined Cycle fige Bi ig 33 34 3s Plant Capacity Heat Rate amp FuelType Energy and Fuel Pricing Profiles i Period 1B 3 Rated Net Plant Capacity Mv Period 1B 37 Net
198. ttachments to emails It should be noted that while use of the EconExpert software has been successfully demonstrated with the listed systems the configuration of individual systems or networks might be a factor in the successful installation of this software If problems arise please contact CEI WinZip is a registered trademark of WinZip Computing Inc 09 29 2010 Page 16 IV EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Getting Started Installing EconExpert For a trial or paid subscription to EconExpert the following EconExpert file will be provided to you by CEI The file can be transferred to you by email or can be downloaded with approval codes from our website Note that the installation of the model MUST be initiated from your C drive and the installation file MUST NOT have the READ ONLY attribute selected EconExpert Installation File V xxx Your Name Your Company Zip This is the file that contains the uninstalled EconExpert Model Installation Copies should ONLY be provided by CEI Inc and under the terms of the License Agreement you are NOT permitted to provide your Installation Copy of the Model to others You will only need to open this file one time as an installed copy of the model will be saved you re the directory C EconExpert Files which the model will automatically add to your C Drive EconExpert Users Manual V xxx PDF This is the User s Manual which can be downloaded from the CEI Website www
199. tween inputs and special circumstances are flagged and the user is notified of instances where Annual Inputs entered in Table 1C will override or be added to results calculated using a Global Input to Table 1 Sensitivities This sheet is used to generate Tornado Diagrams and Sensitivity Analyses which allow you to evaluate how incrementing key parameters will affect the project s Internal Rate of Return and Net Present Value Data Conversion This sheet allows you to automatically convert One Twenty Four Period Forward Energy and Fuel Pricing and Plant Performance data into the four EconExpert Energy Pricing Periods and the two EconExpert Fuel Pricing Periods After the data is input to this sheet it can be cut and pasted as values from another model the data is automatically converted and entered into Table 1C Annual Inputs in the EconExpert format To perform this conversion select UTILITIES Convert Energy and Fuel Pricing to EconExpert Format You will be provided with the option of converting Energy Data Only Fuel Data Only or both data sets For additional details see Page 63 Project Summary This sheet provides a 1 page summary of key project results including IRR Summary NPV Summary Project Operating Parameters Fuel Parameters Project Schedule Investment Costs Energy Pricing Fuel Pricing Sources and Uses of Operating Funds in MWH You can turn the protection off on this sheet and modify it as desired
200. u select Extend my License Enable or Extend my EconExpert License Next the following screen will appear 09 29 2010 Page 13 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Figure 1 How to Obtain an Authorized Subscription to EconExpert EconExpert PV V14 9025 4 Copyright 2001 2010 CEI Inc All Rights Reserved STOP HERE 4 current license to EconExpert PV can be obtained by entering codes provided to you on the phone by CEI Inc If your installation has become corrupted you may also repair it using this option To authorize a License please provide the following information to CEI spoke jesekoojeejoojoekokojoke Original Licensed User Steve Provol Current Expiration Date 09 24 2011 Computer Clock Setting 09 29 2010 2 50 PM Your Access Code 70370 voee ooo e eoo ooo Notice This spreadsheet is protected by copyright law and international treaties Unauthorized use reproduction or distribution of this spreadsheet or any portion of it may result in severe civil and criminal penalties and will be prosecuted to the maximum extent possible under the law Provide the information on the screen to CEI We will use this information to provide you with the necessary License Extension Codes over the phone which are specific to your system Select OK and the following screen will appear Figure 2 License Authorization Screen Yes No LICENSE AUTHOR ATION Econ E xpert Do you want to continue by entelfs
201. uction Ammonia to Nitrogen ratio Cost of the anhydrous ammonia in ton Figure 44 Table 1 Global Inputs NOx Reduction NOx Removal by SCR or SNCR Uncontrolled NOx 0 60 Ib NOXMMBtu before SCR SNCR 2 19 tons NOwhr Uncontrolled NOx Reduction 90 0 0 06 Ib NOXMMBtu emitted 0 22 tonsNOxhr Emitted Ammonia Nitrogen Ratio 1 20 Anhydrous Ammonia Sorbent Calculated Anhydrous Ammonia Use Lbs Anhydrous Ammonia Used MMBtu Fuel 1 4 tons NH3 hour 09 29 2010 Page 96 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 m Other Revenues In addition to revenues from Energy Sales the user may specify other sources of revenues in Table 1 that include Capacity Ancillary Services Payments Inputs include the o Number of months year that the payment applies o kw month payment rate expressed in Base Year o Real Escalation Rate of the payment amount Steam Sales Inputs include the o 1000 lb hr of steam sold o 1000 Ib value of the steam expressed in Base Year o Real Escalation Rate of the steam price Note that the net plant heat rate is computed based on the Rated Net Plant Capacity and does not include steam sales Renewable Energy Credtis and Other Energy Sales Inputs include the o MW capacity of additional sales o MWH expressed in Base Year o Real Escalation Rate Note that the net plant heat rate is computed based on the Rated Net Plant Capacity and does not accoun
202. ude o Forward price curves for fuel and energy o Plant performance degradation and recovery after maintenance including saw tooth curve shaped degradation of Plant Capacity or Heat Rate o Customized debt including Floating Interest Rates on Debt Accelerated or Deferred Principal Payments Sweeps tied to the Debt Coverage Ratio Interest only payments Lump sum principal repayments o Changes in fuel quality over the life of the project o Modeling of a specific contracts or agreements for Fuel Supply Agreements Power Purchase Agreements O amp M services LTSA agreements o Modeling of specific plant outages or capital improvement projects Step changes or single year events o Use of the User Defined Fields that permit completely flexible customization of the model O Note that you can also enter formulas into annual input cells These formulas can be linked to other parts of EconExpert to sheets that you insert into the model and to sections at the bottom of each table that are available for you to perform your own calculations 09 29 2010 Page 69 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 Results generated using Annual Inputs entries to Table 1C will either override results produced from a corresponding entry to Table 1 or will be added to those results Examples of specific inputs where results are added rather than overriding Global Inputs include User Defined Revenue Sources five categories that
203. udes many powerful enhancements from previous versions This User s Manual is applicable to the EconExpert EP for Thermal Electric Power Plants to the EconExpert PV model for Photo Voltaic Projects and to the EconExpert CP model for Commodity Product applications like Ethanol and other Biofuels The EconExpert models all have virtually identical architectures with differences in the models relating exclusively to input categories applicable to the respective technologies In certain circumstances references in this User s Manual may apply to specifics of the EconExpert EP model In those cases applications to the EconExpert PV or EconExpert CP model can be made by analogy EconExpert is a sophisticated and highly flexible spreadsheet developed in Microsoft Excel to be used for performing financial analysis of ALL electric power generating projects using virtually any technology type including gas fired coal fired petroleum coke fired wood fired oil fired wind solar or geothermal projects EconExpert can also be effectively utilized to evaluate greenfield or brownfield projects acquisitions repowering or unit replacements distributed generation and utility scale or industrial scale power or cogeneration projects The model developed by Competitive Energy Insight Inc CEI a California Corporation with offices in San Diego has evolved since 1997 as a tool first used extensively in CEI s private consulting practice in support of Fortu
204. ulations of the net cash flow before tax income taxes and net cash flow after tax on a leveraged basis i e including all debt Depreciation is reported from Table 13 and resulting state and federal income taxes capital gains taxes and tax loss carry forwards are calculated net cash flow is reported during the construction phase and operating phases of the project Calculations of revenues minus expenses Depreciation and taxes are provided to be used in the calculations of Leveraged Net Present Value NPV to date of financial closing and Internal Rate of Return IRR provided in Table 8 Table 7A Cash Flow Unleveraged This sheet provides calculations of the net cash flow before tax income taxes and net cash flow after tax on an unleveraged basis i e assuming no debt during the Construction or Operations Phases Depreciation is reported from Table 13 and resulting state and federal income taxes capital gains taxes and tax loss carry forwards are 09 29 2010 Page 61 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 calculated The net cash flow is reported during the construction phase and operating phases of the project Calculations of revenues minus expenses Depreciation and taxes are provided to be used in the calculations of unleveraged Net Present Value NPV to date of financial closing and Internal Rate of Return IRR provided in Table 8A Table 8 NPV and IRR Leveraged This sheet provides calculations of Net Presen
205. ur original copy of the Fully Functioning model If desired you can archive a Values Only copy of the model that can be restored by a licensed user to a full working version of the model To restore a full working version from a Recoverable Values Only copy use the Import option on the UTILITIES MENU Please be aware that under the terms of the Software License Agreement all printed reports and copies of EconExpert must contain the original copyright notices 09 29 2010 Page 126 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 F Sensitivity Analyses EconExpert is equipped with the capability to run automated sensitivity analyses on a variety of important project parameters These include O Project Valuation Sensitivities to Energy and Fuel Price Sensitivities of IRR and NPV to a wide array of inputs Capital Cost 1000 and kw Energy Price Applies to Periods Defined by the User in Table 1 or Table 1C e 8760 Hour Average includes all periods listed below e Period 1A e Period 2A e Period 1B e Period 2B Financing e Owner s Equity During Operations Phase Interest Rate on Construction Debt Interest Rate on Senior Debt Interest Rate on Subordinated Debt Term of Senior Debt Term of Subordinated Debt Fixed O amp M Expenses e All Fixed O amp M Costs including those listed below e User Defined Category 1 e User Defined Category 2 Each of the five User Defined O amp M Categories Fuel Price e A
206. used for analysis of a real project PV Facility Capacity Section 2 Annual Capacity Inputs PV Energy Sales Profile Section 4 Period 1 Period 2 Specify Base Units MW MW 000s orkw kw MW Weighted Annual Average Rated Net PV Facility CapacityyMW 00 0 1 MW 1000 kw of Annual MWH Produced 7 Annual Inputs 10 0 38 Degradation after 1 Year o 4o Mo after tyr Annual Inputs Real s3 Annual Degradation after 2 Years yr 0 5 a yr thereafter Period 1 2 3 4 Energy Prices uMWH Escalation MWH Economic Factors Energy Sales MWH 200 00 150 C Base Year Constant Dollar in Mid Year 2010 Js Less TransmissionWheeling MWH Year to Calculate XIIPV to 2009 Het Energy Price to Customer MWH 200 00 150 GHP Escalation Rate for Revs amp Exps Discount Rate for Leveraged XHP to m 20n 0008 4 TS M Ready Sensitivity Analyses in EconExpert are executed by incrementing the selected variable over a range of values that can be defined by the user The Sensitivity Increment is used to define the range by iterating the model over 7 intervals from the base case value minus three times the Increment to the base case value plus three times the Increment When you run a Sensitivity Analysis you will be prompted to enter the respective Increment to be used If you run all of the Sensitivities as a batch you will be advised of the
207. uthorized codes are entered even if the model was provided by others all copies of EconExpert will function on the authorized computer during the authorized license period From the EconExpert Command Menu licensed users can create a Values Only copy of the model that can be shared with others and viewed on any PC including PC s that are not licensed to use the Fully Functional model These Values Only copies must be created using the EconExpert Command Menu Much of the Command Menu functionality will be preserved in the Values Only copy allowing others to easily view and print reports and charts for the specific case study that you have provided to them A Values Only copy will not allow users change inputs or to evaluate any new cases If you purchase a subscription to the EconExpert model any copies of the model that you save will be recoverable as Values Only versions even after your license expires The Initial Installation File you receive from CEI will only enable the use of the model for a limited period usually 30 days If you have purchased an extended period license to use the EconExpert model contact CEI after performing your initial installation CEI will provide you with the necessary License Extension Codes to fully enable your use of the model for the subscribed license period To access the License Enable License Extension feature first contact CEI by telephone and then from the UTILTIES men
208. w 1 License The License Sheet provides the Software License Agreement EconExpert may only be used under the terms of the applicable License Agreement and the user must acknowledge their acceptance of those terms in order to enable the model The terms of the software license should be read carefully BEFORE using the model Prior to the first use of the model the user must accept the license agreement by clicking on the button labeled I Have Read and Accept to the Terms of the EconExpert License located at the end of the License Agreement 2 Title The Title Sheet includes the EconExpert and CEI Logos and notification of the product copyright Contact information for CEI is also provided The Macro Button on the top of this sheet will take the user to the Global Inputs sheet 09 29 2010 Page 62 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 3 Status The Status Sheet provides Alerts and Warnings to the User that are relevant to the current configuration of the model Warnings include detection of potentially conflicting inputs e g a specified loan term that is longer than the project life special circumstances and notification that Annual Inputs to Table 1C will produce results that will override or will be added to results otherwise generated from corresponding inputs to Table 1 It is highly recommended that the user check this sheet prior to reporting final results to help insure that the current case has been modeled corre
209. will be totally overridden and will not be used in the analysis If Annual Inputs are only entered in some years then the Global Inputs will be used in all other years applying escalation where appropriate If Annual Inputs are entered into any cell in Table 1C the respective Input Indicator will show the value 9999999 Column C along the left side of the respective inputs and the associated non zero inputs will be reformatted to If there are no entries in a row the a red 0 will appear A red warning labeled will also appear in Table 1 and in the results tables where the Annual Input values are applied advising you that an Annual Input value has been entered and that results calculated from the corresponding Global Input will be appropriately overridden The Status Sheet will also provide a notice that this has occurred A feature is provided on the EconExpert UTILITIES Menu that allows you to clear and reset the Annual Input Table to all 0s meaning that none of the inputs to Table 1 will be overridden To RESET the Annual Inputs Table from the UTILITIES menu select Save or Reset Inputs Reset Annual Inputs to 0 s Note that if you do this the current Annual Inputs will be lost You will be provided with a warning If desired you can save the Annual Inputs before resetting them from this same menu option The individual Annual Inputs are discussed in more detail starting on page 111 Examples provided in the Appendix also give exa
210. y Tablet Global Inputs 5 emt ro tert dee ete alee tet eee tede doe eet deas 82 a Plant Capacity Heat Rate and Fuel Type sess nennen nennen ener enne 85 b Economic Factors 5 2 eere die deta dieere dis ye waa eat pibe eed eel tee eed a 86 c Equity and Project Ownetship 5 pr Heute etude e ee fee Rep e rdi 87 d Project Schedule eed ete etd I e PRAE RE DEGERE Se 89 e Plant Capacity Factor ne eere et greet e ee ee nee oe te esses en etre tete 90 IJ AIITEM 9 g Computations of Owner s Stock Price Performance cccceesccceesceeseeceesseceeecececeessaeceeaeeceeeeeesaeeneaaeneaaeceaeeeaes 91 hyEnergy Pricing Profile I eee e re esr er Me noes Wheeled oe ae 92 1 Fuel Prcimng Protile 5 35 idee t det d etr ett er CEP aie eee 93 Jy Fuel Quality BP Model Only rerien erit ner rte pte e tete tete eoe eh eie redeo EU ae eR pee ee ce enn 94 k SO2 Removal by CFB or Scrubbers for coal or biomass fired projects EP Model Only 95 1 NOx Removal by Selective Catalytic Reduction SCR or Selective Non Catalytic Reduction SNER EP Model Only o etae eec Hee odere e ede E OR Re E e HELPER HERR EE TL Pe HRS oce epe t OR ee 96 m Othet REVENUS 3 ineo tete dede Het Deh hee e aa I dete pe P ET ed eee dee Pede 97 n Raw Materials and Operating Costs eenei eene ener enitn en EEE a SRE enne 98 o Major Maintenance Expenses Capitalized and Expensed ese
211. year of operations Other items such as Land Value and Working Capital are also recovered at the end of the Project Life Tables throughout the model will show results over the resulting Project Life and columns after the end of the Project Life will show 0 at the top of the column indicating that the project is inactive during that period Using the factors listed above the dates for Financial Closing Start of Operations and Project Retirement are reported If the Start of Operations results in part year operations in the first year costs in the first and last year of the project life will be prorated based on the percent of the year that the plant is in service 09 29 2010 Page 89 EconExpert Users Manual Copyright 2001 2010 e Plant Capacity Factor The Plant Capacity Factor is the percentage of potential annual generation that is produced over the year accounting for plant dispatch and plant availability So a capacity factor of 80 means that the net annual MWH sold from the facility is 80 of the plant s generating capacity times 8760 hours year The model calculates the equivalent full load hours of operation for the purposes of performing the analysis Figure 37 Table 1 Global Inputs Plant Capacity Factor Annual Plant Capacity Factor Year Equivalent Hrs 96 of Full Load Production at Full Load 1st Yr 2005 12 Mo 8 059 2nd Yr 2006 8 059 0 A 3rd Yr 2007 8 059 4th Yr 2008 8 059 All Later Years 2009 92

User`s Manual for EconExpert-EP and EconExpert

Contents

Download Pdf Manuals

Related Search

Related Contents