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1. Portfolio On 10 000 00 Score Probability Trend Symbol Instrument Begin Open Close Win Years CalDays AvgProfit ROM Avg Profit High Bullish AUD CAD Australian Dollar Canadian Dollar Oct 12 2014 Oct 29 2014 9 4 51 Medium Bullish AUD NZD Australian Dollar New Zealand Dollar Oct 12 2014 Nov 3 2014 75 8 23 41 54 14 4 20 Low Bearish EUR AUD Euro Australian Dollar Oct 8 2014 Nov 6 2014 75 8 30 119 11 7 4 17 Medium Bearish GBP AUD British Pound Australian Dollar Oct 8 2014 Oct 28 2014 75 8 21 100 59 74 2 75 Medium Bearish EUR GBP Euro British Pound Oct 9 2014 Oct 31 2014 75 20 23 39 3 81 4 m Open Trades Total 0 00 Grand Total 6 968 06 Print Remove All Remove Selected Move to Closed Trades Portfolio Analytics A new technical analysis graphic appears within the Portfolio called the Portfolio Analytics The Portfolio Analytics will display a bar graph of your Expected Daily Risk Levels along with your Total Period Portfolio Metrics as show below Expected Daily Risk Levels Total Period Portfolio Metrics 100 0 1 90 Confidence Intervals Low End Expected High End Expected Return 75 4090 62 34 130 90 50 0 Expected Drawdown 95 51 39 37 0 65 Actual Portfolio Values 25 0 Prior Year Current Year Current Year 0 0 Actual Return 44 04 12 80 5 041 42 Previous Current
2. Choosing a symbol will allow you to see the historical trends for the entire year of the selected commodity currency pair and or equity You can then sort the column by date to get a chronological timeline of the historical trends The second dropdown box will contain a list of months if month is selected in the first dropdown and if symbol is selected then you can type or scroll to the available symbol you would like to search Won at least Blank 00 The percent parameter allows you to ignore a set of historical trades unless they win don t lose money at least that percent of the time over the number of years examined Find trends that have won atleast 75 of the time If you want to see a winner at least 80 of the time and you go back ten years at least eight of those years will need to be winners If you go back five years at least four of them need to be winners The granularity of the percent parameter is fairly rough due to the amount of history available Without going back 100 or more years there is no difference between 79 and 80 Both would require at least eight wins on ten years of history The lowest percentage you can search on is 75 anything lower is not considered a strong seasonal trend and is ignored Trend Direction TradeMiner can look for Bullish Bearish or Both Bullish and Bearish Trends Bullish trends are trends that go up in price over the selected day range Bearish trends are those that go do
3. P amp L Trade Sold EUR AUD Euro Australian Dollar Oct 8 2014 Nov 6 2014 1 4526 3 9 900 00 6 22 Bought AUD NZD Australian Dollar New Zealand Dollar Oct 12 2014 Nov 3 2014 1 1113 1 1246 25 10 000 00 27 26 2 726 49 Bought AUD NZD Australian Dollar New Zealand Dollar Oct 12 2014 Nov 3 2014 1 1113 1 1246 25 10 000 00 27 26 2 726 49 Sold EUR GBP Euro British Pound Oct 9 2014 Oct 31 2014 0 7871 0 7835 33 9 900 00 19 46 1 926 64 Bought AUD CAD Australian Dollar Canadian Dollar Oct 12 2014 Oct 29 2014 0 9721 0 9835 41 9 840 00 44 77 4 405 11 Bought AUD CAD Australian Dollar Canadian Dollar Oct 12 2014 Oct 29 2014 0 9721 0 9835 41 9 840 00 44 77 4 405 11 Sold GBP AUD British Pound Australian Dollar Oct 8 2014 Oct 28 2014 1 8288 1 8225 27 9 720 00 15 39 1 495 86 26 Grand Total 14 099 66 Print Delete Trade Settings Tab In the setting tab you will find all the commodities currency pairs or Stock equities included in the data cube In the settings tab you can create customized groups to search for trends in Any symbol that has a checkmark in the Use column will be included when you run search in step 1 Each of the columns in the settings tab can be clicked on to sort in ascending descending order Examples of custom groups include all grain contracts in the futures version This group would be cr
4. User Manual Table of Contents Tr deMin rPro Theonass sonccececteesstaeseesGeice cesses sanaine E 3 Step 1 S rehu 4 MIS ON naa 424 4 HET SAN 9 11 SIT OPEN 10 BIN 5107 00 SE 14 Neural Network Prediction 14 Step 3 23 PICK 23 POCOO 23 4 ACCOUNTING 2 bend dened aes ested eck 26 Settings 27 TD 28 RISK DISC SUfeu anne ea ae eiendeler 29 End USer Licens Agreement Lava aske 32 TradeMiner Pro Theory The TradeMiner Pro Software enables a trader to search for historical trends and patterns that meets a certain criteria or level of success The user focuses on the month symbol they wish to see the trend for how many years to include in the pattern how often it should win what the minimum average gain should be to consider it a successful trend how far the market can retrace before considering it a losing trend and how long the trend should last The concept is that if we find patterns cycles or trends that continually repeat themselves in our historical log then it is likely that these same patterns cycles and trends
5. not sold 1 GRANT OF LICENSE This EULA grants you the following rights You may install This Product on one 1 computer system per license You are not allowed to share your key code with anyone else whosoever in so doing you will be in violation of this agreement You may not allow remotely connected COMPUTERS nor to invoke application sharing of the software This connection includes any indirect connections made through software or hardware which pools or aggregates connections It is the user s responsibility to keep their key code safe and secure Gecko Software will not be liable for loss due to lost or stolen login information or key codes Gecko Software recommends users use highly cryptic login and password information If you feel your login and password information has been compromised contact Gecko Software immediately Storage Network Use You may also store or install a copy of the SOFTWARE PRODUCT on storage device such as a network server used only to install or run the SOFTWARE PRODUCT on YOUR computer License Pak If this package is a Gecko License Pak you may install and use additional copies of the computer software portion of the SOFTWARE PRODUCT up to the number of copies specified above as Licensed Copies 2 DESCRIPTION OF OTHER RIGHTS AND LIMITATIONS Academic Edition Software If the SOFTWARE PRODUCT is identified as Academic Edition or AE you must be a Qualified Educational User to use the SOFT
6. BE USED STOCKS FUTURES FOREX AND OPTIONS MAY NOT BE SUITABLE INVESTMENTS FOR ALL INDIVIDUALS AND INDIVIDUALS SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER THEIR FINANCIAL CONDITION IN DECIDING WHETHER TO TRADE OPTION TRADERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE EXERCISE OF A LONG OPTION WOULD RESULT IN A FUTURES OR FOREX POSITION HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN WITHIN THIS PRODUCT IN FACT THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM WE ARE NOT RECOMMENDING TO BUY SELL OR INVEST IN ANY SPECIFIC STOCK FUTURES FOREX OR OPTION THIS PRODUCT WAS DESIGNED FOR EDUCATIONAL AND RESEARCH PURPOSES ONLY ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT IN ADDITION HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING FOR EXAMPLE THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTAT
7. Previous Current Actual Drawdown 22 17 50 24 19 824 39 Value at Risk VaR Volatility 44 634 16 30 276 38 Help Daily Risk Levels The daily risk levels graph includes two daily risk metrics expected daily Value at Risk VaR and expected daily Volatility Value at Risk VaR The Value at Risk VaR metric is the largest percentage decline based on a 95 probability that a given portfolio is likely to incur on any given day i e there is a 95 probability that a given portfolio will not lose more on a percentage basis than its VaR value on any given day Example If a portfolio has a VaR value of 10 and a current value of 100 it is 95 likely that the portfolio will not lose more than 10 i e 10 on any given day Volatility The Volatility metric us the expected daily volatility of a given portfolio i e it is the typical up and down percentage movement of the entire portfolio on any given day Example If a portfolio has an expected volatility of 5 and a current value of 100 the expected daily up and down price movement is expected to be on average 5 of the total portfolio value i e 5 up or down on any given day 24 Total Period Portfolio Metrics The total period portfolio metrics section includes two types of values expected confidence intervals and actual metric values The expected confidence intervals and the actual metric values are provided for both Portfolio Return and Portfolio Max Drawdow
8. amount of risk vs reward TRADE HISTORY NKDH Nikkei 225 Mar Print Remove From Portfolio Remove All From Portfolio Add to Portfolio Bullish NKDH Begins Nov 21 2014 Ends Jan 2 2014 Average Profit 4 461 36 Biggest Win 8 300 00 Total Profit 49 075 00 Won 100 Average Risk Average Reward Year by Year Trade Table The Year by Year Trade Table shows a accounting of each year s trade during the trend period The Date the trade Started and ended as well as the entry and exit price are shown The Max Draw and the closed P amp L is also calculated TRADE HISTORY EMR Emerson Electric Co Bullish EMR Begins Nov 3 2014 Ends Dec 30 2014 Average Profit 846 87 Biggest Win 2 116 80 Total Profit 27 099 69 Won 94 Print Remove From Portfolio Remove All From Portfolio Add to Portfolio Begin Date Begin Price End Date End Price Max Draw Closed P amp L Nov 1 2013 66 84 30 2013 70 26 213 51 511 91 a Nov 1 2012 47 14 28 2012 50 74 144 96 762 89 Nov 1 2011 43 63 29 2011 43 95 317 26 73 91 Nov 1 2010 50 44 30 2010 52 60 289 60 429 09 Nov 2 2009 33 68 Dec 30 2009 38 69 152 51 1 486 26 Nov 3 2008 27 26 30 2008 30 90 764 51 1 334 63 Nov 1 2007 42 58 Dec 28 2007 47 74 550 35 1 211 36 Nov 1 2006 34 48 Dec 28 2006 36 21 324 66 502 35 Nov 1 2
9. are responsible for any expenses you may incur e g cost of shipping the SOFTWARE PRODUCT to Gecko This Limited Warranty is void if failure of the SOFTWARE PRODUCT has resulted from accident abuse misapplication abnormal use a virus or as an act of god as defined by the laws of the state of Utah Any replacement SOFTWARE PRODUCT will be warranted for the remainder of the original warranty period of three 3 days Outside the United States neither these remedies nor any product support services offered by Gecko are available without proof of purchase from an authorized international source To exercise your remedy contact Gecko Software Inc Attn Gecko Sales Information Center at the Web address specified above DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES The limited warranty that appears above is the only express warranty made to you and is provided in lieu of any other express warranties if any created by any documentation packaging or outside reseller advertisements or claims Except for the limited warranty and to the maximum extent permitted by applicable law Gecko and its suppliers provide the SOFTWARE PRODUCT and Support Services if any AS IS AND WITH ALL FAULTS and hereby disclaim all other warranties and conditions either express implied or statutory including but not limited to any if any implied warranties or conditions of merchantability of fitness for a particular purpose of lack of viruses of accuracy or completeness of responses o
10. only one medium that is appropriate for your computer You may not loan rent lease lend or otherwise transfer the other medium to another user except as part of the permanent transfer as provided above of the SOFTWARE PRODUCT 6 BACKUP COPY After installation of the SOFTWARE PRODUCT pursuant to this EULA you may keep the original media on which the SOFTWARE PRODUCT was provided by Gecko solely for backup or archival purposes If the original media is required to use the SOFTWARE PRODUCT on the COMPUTER you may make one copy of the SOFTWARE PRODUCT solely for backup or archival purposes Except as expressly provided in this EULA you may not otherwise make copies of the SOFTWARE PRODUCT EDUCATIONAL LITERATURE OR MULTIMEDIA PRODUCTS or the printed materials accompanying the SOFTWARE PRODUCT 7 U S GOVERNMENT RESTRICTED RIGHTS All SOFTWARE PRODUCTS provided to the U S Government pursuant to solicitations issued on or after December 1 1995 is provided with the commercial license rights and restrictions described elsewhere herein All SOFTWARE PRODUCT provided to the U S Government pursuant to solicitations issued prior to December 1 1995 is provided with Restricted Rights as provided for in FAR 48 CFR 52 227 14 JUNE 1987 or DFAR 48 CFR 252 227 7013 OCT 1988 as applicable 8 EXPORT RESTRICTIONS You agree that you will not export or re export the SOFTWARE PRODUCT any part thereof or any process or service that is the direct
11. or indirectly from the content or your inability to access the information for any delay in or failure of the transmission or the receipt of any instruction or notifications Distribution This software is not intended for distribution or use by any person in any country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation None of the services or investments referred to in this software are available to persons residing in any country where the provision of such services or investments would be contrary to local law or regulation It is the responsibility of visitor to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local law or regulation to which they are subject Views Opinions and outside links 39 The views and opinions represented in any link to an outside website links and or resources are not controlled by Gecko Software or by our associated firms Further Gecko Software nor our associated firms are responsible for their availability content or delivery of services DISCLAIMER THE DATA CONTAINED HEREIN IS BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT CANNOT BE GUARANTEED AS TO RELIABILITY ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS AND AS SUCH ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE WE WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANYTHING WHICH MAY RESULT FROM RELIANCE ON THIS DATA OR THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED HERE IN DISCLOSURE OF RISK THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING STOCKS FUTURES FOREX AND OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL THEREFORE ONLY GENUINE RISK FUNDS SHOULD
12. 00 00 per trade i e up to 5 trades at one time Quantity I would like to be in a quantity of 55 per trade Neural Network Risk Tolerance Preferences Step 2 Only My individual risk tolerance is Conservative I want to avoid losses as much as possible and I am willing to miss out on potentially large gains Moderate My risk tolerance is greater than Conservative but is less than Aggressive Aggressive I want to get into as many large gains as possible and I am willing to accept potentially large losses Portfolio Optimization Preferences Step 3 Only When selecting trades for my finished portfolio I would like to Optimize using the following Minimize Risk Maximize Return Minimize Risk and Maximize Return E Optimize when I auto select to build my portfolio so that it will try to keep me my max trades at any one time Closed Trade Preferences Step 3 Only When a trade in my Final Portfolio doses i e trade end date has passed take the following action Automatically move closed trades to Accounting Tab I will manually move trades to the Accounting Tab Score Weighting Preferences Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 amp Step 4 Volatility of Returns 35 Average Returns 15 Percent Accuracy 15 Drawdown 35 Total 100 Score Default My Score Default Save As My Score Default Trade Allocation Preferences allow you to set your account balance You can then c
13. 005 27 64 29 2005 30 19 17 27 922 70 Nov 1 2004 24 92 Dec 30 2004 27 43 48 29 1 007 69 Now 3 2003 21 55 30 2003 24 66 2552 63 1 444 197 13 Step 2 Neural Network You can add trades to the Neural Network tab in Step 1 by selecting the add column on the desired trend or by double clicking the trend Switching over to the Neural Network Tab you will see the User interface on this tab Step 1 Search 5 Step 2 Calculate Probabilities 8 Analyze Trades Neural Network Scan and compare upcoming opportunities within 5 trading day s of their begin date s against their historical trends and market cycles to calculate this year s probability of success Note The closer to the entry date the more reliable but you will have fewer results In Step 2 TradeMiner will calculate a High Medium Low and Very Low probability that the trade will act as it has in the past In other words the software runs the selected trades through a neural network and attempts to identify if the historical trend will repeat this upcoming year Because the neural network looks at current market data you must have an internet connection to receive a probability Neural Network Prediction Model Brief Overview of Neural Networks A biological neural network is simply a series of interconnected neurons that interact with each other in order to transmit signals and process information In other words biological
14. ATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS 31 End User License Agreement IMPORTANT READ CAREFULLY This Gecko End User License Agreement EULA is a legal agreement between you either an individual or a single entity and Gecko Software Inc corporation for the Gecko software product identified above which includes computer software and may include associated media printed materials and online or electronic documentation and data SOFTWARE PRODUCT The SOFTWARE PRODUCT also includes any updates and supplements to the original SOFTWARE PRODUCT provided to you by Gecko Any software provided along with the SOFTWARE PRODUCT that is associated with a separate end user license agreement is licensed to you under the terms of that license agreement By installing copying downloading accessing or otherwise using the SOFTWARE PRODUCT you agree to be bound by the terms of this EULA If you do not agree to the terms of this EULA do not continue to install or use the SOFTWARE PRODUCT No verbal or written agreement may supersede this agreement SOFTWARE PRODUCT LICENSE The SOFTWARE PRODUCT is protected by copyright laws and international copyright treaties as well as other intellectual property laws and treaties The SOFTWARE PRODUCT is licensed
15. ION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS 40
16. THING WHICH MAY RESULT FROM RELIANCE ON THIS DATA OR THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED HERE IN DISCLOSURE OF RISK THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING STOCKS FUTURES FOREX AND OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL THEREFORE ONLY GENUINE RISK FUNDS SHOULD BE USED STOCKS FUTURES FOREX AND OPTIONS MAY NOT BE SUITABLE INVESTMENTS FOR ALL INDIVIDUALS AND INDIVIDUALS SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER THEIR FINANCIAL CONDITION IN DECIDING WHETHER TO TRADE OPTION TRADERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE EXERCISE OF A LONG OPTION WOULD RESULT IN A FUTURES OR FOREX POSITION HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN IN FACT THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 30 HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT IN ADDITION HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING FOR EXAMPLE THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS REL
17. WARE PRODUCT If you are not a Qualified Education User you have no rights under this EULA To determine if you are a Qualified Educational User please contact the Gecko Sales Information Center in the USA at 435 752 8026 32 Not For Resale Software If the SOFTWARE PRODUCT is labeled Not For Resale or NFR then notwithstanding other sections of this EULA your use of the SOFTWARE PRODUCT is limited to use for demonstration test or evaluation purposes and you may not resell or otherwise transfer for value or install the SOFTWARE PRODUCT on more than one single COMPUTER Limitations on Reverse Engineering Decompilation and Disassembly You may not reverse engineer decompile or disassemble the SOFTWARE PRODUCT except and only to the extent that such activity is expressly permitted by applicable law notwithstanding this limitation Separation of Components The SOFTWARE PRODUCT is licensed as a single product Its component parts may not be separated Rental You may not rent lease or lend the SOFTWARE PRODUCT Trademarks This EULA does not grant you any rights in connection with any trademarks or service marks of Gecko Software Inc Support Services Gecko may provide you with support services related to the SOFTWARE PRODUCT Support Services Use of Support Services is governed by the Gecko policies and programs described in the user manual in on line documentation and or other Gecko provided materials Any supplementa
18. aracteristics of a Very Low Trade The most important thing to remember about the neural network trade classification model is that it uses a pattern recognition model to identify what successful and unsuccessful trades look like where trades that are classified as High or Medium look like they will be successful trades and trades that are classified as Low or Very Low look like they will be unsuccessful trades Additionally the two extreme classifications i e High and Very Low tend to be more volatile trades whereas the two middle classifications i e Medium and Low tend to be trades that are similar to the average historical trade See table 1 for a summary of each of the trade classifications Table 1 Trade Classification Characteristics Classification Summary of Classification Characteristics High These trades are classified as successful trades i e they have a positive return bias These trades are typically more volatile than the average historical trade especially when prices are either overbought for long trades or oversold for short trades 19 These trades typically produce greater than average positive returns however if the current trend reverses course during the trade then the trade could end up producing large losses as the asset price reverses and moves quickly in the other direction Medium These trades are classified as successful trades i e they have a
19. daily profit displayed as a percentage rate Max Gain Pips or Tics Futures and Forex only The biggest historical single year closed profit for the number of years the trend has existed Tic Value Pip Value Futures and Forex only The value of the tic or pip price Quantity How many contracts shares pairs purchased This amount is set in the user preferences Margin Contract Futures and Forex only The price of the margin or contract price Avg Daily Profit Tics or Pips Futures and Forex only Average daily profit displayed in tics or pips Avg Daily Profit 5 Average daily profit displayed in dollars Biggest Profit Tics or Pips Futures and Forex only The biggest historical single year closed profit and loss for this trade displayed in tics or pips Biggest Profit or The biggest historical single year closed profit and loss for this trade displayed as a percentage Biggest Profit S The biggest historical single year closed profit and loss for this trade Max Draw Tics or Pips Futures and Forex only The most the market moved against the trade historically displayed in tics or pips Max Draw or The most the market moved against the trade historically displayed as a percentage rate Max Daw S The most the market moved against the trade historically in dollars Avg Draw Tics or Pips Futures and Forex only The average draw down f
20. des In other words instead of focusing on one type of trade over the other both types of trades will be treated equally which means that there should be on average a more equal number of both types of trades successful vs unsuccessful included in the output of the neural network model Lastly this setting is typically used by those who aren t completely active traders but also aren t completely passive investors Aggressive The Aggressive setting is for traders who have very little risk aversion and this simply means that when building the neural network classification model this setting will tell the model to focus on identifying as many successful trades as possible this also means that some potentially large losses will be included as well When this setting is selected there will typically be more trades classified as successful and fewer trades classified as unsuccessful because the neural network Is putting most of its effort towards identifying the trades that look like they will be losing trades Lastly this setting is typically used by those who are relatively active traders The Portfolio Optimization Preferences section will allow you to set your preference of how you would like the auto selection algorithm to help choose an optimal portfolio for you based on your risk profile Minimize Risk The Minimize Risk setting attempts to choose trades for your portfolio that are not as volatile and work well with other uncorrelated
21. duplicate start dates V Remove same symbol overlapping trend dates When performing a search there are symbols that will have the same start date but have a different end date If you wish to see all the different trends and statistics related to each un checking the filter and performing a dig will reveal all the trades that were filtered out Some Trends will begin the day after or occur while a longer term trend is happening If this is the case then the filter to remove same symbols overlapping trend dates will not show the trends that happen in the middle of a longer tend Again removing this filter will show the trends that were removed Dig Now When all your parameters are set selecting the Dig Now button will initiate a search through the data cube and then will present all the trades that meet the criteria After a dig has been initiated a green progress bar will appear as the software advances through the DataCube The Dig Now Button will also change to read Cancel which if selected will stop the search and display the results that it was able to find to the point of canceling User Preferences The User preferences dialog box can be accessed by selecting the User Preferences button User Preferences Trade Allocation Preferences Step 1 Step 2 amp Step 3 My total account balance is 50 000 00 and I would like to allocate trades using the following Dollars I would like to allocate 20 per trade for a total of 10 0
22. e trade entry date that a trade classification is made the more accurate the classification will likely be e g using the neural network to classify a trade the day before the trade entry date means that the model will be using relatively more accurate price data when compared to a classification that is made 15 trading days before the trade entry date Additionally the classification for each individual trade can only be made one time each day which makes sense because the neural network uses daily price data and as new price data is included in the classification model trade classifications will sometimes change so it is a good idea to re calculate the neural network model one last time prior to placing any trades If you would like to only calculate classifications for trades that are within a specified number of trading days before the trade start date you can adjust the number of trading days before the trade start date that classifications will be allowed However it is important to remember that the greater the number of classifications models that need to be built the longer it will take to calculate the neural network results so the computation time can be reduced by only classifying trades that are within a smaller number of trading days The setting for the total number of trading days prior to the trade start date which controls how soon classifications can be made can be adjusted prior to pressing the Calculate Now button to class
23. eated by sorting by the Group option and selecting all the contracts with a Grain grouping Another Example is stocks that trade between 510 520 Sorting by the previous close and then selecting only those stocks in the 510 520 price range would create the custom group desired Once all the symbols you desire in your group are selected you can select Save Group and a dialogue box will appear asking you to name your group After you have named your group you can find in the drop down any time after 27 Education Tab The TradeMiner Education center has step by step videos walking through each aspect of the software an AOA ONT el Discover Recurring Trends And Market Cycles STOCKS 3 Ph 1 800 862 7193 Ext 3 Call 1 800 862 7193 Ext 3 28 Risk Disclosure High Risk Investments Trading Stocks Futures Foreign Exchange Forex or Options on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you Before deciding to trade any of these markets you should carefully consider your investment objectives level of experience and risk appetite The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading these markets and seek advice from an independent financial ad
24. ecause when you attempt to move trades from your pick list to your portfolio they will recognize that the end date has past and move automatically over to your closed trades in step 4 So for back testing you would want this in manual mode and for forward trading and analyzing you may choose either mode The Score Weight Preferences system uses many different factors to score each individual trade Volatility of Returns Average Returns Percent Accuracy and Drawdown are the four factors that can be adjusted by the user the other factors are proprietary and cannot be adjustedO and adjusting their percentages will adjust the impact that each respective factor has on the score of the trade Volatility of Returns and Drawdown are negative factors and increasing their percentages will increase the score of trades that are less volatile and have smaller drawdowns and will decrease the score of trades that are more volatile and have larger drawdowns Average Returns and Percent Accuracy are positive factors and increasing the percentages will increase the score of trades that have high percentage returns and high percentage accuracy and will decrease the score of trades that have low percentage returns and low percentage accuracy Metric Metric Summary Increasing Decreasing Weight Volatility of Returns Measures the relative amount of year over year Increases decreases the relative score of trades that return volatility of each TradeMiner trade exhibit lo
25. ected For example if a stock has a strong rally right before an upcoming earnings release the risk associated with a bad earnings report may outweigh the potential reward from a good earnings report and the best strategy might be to simply take your profits a little bit early or potentially purchase some protection in order to hedge your position This would have definitely been a prudent strategy to take for a Select Comfort SCSS trade which had an entry date of 01 02 2013 and an exit date of 01 29 2013 because they ended up reporting pretty weak results and giving a negative future outlook which was released after market close on the 24th of January and was only a few days before the trade exit date and their shares ended up sinking the following day 21 Select Comfort Corporation 28 Nov 5 Dec 12 Dec 19 Dec 26 2 Jan 9 Jan 18 Jan 23 Jan 30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb Summary of the Neural Network Analysis Tool TradeMiner is a tool that identifies historical trends and patterns and the TradeMiner neural network pattern recognition model is a classification model that identifies what successful and unsuccessful trades look like prior to their trade start date and then classifies each trade as either successful or unsuccessful and whether or not the trade looks like an average trade or a greater than average trade 22 Step 3 Portfolio The Portfolio tab may be used to create and analyze a list of desired cont
26. es into Step 2 or Move to Portfolio all trades listed within your current Pick List Pick List On 10 000 00 Score Probability Trend Symbol Instrument Begin Open Close Win Years CalDays Avg Profit ROM Avg Profit High Bullish AUD CAD Australian Dollar Canadian Dollar Oct 12 2014 Oct 29 2014 9 4 51 Medium Bullish AUD NZD Australian Dollar New Zealand Dollar Oct 12 2014 Nov 3 2014 75 8 23 41 4 14 G 4 20 Low Bearish EUR AUD Euro Australian Dollar Oct8 2014 Nov 6 2014 75 8 30 119 11 76 217 Medium Bearish GBP AUD British Pound Australian Dollar 8 2014 Oct 28 2014 75 8 21 100 9 74 9275 Medium Bearish EUR GEP Euro British Pound Oct 9 2014 Oct 31 2014 75 20 23 39 3 8 m Print Remove Selected Remove All Move to Portfolio Portfolio Once trades have been added into your Portfolio from your Pick List you may analyze the current profit loss of all open trades from the Open Trades Total beneath your trades list You may also see the combined profit of all closed and open trades from the Grand Total If you would like to remove a trade from your Portfolio select to either Remove Selected or Remove All Removed trades will return to 23 your Pick List Once you have finished analyzing trades within your Portfolio you may move them to Step 4 Accounting by selecting Move to Closed Trades
27. ess mail etc By agreeing to this EULA and installing this software you are giving digitally written consent to receive telephone calls from Gecko Software its affiliates and associated vendors and you wave your rights to any laws prohibiting Gecko from contacting you via telephone fax email or any other method preferred by Gecko DATA DOWNLOAD DATA CUBE IS DEFINED AS This is a non guaranteed service with no rights or privileges whatsoever and is only an extension of the service provided by Gecko Software Inc for This Product SUBSCRIPTION BASED DATA DOWNLOAD IS DEFINED AS Data in which Gecko Software provides by computer transmission services to their subscribing customers This service is not a guaranteed service and may be discontinued off line or late for any given period or amount of time without warranty or restitution Data subscription services and fees are a non refundable non guaranteed extension of service provided by Gecko Software Inc for This Product Data has been provided from sources believed to be reliable but no guarantee is made as to its accuracy if when trading real markets do not rely singularly upon This Product for your trading decisions consult a licensed brokerage firm to confirm ALL decisions and price information This license does not give any recipient the right to re transmit or re distribute this data in any format whatsoever LIMITATION OF LIABILITY AND REMEDIES Notwithstanding any damages tha
28. eversion Trade Trade Classification Characteristics As mentioned previously the TradeMiner neural network classification model uses pattern recognition to identify what successful and unsuccessful trades look like which can be both trend following trades and mean reverting trades If a trade is identified as being a successful trade the trade classification will either be a classification of High or a classification of Medium and similarly if a trade is identified as being an unsuccessful trade the trade classification will either be a classification of Low or a classification of Very Low In order to help you visualize what mean by what successful and unsuccessful trades look like am going to provide a hypothetical example of a trend following trade that will give you an idea of what pattern that type of trade might follow for each of the different trade classifications A trend following trade that looks like it will be successful will typically start building momentum after prices reverse course and start a new trend and after the new trend has been established see figure 3 the price action will need to further confirm the validity of the trend reversal assuming that the trade is indeed a successful trade For a trend following trade all of this will typically occur prior to the trade entry date The exit date of the TradeMiner trade will either be near the end of the entire trend or close to the end of one or m
29. f results and of lack of negligence or lack of workmanlike effort all with regard to the SOFTWARE PRODUCT and the provision of or failure to provide Support Services ALSO THERE IS NO WARRANTY OR CONDITION OF TITLE QUIET ENJOYMENT QUIET POSSESSION AND 36 CORRESPONDENCE TO DESCRIPTION OR NON INFRINGEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE SOFTWARE PRODUCT EXCLUSION OF INCIDENTAL CONSEQUENTIAL AND CERTAIN OTHER DAMAGES To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law in no event shall Gecko or its suppliers be liable for any special incidental indirect or consequential damages whatsoever including but not limited to damages for loss of profits or confidential or other information for business interruption for personal injury for loss of privacy for failure to meet any duty including of good faith or of reasonable care for negligence and for any other pecuniary or other loss whatsoever arising out of or in any way related to the use of or inability to use the SOFTWARE PRODUCT the provision of or failure to provide Support Services or otherwise under or in connection with any provision of this EULA even in the event of the fault tort including negligence strict liability breach of contract or breach of warranty of Gecko or any supplier and even if Gecko or any supplier has been advised of the possibility of such damages Gecko Software Inc at its discretion may from time to time contact you by telephone fax email paper mail expr
30. fford to lose or take risks beyond your means You should be aware of all the risks associated with off exchange foreign currency trading and trading on margin seek advice from an independent and licensed financial advisor if you have any doubts Testimonial Disclaimer Unique experiences and past performances do not guarantee future results Most testimonials are unsolicited and are therefore non representative of all clients certain accounts may have worse performance than that indicated Trading involves substantial risk and there is always the potential for loss Your trading results may vary When the risk factor is compounded through leveraged accounts we suggest that only genuine risk funds should be used in such trading If you do not have the extra capital that you can afford to lose you should not trade with leveraged margin accounts No safe trading system has ever been devised and no one can guarantee profits or freedom from loss Gecko Software does not pay for testimonials all of our testimonials although may be solicited are still voluntary Gecko Software Inc and its associated companies Opinions Any opinions news research analyses prices or other information contained on this software is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice Gecko Software Inc or its associated firms will not accept liability for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit
31. hold Gecko liable for any mistakes discrepancies inaccuracies or mathematical errors that may be included with the software application supporting materials manuals or supplemental products provided by Gecko Software Inc or its subsidiaries groups friends associates managers employee s spouses or anyone else who lives on planet earth You agree to use this software totally and 100 at your own risk You must also agree to and recognize that the list of support technologies provided by numerous companies is long and the ability to bring all these capabilities together in a workable solution is magic at best and the user recognizes that any failure of any of these technologies along the way could cause any part of or all of this program and associated features to fail and agrees to hold Gecko and all associated companies harmless in all respects If an implied warranty or condition is created by your state jurisdiction and federal or state provincial law prohibits disclaimer of it you also have an implied warranty or condition BUT ONLY AS TO DEFECTS DISCOVERED DURING THE PERIOD OF THIS LIMITED WARRANTY THREE 3 DAYS AS 35 TO ANY DEFECTS DISCOVERED AFTER THE THREE 3 DAY PERIOD THERE IS NO WARRANTY OR CONDITION OF ANY KIND Some states jurisdictions do not allow limitations on duration of an implied warranty so the above limitation may not apply to you Any supplements or updates to the SOFTWARE PRODUCT including without limi
32. hoose if you would like to allocate a specific percentage of your account balance to each trade which will vary the quantity per trade or you may choose to allocate a fixed quantity to each trade note choosing to allocate based on quantity will allow the per trade quantity to be the same on every trade every trade regardless of your account size The Neural Network Risk Tolerance Preferences Tab allows you to set your individual risk tolerance Conservative The Conservative setting is for risk adverse traders and this simply means that when building the neural network classification model this setting will tell the model to avoid as many unsuccessful trades as possible this also means that some potentially large gains will likely be missed When this setting is selected there will typically be fewer trades classified as successful and more trades classified as unsuccessful because the neural network is putting most of its effort towards identifying the trades that look like they will be unsuccessful trades Lastly this setting is typically used by those who are relatively passive investors Moderate The Moderate setting is for traders who are somewhat risk adverse but also do not want to miss out on too many large gains This setting is in between Conservative and Aggressive which means that the classification model will give an equal amount of effort to trying to identify successful trades as it does trying to identify unsuccessful tra
33. ify each of the trades 15 After running the neural network model trades that are not yet close enough to the trade start date will not receive a trade classification Instead the TradeMiner Probability column will tell you the number of days until a classification can be calculated If the trade is close enough to the trade start date so that a classification can be calculated the trade classification will show up in the Probability column after the trade has been classified Classification Model Trade Types The two types of trades that the TradeMiner neural network classification model recognizes includes both trend following trades and mean reversion trades Trend following trades see figure 1 occur when an asset tends to move in one particular direction for an extended period of time and after which the asset reverses its current trend and starts trending in the opposite direction Down Trend Short Long Figure 1 Trend Following Trade Mean reversion trades see figure 2 occur when an asset tends to revert back to its mean value i e average value over time after having been over bought or over sold for a period of time In other words the asset has an equilibrium price or equilibrium average rate of return that it tends to revert back to whenever it has moved too far in one direction 16 Sell Level Short v r Buy Level Long Figure 2 Mean R
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35. look like they will be successful and Low Very Low trades classifications are given to trades that look like they will be unsuccessful In addition to the directional bias there is another important characteristic that distinguishes High from Medium and Low from Very Low which is whether or not a trade looks like it will be an average trade For example if a trade looks like it will have a greater than average gain then that trade will be classified as High but if the trade looks like it will have an average gain then that trade will be classified as Medium Similarly if a trade looks like it will have a greater than average loss then that trade will be classified as Very Low but if the trade looks like it will have an average loss then that trade will be classified as Low Using the Neural Network Classification Model The first thing that needs to be done prior to using the classification model is to make sure that you have specified your individual risk tolerance preferences where you will be able to select from conservative moderate or aggressive This preference can be set by selecting the User Preferences button that is located in the top right corner of Step 1 through Step 4 Another important thing to remember is that since the neural network classification model uses current year daily prices trade classifications can only be made up to 15 trading days before the actual trade entry date however as would be expected the closer to th
36. n Portfolio Return The Portfolio Return confidence interval is an estimate of the expected portfolio return that will occur over the entire portfolio period the expected portfolio return will fall within the interval range The Worst value is the bottom of the range and the Best value is the top of the range whereas the Expected value is simply the estimated portfolio return value Example If a portfolio has an expected portfolio return of 10 with 8 as its worst estimate and 12 as its best estimate and a beginning value of 100 the expected range of the portfolio return based ona 95 probability is 8 8 to 12 12 with an expected value of 10 10 Portfolio Max Drawdown Confidence Interval The Max Drawdown confidence interval is an estimate of the expected maximum drawdown during the portfolio period the Max Drawdown of portfolio is the maximum percentage decline that occurs during a given period and its 95 confidence interval l e there is 95 confidence that the maximum drawdown will fall within the interval range The Worst value is the bottom of the range and the Best value is the top of the range whereas the Expected value is simply the estimated max drawdown value Example If a portfolio has an expected maximum drawdown of 7 with 8 as its worst estimate and 6 as its best estimate and a begging value of 100 the expected range of the portf
37. n the results window You can also select the Colum Options Button and add remove or position any of the columns as you prefer Column Options Column Formulas Average Profit Total profit years Total Historical Profit Sum profit top year profit top year years Max Draw If buying the difference between the entry price and the lowest low during the trade If selling the difference between the entry price and the highest high during the trade Avg Draw Total draw years Avg Daily Profit Percent Daily percent profit percent profit calendar days in trade Total daily percent profit sum of daily percent profit for all years in the trade Average daily percent profit total daily percent profit years Avg Daily Profit Dollars Daily profit profit calendar days in trade Total daily profit sum of daily profit for all years in the trade Average daily profit total daily profit years Risk Reward Ratio Risk reward ratio average profit average draw Score Proprietary formula that determines which opportunities make the most amount of money in the shortest amount of time with the least amount of risk Charts TradeMiner provides several charts to help display the information in the results window On the right hand side of the software are 4 clickable windows When a chart is clicked a larger table chart will be shown beneath the Results Window 11 Historic Histogram The hist
38. neural networks give humans the ability to learn complex patterns Similarly an artificial neural network which is what we used for our prediction model is a mathematical model that was inspired by biological neural networks and can be used for pattern recognition purposes We are simply going to call them neural networks Overview of the Trade Classification Model The TradeMiner Probability column which is located in Step 2 Neural Network uses a neural network pattern recognition model to classify each TradeMiner trade that has been added to Step 2 as either a successful trade or an unsuccessful trade a successful trade is simply a trade that has positive 14 returns and inversely an unsuccessful trade is simply a trade that has negative returns In order to do this the neural network model uses various technical indicators which are calculated using the price action that occurs prior to each trade entry date to determine what a trade looks like i e whether it looks like it will be a successful trade or whether it looks like it will be an unsuccessful trade by comparing the current year indicator values to the same values for historical trades Once a trade is classified as either successful trade or an unsuccessful trade this is the current year directional bias of the trade then each trade is further classified as either High Medium Low or Very Low where High Medium classifications are given to trades that
39. nuine risk funds should be used in such trading If you do not have the extra capital that you can afford to lose you should not trade No completely safe trading system has ever been devised and no one can guarantee profits or freedom from loss Gecko Software does not pay for testimonials most of our testimonials are unsolicited and voluntary Gecko Software Market Opinions Any opinions news research analyses prices or other information contained on this website are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice Gecko Software is not liable for any loss or damage including without limitation any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information Gecko Software has taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the information on the website The content on this website is subject to change at any time without notice Views Opinions and outside links The views and opinions represented in any link to an outside website link and or resources are not controlled by Gecko Software or by our associated firms Further Gecko Software nor our associated firms are responsible for their availability content or delivery of services DISCLAIMER THE DATA CONTAINED HEREIN IS BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE BUT CANNOT BE GUARANTEED AS TO RELIABILITY ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS AND AS SUCH ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE WE WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY
40. olio drawdown based 95 probability is 6 56 to 8 58 with an expected value of 7 57 Portfolio Return amp Portfolio Max Drawdown Actual Values The values for the Portfolio Return and Portfolio Max Drawdown metrics are simply the actual historical values that occurred for an individual portfolio during the prior year and during the current year current year values will be 0 if the portfolio isn t yet active have blue text if portfolio is currently active and have black text if the portfolio is no longer active and all trades are over 25 Step 4 Accounting Your Accounting tab may be used to store all of your closed trades These trades may be entered using the Move to Closed Trades button within the Step 3 Portfolio or automatically after closing Your Accounting tab will display a grand total for all trades along with all profit loss information for each trade Step 1 Search Step 2 Neural Network Step 3 Portfolio Step 4 Accounting Settings Education Step 4 Closed Trades Trades 7 Trades listed below have been moved either automatically after cose date has passed or manually anytime from Step 3 Portfolio Tab You may manually adjust columns listed in blue font to account for your actual trading activity i e entry exit date entry exit price and quantity Entry Symbol Instrument Open Date Close Date Open Price Close Price Quantity Amount Trade P amp L Trade
41. or this trade historically displayed in tics or pips Avg Draw or ROM The average draw down for this trade historically displayed as a percentage rate Avg Draw S The average draw down for this trade historically in dollars Total Wins Total count of winning years Total Losses Total count of loosing years Max Gain or ROM The biggest historical single year closed profit for the number of years the trend has existed displayed as a percentage rate Max Gain S The biggest historical single year closed profit for the number of years the trend has existed displayed in dollars Trading Days Number of trading days in the trade Total Historical Profit or ROM Total Historical Profit S Sum of the profit or loss from all the years in the pattern Amount Trade The dollar amount traded for the displayed results Optionable Stocks and Futures only signifies if the commodity or equity 15 available for option trading Group Futures only Classification of a Commodity i e Grains Metals Energies etc 10 Previous Close Stocks only will display the last close price of the equity at the time of last internet connection Internet is required to update the close prices Sector Stocks only Classification of equities i e Healthcare Financial Technology etc Industry Stocks only Deeper Classification of equities You may drag any column to a different location i
42. ore legs of the trend which will obviously differ depending on many different variables such as the length of the trade On the other hand a trend following trade that looks like it will be unsuccessful prior to the trade entry date won t be able to completely reverse its prior trend so prices will continue moving in the same direction after a brief price consolidation see figure 4 17 Figure 3 Characteristics of a Successful Trade Figure 4 Characteristics of a Unsuccessful Trade If the trade looks like it will be successful as shown in figure 3 above the neural network classification model will classify the trade as either High or Medium If the trade classification is Medium then the model has determined that the trade is currently exhibiting the characteristics of a successful trade that has an average positive return an average trade is simply a trade where the trade metrics such as return and volatility have values that are similar to their respective historical values This means that the model expects the trade to follow its typical price pattern and that it also expects the trade to be a successful trade which is the directional bias of a Medium trade classification see figure 5 for an example If the trade is classified as High then the trade is currently exhibiting the characteristics of a successful trade that has a greater than average positive return a greater than average trade is simply a trade where
43. orical Histogram is a look back in time This is what your portfolio would have looked like if every year over the course of the trend you had entered at the open of the trend and exited at the close of the trend TRADE HISTORY EUR JPY Euro Japanese Yen Print Remove From Portfolio Remove All From Portfolio Add to Portfolio Bullish EUR JPY Begins Mar 25 2014 Ends Apr 8 2014 Average Profit 9 759 91 Biggest Win 26 118 57 Total Profit 87 839 20 Won 78 75 000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year by Year look back The Year by Year looks back is a graph that allows you to quickly see the winning and losing years also you can identify the max draw downs and max the market hit during the trend dates Winning trades show as a green bar losing trades as a red bar The White lines signify how high and low the investment went up and or down during the trend period TRADE HISTORY FTI FMC Technologies Inc Print Remove From Portfolio Remove All From Portfolio to Portfolio Bullish FTI Begins Nov 24 2014 Ends Dec 31 2014 Average Profit 665 17 Biggest Win 1 636 29 Total Profit 7 982 04 Won 92 2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 T 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 12 Historical Average Risk vs Reward The Historical Average Risk vs Reward chart visually shows in a pie chart the
44. our Neural Network tab Toggling the check box in this column adds or removes them from the Watch List Double clicking the row adds that trade to your Neural Network if it was not already selected and switches to the Neural Network tab Score A software ranking system on a scale of 5 0 with 5 being the high Score takes into account volatility of returns average returns percent accuracy and drawdown This score is the software s way of filtering through the results and providing trends that are stronger as a higher score Trend The direction of the entry trade bullish buying bearish selling Symbol The symbol to buy or sell Instrument Name of the Commodity Currency Pair or Equity Begin Open The date the trend generally begins projected into this year s calendar Close The date the trend tends to end Win Percentage of years that were winners Years Number of years in the pattern Days Number of calendar days in the trade Avg Profit or ROM The average closed profit and loss for this trade historically displayed as a percentage rate Avg Profit S The average closed profit and loss for this trade historically displayed in dollars Avg Profit Tics Pips Futures and Forex only The average profit displayed in tics or pips Risk Reward Historical Risk vs Reward for the number of years the trend has existed Avg Daily Profit or ROM Average
45. positive return bias These trades have characteristics that are similar to the average trade These trades do not have any particular trade behavior to watch out for Low These trades are classified as unsuccessful trades i e they have a negative return bias These trades have characteristics that are similar to the average trade These trades do not have any particular trade behavior to watch out for Very Low These trades are classified as unsuccessful trades i e they have a negative return bias These trades are typically more volatile than the average historical trade especially when prices are either oversold for long trades or overbought for short trades These trades typically produce greater than average negative returns however if the current price trend reverses course during the trade then the trade could end up producing large gains as the asset price reverses and moves quickly in the other direction Trade Strategies Based on Trade Classification There are many different trading strategies that can be applied to the results of the neural network model output and the type of trade strategy chosen will likely depend on both your individual risk tolerance i e conservative moderate or aggressive and the type of investor that you are i e active trader vs passive investor To provide an example a passive investor that is relatively conservative would want to set their
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47. racts within a customizable trading portfolio Once trades have been added into your Pick List you may then choose the number of active trades to be displayed how many additional trades you may wish to add and you may have TradeMiner automatically choose which trades out of your Pick List to be added into your Portfolio Step 1 Search Step 2 Neural Network Step 3 Portfolio Step 4 Accounting Settings Education Step 3 Select From Pick List To Create Your Portfolio I would like to be in no more than 54 trade s total therefore based on my current portfolio I m able to add up to 5 additional trades I would like to add 14 additional trade s now When auto selecting trades for your portfolio only indude trades where the probabilities have been calculated Yes 9 No Auto Select Undo You may expand or collapse your Pick List Portfolio sections by select the black arrows which separate the two sections Click the up arrow to expand the Portfolio click the down arrow to expand the Pick List These arrows appear within the follow graphic Pick List av Portfolio Pick List You may add trades into the Step 3 tab by selecting Add to Pick List from Step 2 Your Pick List will be used to determine which trades to add into your Portfolio when choosing to Auto Select From this section you may choose to Print your Pick List Remove Selected to return highlighted trades into Step 2 Remove All trad
48. risk tolerance setting to conservative which tells the classification model to focus on avoiding unsuccessful trades and will typically produce fewer trades with High or Medium classifications and then only enter into trades that are classified as either High or Medium It would also be a good idea when using this type of strategy to select a greater number of trades in order to have a more diversified portfolio 20 On the other hand an active trader that is relatively aggressive would want to set their risk tolerance to aggressive which tells the classification model to focus on not missing out on successful trades and will typically produce a relatively greater number of trades with High or Medium classifications and enter into trades that are either classified as High or Medium while watching trades classified as Very Low in order to see if they reverse course It would also be a good idea when using this type of strategy to select a relatively smaller number of trades in order to have a more concentrated portfolio so that each trade can be watched more closely Lastly the two strategies presented in this section are definitely an exhaustive list of the types of strategies that could be used with the TradeMiner Neural Network Analysis Tool and the only reason that am providing these examples is to illustrate of a couple of different ways that the neural network model could be used Non Normal Events and other market event
49. s When using the neural network classification model it is important to pay attention to both non normal market events a non normal event is an uncommon event that impacts the markets in a way that reduces the likelihood of a historical trend recurring at least for the time being and market events especially when one occurs after the trade entry date A good example of a non normal market event is the 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami which had a large impact on nuclear related stocks especially uranium producers because of the nuclear disaster that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant and the negative sentiment towards nuclear power generation that resulted This type of non normal market event will likely invalidate any ongoing historical trend that might be occurring at the time assuming that the event doesn t have the same directional impact as the trend and it is definitely be a good idea to take the expected impact of the event into consideration before any trading decisions are made assuming that the trade hasn t yet been made A good example of an important market event to pay attention to is an earnings release for stocks ora crop report for commodities that occurs during a trade s entry and exit dates and even though these market events could be what cause the historical trend to occur at least most of the time they also bring in additional uncertainty and risk if their results don t turn out as exp
50. similar trades Maximize Return The Maximize Return setting attempts to choose trades for your portfolio that maximize return which can mean bigger potential gains as well as bigger potential losses due to historically higher volatility and attempts to group them with other uncorrelated similar trades Minimize Risk and Maximize Return The Minimize Risk and Maximize Return setting attempts to choose trades that are a happy medium of both minimizing risk and maximizing return and attempts to assemble a portfolio meeting these criteria with as low of correlation as possible The last optional checkbox in this preference is whether you want the auto selection algorithm to choose the max number of trades for you to be in consistently based on the choices it has to choose from in your pick list So for example if your max number of trades is 5 and 1 of those trades ends before the other trades end then the algorithm will attempt to add in another trade so you are always 5 trades as often as possible By not having this box checked it will simply choose 5 trades total from the pick list for you to be in The Closed Trades Preferences Help section allows you to choose to have your closed trades where the End Date has passed automatically moved to step 4 to the closed trades accounting tab or whether you would like to manually move them If you choose to have them automatically moved you have to keep this in mind when back testing on past months b
51. stribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation None of the services or investments referred to in this website are available to persons residing in any country where the provision of such services or investments would be contrary to local law or regulation or to the laws of the United States It is the responsibility of visitors to this website to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local law or regulation to which they are subject Market Risks and Online Trading The trading program s provide sophisticated order entry and tracking of orders All stop loss limit and entry orders are generally deemed reliable against slippage but slippage may still occur based on market conditions and liquidity Trading on line no matter how convenient or efficient does not 29 necessarily reduce risks associated with stocks futures forex or options trading All quotes and trades are subject to the terms and conditions of the End User License Agreement and Client Agreement Testimonial Disclaimer Unique experiences and past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results Testimonials herein are unsolicited and are non representative of all clients certain accounts may have worse performance than that indicated Trading Stocks Futures Forex or Options involves substantial risk and there is always the potential for loss Your trading results may vary Because the risk factor is high trading any leverage markets only ge
52. t immediately destroy all copies of the SOFTWARE PRODUCT and all of its component parts 3 UPGRADES If the SOFTWARE PRODUCT is labeled as an upgrade you must be properly licensed to use a product identified by Gecko Software Inc as being eligible for the upgrade in order to use the 33 SOFTWARE PRODUCT A SOFTWARE PRODUCT labeled as an upgrade replaces and or supplements the product that formed the basis for your eligibility for the upgrade You may use the resulting upgraded product only in accordance with the terms of this EULA 4 COPYRIGHT All title and intellectual property rights in and to the SOFTWARE PRODUCT including but not limited to any images photographs animations video audio music text and applets incorporated into the SOFTWARE PRODUCT the accompanying printed materials and any copies of the SOFTWARE PRODUCT are owned by Gecko Software Inc or its suppliers All title and intellectual property rights in and to the content which may be accessed through use of the SOFTWARE PRODUCT is the property of the respective content owner and may be protected by applicable copyright or other intellectual property laws and treaties This EULA grants you no rights to use such content All rights not expressly granted are reserved by Gecko Software Inc 5 DUAL MEDIA SOFTWARE You may receive the SOFTWARE PRODUCT AND OR Educational materials in more than one medium Regardless of the type or size of medium you receive you may use
53. t you might incur for any reason whatsoever including without limitation all damages referenced above and all direct or general damages the entire liability of Gecko and any of its suppliers under any provision of this EULA and your exclusive remedy for all of the foregoing except for any remedy of repair or replacement elected by Gecko with respect to any breach of the Limited Warranty shall be limited to the amount actually paid by you for the SOFTWARE PRODUCT The foregoing 37 limitations exclusions and disclaimers described above shall apply to the maximum extent permitted by applicable law even if any remedy fails its essential purpose This agreement will be governed by the laws of the state of Utah excluding the application of its conflicts of law rules Any litigation under arising out of or in any manner related to this agreement must be brought in the Cache County court in the state of Utah High Risk Investment Off exchange foreign currency trading on margin Futures on Margin and Stock Trading all carry a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you Before deciding to invest you should carefully consider your investment objectives level of experience and risk appetite The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some all or even more than your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot a
54. tation any if any service pack or hot fixes provided to you after the expiration of the three 3 day Limited Warranty period are not covered by any warranty or condition express or implied LIMITATION ON REMEDIES NO CONSEQUENTIAL OR OTHER DAMAGES Your exclusive remedy for any breach of this Limited Warranty is as set forth below Except for any refund elected by Gecko YOU ARE NOT ENTITLED TO ANY DAMAGES INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES if the SOFTWARE PRODUCT does not meet Gecko s Limited Warranty and to the maximum extent allowed by applicable law even if any remedy fails of its essential purpose The terms Exclusion of Incidental Consequential and Certain Other Damages below are also incorporated into this Limited Warranty Some states jurisdictions do not allow the exclusion or limitation of incidental or consequential damages so the above limitation or exclusion may not apply to you This Limited Warranty gives you specific legal rights You may have others that vary from state jurisdiction to state jurisdiction YOUR EXCLUSIVE REMEDY Gecko and its suppliers entire liability and your exclusive remedy shall be at Gecko s option from time to time a return of the price paid if any for or b repair or replacement of the SOFTWARE PRODUCT that does not meet this Limited Warranty and that is returned to Gecko with a copy of your receipt You will receive the remedy elected by Gecko without charge except that you
55. the trade metrics such as return and volatility have values that are greater than their typical values This means that the trade is expected to be more volatile than a typical trade and that it also expects the trade to be a successful trade which is the directional bias of a High trade see figure 6 for an example Figure 5 Characteristics of a Medium Trade Figure 6 Characteristics of a High Trade 18 If the trade looks like it will be unsuccessful as shown in figure 4 above the neural network classification model will classify the trade as either Low or Very Low If the trade classification is Low then the model has determined that the trade is currently exhibiting the characteristics of an unsuccessful trade that has an average negative return This means that the model expects the trade to follow its typical unsuccessful price pattern which means the directional bias of the trade is negative see figure 7 for an example If the trade classification is Very Low then the model has determined that the trade is currently exhibiting the characteristics of a greater than average unsuccessful trade This means that the model expects the trade to have a greater than average negative return which means that the directional bias of the trade is negative and that the trade looks like it will be more volatile that the typical unsuccessful trade see figure 8 for an example Figure 7 Characteristics of a Low Trade Figure 8 Ch
56. tware will have some default settings on the first run It will remember your settings automatically for subsequent runs User Inputs The user interface in the search tab reads like a sentence with select parameters you the user can change and adjust to find the trends that meet your criteria Below is the user interface found in the Forex Version InaricMMinco Step 2 Neural Network Step 3 Portfolio Step 4 Accounting Settings Education Step 1 Find amp Select High Probability Trading Opportunities For Your Portfolio Trade View Prospect for trends in the Month of November Find trends that have won at least 75 of the time showing Both w 2014 DataCube List trends that last atleast V 10 trading day s but no more than V 25 trading days Mine atleast 8 years of history User Preferences Remove same symbol duplicate start dates 7 Remove same symbol overlapping dates f Column Options Each of the user defined fields will be described below Month or Symbol The First dropdown box will allow you to select either a search by month or a search by symbol Prospect for trends in the Month of March Choosing month focuses the selection of historical trends on those that have trend start date within the selected month If you choose November then only trends that start in November will be selected The trades may last past the end of November depending on your maximum days setting
57. visor if you have any doubts Internet Trading Risks There are risks associated with utilizing an Internet based deal execution trading system including but not limited to the failure of hardware software and Internet connection Since Gecko Software and any partners do not control signal power its reception or routing via Internet configuration of your equipment or reliability of its connection we cannot be responsible for communication failures distortions or delays when trading via the Internet Our partners employ back up systems and contingency plans to minimize the possibility of system failure and trading via telephone to the clearing firm is an additional option if such an event occurs Accuracy of Information The content in this manual and on the website is subject to change at any time without notice and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions Gecko Software has taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the information on the website however does not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from the content or your inability to access the website for any delay in or failure of the transmission or the receipt of any instruction or notifications sent through this website or by email Distribution This site is not intended for distribution or use by any person in any country where such di
58. wer higher return volatility Average Returns Scores each TradeMiner trade based on its Increases decreases the relative score of trades that have average return with a focus on how quick each higher lower average returns trade return is generated Percent Accuracy Scores each TradeMiner trade based on its Increases decreases the relative score trades that have overall win percent higher lower win percentages DrawDown Measured the relative amount of risk due to the Increases decreases the relative score of trades that maximum trade drawdown and average trade exhibits lower higher drawdown related risk drawdown of each TradeMiner trade Note The impact to the score that occurs when the percentage for each factor is adjusted will be different for different trades The impact to the score of trades with higher scores will be less noticeable when compared to the impact to the score of trades with lower scores and the reason that this will typically be the case is because the un adjustable proprietary factors have a greater impact on trades with higher scores All of these descriptions can be accessed in the software by selecting the Help button Results Window Once you have a list of trends that meet your search criteria you can drill down on the specifics of individual trade opportunities You are able to sort by any of the columns in the table to group your preferred trades together Columns Add Checked trades in y
59. which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information products or services System Failure Client understands and acknowledges that technical problems or other conditions may delay or prevent GECKO and or GECKO Customers from receiving software updates Gecko nor their partners shall not be liable for and clients agree not to hold or seek to hold Gecko or Gecko Partners liable for any technical problems system failures and or malfunctions communication line failures equipment or software failures and or malfunctions system access issues system 38 capacity issues high Internet traffic demand security breaches and unauthorized access that are beyond the reasonable control of Gecko or their partners and or any other similar computer problems and defects Gecko and Gecko s Partners agree to use best efforts to maintain the functioning of all system necessary programs but Gecko nor its partners represent warrant or guarantee that GECKO and or GECKO Customers will be able to access or use the Partner Programs at times or locations of GECKO and or GECKO Customers choosing or that Gecko Partners will have adequate capacity for the Gecko and or Gecko Partner Programs as a whole or in any geographic location Gecko does not represent warrant or guarantee that the Gecko or Gecko Partner Programs will provide uninterrupted and error free service Gecko does not make any warranties or guarantees express or implied
60. will attempt to perform in accordance to our advertisements for a period of three 3 days from the date of receipt If it does not perform to your expectation the only guarantee Gecko Software gives is a refund of the purchase price paid of the said software application This warranty is only good for a period of thirty 30 days from the date of purchase and only applies to This Product amp its corresponding expansion packs and plug ins this warranty does not apply to any accompanying educational materials or supplies which carries no warranty whatsoever This Product was designed for the intended use to be of a financial market educational resource only as a way to educate yourself to the normal seasonal trends and cycles created by past historical market action In no way can Gecko Software guarantee that markets will react in the future as they have in the past and therefore this tool is intended for reference purposes only and is only meant to be used as a guide to seasonal trends In no way is Gecko Software suggesting that you buy on the buy date and sell on the sell date The dates specified in the software are only intended as educational reference points for past trend beginnings and endings Gecko does not guarantee that any mathematical formulas are correct or that any data is correct or that any of the rules used to create the software are correct These are just our best guess and you as the licensee of the software agree not to
61. will repeat in the future When you dig for results the software looks for month symbol based trading patterns by calculating the following question for every trading day available in the year If enter on the first trading day of the month and exit on the third to the last trading day do find a pattern that wins historically The entry and exit dates aren t constrained to be in the same month In order to answer these questions and to look for patterns based on the days since the first of the month or before the end of the month the historical data is lined up so that the trading days for each month are always at the same offset from the beginning Because a month will have more trading days some years and less in other years we use a proprietary method of calculation to even up the It s through this secret formula that we are able to obtain such a high degree of accuracy over time beyond what anyone else has ever been able to achieve The software is divided into four steps Search Neural Network Portfolio and Accounting The Settings tab allows you make changes to the commodities currency pairs and or equities that will be included in the search tab The Education tab launches a web browser to the electronic education center Step 1 Search Each time you use Trade Miner you will need to dig for some results based on your criteria There are several parameters to change each with a different effect on the results The sof
62. with respect to Gecko or Gecko Partners Programs or their function including without limitation warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose Gecko nor their partners shall not be liable for any loss cost damage or other injury whether in contract or tort arising out of or caused in whole or in part by use of or reliance on the Gecko or Gecko Partner Programs or their content In no event will Gecko or any Gecko Partner be liable for any punitive consequential special or similar damages even if advised of the possibility of such damage If some jurisdictions do not allow the exclusion or limitation of liability for certain damages in such jurisdictions the liability of Gecko shall be limited in accordance with this Agreement to the extent permitted by law Gecko reserves the right to suspend service and deny access to any Gecko or Gecko Programs without prior notice during scheduled or unscheduled system maintenance or upgrading Accuracy of Information The content on Gecko Software amp This Products related websites is subject to change at any time without notice and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make software purchasing decisions not trading decisions Gecko Software Inc and its associated companies have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the information however does not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any loss or damage which may arise directly
63. wn in price over the selected day range For Example some stock trading accounts require special permissions to trade short So selecting only Bullish Trends will ensure that one would only see trends they are able to take Trading Period The next criterion is how long a trade would have to last to be considered a trend List trends that last at least V 20 trading day s but no more than V 60 trading days Mine atleast 8 years of history You may specify the minimum length of the trade in days If you select trends that last at least 20 trading days then TradeMiner will only show trends that last longer than 20 trading days If you would like to cap when a trend ends then the Maximum day parameter lets you type in any number of days as long as it exceeds your minimum trading day selected If a trade lasts longer than your maximum trading days then it will not be shown The years parameter allows you to limit or expand the number of years considered when looking for a pattern The minimum number of years to look back is 5 years Longer term patterns may be considered to be more reliable than a short term one On the other hand markets can change over time and greater number of years may ignore a more recently developed trend This is a minimum field if you are looking back 8 years you would see all trends that last 8 or more years Filtering Results There are two filters which help to remove redundant trades 7 Remove same symbol

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