community element model - Thomas Jefferson Planning District
Contents
1. i a 2 _ ar i a BR ME E a ee a 10 Step 5 Enter Socioeconomic Information This step is not required but highly recommended for model calibration and to establish a socioeconomic baseline for comparison Users enter socioeconomic information as labeled in columns E through I Total employment by work location including retail employment is entered in column E retail employment by work location is entered in column F school enrollment by school location is entered in column G total dwelling units single and multifamily are entered in column H and population is entered in column I Often socioeconomic information is available from trip generation input files Z data files used by a region s travel demand forecasting model or from the Census Bureau ibaan pee t be oe He pora pre aa ia ihe OE ae Ae E ECET mnb ahas 0 ce Rauw arag Tue Pag IE am a i m wi 2 Ti 134 i L 7 t 3 3 0 0 g 0 ti i ara Td i kzi E 5 1 i a a Gi a ir E 1 iJ T Z g g ii E g ig Ti jj T T 3 Ls di 0 J 6 pi T3 k i hE 33 Wi S44 L oO a 1 a 1 g praj Er 7 T 1 g H om i 7 i g 1 Ei i Gs g i3 ILE a P1 il 4 Sa T ard a 1 JJ az im rind ir P p w Lita a ao Fr y FJ z5 24 da i Fi a H 7a 0 iv y Ae LELI I Ea AWE FEE aw ak Wan Pe TT os a PR A iD i Fa PR FM FT i ir i stg Exe WOO AE t hk aS ee god reel peed Feed ad FATET rea ee ee cae 11 Step 6 Enter Commun2. ei CPi cirrus Sere marii ngai er Co Fiia Lard dhe Darai E Feina Commun y Sewer Diria 2 DEJE ijas pmm T Fas mala e ia T Unsri Himani Aia brenn conunity semet pigeons CE piisas Chsiyisaaie crrapuiy Pieris CTE m papai Couns eran seen bon CPi aah Arra TLP ro Pepe Coward daved padar et DEN qe EE P eqe bein ee ee eee ee ee pap hen cit or Pa para 2 ee H a is iia nacca a ere anion Jaca feeder hom Sept ie ese feat fecal fie cree ee ee Pol Fe mba e see R Amare SN COE a ST TSAO eth b ios aad i iir 5 Toe leas RTS mn SS LORS S Lite tee awe Gane fleets OW ALD sow The worksheet icon bar listed in column A of the Table of Contents worksheet is repeated on most of the other worksheets in the file Users point and click on these icons to go to different worksheets To get back to the Table of Contents from any of the worksheets point and click on the red TOC box located at the top of the worksheet icon bar The community element icon bar includes all of the preset elements defined for the Charlottesville Virginia region plus blank elements that can be defined by the user Users point and click on these icons to go to the different community element inventories The spreadsheet includes several macros that add alternatives and import and export information to Arcview Details of each of these macros are provided later in the manual Step 2 Review the Available Community Element Informatio
3. Actual and User defined alternative Conn ai reasonableness condition totals by oae y ranges community i i element type inventory links click a point estimates are to the right to switch to elements t inventories l wae canis Teg Ree Real Tela ig TR Pina us al il E ie ford agami EAF H SD at at ti Bor Mists HHE o a g a s TL lta o ll Ti Fial Asedemia RRI p g g D i ea am IFE Rias Seal Towa FST i 1 li D Fiia age FL D o o 1 Guilin PEJ D i Hi a fa m HES o o a E fi Comeran ACY Ld fi fi J mm j init kba Sih nm g D T 120 p Bs Co unity Eeboten kiigba GT o u g D oO XE D i dE element types Teiashen Wierd eae GHY 0 ao o o U oe m D 35 sbatin Ofra GOF i Hn a Satorbon Aedes GHS j 1 e BESS 1 Sabaton Ae ST o a 0 pa i w Em Oo zg Tisspan Fais IPE o o o s Pistan ra EY D i fi il Unban biri iT 2 0 a D II HE iN Hi biodiesel ies Lb o a 4 i H J iSi 0o bi Webean Federal UNE o a g D 0 bete We J JES H rho Pork UPE a D 11 LE o E i 100 lee Dee TE cE d P a a of 7 eE D y 1 1 CES 1 fi Percent difference between actual information and alternative condition model estimates Difference between actual information to alternative conditions model estimates Ratio of actual socioeconomic totals to land area 24 Calibration Step 3 Reducing Land
4. These inventories can be used as is or modified to reflect conditions in different regions ComPlan includes ten blank inventories that can be used to create additional community elements Users can access these blank elements by pointing and clicking on one of the CE1 through CE10 icons on the community element icon bar Toa et irai Eikka at sni a rne es ta 1a Step 4 Enter Area Information To estimate base and alternative conditions users must enter useable and vacant areas for each subarea described in more detail on the next page ComPlan also requires a conversion factor if the input areas are in units other than acres Area information is entered in the land use worksheet point and click on the actual land use icon The land use area data are entered in the white areas of the worksheet beginning at column F The user must convert the input land use categories to those used by the model if the categories differ Entering the land use codes in the red cells above each column does this The ComPlan land use categories and codes are listed on the next page The worksheet will calculate the useable developed and vacant area from the entered land use areas If land use areas are not available then total area must be entered in column E of the worksheet The model calculates useable and vacant area from the percent built shaded in green input entered in the CEi worksheet described in the next section SE y pem pr
5. Faral siika Fra beducteal mi Packs Wc Sion Coseeen mr Suburi bekndeal Sobarh ns piinia Birri b emi ria Suburi Or Sobumun Aarcarini Ssuburien Fetal Bansin Flack Dahri Dassen ibaa bait oral Liian belt iad uniae oan Aenea Urban Park Uan Gel CF 1 Uem Det CE T em Debra GE J Usa Delon LE i Bar EME RES BST EL ay EEK Hoy Ti EI EA HE Ei pai HEE Soy uT 7 ig LEE 4 e EF ez ea 34 Because of the changes to land use assumptions now point and click on the land use comparison icon The multifamily proportion is further from the target than before but still within reason Of course if this result is not acceptable additional adjustments can improve results even further Rya Aga od Fog Mow wie Sura Aamterta Fura Gerad Tomer Fail iisa Should iaie Pica Pet wReoeei on Faal Taepa ae Geinin kenia Tebeh rail cien Bimsbar Max uae Babris Chee Zsiaton Aemeerda Sheth Fee fi Birtist Fabi 35 Calibration Step 5 Changing Assigned Elements Yet another way to calibrate the ComPlan is to change community element assignments to subareas For reasons described in the Calibration Caveats section this adjustment may not be appropriate for subareas less than 31 acres The adjustment may also be inappropriate for larger areas for reasons described in the Caveats section Thus this type of calibration adjustment is recommended as a last step To make the adjustment point and click on the detaile
6. Po Tevsieped Hi Ce ee Ta T AEN T a aaa Te Ta Fa PR Ye a Pa anne RE TRE al 1 ie nee Go ee OO RE oe aS cmc Pushy lt a A meses EE he fe een Eunn et Prem A A or 15 Point and click on the Alternative Elements icon to review the allocation of useable land by community element for each alternative tested To delete an alternative from this worksheet highlight the column of the alternative by pointing and clicking on the column header in gray and use Excel s edit delete command In the example below to delete the ALT1 alternative click on the H column header then click on Edit in the top left menu for the pull down menu then click on Delete aante aanl ET TTET Finaal Lapi orat J fore eboedume Hami Puakeniod GAS Sua Slits EST Pulls eL fia hire P fod Preetiacedes RPE fire Commeetem MEY Turbas induction Subuhes yria ST Sibi kiama ge Siris ip SOF Siaha Peaki SAE iiaii Fd SRT Safwan Prka Tibebe Cosvesew Lihas lemdionad LET Li bbagdiro ti P Liha Fini ad Urban Fat fi 25 ire fr L pa i i al ait e t aprons Es SETORA Vda aana Bi r AET 16 MODEL CALIBRATION The Community Based Planning model is calibrated by comparing the base condition with actual information Calibration adjustments are made to either the community elements assigned to each subarea or to the community element inventories This section describes the calibr
7. To delete an alternative from this worksheet highlight the column of the alternative by pointing and clicking on the column header in gray and use Excel s edit delete command In the example below to delete the ALT1 alternative click on the G column header then click on Edit in the top left menu for the pull down menu then click on Delete AED eed Pa te Se z alla Oa Bet ak 2 Rho che Tjan e TERS ee WA Eo ae Lab CILA ia oe coer arene a C tt Biek jaz J i M E T LAAJ ARERAAARSRA a te i i TERE as Tea TT 01 ine tee Gh ante 3 OO bl E ns fo hk Sree Bist demiemicny ari green ITER or theniee Paria j T me E EE EE Ehia ee En Eg lei a SO a 14 Point and click on the Alternatives Review icon to review the results of the analysis The spreadsheet automatically labels each alternative according to the name entered in the CEi worksheet Comparisons can then be made among alternatives and to the existing and base conditions To delete an alternative from this worksheet highlight the columns of the alternative by pointing and clicking on the column headers in gray and use Excel s edit delete command In the example below to delete the ALT1 alternative click on the L and M column headers then click on Edit in the top left menu for the pull down menu then click on Delete Tree raira PPL WN RIAN Connivnal in Prie apaa wkafpoytelde Emp Por dcr
8. Use Differences The land use comparison worksheet presents actual and base condition differences by land use categories and by community elements Each community element has two rows the top or darker row indicating actual condition proportions and the bottom or lighter row indicating base condition proportions If there are significant differences in the proportions for a community element point and click on the community element code to go to the inventory worksheet For example the figure below indicates the suburban residential element is over representing right of way ROW and over representing multifamily use MF To change these proportions in the community element inventory click and point on the suburban residential code SRS Plural Agifes GOTO Pum Benderi Ra Fral Tran Bpa iagi Ruai wiara Rud Puii eram Raid Compara Suburban tinrin Euta rein Subhas Miah ETET E M Suburtar Orodes Djar Auai 25 The proportions of land uses are shown in column F of the community element inventories As shown in the summary on the previous page and in column F below 17 percent of land in suburban residential elements is assumed to be right of way higher than the actual proportion of 13 percent and seven percent is assumed to be multifamily lower than the actual proportion of 12 percent The right of way proportion in this example is lowered by reducing either the street widths column Q or more appropriately shortenin
9. also provides absolute and percent differences between actual and estimated socioeconomic characteristics highlighting in red those elements where differences exceed reasonableness ranges defined by the user Actual totals and base estimates for community elements are shown to the right of the comparisons 2 ah te ee i eee thet cele Peet ex re E nar e Lanan a m 7 S E E E E E Tisis D Fini Ager ANE Rural Baii Aina Fiirhnial Paced Frai lran Pe iii tines 2 Aa ladair Suberber Eisd GHT Bebra Pies BPE Bukuria Cerner Soe Unter tngifubone at IEE Uim Hor um URE JINE Libas Feidend ial ihi Fon Ling Cela CE teat Dulieed CE 2 GEJ Laer Leteed CE 3 Lier Cate CE a CE AC WTAE TE tains 2 tues Gy pean wooy Taah we Bw i ee iii j ri se ni j alely or a aste ei eae ih Ton 21 Alternative ComPlan Generated Estimates ComPlan also generates detailed comparisons of alternative scenarios with actual conditions The subarea alternative information is used to generate the regional summaries While these comparisons should not be used for calibration they are available for review Like the base condition the model calculates alternative conditions based on the developable acreage in each subarea the alternative community element assigned to the subarea column F in the CEi worksheet and the development characteristics for the communit
10. can enter ranges in the red cells above the comparisons to highlight subareas in red where ratios are higher than expected For example the ComPlan highlights those instances where the actual employment exceeds the 40 employees per acre entered in cell P7 The ComPlan also compares the absolute and percentage differences between actual conditions and model estimates Again the user can set ranges at the top of each comparison column 7 Ww we oe ae 2D o Tip 29 17 O06 G0 An a Tew es OT 19 239 ji 05 aiii thaj SS el 1 i J1 OF O08 om ni Pai DIE ar ait om de 2 Ciipeticre 10 Eh pester SLES ettsted eusasieteenes coke 23 Alternative Socioeconomic Estimates by Community Elements this worksheet calculates socioeconomic totals by community elements rather than subareas It provides a more reasonable basis for comparison and should be used for calibrating the ComPlan It presents several summaries the first being the ratio of socioeconomic characteristics to useable land The use can enter a reasonableness range at the top of each column that highlights all elements exceeding the expected range The ComPlan also provides absolute and percent differences between actual and estimated socioeconomic characteristics highlighting in red those elements where differences exceed reasonableness ranges defined by the user Actual totals and base estimates for community elements are shown to the right of the comparisons
11. 19 from 1 800 feet to 1 000 feet This adjustment brings the right of way proportion in line with the actual proportion and reduces the estimated useable area to within 2 000 square feet of the element target 28 After making the adjustment point and click on the worksheet icon to review the land use comparison In the example the adjustments improve the land use proportions for the right of way and multifamily types It should be noted that modifications to any of the inventory inputs should be reasonable For instance building land use ratios for multifamily uses typically range from five to twenty percent Having to adjusting ratios beyond such reasonableness ranges suggests that another variable is the culprit for differences Rya Aga od Foe Mion wie Ghai Aemiurta Fal Grad Tos Fiia Wage Should ful Fini Petoheoeei on Fogg Teraa fe Geinin Petunia Seber rail cio Gussie Mustige F Babris Chee Zsiaton Hemisris Sheen Ar D Sulster Pati SFE 29 Calibration Step 4 Reducing Socioeconomic Differences Calibrating the model to improve the differences between actual and base socioeconomic results is similar to the land use step described in the previous pages The first step is reviewing the regional socioeconomic totals in the bottom right tables of the regional summary RS worksheet If there are significant differences then point and click on the base summary icon button to go to the base summary worksheet The w
12. A Pi TOs AT SITE LP Fi s ATADI IRU Ft ia ATADTE LEi P TAME Li m ATA iii iii STRODE Pi ar m a a Ji if EH EE ETI i bf anne S AOR AE oa eS f iu l rete FTES lw hen fone giit inns ORL ERE ve 12 Step 7 Review Regional Summary ComPlan presents information on three conditions actual base and alternative The actual condition is an inventory of existing land use and or socioeconomic conditions entered by the user The model generates the base condition with user defined assumptions about each subarea s current community element This base information is compared against the actual information to calibrate the model details about model calibration are provided in the Calibration section of this manual If actual data are not available the user can skip the calibration step and use the model for alternatives testing The model can generate a number of alternative scenarios with user defined assumptions about future community elements for each subarea The user can view a regional summary of these three conditions by pointing and clicking on the RS icon on the worksheet icon bar The left hand table in the regional summary indicates how the region is proportioned among community elements under the base and alternative scenarios and the table to the right presents actual base and alternative land use and socioeconomic totals E errea ayei EmA he Se gE
13. ComPlan USER S MANUAL Beta Version INTRODUCTION The community based planning model ComPlan estimates regional land development potential using prototypical community elements This first version of the ComPlan is developed in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet with links to ARCVIEW geographic information system GIS software ComPlan is funded by a Transportation and Community and System Preservation TCSP grant from the Federal Highway Administration The grant help fund the Eastern Area Planning Initiative conducted by the Thomas Jefferson Planning District Commission located in Charlottesville Virginia This version of ComPlan is available through FHWA to Metropolitan Planning Organizations MPOs and other agencies This User s Manual presents an overview of ComPlan and instructions for its use The Manual describes ComPlan s structure how to input needed information how to use the model to test alternatives and calibration steps The manual also describes the linkages between the spreadsheet and ArcView MODEL STRUCTURE ComPlan relies on prototypical community definitions community elements to create regional land development patterns and the resulting land use building and socioeconomic characteristics of those patterns Each community element is defined by a graphic illustration of a quarter mile diameter area and by a set of land use infrastructure and socioeconomic data Figure 1 illustrates an element graphic and Figur
14. MI ramy iara iia s r a i t AT sda i 1 r P OHSA i a p Wg a a ae yA P iain N BA cette a am E mer ae DOOR AE amp 4 4 e eee e TAT ET D e e ee SSS Step 3 Review Update and or Create Community Element Inventories Each community element includes an inventory that numerically describes the characteristics of the element The inventories include land use types and areas building types and areas roadway and parking areas and socioeconomic ratios Each inventory automatically calculates areas and socioeconomic totals based on user entries in the blue shaded cells For example once a user enters the number of single family dwelling units in cell K7 and the average floor area in cell L7 the spreadsheet calculates the total floor footprint area of single family dwellings cell M7 Entering the average number of floors in cell N7 calculates the total building area cell O7 The total floor area in cell M7 becomes a key input for the land use area The user enters the footprint land area ratio in cell G7 to estimate the total square feet devoted to the land use cell D7 and the percentage of the total element area devoted to that use cell E7 The inventory worksheet calculates total area as the user enters information The totals must closely match the area of a quarter mile diameter circle 1 368 478 square feet or 31 42 acres The worksheet calculates the difference between the estimated and target area in cell D28 An exact mat
15. TTING STARTED Step 1 Go to the Table of Contents ComPlan uses a number of pages worksheets in EXCEL The file name is ce x s and it should be located with other ComPlan related files in the Ce directory off of the root directory The easiest way to navigate among the worksheets is to go to the Table of Contents worksheet shown below Beets Poel Col a Bee k ee pi e pomi Pye jone paa ion iie A LF Lae tee D a rcs t ft Bee ek wa eee A OF Cae Uem rimed ari es nteromios by niama Duim y ELEMENT MEST ONES Liner prias ninss eee donee bry echo Rerissmbaj laaj ges iva Wp ubia i Uii Tig Lage a law 5 Babiha chae Model granatai bode laai uie prbmalsn Ey subse fl Per deco biria Greed bo ose ee by ue mian BUDE Coenen r acto cerddiere venue bans coreifion stbri Rl Pewcertal Cofiece Dr re fiina OF masim of echis corti eras bee cosdehes surroiss RA Reswental high Cerda h Rk Aasdanial tiskarja Darsip MA Ean A S m Fanifuebal Le Deen Tie secs hehe perai diin idee bared cee ie bry Goo Mt bbl Lb hao Shawl lans biridi geri ales poceeecrere purren by coh et Comrercai sence Lee D comgencon vi priua secu leds cece soir U tre mier IR keiajinl geburhen ot DG Culley Carpin na Bardi Of chal ber pod Se Hers PF Pabiitennan ete Anh Sarheary ol coeruady atii rerio PaE Pad Cais Ups dete pane aed alee coeds sere ST Sera Ten Saad Ahaaa LILA cove oneri sierra we adage ine AE Agacees meri
16. ation steps As described in the previous section users can enter land use and socioeconomic information into ComPlan to reflect actual conditions ComPlan estimates a base condition using assumptions about average land use and socioeconomic conditions in each community element and how those elements are located in the study area This estimate of development characteristics in the base condition is compared with actual information to determine the predictive accuracy of the ComPlan Calibration Caveats Users should be aware of several calibration limitations First calibration is not meaningful at small geographic areas Second urban areas are complex and varied and attempting to apply averages is difficult The goal of calibration is to develop a reasonably accurate reflection of urban characteristics so that future year estimates are within reason Third a region or locality may want completely new development patterns not an extrapolation of past patterns In such cases calibration is useful only in comparing how a new pattern differs from a continuation of existing patterns Calibration and Scale Each community element inventory reflects typical conditions of a 31 acre area In nearly all cases an area of this size includes a number of parcels each having a unique building and use Comparing a specific parcel within the 31 acre area to the average characteristics of the area will not yield meaningful insights Therefore calibration do
17. ble in the ComPlan spreadsheet to exchange information with ArcView CTL E press the control and E keys simultaneously to invoke a macro that exports the list of subareas traffic analysis zones and block aggregate areas and community assignment codes in the CEi worksheet to ArcView This macro stores this information in a file named cei2dbf dbf that is read by a script in ArcView that imports this information described later There will be several prompts from Excel about saving the file Answer yes to each prompt to export the information CTL I press the control and I keys simultaneously to invoke a macro that imports the list of subareas and community assignment codes from ArcView to the CEi worksheet This macro looks for the cei2xls dbf file that is created by the export script in ArcView described later CTL P press the control and P keys simultaneously to invoke a macro that exports the community element employment and population density parameters from the CEs worksheet to the ce_def dbf file read by a script in ArcView that imports the parameters described later Answer yes to each of the file save prompts from Excel as it completes the macro steps Each of these macros is listed at the bottom of the ComPlan table of contents 41 The following scripts are available in ArcView to exchange information with the ComPlan spreadsheet E press the E button at the top of the screen to invoke an ArcView script that export
18. ch is not necessary but users should modify inputs until the calculated area is within five percent of the target a difference of less than 68 000 square feet ET Meore Bec CE ee ob Roe oe ee ee oe n Boa sheet 3 aS Bee aa ee A O O ee pa d Begia bais g ilis Sain Ah aree i pi a bian d aaa J S Ahi Parte fui ia i at WOODA T 4 4 s eee Pep EPP CLERI Elien Mim n Eg Cente SL EA To the right of the land use and building area columns the user enters information about parking for each land use on site parking common parking parking not associated with a site and roadways The key parking inputs are the number of parking spaces column P the average area of each space including access driveway areas column Q and the number of parking floors for parking garages column S Socioeconomic characteristics are to the far right of the inventory table The user enters the number of persons per dwelling unit column U and the ratio of employees per 1 000 square feet of gross building area column W Users are not limited to entering information into the blue shaded cells of the inventory However information entered into the non blue cells will replace a calculation making it more difficult to update the tables mab THII urban Mixed use Preset and Blank Inventories As noted above the current version of ComPlan includes community element inventories for the Charlottesville Virginia region
19. d base comparison icon and check results by subareas focusing on percentage rather than absolute differences In the example below the actual number of dwelling units in all of the suburban residential subareas highlighted is higher than the base estimate Because the suburban residential element is calibrated at a regional level these results indicate other areas of the region have consistently lower densities This is somewhat expected because the subareas highlighted below are relatively close to downtown Charlottesville 36 The urban residential element assumes higher densities than the suburban residential element so the model s performance for subareas 71 through 79 may be improved by changing the assigned community element To do this point and click on the CEi icon and change the base codes column E for subareas 71 through 79 from SRS suburban residential to URS urban residential as shown on the screen below 37 To check results point and click on the detailed base comparison icon and review results for subareas 71 through 79 The differences between actual versus estimated dwelling units have decreased but the differences between actual versus estimated employees have increased dramatically This suggests that subareas 71 through 79 are comparable to the urban residential element in some ways and to the suburban residential element on others To improve calibration results anew community element could be created
20. e 2 illustrates the associated data The model includes a set of elements developed for the Eastern Area Planning Initiative but the user is able to modify these elements or create new elements to match existing community types or to reflect desired community elements Community elements are assigned to subareas defined by the user A combination of traffic analysis zones TAZ s and Census blocks are used for the Eastern Area Planning Initiative ComPlan calculates the development potential for each subarea by multiplying each subarea s net developable acreage by the data associated with the subarea s assigned community element To estimate alternative land development or redevelopment potential users reassign the subarea s community element and the model calculates new totals Users calibrate ComPlan by comparing the actual land use acreage and socioeconomic totals with those estimated by the model This calibration step is recommended if actual land use and or socioeconomic data are available Calibration is not required if existing data are not available This first version of ComPlan is available in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet with macros that import and export dBASE files that link with ArcView so users can map and spatially summarize the data These dBASE files are not necessary to use the ComPlan THOMAS JEFFERSON PLANNING DISTRIGT EASTERN PLANING IMITATIVE Community Element Inventory Figure 1 Community Element Plan GE
21. e for land development in each subarea This area nets out land unfit for development because of environmental historical or policy reasons Developed area dAREA the amount of useable area currently developed including area that is used for parks public open space agriculture and forestry This information is calculated with user entered land use data or with the BUILT information entered in the CEi worksheet If developed and vacant land use data are entered by the user for a subarea the BUILT input for that subarea must be 100 to avoid double counting vacant area Vacant area VAREA the amount of developable area that is not currently developed This is the difference between useable area uAREA and developed area dAREA If actual vacant land data are not available the model calculates vacant land using the reciprocal of the BUILT estimate Conversion factor this factor converts the measurement units for the input data into acres The input areas are divided by the conversion factor so the user must enter the factor accordingly The Charlottesville area inputs are measured in square meters and there are 4 079 square meters in an acre The model divides the total square meters calculated from the Charlottesville input data by the conversion factor entered in cell B6 to calculate the uAREA dAREA and vAREA results If the input information had been square miles the reciprocal of 640 the number of acres i
22. ea Beaia iaia ok ee a hese ee a See T 0 ee TEES ex wa eK ered nse ed lo Seco ey Pom ta eS nN ee EN Tehowet reed in baha ibe carpe guia au m jbj CE E E T Tite AI ARDA ADCF Con OAT Ey ETRE IHO eoe ODES orc TEJ MA Lt git ii g mall z 55 75 F hey Tid g F 3 EE G m li 0 D T o oot is G ti cap a i Pii fi iHi p a eS ri ck wE a 5 AE oO ty f CES irim g wala i g TE a o iy fy iva Ih 9 Ur peic g o f H tae ay oTi di E grm 1E EN Ez ga o mi Lis Ba i5 D HH ti Tira es ead Bs ci Ta i 5 Ec i 1144 o i Tii laa Ca ri TH oO i T51 a oO ae pith ES iT 4 Bn G m oO TIEU Tai Oo TE mi LIFES ATG 7 z T ri 0 e ae a GFE l RSTI 3 am 5 a s oa 1 ATi a G Sa D a aa T E mg 4s 155 ET f a ha mE RT Ses a cara aati m 04 Lees a T aaa Lt mo ECE mt US eli 5 rT mm 774s nS D TEIE B ms Le i Ee p En 8 a FE wE ay z i za J a By ee EI BRE ri ards 1 0G 3 i Life are o Eraka EEI ina La djag p ab F BREIL D pi ii D au o ha E aS Laird ahir Pi i EE i Au H 1454 i IHE TETTI D A arty m ca ma pi H Weta Fi i ei aoe pe oe a ae eel eo ee SOO AD oe a eS SS et S ea Re S Co Pe Fmah mn 5 ty EF tv S Sh em Eun to lei OS AE E Required Area Inputs ComPlan requires area information for each of the defined subareas to estimate land consumption The user must provide the following information Useable area uAREA the total area that is suitabl
23. ee Lipas Fegan al liisa Fii PARERS inbred Py Dinama rel dil Puti opm SEREERE mi ray 7 BERER E 3 E DE pa Be gt EO Ter a FE RE owe ADORA E SABEREM O PEOLE ET O ENE i 18 Calibration Step 1 Entering Actual Information To calibrate the model or compare alternative conditions to actual conditions users enter land use and socioeconomic information by subareas Details of entering data are provided in Steps 4 and 5 in the Getting Started section Undevelopable developable and vacant areas by subarea are required model inputs described in more detail on page 9 of this manual Calibration Step 2 Generating Base Conditions Estimates As noted above the model estimates a base condition based on the developable acreage in each subarea the community element assigned to the subarea and the development characteristics for the community element The base condition estimates calculated by ComPlan are Base Land use Estimates this worksheet calculates land use areas based on user defined community element assumptions for each subarea The model multiplies the community element land use inventory inputs by the net developable acreage in each subarea to calculate how the subarea is developed For example subarea one row 11 is assumed to be an urban mixed use UMX element The UMX element assumes that a certain percentage of the total area is devoted to single family SF uses ComPlan multi
24. es not make sense for areas smaller than 31 acres Furthermore because of the complexity of urban areas comparisons of subareas are difficult even if they are the size of a community element around 31 acres If the study area is roughly equivalent to the size of a community element 31 acres or the study area includes only one subarea of a given community element then calibration is possible However if a study area includes several subareas of a given community element then calibration becomes more difficult because of the nuances among similarly classified developments A shopping center in one part of a region classified as a suburban retail in the ComPlan s preset elements will have similar but not exactly the same characteristics as another shopping center located elsewhere in the region If the differences between development types assumed to be the same community element are significant enough to cause calibration problems then users might want to create another community element to distinguish between these areas Calibration Steps To begin calibration information for the actual condition is entered into the model This includes both land use and socioeconomic information The next step is assigning community elements to subareas for the base condition Step three is reviewing 17 differences between the actual and base condition and making adjustments to minimize the differences These model set up steps are described in de
25. for these subareas however there is a trade off between improving calibration results and model complexity to consider 38 Calibrating with Incomplete Data Calibration is possible if only some of the actual land use or socioeconomic data are available In Metropolitan Planning Organization MPO areas population and employment data are available by subareas traffic analysis zones Population and dwelling unit information is also available from the Census Therefore socioeconomic data are available to all areas and provide a reasonable basis for calibration Land use data are not as readily available In the Charlottesville region land use data are only available from the City of Charlottesville yet the study area extended far beyond the city s boundaries Nevertheless calibration was possible for those elements assigned to subareas within Charlottesville If no land use data are available for calibration the model will input base condition estimates in the actual condition If data are available for only portions of the study area the model will use actual data where available and base condition estimates for the remaining areas Thus actual results will automatically match base results where no data are available and approximate base results when limited data are available The more available data there is the greater the likelihood that there are differences between the actual and base conditions 39 ARCVIEW ArcView is a pro
26. g the length of streets column P Increasing the number of units column K the average floor area column L or the ratio of building area to land area column G are ways to increase the multifamily proportion 26 Modifying the community element inputs for any of the land use categories will change the proportions for all categories not just the target categories and the overall useable area Therefore adjustments usually require several iterations Also changes to building areas not only influence land areas they change socioeconomic results as well For example increasing the number of multifamily units will increase the multifamily population as well as the land allocated to the multifamily uses The first calibration steps should focus on modifying those community element inputs that isolate land use proportions building to land area ratios and infrastructure inputs The first adjustment in the example is to the building land area ratio changed from 10 to six percent This adjustment increases total multifamily area from 2 3 to 3 83 acres and nears the target of 12 percent However in also increases the total useable area to 65 718 feet over the total element area target shown in the red box at the bottom of the inventory The next step is changing road widths to reduce both the right of way proportion and the overall useable area 27 The second adjustment in the example is reducing the length of major streets in cell P
27. he base estimate of dwelling units for the suburban residential element is eight percent lower than the actual number of units so the number of dwelling units assumed by the element must be increased from 40 to 43 Because the multifamily land use proportion was low in the land use calibration step it makes sense to add the units to the multifamily units category This will increase the building area which will increase the land area unless the building land ratio is also increased Increasing the number of multifamily units results in a multifamily land use proportion that is too high 14 8 percent versus a target of 12 percent and a total useable area that is over 90 000 square feet too much 32 Increasing the building to land ratio from six percent back to the 10 percent initially assumed compensates for the over adjustment caused by the increase in multifamily units The amount of useable area is now within 5 051 square feet very close to the target and the proportion of multifamily land is now around 10 percent lower than the target but reasonable 33 Point and click on the socioeconomic comparison icon to check the socioeconomic results of these changes The estimated number of dwelling units for the suburban residential communities is now only one percent lower than the actual number of units as compared to eight percent lower using the initial assumptions Soe te Burd Agu const Runi Hashar Rpa Rriienial Paral grat Tiam
28. int and click on one of the community elements in the dialogue box then point and click on the CE Assign button The selected subareas will change to the color of the new community element 44 In the example below several of the subareas in Greene County are changed to the suburban residential moderate density element and now have a burnt orange color The change updated the supporting database which can be checked by pointing and clicking on the Summary button in the community element dialogue box In the base case of the community element assignments shown in the screen on page 43 there are 17 suburban residential moderate SRM elements in the region with a total population of 27 911 and employment of 4 943 In the modified version shown below there are now 33 SRM subareas with a total population of 139 979 and employment of 17 563 45 Any changes to the community element assignments can then be exported to the ComPlan spreadsheet using the E export button at the top of the ArcView screen then invoking the import macro in the spreadsheet by pressing the CTL and I keys simultaneously The highlighted rows below are the subareas changed in ArcView and imported to the spreadsheet 46 Regional summaries and comparisons can than be made of alternatives in the spreadsheet by pressing the CTL and A keys The Test alternative in the screen below reflects the changes made in Greene County using ArcView The regional populatio
29. ity Element Assumptions Users must define community elements for the base condition in the community element input CEi worksheet The user enters the subarea identifier in column D of the worksheet and the assumed community element in column E The code for each community element is listed in the community element icon bar located to the left of the data entry area The user enters a three letter code such as UMX for urban mixed use next to the subarea identifier and the model automatically calculates the base land use and socioeconomic conditions for that subarea To create an alternative scenario the user enters a different three letter code in column F of the worksheet where changes are expected If the user wants to use actual data for a subarea in the alternative scenario rather than model estimated information SQ status quo is entered for that subarea Percent built information is entered in column G These percentages calculate developed and vacant land area if actual land information is not entered into the model The percent entered is an estimate of how much of the subarea is developed its reciprocal is an estimate of vacant land One hundred 100 percent is entered if actual vacant land data are entered into the model The model currently assumes that agricultural forested areas are developed so these areas should not be entered as vacant land cfs See are Feil i Ali Hamn r bieti lar CE Ajan U ATAMI UF
30. n Community elements are the building blocks of ComPlan The model needs community element information before it can be calibrated or test alternatives ComPlan currently includes community element inventories for eastern part of the Thomas Jefferson Planning District Charlottesville Virginia and the Counties of Albemarle Greene Louisa and Fluvana The community element summary worksheet CEs on the worksheet icon bar summarizes the characteristics for each of the Charlottesville area elements including the distribution of land uses among several land use types socioeconomic characteristics and key ratios Each inventory covers a quarter mile diameter area the maximum walking distance acceptable to most people Detailed information for each of the community elements is found by pointing and clicking on the boxes listed in the community element icon bar It should be noted that users could modify any of the preset elements or create up to ten additional community elements approximately 30 Community Elements within the existing template Users can add as many new elements as needed by copying a blank inventory template into new worksheets Gk Be Me eed inie Hele De Bes ls She rele J3337 7 395539333539993 EES faa bE JJ EL iN 18 Pii mmer per HH zi aa 25 re Pirisen oer 000 ri onj am s 1 Ha om rja SF design Jace SH Hi amy i il 10 1
31. n a square mile would have been entered ComPlan Land Use Categories ComPlan uses the following land use categories Entered land use data must be translated into one of these categories Single family residential SF Multifamily residential MF Offices OFC Commercial retail COM Cultural Civic CULT Government institutional INST Industrial IND Common parking PRKing Streets right of way ROW Public open space PUOPEN Parks playfields PARK Agriculture forest AGF Vacant VAC Permanently vacant ENV Miscellaneous Misc Specific definitions for these land use categories are up to the user The only requirement is that definitions be consistent For example an office retail building can be coded as either office or retail but once coded it must be coded the same way throughout the model Reclassified Land use this worksheet calculates land areas by the land use categories used in the community element inventories and listed on the previous page Areas by land use categories are not necessary to run the model nor is a complete set of data needed for calibration or to develop comparisons ComPlan requires a conversion factor if the input areas are in units other than acres entered in cell B6 of the worksheet The land use categories at the top of the worksheet are the ComPlan defined land uses and the totals in each column indicate how the input land use areas are aggregated by the model
32. n assigns a highlighted record in the toolbox window to a selected subarea or subareas on the map Before pressing this button point and click on the select button to the right of the CE Assign button denoted with a box graphic and select one or more subareas to change To select more than one subarea hold the shift key down as you point on each subarea Next point and click on one of the elements listed in the toolbox window Finally point and click on the CE Assign button The selected areas should now be in the same color shown on the legend as the selected element Summary this button presents summary statistics for the region or a selected set of subareas A summary pop window lists the community elements in the selected subareas and the total population and employment for the selected area Select CE records this button selects all subareas for a community type To use the button select one of the community elements in the window then point and click on the button The map then highlights all subareas of the selected type Conny Emens Model EACE iie oE eS e e j ti g Fee BOUTIER w 43 Creating Alternatives in ArcView To change any of the community elements point and click on the selection button with a square icon in the community dialogue box Next point and click on any one of the subareas in the region or to select a group of subareas use the mouse to create a box around those subareas to change Po
33. n potential increases from nearly 190 000 under the Base case to over 297 000 in the Test alternative and the total employment potential increases from around 110 000 to around 118 000 The changes upgraded rural residential and agricultural subareas in Greene County to moderate suburban residential development so the increases in population and employment potentials are as expected REGIA POPULATHIH Denira Leis iia Papiria Pp Devallngn par Ac Erop Parc Po Devsieped 47 WHERE TO GET HELP The Renaissance Planning Group developed this beta version of ComPlan E mail questions about the model to gduke citiesthatwork com 48
34. orksheet compares socioeconomic information total employment retail school enrollment dwelling units and population at the community element level To modify community element inventory inputs so that base conditions more closely match actual conditions point and click on the code of the community element to adjust Focus on the percent rather than absolute differences during calibration In the percent difference comparison below model estimated suburban residential dwelling units are noticeably lower 6 than actual units To reduce the difference point and click on the SRS code tum Lies SLi Aimi Agee Bar Mini Waher EHI Rya Rmania RES Fira Baat Then BET Faika EL Fal behiai E ai Poko deco EPE man Cemi RGY Suburi pa baked Suharto binasa ET Biberin biisii Sh Subuan es Gor Sober Aescerial JEG Lyhr broieeal i Leen bi ead inan AT Uam Aerie LS Urban Park LEK Um Tete CF 1 GEL Lew Dele CES G2 ew 30 As with the land use adjustments the first socioeconomic calibration steps should focus on those variables that change socioeconomic estimates only persons per dwelling unit in column U and employees per 1 000 square feet in column W In the example described above the percentage of dwelling units is low for the suburban residential category which can only be improved by increasing the number of dwelling units in column K This change will affect land use as well as socioeconomic results Pen eo ES 31 T
35. plies this percentage by the total developable area cell c11 to estimate the single family area in cell J11 Ele Be yee Feet Pirmat Ba an Yew Si alt Dae Sa ke i au E li i o d P I i a P o li D a i i L 2 ie D ii D 1 0 O g i ti a G i i 1 4 i I m 0 a p a i 1 1 7 e D q D a a i L 18 i g o a t i 4 li o D i i D i i Ei o a i 4 i 1 a 4 Ti 1 L a d 2 3 a i Ez a 7 19 i it 2 i i 1 pil Lt Lt a Pr a 1 7 amp a i 4 a q a qa a i i F a I 5 l a 2 6 a l g a P F E a i 19 I 4 J 4 ar O ii Zz 14 T 2 3 1 m o oO 3 ey a 1 J amp Fi d o a BE mm a a a T a r pi i Li T pi I I 5 10 5 4 T i it El P a 16 i E Fi 4 T ii q D it 2 i r G Ti o 5 3 4 a 4 T 44 a L i Lien C is ene ete GH if BeTa ape SOO AE ET eS Roe i Feah j l l Hn EAEE Ea ae Ae e E En Ein Eo r cai 19 Base Socioeconomic Estimates this worksheet calculates socioeconomic totals for subareas based on the assumed community element type from the CEi worksheet the amount of useable area in the subarea and socioeconomic ratios from the community element inventories listed at the top of the worksheet The worksheet also makes several comparisons The first checks the reasonableness of input data by calculating the ratios of socioeconomic variables to useable land area Users can enter ranges in the red cells abo
36. prietary geographic information system GIS software package that integrates electronic maps with databases While the ComPlan spreadsheet is designed to work with or without the ArcView GIS software package it is helpful to make community element assignments using ArcView To use ArcView you must have the ArcView software installed and the ComPlan files located in the CE directory To invoke the ArcView information for the Eastern Planning Initiative in the Charlottesville region double click on the ce apr file icon in Windows Explorer software or on the ArcView link at the bottom of the table of contents page in the ComPlan spreadsheet The following screen will appear an SALOME de oli Eg Raa EO ar ae The Community Elements dialogue box to the left of the screen lists all available community elements in the leftmost column the average number of employees per acre in the second column and the average number of people per acre in the third column Several buttons below the element data are available to select and assign elements to the subarea map on the right of the screen The legend in the middle of the screen indicates the color for each community element The map on the right of the screen shows the community element assignments The buttons above the map help import export and update community element assignments and parameters 40 Exchanging Information between ComPlan spreadsheet and ArcView The following macros are availa
37. s a list of subareas and community element assignments to a file named ce2xls dbf This file is read by the community element import function in the ComPlan spreadsheet the CTL I macro I press the I button at the top of the screen to invoke a script that imports a list of subareas and community element assignments from a file named ce2dbf dbf This file is created by the community element export function in the ComPlan spreadsheet the CTL E macro V press the V button at the top of the ArcView screen to invoke a script that imports the population and employment densities listed in Community Elements toolbox to the left of the map from a file named ce_def dbf This file is created by the community element parameter export function in the ComPlan spreadsheet the CTL P macro C press the C button after importing any new information into ArcView to recalculate the information and Daiki the ae ia Pe lea uel Tio EE eee ee eee een pia Ce Bee ELI T this button does not import or export files rather it turns on or off the table of contents legend that lists the colors of the community element to the left of the map 42 Community Element Dialogue Box The Community Element dialogue box located to the left of the screen provides a list of the currently available community elements in the window at the top of the box and the following buttons that invoke scripts at the bottom of the box CE Assign this butto
38. tail at the beginning of this manual ComPlan is calibrated by adjusting either community element inventory inputs or the community element assignments under the base condition The Regional Summary RS icon on the icon bar compares actual to base conditions For calibration make sure that a d is entered in cell J33 highlighted in red in the bottom right of the Regional Summary worksheet This calculates areas in the base condition using developed acreage dAREA rather than useable acreage uAREA Entering a u in cell J33 changes the areas in the base calculation from developed acreage to useable acreage which provides a baseline estimate of the development potential that may be of value for alternatives testing The land use distributions in the top right worksheet table and the socioeconomic totals in the lower right worksheet tables compare actual and base condition ComPlan provides more detailed land use and socioeconomic comparisons shown on the following pages if the regional comparison indicates significant differences On wae aes ae oo CTY Ei eT OS Te FRC LARI I 5 ke tes E agh beara iby beheld fice Sem Cufon Cra Gay Slag ral Ll Sus Om Riig Aa ara Fura bia sd ir Hoa Poodsrinl Sud Sorell Toeri Purl iia Ruas behead Aurel Free Ratan fie Conse em Bubuhan incduninal Subutes pettuecral Setecton bardu Subhas OFC Sada Pld eked dl Sabra Phad Saban l eta obese Levee en Urias het ore ihig ble e
39. ve the comparisons to highlight subareas in red where ratios are higher than expected For example ComPlan highlights those instances where the actual employment exceeds the 40 employees per acre entered in cell P7 The ComPlan also compares the absolute and percentage differences between actual conditions and model estimates Again the user can set ranges at the top of each comparison column 3 a4 E j Hi HRS H 1 awe ae To e Ciipesticre 2 OF OG GI OTF OT Doe om I EN petcre CLES Bi BE ee eee eee eee i T EVERA TB i am GR phi nw iri iTi am om t fede 2 onon bteceooo0 rer ose sooo aoe It should be noted that differences are expected when subareas are smaller than the areas assumed in the community element inventories 31 acres or when the subarea is not completely developed The Calibration Caveats section of this manual provides more information on why this is so Because of this the model also provides regional comparisons 20 Base Socioeconomic Estimates by Community Element this worksheet calculates socioeconomic totals by community elements rather than subareas It provides a more reasonable basis for comparison and is a more appropriate scale for model calibration It presents several summaries the first being the ratio of socioeconomic characteristics to useable land The use can enter a reasonableness range at the top of each column that highlights all elements exceeding the expected range ComPlan
40. y element The alternative condition information calculated by ComPlan includes Alternative Land use Estimates this worksheet calculates land use estimates based on user defined community element assumptions for each subarea The model multiplies the community element land use inventory inputs by the net developable acreage in each subarea to estimate how the subarea is developed For example subarea one row 11 is assumed to be an urban mixed use UMX community element type The UMX element assumes that a certain percentage of the total area is devoted to single family SF uses The ComPlan multiplies this percentage by the total developable area cell c11 to estimate the single family area cell J11 GS hohe Be erwin Sse ee eases oe Sern rain ewe esha Be Ke eS EETELI LL CETTE EF E i a ih La ee O La ha iii f E 0 8 0 0 0 i oe eee Se ai ey E E E 2 1 I 1 2 5 2 2 2 6 ee ee ee 22 Alternative Socioeconomic Estimates this worksheet calculates socioeconomic totals for subareas based on the assumed community element type from the CEi worksheet the amount of useable area in the subarea and socioeconomic ratios from the community element inventories listed at the top of the worksheet The worksheet also makes several comparisons The first checks the reasonableness of input data by calculating the ratios of socioeconomic variables to useable land area Users
41. ye pemi fma Doia iaia hie Fie DREH SRS Paes rel F Ai 2 ee a s E fagh kaiity amp biotiini 7 tural bin dure fiom a Bard Paaciarimi fle Bim Diw a Sur Sof Toren Cufon Cra CLT al Runie EYL Grillin HST ul Rea imivsirad Fin hipi PO Rpa FRpbpf pta Re Tipi Cosse adem P Tabien incisiral T Tatario eters Sit Gowen dissed Fy Tibashos Fii y Subutay Fie Suburban Faad aA BTA Direta a Cki Muir on Mulch BALON l f Seb oS Dirge per Ace Urp Per doe Pict Cekani ZEEE e eee 13 Step 8 Create and Review Alternative Scenarios To create an alternative land development scenario enter a unique name for the scenario in cell F7 of the CEi worksheet shaded in red Then modify the community element codes by subarea in column F To create and compare multiple scenarios press the CTRL and A keys simultaneously to invoke the macro that adds alternatives This saves the results of the current scenario in other worksheets for comparisons Enter a new name in cell F7 of the CEi worksheet and modify element codes in column F Point and click on the Alternative Assignments icon to review alternative assignment scenarios In the example illustrated below the initial alternative is labeled ALT1 The community element assignments for the second alternative are listed in the columned labeled ALT2 Users can test an unlimited number of alternatives
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