July 2008, Number 50 ALL-WAYS
Contents
1. Here are a number of characteristics that are helpful for identifying place horses Opposing Pace This one is very strong and it happens frequently The place horse often has a running style that is the exact opposite of the winning horse Consider this As you watch the horses coming down the stretch run approaching the finish line in a race you are generally rooting either for an early running horse to hold on or you are rooting for a closer to catch and pass the front runner Not an Early E Running Horse Horses with an E running style by definition must get and hold the lead It is axiomatic in horse racing that when an E horse is passed by another horse far more often than not the E horse gives up and is no longer a factor in the race If you think an E horse is going to get passed early to mid stretch you can generally leave the horse out of the Exacta Anti Bias Horses This is the case when a horse has a running style that is clearly going against the track s pace bias For example horses with Presser P or Sustainer S running styles are often the better candidates for the place position when running on the heavily early biased dirt track at Belmont Park Unbalanced Horses We consider a horse to be unbalanced if it has good speed but lower class or if it has high class but lower speed These horses are generally not good candidates to win the race because they come up short and finish in the place spot Se2. payoffs at fourteen different tracks in North America Our ALL Ways Race Databases for these tracks totaled approximately 26 000 races The chart below shows the average Exacta payoffs for All Weather Surface races real dirt races and turf races based on the win odds of the actual winning horse Average 2 Exacta Payoffs Winning Horse Going off odds 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 and to to to less 3 1 4 1 5 1 Synthetic 21 50 70 85 Real Dirt 21 45 66 79 Turf 25 59 75 98 This chart shows us several helpful things Turf races generally produce better payoffs than races on real dirt or synthetic surfaces This is due primarily to the typical pace scenarios in turf races and perhaps most important to the typically larger field sizes in turf races The somewhat higher payoffs on synthetic surfaces compared to real dirt is due primarily we believe to the added complexity of handicapping synthetic surface races Top Level Value Plays When we refer to value plays we are looking for straight Exacta combinations with probable payoffs somewhat above the Fair Payoff figure These value plays will be straight Exacta combinations that are under bet by the public Straight Exacta combinations that are over bet by the public should be avoided The public tends to over bet the first and second favorites in the race And somewhat surprisingly the public also tends to over bet long shots at 10 1 and higher This leads us to what we call the Exacta Sweet Spot wh
3. the Fair Payoff figure and convert it to a range from minus 20 up to plus 20 2 We then select an acceptable payoff figure within the range based on our own confidence level for the specific straight Exacta combination If we are very confident we will accept a payoff in the lower end of the range If we are moderately confident we use the mid point If we are barely confident if there is such a thing we use the higher end of the range In other words the more confident we are of a particular combination the lower the payoff can be for us to consider it a Value Play Here is an overall example If the combination we are evaluating is a 3 1 horse over a 4 1 horse the chart tells us the Fair Payoff is 30 We consider the acceptable payoff range to be 24 to 36 If we are very confident of our assessment of these two horses we will accept a payoff lower in the range say 24 A very good method to do this and one that will help you both determine acceptable value and how to structure your wager is to draw a simple Exacta Matrix as shown below The win horses are down the left side along with their odds The place horses are shown across the top with their odds Simply fill in the appropriate cells with the probable payoffs shown at the track Obviously we include a tablet of paper as part of our handicapping paraphernalia Exacta Probable Payoff Matrix 8 1 2 1 5 1 41 2 3 6 7 21 3 38 16 15 XXXX s1 6 9
4. 8 28 54 XXXX 51 80 23 48 2 XXXX Let s pause a minute and review where we are We have handicapped the race and identified the straight Exacta combinations we want to further consider and we have a sense of the level of our confidence for each combination We also know the probable payoffs for each combination and using the Fair Payoff chart shown earlier we also know the mid point of a Fair Payoff Range for each combination The next step and we are getting towards the end is to write down a simple table like the one shown below We call this our Exacta Decision Table Exacta Decision Table Comb Fair Adj Prob Bet Win 3 2 36 low 43 38 no 3 6 24 24 16 no 3 7 20 20 15 no 6 2 90 wash 90 98 x 1 2 98 6 3 30 high 24 28 x4 8 112 6 7 50 high 40 54x 2 4 108 7 2 72 low 86 80 no 7 3 24 24 23 x4 8 92 7 6 48 48 48 x2 4 96 Total Wager 26 Here is what the column labels mean Comb Win place combination Fair Fair Payoff with confidence note Adj Acceptable payoff from confidence Prob Probable payoff with bet decision including bet amount multiplier Win Total expected payoff for winning bet We start creating the table by writing down all the information we need in order to make informed final decisions In this example we determined that three horses could win or place 3 6 7 and we added 2 as an additional possible place horse This gives us nine possible co
5. July 2008 Number 50 ALL Ways NEWSLETTER Inside This Newsletter Playing the Exacta Summer Specials e ALL Ways Custom Card e AWS Batch Downloads e Preparing for the Breeder s Cup at Oak Tree Announcements Special July 2008 ALL Ways Custom Card Promotion Handicapping based on the specific pace scenario in a race is perhaps the very best way to find the surprise horses that finish in the money at big prices The ALL Ways version of BRIS Custom Card looks at all races being run at all tracks in North America and builds a custom ALL Ways data file made up just those races that match your selection criteria including the pace match up scenario in the race During the month of July 2008 you can download two different ALL Ways Custom Cards with up to 20 races each absolutely free Oak Tree and Del Mar AWS Batch Downloads Two economical batch files containing the ALL Ways data files and corresponding results files for every race run at Del Mar and for every race run at Oak Tree since the all weather surface tracks were installed are available on the ALL Ways Data File page on the BRIS Web site Please see the last page of this newsletter for more information about these special offers as well as suggestions for getting prepared to handicap this year s Breeder s Cup races at Oak Tree Playing the Exacta Common Sense vs Calculator Introduction While we have touched on the subject in numerous newsletters we have not devoted an
6. conditis Some horse s figures look very good on paper good enough to win the race but the horses come up short because they simply have a habit of finishing second These horses tend to jump out at you on past performance reports Pace Handicapping for Exactas Using the concepts of pace is a particularly effective way to handicap for playing Exactas We already mentioned the Opposing Pace concept above There are other pace considerations too Best Early Best Late ALL Ways Newsletter 8 introduced a pace handicapping method we called Opposing Pace Gap Strategy This has proven to be an extremely effective way to approach pace handicapping particularly for playing Exactas This method has you separate the early running horses E and EP horses and the late running horses P and S horses in to two separate groups and then use the concept of Gap handicapping to identify the best early horse s and the best late horse s in each group Gap handicapping includes looking at speed class compound pace and comprehensive ratings The best early horse s and the best late horse s are the best candidates to include in your Exacta combinations Note The ALL Ways Top 10 Ranking Handicapping Report is a great tool for spotting the Gaps in as many as sixteen different handicapping factors of your choosing Good Conditions for Closers More often than not the horses that finish in the win and place positions at decent mid range odds and o
7. e two non favorite horses most likely to beat the favorite For the Exacta this gets further refined to finding the place horse as well And we recommend your Exacta handicapping process also look for a possible non favorite Key Horse that can be singled in both the win and place positions Exacta Handicapping Guidelines Here are some guidelines that have served us well when handicapping for the Exacta e Approach the handicapping task in a way that identifies one or more specific straight Exacta win place combinations This will help avoid the tendency to box different horses and it will help you assess the value of the probable payoffs e Some races are simply too contentious to play Save money by passing such races in favor of playing other races that you have figured out If you have 200 to wager on Exactas on a ten race card it is generally best to not bet 20 on each of ten races but to bet 40 on five races e If you play both Exactas and Trifectas keep in mind that it is often better to play one large Exacta then smaller Exactas and Trifectas in the same race This is particularly the case if you believe the favorite will not win but may finish in the place or show position e Do not box a bunch of horses to cover up insufficient and or ineffective handicapping Be intellectually honest about this If you can t figure out good straight Exacta combinations that you have confidence in pass the race Characteristics of Place Horses
8. ecause they rarely yield value Fair Payoffs for 2 Exacta Wagers Win Horse Odds 1 Place Horse Odds 1 21 1314 5 6 7 8 9 2 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 3 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 4 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 5 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 6 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 7 42 56 70 84 98 112 126 140 8 48 64 80 96 112 128 144 160 9 54 72 90 108 126 144 162 180 Common Sense vs Calculator Being able to see the probable Exacta payoffs before you wager coupled with the concept of Fair Payoffs is indeed powerful and important Most articles you will read on playing the Exacta will start with this Fair Payoff concept just as we do However many of these other articles go deeper into the mathematics seeking more precision with variable Edge multipliers proportional wagering allocation and recovery of guaranteed losing combinations These concepts rules and guidelines related to playing the Exacta are certainly valid but they scream C A L C U L A T O R However we have had solid success playing the Exacta following these general concepts but doing so more intuitively and using common sense in lieu of a calculator And that is where we are now going to head Some Exacta Payoff Statistics We used the Track Payoff Analysis built into ALL Ways software to analyze the actual Exacta
9. entire newsletter to the Exacta wager until now The Exacta is one of the very best wagers in racing We do not say this lightly There are very specific reasons why the Exacta is such a good wager We explore these reasons below We also cover how to spot the best Exacta combination values to play in a race and we present a two part process to handicap for the win and place horses and to effectively structure Exacta wagers to maximize your return Why the Exacta is Such a Good Wager There are only three types of wagers in racing where you know with certainty what a winning wager will pay before you place the bet These three wager types are Win wagers Daily Double wagers and Exacta wagers You can see what Exactas will pay by looking at the probable payoffs which are continually updated right up to post time It is not possible to overemphasize how important this probable payoff information really is It will let you spot the best win place horse Exacta combinations in terms of wagering value and it will help you structure your wagers to maximize this value Exacta wagers with very good values present themselves frequently mainly because the general public is very ineffective at playing Exactas They bet too many combinations generally by boxing too many horses They over bet combinations with the favorite and second favorite horses They bet on too many long shots The combinations over bet by the public become poor values Conversely c
10. es to create or add to your Race Database for these tracks so they reflect the new synthetic surfaces as well as turf races Preparing for the 2008 Breeder s Cup The 2008 Breeder s Cup is headed for the Oak Tree Meet at Santa Anita and will be run on October 24th and 25th A few years ago the racing industry switched to maintaining separate data for the Oak Tree Meet at Santa Anita and for the regular Santa Anita meet The best way to get prepared for the Breeder s Cup is to do two things 1 Download the low priced AWS Batch Download file for Oak Tree This will give you 31 race cards that were run after the synthetic surface was installed 2 Sign up for the ALL Ways Meet Subscription Package for the full 2008 meet at Oak Tree This will let you download at a reduced price all ALL Ways data files and results files for every race card at Oak Tree in 2008 including the Breeder s Cup dates Doing both 1 and 2 above will provide you with the entire 2007 and 2008 meets at Oak Tree and put you in good shape for the 2008 Breeder s Cup New to ALL Ways We recommend calling BRIS at 1 800 354 9206 and for a nominal shipping and handling charge they will mail the ALL Ways software and the comprehensive ALL Ways User Manual preprinted and in a 3 ring binder When your package arrives we suggest you read Chapter in the User Manual and then follow the simple directions in Chapter 2 to get started with the software amp ALL Ways Home Page Co
11. ften at high odds are closers P and S horses that surprise the public The public is very tuned in to early speed but not so much with late speed Thus race situations that are favorable to closers can be very helpful for Exacta play Three such race situations are 1 The track bias for the surface and exact distance is not too strong against late runners This is a bit of an odd statement but it is intentional Almost all track bias statistics tend to favor early speed to some degree What you are looking for here is an early bias that is not too strong 2 This one is obvious but it is worthwhile restating Races with a fast early pace races designated by ALL Ways as EEE or EE races often set up for closers to do well The fast pace compromises the early running horses making it easier for closers to catch them in the stretch 3 Longer sprints 6 1 2 7 and 7 2 furlongs and longer routes 1 1 16 1 1 8 and 1 3 16 miles give closers more distance to catch the front runners coming down the stretch and conversely make it more difficult for front runners to hang on to the finish Visualize the Stretch Run This is a very helpful handicapping technique because it channels your handicapping efforts and your decision making process in a very good direction for playing Exactas Visualize how the front runners at the 2nd Call will enter the stretch run Will they have an easy time getting to the 2nd Call or will they endure moderate to toug
12. h early pace pressure Visualize how the closers will enter the stretch run Will they be close enough at the 2nd Call to be a factor in the race Will the early pace pressure tire out the front runners so the closers will have a better shot at passing them on the way to the wire Will the length of the race help or hurt the early runners or the closers Are there multiple early E and or early presser EP horses in the race that will form a wall of horses coming around the final turn that will compromise the closers forcing them to go very wide This technique is a very good way to isolate the horses that legitimately have a shot at finishing in the win and place positions And you may want to use the special Stretch Gain Performance Index in ALL Ways that shows you how well each horse tends to hold or improve its position in the stretch The Value and Structure Part We consider the Fair Payoff number to be the mid point of a range specifically a range of plus or minus 20 So if the Fair Payoff calculation shows a 30 value we consider the acceptable range to be from 24 to 36 Note that the Fair Payoff calculation is based on the public s assessment of each horse s probability of winning the race in the form of each horse s going off odds We consider these odds to be loose approximations and not precise which is why we prefer using a range When we look for value we do two things 1 Using the simple chart shown earlier we determine
13. ich is to focus on horses going off in the range of 3 1 up to 9 1 And even if the favorite is in this range we will generally not play the favorite in the win position A Two Part Process Successfully playing Exacta wagers requires a two part process The first part is to handicap the race for the potential win and place horses The second part is to look for straight Exacta combinations that offer sufficient value and to determine the structure of the wager Structure covers which specific combination s to play and how much to bet on each combination The Handicapping Part We are not going to cover general handicapping principles here We refer you to the list of Related ALL Ways Newsletters on the last page of this newsletter What we are going to do now is to focus on handicapping concepts that are particularly helpful for playing Exactas Caveat We start with the caveat Never say never There are some solid guidelines for playing Exactas that will serve you well 95 of the time including such things as Do not bet favorites in the win position and Do not waste money on very high odds horses As part of handicapping to play an Exacta we suggest always asking if there is a good reasons to break a general rule Exacta Handicapping Objectives First as we have said many times The fundamental goals of handicapping are to identify in advance the two out of three races that are not won by the crowd favorite and to identify th
14. lace between this July 2008 newsletter and our next newsletter in October Please see the ALL Ways Data File Page on the BRIS Web site for additional information and to access the special offers ALL Ways Custom Card Special The special ALL Ways version of Custom Card lets you specific exactly the kinds of races you want to play using up to a dozen different criteria including the ALL Ways Race Rating range of the races and the likely degree of early pace pressure in the races which is great for playing Exactas Custom Card then searches all races being run in North America and builds an ALL Ways data file containing only the races that meet your specifications During the month of July you can download an ALL Ways Custom Card for two different race dates with up to 20 races each absolutely free This offer applies only to the special ALL Ways version of Custom Card AWS Batch Download Specials This is part of our continuing effort to help ALL Ways handicappers make the transition to handicapping all weather surface races Special very low cost All Weather Surface Batch Download files will be available that include all races run at Del Mar and at Oak Tree since their synthetic surfaces were installed These files contain the ALL Ways data files and matching Exotic Results data files for every race date which is 43 cards at Del Mar and 31 cards at the Oak Tree Meet at Santa Anita ALL Ways software will automatically process these AWS Batch Fil
15. mbinations Our overall confidence in the 6 horse was high and it was low for the 2 horse We rated the 3 2 and the 7 2 combos as low the 6 3 and 6 7 combos at high and the 6 2 combo as a wash We then adjusted the Fair Payoff value based on our confidence level For example we raised the 3 2 combo payoff requirement from 36 to 43 a 20 increase and we lowered the 6 7 combo payoff requirement from 50 to 40 a 20 reduction Now let s look at a couple lines in the Exacta Decision Table to help explain our final wagering decisions We decided to not play the 3 2 combo because the probable payoff was too low The same is true for the 3 6 3 7 and 7 2 combinations Then we set a bet amount multiplier for each combo we bet such that the total win payoff will be in the same general range For example if we are playing a 2 Exacta we bet 2 on the 6 2 combo 8 on the 6 3 and 7 3 combos 4 on the 6 7 and 7 6 combinations This means if one of our combinations is a winner our total payoff will be between 92 and 112 for our total wager of 26 Betting more on the more probable combinations is a very important tenet of effective wagering Once you have used this overall process for playing the Exacta for a little while it is very logical straight forward and very easy to use And no calculator is required Note Some people will want to skip the Exacta Probable Payoff Matrix and instead simply write the probable payoffs directly in the Exac
16. ombinations under bet by the public become the values we are looking for Playing for Value You will continually see the word value when discussing how to play Exactas Just what is meant by value There is a formula we learned many years ago that has proven to be a good way to determine the Fair Payoff for any particular straight Exacta combination The Fair Exacta Payoff equals Bet x Win Odds x Place Odds 1 Here is how to read this formula Fair Payoff for an Exacta equals the size of the bet such as a 2 Exacta multiplied by the win horse s odds to 1 multiplied by the place horse s odds to 1 plus 1 The odds are each horse s going off win odds For example if the horse in the win position is going off at 3 to 1 and the horse in the place position is going off at 4 to 1 the Fair Payoff for a 2 Exacta is 2 x 3 x 4 1 30 Another example If the horse in the win position is going off at 4 to 1 and the horse in the place position is going off at 5 to 1 the Fair Payoff for a 2 Exacta is 2 x 4 x 5 1 48 Using this concept the Fair Payoff figure is the lowest payoff for the specific straight Exacta combination that is deemed acceptable The small table below shows the Fair Payoff figures for different going off odds combinations The odds of the horse in the Win slot are down the left side and those for the horse in the Place slot along the top We do not include horses going of at less than 2 1 odds b
17. pyright 2008 Frandsen Publishing Corporation PO Box 1439 Minnetonka MN 55345 All Rights Reserved How to contact Frandsen Publishing Phone 952 937 9180 E Mail FrandsenPublishing Comcast net Website www frandsen com Be sure to check the What s New page on our Website for the latest announcements and alerts
18. ta Decision Table Summary We have long recommended that serious horseplayers work to become expert at some element of playing the horses The Exacta is one of the very best areas to focus on You know in advance of making the wager what the payoffs will be You can determine if the payoffs yield sufficient value And you can maximize your return by allocating the amounts wagered based on the probabilities of winning combinations So why not become an expert at playing the Exacta And if you are really serious about this consider using the special ALL Ways version of Custom Card to specialize on the types of races and the race situations that yield the best Exacta returns Related ALL Ways Newsletters All ALL Ways Newsletters are posted on the Frandsen Publishing Web site at www frandsen com and they are absolutely free Here is a list of past newsletter articles that you may find helpful in support of the articles in this current newsletter Article NL Pace Handicapping Race Pace Shapes 3 Spotting High Priced Horses 7 Handicapping Honest Pace Races 8 Pass or Play Should be the Question 12 Best Early Best Late 18 Effective Pace Handicapping Process 21 When an Exacta is Better Than a Trifecta 26 Curse of the Legitimate Favorite 30 Become Expert at Something 49 Handicapping Process Series starts 42 Wagering Series starts 36 Summer Specials Here is a very brief explanation of important activities that will take p
Download Pdf Manuals
Related Search