profile .id
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1. depending on the changes occurring at the local area Small areas with substantial residential growth significant demographic change or changes to important institutions non private dwellings need more regular updates annual to bi annual This is also important for areas that are affected by global and national influences e g tertiary student market or business migrants notably inner city areas or coastal tourism areas The main reason for updating relates to the fact that new information and new developments are coming to light at regular intervals This can be compared to middle suburban areas or rural areas with stable or well established housing markets that are less volatile and require less updating every two to three years The benefit of regular updating of forecasts is not only to main tain greater accuracy but also the ability to build knowledge within organisations about key local residential developments and demographic changes Base POPULATION estimates The population figures used in the forecasts for 2001 are derived from estimated resident population from the Austra lian Bureau of Statistics These figures are published at the Statistical Local Area level which are extrapolated to Census Collection District CCDs and then aggregated to the chosen small area sometime splitting CCDs if necessary These figures are subject to change or updating from time to time most notably after census release usually one2. forecast id Overview Welcome to forecast id forecast id enables you to streamline information management forecast id is designed to provide a consistent simple sophis ticated and comprehensive population and household forecast information base across the organisation This important information about the community is designed to be available consistently across the organisation as a web application on everybody s desktop as well as in hard copy and PDF for emailing and faxing There is also a print version of the web application paginated for easy hard copy production undertake small area analysis forecast id is output on the basis of customised small areas suburbs postcodes wards etc all which are benchmarked to the municipality use it in conjunction with profile id forecast id provides you with a consistent basis across your organisation on which to plan for service delivery deal more effectively with internal information requests forecast id is designed as an education tool that supports deci sion making processes in the organisation minimise time spent on external information requests One of the most frustrating requirement for scarce resources in Council is to meet the increasing external demands for demographic related information forecast id can be put on Council s website for external access Also the functional ity of forecast id is such that pages can be easily faxed emailed and printed
3. a comprehensive understanding of the community s chang ing age structure and household type characteristics at the small area level Based on Census data forecast id provides you with a comprehensive demographic forecast answering questions on key factors such as population size age structure and household types The forecast data are available at the municipal level as well as at the small area level benchmarked to the municipal level The spatial and temporal comparisons presented in forecast id set the context for strategic decision making for planners Example Housing studies typically require an understanding of the age and household structures and dwelling types of an area and how they have changed over time An ageing population with rapidly declining average household size is often indicative of the emergence of empty nester households Council s Stra tegic Housing Study will need to draw on these relationships to develop an understanding of changing housing requirements of a changing population which may be addressed in the develop ment of a housing policy service delivery amp allocation of resources Local government service delivery decisions as a standard are made at the small area level typically to target markets defined by age group and household type The key feature of forecast id is to provide small area information to assist plan ning and allocation at that level Example Use the age structure information t
4. on request avoid costly repetition Councils frequently commission studies that require a socio demographic component Understanding the socio demo graphic characteristics of the community usually provides the demand side analysis for housing strategies community development studies municipal health and well being plans services and facilities plans and rezoning propos als Socio demographic components of these studies are frequently sub standard and almost never forward looking forecasts They often derive inconsistent results across the various studies that can cause confusion across Council and the community Significant cost and quality assurance benefits will be achieved by commissioning forecast id use your Staff resources for strategic analysis not number crunching Producing forecasts requires highly specialised expertise The cost of producing forecasts internally depending on the quality of output and depth of analysis will typically take between 6 8 months for 1 5 people a senior officer and analyst at an estimated cost of approximately 60 000 to 80 000 forecast id can be produced within 6 to 8 weeks of commissioning and for substantially less cost We guarantee implementation within the budget and on time i d also provides technical and interpretive support inject knowledge into your organisation Outsourcing is often criticised for taking knowledge and skills away from an organisation I
5. results The Frankston City population and household PA af forecasts are designed to inform community Ahem groups Council investors business students E and the general public To achiewe this eee forecast id is formatted to present the data in simple clear tables and charts with concise ma key household factual commentary results Select a region To view the forecasts please click ona What are our f menu item to the left of the screen assumptions How many people Will live here How old will we be Hon will we Site requirements liver How did we do the forecasts ana a a AI Site amp data info 9 Explorer Cs Adobe Queries Microsoft Internet Explorer 4dobe SVG Viewer 3 Adobe Acrobat Reader 5 I DISCLAIMER Whilst all due care has been taken to ensure the content of this website is accurate and current there may be errors or omissions in it and no legal responsibility is accepted for the information and opinions in this report In addition as the website is based on historic information which is subject to revision and assumptions in preparing forecast figures which are both difficult to predict and liable to change we do not guarantee its currency Copyright amp id 2002 forecastid is a registered trademark of iid consulting pty ltd Last updated Monday February 09 2004 4 58 14 PM The information in forecast id is extensive and diverse To make i
6. will we live 12 Base population estimates 18 How did we do the forecast 12 Base household estimates 18 5 How do use forecast id Glossary of terms 19 The content menu 13 Importing amp exporting data 14 and information Printing pages amp reports 14 Other functions to 1 Introduction This training manual explains what forecast id is how to use the forecast id product how to apply forecast id to workplace situations We hope you enjoy using forecast id and welcome any feedback you may have on the product i d informed decisions PO Box 1689 23 Budd Street Collingwood 3066 Collingwood VIC 3066 t 03 9417 2205 f 03 9417 2206 e info id com au www id com au 2 What is forecast id forecast id presents a comprehensive demographic forecasts at the small area level for example suburbs and for the total municipality including e Summary of Population households amp dwellings e Population change incl births deaths amp migration by age e Population by age amp gender 1 year and 5 year cohorts e Households by household amp family type Outputs are for EACH YEAR of the forecast period e An analysis of the residential role and function of each area based on a housing market analysis e complete Microsoft Office copy and paste compatibility print PDF reports for local area and suburbs e database driven application with optional query and mapping modules forecast id enables you
7. ages from within forecast id print version links and PDF reports Print a single topic for an area Print pages are used to print a single section of information for one region To print a page 1 Click the Print Version link at the top left of the page This link will redirect you to a print version that does not contain the menu structure and is formatted to suit printing 2 Click the Print icon on your web browser To ensure that the site is printed as accurately as possible it is important that background printing is turner on on your browser This can be done directly with Microsoft Internet Explorer ver sion 5 and above 1 Select Tools gt Internet Options gt Advanced from the main menu of Internet Explorer 2 Scroll down the list until you reach Printing 3 Click the check box beside Print Background Colour and Images 4 Click OK Print all the pages for an area If you would prefer to print a suburb in its entirety an Adobe Acrobat PDF version is available in the reports section of forecast id To print a PDF report 1 Ensure that Acrobat Reader has been installed on your computer 2 Click on the Site and Data Information button and then the PDF Reports link 3 Click the Download Link corresponding with the suburb you wish to view Alternatively right click the Download link and select Save target as from the context menu to save the report to your computer 4 Once
8. d s information products are designed to inject knowledge into the organisation forecast id will increase your organisation s knowledge base forecast id uses a process that is aimed at pointing out key drivers of change so than an organisation can develop knowledge and understanding of the reasons for population and household growth and change take advantage of i d s expertise Producing quality population and household forecasts is a proj ect requiring considerable expertise Information presented in forecast id is delivered within the context of explanation of the cause and effect of housing market change designed to inform policy decision making and build the organisation s knowledge base profile id User Guide Content Page Page 1 Introduction 6 How can apply forecast id to What is in this training manual 7 workplace situations Funding submissions 16 2 What is forecast id Strategic planning processes 16 What data is used 8 Service delivery amp allocation 16 of resources 3 What does forecast id look like The layout 9 Tables 10 aah H 7 Technical notes How accurate is forecast id 17 What economic assumptions 1 4 What does forecast id contain are taken into account What are the key results 12 Why is there only one population 17 What are our assumptions 12 forecast and not a number of scenarios How many people will live here 12 How often should the forecast 18 How old will we be 12 be reviewed How
9. ded by established families upgrading their housing elsewhere This is a household type that is comprised of related adults who are not in a traditional family household An example includes brothers and sisters living together Self contained dwelling including houses attached or detached flats townhouses etc Retirement village units are also private dwellings as are houses or flats rented from the government These are sites in already established areas not originally developed for residential uses but identified for conversion to residential use Examples include former school sites quarries derelict industrial land former petrol stations and the like Areas either designated or with the potential to be developed for residential purposes They include greenfield and broadhectare sites as well as redevelopment changing use and infill development This is the process by which older households such as empty nesters and old lone person households are replaced by younger households such as families or young adults due to the death of elderly or people migrating elsewhere Areas that play a transitional role in the housing market by generally providing a high share of affordable rental housing stock These areas are often important for home leavers young adults and recent overseas settler migrants They are often based on regional centres metropolitan or country This is the stock of houses flats and other dwelling type
10. e assump tions would lead to tens or even hundreds of sets of forecasts 2 Multiple forecasts leads to confusion Combined experience of more than 20 years in conducting population forecasts and projections within the i d team has showed that multiple scenarios leads to confusion amongst users who often ask which is the best or most appropriate scenario Therefore i d uses a single forecast approach which allows a greater degree of consistency and more integrated approach by users of the data v 3 Multiple forecasts leads to people using the best case scenario depending on their viewpoint The traditional projection approach is to do a number of sce narios based on varying assumptions However the different outcomes are often used by varied interest groups for the pur poses of lobbying specific agenda Therefore i d uses a single forecast approach which allows a greater degree of consis tency and more integrated approach by users of the data 4 i d provides scenario analysis services i d has developed a scenario service which allows council to test the possible impact of amongst other things policy changes on population forecasts This might include changes to growth corridors policy medium density housing or diversify ing housing markets How often should the forecasts be reviewed Population forecasts should be analysed and reviewed regu larly The need to update forecasts will vary
11. forecast t user manual i d s information products are targeted to provide a consistent insight across your organisation into the community s characteristics and how they are changing This is almost all you need to know about using forecast id profile id Community Profile Census snapshot comprehensive socio demographic profile customised small area information Understand your community what are our characteristics how have we changed how do we compare to other areas forecast id 2006 2011 Population amp Household Type forecast customised small area planning tool single year of age forecasts household type forecasts annual updates Plan for the future how are the community s demographic characteristics changing what is the driving the change when and where to allocate resources Disclaimer Any representation statement opinion or advice expressed or implied in this publication is made in good faith but on the basis that i d consulting pty Itd its agents contractors or employees are not liable whether by reason of negligence lack of care or otherwise to any person for any damage or loss whatso ever which has occurred or may occur in relation to that person taking or not taking as the case may be action in respect of any representation statement opinion or advice referred to in this report All trademarks have been recognised i d consulting 2003 www id com au ne Vv
12. g of This is one of the major household types in Australia It consists of a couple either married or de facto with dependent or non dependent children This is one of the major household types in Australia It consists of a couple either married or de facto without dependent or non dependent children This may be as children have already left home or as a result of a couple not having had children The share of the population that would be expected to die in a year based on age specific rates The nature of an area based on its demographic characteristics notably the age and household types common to a particular geography Refers to people who are not responsible for forming households such as children but also including elderly parents and grandparents living with their children or grandchildren sometimes used interchangeably with children A habitable residential building The supply of dwellings either occupied or unoccupied in a given geographic area Parents whose children have left the family home to establish new households elsewhere 19 oy Enumerated population Estimated households Estimated Resident Population ERP Fertility rates Forecast Period Greenfield sites Group households Home leavers Household Housing market role or function Infill Development Institutions institutional population Internal household generation Land development Lone person households Mature families M
13. ge groups 2001 2006 and 2006 2011 Number of people 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 1 000 Oto4 L bob informed decisions 2002 E 2001 to 2006 2006 to 2011 Stoll 12to17 18to24 25to34 35to49 50to59 60to69 70to 84 85 and Age group years 11 OVET informed decisions 7002 4 What does forecast id contain The population forecast presented through forecast id is structured around six main questions Within each of these more detailed questions are presented What are the key results summary key drivers of change key age specific results key household results What are our assumptions residential developments migration other assumptions How many people will live here how many will live here in the future population and summary data how will our population change population change How old will we be what will our age structure be 5 year age groups what will our service age structure be service age groups How will we live what type of household will we live in household type How did we do the forecast what are the components of population change population change components what methodology was used methodology v 5 How do use forecast id The Content Menu The content menu has nine main buttons What are the key results O Select a region ue BE Mee lt Which part of your municipality do you wish to find out Area da E S Grea 2 B
14. ge specific net 2002 to 2006 migration 2002 2006 and 2007 2011 9007 to 7011 2 400 1 600 800 Number of people 800 1 600 Oto 4 10 ta 14 40ta 24 430 ta 34 40 to 44 50 to 54 B to 64 FO ta 4 a0 to 54 5 to 49 15 to 19 25 to 29 35 to 39 45 to 49 55 to 5 amp 65 to 69 f5 to 9 Age group years informed decisions 2002 Port Phillip Bay fester Port Bass Strait 15 6 How can apply forecast id to workplace situations Like the other information products produced by i d informed decisions forecast id has been designed for application across a range of workplace situations funding submissions Funding submissions generally rely on quality concise presen tation of key information about target groups often specific age groups and household types Example Funding for child care centres relies on compre hensive information about key age groups and how they have changed over time forecast id enables you to extract age structure tables and charts for the municipality as a whole as well as for each of the small areas These can simple be cut and paste into your submission or alternatively export the tables to Excel or Word to review the table content to suit your submission needs strategic planning processes Local Government Strategic Planning typically covers hous ing studies transport economic base analysis etc Almost all Local Government Strategic Planning processes require
15. igrant Migration Mortality rates Natural Increase Net Household Additions Non private dwellings The population as counted at the place where they were living on Census night including visitors and people usually resident elsewhere This measure attempts to increase the scope of Occupied Private Dwellings definition to include an estimate of dwellings that were temporarily unoccupied at the time of the Census and remove houses This measure yields much higher estimates of occupancy rates than the usual OPD measure This is the estimate of the true resident population based on their usual residence The ERP at the time of the Census is calculated as the sum of the enumerated counted population plus persons temporarily absent less persons who are non permanent residents visitors An undercount of population by small area at Census time is also accounted for and the population is backdated from August to June 30 The ERP for forecast years are based on adding to the estimated population the components of natural increase and net migration The likelihood of a woman in the fertile age groups 15 44 giving birth to a child The forecast period for forecast id is from 2001 to 2016 See Broadhectare land This is a household type that is comprised of non related individuals Home leavers are young adults who leave the family home generally from the ages of 18 29 One or more persons living in a structural private dwelling This de
16. ing Frequently Asked Questions about using forecast id Data Notes containing information on population and household estimates Glossary of terms definition of all the words used in the forecast References the data sources PDF report containing complete community profiles for the munici pality and each of the sub regions within it These reports are in PDF format to allow easy and accurate printing suitable for council distribution DO Site amp data info 2 FAQs a Data Motes Glossary of terms Feferences eS POF Reports u 13 p Importing Exporting the Data Importing the content from the forecast into your Microsoft Office is an extremely useful feature of the product that enables you to incorporate the information into your reports or conduct further analysis To import a page into Microsoft Word 1 Drag the cursor across the area of the page you would like to import 2 Select Edit gt Copy from the main menu Ctrl c on your keyboard 3 Open Microsoft Word 4 Select Edit gt Paste from the main menu Ctrl v on your keyboard 5 Resize the chart table and text to meet your needs To import a table into Microsoft Excel 1 Highlight the table you wish to copy and select Edit gt Copy from the main menu Ctrl c on your keyboard Make sure that you do not copy the table title in the first row 2 Open a new Microsoft Excel spreadsheet 3 Click on the first cell 4 Select Edit gt Pas
17. ittern Area 3 Dromana Grea 4d Flinders Area 5 Hastings Area 6 HMAS Cer Area T M nington E Area a M nington Area 9 Mt Eliza Area 10 Mt Martha the forecasts Site amp data info Queries es What are the lt q key results Select a region O what are our assumptions How many people Will live here ee How old will we be a How will we live O How did we do the forecasts Site amp data info Queries Do you need to run more complex data queries An analytical component is available as a feature with forecast id Through this feature you are able to view single year of age data so that you are able to aggregate the ages into any age group you need You are also able to view the raw numbers for all the variables for every year Queries me Login fstaff only about Click on this button to open a drop down menu that lists the sub regions in your municipality available for selection Once you have made a selection the data you choose will relate to that particular region Please note You can also select an area from the map page What data do you want to view Click on any of these question buttons to display the data sub topics for the region you have chosen Click on any of these sub topics to access the data you require Do you need additional information about the site product or data Click on this button to access FAQ contain
18. o identify the differences in the number of 0 to 4 year olds for pre school services across the small areas constituting the municipality How do the areas compare Where will their numbers increase significantly Where will their numbers decrease significantly Is there a need to reallocate resources on the basis of expected change to the numbers of 0 4 year olds Current resourcing levels can be analysed in relation to expected change of 0 4 year olds to support resource allocation decision making 7 Technical notes This section tells you about the general questions asked about forecast id the estinates used and a glossary of all the terms used in forecast id How accurate is forecast id The accuracy of forecast id usually associated with the quality of assumptions that underpin the forecasts i d attempts to undertake a strong process of consultation to ensure that the assumptions that are used in the forecasts are validated by local government professionals such as statutory and strategic planners community service experts and other relevant par ties such as developers One of the benefits of the modelling techniques used by i d is the greater ability to scrutinize the assumptions and output particularly after censuses The key assumptions that are utilised in the forecasts include residential development migration by age household formation by age While the consultation processes ensure a greater degree
19. of accuracy the nature of urban development and demographic and household change is fluid meaning that change and alteration to assumptions is always necessary over time As such a review of the forecasts is essential every one to two or so years depending on the area to check the assumptions and monitor the performance of the forecasts What economic assumptions are taken into account Economic assumptions are not explicitly part of the modelling process They are implied in different ways depending on the area being forecast In regional and rural areas a close assessment of the local economic conditions must be undertaken as they have a direct impact on migration patterns and levels of household and population growth In urban areas the current state of the metropolitan and regional economy is assessed as an input to short term assumptions about levels of residential development As no economic cycle is assumed as a part of the forecasts the levels of development may not typify year to year variations in residential and demographic change Why is there only one population forecast and not a number of scenarios When producing small area population forecasts i d produces one standard set of outputs This is due to a number of reasons 1 Difficulty of differentiating small area assumptions There are a multitude of different assumptions that are used in small area forecasts Providing a sufficient scenario for each of th
20. ppealing suburban environment Frankston Central plays a role as the most urban area of the City attracting younger adults seeking access to employment education and transport As this area attracts more intense forms of residential development this role is likely to be reinforced with older empty nester households also likely to be attracted Areas developed in the 1960s such as Frankston Heights and Karingal are expected to lose many young adults as they leave home to establish households elsewhere This will result in population stability or decline This variety of function and role of the small areas in Frankston City means that the population outcomes differ significantly across the municipality charts forecast id uses bar and line charts to display information All the charts show change over time either annually or between 5 year time spans Mornington Peninsula Shire forecast population and average household size 2001 to 2016 Forecast population 176 000 168 000 160 000 157 000 144 000 136 000 126 000 120 000 2001 2002 Mornington Peninsula Shire forecast change in age structure me Average household size E Total Population 2 72 2 64 32 5 6 2 56 65 S w i 2480 F nO E LA 240 3 eo Ma 2 32 i an A M 224 Sm 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Forecast year ending June 30 service a
21. s which are considered to be structural i e they generate a building commencement Non structural types such as caravans and improvised dwellings are not included The SPD is the usual base stock from which commencements are added and demolitions deducted This is the traditional path undertaken by suburban areas in major cities of Australia whereby new greenfield areas are settled by young couples and families After maturing the children leave the home increasing the share of empty nesters Eventually the original settlers are replaced regeneration sometimes by families and sometimes the area experiences a transformation in its housing stock with a greater share of young renters Population forecast based on assumptions made at the State and National level and allocated into smaller regions e g Local Government Areas suburbs The proportion of structural private dwellings that are unoccupied Refers to people from the late teens to late twenties Refers to couples without children in their twenties and early thirties One and two parent families with young children generally of pre and primary school age 21 22
22. scribes the sort of people who are attracted to various areas according to their demographic characteristics and social aspirations Characteristics include age household type ethnicity occupation tenure etc Residential development usually of a relatively small scale on redevelopment sites in established urban areas This usually takes place on land previously used for another urban purpose such as industry or schools Also referred to as intensification of existing areas This term is used interchangeably with non private dwellings This term is used to describe the phenomenon by which areas generate significant numbers of households This is generally due to a large number of young adults leaving home in a short period and due to other factors which households such as divorce and separation This describes the list of residential development opportunities including greenfield redevelopment sites and infill This is one of the major household types in Australia It consists simply of persons living alone One and two parent families with older children generally teenagers A person who moves from one area to another The movement of people or households from one location to another The share of the population that would be expected to die in a year based on age specific rates The increase in population based on the births minus deaths not including the impact of migration The overall increase in occupied dwellings de
23. t easier to access three layout components are used You should download the required software for free by clicking here in order to be able to view the full functionality of the maps and charts pO Tables Tables in forecast id present data from 2001 through to 2016 by number and proportion where applicable Tables show information for the years 2001 2006 2011 and 2016 also where applicable Single years are also available and can be found in the queries section Summary data Forecast year 001 O06 O16 Total population 114 008 A 123 011 A 131 112 A 133 265 Households 43 252 A 47 344 A 51 236 A 52 945 Dwellings 44 790 A 438 960 A 52 999 A 54 769 Average household size 2 59 w 7 56 Mw 5 a4 Text Written analysis within forecast id highlights key points of interest in the data Assumptions regarding migration residential development and other assumptions fertility rates death rates vacancy rates etc about the small areas are discussed as are key results With the progressive residential development of the City over many decades areas have developed different roles within the housing market Areas such as Carrum Downs Skye and Langwarrin have had significant residential development in more recent years and are attractive to couples and families seeking new housing opportunities Areas such as Frankston South are attractive to mature families looking to upgrade to their second and third home in an a
24. te from the main menu Ctrl v on your keyboard 5 Resize the chart table and text to meet your needs ALTERNATIVELY 1 Hover the mouse over the table you wish to export 2 Right mouse click 3 Choose the Export to Microsoft Excel option To import tables or charts into Microsoft PowerPoint 1 Highlight the table or chart you wish to copy and select Edit gt Copy from the main menu Ctrl c on your keyboard 2 Open a PowerPoint presentation slide 3 Select Edit gt Paste from the main menu Ctrl v on your keyboard 4 Resize the chart table and text to meet your needs To import data into Microsoft Access 1 Import a table into Microsoft Excel and save it 2 Open Microsoft Access 3 Create a new database 4 Select File gt Get External Data gt Import 5 Select Microsoft Excel from the files of type drop down menu 6 Select the Excel file you just created and click on the Import button 7 Step through the Import Spreadsheet Wizard to set up the format of the table 8 The data is now in an Access table ready for analysis Printing Pages and Reports One of the main issues web users face when printing web pages is unpredictable output Often text that you really want runs off the page while graphics and advertising that you don t want print beautifully in the centre of the page To overcome these issues forecast id uses two methods to optimise printing of information The two methods for printing p
25. termined by the level of new dwelling construction that is permanently occupied or conversion of non permanently occupied dwellings to permanently occupied minus demolitions These dwellings include persons resident in establishments such as Prisons student or nurses accommodation nursing homes military facilities and hospitals 20 oy Occupancy Rate Occupied Private Dwellings OPD Older families One parent families Opportunity housing market Other family households or other families Private dwellings Redevelopment sites Residential development or building opportunities Regeneration Stagepost Structural Private Dwellings SPD Suburban growth cycle Top down forecast Vacancy rate Young adults Young couples Young families The proportion of structural private dwellings that are occupied by a household These are all Structural Private Dwellings SPDs that are occupied by a household Excluded are dwellings that were under construction being demolished or where the resident was unavailable to fill in the Census form One and two parent families with non dependent children such as those in their twenties and even early thirties This is a household type that is comprised of a single parent with a child or children Refers to established areas that are affordable and provide opportunities for young home buyers early to mid twenties The opportunities for purchase are often affor
26. the PDF has been downloaded into your browser select the Print button on the Adobe Acrobat menu Other functions to note View other areas with one simple click When looking at a specific variable you may want to be able to quickly view the same data for another small area At the bottom of the page is a list of all the other small areas for easy viewing of another area so that you don t have to use the left side menu View this topic for another area Area 1 Balnarring 7 Balnarring Beach Merricks Merricks Beach Somers Grea 2 Bittern Crib Point Area 3 Dromana Safety Beach Area 4 Flinders Shoreham Point Leo Area 5 Hastings Area 6 HMAS Cerberus Area 7 Mornington East Area 6 Mornington 7 Moorooduc Tuerong Area 9 Mount Eliza Area 10 Mount Martha Area 11 Portsea Sorrento Blairgowrie Area 12 Red Hill Red Hill South Merricks North Main Ridge 7 Arthurs Seat Area 13 Rosebud Rosebud West McCrae Boneo 7 Fingal 7 Cape Schanck Area 14 Rye Tootgarook St Andrews Beach Area 15 Somerville Tyabb Baxter Pearcedale gt More details on the maps and charts To get the most out of the maps and the charts please ensure that you have downloaded SVG viewer found on the home page You will then be able to roll over the maps to view the street and town names and the charts will display the values of the lines or bars Mornington Peninsula Shire forecast a
27. thout children persons in lone person households persons in group households and persons living in other families This relates to the modelling of births and deaths At each year of age there is a certain Statistical likelihood of a person dying or giving birth These age specific propensity rates are applied to the base and forecast population for each year of the forecast period This is term used to describe the range of ages in a population This refers to an existing resident population predominantly ageing in their current location as opposed to migrating elsewhere A calculation of the average change in a set of data total population for each individual year The average number of persons resident in each occupied private dwelling Calculated as the number of persons in occupied private dwellings divided by the number of occupied private dwellings The likelihood of a woman in the fertile age groups 15 44 giving birth to a child Population forecast based on assumptions made at the local area level Local drivers of change such as land stocks and local area migration form the basis of these forecasts Broadhectare land refers to undeveloped land zoned for residential development on the fringe of the established metropolitan area These areas are generally used for rural purposes until residential subdivision takes place This type of land is also referred to as greenfield The construction of a new dwelling or beginnin
28. to analyse local community characteris tics and understand how they will change over time It also allows you to compare your area to other areas forecast id enables you to analyse local community characteris tics and understand how they are likely to change in the future forecast id is an Internet based application which provides forecast information about your local area The web application is hosted by i d and can be updated regularly to ensure the currency of the forecasts Information is presented in a clear format which enables access to information by a range of people within your organisation This information can be easily incorporated into plan ning documents presentations community analysis and funding applications directly from the web application What data are used forecast id uses information derived from the Australian Bureau of Statistics ABS Census of Population and Housing which is undertaken every 5 years Information from the 2001 Census Is the key base year The forecasts are based on by assumptions about all the demographic drivers as they are observed at the local level These include Birth rates e Death rates e Age specific migration e Dwelling development rates both major and infill e Regional shifts in housing demand e Regional shifts in residential land supply 3 What does forecast id look like The Layout home return to Frankston City reports What are the key
29. to two years after the census is conducted Base HOUSEHOLD estimates The household estimates used in the forecasts for 2001 were based on age and sex specific population propensities by dif ferent household types Usual residents estimates by Census Collection District were extrapolated to Estimated Resident Population and then multiplied by household factors to give estimated Resident Households The multiplying factor varies depending on the household type and the area such as a factor of 1 for persons living in lone person households to 0 5 for an adult in couple families with dependent households Children and other dependents such as elderly parents are not assumed to form households Glossary of terms TERM Age and sex by household type Age specific propensities births and deaths Age structure Ageing in place Average annual change Average household size Birth rates Bottom up forecast Broadhectare Land or Sites Commencement Couples with children couple families with children Couples without children Death rates Demographic character Dependents Dwelling Dwelling stock Empty Nesters DEFINITION Each member of the population is part of a household type by relationship in household This includes 8 categories parent in a couple family with children children in a couple family with children parent in a single parent family children in a single parent family couple wi
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