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User`s Manual - CA Water Info

1. 32 Reponn seesi AA ANA APA AA 33 Which charts can be used to report on effectiveness impacts 33 Which charts can be used to report on efficiency impacts 35 Which charts can be used to report on equity impacts seeeessessuss 36 Introduction This manual presents the web based user interface for the model named the Aral Sea BEAM Basin Economic Water Allocation The model has been developed by Global Water Partnership DHI and COWI on behalf of the EC IFAS Executive Committee of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea in during a study which was carried out from August 2011 to October 2012 The USAID provided financial support for the study in question In brief the Aral Sea BEAM henceforth BEAM constitutes a decision support system to investigate the welfare impacts of changes to water allocation mechanisms and water management infrastructure in the Aral Sea basin The model is coded in the GAMS software environment The web based user interface allows a user to change model inputs and parameters without making changes to the underlying model code The web based interface generates a result file in an Excel spreadsheet format to facilitate viewing and processing of results In this way the model is accessible to all with access to the Internet What is BEAM BEAM is a computer based model that is used to simulate the water re
2. see below then 8 km year are reserved for the South Aral Sea and 4 km year are reserved for the North Aral Sea If Dry 2000 2001 conditions are selected then only 2 km year are reserved for the South Aral Sea and 1 5 km year are reserved for the North Aral Sea The annual requirement is distributed through the months of the year so that some flow must reach each sea in every month The amount of water reaching either of the seas can be increased using the following step 1 Specify the increase in the annual water requirement by modifying the numbers in the cells in the section with the heading Nature extra The units must be in mm year eoo Aral Sea BEAM E Q localhost 3000 queries new TG us e 4 I L O Create a new scenario Scenario name Save scenario Back Crop prices USD ton Electricity price USD MWh Nature extra mm3 year Runoff base year Cotton 1000 0 f October Aral north 1000 0 f Normal 2008 2009 Wheat 300 0 8 November Aral south 3000 0 8 Demography Rice 500 0 f December Flexible crops N Cotton M Flexible crop flexibility Alfalfa 100 0 January 70 0 M Medium Wheat Vegetables 40 0 8 February 65 0 8 Rice M Irrigation investments Fruit 450 0 March 60 0 M Efficiency 96 0 0 f Alfalfa Others 75 0 f April 50 0 7 improvement a New reservoirs in use 008 i 0 i May 40 0 I ea cost 0 B Input prices 96 of baseline Dashtijum C USD ha
3. 2145 1273 7437 1543 24752 8325 42929 Change p N N O do on ooooooooooooooobBorono be Sep 731 314 1 866 458 1 350 2 215 2 501 612 o 10 859 KYR TAD TUR UZB Discharges by country Scenario mm3 month Kyrgistan Tadjikstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Total Oct 683 4 335 196 2 828 1 415 9 457 Nov 1 856 5 515 799 4 485 1 369 14 024 Reservoir change by section Scenario mm3 month Upper Syrdarya Middle Syrdarya Lower Syrdarya Upper Amudarya Middle Amudarya Lower Amudarya Total Oct 259 348 807 1 164 852 o 112 Reservoir volume Scenario mm3 month Lower Amudarya Lower Syrdarya Middle Amudarya Middle Syrdarya Upper Amudarya Upper Syrdarya Total Scenario reservoir volume mjn3 month Res KAM Res TOK Res AND Res KAR Res CHA Res SHA Res ROG Res NUR Res TMP Res TMR Res DAS Res ZAR Res FER Res AHA Res ARN Res KOK Res KAF Res ZD Res TUR Res SUR Res KAS Res TAL Res BUK Res NAR Res FAR Res VAH Res CHI Total Scenario discharges mm3 month KYR KYR TAD TAD UZB KAZ TAD TAD UZB UZB TAD TAD FER UZB UZB KAZ KAZ TAD TUR UZB UZB UZB UZB UZB TAD UZB Total Big Big Res TOK Big Res AND Big Res KAR Big Res CHA Big Res SHA Big Big Res NUR Big Res TMP Big Big Big Middle Res FER Middle Res AHA Middle Res ARN Middle Res KOK Middle Res ARY Middle Res KAF Middle Res ZD Midd
4. 5 Summary value added data are also available as a per cent of GDP This provides information about the importance of agriculture and hydropower in the basin to each of the riparian countries GDP values used to prepare the tables are 2009 PPP figures Total value added baseline 6 of GDP Total value added Scenario of GDP Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Oct Nov Dec KYR 0 1396 0 1396 0 1396 0 1396 0 1396 0 1396 0 1396 0 1396 0 1396 0 1396 0 1396 0 1396 5 3296 KYR 0 3696 0 6496 0 7296 TAD 0 4296 0 4296 0 4296 0 4296 0 4296 0 4296 0 4296 0 4296 0 4296 0 4296 0 4296 0 4296 11 73 TAD 1 01 1 48 1 25 TUR 0 33 0 33 0 33 0 33 0 33 0 33 0 33 0 33 0 33 0 33 0 33 0 33 3 91 TUR 0 34 0 34 0 34 UZB 0 53 0 53 0 53 0 53 0 53 0 53 0 53 0 53 0 53 0 53 0 53 0 53 6 76 UZB 0 58 0 59 0 59 KAZ 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 26 KAZ 0 02 0 02 0 02 Agricultural value added baseline of GDP Agricultural value added Scenario of GDP Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Oct Nov Dec KYR 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 13 1 52 KYR 0 13 0 13 0 13 TAD 0 42 0 42 0 42 0 42 0 42 0 42 0 42 0 42 0 42 0 42 0 42 0 42 499 TAD 0 44 0 44 0 44 TUR 0 33 0 33 0 33 0 33 0 33 0 33 0 33 0 33 0 3396 0 3396 0 3396 0 3396 3 9196 TUR 0 3496 0 3496 0 3496 UZB 0 5396 0 5396 0 5396 0 5396 0 5396 0 5396 0 5396 0
5. Labor 100 0 f June 30 0 f Z Rogun Volumetric cost 0 0 f Capital 100 0 f July 30 0 f USD 1000m3 Kambarata Others 100 0 M August 40 0 f Use or conserve inter annual Yavan reservoir storage 96 of max Allow extra land 96 September 50 0 2 Basal 0 0 A Extra land 0 0 a Aral Sea BEAM in brief Programmer s Manual User s Manual Questions or problems Contact us Y 12 How to modify the group of flexible crops The group of flexible crops is a group of crops for which cropping patterns are allowed to change from the baseline in response to water availability and other economic factors when running the GAMS model The group of flexible crops can include any combination of cotton wheat rice and alfalfa see also below under How to modify the flexibility parameter The group of flexible crops is modified using the following step 1 Simply tick in the crops you wan to define as flexible crops The crops you have ticked in then belong to the group of flexible crops 1 806 7 Aral Sea BEAM el c C localhost 3000 queries new Create a new scenario Scenario name Save scenario Back Crop prices USD ton Electricity price USD MWh Nature extra mm3 year Runoff base year Cotton 1000 0 8 October 55 0 B Aral north 1000 0 8 Normal 2008 2009 Wheat 300 0 7 November 60 0 7 Aral south 3000 0 7 Demography Rice 500 0 f December 65 0 f Flexible crops sa Po M Flexibl
6. ON Ux 1n ue Executive Committee International Fund for saving the Aral Sea ARAL SEA BEAM BASIN ECONOMIC ALLOCATION MODEL USER S MANUAL Partnership Central Asia and Caucasus November 2012 Contents M OAU ERN NE TEE E ERE UE 1 Whatis BEAM AA e eea e eE 1 HOW to use this Manual ineo dedans ierat a a S eiai a ss 2 Before USING BEAN maana daka a ew anak ha ac desto pedo 3 What do you need to have in order to work with the model 3 How to access the user interface enne nnns 3 a eg dig eM 3 How to create a new scenario a 4 Modifying input data and developing scenarios cccccccseeeceeeecaeeseeeeeeaeeeeeeeessaaeeeeeeeaeeeeeeeeeas 7 How to modify input data and develop SCENALPIOS cccccseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaeneeeeeenaaeeeeess 7 How to modify crop sales prices 8 How to modify crop input factor prices nenne 9 How to modify electricity prices X 10 How to modify the extent to which inter annual carryover storage can be used or CONE CO ED T 11 How to modify the allocation of water to the Aral Sea eeeeeeeeeesesse 12 How to modify the group of flexible crops X 13 How to introduce new reservoirs and hydropower facilities 14 How to modify hydrological c
7. 49 34 27 58 84 11 62 a9 117 86 sDIV O 66 alf 149 22 44 48 17 50 18 40 37 58 36 37 75 22 23 25 DIV O 47 VEE 74 y 68 38 7 36 3 12 13 2 71 70 3 33 a 17 DIV O 43 fru 516 101 494 102 118 PB 357 36 37 5 313 312 319 227 352 159 8DIV O 224 oth 191 33 192 151 98 145 16 65 62 6 131 255 i4 2865 214 256 8DIV O 105 Green shaded cells are highest value red shaded cells are lowest value of flexible crops Value added by land use baseline USD ha FER_UZB SYR UZB CHI UZB SUR UZB KAS UZB ZAR UZB 50U_UZB SYR KAZ CHI KAZ NOR KAZ AMU TUR 5OU TUR FER KYR FER TAD UPA TAD ZAR TAD UPA AFG All cot 1567 1 640 1 868 2 150 1 920 2 202 1 566 1 610 1 610 1 610 882 1 640 882 1 450 882 DIV O 1 517 wht 1 079 470 632 sSDIV O 497 ric 1 005 1 178 1 143 1 195 285 13127 1276 676 677 1 668 2 261 286 903 1 838 2 542 1 838 DIv o 1 342 alf 1 733 250 538 288 1271 288 504 504 973 a24 673 422 288 341 288 DIV O 670 veg 48 52 445 274 258 8DIV O 318 fru 3 223 659 3 248 683 B63 474 2 552 261 252 36 2 535 2 654 1277 1 961 2 602 1 263 sDIV O 1 83 oth 1 527 265 1 430 1 253 697 1 074 112 435 435 39 1 029 1 3938 92 2 045 1 530 2 044 DIV O 75 Green shaded cells are highest value red shaded cells are
8. Cotton 1000 0 3 October 55 0 2 Aral north 1000 0 2 Normal 2008 2009 a Wheat 300 0 8 November 60 0 8 Aral south 3000 0 B Demography Rice 500 0 8 December 65 0 8 Flexible crops ja Cotton M Flexible crop flexibility n Alfalfa 100 0 f January 70 0 21 n M Medium Wheat Vegetables 40 0 8 February 65 0 8 T Rice M Irrigation investments li Fruit 450 0 March 60 0 T a Efficiency 0 0 f Alfalfa z T Others 75 0 7 April 50 0 7 improvement n 2 New reservoirs in use n A 00 f T i May 40 0 f E ea cos O Input prices 96 of baseline Dashtijum O USD Labor 100 0 2 June 30 0 f T Rogun Volumetric cost 0 0 f T Capital 100 0 2 July 30 0 f E USD 1000m3 E T Kambarata T Others 100 0 F August 40 0 A Use or conserve inter annual T Yavan pang reservoir storage of max T Allow extra land 26 m 50 0 3 Sosnario 0 0 A Extra land 0 0 f I A Aral Sea BEAM in brief Programmer s Manual User s Manual Questions or problems Contact us How to modify the level of irrigation investments It is possible to develop scenarios that simulate the impact of irrigation efficiency improvements These scenarios assume that irrigation water use decreases in response to investment in water saving technologies Investments in irrigation efficiency improvements may include both area related costs and water use related costs Water savings and cost information a
9. DEC i 0 i May 40 0 ina ea cos O B Input prices 96 of baseline Dashtijum O USD ha l Labor 100 0 f June 30 0 f 2 i Rogun E Volumetric cost 0 0 f Capital 100 0 2 July 30 0 f ES USD 1000m3 l i Kambarata pang Others 100 0 f August 40 0 4 m Use or conserve inter annual a Yavan reservoir storage of max Allow extra land 96 September 50 0 Ha 0 0 A l Extra land 0 0 1 ES Aral Sea BEAM in brief Programmer s Manual User s Manual Questions or problems Contact us y 19 Viewing and working with results How to update the output Excel file with results from the GAMS model The zip file containing model contains an xls file used to display model results and a number of csv files containing output from the GAMS model The contents of the csv files must be imported into the xls file by the user To import model output into the xls file 1 Unzip the contents of the downloaded zip file into a new directory 2 Open the xls file which is called beamOutput xls 3 Click on the control button Refresh all CSV input data files on the frontpage worksheet A B c p E F CI u 3 t m E Copyright Mikkel Kromann Niels David Riegels COW A S and DHI Group A S 2011 12 Use and distribution of the model is allowed only by permission of a copyright holder Refresh all CSV
10. KAZ 4 608 5 535 5 997 6 458 6 458 5 535 4613 3 690 2 768 2 768 3 689 4 606 56 725 KAZ 4556 5 535 5 997 All 163 419 221 672 197 437 195 349 199 656 177 181 138 986 100 289 74 255 74979 109 556 139 860 1 792 639 All 134 295 248 041 224 799 Note Includes monthly costs for operation and fc 4 Summary data are also available for hydropower production and irrigation investment costs In the present version of BEAM costs of hydropower production are assumed to zero The summary data related to irrigation efficiency investment costs present costs result from irrigation investment assumptions defined using the input interface Hydropower costs baseline 1000 USD Oct Nov g Jan Feb Mar Apr May t E Aug Total Hydropower costs Scenario 1000 USD Oct Nov p KYR 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 KYR 0 0 o TAD 0 0 0 o o 0 o 0 o o 0 0 0 TAD 0 o 0 TUR 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TUR o 0 o UZB 0 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 UZB 0 o 0 KAZ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 KAZ 0 0 0 All 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 All o 0 0 Irrigation efficiency investment costs baseline 1000 USD Irrigation efficiency investment costs Scenario 10 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Oct Nov Dec KYR 0 0 0 o o 0 0 o o 0 0 0 0 KYR 0 0 0 TAD 0 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 o o 0 0 0 TAD 0 o 0 TUR 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 TUR 0 0 o UZB 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 0 0 UZB 0 o 0 KAZ 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 KAZ 0 0 0 All 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 All 0 0 0 23
11. Runoff base year Cotton 1000 0 7 October 55 0 3 Aral north 1000 0 7 Normal 2008 2009 Wheat 300 0 2 November 60 0 8 Aral south 3000 0 8 Demography Rice 500 0 f December 65 0 2 Flexible crops a m me pou M Flexible crop flexibility T e Medium Vegetables 40 0 8 February 65 0 8 Rice M Irrigation investments Fruit 450 0 March 60 0 Alfalfa M Efficiency 96 0 0 8 Others 75 0 7 April 50 0 7 improvement New reservoirs in use a Input prices 96 of baseline May 40 Dashtijum E a 0 0 Labor 100 0 June m B Rogun m Volumetric cost 0 0 F Capital 100 0 3 July ONE USD 1000m3 i Others 100 0 f August Use or conserve inter annual Yavan ba reservoir storage Yo of max Allow extra land 96 September 50 0 3 CERTA 0 0 2 Extra land 0 0 f A Aral Sea BEAM in brief Programmer s Manual User s Manual Questions or problems Contact us 1 14 How to modify hydrological conditions It is possible to use two sets of assumptions about hydrological conditions in BEAM The first assumes that inflows to the river system from mountain catchments are the same as those observed during the 2009 hydrological year A hydrological ear runs from 1 October Year X to 30 September Year x41 Hence the 2009 hydrological year runs from 1 October 2008 to 30 September 2009 The 2009 year was considered an average or normal year in the basin The second set of assumptions assumes that inflows to the river system f
12. 39 215 12 658 447 22 089 5 957 1 241 25 440 107 047 SYR KAZ 43 536 13 441 371 CHI KAZ 17 535 5 693 201 9934 2 679 558 11 441 48 142 CHI KA 19 625 6 045 167 MOR KAZ 101 149 46 649 8 152 95 976 16 664 71 201 104 519 444 310 NOR KAZ 117 219 32 587 9 607 AM TUR 512 000 749 000 18 500 40 000 36 000 2 020 31 490 1 489 110 AMU TUR 701 345 643 286 30 109 SOU TUR 263 000 219 000 1 000 13 000 4 200 58 000 6 330 564 530 0U_TUR 289 285 192 655 535 FER KYR 40 500 37 400 13 300 57 700 26 361 5 500 154 058 3357279 FER KYR 47 385 45 810 12 438 FER TAD 29 797 92 099 11 738 35 214 26 185 4515 43 503 243051 FER TAD 32 591 90 930 16 969 UPA TAG 133 000 208 000 19 800 53 000 21 710 11 010 64 310 510 830 UPA TAD 169 795 167 779 31 811 ZAR TAD 3 203 9901 1 752 3 786 2 815 485 2677 26 129 ZAR TAD 3 498 9r 1 825 UPA AF D D D D D D D D UPA AFG D D D D 2702 700 2828400 222 500 538 199 996 371 234 650 1 309 458 8 832 288 0 3193051 2 400 400 245 538 6 Ratio of value added to land use 7 Ratio of value added to water use 29 Value added by water use baseline USD 1000m3 FER UZB SYR UZB CHI UZB SUR UZB KAS UZB ZAR UZB 50U_UZB SYR_KAZ CHI_KAZ NOR KAZ AMU TUR SOU TUR FER KYR FER TAD UPA TAD ZAR TAD UPA AFG All cot 206 157 249 213 133 162 122 139 142 141 54 B9 302 69 91 54 DIV O 1198 wht 187 79 105 140 23 95 117 206 212 ag 35 45 4371 97 26 57 DIV O 70 ric 57 66 71 66 12 50
13. 5 456 Heservoir volumes Reservoir volume baseline mm3 month Sep Lower Amudarya 2 145 Lower Syrdarya 5645 Middle Amudaryi 17 807 Middle Syrdarya Upper Amudarya Upper Syrdarya Total Reservoir volumes disaggregated by individual reservoir Baseline reservoir ResVol Res_KAM Res_TOK Res_AND Res_KAR Res_CHA Res_SHA Res_ROG Res_NUR Res_TMP Res_TMR Res_DAS Res_ZAR Res_FER Res_AHA Res_ARN Res_KOK Res_KAF Res_ZD Res_TUR Res_SUR Res_KAS Res_TAL Res_BUK Res_NAR Res_FAR Res_VAH Res_CHI Total 7 326 29 509 27 929 90361 Oct 0 6 960 12 823 5 643 5 738 20 617 51 781 mm3 Sep Oct 0 0 19 230 19 015 1751 1 557 2718 2 692 2010 1 781 5128 5 200 0 o 7457 5 250 1091 1 242 3537 5 700 0 0 0 0 45 45 54 69 1000 1 101 1750 1 750 0 0 940 488 482 947 1720 1 831 779 823 757 762 125 125 1880 1 393 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 574 50 378 Nov 6 960 6 879 8 021 20 994 58 700 Nov 0 19 301 1 526 3 350 2 010 5 200 0 7 081 997 5 700 56 811 Dec Jan 451 1 070 702 215 0 135 29 1 455 1 218 2 352 0 0 2 400 4 957 Feb 1 648 882 135 688 4 408 7 761 May 62 370 237 527 204 518 aggregated by river section Dec Jan Feb 0 o o 6 960 7 095 6 960 7 581 7 366 6 483 7 963 7 065 6 141 21 156 20 890 19 544 60 724 57 128 49 433 Dec 0 19 153 1 408 3 350 2 010 5 200 o 7 023 1 290 6 510 o 0 595 137 2 084 1 750 58 8
14. 537 341 6 151 193 7 349 veg 26 361 50 710 40 200 853 800 25 300 996 371 veg 6 327 12170 9 648 204 012 6 072 239129 22 1898 548 569 542 1 870 fru 5 500 16 010 60 020 80 120 73 000 234 650 880 2 562 2 503 12 819 11 580 37 544 oth 1 018 295 6 569 968 9 656 oth 154 968 112 490 37 820 862 790 141 400 1 309 468 oth 18 596 13 488 4539 103 535 16 968 157 136 Total 2 050 O 067 223 142 46 247 6 224 87 030 Total 335 729 780 010 2 053 640 5 163 410 599 499 8 932 288 Total 47187 127 654 392478 940 554 93 985 1 503 858 Water use counterfactural mm3 cot wht ric KYR 257 178 181 TAD 3 172 2 536 1 081 TUR 15 223 5 189 830 UZB 20 211 7 592 2 127 KAZ 2 067 361 286 All 40 930 16 856 5 105 Land use Scenario ha cot wht ric KYR 47 385 45 810 12 438 TAD 205 554 268 482 50 605 TUR 990 530 835 041 30 944 UZB 1 768 672 1 198 094 141 506 KAZ 180 480 52 073 10 145 All 3 193 051 2 400 400 245 638 Labor use Scenario 1000 USD year cot wht ric KYR 11 372 7 330 995 TAD 49 412 42 058 4049 TUR 237 751 133 751 2 476 UZB 434 480 191 696 11321 KA 43 315 8 331 812 All 766 330 384 066 19 653 Ratio of value added to water use These tables allow the user to see how the ratio of value added to water use changes from the baseline to the scenario for each country and crop type Ratio of value added to water use baseline USD 1000m3 cot wht ric KYR 302 47 62 T
15. 5396 0 5396 0 5396 0 5396 0 5396 6 4196 UZB 0 5696 0 56 0 56 KAZ 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 02 0 23 KAZ 0 02 0 02 0 02 Hydropower value added baseline of GDP Hydropower value added Scenario of GDP Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Oct Nov Dec KYR 0 25 0 39 0 38 0 45 0 50 0 46 0 37 0 24 0 19 0 15 0 18 0 23 3 81 KYR 0 23 0 51 0 59 TAD 0 76 0 96 0 80 0 71 0 64 0 61 0 48 0 35 0 19 0 23 0 43 0 60 6 75 TAD 0 57 1 04 0 81 TUR 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 TUR 0 00 0 00 0 00 UZB 0 02 0 04 0 03 0 04 0 05 0 03 0 02 0 02 0 03 0 03 0 03 0 02 0 35 UZB 0 02 0 04 0 03 KAZ 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 03 KAZ 0 00 0 00 0 00 Note Includes monthly costs for operation and for new HEPS depreciation Note Includes monthly costs for operation and fc 6 Summary value added data are also available in per person GDP units Each figure in the tables is equal to value added divided by per person GDP This provides information about the importance of agriculture and hydropower in the basin to each of the riparian countries which controlling for population size Total value added baseline multiple of per capita GDP Total value added Scenario multiple of per capita Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Oct Nov Dec KYR 20711 28633 27851 31
16. BEAM in brief Programmer s Manual User s Manual Questions or problems Contact us M 15 How to modify demographic conditions Demographic conditions are assumed to control domestic and industrial water use in the model Domestic and industrial water uses are implemented in BEAM as constraints i e these water uses must be satisfied before water can be allocated to other uses It is assumed that domestic and industrial water use will vary with population It is possible to select three levels of demographic conditions population levels observed during the 2009 base year projections for the year 2020 and projections for the year 2050 To modify demographic conditions 1 Select a set of demographic conditions using the drop down menu in the section Demography 806 Aral Sea BEAM l Wa Z C localhost 3000 queries new ph Fo e A IS kal o 4 T I T Create a new scenario Scenario name Back T T Crop prices USD ton Electricity price USD MWh Nature extra mm3 year Runoff base year Cotton 1000 0 7 October 55 0 7 Aral north 1000 0 3 Normal 2008 2009 Wheat 300 0 B November 60 0 B Aral south 3 Demography li Rice 500 0 B December 65 0 8 Flexible crops 7 l Cotton M Flexible crop flexibility t Alfalfa 100 0 January 70 0 n T M Medium Wheat T Vegetables 40 0 B February 65 0 B i Rice M Irrigation investments Fruit 450 0 March 60 0 T M Efficiency 96
17. SHA Res NUR Res TMP Res FER Res AHA Res ARN Res KOK Res ARY Res KAF Res ZD Res TUR Res SUR Res KAS Res TAL Res BUK Res CHI Oct 834 314 1 866 455 1 350 3 023 1 449 190 10 584 Nov Dec 0 0 1 295 1 075 314 314 1 866 1 866 628 462 1 350 1 350 0 o 2 881 1 733 3 299 3 299 0 o 0 o 0 o 1 004 184 0 n 0 o 0 o 19 29 138 295 907 139 0 o 0 o 0 o 691 28 0 o 0 0 U o 0 o 0 0 14 892 NAME Jan 1 268 314 1 866 456 1 350 1 283 3 299 173 oo 759 29 1 386 363 12 971 13 580 Mar 0 1 690 1 866 573 1 350 1 400 3 299 O 0000 0 o 254 415 o 141 615 0D 0000 0 o 11 917 Apr 589 1 397 293 255 344 599 o o 0 o 11 628 May o 1 227 314 1 866 524 1 350 1 500 2 088 1 396 548 368 1 752 2 753 242 851 884 961 o o o o 17 663 31 Jun 0 1 346 314 1 866 1 338 1 350 1 136 2 990 1 385 178 357 1 409 4 697 512 148 1 164 1 375 o o 0 0 20 190 Jul 892 314 1 411 1 338 1 350 1 537 2 776 1 602 964 68 945 2 095 791 481 o o 0 o 16 083 Sep 731 4 690 268 3 558 1 350 10 597 Sep o 6 918 10 370 5 783 4 757 19 604 47 432 Sep 17 808 1 751 2 719 2 010 5 129 3 817 1 091 3 537 45 514 Aug 0 745 1 866 848 1 350 2 087 2 206 0 o o 1 379 142 654 19 101 2 520 787 651 o o 0 0 15 018
18. filling in the form that appears and simply submitting it Having done this you will be logged in When filling in the form you will be asked to provide an email address and a password you choose the password yourself 5 Nexttime you want to log in you do this simply by providing your email address and password How to create a new scenario When you log in for the first time you will see the below window 806 Aral Sea BEAM Y c C localhost 3000 users 2 pi us H V I pos O You have 0 scenarios Results are ready for 0 scenarios Pending results for 0 scenarios Create a scenario Use the Create new scenario button to create a No scenarios No scenarios scenario Adjust the parameters as you want them and then click save Run the scenario Once you have created or modified your scenario you can run it by clicking Run CZE Running the scenario will take some time Once you click Run the scenario will run in the background Wait a bit of time and then reload the page CTRL R on Windows CMD R on Mac Download the results When a scenario is finished a Download link appears Here you can download the output files from the scenario Modify your scenario You can modify the parameters of your scenarios Running a modified scenario will overwrite the results of the old scenario Aral Sea BEAM in brief Programmer s Manual User s Manual Questions or problems Contact us You create your first sc
19. has been developed on behalf of the e Programmer s Manual International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea IFAS and USAID by e User s Manual experts from DHI COWI and Global Water Partnership Aral Sea BEAM is provided by EC IFAS Photos by Alfred Diebold Questions or problems Contact us Most important is that you may log in from this window However other services are provided Below all services provided are mentioned one by one 1 You will see a picture two arrows one to the left one to the right and a short text If you click on the arrows you will arrive at another picture with another short text about the model In all there are three pictures and hence three short texts Please note that whenever you find some text in blue you may click on it thereby activating the underlying hyperlink 2 At the bottom you will find hyperlinks to the EC IFAS website the website of Alfred Diebold named Water Unites and model team If you have a question you are most welcome to drop a mail to the model team It will do its best to answer your question within 5 working days 3 Tothe left of the picture there is a heading labelled More information Here you may download a brief and two manuals including the current manual They are available in English and Russian languages 4 First time you want to log in you will have to create an account This you do by clicking the hyperlink just below the heading Don t have an account
20. lowest value of flexible crops 8 Yield 9 Water intensity Yield baseline ton ha cot FER UzB 2 6 SYR UZB 23 CHI UzB 2 5 SUR_UZB 2 5 KAS UFB 2 5 ZAR UZB 2 8 SO UzB 2 2 SYR KAZ 2 2 CHI KAZ 2 2 NOR KAZ 2 2 AMU TUR 1 5 SOU TUR 1 5 FER KYR 23 FER TAD 1 5 UPA TAD 21 ZAR TAD 1 5 UPA APG Drv ol All 2 1 wht 5 0 3 0 3 4 41 2 0 3 4 40 6 1 6 1 2 4 2 3 2 6 235 3 5 2 4 3 5 DIV O 3 0 Water intensity baseline m3 ha FER UZB 5YR UZB CHI UZB SUR UZB KAS UZB ZAR UZB 5OU UZB SYR_KAZ CHI_KAZ NOR_KAZ AMU TUR SOU TUR FER KYR FER TAD UPA TAD ZAR TAD UPA AFG All cot 9 562 10 476 7 514 10 088 14 473 13 610 12 143 11 552 11 340 11 429 15 418 12 817 5 432 12753 15 902 16 235 DI V O 12 796 wht 5 757 5 956 5 714 5 778 7 784 6 4435 6 718 6 873 6 675 7 010 7 183 8 137 3 877 6 547 10 918 11 110 8DIV O 7 058 ric 2 4 28 2 7 2 8 1 0 2T 3 0 1 8 1 8 3 8 5 0 1 0 2 2 4 1 5 5 4 1 spiv ol 3 1 ric 15 013 17 787 16 214 18 000 23 333 22 760 26 027 20 134 24 876 28 582 26 828 26 000 14 586 20 702 21717 21 395 DIV O 20256 alf 19 5 45 6 5 LI 7 5 KI 5 0 14 8 5 0 7 2 7 2 11 8 10 4 8 8 6 3 5 0 5 5 5 0 DIV O 3 8 alf 11 664 11 313 9 848 11 200 17273 15 2313 16 217 12 450 13 489 16 713 22 850 18 308 5 515 13 290 14 952 11 358 8DIV O 14260 Veg 27 5 15 6 2
21. measured in terms of the annual amount of water used per hectare in production or the amount of water used per tonne of output Measures that increase efficiency such as water saving irrigation technologies can release water for other uses and thereby enhance effectiveness The following chart can be used to report on efficiency impacts 1 The charts labelled Water intensity compare per hectare water use in the baseline and scenario Water intensity Kazakhstan Baseline E Scenario Qo p Q Qo lt e E e e e e 35 Which charts can be used to report on equity impacts Equity is defined as a measure the extent to which measures to improve efficiency and effectiveness affect the welfare of different groups in the region Measures that increase overall welfare at the basin scale may have positive welfare impacts on some groups in the basin and negative impacts on other groups Measures to increase efficiency may also have a range of impacts on different groups The following charts can be used to report on equity impacts 1 The chart titled Annual national value added from HEPS on the economy worksheet provides information about how welfare changes resulting from changes to hydropower production are distributed among the riparian countries This chart is also available in GDP units Annual national value added from HEPS E Baseline 10 6 USD E Scenario 2 The chart titled Annual
22. over the months of the year is not meaningful because the monthly results presented in the table are simply equal to the annual value added divided by 12 The disaggregation to monthly data is made in this way to facilitate the presentation of monthly data in the Total income table 3 Hydropower value added These tables allow the user to view the impact of a scenario on the hydropower sector These data are also disaggregated by country and by month Total value added baseline 1000 USD Note includes monthly costs for operation and for new HEPS depreciation Total value added Scenario 1000 USD Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Oct Nov Dec KYR 47 636 65 857 64 057 73 344 78 670 74 664 63 047 46 702 40 112 34 812 39 073 45 077 673 051 KYR 45 591 81 033 91 228 TAD 168 312 196 864 174 799 161 123 152 220 146 859 128 832 109 925 86 440 92 203 121 505 145 465 1 684 547 TAD 144 898 212 129 179 063 TUR 114 092 114 092 114 092 114 092 114 092 114 092 114 092 114 092 114 092 114 092 114 092 114 092 1 369 104 TUR 118 128 118 128 118 128 UZB 456 957 467 510 466 678 468 518 476 402 464217 456 588 454 066 459 029 459290 459 383 458 806 5 547 444 UZB 474 755 484 849 484016 KAZ 41 453 42 380 42 842 43 303 43 303 42 380 41 458 40 535 39 613 39 613 40 534 41 451 498 865 KAZ 42 546 43 525 43 987 All 828 450 886 703 862 468 860 380 864 687 842 212 804 017 765 320 739 286 740 010 774587 804 891 9 773 011 All 825 918 939 664 916 422 Agricu
23. to lakes which is not included in the to lakes rows in the tables above Note This table includes return flow to lakes 32 Reporting A number of charts have been developed in an effort to standardize the reporting of scenario results and facilitate the interpretation of scenario impacts To be consistent with the goals of the project it should be possible to interpret the results of each scenario in terms of impacts on effectiveness efficiency and equity Each chart has been developed with the intention to provide information on the impacts of a scenario on one of these three considerations Which charts can be used to report on effectiveness impacts Effectiveness is defined as a measure of the extent to which water allocation institutions maximize welfare Welfare is defined here at the basin scale Therefore a change to water allocation is considered to increase effectiveness if the change increases overall welfare at the basin scale The following charts can be used to report on effectiveness impacts 1 The chart titled Annual basin income on the economy worksheet compares overall basin value added for the baseline and the current scenario Overall basin income is disaggregated into hydropower and irrigation all other water uses are represented as constraints in the model and therefore do not appear in the basin income calculation The comparison of overall income presented on the left of the chart is the best single measu
24. 0 Res CHI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 3 Average heads are also presented for all reservoirs and hydropower facilities Hydro power heads m HydroHead Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Res KAM 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 Res TOK 178 181 181 181 179 176 172 168 165 164 167 173 Res AND 99 98 97 94 90 85 82 87 97 99 99 99 Res_KAR 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 20 Res CHA 145 145 147 145 131 115 112 126 141 146 147 147 Res SHA 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 Res ROG 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 Res_NUR 189 216 223 222 217 205 186 161 138 133 147 163 Res_TMP 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 Rs TMR EK s d NNNM B ss sd MISES E HE sg B o d _ enn ASHA E i NN 0 Res DAS 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 Res ZAR 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 Res NAR 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Res FAR o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Res VAH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Res CHI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Charts are also available for all tables presented in this section 25 How to view summary agricultural data Summary agricultural data are available on the agriculture worksheet All data are aggregated to the basin wide level and are also disaggregated by country and by crop type The following types of summary data are presented 1 Agricultural value added Agricultural value added is equal to the difference between agricultural production value and agricultural input costs These tables allow the user to view t
25. 0 0 f Alfalfa j T Others 75 0 7 April 50 0 7 improvement ii m New reservoirs in use E hol T r 1 May 40 0 f st ea cos or Input prices 96 of baseline Deshiltum z USD ha l Labor 100 0 2 June 30 0 f T Rogun Volumetric cost 0 0 f T Capital 100 0 2 July 30 0 1 USD 1000m3 i I Kambarata T Others 100 0 f August 40 0 f E Use or conserve inter annual T Yavan keri reservoir storage of max T Allow extra land 96 September 50 0 2 creto 0 0 A Extra land 0 0 f A Aral Sea BEAM in brief Programmer s Manual User s Manual Questions or problems Contact us Y 16 How to modify the flexibility parameter The so called flexibility parameter controls the extent to which cropping patterns may change relative to an observed baseline The model baseline consists of cropping patterns and other conditions observed in 2009 When land and water are allocated according to economic optimization criteria the flexibility parameter controls the extent to which cropping patterns may change The flexibility parameter is modified using the following step 1 Modify the flexibility parameter using the drop down menu under the heading Flexible crop flexibility 8006 Aral Sea BEAM C localhost 3000 queries new 17 Create a new scenario T Scenario name Back T T N m T Crop prices USD ton Electricity price USD MWh Nature extra mm3 year Runoff base year T
26. 0 50 Electricity pricem10 USD MWh 50 50 Electricity pricem11 USD MWh 60 60 Electricity pricem12 USD MWh 65 65 Reservoir buildup 096 0 096 Demographic change in water use households 096 096 Demographic change in water use industry 096 096 Fallow land 096 096 22 How to view summary economic data Summary economic data are available on the economy worksheet Data are presented for both the baseline scenario and the user defined scenario defined using the web interface All data are aggregated to the basin wide and annual levels and are also disaggregated to national and monthly levels The following types of summary data are presented 1 Total value added Total value added is the sum of agricultural value added and hydropower value added For details of how value added is estimated the reader is referred to the BEAM programmer s manual These tables allow the user to view the impact of a scenario on overall welfare relative to the baseline The disaggregated data allow the user to see how the distribution of income changes with respect to geography measured in terms of income to individual countries and with respect to time measured over the months of the year 2 Agricultural value added Agricultural value added is equal to agricultural production value minus agricultural input costs These tables allow the user to view the impact of a scenario on the agriculture sector For the agricultural sector the distribution of value added
27. 0 8 617 923 Res_TMP 46 412 105 738 105 739 105 746 105 746 105 690 39 034 66 744 95 618 88 917 70 679 80 133 1 016 196 Res MR AG Ba ER o B E E 1 Hj Es sd E o ORE JR AR Bo sj o Res DAS o 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 o o o 0 Res ZAR 0 0 o 0 o 0 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 Res NAR 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 o 0 0 o 0 o Res_FAR 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 o Res_VAH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 o Res_CHI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o Hydro power value added baseline 1000 USD Hydrolnc Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Res KAM 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 o 0 0 o Res_TOK 31 635 49 856 48 056 57 343 62 669 58 663 47 046 30 701 24 111 18 811 23 072 29 076 481 039 Res_AND 4 784 5 705 6 140 6 487 6 261 5 135 4 174 3 494 2 827 2 876 3 827 4 793 56 503 Res_KAR 5 508 6 770 7 490 8 066 8 007 6 863 5 762 4 609 3 457 2 835 4 609 5 647 69 623 Res_CHA 14 400 20 570 19 029 20 160 28 044 17 280 14 400 11 520 16 644 17 107 16 680 14 563 210 397 Res_SHA 4 608 5 535 5 997 6 458 6 458 5 5355 4613 3 690 2 768 2 768 3 689 4 606 56 725 Res ROG 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 o 0 0 Res NUR 98 363 124 732 101 512 86 913 78 295 75 204 59 239 42 165 20 499 26 835 53 412 75 368 842 537 Res TMP 4 121 8 504 9 213 9 922 9 922 8 501 3 752 4 110 3 949 3 747 4 267 5 807 75 815 Res TMR EN _ ool o Ec nd B nd B ool B eed Oo _ Bi ia and B ood o Res_DAS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 o Res_ZAR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 o 0 o Res_NAR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 o 0 o Res_FAR 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 Res VAH 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 o 0 0
28. 037 SOU UzB 3 037 552 407 SYR KAZ 453 B7 5 275 47 171 1 051 SYR KAZ 504 93 ri CHI KAZ 200 38 5 134 20 4 80 251 CHI KA 223 AD 4 NOR KAZ 1 156 327 233 1 604 126 529 717 4692 NOR KAZ 1 340 228 275 AM TUR 10 048 5 380 499 914 306 17 247 17 411 AMU TUR 11 515 46271 BOR S8OU TUR 3 371 1 782 26 238 35 531 48 6 031 SOU_TUR 3 708 1 568 22 FER KYR 220 145 194 324 127 22 1018 2 050 FER KYR 257 178 181 FER TAD 380 603 243 458 206 39 311 2 250 FER TAD 415 595 351 UPA TAD 2 115 2271 430 793 289 144 459 6 501 UPA TAD 2 700 1 832 691 ZAR TAD 52 110 27 43 43 6 36 316 ZAR TAD 57 109 39 UPA AFG D D D D D D D D UPA AFG O D O D 34 585 19 252 4507 9 101 7 349 1 8 0 9 656 87 030 40 930 16 856 5 105 5 Land use Land use baseline Land use Scenario cot wht ric alf veg fru oth Total cot wht ric FER UZB 331 200 274800 37 500 56 500 257 500 3 200 155 510 1 176 310 FER_U B 365 477 242 935 32 241 SYR UzB 225 000 273 000 12 200 32 000 110 600 8 300 113 610 774 710 SYR_UZB 277 430 227 7719 13 3 1 CHI UzZB 111 000 133 000 28 000 33 000 133 000 7 000 73 200 518 200 CHI UZB 138 030 112 758 29 012 SUR U B 125 000 117 000 10 000 15 000 121 000 11 000 52 000 461 000 SUR UzB 148 213 98 086 9 489 KAS LUZB 182 000 269 000 12 000 33 000 17 000 55 140 569 940 RAS U B 255 499 203 933 9 695 ZAR UzB 272 000 291 000 33 700 46 000 202 100 820 181 030 1 026 650 ZAR UzB 333 918 230 879 32 075 SOU UzB 217 000 90 700 14 600 92 000 12 600 49 000 211 700 656 600 SOU UzB 250 105 82 213 15 523 SYR KAZ
29. 1 You click the button Run Then the underlying GAMS model is running When it is running the label Click to run the scenario will change into Scenario is running After a couple of minutes the results should be ready Then you will have to reload or refresh the page If you do so and the results are ready the label Scenario is running will change into These are the latest results 2 Having done this the scenario will appear to the left in the window Here you may download the results simply by clicking the hyperlink labelled Download results A zip file containing scenario results will then be downloaded to your computer You may also re run the scenario edit it or delete it At any time it is possible to modify or edit a scenario Likewise it is possible to delete a scenario Please note that whenever you delete a scenario you also delete accompanying results There is no limit for the number of scenarios In the remaining sections of this manual we will look at modifying input data and developing scenarios viewing and working with results and reporting Modifying input data and developing scenarios How to modify input data and develop scenarios The user interface is used to modify input data and develop scenarios A scenario is set of model assumptions defined by the user for the purpose of investigating how these assumptions might affect water use and welfare in the basin It is possible to modify the following ty
30. 187 72214 60601 53403 48717 45896 36408 26457 14096 17129 32552 45162 509823 TAD 43136 78521 61117 TUR 0 0 0 o 0 0 o 0 o 0 o 0 0 TUR 0 0 o UZB 6387 10026 9739 10373 13092 8890 6259 5390 7101 7191 7223 7024 98694 UZB 6545 10026 9739 KAZ 391 469 508 547 547 469 391 313 235 235 313 390 4807 KAZ 386 469 508 Note Includes monthly costs for operation and for new HEPS depreciation Note Includes monthly costs for operation and fc Charts are also available for all tables presented in this section 24 How to view summary hydropower data summary hydropower data are available on the HEPS worksheet The following types of summary data are presented 1 Aggregated value added and generation data are presented at the basin and national level The national level aggregated data include only Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan The other riparian countries are not included because the overwhelming majority of hydropower production in the basin takes place in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Hydro power value added mUSD Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Baseline 163 222 197 195 200 177 139 100 74 75 110 140 1 793 Scenario 134 248 225 231 236 194 128 108 90 113 160 154 2 021 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Baseline 32 50 48 57 63 59 47 31 24 19 23 29 481 Scenario 29 64 74 79 77 64 34 23 17 17 23 40 542 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total 109 137 115 101 93 87 69 50 27 33 62 86 969 82
31. 35 Jan o 19 088 1 224 3 350 1 739 5 200 0 6 745 974 6 510 55 246 Feb o 18 334 1 033 3 105 1 017 5 200 o 5 776 1 290 4 495 48 759 Mar 0 17 194 885 3 350 802 5 200 0 4 924 909 3 870 46 629 Apr 7 197 7 553 4 536 17 665 47 760 Apr 0 16 195 875 3 350 865 5 200 0 3 906 1 290 3 870 46 344 May 6 960 7 923 3 367 16 731 45 585 May 0 15 328 1 189 3 350 1 552 5 200 Jun 2 494 42 3 423 3 518 2 394 Jun 7 002 7 876 2 826 16 839 41 630 Jun 0 14 543 1 701 3 350 1 867 5 200 0 2 506 1 014 2 268 Jul 1 682 728 2 675 2 118 5 705 Jul 6 960 7 148 3 248 16 931 43 490 Jul o 14 733 1 900 3 350 2 010 5 200 0 2 797 1 189 2 268 41 601 Aug 745 4 368 2 520 5 288 1 369 14 290 Aug 892 757 2 311 98 2 511 Aug 6 927 6 391 4 200 18 029 44 850 Aug 16 115 1 869 3 350 2 010 5 167 3 260 1 133 2 268 Reservoir discharges disaggregated by individual reservoir Baseline discharges mm3 month OutDis KYR KYR TAD TAD UZB KAZ TAD TAD UZB UZB TAD TAD FER UZB UZB KAZ KAZ TAD TUR TUR UZB UZB UZB UZB KYR UZB TAD UZB Total Big Big Big Big Big Big Big Big Big Big Big Big Middle Middle Middle Middle Middle Middle Middle Middle Middle Middle Middle Middle Cascade Cascade Cascade Cascade Res TOK Res AND Res KAR Res CHA Res
32. 59 1 619 2 200 280 858 1 789 2 375 1 789 sDIV O 1 417 ric 2 4 2 7 2 6 2T 09 26 29 Li 17 37 4 8 1 0 2 1 4 0 5 2 4 0 spiv o ric 15 012 17 800 16 235 18 021 23 311 22 759 26 051 18 868 23 952 28 625 26 836 25 347 14 552 70 685 21722 21 370 DIV O 20 783 How to view information about reservoir operations Information about reservoir operations is available on the reservoirs worksheet The following types of information are available 1 Reservoir discharges aggregated by country Discharges by country baseline mm3 month Kyrgistan Tadjikstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Total Oct 834 5 830 190 2 598 1 415 10 867 Nov 1 295 5 199 907 4 618 1 369 13 388 1 075 4 208 139 3 789 1 379 10 590 Jan 1 268 4 222 1 415 5 007 1 350 13 262 Feb 1 461 3 461 1 799 5 769 1 632 14 122 Mar 1 690 3 995 141 4 487 1 604 11 917 Apr 1 637 4 226 1 397 3 299 1 370 11 929 May 1 227 5 432 2 995 5 856 1 718 17 228 Jun 1 346 4 725 5 209 7 550 1 350 20 180 Jul 892 4 207 2 095 6 350 1 418 14 962 Reservoir storage changes aggregated by river section Reservoir change by section baseline mm3 month Upper Syrdarya Middle Syrdarya Lower Syrdarya Upper Amudarya Middle Amudarya Lower Amudarya Total Oct 409 140 42 2 659 2 453 713 Nov 717 1 236 0 1 480 3 023 0
33. 6 93 22 54 DIV O 69 Value added by water use Scenario USD 1000m3 ric 66 63 67 64 10 47 47 35 28 57 82 11 59 565 109 B4 8DIV O 68 Value added by land use Scenario USD ha cot FER UzB 1 937 SYR UZB 1 554 CHI UzB 1 780 SUR UZB 2 065 KAS UFB 1 708 FAR LUZB 2093 SOW UzB 1 503 SYR KAZ 1 552 CHI KAZ 1 552 NOR KAZ 1552 AMU TUR B45 SOU TUR 865 FER KYR 1 548 FER TAD 846 UPA TAD 1 324 ZAR TAD B46 UPA AFG DIV O All 1 458 Yield Scenario ton ha cot FER LUzB 2 5 5YR UZB 2 2 CHI UzB 2 4 SUR_UZB 2 7 RAS LIZB 2 3 ZAR UZB 2 7 SOW UZB 2 1 SYR KAZ 2 3 CHI KAZ 2 3 NOR KAZ 2 3 AMU TUR 1 5 SO TUR 1 5 FER KYR 2 2 FER TAD 1 5 UPA TAD 1 9 ZAR TAD 1 5 UPA AFG DIv o All 2 1 wht 1 062 436 565 771 132 575 751 1378 1 378 202 241 360 1733 607 245 607 DI V O 483 wht 49 2 8 40 18 3 9 6 0 6 0 2 4 22 2 6 7 2 3 4 23 3 4 amp DIV O 3 0 Water intensity Scenario m3 ha FER UZzB SYR UFB CHI UFB SUR_UZB KAS UFB ZAR UZB SOU UzB SYR KA CHI KAz NOR KAZ AMU TUR SOU TUR FER KYR FER TAD UPA TAD ZAR TAD UPA AFG All cot 9 560 10 475 7 513 10 087 14 474 13 508 12 143 11 550 11 363 11 432 15 418 12 818 5 424 12 734 15 902 16 295 8DIV ol 12 818 wht 5 759 5 958 5 718 5 781 7 782 6 445 6 714 6919 6 617 6 997 7 183 8 139 3 886 6 543 10 919 11 153 amp DIV O 7 022 ric 201 1 125 1 095 1 153 244 1 0765 1 232 658 6
34. 6 5 22 2 13 9 22 8 15 0 17 8 17 8 15 0 30 4 30 0 15 0 21 8 15 8 21 8 8DIV O 23 8 vem 6 579 7 179 6 534 7 140 8 471 8 283 8 889 7 890 7 465 7 561 8 500 8 333 4 818 7 867 13 312 14 920 8DIV O 7 876 30 fru 8 1 24 8 1 24 2 9 20 6 8 15 15 1 0 5 8 7 8 3 8 5 3 11 1 5 3 DIV O 49 fru 6 250 6 506 6 571 6 727 7 500 5 098 7 429 252 7 168 7 430 8 416 9 155 4 000 8 538 13 079 12371 amp DIV O 7 969 oth 25 9 y 23 2 20 9 135 18 5 5 6 10 0 10 0 4 7 17 9 30 0 54 31 4 24 6 31 4 sDIV O 14 5 oth 6 502 8 001 7 432 8 290 7 143 7 430 6 856 5722 5 992 5 850 7 44 7 583 6 569 7 149 7 137 7 097 DIV O 7374 Charts are also available for all tables presented in this section Total 164 89 136 134 73 112 B7 g9 98 62 50 83 g4 98 73 75 8DIV OI 92 8DIV O 893 Total 13 2 5 5 12 1 10 8 ER 10 2 4 5 6 4 6 4 52 22 323 6 0 10 5 6 3 10 5 DIV O 7 2 Total 8 073 8 157 7 395 8 106 10 754 2 838 10 249 2 818 2 991 10 560 11 592 10 683 6 106 9257 12 726 12 094 DIV O 9 743 FER UZB 5YR UZB CH UZB SUR UZB KAS UZB ZAR UZB 5OU UZB SYR KAZ CHI KAZ NOR KAZ AMU TUR S5OU TUR FER KYR FER TAD UPA TAD ZAR TAD UPA AFG All cot 203 148 237 205 118 154 124 135 137 136 51 67 285 685 aa 52 DIV O 114 wht is4 13 99 133 17 89 112 199 208 42 44 44
35. 67 418 458 1 015 133 7 980 351 All 4 654 561 1 159 958 348 036 Agricultural production value baseline 1000 USD Agricultural production Scenario 1000 USD AgriSales cot wht ric alf VEE fru oth Total cot wht ric KYR 91 458 83 882 14 860 36 605 15 817 9 303 62 631 314 566 KYR 102 635 98 536 13 328 TAD 324 500 253 842 61 244 48 810 39 903 67 106 232 023 1 047 428 TAD 382 543 214 418 120 004 TUR 1 312 500 678 240 46 540 52 940 48 859 195 697 56 459 24 391 235 TUR 1 454 858 573 584 73 088 UZB 3 689 000 1 503 390 187 729 287 964 807 521 210 255 1 008 352 7 684 211 UZB 4 205 472 1 218 683 175 100 KAZ 352 000 67 666 15 8923 136 633 16 140 33 255 54 223 685 840 KAZ 392 256 58 115 18 082 All 5 769 468 2 587 020 346 296 562 952 028 240 515 615 1 423 688 12 133 280 All 6 627 864 2163336 400 602 Agricultural production baseline ton year Agricultural production Scenario ton year AgriProd cot wht ric alf weg fru oth Total cot wht ric KYR 91 468 279 506 20 719 366 050 395415 20 572 835 080 2018010 KYR 102 635 328 454 20 656 TAD 324 500 846 140 162 488 488 104 997 569 142 124 3 093 541 6 061 566 TAB 382 543 714 723 240 007 TUR 1 312 500 2 260 800 93079 529 401 1 221 484 434 882 752 784 6 604 930 TUR 1 454 858 1911947 146177 UZB 3 689 000 5 011 300 375 459 286879640 20188041 467 233 13 444 583 46 055 366 UZB 42954172 4062276 357 199 KA 352 000 225554 31544 1366325 405 488 73 899 656 295 3 308 405 KA 2392255 193 719 36 165 All 5 769 468 6 623 400 697 589 5629520 23 205 99
36. 7 1145510 189572493 64 049 277 All 6 627 864 7 211 119 601 204 26 Water use These tables allow the user to view the impact of a scenario on agricultural water use The disaggregated data allow the user to see how impacts are distributed by country and crop type Land use These tables allow the user to view the impact of a scenario on agricultural land use The disaggregated data allow the user to see how impacts are distributed by country and crop type Labor use These tables allow the user to view the impact of a scenario on agricultural labor use The disaggregated data allow the user to see how impacts are distributed by country and crop type Water use baseline mm3 WaterUse cot wht KYR 220 145 TAD 2 547 2 984 TUR 13 419 7 162 UZB 16 590 9 219 RAZ 1 809 452 All 34 585 19 962 Land use baseline ha LandUse cot wht KYR 40 500 37 400 TAD 166 000 310 000 TUR 875 000 968 000 UZB 1 463 200 1 448 000 KAZ 158 000 55 000 All 2 702 700 2 828 400 Labor use baseline 1000 USD year LabrUse cot wht EYE 9720 5 984 TAD 39 840 49 600 TUR 210 000 154 880 UZB 351 168 231 680 KAZ 37921 10400 All 548 548 452 544 ric 194 700 525 2 841 247 4507 ric 13 300 32 800 19 500 148 000 8 800 222 500 ric 1 064 2 624 1 558 11 840 704 17 800 alf 324 1 304 1 152 4 308 2 013 9 101 alf 57 700 92 000 53 000 307 500 127 599 538 199 alf 4616 7 360 42340 24 500 10 240 51 056 veg 127
37. 791 34 825 358 71 1124 47 626 837 113 994 308 056 CHI_KAZ 42 778 35 185 290 MOR KAZ 225 344 113 7291 30 691 11370565 249 965 71 201 488 834 2 315382 MOR KA 254 361 77 083 35279 AM TUR 918 000 1686000 92079 A14 371 1 085 484 13 691 562 884 4782 509 AMU TUR 1 075 878 1 412 057 145 351 50W TUR 394 500 574 800 1 000 115 030 176 000 421 191 189 900 1 822 4121 SOU TUR 478 980 499 890 B26 FER KYR 91 458 279606 279719 366 050 395 415 20 672 835 080 2 018 010 FER KYR 107 635 328 454 26 656 FER_TAD 44 695 322 347 48 173 176 072 571 056 23 834 1 366 956 2 553 133 FER TAD 47726 310 592 67 985 UPA TAG 275 000 489 140 109 136 293 104 355123 122728 1579 7 35 3 233 9606 UPA TAG 3239 794 370 532 164711 ZAR TAD 4 805 34 553 51 9 18 228 51 390 2 562 146 950 274 467 ZAR TAD 5 123 33 399 7311 UPA AFG D D D D O O O D UPA AFG O O O All 5 769 468 8623400 697 589 5629520 23 205997 1 145810 182982493 64049277 All 6 627 864 7211119 801 204 Water use baseline mm3 Water use counterfactural mm3 cot wht ric alf veg fru oth Total cot wht ric FER UZB 3 157 1 582 563 559 1 694 20 1 408 9 095 FER_U B 3 484 1 399 454 SYR UZB 2 357 1 525 217 302 794 54 909 6319 SYR UZB 2 906 1357 238 CHI UzZB 534 760 454 225 669 46 544 3 832 CHI UZB 1 037 642 471 SUR UZB 1 251 676 180 168 564 7a 514 2737 SUR UZB 1 495 567 171 KAS_UZB 2 634 2 0904 280 570 144 5 401 6 129 RAS U B 3 695 1 587 226 ZAR UZB 3 702 1 875 707 732 1 674 5 1 345 10 100 ZAR UZB 4544 1 488 730 SOU UzB 2 535 606 380 1 492 112 364 1 448 7
38. 889 34204 32463 27412 20305 17440 15136 16988 19599 292 631 KYR 19822 35232 39664 TAD 88585 103613 91999 84802 80116 77294 67806 57855 45495 48528 63950 76561 886 604 TAD 76262 111647 94244 TUR 17553 17553 17553 17553 17553 17553 17553 17553 17553 17553 17553 17553 210 631 TUR 18174 18174 18174 UZB 157571 161210 160923 161558 164277 160075 157444 156574 158286 158376 158408 158209 1 912 912 UZB 163709 167189 166902 KAZ 3513 3592 3631 3670 3670 3592 3513 3435 3357 3357 3435 3513 42 277 KAZ 3606 3689 3728 Agricultural value added baseline multiple of per capita GDP Agricultural value added Scenario multiple of per Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Oct Nov Dec KYR 6957 6957 6957 6957 6957 6957 6957 6957 6957 6957 6957 6957 83483 KYR 7300 7300 7300 TAD 31398 31398 31398 31398 31398 31398 31398 31398 31398 31398 31398 31398 376781 TAD 33126 33126 33126 TUR 17553 17553 17553 17553 17553 17553 17553 17553 17553 17553 17553 17553 210631 TUR 18174 18174 18174 UZB 151185 151185 151185 151185 151185 151185 151185 151185 151185 151185 151185 151185 1814218 UZB 157163 157163 157163 KAZ 3122 3122 3122 3122 3122 3122 3122 3122 3122 3122 3122 3122 37469 KAZ 3219 3219 3219 Hydropower value added baseline multiple of per capita GDP Hydropower value added Scenario multiple of pe Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Oct Nov Dec KYR 13754 21677 20894 24932 27247 25506 20455 13348 10483 8179 10031 12642 209147 KYR 12522 27931 32364 TAD 57
39. 98 536 13 328 FER TAD 44 595 96 704 24 087 17 607 22 842 10 725 102 522 319 182 FER_TAD 47 726 93 208 33 993 UPA TAD 275 000 146 742 54 568 29 310 14 605 55 228 118 480 693 933 UPA TAD 329 794 111 190 84 355 ZAR TAD 4 805 10 396 2 589 1 893 2 456 1 153 11 021 24 313 ZAR TAD 5 123 10 020 3 656 UPA_AFG O O O O O O O O UPA AFG O O O All 5 769 468 2 587 020 346 296 562 952 928 240 515 616 1 423 588 12 133 280 All 6 627 864 2 163 336 400 602 28 3 Agricultural production 4 Water use Agricultural production baseline ton year Agricultural production Scenario ton year cot wht ric alf veg fru oth Total cot wht ric FER UZB 656 000 1 371 300 91406 1 099 030 7 086 400 25 857 4 282 147 314812150 FER UZB 933 944 1 188 530 77703 SYR_UZB 508 000 808 000 33 954 147 592 1 840 311 19 792 874 429 4232178 SYR UzB 602 457 635 449 35 794 CHI UFB 275 000 452 000 76 000 213 349 3 519 750 56 966 1 700 678 6 294 743 CHI_UZB 330 955 367 920 75 935 SUR U B 346 000 478 000 28 152 112 500 2 686 200 26 822 1 283 558 4971362 SUR UzB 398 141 388 898 25 951 RAS UB 462 000 538 000 12 000 165 000 236 583 2 306 755 496 21 1385 RAS UFB 594 336 373 695 8 885 ZAR UZB 767 000 1 002 000 90 415 682 069 4617 715 1 619 3 345 540 10 505 358 ZAR UzB 905 311 754 349 82 738 SOU UzB 474 000 362 000 435 502 460 000 201 082 333 861 1 192 745 3 067 190 SOU UzB 530 398 320 335 45 195 SYR KAZ 87 365 77 437 795 158 145 105 897 1 861 253 457 684 967 SYR KAZ 95 117 80 451 6465 CHI KAZ 39
40. A AFG O O O All 40991955 1 404 749 298 581 427 554 316 467 418 458 1 015 133 7 980 351 All 4 654 561 1 159 958 348 035 Agricultural production value baseline 1000 USD Agricultural production Scenario 1000 USD cot wht ric alf veg fru oth Total cat wht ric FER UZB 856 000 411 390 45 703 109 903 283 155 11 640 321 161 2 039 353 FER UZB 933 944 359 589 38 851 SYR UZB 508 000 242 400 16 977 14 769 73 512 8 907 65 582 930 247 SYR UZB 602 487 194 535 17 897 CHI UZB 276 000 135 500 38 000 21 335 140 790 25 634 127 551 764 910 CHI UzB 330 955 110 376 37 965 SUR UzZB 345 000 143 400 14 091 11 250 107 445 12 070 97 024 731283 SUR UZB 398 141 116 559 12 976 RAS UZB 462 000 161 400 5 000 16 500 9 463 1 038 56 662 713063 KAS UZB 584235 112 108 4441 ZAR UZB 767 000 300 600 45 207 68 207 184 709 729 250 916 1 617 368 ZAR UZB 905 311 2209 305 41 369 SOU UzB 474 000 108 500 21 51 46 000 8 043 150 237 69 456 898 087 SOW UFB 530 398 96 101 24 598 SYR KAZ 87 365 23231 398 15 815 4336 838 19 010 150 893 SYR KAZ 95 117 24 135 323 CHI KAZ 39 201 10 448 179 7 112 1 905 377 8 550 67 862 CHI KAZ 42 778 10 855 145 MOR KAT 225 344 33 087 15 346 113 706 9 999 32 040 36 663 467 085 NOR KAT 254361 23 125 17 614 AMU TUR 918 000 505 800 46 040 41 437 43 819 6 161 42 216 1 503 473 AMU TUR 1 025 878 423 517 72 675 SOU TUR 394 500 172 440 500 11 503 5 040 189 5365 14 243 787 762 sOU TUR 428 980 149 967 413 FER KYR 91 468 83 882 14 860 36 605 15 817 9 303 62 631 314 556 FER KYR 102 535
41. AD 87 42 106 TUR 58 as B1 UZB 168 g7 55 KAZ 141 90 57 All 119 70 66 Ratio of value added to land use baseline USD ha cot wht ric KYR 1 640 1 825 903 TAD 1337 401 2 263 TUR 882 283 2 160 UZB 1903 620 1 054 KAZ 1 610 623 1595 All 1 517 497 1 342 alf 75 22 36 52 54 47 alf 422 319 787 724 855 570 veg 3 16 71 46 3 43 veg 14 173 601 332 24 318 fru 319 320 312 311 6 224 Green shaded cells are highest value red shaded cells are lowest value of flexible crops fru 1 277 37717 2 847 2 210 42 1783 Green shaded cells are highest value red shaded cells are lowest value of flexible crops 27 oth 14 244 151 113 21 105 oth 92 1751 1 181 857 142 775 Ratio of value added to land use These tables allow the user to see how the ratio of value added land use changes from the baseline to the scenario for each country and crop type Ratio of value added to water usi Total cot wht 94 KYR 285 446 79 TAD 81 40 58 TUR 55 36 114 UZB 158 95 71 KAZ 136 101 92 All 114 69 Ratio of value added to land use Total cot wht 572 KYR 1 548 1 733 918 TAD 1 241 381 667 TUR 851 268 1019 UZB 1 811 599 738 KAZ 1 555 698 693 All 1 458 453 9 Yield These tables allow the user to see how crop yields change from the baseline to the scenario for each country and crop type 10 Water intensity These tables allow the user to see how per hectare water use changes from the
42. B 651 318 296 524 37 678 OF O25 125 351 10 315 269 491 1 488 502 FER UZB 708 080 258 042 31 952 SYR UZB 358 950 128 286 14 356 7 9855 5 704 5470 30 135 550 897 SYR UZB 431 035 gg 323 15 035 CHI UZB 207 402 80 005 32 008 14 339 59 128 22 736 104713 520331 CHI UZB 245 653 63 448 31 59 SUR UzZB 258 750 94 494 11 951 6 070 33 154 7 516 77 680 501 515 SUR UzZB 306 5465 75 669 10 945 BAS UZB 349 524 48 958 3 432 2 504 975 706 39 147 450 296 KAS LIZB 436 338 26 864 2 367 ZAR UzB 598 904 178 962 37 996 58 455 50 619 389 194434 1129759 ZAR UZB 598 950 132 797 34 505 SsOU UzB 339 894 70 896 18 627 26 496 307 129951 23 561 609 732 5OU UzB 375 534 61 736 19 754 SYR KAZ 53 130 17 940 302 11 132 578 324 11 073 104 479 5YR KAZ 58 150 18 517 244 CHI KAZ 28 392 8 068 135 5 006 250 146 4980 45 988 CHI KAZ 30 650 8 328 110 NOR KAT 162 834 14 488 13 501 93 359 233 2 553 4053 290 665 NOR KAT 181 970 9 504 15 558 AMU TUR 539 764 192 715 42 059 32 957 21 715 5 325 32 391 666 949 AMU TUR 592 447 154 724 66 232 SOU TUR 231 966 80 898 285 8 747 2461 165 524 12 268 502 150 SOU TUR 250 202 69 437 234 FER KYR 55 439 58 249 12 014 24 373 369 7 026 14 781 197 013 FER KYR 73351 79 388 10 666 FER_TAD 26 281 58 20 21 575 10 142 6 765 6 856 88 949 220 775 FER_TAD 27 584 55 199 30 361 UPA TAD 192 806 59 798 50 331 18 074 1 275 50 659 98 415 471 368 UPA TAG 224 850 41 058 75 548 ZAR TAD 2 625 6 257 2 319 1 090 P27 952 9 562 23732 ZAR TAD 2961 5 934 3 265 UPA AFG O O O O O O O O UP
43. Baseline 2 002 2 428 1 771 1 624 1 747 1 780 1 641 1 434 1 587 1 506 1 525 1 531 20 576 Scenario 1 420 2 868 2 192 2 028 2 103 1 963 1 419 1 443 1 722 2 496 2 742 1 824 24 220 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Baseline 345 543 451 531 607 690 653 480 516 339 289 294 5 737 Scenario 288 783 857 837 808 778 394 288 288 288 288 513 6 410 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Baseline 1 399 1 513 997 774 709 772 737 675 497 583 824 942 10 423 Scenario 865 1712 1 012 874 870 867 741 868 858 1 621 2 043 1 004 13 334 2 Hydropower generation and value added are also presented for individual reservoirs and hydropower facilities Hydro power generation baseline MWh HydroProd Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Res KAM o 0 0 0 o 0 0 o 0 0 o 0 o Res_TOK 344 701 542 930 451 328 531 190 607 272 689 720 652 921 479 535 515 703 339 020 288 792 293 519 5 736 631 Res_AND 71 686 71 085 70 468 68 674 65 444 61 583 59 470 63 352 70 247 71 871 71 672 71 860 817 412 Res_KAR 79 921 82 587 84 995 84 995 84 142 84 142 84 995 84 995 84 995 64 271 84 995 82 691 987 724 Res_CHA 144 000 198 835 148 749 144 000 256 629 144 000 144 000 144 000 410 816 426 246 272 991 147 261 2 581 527 Res_SHA 68 169 68 254 68 254 68 254 68 254 68 254 68 254 68 254 68 254 68 254 68 215 68 129 818 799 Res ROG 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 o Res_NUR 1 247 250 1 358 858 841 717 620 805 559 247 626 701 592 386 527 061 341 644 447 250 667 644 787 36
44. a In other words the BEAM model allocates water across time and space to different uses so that the economic value of water use is maximized The purpose of the BEAM model is to explore whether it Box1 Aral Sea basin at a glance The Aral Sea basin comprises 5 countries with a total population of a little more than 60 million over an area of 4 mllion km The 5 countries are Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan They are all former Soviet republics Also the basin comprises parts of Afghanistan and lraq A characteristic feature of the basin is that there are large differences in available water resources from Tajikistan with an average of about 5 000 m available per person annually to Turkmenistan with a little less than 300 m available per person annually Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic include the major glaciated mountains of the basin and their upstream position is advantageous for water availability and not least hydropower In contrast Kazakhstan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are in a downstream position They are largely dependent on inflow from the two upstream countries Agriculture is a key component of the basin s economy and accounts for as much as 90 of its water use However hydropower may account for an increasing share of water use in future insofar as the upstream countries have planned various dams to increase hydropower production such as the Rogun dam on the Vakhsh River in Tajikistan I
45. baseline to the scenario for each country and crop type Yield baseline ton ha Yield Scenario ton ha cot wht ric alf veg fru oth Total cot wht KYR 23 7 5 22 63 15 0 3 8 5 4 6 0 KYR 2 2 7 2 TAD 2 0 27 50 5 3 19 7 93 27 5 7 8 TAD 1 9 37 TUR 1 5 33 47 10 0 30 4 7 2 195 3 2 TUR 15 23 UZB 2 5 3 5 2 5 9 4 23 6 58 15 5 89 UZB 24 34 KAZ 2 2 25 3 6 10 7 15 9 1 0 5 1 5 5 KAZ 2 2 2 7 All 2 1 3 0 3 1 8 8 23 3 49 14 5 7 2 All 21 3 0 Water intensity baseline m3 ha Water intensity scenario m3 ha cot wht ric alf veg fru oth Total cot wht KYR 5 4 29 14 6 5 6 48 40 6 6 6 1 KYR 5 4 3 9 TAD 15 3 g6 21 3 14 2 10 6 11 8 73 116 TAD 15 4 94 TUR 15 3 7 4 26 8 21 7 8 5 9 1 7 8 11 4 TUR 15 4 7 4 UZB 11 3 5 4 19 2 14 0 72 ZA 7 5 90 UZB 11 4 5 3 KAZ 11 4 7 0 28 1 15 7 7 5 ne 5 8 10 4 KA 115 6 9 All 12 8 7 1 20 3 14 3 7 4 8 0 ne 2 7 All 12 8 75 0 Charts are also available for all tables presented in this section How to view agricultural data that are disaggregated by planning zone Agricultural data that are disaggregated by planning zone are available on the agricultureByZone worksheet Data presented are the same as data presented on the agriculture worksheet The following types of summary data are presented 1 Agricultural value added 2 Agricultural production value 204 582 618 001 225 854 617 998 Agricultural value added baseline 1000 USD year Agricultural value added Scenario 1000 USD year cot wht ric alf veg fru ath Total cot wht ric FER UZ
46. e crop flexibility Alfalfa 100 0 f January M Medium E Wheat Vegetables 40 0 8 February Rice M Irrigation investments Fruit 450 0 March Md Efficiency 96 0 0 f F Alfalfa Others 75 0 7 April 50 0 f improvement m New reservoirs in use x l TT o May 40 0 ea cos O Input prices 96 of baseline Dashilium O USD ha Labor 100 0 f June 30 0 f E E Rogun x Volumetric cost 0 0 f Capital 100 0 f July 30 0 f USD 1000m3 E Kambarata Others 100 0 2 August 40 0 f Use or conserve inter annual Yavan pans reservoir storage of max Allow extra land 96 September 50 0 3 ONG 0 0 A Extra land 0 0 8 Aral Sea BEAM in brief Programmer s Manual User s Manual Questions or problems Contact us 13 How to introduce new reservoirs and hydropower facilities It is possible to include proposed reservoirs and or hydropower facilities in a scenario to estimate the impact of these facilities on basin wide welfare A total of four proposed projects can be included Dashtijum Rogun Kambarata 1 and Yavan To include proposed reservoirs and or hydropower facilities 1 Tick in the reservoirs and or hydropower facilities you would like to include in the section under the heading New reservoirs in use 800 J Aral Sea BEAM Q 3 localhost 3000 queries new NG us e v I A O Create a new scenario Scenario name Back Crop prices USD ton Electricity price USD MWh Nature extra mm3 year
47. e of the maximum capacity If a negative value is entered the end of period storage will be less than the beginning of period storage in other words inter annual storage will be used If a positive value is entered the end of period storage will be greater than the beginning of period storage inter annual storage will be conserved The option to use or conserve inter annual storage is applied to Toktogul and Nurek reservoirs only The parameter is modified as follows 1 Modify the inter annual storage parameter by changing the value in the section Use or conserve inter annual reservoir storage of max The value should be given in units of percentage of maximum reservoir capacity eoo Aral Sea BEAM e Q 5 localhost 3000 queries new ia us il y I HO i 1 Create a new scenario Scenario name Back l Crop prices USD ton Electricity price USD MWh Nature extra mm3 year Runoff base year Cotton 1000 0 f October 55 0 4 Aral north 1000 0 2 Normal 2008 2009 a l Wheat 300 0 7 November 60 0 7 Aral south 3000 0 7 Demography Rice 500 0 f December 65 0 A Flexible crops 7 l Cotton M Flexible crop flexibility Alfalfa 100 0 January 70 0 M Medium Wheat Vegetables 40 0 8 February 65 0 8 Rice M Irrigation investments Fruit 450 0 March 60 0 M Efficiency 96 0 0 f Alfalfa i Others 75 0 8 April 50 0 B improvement l 2 New reservoirs in use z
48. enario by clicking on the blue button labeled Create new scenario Having done this the window below will appear eoe y Aral Sea BEAM N 7 ta C localhost 3000 queries new Create a new scenario y T 4 Crop prices USD ton Electricity price USD MWh Nature extra mm3 year Runoff base year i Cotton 1000 0 2 October 55 0 3 Aral north 1000 0 7 Normal 2008 2009 Wheat 300 0 2 November 60 0 f Aral south 3000 0 f Demography z 1 2009 a Rice 500 0 f December 65 0 1 Flexible crops M F Colin M Flexible crop flexibility alfa 0 anuary 0 5 T y a Medium Vegetables 40 0 B February 65 0 8 M T 0 B Rice M Irrigation investments i h ad Midia M Efficiency 96 0 0 f Others 75 0 2 April 50 0 7 improvement m New reservoirs in use m Input prices 96 of baseline May 40 0 Dashtijum E spectat 0 0 i Labor 100 0 f June 30 0 1 m Rogun Volumetric cost 0 0 f Capital 100 0 3 July 30 0 7 UNTEN USD 1000m3 Others 100 0 f August 40 0 M E Use or conserve inter annual x E Yavan reservoir storage of max Allow extra land 96 50 0 7 DIM 0 0 A Extra land 0 0 8 A Aral Sea BEAM in brief Programmer s Manual User s Manual Questions or problems Contact us Y Briefly speaking you give your scenario a name make choices in the window and clic
49. epresent reservoir and hydropower facilities The reservoir node type includes both existing and planned reservoirs River nodes represent junctions where two or more upstream nodes come together and or where two or more downstream nodes diverge Planning zone nodes represent consumptive water use locations Return flow nodes represent return flows from consumptive water use locations Lake nodes represent terminal lakes The arrows shown between nodes indicate the direction of flow To interpret the schematic a color scheme is used to identify different node types To view the model schematic 1 Differences between left and right side af rivers are nat shown Mumbers in parentheses describe base year water supply and reservoir volumes Sr SYR 00 _ x CHLKAZ 00 Navigate to the schematic worksheet grdarga Basin Amgdarya Basin E a l Ll Cd R 1 l a e Lak Aud t l 7 L pang l Lak Syr NORTHERN ARAL SEA SOUTHERN ARAL SEA 21 How to view assumptions used in a model scenario The output user interface always presents results from two scenarios the baseline scenario and the scenario that was defined using the input user interface This facilitates the comparison of scenario results to the baseline To keep track of assumptions used in a scenario all assumptio
50. f so it will have some serious impacts on downstream agriculture Climate change is expected to have a significant impact in the basin The countries will face warmer temperatures a changing hydrology and more extreme weather Water scarcity will become a major challenge may be possible to change existing water allocation patterns in ways that enhance overall welfare in the Aral Sea basin The BEAM model also facilitates the estimation of the economic impact of changes to water allocation patterns on different groups within the basin including the riparian states as well as different sectors such as irrigation and hydropower The model further allows the user to estimate the economic impact of changes to physical infrastructure such as new reservoirs and irrigation efficiency improvements The BEAM simulation runs on a monthly time step for one year The simulation period corresponds to the hydrological year used for water planning in the Aral Sea basin This hydrological year begins on 1 October and ends on 30 September How to use this manual This manual provides instructions for running BEAM and viewing results using the BEAM user interface The BEAM user interface is accessed from the Internet A specially designed website hosts the user interface which consists of a web portal that is used to define scenarios run the model and access results The web portal enables the user to select model input parameter values using input boxes and pul
51. he impact of a scenario on the welfare of the agricultural sector The disaggregated data allow the user to see how the welfare impacts of a given scenario are distributed by country and by crop type 2 Agricultural production value Agricultural production value is equal to the product of agricultural production value and crop sakes price These tables allow the user to view the impact of a scenario on gross revenue to agriculture The disaggregated data allow the user to see how impacts are distributed by country and crop type 3 Agricultural production Agricultural production is equal to the product of crop yield times crop area These tables allow the user to view the impact of a scenario on crop production The disaggregated data allow the user to see how impacts are distributed by country and crop type Agricultural value added baseline 1000 USD year Agricultural value added Scenario 1000 USD cot wht ric alf veg fru oth Total cot wht ric EYE 66 439 68 249 12 014 24 373 369 7 026 14 281 192 013 KYR 73 351 79 388 10 666 TAB 221912 124 262 74 225 29 306 8 767 60 477 195 226 715 875 TAD 255 405 102191 109 174 TUR 771750 273 515 42 345 41 704 24175 170 849 44 659 1 359 099 TUR 642 549 224 161 66 466 UzB 2 784 742 898 1265 156 058 222 774 283 288 177 083 739 151 5 261 232 UZB 3 202 436 717 879 145 818 RAZ 254 356 40 496 14039 109 497 605 3 033 20 106 442132 RAZ 280 720 36 349 15 912 All 4099199 1404 749 2956651 427 554 316 4
52. hen increase the total irrigated area in one or more planning zones if this is economically optimal If the user exercises this option then total irrigated area of all planning zones is increased by a user specified percentage relative to the observed baseline It is not possible to use different percentages in different planning zones If the irrigated area increases only crops selected as flexible crops can expand to fill the newly irrigated area To allow for new irrigated lands to be brought into production 1 8000 JAral Sea BEAM Enter the percentage increase to be allowed in the cell labelled Extra land in the section Allow extra land C localhost 3000 queries new Scenario name Crop prices USD ton Cotton 1000 0 3 Wheat 300 0 7 Rice 500 0 B Alfalfa 100 0 7 Vegetables 40 0 F Fruit 450 0 7 Others 75 0 7 Input prices 96 of baseline Labor 100 0 f Capital 100 0 7 Others 100 0 3 Allow extra land 96 Extra land 0 0 8 Aral Sea BEAM in brief Create a new scenario Electricity price USD MWh October 55 0 8 November 60 0 B December 65 0 8 January 70 0 8 February 65 0 2 March 60 0 8 April 50 0 7 May 40 0 8 June 30 0 July 30 0 2 August 40 0 7 September 50 0 7 Programmer s Manual 10 Nature extra mm3 year Aral north 1000 0 2 Aral south 3000 0 7 Flexible crops Cotton M Wheat M Rice M Alfalfa M New reservoirs in use Da
53. her information about the water balance of the basin Other information about the water balance of the basin is available on the worksheets waterBalance and balanceZoneDetail Much of this information is used to check water balances within the GAMS model and for other quality assurance purposes However some of the information on these worksheets may be useful for interpreting scenario impacts This information is summarized here 1 Inflows to terminal lakes in the basin are presented in the tables called Lake inflows on the waterBalance worksheet This information is useful for interpreting the impact of a particular scenario on inflows to the Aral Sea and other terminal lakes Lake inflows baseline mm3 month Lake inflows Scenario mm3 month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Now Dec Aral Sea North 1521 1207 1507 1003 1191 1 527 1 165 963 705 674 669 819 Aral Sea North 1202 1735 1507 Aral Sea South 1101 2501 2970 1876 1585 2 549 ans 300 300 300 300 1328 Aral Sea South 1406 2555 2 970 Golden Lake 2 33 D 42 52 D 93 175 228 274 125 59 Golden Lake 2 32 D Lake Ayd 55 55 55 55 55 55 5 5 5 5 5 5 Lake Ayd 55 55 222 Syr Darya Lakes 47 113 39 108 134 73 222 325 466 417 376 184 Syr Darya Lakes 47 113 39 Amu Darya Lakes E9 841 231 227 2EB 75 268 5B9 1 003 511 591 160 Amu Darya Lakes E9 E41 231 All lakes 2815 4749 4602 3312 3 305 4579 2 162 2377 2707 2181 2067 2655 All lakes 2801 4831 4769 Note This table includes return flow
54. ible crop flexibility ka ei Medium Vegetables 40 0 8 February 65 0 8 Rice M Irrigation investments Fruit 450 0 4 March 60 0 f i E Md Efficiency 96 0 0 f Others 75 0 7 April 50 0 7 improvement m New reservoirs in use re PT i i May 40 0 ea cos 0 EH Input prices 96 of baseline Dashilkuin O USDha Labor 100 0 2 June 30 0 f i Rogun Volumetric cost 0 0 F Capital 100 0 f July 30 0 7 Ed USD 1000m3 Others 100 0 2 August 40 0 2 Use or conserve inter annual z Yavan reservoir storage 96 of max Allow extra land a 50 0 7 Pm 0 0 2 Extra land 0 0 8 A Aral Sea BEAM in brief Programmer s Manual User s Manual Questions or problems Contact us Y 11 How to modify the allocation of water to the Aral Sea When water is allocated according to economic optimization criteria the allocation is constrained so that flows will reach the Aral Sea i e Aral Sea demands must be satisfied before water can be allocated to other uses The Aral Sea is divided into northern and southern parts because of the dike that has been built to conserve the northern portion of the sea It is possible to increase the amount of water reaching each sea in order to investigate the economic impact of reserving more water for the Aral Sea The baseline quantities allocated to the Aral Sea depend on the hydrological conditions selected for the scenario If Normal 2008 2009 conditions are selected under Runoff base year
55. ible crops S ud Cotton M Flexible crop flexibility li s Wheat M Vegetables 40 0 8 February 65 0 8 T Rice M Irrigation investments Fruit 450 0 March 60 0 T Alfalfa M Efficiency 96 0 0 B ii Others 75 0 8 April 50 0 8 improvement A New reservoirs in use pa um T May 40 0 ea cos oR T Input prices 96 of baseline z Dashtijum O USD ha Labor 100 0 f June 30 0 1 T E Rogun Volumetric cost 0 0 f T Capital 100 0 3 July 30 0 2 USD 1000m3 I un T Others 100 0 f August 40 0 F Use or conserve inter annual T Yavan reservoir storage of max T Allow extra land September 50 0 5 ieee oog Extra land 0 0 f A Aral Sea BEAM in brief Programmer s Manual User s Manual Questions or problems Contact us Y How to modify crop input factor prices It is possible to modify the prices of inputs to crop production including labor capital and a third aggregate input called Others that includes non capital factors such as fertilizer seeds fuel and pesticides Crop input factor prices are modified using the following step 1 Modify crop input factor prices by changing the percentage terms listed in the section Input prices All input factor prices are adjusted using percentage terms that relate scenario prices to baseline prices These percentages are applied throughout the study area It is not possible to adjust factor prices by cro
56. input data files iA pup je O 7 Path to file i CData Ara lSea BEAM webtest3 i 1 Base Scenario 2 Solver status 1 1 3 Model status 2 2 z 5 Summary text amp 7 B8 How is the output Excel file organized The output user interface consists of a number of worksheets that hold output from the GAMS model These worksheets are organized into the following four groups 1 The frontpage worksheet with the control button that is used to import GAMS model output 2 A worksheet called schematic that holds the model schematic 3 Aset of worksheets with black colored tabs holding summary output from the GAMS model 4 A set of worksheets with blue colored tabs holding direct output from the GAMS model The data presented on the worksheets with black colored tabs summarize data from the worksheets with blue colored tabs The data on the blue colored tabs should only be accessed or altered by users familiar with the underlying GAMS model code 5 Afourth group of worksheets containing information used to import data from the underlying GAMS model The data on the fourth group of worksheets should only be accessed or altered by users familiar with the underlying GAMS model code 20 How to view the model schematic The model schematic is available on the schematic worksheet The model schematic includes six types of nodes a 2 O KI a Water source nodes represent inflows from rim catchments Reservoir nodes r
57. k Save scenario You will then come back to the window providing an overview of the scenarios you have created The window you will see looks as follows if the scenario name chosen is Dry year je606 Aral Sea BEAM M f CG localhost 3000 users 2 vv us m I ft O z You have 1 scenario Results are ready for 0 scenarios Pending results for 1 scenario Create ad scenario Use the Create new scenario button to create a No scenarios scenario Adjust the parameters as you want them Dry year and then click save No results yet Click to run the scenario PR Edi Run the scenario Once you have created or modified your scenario you can run it by clicking Run Running the scenario will take some time Once you click Run the scenario will run in the background Wait a bit of time and then reload the page CTRL R on Windows CMD R on Mac Download the results When a scenario is finished a Download link appears Here you can download the output files from the scenario Modify your scenario You can modify the parameters of your scenarios Running a modified scenario will overwrite the results of the old scenario Aral Sea BEAM in brief Programmer s Manual User s Manual Questions or problems Contact us You may then create yet another scenario or run the scenario Dry year If you want to run the scenario Dry year and afterwards download and watch the results you do the following
58. l down menus After a scenario has been defined the user runs the GAMS model after which an Excel spreadsheet file containing model results is made available for download The output Excel file contains tables and charts containing summary and detailed results The Excel format facilitates the development of additional charts tailored to the user s needs To run BEAM and view results the following steps are taken 1 From the user interface define the scenarios to be run A scenario is a particular representation of the hydrological infrastructure and economic components of the river basin 2 Runthe GAMS model 3 Hetrieve the results file and view results This manual provides information about carrying out the above steps Before using BEAM What do you need to have in order to work with the model In order to work with BEAM the following are required 1 A personal computer 2 Microsoft Excel 3 Access to the Internet How to access the user interface The user interface is accessed through the following link http oeam cowi com How to log in The first window you will see looks as follows m Aral Sea BEAM C localhost 3000 users sign in is kel Please log in Email Password Remember me Ed o Don t have an bane C ains af WA e account m t di a Sign up here me S Een E The people behind BEAM More information Aii Som BEAM in biia The Aral Sea BEAM
59. le Res TUR Middle Res SUR Middle Res KAS Middle Res TAL Middle Res BUK Cascade Cascade Cascade Cascade Res CHI Total Total Oct 0 6 960 11 681 4 849 6 906 21 037 51 433 Nov 34 1 996 0 1 164 3 685 0 6 879 Nov o 6 960 15 367 6 845 8 070 21 071 58 313 2 047 4 237 139 3 810 1 379 11 612 777 1 651 1 245 2 119 6 960 16 613 8 495 8 070 20 294 60 432 Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 0 0 0 19499 19 435 19 500 18 669 1751 1557 1 526 1 408 2134 1 959 3 350 3 350 2010 1 781 2 010 2 010 4364 5 200 5 200 5 200 o 0 o 0 7130 6 455 7 130 7 130 1200 1 065 1 200 1 065 3337 4 998 5 174 6 510 0 0 0 0 o o 0 0 45 45 45 217 53 68 113 135 1000 1 041 1372 3 000 1750 1 750 1 750 1 750 0 0 0 0 940 451 940 940 1330 1 134 2 200 2 178 1544 1 655 1 738 1 824 883 862 883 883 757 762 769 777 247 125 1 524 1 497 1531 1 080 1 879 1 879 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 49 974 50 343 56 424 58 543 Oct Nov Dec 0 0 0 683 1 856 2 047 314 314 314 1 866 1 866 1 866 455 628 462 1 350 1 350 1 350 0 o 0 1 491 3 234 1 762 1 735 3 299 3 299 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 279 1 126 439 o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 65 19 29 664 101 295 196 799 139 o 0 0 65 18 21 0 o 0 122 540 28 451 o 0 o n 0 o o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 285 15 150 12 051 6 Reservoir spills disaggregated by individual reservoir Baseline reservoir overflow mm3 month Scenario reservoir overflow mm3 month OutFlw Oct Nov Dec Ja
60. ltural value added baseline 1000 USD Agricultural value added Scenario 1000 USD Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Oct Nov Dec KYR 16 001 16 001 16 001 16 001 16 001 16 001 16 001 16 001 16 001 16 001 16 001 16 001 192 012 KYR 16 791 16 791 16 791 TAD 59 657 59 657 59 657 59 657 59 657 59 657 59 657 59 657 59 657 59 657 59 657 59 657 715 884 TAD 62 940 62 940 62 940 TUR 114 092 114 092 114 092 114 092 114 092 114 092 114 092 114 092 114 092 114 092 114 092 114 092 1 369 104 TUR 118 128 118 128 118 128 UZB 438 436 438 436 438 436 438 436 438 436 438 436 438 436 438 436 438 436 438 436 438436 438 436 5 261 232 UZB 455 774 455 774 455 774 KAZ 36 845 36 845 36 845 36 845 36 845 36 845 36 845 36 845 36 845 36 845 36 845 36 845 442 140 KAZ 37 990 37 990 37 990 All 665 031 665 031 665 031 665 031 665 031 665 031 665 031 665 031 665 031 665 031 665 031 665 031 7 980 372 All 691 623 691 623 691 623 Hydropower value added baseline 1000 USD Hydropower value added Scenario 1000 USD Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Oct Nov Dec KYR 31 635 49 856 48 056 57 343 62 669 58 663 47 046 30 701 24 111 18 811 23 072 29 076 481 039 KYR 28 800 64 242 74 437 TAD 108 655 137 207 115 142 101 466 92 563 87 202 69 175 50 268 26 783 32 546 61 848 85 808 968 663 TAD 81 958 149 189 116 123 TUR 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 TUR 0 0 0 UZB 18 521 29 074 28 242 30 082 37 966 25 781 18 152 15 630 20 593 20 854 20 947 20 370 286 212 UZB 18 981 29 075 28 242
61. n Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Res KAM 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 Res KAM o 0 0 Res TOK 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 Res TOK o 0 0 Res AND 0 0 0 o o 0 0 o o 81 0 o Res_AND o 0 0 Res KAR 0 0 0 0 o 213 0 0 o 0 0 0 Res KAR 0 0 1 211 Res CHA 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 Res CHA o 0 0 Res SHA 343 0 0 o o 0 0 o o 0 0 o Res_SHA 0 0 0 Res ROG 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 Res ROG o 0 0 Res NUR 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 Res NUR o 0 0 Res TMP 0 0 0 o o 0 0 o o 0 0 o Res TMP o 0 0 Res TMR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 Res TMR 0 0 0 Res DAS 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 Res DAS o 0 0 Res ZAR 0 0 0 o o 0 0 o o 0 0 o Res_ZAR o 0 0 Res FER 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 Res FER o 0 0 Res AHA 0 0 0 o o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 Res AHA o 0 0 Res ARN 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 Res ARN o 0 0 Res KOK 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 Res KOK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Res KAF 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 o o 0 0 0 Res KAF o 0 0 Res ZD 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 Res ZD o 0 0 Res TUR 0 0 0 o o 0 0 o o o 0 o Res_TUR o 0 0 Res SUR 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 Res SUR o 0 0 Res KAS 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 Res KAS o 0 0 Res TAL 0 0 0 o o 0 0 o o 0 0 o Res_TAL o 0 0 Res BUK 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 Res BUK o 0 0 Res NAR 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 Res NAR o 0 0 Res FAR 0 0 0 o o 0 0 o o 0 0 o Res_FAR o 0 0 Res VAH 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 o o 0 0 Res VAH o 0 0 Res CHI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Res CHI 0 0 0 Total 343 0 0 0 0 213 0 0 0 81 0 0 Total 0 0 1211 Charts are also available for all tables presented in this section How to view ot
62. national income from agriculture on the economy worksheet provides information about how changes to income from agricultural production are distributed among the riparian countries This chart is also available in GDP units Annual national value added from agriculture E Baseline e o DI tO lt e e E Scenario 36 3 The charts titled Agricultural production on the agriculture and the agricultureByZone worksheets provide information about changes in the production of crops in each country and planning zone Agricultural production Uzbekistan 25 000 000 20 000 000 15 000 000 E Baseline 10 000 000 E Scenario 5 000 000 4 The charts titled Labor use on the agriculture and the agricultureByZone worksheets provide information about changes in farm employment in each country and planning zone Labor use 1 200 000 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 E Baseline B Scenario 1000 USD year 400 000 200 000 37
63. ns are recorded on the assumptions worksheet To view assumptions 1 Navigate to the assumptions worksheet Baseline Scenario Cotton price USD ton 1 000 1 000 Wheat price USD ton 300 300 Rice price USD ton 500 500 Alfalfa price USD ton 100 100 Vegetable price USD ton 40 40 Fruit price USD ton 450 450 Other crops price USD ton 75 75 Labor price of baseline 100 100 Capital price of baseline 100 100 Diesel fertilizer price of baseline 100 100 Crop change transformation elasticity 0 50 0 50 Extra nature water need Aral Sea North mm3 year 0 0 Extra nature water need Aral Sea South mm3 year 0 0 Cotton flexible 0 1 Fixed Flexible Wheat flexible 0 1 Fixed Flexible Rice flexible 0 1 Fixed Flexible Alfalfa flexible 0 1 Fixed Flexible Rainfall year 2009 2009 Modelled years 2009 2009 Irrigation efficiency investment USD ha 0 0 Irrigation efficiency investment USD m3 0 0 Irrigatopn efficiency improvement 96 096 096 Investments in Dashtijum 0 0 Investments in Rogun 0 0 Investments in Kambarata 1 0 0 Investments in Naryn cascade 0 0 Investments in Vakhsh cascade 0 0 Investments in Yavan 0 0 Electricity price m01 USD MWh 70 70 Electricity price m02 USD MWh 70 70 Electricity price m03 USD MWh 60 60 Electricity price m04 USD MWh 50 50 Electricity price m05 USD MWh 40 40 Electricity price m06 USD MWh 30 30 Electricity price m07 USD MWh 30 30 Electricity price m08 USD MWh 40 40 Electricity price m09 USD MWh 5
64. nts Rice Fruit 450 0 March 60 0 f M Efficiency 96 0 0 f Alfalfa Others 75 0 2 April 50 0 2 improvement m New reservoirs in use and i 0 i May 40 0 ea cos 0 8 Input prices 96 of baseline Dashtijum O USD ha Labor 100 0 f June 30 0 f i z Rogun Volumetric cost 0 0 f Capital 100 0 f July 30 0 f USD 1000m3 z Kambarata Others 100 0 F August 40 0 2 S Use or conserve inter annual Yavan reservoir storage of max Allow extra land 96 September 50 0 2 Scenario 0 0 f Extra land 0 0 Aral Sea BEAM in brief Programmer s Manual User s Manual 18 Questions or problems Contact us How to modify the extent to which inter annual carryover storage can be used or conserved BEAM runs for a time period of one year and storage at the beginning of the simulation period is normally constrained to equal storage at the end of the simulation period otherwise it is possible that the optimization model would reduce end of period reservoir storages to unrealistic levels However some of the reservoirs in the Aral Sea basin were built to provide inter annual carryover storage to supplement flows during dry years The user can choose to use or conserve a portion of this storage by modifying the percentage share in the section with the heading Use or conserve inter annual reservoir storage 96 of max The user selects the portion of reservoir storage to use or conserve as a percentag
65. onditions 15 How to modify demographic conditions nenne 16 How to modify the flexibility parameter a 17 How to modify the level of investment in irrigation efficiency improvements 18 How to allow for new lands to be brought into irrigated production 19 Running the GAMS model and retrieving results cccceccseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeseeeeeeeeeaeaeeeeeeeaaaeeeess 20 How to rn the GAMS mode 3 ute vede ge e alleen reae iuda 20 HOW to AA 21 Viewing and working with results utes venue kuduz sex kAk faxek hole mla ttes no Pemoba dax in dE cere eost di 20 How to update the output Excel file with results from the GAMS model 20 How is the output Excel file organized esee 20 How to view the model schematic 2 XQXX aaa 21 How to view assumptions used in a model scenario seeeeseeeeesseeeeeees 22 How to view summary economic data nennen nnns 23 How to view summary hydropower data X nennen 25 How to view summary agricultural data a 26 How to view agricultural data that are disaggregated by planning zone 28 How to view information about reservoir operations a 31 How to view other information about the water balance of the basin
66. p type or by region 1 606 7 Aral Sea BEAM A amp C localhost 3000 queries new Aral Sea BEAM in brief Programmer s Manual User s Manual LE T T I Create a new scenario I Scenario name Back f T T Crop prices USD ton Electricity price USD MWh Nature extra mm3 year Runoff base year Cotton 1000 0 2 October 55 0 f Aral north 1000 0 2 Normal 2008 2009 B Wheat 300 0 B November 60 0 2 Aral south 3000 0 8 Demography I Rice 500 0 8 December 65 0 B Flexible crops I x Polis M Flexible crop flexibility n alfa 0H anuary O Wheat M Medium Vegetables 40 0 8 February 65 0 8 n Hos M Irrigation investments T Fruit 450 0 c March 60 0 TA x 0 0 f T Alfalfa M F ree _ T Others 75 0 7 April 50 0 7 improvement n 2 New reservoirs in use a T Input prices 96 of baseline May 40 0 Dashtijum E Ape 0 0 f Labor 100 0 F June 30 0 f T Rogun Volumetric cost 0 0 T Capital 100 0 2 July 30 0 7 2 USD 1000m3 I Kambarata kad T Others 100 0 f August 40 0 f Use or conserve inter annual T Yavan reservoir storage of max T Allow extra land 26 50 0 C Sosnario 0 0 A I Extra land 0 0 f Questions or problems Contact us How to allow for new lands to be brought into irrigated production It is possible to allow for new lands to be brought into irrigated production The model may t
67. pes of assumptions in BEAM 1 Crop sales prices Crop input factor prices An option to bring new irrigated lands into production Electricity prices Allocation of water to the Aral Sea Types of crops for which cropping patterns may change from the baseline flexible crops New reservoirs and hydropower facilities Qoo ob op coms sp O PO Hydrological conditions 9 Demographic conditions which affect domestic and industrial water demands 10 Flexibility parameter regarding flexible crops 11 The level of investment in irrigation efficiency improvements 12 The extent to which inter annual carryover storage can be used or conserved in a given year Any combination of the types of assumptions listed above may be used to define a scenario How to modify crop sales prices Crop sales prices are modified using the following step 1 Define or modify crop prices for all active crops in the model by changing the prices listed in the section with the heading Crop prices All prices must be given in units of USD ton eoo j Aral Sea BEAM c C localhost 3000 queries new Create a new scenario 1 Scenario name e em Back T Crop prices USD ton Electricity price USD MWh Nature extra mm3 year Runoff base year T Cotton 1000 0 3 October 55 0 3 Aral north 1000 0 3 Normal 2008 2009 Il Wheat 300 0 8 November 60 0 8 Aral south 3000 0 8 Demography Rice 500 0 f December 65 0 f Flex
68. re modified by the user To modify irrigation efficiency data 1 Modify the level of water savings by changing the value in the cell labelled Efficiency improvement in the section with the heading Irrigation investments The value should be the percentage reduction in per hectare water use relative to baseline crop water use The same percentage reduction is applied to all crop types and at all locations i e it is not possible to specify percentages for different crops or locations 2 Provide the costs for the two different cost categories used i e area related costs and water use related costs The per hectare cost of installing and operating water saving technologies is inserted in the cell labelled Area cost USD ha The per unit water cost of operating water saving technologies is inserted in the cell labelled Volumetric cost USD 1000m3 eo o Aral Sea BEAM oS Q localhost 3000 queries new Sir us cl 4 I O Create a new scenario Scenario name Back Crop prices USD ton Electricity price USD MWh Nature extra mm3 year Runoff base year Cotton 1000 0 2 October 55 0 f Aral north 1000 0 f Normal 2008 2009 a Wheat 300 0 2 November 60 0 8 Aral south 3000 0 8 Demography Rice 500 0 8 December 65 0 2 Flexible crops 7 Cation M Flexible crop flexibility Alfalfa 100 0 f January 70 0 f M Medium Wheat Vegetables 40 0 8 February 65 0 B vi Irrigation investme
69. re of effectiveness impacts at the basin scale Annual basin value added E Baseline e o gt O lt e a B Scenario Total value added Agri value added HEPS value added 33 2 Although disaggregated at country level the charts comparing value added per unit land use and per unit water use on the agriculture worksheet give some insight into how the effectiveness of water use changes from the baseline to the scenario Ratio of value added to land use Uzbekistan E Baseline B Scenario Qo re O dd Q Qo E Na e WU mD Ratio of value added to water use Uzbekistan E Baseline m Scenario USD 1000 m 34 3 Because reservoir operations are driven by economic optimization criteria in all scenarios scenario results can provide insight into how to operate reservoirs in order to maximize effectiveness The chart titled Reservoir volume on the reservoirs worksheet compares baseline and scenario reservoir storages for the Toktogul and Naryn reservoirs This chart provides insight into how these reservoirs could be operated differently in order to maximize basin wide economic welfare Reservoir volume mm3 TOK base line MUR baseline OK 5cenario NUR scenario Which charts can be used to report on efficiency impacts Efficiency is defined as a measure of water use per unit activity level For example the efficiency of water use in the production of irrigated cotton can be
70. rom mountain catchments are the same as those observed during the 2001 hydrological year The 2001 hydrological year runs from 1 October 2000 to 30 September 2001 The 2001 year was considered a dry year in the basin To modify hydrological conditions 1 Select a hydrological year using the drop down menu in the section Runoff base year 806 Aral Sea BEAM Y o C localhost 3000 queries new vv us V IV L O Create a new scenario Scenario name Save scenario Back Crop prices USD ton Electricity price USD MWh Nature extra mm3 yea Runoff base year Cotton 1000 0 8 October 55 0 B Aral north Normal 2008 2009 Wheat 300 0 f November 60 0 f Aral south Demography Rice 500 0 8 December 65 0 8 Flexible crops 7 Colin M Flexible crop flexibility Alfalfa 100 0 f January 70 0 4 E M Medium Wheat Vegetables 40 0 f February 65 0 f Rice M Irrigation investments Fruit 450 0 f March 60 0 f m Efficiency 0 0 2 Alfalfa Others 75 0 8 April 50 0 8 improvement m New reservoirs in use na no f i o i May 40 0 ea cost O Input prices 96 of baseline Deshitum O USD ha v Labor 100 0 f June 30 0 f E Rogun Volumetric cost 0 0 f Capital 100 0 2 July 30 0 1 USD 1000m3 Kambarata kad Others 100 0 f August 40 0 f Use or conserve inter annual Yavan ad reservoir storage 96 of max Allow extra land fo ocean 50 0 ere 0 0 A Extra land 0 0 8 Aral Sea
71. shtijum a Rogun Kambarata O Yavan User s Manual o GB MO Runoff base year Normal 2008 2009 Demography Baseline 2009 lt gt Flexible crop flexibility Medium lt gt Irrigation investments Efficiency 0 0 8 improvement Area cost 0 0 8 USD ha Volumetric cost 0 0 B USD 1000m3 Use or conserve inter annual reservoir storage 96 of max Scenario 0 0 8 Questions or problems Contact us gg TC MT NG YY r r7T Em How to modify electricity prices Electricity prices affect the value of hydropower production and therefore have an impact on the amount of water released through hydropower facilities Electricity prices vary by month but not by location i e it is assumed that prices change in response to seasonal demand changes but that prices reflect the cost of importing alternative power supplies on a common system in the region To modify electricity prices 1 Modify prices given in the section Electricity price Prices should be given in units of USD MWh 800 J JAral Sea BEAM C 4 localhost 3000 queries new Create a new scenario Scenario name Back Crop prices USD ton Electricity price USD MWh Nature extra mm3 year Runoff base year Cotton October 55 0 3 Aral north 1000 0 7 Normal 2008 2009 Wheat November 60 0 7 Aral south 3000 0 B Demography Rice 500 0 f December 65 0 1 Flexible crops Baseline 2009 m paa inue Cun M Flex
72. sources of the Aral Sea basin BEAM includes hydrological elements such as inflows from mountain catchments infrastructure elements such as reservoirs and canals and economic elements such as hydropower facilities and irrigated farms Water in the natural environment is simulated through simulation of flows through the river system as well through a mass balance of the Aral Sea and other terminal lakes BEAM belongs to a class of simulation models called river basin planning models or water resources planning models These models are used for optimization of reservoir operations analysis and optimization of water allocation institutions and long term water supply planning The focus of these models is on representing the essential hydrological infrastructure and institutional components of a water resources system These models generally do not feature detailed representations of physical processes such as rainfall runoff relationships river hydraulics or water quality although some aspects of these processes can be included BEAM is different from most other river basin planning models with respect to the way in which water is allocated by the model In most other river basin planning models water is allocated using fixed demands and or prioritization schemes that satisfy some water uses before others e g domestic use may take priority over irrigation In the BEAM representation water is allocated according to economic optimization criteri

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