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1. Outline Population and Migration CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION M New Brunswick Quarterly Population Population Declined by 800 in 2013 758 756 Thousands of People 2 755 7 200401 200501 200601 200701 200801 200901 201001 20110 201291 201301 umm 0 10 752 2013 Average 750 748 746 744 742 740 Source Statistics Canada Quarterly Demographic Survey Fourth Quarter 2013 Year over Year 6 Change in Population 2013 vs 2012 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 15 New Brunswick Quarterly Net International Migration Growth Weaker in 2013 1 250 Net movement of people between New Brunswick and those outside Canada 1 000 960 750 500 0 I E F 250 200401 2005QI 200601 200701 200801 200901 201001 201191 201201 201301 Source Statistics Canada Third Quarter 2013 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 16 New Brunswick Quarterly Net Interprovincial Migration People continue to leave New Brunswick 1 000 Net movement of people between New Brunswick and the rest of Canada 500 0 In ru Inn 500 1 000 1 500 1 629 2 000 2 500 2004QI 2005QI 200601 2007QI 2008QI 200901 201001 201101 201201 201301 Source Statistics Canada Third Quarter 2013 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATIO2. Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 3 As US Yields Rise Canada Rates Will Follow 8 0 0 Canada 10 US 60 4 0 9 VAS V 2 6805 2 0 Y 2 42CD ba 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source Bank of Canada US Federal Reserve Based on Posted Rates Jan 29 2014 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 4 Current CMHC Forecast for Mortgage Rates 10 0 x i 5 Year 3 Year Year 80 13 v HWA T 6 0 A 4 0 One Year Rate Forecast Five Year Rate Forecast 2 2014 3 00 3 50 2014 5 25 5 75 2015 3 75 4 25 2015 5 50 6 25 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sources Bank of Canada CMHC Forecast Based on Posted Rates Jan 29 2014 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Canada Economic Outlook Economic Growth forecast at 2 2 76 Employment will grow by 1 5 76 Weakness in China or intensification in European Crisis could negatively impact outlook Income growth expected to continue at a Tra EI moderate pace dou TEN Population aging will continue to impact the type and tenure of housing in demand Canada should continue to attract a high level of immigrants Source CMHC Forecast CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 6 E Ne
3. 10 000 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 21 Apartment Rental Two Bedroom EN HET ON WO A U N 10 Source CMHC 2013 Fall Rental Survey CMHC F Ranking Vacancy Rate and CMHC Forecast Calgary Edmonton Toronto Vancouver Regina Winnipeg Saskatoon Montreal Ottawa Halifax 1 4 1 6 1 7 1 8 2 5 2 7 2 8 2 9 3 2 1 2 1 1 6 2 1 8 3 2 1 4 2 1 4 2 8 7 2 8 7 2 6 6 2 3 5 4 3 8 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 1 5 1 1 7 2 1 8 3 2 2 4 2 3 5 3 0 8 2 9 7 2 5 6 1 8 3 4 6 9 Vacancy Rates Forecast 2014 2015 Vacancy Rate for Structures with 3 Units by City Atlantic Canada 14 2013 2014F s 2015F 12 11 5 10 8 6 4 2 0 Halifax Moncton St John s Fredericton Saint John Charlottetown Source CMHC Forecast CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 23 Two Bedroom Average Rent Forecast Higher Increases Expected in Western Canada in 2014 2015 icity 2013 2014F 2015F_ Vancouver 1 281 1 5 2 3 2 Calgary 1 224 4 6 3 1 3 Toronto 1 213 0 6 1 1 4 Edmonton 1 141 3 0 2 1 5 Ottawa 1 132 1 8 1 7 6 Saskatoon 1 041 3 3 2 8 7 Regina 1 018 3 1 2 4 8 Halifax 976 1 9 2 0 9 Winnipeg 969 4 2 2 5 I0 Montreal 730 1 4 1 4 Source CMHC 2013 Fall Rental Survey CMHC F CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 24 Units Under Constructi
4. 2014 Housing Outlook Seminar Atlantic Canada Economic and Housing Outlook Alex MacDonald Regional Economist CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION HOUSING OUTLOOK SEMINAR FREDERICTON N B aisi Housing market intelligence you can count on CMHC SCHL Canada ete a E Economic Analysis and Outlook Presentation Outline Economic Analysis and Outlook CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION U S Housing and Employment Improving but Housing starts Single family privately owned Ths SAAR Existing Home Sales Single Family Ths SAAR 2 000 6 500 1 800 4 6 000 4 1 600 4 5 500 1 400 5 000 1 200 4 4 500 4 1 000 4 4 000 4 800 3 500 600 400 4 3 000 4 200 2 500 4 9 gt pt a r S rm7 m 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Unemployment rate Total NSA Labor force participation rate Total NSA 11 69 10 68 S 67 8 66 Y 65 6 64 5 4 63 3 T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T 62 T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source U S Bureau of Labour Statistics National Association of Home Builders National Association of Realtors S A Seasonally Adjusted S A A R
5. Association 2013 December 2013 YTD CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 37 New Brunswick Market Buyer s MLS Sales to New Listings Ratio New Brunswick 7596 j 5 Seasonally Adjusted 70 6596 60 Seller S 55 45 40 Buyer s 35 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 07 Jan 08 09 10 11 Jan I2 Jan 13 Source CREA December 2013 MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 38 2014 Forecast MLS Sales and MLS Prices Canada Sales 454 003 457 485 363 406 382 543 Sources CMHC CREA Forecast CMHC MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association 466 500 390 400 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 2014F Forecast Range 5 to 9 1 to 5 39 CMA MLS Sales CMHC Forecast 2014 2015 Ciy 2013 2014F 2015F_ Vancouver 13 976 2 4 1 7 2 Calgary 12 5 4 5 2 6 3 Edmonton 10 8 1 3 1 5 4 Saskatoon 1 5 2 8 1 3 5 Toronto 0 9 0 6 1 1 6 Winnipeg 0 0 1 3 1 2 7 Ottawa 1 1 1 4 8 Regina 9 2 976 1 376 9 Montreal 5 476 3 176 10 Halifax 2 3 2 9 Sources CREA Forecast CMHC MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 40 2014 Fo
6. Halifax 2 439 Source CMHC Ranking CMHC F Number of Units CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 29 2014 Forecast and Forecast Range Atlantic Canada Single Multiple Source CMHC Forecast CMHC New Brunswick Single Multiple Source CMHC Forecast CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 2014F Forecast Range 8 to 7 16 to 4 2014F Forecast Range 12 to 1 26 to 14 30 1 500 1 250 1 000 750 500 250 single Housing Starts Urban Forecast m2013 m2014F 2015F 160 145 150 140 140 140 St John s Halifax Charlottetown Saint John Fredericton Moncton Source CMHC Forecast CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 31 Multiple Starts Urban Forecast 2 000 52013 m2014F m2015F 1 750 1 500 1 250 1 000 750 500 250 136 130 140 St John s Halifax Charlottetown Saint John Fredericton Moncton Source CMHC Forecast CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 32 E Existing Housing Analysis amp Forecast Presentation Outline Existing Housing Analysis amp Forecast CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION New Brunswick MLS Sales 2011 2013 Sales 650 MLS Sales 2013 1 9 vs 2012 3 0 600 550 Average 2011 2011 Sep 2011 Jan 2012 May 2012 Sep 2012 Jan 2013 May 2013 Sep 2013 Source CREA Se
7. N 17 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 Net Movement of People 2012 vs 2013 Alberta and Ontario Combined Net Movement of People 7 392 8 199 2012 5 137 4 709 2013 2 255 3 490 To Alta Ont From Alta Ont Net Gain Loss for NB Source Statistics Canada Quarterly Demographic Survey Data is the total for first three quarters of each year plus the fourth quarter from the previous year CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 18 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 Net Movement of People 2012 vs 2013 Alberta Only Net Movement of People 7 m2012 _ m20l 3 838 4474 013 1 687 1 672 EE 2 802 To Alta From Alta Net Gain Loss for NB Source Statistics Canada Quarterly Demographic Survey Data is the total for first three quarters of each year plus the fourth quarter from the previous year CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 19 E Housing Starts Trends and Forecast Presentation Outline Housing Starts Trends and Forecast CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Trend Urban Starts 10 000 New Brunswick 3 000 Urban Starts 6 Month Moving Average SAAR 2 500 2 000 A 1 500 4 oy on 1 000 y 935 500 em Singles Multiples 0 T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source CMHC December 2013 Urban Starts
8. asonally Adjusted December 2013 MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association Year over Year Change in Price Comparison December 2013 YTD vs December 2012 YTD 500 450 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 34 Existing Home Sales 2011 2013 1076 2011 2012 2013 5 0 5 10 15 18 0 20 Halifax Moncton St John s Fredericton Saint John Charlottetown Source CREA December 2013 MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association 2013 December 2013 YTD CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 35 New Brunswick MLS Average Price 201 2013 172 500 MLS Average Price 2013 0 9 vs 2012 0 3 165 000 157 500 154 253 150 000 142 500 11 Apr 1I 11 1 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Source CREA Seasonally Adjusted December 2013 MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association Year over Year Change in Price Comparison December 2013 YTD vs December 2012YTD CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 36 Urban Average MLS Sale Price Growth 2011 2013 1276 m 2011 2012 2013 1076 876 676 476 276 076 1 0 2 1 2 4 Halifax Moncton St John s Fredericton Saint John Charlottetown Source CREA December 2013 MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate
9. ok Presentation Outline Summary of Current Outlook CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION B Canada Outlook 2014 2015 GDP growth is forecast to reach 2 2 in 2014 and increase a further 2 5 in 201 5 Both single and multiple starts are expected to remain near similar levels in 201 4 Declines in both singles and multiples are forecast to match the overall moderate slowdown in starts in 201 5 Both existing home sales and prices are expected to rise close to 2 in 2014 and 201 5 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION E New Brunswick Outlook 2014 2015 n GDP growth will reach close to in 2014 and 201 5 Single starts are expected to decline close to 7 in 2014 and a further 5 in 201 5 Multiple starts are expected to drop close to 20 in 2014 and a further in 201 5 Existing home sales should decline 3 2014 201 5 B Prices will remain near current levels in 2014 and 201 5 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION E Thank You Questions CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Contact Information Alex MacDonald Regional Economist Email Address amacdona cmhc gc ca Phone 902 426 8964 E Disclaimer The information analyses and opinions contained in this document are based on various sources believed to be reliable but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representa
10. on New Brunswick 3 500 Number of Units Under Construction at end of each Quarter 3 000 2 500 Average 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 200401 200501 200601 200701 200801 200901 201001 2011QI 201201 201301 Source CMHC Fourth Quarter 2013 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 25 Quarterly Completions New Brunswick 2000 Number of Completions 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0 200401 200501 200601 200701 200801 200901 2010Q1 2011QI 201201 2013Ql Source CMHC Fourth Quarter 2013 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 26 Small Urban Centres Housing Starts 2013 Housing Starts by Centre New Brunswick 2012 2013 Number of Starts Campbellton Edmundston Miramichi Source CMHC December 2013 Urban Centres 10 000 49 999 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 27 2014 Forecast and Forecast Range 2014 Forecast Range Canada 2012 2013 2014F 214 827 187 923 187 300 0 Single 83 657 76 893 76 700 6 to 8 Starts Multiple 131 170 111 030 110 600 6 to 6 Source CMHC Forecast CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION CMA Total Starts CMHC Forecast 2014 2015 Ciy 2013 2014F 2015F Toronto 33 547 2 Vancouver 18 696 3 Montreal 15 632 1 1 0 6 4 Edmonton 14 689 5 Calgary 12 584 12 0 6 Ottawa 6 560 6 7 7 Winnipeg 4 705 4 0 8 Regina 3 122 9 Saskatoon 2 980 10
11. pr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Source Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey S A Seasonally Adjusted December 2013 Year over Year 6 Employment Comparison December 2013 YTD vs December 2012 YTD CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Urban Full Time Employment 2011 2013 Full Time Employment Growth by City Atlantic Canada 2011 52012 52013 3 976 Halifax Moncton St John s Fredericton Saint John Charlottetown Source Statistics Canada 2013 December YTD CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Il Average Weekly Earnings by Province 2011 2013 76 Change in Weekly Earnings by Province Atlantic Canada 876 2011 2012 2013 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 Nova Scotia New Brunswick Prince Edward Island Newfoundland Labrador Source Statistics Canada 2013 December YTD CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 12 New Brunswick Retail Sales 2011 2013 975 Millions S A 2013 0 2 5 2012 0 4 955 935 930 Average 915 895 IM 875 2011 2011 2011 Jan 2012 2012 Sep 2012 Jan 2013 May 2013 Sep 2013 Source Statistics Canada S A Seasonally Adjusted November 2013 Year over Year Change in Sales Comparison November 2013 YTD vs November 2012 YTD CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION E Population and Migration E Presentation
12. recast MLS Sales and MLS Prices Atlantic 2012 2013 2014F 23 104 21 161 20 800 208 952 210 290 211 594 Sources CMHC CREA Forecast CMHC MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association New Brunswick 2012 2013 2014F 6 403 6 282 6 100 161 116 162 652 162 000 Sources CMHC CREA Forecast CMHC MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 2014F Forecast Range 9 to 5 2 to 3 2014F Forecast Range 10 to 4 3 to 3 41 Existing Home Sales Urban Forecast Charlottetown 2013 2014F 2015 Fredericton Moncton 1 558 Saint John 1 525 3 617 St John s 3 500 4 986 Halifax 5 100 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 Source CREA Forecast CMHC MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 42 6 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 Urban Average MLS Price Forecast by Centre gue 2013 m 2014F 2015F 3 0 1 6 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 8 0 1 2 St John s Halifax Charlottetown Saint John Fredericton Source CREA Forecast CMHC MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 1 3 0 1 0 3 Moncton 43 summary of Current Outlo
13. tions for which Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility 02013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved grants reasonable rights of use of this document s content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of the right to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this document CMHC retains the right to request that such use be discontinued for any reason No use whatsoever can be made of the name logo or other official marks of CMHC without the prior written consent of CMHC The use reproduction or broadcast of the document itself in whole or in part in its physical electronic or any other form is prohibited Subject to the preceding conditions any use reproduction or transmission of the content ofa CMHC document must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows Source CMHC or Adapted from CMHC if appropriate 2014 Housing Outlook Seminar Atlantic Canada Economic and Housing Outlook February 27 2014 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
14. w Brunswick Economic Outlook n Current economic weakness stems in part from reduced capital investment and weakness in the natural resources sector Economic growth will be 0 6 in 2014 and 0 9 2015 abour market conditions will remain weak in 2014 as employment growth is projected to reach 0 5 in 2014 By 2015 employment growth is expected to rise 0 8 76 he growth prospects for the province continue to be muted by the lack of population growth and a negative outlook for net migration CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 7 Forecast of Economic Growth for 2014 2015 76 Change in GDP Forecast by Province 6 0 5 0 5 0 52013 2014 m2015 Newfoundland Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Source Statistics Canada CMHC Forecast G D P Gross Domestic Product CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 8 Employment Outlook for 2014 2015 76 Change in Employment Forecast by Province 2 0 96 1 9 2013 2014 m2015 Newfoundland Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Labrador Source Statistics Canada CMHC Forecast CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 9 6 SS New Brunswick Full Time Employment 2011 2013 310 000 s S A Full Time Employment 2013 0 8 vs 2012 0 5 300 296 1 Average 295 290 285 280 275 Jan I1 Jul l 1 amp 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 A
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