User guide June 2011
Contents
1. On Fridays 2300 GMT day 2 Sunday to 2300 GMT day 3 Where the weekend is followed or preceded by a bank holiday the next non bank holiday will be used i e 2300 GMT day 3 Monday to 2300 GMT day 4 Swing against last period is comparison to the same weekday in the previous week Contract name Day ahead UK Overnights 1 2 Power Contract term Day Ahead Overnight 2300 GMT day 0 to 0700 GMT day 1 Definition Next WD 1 2 On Fridays 2300 GMT day 2 Sunday to 0700 GMT day 3 Where the weekend is followed or preceded by a bank holiday the next non bank holiday will be used i e 2300 GMT day 3 Monday to 0700 GMT day 4 Swing against last period is comparison to the same weekday in the previous week Contract name Day Ahead UK Peaks 3 4 5 Power Contract term From 0700 GMT day 1 to 1900 GMT day 1 Definition Next WD 3 4 5 On Fridays 0700 GMT day 3 Monday to 1900 GMT day 3 Where the weekend is followed or preceded by a bank holiday the next non bank holiday will be used i e 0700 GMT day 4 Tuesday to 1900 GMT day 4 Swing against last period is comparison to the same weekday in the previous week 14 ClearCut User Guide June 2011 Appendix Contract details Contract name Day Ahead UK Block 5 Power Contract term From 1500 GMT day 1 to 1900 GMT day 1 Definition Next WD 5 On Fridays 1500 GMT day 3 Monday to 1900 GMT day 3 Where the weekend is followed or preceded by a bank holiday the next non bank holid2. will now direct you to the log on screen Use your user name and password to log in lt Met Office Click and drag services into your preferred order or sor them with the buttons below Sort alphabetically Sort by recert use ClearCut StormTrecker VisualEyes Aboutus Terms and conditions Privacy policy Feedback wwe metoffice gov uk Crown copyright You will see a screen like the one above Click on the ClearCut symbol Full ClearCut Full is a paid for service To register please contact your dedicated Met Office Account Manager or use one of the methods below Email consulting metoffice gov uk Telephone 0870 900 0100 or 44 1392 885680 Post Met Office FitzRoy Road Exeter Devon EX1 3PB Setting up your subscription to enable access to the full forecast content will take up to five days so please allow enough time for this Registration for ClearCut Full can only be arranged by contacting us using the above details 6 ClearCut User Guide June 2011 Using ClearCut 3 How ClearCut works ClearCut provides a forecast of a representative temperature for a number of commonly traded UK power and gas futures contracts This forecast aggregates temperatures for the whole UK for the time periods covered by the contract and provides information on how the forecast compares to previous forecasts and observations 4 Contracts with ClearCut forecasts ClearCut provides forecasts
3. Met Office A a i h Contents Introduction 3 1 System requirements 4 2 Browser plugins 4 Using ClearCut 5 1 Log in and registration 5 2 Once you are registered 6 3 How ClearCut works 7 4 Contracts with ClearCut forecasts 7 5 Swing calculations 7 6 How are the numbers calculated 8 7 What you will see 9 11 Frequently asked questions 12 1 have no log in details 12 2 How do subscribe to ClearCut Full 12 3 am unable to access the ClearCut service 13 Appendix 1 Contract Details 14 19 2 ClearCut User Guide June 2011 Introduction ClearCut is a unique weather forecasting tool tailored to the specific requirements of UK Gas and Power traders The service provides temperature swing forecasts for seventeen of the most frequently traded gas and energy contracts This tool can help traders gain an edge through anticipating fluctuations in power demand There are two versions of ClearCut available ClearCut Free You can register to view a basic version of ClearCut for free The free version contains a temperature swing forecast for One energy contract One gas contract Instructions on how to access the free version can be found on page five ClearCut Full The full version of ClearCut contains Temperature swing forecasts for 12 energy contracts Temperature swing forecasts for five gas contracts Forecaster commentary providing an overview of
4. United Kingdom 2 How do I subscribe to ClearCut Full ClearCut Full is a paid for service To register for the advanced service subscription please contact your dedicated Met Office Account Manager or use the method below Email consulting metoffice gov uk Telephone 0870 900 0100 or 44 1392 885680 Post Met Office FitzRoy Road Exeter Devon EX1 3PB Setting up your subscription to enable access to the full forecast content will take up to five days so please allow enough time for this Once registered Launch your Internet browser Type www metoffice gov uk premium myservices this will launch and present your services page Click on the icon for ClearCut this will take you through to the service 12 ClearCut User Guide June 2011 Frequently asked questions 3 am unable to access the ClearCut service Check that your computer has meets the minimum requirements 1000 Mhz Processor 1GB RAM Flash Player 10 Web browser Internet connection Browser plugins This service requires the Adobe FlashPlayer plugin version 10 or above This plugin can be obtained from www adobe com go getflashplayer If you are still experiencing problems please contact the customer centre on the details above 13 ClearCut User Guide June 2011 Appendix Contract details Contract name Day Ahead UK Baseload Power Contract term Day Ahead 2300 GMT day 0 to 2300 GMT day 1 Definition Next WD 1 2 3 4 5 6
5. aturday lL y a Weekend UK Peaks 3 4 5 Power maximum temperature is the average of the maximum temperatures of period A and period B Changes in this representative temperature can be used to inform understanding of potential changes in energy demand in the UK 8 ClearCut User Guide June 2011 Using ClearCut 7 What you will see Met Office ClearGr BETA Latest Forecast Time 065 Latest Forecast Date Max Min Max Temp Min Temp Max Temp Lact Min Temp Last Contract tame Ternp C Temp C Forecast Swing C Forecast Swing C Observed Swing C Observed Swing C Day Aheac UK Baseloac Power Day Aneac UK Peaks 34 5 Power Day Ahead UK Overrigtts 1 2 Power 1 Service information messages Messages will be displayed here when adjustments have had to be made to the standard forecast For example No new data the service is displaying the previous forecast or No new data the service is displaying a time shifted forecast 2 Product update time The product is scheduled to update at 0631 UTC and 1431 UTC each weekday 3 PDF generation This will generate a PDF document of the current ClearCut forecast in a new browser window that can be printed or emailed 4 Link to User Guide This will open a PDF copy of the ClearCut user guide in a new browser window 5 Link to user control panel This will take you to the Met Office My Services homepage where you can view your subscrib
6. ay 1900 GMT Sunday 0700 GMT to Sunday 1900 GMT Swing against last period is comparison to the previous weekend Contract name Week Ahead UK Baseload Power Contract term Mean of Sunday 2300 GMT to Monday 2300 GMT Monday 2300 GMT to Tuesday 2300 GMT Tuesday 2300 GMT to Wednesday 2300 GMT Wednesday 2300 GMT to Thursday 2300 GMT Thursday 2300 GMT to Friday 2300 GMT Definition WD 1 2 3 4 5 6 Where the weekend begins or ends in a bank holiday this day will be excluded from the week Swing against last period is a comparison against the previous week 16 ClearCut User Guide June 2011 Appendix Contract details Contract name Week Ahead UK Overnights 1 2 Power Contract term Mean of Sunday 2300 GMT to Monday 0700 GMT Monday 2300 GMT to Tuesday 0700 GMT Tuesday 2300 GMT to Wednesday 0700 GMT Wednesday 2300 GMT to Thursday 0700 GMT Thursday 2300 GMT to Friday 0700 GMT Definition WD 1 2 Where the weekend begins or ends in a bank holiday this day will be excluded from the week Swing against last period is a comparison against the previous week Contract name Week Ahead UK Peaks 3 4 5 Power Contract term Mean of Monday 0700 GMT to Monday 1900 GMT Tuesday 0700 GMT to Tuesday 1900 GMT Wednesday 0700 GMT to Wednesday 1900 GMT Thursday 0700 GMT to Thursday 1900 GMT Friday 0700 GMT to Friday 1900 GMT Definition WD 3 4 5 Where the weekend begins or ends in a bank holiday this day will be exclu
7. ay will be used i e 1500 GMT day 4 Tuesday to 1900 GMT day 4 Swing against last period is comparison to the same weekday in the previous week Contract name Day Ahead UK Block 6 Power Contract term From 1900 GMT day 1 to 2300 GMT day 1 Definition Next WD 6 On Fridays 1900 GMT day 3 Monday to 2300 GMT day 3 Where the weekend is followed or preceded by a bank holiday the next non bank holiday will be used i e 1900 GMT day 4 Tuesday to 2300 GMT day 4 Swing against last period is comparison to the same weekday in the previous week Contract name Weekend UK Baseload Power Contract term Mean of Friday 2300 GMT to Saturday 2300 GMT Saturday 2300 GMT to Sunday 2300 GMT Definition Next WE 1 2 3 4 5 6 Where the weekend is followed or preceded by a bank holiday in which case this day is added to the weekend i e Mean of Friday 2300 GMT to Saturday 2300 GMT Saturday 2300 GMT to Sunday 2300 GMT Sunday 2300 GMT to Monday 2300 GMT Swing against last period is a comparison to the previous weekend 15 ClearCut User Guide June 2011 Appendix Contract details Contract name Weekend UK Peaks 3 4 5 Power Contract term Mean of Saturday 0700 to Saturday 1900 GMT Sunday 0700 GMT to Sunday 1900 GMT Definition Next WE 3 4 5 Where the weekend is followed or preceded by a bank holiday in which case this day is added to the weekend i e Mean of Friday 0700 GMT to Friday 1900 GMT Saturday 0700 to Saturd
8. ded from the week Swing against last period will be a comparison against the previous week 17 ClearCut User Guide June 2011 Appendix Contract details Contract name Week Ahead UK Block 5 Power Contract term Mean of Monday 1500 GMT to Monday 1900 GMT Tuesday 1500 GMT to Tuesday 1900 GMT Wednesday 1500 GMT to Wednesday 1900 GMT Thursday 1500 GMT to Thursday 1900 GMT Friday 1500 GMT to Friday 1900 GMT Definition WD 5 Where the weekend begins or ends in a bank holiday this day will be excluded from the week Swing against last period will be a comparison against the previous week Contract name Week Ahead UK Block 6 Power Contract term Mean of Monday 1500 GMT to Monday 1900 GMT Tuesday 1500 GMT to Tuesday 1900 GMT Wednesday 1500 GMT to Wednesday 1900 GMT Thursday 1500 GMT to Thursday 1900 GMT Friday 1500 GMT to Friday 1900 GMT Definition WD 6 Where the weekend begins or ends in a bank holiday this day will be excluded from the week Swing against last period will be a comparison against the previous week 18 ClearCut User Guide June 2011 Appendix Contract details Day Ahead UK Gas 0600 GMT day 1 to 0600 GMT day 2 On Fridays 0600 GMT day 3 Monday to 0600 GMT day 4 Where the weekend is followed or preceded by a bank holiday the next non bank holiday will be used i e 0600 GMT day 4 Tues to 0600 GMT day 5 Swing against last period will be comparison to the same weekday in
9. ed services and amend your account details 6 Log out This will log you out of ClearCut and return you to the Met Office services login page 9 ClearCut User Guide June 2011 Using ClearCu Max Min Min Temp Max Temp Laet Min Temp Last Contract Hame Ternp C Temp C Forecast Swing C Forecast Swing C Observed Swing C Observed Swing C Dey Ahead UK Baseload Power zo s Day Aneac UK Peacs 3 5 Power Max Temp Day Ahead UK Overrigtts 1 2 Power Dey Ahead UK Bock 5 Power 1 Contract description For full details of the contracts that ClearCut forecasts see Appendix 1 Contract Details 2 Maximum and minimum temperature calculations For details of how these values are calculated see section five How are these numbers calculated above 3 Swing values For details of how these values are calculated see section four Swing calculations above 10 ClearCut User Guide June 2011 Using ClearCut GasFervarewenea tet 23 2 a a i Forecaster Commentary Friday 03 June 2011 to Saturday 12 June 2011 Outlook High pressure over the country on Friday is expected to gradualy decline over the weekend as a weak cold front moves over northern Britain Thunue trough over the continent likely to move into SE England on Sunday Some rain and drizzle over the far north and northwest of Scotland on Friday mainly later in the day otherwise a dry day
10. elsewhere Occasional rain or showers over the northern half of Britain on Saturday becoming drier on Sunday though perhaps with showers continuing over Northern Ireland Outbreaks of thundery rain over SE England on Sunday locally heavy in some places Mostly light to moderate winds over northern Britain Moderate to Fresh NE winds in the south becoming strong over southeast England on Sunday Rather cloudy in the far north and northwest of Scotland on Friday with sunny periods elsewhere mostly cloudy over northern Britain on Saturday with bright or sunny periods in the south Some bright spells on Sunday though often rather cloudy After a generally warm day on Friday becoming cooler from the north oxe the weekend Forecast Certainty Hiah for decline of high pressure likelihood of rain in places and a cooling trend for temperature Low for thunderstorms over SE England Issued at 0434 on Friday 03 June 2U bill flanders Met Office More services for traders Click for further details 1 Forecaster commentary Forecaster commentary is only available in the full version of ClearCut and is updated daily by a Met Office forecaster It provides an overview of forecasted UK weather for the next ten days 2 Links to other Met Office web pages These links will open the following pages in another window About us information about the Met Office as an organisation out structure and purpose Terms and conditions genera
11. f registration Verification Code k reCAPTCHA Customer survey Please help us improve our services by answering some questions about yourself Please indicate the main reason that you visit tha Met Office Web sita from the following examples v In a professional comtext do you have access to paid for senices from the Met Office Yes No Terms and Conditions Check this box to agree that you consent to our use of your information in accordance with our Privacy policy and will be bound by the terms and conditions of the Registe sonte cense and that they will apply to your use of the Site and You must register your name and email address and complete the customer survey to access ClearCut As part of registration you will be directed to the Registered Content License which you must agree to before clicking on the Register button You will then be sent an email confirming your user name and password with which you can log in 5 ClearCut User Guide June 2011 Using ClearCut unt If you have an existing Met O If you are already have an existing account for another Met Office product go to https register metoffice gov uk register addservice full service clearcut amp orUrl premium myservices Once registered go to www metoffice gov uk premium myservices to log in to the service 2 Once you are registered Close your browser and re open it typing in www metoffice gov uk premium myservices This
12. for the following UK power and gas futures contracts Day Ahead UK Baseload Power Week Ahead UK Overnights 1 2 Power Day Ahead UK Peaks 3 4 5 Power Week Ahead UK Block 5 Power Day Ahead UK Overnights 1 2 Power Week Ahead UK Block 6 Power Day Ahead UK Block 5 Power Day Ahead UK Gas Day Ahead UK Block 6 Power Balance of Week UK Gas Weekend UK Baseload Power Weekend Ahead UK Gas Weekend UK Peaks 3 4 5 Power Weekday Next Week UK Gas Week Ahead UK Baseload Power Forward Weekend UK Gas Week Ahead UK Peaks 3 4 5 Power For further definitions of these contracts please see Appendix 1 Contract Details 5 Swing calculations There are two different swing values available for forecasts Forecast swing The forecast swing values show how the forecast has changed since the last issue If the swing value is positive then the current forecast is warmer than the last issue if it is negative colder Where there has not previously been a forecast for a contract i e on the first day it is issued no swing value will be given For the first issue of Day Ahead contracts forecast swing is calculated against the last value for the previous day s Day Ahead contract 7 ClearCut User Guide June 2011 Using ClearCut Last observed swing The last observed swing values show how the current forecast compares to the recent past For example the last observed swing values for Week Ahead UK Baseload Power will compare the forecas
13. l conditions for the use of Met Office web services For the full version of the service these may be superceded by the subsequently agreed terms of any contract with the Met Office Privacy policy information about how the Met Office will use any personal information provided and our responsibilities under the Data Protection Act 1998 Feedback this link should be used to provide feedback on ClearCut Contact us general contact details for the Met Office For ClearCut specific details you can also speak to your dedicated Met Office account manager email consulting metoffice gov uk or call 0870 900 0100 or 44 1392 885680 News latest news from the Met Office 11 ClearCut User Guide June 2011 Frequently asked questions 1 have no log in details user name or password If you have forgotten lost or have not been sent your log in details your user name or password please contact the customer centre by clicking on the link reading customer centre on the log in screen beneath Forgotten password Alternatively you can contact us as below By phone or fax from the UK Tel 0870 900 0100 or 01392 885680 Fax 0870 900 5050 or 01392 885681 By phone or fax outside the UK Tel 44 1392 885680 Fax 44 1392 885681 By email enquiries metoffice gov uk By social media We can be found on Twitter Facebook Flickr and YouTube By post Met Office FitzRoy Road Exeter Devon EX1 3PB
14. t for the week ahead to the observed weather from last week If the swing value is positive then the current forecast is warmer than the previous observations if it is negative colder Details of which observations are used to calculate these swing values are in Appendix 1 Contract Details 6 How are the numbers calculated ClearCut takes temperatures from a range of sites in the UK and weights them in proportion to the site influence on power demand The weighted average of these sites then gives us a useful proxy for UK temperature impact on power demand Where the time period represented in the contract is contiguous and shorter than one day for example in Day Ahead UK Baseload Power the maximum and minimum temperatures are for the whole period Day ahead UK Baseload Power maximum temperature is the maximum temperature for this period A Where the time period represented in the contract is contiguous but longer than a single day for example in Week Ahead UK Baseload Power the maximum and minimum temperatures are the average of each daily maximum and minimum temperature Saturday ee a EE _ A B Weekend UK Baseload Power maximum temperature is the average of the maximum temperatures of period A and period B Where the time period represented in the contract is non contiguous for example in Week Ahead UK Peaks 3 4 5 Power the maximum and minimum temperatures are the average of each contiguous period S
15. the previous week Balance of Week UK Gas 0600 GMT day 1 to 0600 GMT Saturday Where the weekend is preceded by a bank holiday the week ends 0600 on the bank holiday i e 0600 GMT day 1 to 0600 GMT Friday There is no balance of week issued on where the current next day is a bank holiday or weekend Swing against last period will be comparison to the same weekday s issue in the previous week Weekend Ahead UK Gas 0600 GMT Saturday to 0600 GMT Monday Where the weekend is preceded or followed by a bank holiday the bank holiday will be included in the weekend Swing against last period will be comparison to the previous weekend Week Ahead UK Gas 0600 GMT Monday to 0600 GMT Saturday Where the weekend is preceded or followed by a bank holiday the bank holiday is not included in the week Forward weekend UK Gas The weekend following the weekend ahead 0600 GMT Saturday to 0600 GMT Monday Where the weekend is preceded or followed by a bank holiday the bank holiday will be included in the weekend Swing against last period will be comparison to the previous weekend 19 ClearCut User Guide June 2011 Met Office Met Office Tel 0870 900 0100 Produced by the Met Office FitzRoy Road Exeter Fax 0870 900 5050 Crown copyright 2011 11 0122 Devon EX1 3PB enquiries metoffice gov uk Met Office and the Met Office Logo United Kingdom www metoffice gov uk are registered trademarks
16. weather in the UK over the next ten days To register for ClearCut Full please see Accessing ClearCut Full on page six 3 ClearCut User Guide June 2011 Introduction 1 System requirements For optimum viewing your computer requires the settings below Minimum specification 1000 Mhz Processor 1Gb RAM Flash player 10 Web browser Internet connection Recommended specification 1000 Mhz Processor 2 Gb RAM Flash player 10 Internet Explorer High speed broadband or better This service is supported in the following browser operating system combinations Microsoft Internet Explorer version 5 5 or above Microsoft Windows Apple Macintosh Mozilla Firefox version 2 0 or above Microsoft Windows Apple Macintosh 2 Browser plugins This service requires the Adobe FlashPlayer plugin version 10 or above This plugin can be obtained from www adobe com go getflashplayer 4 ClearCut User Guide June 2011 Using ClearCut 1 Log in and registration Accessing ClearCut Free If you are a new user Go to https register metoffice gov uk WaveRegistrationClient register do service clearcut When you first click on this link you will see a registration screen like this Met Office Create a ClearCut account First name Family name Phone number Company Job title ens Check availability Password 3 Confirm password Email Please note this address is used as part o
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