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1. Imaginary straight centre line Centre line of the Tree 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Description Hockey Stick a swept region of this shape can start at ground level or above a straight section The centre line finishes in parallel to the original stem axis Imaginary straight centre line gt Centre line of the Tree gt Leader Replacement similar to a hockey stick except it has two curves in its shape rather than one Typically results from a branch replacing the original leader Imaginary straight centre line p Centre line of the Tree Wobble wobble sweep type starts and finishes on the same axis but deviates in two different directions Centre line of the Tree Imaginary straight centre line 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Forking Models Models Available Forking multiple leaders is a stem malformation that occurs quite commonly and can affect stem value A generic forking model has been implemented in Forecaster that allows a proportion of stems to have 2 or more leaders It does not permit more than one level of forking but the point of forking can be anywhere between prune height or breast height on an unpruned stem and twice breast height below the stem height Forking Model Properties form Forking Model Properties
2. 24 4 Model Branch Abscission Parameters 1 5 0 Branch Angle Distribution 65 10 Branch Azimuth Increment 137 5 Branch Count Distribution 6 0 2 0 Branch Size To Age Relationship 0 25 Branch Size To Max Relationship 0 128 Branch Vitality Parameters 1 0 08 Cluster CountProbabilities 0 1 0 15 0 25 0 35 0 1 0 05 Max Branch Size Distribution 40 15 Parameters to determine years to abscission after death a b diam 2 o ce 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available The following table describes the functions of the fields in the Branch Model Properties form Field Description Branch Abscisson Branch Abscisson Parameters The number of years between the time of death and the time when the branch is shed is related to the branch diameter D in mm at time of death Predicted from y a bD where y is the number of years from death to abscission Defaults are a 1 and b 0 005 Branch Angle Distribution Branch Angle This is the angle between the stem and the upper side of the branch and is predicted stochastically from a normal distribution bounded at 1 and 179 By default the mean angle is N 65degrees 10degrees from Madgwick 1994 42 This assumes that branch angle is constant over time whereas some published results suggest the angle may increase with age Branch Azimuth Increment Branch azimuth Increment An azi
3. Example BA CV 30 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Crops To control the variation in stem height alter the stem height CV Description Example Height CV Stem height CV 10 10 Example Height CV Stem height CV 15 15 The distribution of stem height m and DBH mm for an initial crop with a maximum DBH of 180mm and a stem height CV of 10 Example Height CV 10 The distribution of stem height m and DBH mm for an initial crop with a maximum DBH of 180mm and a stem height CV of 15 Example Height CV 15 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Function Sets Function Sets Function Sets A Function Set defines the models and functions that will be used to simulate the growth of a Crop on a Site The first set of models those above the red line in the form below is specified once within a Function Set and will apply to all species These models include e Growth model e Monthly Adjustment table e Height Age table e DOS function three functions are available the Standard function is in the Public Domain while the Interim 1994 and DOS 1999 functions are available only to members of the Radiata Management Theme of Future Forests Research Limited FFR e Sweep model e Forking model In addition a standard stump height must be provided for use in felling simulation All other models those below th
4. Scion s mission is to improve the international competitiveness of the New Zealand forest industry and build a stronger bio economy We contribute to the sustainable economic development of New Zealand by focusing on four strategic goals Increase the profitability of New Zealand s forest industries Ensuring that return on investment from the New Zealand forest industries increases in line with sector plans Helping expand the sector in new higher value markets and taking advantage of the economic benefits offered by Environmental Services Optimise the value of marginal land Helping inform land owners and policy makers through our science and decision support tools about land use options to extract multiple benefits from marginal land Accelerate the growth of the bioeconomy Focusing on market led opportunities which provide competitive advantage for lignocellulosic and biopolymer based products and ensuring appropriate support for bioeconomy strategies and frameworks through our active engagement with policy makers and key stakeholders Maximise the quality and impact of Scion s science Fostering a culture of innovation by investing in high performing individuals and teams and providing a research environment that encourages collaboration We actively engage with our local national and international community through energising partnerships and active communication of our science With approximately 340 staff Scion is headquar
5. See Crop Measurements for more detail on parameter definitions and their calculation Stem List tab This allows actual stem level measurement data to be entered For example if you measure 50 stems and the estimated stocking is 500 stems ha then each stem measured will have a weighting of ten Stem lists must be imported into Forecaster from a CSV file from Excel for example or from SilviQC To open a stem list in Forecaster a crop file must be imported This crop file contains a link to the file that holds the stem list data More than one stem list can be referenced in a crop file for bulk loading of stem lists into Forecaster ATLAS SilviQC produces a crop and a stem list in CSV format which can be imported straight into Forecaster See Crop Measurements for more detail on parameter definitions and their calculation 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Crops Field Button Function Properties button Clicking the Properties button brings up the Crop Properties form allowing additional user defined crop properties to be entered The names and values must be consistent with those expected by the various models and functions Some currently implemented growth models require properties to be set including Model Property Name Values PPM88 Growth GF Rating whole number from 2 Model to 22 PPM88 Growth Relative Closure lt leave blank gt Model Crop pro
6. 2 The following command line imports entities from each of the files specified into a folder called Temp immediately below each master group creates a project containing all combinations of the imported entities analyses the project writing any messages to the specifed message file and then deletes contents of the Temp folders prior to exiting FCMD CropsFile C Crop Data Forest 342 crops csv SitesFile C Site Data Hawkes Bay csv 190 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 RegimesFile C Regime Data Three Prune Two Thin csv FunctionSetsFile C FunctionSet Data Hawkes Bay Functions csv ReportOptionsFile C ReportOptions Data Standard Reports csv MessageFile C ForecasterMessages msg 3 The following command line creates a project in Projects Temp containing all combinations of the entities in the specified groups analyses the project writing any messages to the specifed message file and then deletes the contents of the Temp folders prior to exiting FCMD CropsGroup Forest 342 crops SitesGroup Hawkes Bay RegimesGroup Three Prune Two Thin FunctionSetsGroup Hawkes Bay Functions ReportOptionsGroup Standard Reports MessageFile C ForecasterMessages msg 1 The Temp folders are created if they do not exist 2 The contents of the Temp folders are deleted prior to any entities being imported and after the simulation has completed 3 If arguments cont
7. C Species Sets HO Regimes Fal Forecaster 1 13 0 1222 Entities DB local Forecaster Window Help 42 amp A New NewGroup Edit Refresh Cut Copy Paste Simulate Reports DB local ForecasterReports come Latitude d a Bay of Plenty E Canterbury e Gisborne East Coast i Hawkes Bay Nelson New Zealand avg ie Otago From SGM Coop 80 P From SGM Coop 145 From SGM Coop 327 From SGM Coop 139 From SGM Coop 41P From SGM Coop 193 From SGM Coop 146 From SGM Coop 133 From SGM Coop 126 List View Pane From SGM Coop 47P From SGM Coop 92P HC Log Product Definitions C Cutting Strategies E Report Options Ey Practical Advice 1 Economic Settings Southland Sites PMC Default Sites Bay of Plenty From SGM Coop 327 PSPs dec deg 176 Latitude _dec deg S 38 Altitude _m 400 300Index m3 per ha per yr 26 00 400Index m3 per ha per yr 0 00 500Index m3 per ha per yr 0 00 Details Pane Tree View Pane Height Indices Height_m Species GFRating BaseAge DominanceMeasure 32 30 P RAD GF14 20 Mean Top Height 100 Properties Annual Rainfall mm year 2130 Growth Modelling Region Central North_Island Mean Annual Air Temperature LENZ 2010 degrees C 12 1 Mean Annual Air Temperature NIWA 2012 degrees C 11 7 Mean Minimum Autumnal Air Temperature degrees C 7 9 Nitrogen Score 5 0 1 items selected The m
8. 5 227 30 09 2004 Pre Pruning 848 4745255565 7 621144262924 7 214072706498 14 00276283112 1 8525a6d3 a279 5 227 30 09 2004 Post Pruning 848 4745255565 7 618741353127 7 214072706498 14 002762831128 1 8525a6d3 a279 5 227 30 09 2004 Pre WasteThinning 848 4745255565 7 618741353127 7 214072706498 14 002762831128 1 8525a6d3 a279 5 227 30 09 2004 Post WasteThinn 454 9999999999 7 848539526221 7 711584653747 8 711950753305 1 8525a6d3 a279 6 31207 2005 454 8261393422 9 118792779256 8 955015684535 11 71586612137 1 8525a6d3 a279 6 842 31 03 2006 Pre Pruning 454 6120331124 10 62577282282 10 458531 33469 15 89231850849 2 8525a6d3 a279 6 842 3103 2006 Post Pruning 454 6120331124 10 62439095601 10 45853133469 15 89231850849 2 8525a6d3 a279 6 876 30 04 2006 454 6022205112 10 68605800596 10 51908023172 16 04581021093 2 8525a6d3 a279 6 876 30 04 2006 450 0000000000 10 64628457454 1048092493541 16 83885907649 2 8525a6d3 279 7 31 07 2006 449 9626498705 10 87998657244 10 71046397034 17 46878389478 2 i gt Condition This tab shows a graph of the crop condition data resulting from the Graph tab simulation Crop Condition Condition Graph d Table Stocking Stemsha Total Standing Volume m3 ha Mean Top Height m Basal Ar
9. 94 1866524 94 2991666 186 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Yield Generator Interface Saving Simulation Data Once a combination has been successfully simulated the site regime function set and project are saved to the Forecaster database from where they may be accessed via the main Forecaster interface for editing copying etc Each entity is saved into a base folder called _YieldGenerator within which a subfolder will be created for each user For example the site created in the Yield Generator will be saved in Forecaster in the Sites _YieldGenerator username folder and with the name YieldGenerator Any such site regime or function set entities are used to initialise Yield Generator when it is next run Note that when the Yield Generator is next run the existing YieldGenerator entities within each of the project site regime etc folders for that user will be over written Any of these entities may be copied to any other locations within Forecaster s folder hierarchy so that if further analysis is required the relevant entities should at least be renamed or preferably copied to another location in the folder hierarchy 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 187 Forecaster v2 0 Yield Generator Interface Regional Function Sets The location of a stand has a strong influence on its growth rate as well as
10. Data Requirements No other data is needed as input to the model thus there are no Properties defined for the model Between stem Variation The FFRSGA model does not explicitly model any inter stem variation but does so implicitly through the variation in the stems DBH and height Outputs When the FFRSGA model is selected from the predicted point values the following values are calculated for each log e a mean value of SGA degrees e the percent of the log s volume for which the value of SGA is gt 4 and the following values will be output in result tables Result Table Value s LogTrace value for each log Mean spiral grain angle Percent of volume that exceeds the 4 threshold LogSummary value for each Mean of all logs mean spiral grain angle Log Product Mean of all logs percent of volume exceeding the 4 threshold LogYield values for each Log Min mean max and standard deviation of all logs mean Product spiral grain angle Min mean max and standard deviation of all logs percent of volume exceeding the 4 threshold 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Density Models Density Models Implemented The currently available wood density models are Model Description NzMeanWoodDensity The New Zealand mean density model for radiata pine WaAlIBasicDensity1 The updated 2007 WAI density model for radiata pine 2 This model
11. How to calculate stem weighting For bounded plots the weighting of a stem is equal to the number of stems in that plot which are represented by that stem scaled to the hectare level It can be calculated by the formula W 1 Plot area x No plots For example if we have the following DBHs mm Plot 1 area 0 02 ha 127 149 132 137 119 124 Plot 2 area 0 01 ha 141 98 135 144 To calculate the stem weighting for the plots information above Plot 1 weighting 1 0 02 x 2 25 Plot 2 weighting 1 0 01 x 2 50 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Species Weighting_ stems_per_ha PrunedHeight_ m Crops P RAD 149 25 3 4 P RAD P RAD 132 137 P RAD P RAD 119 124 P RAD P RAD 141 98 P RAD 135 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Crops 300 Index Calculator This form implements the algorithms documented in the Future Forests Report No FFR RO35 5 and implemented in the Forest Carbon Predictor 3 beta April 2011 but note that the calculator currently only works for integral ages This function is only available to members of the FFR Radiata Theme The calculator can be used to predict the following e The residual stocking of a thinning e Pruning age pruned stocking and pruned height e Stocking basal area and mean top height at a given age e Plant Stocking
12. Implementation of the Spiral Grain and Microfibril Angle models FFR File Note RFN 032 Unpublished Future Forests Research 38 McKinley R 2013 Testing the Forecaster implementation of genetic gain in wood density FFR File Note RFN 034 Unpublished Future Forests Research 39 Moore J D Cown R McKinley C Sabatia J Harrington and B Clement 2013 In Prep Modelling the Variation in Spiral Grain Angle and Microfibril Angle in Radiata Pine FFR Report No R074 Rotorua Future Forests Research Ltd 40 Kimberley M Knowles L and Dean M Validation of the 300 index growth model for radiata pine on three contrasting site types PMC Report No 92 Rotorua New Zealand Plantation Management Cooperative 2005 41 Kimberley M and Dean M A validation of the 300 index growth model PMC Report No 98 Rotorua New Zealand Plantation Management Cooperative 2006 42 Knowles R L and Hansen L W Application of the New Zealand Douglas fir silvicultural growth model DFNAT to data from the Pacific Northwest NZ Douglas fir Research Cooperative Report no 41 Unpublished 2004 43 Kimberley M O and Van Der Colff M Improvements to the Douglas fir Growth Model and Calculator Future Forests Research 2010 44 Van Der Colff M Kimberley M O and Shula R G Full Rotation Validation 300 Index Growth Model FFR Radiata Management Theme Report No FFR RO10 Rotorua Future Forests Research 2010
13. The Priority List bucker behaves as a log maker on the skid would it will cut as many logs of a product as it can up to the maximum specified before moving onto the product of next lower priority Towards the end of the stem some look ahead is used to avoid wasting potential low priority logs similar to how a log maker would assess the remaining length of the Bucking Modes in other systems stem 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 135 Forecaster v2 0 Cutting Strategies Field Button Function The Priority List mode was implemented in STANDPAK MARVL used the optimising mode and ATLAS Cruiser has both modes available Log Product This is the list of Log Product Definitions to be used for this Cutting Definitions Strategy Further products can be added using the Add button and existing products can be removed using the Remove button When a product is added its Name Description and Price columns are populated from the selected Log Product Definition The value used for Price is the Default Price defined for the Log Product Definition but it can be overridden in this Cutting Strategy maintenance form Note that any such changes are stored only in the current Cutting Strategy and a change to the actual Default Price must be done in the Log Product Definition itself Priority List bucking For each log product a priority must be set using the Priority buttons and the maximum number of logs th
14. 27 26 PSMEN Ste Index m PSMEN 500 Index m ha yr SQSEM Ste index m 30 24 j SQSEM 400 Index m sha n 633 O Pan O f AE rs CULUS Ste Index m 2383 3 CUMAC Ste Index m 2383 Efastigata Ste Index m NZMG Easting 2821 142 NZMG Northing 6304510 Growth Modelling Region Mean Annual Air Temperature LE 10 9 Mean Annual Air Temperature NI 11 1 Mean Minimum Autumnal Air Tem 6 4 Latitude S 38 409 Longitude E 176 562 OWBHD from surface kg m3 A 396 8 20 OWBHD measurement kg m3 Nitrogen Score 5 0 Phosphorous Score 60 Zoom 0 33 If a site still exists from a previous run of Yield Generator see below then it will be used as the initial location of this site Further any other site in the Forecaster database can be used to initialise the site s location by clicking the Initialise from an Existing Site button and selecting a site from the displayed tree of sites The required silvicultural regime is entered into the Regime tab This must include both a plant event and a measurement event at known dates However green fields scenarios may be modelled by deriving the measurement see Generating a Starting Point Crop Note that when adding a plant event GF Rating is added as a property with a default value of GF14 To edit this click the Properties button on the Plant Event form A value for GF Rating is
15. 45 Shula B Fritzsche M and Kimberley M Comparison of individual tree growth models FFR Radiata Management Theme Report No FFR RO40 Rotorua NZ Forest Research Institute 198 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Ltd 2009 46 Kimberley M Snook J and Gordon J Documentation of the 300 Index Growth Model FFR Radiata Theme File Note No RFN 038 Rotorua Future Forests Research Ltd 2013 47 Van Der Colff M and Kimberley M Modelling Eucalyptus Fastigata growth in New Zealand Eucalypt Cooperative Report No 3 2005 48 Berrill J Preliminary growth and yield models for even aged Cupressus lusitanica and C macrocarpa plantations in New Zealand New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science 34 3 pp 272 292 2004 49 Kimberley M O Beets P N Van Der Colff M and Dean M Updated Redwood Calculator Future Forests Research 2011 50 Meason D F Grace J C and Todoroki C L Sequoia sempervirens Silvicultural Practices Review and Data Analysis Future Forests Research 2012 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 199 Back Cover
16. Event 1 Fiune Oct 2005 Age 4 4 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 146 71 lt MeanDOS gt 170 m Nov 2005 Age 4 55 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 149 30 Tree to trigger Dec 2005 Age 4 65 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 152 59 Vi Prune Jan 2006 Age 4 75 Pi abies y d lift DOS 155 60 IEW WasteThin Feb 2006 Age 485 P Details Pane ii pos 15802 Pane 4ge gt 30 years Mar 2006 Age 4 95 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean litt DOS 159 25 a a HOLD ie iei cbai Apr 2006 Age 5 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 159 92 C Modelling sweep C Modelling forking Felling May 2006 Age 5 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 161 18 Dbh value out of range 9 5mm is outside limits of 28 69mm Height value out of range 4 691m is outside limits of 32 49m Harvesting with cutting si Bucking Event 2 Stop Jun 2006 Age 5 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 163 31 Jul 2006 4ge 5 05 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 165 65 Aug 2006 Age 5 15 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 167 95 Sep 2006 Age 5 25 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 170 48 lt il Dbh value out of range 10 1mm is outside limits of 28 69mm OOOODODDDDDDDDDDDOOHE 72 messages showing 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Projects The following table describes the fields and buttons in the Message Viewer form Field Button F
17. Large Branch Scale Factor 3 0 4 Site Mean Annual Air Temperature LENZ 2010 degrees C Region CNI Large Branch Probability The probability that a cluster contains unusually large branches 0 to 1 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Note that it is not necessary to set a value for both of the Branching Habit properties if there is a value set for the Breeding Value Branch Habit at any level i e on the Crop Site or FunctionSet it will be used in preference by BLOSSIM but failing that a value is expected for GF Plus Branch Habit again at any level and from it a value for Breeding Value Branch Habit will be derived The GF Plus Branch Habit has a default value of 0 3094 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Branch Index BIX Models Branch Index Definition The diameter of the largest branch in each quadrant of a log is measured The average diameter of these four branches is the Branch Index source Maclaren J P Radiata Pine Grower s Manual FRI Bulletin no 184 New Zealand Forest Research Institute 1993 Branch Index is commonly abbreviated to BIX Summary of BIX Models The popup accessed from the function set display lists the following four options which include three BIX models derived from STANDPAK implementations e None e Inglis Cleland 1981 applicable to Radiata pine and ava
18. Re Prune Stocking field in two slightly different ways e Where the Specify Re Prune Stocking option is unchecked then the Specify Re Prune Percentage means that the specified percentage of the crop stems will be pruned at a minimum The form is displayed as below 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 119 Forecaster v2 0 Field Button Regimes Function Stem Ordering Pruning Strategy e Where the Specify Re Prune Stocking option is checked then the Specify Re Prune Percentage means that at least that percentage of the pruned stems must be crop stems The form is displayed as below V Specify Re Prune Stocking Prune 350 4 stems ha V Specify Re Prune Percentage Where at least 95 are crop stems Select from drop down list and adjust variability with slider Refer to Regimes gt Stem Ordering for an explanation of the use of this field Selected from the drop down list Pruning Strategy Height zl Height Pruning Constraints PercentageOfStem Caliper Minimum Green Crown Remainina m Minimum Lift Length m Name Maximum Pruned Height m Minimum Green Crown Remaining m Minimum Lift Lenath m Prune a minimum lift of x metres and to a maximum height of y metres subject to a green crown remaining of z metres At least one of the three values must be specified Lift length is the new pruned height minus the old pruned height If
19. Regimes are used to specify the timing and sequence of silvicultural events that are to be applied to a crop Log Product Log Product Definitions define the criteria and constraints to be used when Definitions bucking cross cutting stems into logs Cutting A Cutting Strategy contains a set of log products grades that can be produced Strategies if that strategy is applied to the felled stand Report A set of Report Options defines the types of information that will be reported Options from a simulation Simulate Pressing this button initiates the simulation analysis of the selected project button Navigation Forecaster behaves very much like Windows Explorer in the manner in which the user navigates around and manages its database contents Working with Folders The following table shows the actions that can be performed with folders Create a new folder Key Points Select a master folder and either e Select File New Group or e Select the New Group ToolBar button or e Right click and select New Group Using the same procedure any number of sub folders may be created in a group This allows entities to be stored and managed under a meaningful hierarchy e g Region X Forest Y Compartment Z Rename a folder e Select the folder in the List View Pane e Right click and select Rename e Type in new name Delete a folder e Select the folder in the List View Pane 4 11 Forecas
20. e 300 Index and site index General Operation Various fields will be initialised using values entered in the Whole Stand tab of the Crop form Values which have been calculated will be shown in red The screen shot below shows the result of entering certain values shown in black and then clicking the Calculate button If Calculate is clicked again then any calculated values i e those shown in red will be recalculated amp 300 Index Calculator arm Plant Stocking 00 lt Age J years Latitude 43 05 degrees South Stocking 0 gt stems ha Altitude 220 masi Basal Area 5 0 m2 ha 300 Index 27 3 m3 ha year Mean Top Height m Site Index 30 3 m OK Cancel The Latitude Altitude 300 Index and Site Index may be initialised with values from an existing Site by clicking the Select button Note that the values of Latitude and Altitude will be remembered from the previous calculation Multiple cells can be selected in either of the pruning or thinning grids using the mouse or arrow keys For example hitting the Delete key with the pruning fields selected shown below will delete all pruning values 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Residual Stocking i i Age Pruned Stocking stems na lt years stems jha 300 2 w i Measurements Site Age 6 gt years Latitude 33 40 gt degrees South Stocking 0 gt stems ha Altitud
21. in the last pruning event regardless of whether Is_ Crop Stem attribute has been set on the stemlist Prune Stocking Behaviour Reason x At least X of stems marked with Is_Crop_Stem TRUE must be repruned X lt 100 prevents small rogue stems from delaying the pruning event Error Pruned stocking cannot be specified when Is_Crop_Stem attribute is present on stemlist Is_Crop_Stem designation is intended as the definitive factor in selecting stems Error Pruned stocking cannot be specified when Is_Crop_Stem attribute is present on stemlist Is_Crop_Stem designation is intended as the definitive factor in selecting stems At least X of stems pruned in previous prune event must be repruned X lt 100 prevents small rogue stems from delaying the pruning event User won t know exact prune stocking N stems will be pruned This is the current basic behaviour Followers might be pruned at the expense of stems pruned in prior lifts N stems will be pruned with at least X of the stems pruned to come from those stems pruned in the previous prune event Where X of the target pruned stocking N exceeds the available crop This prevents followers from being pruned immediately after the previous prune event 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Regimes Prune Behaviour Stocking stems an error will
22. of stems per hectare which the stem represents The stand stem list on a site is grown through the regime and any yields are estimated Finally the resulting yield is available for reporting through standard reports and charts and through exporting the information to XLS or CSV files Forecaster and Cruiser Forecaster has been designed to integrate more closely with future versions of ATLAS Cruiser For example the log product definitions will be able to be used in common between the two systems thus improving the comparability of yield estimates from assessments and simulations However Cruiser will remain a specialized pre harvest assessment system with many features only applicable to this type of forest inventory These features include e The sampling framework Cruiser supports several different sampling strategies simple random stratified double so that an assessment can be designed for maximum efficiency to produce the most precise estimates at the lowest cost Sample units can be either area based plots or individual stems This framework allows Cruiser to calculate yield estimates as well as their standard errors and degrees of freedom which means error limits confidence intervals PLEs can be reported e Derived assessments are re groupings or post stratification of sample units in order to represent a different population Unlike Forecaster s stand centric approach Cruiser can cater for harvest units which may com
23. 000 30 000 Demo Pruned oemo Small Sawlog Demo Large Sawlog rt Demo Pulp a Cutting Waste 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Volume m ha Forecaster v1 12 0 1028 Page 1 of 1 Prepared by snookj at 12 11 2012 10 11 a m 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 145 Forecaster v2 0 Report Options Economic Analysis Report The Economic Analysis Report presents the results of an economic analysis in several different summarised forms e A Financial Summary which lists the NPV IRR if calculable LEV Stumpage and Break even Log Price for each clearfell age at the base discount rate e A Cash flow Analysis which lists the various cash flow items the age s at which they were applied and the resulting discounted and undiscounted amounts The Harvesting related costs and revenues are grouped by clearfell age and relevant values are totalled e A Sensitivity Analysis which lists the NPV IRR if calculable LEV Stumpage and Break even Log Price for combinations of clearfell age discount rates the base rate any variation specified and cost price variations Economic Analysis Report ya FFR Forecaster Simulation Start Time 16 Nov 2012 1 56 09 p m Project Projects Demo Project Crop Crops DemoData Demo1 Site Sites Demodata BoP Medium Regime Regimes DemoData Demo1 Function Set Function Sets Public Domain Demo Data Demo 1 Economic Settings Economic Settings Demo Cutting Strategy C
24. 012668 1_2 0 02 25 149 22 201 0 017437 13 0 02 25 132 17 424 0 013685 14 0 02 25 137 18 769 0 014741 15 0 02 25 119 14 161 0 011122 16 0 02 25 124 15 376 0 012076 2 1 0 01 50 141 19 881 0 015615 22 0 01 50 98 9 604 0 007543 23 0 01 50 135 18 225 0 014314 2 4 0 01 50 144 20 736 0 016286 Mean Stem Basal Area sq m 0 012668 0 017437 0 013685 z as 10 0 013549 Standard Deviation 0 002864 Stem Basal Area CV 100 0 002864 0 013549 21 13611 To calculate Quadratic Mean DBH Quadratic Mean DBH mm 1272 1492 132 1372 1192 124 1412 98 1352 144 10 1313 An alternative calculation of Stem Basal Area CV is Variance of DBH Standard Deviation of DBH 3646 106 Stem Basal Area CV 3646 106 100 17250 6 21 13611 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Crops Initial Crop Examples The subset information required to construct a crop includes the subset stocking subset mean height and subset mean DBH In addition the maximum DBH of the whole stand and the height coefficient of variation of the whole stand must be entered The following charts show examples of the distribution of height and DBH of an initial crop derived from subset measurements 360 stems ha were selected from 850 stems ha This subset had a mean height of 7m mean DBH of 127mm The height CV was 10 The differences in the maximum DBH result in d
25. 1 Stand velocity stand density where there are values for both stand average velocity and stand average density 2 Stand velocity no density where there is a value for stand average velocity only 3 No velocity stand density where there is a value for stand average density only One of these options must be selected from the dropdown picklist and the relevant measurements should be specified in the following properties Stand average Acoustic Average age at which the stand average velocity Velocity Age measurements were taken If this value is specified then an actual measurement should be specified for just one of the following four instrument types Stand average Acoustic Data measured using a FAKOPP instrument Velocity FAKOPP Measurement Stand average Acoustic Data measured using a IML instrument Velocity IML Measurement Stand average Acoustic Data measured using a ST300 pre 2007 instrument Velocity ST300 pre 2007 Measurement Stand average Acoustic Data measured using a ST300 instrument Velocity ST300 Measurement Outerwood Breast Height A measured value starting point of stand average Density outerwood breast height basic density kg m Outerwood Breast Height The age at which the stand average outerwood breast Density Age height density measurement was taken The FFRMOE model requires no external properties to be specified but from the specified crop and
26. 1000Index Growth Model for Eucalyptus fastigata was developed by the Eucalypt Cooperative To achieve consistency with other recent models the growth model was modified by ES Sc 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Description Mark Kimberley in 2013 to use and output a volume MAI based productivity index It is now available only to companies who are members of BOTH the Radiata Management and Diversified Species Themes of Future Forests Research Limited FFR The 1000Index is a volume productivity index and is defined as the mean annual volume increment in m ha yr at an age of 15 years for an index regime planted at 1250 stems ha with no pruning or thinning Neither thinning nor pruning effects are currently included in the model The model has not been validated against independent data The Individual Tree Growth Model developed by the Stand Growth Modelling Cooperative It is now available only to members of the Radiata Management Theme of FFR NZ Regional State Space Models Eight models are available covering most of New Zealand These models were developed by the Stand Growth Modelling Cooperative It is now available only to members of the Radiata Management Theme of FFR Lusitanica and Macrocarpa The two growth models Lusitanica and Macrocarpa were developed for NZ grown cypress species by Scion They are now avai
27. 13 Hunter R amp Gibson A R 1984 Predicting Pinus radiata site index from environmental variables New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science 14 1 53 64 14 Bannister H M 1962 Some variation in the growth pattern of Pinus radiata in New Zealand New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science 5 342 370 15 Brown G S 1962 Stages in branch development and their relation to pruning New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science 8 4 608 622 196 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 16 Grace J C Pont D Goulding C J amp Rawley B 1999 Modelling branch development for forest management New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science 29 3 17 Inglis C S amp Cleland M R 1982 Predicting final branch size in thinned Radiata Pine stands FRI Bulletin No 3 pp 17 New Zealand Forest Service Rotorua 18 Madgwick H A I 1994 Pinus radiata biomass form and growth Rotorua 19 Pont D 2001 Use of Phyllotaxis to predict arrangement and size of branches in Pinus radiata New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science 31 2 247 262 20 Sutton W R J 1970 Effect of initial spacing on branch size a summary of results to date Paper presented at the FRI Symposium No 12 Pruning and Thinning 21 Woollons R C Haywood A amp McNickle D C 2002 Modeling internode length and branch characteristics for Pinus radiata in New Zealand Forest Ecology and
28. Forecaster Because breakage can vary significantly from stem to stem stochastic estimates are produced to simulate this variation This allows Forecaster to give a more realistic estimate of the effect of breakage on the amount of volume recovered and the log mix Most breakage equations only predict the first break point while some predict multiple break points and sections of shatter on the felled stem 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Branch Models Two branch models are available Models Available 1 the public domain Generic Branch Model and 2 BLOSSIM which is available only to members of the Radiata Management Theme of Future Forests Research Limited FFR Generic Branch Model The generic model is available to all users It is a species independent model i e although it is based on the branching habit of radiata it can be parameterised to represent other species Unlike for BLOSSIM modelled branches do not respond to the stand s region therefore users need to set parameters that are appropriate for the situation being simulated Generic Branch Model Properties The generic functions and default parameters are based on results published by Madgwick 1994 48 Grace et al 1999 26 and other published work on Pinus radiata The lengths of annual shoots are determined using a height age model G Branch Model Properties Generic Branch Abscission Parameters
29. Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Available Standard Charts At the end of a simulation a number of on screen graphs are available via the Report Manager Graphs menu Stocking Distributions Graph The Graphs Stocking Distributions menu command is available if the stocking distributions report table contains information for the selected scenarios Selecting this menu item will open a report window showing the rows in the report table with histograms of the selected distributions below it 4 Stocking Distributions e ox Select rows to display the distributions Distribution of Stocking by Volume fab1eaS1 6bda 4102 8171 58b4702e2476 GE Pre WasteThinning Age 4 05 GE Post WasteThinning Age 4 05 N n o N gt r o o Stocking stems ha a o yi 0 0 008 0 01 0 012 0 014 0 016 0 018 0 02 0 022 0 024 0 026 Volume m3 Forecaster 1 9 0 710 23 03 2011 10 17 a m The distribution of stocking can be viewed by stem variables such as DBH stem Volume height as well as pruning variables Rows can be selected by a single click anywhere in the row use Ctrl click or Shift click to select several rows Note that only one variable at a time can be used to classify stocking In a selection of rows containing several variables those which do not match the first row are ignored For example pressing Ctrl A to select all rows will show all the DBH distributions in the report table Each histo
30. GM400Index The 400Index Growth Model 9 for coast redwood was jointly developed by the New Zealand Redwood Company Ltd and NZ Forestry Ltd It is now available only to companies who are members of both the Radiata Management and the Diversified Species Themes of Future Forests Research Limited FFR The 400Index is a volume productivity index and is defined as the mean annual volume increment in m ha yr at an age of 40 years thinning to 400 stems ha at 15 m MTH Neither thinning nor pruning effects are currently included in the model The model was developed as an interim model largely based upon the limited dataset from which it was developed however a validation study concluded that the model s performance was generally reasonable GM500Index The 500Index Growth Model 2 for Douglas fir was initially developed by the New Zealand Farm Forestry Association with subsequent improvements by the Douglas fir Research Cooperative It is now available only to members of the Diversified Species Theme of Future Forests Research Limited FFR The 500Index is a volume productivity index and is defined as the mean annual volume increment in m ha yr at an age of 40 years thinning to 500 stems ha at 15 m MTH Thinning effects are modelled using a time shift approach Pruning effects are not included in the model The model has been validated and improved a number of times and found to be generally unbiased GM1000Index The
31. Generic oa DER we E Model DistributionOfF orkHeight NumberOfLeadersProbabilities ProbabilityOfStemF orking DistributionO fF orkHeight The mean and coefficient of variation of the distribution of the fork height as 4 percent of stem height Field Description Cancel Apply Help The following table describes the functions of the fields in the Forking Model Properties form Distribution Of Fork Height Description The mean and coefficient of variation std deviation mean of the percentage fork height This is a percentage of the interval between prune height or breast height on an unpruned stem and twice breast height below the stem height The default parameters 50 1 gives a broad distribution of prune height centred at about half height Number Of Leaders Probabilities Probability Of Stem Forking The probabilities of 2 3 4 leaders By default 80 of stems that fork have 2 leaders and 20 have 3 There is no limitation to the number of leaders that can occur provided the probabilities sum to 1 The probability of a stem forking This is 5 in the default parameters Modelling unforked stands To model all stems without forking click on forking model Properties in the function set and set the probability of stem forking to zero 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Diameter of Leaders For information only The
32. Institute Limited 189 Forecaster v2 0 Command Line Interface Forecaster can be run in command line mode FCMD Forecaster CoMmanD In this case entities are defined in csv files see CSV section and Forecaster is run from a command line prompt Entering the command FCMD with no arguments will display a description of the available options for example Forecaster command line FCMD V1 7 1 2 Copyright c 2008 New Zealand Forest Research Institute All rights reserved FCMD CropsFile csv file CropsGroup group SitesFile csv file SitesGroup group RegimesFile csv file RegimesGroup group FunctionSetsFile csv file FunctionSetsGroup group ReportOptionsFile csv file ReportOptionsGroup group MessageFile message file OptionsFile options file ProjectsFile csv file ImportOnly true OR FCMD ProjectName project name MessageFile message file OptionsFile options file ImportOnly true where csv file is the name of a CSV file containing entities to be imported group is the name of a group containing existing entities message file is the name of the file in which messages are to be written options file is the name of the file containing system options project name is the full name to an existing project within Forecaster and ImportOnly true will mean that a simulation is not performed Examples 1 The following command line simulates an existing project within Forecaster FCMD Project Projects My Project
33. Log Product Definitions While some standard log product definitions and cutting strategies are available it is not currently possible to edit these within the Yield Generator interface they must be created or edited in the main Forecaster interface see Log Product Definitions and Cutting Strategies for more information Yield Generator Interface The Yield Generator interface has two main sections e an upper pane via which the user specifies the input data and conditions for a simulation and e a lower pane which displays the results of a successful simulation 182 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Yield Generator Interface P RAD GF14 Site Index m P RAD 300 Index m ha yr PSMEN Site Index m PSMEN 500 Index m3 ha yr SQSEM Site Index m SQSEM 400 Index m3 ha yr EpotTocsv Epor To Excel 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 183 Forecaster v2 0 Yield Generator Interface Field function The following table describes the fields and buttons on the Yield Generator interface Function The site information is typically determined by selecting a location directly on the displayed map zooming and panning as required see Spatial Site Selection Field Button Site tab i Site Data Longitude E 6 562 Atitude m 5311 T PRAD GF14 Ste Index m 34 21 7 P RAD 300 index m nan
34. Management 160 1 243 261 22 WAI Report INT 13 Revision of some Equations in the WAI Acoustic Velocity Model Feb 2008 by R Woollons B Manley and B Rawley 23 Development of a model that describes modulus of elasticity across broad environmental and stocking gradients by M Watt and B Zoric Canadian Journal of Forest Research submitted 24 Rawley B 2007 Basic density model updates WQI Report INT 11 Wood Quality Initiative Limited 25 Beets P N amp Jokela E J 1994 Upper mid crown yellowing in Pinus radiata some genetic and nutritional aspects associated with its occurrence New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science 24 35 50 26 Beets P N Robertson K Ford Robertson J B Gordon J amp Maclaren J P 1999 Description and validation of C_Change A model for simulating Carbon content in managed Pinus radiata stands New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science 29 3 409 427 27 Kimberley M O amp Beets P N 2007 A national volume function for estimating stem total volume of Radiata Pine stands established on fertile sites in New Zealand New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science 37 3 355 371 28 Kimberley M O amp Beets P N 2008 Forest Carbon Predictor Version 2 1 Description of Excel implementation of C_Change 29 Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry MAF Indicative Forest Sequestration Tables from http www maf govt nz climatechange reports sequestra
35. No items match your search Recent Places Desktop Libraries A Computer lt m C24134 Filename My Project project cov 7 Save as type Project Files project csv x Cancel Entities to export Project And Referenced Entities X Selecting Project and Referenced Entities the default behaviour will generate CSV files for the Project and for each of the entities that it has been configured to use whereas selecting Project Only will export only the Project itself The export process will create a file or set of files each of which has a file extension corresponding to its entity type The naming convention is for the file extension to include the entity type for example exporting a Crop will produce a name of the form myCrop crop csv 180 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Importing Data Similarly data can be imported from CSV files either as separate entities or as an entire Project To import data select the type of entity to be imported in the Tree View left Pane then right click inside the List View Pane From the Context menu select Import and browse to the CSV file containing the data to be imported Note that the file type in the Import dialog is automatically set to match the entity type When importing Projects the Import dialog includes the option to import either the entire Project including all of its component entities or just the Pro
36. Note that when selecting scenarios for an NPV graph only one scenario from any group need be selected all other available scenarios from that group will be automatically included in the graph Note that when interpreting differences between the NPV curves of different regimes users should be aware that the stochastic methods used throughout the modelling process can influence the final outcome of any simulation To evaluate the impact the random seed should be changed see System Settings and the simulation re run Repeating this 4 5 times should provide an indication of whether the differences are real or merely caused by these random effects Doing this may show that the lead in terms of NPV changes between more than one regime under evaluation which means that any differences between them cannot be quantified within Forecaster 152 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Report Options amp Net Present Value 3 e iss View Net Present Value Project P Projects Demo Project Site 5 Ld Sites Demodata BoP Medium gt Crop C Crops DemoData Demo1 K Net Present Value Net Present Val 32 33 34 Clearfell Age years Variable by Age Graphs A number graphs are available to display various stand level measures throughout the period of the project s simulation they are accessed via Report Manager s Graphs Variable By Age menu item They can b
37. The stems are sorted into order based on the stem variable s selected When there is a tie during sorting based on pruned lift number or pruned height this is resolved by comparing the DBHxHeight value of the two stems The larger stem being selected The sort order is reversed if selection is from largest to smallest rather than smallest to largest The required variability of the ordering is then considered If strict ordering is required no change is made otherwise the position in the sorted list is considered the average position in a normal distribution of positions and a new position is sampled from this distribution As the required variability increases so does the variance of the distribution As a special case random ordering is handled separately by placing stems in the list at random The ordered stem list is used as the basis for considering candidates for the Operation For thinning events the required number of stems to achieve the thinning target are selected from the ordered stem list each of these stems are thinned out For pruning events the first stem in the ordered stem list is considered for pruning If it can be pruned to meet the pruning constraints then it is If not this stem is skipped and the next stem in the order is then considered until the target number of stems can be pruned If sufficient stems can be selected to exceed stand level targets eg stocking or basal area then the last stem
38. can be common in the lower half of the South Island Infection levels may be managed by following these strategies e Winter pruning should be avoided as this is known to lead to higher rates of infection e Incidence is also related to stub size with stubs less than 30 mm rarely associated with fluting Infection rates may be tempered by painting larger stubs with a barrier fungicidal compound such as Garrison Higher initial stockings could be considered in order to limit branch growth Reference Dick M A 2007 Forest Pathology in New Zealand No 23 www ensisjv com ResearchCapabilitiesAchievements ForestHealthBiosecurityandFire Forest PestFactSheet Nectriaflutecanker tabid 433 Default aspx HTML File Nectria html Select Content Details Attached from C Documents and Settings narayanp Desktop Advice examples Nectria_files by narayanp at 1 07 2010 1 39 28 p m OK Cancel Apply Help The HTML file can be embedded in the Practical Advice entity by dragging and dropping the file onto this tab or by clicking the Select Content button If together with the HTML file there is a folder with the same name suffixed with files then these files are assumed to be associated with the HTML file and they are also copied into the Practical Advice entity The files folder usually contains any images associated with the HTML file Microsoft Word will 172 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Insti
39. description that helps to identify it Report Options Displays the currently set Report Options If blank this needs to be set by clicking the button which opens the Select Report Options form 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Field Button Projects Function Economic Settings List of Combinations Entities tabs Select Report Options A Reor k Options GHO DemoData ey gy Demol i i a Silvi Scheduling GHA IFS demos iy a Demol Light 0k Cancel Help eme Hep Select the relevant Report Options and click Ok Displays the optional Economic Settings entity associated with the Project Clicking the button allows the tree of existing Economic Settings entities to be browsed in order to select one of them Clicking the X button removes the current Economic Settings entity from the Project If this checkbox is ticked a new form is displayed showing all possible combinations If the checkbox is cleared the entities view is restored See below for more information on the List of Combinations display Tabs are present for all 4 of the major entity types To select for for instance the relevant crops click on the Crops tab and click in the tick box next to the relevant crop The entity tabs are e Function Sets A function set defines the models and functions that will be used to simulate the growth of a crop on a site e Sites Sites are used to defi
40. examined If either the simulation has failed or the Show Messages option is enabled ticked in the Tools menu the Message Viewer is displayed 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Projects Message Viewer The Message Viewer is a reporting tool which displays error and information messages generated during a simulation As there are often many steps to a simulation and many messages may be generated for each step a filtering mechanism is provided to displayed only those messages that are of interest The Message Viewer initially displays messages for the entire simulation However by clicking on a folder for a particular stage of the simulation only messages for that stage are displayed Pie e amp EE ATLAS Messages Forecaster 1 5 1 0 Menu Bar Sy All Messages Message Combination 1 Crop Demol Site B L Creating modelled stand 5 Command 1 MeanDOS gt 170 m Growing to trigger Event 1 Prune Event 2 WasteThin Command 2 MeanDOS gt 170 mi Growing to trigger Dbh value out of range 7 0mm is outside limits of 28 69mm Height value out of range 3 551m is outside limits of 32 49m Jun 2005 Age 4 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 135 12 Jul 2005 Age 4 05 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 138 20 Aug 2005 4ge 4 15 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 141 07 Sep 2005 Age 4 25 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 144 20
41. flow items costs and revenues These are all entered and edited via the Economic Settings form 4 Economic Settings New Economic Settings AID Be po 5j General Info General Costs Event related Costs Revenues Name New Economic Settings Description General Information Carbon Base Discount Rate 0 Carbon Price 0 00 S t CO2 e Initial Land Value 0 00 ha Carbon Discount Rate 0 Final Land Value 0 00 S ha Non planted Area 0 ha ha Age of Earliest Stand Management Use Age of Earliest Cost Item 1st Rotation Crop 5 Specify Earliest Age 5 2nd or later Rotation Crop Sensitivity Analysis Base Discount Rate Variation 0 General Costs Variation 0 Carbon Price Variation 0 Annual Costs Variation 0 Log Prices Variation 0 Event Costs Variation 0 Harvesting Costs Variation 0 Ca Go Get Ge General Information Base Discount Rate This is the rate at which all costs and revenues except for Carbon which has its own discount rate see below will be discounted back from the age at which they apply to the starting age Initial and Final Land Values The planting and harvesting of a crop of trees will affect the condition of the land changing its value between pre planting and post harvest To cater for this the land is effectively bought at the start of an economic analysis and then sold when the crop is clearfelled This avoids the problems of discount rates for the land and other cos
42. in the selected cell whereas pasting a condition will overwrite the condition in the selected cell When pasting a row it will be inserted immediately before the current row 104 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Regimes Drag and Drop A row or cell individual can be copied or moved using Drag and Drop This may be useful when the order of events within a command or when the order of commands themselves needs to be changed An item can be moved by placing the mouse pointer over the item then dragging and dropping it on the destination location The mouse pointer will change to indicate that a drag operation is in progress If the item s being dragged may be dropped onto the item under the mouse pointer then it will be highlighted or a separator will be displayed to indicate either where the item being dragged will be inserted or which item will be overwritten If the item s being dragged may not be dropped on the item under the mouse pointer then the mouse pointer will change into the o symbol Note that when dragging and dropping an event it will be inserted either before or after the event onto which it is dropped A red line indicates the position at which the event will be inserted An arrowhead in the middle of the line indicates which command the event will belong to when it is dropped For example in the screenshot below a Thin to Waste event is being dragged If it is dropped it
43. is available only to members of the SWI KimberleyDFir2002 The New Zealand density model for douglas fir This model is available only to members of the Diversified Species Theme of FFR FFRDensity2011 The FFR density model for radiata pine This model is available only to members of the Radiata Management Theme of FFR Selected if no density modelling is required Requirements All density models model use a stand average measurement of density and the age at which the measurement was taken These values are held in a single property which can be set on the selected model via the FunctionSet see below or on any Crop or Site During an analysis the models will use any crop level values in preference to site level values and if neither are present then the model level values will be used amp Density Model Properties NzMeanWoodDensity gt Lo Jea ee 24 4 Start Point esis PMc cee kee vet 400 20 OWBHD measurement kg m3 Age years Outerwood breast height density measurement and age of measurement x cancel apply J Hep 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Property Name Description OWBHD measurement kg m3 Age years A measured value of stand average outerwood breast height basic density kg m and the age at which the measurement was taken Note that in Forecaster v1 11 thi
44. must be consistent with those expected by the models and functions that use them A site s properties are used by some growth models and wood properties models see Density Models and Stiffness Models and they can be used to override any corresponding properties specified on the FunctionSet see Properties 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Sites Spatial Site Selection The Site Selector form allows the location of a site within New Zealand to be selected directly from a map l amp Site Location Selector Coverage The Far North Latitude S 176 698 The North North meets South 429 7 1 i P RAD GF 14 Site Index m 32 54 Pies hg Baik NGS YK er P RAD 300 Index m2 ha yr 28 75 Yeas PE PSMEN site Index m PSMEN 500 Index m2 ha yr SQSEM Site Index m SQSEM 400 Index m3 ha yr CULUS Site Index m CUMAC Site Index m E fastigata Site Index m Growth Modelling Region Mean Annual Air Temperatur sy a Mean Annual Air Temperatur Recalculate EOS OE oS ny yA Mean Minimum Autumnal Air T Latitude S 38 227 J z z AA J OWBHD from surface kg m3 Longitude E 176 698 Y y 7 F Se 5 1 i OWBHD measurement kg m3 NZMG Northing 6 324211 NZMG Easting 2833843 Nitrogen Score Phosphorous Score When a location is selected variou
45. of Return IRR value The IRR is the value of the discount rate for which the NPV equals zero Note that since there is a distinct discount rate for carbon data an IRR value can be meaningfully calculated only either when there is no carbon data present or when the carbon discount rate is equal to the base discount rate being used taking into account any variation on the base discount rate In all other cases there will be no value of IRR produced and a warning message will be published Note too that in the case where the sum of all undiscounted costs exceeds the sum of all undiscounted revenues no value of IRR can be calculated since no matter what discount rate is selected the total discounted revenues can never match the total discounted costs When this occurs a warning message will be published and the analysis will continue with no value for IRR for that scenario Land Expectation Value This is effectively the NPV of a regime in perpetuity i e assuming replanting the same regime over and over again with the same costs revenues etc LEV NPV1 x 1 i 9t 1 i t 1 where NPV1 the single rotation NPV i the discount rate t the interval between rotations the economic rotation length plus the regeneration lag Stumpage The stumpage is calculated as the sum of all log product revenues at clearfell ha 166 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Break ev
46. of Stem Pruned Prune to x percent of the total height of the stem If on second and subsequent lifts the calculated prune height is not greater than the current prune height then the tree is not pruned Pruning Constraints Puring State caliper Caliper Pruning Constraints TEN Caliper Width mm Value Prune all branches below the height at which the stem over bark diameter is equal to the caliper width usually 90 to 100 mm If the stem is currently pruned to or beyond the caliper height then the stem is not pruned Stems with over bark diameter at 0 8m that are smaller than the caliper diameter are not pruned In this section Pruning Behaviour Using Forecaster to Manage Pruning Behaviour 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 121 Forecaster v2 0 Pruning Behaviour Regimes The Is_Crop Stem attribute is also considered as a result of the flexibility allowed by the Prune Event form explained in the previous topic How the different combinations of the fields in the Prune Event form and the Is_Crop_ Stem attribute is handled are explained in the following tables For the first pruning event Notes Is_Crop_ Prune Prune Beh vigur Reason Stem Stocking 3 At least X of stems X lt 100 prevents small z marked with rogue stems from Is_Crop_Stem TRUE delaying the pruning must be pruned event Error Pruned stocking Is_Crop_Stem
47. overlaid Figure 2 it is clear how they converge at around age 25 at which age all stems in the stem list are larger than the volume equation s minimum values 14 16 18 20 2 24 26 28 Age years Figure 2 Total Standing Volume T237 Red Safe Green Extrapolated Although T237 is often used as a volume equation for radiata of average form 5 it is characterised by a narrow range of base data When a volume equation with a broader basis is used the differences between the safe mode and extrapolations are much smaller Equation 460 has the following range Range of data min DBH 16 0 mean Volume 2 3 max DBH 77 0 max Height 50 0 min Height 12 0 This equation produces the following total standing volume curves Figure 3 when used in the 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available same regime in both safe and extrapolated mode No differences are visible after age 9 1 6 Age years Figure 3 Total Standing volume T460 Red Safe Green Extrapolated 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Breakage Equations Breakage equations are used to predict e the probability that a stem will break when felled e the average height at which a stem will break and e the distribution of break heights about the average These equations are used as part of the simulation of harvesting within
48. recommended and supports genetic improvement Description P rad AK CLAYS P fertilised Shula 1986 Site index is defined as Mean Top Height at age 20 Coefficients and constants B C Al A2 6 049445E 001 O 000000E 000 O0 000000E 000 2 726208E 000 0 000000E 000 C1 B1 B2 TO HO 9 152051E 001 O 000000E 000 0 000000E 000 0 000000E 000 0 000000 000 Base 2 000000E 001 Model Data ranges Warnings Errors min max min max Height 4 0 48 0 0 0 99 9 Site Index 22 0 38 0 1 0 99 9 Age 5 0 35 0 0 0 199 9 Read from C Documents and Settings All Users Application Data 4TLAS Technology MPKSystemModels Ok Cancel Help ok cme He This button toggles between showing and hiding the Function Set elements that correspond to the Species Sets defined for the Function 60 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Function Sets Field Button Function Set Each element is displayed in a separate tab Add Remove When showing the species specific elements these buttons allow the buttons addition and removal of elements for the Function Set Species Set Used to specify the Species Set to be associated with a new Function Set element Pressing the button displays the Species Set Selection form Select a Species Set Eten Species Sets L 4 Radiata Cancel Help Select the required Species Set and click Ok Adding models and functions In Forecaste
49. reference to latest Douglas fir work here currently unpublished MPI report These adjustments are applied to and have been validated for use with the DFNat500Index growth model and the Douglas fir sheath density model When C_change is used for species other than Pinus radiata or Douglas fir then the model applies no adjustments i e radiata pine biomass allocation and decay functions are assumed Reports When Forecaster has completed a simulation the results are available in two forms 1 Charts Within the Report Manager select Graphs Variable by Age Rotation 1 Carbon or Rotation 2 Carbon to view the time series of carbon sequestered either in each of the different pools or in total 2 Data Within the Report Manager select Export AnnualCropCondition Table to export the data in tabular form The following 12 columns contain the carbon information RiTotalCarbon_t_per_ha R1iAboveGroundLiveCarbon_t_per_ha R1BelowGroundLiveCarbon_t_per_ha R1iDeadWoodyLitterCarbon_t_per_ha RiFineLitterCarbon_t_per_ha R1iShrubUnderstoreyCarbon_t_per_ha R2TotalCarbon_t_per_ha R2AboveGroundLiveCarbon_t_per_ha R2BelowGroundLiveCarbon_t_per_ha R2DeadWoodyLitterCarbon_t_per_ha R2FineLitterCarbon_t_per_ha R2ShrubUnderstoreyCarbon_t_per_ha Note that R1 and R2 designate rotation 1 and rotation 2 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Contacts for Models Scion www scionresearch com
50. referred to by others for example a log product definition that is listed in a cutting strategy cannot be deleted until the reference is removed or referring entity is deleted Simulate Starts a simulation on a selected project Species List Opens a form for editing the list of species Options Opens the tabbed form for editing the system and 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Introduction Drop Down Description Options user options Closes all windows If changes have been made ina form then the user is prompted to save first Switches focus to the selected window Displays on line help documentation Displays current version numbers for Forecaster and its components Licence Details Shows the licensed options contained within your system 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Introduction Working with Entities For each entity type there is a tree structure containing both folders Groups and entities of that type A new entity can be created by selecting the required folder in the Tree View Pane then either right clicking in the List View Pane or clicking on the New button on the toolbar Other operations can be performed on an entity by right clicking it and selected from the context menu Cut Copy Paste Delete Rename Import from CSV file Export to CSV file There are eight Forecaster entitie
51. respond to location specific variables such as altitude or rainfall These functions include Stand height age function 112 DOS function DOS1999 Sweep model Generic Forking model Generic Tree volume and taper function 460 All NZ 3 point Wood Density model FFRDensity Wood stiffness model WQI AcousticVelocity Heartwood model FFRWQI2009 Branch Index BIX KnowlesKimberley1997 Some hybrid functions include both regional effects as well as location specific variables Regional effects are specified for the following models via model properties e 300 Index growth model Regional drift parameter e BLOSSIM branch model Regional setting Those functions which respond to location specific variables can obtain values from a series of geo surfaces rainfall altitude growth indices etc that are incorporated in the modelling system These regional function sets can be used as a starting point for creating a more localized set if there are particular local conditions that can be modelled more precisely using different functions Default Function Sets for Other Species Function sets are also available for E fastigata Cmacrocarpa C lusitanica Redwoods and Douglas fir Because the models for these species are not yet as mature as those for radiata pine they are mostly national function sets although a Douglas fir regional function set is available for the Nelson region 2014 New Zealand Forest Research
52. selected is duplicated and its weighting apportioned between selected and unselected lists to represent the correct target value 112 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Regimes Simplified example If 350 stems are selected for pruning Weighting 100 41 Total 350stems pruned ha stocking Total 600 stems Total 250 stems Stocking ha unpruned ha stocking Pruning stem selection for example Order Stems By x Fewest Pruning Lifts Stem Ordering Strict Largest DBH Random ide Largest DBH x Height ines i Largest Pruned Height 0 Most Pruning Lifts 3 Smallest DBH Smallest DBH x Height hi Smallest Height Pruning Strategy Height z Two options are available Reprune currently pruned stems or select stems to meet a target stocking e The reprune option is useful for second and subsequent prunings when there is no attempt at reselection and there is no catch up pruning Reprune is likely to result in fewer stems being pruned in each subsequent operation as the growth model s mortality calculations will reduce the stocking represented by the pruned stems in the list In most cases this reduction in pruned stocking will be small e Prune to a target Three values need to be set The target stocking the variable s used to order the stems and the variability of the ordering Stems can be ordered ona number of varia
53. site it uses e Mean Minimum Autumnal Air Temperature derived from the installed temperature surface using the site s location e Stand level historic values of annual mean stem slenderness and annual mean stem ht e Stem level historic values of annual DBH and annual ht 88 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Between stem Variation The FFRMOE model includes inter stem variation based on the difference between the stem s slenderness and the stand s mean slenderness and the WQIAcousticVelocity model also uses stem level data stem fatness Outputs When a Stiffness model is selected where the model is within its valid range the following values will be output in result tables Result Table Values LogTrace values for each log Acoustic Velocity WQIAcousticVelocity only MOE FFRMOE only LogSummary values for each Mean Acoustic Velocity WQIAcousticVelocity only Log Product Mean MOE FFRMOE only LogYield values for each Log Acoustic Velocity min mean max and standard deviation Product WQIAcousticVelocity only MOE min mean max and standard deviation FFRMOE only Mean log Acoustic Velocity can be used as a constraint within a log product definition see Log Product Definitions but should only be used when the WQIAcousticVelocity model is selected If StemPiece Details is selected in the Standard Charts tab of Report Opt
54. stem list are plotted according to their DBH and Height values against the bottom horizontal axis and left vertical axis Actual values are indicated by the olive circles and predicted values by green circles The mean top diameter mean top height point is drawn as a diamond shape Arrows from the top axis show the position of the mean top diameter MTD and quadratic mean diameter QMD The height DBH curve is drawn through the stem points showing the average height as a function of DBH The distribution of stocking stems per hectare as recorded in the weighting associated with each stem is shown by DBH along the bottom horizontal axis The right vertical axis measures the stocking by DBH class The distributions of stocking by stem height and prune height if measured are shown along the left vertical axis The top horizontal axis measures the stocking by height class Basic stand parameters of stocking basal area and mean top height are included in the report heading together with the maximum DBH and the percentage coefficients of variation of stem basal area height and height about the height DBH curve average Holding the mouse over points or bars on the report will pop up the X Y values of the item Clicking and dragging from top left to bottom right will zoom to the selected rectangle The reverse gesture will un zoom The tool bar at the top of the form can be used to change the style of the report and print copy and save
55. the minimum lift is unspecified then this strategy functions as a simple prune to height with a green crown remaining constraint If the green crown remaining constraint is unspecified then maximum height will be applied up to the height of the stem By not specifying a minimum lift and setting a large maximum height with a realistic green crown remaining constraint this becomes pruning to a green crown remaining If the minimum prune lift and minimum green crown remaining constraint cannot both be met then the stem is not pruned On the first pruning the minimum lift is the minimum pruned height as it is assumed that an unpruned stem is branched from ground level up This pruning strategy is implemented in four steps 1 Check whether the current prune height plus the minimum lift will leave at least the minimum green crown If not then don t prune Check whether the current prune height plus the minimum lift will exceed the maximum prune height If it will then don t prune If pruning to the maximum prune height will leave at least the T20 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Regimes Field Button Function minimum green crown then prune to the maximum prune height 4 Otherwise prune to a height that will leave at least the minimum green crown Pruning Constraints PuringStatew percentageofstem Percentage of Pruning Constraints Name Stem Percentage
56. the selected selected Table 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 157 Forecaster v2 0 StemPiece Details Chart Report Options This chart requires the separate application StemPiece Viewer to be installed Selecting StemPiece Details Chart from the Report Manager opens the StemPiece Viewer application The viewer displays stem level information on stem shape and size branching and wood quality attributes for the stempieces resulting from the currently selected scenario This tool is especially useful for determining reasons for the distribution of volume among log products lt gt StemPiece 23 of 74 Stem 93 Structure 1 Stem Piece Start 200 Eile Yiew Options Help Offset mm Position m e amp 5 5 amp a Demo Pul Demo Small Sawlog car o ww sayaweIg Position m Demo Pruned Branch DOB mm t Demo Pruned Diameter mm Demo Small Sawlog Demo Pulp a aibuy youewg 25 Position m Demo Pulp Demo Small Sawlog Waste Ur 3 o ww JayaWeIg Position m 158 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Economic Analysis By associating an Economic Settings entity with a Project the simulations using that Project can include an economic analysis Economic Settings Entity An Economic Settings entity consists of a number of base settings and several collections of cash
57. the specifications for log Definition products in terms of dimension shape branching and wood quality parameters 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Introduction Description Mean Top Height The implementation of MTH used in Forecaster is based on the standard definition used in New Zealand The height predicted by the Petterson height DBH curve for a DBH corresponding to the quadratic mean DBH of the 100 largest trees per hectare based on DBH in a stand 2 Project One or more entity combinations which each define one or more scenarios A combination of entities will give rise to multiple scenarios if there are multiple clearfell ages and or cutting strategies within the regime Regime The Forecaster entity that defines the operations to be simulated on the crop by defining commands containing event conditions and events eg pruning thinning and clearfelling Contains links to entities for stem selection strategies used to select stems for pruning and thinning and cutting patterns used to predict log yields from production thinning and clearfelling Report Options The Forecaster entity that defines the types of information that will be produced from one simulation that is when a Project is analysed Only tables that are pre defined in the Report Options will be available Report Manager Tool used to manage the results from a simulation run called
58. to have a higher needle retention score up to 3 ProductionThinPercent This is the percentage of the thinned stem volume that is removed from the site during a production thinning By default this value is set to 75 To adjust this to fit your own circumstances follow the same procedure as for Clear Fell percentage above but where the simulated harvest event is a production thin The parameters are stored as properties of the model To view or edit them click on the Properties button next to the Carbon Model selection field in the FunctionSet form A DES i E Model ClearFellPercent NeedleRetentionScore ProductionT hinPercent ClearFellPercert Percent of the clearfelled stem volume removed from the site Cancel Apply Help PLZ 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Modelling Carbon Sequestration for Other Species The core components of carbon modelling are 1 volume and density models which define the amount of biomass produced throughout the rotation 2 allocation and decay functions which control how that biomass is allocated throughout different parts of the tree and litter pools 3 the rate of decay of dead matter 29 While the biomass allocation and decay functions within C_change are specific to radiata pine only adjustment functions for Douglas fir are implemented in order to account for the differences in allocation and decay of this species need
59. tree height of 15 5788300704081m Volume is equal to total tr Level of 15 2275835652994m is greater than tree height of 15 2275835652994m Volume is equal to total tr Level of 14 7547174656965m is greater than tree height of 14 7547174656965m Volume is equal to total tr Level of 13 7820352486719m is greater than tree height of 13 7820352486719m Volume is equal to total tr Level of 12m is greater than tree height of 12m Volume is equal to total tree volume by definition Level of 12 3457904837415m is greater than tree height of 12 3457904837415m Volume is equal to total tr Jan 2010 Age 5 Pruned 450 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 112 39 Height value out of range 9 800m is outside limits of 12 50m Height value out of range 9 797m is outside limits of 12 50m Height value out of range 9 455m is outside limits of 12 50m Height value out of range 9 424m is outside limits of 12 50m Height value out of range 8 645m is outside limits of 12 50m Height value out of range 7 775m is outside limits of 12 50m Height value out of range 51 024m is outside limits of 12 50m Heioht value out of ranne 11 839m is outside limits of 17 50m 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 169 Forecaster v2 0 Practical Advice Double clicking on the selected item or clicking on the button will show further details of the practical advice Message Detail wE DER te Infection by Nectria flute canker ma
60. which the variable is greater than the target value whereas if the variable is decreasing with time the expression will evaluate to True for the first month in which the variable is ess than the target value For example for the Condition Crop BasalArea 4 5 and where the basal area values are as follows Date Basal Area Dec 2020 3 80 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 then the Condition will evaluate to True in March 2021 since this is the first month in which the value of Basal Area exceeds the target value of 4 5 Care should be taken when comparing variables using the equality operator particularly when the variable being compared does not change during a simulation and it includes a fractional part For example the following condition Site SiteIndex 25 0 will only evaluate to True if the site index is exactly 25 0 which is very unlikely to be the case if the value of Site Index is derived Given this it is recommended that the operators gt or lt operators are used in such cases 178 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 System Settings System Settings There are a series of settings that can be modified using the Tools Options menu item The settings are grouped according to the part of Forecaster they apply to General Mensuration etc Three levels of settings are used e Default these settings cannot be changed they ar
61. with a smaller angle may be specified Internodal Wood 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 133 Forecaster v2 0 Tab Heading Description Log Product Definitions Wood Property Indicators The Internodal Wood fields describe the log s constraints based on internodal clearwood sections It requires the specification of e the minimum total length of all internodes e a number of internodes to be of at least a certain length and e another length that all of the other internodes must exceed This phrasing is intended to read like a sentence for example a valid log must have a minimum total length of 4 0 m of internodal material with at least 2 internodes longer than 1 0 m and all of the remaining internodes being at least 60 cm long Dimensional Shape Branching Wood Property Indicators Minimum Mean Log Density Minimum Acoustic Velocity Maximum Heartwood Diameter Maximum Proportion of Juvenile Volume It is also possible to constrain the log in terms of minimum mean density minimum acoustic velocity maximum heartwood diameter and or maximum percentage of juvenile core volume In these cases except for juvenile core volume which is always calculated an appropriate model must be selected in the Function Set and any required model properties must also be specified there 134 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaste
62. 00 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210 215 DBH mm at age 5 6 DBH mm at age 8 6 Cx Stand Density Management Diagram The Stand Density Management Diagram illustrates the development of a stand through time represented as a plot of stand density stocking against quadratic mean DBH on a log log scale Stand age is not explicitly illustrated but is represented by the progress of the plot upwards and to the left of the plot area Thus the development of the stand can be followed by starting at the bottom of the plot where stocking is closest to the planted stocking and average DBH very small As the average tree size increases eventually the trees begin to compete with each other for resources which introduces mortality so the stocking begins to 150 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Report Options decrease shown by the plot tipping towards the left An upper limit on the size density relationship has been observed and frequently published for a multitude of species across the world which essentially means that for any given stocking there is a maximum stem size which can be supported by the site s resources This introduces an asymptote to the SDMD which is represented by the Maximum SDI diagonal line and relates to a maximum Stand Density Index shown to be about 1200 for NZ grown Pinus radiata J Moore unpublished As the stand co
63. 151 Forecaster v2 0 Report Options Managing the trade off between individual tree vigour and competition induced mortality requires knowledge of the size density relationship hence the SDMD can be used by foresters to help understand whether the stand is under or over stocked When the SDI is between 35 and 55 of the maximum the level of between tree competition is ideal for promoting individual tree growth When the SDI is lower than 35 the stand is not taking full advantage of the site s resources Above 55 and competition induced mortality begins to increase much more rapidly As such thinning events can be timed to keep the stand within 35 55 of maximum SDI a range known as the management zone and represented on the SDMD by 2 further dotted lines Below is an example of a stand thinned to maximise time spent in the management zone Stand Density Management Diagram 1 000 500 200 100 Quadratic Mean DBH mm 50 20 200 500 1 000 2 000 Stocking stems ha Net Present Value NPV Graph This graph accessed via Graphs NPV Graph is available for a simulation that includes an economic analysis It displays values of NPV vs clearfell age for one or more scenario groups where a group is a number of scenarios with the same set of entities but differing in clearfell age typically from a regime with multiple clearfell ages Each scenario group will produce a separate line on an NPV graph
64. 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 DBH mm at age 11 3 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 144 Forecaster v2 0 Report Options Log Yield Report This PDF report summarises log making information including log product yields both gross and net and value derived from the net volume and the price stored in the cutting strategy This report will only be available if the Log Yield Table has been selected in the Report Options entity associated with the simulated project Log Yield Report ith FFR Forecaster Log Yield Report ScenariolD 89c0b666 1245 4b0e a5cf 036b5435c045 Simulation Start Time 12 11 2012 9 59 55 a m Project Projects Demo Project Crop Crops DemoData Demo1 Site Sites Demodata BoP Medium Regime Regimes DemoData Demo1 Function Set Function Sets Public Domain Demo Data Demo 1 Cutting Strategy Cutting Strategies DemoData Demo Strategy Clearfell at Age 30 Demo Pruned Demo Small Sawlog Demo Large S Demo Pulp l Total Recovered Vol Trim Allowance Waste Cutting Waste Total Extracted Vol 677 5 Felling Waste 85 9 141 85 9 Total standing voi 7633 100 763 3 Clearfell at Age 30 00 A Value ha GM Volume m2 ha GM Net Volume m ha Total Value 54 185 ha Total Volume 677 5 m ha Total Net Volume 677 5 m2 ha Value ha O 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25
65. 4065 64 181 6 mha 130 00 Clearfell Demo Small Sawlog 25 6033 74 1038 98 67 0 mha 90 00 Clearfell Demo Pulp 25 8657 39 1490 76 216 4 m ha 40 00 Clearfell Demo Large Sawlog 25 1997 05 343 88 33 3 mha 60 00 Clearfell Felling amp Extraction 25 7688 29 1323 89 512 6 m ha 15 00 Clearfell Transport 25 4612 98 794 33 512 6 mha 9 00 Clearfell Logging Overhead 25 1537 66 264 78 512 6 m ha 3 00 Clearfell Roading 25 1500 00 258 29 Annual Forestry 1to25 1296 00 615 64 Land Final Land Value 25 1980 00 340 95 Totals 3256 93 7280 21 Clearfell at 30 yrs Clearfell Demo Pruned 30 27141 49 3332 24 208 8 miha 130 00 Clearfell Demo Small Sawlog 30 11023 17 1353 35 122 5 m ha 90 00 Clearfell Demo Pulp 30 7726 94 948 66 193 2 miha 40 00 Clearfell Demo Large Sawlog 30 8293 84 1018 26 138 2 m ha 60 00 Clearfell Felling amp Extraction 30 9484 52 1164 44 677 5 mha 14 00 Clearfell Transport 30 6097 19 748 57 677 5 m ha 9 00 Forecaster v1 12 0 1075 Page 2 of 5 Prepared by clementb at 16 11 2012 2 01 p m 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 147 Forecaster v2 0 Economic Analysis Report it FFR Forecaster Sensitivity Analysis 1971 21 2318 75 1325 47 1389 69 1261 26 11729 26 11261 30 12197 21 1213 67 1067 84 1359 49 1901 60 1948 53 1854 67 SSSSSSsssKHHHRRRHEISSESSSESS Net Present Value ha 30 32 Clearfell Age years 148 2014 New Zealand
66. 460 Tree Taper Table 460 Breakage Table 1 a Wood Property Models Acoustic Velocity WGlAcousticVelocity _ Properties Density FFRDensty2011 Properties Heartwood FFRWaI2009 e Height Age Table DOS Function Forking Model Harvesting Stump Height 03 m Branching Branch Model Blossim BIX Model Microfibril Angle Spiral Grain Angle The defaults settings can be modified if necessary by selecting other models or functions and adding or changing values on their properties where Properties KnowlesKimberley1997 C Propertie None a Propertie Generate Default Function Set from Ste Generate Yield button Once the site regime and function set have been specified clicking the Generate Yield button will run a full simulation producing a yield table The crop condition and yield table reports and the crop condition graph will be displayed in the tabs in the lower pane Hide Messages check box generation Options o A Information Waming EE ATLAS Messages Forecaster 1 6 0 2 Ticking the box suppresses the display of the Message Viewer after the yield oO a Fatal Include Subfolders Suppress Duplicates tion 1 Crop Site Yield Creating modelled stand Command 1 Date 7 2000 r C Growing to tigger C Event 1 Plant C Command 2 Date 7 2005 r C Growing to trigger O Event 1 Prune C Event 2 WasteThin amp C C
67. 97 The Knowles Kimberley model is available to only members of the Radiata Management Theme of FFR 3 Knowles Douglas Fir The Knowles Douglas Fir model is available only to members of the Diversified Species Theme of FFR 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Sweep Models A generic sweep model has been implemented and is available to all Forecaster users Sweep is defined as a lack of straightness for all or part of a tree It is an important characteristic as many log grades are restricted by the amount of deflection or sweep they are allowed The term deflection means the amount a tree or log deviates away from a straight axis The sweep model works by generating sweep regions sections of the stem that are not straight and determining their position length shape and severity For example the diagram below show two generated regions of sweep Region 1 is Normal sweep from 7 9 to 11 8m with severity about 0 5 50 of end DOB Region 2 is a Hockey Stick from the ground to 2 8m with severity about 0 6 of end DOB Pre harvest assessment data can be used to estimate the frequencies of the number of swept regions Region Count Probabilities the distribution mean and standard deviation of the sweep severity as a proportion of end DOB Region Deviation Distribution the distribution of region lengths Region Length Distribution and the frequency of the different types of sw
68. CropHeight_m MaxCropHeight_m CVCropHeight SiteHeightindex_m Site300Index_m3_per_ha_per_year Site400Index_m3_per_ha_per_year Site500Index_m3_per_ha_per_year Site1000Index_m3_per_ha_per_year Thinning Coefficient RiTotalCO2_E_t_per_ha Report Options 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 155 Report Options Forecaster v2 0 1 When Export Entity Names is checked in Report Manager Field R1AboveGroundLiveCO2_E_t_per_ha R1BelowGroundLiveCO2_E_t_per_ha R1iDeadWoodyLitterCO2_E_t_per_ha RiFineLitterCO2_E_t_per_ha R2TotalCO2_E_t_per_ha R2AboveGroundLiveCO2_E_t_per_ha R2BelowGroundLiveCO2_E_t_per_ha R2DeadWoodyLitterCO2_E_t_per_ha R2FineLitterCO2_E_t_per_ha RiShrubUnderstoreyCO2_E_t_per_ha R2ShrubUnderstoreyCO2_E_t_per_ha ReinekesStandDensityIndex 2 Reineke s Stand Density Index RSDI is a measure of site occupancy of a stand which can be used to infer the level of competition and also the biological potential of the stand It can be thought of as converting both the stocking and BA to determine the equivalent number of 10 inch stems per hectare using the formula RSDI Stocking x Quadratic Mean DBH 25 4 1 605 where DBH is in cm 156 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Batch Mode Output Report Options The Batch Mode Output option is used when Forecaster is run from a comm
69. East eaten Site Indices Height Indices Height m Species GF Rating Base Age Years Dominance Measure B Add Xx Delete Volume Indices 300 Index 0 00 400 Index 0 00 3 500 Index 0 00 Volume MAI m2 ha annum Properties Coo cancel C ay Hep Site Form Details The following table describes the fields and buttons in the Site form and their usage Field Button Function Name Description A Site must have a name but the other attributes may be optional depending on the choice of FunctionSet A description should be entered to help users decide whether a pre defined Site is appropriate for a particular simulation Location and Latitude and altitude are required by the 300 Index growth model and Altitude some wood property models All values can be either entered directly into the form or populated using the Spatial Site Selector The units are e X Location degrees East e Y Location degrees South e Altitude metres above sea level Show Map button Opens the spatial site selection interface Using this a New Zealand Site can be selected from a map and its attributes and properties populated from geo spatial surfaces see Spatial site Selection Site Indices Site Indices are of two types 1 A height index provides an indication of potential height growth Site Index as used in STANDPAK is an example of a height index Height indices should be defined clearly for example t
70. Models Heartwood Models Implemented The currently available Heartwood models are e FFR2008 e FFRWQI2009 40 e None chosen when no Heartwood model is required Neither model requires any external properties to be specified by the user they use a stem s age and its site s location NZMG Easting and Northing to predict a heartwood value Between stem variation Neither model uses stem specific data but the FFRWQI2009 model includes inter stem variation using a randomized component Outputs When a Heartwood model is selected where the model is within its valid range the following values will be output in result tables Result Table Values LogTrace values for each log Heartwood volume Heartwood volume Small end Heartwood diameter Large end Heartwood diameter Maximum Heartwood diameter LogSummary value for each Log Maximum Heartwood diameter mean Product LogYield values for each Log Maximum Heartwood diameter min mean Product max and standard deviation Maximum heartwood diameter can be used as a constraint within a log product definition see Understanding Log Product Definitions but note that no such constraints should be used when the None model is selected If StemPiece Details is selected in the Standard Charts tab of Report Options the details of the predicted Heartwood values can be displayed in the StemPiece Viewer Limitations The FFR2008 model distinguishes a stem s loc
71. Nos forecaster Forecaster v2 0 User Manual All rights reserved No parts of this work may be reproduced in any form or by any means graphic electronic or mechanical including photocopying recording taping or information storage and retrieval systems without the written permission of the publisher Products that are referred to in this document may be either trademarks and or registered trademarks of the respective owners The publisher and the author make no claim to these trademarks While every precaution has been taken in the preparation of this document the publisher and the author assume no responsibility for errors or omissions or for damages resulting from the use of information contained in this document or from the use of programs and source code that may accompany it In no event shall the publisher and the author be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damage caused or alleged to have been caused directly or indirectly by this document Published 9 Jun 2014 in Rotorua New Zealand 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Table of Contents Introd ction eienenn niren a eae eet an Manual Organisation Terminology Main Interface Navigation Working with Entities PEO CUS ornnes n a EE e ea bd ca AEE ERA AEA EE E AAO S Setting Up a Project Running Simulations Message Viewer Report Manager Species SES innsinn e aaae aa Ea imam nines asanioaies Creating a Species Se
72. OS 158 02 Mar 2006 Age 4 95 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 159 25 Apr 2006 Age 5 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 159 92 May 2006 Age 5 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 161 18 Jun 2006 Age 5 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 163 31 Jul 2006 Age 5 05 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 165 65 Aug 2006 Age 5 15 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 167 95 Sep 2006 Age 5 25 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 170 48 Sep 2006 Age 5 25 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 135 71 Oct 2006 Age 5 4 Pruned 359 85 stems ha Mean lift DOS 139 59 Nov 2006 Age 5 55 Pruned 359 71 stems ha Mean lift DOS 143 43 Dec 2006 Age 5 65 Pruned 359 61 stems ha Mean lift DOS 147 08 Jan 2007 Age 5 75 Pruned 359 51 stems ha Mean lift DOS 150 53 la HHHOHHHHHHHDHHDHHHDUHH Ki NS 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Projects Report Manager The Report Manager allows reports and charts to be generated for one or more scenarios produced for each so that the selected scenarios can be directly compared i e the x and y scales are the same across all charts Current standard reports only contain a single scenario The Report Manager can be run in either of two ways e Following successful simulation of a project the Report Manager will open displaying all scenarios from that project e By clicking on th
73. Rate Variation is set to 1 5 then analyses will be run for discount rates of 5 5 4 0 and 7 0 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 161 Forecaster v2 0 When more than one variation type is specified not all combinations are analysed For each variation of the Base Discount Rate each of the other variations is separately applied in turn i e with all of the other settings at their base values For example if the Base Discount Rate and its variation are set as above and the Log Prices Variation is set to 3 and the Harvesting Costs Variation is set to 5 then the following analyses will be run Base Discount Log Prices Harvesting Rate Variation Costs Variation 5 5 0 7 0 0 4 0 0 5 5 0 7 0 0 4 0 0 5 5 0 7 0 0 4 0 0 5 5 5 7 0 5 4 0 5 5 5 5 7 0 5 4 0 5 Costs and Revenues The cash flow items of cost and revenue are managed in groups with each group accessible via its own grid on the form For most types of costs and revenues an age or a set of ages must be specified This determines the age s at which the cost or revenue will apply In some cases an age is irrelevant for example for Annual Costs which are simply applied every year from the earliest until the latest age of stand management In other cases the ages can be used to specify alternatives for example for Regime Event costs there could be multiple items for the same event but with different age
74. S Gea Calculating Plant Stocking 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 This requires the measurement age and stocking to be specified For example in the following form the Calculate button has been clicked after entering the required information Site Latitude Stocking 400 stems ha Altitude Basal Area 5 0 m2 ha 300 Index Mean Top Height 7 8 m Site Index Calculating 300 Index and Site Index 43 40 degrees South 220 5 masl 26 0 m3 ha year li To calculate 300 Index measurement data i e age stocking and basal area must be entered Similarly to calculate Site Index age stocking and mean top height must be entered For example in the following form the Calculate button has been clicked after entering the required information Plant Stocking uft Age 1 5 years Pruned Stocking stems ha Site 5 Latitude Stocking 850 5 stems ha Altitude Basal Area 6 0 m2 ha 300 Index Mean Top Height 7 5 m Site Index 43 40 degrees South 220 mas 27 3184 m3 ha year 35 012 m oa 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Stem Basal Area Coefficient of Variation Calculation An example of how to calculate the Stem Basal Area Coefficient of Variation CV is shown below Stem Plot Weighti DBH DBH Stem Basal Area Area ng g 11 0 02 25 127 16 129 0
75. Scenario Manager in version 1 0 Run The analysis of a Project Scenario A sequence of events that could happen in practice corresponding to one crop site function set regime clearfell age and cutting strategy Scenarios are given a unique ID and are the basis for comparisons of simulation results Simulation The analysis of a Project Site The Forecaster entity that defines the characteristics of the land Species Set The Forecaster entity containing a collection of one or more species that are used when constructing function sets and log product definitions Stem selection strategy Criteria used within a regime to determine which stems in a stemlist are to be treated by a silvicultural event 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Main Interface Getting Started Introduction Forecaster can be started from the Start menu Start All Programs Scion Forecaster or from the Forecaster shortcut if the installation process has put one on the desktop Main User Interface Forecaster s main user interface is similar in look and feel to Windows Explorer The form s title bar displays the version of Forecaster being run and the 2 databases to which it is connected Cc File Edit View Tools B 2 Entities EE Projects BO Sites i HHO _YieldGenerator i 2 Demodata iy PMC Default Sites Em Crops H O Function Sets
76. ScenariolD 7c8ba758 20d1 4020 8dd4 7d69bc347c89 Simulation Start Time 8 Oct 2013 1 16 33 p m Project Projects Framing multi thin Crop Crops FFR Q Silv Workshop WAKA 1000 Site Sites FFR Q Silv Workshop Whakarewarewa Forest Regime Regimes FFR Q Silv Workshop Framing Testing Multi thin No CF Framing multi thin Function Set Function Sets Regional Function Sets Central_North_Island Site Productivity Indices Height Site Index m J 340 B00 Index m3 ha annum 280 Thinning Details Oo o hing S Thing October 202 October 2024 a Sa Age years Scheduled On op Stem Ordering Basal Area m2 ha Crop A Stem Selection Residual Stocking 6 ight S ale Stocking stems ha 945 345 6 28 87 8 33 20 54 wn wo an Area m2 ha 33 37 9 30 24 0 Q M Diam Before mm Q M Diam Removed mm Stems DBH gt 200mm s ha tem gt par n A PS FRAPS Apr IES aio FSB PS Ba PSB IES 176 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 143 Report Options Forecaster v2 0 with FFR Forecaster Silvicultural Details Report Thinning Stand Table lt 5 lt o amp ied 2 v oO o 300 jee 280 4 260 240 120 140 160 180 200 220 DBH mm at age 8 3 100 ey suiaqzs Buppoys Thinning Stand Table at vot PO ee i i i i S S N SS eee f f f if f ey sw 4s Buoys
77. Teh AE Se hb 196 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited zs Forecaster v2 0 Introduction Introduction Welcome to Forecaster v2 0 Forecaster is a system for predicting the growth of forest stands and their potential log yield Forest managers need to make projections of the timing quality and quantity of log yields from a stand These projections form the basis for operational scheduling regime analysis cost benefit analyses of alternative stand management practices and yield table generation Projections need to be best practice and capable of standing up to rigorous internal and external audit eg for valuation and certification Forecaster can be used to schedule silvicultural operations such as pruning and thinning and is especially useful for scheduling intensively pruned regimes for radiata pine The major function provided by Forecaster is stand growth and yield modeling simulating the effects of genetics site and management on the timing volume and properties of log product yields from a stand This function can be used to compare regimes and so determine the most appropriate regime in a specific situation How Forecaster Works Forecaster uses a stem list as a model of a crop of trees growing on a site Each stem in the list has the attributes necessary to support the detail required when predicting yield such as DBHOB height pruned height etc Each stem also has a weighting which indicates the number
78. UP Rimu DYSPE Kohekohe ELDEN Hinau EUBOT PE RE Botanical Name Description cad Acacia dealbata Acacia melanoxylon Acacia mearnsii Acer pseudoplatanus Agathis australis Alnus glutinosa Cupressocyparis ley Cupressocyparis Cupressocyparis Cedrus deodara Chamaecyparis lawsoniana Cryptomeria japonica Castanea sativa Cupressus arizonica Cupressus lusitanica Cupressus macrocarpa Cupressus mixture Catalpa speciosa Dacrydium colensoi Dacrydium cupressinum Dysoxylum spectabile Elaeocarpus dentatus Eucalyptus botryoides v Ada X Delete Cancel Help Note that the list can be sorted on any column by clicking on that column s header Adding a Species to the Master Species List Follow these steps to add a species to the Master Species List Action Key Point Open the Master Species List Add new species as required Select the Species List option on the Tools menu Click Add and complete all fields Note Once added a species entry can be edited but not deleted For this reason it is important to double check that the species is not already in the list Update the list Click Ok 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Sites Sites This section describes the setting up of sites for a project There are two methods that can be used to specify site locations e Direct entry of site data e Selection of the site from a map See Spatial
79. Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 141 Forecaster v2 0 Report Options Available Standard Reports At the end of a simulation a number of standard reports are available in PDF format via the Report Manager Reports menu e Silvicultural Details Report e Log Yield Report e Economics Analysis Report The reports are only available if the appropriate tables have been selected in the Report Options entity associated with the simulated project 142 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Report Options Silvicultural Details Report This PDF report summarises pruning and thinning events Under the pruning section reported information includes a summary of the scheduling prescription and metrics relating to each pruning event up to 4 lifts as well as charts of DOS distribution and pruned height distribution Under the thinning section relevant metrics relating to pre thin post thin and the removed element are presented for up to 4 thinning events as well as charts of DBH distributions pre and post thinning and stocking through time The charts included in this report are also available via the Charts menu option in the Report Manager This report will only be available if both the Pruning and the Thinning Details Tables have been selected in the Report Options entity associated with the simulated project Silvicultural Details Report tl FFR Forecaster Silvicultural Details Report
80. a Regime is appropriate for a particular simulation A Condition must evaluate to true for the Command s Event s to be executed see below As a simulation proceeds the stand is grown forward in monthly steps At each step the Condition of the next Command in the Regime is evaluated and if it evaluates to true then all the Events in that Command are executed in order Supported Events include e Plant e Measurement e Prune e Thin either Waste Thin or Production Thin e Clearfell a Clearfell event includes one or more Cutting Strategies and will automatically create an age range Condition whose ages are determined by the species in the Plant Event i 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited To Forecaster v2 0 Regimes Field Button Function e Stop a Stop event is required to end the simulation without a Stop event the simulation will proceed until the oldest age allowed by the growth model Note Selecting an event displays a popup that requires data to be entered or selected from a list Editing Conditions To create a new condition either click on the lt Click to Create New Condition gt cell in the last row of the grid or double click an empty cell To edit an existing condition double click the cell containing the condition When not in advanced mode conditions are entered by 1 Selecting the variable to be scheduled from a drop down list 2 Selecting where appropriate the ope
81. ach 5 5 metre height class along the stem piece To do this an SED adjustment factor is applied to the crop BIX previously calculated using the SED of the stem s height class The function used for this adjustment has the form BIXI cO c1 SEDi CSEDi CBIXi where BIXi Branch index BIX for this stem piece at height class i SEDi Small end diameter SED of the stem piece for height class i CSEDi mean SED of the crop for height class i CBIXi BIX for log height class i for this crop c0 c1 Coefficients which differ between the three models Where the end of the height class extends beyond the top of the stem piece the SED ratio term is dropped since leaving this in tends to over predict BIX The BIX calculated here is at the stem piece level When a log is cut from this stem piece a volume weighted average BIX value is calculated for the log based on the BIX values of the height classes it spans and the proportion of its volume made up by each of those height classes Constraining Log Product Definitions on BIX Model Output Where a log product definition is constrained using maximum branch size as calculated by a BIX model then the BIX of a candidate log is converted to maximum branch size by using a function of the form MAXBR BIX dO d1 When bucking a stem piece into a log and the log specification indicates that it is using BIX branch modelling and has a maximum branch size constraint set the maximum branch derived f
82. ain sections of the interface are described below Section Function Menu Bar Drop down menus containing more advanced options Tool Bar Buttons for performing common operations Tree View Shows the hierarchical structure of folders for Projects and for each of the Pane eight component entities in Forecaster s Entities database List View Pane Lists the contents of the group folder selected in the Tree View Pane The list can be sorted on any column by clicking on that column s header 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Section Introduction Function Details Pane Lists details of the entity selected in the List View Pane Projects A Project is a collection of component entities crops sites etc that are to be analysed Note that a Project does not actually contain its component entities but just refers to them so that the entities can be re used in any number of other projects Sites A Site specifies the location of the crop with respect to altitude and map coordinates Crops A Crop defines the characteristics of the trees for which growth is to be simulated Function Sets A Function Set defines the models and functions that will be used to simulate the growth of the Crop on a Site Species Sets Species Sets are collections of one or more species and are used when constructing Function Sets and Log Product Definitions Regimes
83. ain spaces then they must surrounded by double quotes 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 191 Forecaster v2 0 Software Overview and Installation Overview Forecaster is a framework which supports different growth and yield models plus other mensurational functions which are used in concert to simulate the effects of genetics site and management on the growth of a stand as well as the timing volume and properties of its log product yields Forecaster is a multi user system for use in enterprises where it is essential to share common definitions of entities like log product grade definitions regimes etc This provides consistency and promotes a common understanding between parts of a forestry business which can tend to become silos of information when under pressure to perform Users must concur on naming conventions and areas of responsibility for the benefits of a shared system to be realised As a single user system Forecaster can be installed on one PC with no difference in the functionality or interface Forecaster will function correctly only if installed on an adequate system See Installing Uninstalling Forecaster for a list of minimum requirements System Components The system has two main interfaces a Graphical User Interface based on Windows and Forms and a command line interface for processing batches of stands Both of these interfaces use the Forecaster simulation engine to process the input i
84. and line For each selected table output can be written to either a CSV file or an Excel file if the latter the worksheet name can be specified The tables cannot yet be written to a database and standard reports are not yet available in batch mode Standard Reports Standard Charts Report Tables Batch Mode Output Table Name Destination Type File Name Table Name AnnualCropCondition AnnualCropCondition EXCEL C Temp ForecasterResults Table Name LogSummary LogSummary EXCEL C Temp ForecasterResults Table Name LogTrace LogTrace DATABASE C Temp ForecasterLogT race Table Name LogYield Table Name MonthlyCropCondition Table Name PruningDetail Table Name PSPPlot Table Name PSPStem Table Name ScenarioDetail Table Name StemListDetail Table Name StockingDistribution f f d 2 Edit X Delete Worksheet Name a AnnualCondition LogSummary Field Button Function Add button Adds a blank line which can then be edited Edit button Displays the Report Channel Destination Form for the selected Table also accessible by double clicking in the white line for the Table a Report Channel Destination LogSummary casat Name Description Destination Type EXCEL File Name C Temp ForecasterResults w Worksheet Name fLogSummary Cancel Apply Help Complete the fields and click Ok Delete button Deletes the Destination information for
85. and summary statistics Note that the stem list should be representative of the entire population you wish to model If silviculture QC data is normally only collected for the crop element of a stand and the data is to be used to initialise a Forecaster simulation then it is worth considering measurement of a small number of followers so that a meaningful stem list can be formed For instance if 6 pruned stems are normally measured per pruning QC plot then 1 follower could also be measured Stem weightings need to reflect the relative stockings of both the crop and follower elements Whole Stand Stem List Name Species DBH mm Height m Weighting ste Crop Stem Pruned Ht m IL 2 P RAD 90 9 37 50 000 0 00 _Preview Stem List 12 P RAD 117 11 09 50 000 0 00 14 P RAD 118 11 14 50 000 0 00 18 P RAD 127 11 59 50 000 0 00 11 P RAD 128 11 64 50 000 0 00 13 P RAD 134 11 91 50 000 0 00 17 P RAD 143 12 28 50 000 0 00 5 P RAD 154 12 67 50 000 0 00 lt Note Each stem must have a name typically a number species DBH and weighting the number of stems ha which this stem represents In addition some stems must also have heights recorded The following table describes the fields and buttons in the Stem List tab Field Button Function Name Stem number or ID Species Species name e g P RAD DBH_mm Over bark diameter at breast height in mm Height_m Measured height of the stem in m Not that this value ca
86. arios is shown below Forecaster Project Forecaster Demo 1 One project Forecaster Demo 1 Description Report Options Demo1 m List of Combinations Site Crop Function Set Regime P ASites BoP High NCrops Radiata Grid Function Sets Central North Island SHlegimes Clearwood Sites BoP High Crops Radiata GF18 Function Sets Central_North_Island Regimes Clearwood Sites BoP Medium Crops Radiata GF14 Function Sets Central_North_Island Regimes Clearwood __ Sites BoP Medium Crops Radiata GF18 Function Sets CentralNorth_Island Regimes Clearwood with four combinations o Add gt Delete Copy Initialise Report Manager DER Fie Reports Graphs Export Options Jag a column header here to group by that column Project Simulation Clearfell Cutting Strategy E T Projec 0 1 t oP Hic il 0 t 4 1 3 j ting Projec 29 06 2010 Sites BoP High Crops Radiat im Function S i 31 07 20 Cutting Strategies Projec 29 06 2010 Sites BoP High Crops Radiata GF18 im Function 5 Age gt 25 25 31 07 20 Cutting Strategies Projec 29 06 2010 Sites BoP High Crops Radiata GF18 im Function S Age gt 30 30 31 07 20 Cutting Strategies Projec 29 06 2010 Sites BoP Medium Crops Radiata GF14 im Function 5 Age gt 25 25 31 07 20 Cutting Strategies Projec 29 06 2010 Sites BoP Medium Crops Radiata GF14 im F
87. at can be cut from a stem must also be specified in the Max Stem field For example for the following values Log Type Priority Max Stem Pruned 1 1 Sawlog 2 3 pup 3 9 the Priority List bucker would try to first cut one Pruned log from the stem then up to three Sawlogs then as many Pulp logs up to 99 as it can Order These buttons change the order of the selected log product as Order displayed in reports For Priority List These buttons change the priority of the selected log product This bucking sets the order in which the bucker tries to cut each log product from Priority a stem see Bucking Mode above Priority y Standard Cutting Strategies Some standard cutting strategies are available based on the standard New Zealand based Log Product Definitions 136 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Cutting Strategies Creating a New Cutting Strategy Action Key Point Check for Log Product Definitions Have the required Log Product Definitions been created yet If not refer to Log Product Definitions Create a new Cutting Strategy e In the Tree View Pane select the folder under the Cutting Strategies sub tree in which the new Cutting Strategy is to be created e Select New from the File menu or main toolbar or right click in the List View Pane and select New from the context menu This creates a new Cutting Strategy and opens
88. ation simply as being in either the North Island or the South Island For North Island sites the model will only predict a value for stems with 19 lt age lt 37 and for levels below 25m For South Island sites the model will only predict a value for stems with 24 lt age lt 45 and for levels below 20m The FFRWQI2009 model will only predict values for stems of age gt 10 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Carbon Model Introduction Carbon sequestration in plantations can be predicted over a particular period of time from stand measurements and models One approach is to estimate allocation of biomass across various pools using the C change model 2 This model has been implemented into Forecaster from the Excel VBA version 28 To run the C change model within Forecaster the model must be selected in the Carbon Models field of the FunctionSet As wood density is a key input when calculating carbon yield C_change requires density to be modelled While log density may be modelled using one of several log density models density for carbon is most appropriately modelled using a sheath based approach Consequently the mandatory density model to be used in conjunction with C_change is the PRADSheathDensity model 31 which is selected automatically on selection of C_change this model is used for all species other than Douglas fir for which the Douglas fir sheath density mode
89. ave an offset specified General Revenues It is also possible to specify other revenues that might be generated such as firewood sales For each the age s at which the revenue is to be applied must be specified Harvesting Revenues 164 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 These are not specified in the Economic Settings but are automatically generated whenever a Production Thinning or Clearfell occurs The revenues S ha are derived from the harvested log products volumes m ha and their associated prices m from the relevant Cutting Strategy Note that the Economic Analysis requires each scenario to include a Clearfell event 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 165 Forecaster v2 0 The Economic Analysis Process The Analysis Process To enable an economic analysis the EconomicAnalysis table should be checked on the Report Tables tab of the simulation s Report Options and an Economics Settings entity must be selected in the Project form The analysis will calculate the following summarising values for each scenario and they will appear in both the Economic Analysis table and the Economic Analysis report Net Present Value For each combination of variations analysed a Net Present Value NPV is calculated as the sum of all discounted costs and discounted revenues Internal Rate of Return The analysis includes the calculation of an Internal Rate
90. bles including number of pruning lifts pruned height DBH height and DBHxHeight The variability of the order can range from strict 0 to fully random order 9 The effects of different ordering variability are illustrated in the Pruning Selection Examples that follow this topic Thinning Coeffici 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 113 Forecaster v2 0 Regimes To assist users in easily determining whether a simulated thinning event with a particular stem ordering and randomness setting is realistic or not for each thinning event Forecaster provides a Thinning Coefficient which is is displayed in the Message Viewer that appears at the end of the simulation The Thinning Coefficient is defined as the proportion of basal area relative to stocking that remains following a thinning thus as the coefficient increases more of the larger stems are thinned out Analysis of historical radiata pine PSP data in New Zealand suggests the following average values pers comm Mark Kimberley e 0 784 for waste thinning e 0 823 for production thinning e 0 56 is equivalent to natural mortality 114 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Regimes Stem Selection Examples These examples illustrate the effect of different stem ordering variability on the selection of stems for pruning or thinning The stem selection criteria is overruled if the Is_ Crop Stem variable is set to TRUE for an
91. can be previewed via the Stem List Chart This is a summary report showing the distributions of height and DBH their range and the relationship between them 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Crops Stem Height and DBH Distributions Crop New Crop Stocking 807 s ha Basal Area 10 01 m2 ha Mean Top Height 8 01 m MaxDBH 180 mm Stem CVs BA 37 Height 16 Height DBH 12 Plant Date 06 2000 Measurement Date 06 2005 StemList Height Class Stocking stems ha 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Height and Prune Height m ey swa3s ul2035 sse H90 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 DBH mm Forecaster 1 10 0 807 2 08 2011 1 06 p m Stem List Chart CropTwoThinTwoPruneJuly2008 an Stem Height and DBH Distributions Crop CropTwoThinTwoPruneJuly2008 Stocking 400 s ha Basal Area 8 80 m2 ha Mean Top Height 12 1 m MaxDBH 180 mm Stem CVs BA 11 Height 6 Height DBH 3 Plant Date 07 2000 Measurement Date 07 2008 Stemlist Height Class Stocking stems ha 0 10 20 30 40 SO 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 Height and Prune Height m ey suiays Buppoys 55813 HAG or NW eM HAN O 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 DBH mm Forecaster 1 9 0 710 23 03 2011 9 54 a m 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Crops All stems in the
92. cannot be specified designation is v when Is_Crop_Stem intended as the attribute is present on definitive factor in stemlist selecting stems Error Pruned stocking Is_Crop_Stem cannot be specified designation is v when Is_Crop_ Stem intended as the attribute is present on definitive factor in stemlist selecting stems Error Pruned i of crop stems is percentage cannot be x meaningless as crop entered as crop stems stems are unknown are unknown This is the current basic behaviour N stems will be Followers might be pruned pruned at the expense of stems pruned in prior lifts Error Pruned of crop stems is percentage cannot be x meaningless as crop entered as crop stems stems are unknown are unknown 1 Some stems have the Is_Crop_Stem attribute set to TRUE on the crop s stemlist 2 Prune N stems ha is specified on the Prune Event form 3 Re Prune at least X of crop stems is specified on the Prune Event form 122 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Regimes 4 Behavior is to ignore the pruned stocking and prune those stems where Is_Crop_Stem TRUE 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 123 Forecaster v2 0 For subsequent pruning events Regimes In this case at least one pruned event has already occurred either in the crop s history or during simulation through the regime Crop stems can always be identified they were pruned
93. configuration settings A Species Set may contain just one species or it may contain multiple species A Species Set with multiple species can be useful when e crops being simulated contain stems of more than one species relevant only for crops defined at the stem list information level and e all of those species may be modelled using the same basic functions including the selected Growth Model In this way Species Sets can be used to cluster together species which have similar mensurational characteristics for example stringy bark eucalypts In this section This section contains the following topics Creating a Species Set 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Species Sets Creating a Species Set The Species Set form Forecaster Species Set New Species Set Name Radiata Pine Available Species Name AADLB AAMEL AAMNI ACPSE AGAUS ANGLU CCLEY CCLHG CCLLG CEDEO CHLAW CRJAP CTSAT CUARZ CULUS CUMAC Full Name Silver wattle Blackwood Black wattle Sycamore Kauri Black alder Leyland cypress Haggleston Grey cypress Naylors Blue cypress Deodar Lawson cypress Japanese cedar Spanish chestnut Arizona cypress Mexican cypress Macrocarpa PS Eek Description a Add Remove Botanical Name Acacia dealbata Acacia melanoxylon E Acacia mearnsii Acer pseudoplatanus Agathis australis Alnus glutinosa Cupressocyparis ley ii Cupress
94. created the New Crop form is displayed amp Forecaster Crop New Crop IDa cae ele nese Name REMR r Description Planted Year 0 Month June Stocking o stems ha Species P RAD has Measured Year 0 Month June v Whole Stand Stocking 0 stems ha f Whole Stand Stem List Quadratic Mean DBH 0 mm Generate Start Age Crop Basal Area ha 0 m2 ha Sa Stem Basal Area CV 0 Mean Top Height om Stem DBH Max 0 mm Stem Height DBH CV 10 L Properties Crop History 300 Index Calculator ox cancel apy Hep The following table describes the fields and buttons in the Crop form and their usage Field Button Function Name Description A crop must have a name A description is useful so that users can quickly decide whether a pre defined crop is appropriate for a particular simulation Planted Information at planting is required including e year e month e planted stocking and e species selected from the species list Measured Information at the start date for the simulation is then entered including e year and month of the measurement and e whole stand stocking at the time of the measurement Whole Stand tab This allows mean stand parameters to be entered as in STANDPAK Estimates of variance for both BA and height are also required 38 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Field Button Crops Function
95. d has been converted from pasture or scrub the carbon value is presumed to start at zero whereas for any subsequent rotation where the land is is continuous forestry cover the initial carbon value is significantly higher owing to the residue from the previous rotation Carbon sequestration curves for two subsequent rotations Carbon sequestered t C N vn o Age Rotation 1 Rotation 2 At a clearfell regardless of the rotation the net carbon volume removed and thus treated as a cost is the difference between the carbon sequestered pre clearfell and the initial carbon value for the start of the next rotation Note that the amount of material removed during either a clearfell or a production thinning are set as parameters to the Carbon model see C Change Parameters Sensitivity Analysis It is possible to vary a number of the base settings to determine the manner in which the overall economic outcome is affected The settings that can be changed in this way are those labelled as variations in the Sensitivity Analysis box Leaving the value of any variation at zero means that no variation will be applied for that setting but entering a value will cause the data to be analysed with that setting at 3 different values e The original value e The original value plus the specified variation e The original value minus the specified variation For example if the Base Discount Rate is set at 5 5 and the Base Discount
96. del via the functionSet maintenance form Crop specific values can be entered as crop properties via the crop maintenance form and they will override any default model settings If density values are required but no measured value is supplied the model will use a density index value from the density index surface appropriate for the selected site r 4 Stiffness Model Properties WQIAcousticVelocity Posies 24 4 Measurement Level ESTES Sio velo stand density m 4 Stand Acoustic Velocity Measurement Stand average Acoustic Velocity Age Stand average Acoustic Velocity FAKOPP Measurement Stand average Acoustic Velocity IML Measurement Stand average Acoustic Velocity 5T300 pre 2007 Measurement Stand average Acoustic Velocity ST300 Measurement 4 Stand Density Value OWBHD from surface kg m3 Age years OWBHD measurement kg m3 Age years Measurement Level Level of available measured data listed in decreasing order of modelling accuracy 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Model Properties for the WQIAcousticVelocity Stiffness Model Property Description Measurement Level The model predicts acoustic velocity using one of several equations determined by the level and type of measured data available The levels of measurement data that are currently supported listed here in decreasing order of modelling accuracy are
97. diameters of the leaders are determined by assuming that the diameters of branches in a cluster are related by D Dracat where n is branch rank such that D1 is the size of the largest branch in mm The value of a used is 0 128 Given this assumption and the number of leaders the diameter of the largest can be calculated by requiring the sum of the squared leader diameters to equal the stem diameter at the point of forking This requirement conserves sectional area and is consistent with the pipe model of stem diameter development 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Stiffness Models Stiffness Models Implemented The currently available stiffness models are WQIAcousticVelocity which predicts stiffness in values of acoustic velocity 22 e FFRMOE which predicts stiffness in values of modulus of elasticity MOE 23 None used when no modelling of stiffness is required Requirements The WQIAcousticVelocity model uses stand average measurements of density and or standing tree velocity The velocity measurements can be made with any one of a ST300 an IMLora FAKOPP instrument For the ST300 the distinction between those models calibrated prior to 2007 and later models is made by specifying them as different instruments Default model level values for stand average measurements along with their age of measurement can be entered as properties to the acoustic velocity mo
98. display the New Regime form e Enter a Name and Description for the Regime Note that if any Clearfell or Production Thin Events are to be included in the Regime then first ensure that any required Cutting Strategies and their Log Product Definitions have been defined Select Add Command to display the New Condition form See the Conditions section for details Right click on the Event field select Add and select the required Event type from the dropdown list For example for a Pruning Event 0 Prune Event IV Specify ReJPrune Stocking Prune 360 stems ha Stem Selection I Specify Re Prune Percentage Where at least are crop stems Order Stems By Largest DBH x Height Stem Ordering Strict Order i i i a ao a ag A g G Random Order Pruning Strategy Height Pruning Constraints Name Maximum Pruned Height m Minimum Green Crown Remainina m Minimum Lift Lenath m Ok Cancel Apply Help e Set the target pruned stocking stem ordering and randomness see Pruning topic in this section Nominate the Pruning Strategy Height Percentage of Stem or Caliper e Select the Event s Properties in this case prune to 2 4m with no limit on Green Crown Remaining or Minimum Lift Length e Click on the OK button 110 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Regimes Step Action Key Points Add further Ev
99. e 220 masi Basal Area 5 0 m2 ha 300 Index 27 3 m3 ha year Mean Top Height 7 81 m Site Index 30 354 m _ _Select _ ea Ca Clicking the OK or Enter will copy the values both entered and calculated back into the Crop form If there are any prunings or thinnings specified then these will be added to the crop history overwriting any existing historical events present These events will also need to be entered for any Regime used with this Crop Clicking the Cancel or Esc will discard any changes made in this form and return to the Crop form Calculating the Residual Stocking of a Thinning This can be used to calculate the residual stocking of a thinning given the thinning age plant stocking measurement and site information For example in the following form the Calculate button has been clicked after entering the required information Residual Stocking Thinning uft ge Pruned Stocking Pruned Height years stems na Type 1 5 years stems ha m 5 300 2 Measurements Site Age 6 gt years Latitude 33 40 degrees South Stocking 40 gt stems ha Altitude 220 masi Basal Area 5 0 m2 ha 300 Index 25 9 m3 ha year Mean Top Height 7 8 m Site Index 30 34 m fermen Select ox cance This prediction can only be made with one thinning or the final thinning in a series 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Calculating Pruning a
100. e Stand Stem List Quadratic Mean DBH 0 mm Generate Start Age Crop Basal Area ha 0 m2ha l Convert to Stem List Stem Basal Area CV 0 Mean Top Height om Stem DBH Max 0 mm Stem Height DBH CV 10 The following table describes the fields and buttons in the Whole Stand tab Field Button Function Basal Area ha m ha Over bark area of stump per hectare if each tree was felled at breast height above ground Stem Basal Area CV Coefficient of variation is the measure of dispersion of the distribution of stem basal area CV Standard deviation mean Mean Top Height m The average height in meters of the stem of quadratic mean DBH of the largest diameter DBH 100 stems per hectare The DBH of the largest stem within the stand The coefficient of variation is a measure of dispersion of the distribution of stem height CV Standard deviation mean Generate Start Age Crop Allows a starting crop to be generated see below Convert to Stem List Produces a matching stem list see below Generating a Starting Point Crop A radiata pine crop can be generated as a starting point for a simulation by clicking the Generate Start Age Crop button This uses site productivity the 300 Index growth model and planted stocking to derive a crop at a young age the actual age will differ depending on the productivity of the site as a height age model 189 is used to determine when 5m MTH is reached The algo
101. e Thin topicin this section Clearfell Event SS Ga Ge A Clearfell Event must specify at least one Cutting Strategy to be applied to the felled stems Clicking the Add button displays the Select Cutting Strategy form allowing nor or more Cutting Strategy to be defined 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 107 Forecaster v2 0 Clearfell Event PB Bek Cutting Strategy Description Add XK Remove Cancel Help Select Cutting Stragegy t Cutting Strategies 2 Default Domestic ff Default Dom Fa Default Dom Density DemoData Lf Demo Strategy BH IFS Demos off BIX criteria F Branch criteria Cancel Help Regimes 108 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Regimes The selected Cutting Strategy is added to the Clearfell Event list Clearfell Event oa DER Cutting Strategy Description Default Dom Default domestic strategy 7 grades 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 109 Forecaster v2 0 Creating a New Regime Regimes Follow these steps to create a new Regime Action Key Point Create a new Regime Adda Command Specify the Command s Condition s Add an Event Enter the Event s details e Select the required Regime folder in the Tree View Pane e Right click in the List View Pane e Select New from the context menu to
102. e charts linked below show the stem list plotted as stem height over DBH 360 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 115 Forecaster v2 0 Regimes stems per hectare are selected from 850 ordered from the largest DBHxHeight The selected and unselected are identified as two series Note that the selection is the result of both the ordering and the pruning strategy because even though a stem appears first in the list it will only be selected if it meets the crown remaining and minimum lift constraints Stem Selection for Pruning Strict Ordering 0 Height m In an ideal stand evenly spaced straight stems of equal vigour the final crop should be selected from the largest tallest stems This can be modelled in Forecaster by ordering the stems from the largest DBHxHeight with strict ordering 116 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Regimes With slight ordering variability some large stems are not selected and a few small stems have been selected Increasing the variability further results in a mix of selected unselected stems of average height and DBH 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 117 Forecaster v2 0 Regimes In a patchy stand with uneven establishment and considerable malformation the pruning selection can be modelled by applying random ordering 9 With fully random ordering there is no relationship betwe
103. e menu Tools Report Manager Report Manager will open displaying all scenarios which have been saved to the reports database The more scenarios saved to the reports database the longer it will take for the Report Manager to open When run in this mode the Report Manager will allow selected scenarios to be deleted Report Manager Example In this example a Project has been run giving four scenarios All four scenarios have been selected using the check boxes on the left A number of standard graphs and reports are available from the Graphs menu or by right click on a selected scenario In this example the user has selected a chart showing Stand Volume by age for the four scenarios Report Manager E ook Fie Reports Meese Export Options Prune Height Log Yield Graph Project Dos Devenpmen Crop Regime Function Set Clearfell Trigger ClearfellAge Clearfell Date Cutting Strategy Project te paapa i Crops Fore Regimes Dem Function Sets Re Age gt 25years 25 03 31 07 202612 Cutting Strateg Project p Crops Fore Regimes Dem Function Sets Re Age gt 30 years 30 03 31 07 2031 12 Cutting Strateg M Projec DET Stocking stems per ha Function Sets Re Age gt 25 years 25 03 31207 2026 12 Cutting Strateg RRG Final DOS Development Mean Top Height Function Sets Re 3 31 07 2031 12 q Strateg Mean Height Basal Area Mean Top DBH Mean EE Increment Q Mean DBH Mean Top DOS Relative Spacing Mea
104. e red line in the form below are specified separately for each Species Set a 4 Forecaster Function Set Central_North_Island aoas Name Central_North_Island Description Default function set for Central_NorthIslandregion Growth Growth Model GM300Index m Properties Height Age Table 112 asam Monthly Adjustment 2 a DOS Function D051999 mans Stem Form Sweep Model Generic asaan Properties Forking Model Generic asan Carbon Sequestration Harvesting r Carbon Model C_Change aisn Properties Stump Height 0 3 m Hide Species Models applying to all species in the crop Radiata psmen sosem Models applying to specific species in the crop Species Set Radiata Stem Shape Zar prota Tree Volume Table 460 Branch Model Blossim3 m Tree Taper Table 450 om BIX Model KnowlesKimberley1997 m Properties Breakage Table 17 aam Wood Property Models Stiffness WQlAcousticVelocty Microfibril Angle Density FFRDensity2011 Heartwood FFR2008 Spiral Grain Angle Note For most projects there is a 1 1 relationship between the crop based models and the species based model 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Field function Function Sets The following table describes the fields and buttons in the Function Set form Field Button Function Name A name for the Function Set the name must be unique within
105. e the out of the box values that a new installation of Forecaster will use by default e System these can be used to over ride the Default settings for all users of a shared database e User these can be used to over ride the System settings on a per user basis For example the default setting for the reporting output folder is C as this path is likely to be available on any installation In a shared installation the system setting could be changed to a backed up network location but an individual user could over ride this so that their reports are written to for example D Forecaster Reports The form used for editing the settings includes a panel containing a description of the selected setting fn amp Forecaster Options User dementb System Default 4 General DefaultGFRating DefaultSpecies P RAD MPKSystemModelsFileName MPKUserModelsFileName SpatialSurfaceSampleArea 4 Mensuration BreastHeight 14 NumberOfTopStems 100 4 Reporting OutputFolder c 4 Simulation MaximumPruningAge 12 0 MinimumExtractableDiameter MinimumExtractableLength RandomSeed 19327 StandArea 0 2 StumpHeight 0 23 SafeStemVolumeCalculation When safe modeis On all stem volume calculations are performed on a stem within the range of the equations data If the target stem is smaller than the minimum stem then the results are scaled down to apply to the target stem See Help Volume and Taper Equations for more deta
106. e used to compare results across different scenarios to view more than one scenario on the same chart select each of the scenarios in Report Manager before selecting the graph type The following example compares the Basal Area growth of two sites Basal Area e S BoP High e S BoP Medium an oO wn Basal Area m3 per ha a Y Y U U S o 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Age years StemPiece Details Chart Refer to StemPiece Details Chart topic later in this section 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 153 Forecaster v2 0 Report Options Available Report Tables The following report tables can be exported in Excel or CSV formats Category Table Detail Level Crop and Event Stem List Detail Stem Details Annual Crop Condition Stand Monthly Crop Condition Stand Silvicultural Detail Stand Thinning Detail Stand Stocking Distribution Stand Log Product Details Log Trace Log Log Yield Stand Log Summary Stand Yield Table Stand Scenario Details Scenario Detail Scenario Economic Analysis Economic Analysis Stand An example report table follows Annual Crop Condition This table is intended to provide information about the growing stock stocking BA volume height measures DBH DOS crown length One record is written after every event and annually during a simulation This is a summary of the stem information in the Stem List Detail table By convention fields that are
107. each constraint Once all values have been entered click OK to accept The system will warn you of any mandatory fields that have been left blank or any other inconsistencies Constraint Information Tab Heading Dimensional Description Dimensional Shape Branching Wood Property Indicators Small End Diameter Under Bark SED Minimum 300 mm Maximum 800 mm Large End Diameter Under Bark LED Maximum 800 mm Default Price 90 Lengths Minimum Length Maximum Length Fixed Length 4 9 4 9 v 74 74 v Trim Allowance osm Species Set Species Set Radiata The Dimensional tab see picture above is used to specify the minimum and maximum small end diameter SED and maximum large end diameter LED for the log grade along with a default price and allowable lengths To enter a new log Length click Add Entered lengths can be revised or deleted using Edit and Remove buttons A Trim Allowance may be entered specified to the nearest centimetre The bucking process will cut logs using gross lengths a specified log length plus the trim allowance but will use and report values calculated from the logs net specified lengths A Default Price must be entered and the form requires the allowable species to be defined by selection of an appropriate Species set 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 131 F
108. eacha m2ha Mean Annual Increment m3 ha ann z E T E 2 000 1 000 2 1 500 2 gt 2 000 50 amp E ia S500 3 s ae Ba 5 0 5 g aes 5 40 40 B20 20 30 i i to g c 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 Age years Site Index 31 1m 300 Index 30 1m3 ha yr Yield Table tab This tab shows the table of yield data produced by the simulation Crop Condition Condition Graph Yield Table CuttingStrategy YearsOld Month Pulp L2 P1 1 L1 27 Jo 210441456 75 707256 113 383287 151 858901 161 474602 69 0243038 29 0315217 Cutting Strategie 28 213 125036 28 224197 68 361919 115 016130 155 593566 173 256070 75 2512403 35 0791120 Cutting Strategie 29 209 846832 28 043173 80 920996 117 171370 164 423841 183 602162 77 8881712 44 3988763 Cutting Strategie 30 216 025020 28 220788 60 903475 114 823212 156 371750 185 010320 80 7205277 65 0911800 Cutting Strategie 31 208 710703 28 329878 57 055278 114 974810 187 032589 191 357887 85 8840486 73 2491564 Cutting Strategie 32 208 357333 26 993116 54 296047 4 13 937290 167 571451 196 652395 91 1417720 85 9135147 Cutting Strategie 33 209 745959 25 951045 55 303016 120 521851 161 835058 199 924575
109. ealand Tel 64 7 921 7256 Fax 64 7 921 1020 Mob 64 21 921575 keith mackie wgi co nz 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 101 Forecaster v2 0 Regimes Regimes Regimes are used to specify the timing and sequence of silvicultural events that are applied to a Crop Regimes comprise a series of Commands where each Command has two parts e A Condition this defines when to carry out an event A condition may consist of multiple conditions all of which must be met simultaneously for the condition to be met and the associated Events to be carried out e One or more Events these define which stems will be treated and what will be done to them Several Clearfell events may be included in a regime each of which can have more than one cutting strategy associated with it In this way the regime can represent many scenarios see Understanding Projects as in reality the crop can only be clearfelled at one age using one Cutting Strategy Condition s Event s Command 1 MeanDOS gt 180mm 1 Prune 450 stems ha to 3m 2 Thin to 500 stems ha Command 2 1 MTH lt 20m Production Thin to 400 stems ha 2 BA gt 25m2 ha using Cutting Strategy PT2010 Note 1 Before Clearfell or Production Thinning Events can be defined in a Regime a Cutting Strategy and associated Log Product Definitions must first be defined see Cutting Strategies and Creating Log Product Definitions Note 2 In STANDPAK Reg
110. ed Forecaster v2 0 Conditions Conditions Overview A logical expression is an expression that can be evaluated to either True or False It usually has the form variable comparison_operator value but can also include arithmetic expressions For example Site Altitude lt 300 Date Sep 2010 Crop BasalArea lt Event PreCrop BasalArea 0 2 A Condition combines one or more logical expressions using the logical operators AND OR and parentheses and to produce a more complex expression which can itself be evaluated to either True or False For example Crop Age gt 25 AND Site GrowthModellingRegion Southland Event Type WasteThin AND Crop BasalArea lt 4 5 Note The same syntax is used to define the Conditions used within Practical Advice entities as for those used in each Command within a Regime This syntax is also used when specifying the timing of historic events in a Crop s history however in those cases only Date or Crop Age variables can be used 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 175 Forecaster v2 0 Conditions Editing Conditions The Condition form appears when adding or editing conditions of user defined Practical Advice Edit Condition 176 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Conditions The following table describes the functions of the fields and buttons in the Condition form Field Button Function To
111. ed to and from folders and they can be renamed deleted created updated and imported and exported via CSV files Initially the master Practical Advice folder will contain a System folder and a User defined folder The System folder contains pre defined Practical Advice entities This folder and the entities within it are read only and cannot be changed The User Defined folder will initially be empty It is recommended that new Practical Advice entities are created in this folder Each Practical Advice entity consists of the following Feature Function A name identifying the entity this must be unique within the containing group A single line description of the Practical Advice This description will appear in the Message Viewer at the completion of a simulation if the relevant conditions are met An expression which defines when the advice is displayed to the user The advice will only be displayed in the Message Viewer if this condition has evaluated to true during the simulation An optional HTML or HTM file containing the advice content and possibly some associated image files AttachmentsjAn optional list of files related to the Practical Advice Condition Tab The Condition tab is used to enter an expression which is evaluated every month during a simulation If the Condition evaluates to True at any time during the simulation then that Practical Advice item will be displayed in the Message Viewer A sim
112. eep shape Region Type Probabilities An impression of the results of a given set of parameters in a specific function set can be obtained by using the stem piece viewer on the results of a simulation The viewer produces a diagram of each stem piece butt or leader showing the shape size branches and logs See Stem Piece Details Chart for further information on Stem Piece Viewer 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available The same five default shape types assessed in an ATLAS Cruiser pre harvest assessment are modelled in Forecaster e Normal Sweep Bend e Hockey Stick e Leader Replacement e Wobble Modelling unswept stands To model all stems without sweep click on sweep model Properties in the function set and set the RegionCountProbabilities to 1 so that all stems will have no sweep regions Sweep Model Properties form Sweep Model Properties Generic A Z B Model RegionCountProbabilities 0 4 0 1 0 3 0 2 RegionD eviationDistribution 0 5 0 4 RegionLengthDistribution 4 0 2 0 RegionT ppeProbabilities 0 3 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 1 RegionCountProbab ties The probabilities of the number of sweep regions per stem must sum to 1 0 e g for 0 5 0 2 0 3 50 of stems will have no sweep 20 will have 1 sweep region and 30 will have 2 Cancel Apply Help 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models A
113. eight of 27 000m Diameter is zero by definition Regression fit failed tying an asymptotic fit Dbh value out of range 9 4mm is outside limits of 30 67mm Height value out of range 7 127m is outside limits of 27 33m Jul 2006 Age 6 Pruned 350 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 136 63 Dbh value out of range 11 3mm is outside limits of 30 67mm Height value out of range 8 71 3m is outside limits of 27 38m Height value out of range 8 678m is outside limits of 27 33m Jul 2008 Age 8 Resolving measured crop with historical crop Dbh value out of range 17 1mm is outside limits of 30 67mm OOOOOHOOOOOHODODHOOHH00H 83 messages showing 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 185 Forecaster v2 0 Yield Generator Interface Field Button Function Crop Condition This tab shows the table of Crop Condition data resulting from the tab simulation Crop Condition Condition Graph Yield g E ScenariolD Age_pears Stand_Date Event Stocking_stems_pe MeanTopHeight_m MeanHeight_m Basal amp rea_m2_per 3 31 07 2002 Start 8493953411517 3 752306310584 3 556154320987 1 598506826731 5 8525a6d3 a279 4 31 07 2003 849 0046447083 5 431484721616 5 145545743328 5 626577026647 1 _ 8525a6d3 a279 5 3107 2004 848 5953427007 7 206898875398 6 8269201 33761 1230235537764 1 8525a6d3 a279
114. en Log Price The break even log price the average log price required to break even is calculated as the sum of all discounted costs TRV where TRV is the sum of all log product volumes excluding waste The Economic Analysis Table At the completion of a simulation the Report Manager will appear allowing the Economic Analysis Report Table to be exported as either a CSV file or an Excel file The table has a number of sections one for each of the variations defined for the sensitivity analysis Within each of these there is one row for each cost or revenue cash flow item that has been applied and columns for each of the defining inputs and resulting outputs including NPV IRR Land Expectation Value Stumpage and Breakeven Price The Economic Analysis Report and Graph Also available via the Report Manager at the completion of an Economic Analysis is a graph of NPV vs clearfell age and an Economic Analysis Report For both of these the scenarios used are grouped such that scenarios with the same set of entities but differing only in clearfell age are treated as a group and constitute the basis of the report or a line on the graph To ease the selection of groups in the Report Manager in these cases only one scenario from any group need be selected and all other scenarios in that group will automatically be used 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 167 Forecaster v2 0 Practical Advice Practical Ad
115. en a stem s size and the order it is considered in as a candidate for pruning 118 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Regimes Pruning Events The Prune Event form is used to set up or modify a pruning event a Prune Event M Specify Re Prune Stocking Prune Sj stems ha Stem Selection M Specify Re Prune Percentage Prune at least 100 of crop stems Order Stems By Most Pruning Lifts Stem Ordering Strict rici Order 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 it 8 9 Pruning Strategy Height Height Pruning Constraints PercentageOfStem Caliper Minimum Green Crown Remaininglm Minimum Lift Length m Ok Cancel Apply Help The following table describes the functions of the fields and buttons in the Prune Event form Field Button Function Specify Re Prune The user enters the stocking number of trees per hectare which Stocking they wish to prune or reprune if it is a 2nd or subsequent pruning lift Specify Re Prune The Specify Re Prune Percentage field allows the user to specify a Percentage minimum percentage of the crop stems which must be pruned A crop stem is defined as e any stem which has the Is_Crop_Stem attribute set to TRUE or e where the Is_Crop_Stem attribute is not present any stem which was pruned in the previous pruning event The Specify Re Prune Percentage field is combined with the Specify
116. ent will occur e g MeanDOS gt 170mm and 2 the event itself which describes what will occur this may also include stem selection Condition A logical expression or group of expressions which defines when an event or events within a regime command will occur e g MeanDOS gt 170mm Crop The Forecaster entity that describes the characteristics of the crop to be simulated See Cutting Strategy Cutting Strategy The Forecaster entity that defines the cross cutting bucking strategy used to predict log yields from simulated stems by invoking either a priority based or optimising bucker Tree Diameter at Breast Height In New Zealand breast height is defined as 1 4 metres above ground on the uphill side of the tree Elsewhere including in Australia 1 3 metres is used Diameter Over Stubs The horizontal measurement over pruned branch stubs on any pruning lift Always measured on the largest whorl removed in that lift A Forecaster entity is one of the reusable building blocks used to define a Project Entities are used to represent the site crop function set and regime Other entities define reporting options species sets log product definitions and cutting patterns An operation or directive contained within a command in a Regime entity Function Set The Forecaster entity that defines the set of functions and models that will be used to simulate the growth of a crop Log Product The Forecaster entity that defines
117. ents for the same Command if required Repeat steps 4 and 5 for each Event required Add any further Commands required Repeat steps 2 to 6 Finish setting up the Regime e Ensure that a Stop Event is the last Event of the last Command e Check that the order of Commands and Events is correct e Click Ok to save all changes and return to the main form 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 111 Forecaster v2 0 Regimes Stem Ordering Many silvicultural operations require a subset of the stems in a stand to be selected These are the stems which are treated in the operation For example pruning is usually applied to a selection of stems which are large well formed evenly spaced and vigorous to ensure that the value added by pruning is applied to the trees which can maximise the production of clearwood Thinning often targets small malformed or un thrifty stems for removal thus improving the quality of the residual crop Forecaster manages the selection of stems by first ordering the stemlist based on stem dimensions or other characteristics The selection rules of the silvicultural operation are then applied to the stems in this order When sufficient stems have been selected to meet the target the operation is performed Stem ordering is specified as part of the operation Forecaster simulates the selection of stems for a silvicultural operation as follows Description
118. ge Pruned Stocking and Pruned Height The last thin prior to or at the measurement age must be specified in order to calculate age stocking and pruned height of prior lifts Also measurement and site information must be entered For example in the following form the Calculate button has been clicked after entering the required information Residual Stocking wus Lift Age Pruned Stocking Pruned Height stems na T 1 5 years stems na m o 330 Age 6 years Latitude 43 40 degrees South Stocking 0 stems ha Altitude 220 masi Basal Area 5 0 m2 ha 300 Index 27 3 m3 ha year Mean Top Height 7 84 m Site Ind 30 3 m penne sani E ox ca Calculating Stocking Basal area and Mean Top Height In order to calculate the stocking and or basal area and or mean top height the plant stocking measurement age altitude latitude and 300 Index and or Site Index must be entered 300 Index is required if basal area is to be calculated while Site Index is required if mean top height is to be calculated For example in the following form the Calculate button has been clicked after entering the required information uft Age Pruned Stocking 1 5 years stems na Measurements Site Age gt years Latitude 43 40 degrees South Stocking 898 gt stems ha Altitude 220 5 masi Basal Area 9 8 m2 ha 300 Index 26 0 m3 ha year Mean Top Height 8 0 m Site Index 31 0 m _ Select E
119. gram vertical bar series is keyed by colour and the legend on the right lists the corresponding events and ages Holding the mouse over a bar on the report will pop up the X Y values of the item Clicking and dragging from top left to bottom right will zoom to the selected rectangle The reverse gesture us 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Report Options will un zoom The tool bar above the chart can be used to change the style of the report and to print copy and save Thinning Stand Table A specific sub set of the options available in the Stocking Distributions Graph the Thinning Stand Table illustrates the distribution of stocking across DBH classes at the time of each thinning event In the example below the crop remaining after thinning is represented by the gold bars while the blue and gold together represent the crop prior to thinning These charts are useful to examine which part of the stemlist is being thinned out In the example below the first thinning targets the smallest stems while the second thinning following 2 further pruning lifts removes the unpruned stems which have now outgrown the pruned stems and so make up the large end of the DBH distribution amp Thinning Stand Table n foe View Thinning Stand Table Thinning Stand Table Age 5 6 Age 8 6 E Before Thin HM After Thin E Before Thin MM After Thin Stocking stems ha Stocking stems ha 1
120. ha 573 8095238 Stem List Species DBH_mm Height_m Weighting_stems_per_ha Is_Crop_Stem PrunedHeight_m P RAD 165 10 7 28 69047619 True P RAD 143 11 5 28 69047619 P RAD 200 Tae 28 69047619 True P RAD 190 il 28 69047619 True P RAD 185 10 9 28 69047619 True P RAD 186 13 28 69047619 True P RAD 161 TE 2 28 69047619 P RAD 176 107 28 69047619 True P RAD 166 See 28 69047619 True P RAD 157 11 1 28 69047619 P RAD 185 inl 28 69047619 True P RAD 193 15 28 69047619 True 1 items selected Forecaster holds only a limited set of characteristics for each stem Malformations sweep lean wobble kink are not modelled during silviculture Apart from DBH and height the vigour of a stem is not modelled directly in terms of crown density and health Forecaster represents a stand as a stem list growing on a site The list of stems does not include their spatial position so except for aggregate measures such as number of stems per hectare and basal area per hectare nothing is known of an individual stems placement or its neighbours Details such as the condition of the leader and branching habit are also not considered by Forecaster when simulating silvicultural operations though in reality they would be used as stem selection criteria by a silviculture crew To model a more realistic selection of stems for thinning or pruning the ordering variables and order variability can be set The exampl
121. he site Failing either of these the function set can provide a default value Model Properties Example In this example properties for the Generic Branch Model are being displayed sp Branch Model Properties Generic p BI Oj x Eal O Model Branch bscissionParameters 1 0 005 Branch4ngleDistribution 65 10 Branch4zimuthlncrement 137 5 BranchCountDistribution 6 0 2 0 BranchSizeT oAgeRelationship 0 25 BranchSizeT oMaxRelationship 0 128 BranchvitalityParameters 1 0 08 ClusterCountProbabilities 0 0 0 17 0 28 0 39 0 1 0 06 MaxBranchSizeDistribution 40 15 100 0 5 BranchAbscissionParameters Parameters to determine years to abscission after death a b diam 2 Cancel Apply Help p L 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Function Sets Models Available Forecaster provides a framework within which various models and functions have been implemented Some of these models are public domain and are therefore available to all Forecaster users while others are proprietary and available only to individual companies or members of specific research collaboratives Some of these proprietary models can be made more widely available subject to the payment of a royalty to the model owners When you first enter your license details into Forecaster the models and functions for which you have access rights is determined It is also possible for users t
122. he traditional 32 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Field Button Sites Function STANDPAK height index is based on Mean Top Height at age 20 of radiata pine of GF 7 2 Volume index A index of volume growth such as the the 300Index provides an indication of potential volume growth of the site Note the GF rating on the Site needs to match that on the Crop to allow the indices to be used in the simulation If they don t match or if the Site index fields either height or volume are left blank appropriate values will be calculated based on the measured crop parameters entered The Add button inserts a blank line at the bottom of the Height Indices list Enter a height and base age and for each of the other fields select from the picklists The Delete button removes the selected height index line Properties button Opens the Properties form allowing the site s properties to be added reviewed or modified A amp Site Properties o Ie Sa Name Value Growth ModellingRegion Central_North_Island Mean Annual Air Temperature LENZ 2010 degrees C 12 1 Mean Annual Air Temperature NIWA 2012 degrees C 12 4 Mean Minimum Autumnal Air Temperature degrees C 7 8 Nitrogen Score 4 0 OWBHD from surface kg m3 Age years 422 2 20 Phosphorous Score 6 0 Soil C N Ratio 18 89 4 O ai Note the properties names and values
123. iew Data that can be represented by a single value function of location is made available by a set of geo spatial surfaces Each surface contains the data for a single type of measurement altitude temperature etc for the whole of New Zealand as a grid of values each of which represents that measurement for any point within the geographic bounds of its grid cell The set of spatial data for any site is established by accessing the appropriate surfaces using the location s coordinates see Spatial Site Selection and stored on the site as either attributes or properties see the following table Surfaces Available Surface Property Name Grid Cell Size Altitude n a 100m Radiata Site Index n a 1km Radiata 300 Index n a 1km Radiata Density Index OWBHD from surface kg m3 Age years 500m Redwood Site Index n a 100m Redwood 400 Index n a 100m Cypress Site Index n a 100m Soil Nutrition Nitrogen Nitrogen Score 100m Soil Nutrition Phosphorous Phosphorous Score 100m Soil Carbon Nitrogen Ratio Soil C N Ratio 100m Mean Annual Temperature Mean Annual Air Temperature NIWA 2012 500m NIWA degrees C Mean Annual Temperature Mean Annual Air Temperature LENZ 2010 100m LENZ degrees C Mean Minimum Autumnal Mean Minimum Autumnal Air Temperature 100m Temperature degrees C Growth Modelling Region Growth Modelling Region 100m Sampling Area When reading from a surface the value returned is that att
124. ifferences in the spread of DBH All these stands have the same basal area and mean top height Crop Name Description Example 160 Maximum DBH 160mm Example 180 Maximum DBH 180mm Example 220 Maximum DBH 220mm The distribution of stem height m and DBH mm for an initial crop with a maximum DBH of 160mm Height m 0 50 100 150 200 DBH mm Example DBH 160mm max 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Crops The distribution of stem height m and DBH mm for an initial crop with a maximum DBH of 180mm Example DBH 180mm max The distribution of stem height m and DBH mm for an initial crop with a maximum DBH of 220mm Example DBH 220mm max 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Crops For finer control over the variation in DBH the subset information can be converted to whole stand and then the stem basal area CV altered Crop Name Description Example BA CV43 Stem basal area CV 43 Example BA CV30 Stem basal area CV 30 The distribution of stem height m and DBH mm for an initial crop with a maximum DBH of 180mm and a stem basal area CV of 43 Height m 200 Example BA CV 43 The distribution of stem height m and DBH mm for an initial crop with a maximum DBH of 180mm and a stem basal area CV of 30 Height m 50 100 150 200 DBH mm
125. il This strategy allows all volume equations to be used from early ages and still predictreasonable values x i caei _ Apply Hele 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 179 Forecaster v2 0 Importing and Exporting Data using CSV files Forecaster entities can be exported to and imported from comma separated values CSV data files either individually or as complete Projects This allows o the transferring of data into and out of Microsoft Excel for alternate analysis o a simple method of storing or archiving a dataset o the transferring of data to from another Forecaster database o the sending of relevant data usually an entire Project to Scion Software Support as part of an error report in order for the problem conditions to be more easily reproduced Exporting Data To Export one or more entities of the same type select the entities to be exported right click inside the List View upper right Pane and select Export form the context menu A dialog box then prompts for the name of the file to be created and the folder that it is to be written into When exporting a Project it is possible and very useful to also export all of the entities that the Project references uses The Export dialog for Projects includes an extra dropdown Entities to Export amp File to Export Project s to eae Savein Test Data 2 PB iv tS Name n Date modified Type zy
126. ilable to all users e Knowles Kimberley 1997 applicable to Radiata pine and available only to members of the Radiata Management Theme of Future Forests Research Limited FFR e Knowles Douglas fir applicable to Douglas fir and available only to members of the Diversified Species Theme of FFR All three models use the same kind of mechanism to predict BIX at the log level but with slightly different function forms and coefficients The BIX models work with 5 5 metre height classes First an average BIX value for each height class is created for the entire crop At the time of felling each individual stem piece is then calibrated by the average crop BIX values for each height class When the stem piece is being assessed by the bucker the average BIX for a candidate log is calculated from the height class BIX values Note The BIX is modelled only at time of clearfell it is not modelled through the crop s lifetime How BIX is Predicted at the Crop Level For each 5 5 metre height class the crop s average BIX is calculated from e Crop stocking e Thinning ages e Mean Top Height at each thinning e Residual stocking at each thinning e Mean DBH at age 20 e Mean SED by 5 5 metre height class 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available How BIX is Related from Crop Level to Stem Level When a stem is felled and made into a stem piece branch indices are calculated at the mid point of e
127. ime triggers were converted to fixed dates in the Treatments form This is not the case in Forecaster which allows Regimes to be shared For example if a Regime where pruning is triggered by MeanDOS is shared across stands which differ in productivity the resultant pruning age for each pruning event will be unique to each stand In this section This section contains the following topics Regime Screen and Popup Displays Creating a New Regime Stem ordering 102 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Regimes Regime Forms Regime Form The Regime form allows the conditions and events in a regime s commands to be added or changed Each command is distinguished by an alternating background colour in the form s grid Ch Regime Reged rc C fe Name Regime 3 Description Condition Event Date Jul 2000 Plant 850 0 stems ha Specie P RAD Date Jul 2004 Prune 320 stems ha order from Largest DBH x Height 0 0 with Maximum Pruned Height m of 2 5 Minimum Green Crown Remaining m of 2 5 Minimum Lift Length m of 2 0 Thin to waste to Residual Stocking of 450 stems ha order from Smallest Pruned Height 0 0 Date Jul 2006 Prune 300 stems ha where at least 100 are crop stems order from Largest Pruned Height 0 0 with Maximum Pruned Height m of 5 0 Minimum Green Crown Remaining m of 3 0 Minimum Lift Length m of 2 0 Thin to waste to Residual Stocking of 400 s
128. imes The full list of combinations can be refined to include only those that are relevant When the simulation engine processes a project it iterates through the list of combinations The full set of results from the whole list is called a simulation A Project can also optionally refer to an Economic Settings entity which will enable the results from a simulation to include an economic analysis Scenarios Within a simulation each possible outcome is called a scenario A scenario is a sequence of events that could happen in practice and so corresponds to the combination of one of each of the following Crop Site Function Set Regime clearfell age Cutting Strategy A combination of Site Crop Function Set and Regime can generate multiple scenarios This is because a Regime may include more than one clearfell age each with more than one Cutting Strategy In reality a stand can only be felled at one age and stems can only be bucked once so each of these options becomes a unique scenario The scenario is the basis for comparing the results arising from differences in the component entities or in harvest details clearfell date and Cutting Strategy Each scenario has a unique identity not only within simulations but also across simulations and across installations of the system 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Projects The relationship between Projects Entity Combinations and Scen
129. indicate this to the user 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 125 Forecaster v2 0 Regimes Using Forecaster to Manage Pruning Behaviour When new prune events are added to a regime it is recommended that the Re Prune initially be set at 100 If the timing of the pruning seems to be unrealistically delayed then the Re Prune can be lowered Whether or not the pruning has been delayed can be identified from the Message Viewer following simulation Information level messages are displayed indicating when the dummy pruning was attempted Message A i Jan 2009 Age 4 65 Pruned 384 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 171 08 i Feb 2009 Age 4 7 Pruned 384 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 179 30 4 Feb 2009 Age 4 7 Unable to reprune all pruned stems Repruned 0 00 of a total of 384 00 pruned stems 4 Mar 2009 Age 4 76 Unable to reprune all pruned stems Repruned 0 00 of a total of 383 99 pruned stems i Apr 2009 Age 4 81 Unable to reprune all pruned stems Repruned 0 00 of a total of 383 98 pruned stems 4 May 2009 Age 4 84 Unable to reprune all pruned stems Repruned 0 00 of a total of 383 97 pruned stems Jun 2009 Age 4 86 Unable to reprune all pruned stems Repruned 0 00 of a total of 383 97 pruned stems 4 Jul 2009 Age 4 9 Unable to reprune all pruned stems Repruned 0 00 of a total of 383 96 pruned stems 4 Aug 2009 Age 5 Unable to reprune all pruned stems Repruned 2 50 of a
130. ions the details of the predicted Acoustic Velocity values can be displayed in the StemPiece Viewer 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Microfibril Angle MFA Model General Microfibril angle is the angle of cellulose microfibrils in the S2 layer of softwood tracheids It is important for the performance of solid timber because of its strong influence on stiffness strength shrinkage properties and dimensional stability MFA Models Implemented The currently available microfibril angle models are e FFRMFA The FFR microfibril angle model for radiata pine 29 It predicts a value of microfibril angle at a point specified by its height up the stem as a proportion of the stem s total height and radially outwards from the pith by ring number This model is available only to members of the Radiata Management Theme of FFR e None used when no modelling of microfibril angle is required Data Requirements No other data is needed as input to the model thus there are no Properties defined for the model Between stem Variation The FFRMFA model does not explicitly model any inter stem variation but does so implicitly through the variation in the stems DBH and height Outputs When the FFRMFA model is selected from the predicted point values the following values are calculated for each log e a mean value of MFA e the percent of the log s volume for which the val
131. ject itself Note that the import process will overwrite any entities with the same names as those being imported 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 181 Forecaster v2 0 Yield Generator Interface Yield Generator Interface The Yield Generator is a simplified interface to Forecaster targeted at users whose primary interest is the production of yield tables It is available to all members of the Radiata Theme of Future Forests Research for information on how to gain access to this please see the Contacts for Models section of this manual There are two main parts to the application e Project definition specifying the site function set and silvicultural regime with its crop e Yield results the crop condition table and graph time series and the yield table resulting from running a simulation of the specified project entities This interface is built on the same underlying framework and engines as Forecaster to ensure consistency in the predictions and to allow their use of regimes and other data sets All information is saved to the Forecaster database and can be used as a starting point for more extensive analyses via the main Forecaster interface Yield Generator allows only a single combination of site regime incorporating the crop and function set to be specified in one run However the regime may specify a range of clearfell ages in order to produce a multi row yield table Cutting Strategies and
132. l is automatically selected This also ensures that the carbon predictions are consistent with the approach taken by the NZ Government for the Emissions Trading Scheme ETS A separate log density model may also be specified in the FunctionSet to model log density see Density Models C change works by estimating biomass in several pools Above ground live Below ground live Dead woody litter e Fine litter Shrub understorey As part of the Forecaster simulation a yield table of annual under bark stem volumes is produced by a growth model for example GM300Index PPM88 etc under the specified silvicultural regime The biomass estimates are made as a function of the total under bark standing volume together with details of pruning and thinning Stocking predictions are also required in order to calculate the volume lost to mortality The predictions of wood density from a density model are used to derive the amount of carbon sequestered from the biomass estimates C change predicts carbon sequestration across both the current rotation and the next rotation The second rotation is assumed to be identical to the first in terms of the silviculture and volume yields but starts with the carbon residue from the first rotation on the site C change Parameters Three parameters can be specified for the C change carbon model e ClearFellPercent This is the percentage of the clearfelled stem volume that is removed from the site By default
133. lable only to companies who are members of both the Radiata Management and Diversified Species Themes of Future Forests Research Limited FFR The models run using a Site height Index there is no volume based productivity index Thinning effects are modelled using a time shift approach Pruning effects are not included in the model There are no known validation studies NZ1 This is a public domain model for radiata pine growing on low to medium basal area fertility sites Proprietary Models A number of models have been implemented for the use of individual organisations Height Age Site Index Models Height age models usually use a sigmoid curve for predicting stand height mean top height or dominant height as a function of age These models are often considered as fixed components of growth models but may be specified independently in some cases If a growth model does require a mandatory height age model then specifying a different height age model can break key assumptions of the growth model and potentially invalidate the growth results The curve is usually indexed at a base age which in NZ is conventionally set at 20 years for radiata pine and 40 years for Douglas fir This allows measures of site index to be used to characterise the stand height growth on specific sites Site index can be predicted from environmental variables 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecas
134. land Forest Research Institute Limited 173 Forecaster v2 0 Practical Advice Potential Performance Issues At the start of a simulation all Practical Advice entities are loaded then for every month in the simulation the condition of each Practical Advice entity is evaluated If the condition for a Practical Advice entity evaluates to TRUE then this Practical Advice will appear in the Message Viewer displayed at the end of the simulation The loading of all Practical Advice entities and checking of the conditions will cause the simulation to consume more memory and to run more slowly Given this it is recommended that most simulations be done with Practical Advice disabled This may be done by de selecting the main menu option Tools Show Practical Advice or de selecting the main menu option Tools Show Messages The order that variables are listed in the condition also impacts on processing performance For more information see Short Circuit Evaluation in the Evaluating Conditions section Browsing Practical Advice The main menu option Tools Browse Practical Advice will export all Practical Advice entities then create and display a contents page in a browser with links to both System and User defined Practical Advice content nents and Settings joelg Local Settings Application Data ATLAS Technology forecaster Pra Windows Internet Explorer pre 5 xj er 174 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limit
135. lities of Number of Clusters This parameter determines the probability of the number of branch clusters modeled per shoot This is derived stochastically from a look up table of probabilities The default values set for the Generic models follow those defined by Grace et al 199926 but exclude single cluster shoots P 3 P 4 P 5 P 6 cluster cluster cluster j cluster j cluster 0 28 0 39 0 1 0 06 The table shows that there is a 0 1 or 10 chance that a given shoot will only have one cluster a 0 15 or 15 chance it will have 2 clusters a 0 25 or 25 chance it will have three and so on There are only six probabilities displayed but more can be created for the probability of seven eight X clusters as long as all the probabilities add to one The Clusters are equi spaced within the annual shoot with the last cluster at the top of the shoot Maximum Size of Largest Branch in a Cluster Predicted stochastically from a normal distribution bounded at O with a scale factor for dominance and spacing as shown by Grace et al 1999 29 Default is N 40mm 15mm xF from Madgwick 1994 28 F is b r e Fe N j Nhioo dbh Where N is stems per hectare hioo is Mean top height m dbh numerator is breast height diameter over bark in mm dbh denominator is stand mean breast height diameter over bark in mm a is 100 bis 0 5 BLOSSIM Branch Location Orientation and Size SIMulator The BLOSSIM branch model for radiata pine predicts
136. muth is randomly assigned to the largest branch in a cluster from U 0 lt 360 Smaller branches are directed at a fixed increment in order from the azimuth of the largest branch Default increment is 137 5 degrees from Grace et al 1999 48 Branch Count Distribution Number of Branches Distribution This value is used to determine the number of branches modeled in each cluster Default values from Madgwick 1994 18 e Average Number of Branches per Cluster 6 0 e Standard Deviation 2 0 The distribution is predicted stochastically from a normal distribution bounded at 1 Branchsize To Age Relationship Branch Diameter Growth to the Maximum Predicted from D Dax 1 ek 8 Branch sizes are mm and age is years Default is k 0 25 after Madgwick 1994 28 Branchsize To Max Relationship Size of Smaller Branches in a Cluster Predicted from D D ea n 1 n largest where n is branch rank such that D1 is the size of the largest branch in mm Default is a 0 128 from Madgwick 1994 43 Branch Vitality Parameters Branch Vitality The number of years a branch lives is related to its maximum size mm Predicted from Years Live a bD ax 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 73 Forecaster v2 0 Field Models Available Description Defaults are a 1 and b 0 08 from Madgwick 1994 48 Cluster Count Probabilities Max Branch Size Distribution Probabi
137. n In addition to stem selection criteria as for a Waste Thinning above a Production Thinning Event must specify a Cutting Strategy Production Thin Event Stem Selection Cutting Strategy Properties Thin all unpruned stems ce Toa Residual M Stocking aj stems ha Order Stems By Fewest Pruning Lifts Strict 0 rder 1 i i 0 1 2 a 4 5 6 T Demo Strategy oe Name Production thinning area lost percentage Ok Cancel Apply Help Field Property Cutting Strategy Select a Cutting Strategy by browsing the tree of all defined Cutting Strategies Production percentage Specify the amount of net stocked area lost due to roads and skid thinning area lost sites as a percentage 0 100 This area loss is assumed to be permanent i e for the rest of the rotation 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 129 Forecaster v2 0 Log Product Definitions Log Product Definitions Understanding Log Product Definitions Log product definitions define the criteria to be used when bucking cross cutting stem pieces into logs and grading them A number of standard log product definitions are available based on New Zealand examples Creating a Log Product Definition Log Product Definitions will usually be set up in separate folders For example you may have several folders such as Domestic and Export in which you would place each of your sets of log grades e g pruned sa
138. n Stem DBH Mean Stem Height Mean Stem Crown Length Mean Stem DOS Mean Crop Height Rotation 1 Carbon Rotation 2 Carbon StemPiece Viewer Standard reports are created as PDF files It is also possible to export report tables as either CSV files or Excel files via the Export menu Note The only tables available those not greyed out will be those that were either ticked in the Reports Options or were required by Forecaster to generate requested standard graphs or reports 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Projects Report Manager ga i BF Fie Reports Graphs MSs StemPiece Viewer File Drag a column heade Yield Table ScenarioDetail Table AnnualCropCondition Table 25years 25 03 07 2026 gt 30 yeas 30 03 31 07 2031 MonthlyCropCondition Table C Function Se Age gt 25 years 3107 2026 PruningDetail Table StockingDistribution Table StemListDetail Table LogSummary Table Logvield Table LogTrace Table PSPPlot Table PSPStem Table A me ars rvv v vv v wavy The tables available for export are described in Available Report Tables 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Species Sets Species Sets Species Sets are collections of one or more species and they are used when constructing Function Sets and Log Product Definitions A Species Set is constructed as a sub set of the Master Species List which is maintained in the
139. n be missing Weighting stems_per_ha The number of stems per hectare that the measured stem represents The sum of all stems weightings equals the stocking Import Imports a stem list from a CSV file see Importing Entities from CSV Files Export Exports the crop s stem list to a CSV file Preview Stem List Produces a Stem List Chart see below Optional Fields 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Crops The following optional fields can also be used Is _Crop_Stem set to either TRUE or FALSE If TRUE this stem will be pruned in the next simulated pruning event This field is used to force Forecaster to prune stems which have already been identified as crop stems PruneHeight_m the vertical distance up the stem from ground level to the first dead or live branches not removed by pruning If this value is missing the stem is assumed to be unpruned Lift_DOS_mm Lift_DOS_Height_m Lift_DOS Max_Branch_mm Properties unused currently Missing Stem Heights If any stem heights are missing in the stem list Forecaster will attempt to fill in values by fitting a height DBH relationship to those stems that have both DBH and Height measured This relationship is then used to estimate the missing heights as a function of DBH Stem List Preview A Stem list whether generated by Forecaster from Stand Subset Whole Stand or taken from actual plot measurements Stem List
140. n crown is at 4 44 m Current Insufficent green crown remaining to prune stem Highest cluster which leaves at least 4 0 m green crown is at 4 19 m Current Insufficent green crown remaining to prune stem Highest cluster which leaves at least 4 0 m green crown is at 4 19 m Current Insufficent green crown remaining to prune stem Highest cluster which leaves at least 4 0 m green crown is at 4 57 m Current Insufficent green crown remaining to prune stem Highest cluster which leaves at least 4 0 em green crown is at 4 31 m Current Insufficent green crown remaining to prune stem Highest cluster which leaves at least 4 0 m green crown is at 4 57 m Current vi gt No Details OK Some stems might not be able to be pruned because they haven t yet grown enough to meet the pruning constraints In the following months as these stems grow they will eventually be able to pruned and satisfy all constraints However in some cases the location of a particular cluster on a stem in relation to the current pruned height and the pruning constraints may cause this delay to be unduly extended Where only a small number of individual stems are unduly holding up the pruning event after the majority of the stems have been able to be successfully pruned for some time then the user should consider setting the pruned percentage to a value less than 100 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 127 Forecaste
141. ne the physical characteristics of the piece of land and its potential for tree growth A stand in the usual sense is a combination of a particular crop growing on a particular site The separation of site and crop allows multiple alternative crops to be simulated on a given site e Crops A crop is used to define the characteristics of the trees for which growth is to be simulated e Regimes Regimes are used to specify the sequence and timing of silvicultural events that are applied to a crop Regimes comprise a series of commands and each command has two parts one or more conditions and one or more events The condition s defines when to carry out an event and the event defines the operation to be undertaken and which stems it will apply to Note If a plant and measurement event is included in a regime then crop selection is not required for a combination 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Projects Entities and Combinations Explanation The entities to be used in the project are selected by clicking on the box next to the required model This is done for each of the tabs Function Set Sites Crops Regimes The selection process generates a number of combinations for example if 1 Function Set 2 Sites 4 Crops and 2 Regimes are selected ticked then 16 combinations will be generated 1 x 2x4x2 16 Combinations View This is the combinations view that is generated after the Ini
142. nformation in order to produce estimates of stand condition and log yield Underlying the interfaces and the engine is a data access layer which interfaces to the SQL Server database This database holds current versions of entities such as crops regimes log grade definitions etc The system is built on the Microsoft NET framework and so requires NET runtime to be installed Interfaces to Forecaster There are two options for running Forecaster 1 Graphical User Interface Within the Forecaster GUI users can e Define entities crops regimes interactively by filling in the on screen forms e Define a Project as a combination of entities and more than one instance of each entity so that multiple scenarios are generated ew Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 e Analyse multiple scenarios in a single simulation run 2 Command Line Interface Alternatively Forecaster can be run in command line mode In this case entities are defined via CSV files and Forecaster is run from the command line prompt FCMD Forecaster CoMmanD In this section This section contains the following topics Topics Install Uninstall Forecaster Contacts Installing Uninstalling Forecaster Minimum System Requirements See the ATLAS Technology website http www atlastech co nz products forecaster system requirements for running ffr forecaster Installing Forecaster See the document Get
143. ns iersinii eet ioien rns a paaa a eaa oeaiei anea a ei aE Ee aan smear 139 Available Standard Reports 142 Silvicultural Details Report 143 Log Yield Report 145 Economic Analysis Report 146 Available Standard Charts 149 Available Report Tables 154 Batch Mode Output 157 StemPiece Details Chart 158 Economic Analysis NAA APL N ETS AAE VAE NA E ADARA TEE E EAA E PEE A AE EATS 159 Economic Settings Entity 159 The Economic Analysis Process 166 eie lean eE oh E E N EA ENE A AAE LEE EP OE AEA AOE 168 Editing Practical Advice 171 Potential Performance Issues 174 Browsing Practical Advice 174 Conditions ziroaniaara eaaa ea a a a a a a e a a a ea TA 175 Editing Conditions 176 Evaluating Conditions 178 System Settings oeri sidia etiaai e aa aaae iaaea dad aa aa EN 179 Importing and Exporting Data using CSV files secseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeneteteneneneneneneenes 180 4 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Yield Generator Interface cccecccccsssccccccssceccceesccceceescececeeseceecseseeseeeeneesesueseeseeeesseesenensess 182 Regional Function Sets 188 Command Line Interface cccccccccccsssessssececececessesseseeeceeeessessesseaeeeeeesesssesnsaeeeseesenseeseaaeas 190 Software Overview and Installation ccccescececeseesceceeeceeeseeecaeeaeeecaeeaeeessevseeeeeaseeeateas 192 Installing Uninstalling Forecaster 193 Contacts 194 REFERENCES 525 chins ye tuie Teat EE ROSE eB LAO RRR
144. ntinues to develop the plot will approach this line but competition induced mortality will keep it from exceeding the maximum SDI Note that in some cases on fertile ex farm sites for example the maximum SDI has been observed to be up to 1500 though 1200 is the norm in most cases Stand Density Management Diagram Posies So View Stand Density Management Diagram Project P a Projects Framing single thin Site S Sites FFR Q Silv Workshop Whakarewarewa Forest Crop C Crops FFR Q Silv Workshop WAKA 1000 Stand Density Management Diagram 1 000 500 200 100 Quadratic Mean DBH mm 50 20 200 500 1 000 2 000 Stocking stems ha Thinning events are easily interpreted as they cause a sudden jump to the left indicating an instantaneous reduction in stocking The direction of the line indicates the type of thinning undertaken when the line moves upward as in the example below the thinning is from below i e the smaller stems have been removed thus increasing the average stem diameter A horizontal line indicates a random thinning across the diameter range while a downward line would indicate that the average stem diameter decreased as a result of the thinning such thinning from above may occur in a clearwood regime where the pruned stems have been out grown by the followers or in production thinning regimes 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited
145. o add their own models to the system for more details contact the Help Desk This topic contains the following sub topics Sub topic Growth Models Height Age Site Index Models Monthly Adjustment Tables Volume and Taper Equations Breakage Equations Branch Models Branch Index BIX Models Sweep Models Forking Model Stiffness Models Density Models Heartwood Model Carbon Model Microfibril Angle Model Spiral Grain Angle Model Contacts for Models 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Growth Models Several growth models have been implemented in Forecaster including Model iescription O GM300Index The 300Index Growth Model244 for radiata pine was initially developed by the New Zealand Farm Forestry Association with subsequent improvements by the Plantation Management Cooperative and Future Forests Research It is now available only to members of the Radiata Management Theme of Future Forests Research Limited FFR The 300Index is a volume productivity index and is defined as the mean annual volume increment in m ha yr at an age of 30 years assuming a final stocking of 300 stems ha timely pruning to 6m and thinning to final crop at completion of pruning Thinning and pruning effects are modelled using a time shift approach The model has been validated and improved a number of times and found to be unbiased 40414445
146. ocyparis Cupressocyparis Cedrus deodara Chamaecyparis lawsoniana Cryptomeria japonica Castanea sativa Cupressus arizonica Cupressus lusitanica Cupressus macrocarpa Creating a new Species Set Action Species Set Species Name Full Name P RAD Radiata pine Botanical Name Pinus radiata Ok Cancel Apply Help Key Point Display the New Species Set form e Right click on the Species Set master folder Note that for Species Sets no subfolders can be created under the master folder e Choose New Enter a name and description as required Create a list of species e Highlight the species you wish to include and click Add Once your list is complete click Ok or Apply The Master Species List The Master Species List The Master Species List is the list of all species available for use in Forecaster It is accessed via the Tools Species List menu item 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Species Sets Forecaster Species List Name Full Name AADLB Silver wattle AAMEL Blackwood AAMNI Black wattle ACPSE Sycamore AGAUS Kauri ANGLU Black alder CCLEY Leyland cypress CCLHG Haggleston Grey cypress CCLLG Naplors Blue cypress CEDEO Deodar CHLAW Lawson cypress CRJAP Japanese cedar CTSAT Spanish chestnut CUARZ Arizona cypress CULUS Mexican cypress CUMAC Macrocarpa CUMIX Cypress mixture C2SPA Northern catalpa DCCOL Silver pine DCC
147. ommand 3 Date 7 2006 r C Growing to tigger O Event 1 Prune O Event 2 WasteThin C Command 4 Date 7 2008 r E Growing to trigger C Event 1 Measurement Command 5 MeanDOS gt 181 C Growing to trigger C Event 1 Prune amp C Command 6 Age 25 years C Growing to tigger Event 1 Clearfell C Modeling sweep CI Modeling forking Felling DfAA H arvmetine tit ont a eee D CN a a a a p a a TN CN a D a A a Message Age out of range 0 05years is outside limits of 2 8 38years Dbh value out of range 1 1mm is outside limits of 30 67mm Height value out of range 2 478 is outside limits of 27 33m GM300Index Basal area is outside growthmodel limits Current basal area is 0 292757863597563m2 ha The minimum Level of 57 6602195684034m is greater than tree height of 57 6602195684034m Volume is equal to total tree volume b Dbh value out of range 2 7mm is outside limits of 30 67mm Height value out of range 3 635m is outside limits of 27 33m Level of 27m is greater than tree height of 27m Volume is equal to total tree volume by definition Level of 28 9818511786861m is greater than tree height of 28 9818511786861m Volume is equal to total tree volume b Jul 2005 Age 5 Pruned 380 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 126 28 Dbh value out of range 6 4mm is outside limits of 30 67mm Height value out of range 6 319m is outside limits of 27 33m Level of 27 000m is greater than tree h
148. on Sets Properties A Property is an associated name and value that is used to provide specific relevant information to the system during a simulation by being attached to one of the entities involved A property s value can be alphabetic numeric or a set of comma separated numeric values For example a Crop may have a property named GF Rating with a value of 18 This is represented as GF Rating 18 Many models and functions need configurable parameters or values for independent variables that are specific to their particular purposes Properties are used to provide those values During a simulation the value used for a particular property within a scenario can be sourced from the crop the site or the function set When Forecaster constructs a stand a crop ona site it looks in order first to the crop and then to the site and finally to the function set in order to find values for the properties required by the specified models This precedence allows for specific values on the crop to over ride more generic values on the site which in turn can over ride any default values on the function set For example density models often require a value for stand average breast height outer wood density If this is measured on a crop then that value can be specified via a property on the crop If the crop hasn t been measured for density but an average for the site e g that forest is known then that value can be specified via a property on t
149. on the form of the stems and the quality of the wood it can produce By grouping a set of modelling functions that are applicable to a specific region more accurate predictions of growth yield and quality can be made Growth and yield models are usually developed for particular regions or sites The following regions are commonly identified in New Zealand Auckland Clays North Island Sands Central North Island East coast of the North Island Hawke s Bay e Nelson Westland Canterbury Southland Otago In Forecaster region is determined via location easting and northing from the following surface gt Note that while most boundaries coincide with broad geo physical divisions or political administrations the North Island coastal sands are a non contiguous collection of areas derived from soil type 188 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Yield Generator Interface Default Function Sets for Radiata Pine Regional function sets for radiata pine have been compiled for the listed regions as well as for the southern North Island Wellington Wanganui Taranaki Region specific instances of the following functions are nominated in the Function Sets e Monthly growth adjustment end monthly adjustments to age which allow for seasonal growth e Breakage table amount and severity of stem breakage on felling Some functions models can be applied across regions as they are independent of location or they
150. on which can be edited as described above Select a combination and click Delete to remove the combination from the project This can be useful in a large simulation where some combinations do not make sense Copy button Select a combination and click Copy to add an identical combination to the list This is a quick way to create a new combination with most of the same entities as an existing combination For example If the Crop Function Set and Site are the same but they need to be combined with different Regimes then create the first Regime combination It is then quicker to copy the first Regime combination as many times as required and make the Regime changes to each combination 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Projects Running Simulations A Simulation is run by selecting a Project and clicking on the Simulate button on the toolbar lt gt ATLAS Forecaster 1 7 1 0 Entities DB local SQLEXPRESS Forecaster_Manual Reports DB local SQLEXPRES E E amp File Edit View Tools Window Help D 4 Q Za D New New Group Edit Refresh Cut Copy Simulate Entities Name Description Combinations Crops Function Sets Regime E Projects PY Forecaster Demo 1 Screenshots for Forecaster Manual 4 Demol Demo2 Central_North_Island Demot GC Sites H Forecaster Demo 2 Screenshots for Forecaster manual 2 Demot Central_North_Island Demot HO Crops ao Function Se
151. one region or locality over a particular range of stem size and age Other factors that influence stem shape include silviculture genetics and environmental effects such as exposure A number of equations are available for radiata pine Equation 237 has been commonly used to represent stems of average form within New Zealand 5 Equation 460 uses additional stand information and prune height to predict the shape of each stem which makes it appropriate for comparing silvicultural regimes where the final crop stocking differs Safe Calculation of Stem volume Every tree volume and taper equation used within the Forecaster system contains information about the data from which it was derived This can be viewed by looking at the details of the equation in the equation selector from the function set form For example the volume equation 237 reports the following Range of data min DBH max DBH min Height max Height mean Volume 28 0 69 0 32 0 49 0 2 5 where DBHs are in centimetres heights are in metres and the volume is in cubic metres If the volume is calculated for any stem outside the data range a warning message is produced but the calculation proceeds As a typical regime may run from an early age and the stem list will represent all stems from suppressed to dominant volume equations will routinely be applied to small stems outside their data range Some types of equations may fail to calculate volumes for small stems and simply retu
152. or genetically improved stock can be made clicking the Show Genetic Adjustment button clicking that button again hides the detail 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Crops 4 Generate a Start Age Crop P RAD 300 Index o B j S Crop Plant Year 2012 Plant Month June X Plant Stocking 1000 stems ha Start Age Stocking 950 stems ha GF Rating 14 Site Site Sites BoP Medium Altitude 250 m Latitude 38 South Site Index 27 m for GF Rating of 14 300 Index 28 m ha yr for GFRatng v of 22 Density Index 419 kg m for GF Plus Wood Density of 22 Planted Genetic Base Adjusted Indices GF Rating y 2 300 Index 28 00 m ha yr GF Plus Wood Density 26 Density Index 426 4 kg m GF Plus Branching Habit Hide Genetic Adjustment Generate Cancel Help The genetic base of the site s 300 Index must be specified by selecting a quality measurement type and value Note that the same genetic measurement type must used for the planted stock and the site s 300 index i e both must be either GF Rating or GF Plus Growth Once this is entered the improved 300 index for the site is generated by pressing the Calculate Adjusted Indices button The resulting value reflects the likely productivity of the planted stock on this site 3 Currently there is no support for improving the site index for tree stock of higher genetic quality however the site index value can be alte
153. orecaster v2 0 Log Product Definitions Tab Heading Description Shape Branching 132 Dimensional Shape Branching Wood Property Indicators Maximum o 0 4 m length within Log Maximum 0 The Shape tab is where the maximum allowable sweep is defined measured as the maximum deviation of the log s centreline from a line joining the centres of the log s ends The deviation can be specified as either 1 an absolute value 2 a percentage of the log s SED or 3 a percentage of the diameter at the log s midpoint In addition it may be specified as applying to the full length of the log or to a section of a specified length occurring anywhere along the log A maximum allowable taper can also be specified Dimensional Shape Branching Wood Property Indicators Branch Information Source No Model BIX Model e g Inglis Cleland 1981 Branch Model e g BLOSSIM Minimum Contiguous Length m mm Al o Minimum Angle 0 El Degrees No allowed with smaller angle pe Min Total Length 0 m kb With at least Internodes longer than oj m and the remaining internodes at least 0 m long 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Tab Heading Log Product Definitions Description The Branching tab allows constraints to be specified in terms of pruning and branching characteristics Pruned Log If the log
154. ot yet have surfaces available for them PSMEN site and 500 index and EUFAS site index and so their cells will be left empty Make any modifications needed If necessary manually change or enter for empty cells values in the data grid Complete the selection Press the OK button to confirm the selection of the new location This will return you to the site s maintenance form Selecting a Location Using Co ordinates Follow these steps to select a location using the direct co ordinates Action Key Point Enter coordinates for the location Enter the coordinates for the site s location in the appropriate fields as either e NZMG Northing and Easting or e NZGD49 Latitude and Longitude Coordinates can be obtained from a GIS or mapping tool or a hard copy map and then entered into these fields Use those coordinates Click Recalculate This will update the other pair of coordinates and then interrogate the spatial surfaces for the newly specified location The resulting values are displayed in the data grid on the right hand side of the form Make any modifications needed If necessary manually change or enter for empty cells values in the data grid Complete the selection Press OK to close this form and populate the site parameters to the site form 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Sites Geo spatial Surfaces Overv
155. otorua Scion 4 Van Der Colff M amp Kimberley M 2011 A system to generate Pinus radiata starting tree lists in FFR Forecaster Unpublished FFR Report No R034 NZ Forest Research Institute Ltd 5 Kimberley M 2011 Procedures to allow for incomplete stand histories when running the 300 Index growth model Unpublished FFR Report No R035 NZ Forest Research Institute Ltd 6 Kimberley M O amp Beets P N 2007 National volume function for estimating total stem volume of Pinus radiata stands in New Zealand New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science 37 3 355 371 7 Kimberley M 2011 Improvements to the 300 Index growth model Unpublished FFR Report No NZ Forest Research Institute Ltd 8 Fraser T Tustin J R amp Szumidlo Z 1977 Financial evaluation of forestry projects Information Series No 75 New Zealand Forest Service Rotorua 9 Xu P Cown D amp McKinley R 2008 Radiata pine heartwood modelling Unpublished FFR Report No ROO8 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Ltd 10 Rawley B 2009 Heartwood and green density models for Pinus radiata Unpublished WAI Reports STR 28 11 Kimberley M O West G Dean M amp Knowles R L 2005 The 300 Index a volume productivity index for radiata pine New Zealand Journal of Forestry 50 2 13 18 12 Knowles L 2005 Development of a Productivity Index for Douglas fir New Zealand Journal of Forestry 50 2 19 22
156. p pane Language Elements Information This multi line text box is used to enter or modify the expressions defining a Condition Items can be typed into the box directly or chosen from the Language Element list below Note that variable names function names and operators are not case sensitive A list of valid variable names function names and operators which may be used to define the expression These include variables associated with user defined entities e Sites e g altitude site index e Crops e g species stocking mean top height e Function Sets e g growth model taper table Other available variables include those associated with e Events which may occur throughout the simulation e g event type pre event basal area e Dates e g year month In addition the list also includes e Expression operators e g gt NOT and e Functions e g IF IN Log Round User defined properties on either the site or the crop can also be used to define the expression for example Site Properties WindRisk could be used to create a practical advice record relating to a user defined property named WindRisk This provides a great deal of flexibility in defining conditions The elements are listed by category Double clicking a language element will insert it into the text box above A description of the selected language element including units of measure where applicable Check Condition Ve
157. perties can over ride those specified on the site or function set see Using Properties Clicking the Crop History button opens the Crop History form This is used to record historical events applied to a crop i e silviculture which is known to have occurred between time of planting and time of the crop s measurement If specified crop history is merged with the regime during simulation Use this form to specify the operations that have been performed on the stand at known dates O Forecaster Regime New Regime ene New Regme 300 Index Allows various calculations to be performed using the 300 Index Calculator button calculator Using Crop data always works with a stem list If stam list data is not 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Crops provided by the user then at the time of simulation Forecaster generates an initial stem list for the simulation from information entered in the Whole Stand tab 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Crops Crop Measurements This topic describes detail on parameter definitions and their calculation as required for setting up crops Whole Stand This option allows a crop to be defined by a stand level summary consisting of average values and measures of spread Entering a crop at whole stand level still requires significant assumptions in order for Forecaster to derive a starting stem list Whol
158. ple language is used to define the Conditions It allows the use of a number of out of the box Forecaster variables for example Sitelndex MeanTopHeight PlantYear as well as any user defined variables for example a Forest name loaded as a property against each site This provides a great deal of flexibility in defining conditions For more information on editing and evaluating conditions see the Conditions section Content Tab Further details pertaining to the practical advice can be included in rich format for example diagrams photos charts etc as well as additional text In order to attach rich content advice it must first be saved in HTML format which is easily done for a Microsoft Word document via the Save As dialog 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 171 Forecaster v2 0 Practical Advice Save As Snow htm Web Page htm html The Content tab is used to embed an HTML or HTM file in a Practical Advice entity As shown below the top part of this form is a simple HTML viewer which shows the content of the HTML file currently linked to this Practical Advice record Practical Advice Nectria Name Nectria Title Infection by Nectria flute canker may occur following pruning Condition Title Infection by Nectria flute canker may occur following pruning Details Infection by Nectria fuckeliana may occur post pruning infection
159. prefixed Min Q1 Mean Q3 Max or CV refer to the minimum first quartile mean third quartile maximum and coefficient of variation of the named variable respectively Numeric fields are suffixed with their units The ScenariolD field contains a unique label for the scenario that can be used as a foreign key to records in other tables The combination of ScenariolD and Stand_Date is a unique key to each record The fields are ScenariolD Site_Name Crop_Namet Regime_Name FunctionSet_Namet Age_years Event_number Stocking_stems_per_ha MeanTopHeight_m MeanHeight_m 154 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Field BasalArea_m2_per_ha MeanTopDBH_mm Stand_Volume_m3_per_ha Mean_Annual_Increment_m3_per_ha_per_year QMeanDBH_mm Current_Annual_Increment_m3_per_ha_per_year HeightDiameterRatio MeanTopDos_mm RelativeSpacing MeanStemDBH_mm MeanStemHeight_m MeanStemCrownLength_m MeanStemDos_mm MeanCropHeight_m MinStemDBH_mm Q1StemDBH_mm Q3StemDBH_mm MaxStemDBH_mm CVStemDBH MinStemHeight_m Q1SternHeight_m Q3StemHeight_m MaxStemHeight_m CVStemHeight MinStemCrownLength_m Q1StemCrownLength_m Q3StemCrownLength_m MaxStemCrownLength_m CVStemCrownLength MinStemDos_mm Q1StemDos_mm Q3StemDos_mm MaxStemDos_mm CVStemDos MinCropHeight_m Q1CropHeight_m Q3
160. prise parts of several stands and so differ in age 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Introduction e A variety of in field mensurational techniques including bounded point and horizontal line plots and sub sampling for stem height and wood density are supported e Detailed stem quality description of measured stems in terms of their structure branching sweep and taper Cruiser also supports user defined quality feature definitions so that any stem section can independently be described and measured User defined variables can also be associated with whole stems plots and strata allowing very flexible assessment of potential yield e To support this flow of detailed measurement data from the field there are strong links with the data capture system supporting the export of designed assessments and the import of completed measured assessments As a simulation system Forecaster has the ability to model more fully the progress of a stem through the silvicultural regime that is applied to it This means that Forecaster can for example provide detail on internal structure such as defect core as a result of pruning In this section This section contains the following topics Topics Manual Organisation Terminology Navigation Start up Display Working with Entities Manual Organisation This new version of the Forecaster documentation has been structured and formatted in o
161. product being defined is a pruned log the Pruned checkbox at the top of the tab can be checked A Pruned Log Index constraint can be specified by also checking the Pruned Log Index checkbox and entering a minimum allowable PLI value If the Pruned checkbox is checked the rest of the tab will be disabled as it is not relevant for pruned logs Branch Information Source Branching information can be sourced from three places e No Model branching constraints cannot be specified e BIX Model only maximum branch size information is available and can only be applied for all branches no distinction is possible between live and dead branches e Branch Model all branch specification sections are available due to the richness of the modelled branching information Partially pruned Log For Partially pruned logs the minimum contiguous length of pruned material must be specified Maximum Branch Size The maximum allowable branch size can be specified in 2 ways e as an absolute value mm or e asa of log SED If the branch information source is set to branch model then both these methods can have different branch size limits applied for live or dead branches Minimum Branch Angle In order to avoid spike branches a minimum branch angle constraint can be set The angle is measured from the branch to the upper side of the stem If some spike branches are allowed in a particular log specification then a maximum number of branches
162. r as in STANDPAK and ATLAS Cruiser many functions can be added directly by users and will then be available via the Function Set entity In this section This section contains the following topics Topics Setting Up New Function Sets Using Properties Model Availability 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Function Sets Setting Up New Function Sets Species Sets The Add button allows other models and functions to be specified separately for each Species Set Species Sets must first be defined by grouping one or more species from the Species List This allows a Function Set to be defined for a range of species groupings which have some unique models but share a common growth model Radiata D fr Species Set D fir Stem Shape ey 36 36 Branch Model NONE a BIX Model KnowlesDFir cn Properties Tree Volume T able Properties er Tree Taper Table Breakage Table Wood Quality Properties Properties Properties Acoustic Velocity None Density Model None Heartwood Model None H bbb be Ok Cancel Apply Help A Note Any Properties required by models will be listed see Site Properties and Crop Properties and those set via the Function Set can often be over ridden by those on the Crop or Site see Using Properties 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Functi
163. r v2 0 Cutting Strategies Cutting Strategies A Cutting Strategy contains a number of log products grades that are considered for production when the strategy cutting pattern is applied to the stand This simulates the cross cutting instructions that a harvesting crew uses when producing logs from felled stems v Cutting Strategy Default Dom Name Default Dom Cutting Cost Bucking Mode Log Product Definitions m if Description 0 1 Maximum Yalue Priority List Pie elk Default domestic strategy 7 grades Order Name 0 iF P2 1 2 L1 L2 Fields and Buttons on the Cutting Strategy Form Field Button Description Domestic large pruned Domestic small pruned Large small branched sawlog Med small branched sawlog Large large branched sawlog small sawlog pulplog Price 138 134 98 80 78 74 36 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Priority Max Stem 9 O o Priority Priority Add X Remove Ok Cancel Apply Help Function Name Description A name and description for the Cutting Strategy Cutting cost The cost of making a sawcut This is indicative only but can be useful in forcing the bucker to favour cutting long logs over shorts of the same product Bucking Mode Two types of bucker are available e The Maximum Value bucker optimises the set of logs cut from each stemPiece to return the maximum possible value
164. r v2 0 Regimes Thinning Events Two types of Thinning Events are available Waste Thin and Production Thin Waste Thin Event The Waste Thin Event form is used to specify the extent of the thinning and which stems are to be thinned If any stems in the stem list have been pruned then the simplest option may be to thin all unpruned stems otherwise a thinning target must be specified along with the stem order see Stem Ordering process Available target types are e Removed Stocking e Removed Basal Area e Residual Stocking e Residual Basal Area Waste Thin Event Stem Thin all unpruned stems Selection Toa Residual Stocking 400 stems ha Order Stems By Fewest Pruning Lifts Strict Random Order Order 0 9 Ok Cancel Apply Help Field Button Function Thin all unpruned Click to have all unpruned stems in the stemlist thinned For the first two fields select an options from the drop down list either Residual or Removed and either Stocking or Basal Area In the last field enter the required target value in either stems ha or m ha Select required ordering option from dropdown list see Stem Ordering Strict Random Order Set the position of the slider to specify the required degree of Randomness used by the simulation to determine the application of stem ordering 128 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Regimes Forecaster v2 0 Production Thi
165. rator i e gt lt or lt gt from a second drop down list and finally 3 Entering the value s of the variable in one or more text boxes Advanced mode allows more complicated conditions to be entered and additional variables to be used in conditions It is Off by default but can be enabled via the Edit Regime in Advanced Mode check box at the bottom of the form When in Advanced Mode conditions are entered directly into a text box Editing Events To create a new event click on the lt Click to Create New Event gt cell in the bottom row of the grid then from the menu select the type of event that you wish to create An event specific form will be shown in which the event s details can be entered To edit an existing event double click the cell containing the event Note that Plant events always appear at the top of the regime and they cannot be moved or copied A context menu of relevant options can be displayed by right clicking a condition or event cell All options in the context menu are also available using keyboard shortcuts shown to the right of each menu item Cut and Paste A row or cell can be moved using Cut and Paste i e by pressing Ctrl X to cut the selected row or cell and then pressing Ctrl V to paste the row or cell which has been cut Similarly a row or cell can be copied rather than cut by pressing Ctrl C rather than Ctrl X When pasting an event it will be inserted immediately before the event
166. rder to deliver information in a manner that has been proven to facilitate adult learning e The Introduction section describes the fundamentals of Forecaster e The Projects section describes Projects the work units of Forecaster how to analyse them access its results e The next eight sections describe in more detail all of the entities that need to be set up and managed in order to analyse a Project e The last sections describe specialised Forecaster tasks and features that are used less frequently Manual Conventions Conventions used by this manual when describing a procedure are as follows e Italics refers to a field name e Bold refers to a button or key e File Exit refers to a menu option 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Introduction Terminology The following table describes the terminology used in this manual and in Forecaster s forms Description BA Basal Area the sum of sectional areas of all living stems at breast height expressed in square metres Combination A set of one of each of the Forecaster entities Site Crop Function Set and Regime This may define either just one scenario or multiple scenarios if the Regime includes multiple Cutting Strategies and or multiple clearfelling ages Commands A combination of an event condition and an event as specified in the Regime entity A Regime command consists of 1 an event condition that defines when the ev
167. re world class and deliver value to FFR investors FFR was established in 2007 and initially consolidated the activities of the former research cooperatives Douglas fir Eucalypt Stand Growth Modelling Site Management and Plantation Forest Management At the same time environmental and harvesting research programmes were formed to put a renewed focus on these aspects of forestry sector research FFR has a board of directors comprising industry and science representatives and is managed by a Chief Executive and a Business Support Manager Scion as the forestry sector s CRI is the primary research provider to FFR Our research programmes are organised under four themes e Radiata Management e Environment amp Social e Diversified Species and e Harvesting amp Logistics Each of our themes is led by a Theme Leader and a Technical Steering Team comprising a good balance of industry and science skills The role of the Technical Steering Team is to provide input from a science and industry perspective into the direction of the programme ensure the programme is relevant and aligned with industry needs and to assist with the deployment and uptake of the research outcomes by the sector A real success with this approach has been shaping the direction of research programmes focusing on the outputs required by industry and increasing the amount of buy in by industry members to the programme 100 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limi
168. red directly An adjusted density index will also be calculated if a value has been entered for the GF Plus Wood Density trait of the planted stock 3438 On clicking Generate the 300 Index growth model is used to estimate the basal area and mean top height at age three From these values the Whole Stand tab of the crop form is filled out using starting point equations that predict the maximum DBH and the variation about the mean DBH and conditional mean height If a value has been entered for GF Plus Wood Density it is attached to the crop as a property Convert to Stem List Clicking the Convert to Stem List button will generate a corresponding stem list and populate the Stem List tab The stem list is generated so that the stand stocking basal area and mean top height are conserved and the variation in DBH and height are approximated DBHs are generated around the quadratic mean DBH using the specified coefficient of variation and the maximum DBH Stem heights are generated around the height DBH curve passing through mean top DBH mean top height using the conditional mean height from the curve and the oefficient of variation around this mean 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Crops Stem List Provided data is available measured crops should be entered as stem lists wherever possible This ensures that simulation is based on real known data rather than being inferred from basic st
169. required by some of the models in the regional function sets see below Site _ Regime Function Set Regime tab Condition Date Jun 1985 Plant 1000 0 stems ha Specie P RAD GF Rating 14 Date Jun 1990 Measurement Whole stand Stocking 950 stems ha Basal Area 1 87 m2 ha Stem Basal Area CV 10 Mean Top Height 5 m Stem DBH Max O mm Crop Age gt 8 Thin to waste to Residual Stocking of 500 stems ha order from Smallest DBH x Height 3 0 Crop Age gt 30 Clearfell using Default Dom Stop lt Click To Create New Condition lt Click To Create New Event gt See Regimes for more detail on setting up regimes Function Set tab JA default function set can be generated for a given site and regime by clicking the Generate Default Function Set from Site button This will create an appropriate function set based on the selected location s region and the species specified in the regime s Plant event see Regional Function Sets 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Field Button Function Yield Generator Interface applicable Growth Growth Model GM300Index Properties Monthly Adjustment 2 Stem Form Sweep Model Generic L Properties Carbon Sequestration Carbon Model C_Change _ Properties Species Set Radiata Stem Shape Tree Volume Table
170. ributed to the cell within which the specified location falls However a representative value for a larger area such as a stand is typically of more interest To enable this a sample area is defined centred on the location of interest and the returned value is based on the values of the cells that fall within that area as a weighted mean The area in hectares to be used for sampling is specified in Tools Options General as SpatialSurfaceSampleArea see System Settings A larger area will return more generalized and stable values whereas a smaller area will return values that are more accurate but more variable An area of zero hectares will result in a single point sample 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Crops Crops A Crop is used to define the characteristics of the trees for which growth is to be simulated A stand in the usual sense is a combination of a particular Crop growing on a particular Site The separation of Site and Crop allows the growth of a given Crop to be simulated on multiple Sites Standard Crops Example Crops are available for use in tutorial exercises In this section This section contains the following topics SettingUpCrops Crop Measurements _ _ Stem Basal Area Coefficient of Variation Calculation nitial Crop Examples 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Crops Setting Up Crops When a new Crop is
171. rifies that whether the Condition is valid The results of the check are reported to the left of this button and if the position of the error can be detected i e the Line and Column are not set to 1 then double clicking on the error will position the cursor in the text box at the start of the error 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 177 Forecaster v2 0 Conditions Evaluating Conditions Short Circuit Evaluation To minimize the slowdown caused by evaluating Conditions every month during a simulation short circuit evaluation is used This means that the whole expression may not need to be evaluated depending upon the results of initial expression For example in the following Condition Crop Species P Rad AND Site Latitude gt 43 5 AND Crop MeanHeight gt if Crop Species is not equal to P Rad then the Condition will always be False no matter what the results of the values of Site Latitude and Crop MeanHeight might be Consequently those final 2 expressions need not be evaluated and in fact are not Given the above it is recommended that variables which don t change through time and therefore can be evaluated quickly should be listed before any which do change through time Conditions Involving Equality For variables used in a simple equality expressions e g Crop BasalArea 4 5 if the variable is increasing with time expression will evaluate to True for the first month in
172. rithms behind this were developed from historical PSP measurements and young age silvicultural quality control measurements This feature is available only to members of the FFR Radiata Theme 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Crops G A Generate a Start Age Crop P RAD 300 Index ogam Crop Plant Year 2012 Plant Month June B Plant Stocking 1000 stems ha Start Age Stocking 950 stems ha GF Rating 14 Site Site Sites BoP Medium Altitude 250 m Latitude 38 South Site Index 27 m GF Rating of 14 300 Index 28 m2 ha yr Density Index 419 kg m Stow Gente Aine ceneate cant eo Enter the date of planting and the planted stocking the GF Rating of the tree stock planted will be set to a default initial value of 14 The stocking at age 3 will be initialized with 95 of the planted stocking on first entry into this field this can be over written if desired Initial values for the productivity of the planted site are obtained by browsing and selecting a Forecaster site The altitude and latitude fields as well as the site index and 300 index are populated from the selected site If there are several height indices in the site s list the one closest to the planted stock s genetic quality is used If the genetic quality measure is different then the highest value for radiata pine will be returned Genetic Improvement of Starting Point Crop An adjustment f
173. rn zero To make the system more robust the volume calculations now support a safe mode In this mode all calculations on small stems are performed on a stem within the range of the equations data minimum stem and the results are scaled down to apply to the target stem This mode is used by default The scale factor is the ratio of the DBH2Height of the target stem to the minimum stem To illustrate the differences two sets of regimes were run The first set used volume and taper equation 237 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Soching stersha Tota Ghanding Votame mha Sse sRSesHsesssas 23 3 Soching terete oBRESRRTBSR REESE J Totat Standing Volume m a SSeeuS esas esses 2 3 8 Models Available a 3 amp 8 8 8 Blusu MA mhana Bees 3 g a s Top Hoge m DA w sugges MA mhala wan 2 2 X 3 Sne incex 2 Om 200 Incax 28 OmIMayr Age years 10 6 2 2 Age years Site index 27 Gee KO Inder 28 Omamarye Figure 1 Crop Development Demo 1 safe Demo 2 extrapolated The crop development is shown in Figure 1 No change is seen in mortality or the development of basal area or mean top height However the total standing volume starts more slowly when the stem volumes are calculated safely FS Demo 1 This is visible in both the volume and MAI curves before age 15 When the two volume curves are
174. rom the BIX for the candidate log and checked against this constraint The maximum branch function above is used when the specification is checked 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available BIX Models 1 Inglis Cleland 1981 The Inglis Cleland model is available to all users BIX is calculated for the standard log height classes in each diameter class as follows BIXi b1 b2 IS b3D b4 H b5 SI b6D SI b7A FS where BIXi BIX for standard log height class IS Initial stocking sph D DBH at age 20 cm H Predominant mean height PMH at last thinning m SI Site index m A Age of removal years FS Final stocking sph The coefficients are Coefficient Log height class 1 2 3 0 3006 3 8658 4 6623 2265 3 0 0 0 0 0 0423 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0582 0 09 0 0 0 0 The following restrictions are placed on the equation e For the first log IS gt 600 sph e For the third log and above if FS gt 200 sph A lt 30 years e For the third log and above if FS lt 200 sph A lt 35 years e If no thinnings H 20 0m e 9 0m lt H lt 28 0m e Minimum BIX gt 2 5 cm SED adjustment uses the following coefficients cO 0 3915 c1 0 6085 The Maximum branch size function uses the following coefficients dO 1 036 d1 0 6085 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available 2 Knowles Kimberley 19
175. s allowing different costs to apply for the same event type depending on when it actually occurs A set of ages is a comma separated list of age specifications each of which is either a single age or an age range For example 1 3 5 represents the ages 1 3 and 5 2 5 represents the ages 2 3 4 and 5 2 5 7 represents the ages 2 5 6 and 7 All ages should be specified as integers whole numbers The units for each cash flow item must also be specified the default units are ha but some Harvesting Costs can meaningfully be expressed in m and some Event costs e g Planting and Thinning in stem The actual amount of a cost or revenue item can be negative 162 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 163 Forecaster v2 0 To add a new item click the Add button under the relevant costs or revenue pane A new row will appear in the pane allowing the item s values to be entered To edit an existing item click on the cell that is to be changed and change its value To remove one or more items select the item s to be removed by clicking on its row header the left most column and click the Remove button Use Ctrl click or Shift click to more easily select multiple items for removal General Costs These cos
176. s parameters and properties for the site are automatically determined from underlying geo spatial surfaces and then presented in the data grid on the right hand side of the selector form Selecting a Location Using the Spatial Interface Follow these steps to select a location using the spatial interface Key Point Select the There are four coverages based on the LINZ New Zealand appropriate Small Scale Topographic Maps 1 500 000 series Choose coverage the coverage appropriate for the Site s location Navigate to the The following functions allow you to move to the required location required location on the map e Zoom In Out use the Zoom slider or the mouse wheel e Move use the Pan buttons or left click and drag to pan the view over the map e Select a location left click the mouse Note that the location s accuracy is unlikely to be better than 200m 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Action Sites Key Point Select the Site Left click the mouse to select the current location for the Site This will look up values on each of the spatial surfaces for that location or an area surrounding it see Sampling Area and then display them in the data grid Note that the surfaces may have gaps in them for example urban areas water bodies and mountains may not return values but they should return values for any potentially productive sites Also some site properties do n
177. s property s name has been changed slightly to distinguish it from a density index value All existing instances of the property on existing Crops Sites and FunctionSets and those imported from CSV files will have their names updated automatically The FFRDensity2011 model can be used with either actual stand average density measurements as described above or with a density index value looked up from the density index surface using the Site s location see below and under Spatial Site Selection The density index value is automatically set as a property on all Sites and should not be manually altered or deleted This model uses measured values preferentially whether set as properties on Crop Site or FunctionSet but if none are available then the Site s density index value is used No default values are specified on the model via the FunctionSet amp Density Model Properties FFRDensity2011 I E pol Z 4 Start Point OWBHD from surface kg m3 Age years OWBHD measurement kg m3 Age years OWBHD from surface kg m3 Age years Outerwood breast height density index and index age Property Name Description OWBHD from surface kg m3 Age years A density index value looked up from the density index surface and the index age always 20 The WQ BasicDensity1 model also uses the Site s altitude and NZMG northing 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Foreca
178. s that provide the information required for a simulation Five of these have no pre requisites that is they don t contain any other entities so they can be created in any order However both a Function Set and a Log Product Definition require a pre defined Species Set Similarly a Cutting Strategy requires pre defined Log Product Definitions and a Regime will require a Cutting Strategy with associated Log Product Definitions unless the Regime has no production thinning or clearfell events A Project is defined as a combination of Site Crop Function Set Regime and Report Option entities No Prerequisites Report Options 1 Prerequisite Log Product Definition 2 Prerequisites Cutting Strategy 3 Prerequisites 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Projects Projects Projects are simply ways of bringing together the component entities crops sites etc and running the simulation to produce information about the state of the crop and its yield A project does not contain its component entities but just refers to them so that the entities can be re used in any number of projects In this way a function set for example could be applied to a large number of crops with the simulations all described in different projects Any changes made to the function set will affect all projects that refer to it Projects can be constructed as a combination of sites crops function sets and reg
179. set Carbon Where a simulation has included the modelling of carbon sequestration its economic analysis will include the consequent costs and revenues The sequence of modelled annual values of total biomass as appear in the AnnualCropCondition table are used to derive an annual increment the difference between this year s value and last year s Typically that increment will be positive and an instance of revenue is applied at that age But when the increment is negative for example when there has been a production thinning or a clearfell event then a cost is applied at that age Carbon Discount Rate This is the rate at which all carbon costs and revenues will be discounted back from the age at which they apply to the starting age Note that if the Carbon Discount Rate has a different value from the Base Discount Rate it is not possible for an Internal Rate of Return IRR to be calculated because no single solution can be reached when solving IRR for more than one discount rate In such cases the IRR column in the Economic Analysis table will be blank Carbon Price This value is used to determine the value of an item of carbon cost or revenue from the the corresponding annual increment of modelled biomass 160 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Crop Rotation The Rotation setting determines what initial carbon value should be used i e at age 0 For a first rotation where the lan
180. site selection This is an example of a completed site amp Forecaster Site BoP Medium Name BoP Medium Description Medium site quality Location Latitude 38 South Altitude 250 0 m Select Location from NZ Map Longitude 176 5 East Show Map Shin Site Indices Height Indices Height m Species GF Rating Base Age Years Dominance Measure Add x Delete Volume Indices 300 Index 28 00 s 400 Index 0 00 500 Index 0 00 Volume MAI m2 ha annum Properties x caei ay Hep A set of standard sites will be available providing regional estimates of Site Index and 300Index based on New Zealand PSP data In this section This section contains the following topics Topics Setting Up Sites Spatial Site Selection Setting Up Sites Sites are used to define the physical characteristics of the piece of land and its potential for tree growth A Stand in the usual sense is a combination of a particular Crop growing on 2 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Sites particular Site The separation of Site and Crop allows multiple alternative Crops to be simulated on a given Site When a new Site is created an empty Site form is displayed A amp Forecaster Site New Site D E Lo 2 So Name New Site Description Location Latitude 2 South Altitude 0 0 m Select Location from NZ Map Longitude
181. ster v2 0 Models Available Between stem variation The WQ BasicDensity1 model incorporates variance among trees such that for example for a predicted stand average disk basic density of 400 kg m3 95 of trees will have a basic density value of between 358 8 and 445 9 kg m3 regardless of position on the tree and before allowing for variation due to DBH The FFRDensity2011 model also models inter tree variation the wood density of trees within a stand is normally distributed with a coefficient of variation of 6 46 and is not related to tree diameter 3 Outputs When a Density model is selected the following values will be output in result tables Result Table Values LogTrace values for each log Mean Density LogSummary values for each Log Weight oven dried per ha Product LogYield values for each Log Weight oven dried per ha min mean max Product and standard deviation Minimum mean log density a minimum threshold for the mean density value of a log can be used as a constraint within a log product definition see Understanding Log Product Definitions but note that no such constraints should be used when the None model is selected If StemPiece Details is selected in the Standard Charts tab of Report Options the details of the predicted density values can be displayed in the StemPiece Viewer 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Heartwood
182. t The Master Species List SICOS E ESA EA E EE EEE AE E EAE E E AAAA Setting Up Sites Spatial Site Selection Geo spatial Surfaces LG fs eee R A A E RT A A E R rer eter EA er A REES Setting Up Crops Crop Measurements 300 Index Calculator Stem Basal Area Coefficient of Variation Calculation Initial Crop Examples FUNCTION SOUS oriei a tence eee eee ee ee Setting Up New Function Sets Properties Models Available Growth Models Height Age Site Index Models Monthly Adjustment Tables Volume and Taper Equations Breakage Equations Branch Models Branch Index BIX Models Sweep Models Forking Models Stiffness Models 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 10 11 14 15 18 22 23 26 28 29 29 31 31 34 36 37 38 42 50 54 55 59 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 71 72 77 81 85 87 Microfibril Angle MFA Model 90 Spiral Grain Angle SGA Models 91 Density Models 92 Heartwood Models 95 Carbon Model 96 Contacts for Models 99 RepiME S oeeie eE E ta ph aa ARTEEN AEE Rate ete ian 102 Regime Forms 103 Creating a New Regime 110 Stem Ordering 112 Stem Selection Examples 115 Pruning Events 119 Pruning Behaviour 122 Using Forecaster to Manage Pruning Behaviour 126 Thinning Events 128 Log Product Definitions aeaea a aaaea Oe aaa RPE ORI 130 Creating a Log Product Definition 130 CULLING Straterles intcnrnumawaminianionn E EEE R lain 135 Creating a New Cutting Strategy 137 Rep rt Optio
183. t Event This is the Plant Event screen into which the starting conditions of the Crop are entered Initial stocking must be specified and the Species entered from the list a Full Name Botanical Name Description Black pine Longleaf pine Maritime pine Patula pine Scot s pine Loblolly pine Foxglove tree Kahikatea Miro Halls totara Matai Totara West white pine Ponderosa pine Strobus pine white pine Pinus monticola Pinus nigra ssp unknown Pinus palutris Pinus pinaster Pinus ponderosa Pinus patula Pinus strobus Pinus sylvestris Pinus taeda Paulownia tomentosa Podocarpus dacrydioides Podocarpusferrugineus Podocarpus hallii Podocarpus mixture Podocarpus spicatus Podocarpustotara i an an a Measurement Event A Measurement Event represents the condition of a Crop at the start of the simulation It can be based on a Stemlist Measurement a Whole Stand Summary or a Stand Subset Summary see Crop Measurements 106 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Regimes Amma Measured Whole Stand Stocking stems ha Whole Stand Stem List Quadratic Mean DBH mm Generate Start Age Crop Basal Area ha m2 ha _ Convert to Stem ist Stem Basal Area CV Mean Top Height m Stem DBH Max mm Stem Height DBH CV Pruning Event See Pruning topic for more detail Thin Event Se
184. t_m weighting_stems_per_ha PrunedHeight_m Lift_Length_m Lift_o0S_mm Lift_DOSHt_m LiftDOSmMaxBrnch A 177 8 19 2 50 2 79 0 00 o 0 00 0 Beeper a ARAROWVO HIN EEEN teeta evel br ta N E N in a N Ua e ooooooooooo 90000000000 No Details OK Scrolling out to the right will show why those stems could not be pruned 126 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Regimes Message Detail i Nov 2009 Age 5 5 Unable to reprune all pruned stems Repruned 353 85 of a total of 383 84 pruned stems Reas onNotPruned F Insufficent green crown remaining to prune stem Highest cluster which leaves at least 4 0 m green crown is at 4 19 m Current Insufficent green crown remaining to prune stem Highest cluster which leaves at least 4 0 m green crown is at 4 19 m Current Insufficent green crown remaining to prune stem Highest cluster which leaves at least 4 0 m green crown is at 4 57 m Current Insufficent green crown remaining to prune stem Highest cluster which leaves at least 4 0 m green crown is at 4 44 m Current Insufficent green crown remaining to prune stem Highest cluster which leaves at least 4 0 m green crown is at 4 44 m Current Insufficent green crown remaining to prune stem Highest cluster which leaves at least 4 0 m green crown is at 4 19 m Current Insufficent green crown remaining to prune stem Highest cluster which leaves at least 4 0 m gree
185. ted Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Solid Wood Innovation SWI www wqi co nz Solid Wood Innovation SWI is a research consortium that builds upon the initial research conducted by WAI Shareholders cash injections are matched by NZ Government funding via the Foundation for Research Science and Technology The focus of SWI is to create value for it s shareholders around 26 companies in the area of solid wood processing The value proposition for shareholders is in three areas e Increased manufacture of appearance related wood products targeted at export markets e More efficient manufacturing through yield optimisation systems e Greater energy efficiency and reduced water useage in wood drying Our History SWI commenced operation 1 May 2009 It was formed from the realignment of WAI Ltd the first consortium established in NZ in Feb 2003 and which focused on the development of tools and technologies for segregating standing trees stems logs and lumber based on wood quality features WAI invested around 12 million NZD over 6 years and was considered a success by its investors stakeholders and sustained a focus on radiata wood quality R amp D in Australia and New Zealand Having achieved much of what it set out to do stakeholders in WAI supported a substantial shift in focus for the company and with the introduction of new shareholders from the wood processing sector SWI was formed CEO Keith Mackie PO Box 1127 Rotorua 3040 New Z
186. ted to users only when relevant i e when certain conditions of simulation meet pre defined rules For example if pruning P radiata in the lower South Island a warning about risk of Nectria infection would be shown identified with a light bulb icon within the Message Viewer 168 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 E ATLAS Messages Forecaster 1 8 0 11 Practical Advice HETER Warning Fatal eine Suppress Duplicates 5 Sj All Messages 4 Combination 1 Crop Site Southle C Creating modelled stand 2 Command 1 Date Jan 2005 E Growing to condition E Event 1 Plant S Command 2 Date Jan 2010 Growing to condition 2 Event 1 Measurement 4 Command 3 Crop MeanTopHeig E Growing to condition ey Event 1 Prune 2 Event 2 WasteThin S Command 4 Crop MeanTopHeig E Growing to condition 2 Event 1 Prune 24 Event 2 WasteThin S Command 5 Crop MeanTopHeig 2 Growing to condition 2 Event 1 Prune E O Command 6 Crop Age gt 30 Growing to condition 24 Event 1 Stop rN a a Message Sep 2010 Age 5 511 Pruned 449 89 stems ha Mean lift DOS 124 10 Regression fit failed trying an asymptotic fit Oct 2011 Age 6 653 Pruned 449 66 stems ha Mean lift DOS 126 43 Level of 26 693m is greater than tree height of 26 693m Diameter is zero by definition Level of 15 5788300704081m is greater than
187. tems ha order from Smallest Pruned Height 0 0 Date Jul 2008 Measurement Stem list Stocking 400 0 stems ha Basal Area 8 8 m2 ha Mean Top Height 12 1 m Number of Stems 20 GF Rating 18 Use Stand Area False Date Jul 2006 Prune 300 stems ha order from Largest Pruned Height 0 0 with Maximum Pruned Height m of 4 0 Minimum Green Crown Remaining m of 0 2 Minimum Lift Length m of 1 8 Thin to waste to Residual Stocking of 300 stems ha order from Smallest Pruned Height 0 0 Crop Age 25 Clearfell using Default Dom Stop Create New Condition Click To Create New Event Edit Regime in Advanced Mode ook cance sappy Help This grid is used to edit regimes in both Forecaster and Yield Generator It is also used when editing a crop s history in Forecaster in which case only conditions containing a date or age can be specified Only a single condition or event can be selected at once However a whole row can be selected by clicking the row header the blue cell immediately to the left of the row s condition cell The widths of the columns can be changed by dragging the divider bar between the column headers The following table describes the fields and buttons in the Regime form and their usage Field Button Function Name A Regime must have a Name which is unique within its containing Description folder It may also have a Description useful in helping users decide whether
188. ter than or equal to one this is a multiplier used to scale up the size of the branches ona cluster which has been selected to contain large branches Default values for these properties are 0 05 and 3 0 respectively these values should result in most stems containing several large branched clusters Use the values 0 0 and 1 0 to revert to the behaviour of v4 0 Note BLOSSIM v4 model outputs should be treated as preliminary as further amendments to BLOSSIM are required to capture other changes in branch development that occur with changes in branch cluster frequency For this reason BLOSSIM v4 has been made available alongside the previous version v3 2 i e both appear in the FunctionSet form s list of available branch models where suitably licensed The latest version is the model named Blossim and the previous version is the model named Blossim3 Thus existing FunctionSets will use the new model BLOSSIM Model Properties Whereas BLOSSIM v3 had only one property the branch modelling region BLOSSIM v4 1 requires values to be set for several new properties These can be set via the Properties form for BLOSSIM in the FunctionSet maintenance form as shown below though some may be more appropriately set on either a Crop or a Site see under Properties f Branch Model Properties Blossim l Ksh Ermy e32 4 Crop Breeding Value Branch Habit GF Plus Branch Habit 0 3094 4 Model Large Branch Probability 0 05
189. ter v2 0 Introduction Menus Key Points e Press the Delete key or e Right click and select Delete Expand Collapse a__ Left click on a folder s expansion button in the Tree folder View Pane to display its subfolders Click on its collapse button to hide all of its subfolders View a folder Left click on the folder in the Tree View Pane to display its contents in the List View Pane Show folder options Right click on the folder Relevant options and commands associated with that folder are displayed The following are descriptions of the menu commands and associated Toolbar buttons Drop Down Description Options Open Opens a selected item New Creates a new item in the selected group folder New Group Creates a new sub group in the selected group Exit Exits the program Refresh Refreshes groups folders and entity names from the database Use this to synchronize your view with other users accessing the same database Opens a selected item for editing Copies selected item to clipboard and deletes original Item can then be pasted in a new location Copies an item for pasting to another location with Paste Moves or copies an item marked with Cut or Copy Deletes an entity after confirmation Note The Edit Menu offers standard Windows editing features that can be used to manage folders and entities These are also available using the mouse right click Note that entities that are
190. ter v2 0 Models Available Monthly Adjustment Tables These tables list the proportion of annual growth that has occurred by the end of each month Three measures of growth are included e mean top height e basal area e stem diameter Scheduling is often based around height growth so this value is used for most applications The tables are derived from experimental data and so do not allow for year to year variation in growing conditions or long term changes in climate As an example the following is the monthly growth adjustment table Table 2 public domain Basal Area 0 109 0 096 0 065 0 034 0 035 0 060 0 077 0 093 0 101 0 107 0 110 0 113 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Volume and Taper Equations Volume equations are used to predict the total inside bark volume of the stem from measures of breast height over bark diameter and stem height Taper equations predict volumes of stem sections and inside bark diameter at any level from ground level to the stem height Compatible equations are constructed so that the sum of the volume of any complete sequence of stem sections is equal to the volume predicted by the volume equation A library of these equations models are available for selecting from when constructing a function set Equations are usually specific to a single species or species group and are often applicable to
191. tered in Rotorua with satellite offices in Christchurch Wellington and Auckland Scion Te Papa Tipu Innovation Park 49 Sala Street Rotorua 3010 Private Bag 3020 Rotorua 3046 New Zealand Tel 64 7 343 5899 Fax 64 7 348 0952 Email enquiries scionresearch com Web www scionresearch com Contact Dr Brian Richardson Group Manager Forest Science 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available ATLAS Technology www atlastech co nz ATLAS Technology is a software development business unit of Scion with a team of business analysts software engineers software testers support and client service managers ATLAS Technology has the vision and the capability to develop software tools spanning the entire forestry value chain e Support email software support atlastech co nz e Freephone 0800 786 285 NZ only e Phone 64 7 343 5584 e Facsimile 64 7 343 5679 e Web www atlastech co nz e Physical Address 99 Sala Street Rotorua New Zealand e Postal address Private Bag 3020 Rotorua 3046 New Zealand Future Forests Research Limited www ffr co nz Future Forests Research is an industry controlled company established collaboratively by the forestry sector and Scion to improve the engagement between industry and research Its objective is to raise the profitability and sustainability of the forestry sector by delivering research outcomes that are relevant to industry a
192. the maintenance form for content u Cutting Strategy New Cutting Strategy Name New Cutting Strategy Description Cutting Cost o44 Bucking Mode Maximum Value Priority List Log Product Definitions Order Name Description Priority Priority X Remove Cancel Apply Help Enter a Name and Description Enter a name and description for the new strategy Note that the name can be changed at any stage from within the List View Pane Enter a Cutting Cost Enter a value representing the cost of making a sawcut Enter the Bucking Mode The Bucking Mode can be set to either Maximum Value optimising or Priority List 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 137 Forecaster v2 0 Action Cutting Strategies Key Point Add the required Log Product Definitions Set the Print Order for each product e Click Add which will display the product selection form Pe Ok EYSTE o9 Product Definitions ES HEA Default Domestic eo geur gor PL Pulp eos LU 510400 3A Default extended grades P P P P P P P Select a Log Product Definition C PoP C P10P C pap C Pep C PsP C Pulplog C STR10 C STR12 v Cancel Help e Select one or more Log Product Definitions e Click Ok to add the selected products Use the paired Order buttons to make any changes to the selected product s Print Order setting For Priorit
193. the containing folder Description A description that helps identify the Function Set Stump Height The height above ground level at which the trees will be cut during the felling phase of a simulation Properties buttons Where available this button brings up a form that allows relevant properties for the associated model to be added edited or removed See Using Properties for further information on Properties and Model Availability for information on the models currently available and the properties that each requires E button Show Hide Species button Displays a form for selecting a model or table from a list of all those available for that model table type Clicking on a column header allows the items to be sorted on that column In the form s lower pane details of the selected model or table are displayed For example for the Height Age Table lt gt Height Age Table PEDER ModelName Species description P rad AK CLAYS P fertilised Shula 1986 33 P rad RO NZFP 1982 34 P rad RO Interim Pumice Plateau KGM3 1987 35 P rad CA Canterbury Foothills and Plains CANT Lawrence 1988 36 P rad SD SOUTHLAND Law 1988 37 P pat East Africa Malawi D Alder 1975 39 D fir South Island D fir SIDFIR 1990 40 P rad Nelson Marlborough Law 1988 4 D fir DFCNIGM2 Central North Island Liu Xu 1990 4 Prad Timherhelt North Island _Aurlair et al 1991 Height age model 32 This model is available
194. the location and vitality of every branch whorl and the size and angle of every branch in each whorl 7 It can also grow the branches forward through time BLOSSIM versions With Forecaster v1 10 an updated BLOSSIM model version 4 was included BLOSSIM v4 allows users to input the GFPlus branch habit score or branch breeding value These are measures of branch cluster frequency and enable the model to vary the number of branch clusters on the 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available stem for example is the seedlot long internode or multinodal Changes in branch cluster frequency may indirectly affect other branching characteristics For example it is generally perceived that long internode seedlots have larger and steeper branches and lose their tops more easily than a more multinodal seedlot Because branch cluster frequency along with branch diameter and branch angle influences internode length the current changes to BLOSSIM will allow the user to better examine the trade offs between growth and clear cutting potential With Forecaster v1 13 BLOSSIM was updated to v4 1 which introduces two new model properties in order to more realistically model the presence of large branches They are 1 Large Branch Probability A value between zero and one that indicates the likelihood that a cluster will include large branches and 2 Large Branch Scale Factor A value grea
195. this value is set to 85 To adjust this to fit your own circumstances an appropriate value could be derived from a representative sample for example a pre harvest inventory from a comparable area simulated through a clearfell harvest event Total Recoverable Volume divided by Total Standing Volume should 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available provide a close estimate of this variable NeedleRetentionScore This is the mean number of years that needles are retained By default this value is set to 2 1 which was estimated as an acceptable average by Kimberley amp Beets 2008 28 Note that this variable has a relatively minor effect on the total carbon altering the variable allocates carbon differently between the foliage in the above ground live biomass pool and the fine litter pool where it subsequently decays To adjust this to fit your own circumstances individual trees in a representative area could be scored for needle retention and scores averaged for the stand this is done by counting the number of more or less complete needle age classes retained in the lower third of the potential green crown 2 i e if there are 2 years worth of needles then the score would be 2 Trees affected by Dothistroma or other diseases affecting needle retention have a lower needle retention score perhaps down to around 0 5 for significant infection Trees grown in drier regions tend
196. tialise button is selected Forecaster Project Example Project ee DER Name Example Project Description Report Options Silvi Scheduling ie V List of Combinations Site Crop Function Set Regime Sites IFS demos From PSP summary Otago Farm Crops VMan VMan treated Function Sets Regional S outhland Regimes Clearwood Sites IFS demos From PSP summary Otago Forest Crops VMan VMan treated Function Sets Regional S outhland Regimes Clearwood Sites IFS demos From PSP summarySouthland Farm Crops V Man Man treated Function Sets Regional S outhland Regimes Clearwood Sites IFS demos From PSP summarySouthland Forest Crops VMan Man treated Function Sets Regional Southland Regimes Clearwood Add gt Delete Copy Initialise Ok Cancel Apply Help 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 The following table describes the fields and buttons in the Combinations form Field Button Function Projects Initialise button Line item Click the Initialise button to generate or update the list of combinations that is based on the entities ticked in the entity selection view Each line is equal to one combination of Site Crop Function Set and Regime Editing a combination Double clicking on an entity in a combination displays a list from which a new model or parameter may be selected Add button Delete button Clicking this button adds a new combinati
197. ting Started doc available from Forecaster Support page of the ATLAS Technology website for instructions on installing the software acquiring a licence and creating an initial database Uninstalling Forecaster 1 Open the Control Panel from the Settings menu on the Windows Start menu 2 Double click the Add or Remove Programs icon 3 Select Forecaster and click the Remove button to uninstall 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 193 Forecaster v2 0 Contacts Contacting Scion Software Support Support email software support scionresearch com Phone 64 7 343 5584 Facsimile 64 7 343 5679 Web www scionresearch com Physical 49 Sala Street Address Rotorua 3010 New Zealand Postal address Private Bag 3020 Rotorua 3046 New Zealand Phones and email are monitored during standard NZ business hours 194 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 195 Forecaster v2 0 References 1 Maclaren J P 1993 Radiata pine manual FRI Bulletin No 184 Forest Research Institute Rotorua 2 Goulding C J 1995 Measurement of trees In Forestry Handbook pp 104 107 New Zealand Institute of Forestry 3 Palmer D Cown D Kimberley M amp Mckinley R 2011 Modelling radiata pine wood density in relation to site climate and genetic factors Part 1 Density Surfaces FFR Report No RO63 R
198. tion page 02 htm 30 Beets P N Kimberley M O amp McKinley R B 2007 Predicting wood density of Pinus radiata annual growth increments New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science 37 2 241 266 31 Kimberley M Cown D McKinley R 2011 Modelling radiata pine wood density in 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 197 Forecaster v2 0 relation to site climate and genetic factors Part 2 Modelling within stem density Unpublished FFR Report No R064 NZ Forest Research Institute Ltd 32 Drew T J and J W Flewelling 1977 Some recent Japanese theories of yield density relationships and their application to Monterey pine plantations Forest Science 23 4 517 534 33 Kimberley M O and van der Colff M Improvements to the 300 Index growth model FFR Technical Note Unpublished Future Forests Research Ltd 2011 in prep 34 Kimberley M Cown D and Mckinley R Modelling radiata pine wood density in relation to site climate and genetic factors Part 2 Modelling within stem density FFR Report No RO64 Unpublished NZ Forest Research Institute Ltd 2011 35 Eggleston N 1992 Comparing the range of regional tree volume and taper tables Report No 26 Stand Management Research Cooperative 36 Gordon A D amp Budianto M 1999 A 3 point stem volume and taper equation for radiata pine Report No 66 Forest and Farm Plantation Management Cooperative 37 McKinley R 2013
199. total of 383 94 pruned stems 4 Sep 2009 Age 5 15 Unable to reprune all pruned stems Repruned 24 99 of a total of 383 91 pruned stems i Oct 2009 Age 5 32 Unable to reprune all pruned stems Repruned 62 48 of a total of 383 87 pruned stems 4 Noy 2009 Age 5 5 Unable to reprune all pruned stems Repruned 353 85 of a total of 383 84 pruned stems Dec 2009 Age 5 61 Pruned 383 81 stems ha Mean lift DOS 162 66 4 Jan 2010 Age 5 65 Pruned 383 80 stems ha Mean lift DOS 166 00 4 Feb 2010 Age 5 7 Pruned 383 98 stems ha Mean lift DOS 165 27 3 Mar 2010 Age 5 76 Pruned 383 86 stems ha Mean lift DOS 169 43 i Apr 2010 Age 5 81 Pruned 383 85 stems ha Mean lift DOS 171 92 OHOHOOHODHHHHHHDHHHH To view more details on why the pruning was not able to be successfully completed for any given month first press the amp button and then the Details gt gt button on the following dialog Message Detail oE DER Feb 2009 Age 4 7 Unable to reprune all pruned stems Repruned 0 00 of a total of 384 00 e J pruned stems oa ox _ The stem list is displayed and shows the stems which are not able to be pruned in the dummy pruning event as well as those that can be including their resulting pruned height lift length DOS etc lt Message Detail Nov 2009 Age 5 5 Unable to reprune all pruned stems Repruned 353 85 of a total of 383 84 pruned stems a DBH m Heigh
200. ts C Species Sets HO Regimes HO Log Product Definitions HHC Cutting Strategies Name Projects Forecaster Demo 1 4C Report Options Description Screenshots for Forecaster Manual Combinations Crop S5ite Function Set Regime Crops Demol Sites BoP High Function Sets Central North Island Regimes Demol Crops Demo2 Sites BoP High Function Sets Central North_Island Regimes Demol Crops Demol Sites BoP Medium Function Sets Central North Island Regimes Demol Crops Demo2 Sites BoP Medium Function Sets Central North Island Regimes Demol ReportOptions Report Options Demol 1 items selected Example Procedure to Simulate a Project Action Key Point Open the Projects In the Tree View Pane click on the expand button next to folder the Projects Master Folder View the Demo folder In the Tree View Pane click on the Demo folder Select a Project In the List View Pane click on the Project Forecaster Demo 1 to select it Run the simulation Click on the Simulate button The selected Project will then be analysed displaying a progress bar to indicate its progress lt gt 70 Simulating Project Projects Example Project Combination 1 of 1 Crop Demo1 Site Auckland Clays FunctionSet Auckland_Clays Regime Regime A Command 5 of 6 Growing to MeanDOS gt 175 mm If the simulation is successful the Report Manager is displayed allowing the results of the simulation to be
201. ts are produced in PDF format Report tables will be automatically created where they are required to generate the standard reports and charts that have been selected Additional report tables can also be selected for generation Report Options Main form 4 Forecaster Report Options Demo kaka Ex Name Demo Description Demo report set generates most reports Standard Reports Standard Charts Report Tables Batch Mode Output Report Name Run Report Silvicultural Detail P Economic Analysis Economic data discounted annual costs and revenues a 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 139 Forecaster v2 0 Report Options Field function The following table describes the fields and tabs in the Report Options form Field Tab Function Name Description A set of report options must have a name A description is useful so that users can more easily decide whether reports are appropriate for a particular simulation Report Chart Table The name of the pre configured report chart or table Name Standard Reports Lists a small number of standard reports that are available in PDF tab format e Silvicultural Details Report e Log Yield Report e Economic Analysis Report The reports are only available if their corresponding tables have also been selected in the Report options See Available Standard Reports for examples Standard Charts tab Lists available standard charts See A
202. ts are simply applied at each of the specified age s Annual Costs These costs are applied every year from the earliest age of stand management to the latest age of stand management inclusive Regime Event Costs Each of these costs is associated with a particular type of Regime event such as a Planting or a Waste Thinning which is selected from the dropdown list in the Event Type field The cost will be applied only when such an event occurs AND if the cost s specified age s includes the age at which the event actually occurs An age offset can also be specified so that the cost is applied not at the actual age of the event s occurrence but offset from that age by the number of years specified either positive or negative For example a site establishment cost could be entered against the Planting Event but with an age offset of 1 years indicating that it would occur one year prior to planting Some costs such as Planting can be specified in units of stem Note that these costs are applied at the truncated integer form of the age at which the event occurs for example if a Waste Thinning occurs at age 7 3 years then any costs associated with that event will be applied at age 7 plus any offset specified Harvesting Costs These costs are applied only when a Harvesting Event occurs The cost is applied when the event occurs AND if the cost s specified age s match the age at which the event occurs These costs may also h
203. ts differing and of separating o 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 value of improvements The initial land value is applied as a cost at the age of earliest stand management and the final value as a revenue at the age of latest stand management see below To model lease hold land set the initial and final land values to zero and enter land rental costs as an annual cost Non planted Area This is to allow for unplanted land such as roads and fire breaks It is expressed as a proportion of the planted area and is applied to the initial and final land values to increase them by the specified proportion in order for the initial land cost and final land revenue to represent the total land area i e both productive and non productive For example if the non planted area is 0 05 5 of the planted area then the actual initial and final land values used in the economic analysis will be 105 of those specified in the Economic Settings Age of Earliest Stand Management This is the age to which all cost and revenue items are discounted It can be specified directly or can be derived from other settings i e the earliest age of all General costs and any Planting related costs including any offset If there are no such costs defined a value of 0 will be used Note that the latest age of stand management is also derived it is the latest of all General and Clearfell costs including any off
204. tute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Message viewer with warnings hidden EE ATLAS Messages Forecaster 1 5 1 0 File Options i Information y All Messages E Combination 1 Crop Demol Site B f Creating modelled stand Command 1 MeanDOS gt 170 mn 2 Growing to trigger 2 Event 1 Prune 2 Event 2 WasteThin 3 Command 2 MeanDOS gt 170 mn 2 Growing to trigger 2 Event 1 Prune Command 3 MeanDOS gt 170 mn 2 Growing to trigger 2 Event 1 Prune 2 Event 2 WasteThin E Command 4 Age gt 30 years 2 Growing to trigger H 0 Event 1 Clearfell QO Modelling sweep C Modelling forking C Felling Harvesting with cutting st 2 Bucking C Event 2 Stop lt m 46 messages showing Projects HETER Q B a Error Fatal Include Subfolders Suppress Duplicates Jun 2005 Age 4 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 135 12 Jul 2005 Age 4 05 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 138 20 Aug 2005 Age 4 15 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 141 07 Sep 2005 Age 4 25 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 144 20 Oct 2005 Age 4 4 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 146 71 Nov 2005 Age 4 55 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 149 30 Dec 2005 Age 4 65 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 152 59 Jan 2006 Age 4 75 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift DOS 155 60 Feb 2006 Age 4 85 Pruned 360 00 stems ha Mean lift D
205. tute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Practical Advice automatically create and populate a files folder when a Word document is saved as an HTML file For detailed instructions on how to generate an HTML file using MS Word please refer to the tutorial Generating Practical Advice HTML files available from the ATLAS Technology website Attachments Tab The Attachments tab can be used to embed a copy of one or more files in a Practical Advice entity It is recommended that files used to create the HTML content are attached to the Practical Advice entity By doing so the content can be easily updated in future by saving the attached file editing it regenerating the HTML and then updating the content and re attaching the file It is recommended that large files i e greater than 10MB are not attached The following table describes the functions of the fields and buttons in the Attachments tab Field Button Function File Name Lists file names currently attached to the Practical Advice entity Details For each currently attached file lists when the file was uploaded from where and by whom Add Opens a dialog for you to select the file s you wish to attach Files can also be attached by dragging and dropping the file s or folder s onto this tab Remove Deletes the highlighted file s from the Practical Advice entity Save Saves a copy of the highlighted file s to a nominated folder 2014 New Zea
206. ue of MFA is lt 15 and the following values will be output in result tables Result Table Value s LogTrace value for each log Mean microfibril angle Percent of volume that does not exceed the 15 threshold LogSummary value for each Mean of all logs mean microfibril angle Log Product Mean of all logs percent of volume not exceeding the 15 threshold LogYield values for each Log Min mean max and standard deviation of all logs mean Product microfibril angle Min mean max and standard deviation of all logs percent of volume not exceeding the 15 threshold 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Models Available Spiral Grain Angle SGA Models General Spiral Grain Angle is the orientation of fibres tracheids with reference to the longitudinal axis of the tree stem It is a very influential factor on end product performance because low spiral grain is a leading cause of twisting in solid wood SGA Models Implemented The currently available spiral grain angle models are e FFRSGA The FFR spiral grain angle model for radiata pine 9 It predicts a value of spiral grain angle at a point specified by its height up the stem as a proportion of the stem s total height and radially outwards from the pith by ring number This model is available only to members of the Radiata Management Theme of FFR e None used when no modelling of spiral grain angle is required
207. unction Menu Bar e File e Open allows a previously saved message list to be opened and viewed e Save as saves the current list as an XML file this can sometimes be required by the support staff at Scion to help in troubleshooting a problem e Print to PDF saves current messages as a PDF file e Options the Print display may be changed to landscape These are a series of buttons that toggle the specified type of message between being displayed and not being displayed See the screenshot at the end of this topic for an example e Information toggles all information messages e Warning toggles all warning messages e Error toggles all error messages e Fatal toggles all fatal messages Include Subfolders Toggles messages from all sub folders By default when a folder is selected to display messages relating to that stage of the simulation all messages within sub folders are also displayed By clicking the Include Subfolders button the sub folder messages are not displayed Suppress Duplicates hides all duplicated messages showing just the first instance Displays Message Detail popup Message Detail TE DAR Feb 2009 Age 4 7 Unable to reprune all pruned stems Repruned 0 00 of a total of 384 00 LD pruned stems ae om _ The Details gt gt button can be clicked to display further information Sierra PE Ee bob habla hs hala t 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Insti
208. unction S Age gt 30 30 31 07 20 Cutting Strategies Projec 29 06 2010 Sites BoP Medium Crops Radiata GF18 im Function 5 Age gt 25 25 31 07 20 Cutting Strategies Projec 29 06 2010 Sites BoP Medium Crops RadiataGF18 Regim Function S Age gt 30 30 31 07 20 Cutting Strategies ooog to give eight scenarios In this section This section contains the following topics Setting Up a Project Run Simulations i r Message Viewe 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Projects Report Manager 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Projects Setting Up a Project A new Project is created by selecting the folder in which the Project is to be created then either right clicking in the List View Pane or clicking on the New button on the toolbar The New Project form will be displayed 4 amp Forecaster Project New Project eco aE acae Name New Project Description Report Options m Economic Settings E ListCombinations Function Sets Sites Crops Regimes BS Fence ee Ooo Plantation Management Co op DemoData HC Public Domain Demo Data The following table describes the fields and buttons in the New Project form Field Button Function Name Description Fields for displaying and editing the unique name for the project and a
209. utting Strategies DemoData Demo Strategy Clearfell Age s 25 30 35 40 Summary Information Earliest Age of Stand Management 1 years Area in Addition to Planted Area 0 10 ha ha Base Discount Rate 7 0 Initial Land Value 1 980 ha Carbon Discount Rate 7 0 Final Land Value at Cutover 1 980 ha Financial Summary Discount Stumpage Breakeven Rate ha ha Price m 533 57 40298 77 89 98 549 94 54185 44 90 69 5131 64 66169 70 67 13 2903 57 77884 29 80 39 146 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Economic Analysis Report th FFR Forecaster Cashflow Analysis ee So Se eS ae Revenue Units Unit ha General Fencing 1 150 00 150 00 Land Initial Land Value 1 1980 00 1980 00 General Animal Control 0 3 00 2 80 General Spot Spray 0 50 00 46 73 Planting Planting o 250 00 233 64 General Animal Control 1 3 00 2 62 General Animal Control 2 3 00 245 General Animal Control 3 3 00 2 29 General Animal Control 4 3 00 2 14 General Dothi 4 50 00 35 65 General Animal Control 5 3 00 2 00 General Dothi 5 50 00 33 32 Pruning 1 Pruning Lift 1 5 900 00 599 71 Waste Thinning 1 Thinning 1 5 200 00 133 27 General Dothi 6 50 00 31 14 Pruning 2 Pruning Lift 2 6 800 00 498 20 General Dothi 7 50 00 29 10 Pruning 3 Pruning Lift 3 8 1250 00 679 92 Totals 4464 97 0 00 Clearfell at 25 yrs Clearfell Demo Pruned 25 23610 59
210. vailable Field Description The following table describes the functions of the fields and buttons in the Sweep Model Properties form Field Description Region Count This is a list of the probabilities of finding zero one two Probabilities swept regions on the stem The example above indicates 40 of stems will have zero swept regions ie straight stems 10 will have 1 30 will have 2 and 20 will have 3 The mean and standard deviation of the distribution of proportional deviation The example above shows a mean deviation of 0 5 of the DOB at the end of the swept region The distribution of these proportional deviations is considered approximately normal Region Deviation Distribution Region Length The mean and standard deviation of the distribution of the Distribution length m of swept regions In the example above the standard deviation is 2 metres and mean 4 metres The distribution of these lengths is considered approximately normal Region Type These are the probabilities of the different types of sweep in Probabilities the following order Normal Sweep normal sweep deflects away from a straight axis then rejoins the original line of the stem axis Imaginary straight p centre line Centre line of the Tree gt Bend The bend results in a change in direction of the stem s centre line A bend often results from the phototropic straightening of the tip of a leaning stem
211. vailable Standard Charts for examples Standard Reports Standar iS Report Tables Batch Mode Output Chart Name Show Chart Annual Crop Condition DOS Development Log Summary Pruned Height Distribution Stand Table StemPiece Details SSSssisis Log Summary activates Log Yield Graph in the Report Manager Report Tables tab Lists available report tables See Available Report Tables for examples Standard Reports Standard Charts Report Tables Batch Mode Output Table Name Populate Table ScenarioDetail v AnnualCropCondition v MonthlyCropCondition PruningDetail v ThinningDetail Vv StockingDistribution v StemListDetail v LogSummary v LogYield 7 LogTrace EconomicAnalysis PSPPlot PSPStem Note The Scenario Detail table is always produced even when that option is not selected Batch Mode Output Refer to Batch Mode Output later in this section tab Minimum Chart and Report Selection If no charts or reports are selected then the following are still produced e Scenario Detail report 140 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Report Options e Log Yield table provided there is a clearfell event In this section This section contains the following topics Topics Available Standard Reports Available Standard Charts Available Report Tables Batch Mode Output Stem Piece Details Chart System Settings 2014 New
212. vice Overview This feature is available only to members of the Radiata Management Theme of Future Forests Research Limited FFR The Practical Advice module has been implemented to bring to the attention of users those issues that should be included in their decision making but aren t directly modelled by Forecaster For example a Forecaster simulation may suggest that a heavy thinning produces the highest Net Present Value which may encourage a change to silvicultural regimes However it can t tell you if the site is prone to high winds and that subsequently windthrow is likely following heavy thinning This sort of contextual knowledge which guides the decision making process will build up over time and can often be one of a company s greatest assets However this valuable institutional knowledge is often not captured anywhere except in the memory of staff and consequently can be lost with staff turnover The Practical Advice module provides a means of storing and making available such non modelled advice Two types of advice are supported e System advice based on robust published science A library of system advice will be updated through future releases of Forecaster e User defined advice this is input by users into your own company database It may include advice based on experience or knowledge within your company or even business rules While a large volume of advice may be stored in the database it will be presen
213. will be inserted into the same command as the first prune event and after that event This is indicated by the upwards pointing arrowhead A Regime Regime 3 Name Regime 3 Description Condition Event Date Jul 2000 Plant 850 0 stems PRAD Thin to waste to Rest Stocking of 400 stems ha_ order from Smallest Pruned Height 0 0 Date ul 2004 Prune 320 stems ha order fro gest DE ght 0 0y with Meximunr Prone Heig of2S M unvaree Date Jul 2006 Prune 300 stems ha where at least 100 are crop stems order from Largest Pruned Height 0 0 with Maximum Pruned Height m of 5 0 Minimum Green Crown Remaining m of 3 0 Minimu Thin to waste to Residual Stocking of 400 stems ha order from Smallest Pruned Height 0 0 m Date Jul 2008 Measurement Stem list Stocking 400 0 stems ha Basal Area 8 8 m2 ha Mean Top Height 12 1 m Number of Stems 20 GF Rating 18 Use Stand Area False m Date Jul 2006 Prune 300 stems ha order from Largest Pruned Height 0 0 with Maximum Pruned Height m of 4 0 Minimum Green Crown Remaining m of 0 2 Minimum Lift Length m of 1 8 Thin to waste to Residual Stocking of 300 stems ha order from Smallest Pruned Height 0 0 Crop Age 25 Clearfell using Default Dom Stop To Cre Click Edit Regime in Advanced Mode ox cancer Apply Help 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited 105 Forecaster v2 0 Plan
214. wlog industrial grade and pulp Follow these steps to create a new Log Product Definition Step Action Key Point 1 Open the Log e Right click on the appropriate folder or sub folder Product e Select New a new form is opened with the default Definition form name New Log Product Definition amp Forecaster Log Product Test Large Sawlog oe BAX Name Structural Large Sawlog Description Lbrae sawloa 3 lenaths Dimensional Shape Branching Wood Property Indicators Small End Diameter Under Bark SED Minimum 300 mm Maximum 800 4a mm Large End Diameter Under Bark LED Maximum 800 mm Default Price 30 4 Lengths Minimum Length Maximum Length Fixed Length i rm 74 74 v Trim Allowance os m Species Set Species Set Radiata o x Jf cme Jf aw Jf e Enter a Name and The name must be unique for the folder containing the Description Log Product Definition The optional description is a short phrase describing the log product 130 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Enter constraint data Log Product Definitions Key Point There are four constraint type tabs in which you can constrain your log grade characteristics e Dimensional e Shape e Branching e Wood property indicators Refer to the next table Constraint Information for details of
215. y stems in the stem list this only applies if the crops information level is set to Stem List and Is_Crop_Stem variable in the list is TRUE The Is_Crop Stem attribute can be viewed in the main display by selecting the crop the fields contained in the stem list file are shown in the preview pane as illustrated below gt ATLAS Forecaster 1 6 0 0 Entities DB C22326 Forecaster Reports DB local ForecasterReports oa BAL Eile Edit View Tools Window Help B Qa 2 f A A New New Group Edit Refresh Cut Copy Paste Simulate Entities Name Description Current St Informatio Month Plan Planted Sto Species EE Projects C DemoData GHC Sites UIFS demos A Sr on Function Sets 4 Demo1 FPCWA For SwanPi 890 WholeStand i 7 Species Sets a Example pre P3 no Is_Crop_Stem INY 895 83333331 StemList GHC Regimes 4 Example pre P3 with Is_Crop_Stem INY 895 833333 StemList GC Log Product Definitions Ee Example with Is_Crop_Stem 573 8095238 StemList GHE Cutting Strategies 4 Example without Is_Crop_Stem 573 8095238 StemList GC Report Options 4 KANG_144_1 INV 716 666666 StemList 4 Man treated Exported fr 833 250000 StemList 4 WIRI_167_4 Pi2 751 666666 StemList ry Nane Crops Example with Is_Crop_ Stem Description Planted PlantYear 2003 PlantMonth July PlantStocking_stems_per_ha 667 Species P RAD Current StartYear 2008 StartMonth August WholeStandStocking_stems_per_
216. y List bucking only set the Priority and log limit for each product Save changes Use the paired Priority buttons to make any changes to the selected product s Priority setting In the product s Max Stem field enter the maximum number of logs of this product that can be cut from any stem Click Ok to save all changes and exit to the Forecaster GUI or click Apply to save changes and stay in the maintenance form 138 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Report Options Report Options Because Forecaster models a large amount of information the information about the crop as its growth is simulated is not retained unless it is needed This approach helps to improve the performance of the system by producing only the information that the user needs to compile yield tables schedule silvicultural events or compare different regimes Each set of report options describes the types of information that will be produced from one simulation that is when a project is analysed see Projects Within the simulation results for one or more scenarios are generated and all the information is keyed by the scenario ID e Simulation reports are available from within the Report Manager following a successful simulation e Basic information about each scenario is published in the Scenario Detail Table e Pruning events are covered by the Silvicultural Detail Table e Standard Reports and Standard Char
217. y occur following pruning Title Infection by Nectria flute canker may occur following pruning Details Infection by Nectria fuckeliana may occur post pruning infection can be common in the lower half of the South Island Infection levels may be managed by following these strategies Winter pruning should be avoided as this is known to lead to higher rates of infection e Incidence is also related to stub size with stubs less than 30 mm rarely associated with fluting Infection rates may be tempered by painting larger stubs with a barrier fungicidal compound such as Garrison Higher initial stockings could be considered in order to limit branch growth Reference Dick M A 2007 Forest Pathology in New Zealand No 23 Figure 1 Canker or flute associated with a pruned branch stub on the stem of Pinus radiata Photo credit Ensis Condition under which this advice is displayed in Forecaster Event Type Prune AND Event PreCrop Age gt 0 AND Site Latitude gt 43 5 South AND Crop Species P Rad Note that the information is merely presented for consideration of the risks it doesn t actually stop a regime from being simulated 170 2014 New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited Forecaster v2 0 Practical Advice Editing Practical Advice Practical Advice entities are grouped in folders and can be edited in a similar manner to other entities i e they may be cut copied and past

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