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Technial report on CHINA NFFS

1. 12 Model calibration Click model calibration to enter the state of parameter calibrating and display the state of calibration schedule After calibrating the final object function value is displayed in the column of object function value 13 Model verifying Click model verifying the system will verify the model and display the verified object function value in the column of objection function value 14 Calibration period After finishing selection of data the selected calibration period will be displayed in the column After finishing model calibration and model verifying click a verifying period to have the comparison between simulated process and observed process in the form of hydrograph in the column of calibrated results 15 Storing results After finishing model calibration if the calibrated results are satisfying click storing results to store the calibrated model parameters in the data base so as to be used for real time operational forecasting Chapter 5 6 7 Real Time Operational Forecasting Real time operational forecasting is to forecast the flood process in a future duration based on the flood forecasting schemes according to the latest real time rainfall and flood information The main functions include select forecasting stations single station forecasting river system forecasting optimization of forecasted results isohyetose area management and structured chart of f
2. ee TULL TOO ase Bate lise iher doratien Frim Clore 0O23 20 00 F singe 130 40 T Wats singe tage Historie highest 1 Real time rainfall process Click the menu of real time rainfall process with the left key of mouse to have real time rainfall process at the station im Set 71111700 H E Rainfall Coe a Poors oo sf E sf Co E Co E Co E 3 Sketch map of section stage Click the menu of sketch map of section stage with the left key of mouse to have the sketch map of section stage at the station Bel Time 2007 12 03 12 00 Stage 127 03 Warn 129 450 Guaranteed 131 00 Hichest vation of dike crest 3 1 3 Inquiry of Hydrological Factors at Rain Gauging Stations Click the rain gauging station on the map with the left key of mouse to have shortcut menus as follows Click the menu of real time rainfall process with the left key of mouse to have the real time rainfall process at the station w WEG 24439TOO iE E Time Rainfall Daily rainfall 2006 10 01 08 00 Fzo0e o8 14 08 00 2006 09712 02 00 tt aa a a R el E ne process Close tC 3 1 4 Inquiry of Hydrological Factors at Reservoir Stations 3 7 Click the reservoir station on the map with the left key of mouse to have shortcut menus as follows 1 Real time hydrologic process Click the menu of real time hydrologic process with the left key of mouse to have the real time hydrograph
3. Histori i Elevation of levee crown Historic maxit Elevation of levee cron Forecast Time Forecast time 2006 i0 10 1d 00 Forecaster Type stage 0 discharge 1 Eigenvalue 20 00 14 00 08 00 02 00 20 00 08 00 02 00 20 00 14 00 08 00 02 00 Flood peak 2006 10 3 10 4 10 5 10 6 10T 10 8 1079 1010 10ii 10riz etase Ss An EE 2008 10 10 20 00 Time Observed MH R Ly Flood peak recession 2006 10 07 08 00 ischarge 1810 Eesult description Tabular data 2 4 Real time and historic discharge process Click the menu of comparison between real time and historic discharge processes with the left key of mouse the system will display the time of historic data and the comparing curve between observed and historic discharge processes m Select historical Eg w aa7H 80115000 Historical flood hydrograph Data list Other duration Frint Close 08 11 14 00 stage 9 79 W Discharge 9000 l Warining stage Guaranteed stage Historic highest Historic maximum Elevation of levee crown mi 5 Real time and historic stage process Click the menu of comparison between real time and historic stage processes with the left key of mouse the system will display the time of historic data and the comparing curve between observed and historic stage processes a3 w Select historical Eg w d43 Comparison between historical and observed discharge data list Adjust histo
4. ADV SBBDEE CE SB OVI RAM SBSbEE F Se SECUREDRIVE RK 3 9F 225 liven BCR Sy zhou Aa Seas H RFA D KERF Ge txt x 5 The part of results displaying This part is used to display the comparison between forecasted process and observed process The default displays the attribute of model output that was set by a forecasting scheme If the forecasting scheme has been configured with the corresponding stage discharge correlation curve the system will automatically convert the stage or discharge corresponding with the calculation Click the check box of stage discharge or area rainfall to display the corresponding attribute process When it is necessary to display the information in a small time range press the left key of the mouse make a move and then loosen the key so as to get the selected time range If itis necessary to display the information in a large time range double click the left key 2 Area operational forecasting Area operational forecasting is to make successive operational forecasting for an area Click area operational forecasting to examine the attributes of the forecasting schemes in the selected forecasting area sO as to ensure that the forecasting schemes are established with hydrologic model and calculate duration length After examining enter the window of setting operational forecasting time so as to set forecasting time The start time is taken as 30 day
5. Stage he Di pela ga P Rainfall 01150001A i 3 Point rainfall Click point rainfall to have the rainfall processes of all the rainfall stations used for the area input in the form of list in the page bar In the list the black part has the observed rainfall the blue part has the future rainfall If there are errors of the observed rainfall or it is necessary to input future rainfall direct modification can be made in the list Click graph to have the window of point rainfall hydrograph so as to display and modify rainfall information in the form of graph This window is divided into 3 parts The first is the part of graph which displays rainfall time series and area rainfall time series of the various stations in the form of graph The second is part of list which display the rainfall time series of a selected rainfall station in the form of list The third is the part of control which is used to set displaying range and close window 1 The part of graph The upper of this part displays the rainfall time series of the various rainfall stations and the lower of this part displays the rainfall time series of area rainfall The displayed time range is from start time to end time of the forecasting The rainfall time series values before the current time are displayed in a blue inverse histogram The rainfall time series values after the current time are displayed in a yellow inverse histogram Once a duration rainfall of point rainf
6. is used to add new chart layer Select file of chart layer by using browse The file is Mapinfo format Input the name of chart layer set the type of chart layer and click OK to add the file to the corresponding type of chart layer in the system ier ae E m ah WA fd we Be Gore 8 The delete is used to delete the selected chart layer 2 8 Management of Forecasting Data 2 6 Management of forecasting data is used to manage 3 types of data including mesne forecasted results final forecasted results and model state The various types of the data will be retrieved according to 4 letter fields of data type station number forecasting scheme code and date As for every data set only the whole deleting can be made single data can not be modified data tyne ctatinn cde forecart echenme code Tim Feel ieuh hare ceal Piii 17 hr ts et an Ws o An Pineal Ene Forecast discarg pome Je oeie eTa nM L TE lA r EEA A 7 ooo Station eode Scheme ie Yon E ERI TE LO 03 h EGE OO eo y eade fie aan n bh zeni i a e KAE 3 Ri 2 9 Data Base Link The Flood Forecasting System runs based on 2 data bases 1 Real Time Rainfall and Flood Information Data Base which was developed with the standard of the List Structure of Real Time Rainfall and Flood Information Data Base SL323 2005 issued by the Ministry of Water Resources and is used to store the real time rainfall and flood information 2 Spe
7. the reservoir outflow relationship is the discharge at the Huangyjiagang Station R61802800 2 3 2 Scheme Distribution Click scheme distribution to have the window of scheme distribution Scheme distribution includes single station distribution and area distribution 1 Single station distribution Select a scheme selected the persons to be distributed and then click OK The red grounding of the person name means he she is the creator w Scheme Distribution Single station Select scheme 50100500 schemel scheme WHARE L ea PTAs A EAD RS coi ee SB 16E Ok EEF 2 Area distribution Select a scheme and the persons to be distributed and then click OKR so that all the forecasting schemes will be distributed to the corresponding persons w Scheme Distribution Single station Select area allocate to wiz allocation 2 3 3 Scheme Output Click scheme output to have the window of scheme output Select the exported forecasting schemes click export to have the window of setting the path of storing files and name and then click storage w Scheme output selected Scheme List Sta sta lec export PRP 1 i nfifsnew 3 Tm dem zai LEME imap E model H HAE xiangy pln wees H IRT E IRTEN T Scheme file t pln HUH 2 3 4 Scheme Input Click scheme input to have the window of scheme input Select
8. Direct parameter inputting These are the model parameters which can be directly determined and need not to be calibrated such as basin area The default of a direct parameter is 9999 Click direct parameter inputting to have the list of the direct parameters determined with the identifier of 9999 and then input the parameters in the corresponding input column 2 Range of default parameter If it is necessary to resume the default parameter range of the model click range of default parameter If it 1s necessary to determine some parameters with the method of manual test error determine a parameter in the range of the model parameters as a single value In this condition the system does not do automatic optimization of the parameters If it is necessary to make 6 5 automatic optimization of some parameters determine upper limit and lower limit of the model parameter range so as to get the best parameter by optimization When there is N behind the value of parameter range the system will determined the parameter as a full type parameter 3 Relation of default parameters If it is necessary to resume the relation of default parameters click relation of default parameters 4 State of default model If it is necessary resume the state of default model click state of default model 5 Methods of optimized calibration which include simplicity method and Rosenbrock method The only difference between the 2 methods i
9. Kx 0 5At _ K Kx 0 5At 2 K Kx 0 5At C C C 1 1222 in which K represents storage constant with time dimension x represents discharge proportion factor without dimension and A represents step length of calculation time It is known from Eq 12 21 when A t lt 2Kx Co lt 0 h has a negative effect on O2 so that negative discharge easily appear in the rise segment of the outflow hydrograph When At gt 2K 2Kx C2 lt 0 O has a negative effect on O2 so that negative discharge easily appear in the regression segment of the outflow hydrograph In order to avoid the irrational phenomena of negative discharge and ensure that discharge at up and down section has linear change in calculation duration and along the river at any time it is required to have gg At K ZHAO Ren jun 1962 suggested successive sub reach routing with Muskingum method which is to divide the routing river reach into N sub reaches and the relation between the parameters Kz xz of any sub reach and the original parameters is K Sa 1 2x X Nl Re n z The concerned equations are Eq 12 20 and Eq 12 21 However K and x in Eq 12 21 must be replaced by K and xz 6 5 2 Model Parameters 1 x Discharge proportion factor of sub reach which is an index reflecting channel regulating capability The value of x will decrease when there is a large distortion of flood wave and channel regulating capability becomes stronger
10. the map will remove to the location with the station as the center and the real time hydrograph of the station is gotten as shown in following National Flood Forecasting Iyin CFEC bagel Sele ee ee Pei FIAT EEL Fare Abh RE Bae Oo ge ee Far aneti Sterea Teale Feki isa lead infermacion Taly 4H amp 7 amp amp m E esi Pha y Ll 8 stam exceeding eas Fe Lizi Tr Tid Bum Free ran tamh be dP Ee aL Fires Fall aF ahve EX OR miki aw 14 00 amp Pires ne das am ark ee g neee BL EROSOE eo ap EE EOG OE L13 ba 00 ofS feed EEE 2 eet ieee i 2 rs ay Couey onan tae Peet Te nn i J P ad 7 F F This kind of operation can also be used for the options of reservoir stage exceeding the flood limit duration rainfall exceeding 30 mm the newest river flood information the newest reservoir flood information the newest rainfall forecasting warning list mesne forecasted results list and final forecasted results list Otherwise under option in the tool menu set can be made to inquire the data within a duration from now as shown in following Time Range stage exceeding river warning 2 Day Raroia Time M Min reservoir stage exceeding the flood it day limit duration rainfall exceeding 30 mm it al Day the newest river flood information jt Tay the newest reservoir flood jt information the newest rainfall forecasting warning l
11. 00 02 00 20 00 08 00 02 00 20 00 Flood peak 2006 10 3 10 4 10 5 10 6 10 T 10 8 10 9 10 11 10 12 atage 5 00m 4 2008 10 10 20 00 Time Observed WWR Ly Flood peak recession 2006 10 10 08 00 ere 3 OT Tabular data 06 10 12 20 00 O6 10 12 14 00 06 10 12 06 00 Click the option of tabular list at the bottom of the window with the left key of mouse to have the stage and discharge data of the station Click the option of Result description at the bottom of the window with the left key of mouse to have the description of the forecasted data of the station as shown in follows a 1 w far a TR Zoom in Zoom out Regress Exit Warming stage Guaranteed stage Historic lughest TT ne Baath qre y Hihi ia Elevation of levee crown Forecast Time Forecast Result aided AL 2008 10 10 14 00 Forecaster Type stage discharge 40 00 14 00 08 00 02 00 14 00 08 521 tJ2 00 20 00 14 00 08 00 02 00 20 00 2006 10 3 10 4 10 5 10 6 10 T 10 6 10 9 10 10 610 11 1o l2 Ei lue tine Cbserved Ry Ted peck 2006 10 08 08 00 stage 3 07 stage 5 00m 2006 1LO 1o 20700 Result description Tabular data il Flood peak recession Click the option of historic maximum at the top of the window with the left key of mouse to have the curve of historic maximum at the station EH TURAL Zoom in Zoom out Regress Exit Forecast Result nt are EFi TILE shee PRLS EOL EL Cee 3i
12. 2 Deleting station Click delete station the arrowhead cursor will change to hand cursor Select the station to be deleted in the main window to have the window of confirming deletion and then click 24 yes to delete the station Hational Flood Forecasting System Are you sure you want to delete T1111500 Hee station 3 Modifying station Click modifying station the arrowhead cursor will change to hand cursor Select the station to be modified in the main window to have all the attribute window of the station After modifying the attributes click modification If it is necessary to modify other stations select the concerned stations and modify the concerned attribute Click end to close the window Station code 71111500 select station l 71111500 Lo ren NETESE station name ERE FOGOOROO Oe FOGLOSOO AUL lf report rainfall FOTHOGOO TE TEE Station location TOSOOH5O seh Long 118 800000 TOSOOGO1 GK TOBOOBOO GEFI lat 27 517000 T0900250 GEC click map and obtain location Type C Rainfall C weirrsluice Channel E a s Ao C tidal stage f Channel flowt reservoir symbol 2 7 Map Layer Management Click map layer management to have the window of chart layer management All the chart layers used for the system are listed in the window Select all the settings of a chart layer to be modified 1 Attribute The option of visible is use
13. Atco Of 00 zi ao Sn a ae Wis Wis ik Da WE DF Da Wa IS ieS IWE igin 190 en 06 10 7 0 11 m00 11 64 MKT dool og Station Ke N 2 The part of list When it is a discharge station input there are only name and code of the station in the window When it is an area input there are names and codes of the defined hydrologic stations in the window There is a stage discharge time series list of the selected hydrologic stations at the bottom of the drag down window If it is necessary to look up the stage discharge series of a station select the station name in the window to display the series in the list There is a drag down window in this part for selecting hydrologic station When it is necessary to modify a stage discharge value please directly 7 6 modify it in the list Meanwhile the system will make a corresponding modification the in graph part 8 The part of control Drag the pull pole of proportion displaying to adjust the transverse time displaying range of the graph part The zoom point of the time range is the largest time in the left of the graph part Select stage or discharge in the content column for displaying the default is discharge When there appears flood peak at the station of discharge input and recession is kept during the lead time please make recession processing by using 4 methods of recession processing The box of recession processing provides 4 methods as follows recession coefficients fluc
14. Station 80115000 GR Point input 80113300 scheme schemel station type gauging f Rainfall Sequence Station c Station n Station t Resultant discharge Scheme 1 80113300 H1 O River RHOL1T S500 Scheme L Modification Delete w Hational Flood Forecasting System station codes 80113300 station vane Hl station type 0 18 2h Discharge Combination RBO113300 inflow outflow gate dam 2 Area input Select the corresponding area input in the drag down bar to enter the list of input setting In the case of the basin input 801150001A in Wuzhou forecasting scheme 80115000 there are station code station name and station type used for area rainfall computation in the list The defaulted number of 15 the stations includes all the rainfall stations hydrometric stations and reservoir stations in the basin that transfer rainfall data If it is not necessary to have a station a selection can be made and then click delete If it is necessary to add a station click add In the window of adding there is a list of stations in the basin that have not been selected If there is a station that has not been selected and also not in the window adding please modify the forecast and report terms of the station by using station management m Scheme attributes Scheme illustration Scheme attribute Input properties Scheme station Station 801 15000 2 Point input ONReeeene scheme schemel station
15. a point with the left key to move in any direction for modification the hydrograph around will have a corresponding adjustment After modifying the forecasted values during the lead time in the graph part the values in the list part will have a corresponding modification 795 i FH CEL MODU statism epeeartisesal Tarta IEJ Forecast scheme d AO E WSK i ren 200000 1A S85_3 b Leii A TSS B ESE i AP ened e E d Tete bo B rE do HH Scheme aput Tima eich ror hire Lead tins Bd i tet Stari a G Mie i EE ij wi ie See 25 15 Gist Hazal col eis en Fasl tide mdri Siora reralta Dari iise ELE aaa Clom Cdl idiot w ii fu Gers ooo Oe 12 Ob rot Glee iddi Saal Oe a Oooo 13 0800 13 14 00 0 13 Doron wid odin 06 14 00 00 wda 14 CER id Bo rot Cee HEA Ce 1 OS oe 0 15 14 90 I5 000 Geis 02700 ee wig 14 oo Ce io foo Wei arog Of 1T Ob ron model oo states Paint op oe ee a Sred O00 Te e Pe a A i a y a es i ec Sm piepe sle oos Jebel aed oe oa 2008 10 12 0a see gae 10 11 Oo idee 26 10 11 idigi 2 10 11 0h Do Hw FD ew woe A ee ee oe ee ii 16 B10 ga LE ge Damn y2 JS S a A IS LDE IOO 1013 gt feeit Siam Forani Binchi gu bhim 31 age Dimplay aypa i M Staa F lindwa Y Bainifell B01 LOLA Cee at Line EET Sonn SONU Pure SUE E UE iO EEEREN i Sees ag PENITE a a BEER GHAGHGGEPE EEE EBS TSTSSSGeaes a a Ld i 2 0 i 2 Om So of no
16. as river stage river discharge river stage discharge and reservoir inflow 7 Warning threshold The system has a function of forecast which is to set warning threshold of a forecasting scheme When forecasting values are over the threshold the system will give forecasters the concerned hint and warning The type of the values should be consistent with the type of scheme output 8 Scheme description This is a chief description of the forecasting scheme which will be restricted within 250 Chinese characters The content includes the source of forecasting scheme the used model method the main stations for the forecasting and condition of forecasting section 9 Name of stage discharge relation curve The system can automatically exchange stage and discharge by using the selected stage discharge relation curve 10 Name of X coordinate This is usually the name of X coordinate in a correlation diagram The X coordinate is forecasting factor 11 Name of Y coordinate This is usually the name of Y coordinate in a correlation diagram The Y coordinate is based factor 12 Types of Y coordinate Y coordinate is divided into two types of stage and discharge The concerned type can be selected according the correlation diagram 13 Stage discharge integration of Y coordinate In case that type of Y coordinate is stage the integration only has one group of station numbers In case that type of Y coordinate is discharge this integration has severa
17. at the station BENE Bem i an Real time hydrograph process ET ee ee l a f Real time rainfall process Stage and reservoir storage process Stage area capacity curve sketch map of section stage 2 Real time rainfall process Click the menu of real time rainfall process with the left key of mouse to have the real time rainfall process at the station 71110260 H EIL Moel Lily rainfa 2008 09 11 11 00 Closet 3 Stage and reservoir storage process Click the menu of stage and reservoir storage process with the left key of mouse to have the stage and reservoir process at the station 3 8 Data list Other duration Print Close 10 02 08 00 stage 56230 FF Storage Dead storage stage Limited stage in flood season Design stage I Check stage Elevation of dam crown 250 5 2006 9 11 4 Sketch map of section stage Click the menu of sketch map of section stage with the left key of mouse to have the sketch map of section stage at the station Bele 2007 12 3 8 0 Obs stage 257 21 Dead stage 244 00 Design stage 266 05 Check stage om of dam crest 60 00 3 1 5 Inquiry of Hydrological Factors at Weir and Sluice Stations Click the weir and sluice station on the map with the left key of mouse to have following menus ag Real time hydrograph process Forecasting process Modify station attributes Delete station
18. click copy to set the code of area boundary Because area input boundary is the file chart layer of MAPINFO form the system only allow the unique use at a time to make the operation When sketching area input boundary the system will lock the file Having finished the system will unlock the file After that other users can use this function system management Sethe Historic data processing Calibration Tools Real Time flood information Help Scheme Defining Circling Basin Manual circling Determination of Scheme Model Automatic creating Control Weight of Rainfall Station Basin copy scheming wizard 6 0 4 1 3 Determination of Scheme Model Model methods model parameters and model state used for every input definition of a hydrologic model forecasting scheme 1 Correlation diagram forecasting scheme Click determination of scheme model If the current forecasting scheme is a correlation diagram forecasting scheme there will be the window of inputting the parameters of the correlation diagram forecasting scheme which is mainly used to select the curves points and transmitting duration of the correlation diagram and input the corresponding locations according to the requirement Then click OK to finish the task mC SA ae PS A Fj 2 Hydrologic model forecasting scheme Click determination of scheme model If the current forecasting scheme is a hydrologic model forecasting model there will be the wi
19. correlation method and empirical unit hydrograph the rainfall of Fengjie Wushan Reach 60200B and Wushan Yichang Reach 60200C can also be routed to the Yichang Station to obtain discharge processes Q3 and Q4 by using the same methods Therefore the 4 discharge processes Q1 Q2 Q3 and Q plus each other equals the forecasted discharge process of the Yichang Station 60200 As a result the discharge forecasting scheme of the Yichang Station has 4 inputs ae om ra _ Ten eT i ae elea i fetes piain 1 aE NFA ere ae 7 oe pei pe Case 2 The forecasting scheme of the Xishan Station The Taihu Lake Basin is divided into 6 areas of which the rainfall will be calculated by using empirical regression equation to get the contributions A Z Z AZ AZ4 AZ and AZs for the stage at the Xishan Station The values plus the Xishan stage at that time equals the forecasted stage of the Xishan Station As a result the stage forecasting scheme of the Xishan Station has 7 inputs we a k 96s llo i a p i k a iT a PER Fe m E a k OAESL1E sr 3 T Sabet lt i soars 1 SeGS 110 GAITA 5 as a T Case 3 The stage forecasting scheme of the Shashi Station Hydrology Bureau of Hubei Province made the stage forecasting of the Shashi Station with the empirical correlation diagram according to the stages at the stations of Yichang Changyang and Lichengji As a result the forecasting scheme has 1 input Empirical
20. model System administrators have authority to make this kind of operation Adding model Click add to have the window for adding models Input model name with English letters or numbers without blanks Select the types of models There are 5 types including basin runoff yield and flow concentration model basin runoff yield model basin flow concentration model river flow concentration model and empirical model Select the storage paths of dynamic libraries Input model illustration If selecting the term of calibrative there will be an input window of default model files in which the default parameter file and default range file are the required files Select the button of corresponding file and open the file list to select the concerned file Click OK to store all the settings and finish the operation of adding model Click Cancel means that do not store settings and exit the window wa National Flood Forecasting System Veo ieee election of Forecasting Stations Forecastin w real time forecasting Lb model calibration Ares Resh AddFot User management d Model management Scheme management d otage Discharge Relation Curve Automatic forecasting Station management Map layer management Management of Forecasting Data Data Base Link Exit w Model management Model name model type Current new catchment flow conc catchment flow c Model 3 layers evapotranspiration Lag a
21. stage 2 8 Click the button of data list in the window of hydrograph with the left key of mouse to have the dialog box of data list a R 71111500 A Sel 10 10 09 00 10 10 08 00 10 10 07 00 10 10 06 00 10 10 05 00 10 10 04 00 10 10 03 00 10 10 02 00 10 10 01 00 10 10 00 00 10 09 23 00 10 09 22 00 Dll Catal eee ee ee ee a Click the button of other duration in the window of hydrograph with the left key of mouse to have the dialog box of other durations In the window of hydrograph click the start time with the left key of mouse horizontally move to the location of end time and undo the left key to have the dialog box of statistic flood discharge and obtain the flood discharge within the fixed duration m Select period of time Gtart 2006F 9 H19H 15 00 Bnd 200688 1010E1 oo __Cancel_ Zo im PRE 71111500 H E Data list Other duration Frint Close 10 02 17 00 stage 186 10 Discharge 3 arining stage Discharge Statis x ve Historic highest Historic maxin evee row Cross Section 2006 09 27 11 54 P End 2006 10 02 16 00 volume 0 03 hundred million eM Hydrograph can conveniently display the characteristic values of hydrometric station such as 185 8 2006 9 19 warning stages and guaranteed stages Click the box of characteristic value selecting in the window of hydrograph with the left key of mouse the concerned curve of characteristic
22. station code or selecting station The selected station is the selected station within basin boundary Its default is the station code of point input in the forecasting scheme Meanwhile interchange can be made between input station code or select station and selected station 9 by using the 2 buttons of gt and lt Otherwise map adding can be clicked to add any control point After setting the control points of basin boundary click OK to automatically create basin boundary according to the control points river system and three dimensional topography m Create automatically catchment boundary Station FAT select Area Select station Selected Station Oe ae 50708500 301025300 co eee so 700200 AT 20103800 80104700 30106000 G B010T020 BOLO FOO 30107900 30108000 80108800 30108900 30109600 30111500 501125300 F m OE St HE S AE a te E HES od m Input Code otation ocheme Name lg07 00200 Scheme6 71200400 A Areal Code 30115000 80607500 80614000 ta ABtiane Flood Porepapetise oapeske EVEL Ge Sheps Schama Ectakhithiag Migteris Gute precercing Calitwatien Tacks Beil Tiga feed infaeation Hilp fe 7 amp i a Be oe d S8lil dy j Select IF Cra Rew Beet Aven Bagh Lsi Ve IFI Pun Mra Pl Ha ligi eizi mre peat tT as 3 Basin copy Click basin copy to select the basin needs to be coped with mouse and then
23. type gauging Rainfall sequence Station c Station nj Station t al 801153360 L O Discharge 50113700 AFB Stage sta So11dd00 FEA Stage sta 50115000 2 Discharge BO605000 AAR Reservoir 0607500 A Discharge 0614000 28 Discharge sos0d500 ESR Discharge 0805000 BRA Discharge Delete Modification 1 A J 4 5 6 T G z Select station selectable muLti stations SOEOOS00 SOEO4A000 SOBOSS00 80619500 SOE 1400 SOE 100 8 Forecasting section outlet Select the forecasting section outlet in the drag down bar of input to enter the setting list of forecasting section discharge relationship This discharge relationship has a contrast with the discharge output from the forecasting scheme In the case of the Wangjiaba forecasting scheme the output is the wetted section discharge at the Wangyjiaba Station the corresponding observed discharge is the sum of the discharge at the Wangyjiaba Station 50101100 and Shangang Station 50101000 so that the discharge relationship of Wangjiaba forecasting section outlet is R50101100 R50101000 Otherwise if forecasting section is a reservoir station and forecasting scheme output is reservoir inflow the 1 6 forecasting section discharge relationship setting includes reservoir inflow relationship and reservoir outflow relationship In the case of the forecasting scheme of the Danjiangkou Reservoir inflow reservoir inflow relationship is the discharge at the Baihe Station R61801700
24. values will be shown in the window of hydrograph im PRUE 71111500 H E Data list Other duration Print Close 10 01 03 00 W stage 186 43 W Discharge 11 W Warining stage Guaranteed stage lw Historic maximum __ Elevation of levee crown Cross Section mi 192 0 192 39 19897 27 190 5 189 0 i 187 5 186 0 MULL 2006 9 19 2 Real time rainfall process Click the menu of real time rainfall process with the left key of mouse to have the real time rainfall process of the station 3 0 32 71111500 H E EB Rainfall hily rainfa_ 2006 09 13 08 00 2006 09 13 01 00 2006 09 12 23 00 2006 09 12 21 00 2006 09 12 20 00 2006 09 12 18 00 2006 09 12 14 00 2006 09 12 13 00 2006 09 12 12 00 2006 09 12 11 00 2006 09 12 10 00 Closet 2006 09 18 o1 00 5 2006 08 12 28 00 5 2006 09712 21 00 8 2008 08 12 20 00 5 2006 08 12 18 00 5 2006 08 12 14 00 5 2006 08 12 18 00 5 2006 08 12 12 00 1 5 2006 08 12 12 00 5 2006 08 12 10 00 5 3 Forecasting process Click the menu of forecasting process with the left key of mouse to have the forecasting process of the station EA TRIE Zoom in Zoom out Regress Exit Warining stage Guaranteed stage Historic highest Forecast Result BS Elevation of levee crown i anne ne Forecast time so08 10 10 14 00 Forecaster Type stage discharge l i n r z 1 1 Eigenvalue 20 00 14 00 08 00 02 00 20 00 14 00 08
25. will describe it in the form of red inverse histogram in the part of graph and automatically calculate area rainfall with the given method of calculating area rainfall 8 The part of control Drag the pull pole of the time range to adjust the transverse time displaying range of the graph part The zoom point of the time range is the largest time in the left of the graph part Drag the pull pole of the station number range to zoom the displayed rainfall station number of the graph part The window of area rainfall information displays the accumulative area rainfall in a time duration range Click the button of store and exit to store the modified rainfall information and close the window The button can not be used unless the rainfall data have been modified Click the button of exit to cancel the modification and close the window 4 Duration discharge Click duration discharge to have stage discharge process in a duration in the form of list In the list the black part is the observed process the blue part is the future process As for the observed process the system does not provide modifying function If there are errors modification can be made with other functions As for the future process modification can be made in the list Click graph to have the window of duration discharge hydrograph so as to display duration discharge information in the form of graph examine the correctness of the real time stage and discharge d
26. 0 3 forecasting scheme with which a hydrologic factor will be calculated with another factor on the correlation diagram without using hydrologic modules Hydrologic model forecasting scheme A forecasting scheme needs to use hydrologic forecasting modules is called as hydrologic model forecasting scheme Hydraulic forecasting scheme A forecasting scheme using hydraulic modules to make forecast is called as hydraulic forecasting scheme Comparing with hydrologic model forecasting schemes that take single station as object to make management hydraulic forecasting schemes will manage numerous sequential sections At present this kind of forecasting scheme management is under development Runoff forecasting scheme A forecasting scheme to make forecasting scheme for the future long term hydrologic process is called as runoff forecasting scheme which includes hydrologic model forecasting schemes and probability statistic methods 1 Correlation diagram forecasting scheme Click correlation diagram forecasting scheme to have the window of inputting attributes of correlation diagram forecasting scheme A correlation diagram forecasting scheme includes the attributes as follows w National Flood Forecasting System Select the type of forecasting nnunnnnnnnnnnnNNNNNNNNNANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNENNENNNSNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNENNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNENNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNENENNNENNNANENNNNENNENNNENNNE oa Correlation diagram forecastin
27. 1 01 2000 6 9 14 1 13 0 39 1 42 2000 6 9 20 0 88 0 37 1 36 2000 6 10 2 0 27 0 34 1 23 2000 6 10 8 3 47 0 60 2 19 2000 6 10 14 4 26 0 82 3 02 2000 6 10 20 7 79 0 90 3 30 5 The standard format of the end state file STN is the same of that of the initial state file STS 6 2 Rainfall Runoff Correlation Diagram Model P_RZHJR 6 2 1 Model Principle Rainfall Runoff P_RZHJR is a simple and method with higher Correlation Diagram Model convenient flood forecasting precision Calculation of net rainfall with P P R relation curve See Fig 12 1 is to change the duration rainfall series into accumulative rainfall series based on the soil moisture content P at the time the flood starts raising to look up the accumulative net rainfall with the accumulative rainfall and then to change the accumulative net rainfall into duration net rainfall series R Because P 1S calculated from the rainfall in Fig 12 1 Rainfall Runoff Correlation Diagram prophase it is called as antecedent rainfall P is the parameter to reflect soil humidity The equation is When there is rainfall in last duration i e P_ gt 0 ie K P T P 12 14 When there is no rainfall in last duration Fat Kai 12 15 in which K means the decay coefficient of soil moisture content Pa Pa 1 means the antecedent rainfall of this duration and last duration P _ means the rainfall of last duration In is used to express the maximum initial l
28. 2 K Constant of sub reach storage which is taken as the length of calculation time 3 MP Number of sub reaches 6 5 3 Model Data File Muskngum Routing Method MSK has 5 input and output files i e PAR STS DIS STN and OUT 1 The parameter file PAR has the standard format as following 81016 81012 MSK PARAMETER amp PARA_TABLE X 0 355 KK 6 MP 3 2 Initial state file STS has the standard format as following 185 198 200 202 fmitial discharge at the various sections in Muskingum routing method 3 The equi duration stage discharge input file DIS has the standard system format 4 The standard format of the end state file STN is the same of that of the initial state file STS 5 The equi duration stage discharge output file OUT has the standard system format
29. 2006 09 14 19 00 4 2006 09 12 17 00 1 2006 09 12 16 00 2006 09 12 15 00 Faooe os i2 18 00 s eooe oo ae 20 00 af C 05 00 af Co 08 00 af Close tC PAN 3 2 Mixed Inquiry with Map and List The system displays the following toolbar o A O E A Be Be 8 a Select In Out Roam Spot Area Resh AddPot fread Up UFD Riarn Firan Full 60a Map list mixed Click the button of map with the left key of mouse to have the whole map in the main window ite iran mrapa mi Dee i ara af Fee es reri Tala Bl T aa Flad inferi a F 1 feat Ti x Click the button of list with the left key of mouse to have the inquired list data in the main window 4 2 a fot see ye Ta ae Dalekim wl Pee moebieg Stalin Pose eee fa ag a Ta Dok Binge wl Pam aLl Sloeiteam Tole Fool fim Cand alm mlina frlp 4 TI t G E Ta a ae T Gte GU e a shina E b gm a stage l conedlng al fianna T day ETE river varainy 5 a d i a je T a ten pesiaee srs neal onal aa FEEN PEP REGEN 3 ane oem 1 i r 3 pa vse a Sr ee ee ia or orea oje S e g 2 Daaa W a5 Er mga ler 13 bo OF BOE C2 FO7IGGOL Vdd Gh BO taj 167 13 162 08 Click the button of mixed with the left key of mouse to have the map and list in the main window verdes seapea larian gi PoracariLegp gid Poara Esa mapai Blok lho eb Pevacart Shear hara Teal Eee Tisa Eland wpkeresioan Falp ka
30. 4 Block Diagram of Forecast Structure 222222 228 88 288 8 ee tee cee cee cee cee cee cee cee cee cee cee ces ces 6 Forecasting AY ty 03 i ec 6 1 Three Layer Soil Moisture Model SMS_3 Coe coe coe coe cee cee ooo coe cee cee ooo coe cee cee ooo cee cee cee 6 2 Rainfall Runoff Correlation Diagram Model P_RZHIR ccrstrstrtts ste cte ste cee cee cee cee ces 6 3 Three Layer Lag and Route Model LAG_3 Coe coe coe coe cee coe cee coe cee ooo ooo cee ooo cee ooo cee cee 6 4 Empirical Unit Hydrograph UH B Iren E E gaan ei S 6 5 MUSKINGUM Routing Method MS RIS EE E E A E E e AN PREFACE As the software platform of flood forecasting flood forecasting systems integrate various hydrological technologies Because it is a large system project there are some problems of bad compatibility between old and new systems repetitive development and deficient functions in the construction of the existing flood forecasting systems Otherwise the existing systems can not fully meet the requirements from flood control and disaster reducing in the respects of forecasting lead time forecasting precision and forecasting scale Therefore it is significant to develop an advanced standardized and fully functional flood forecasting system Bureau of Hydrology Ministry of Water Resources of China has been responsible for construction of the National Flood Forecasting System Since 1998 this system was developed according to practical experience based on data base mana
31. 9 15 8 20 9 25 9 29 10 4 10 9 fa F244 80115000 Observed 3 The part of time setting This part can be used to modify warm up period and lead time for re setting start time and end time However forecasting time can not be modified If it is necessary to modify the forecasting time please get into the window of operational forecasting and repeat operational forecasting Once the warm up period and lead time have been modified re calculation in the part of function buttons will change into usable state Other operation can not be made unless clicking the button of re calculation 4 The part of function buttons This part includes 7 function buttons of re calculation real time emendation store result lead time rainfall storage state transcribe result and close 1 Re calculation After modifying the model information and time setting this function button will change into usable state Click it to make re calculation of the forecasting scheme 2 Real time emendation After making the manual examination and analysis of all the information this function can be used to real time emend the forecasted process after the forecasting time according to the error series of the forecasted process and observed process before the forecasting time 3 Store results After finishing all the analysis and calculation click the button of store results to display inputting the name of the forecasted results Click OK
32. Click the menu of real time hydrograph with the left key of mouse to have the real time hydrograph at the station Click data list with the left key of mouse to have data of weir and sluice im STE Data list Other duration Print Close W sluice W sluice l Warining stage Guaranteed stage 3 0 2006 9 11 i A 0 DAR Time n sluice up sluice dow Discharge 3 a 4 4 4 4 4 A a 3 Je 4 ao od oS NO NON ON ON OO ON AW Sisicicieisisieieieisiscic olsicicis 3 1 6 Inquiry of Hydrological Factors at Tidal Level Stations Click the tidal level station on the map with the left key of mouse to have the following menus Real time stage process Real time rainfall process Forecasting process Modify station attributes Delete station 1 Real time stage process Click the menu of real time stage process with the left key of mouse to have the real time stage process at the station w gat TO503400 tidal stage process Time aoe Fog H 10H 19 18 76 e006 Fog A11A 00 00 OF 200609 H11H 07 42 B86 oog ogH11H 12 42 T6 apogo H 11H 19 42 61 apog og HiH oo 42 Td sqosteogAi2h 08 18 81 apog ogH1i2H 19 12 69 2 Real time rainfall process Click the menu of real time rainfall process with the left key of mouse to have the real time rainfall process w OH 7 1500100 H 5 SEs Rainfall Daily rainfall z006 709 14 25 00 2067 09 12 20 00 aT tl al
33. E E eae eRe E Hee ROC Nias E A Menem nee ae 2 7 Chart Layer Manas ome 1 a a EE R 2 8 Management of Forecasting Do 2 9 Data Base Lin kere cee 88 228 coe cee cee cee cee coe cee coe coe cee ces cae cos cee cee cas vee cae cee cee ces cee cee cee cee vee 3 Inquiry of 0 101 0 3 1 Inquiry of Hydrological RIF 64 100 i a 3 2 Mixed Inquiry with Map and LiSteoee cer cee coe cet cee cee eee cee cee cee cee cee cee coe cee cee cee con cee cee cee 3 3 Inquiry of Real Time Flood Informations street settee cee eeeceecee cesses ences ceeeee ene eee cee ees 3 4 Toolbar ces cee cee cee cee 228 cee cee cee cee cee cee cee cee cee cee cee cee coe coe one cee con cee coe cee ne coe cen ces cee cen ooo 4 System Modeling eer rset Se ests ry ine rine erie eke erie re eiG niciete eran see AE a tne see ey rine E a peices 4 1 Scheme PES CAB IG IR eee he eee ete ts tie Riese sine Snare A ee Mere nee een Sie aeN Sted e SP estan ese eRe Sete 4 2 Historic Data PLOCESS 1 iar ett serene 288 nine meee eae Sore Kets Cees See a Rte Reg Hew eee Ce RS ese eee 4 3 gt 8 072 6 10 0 ck i a 5 Real Time Operational FQPEC ASU Gere sse eer ee se se ene se tane bs cena see tte a EE ERa 5 1 Selection of Forecasting Stations 222228 288 oo eee eee ee cee cee cee cee cee ee cee cee cee cee cee cee cee cee coe 5 2 POLS CAS Li Gry Sere waite Delong eet ea ee E SRE NG eRe NSE Sg S Smee ee AE ceo coo ooo ooo cee 5 3 Area Manaso ment ese Ret eee geyser Rae nes E Ea EAE a AE E EE see 5
34. Lo 1a Station ition aiee Date eri stage ood actar foen ining aeaea A CE E k j i r TH Lee LeeLee is 2 x i iE T ale F F o BOA E TAD A FR 1 Click the menu of weir and sluice flood information with the left key of mouse to have the following dialog box in which there is real time weir and sluice flood information in a fixed duration 49 Single Station OU000000 Tim zoroa ca i Multi CEEEEEEE Boim L10 18 W ra Station ition mliverna Data zeh sluice pote sluice d Esant 3T0PNUE i sx The Booogie SAT IEE LD 1b 09 BD p 94 911 a F mnoo aree as arise onmlakeneen imien sale O O a E a a a aio a E S S ameo ara aroei oseo f aaen oo o EMTS Ae eel eal a S memelas mew O aee O enaj saM aroe o o ajn oo o m E a E _ __a E unenlannsen aver eof afl Ta STO a O T Osis ME BAM HT aie IEE 2 Click the menu of reservoir flood information with the left key of mouse to have the following dialog box in which there is real time reservoir flood information in a fixed duration Hrerealopec antoreetiiom F re C Sloale Station 0000000 i Tine SiH Obie E Bulty ee e i Eea Station ition nivema Date iteri ai e potel Inflow pi a e M a E rite ELALI aalen mol ernie r Lesmap eee El owe assajan af mf a amaes faee o nejen eaa uisongee eave eT apenn gabe assasi O oma Hsosese mp peAa oaoa tsal rice fO foe tanan
35. Original format ieri Ga onversion status Data Conversioni Exit 4 3 Calibration As for the flood forecasting schemes with calibration able models the method of coupling manual test error and automatic optimizing can be used to calibrate single value parameters so as to establish flood forecasting scheme Click calibration to have all the flood forecasting schemes with hydrologic modes in the forecasting system Select the forecasting scheme that needs parameter calibrating Click OK to enter the window of parameter calibrating 6 4 Sratlan rde Lima enla5o90 chem Schese description eee aie Ot F eetFhteis tbretoon of enel parameter Using sodal Model parssetary aran male reas Para tee selali sjal slater Litai oiL hes Sy aur Fao ol BALRA Ol wa 4 LEG A M Direct par ameter Range of dafauit Relation of defamslt State of default input parameter parameters made Caliber miian pari call Col she aiian recult Calibration Trt japi Fanci anal typi MEERE 1 F Sisti wha 7 threshold f Fuster e fieco apela Ch eetive Bde Feal tine function AEL The window of parameter calibrating needs the settings as follows input direct parameters determine parameter range or parameter values determine calibration period select optimization method determine the number of non convergent cycles select object functions and determine statistic threshold 1
36. P The number of reaches in Muskingum routing method 6 3 3 Model Data File Three Layer Lag and Route Model SMS_3 has 5 input and output files 1 e PAR STS RNO STN and OUT 1 The parameter file PAR has the standard format as following 81016 81016A LAG_3 PARAMETER amp PARA_TABLE F 12300 basin area CI 0 8 fadeaway coefficient of prompt subsurface flow CG 0 99 fadeaway coefficient of groundwater runoff CS 0 15 coefficient of reservoir storage regulating LAG 1 number of lag durations X 0 42 coefficient of sub reach in Muskingum routing method KK 6 Aength of calculating duration MP 0 number of subsection in Muskingum routing method 2 Initial state file STS has the standard format as following 30 total base flow 3 Aimitial discharge in Muskingum routing method 10 discharge of surface runoft 10 discharge of prompt subsurface flow 10 discharge of groundwater runoff 3 The equi duration net rainfall depth file RNO has the standard format as following 2000 6 8 8 2000 6 9 20 6 6 3 2000 6 8 14 1 40 0 21 0 78 2000 6 8 20 0 24 0 17 0 61 2000 6 9 0 34 0 14 0 53 2000 6 9 8 5 91 0 27 1 01 2000 6 9 14 1 13 0 39 1 42 2000 6 9 20 0 88 0 37 1 36 4 The standard format of the end state file STN is the same of that of the initial state file STS 5 The equi duration stage discharge output file OUT is the standard system format 6 4 Empirical Unit Hyd
37. TECHNOLOGY REPORT AND USER MANNUAL FOR THE NATIONAL FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM Bureau of Hydrology Ministry of Water Resources PRC November 2006 CONTENTS PREFACE 1 Installation and Configuration of the Systeme s r rrtts srt er eee etree eee eee 1 1 Installation of the SVS Ve Ms Senter ae Ate E CRF ONSET CSTE CFSE TESTO AE ees 1 2 Register Codec 228 et te cee cee eee cee cee ces cee cee cence ces ccc cee cee ces cee cee cee ee ces cen cences cescee ooo 1 3 Data Base SEELE Cor Pee E ET eh WA CAG SHE E Ree MeN et Oe Reis GN EEEE 1 4 System TATE QUITO Lee NO PNR LS CR ESSE E TON Oe MEER E RES COPE SD CERF Cae SH OS SUE One a 1 5 Hardware Environment 22 222 22 22 888 888 888 888 o88 288 808 cee cee cee cee cee cee cee cee coe cee cee vee 2 System Management ss ssc ces cee ces cee cee cee cee cee eee eee eee nee eee nee cee cee cee eee eee eee nee eee eee eee 2 1 User Manar ement e nn EAE ceo ooo coo ooo ooo ooo ooo cee coe coe cee coe 0o00 cee cee cee 000 000 000 000 2 2 Model MAN A Gee NL test eee tctes So ees eee eer eI EES ORR e ese CSO RTE REE CRs NORTE MaRS TRS RR te SS a 2 3 Scheme Mandec ment eee e ate ane aie net age A alge E aA la Aa aa SA eee e ERE 2 4 Stage Discharge Relation Curvesss oe 222228 228 888 228 cee cee cee cee cee cee coe coe cee cee cee cee cee cee cee ooo 2 5 Automatic OPE CASTING AE AE nee see eee E EER See eRe eRe EA Sey eee ee See Been SRN Haig Smee 2 6 Station Mana eme IL Or tar ee SNe ee EE E
38. a marapa Elek Door ef Forat TT aT Fd Toes lund inderestien Help a E 2 t m Bi uw Bea amp A stage euceeding sas Salect Tn Aree Pet AFi T C Tro Merk Pires Fal Ha d 1 IEY i a i Siege Smoreding Tive earniie T tinn n Statin a ARTA LE La NA an saan ANE 445 410002 FE ere os PE ga af en 21 e After clicking the header column of range with the left key of mouse the list data will be arranged in sort descending as shown in following map od EGE AUT Lo spoken seregeeet Selectore of Peearesling Takir Bereeeshieg dran meet Berk hepr aF Perarced Pirarkea Paalu Faal Pome Flani treed Taip k coe A T Cs ip m eee d a i E stage palsies a peas Sei In tht few Sp tem inak Aiton i kage scOCeeang tivar tarrang TORRES II 11 1 5 03 Be Na FE I fa emo 11 44 17 EE ai arom noc eer 2S fone em o rome 1 14 1 BB Similarly sort arrangement can be made for the options of station name date stage and warning stage Sort arrangement can also be made for the options of reservoir stage exceeding the flood limit duration rainfall exceeding 30 mm the newest river flood information the newest reservoir flood information the newest rainfall forecasting warning list mesne forecasted results list and final forecasted 4 6 results list In the option of stage exceeding river warning click a record in the list with the left key of mouse After selecting the record
39. a peje aeo ome aeajr f taf toaal moke jE oreo oaeo akaaeven f oaf we anos eter maa safran a a namsa aeo i o ose saaran snf wa aantre amebo oazo ee tefeven f eso iim e oa aroso oa bo aj saagan fiee inn eaealaar ein oe forrie aaa er Se fare eLi 0d ED 124 bo fall dav 36 mo lea ib MEN GRA 9 Buti 3 4 Toolbar 1 Zoom in eae Fe eee Roam Spot Ares Resh AddPot Ares Up UFD Select the button of zoom in function in the toolbar move the cursor to the map window and then Riwiarn Fran Full Map EE mixed a d 3 make the zoom in operation in two ways The first is click to zoom in Click the object point in the map the map will be zoomed in one tme Meanwhile the object point will be displayed in the center of the screen The second is rectangular frame zoom in Press the left key of mouse to drag out a rectangular frame on the map and then loosen the key the system will zoom in the area roped by the frame on the map to full screen 50 2 Zoom out cea Om 2 8 4 E 2 amp 7 Selec Panli pos Spot krea Resh AddFot Up UPSD Biarn Firan Full Map list mixed Select the button of zoom out function in the toolbar move the cursor to the map window and then make the zoom out operation in two ways The first is click to zoom out Click the object point in the map the map will be zoomed out one time Meanwhile the object point will be d
40. aa n EA p te li RAFRIRA J An a ed da T a ko Fr I Fo TE a i F ri E T llL mo 311 i i at Li 3 ee er WY er Pa e e en LF a P Dora P Fra TE E E be abe uonmane a p lit 4 tO Gl e T r tA hy 2 we ea ob 4 iat e wai T Leb i Made ee ee ee Ti ESELS BTT O Ta O O ee a Er E c Cie Fela YERE ET H m E ee ui vik o qe CE Fri Tp We hanso 5 2 2 Optimization of Forecasted Results Optimization of forecasted results is to optimize the various forecasted results based on the experts experience so as to issue the optimized results Click optimization of forecasting results to have the window of selecting forecasting section Select a forecasting section to be optimized and click OK to enter the window of optimizing forecasted results The window will display several forecasted results and calculate optimizing index for forecasters The window is divided into 3 parts of control list and graph w Stlect Copacart atatia P Station sode OL S000 faq IL DIA 14 oein or 1802700 OFI H B24130000 HPE TLILLTO0 ae eee 1133000001 ene Hii AR 1 The part of control There are forecasting time and forecasting factors at the top the forecasted results corresponding with the forecasting time in the right There is a check box before every result result codes in the middle and linetype label of hydro
41. all station is changed in list the rainfall will be displayed in red Drag the scroll bar in the left to have the rainfall information of the other rainfall stations Drag the scroll bar in the bottom to have the other time information The red line vertically runs through the part of graph is the location of the current forecasting time When moving the cursor the rainfall of various rainfall stations and area rainfall can be dynamically displayed at the location of the cursor When it is necessary to display the information in a small time range press the left key at the displayed part of the point rainfall stations make a move and then loosen the key so as to get the selected time range If it is necessary to display the information in a large time range double click the left key Press the left key at the displayed part of area rainfall make a move and then loosen the key so as to T4 calculate the accumulative area rainfall in the selected time range and display the part of control 2 The part of list There is a drag down window of rainfall station selecting at top of the part and a list of the rainfall time series values of the selected rainfall station at the bottom If it is necessary to look up the rainfall series of a rainfall station select the name of the rainfall station in the drag down window to have the rainfall series in the list If it is necessary to modify a rainfall value directly modify the value in the list The system
42. aph and the comparison between the forecasted process and observed process In the window the black thick curve is the hydrograph of the observed discharge at the forecasting section the red thick curve with points is the hydrograph of the simulated discharge at the forecasting section the other thin curves are the hydrographs of discharge that are simulated to the forecasting section by using the various schemes i e contributed process to the forecasting section or the inflow composition The larger error can be found out by comparing the observed discharge process and simulated discharge process at the forecasting section the scheme input resulted in the error can be found out by analyzing the contributed processes of the various scheme inputs After repeating the simulation of this kind the precision can be increased T 7 w H 80115000 Forecast result Return Time Forecast discharge Qbserved discharge Current time 10 13 02 L786 1860 I 10 12 20 1729 1910 110 12 id 1690 19350 10 12 O8 16T2 1910 10 12 es 1678 1960 10 11 20 T09 2010 loshia 1746 ADD 10 11 0 L767 1920 10 11 ITZ 1920 10 10 20 1745 1930 10 10 14 17295 1920 10 10 O8 L705 1870 10 10 s 1685 1860 10 09 20 1652 1850 10 093 14 1615 1860 10 09 0 15T 1850 wena 1RA4 1280 Legend 1O 80113300 Area 8011500014 ASF 80607500 275 80614000 SE FF 80804500 E ara EJH 80115000 20 00 14 00 06 00 02 00 20 00 14 00 08 00 2006 9 10
43. ata analyze and process the future stage and discharge input The window is divided into 3 parts The first is the part of graph which displays stage discharge process of a hydrologic or stage station in the form of graph The second is the part of list which displays stage discharge process of a hydrologic or stage station in the form of list The third is the part of control which is used to set the displayed range and content and make recession processing 1 The part of graph This part displays the stage discharge correlation of the selected hydrologic or stage station The displayed range is from the start time to the end time of the forecasting The red line vertically runs through the graph part is the location of the current forecasting time The real time stage discharge process before the current time is displayed on a blue curve The forecasted process after the current time is displayed on the blue curve with points The other time information can be displayed by dragging the time scroll bar When moving the cursor discharge or stage value can be dynamically displayed at the location of the cursor When it is necessary to display the information in a small time range press the left key in the graph make a move and then loosen the key so as to get the selected time range If it is necessary to display the information in a large time range double click the left key As for the forecasted values in the lead time catch the value with
44. ata files If it is consistent click OR m Add rating curves Station 80115000 Name TA aN Method H Curve Set Curve name T 5 Manual input chet Points of estimating Data File discharge with a le zhel txt rating curve Standard Observed point Sequence number stage discharge Points of observing Original format Cee 1 23 5 1200 estimating discharge with a rating curve je 36 50 1500 l3 38 5 1400 File input Input data status cn 2 2 2 5 Automatic Forecasting 2 5 1 Scheme Management Click Auto scheme management to have the window of scheme management which is used to manage the forecasting schemes and forecasting sequence This window has 3 parts including the selected forecasting schemes unselected forecasting schemes and description of forecasting schemes Select a forecasting scheme Select the forecasting scheme that needs to be put in automatic forecasting functions by using the buttons of move up move down move right not to select E move left to select and set the forecasting sequence move right to select nothing and move left to select all 1 Automatic emendation As for a forecasting scheme if selecting automatic emendation the forecasting scheme will be automatically emended when the running is finished 2 Automatic issuance As for a forecasting scheme if selecting automatic issuance t
45. be selected as river stage river discharge river stage discharge and reservoir inflow 7 Name of stage discharge relation curve The system can automatically exchange stage and discharge by using the selected stage discharge relation curve 8 Warning threshold The system has a function of forecast which is to set warning threshold of a forecasting scheme When forecasting values are over the threshold the system will give forecasters the concerned hint and warning The type of the values should be consistent with the type of scheme output 56 9 Scheme description This is a chief description of the forecasting scheme which will be restricted within 250 Chinese characters The content includes the source of forecasting scheme the used model method the main stations for the forecasting and condition of forecasting section 10 The amount of inputs When the factors of a forecasting section give linear contributions the amount of the linear contributions is the amount of forecasting scheme inputs Here the forecasting schemes of the stations of Yichang Xishan and Shashi are taken as the cases Case 1 The forecasting scheme of the Yichang Station The discharge of the Wanxian Station 60145 can be routed to the Yichange Station to obtain a discharge process Q by using Muskingum routing method the rainfall of Wanxian Fengjie Reach 60200A can be routed to the Yichang Station to obtain a discharge process Q by using rainfall runoff
46. calibrating model parameters is used to calibrate all the single value parameters of a forecasting model by using the sub system of coupling manual test error and automatic optimizing so as to finish system modeling real time forecasting model calibratiac User management d Model management Scheme management d Stagze lischarge Relation Curve Automatic forecasting d Station management d Map layer management Management of Forecasting Data Data Base Link Exit 4 1 Scheme Establishing Scheme Establishing includes 5 functions of scheme defining basin circling weight of rainfall station controlling and guide using system management Ses AA Historic data processing Calibration Tools Real Time flood information Help Scheme Defining Cireling Basin j Determination of Scheme Model Control Weight of Rainfall Station F Scheming wizard 4 1 1 Scheme Defining Click scheme defining to have the window of forecasting scheme types in which there are 4 types including the correlation diagram forecasting scheme hydrologic model forecasting scheme hydraulic forecasting scheme and runoff forecasting scheme Correlation diagram forecasting scheme A correlation diagram made with the quantitative relation between upstream section stage or discharge and downstream section stage or discharge or the relation between basin rainfall and relative downstream section stage or discharge is called as correlation diagram
47. charge integration of parameter C If there are parameters it is necessary to set the corresponding relation of stage discharge integration The setting method is the same of stage discharge integration of Y coordinate 19 Time integration of parameter C The setting method is the same of time integration of Y coordinate 20 Forecasting scheme integration of parameter C The setting method is the same of forecasting scheme integration of Y coordinate After setting all the factors of a forecasting scheme click OKR 9 5 scheme code SchemeS Name of X coordinate mm o Station code 80700200 name AF Name of Y coordinate kia feels hr s Types of Y coordinate Discharge Forecasting 3 Ha 18 hris e RBOTOBSOO RBOTO2400 setting Lead time Y coordinate Warm up period ag Day Time integration of 0 0 Y coordinate Types of scheme output River stage Forecasting scheme No scheme No scheme setting integration of Name of stage discharge a coordinate manning same stage relation curve flee nanning same stage Name of parameter C Warning threshold Types of parameter C stage W Stage 72 20 Discharge stage discharge RBOTO0200 setting integration of parameter Ci Time integration of 0 scheme description parameter C Forecasting scheme ischemel i integration of parameter C 2 Hydrologic model forecasting scheme Click hydrologic model forecasting scheme to have the window of input
48. cial Forecasting Data Base which is used to store the names codes parameters and states of forecasting models attributes of forecasting schemes forecast value station attributes historical hydrometeorological data and users information w Database link ae time database O a a rReal time database Fal atine Database Type SQL Server fo Server al Server 10 1 77 6 Seep Server 10 1 77 6 gt Sot ets Database irwdb en Database if etet Username za testing Uzername sa testing Pas sword ek Fas sword Hk j 27 Chapter3 Inquiry of Information 3 1 Inquiry of Hydrological Factors 3 1 1 Inquiry of Hydrological Factors at Hydrometric Stations Click the hydrometric station on the map with the left key of mouse to have shortcut menus as follows 1 Real time hydrologic process Click the menu of real time hydrologic process with the left key of mouse to have the real time hydrograph w PABE 71111500 H E Data list Other duration Frint Close 1001 17 00 stage 18611 M Discharge 3 Warining stage Guaranteed stage Historic highest JJ Historic maximum Elevation of levee crown Cross Section Well im eliT i EE Bates dint Cicer cer wt ba Fiza ibaa CUTS OOOO sage 135 St Tii 186 6 186 4 186 2 156 0 185 8 2006 9 19 l Warinis Empe Chamier pare r Hiii Lingle sa The green dots display the observed discharge the purple dots display flood peak
49. culation of runoff yield It is considered that soil moisture deficit is equal to water storage capacity on a basin according to a basin water storage capacity curve Suppose water storage capacity as Wm of which the maximum is Wmm and suppose that the basin water storage capacity curve is a b times parabola so that the curve can be expressed as follows b Ee E ei 12 3 F Wmm Hereby mean water storage capacity on a basin WM can be obtained as in 12 4 1 b 9 9 Y coordinate value a corresponding to soil moisture W can be obtained as l a Wmm 1 flee aa 12 5 WM When the precipitation with evaporation being deducted is less than 0 there is no runoff yield When it is more than Q there is runoff yield The runoff yield is divided into local runoff yield and basin runoff yield When PE a lt Wmm the local runoff yield is PEro R PE WM w we 1 Fee 12 6 Wmm When PE a Wmm the basin runoff yield is R PE WM W 19 If the ratio of non permeable area to JMP is not equal to 0 Eq 12 2 will be changed into WM ee Meanwhile the other equations will have corresponding changes 3 Calculation of water source division As for analysis of discharge hydrograph for flood periods of humid areas and semi humid areas runoff components include surface runoff prompt subsurface flow and groundwater There is an obvious difference between the 3 components in flow concentration speed Therefore it is
50. curves Displaying area input boundary If selecting the area input boundary will be displayed If not selecting the area input boundary will not be displayed 3 Input attributes Select the page of input attribute and set the various inputs of model parameters and reach rainfall computation 1 Input code This is the input code of forecasting scheme which is divided into point input and area input Point input includes the codes of hydrometric station reservoir station and weir and sluice station Area input is the forecasting section code scheme code letters i e A B 2 Methods of area rainfall computing which include Thiessen polygon method and isohyetal method 83 Use models Select an input edit to modify the models and parameters Click edit to have the window of edit and modification which will be described in detail in 10 1 Structure Scheme m Scheme attributes Input Code SOL sso0 BO11500014 SO THOT areal weighted meteorologic B06514000 SO804 500 Use Models MSE Edit Delete 4 Stations of scheme Select the page of scheme station and set the stations used for forecasting scheme The stations of scheme are managed according to input types 1 e point input and area input and 13 section types i e hydrometric station and reservoir station The point input means to set the station codes and composition of hydrometric stations reservoir stations and weir and slu
51. d concentration flow is calculated with convolution equation as following OF Se Ad i liid St it 1 lt m in which m represents number of net rainfall intervals J represents average net rainfall in a duration mm and g represents duration outflow of unit hydrograph m s 6 4 2 Model Parameters The parameter of the unit hydrograph is concentration flow curve as process variable The concentration flow curve is obtained by observed data analyzing which displays all the factors that affect the watershed concentration flow in a flood process The factors concerned with the concentration flow curve are the natural geographic characteristics and channel hydraulic condition The former can be considered as a constant the latter includes the speed of flow concentrating and regulating function In fact channel hydraulic condition is changing with various rainfall characteristics Strong rainfall has a fast net rainfall concentration for which there is a high flood peak with large volume so that the corresponding concentration flow curve is steep Contrarily the concentration flow curve is gentle Uneven areal distribution of net rainfall makes different concentration flow curves As for the net rainfall distribution approaching to downstream the unit hydrograph will have high peak and peak appears early because of short flow travel and less regulating function 6 4 3 Model Data File Empirical Unit Hydrograph UH_B has 3
52. d for setting that whether the chart layer displays in the main window of the system The option of label is used for setting the label of the chart layer Click label pattern to have the window of label setting select label field location direction center offset letterform color and background and then click OK to finish the setting 25 foe len lem at wat ta CEA CRE rift EHE fia is BAA xen Se mia 2 Type The types of chart layers can be divided into point curve and area which are displayed from up to down in the sequence of point curve and area in the main window of the system The type of a chart layer is determined by the datatype For example hydrometric stations belong to point type of chart layer rivers belong to curve type of chart layer and administrative regions belong to area type of chart layer 3 Zoom of chart layer When selecting display in zoom range it is necessary to set the minimum eyeshot and maximum eyeshot When the eyeshot range is between the minimum and maximum in the main window of the system the chart layer will be displayed if not the chart layer will not be displayed 4 The move up is used to adjust the displaying sequence of the chart layer 5 The move down is used to adjust the displaying sequence of the chart layer 6 The modifying name is used to modify the name of the chart layer EER Ezgo iA BSE 7 The add
53. e corresponding value of model state can be directly modified Click graph to have the window of graph modifying so as to modify the value of model state in the form of graph The window is divided into 3 columns The first is the name of model state the second is the value of model state and the third is the description of model state The corresponding value of model state can be directly adjusted or modified in the window of modifying model state value After that the model state file can be modified with this interface in the condition that there is no change of the state file format AT CPDL ISO80hetation operational forecast ing model paramster Model etetes Point Rainfall Arca Rainfall Het Reimfall 6 LO ecu TE b WK State namestate value Description i realaciimmnla HE 4b 964920 E aKa a HLP 125 T2680 REARS EE PE Lada d AF iers Mp ao 59ess0 eat ae d 3 aiea ap p Ta f heed d 25 eid eae 3 WE FRP B TMISS Pe th at i d FA aem rari z 4 E Sciam aput Foreceot disa Time options Farm r gt i i piad C j hours Lead time 5d 4 har Emet E oe tise Pami LA ak LUF Lm Fed Ak 10 1 DANN Es el ool stiwa Fral toms J amsi Basa 2 OO 2 en nO eo ee a Fima rawaka na IE KIO WI UIF W VE WE W WI wW IWF aS IG PWO 107 ween Tr ara cr tbe _ Tiap Ekaia i i 2 1 Farsrart Sige lt gt Forenint Thi coher ge Chearred taga bramei H cchorge i iP g
54. e system standard format 4 The equi duration net rainfall depth file RNO has the standard format as following 2000 6 8 8 2000 6102010 6 1 2000 6 8 14 1 40 2000 6 8 20 0 24 2000 6 9 2 0 34 2000 6 9 5 91 2000 6 9 14 1 13 2000 6 9 20 0 88 2000 6 10 2 0 27 2000 6 10 8 3 47 2000 6 10 14 4 26 2000 6 10 20 7 19 5 The standard format of the end state file STN is the same of that of the initial state file STS 6 3 Three Layer Lag and Route Model LAG_3 6 3 1 Model Principle 9 4 Effect of basin on net rainfall process is represented as translation and smoothness After translation and smoothness net rainfall process changes into flood hydrograph The reasons there are different distances from rainfall input location to outlet section uneven distribution of flow speed on basin area rh A a se it it a EEE Atl 1 The basic conceptual elements Linear channel When T is basin lag it reflects the degree of translation The linear channel is used for simulate translation in which there is only translation of barycenter and there is no change of shape The linear reservoir W KQ in which W is water storage K is constant of reservoir storage and Q is outflow The linear reservoir is used to simulate smoothness of flood 2 Basic principle Lag and Route Method is to dividually process the 2 effects of translation and smoothness in flood wave movement After a lag duration of a successio
55. ecasted result is determined by selecting forecasting department forecasting section forecaster and forecasting time Click OK to output the report of forecasted results After inputting description of forecasted results person of signing and issuing and assessor click print to print the forecasted results 8 5 jm Please choose forecast result Forecast institute Station scheme Forecast Time 60115000 JE Cancel m Forecast result table Forecast result analysis No Hydrological Bureau Ministry of Water Resources 20064F10A100 23 Ay Station 71111700 Forecast Time 2006F icH ioH 08 00 2006 10 10 14 00 Volume Discharge 1 3 a ie ee Eee 1 2 ee ee 1 1 i ae cae ae 0 9 14 00 16 00 18 00 20 00 22 00 4 00 06 00 08 00 2006 10 10 4 4 4 H k ee eae ee eh ee eh ee wee Je wade ee ele ee bhe ee meee do adie ee eee eee Please enter description Sign and issue Forecaster ly 5 3 Area Management A forecaster can use the all the forecasting schemes under his her name to make a block diagram of river system so as to find out the relation between stations up and down streams left and right banks and provide logic relation of forecasting sections for area forecasting Click area management to have the window of area 8 6 management The window has 3 functions of area adding area deleting and area editing 1 Area adding Click area adding to
56. em In order to meet the requirement of standardization of forecasting model standardization of input and output will be made for the common used conceptualized models so to establish standardized forecasting model library in China This chapter will introduce 5 common used models in China including Three Layer Soil Moisture Model SMS_3 Lag and Route Method LAG_3 MUSKINGUM Routing Method MSK Rainfall Runoff Correlation Diagram Model P_RZHJR and Empirical Unit Hydrograph UH_B describe the interfaces of various input files and offer the usual methods of debugging the model parameters 6 1 Three Layer Soil Moisture Model SMS_3 6 1 1 Model Principle Three Layer Soil Moisture Model SMS_3 includes 3 kinds of calculation of evapotranspiration runoff yield and water sources division 1 Calculation of evapotranspiration Basin evapotranspiration is calculated with three layer mode The equations are as follows Bb KXE C1231 in which E means evapotranspiration ability Eo means observed evaporation and K means reduction coefficient of evaporation ES 4P WU gt EI E 4 E wu PH 4P wu lt E B gt cr 12 2 j WLM P WLM WL C E WU P lt P WU lt E H lt CIN WLM in which C means reduction coefficient of deep layer evaporation WU WL means soil moisture content in upper and lower layers WLM means lower layer tension water capacity P means precipitation and E means calculated evaporation 2 Cal
57. eme whole province whole basin whole country and user defined can be selected As for isopleth value standard automatic and user defined can be selected After setting click OK to draw the necessary isopleth m Enter routing increment select Period of Time scope of Isohyets otart time f Scheme 2006 09 10 20 00 C Province l Catchment End time C Nation 2006 10 10 40 00 f Custom Value Options Standard Automation Custom 5 2 5 Isopleth Coloring After drawing an isopleth isopleth coloring appears usable Click isopleth coloring to color the isopleth 8 3 wa apem Galectien of Porascustieg Steen Ferecestiw keam manageri Bleck Pipe of foart Strectuce Teala aal Tise fleed vefereution Aaly em P A a M o 5 ee mal y oi i E E H aj ap hed pS ee aE wm spermi Palarkien ef Perecuskueg Skrim Perecaskicg Aram saage Bleek fiig of Fora aat Serestara Veals Faal Tose fissi infnnn fly amp E z o a x E amp 4 86 tL Aij J gt Baler Each difer i TEIE Full a da ak Tey ty Adds Linger oes TH Ee i Sas oe BE Sie TH LOO oon 5 2 6 Delete Isohyetose After drawing an isohyetose delete isohyetose appears usable Click delete isohyetose to delete the isohyetose in the main window and so does delete isohyetose coloring 5 2 7 Analysis of Forecast Error Statistics 8 4 Analysis of forecast error statistics is to make prec
58. ents so as to obtain the maximum rainfall process of which the duration is the same of the lead time duration and enlarge it according to multiple rate coefficients which is taken as the lead time rainfall If it is necessary to obtain value forecasting click value forecasting to get the value forecasting process in the input range of the area The part of list which is used to display the processed rainfall of various durations The number of the durations in the list is the length of the lead time If it is necessary to modifying it set lead time in the window of operational forecasting m Processing rainfall in forecast lead time Lead Time Rainfall Processing gt distribution of rainfall No of a m average typical year Intervals distribution Typical Year user 2 defined gt multiple rate Rainfall of typical year Allocation 01150001A 2006 10 11 2006 10 11 2006 10 11 2006 10 11 2006 10 12 2006 10 12 2006 10 12 aH06 10 1e 2006 10 13 value OK aa forecasting 5 Storage state Click storage state to store the initial state of the various models in the data base 6 Transcribe results If it is necessary to store the forecasted results in the form of file click transcribe results to input the name of the transcribing file and then click OK to transcribe the forecasted results as file 79 saving filename f REQ Y RAA e OE age Preload C See EHRE 1
59. er File Input IE Used method 20700200 BOTO02007A oMS_ 3 PARAMETER display parameter Catchment flow Empirical model Model description Textl After finishing all the input model sets of a scheme OK changes into usableness Click OK to finish determining the scheme model 4 1 4 Control Weight of Rainfall Station As for the forecasting schemes with area input setting should be made for the control weight of rainfall station in the area 6 2 There are 3 methods of Thiessen polygon arithmetical average and user defining 1 The method of Thiessen polygon In the current forecasting scheme this method can be used to calculate the control area of a rainfall station 2 The method of arithmetical average In the current forecasting scheme this method can be used to calculate the average control area of various stations 3 User defining In the current forecasting scheme users can define the weights of various rainfall stations but the total weight is 1 system management Ses AAR Historic data processing Calibration Tools Real Time flood information Help Scheme Defining Circling Basin j Determination of Scheme Model Control Weight of Rainfall Station F The method of Thiessen polygon scheming wizard The method of arithmetical average User defining 4 2 Historic Data Processing Click historic data processing to have the window of historic data processing This function is used t
60. ered Select user name input password and then click OK to enter the system Login Username 7 Password RAS 2 0 RABIE 010 1 5 Hardware Environment Network environment 2M KB Real Time Flood Information Wide Area Network The computers installed with forecasting systems should be linked with the network Operational system The operational systems over Windows 98 GIS system MapX OCX V5 0 Chapter 2 System Management System management includes user management model management scheme management stage discharge relation curve management automatic forecast management station management chart layer management forecast data management data base setting and etc 2 1 User Management User management includes modifying password modifying user name adding user and deleting user in which only system administrators have authority to operate the 2 terms of adding user and deleting user Modifying password Click modifying password to have a window for modifying password Input new password confirm the new password and then click OR Modifying user name Click modifying user name to have a window for modifying user name Input new user name confirm the new name and then click OR Adding user Click adding user to have a window for adding user Input the name and password of the new user confirm the password confirm the system administrator and then click OR Del
61. eting user Click deleting user to have a window for deleting user Select users to be deleted in the drag down bar and then click deletion Illustration 1 After a user has logged on he only has right to made operation involved with the forecasting schemes under his name If it is necessary to be concerned with other forecasting schemes the system administrator can distribute the forecasting schemes Users only have right to modify the distributed schemes they can not make deletion xa National Flood Forecasting System Vee ewer ee Selection of Forecasting Stations Forecasting Area ma w real time forecasting Lb Ty lik model calibration Area Kesh AddFot Up l User management modifying password Model management modifying user name Scheme management adding user una Stage Discharge Relation Curve deleting user Automatic forecasting Station management d Map layer management w Delete user Management of Forecasting Data Data Base Link Select user Exit Cancel Cancel aw w Add user Username Fassword Confirm password im change password Username Password Confirm password w ChangelserN ame Old Username Hew Username Confirm new password 2 After a user has finished his operational forecasting the forecasted results should be added with his user name for referring 2 2 Model Management Model management includes adding model deleting model and storing
62. g 3 scheme Hydrologic model forecasting scheme 1 Station code This is the code of forecasting section which is usually flood reporting code of 8 digits After inputting a station code the concerned station name will be automatically displayed 2 Scheme code This is the corresponding serial number of a scheme which is added by 1 based on the existing number of a forecasting section 3 Calculation duration length This is the step length of model calculation which is usually the flood reporting duration length of the basin that the forecasting section is located in such as that it is 6 hours in the Yangtze River Basin and 2 hours in the Sanhua Reach of the Yellow River 4 Forecasting lead time This is the natural lead time of a scheme which can be understood as the shortest lead time When the scheme has forecasting input of future rainfall or discharge the lead time can be modified or prolonged The value is multiple of the computation duration length 5 Warm up period To set the time length of advance calculation of the scheme which is called as warm up period As for a hydrologic model forecasting scheme the influence of initial model state on forecasting can be avoided because of warm up period A warm up period can be set with unit of day 54 according to basin condition and the demand from model calculation 6 Types of scheme output The types of forecasting output of a forecasting scheme The values can be selected
63. g unit basin concentration flow and river concentration flow Unit basin concentration flow includes overland concentration flow and river network concentration flow Overland concentration flow means the concentration process of water body on slope In this concentration phase there is no big regulating effect of surface runoff The concentration flow directly enters river network and becomes the total inflow from surface runoff to river network The prompt subsurface flow enters prompt subsurface flow reservoir and becomes the total inflow from prompt subsurface flow to river network after fadeaway of the prompt subsurface flow reservoir The ground runoff enters groundwater storage reservoir and becomes the total inflow from groundwater to river network after fadeaway of the groundwater storage reservoir River network concentration flow means the process of flow entering channel and concentrating along river network In this concentration phase the various water sources are consistent because the characteristics of concentration flow are restricted by the hydraulic condition The sum of the 3 water sources 1s the total inflow of the river network which is lag routed to the unit outlet River concentration flow means that the discharge from the outlets of various units is routed to the outlet of basin with Muskingum routing method according to the hydraulic characteristics of the channels and the reaches from various unit outlets or the basin out
64. gement system in the environment of advanced and standardized software and hardware The modular and open structure allows easy addition of new models and procedures It contains common forecasting models and a method library allowing prompt building of forecasting schemes It has built in functions of model parameters calibration that combines manual trial and error and automatic optimization methods Users can easily intervene in any real time forecasting processing by using the graphical and tabular interface This system can finish forecasts with various forecasting lead times and precisions for the main control stations of the large rivers important flood control areas important reservoirs and flood retarding basins by analyzing observed rainfall and future weather status As a common used software platform this system can be transplanted to build other concerned flood forecasting systems for the river management authorities and the hydrology departments of various provinces autonomous regions and municipalities and regions so as to meet the requirements of flood forecasting in flood control and disaster reducing At present the National Flood Forecasting System has been successfully used in 25 hydrology departments at national and provincial levels in China and supplied a lot of flood forecasting results of long lead time and high forecasting precision so as to provide scientific basis for flood control decision making and improve the techn
65. gq DH Fs amp SA Bi a amp a e a zts acceedireg Eadact In Tab Bem Spek a Rath Hon Wi UF Farts Fir uh i mi i ije ii Ei sE p ve 5 E Etaga TE civac wornlag 7 He r i i s al a i a De tilm n tatian Date toati stage lam Tha JUN LOGE A ee I 18 moe Fa 13 93 SORES EE Li L Va 06 ae AGE S290 Ths dae Ge YEE Cs diki 1 27 04 00 AFE id MOSER il 1 KE C2 TOE coal F lt EE Vee i eB ti a Qi ih lkt ii AMF BI IL 23 01 00 i T fae Ri a Ah fet 11 453 43 UJUE ta ar 147 29 147 79 bJ e a T t ru a iye ow a ae z re 5 i as in Ha LE Beall hi aE a z n a lz amli The map function is to display electronic map in full screen so as to get greater map space effect The list function is to display list data in full screen so as to get more legible and intuitionistic data The mixed function is synchronously to display map and list data in a scale Default means to display map Click the button of mixed with the left key of mouse and then drag down the combination box in the right of the window it will display the options for inquiring the stage exceeding river warning reservoir stage exceeding the flood limit duration rainfall exceeding 30 mm the newest river flood information the newest reservoir flood information the newest rainfal
66. graph type and statistic indexes in the below According to the requirements of error evaluating from the Standard of Hydrologic Information and Forecasting SL250 2000 the statistic indexes include determinative coefficients flood peak errors flood volume errors peak appearance errors and precision for analyzing and estimating various forecasted results The button of issuing forecast is used to store the optimized forecasted results after forecasting time for issuing In the condition of selecting check box click the code of a forecasted result to set edit state so that the code and linetype label change into red There are buttons of process spinner at the bottom 8 1 Under the edit condition click the buttons in 4 directions will make the hydrograph move in horizontal or vertical direction Every horizontal click makes move range of one calculating time length and a vertical click makes move range of 1 of the maximum flood peak value The button in the middle is one for reconversion 1 e retracting all the modification and reconverting The button of integration is used to vertically move the forecasted process in the range of the difference beween the forecasted process and observed process at the point of forecasting time so as to realize the smooth quasi inosculation between the observed process and forecasted process after forecasting time 2 The part of list This part will display the selected forecasted results and ob
67. have the window of inputting area name After inputting area name click OK to have the window of area editing Select forecasting station set the displaying format and then make a block diagram of area with beelines triangles and roundness to connect various sections The window has menus of attribute of station default forecast sequence size grounding store and back The default attribute is the displaying attribute of default setting Forecast sequence is the sequence of making calculation for the sections A later forecasting section can obtain the forecasted results from the former forecasting section He Ed aK Tie SE Sai De eS Ee ALP a Ceo Batt Tite ti Be RF EH kt 5 OFA 8 7 SDS aa Zs rag be no ace HERH Azam Ae nE Zw Rickie 1 TERE Rats 4ail TEn 2 Area deleting Select the area to be deleted and then click area deleting so that the selected area is deleted 3 Area editing Select the area to be edited click area deleting and then modify the information needs to be modified 5 4 Block Diagram of Forecast Structure Block diagram of forecast structure is to display forecasting scheme inputs and adopted models in the form of block diagram Click block diagram of forecast structure to have the block diagram of the current forecasting scheme lt Ha MIRARE DBR 8 8 Chapter 6 Forecasting Models A Forecasting model is the kernel of a forecasting syst
68. he forecasting scheme will be automatically issued when the running is finished 3 Confirmation Click OK to finish the forecasting scheme management of automatic forecasting m Scheme manazement selected forecast scheme Selectable forecast scheme scheme description 80113300 iT C1 schemel 3 if schemel Routing increment6 0115000 EN schemel 30101201 ts qJ schemel hours 30303200 102k schemel V Warm up period 30 30304200 KKI schemel days 30402800 FFE schemel 30700050 UV SRF schemel AS Re Lit 30700100 BIT schem S ALEE EE 4 ER AK FE 30700100 CJT El schem IKE 30700100 E B T schemi 30700100 CEMT KE schem 30TOOZOQ C a schemel S07 00300 CHEW scheme S07 00300 E scheme saTods00 AJE schemel 307005005 Zhi scheme S07 00500 2e 5 scheme3 Aut omatic wae Automatic a ion issuance 2 5 2 Automatic Forecasting Click start automatic forecasting to enter the state of automatic forecasting The system will automatically initiate forecasting based on the settings of forecasting scheme forecasting sequence automatic emendation and automatic issuance Considering the time duration for collecting real time information the system will respectively make 2 forecasting computations in one hour and two hours lagging behind the corresponding full duration point according to the calculation duration length in forecasting scheme The second forecasted result will renew the first f
69. ice stations from which discharge was obtained The area input means to set the rainfall station codes with which area rainfall will be calculated As for the area input of empirical models if it is necessary the stations and codes of the needed discharge should be set such as that there are point input of Jiangkou Station 80113300 and area input of 801150001A in the Wuzhou Forecasting Scheme Q Point input Select the corresponding point input in the drag down bar to enter the list of input setting In the case of the point input of the Zhongjiangkou Hydrometric Station 50102350 in Wuzhou forecasting scheme 81016 there are station code station name station type flow integration relationship and use scheme in the list The station code station name and station type can not be modified The flow integration relationship is the flow integration of point input For example the discharge of Wangjiaba point input is the sum of the discharge at the stations of Wangyiaba 50101100 and Shangang 50101000 in the Runheji on the main stream of the Huanghe River forecasting scheme 50102350 so that there is R50101100 R50101000 for the flow relationship of Wangjiaba point input which can be set by using the button of modification Scheme illustration Soles attribute Tout properties Scheme station Station SOLLSOOOCMEFoint input EXER ireas oeiee ll station BOLL Sood f Fal area m eel 14 m Scheme attributes
70. important to divide the water sources In this model the water source division is made with a free water storage reservoir The runoff yield R gets into the free water storage reservoir which and the existent water in the reservoir compose the real time storage S The bottom width of the reservoir is the ratio of runoff yield and area Fr which will change with time changing KI KG are respectively the outflow coefficients of prompt subsurface flow and groundwater The equations for calculating the runoff of the various water sources are as follows When S R lt SM RS 0 RI S R X KIX Fr RG S R XKGX Fp When S R gt SM RS S R SM X Fr 12 8 RI SM X KIX Fr RG SM X KG X Fr Because the storage capacity of free water on the area of runoff yield is not averagely distributed it is not suitable to have SM as a constant so that the area distribution should be considered according to a similar basin water storage capacity curve Therefore it is a parabola and EX is inducted as its exponent and there are EX fai 12 9 mm SSM 1 EX SM 12 10 gF 1 Au ssmM 1 1 _ 12 11 SM When PE AU lt SSM 1 EX RS pe sm s su 1 a F SMM 12 12 When PE A U SSM RS PE S SM F 12 13 6 1 2 Model Parameters and Debugging Three Layer Soil Moisture Model SMS_3 is a conceptual model of which the parameters have clear physical meaning The parameter values can be determined based on the phy
71. ing JOA GIRG Gi 3 gt 0 MOSGJbRI 11 24 3 g TOMRIGE 11 25 ba rol 4 29 q RRB eet ee ce a a i i 44 LYELL Seles Gf Porecastiag Station Foaretetligg irain gaged Elok DH agr aa af Feramgect Timuciaet Taale Baal Tie led infsrmation Talp Pinar pe mne i ao Bale T E tase excovai oe Ne te ee ate ak te eR ce ES lE f aei Ba Ant aiff oon te Stage snceeding CLAE warning faa acme oe fem Ce iee uo es OCE COCE D eaa a roa an ee man enaa en OCE qpe man ee n Yes roel eel ee er at o Arse satan sc ola fee sma ra a disit The above map displays in sort descending After clicking the header column of station with the left of mouse the list data will be arranged in sort ascending as shown in following map TFT mipri Hleri of eari Giakiena Feraretizg ko sipari Bdece lapa of Peaasi Elracrere Tesla fhal Ties frad dnferestion lp wa 7 Th k wares 51500 encsedine 2 aM Stage Harell CLE Yimdng ta 6 5 fh nm gt N elect Ds fer Few Boel dran Fank Bft ireo S P ya y imer e m iooe 4 8 0 3 r P a j Pn pr sii mr wn on fe esa moen n uis See riemen t te meat OEI After clicking the header column of range with the left key of mouse the list data will be arranged in sort ascending as shown in following map 45 zaka eMip Gadectten ef Forecasting Dir Lena Foracagtuec Aran
72. input and output files 1 e PAR RNO and OUT 1 The parameter file PAR has the standard format as following 60200 60200A from Wangxian to Fengjie UH_B PARAMETER 1 code of the selected unit hydrograph 1 total number of unit hydrographs 1 serial number of unit hydrographs 1 2 20 length of unit hydrograph 0 0 0 190 610 900 950 890 760 560 405 270 170 100 60 40 20 105 0 9 8 2 The equi duration net rainfall depth file RNO has the standard format as following 2000 6 8 8 2000 6 9 20 6 6 1 2000 6 8 14 0 78 2000 6 8 20 0 61 2000 6 9 0 53 2000 6 9 8 1 01 2000 6 9 14 1 42 2000 6 9 20 1 36 3 The equi duration stage discharge output file OUT has the standard system format 6 5 MUSKINGUM Routing Method MSK 6 5 1 Model Principle Muskingum routing method was firstly used for the Muskingum River of USA in 1930s As an empirical method it was testified coincident with the theory of diffusion wave of which the parameters have clear physical meaning and functional format The method has been widely used for river concentration flow routing Muskingum routing method is based water balance equation 7 1 0 0 W W 12 17 and channel equation W K xI 1 x o KO 12 18 in which OQ xI 1 x O 12 19 Make solution of Eq 12 17 and Eq 12 19 to obtain formula of Muskingum routing O Col C1 C 0 12 20 in which 0 5At Kx Co K Kx 0 5At K
73. ional Flood Forecasting System E 5 Ed 80115000 Curve name Number of points l2 Curve data quence M stage Discharge E 1 1 2 1 Manual input Select manual input and click OK to have the window of manual input stage discharge relation curves Input curve name and number of curve intervals input the stage and discharge at every point and then click OK 2 Points of estimating discharge with a rating curve This is the stage discharge relation curve created according to the intervals of estimating discharge with a rating curve Select curve name start time and end time and then click OK to have the window of the created stage discharge relation curves The time series curve means the connection of the stage discharge time series points The create stage discharge relation curve means to make a single curve with the least square method The ap equidistance series means to make a single curve with the least square method and the nodes created according to the fixed minimum stage maximum stage and step length The user defined means that users define various nodes and then use the least square method to make a single curve The Recalculate means that it is necessary to repeat computation when there is a change of setting The print means that the print output is made on A4 papers The created stage discharge relation curves will be stored by clicking OR 3 Observed p
74. is the forecasted information The hour number of the forecasting time is displayed in integral multiple of calculation duration length in the forecasting scheme For example if the calculation duration length is 6 hours the hour number of forecasting is respectively 8 hours 14 hours 20 hours or 2 hours Start time is the time when the system starts to obtain the observed data Its meaning is that to examine the comparison between the observed process and simulated process in the latest duration on the one hand to avoid the influence of the initial model state on the current forecasting on the other hand End time is the end time of forecasting scheme information outputting When the forecasting time is between the start time and end time the length of default time between the forecasting time and start time is the warm up period of the current forecasting scheme while the length of default time between the forecasting time and end time is the lead time of the current forecasting scheme The forecasting time start time and end time can be modified in the up and down move bar Click OK to enter the window of real time forecasting operation 7 0 m Select Forecast Time Forecast time GS 1 0 10 20 00 Start time warm up periodlT20 H hr a 2006 08 10 20 00 End time forecast lead time 6d lt hr s 2006 10 13 O2 00 The window of single station operational forecasting includes 5 parts of scheme inputting model informa
75. ision assessment of the forecasted results issued by a department in a period Click analysis of forecast error statistics to have the window of setting Having selected the forecasting department and statistics time click OK to make statistics of the errors In the window of error statistics there are terms of forecasting station names station codes scheme codes forecasting times issuing times forecasted values actual errors allowable errors eligibility type selecting in a list There are statistic results at the bottom of the list including eligibility percentage eligibility number and disqualification number Faracacst imetit te ME foeretact tite JOM E P Me SOR6 10 10 24 00 atien cojtiem sickemt recaset tii sewing tim SS wali served wall error jasible Ea ieo i e patee e owt O gaj o10 10 opkast pa SAE a I __ a a ar ae eS TILLITEN petere koleno a Ooo gea a n a S a a Tisa of wa a TC ae ee T SE E Made BH aay iwf aw AEE Baf 7B 8 10 00 14 00 05 10 10 96 51 i eee Mareen ee ee ee E H SM 10 11 2 0 Ce i etatictacs cptian Qualified ratio ataticticesd Tk Qualified rumbers z ef Flogd iiral ified mrha lt stage discharge volums naa Ercan eect fae 5 2 8 Output of Forecasted Results Output of forecasted results is to output forecasted results in the form of report Click output of forecasted results to have the window of setting Output of a for
76. isplayed and modified not only in the form of text or list but also in the form of graph Once there is model information being modified re calculation in the function button will change into usable state fo B01 S000 station opercetional forecasting E E Hf Forecast scheme modal parametar Bodel states Discharge Hodel output am na 301500 SOLISS00 MSE PARAMETER Aras R011 800014 Digs scheme inputting EE model information 4 en AF soso Tso E KE cy SE ene 14000 P EE D FR iem E EE Ferateat tini ETA caha i io 5 ERE ihe Lo Tim options i i pa aA Rainfall time setting md HOES i echarae results displaying Ej pr F n Siart DOG 10 Boron Gl Ti Farei j e110 wee tima a 1000 Ti Bad 200 10 13 02 00 ar Ti a _ a a so F ee e 5 Beal tise tation ee 1 PEE eee ree P EP ee eee eee Leel lt 2 A ma SO e A C80 20 00 Oo So Oo DA 0 25 00 DA gi 20 00 gA Store results Bote Se Bid Arja OOS OO OES wy OS me iwin iaia I _raiofald Storage state _ e i Si lt Perecesi Diacher gs Obuerved Eiage Marvad Ds schergs function buttons 7 cl i r ti Fee a Se se cos iw type Stagi Ri Disekarga Reinkell 6011507714 1 Parameter of unit hydrograph model As for the parameter of unit hydrograph model because the parameter is process parameter it can be modified in the form of graph Click graph to have the window of modifying unit hydrograph in which a uni
77. isplayed in the center of the screen The second is rectangular frame zoom out Press the left key of mouse to drag out a rectangular frame on the map and then loosen the key the system will display the last map in the area roped by the frame on the map 3 Roam Select the button of roam function in the toolbar k D AN G gt HO gi amp Fl Select a Eo cum z kesh AddFot Up UED Earn Fran Full Map list mixed Put the cursor on the map press the left key to drag After loosening the left key the map will roam from the jumping off point to the end point 4 Spot Select the button of spot function in the toolbar r a ae a rs w E atn Jg o jJj A Select In Up UFSI Riwiarn Fran Full Map list mixed When the cursor has changed into hand cursor click the object point on the map so as to get the county name of the object point E 2 Mai k wt Fos a las ae w 7 fe CON 1 7 in 1 cae E e 1 I i T l gt o i y 3 EAS i 1 The 9 i J pe i z a a r Bi P i air a a 5 Views switching Select the button of whole map function to have the map of the whole country k a q i CE A Dd w B adi 4 DE 8 Select In Out Roam Spot Ares Resh AddPaot Up UFD EN arr an OF LL sail list mixed The location button of views switching has changed into the fore view button k f Qa my F KW D t E aE e Select In Out Roam Spat Area Resh sAddPot Up UPSD Rivarn Swigir a tf list mixed Press the but
78. ist mesne forecasted results list final forecasted results list 3 3 Inquiry of Real Time Flood Information Click the menu of real time flood information with the left key of mouse to have the following menus Rainfall River hydrologic information Weir and sluice flood information Reservoir flood information Click the menu of rainfall with the left key of mouse to have the following dialog box in which there are real time rainfall data in a fixed duration Click the option of single in top left corner with the left key of mouse to input appointed single station number which can reduce inquiry range as shown in following Click the menu of rainfall with the left key of mouse to have the following dialog box in which there is river flood information in a fixed duration PRP LT at hee Single Station 000000 Tima 2006 10 09 eo Bulti f 33393954 JWog 10 10 15 45 ml sum EEE em mensen some 0 Pieiniooolta etm vveeie vw on ee sunny Tumour Rte inewn sunny o amea eer fene COT E Menma ae fene m 08 08 Pinta eee aee oan mire refer ear pemon etme amaeeitmio 08 08 iowa nas eae Trien Tae T oa Gil CHEF Bee TRE HRH 4 8 rele Statim OlO1z00 Tim aoga oa ful ti mo i 18 81 H Station stetion n location Dore Reinfeli tecther stnfalt umea rae aac onl sm a Reis Ott ee ja sae 200g 100a 05 00 Nulti SEI J
79. ity Therefore the value of SM will change with difference of calculating duration length The shorter the duration is the bigger the corresponding SM is 7 EX Index of free water storage capacity curve which is similar with B in the basin water storage capacity curve and expresses the unevenness of distribution of free water storage capacity on basin area EX has no big influence and is taken as 1 5 for general basins 6 1 3 Model Data File Three Layer Soil Moisture Model SMS_3 has 5 input and output files 1 e PAR STS RNA RNO and STN 1 The parameter file PAR has the standard format as following 66184 661841A SMS_3 PARAMETER amp PARA_TABLE WUM 0 15 WLM 0 80 WM 120 0 K 1 02 B 0 2 C 0 2 IM 0 02 SM 20 0 EX 1 5 KG 0 55 KI 0 15 ES 56 55 56 55 56 55 56 55 56 55 56 55 2 The initial state file STS has the standard format as following 86 3795 soil tension moisture content CWP 11 37952 fapper layer tension moisture content WUP g2 35 00000 lower layer tension moisture content WLP 6 498384 free water depth SP 0 7404729 coefficient of runoff yield area FRP 3 The equi duration area rainfall file RNA has the system standard format 4 The equi duration net rainfall depth file RNO has the standard format as following 2000 6 8 8 2000 6102010 6 3 2000 6 8 14 1 40 0 21 0 78 2000 6 8 20 0 24 0 17 0 61 2000 6 9 0 34 0 14 0 53 2000 6 9 8 5 91 0 27
80. l forecasting warning list mesne forecasted results list and final forecasted results list 4 3 eatin seregeeomt Heleetore aF Ferarasiirg Thabo Pereebe iras meegeseet Berk hepr of Ferarari FHrarkea Pools Fool Tisa Flani orcersetice Falip te eee E n p R es mie ral ei 4 hemes dri a Oh ieee Spek iran SELS ido CIEN L lirt sized ii E 2 asa ar lea ACAL SL Le FTE nie Ge aaa z esu oran TFE SE CERE OCORA fe famm oa afr ae famn oo wo ala PrE 7070M Fi L i R TEn VOT 13 z Metter 7 AOne Bil ob ee Ba ni a SO 16F al l TE Select the option of stage exceeding river warning to inquire the records exceeding the warning stage within latest duration The latest duration can be set in the tool menu In the condition of mixed click the right of the list box with the left key of mouse and drag the mouse to the appropriate location to enlarge eyeshot of the list Click the header column of station in the data list with the left key of mouse there will appear a triangle symbol of up or down which means that the data will be arranged according to sort ascending or sort descending as shown in follows fellas mapamap Salation af Ferecusting Siations Forewing bras macl Elec Sagres of Per woe Errira Tesla fad Timp fled isimi Elp a o gee e e ee E lis aizi mT maci Teak dial ob CES Fiar Firm fa TN TARY E iige wy SZ riser warn
81. l groups of station numbers to combine discharge For example the forecast is made based on the integrated discharge of the Xiayan River Station 80708500 and Chongzuo River Station 80702400 The function of setting is used to determine the integrated relation as R80708500 R80702400 R is expressed as river station I is expressed as reservoir inflow station O is expressed as reservoir outflow station and D is expressed as weir and sluice station 14 Time integration of Y coordinate The time integration is used to set the number of hours of advancing simultaneity and lag of the basic formation for forecasting The number of this integration is consilient with the stage discharge integration of coordinate This edit bar is for manual input When advancing is negative simultaneity is 0 and lag is positive The numbers are comparted one by one with 66 99 5 o 15 Forecasting scheme integration of Y coordinate Forecasting scheme integration is the corresponding forecasting schemes for the future information obtained from the basic stations for the forecasting Click setting to inquire select and set the code of the forecasting scheme of the basic station 16 Name of parameter C A correlation diagram forecasting scheme only has one parameter at best If there is a parameter the corresponding parameter name will be input 17 Types of parameter C which can be divided into 3 types of stage discharge and rainfall 18 Stage dis
82. let and then linear superimposition is made 6 3 2 Model Parameters and Debugging Concentration flow models are only used to solve the problems of river network concentration flow irrespective of runoff yield models Therefore the parameters of a concentration flow model and a runoff yield model are unattached each other in character Parameter of concentration flow is determinant of discharge process which is very sensitive in increasing simulating precision of flood process 1 CI Fadeaway coefficient of deep layer prompt subsurface flow If there is no deep layer prompt subsurface flow CI 0 When there is rich deep layer prompt subsurface flow CI 0 9 being equal to 9 days of concentrating flow CI determines the speed of flood tail recession However its influence on the whole process is much less than that of SM and KG KI in runoff yield model 2 CG Fadeaway coefficient of groundwater runoff When days are taken as the duration length the value is 0 98 0 998 being equal to 50 500 days of concentrating flow CG determines the speed of groundwater fadeaway which can be easily calculated with data of dry season 3 CS and LAG determined with physiognomy of river network CS is fadeaway coefficient of river network storage reflecting the smoothness degree of flood process LAG is the number of lag 9 6 durations reflecting the translation degree of flood process 4 X and KK Two parameters in Muskingum routing method 5 M
83. n of linear channel the flow represents translation After storage routing of a succession of linear reservoir the flow represents smoothness C O Clark firstly used this method to calculate the flow concentration of large basin in 1954 Later this method was used in river flow concentration This method is simple and convenient which is satisfying in the condition of clear translation effect such as the problem of long reach flow concentration the problem of large basin flow concentration and the problem of non linear The basic principle of the Lag and Route Method is as shown in following figure B gt ote H H tts It is similar to Nasi instantaneous unit hydrograph the formula of the instantaneous unit hydrograph of the Lag and Route Method can be obtained by using continuous equation of flow movement dynamic equation and Laplace transform 95 do l ok Ea er K n I K K 12 16 There are 3 parameters in the instantaneous unit hydrograph of the Lag and Route Method T is the lag time of every linear channel n is the number of the linear channels nt is the lag time of the system xK is the regulating coefficient all which can be analyzed with hydrological methods according to hydrological data or obtained by using matrix methods 3 Three Layer Lag and Route Model Matching with Three Layer Xianjiang Runoff Yield Model SMS_3 Three Layer Lag and Route Model is used in concentration flow routing includin
84. nd route method Add i Model default data default parameter file C parameter range file f default state file g parameter relation file m Add Model Model name Model type een sae C Calibrative DLL Path e Cancel Deleting model Select the models to be deleted in the model management window click delete and make OK to delete all the selected models Storing model Select the models to be modified in the model management window After modifying the concerned settings click storage to finish the modification m Add Model Model name Model type DLL Path Model default C default parameter file a C parameter range file C default state file Lm default parameter file a 2 3 Scheme Management Scheme management includes scheme modification scheme distribution scheme output scheme 1 0 input and scheme compression 2 3 1 Scheme Modification Click scheme modification to have the window of scheme selecting Select the forecasting section and scheme code click OK to have the window of scheme modification In this window click delete to delete the selected forecasting scheme and then click OK to store the modified content 1 Scheme illustration Select the page of scheme illustration modify the illustration document in the window of scheme illustration editing and then click OK weenie Selection of Forecasting Stati
85. ndow of inputting the model information concerned with the hydrologic model forecasting scheme which is mainly used to select model code and input the parameters and state corresponding with the model There is basic information at the top in the left of the window which includes station code scheme code input code and input type Click select model to have the window of selecting models which lists all the model codes corresponding with the input type Select the needed forecasting model code and then click OK to finish Every model needs to be matched with the corresponding and defaulted parameter file and state file If the selected model can be calibrated the default of the model parameter is usable Click default to have the default parameter file of the model Meanwhile the state file needs not to be set If the selected model can not be calibrated the default of the model parameter is not usable Click obtain from file to select the corresponding parameter file and state file The parameter file must be selected while the state file will be selected according to that whether the model is required Click next input to finish the other input model set of a scheme Click last input to modify the other input model set of a scheme 6 1 im oe BS Td 8 station BOTOOZ00 No Scheme Scheme Model state And parameter Input code BOTONZ00TA ere eae File Input f Input type a paramet
86. nished installing National Flood Forecast System Ver 4 0 on your computer Finish 1 2 Register Code Click the Flood Forecasting System on desktop or in program folder to initiate the system If the system is installed for the first time there will appear the interface of applying system register code HFFS Registration Please tell the following number to information center to obtain proper registration number ou can use this software after only enter the corect registration number Bg220 Registration number l Please e mail the HD series number appeared in the system to SLZHANG MWR GOV CN so as to obtain the register code Copy the code on the corresponding location and then click register 1 3 Data Base Setting Click the Flood Forecasting System on desktop or in program folder to initiate the system If the system is installed for the first time there will be a prompt to enter data base setting Real time flood information data base This data base was established with the list structure according to the Standard of Real Time Rainfall and Flood Table Structure and Identifiers SL323 2005 The data base was set with following parameters Select the type of data base management with the drag down bar If there is no default of port please click port and input port number Input or select the name or IP address of server Input the name of data base Input user name and pass
87. ns of operational forecasting forecasted results optimizing area rainfall hydrograph isohyet isopleth coloring delete isohyet delete isopleth coloring print isopleth statistic analysis of forecasting errors and output of forecasted results 5 2 1 Operational Forecasting To make operational forecasting for the current selected section or area Operational forecasting is divided into single station operational forecasting and area operational forecasting Single station operational forecasting is made for the current selected section and scheme Area operational forecasting is made for single station and the whole area 6 9 ta Hat rana Flood Porepaptise apretee EFFIE BkikpmkRt Ttlevticn of Fortcerting Fiations Bia he ee Oh E Zales Tn rw Rew Spot Aran Fash LH plimirniimm ae oe Fecal ix ret ake F m o O Hpkipaph of dron Univiell 4 AO Teshpetixa z Herati pradicaii s Aouelpaaa af Peracsat Error Statiwtica B i af Foracasiad aaa TE z 1 Single operational forecasting Single operational forecasting is made for the current selected section and scheme Click single operational forecasting to have the window of operational forecasting time setting so as to set forecasting time start time and end time The forecasting time is generally the current time of the system Al the information before this time is the observed information and all the information after this time
88. o copy transcribe check and modify the historic hydrologic data used for calibration of model parameters including flood summary daily flood data rainfall summary and daily rainfall data 1 Data type There are types for selection including flood summary daily flood data rainfall summary daily rainfall data and evaporation Select a type and then make an OK so that the list window will display the corresponding type 2 Station code Station code is adopted as 8 digits If inputting new data a code of 8 digits should be input If checking or modifying data click the drag down bar to retrieve all the station codes in the data base 3 Year If inputting new data year of 4 digits should be input If checking or modifying data click the drag down bar to retrieve all the year data in the data base 4 Data displaying After selecting data type station code and year click data displaying to have the corresponding data 5 Time series verifying After inputting data in the data list or selecting data click time series verifying to check data time so as to ensure the seriation of data time 6 Hydrograph verifying After inputting data in the data list or selecting data click hydrograph verifying to display data in the form of hydrograph for judging the correctness of data 7 Data storing After inputting data in the data list or selecting data data storing will change into usable state Click data storing
89. oint This is the stage discharge relation curve created according to the intervals of calculating observed discharge The detail operation is as shown in points of estimating discharge with a rating curve 4 Points of observing discharge and estimating discharge with a rating curve This is the stage discharge relation curve created according to the intervals of calculating observed discharge and estimating discharge with a rating curve The detail operation is as shown in points of estimating discharge with a rating curve w Add rating curves station 89115000 Method Curve Set Manual input Curve Name 334 Points of estimating discharge with a Start 2006 01 01 08 00 rating Curve End 2006 10 10 15 00 Observed point Points of observing discharge and estimating discharge with a rating curve File input Ad so Genmeceting steppe discharge relation Par Za gt t 2 Le i a 4 Tr da 4 e al ey ia ae e 7 q COo tips girias curve g create stagesdirchargs Tllation curve stage gqyuldistaice series lovest highest fluctuation fio a o fig M uer def ined rn 5 File input This is the stage discharge relation curve created according to the text files Select file input input curve name select the data files of stage discharge relation and then compare the consistency between the standard data format and the data format of the selected d
90. ology and level of real time flood forecasting in China In order to make it convenient for users we have written a user manual for the National Flood Forecasting System The user manual includes 6 chapters The first chapter chapter introduces installation and configuration of the System the second chapter introduces the functions of system management the third chapter introduces the functions of information inquiry the fourth chapter introduces the functions of system modeling the fifth chapter introduces the functions of real time operational forecasting the sixth chapter introduces the forecasting models Chapter 1 Installation and Configuration of the System 1 1 Installation of the System 1 Click the installation system of SETUP EXE entering the installation interface of the system jas i ai ma i K io J 7 Spe rs i a ra SWatrearmal Pied Farce Syarten Verin 4 7 Cie e 2 After confirming the authorizing terms click next step Frem Fiaa Faima n eet oman pa r National Fiord Porecoat System Versen dii i wee 3 Select the list of system installation and then click next step Choose Destination Location Select folder where setup will install files Setup will install National Flood Forecast System Ver 4 0 in the following folder To install to this folder click Next To install to a different folder click Browse and select another tolder Destina
91. ons Forecasting Arear w real time forecasting Lhe Lehi model calibration Area Resh AddPot Up User management d Model management Scheme management Scheme modi fication Stage Discharge Relation Curve Scheme Distribution Automatic forecasting d Scheme Input Station management d Scheme Output Map layer management Scheme Compression Management of Forecasting Data Data Base Link Exit 5 bon station code scheme 80115000 Ischenel elozo iamh A 62501800 G IEHL 62914300 Gey 62915600 GHE Tilogapo it EH ka ais Ere aed 1 1 m Scheme attributes scheme illustration Scheme attribute Input properties Scheme station station 80115000 station name f hp scheme name schemel Scheme atm O AFH E Delete 2 Scheme attributes Select the page of scheme attribute set the scheme attributes of warm up period calculation duration length forecast lead time output type warning stage warning discharge stage discharge relation and if displaying area input boundary and then click OR 1 Warm up period In order to avoid the influence of initial model state and display the simulation of flood process a warm up period can be set with unit of day 2 Calculation duration length The attribute is calculation duration length of model which is determined according to the duration length of the forecasted data such as stage discharge and rainfall im Scheme attribu
92. oration Although this parameter has a little influence on humid areas it has a big influence on semi humid areas and semi arid areas The value C has relation with the sum of WLM and WDM The larger the sum is the more difficult to have deep layer evaporation and vice versa Otherwise this parameter has a bigger influence on the flood after long drought Therefore the simulated flood after long drought can be used to debug the value C with the value of WDM WLM being correspondingly adjusted 4 IMP and B IMP is the percentage of the non permeable area in the whole basin area The value is often taken as 0 01 or 0 02 which is estimated according to the small protuberances on a runoff hydrograph These small flood processes are usually resulted from the runoff on non permeable area Therefore the value of IMP is adjusted according to the inosculation of these small floods B is the exponent of a basin water storage capacity curve which reflects the unevenness of distribution of the water storage capacity on the basin area The even degree of the landform physiognomy and geology in a basin is determinant to a large extent If the difference is great the value of B will be big B and JM have no effect on the basin flood at natural storage while they have effect on the local runoff yield B has some influence on the temporal distribution of runoff When B is big the runoff is from small to large When B is small the runoff is from large to small H
93. orecasted results If selecting automatic issuance both of the two forecasted results will be automatically issued 23 miie eect Saleen ef To eotie Bier ice Are eerie Flad Serre Sf Ferari Mirea Tal Beet dies fled iieii Bele ea E Aero es io wf aky l balari Ch ka Spa irik fad mifi EIk Eur ire Fel Eir lies mirsi ae eS ee SS ae P Y I Aa el smi Nn i P p ni T IE fem 5 a 7 fo Ee f i pin L 3 fo yoa Yy Lappe pi j 3 1 3 hd wee al a a m Fa F oe Aatiowal 7leod Forecasting Tyurin i T Calculating auteaatie foeracart h F A t h 7 ee a E e gt a 2 6 Station Management Station management includes adding station deleting station and modifying station 1 Adding station Click add station to have the window of adding station Input station name station code longitude and latitude select the type of station and select the ico of the concerned station Or click location of obtaining map to get the longitude and latitude from the main window of GIS As for the stations that do not belong to the type of rainfall station if there is rainfall term in forecasting please select forecasting rainfall m Add station station code Station name forecasting rainfall Station location longitude latitude location of obtaining map Type symbol Rainfall C weir sluice D Channel stage tidal stage f Channel flow C reservoir
94. orecasting ta Betianel Flood Forecartigg S9rstew Eo EJ EFFI Hh Bkhkpmiii ee ee Teorici tiag Arie aniphaeni Klask Jinga af Pericteh Stusture Taala Maal Tisy Casg infiwation aly gt BD wu 2s eS EF ST ay aa at Te IFM Ban Mra Fall Bin lii eizi E pr a9 Lint malarii aran talari gt m y 5 1 Selection of Forecasting Stations When making operational forecasting for a station it is necessary to select a forecasting scheme as the current scheme Select a forecasting scheme under user name to make manual operational forecasting by using list selection or area selection 1 List selection Click list selection to have the list of forecasting schemes and then select a forecasting section and forecasting scheme Click OK to change the selected section and forecasting scheme into the current section and scheme 2 Area selection Click area selection to have the window of selecting area and then select an area Click OK to change the selected area into the current area 6 8 otation code scheme 30115000 ischemel 5od07000 ARG 61402400 Th 62501800 GE URPI 62914300 GU joe 62915600 GRE 71100900 EE T1111 700 ARF 71200400 KE BOLLS000 eM BY ocheme description ARSED DRA LAHAR A 258 42 E fal Cancel Aetiens Flasi Forecceartine Srrice Brig pHiec de Balaeier mas Tijiire kres Fii Avda Stree tiri JLH T h 5 2 Forecasting This includes the functio
95. ost soil moisture content mm Usually 60 100mm When the calculated Pas gt Im the calculation is made with Zm being taken as P That is to consider that the rainfall no longer supplement the initial lost content and form runoff in total 9 3 6 2 2 Model Data File There are 5 input and output files for the Rainfall Runoff Correlation Diagram Model P_RZHJR i e PAR STS RNA RNO STN 1 The parameter file PAR has the standard format as following 68502 Dufengkeng 68502A P_RZHJR PARAMETER 1 Looking up curve mode code equaling 1 means to look up the curve with accumulative rainfall not equaling means to look up the curve with duration rainfall 60 maximum initial lost soil moisture content m 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 0 8 daily decay coefficient of the soil moisture content during 12 months KD 7 number of P R curves N 0 10 20 30 405060 Pa values corresponding with every P R curve 10 number of nodes of every P R curve M 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 20 37 5 63 7 6 9 12 15 3 40 9 11 3 14 17 5 20 25 31 5 4 60 16 20 24 29 345 41 48 3 5 80 24 295 36 43 49 56 5 65 5 6 100 345 41 48 57 65 73 5 83 7 150 69 77 85 95 105 1I5 125 8 200 111 120 130 140 150 160 170 9 250 158 168 177 187 197 207 217 10 300 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 2 Initial state file STS has the standard format as following 26 antecedent soil moisture content 3 The equi duration area rainfall file RNA has th
96. owever this influence is limit B is often taken in the scale of 9 1 0 15 0 3 or bigger 5 KG and KI KG and KI are respectively the outflow coefficient of the groundwater of free water storage reservoir and outflow coefficient of prompt subsurface flow The total outflow coefficient of free water storage reservoir is the sum of the both KG KI The fadeaway coefficient is 1 KG KD which determines recession duration of direct runoff N number of days If Nis 3 days KG KI 0 7 If Nis 2 days KG KI 0 8 That is to say the sum of KG and KI can be calculated according to N As for analysis of discharge hydrograph the values of prompt subsurface flow and groundwater can be estimated from the turning point of the fall segment of a discharge hydrograph of which the ratio is the value of KI KG After getting the sum and ratio of KG and KI the estimated values of KI and KG can be respectively obtained to put into the model for further debugging 6 SM The average free water storage capacity of a basin This is an important parameter which determines the ratio relation between surface runoff and other 2 runoffs in quantity and is related with the shape and height of flood peak When the parameter is used for optimized debugging flood peak is taken as the main object Free water storage reservoir is a parallel linear reservoir Because of using difference format of duration recurrence calculation it has uniformization effect on rainfall intens
97. rical flood Other period 22 00 20 1997 S859 2299 20 Observed 3170 2006 9 11 197911 14 6 Sketch map of section stage Click the menu of sketch map of section stage with the left key of mouse to have the sketch map of section stage at the station Time 007 03 12 08 00 Stage 4 20 om of dike 3 4 7 Historic hydrology process Click the menu of historic hydrology process with the left key of mouse the system will display the time of historic data and the historic flood process at the station w Select historical Eg w aa7H 80115000 Historical flood hydrograph Data list Other duration Frint Close 07 30 08 00 7 stage 1521 W Discharge 18500 l Warining stage Guaranteed stage l Historic highest Historic maximum E Elevation of levee crowh mi 0 3 1 2 Inquiry of Hydrological Factors at Stage Gauging Stations Click the stage gauging station on the map with the left key of mouse to have shortcut menus as follows 1 Real time stage process Click the menu of real time stage process with the left key of mouse to have real time stage hydrograph at the station 3D Real time stage process Real time rainfall process Forecasting process comparison between real time and historic stage processes sketch map of section stage Historical hydrograph process
98. rograph UH_B 6 4 1 Model Principle The unit hydrograph can defined as the direct runoff hydrograph which results from the runoff volume given by 1 unit net rainfall evenly distributed over a watershed The method of unit hydrograph assumes that the net rainfall is evenly distributed over a watershed the net rainfall and discharge process have a relation in proportionality and concentration flow is a linear and time invariant system The 97 concept of unit hydrograph is given by Sherman in 1932 It is an efective yet simple method of distributing runoff and has been widely used for many years As a black box method the unit hydrograph is inverted from the observed data of input and output A unit hydrograph can be derived for every rainfall runoff process However the fundamental is that the input by unit hydrograph converting would have the least error of system response i e the unit hydrograph is rational The common used tools include analysis method graphic method test error method and least square method As for the resultant unit hydrograph of watershed the resultant means of the unit hydrograph would be respectively derived from the floods on the watershed As for areas without hydrologic data the unit hydrograph can be obtained by setting up correlation of the observed runoff data and natural geographic characteristics between the area without data and a similar area with data After obtaining the unit hydrograph the watershe
99. rs of a forecasting scheme click OR 4 1 2 Circling Basin In order show the geographic range of the area input in a hydrologic model forecasting scheme and calculate the controlling area of a rainfall station it is necessary to define the area input boundary This is a rough boundary which can be described in 2 ways 1 Manual circling Click manual circling the cursor will change into cross And then click the point within the boundary If it is necessary to end circling double click At that time the system will show the window of setting area input code After selecting the codes of station and scheme all the codes of area input will 66 xe 99 be in the window Select one code to finish the task If there is behind the code of area input it means the code has been selected 0 8 m Input Code station scheme Name 80700200 IScheme6 71200400 l Areal Code S011 5000 B060T500 Borage 60614000 m a m a a a a a aUt OAU Ok Cancel 2 Automatic creating The system can automatically sketch area boundary according to river system and three dimensional topography Click automatic creating to have the window of automatic creating boundary setting This window is used to set the controlled points within area boundary The select basin is a default Its value is the basin in which the present forecasting station is located A control station within basin boundary can be added by inputting
100. s before the forecasting time while the end time is taken as 7 days after forecasting time w a ee ae w ae i E g4 EE e c Eti 2 22 SY ie a 7M di Ge rm reed oo The window of area operational forecasting is similar with the window of single station operational forecasting The only difference is that names of various forecasting sections in the area are added at the top of the window of area operation forecasting After selecting the corresponding name of a forecasting section the displayed content in the window are the same of those in the window of single station operational forecasting and so are the operation methods However the system has increased other 2 functions of area lead time rainfall and storing all the results The function of area lead time rainfall is similar with that of lead time rainfall of single station The difference is that it can process the future 8 0 rainfall of all the basins in the whole area The function of store all the results is to store the forecasted results of all the forecasting sections in the area After making manual interactive modification for a forecasting section in the area click re calculation to make re calculation for all the forecasting sections on the downstream of the section There is no re calculation being made for the forecasting sections on the upstream of the section HHE hie r a po Las athe FP A es i Ww fw Te i
101. s that the former has a fast optimization and the latter has a little higher precision 6 Type of object functions There are 2 types including object function of determinative coefficients and object function of water balance The object function of determinative coefficients is used to distinguish if there is a best quasi inosculation between the simulated hydrologic process and observed hydrologic process The object function of water balance is used to distinguish if there is a best quasi inosculation between the water quantity of the simulated hydrologic process and the water quantity of the observed hydrologic process The standard of the determinative coefficient object function is obviously higher than that of the water balance object function 7 Scheme output This is the scheme output defined during establishing a scheme which is used for calculation of object functions 8 Statistic threshold When calculating object functions a statistic threshold can be determined Make calculation of object function for the hydrologic processes that exceed the statistic threshold so as to let the calibrated parameters are representative in some respects 9 Number of cycles The condition of optimizing calculation exiting is that the difference between the former and latter object functions is within 1 X 10 In most cases it is difficult to satisfy this condition Therefore it 1s necessary to determine the number of optimizing cycles so as to s
102. scheme stage correlation discharge correlation only has 1 input 11 Type and code of scheme input The type and code include input type and input code The input type Because the real time data are from data list it is necessary to classify the scheme inputs There are 4 types of river basin reservoir and weir sluice River reservoir and weir sluice can be regarded as point input type and basin can be regarded as area input type Input code Code of point input type is the code of a flood reporting station which needs manual input or selection For example in the forecasting scheme of the Nanning Station the input of the Xiayan 57 Station belongs to river type so that its input code is XXXXXXXXYZ of which XXXXXXXX is the code of flood reporting station of the forecasting section Y is the code of the scheme and Z is the code of the area input series For example 807002003A is expressed as the input of Area A in the 3 forecasting scheme of the Nanning Station 80700200 w eB Tike oe Station Scheme Name The amount of inputs Input type nd code Station code 80700200 Calculation 6 hr a SATOREON duration length BOTOSd00 Forecasting 3 No 18 hr s S0TOOZ00B8 lead time Warm up period 30 Day Types of scheme output River discharge od Name of stage discharzge HEHE relation curve Warning threshold W Stage 72 20 Discharge Scheme description test After setting all the facto
103. scheme file and click open to finish scheme input 1 8 Scheme input FE Eel I iS nifsnew cscs a ae x1langy pln raw IFEN T E cheme file kt pln Fae ELA EASLTTFT E 2 3 5 Scheme Compression Click scheme compression to have the window of scheme compression All the compressed forecasting schemes are displayed for selecting in the window 2 4 Stage Discharge Relation Curve Click stage discharge relation curve to have the window of stage discharge relation curve management The stage discharge relation curves are only set for the stations that have been built with forecasting schemes This management tool has the functions of adding deleting and printing stage discharge relation curves jl SD SL pa SG it Sosa jw Ded 7 ba eg TIAA pal TO 2B ET nn PEEN CHIN ans TIER mar e A a g aa n e a i 19 Click add to have the window of adding stage discharge relation curve The stage discharge relation curves can be added by using manual input points of estimating discharge with a rating curve observed points points of observing discharge and estimating discharge with a rating curve and file input m Add rating curves Station 20115000 Name hie Curve Set Points of estimating discharge with a rating curve C Observed point Points of observing discharge and estimating discharge with a rating curve C File input w Hat
104. served process in the form of list 3 The part of graph This part will display the forecasted results and observed process in the form of graph The black graph is the observed process the other color graphs are the forecasted processes The red is expressed as edit state Ealt Farge Tiss Statistica Informatio Fera kamnite Lagana D cet var GS Etat Tiaa OO End Tina foo 19 mo furto m Currant timm a slelale i i 10 11 Oboe O l Foo i Hee fan ta EE D Statiaties atei Eietiaijas E S000 20 00 Do0 20 08 D00 20 00 0 0 Don S000 Doo i00 Te aid Ais mrig yis BS TS Uae it ri i Loo ie i RISI ajaja R z 5 2 3 Hydrograph of Area Rainfall Click hydrograph of area rainfall to draw the area rainfall process and accumulative area rainfall process in a forecasting area within one month Click data list to look up the rainfall process and accumulative rainfall process in the form of list so as to check the correctness of the rainfall and judge the start time of the rainfall 82 Data list Other Feriod Area 14007 65 Kilo 2 10 0 Rain fall 0 0 Accumulative 1232 14 00 2 00 14 00 2 00 14 00 2 00 14 00 2 00 14 00 109 149 179 IL 249 189 L10 510 8 10 5 2 4 Isohyetose Click isohyetose to have the window of isohyetose setting in which start time of rainfall end time of rainfall isopleth range and isopleth value can be set As for isopleth range sch
105. sical meaning in principle Because of measurement difficulties in practice however this task is often finished according to the law experience or the parameters of similar basins The method is to determine the initial values of a group of model parameters simulate the process of runoff yield and flow concentration compare the simulated process with the practical process with the minimum error as principle and then calibrate the parameters with manual test error and automatic optimizing 1 K The reduction coefficient of basin evapotranspiration The observed evaporation getting from evaporation pan multiplied by K is basin evapotranspiration capability Usually the object function used for K parameter calibration is multi year water balance 2 WM WUM WLM WDM Mean water storage capacity of basin mm As the index reflecting basin drought degree it has 3 layers with the corresponding coefficients of WUM WLM and WDM Because evaporation is carried out according to evapotranspiration capability in the upper layer WUM has some influence on calculation of evaporation and runoff yield WLM and WDM only have a little influence In the sampling process of WM soil moisture content W can not be negative If there is negative W WM should be increased Therefore WM in semi humid areas is bigger than that in humid and WM in semi arid areas is much bigger Increase of WM consists in increasing WDM 3 C Reduction coefficient of deep layer evap
106. t Aron rE s m Bisplay type Stage FF Diege M Banell SLIS0O0LA The model state with multi values can be modified in 2 forms The first is to make direct modification in the column of state value modifying This value is the first state value of the multi values After this value has been modified the other values have the concerned adjustment The range of the adjustment is the difference between the current value and original value of the first state value The second is to make modification with ruler mark The state of multi values will have scale down or scale up by setting the scale T3 FCB 0L S000 station cperetionsal forecasting Hi Forecast scheme godel parnseter Model states Discharge Hodel output eq LC gw sare eb WEE State namcstate value oe Description My Ares 2011800014 ax Ji Bon E E Lo 5 d AF aro KE dh AA mo P EE d Pe od bo E EE da AH Scheme oput in fh l Time options Ius Ga pried TH ora Laid tine Md hours Rainfall Di echerge Start Qe LO Dos oe Foret aean willy Fima art Bad 2006 10 13 02 00 Eo SEE Beal time aaa apie at LOT hr ae Fs st CREE eee i re PECE Se a j 4 0 30 A Da FO DA M 25 00 DA 0i 20 00 gA Store reita Ea Se wid ais Hz ie WE Whe Ds iho ds me iwin iaia Tiremscribe p w Slr teal i cess Farucani Siege gt Boerecent Oiachergs Obrerved Finga Observed Ds rheg i ar PE ORE Displey typa
107. t hydrograph can be adjusted in 2 forms of graph and list The form of graph Click the node on a unit hydrograph with the left key of mouse to make adjustment When clicking the flood peak on a unit hydrograph it can be adjusted by dragging cursor in any direction The change range in vertical direction is 20 of the unit hydrograph peak and the change range in horizontal direction is 2 units of calculation duration When clicking the other nodes the unit hydrograph can be adjusted in horizontal direction the change range in horizontal direction is 2 units of calculation duration When dragging the cursor the unit hydrograph will move with the cursor and water balance will be automatically adjusted After dragging the unit hydrograph to the target location it will be automatically adjusted and the adjusted values will be displayed in the list The form of list Modify the value of a node on the unit hydrograph After automatic water balance the system will make the corresponding modification on the graph By the above mentioned 2 forms forecasters can modify the coordinate of a unit hydrograph with mouse or keyboard The modified simulation process will be displayed in graph and list After a unit hydrograph is modified the program will automatically make water balance T2 tre GELS t M E ALt 2 Model state When clicking model state the page bar will display the initial model state in the form of list In the list th
108. tes Scheme illustration Scheme attribute Input properties Scheme station Warm up period 3q Day Warning threshold value eae stage 17 2999992 alculation 6 hr s duration length V discharge 20000 Forecast Booo lead time 2 No utput type Discharge Stage discharge relation curve Displaying area input ao Delete 3 Forecast lead time In order to forecast the forecast lead time of scheme the natural lead time i e 12 the shortest lead time will be input when building forecasting scheme Under the condition there are river system forecasting and future rainfall forecasting the forecast lead time can be lengthened when making man machine interactive operational forecasting However the forecast lead time can not be less than the natural lead time 4 Output type This is the model output type of forecasting scheme which can be selected from river stage river discharge river stage and discharge and reservoir inflow If it is necessary to match the corresponding stage discharge relation curve the system will output another factor Warning threshold Warning threshold of stage or discharge can be set When forecasting values are over the threshold the forecasted data will be written in warning list Stage discharge relation curve Select the corresponding stage discharge relation curve for the stages or discharge with exchanging interpolations Click edit to edit stage discharge relation
109. ting attributes of hydrologic model forecasting scheme A hydrologic model forecasting scheme includes the attributes as follows 1 Station code This is the code of forecasting section After inputting a station code the concerned station name will be automatically displayed 2 Scheme code This is the corresponding serial number of a scheme which is added by 1 based on the existing number of a forecasting section 3 Calculation duration length This is the step length of model calculation which is usually the flood reporting duration length of the basin that the forecasting section is located in such as that it is 6 hours in the Yangtze River Basin and 2 hours in the Sanhua Reach of the Yellow River 4 Forecasting lead time This is the natural lead time of a scheme which can be understood as the shortest lead time When the scheme has forecasting input of future rainfall or discharge the lead time can be modified or prolonged The value is multiple of the computation duration length 5 Warm up period To set the time length of advance calculation of the scheme which 1s called as warm up period As for a hydrologic model forecasting scheme the influence of initial model state on forecasting can be avoided because of warm up period A warm up period can be set with unit of day according to basin condition and the demand from model calculation 6 Types of scheme output The types of forecast output of a forecasting scheme the values can
110. tion time setting function button and result displaying 1 The part of scheme inputting which displays all the input codes of the forecasting scheme the models used by every input and scheme output Click the model corresponding with a scheme input the part of model information will display all the information concerned with the model Click different model there will be different page bars in the part of model information In the case of river models such as MSK there is a page bar displaying model parameter model state duration discharge and model output In the case of runoff yield models SMS_3 there is a page bar displaying model parameter model state point rainfall area rainfall and net rainfall In the case of flow concentration LAG_3 there is a page bar displaying model parameter model state net rainfall model output In the case of empirical model there is a page bar displaying model parameter model state point rainfall area rainfall duration rainfall and model output In the case of scheme output there is a page bar only displaying the forecasting process and observed process 2 The part of model information which displays in the form of page bar The 4 page bars of model parameter area rainfall net rainfall and model output can be displayed and modified in the form of text or list while the 5 page bars of unit hydrograph model parameter model state point rainfall duration discharge and scheme output can be d
111. tion Folder LNMFFS Input custom system name Please input the system name what you want and the system be named by custo F Cusztomizati National Flood Forecast System Cancel 5 Input the name of the system folder default the same system name and then click next step Select Program Folder Please select a program folder Setup will add program icons to the Program Folder listed below You may type a new folder name or select one from the existing folders list Click Next to continue Program Folder Existing Folders ACD Systems Capture Professional D Link AirPlus G HTML Help Workshop K Lite Codec Pack Maplnto Mapes 5 0 Microsoft NET Framework SOF v1 1 Microsoft Developer Network Microsoft Office InstallShield Cancel 6 If the system of Mapinfo Mapx 5 0 has not been installed in the computer please click yes to install the system If the system of Mapinfo Mapx 5 0 has been installed in the computer the step can be ignored National Plead Forecast System Version 4 0 7 The system will prompt an installation setting If do not modify please click next step Start Copying Files Review settings before copying files setup program group National Flood Forecast System Current Settings setup path C ANFFS setup program group Mational Flood Forecast System Installshield 8 System installation is finished Setup has fi
112. to store the data in the data base 8 Data conversion Click data conversion to have the window of data conversion There are 4 types of data conversions including flood summary rainfall summary daily average stage discharge daily rainfall All the year data of various stations in the same type can be put in one file Select data type to display the standard format of the data type in column of standard format Click data file to select the data file for data conversion The column of converted data file format displays the format of all the selected data file the format should be compared with the standard format If it is not consistent please exit If it is consistent click data conversion to convert the selected files into the special forecasting data base During data conversion the system will automatically check the time and format of the data and then give a hint 9 Data deleting After inputting data in the data list or selecting data click data deleting to delete the data of type and year corresponding with the station 6 3 10 Format displaying Select displaying minute series or not displaying minute series Le eej Fxirettivn E Elard sleweetati Faily mmi thags and rra 2 riri Faily rper G Biss apia i Vieihle Y Deri cibls w Data conversion Data type Extraction of standard station code year month day hour minute stag format
113. to store the forecasted results in the data base Save forecast result Type comments of forecast result 4 Lead time rainfall Click the button of lead time rainfall to enter the window of lead time 7 8 rainfall processing in which the forms of rainfall processing and all the area inputs of the forecasting scheme are displayed This window includes 2 parts as follows The part of control which is used to select the forms of lead time rainfall processing There are 5 forms of rainfall distribution including average distribution user defined distribution of typical year typical year and multiple rate of typical year The average distribution is to averagely distribute the rainfall according to the set duration number in the condition that the rainfall in the lead time has been given User defined is to discretionarily input the rainfall during every lead time Distribution of typical year is to select the typical historic year in the condition the rainfall in the lead time has been given so as to obtain the maximum rainfall process of which the duration is the same of the lead time duration and distribute the given rainfall according to this process rate Typical year is to select the typical historic year so as to take the maximum rainfall process as the lead time rainfall of which the duration is the same of the lead time duration Multiple rate of typical year is to select typical historic year and set multiple rate coeffici
114. ton of views switching to make switching between the whole country map and former map 6 Exceeding warning stage Select the button of exceeding warning stage in the toolbar 5 1 ega Map list mixed kaa aa G Select In Out Roam Spot Area Kesh AddPot fread Click the ico of exceeding warning stage to have the station at which the river stage exceeded the warning stage in a fixed duration Meanwhile the station will be continuously twinkling on the electronic map to remind the users as shown in following Lae co f amp mh 4 Select s Cy Fam feel dra Fash bjf it d F Af h i i Click the closing ico to stop twinkling and warning T OE E Select In Chat Roam Spot Area Resh AddPot Areal J i Full Map list mixed 22 Chapter 4 System Modeling System modeling is a very important part of the Flood Forecasting System of China which includes the functions of establishing forecast schemes processing historic data and calibrating model parameters The function of establishing forecast schemes is used to establish the correlation diagram forecasting schemes hydrologic model forecasting schemes and custom build the various hydrologic factors for the forecasting schemes in the man machine conversation interface The function of processing historic data is used to input copy check and modify the historic hydrologic data for establishing flood forecasting schemes The function of
115. tuating rate similar flood and horizontal translation Click the button of store and exit to store the modified stage discharge information and close the window The button can not be used unless the stage discharge data have been modified Click the button of don t store and exit to cancel the modification and close the window w Stage dischage processing Time schars Current time 10 13 02 1670 _ Discharge 16 12 96 1640 10 12 1d 1520 10 12 08 1340 110 12 o2 13590 10 11 20 1510 110 711 14 1140 10 11 08 1100 ioti 02 1330 10 10 20 1450 10 10 14 1440 10 10 08 1400 10 10 02 1580 10 09 20 1360 10 09 14 1580 10 09 02 15980 10 08 Oa 1580 1000 i i i i i 7 e 10 08 20 1520 FO 00 08 00 20 00 08 00 20 00 08 00 20 00 08 00 20 00 08 00 20 00 08 00 20 00 08 00 10 08 14 1190 2006 8 10 83 9 15 gla 9 20 923 g5 Q26 Q0 10 3 10 5 10 8 10 10 10 13 10 08 08 1180 7 l Content Recession Processing recession coefficients i fluctuating rate C similar flood discharg co horizontal translation stage 5 Scheme output Click scheme output to have the forecasted process and observed process of the forecasting section in the form of list in the page bar In the list the black part is the process before the forecasting time the blue part is the process after the forecasting time Click graph to display the inflow composition during the forecasting in the form of gr
116. uccessfully exit the optimizing program m BBE KTR oe Ea SWEM SAA 10 Statistics of historic data Click statistics of historic data to have the window of selection and statistics of historic hydrologic data in the special forecasting data base Select any input in the column of scheme input to have a statistic list of rainfall and discharge data concerned with the input so as to look up the statistics of the data of all the stations and years Click add and modify the time duration to add the data in a calibrating period for parameter calibrating Several calibrating periods can also be selected In the condition of several calibrating periods because the model makes successive calculation by composing all the calibrating periods into a time series it must be noticed that the model state of the former calibrating period at the end should be consistent with that of the latter calibrating period 11 Real time data Click real time to have the window of selection and statistics of real time data in the real time rainfall and flood information data base To use this window is similar with that to use the 6 6 window of statistics of historic data bh Buhaucm Pleo Pouce url Sero Torsi Statio 17e amd dissouari ESP LR FD ANL 7 ORT IS TD ALe tlhe LE JI wee epN uae o ay lI We Jain ee Le iius iama os Tinsi One hd 12 81 Rr CRAP PR TD OR on FLAT OPE TD tin Ey WA IE ube Kalin air pacind
117. word w Database link E mE J i rey el SL a a a A eect ce ee i ey SR ged e Po eae ae rar ge eh 1 io 1c T 7 3 14 oad a t i 1 FT TT bi T ary E Ee ea EHE da S ati ar POorecss tE EAR a L Er Py e A Se n EE mF eae Sea Ez Type SQL Server port Type erver port Server 10 1 77 6 delete Server 10 1 TT 6 delete Database jrwdb en Database if dbst en testing Username a i Username 2a Password ik Password eee OK Cancel Help The special data base for forecasting This data base belongs to the system See Chapter 13 The data base was set with following parameters Select the type of data base management with the drag down bar If there is no default of port please click port and input port number Input or select the name or IP address of server Input the name of data base Input user name and password After finishing the parameters setting of the data base please click testing to check the correctness If there is no correct data base link all the parameters setting will have blue grounding The Real Time Flood Information Data Base and the special data base for forecasting suitable to various data base management systems such as Sql Server Sybase and Oracle They can be installed in the same server 1 4 System Initiating After obtaining the register code and data base setting link the system initiating interface can be ent

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