Toolkit User manual - LEDS Global Partnership
Contents
1. A2r 820 ppmv IIASA 13 5 13 4 14 7 15 9 17 4 19 6 20 7 228 25 1 290 322 330 529 pen 70 A2r 670 ppmv IIASA 13 5 13 4 15 2 17 1 19 7 22 2 248 27 6 31 0 349 36 3 37 0 60 Baseline IIASA A2r 1390 ppmv IIASA A2r 1090 ppmv IIASA e A2r 970 ppmv IIASA 4 e A2r 820 ppmv IIASA A2r 670 ppmv IIASA l Emission pathways Il Trends amp projections Ill Mitigation potentials 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Source ECN 2007 IV Mitigation costs Ill Regions gt IIll Scenarios lt Info Toolkit prj Act Case 081029 Toolkit Viewer Case om Wot oss Example of creating a table Page 12 of 15 5 3 Multi criteria selection countries Vi This item enables users to make their own selection of countries based on e GDP capita e Human Development Index HDI e COs fossil capita e CO fossil The Toolkit offers different criteria to select from The user can choose between e GDP Capita MER or PPP e HDI no choice e COs fossil per capita MATCH or UNDP data including or excluding LULUCF Users can choose their own ranges per criteria If users don t want to use one or more criteria they can leave the settings as default per definition the whole range The menu gives also an option set to defaults which will set all ranges to the maximum ranges again GDPIcapita MER HDI CO2 fossilicapita MATCH COZ fossil MA2. Ic Emission envelopes for stabilisation at 450 550 and 650 Emission envelopes for stabilisation at 450 550 and 650 CO eq _ Relative emissions of CO eq 1990 100 200 C 650 ppm CO eq C 550 ppm CO eq E 450 ppm CO eq GRAND COALITION FRAGMENTED LARGEST COMMON DENOMINATOR IMPASSE Ti Emission pathways 0 Il Trends amp projections ll Trends amp projections 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 V Additional data Source Boeters et al 2007 Info Example hard coded figure lt l These figures are copied from articles reports or websites The figures can only be copied into other applications e g Powerpoint or Word document by using the Edit Grab Screen function Page 10 of 15 Flexible Figures Type 1 e g Toolkit gt Emission pathways and corridor analysis gt le Temperature change Baseline IIASA 1390 ppmv IAS 1090 ppmv IASI 970 ppmv IIASA 820 ppmv IIAS AS Baseline IIASA 670 ppmv IIASA 590 ppmv IIASA 520 ppmv IIASA 480 ppmv IIASA Baseline IIASA 670 ppmv IIASA 3 Ax Baseline IIASA 600 pre MASA 4 A2r 1390 ppmv IIASA Baseline MNP A A2r 1090 ppmv IIASA amp A2r 970 ppmv IIASA A2r 820 ppmv IIASA 2 __A2r 670 ppmv IIASA 4 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Source IIASA Boom Figure 5 1 Example of a limited flexible figure On
3. rise to extensive disk swapping In general this will have a dramatic effect on the overall performance of both Aimms and the other applications running concurrently with Aimms In such a case you are advised to install sufficiently additional RAM to run all applications comfortably again The Aimms 3 9 Viewer is designed to run under Windows 2000 Windows XP Windows Server 2003 and Windows Vista 1 2 Download software Please visit the AIMMS website http www aimms com Then go to DOWNLOADS gt AIMMS Viewer 3 9 2 Once the software has been installed an AIMMS Viewer icon is displayed on the desktop It must be emphasised that you need administrator rights to be able to download software on your computer Please be aware the software creates a new directory c program files Paragon Decision Technology 1 3 Download datasets The contents of the Toolkit prj file the datasets can be downloaded from http www brinkmanclimatechange com Toolkit htm Please create a Toolkit directory on the local desktop to save the prj file If the contents are put in a zip file please right click on it and choose unpack all Once saved double click on the AIMMS Viewer icon on the desktop The Viewer opens and an existing project prj can be opened Please browse locate and click on the Toolkit file in the Toolkit directory created in the previous step After closing the software the path to the prj will be saved by the viewer The
4. 4861 x ae Email smekens ecn nl Wo Ge Info Toolkit website http www brinkmanclimatechange co m Toolkit htm Opening page On the opening page 4 menu options are displayed File Edit About Toolkit These menus will be available at all times when using the Toolkit File Edit About Toolkit File In the file menu 3 functions are included Two are for printing one is Print Setup containing the printer identification and selection the other is Print which sends the current view to the selected printer The last one Exit is to exit the Toolkit Viewer Edit The copy function will be enabled when tables are shown This function enables the user to copy the datasets as given in the table directly into other software such as Word or Excel The Grab screen function for exporting figures to other applications See chapter 6 About Information about the AIMMS software and Toolkit version Page 8 of 15 Toolkit This menu item contains all subjects covered by the Toolkit It can be be used to navigate to other pages in the Toolkit see section 3 2 By clicking the About Toolkit option users return to the open ing screen The Show table function when enabled shows the data included in the figures in a table The data shown can be exported as explained later See chapter 6 3 2 Browse Use the Toolkit function in the top menu for browsing through the Toolkit When clicking o
5. Guatemala Guyana Haiti Honduras Jamaica Martinique Mexico Netherlands Antilles Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru Saint Kitts and Nevis Santa Lucia Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Suriname Trinidad and Tobago Uruguay Venezuela AFR Sub Saharan Africa Angola Benin Botswana British Indian Ocean Territory Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad Comoros Cote d Ivoire Congo Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Gabon Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea Bissau Kenya Lesotho Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mauritius Mozambique Namibia Niger Ni geria Reunion Rwanda Sao Tome and Principe Senegal Seychelles Sierra Leone Somalia South Africa Saint Helena Swaziland Tanzania Togo Uganda Zaire Zambia Zimbabwe Aggregation on the 4 region level OECD Includes the OECD countries therefore encompassing the countries included above in the regions WEU NAM and PAO REF Countries undergoing economic reform i e countries listed under the regions EEU and FSU above ASIA The countries included in the regions SAS PAS and CPA are aggregated into this region ALM This region includes the Latin American and African countries that make up the regions AFR LAM and MEA above Page 15 of 15 MNP regions HB i Canada 5Northem Africa MM 9 0ECD Europe 13SouthAsia Ml 17 Japan GE 2usa E 6 Western Africa 10 Eastern Europe I 14 East Asia MM 18 Green
6. TCH Mton US 2005 capita ton CO2 eq capita C02 eq Norway 63918 097 10 301 4 4 Iceland 53290 097 9 706 29 Switzerland 49351 0 95 6 683 495 Ireland 48524 0 96 11 845 48 6 United States of America 41890 0 95 20 597 6174 9 s Sweden 39637 0 96 7 159 644 Netherlands 38248 0 95 14 818 241 5 Finland 36820 0 95 14 059 731 l Australia 36032 0 96 19 735 400 6 Japan 35484 0 95 10 094 1291 0 France 34936 0 95 7 342 447 8 Canada 34484 0 96 19 062 615 7 C02 fossil capita MAT v C02 fossil MATCH 20000 Set to defaults X X X X X X X Shown here selection of countries having a HDI in between 0 95 and 1 Page 13 of 15 6 Export data There are two ways of exporting data as a figure or as a table 6 1 Export Figures A figure should be exported by using the Grab screen function First select the area to copy using the grab screen in the menu click Edit gt Grab screen area select the figure and use the left click mouse option select the area by dragging the area to select The selection is automatically copied to the clipboard Use the paste option to copy the selection into another application Powerpoint Word etc 6 2 Export Tables First create your table by creating a figure as explained in Section 5 1 Once the figure is displayed use the menu Toolkit gt Show table to display the values making up the shown figure see section 5 2 Once the table i
7. User Manual Information Toolkit for post 2012 climate policies Version 2009 Authors Sander Brinkman Brinkman Climate Change Koen Smekens ECN Policy Studies Brinkman Climate Change Consultancy Emission pathways and corridor analysis Page 2 of 15 Name address of corresponding author Sander Brinkman Brinkman Climate Change Theresiastraat 133b 2593AG DEN HAAG The Netherlands E mail sander brinkmanclimatechange com Koen Smekens ECN Policy Studies Netherlands Tel 31 0 224 564861 E mail smekens ecn nl Disclaimer Statements of views facts and opinions as described in this report are the responsibility of the au thor s It is not allowed to use the model and or its results for commercial purposes The Toolkit team is not obliged to offer any technical support of the AIMMS software It is not allowed without written permission of the Toolkit s developers to distribute license or other wise transfer the Toolkit to any other individual or institution alter modify enhance or otherwise change the Toolkit or use the Toolkit in conjunction with any other computer software Toolkit s developers will not be liable for any indirect special or consequential damages in connection with or arising from the provision of performance of or use of the Toolkit Copyright 2009 ECN Petten All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced stored in a retrieval system or transmitte
8. d in any form or by any means electronic mechanical photocopying recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the copyright holder Page 3 of 15 Contents 1 Toolkit installation 1 1 Hardware and operating system requirements 1 2 Download software 1 3 Download datasets Contents of the Toolkit 3 Start and browse 3 1 Start 3 2 Browse Info button 5 Create figures and tables 5 1 Create figures 5 2 Create tables 5 3 Multi criteria selection countries Vi 6 Export data 6 1 Export Figures 6 2 Export Tables Appendix Abbreviation of regions Ooo 0 ONN OF HPAHFA Page 4 of 15 1 Toolkit installation The Toolkit is a computer based information system that contains flexible factsheets including tables figures and graphs It is built in AIMMS software AIMMS3 9 Viewer www aimms com AIMMS en ables users to easily show large datasets in graphs and to easily add or remove parameters The Toolkit brings together data and information from various national and international sources and inte grates them into one system 1 1 Hardware and operating system requirements The hardware requirements are e 1 6 Ghz or higher x86 or x64 processor e XGA display adapter and monitor e 1 Gb RAM e 1 Gb free disk space When you try to run an Aimms project for larger data sets on a PC with a small amount of installed or available RAM you may find that the increased memory requirements of running large models give
9. es IV Bb MAC curve 2020 IV Bc MAC curves POLES model for 2020 IV Bd Marginal CO2 prices IV Be EMF MAC curves USA 2020 and 2050 IV Bf HASA MAC curves relative to baseline IV Bg GAINS MAC curves IV Ca CDM Market potential excluding avoided deforestation IV Cb Theoretical Global CDM Cost Curves incl and excl deforestation IV Cc Country Regional CDM Cost Curves Va Mitigation potentials and costs on a country basis Vb Energy related R and D expenditures on a country basis Vc Energy import dependency in scenarios Vd UN Human Development Index Ve Historic Responsibilities Vf Reduction of SO2 and NOx emissions compared to the baseline Vg Reduction of air pollutants due to GHG mitigation Vh Avoided external costs due to GHG mitigation Vi Multicriteria Selection Countries Page 7 of 15 3 Start and browse 3 1 Start When starting the Toolkit the opening page will be shown Brinkman Climate Change Information Toolkit for post 2012 climate policies 2009 ECN Policy Studies version 2009 For further information Brinkman Climate Change Emission pathways and corridor analysis Consultancy Theresiastraat 133B 2593 AG The Hague Netherlands Tel 31 0 6 1791 2401 Email lll Mitigation potentials amp scenarios sander brinkmanclimatechange com Il Trends amp projections Koen Smekens IV Mitigation costs ECN Policy Studies Tel 31 0 224 56
10. gation potential Hit LULUCF mitigation scenarios Hu Carbon price and mitigation costs from meat consumption scenarios Iv GHG and Land Use Change emissions from meat consumption scenarios Iw Meat consumption scenarios IIx Marginal costs of emission reductions with AD activities Illy ADAM emission scenarios INZz1 GAINS GHG emissions IIZ2 GAINS sector emissions IV Aa Global abatement cost as of GDP for meeting pathways IV Ab Global abatement costs as of GDP IV Ac Estimated global macro economic costs in 2030 and 2050 IV Ad Net Present Value of abatement costs IV Ae NPV abatement cost levels IV Af Regional abatement costs as of GDP in 2020 and 2050 IV Ag Permit price for 450 and 550 ppm IV Ah POLES reference scenario abatement cost for European countries 2010 and 2020 IV Ai Global cost curve IV Aj OECD mitigation adaption costs IV Ak OECD mitigation costs comparisons models IV AI Global impacts of climate change IV Am WAB balancing carbon price 2010 IV An WAB balancing carbon price 2020 IV Ao EMF global cost delay IV Ap EMF China cost delay IV Aq Annex I carbon prices 2020 IV Ar Carbon price developments over time in the global carbon market per ton CO2 IV As McKinsey aggregate reduction vs 1990 IV At McKinsey cost curve IV Au McKinsey financial flows IV Av ADAM carbon price IV Aw ADAM GDP loss IV Ax GAINS Total costs IV Ba Regional MAC curv
11. land EEU Central and Eastern Europe Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Czech Re public The former Yugoslav Rep of Macedonia Hungary Poland Romania Slovak Republic Slove nia Yugoslavia FSU Newly independent states of the former Soviet Union Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Estonia Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lithuania Republic of Moldova Russian Federation Tajiki stan Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan CPA Centrally planned Asia and China Cambodia China incl Hong Kong Korea DPR Laos PDR Mongolia Viet Nam SAS South Asia Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka PAS Other Pacific Asia American Samoa Brunei Darussalam Fiji French Polynesia Gilbert Kiribati Indonesia Malaysia Myanmar New Caledonia Papua New Guinea Philippines Republic of Korea Singapore Solomon Islands Taiwan China Thailand Tonga Vanuatu Western Samoa MEA Middle East and North Africa Algeria Bahrain Egypt Arab Republic Iraq Iran Islamic Re public Israel Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libya SPLAJ Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Sudan Syria Arab Republic Tunisia United Arab Emirates Yemen LAM Latin America and the Caribbean Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Bahamas Barbados Be lize Bermuda Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Dominica Dominican Republic Ec uador El Salvador French Guyana Grenada Guadeloupe
12. land E 3Central America I 7 Eastem Africa C 11 Former USSR IMI 15 South East Asia I 19 Antarctica 4South America MM 8 Southern Africa IMI 12 Middie East MEME 16 Oceania
13. ll be shown together as a sum in stead of separated So if you want to show the gases separately you have to choose to show the fig ure by gases instead of by regions option buttons below the figure Another flexibility in this figure is to show the emission pathways relative to 1990 and relative to 2000 where in this figure the user chose absolute values 5 2 Create tables Please click on the Toolkit button and choose show table As shown in the figure below a pop up appears presenting the underlying data of the figure If you want to make another selection please close the table select your new choice and repeat the procedure again to view the renewed table AIMMS Viewer Toolkit e File Edit About Toolkit IN Scenari dbx fis Share of renewable energy in primary energy suppl Baseline IIASA Region World z ai 1390 ppmv IAS 100 A 1090 ppmv IAS Source ECN 2007 970 ppmw IAS 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 seo peas 90 A2r Baseline IIASA 13 5 134 143 14 8 15 0 16 6 16 4 15 2 15 2 155 16 4 17 4 3 IO A2r 1390 ppmv IIASA 13 5 13 4 14 3 14 8 15 0 16 6 16 5 15 4 15 6 159 17 0 183 peers 80 A2r 1090 ppmv IIASA 13 5 13 4 14 4 15 0 15 3 17 0 17 1 16 6 17 4 19 0 21 1 234 ee i A2r 970 ppmv IIASA 13 5 13 4 14 5 15 4 15 8 17 8 18 0 18 6 20 1 229 26 6 295 520 2 ASA
14. n Toolkit a list of subjects covered in the Toolkit is shown There are currently 5 main levels Please scroll through the menu and choose the subject of choice A second way to browse through the Toolkit is to enter one of the five main categories by clicking on one of the five buttons at the main screen Emission pathways and corridor analysis Il Trends amp projections Ill Mitigation potentials amp scenarios IV Mitigation costs V Additional data The five main categories Once entered the main category the following functions at the bottom are shown E i ive 7 Browsing through the five main categories The figure above shows the five main categories The categories can be changed by clicking on the I Il HI IV or V For browsing within a main category click on the lt or gt 4 Info button For every figure an info button is provided Clicking on this button will open an pdf file external to the Toolkit which shows 1 Relevant background information on the datasets and on the displayed information 2 Source information reference to articles or reports and a website address when available oncerning the displayed information Page 9 of 15 5 Create figures and tables There are different types of figures in the Toolkit with different flexibilities and functions as explained below 5 1 Create figures Hard coded figures e g Toolkit gt Emission pathways and corridor analysis gt
15. next session will auto matically open with this project A project list is visible in the main screen when a new session of AIMMS is started Now the Toolkit opens in a new window and should run properly If not please try the whole procedure again If the problem is persistent please contact the developers of the Toolkit Page 5 of 15 2 Contents of the Toolkit The subjects covered in the Toolkit Version 2009 are Ia IPCC Stabilisation Categories Ib Characteristics of Greenhouse gas Stabilisation scenarios Ic Characteristics of post TAR stabilisation scenarios Id Stabilisation targets and chance of meeting temperature target Ie Temperature Change If Emission envelopes for stabilisation at 450 550 and 650 Ig Peaking and stabilization concentration profiles Ih Emission pathways for meeting stabilisation targets li Implications of delaying global actions for emission pathways Ij Global corridors for meeting long term stabilisation levels Ik Reduction target ranges for stabilization scenarios Il Trade off reduction non Annex I Im Trade off Annex I against non Annex I In Impact of deforestation on trade off Annex I non Annex I Ila Indicators IIb Short term projections IIc Scenario Intensity Indicators IId Shares in GHG development Ile Emission reduction gaps for 2020 and 2050 IIf Projections of non Annex I emissions Ig GHG emission with frozen and baseline technology Ith Bunke
16. r emissions Ili Baseline projections of marine bunker emissions II Share of marine bunker emissions Ik Projections of global marine bunker emissions IIl Projections of global land use emissions of CO2 IIm Global projections and trends versus IPCC scenarios IIn National Targets Kyoto Protocol Ilo IMO CO2 Emissions IIp Factors underpinning Future Actions Trajectories IIq Simple climate fact sheets per country IIa Global economic mitigation potential 2030 IIb Sectoral economic mitigation potential 2030 IIc Global Business as Usual and reduction potential for different sectors Id TDBU Savings Bottom Up compared to IPCC AR4 Ile TDBU Savings Top Down compared to IPCC AR4 INf TDBU Relative emission reduction compared to baseline for 2030 IIg TDBU Relative emission reduction compared to baseline for 2030 per sector INh TDBU Relative emission reduction compared to potential in 2030 Ii Cumulative emission reduction HIj Cumulative emission reductions up to 2100 IIIK Mitigation strategies INI Share of renewable energy in primary energy supply Im Electricity production indicators 2005 IIn Steel production CO2 reduction potentials and indicators IIo Cement production CO2 reduction potentials and indicators IIp Mitigation Potential Forestry TDBO AR4 Mq Mitigation Potential Forestry AR4 IIIr Mitigation Potential Forestry for 20 and 50 US Page 6 of 15 Ils Cost of achieving miti
17. s shown in the Toolkit see figure 5 4 click on the table and right click or press CTRL C to copy the table A pop up screen Copy Table Data appears please select one of the options export a selection from the table export the complete table It is also possible to export the table with or without headers The headers contain the title of the table data as well as the selection you made while creating the figure underneath Then click on the copy button Now open an Excel document open a new worksheet and paste From this point on it is possible to use and edit the table and even reproduce the figure in Excel Please make sure that the regional set tings on your computer are using a as decimal separator and a as thousands separator The table can be removed from the screen by clicking Close in the right bottom corner of the dis played table Page 14 of 15 Appendix Abbreviation of regions IIASA regions NAM North America Canada Guam Puerto Rico United States of America Virgin Islands WEU Western Europe Andorra Austria Azores Belgium Canary Islands Channel Islands Cyprus Denmark Faeroe Islands Finland France Germany Gibraltar Greece Greenland Iceland Ireland Isle of Man Italy Liechtenstein Luxembourg Madeira Malta Monaco Netherlands Norway Portu gal Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom PAO Pacific OECD Australia Japan New Zea
18. the right hand side there is a scroll menu headed with Scenarios Please select one or more sta bilisation scenarios to display For selecting several scenarios please use CTRL and click on the sce narios For selecting a number of consecutive scenarios please click on the first and use SHIFT while clicking on the last scenario Type 2 e g Toolkit gt Emission pathways and corridor analysis gt le Emission pathways for meet di stabilisation na Gases Total of all gases Regions World Sectors Total of all sectors Mton C02 eq 70000 Annexl TT non Annexl M World B2 Baseline IIASA B2 670 ppmv IIASA B2 480 ppmv IIASA I Rest of the sectors M Total of all sectors Absolute values ibd I j 1990 10000 Emission pathways Trends amp projections ll Mitigation potentials IV Mitigation costs Source IIASA 2007 V Additional data th Regions Ih Gases th Sectors gt Ih Scenarios lt Info Example of a fully flexible figure Page 11 of 15 This is the maximum flexibility you can get Please be aware you first have to choose whether you want to show the emission pathways per sector per gas per region or per scenario at the bottom of the figure If you choose to show the figure by region all contributions will be shown per region However if you choose to select the gases CH and CO at the same time these wi
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