Forecasting Tool User Manual (0-6766-P1)
Contents
1. sheet contains all the individual records and appends the skims for various modes along with the probability of choosing a particular mode for each of the records The INDIVIDUAL_MODE_SHARE sheet will provide the summary of mode share as shown in Table 4 Table 4 Individual Level Mode Summary war o SHAREDRIDE 6 ow 100 Now if the user chooses the option TAZ level estimates instead of Individual level estimates three sheets named TAZ HH INCOME DATA EST TAZ MODE SHARE and TAZ MODE SHARE FINAL will be generated The sheet named TAZ HH_INCOME_DATA_EST contains information on TAZ pair skims and mode availability The next sheet titled TAZ MODE_SHARE contains mode share for each TAZ pair for all possible combinations of household size and income For example if the model has three household categories and three income categories nine combinations will be formed and mode share for each combination will be reported in the sheet TAZ MODE_SHARE Finally the sheet TAZ MODE SHARE FINAL reports the weighted mode share To obtain the actual mode share simply multiply the total trips going from Origin TAZ to Destination TAZ This completes the mode share calculation Next we discuss the scenario package of the tool which allows the user to obtain mode share given a specific set of changes such as change in in vehicle travel time etc Running the Scenario Module To run the s2. 615 5 02 1734 3 39 7 22 IH 7 432 3 55 DE 6 5 15 07 3 42 16 73 483 36 334 45 075 2 05 441 2 73 5 35 42E 517 213 x 7 LE a 343 3 84 3 71 13 46 2135 763 505 8 5 537 5 31 5 51 IT 17 07 2 3 17 6 1 52 7 a1 3 18 3 69 271 195 52 12 13 5 05 2 17 324 al OE LE EET 71 18 LEEK 1 ar EE LE 33 EE SE ILT 1 bird di FR Eb 2 40 a Da 1 15 433 1 14 5 de de La Figure 3 Empty Colored Cell Upon identification of any type of unreasonable value a message will pop up asking the user to correct the value The program will not run until everything is corrected Now assuming that data in all the input sheets has passed the data consistency check a new sheet named OVTT_DA will be generated by the program containing the value of out of vehicle travel time for the Drive Alone mode for each of the TAZs depending on the TAZ area type Now depending on the data availability enter in the Individual level estimates or TAZ level estimates option cell and click button CLICK FOR MODE SHARE 3 This button will generate the mode share output files Please note that all the output sheets which are program generated will have pink tabs Assuming that the user provided the individual level trip distribution data and chose the option Individual level estimates two files named INDIVIDUAL RECORD EST and INDIVIDUAL_MODE_SHARE will be generated reporting mode choice probability and total mode share The INDIVIDUAL_RECORD_EST
3. Single member Household is j d 2 1 25 3 Average Bike Speed mph 40 Pie eae ar 4 Average Walk Speed mph 10 3 1 00 Household Size two or three 5 Transit Fare dollars LI 4 1 00 Household Size four or more Nadera Ana Cia 4 Household Annual Income Less than 20K is 6 he base category 7 Number of Passengers in Car for Shared Ride 2 I Income between 20K and 50K o osse os o 8 Maximum Walk Time min 60 Income greater than 50K o os oss7 o o7s 9 Maximum Bike Time min 60 In Vehicle Travel Time Min o 0 000 0 000 0 389 o E Out af Vehice Travel Time Qi Is o 0 0500 137 11 Put 1 you want to limit the availability of Walk mode based on maximum walk time 1 o os os oz o 19 Put 1 you want limit the availability of Bike mode based on maxinmm Bike time 0 o o o oos o 13 14 Individual level estimates 1 15 TAZ level estimates 0 16 17 Number of Alternatives 5 18 Number of Explanatory Variables Including Constants 9 19 Create TAZ Configuration 0 20 TAZ Level Mode Share Estimate 0 21 22 23 24 25 Household Category 3 26 Income Category 3 27 28 Scenario Alternative Related Variables 1 29 Reduce Transit IVTT by Percentage 80 30 Increase Drive Alone IVTT by Percentage 80 31 Increase Drive Alone OVTT by Percentage 5 32 33 34 35 y INPUT INDIVIDUAL RECORDS TAZHHINCOMEDATA IVTTDA AREA TYPE DISTANCEDA IVTT TRANSIT OVITTRANSIT DISTANCETRANSIT DISTANCEBIKE DISTANCEWAI
4. the availability of Bike mode based on maximum bike time Make this 1 1f you want to limit the availability of Bike mode based on maximum bike time during mode share calculation otherwise enter 0 Make this 1 1f you want to run the individual level estimates This is Individual level applicable only when the user provides individual level trip estimates distribution data in the sheet named INDIVIDUAL RECORDS otherwise enter 0 Make this 1 1f you want to run the TAZ level estimates This 1s applicable under any circumstance because TAZ level household information is available readily from the Texas Package However only one of the two options should be enabled at a time Alternatives equal to the number of alternatives provided in the model Number of Explanatory Variables Provide the number as mentioned Including Constants Create I Make this if you want to create a TAZ TAZ skim configuration Configuration Provide the number of household category used in the model 1 e household classification based on household size Provide the number of income category used in the model 1 e Income Category RE household classification based on income range Scenario Alternative Make this 1 1f you want to obtain the mode shares under the scenario Related Variables change option Reduce Transit IVTT Provide a number to reduce transit in vehicle travel time bya certain in Percentage percentage Enter only a numeral do n
5. walking time to the nearest bus stop for the corresponding TAZ TAZ_HH_INCOME_DATA This sheet accepts the travel distance matrix for Transit mode 1 TAZ TAZ travel distance This sheet accepts the travel distance matrix for Bike mode 1 e DIe ke NEE DEE TAZ TAZ travel distance This sheet accepts the travel distance matrix for Walk mode 1 e DIA LE TAZ TAZ travel distance Please note that all the skims sheets IVTI DA DISTANCE DA IVTT_TRANSIT OVTT_TRANSIT DISTANCE_TRANSIT DISTANCE_BIKE and DISTANCE_WALK should be symmetrical the number of rows should equal the number of columns If the sizes for all the skims sheets are not same the program will return an error message In cases where no DISTANCE_TRANSIT transit service is available between any TAZ pair simply provide a value of zero in the corresponding cell However for Drive Alone the user must provide a non negative in vehicle travel time and travel distance value Table 2 provides the area classification codes Please note that the area classification provided here is an example of the many classifications used by various metropolitan planning organizations MPOs Users can choose any classification based on their requirements Table 2 Out of Vehicle Travel Time Based on Area Type Area Type Classification Code Ma Ee Ural Time deed eed A ZE Travel times used by the Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization CAMPO INPUT She
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8. K Ir READY EH LINE EE 100 Input Requirements Table 1 provides the name and the type of data required for entry into the input sheets Table 1 Sheet Name and Data Requirement Sheet Name Description Functionality User needs to provide the mode choice model and various other INPUT inputs as mentioned in the sheet refer to Table 3 for a detailed discussion If user has the individual level trip distribution records provide them in this sheet in the format specified at the top of the sheet INDIVIDUAL_RECORDS This sheet accepts the TAZ level household split in percentage based on household size and household annual income refer to the sheet in the tool for a sample input IVTT DA This sheet accepts the in vehicle travel time matrix for Drive gt Alone mode 1 e TAZ TAZ in vehicle travel time This sheet accepts the area classification indicator variable for each TAZ refer to Table 2 for area classification code This is AE Zi used to calculate out of vehicle travel time for the Drive Alone and Shared Ride modes This sheet accepts the travel distance matrix corresponding to the DISTANCE_DA shortest path travel time matrix for Drive Alone mode 1 e TAZ TAZ travel distance This sheet accepts the in vehicle travel time matrix for Transit A mode 1 e TAZ TAZ in vehicle travel time This sheet accepts the travel time to the nearest bus stop for a OVTT_TRANSIT TAZ in a matrix format 1 e each cell represents the
9. THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN CENTER FOR TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH 0 6766 P1 FORECASTING TOOL USER MANUAL Chandra R Bhat Megan Marie Hoklas Jun Deng Subodh Kant Dubey TxDOT Project 0 6766 A Generic Mode Choice Model Applicable for Small and Medium Sized MPOs DECEMBER 2013 PUBLISHED AUGUST 2014 Performing Organization Sponsoring Organization Center for Transportation Research Texas Department of Transportation The University of Texas at Austin Research and Technology Implementation Office 1616 Guadalupe Suite 4 202 P O Box 5080 Austin Texas 78701 Austin Texas 78763 5080 Performed in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation and the Federal Highway Administration Table of Contents Mode hare ES alo ee rear ern Ru nn ns tn Sc 001195 Module iss esse RE ER AD ei oe Oe ee ee ae Some Lets BO EO on oe ER EE EE EE SE SE ee re IE EE GE OE Re EE EE GE GER ED GEE List of Figures Fienie 1 Porecastine Tool Input SE ee au Free 2 Emp Cell Mes ici Fisiie Je 21081 01 TC OO A ol as ii EE ei recitar List of Tables Table 1 Sheet Name and Data Regiment asse anne Table 2 Out of Vehicle Travel Time Based on Area Type ees ee ee ee Ee Table gt INDUI S ieor DEI ee een Table 4 Individual Level Mode SummarY esse sesse sesse EE ee ee AR ee ee ee AR Ee ee ee ee RE ee Introduction The Excel based forecasting tool allows users to provide a mode choice model along with various ski
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11. cenario module enter 1 for Scenario Alternative Related Variables and click the button SCENARIO RUN 4 Before you click the button make sure that you have made the appropriate changes to the options Reduce Transit IVTT in Percentage Increase Drive Alone IVTT in Percentage and Increase Drive Alone OVTT in Percentage Please do not provide a negative positive sign before the numbers Once you click the button SCENARIO RUN 4 the same sets of sheets with extension _SCENARIO depending upon option Individual level estimates or TAZ level estimates will be generated reporting the mode share under the changed scenario All the files generated with an extension SCENARIO have the same order of variables and meaning as their counterparts with no SCENARIO extension Some Useful Information At any point during calculation the user can shift from Individual level estimates to TAZ level estimates by placing 1 in the appropriate cell or vice versa However doing so invokes certain commands the next time when the user clicks the buttons the program will ask the user to delete the old sheet Click on the Delete option as shown in Figure 4 if the program asks you to do so and then re click the same button Accepting the Delete option removes any unnecessary files N You can t undo deleting sheets and you might be removing some data If you dont need it click Delete Figu
12. et Details Table 3 provides the detail of the main sheet named INPUT where users can change the value of various inputs Table 3 INPUT Sheet Detail Input Name Provide the total number of internal TAZs This number must not Number of TAZ i l exceed the size of skim sheet matrix EE Provide per mile gas cost for Drive Alone mode dollars Average Bike Speed Provide the value of average bike speed Generally a value of 11 mph mph is used by various MPOs Average Walk Speed Provide the value of average walk speed Generally a value of 3 mph mph is used by various MPOs Transit Fare dollars Provide the transit fare applicable to the area under analysis Provide the total number of area classification used in the analysis Number of Area Classification This number should exactly equal the number of rows in the Area Type Wait Time table see Figure 1 or refer to this sheet in the tool Provide maximum walk time acceptable to the user It is used to min determine the walk availability between TAZ pairs Maximum Bike Time Provide maximum bike time acceptable to the user This figure is used min to determine the bike availability between TAZ pairs Input Name Put 1 1f you want to limit the availability of Walk mode based on maximum walk time Make this 1 1f you want to limit the availability of Walk mode based on maximum walk time during mode share calculation otherwise enter 0 Put 1 1f you want to limit
13. ms in vehicle travel time out of vehicle travel time travel distance and travel cost in order to calculate the mode share at both the traffic analysis zone TAZ level and individual level It also has the capability of obtaining the mode share given any change in the model explanatory variables such as in vehicle travel time out of vehicle travel time etc via the tool s scenario module Input Figure 1 shows the main INPUT sheet of the tool the red tab the single input sheet tabs appear along the bottom To make the tool user friendly all the sheets in the tool are named according to their functionality The user needs to appropriately fill in all 11 sheets to run the tool In contrast to the main INPUT sheet the single input sheets have green tabs see Figure 1 Figure 1 Forecasting Tool Input Sheet H 9 ur Copy of SubodhMacrol Copy Excel ca x FILE HOME INSERT PAGE LAYOUT FORMULAS DATA REVIEW VIEW DEVELOPER Sign in VM E 2 Record Macro TY ae M Properties Map Properties js Import IB S L Use Relative References it E mil lt A View Code 72 Expansion Packs Export Bo Visual Macros i Add Ins COM Insert Design i Source i Document Basic A Macro Security Add Ins Mode Run Dialog tefresh Data Panel Code Add Ins Controls XML Modify A K36 Ei fe v A 5 8 E F 6 LE i Number of TAZ 20 Area Type Wait Time P 2 Per Mile Gas Cost in dollars 0 25 1 1 50 Household Size
14. ot add a positive negative sign at the beginning or the sign at the end Provide a number to increase Drive Alone in vehicle travel time by a TAZ level estimates Household Category Increase Drive Alone IVTT Gn Percentage certain percentage Enter only a numeral do not add a positive negative sign at the beginning or the sign at the end Provide a number to increase Drive Alone out of vehicle travel time by a certain percentage Enter only a numeral do not add a positive negative sign at the beginning or the sign at the end Increase Drive Alone OVTT in Percentage The user must also provide values for the Area Type Wait Time table located between the main input listing and the parameters table as shown in Figure Do not change the position of any input item as doing so may cause problems during calculation Mode Share Estimation With everything set proceed to the four buttons that appear underneath the parameters table on the main INPUT page The buttons need to be clicked sequentially from 1 to 4 First click the button REFRESH ALL 1 This button s function is to remove any sheets left from previous runs After this click the button CLICK TO CHECK DATA 2 It checks for lack of data consistency such as empty cells inappropriate value etc and warns the user if any are found prompting the user to address any inappropriate values For ease in handling a message will pop up desc
15. re 4 Delete the Old Sheets Also you will need to enable the Macro option available in Excel in order to run this tool By default when you open the tool 1t will ask you to enable the Macro Please accept the option If the macro enable option does not pop up in the beginning follow this procedure ad id gt Click the Microsoft Office Button and then click Excel Options gt Click Trust Center click Trust Center Settings and then click Macro Settings gt Enable all macros not recommended potentially dangerous code can run Click this option to allow all macros to run This setting makes your computer vulnerable to potentially malicious code and is not recommended TIP You can open the macro security settings dialog box from the Developer tab in the Ribbon which is part of the Microsoft Office Fluent user interface If the Developer tab is not available click the Microsoft Office Button and then click Excel Options Click Popular and then select the Show Developer tab in the Ribbon check box
16. ribing the problem along with the sheet name and the corresponding cell in the sheet will be colored green for easy identification For example Suppose that the first cell in the sheet IVTT_DA is empty When the user clicks the button CLICK TO CHECK DATA 2 a message will pop up see Figure 2 and the program will be terminated The user now can go to the corresponding sheet find the empty cell highlighted with green as shown in Figure 3 change the value accordingly and re click the same button Empty Cell Warning There are 1 Blank Cells in the VTT_DA sheet Microsoft Excel Figure 2 Empty Cell Message HI MEE PA LAIA ECOS DATA BIYI N Va LOA San a e Cale Ja AA ME E wT Genera EE p mema Bad Good manal Calculation Elo Ex fg Em gt Ae dl EE gt Fa Pr LE TE DE Corina Format check Cel IN A AR Sra ueber 7 feat HEET Humber iiti dei Al w A E it f L H J E A MA M a P R T LI Wi MA Y d AR Ab AL 1 non da 1 64 E J ba LY ERA La di Fri ad LEL 1 3 ELI al rm 14 18 T H id 10 89 FH Sas po 1 40 Bel LIFE dd 2 40 ry 4 06 u a a Hei 4 6 21 4 2 O 7 Fu Liz a rA A ei Pe ae 114 1 27 bh 5 19 LA di Hi el T Bid 11 3 La DOLOR ra 5 18 Far HO d kl 1 28 Wa Al 1 74 LE GEL 219 ER oh Gh P rr ar 1 55 14 1 1 0 PAN OE EN di 1 Lo ie a has di ia LET N Lh ed Q da LE BEN 5 0 ad LOLAS 3 73 DA Fa ARI did dad 17 08 1 32 EN Bak et 2 55 5 1 Eb 6 1 MS Ek DER BES E STT P
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