MIGRATION ESTIMATES - USER'S GUIDE -
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1. How to obtain more information Inquiries about these data and related statistics or services should be directed to Client Services Small Area and Administrative Data Division Statistics Canada Room 1306 Main Building Ottawa Ontario K1A OT6 Phone 613 951 9720 Fax 613 951 4745 saadinfo statcan ca Local Statistics Canada Reference Centres are listed on the last page You can also visit our World Wide Web site at http www statcan ca Toll free access is provided for all users who reside outside the local dialling area of any of the Regional Reference Centres National enquiries line 1 800 263 1136 National telecommunications device for the hearing impaired 1 800 363 7629 Order only line Canada and the United States 1 800 267 6677 National Toll free Fax Order line 1 877 287 4369 Standards of service to the public Statistics Canada is committed to serving its clients in a prompt reliable and courteous manner and in the official language of their choice To this end the agency has developed standards of service which its employees observe in serving its clients To obtain a copy of these service standards please contact your nearest Statistics Canada Regional Reference Centre 10 LIST OF DATA PRODUCTS AVAILABLE The Small Area and Administrative Data Division of Statistics Canada tabulates statistical data derived from administrative records most notably the taxfile The resulting demographic and socio economic d2. if appropriate Statistics Canada name of product catalogue number of product reference date of product The Licensee shall obtain approval from Statistics Canada before publishing any significant volumes of material extracted from the data product in any medium Any violation of this license renders it void and of no effect This agreement will terminate automatically without notice if the licensee fails to comply with any term of this agreement In the event of termination the licensee must immediately return the data product to Statistics Canada or destroy it and certify this destruction in writing to Statistics Canada WARRANTIES AND DISCLAIMERS This data product is provided as is and Statistics Canada makes no warranty either express or implied including but not limited to warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose In no event will Statistics Canada be liable for any direct special indirect consequential or other damages however caused ACCEPTANCE OF TERMS Itis YOUR RESPONSIBILITY to ensure that your use of this data product complies with these terms and to seek prior written permission from Statistics Canada for any uses not permitted or not specified in this agreement Any infringement of Statistics Canada s rights may result in legal action ANY USE WHATSOEVER OF THIS DATA PRODUCT SHALL CONSTITUTE YOUR ACCEPTANCE OF THE TERMS OF THIS AGREEMENT For further information please contact Licensing Se
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4. file used contains the basic demographic and geographic information on each taxfiler and dependent and covers approximately 95 of the total population The migrant taxfilers are identified by comparing current and previous Census Divisions or Census Metropolitan Areas of residence Taxfilers non filing dependents are assumed to have the same migration behaviour as that of the filer to whom they are assigned Step 4 Coverage Correction The final step in the estimation process is an adjustment for coverage done by age and gender at the Census Division Census Metropolitan Area level Population estimates by CD CMA are used to create coverage ratios In a few cases where coverage is abnormally high or low provincial adjustment ratios are used in place of the CD CMA ratio The adjustment ratios are applied to the counts of out migrants derived in Step 3 to obtain an estimate of total migration The basic assumption is that the population not covered by the taxation system has the same migration rate as that covered by it The estimates of international migration are prorated to agree with provincial estimates provided by the Demography Division of Statistics Canada Data Quality Based on a detailed evaluation of the estimates for the intercensal period of 1986 91 a number of observations can be made regarding migration estimates for Census Divisions a Overall the estimates of migration are of good quality It is however difficul
5. indicated the estimates of international migration were too low For the period from 1981 82 to 1984 85 migration estimates from tax records were produced twice a year the first time using a preliminary tax file from the Canada Customs and Revenue Agency available with a 6 9 month time delay and the second with a more complete tax file available with a 12 15 month time delay Because the differences between the two sets of estimates were not large beginning with the 1985 86 estimates only one series of estimates was produced The final file has been used since 1985 86 Beginning with the 1981 82 estimates the data on immigration and emigration have been prorated to make them consistent with the most currently available estimates produced at the provincial level by Demography Division of Statistics Canada Two data series are produced to accommodate data updating done by Demography Division l Preliminary Estimates 15 18 month time lag The international component is prorated to the preliminary estimates of international migration provided by Demography Division and 2 Final Estimates 27 33 month time lag The international component is prorated to the final estimates of international migration provided by Demography Division while the counts of internal migration remain unchanged Each of the above estimates is identified in any tabulations by using the letters P preliminary and F final SECTION II THE DATA TABLES N
6. of movement by Canadians as well as immigration and emigration flows to and from Canada The data tables are updated on a yearly basis Migration estimates by CMA are available only since 1992 93 SECTION I THE DATA Data Source The migration estimates are derived from a comparison of addresses from individual income tax returns for two consecutive years The period of reference extends from April of one year to April of the following year A summary of the methodology is provided later in this document Timeliness Migration estimates are available by Census Division from 1976 77 and by Census Metropolitan Area from 1992 93 Preliminary data on international migration and final data on internal migration are normally available from 15 to 18 months after the income tax deadline Final data on international migration are produced 12 to 15 months after the preliminary data Note that only the international portion of the migration figures are subject to revision An Outline of the Methodology The data developed from the taxation records are estimates of migration flows between Census Divisions or Census Metropolitan Areas by gender and broad age groups under 18 18 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 and 65 and over Starting with the 1996 97 data estimates are produced for 1996 Census Division boundaries For 1992 93 through to 1995 96 the data were produced for 1991 Census Division boundaries For the 1986 87 through 1991 92 period the Census Di
7. relationship between the dollar value of the total personal exemptions claimed and the number of dependents A reference table was established relating an estimate of the average number of dependents by age group and gender to filers in a given age gender marital status total personal exemption class This table was produced each year using a sample file of taxfilers containing information on the exact number of dependents and their relationship to the filer in addition to the characteristics of the filer Other demographic information such as gender ratios and the age distributions of husbands and wives were also used to distribute dependents by age and gender The current system uses the estimation of taxfilers dependents from the T1 family file T1FF The family system creates families by linking all filing family members together and estimates non filing members from information on the taxfilers returns based on such information as deductions tax credits for dependents For example the family system imputes a non filing spouse wherever a filer has declared him herself married but was not linked with a filing spouse 1 see report Description of the Methodology Used to Create Migration Data from Tax Records updated by Judy Reid Small Area and Administrative Data Division February 1998 See Lucaciu Daniela and Shelley Harris Overview of T1FF Processing SAADD 1994 Step 3 Migrant Taxfilers and Dependents The main source
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9. MIGRATION ESTIMATES USER S GUIDE Statistics Canada product number 91C0025 Extracts from these statistical data may be reproduced for individual use without permission provided the source is fully acknowledged Users are not authorized to transfer or redistribute any part or version of these data in any medium whether it be in their original form or in a modified form except as approved under a distribution agreement with STATISTICS CANADA The prior written permission of STATISTICS CANADA is required for any other form of publication or distribution Use of these data is acknowledgment that the user will be bound by the terms of the data licensing agreement which forms part of this documentation see next page Small Area and Administrative Data Division Statistics Canada saadinfo statcan ca September 2001 Aussi disponible en francais END USE LICENCE AGREEMENT COPYRIGHT The Government of Canada Statistics Canada is the owner or a licensee of all intellectual property rights including copyright in this data product In consideration of your payment of the requisite fee you or your organisation as the case may be hereinafter referred to as the licensee are granted a non exclusive non assignable and non transferable licence to use this data product subject to the terms below This license is not a sale of any or all of the rights of the owner s TERMS OF USE 1 All copyright and proprietary notices and all
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11. atabanks available are listed in the table below along with their identifying product number and the usual release dates Product number _ Release date RRSP Contributors 17C0006 November RRSP Contribution Limits Room 17C0011 December Canadian Savers 17C0009 November Canadian Investors 17C0007 November Canadian Investment Income 17C0008 November Canadian Taxfilers 17C0010 November Charitable Donors 13C0014 December Neighbourhood Income and Demographics 13C0015 July Economic Dependency Profiles 13C0017 July Labour Force Income Profiles 71C0018 July Families 13C0016 July Seniors 89C0022 August Migration Estimates 91C0025 August Postal Area Profiles 89C0021 September 11 REGIONAL REFERENCE CENTRES The Advisory Services Division of Statistics Canada provides an information dissemination network across the country through nine regional Reference Centres Each Reference Centre has a collection of current publications and reference documents that can be consulted or purchased along with microcomputer diskettes CD ROMs maps and other products Copying facilities for printed materials are available on site Each Reference Centre provides a wide range of additional services On the one hand the Dissemination Services a free telephone inquiries line for the most recent basic data On the other hand Advisory Services identification of your needs establishing sources or availability of data consolidation and integration of data co
12. gration Movement between two Census Divisions or Census Metropolitan Areas located within the same province The CD CMA of departure is the CD CMA of AvriginGAnd the CD CMA of arrival is the CD CMA of Alestination Migration Movement between two geographic areas during the period covered by the estimates Within Canada the geographic area of reference is the Census Division or the Census Metropolitan Area Other countries are considered as one geographic area Net migration Difference between the number of in migrants and the number of out migrants Out migration Movement out of a Census Division or Census Metropolitan Area to elsewhere inside or outside Canada WE INVITE YOUR COMMENTS We are always working on ways to improve our products The comments we receive concerning quality and presentation are essential to meet this objective If you have any suggestions in this regard we encourage you the user to provide us with your comments Data in many forms Statistics Canada disseminates data in a variety of forms In addition to publications both standard and special tabulations are offered Data are available on the Internet compact disk diskette computer printouts microfiche and microfilm and magnetic tape Maps and other geographic reference materials are available for some types of data Direct online access to aggregated information is possible through CANSIM Statistics Canada s machine readable database and retrieval system
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14. ory as origin with the given CD CMA as destination The second row lists the province or territory as destination with the given CD CMA as origin The third row shows the net migration for the given CD CMA with the province or territory This is done for each province or territory Tables B and C Age Group Type of Migration and Gender Both Tables B and C list in out and net migration for the highlighted CD or CMA for a five year period Table B gives the age groups of migrants Table C shows migration by type interprovincial intraprovincial and international migration see glossary and also gives the figures for type of migration by gender Note to Tables A B and C Provincial totals provided include intraprovincial migration Table D Flows by Census Division Census Metropolitan Area of Origin Destination For each Census Division or Census Metropolitan Area Table D gives details of the flows for that CD or CMA That is a list is given of the CDs or CMAs with which the selected CD or CMA exchanged any people Note that the major flows are ranked in the table by net migration The flows for the past five years are shown on the printed tables though the ranking is according to the most recent period SECTION III GLOSSARY OF TERMS Census Division CD Refers to the general term applying to counties regional districts regional municipalities and five other types of geographic areas made up of groups of Census Subdivision
15. rvices E mail licensing O statcan ca Marketing Division Statistics Canada Telephone 613 951 1122 R H Coats Building 9 floor section A Fax 613 951 1134 Ottawa Ontario K1A OT6 Canada O Statistics Canada 2002 TABLE OF CONTENTS PRODUCT LICENCE AGREEMENT ooocococononononononononononononononononononononononononononononononononononininininineness 1 INTRODUCTION 22 ES aL E da eat Le edo e CS SE eo cdo 1 SECTION T TAE DATA sd to oda 2 DataSet 2 SPUIME LIMES S50 95 ba lr tdci isla E 2 An Outline of the Methodology iio aida inci ana oben ire eian ends 2 IA A ice le Bude wesc odie eae cle te AO Ae teed a 4 Py ala Duis di 5 SECTION U THE DATA TABLES cuan ads 6 Data Table Contents iaa 6 SECTION III GLOSSARY OF TERMS ooococcccccononononononononononononanononononononanananananananananananacananinananans 8 WE INVITE YOUR COMMENTS eecssss cscsslotuctiats sistecsdaeeacens aa an a aa Anaa a aa 10 LIST OF DATA PRODUCTS AVAILABLE cococononononononononononononononononononononononononononononononininineness 11 REGIONAL REFERENCE CENTRES cococonononononononononononononononononononononononononononononononononononeninineness 12 11 MIGRATION ESTIMATES FROM TAX RECORDS FOR CENSUS DIVISIONS CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREAS INTRODUCTION This report presents migration estimates by Census Division CD and or by Census Metropolitan Area CMA Five year comparisons as shown on our printed standard tables enable users to see the pattern
16. s In Newfoundland Manitoba Saskatchewan and Alberta the term describes areas that have been created by Statistics Canada in cooperation with the provinces as an equivalent for counties Census Metropolitan Area CMA The general concept of Census Metropolitan Areas CMA is one of a very large urban area together with adjacent urban and rural areas that have a high degree of economic and social integration with that urban area Emigration Movement from an area in Canada to another country Gross migration flow Sum of the number of migrants between two geographic areas It is obtained by adding the number of in migrants to the number of out migrants Immigration Movement to an area in Canada from another country In migration Movement to a Census Division or Census Metropolitan Area from elsewhere inside or outside Canada Internal migration Movement between two Census Divisions or Census Metropolitan Areas within Canada Internal migration is divided in two categories interprovincial and intraprovincial migration International migration Movement between an area in Canada and another country International migration is divided in two categories immigration and emigration Interprovincial migration Movement between Census Divisions or Census Metropolitan Areas located in two different provinces The province of departure is the Aprovince of origin nd the province of arrival is the Aprovince of destination Intraprovincial mi
17. t to make exact comparisons to other annual estimates of migration flows at the Census Division level The estimates of net migration have been used to produce population estimates and these have been compared to the 1991 Census counts The average absolute difference for 1991 was 2 3 In 12 of 182 cases 6 the deviation exceeded 5 and in 3 cases the deviation exceeded 10 this does not include Quebec Census Divisions These deviations are smaller than those obtained from other estimation methodologies and indirectly indicate the quality of the net migration data It has not been possible to do much evaluation of the flow data 3 Montgomery March 1993 p 15 B In addition to the estimates of migration based on tax records Demography Division of Statistics Canada also produces estimates of interprovincial migration which are based on Child Tax Benefit records The concepts underlying these estimates differ from the concepts used in the tax based estimates More specifically the Child Tax Benefit data estimates monthly moves while the tax data tracks annual moves No comparable study has yet been done to examine the CMA coverage Availability of Data Migration estimates are available by Census Division from 1976 77 and by Census Metropolitan Area from 1992 93 For the 1976 81 period no preliminary migration flows between Census Divisions were calculated Adjustments were not made at the international level although evaluations
18. umber of Tables There are four standard data tables each with a five year comparison of migration Table A By Province of Origin Destination Table B By Age Group Table C By Type of Migration and Gender Table D Flows by Census Division of Origin Destination or by CMA non CMA of Origin Destination Note A five year comparison is not always possible for Census Divisions due to boundary changes over time This five year comparison was not possible for Quebec nor for some Census Divisions in British Columbia due to major Census Division boundary changes beginning in 1992 93 and based on 1991 Census Divisions and again in 1996 97 based on 1996 Census Divisions For these areas comparable data are provided according to the old boundaries up to and including 1991 92 or 1995 96 and according to the new boundaries since 1996 97 Data Table Contents Table A By Census Division or Census Metropolitan Area of Origin and of Destination Each page of this table highlights flows in out and net flows for a specific province a specific Census Division CD or any one of the 26 Census Metropolitan Areas CMAs including non CMA areas for each province Thus the flows between the provinces as well as between CDs and CMAs are shown The name of the CD or CMA for which the table is reporting appears in the upper left corner along with the CD CMA number and the province in which it is located The first row of column one lists a province or territ
19. vision boundaries corresponded to those defined in the 1986 Census For the years 1981 82 to 1985 86 the boundaries used are those defined in the 1981 Census and in the previous years the 1976 Census boundaries are used Migration flows for Census Metropolitan Areas are available only since 1992 93 and the boundaries of the 26 CMAs are based on 1991 Census definitions for the period 1992 93 to 1995 96 Beginning with the 1996 97 estimates the CMA boundaries are based on 1996 Standard Geographic Coding The development of these data involves four main steps 1 geocoding of tax records 2 estimation of non filing dependents of taxfilers by age group and gender 3 identification of the number age group and gender of migrant taxfilers and 4 adjustment for the population not covered by the Canada Customs and Revenue Agency Taxation system Step 1 Geocoding The geographic coding of Census Divisions and Census Metropolitan Areas on the tax records is done primarily on the basis of the postal code which is part of the mailing address In some cases other pieces of information were used in place of a missing postal code Since the 1989 tax files over 99 of the records could be assigned a Census Division code Step 2 Estimation of Dependents Since the source file has no direct information on the number and characteristics of non filing dependents this information must be imputed Up to the 1987 88 period this was based on the
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