Final Handicapping Process Series Part 1
Contents
1. In this Initial Assignment step the 2 horse must be in Group 1 because it is the favorite Since we need at least 3 horses in Group 1 if we were just looking at this handicapping factor we would be inclined to include the 2 3 and 6 horses in Group 1 as our initial assignment the 1 and 4 horses in Group 2 and the 5 horse in Group 3 We exclude 8 and 7 Once again this is after looking at only one factor The initial assignments should actually be made considering all five of the handicapping factors listed earlier Once again this subject will be covered in more detail in Part 2 of the Handicapping Process Series At this point we have separated the horses into one of three groups based on these class speed compound pace and comprehensive factors Movement Between Groups Now we will consider moving horses up or down between groups based on the following considerations Suitability We determine if the horse will like the distance and surface of the race We use the ALL Ways Spot Play Final Process Handicapping Report or the ALL Ways Suitability Handicapping Report to see the horse s record for these specific types of races We also like to see a Top 10 BRIS Speed Performance on the ALL Ways Top 10 Ranking Handicapping Report for a race on the same surface Pace ALL Ways designates a Race Pace Shape for the race being handicapped There are four possible Race Pace Shapes They are Lone Early Fast Ho2. Frandsen Publishing Presents Favorite ALL Ways Newsletter Articles Handicapping Process Series Part 1 of 6 Toolbox vs Black Box Handicapping Plus Isolating the Contenders and the Most Likely Horses to Win A critical element of striving for profitable play is the absolute need to develop a personal organized and efficient handicapping process that neatly coordinates with the wagering decisions that must be made This is the first in a series of six articles including a wrap up article that covers how to develop an effective handicapping process in a simple logical step by step manner This Part 1 of the series discusses the important differences in Toolbox handicapping versus Black Box handicapping It also covers important early handicapping tasks of identifying all the horses having a legitimate chance to finish in the top 4 positions and the 3 or 4 horses with the best chance of winning the race Some Background Previously as part of the Favorite ALL Ways Newsletter Articles series Frandsen Publishing published a five part Wagering Series that focused on how best to integrate handicapping and wagering decisions to reach and sustain profitable play A critical element of striving for profitable play is the absolute need to develop a personal organized and efficient handicapping process If you have not read the articles in the Wagering Series we suggest you at the least read the series wrap up in Part 5 It
3. Beginning in the 1990 s and continuing to this day a number of handicapping software programs have been introduced in the market Some of these were considered to be black box software programs This means that everyone using the program obtained exactly the same handicapping results In other words you and everybody else using the software were expected to play the horses selected by the software without any personal interaction in the handicapping process It is like saying Don t confuse me with the facts Just show me which horses to bet Here is why this approach does not work If the black box software selections are good and the results profitable word would spread like a wild fire and handicapping professionals and syndicates all over the world would begin using the software The result would be greatly reduced payoffs with profits turning to losses Such is the nature of pari mutuel wagering In pari mutuel wagering you are not playing against the house like playing slot machines in a casino Instead you are playing against all the other handicappers playing the same races like playing poker This is a very important distinction because it means if you do a better job of handicapping than the other players you can make a profit at their expense You are not playing for the tracks money You are playing for the money bet by other handicappers who are your competitors And these competitors may be sitting across
4. Ways software as contenders It displays and compares these horses side by side b Then we add any horse not already selected that ranks in the top 3 of the BRIS Late 2 3 factor as shown on a number of different ALL Ways handicapping reports including the Search Handicapping Report The Late factor is the sum of BRIS Final Fraction BRIS Speed The 2 3 notation indicates the figure is the average of the horse s best 2 out of its last 3 races for the factor Horses with good BRIS Late ratings have a good combination of speed and closing ability down the stretch We have found that these BRIS Best Late 2 3 horses account for many surprise top 4 finishers c Then we add any horse not already selected with a recent within last 120 days Top 10 BRIS Speed performance as shown on the Top 10 Ranking Handicapping Report d Then we add any horse not already selected that is designated by ALL Ways software as a Dangerous Non Contender This Step 1 only takes a minute or two In most cases only one or two horses are added to the contenders as a result of steps b c and d above Sometimes there are no additions to the list of contenders Sometimes in very very contentious races 3 or 4 horses may be added Overall we are generally working with 4 to 6 horses in 8 to 10 horse fields and 6 to 8 horses in 12 horse fields Keep in mind that this first step simply gets rid of horses we believe have no chance of finishing in the top 4 finish position
5. is a good summary of how to reach profitable play and it includes a powerful one page Reference Sheet that you can take to the track All past ALL Ways Newsletters as well as a Major Topic Index are posted on both the BRIS and Frandsen Publishing Web sites and they are always free Also articles already published as part of the Favorite ALL Ways Newsletter Article series are posted in the Newsletter Section on the Frandsen Publishing Web site and they are free as well See the links at the end of this article For Non ALL Ways Users Even if you do not currently use ALL Ways software you will still gain helpful insights from this Handicapping Process Series A number of ALL Ways handicapping factors are used in this article to illustrate the handicapping process concepts that are discussed These concepts travel well and can be used effectively with handicapping information from other sources such as the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances If you do want to try ALL Ways software as you follow this Handicapping Process Series of articles please see the box near the end of this article for how to do so Handicapping Process Series Introduction The goal of this five part series is to help develop a personal handicapping process that efficiently takes advantage of advanced handicapping information Important Reminder Your primary handicapping job is to identify in advance the two out of three ra
6. the horse as a Dangerous Non Contender DNC ALL Ways software users can set a Preference item that instructs ALL Ways software to use normal or tight criteria for designating Contenders and DNC s A tight setting results in fewer horses being designated than a normal setting We recommend new ALL Ways software users start with the tight setting Developing Your Personal Handicapping Process We are about to explore a process that works well for this author handicapper We are not proposing this as a universal process that will work for everyone However discussing this process will give you some ideas for developing your own personal handicapping process We reference a number of different ALL Ways software handicapping factors and a number of ALL Ways software handicapping reports These factors and reports are explained in Appendix B and Appendix C respectively in the ALL Ways User Manual Note If you prefer to learn only one handicapping report in ALL Ways the Spot Play Final Process Handicapping Report can be used as an excellent stand alone handicapping report Step 1 Isolate all legitimate candidates having a chance to finish in the top 4 This must include the favorite This is perhaps the area where ALL Ways software saves the most time Here is the process we use to carry out Step 1 a We start with the ALL Ways Contender Summary Report This report shows only the horses designated by ALL
7. Step 4 Identify the two horses most likely to beat the favorite Step 5 Identify a good Key Horse and Step 6 Making final handicapping decisions It is titled Key Decisions Part 4 It is easy to make the effort of developing a personal handicapping process harder than it needs to be Part 4 of the series provides ideas that are helpful for making good progress with less hassle It is titled Getting Unstuck Part 5 Along the way it is helpful to objectively evaluate how well the developing handicapping process is working and to identify ways to improve the process This is the subject of Part 5 of the Handicapping Process Series It is titled Feedback Part 6 This part not only wraps up the Handicapping Process Series but also ties the handicapping process back to the comprehensive five part Wagering Series previously published by Frandsen Publishing The wrap up article includes a powerful one page Handicapping Process Reference Sheet that you can take to the track The Wrap Up Reference Sheet has been added at the end of this Part 1 article so as you progress through the full series you can see how the individual steps evolve into the overall handicapping process That is probably enough of an introduction Let s get started with Part 1 Toolbox vs Black Box Handicapping Toolbox handicapping is good Black Box handicapping does not work Let s explore this a bit
8. action Speed These two factors are weighted averages They look at the last four races run by a horse calculate the factor value for each individual race and then calculates an average of the four values giving the most weight importance to the more recent races The figures are a good measure of improving or declining form If the horse is coming off a layoff the Spot Play Final Process Handicapping Report also shows us how the horse has done after a similar layoff It also shows us the powerful seconds per furlong workout information Summary At this point we have completed Step 1 by narrowing down the field to just the horses we feel have a legitimate chance to finish in the top 4 finish positions We have completed Step 2 by isolating the top three or four horses we feel might have a chance to win the race including the favorite They are in Group 1 Furthermore we have identified the remaining horses that have a good chance of finishing in the money putting them in Group 2 and we have identified marginal horses that at this point we cannot ignore and placed them in Group 3 We have made very good progress to carry out the final four steps of the Handicapping Process specifically Step 3 Classify the favorite as legitimate vulnerable or false Step 4 Identify the two horses with the best chance of beating the favorite Step 5 Select a good Key Horse Step 6 Make our final handicapping decisions What s Next C
9. andicapping factor lists showing all of the horses in ranked order for each factor There are five factors on which we focus for our initial assignments They are BRIS Class BRIS Speed 2 3 BRIS Combined 2 3 BRIS Early Pace BRIS Final Fraction BRIS Prime Power Rating ALL Ways Comprehensive Rating Reminder The 2 3 notation indicates the figure is the average of the horse s best 2 out of its last 3 races for the factor These factor lists make it easy to see where there are gaps between horses in each list Generally horses above a gap go into a higher group than horses below the gap This whole subject will be covered in more detail in Part 2 of the Handicapping Process Series titled The Keystone of the Process For now here is an actual example of a race run at Churchill Downs to show what we refer to as a gap This shows the horses listed in ranked order for the ALL Ways Comprehensive Rating A significant gap difference for this factor is 4 to 5 points ALL Ways Comprehensive Rating Prog Horse Name Rating Morning Line 2 Diplomatic Code 38 6 5 3 The Stig 29 12 1 6 Excitable 26 8 1 1 Part of My Family 23 3 1 4 Tenpin Alley 22 10 1 5 Sherlock 18 5 1 8 Lucky Sass 14 15 1 7 Apache Honor 9 15 1 Note that horses shown in bold print are ALL Ways designated Contenders Horses with an asterisk in front of their names are ALL Ways designated Dangerous Non Contenders The horizontal line indicates a gap
10. ces that are not won by the crowd favorite and to identify the two non favorite horses most likely to beat the favorite Here are the six sequential steps that are part of an effective handicapping process Step 1 From the full field of horses isolate all horses having a legitimate chance to finish in the top 4 Include the favorite Step 2 Isolate the top 3 or 4 candidates to win the race Include the favorite Step 3 Classify the favorite as legitimate vulnerable or false Step 4 Identify the two non favorite horses most likely to beat the favorite Step 5 Identify a non favorite Key Horse Step 6 Make final handicapping decisions Here is what is planned for this five part Handicapping Process Series Part 1 This introduces the concept of Toolbox Handicapping and covers Step 1 Isolate all horses having a legitimate chance to finish in the top four finish positions and Step 2 Isolate the top 3 or four horses most likely to win the race This will provide a good starting point for developing your handicapping process Part 2 The process discussed in Part 1 for isolating the top 3 or 4 horses most likely to win the race is the Keystone of all our handicapping efforts So Part 2 focuses more on this subject and also completes Step 3 classifying the favorite as legitimate vulnerable or false It is titled The Keystone of the Process Part 3 This part covers the remaining handicapping steps which are
11. data file that you can use to explore the concepts presented in the Handicapping Process Series ALL Ways Newsletter Handicapping Process Series Reference Sheet Full Field of Horses y Isolate All Contenders for the Top 4 Finish Positions v The Keystone Step Initial Assignments Assign to a Group based on speed class compound pace and comprehensive ratings using the concept of Gap Advantage v v v Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Top 3 or 4 In the Money Marginal Win Candidates Horses Candidates Includes Favorite Final Assignments Move horses between groups based on suitability to surface distance the pace scenario form factors and situational changes from past performance races to today s race Group 1 Group2 Group 3 Top 3 or 4 In the Money Marginal Win Candidates Horses Candidates Evaluate the Favorite Decide which group you would now assign the favorite If Group 1 Legitimate Favorite If Group 2 Vulnerable Favorite If Group 3 False Favorite Key Decisions Decide Pass or Play the Race Remember The Curse of the Legitimate Favorite Select Select a 2 Non Favorite Key Horse Win Candidates Copyright 2010 Frandsen Publishing Corporation Copyright 2010 Frandsen Publishing Corporation All Rights Reserved Email FrandsenPublishing Comcast net Web Site www frandse
12. integrate it into your personal handicapping process BRIS users have an advantage over non BRIS users ALL Ways software users have a distinct advantage over non ALL Ways software users With that said let s start developing a handicapping process We start by quickly reviewing some of the fundamental elements of ALL Ways software ALL Ways Fundamentals ALL Ways software automatically creates handicapping profiles made up of the best combination of handicapping factors for each specific type of race at each specific track you play ALL Ways software uses the appropriate handicapping profile to handicap each specific race We recommend new ALL Ways software users download and use the free track specific handicapping profiles from the Frandsen Publishing Web site until they have built up 200 to 300 or so races in their ALL Ways Race Database for the track s they play When you have 200 to 300 races you can let ALL Ways software take over and automatically create and maintain update the profiles in your computer Using these Handicapping Profiles ALL Ways software generates a win percent probability for each horse and a corresponding odds line for the race ALL Ways software then identifies the horses it believes to be the primary contenders in the race Then ALL Ways software looks at the remaining horses to see if there is a reason to look further at any of these non contenders If it finds such a reason ALL Ways software designates
13. n com Phone 952 937 9180 Frandsen Publishing Corporation is the publisher of the quarterly ALL Ways Newsletters which are widely considered to be one of the best sources of handicapping and wagering insights available in the industry And ALL Ways Newsletters are FREE These newsletters are posted on both the BRIS and Frandsen Publishing Web sites All articles that are part of the Favorite ALL Ways Newsletter Article series are available on the Frandsen Publishing Web site All Newsletters and Major Topic Index Frandsen Publishing is also the developer of ALL Ways Handicapping Software ALL Ways is serious software for professional and serious horseplayers Phillips Racing Newsletter calls ALL Ways Software absolutely the best free handicapping tool on the market and gives ALL Ways a 9 rating the highest ever awarded And ALL Ways Software is FREE More about ALL Ways Software Bloodstock Research Information Services and Frandsen Publishing Corporation are pleased to provide ALL Ways Software ALL Ways Newsletters and the Favorite ALL Ways Newsletter Articles series all for FREE brisnet com k i Bloodstock Research Information Services
14. nest and Slow Here we evaluate the likely impact the pace scenario in the race will have on each individual horse In races with a Race Pace Shape designated by ALL Ways software as Lone Early we evaluate the lone E or EP horse to see if we believe it will be competitive For Race Pace Shapes of Fast we downgrade any E horse that figures to not get the lead and we elevate closers P and S horses who figure to be in touch at the 2d Call In Honest pace races we elevate the Best Early and the Best Late running horses shown on the ALL Ways Search Handicapping Report Since Frandsen Publishing first introduced the pace handicapping concept of Race Pace Shapes several years ago it has been widely acclaimed as one of the most innovative powerful and practical pace handicapping methodologies ever published For a comprehensive discussion of Race Pace Shapes please see the ALL Ways Favorite Article Series article in the Newsletter section of the Frandsen Publishing Web site See the link at the end of this article Form We do a number of things to evaluate a horse s form First we look at the ALL Ways Past Performance Report to visualize how the horses have finished in their recent races Second we use the ALL Ways Spot Play Final Process Handicapping Report to look at the Weighted BRIS Total Rating BRIS Early Pace BRIS Speed and the Weighted BRIS Late Rating BRIS Final Fr
15. oming Up Handicapping Process Series Part 2 of 6 The Keystone of the Process Part 2 of the series expands on what we believe to be the Keystone of every successful handicapping process It expands on the subject of how to isolate the 3 or 4 horses with the best chances of winning the race and it covers how to classify the crowd favorite as either legitimate vulnerable or false If we do a good job in the Keystone part of the handicapping process all our other choices in the remainder of the process have a good chance of being effective For Non ALL Ways Users If you ever thought of giving ALL Ways software a try now is a great time to do it This will let you follow this Handicapping Process Series to gradually ease into the use of ALL Ways software while at the same time developing a personal profitable handicapping and wagering process We suggest new ALL Ways software users visit the What s New Page on the Frandsen Publishing Web site and click the link to Getting Started With ALL Ways When you are there we suggest you print and read the short paper on How ALL Ways Works and also note the options presented for a Fast Track approach an Accelerated Track approach and an As You Go approach Note that you can download ALL Ways Software for free from the Free Software Page on the BRIS Web site When you install the software it automatically includes a sample race card
16. s Step 2 Isolate the top 3 or 4 candidates to win the race This also must include the favorite At this point in Step 1 we isolated all the horses we feel have a chance to finish in the top 4 finish positions As we now explain Step 2 we will see that it not only achieves the goal of the step which is to narrow down the choices to just those horses we believe have a chance to win the race but that it also sets us up to make effective decisions in Steps 3 through 6 which we will cover in Part 2 and Part 3 of this Handicapping Process Series What we do is to classify each of the top 4 finish position candidates from Step 1 into one of three groups Group 1 Includes all the candidates we believe have a chance to win the race Group 2 Includes all the other candidates that we believe have a good chance of finishing in the money Group 3 Includes the remaining candidates horses we believe are somewhat marginal but that we should not ignore at this point in the process Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Top 3 or 4 Win In the Money Marginal Horses Candidates Candidates Includes Favorite Remember that horses we believe do not have a chance to finish in the top 4 finish positions are not in any of these groups Also a horse can only be in one group at a time Here is how we determine the group to which we want to assign each horse Initial Assignments The ALL Ways Top 10 Ranking handicapping report includes 16 different h
17. the room from you or in another room at the same facility or at a simulcast facility across the country or nowadays at his or her computer at home taking advantage of on line account wagering ALL Ways software was designed with all this in mind We wanted ALL Ways software to be a toolbox full of effective handicapping tools We wanted ALL Ways software users to be able to select the ALL Ways software tools that best fit their interests and style of play and integrate the selected tools into their personal handicapping process ALL Ways handicappers doing the best job of selecting and integrating the tools would achieve the best handicapping results ALL Ways software is not the only toolbox out there All the handicapping products available from BRIS can certainly be considered as a giant box of effective handicapping tools Nobody uses every one of BRIS products and no one uses every one of ALL Ways software tools either You select the tools that work best for you Here is some strong advice we would like to impart as we begin this Handicapping Process Series e Do not shy away from advanced handicapping information It is this advanced information that will give you an edge If you do shy away you will be left behind because the best of your competitors will be using it e Strive to obtain as much unique information as possible It is not how much information that is important It is how unique the information is and how well you
Download Pdf Manuals
Related Search